1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,400 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for Bloomberg 7 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: Opinion Today. We're joined by Near Cassar, columns for Bloomberg Opinion, 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: founder also of Union adviser's asset management firm. Uh. He's 9 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: on the phone from Washington, d C. Near, Thanks so 10 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: much for joining us here. You and your colleague Tim 11 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: O'Brien from Bloomberg Opinion out with a really interesting column 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: here talking about the pay disparity within corporate America. It 13 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:45,640 Speaker 1: seems like CEOs are having uh seeing you know, rising 14 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 1: incomes year after year after year in terms of their 15 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 1: total compensation, but reck and find employees not so much. 16 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: What'd you find right, Well, I think I think CEOs 17 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: um have a real problem on their hands because you 18 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: know what or what we're finding out from the data 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: is that we have millions, millions of workers in America 20 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 1: that are just not making a living wage. You know, 21 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: there are a number of reliable living wage calculators UM 22 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: that are there, available to anyone with internet connection, and 23 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,480 Speaker 1: they all basically say the same thing, which is, in 24 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: the cheapest places in America, a family requires about sixty 25 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: to seventy thousand dollars a year to just pay for 26 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: basic necessities, and probably double that in expensive places like 27 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,199 Speaker 1: San Francisco and New York. And yet millions of workers 28 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: are making a fraction of that. So people are getting up, 29 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: going to going to work, uh, and just not able 30 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 1: to afford the basic necessities of life. And it just 31 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: seems to me that that's just inherently sustainable situation and UM, 32 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:41,560 Speaker 1: and I think it's something that that corporate chief should 33 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 1: be more concerned about. Yeah, even in normal times near it. 34 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: It seems like that's something that would be obviously something 35 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: they should be caring about, but clearly they don't. Can 36 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: you tell us some metrics and why it should be 37 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,040 Speaker 1: very obvious to leaders at the business round table that 38 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 1: it's not good enough for the richest country in the world. Yeah, Well, 39 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, there are there are a number 40 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: of um, there are a number of metrics that we 41 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: can point to UM. A lot of it comes from 42 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: a few years ago. UH the SEC in the US 43 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: basically past the regulation that required companies to disclose UM 44 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 1: their their pay ratio, in other words, the pay of 45 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:21,680 Speaker 1: their CEO relative to their workers. And this created a 46 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: trope of data around what what the median worker is 47 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: actually making it many of these public companies, and what 48 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: we're finding is, you know, the depending on you know who, 49 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,239 Speaker 1: which companies you put in the category, the media numbers 50 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: can be anywhere between you know, twenty thousand dollars a 51 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: year on the low end of forty thousand dollars a 52 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 1: year on the high end, But there's somewhere in that range. 53 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: The median pay for full time workers, for example, on 54 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: Amazon is roughly thirty six thousand. At Walmart, which also 55 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 1: includes part time workers, is roughly twenty two thousand. So 56 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: you know, in in many of these cases, what you're 57 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: seeing is the salary are are wholly inadequate to what 58 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: actual Americans actually need to put food on the table. 59 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,079 Speaker 1: So near worst, you know, where's organized labor in all 60 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 1: of this, I mean, this has been an issue we've 61 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: seen you know, employee UH incomes, earnings take home earnings 62 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 1: kind of flat to declining on a real basis for decades. 63 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: Here is this reflective of the decline of unions in America? 64 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: You know, that's a good question because a lot of 65 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: people want to know why this is happening, and the 66 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: truth is, we don't really know. We don't know exactly why. 67 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: There are some popular theories, all of which have some merits. 68 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,640 Speaker 1: One is the weakening of labor unions. That's clearly something 69 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: that's driving this. Some people point to lower productivity growth 70 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: in the US over the decades and that that is 71 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: keeping wages down. Some people point to shareholder primacy, the 72 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: idea that companies should really exist for the benefit of 73 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: shareholders and not necessarily their customers, employee suppliers and the like. 74 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: And the last one is automation. A lot of some 75 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 1: people are pointing to audition and saying, you know, there's 76 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: been a bifurcation of jobs. High skilled jobs are getting 77 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: higher wages. Low skilled jobs are just falling off a 78 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: cliff in terms of wages, and that that's driving this. 79 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: But you know, one thing that I would note is 80 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: I don't know that the why really matters so much 81 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: as the identifying the problem and finding a way to 82 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: fix it, because ultimately it's hard to imagine a scenario 83 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: where healthy economy can sustain itself. Like I said, when 84 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: you have millions of people who aren't just not making 85 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: a living, so obviously, you know, you would hope near 86 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: that the round table will read this opinion beast by 87 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 1: yourself and Timothy O'Brien. But if they were too busy, 88 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,559 Speaker 1: let's say, or if they said they were too busy, 89 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: and you had to distill it into a point or 90 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: two for them, what would that be. Well, you know, 91 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: I would say to them that that many of the 92 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: things that they're worried about, and they if you appear 93 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,000 Speaker 1: to be worried about a host of social and political issues, 94 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: what I would say to them is a lot of 95 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: those issues are informed, are set, and in some cases 96 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: triggered by the fact that you have so many people 97 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: in this country that aren't making a living, and that 98 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 1: you know they are sitting on record profitability. It's not 99 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: as if they can't afford to raise wages, and that 100 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: that would be a good investment not only in their 101 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,799 Speaker 1: own workers, but also in the health of the country. 102 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 1: Um and in many and indeed in many of the 103 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: issues that they care about. This is something they can 104 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,239 Speaker 1: do something about. This isn't almost entirely within their control. 105 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 1: It would have enormous positive knock on effects. And uh, 106 00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: and it's a good place for them to start, is 107 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 1: what I would say. Well, near on the other side 108 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: of the equation is CEO pay And we've heard about 109 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: this for years about CEO pay is just you know, going, uh, 110 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: it's just out of control. Is there any way to 111 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: get a rain on that? Or is it just not 112 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: really that much? You know, I guess political will for that. 113 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's sort of it's an interesting question, 114 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: and it's sort of strange because, um, you know, on 115 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: the one hand, it's not a good look for ceo 116 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 1: s to make you know, in some cases a thousand 117 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: times with their median worker makes you know, in any 118 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: the averages are roughly two to three two three four 119 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:58,680 Speaker 1: under time, um, but in some cases there are more 120 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: than that. On the other hand, that alone is not 121 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 1: going to fix the problem because if you just take 122 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: the CEO pay and distributed it to all the workers 123 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: in the company, it's probably not going to bring them 124 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: up to a living wage. So, you know, I would 125 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: say I would say that we first have to start 126 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 1: with a substantive problem, which is, I think companies have 127 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: to say, we're gonna use some of our profits. We 128 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: invest in many things as company, we should invest in 129 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: our workers. We have the profits to do it, and 130 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: we should do it. But I think also CEO should 131 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,279 Speaker 1: think about the optics of what they're um. Their paycheck 132 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 1: looks like in you know, in the tens of millions 133 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,479 Speaker 1: of dollars relative to what their workers make, and I think, 134 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: just as a matter of good let's just call it 135 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: public relations, I think that they ought to be more 136 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:41,559 Speaker 1: careful about having a pay ratio that is a little 137 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 1: bit more reasonable. It used to be a lot lower 138 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: in the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties, and it's just 139 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: skyrocket in the interweeding decade near Do you see inequality 140 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 1: changing in any way in terms of you know, percentages 141 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: and so on in the coming years, And if not, 142 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: when is breaking point? Well, you know, I'm worry that 143 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing breaking point now. And you know, if I 144 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: might say this, this I think is really this should 145 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: really come to everyone's attention. Based on these conversations that 146 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: policymakers about are having about bailout. We're having these conversations 147 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,119 Speaker 1: about whether you know workers are getting the the the 148 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: relief uh that that Congress is putting together is so 149 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 1: much that it's disincentivizing people to work. And what that 150 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: really should be telling people is that the relase is 151 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 1: meant to put food on the table while COVID is 152 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: going on UM and if that number is higher than 153 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: what people are making on their job, then we have 154 00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 1: a fundamental problem. And and I and that coupled with 155 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: a lot of the protests that you're seeing, like I said, 156 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: many of them fed by UM, by these low wages, 157 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: and in some cases instigated by the low wages, I 158 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: think that should be a signal to us that we 159 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: are pretty close and that we should do something about 160 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 1: this before before you know, the fire gets higher. Yeah. Near, 161 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: It's a point well taken and spoken about often these days. 162 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: Near Casar and Timothy O'Brien have written a wonderful Bloomberg 163 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:11,559 Speaker 1: opinion piece today. It's called Corporate Chieftains Can Talk Less, 164 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 1: pay More. Sure those a lot of people, especially in 165 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 1: the work of ranks, that would hardly agree without even 166 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: reading it, But I do urge everybody to read it. 167 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: Our thanks to Near Casar of Bloomberg Opinion. Fascinating story 168 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: I found on the terminal this morning, UH, with the 169 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:32,199 Speaker 1: headline busted retailers used bankruptcy to break leases by the thousands. 170 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 1: The authors with us right now. Cat Doherty, high yield, 171 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: distressed debt and bankruptcy reporter for Bloomberg News. Cat, thanks 172 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. You know, I'm in 173 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 1: the city today as first, one of the first times 174 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 1: I've been here since March, and I'm just shocked by 175 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: the number of empty stores and stores for rent where 176 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 1: I know back in March, the last time I was here, 177 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: they were thriving retailers there, at least I thought they 178 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: were thriving. But your story is just amazing. They're using 179 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: bankruptcy in certain cases to break the leases. Tell us 180 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: about that. Yeah, that's right, um. And a lot of 181 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: these retailers that have filed, we should note that they 182 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:12,559 Speaker 1: were experiencing troubles even before the pandemic. Um, So companies 183 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: like Jay Crew, Neiman Marcus, they were already on a 184 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: lot of investors watch list, Um, But the pandemic was 185 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: really the point that pushed them towards the bankruptcy court 186 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: and they've used the bankruptcy court and all of the 187 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: the laws and the negotiation power that they have with 188 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: the judges permission to get out of these leases. UM. 189 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: But we've seen major retailers UM at least twenty five 190 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 1: of note UM, including Men's Warehouse, UM, the parent tailored 191 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 1: brands which filed recently UM, and also J. C. Penny. 192 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 1: So what we're seeing is these companies that were experiencing 193 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: financial strains UM and also seen their brick and mortar 194 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: stores UH Clothes UM and and trying to figure out 195 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: how to get out of these leases. So bankruptcy basically 196 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:18,320 Speaker 1: gives them a quicker option UM, and it allows them 197 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: to cut these leases or renegotiate with their landlords if 198 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: they're able to get a lower rent. It seems like 199 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 1: everything about this pandemic has been set up for creditors benefits, 200 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,319 Speaker 1: because if you look at these retailers, they were they 201 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: were headed for the exits, right they were. I mean 202 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:39,199 Speaker 1: it was it was going to be a difficult, protracted, 203 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,439 Speaker 1: you know, maybe effort, but many of them are going 204 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 1: to go away under this scenario. Some of them have 205 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: even got P P P loans in order to help 206 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: them through the bankruptcy process, and their creditors also don't 207 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: end up with the you know, the rest of the 208 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: lease to pay up or whatever that that would add 209 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: to the discussions or the negotiations. Am I reading that right? 210 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 1: So it really depends on the situation UM. These A 211 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: lot of the main retailers UM that we've been focused 212 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 1: on did not actually receive PPP loans UM. Some of 213 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: the smaller ones have. But UM as you as you note, 214 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: these retailers were already kind of UM on a on 215 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: a fine line UM and and could have filed for 216 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: bankruptcy even without the pandemic. Uh So, the the closures 217 00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 1: UM that are tied to these bankruptcy is a lot 218 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: of it is because we're just seeing less folks shopping 219 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,480 Speaker 1: in store, and that was happening even before you had 220 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: UM stay at home orders. So now that companies have 221 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: filed a big part of their plans for reorganizing is 222 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: which stores UM can we close down, which leases can 223 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: we get out of? And on the note of what 224 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: the creditors are getting, a lot of them are becoming 225 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 1: the owners of these companies. A lot of them are 226 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: able to negotiate so that they can get an equity 227 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 1: stake where they will eventually take over and can in 228 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: some cases also UH dictate who in management is staying, 229 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: who in management leave is leaving. Uh. They basically get 230 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: a larger seat at the table. So kind we got 231 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: about thirty seconds here. It seems like the landlords are 232 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: holding the bag here. What's their recourse? It's a it's 233 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: a good question. Often they don't have as big of 234 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: a recourse or or any recourse in bankruptcy. UM. But 235 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: I've also seen situations where retailers will go to their 236 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: landlords and say, hey, look, we need to renegotiate. If 237 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 1: we can't get a lower rent, or if we can't 238 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: get out of these costly leases, we're going to be 239 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: forced to file, or we're going to choose to file. 240 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: So it's up to you what you want to do 241 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: with that information. That is a strategy that I think 242 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: will will continue, um, even when the stores start to reopen. 243 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: There's a bit of a test case in the course 244 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: as well. Isn't there a pull between Starbucks and some 245 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 1: other retailers, And I think it's yet to be decided. 246 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 1: He really is going to be left holding the bat 247 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 1: absolutely all right, Katherine, Thank you Katherine Dougherty covers all 248 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: things really credit related, bankruptcy related, retail related these days, 249 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 1: all the fun stuff, and boy has she been busy. 250 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 1: Katherine Dougherty with a K on your Bloomberg or at 251 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Paul, you know, there's going to be many, 252 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: many years of stories that will emerge from this pandemic. 253 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: It's going to be a bit like the financial crisis, 254 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: where in you know, five years later, you're still discovering things. Yeah, 255 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: I think the economic impact here, what we're hearing from 256 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: a lot of economists, it's it's certainly not a v 257 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 1: and it's going to be a very long recovery here 258 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 1: on the back end of this. Yeah, we should suggest 259 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: not just financially, but also personally as well. The toll 260 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: will be a long time coming. Well, as we know now, 261 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: ammonium nitrate equivalent to eight hundred tons of T and 262 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,959 Speaker 1: T was unloaded from a cargo ship back in two 263 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: thousand and fourteen out of port just on the side 264 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:15,599 Speaker 1: of Lebanon. The major city in Lebanon now in devastation, 265 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: and we want to bring in I'm in camel to 266 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 1: talk to us a little bit about what happens next. 267 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 1: Obviously you know deaths and injuries and serious loads on 268 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: the emergency departments in the entire country. But I'm in now. 269 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: We have the French president, you know, on his way 270 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 1: to Beirute, and it's just really interesting because is he 271 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: welcome there? I think so. I think it's a humanitarian 272 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: catastrophy that the world hasn't seen for very for for 273 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 1: many years, and it's I think for the Lebanese people, 274 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: it's good to see that France is interested in supporting 275 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: the people. I think to visit UH is symbolic in 276 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: many ways, but the destruction, I think anyone that has 277 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,240 Speaker 1: seen the picture, I think across the world will will 278 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: feel some level of sympathy here, even though there are 279 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: many incompetent government officials that have basically been the reason 280 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: why we have this crisis in the first place. Just clarify, though, 281 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: what is the point in the former colonists visiting Lebanon 282 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: if it's not to come with aid and even unconditional 283 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: aid about no, I think I would divide it up 284 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: into two. I think the human human here and aid 285 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: is coming, that that will happen, that is happening for 286 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: many nations in the international community at large, regional countries 287 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: as well. Everyone is supporting that aid effort. But I 288 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 1: think here France is willing to do its part in 289 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: terms of eight but it will be conditional of on 290 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: the Lebanese government doing reforms. That is really when we're 291 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: talking about a non humanitarian aid, financial support, long term support, 292 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: and I think each country will have to decide up 293 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: decide on its own what what what its policy will be. 294 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: Diams has its own view of Francis or has its 295 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: own view in many Arab countries have their own requirements. 296 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: But the key thing is that there is a consensus 297 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: within the international community that they do not want to 298 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:30,000 Speaker 1: see any form of financial support over the long term 299 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: go into corruption, into corrupt network. They would like to 300 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: see some of this money end up in really use 301 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: constructing the reconstructing actually at this stage the Lebanese economy. 302 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: So I um, I've just over the last couple of days, 303 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 1: like many people, I've read a lot of social media 304 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: posts from Lebanese folks in Beirut and it's just the 305 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: rage they feel towards the corruption of the government is 306 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: just palatable. Is this an agent of change for in 307 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: the political structure of Lebanandi thing. Well, I think anger 308 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: is very legitimate the station most people are angry. I 309 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: think it is different this time. It will create the 310 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: seeds of some change in the political system. But really 311 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: the country in essence is still divided. Here. It is 312 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 1: divided amongst different religious groups. And although there is anger, 313 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 1: at the end, what really happens is each sectarian leader 314 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: blames another one from a different religious group and we 315 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 1: get into it an endless cycle of of blame. Really 316 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 1: not not a constructive approach. Real change in lebon And 317 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: I think we'll have to come through a new process 318 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: elections or or some real change in in in government, 319 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:50,080 Speaker 1: something in much more institutional The real opportunity will not 320 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: be will not happen now. I think it will have 321 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: to be a new team of parliamentarians that are able 322 00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 1: to equities, new voices in the Lebanese community. But society 323 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,119 Speaker 1: at large, I think even today is very divided. I 324 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: am who is Lebanon aligned with in the so called 325 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: Middle East these days? And and and and for real, 326 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,120 Speaker 1: I mean obviously there are so many you know, different 327 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: coalitions within you know government and in the country. But 328 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: in the main who is Lebanon alined with well, I 329 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,719 Speaker 1: think that's part of the problem. Lebanon isn't aligned with 330 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: anyone is aligned. There are parties in Lebanon that are 331 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: aligned with different countries in the Middle East, so the 332 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: state in many respects is not independent. Soon these are 333 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,560 Speaker 1: allied with Saudi Arabia, she has are allied with. You 334 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 1: want some Christians allied with France, and of course that's 335 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: that's to a certain extent and oversimplification of the reality. 336 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: But Lebanon as a state does not have a firm 337 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: policy of who it is allied with. The major problem 338 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:57,679 Speaker 1: in the last few years has been that his Bollah 339 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:03,719 Speaker 1: Lebanese Shia group has been indirectly involved in conflict in 340 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: many Middle Eastern countries. That has made Arab aids to Lebanon, 341 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 1: which which was always forthcoming, much more difficult. Uh. That's 342 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 1: part of the problem that we see today. Unless Lebanon 343 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: or his Balla becomes in some way more constrained, very 344 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: difficult to see international polities and regional towers as well 345 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: give robust support over the long term. I thank you 346 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,959 Speaker 1: so much for that. We appreciate your perspective and your 347 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: experience on that very dangerous and unsettled part of the 348 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: war world, which is obviously still reeling from that explosion. 349 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: I have Kamal Practice head Middle East and North Africa 350 00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 1: for the Eurasia Group, giving us his perspective there and Van. 351 00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 1: You know, having read a lot just over the last 352 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: couple of days about this explosion, you just get that 353 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,640 Speaker 1: background information about how difficult things are in that country 354 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: even before this catastrophe and this it's just, as I 355 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: am suggested, very fool to see some change there. It's 356 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: just heartbreaking. I mean, we don't concentrate on that part 357 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:07,199 Speaker 1: of the world enough. But the financial impact of this, 358 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: beyond the devastation that Lebanon was already feeling economic and financially, 359 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,920 Speaker 1: is just going to be decades in the undoing. Yeah, 360 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,960 Speaker 1: absolutely so, we'll certainly fall up on this important story. 361 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: But discussion we've had pretty often over the last several 362 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: months is why is the stock market going up when 363 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: the economy is in such peril? And Barry rid Holtz 364 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: had a great column on this and it really opened 365 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 1: my eyes to a lot of the math behind that. 366 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 1: Barry Ridholts Bloomberg opinion columnists and host of Masters in 367 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,879 Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio, also chairman and chief investment officer 368 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 1: of Ridholtz Wealth Management, Barry, your column was fascinating. Give 369 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: us kind of your key takeaways here As we try 370 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: to reconcile a strong risk on risky asset markets, including 371 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 1: the stock market, and an economy that's anything but sure, 372 00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 1: this is the one single question that bubbles up from 373 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: clients more than anything else. We don't understand the economy 374 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: is so terrible, how is the stock market continuing to 375 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 1: go up? So based on that constant question, we had 376 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: to come up with a good answer. And so first 377 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,000 Speaker 1: place you go to is dive into the data, and 378 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:22,360 Speaker 1: the data is pretty compelling. Some of the worst sectors 379 00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,240 Speaker 1: in the economy turn out to be really tiny as 380 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 1: a component of major indices like the SMP five hundred 381 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 1: or the NASDAQ one hundred. I'll give you a couple 382 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: of quick examples. Everybody knows department stores have been under 383 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: a lot of pressure before the pandemic. The lockdown just 384 00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:43,160 Speaker 1: made it worse. They're down sixty something percent for the year. 385 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 1: They're turn out to be one one of a percent 386 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 1: of the SMPI index. Airlines barely any bigger. They're a 387 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 1: quarter of a percent of the SMP five hundred, and 388 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: you work your way down some of the word performing 389 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: industry sectors hotels and casinos, travel services, oil and gas. 390 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: Just work your way down. If you take the thirty 391 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: worst sectors um subsectors of the SMP five hundred, if 392 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: we were to delist all of them tonight tomorrow morning, 393 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: it would barely shave two off the entire index. That's fascinating, 394 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: but very you know, that's one explanation. But the other 395 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 1: explanation is that this pandemic is not hurting the people 396 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: that that companies need, if you like, for the most part. 397 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 1: So yes, consumer companies, of course, But you know those 398 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: with wealth will continue to have wealth post pandemic, and 399 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: that's great for the stock market. Well yes, and no, 400 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 1: if if you look at the savings rate, it's gone up. 401 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 1: If you look at consumer spending, it's off the lows, 402 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,920 Speaker 1: but it's still down dramatically. I mean, the g d 403 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: P is off by a third. It's down um from 404 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: from quarter to quarter. So while wealthy people still have money, overall, 405 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 1: as an economy, we are spending much less money. We're 406 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 1: not going to entertainment, we're not going to the theme parks, 407 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: we're not going to movies or plays or concerts or 408 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 1: anything like that. We're not going out to eat, and 409 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 1: we're not shopping at retail, and so in terms of 410 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: the broad economy, a lot of these things they're not 411 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 1: publicly traded. If they are, they're very small relatively speaking. 412 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 1: But the disconnect is a form of denominator blindness. You 413 00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 1: see your local personal um economy and it's not doing 414 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 1: especially well. But most people's local personal economy is not 415 00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:53,879 Speaker 1: publicly traded. And where all the strength in the market 416 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: is coming from are the biggest companies, and these tend 417 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 1: to be global in nature. Take the ten biggest tech 418 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: companies in the smp fid UH. They're up thirty seven 419 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 1: for the year, and none of them are heard in 420 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,640 Speaker 1: because of of the lockdown. If anything, they're thriving. Look 421 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: look at Netflix, look at Microsoft, look at Amazon. They're 422 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 1: all doing really well because what other options do people have? So, Barry, 423 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,119 Speaker 1: you've been in the markets for a long time, how 424 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: concerned are you that there's really a lack of breath 425 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 1: in this market? As you're just highlighting here that if 426 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: you take a look at just the indices, it's literally 427 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 1: a half a dozen names or something driving most of 428 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: the performance. Technically, that's not a healthy UH component or 429 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,280 Speaker 1: healthy development for the market. So we we like to 430 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 1: see breath, meaning more companies participating in the upside the 431 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: advanced decline line. We want to see more advancers than decliners, 432 00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 1: and we want that to be significant. The exception being 433 00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 1: what happens when there's an externality and and really the 434 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: only thing that's comparable to the pandemic. Look at Fukushima, 435 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 1: Look at the tsunami in Japan, how that impacted their market. 436 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 1: You had specific sectors that just were temporarily on hiatus 437 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: until the country got back to normal six months later. 438 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,959 Speaker 1: This is probably gonna last much longer than that. Another 439 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: parallel is look at seven You had something that wasn't 440 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: from within the economy. You had portfolio insurance and a 441 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 1: lot of um internal problems that the stock exchange that 442 00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: led to the one day crash. It was really aberrational 443 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: and not driven by a weakening UM either employment or 444 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 1: GDP or retail spending or anything like that. It was 445 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 1: its own, its own externality. So I think we have 446 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 1: to look at this from a perspective. Investors are giving 447 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: UM the market sort of the benefit of the doubt 448 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 1: in terms of revenue and profits for this year. There 449 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: seemed to be looking over the valley towards UH and 450 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 1: everybody is hoping for a vaccine or a treatment before 451 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: the year's out, that that's going to be the big variable. Sorry, 452 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: we're almost at a time. But are you in Maine, pertense, No, 453 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: this year, I am not in Maine. And in fact, 454 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: when I went when I was preparing this column and 455 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 1: looking at various sectors, I looked at travel services and 456 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 1: airlines down as much as they were. And then I 457 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 1: went back and looked at all of the events, conferences, 458 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: speaking engagements, all that thing, those things I had, and 459 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 1: literally everything was canceled from March two thousand through June, 460 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 1: every event that I have scheduled. So makes perfect sense 461 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: that the airlines are getting hurt, the hotels are getting hurt. 462 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: They are not going to be able to recover until 463 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 1: people feel comfortable being in crowds again, and that's probably 464 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: lee a solid year away, right. Well, it's just that 465 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 1: because this would be the time of the year for 466 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: camp co talk David Kotalk camp and is it happening 467 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 1: virtually Barry Um. A handful of people went up, but 468 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 1: it's probably five percent of the usual crowd. Chris Whalen 469 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:19,440 Speaker 1: is up there. I know David Kotak is not there. 470 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: Normally I would be arriving yesterday, the Wednesday before the 471 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 1: Friday jobs report, and this is going to be the 472 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 1: first August jobs report that I will be seeing away 473 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: from the state of Maine in probably twelve years. It's 474 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 1: amazing how we we measure our years and things like 475 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:42,479 Speaker 1: Jackson Holes and camp Co talks and you know, souls conferences. Barry, 476 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 1: thanks for joining. It's always a fun time speaking with 477 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 1: Barry Riddles, founder of course of Riddles Oath Management. But 478 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: we know him maybe more so for Masters in Business 479 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 1: and also his Bloomberg opinion columns and Paul, you were 480 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 1: talking about his opinion column earlier. They always make some 481 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: kind of an impression. Yeah. Absolutely. This one kind of 482 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 1: broke down the math and really showed where the performance 483 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,440 Speaker 1: and lack of performances in this market. Thanks for listening 484 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 485 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever a podcast platform you prefer. 486 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 1: I'm Bonnie Quinn, I'm on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and 487 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before 488 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,440 Speaker 1: the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg 489 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: Radio