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Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show,

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Speaker 1: which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch

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Speaker 1: the show live this offseason, you can head to the

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Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern without further ado.

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Speaker 2: Here's this week's.

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Speaker 3: Episode, Welcome In.

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Speaker 4: Welcome In.

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Speaker 5: It's a Late Round Fantasy football show sponsored by DraftKings.

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Speaker 5: David Kitchen here alongside my pal, my friend, my employer,

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Speaker 5: the guy that I am currently in battle alongside JJ

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Speaker 5: Zach reeson JJ.

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Speaker 4: How's it going?

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Speaker 2: Well, what's up?

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Speaker 1: First off, I'm the one who just lost power right

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Speaker 1: before the show started, and I think you have the

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Speaker 1: wrong mic input right now?

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Speaker 4: Okay, Well, so I would.

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Speaker 1: I would at least make sure that because it sounds

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Speaker 1: like it's coming from your computer.

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Speaker 2: As opposed to the microphone right now. Okay, But no,

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Speaker 2: things things are hectic.

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Speaker 1: There's stuff going on in work life, there's stuff going

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Speaker 1: on in personal life. That's just a lot. So bear

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Speaker 1: with me as I navigate those things. If you're if

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Speaker 1: you're a member, if you're a listener, hopefully you know

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Speaker 1: in a few weeks things are.

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Speaker 2: Totally back to normal. But I know the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Feeds but been looking a little bit different with the

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Speaker 1: rewind episodes all that kind of stuff.

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Speaker 2: So bear with me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're does sound good? Okay, you sound good now? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: All right, yeah, I mean we are just all over

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Speaker 4: the place. And part of that is also because of

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Speaker 4: this humongous project we call the Draft Guide that will

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Speaker 4: release July tenth, so twenty four days until the Draft Guide,

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Speaker 4: and that gives a little bit of anxiety, but that's okay.

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Speaker 4: We are breaking this down and starting. This is going

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Speaker 4: to be unlike any other late round draft guide we

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Speaker 4: have had in the past. We'll say that, and it's

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Speaker 4: going to be really good. But also it means a

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Speaker 4: lot more kind of brain power and you know, stuff

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Speaker 4: that we're doing that we haven't done the past. We've

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Speaker 4: got brain adula helping us out. But thoughts on the

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Speaker 4: draft Guide.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So to give you guys an idea where I'm at,

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Speaker 1: I'm hopefully going to wrap up the wide receiver section

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Speaker 1: here soon and then move on to to talking some

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Speaker 1: tight ends and working on tight ends. But there's also

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Speaker 1: you know, a whole brand new area of that Draft

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Speaker 1: guide where I'm going to be kind of using you know,

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Speaker 1: in the past, I think we mentioned this last week

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Speaker 1: a little bit, But in the past it's been you know,

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Speaker 1: positional section and then your approach to this year positional section,

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Speaker 1: and then your approach to this year. This year, though,

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Speaker 1: it's more so bringing that all together and having a

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Speaker 1: more comprehensive approach to your drafts this season. That brings

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Speaker 1: together all of those different parts, right, And so like

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Speaker 1: you said, it's like laid out a little bit different.

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Speaker 1: There's brand new content in it, a lot new content

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Speaker 1: and needed kind of a refresh, and that's exactly what

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Speaker 1: you're getting in this twenty twenty six version.

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Speaker 4: Okay. And with that being said, we also have the

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Speaker 4: new website that you can go and become a member

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Speaker 4: lateround dot com. Also, you've become an All Access member

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Speaker 4: for one annual price and get both our Draft Guide

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Speaker 4: and our Rookie Prospect Guide that we do every year

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Speaker 4: and everything else that comes with our memberships, as far

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Speaker 4: as the discord the rankings that you get. So consider

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Speaker 4: becoming an All Access member if you haven't already. And

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Speaker 4: we want to give a shout out to our sponsor draftings.

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Speaker 4: We talk about the Dogo. I had someone message me

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Speaker 4: the other day say, I love Dogo. Is another marketing

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Speaker 4: guy for another company nice, And I said, well, we'll

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Speaker 4: just run with it. Then it's the draft one get

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Speaker 4: one promotion with DraftKings, and so you draft one, you

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Speaker 4: get a bonus entry and you can find that link

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Speaker 4: in the description of this podcast or video that you're watching.

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Speaker 4: So just know that it's a twenty million dollar contest

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Speaker 4: this year. And we've got the Becoming a Best Ball

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Speaker 4: bro series that is kicked off. We've got the live streams.

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Speaker 4: I'm actually going to be drafting a live stream tomorrow

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Speaker 4: and Thursday morning, so make sure you have notifications on

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Speaker 4: for this JJ. As far as the Best Ball scenes,

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Speaker 4: we're getting some news that are kind of affecting some

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Speaker 4: of these ADPs with Bestball.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure, you know, we're still waiting on some

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Speaker 1: guys to be signed and stuff. But yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: like this is, in my opinion, like this is a

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Speaker 1: really interesting time to draft basketball lineups, just because you're

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Speaker 1: going to find some good CLV some really good value

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Speaker 1: in guys that you're drafting late, just based on there's

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Speaker 1: still you know, a month and a half before things

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Speaker 1: like really get solidified or two months before things really

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Speaker 1: get solidified. So right now you can you can definitely

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Speaker 1: find some value out there hopefully, you know, like like

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Speaker 1: last year, you know, there was like the Keenan Allen

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Speaker 1: stuff that happened and he rose. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: Stephan Diggs right now is one that will eventually rise

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Speaker 1: in ADP once he signs.

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Speaker 2: But there's also some just like off the field stuff.

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Speaker 1: For there's you know, one player in particular who keeps

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Speaker 1: posting on Instagram that we'll probably get to. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, like I think it's a really interesting time

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Speaker 1: to draft basketball teams.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you said that, JJ, because we and

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Speaker 4: do indeed have to get to some news and notes.

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Speaker 4: Today's fantasy news. All right, it starts with some unfortunate

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Speaker 4: news out of New Orleans last week about the Cris

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Speaker 4: Salavea blood clots. Again, a lot of these, like some

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Speaker 4: of these injuries is just like, all right, I'm not

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Speaker 4: a doctor, like and I don't you know, I don't

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Speaker 4: pretend to be one, but you do kind of look

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Speaker 4: at people that are doctors to see what they're saying.

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Speaker 4: But what's your overall take on the Chris a lava

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Speaker 4: situation because his ADP is currently falling as well.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's serious stuff anytime you're talking you know,

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Speaker 1: blood clots or blood clot disorders.

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Speaker 2: Or whatever the case may be.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that the unfortunate side of this

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Speaker 1: is that we do have to react in probably a

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Speaker 1: slightly negative way.

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Speaker 2: I was kind of below market with a lave.

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Speaker 1: So I'll probably meet the market a little bit more

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Speaker 1: at this point as a result of this, because I

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Speaker 1: think that, you know, this is one of those things

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Speaker 1: where I feel like if it were a serious, serious

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Speaker 1: threat to his playing time, it would be a bigger

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Speaker 1: story and a bigger deal and that would have been

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Speaker 1: like released in some way. But it doesn't seem like

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Speaker 1: that's totally the case. This is a bigger but this

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Speaker 1: is like one of those injuries. It's like, okay, like, yes,

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Speaker 1: it sucks whenever these guys like break their ankles and stuff,

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Speaker 1: you know, or like have like a really bad you know,

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Speaker 1: acl tair or something like that. Like this is like

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Speaker 1: one of those injuries where it's it's not really injury,

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Speaker 1: it's it's a bigger, like just deal to his livelihood.

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Speaker 1: You know, Like obviously, you know, I'm not diminishing what

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Speaker 1: happens to an a with an acl tair or anything

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Speaker 1: like that, but this this is one of those things

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Speaker 1: where it's harder to speculate on because it's.

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Speaker 2: Not like we see this happen as like a football injury.

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Speaker 1: So my my, my general thoughts are, I hope a

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Speaker 1: Lave is good, hope he gets well. You know, he

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Speaker 1: went through the concussion stuff kind of last year before

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Speaker 1: the season started. You know, he stayed healthy, which was great,

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Speaker 1: and he ended up being a fantastic player for the

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Speaker 1: Saints last year, and I'm hoping I'm hoping.

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Speaker 2: For the same result this time around as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, the next one Rashie Rice Reed. I

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Speaker 4: almost went with Freed Rice on this one, but thirty

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Speaker 4: days thirty day jail sentence has been served, so well,

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Speaker 4: I guess we'll see now what happens as far as like,

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Speaker 4: you know, he had surgery right before he went to jail.

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Speaker 1: Did you did you see the video that came out? No,

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Speaker 1: So there's a video of him leaving jail, and there's

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Speaker 1: and there's cameras everywhere, right, there's people, a couple of

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Speaker 1: people like on camera, right, and he ran from them.

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Speaker 4: Which, hey, hey, it's a good sign, right.

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Speaker 2: You know, like like, you know, he seems like he

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Speaker 2: you know, he uh able to run a little out

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Speaker 2: route against the reporters or the camera people there, and

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Speaker 2: and just bolted into a black suv and he drove off.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, like hopefully everything's good. I I've

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Speaker 1: admittedly from look, I'm a I have to be a

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Speaker 1: fantasy analyst. I have to see what's going to be

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Speaker 1: best for our fantasy teams. I do think that in

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Speaker 1: a best ball environment, the dip has been substantial enough

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Speaker 1: to draft Orshi Rice uh, just because you know, we've

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Speaker 1: we've seen them use players in the past that had

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Speaker 1: questionable back slash he himself did. I don't think that

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Speaker 1: the newest issue of what happened, given what it was.

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Speaker 1: We said this whenever he was he was arrested again.

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Speaker 1: It's like the the thing that we're concerned about is

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Speaker 1: just like the mental state you got to be in

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Speaker 1: to like make that mistake, right, like to do that,

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Speaker 1: and to to you know, use weed, and and and

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Speaker 1: like when you know that you can't, like you just

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Speaker 1: cannot do that.

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Speaker 2: It's not really the thing that he did.

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Speaker 1: It's it's doing that when you knew that you were

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Speaker 1: on probation the way that you were. With that being said,

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Speaker 1: the actual crime for this is not something that the

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Speaker 1: NFL is like hammering down on at this point. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know if anything's really gonna come of that. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the original reason that he was on probation is horrible,

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Speaker 1: but you know, what he did this time around wasn't

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Speaker 1: wasn't as like bad from like how you know the

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Speaker 1: NFL might view things YadA, YadA, YadA. So with that,

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Speaker 1: I do think that he could just end up playing.

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Speaker 1: You know, he served his time. You just got to

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Speaker 1: hope that the rehab was okay. If you are drafting Rashi.

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Speaker 4: Rice, yeah, you know he's his ADP has fallen a

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Speaker 4: little bit as well, one of those guys. I wonder

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Speaker 4: if it will start climbing back up. Also, the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: this is not on here, but the Chiefs extended Patrick

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Speaker 4: Mahomes two more years. The thing. He's playing until like

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Speaker 4: twenty fifty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I mean Patrick Mahomes is never going

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Speaker 2: to retire.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but half a half a billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. The Rashi Rice stuff I think is different.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're getting Lso and Chad asking about, you know,

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Speaker 1: is when is the discipline issues becoming a thing as

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Speaker 1: super concerning for dynasty? Agreed, if you want to get

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Speaker 1: rid of him in dynasty, especially because I think in

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Speaker 1: dynasty you have kind of like a closer connection to

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Speaker 1: players in a way where it's like like you root

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Speaker 1: for them more. If you don't want to deal with this,

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Speaker 1: don't deal with it like you like, you know, like

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Speaker 1: sell them eighty cents in the dollar and just kind

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Speaker 1: of take your loss and kind of move on that

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Speaker 1: you didn't.

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Speaker 2: Sell him at the peak of where Rice was.

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Speaker 1: I do think that there's a very real chance that

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Speaker 1: it improves and where he's at currently in the dynasty

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Speaker 1: landscape improves.

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Speaker 2: But if you don't want to deal with it anymore,

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Speaker 2: don't deal with it.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's like an unreasonable way to approach

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Speaker 1: your own dynasty roster management, you know. But I do

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Speaker 1: think that he's going to play this year, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I think that Rashid Rice is probably an overrated player

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Speaker 1: when you look at his production and what he's done

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Speaker 1: in fantasy football versus how good he is as a player.

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Speaker 1: But I think that he's still in this system that

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Speaker 1: just is very beneficial for him to score Fantasy points.

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Speaker 1: And so that's how I'm treating it. And so with him,

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Speaker 1: like realistically, if there were no question marks about Rashi Rice,

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Speaker 1: he'd be a very firm middle round two pick, very

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Speaker 1: maybe even early round two. Yeah, right, And right now

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Speaker 1: on DraftKings, you can get him. I mean, he's fallen

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Speaker 1: to the late third because so because like that's a

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Speaker 1: lot of equity for what's been going on right now,

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Speaker 1: which is why I've been more okay drafting him. It

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Speaker 1: might butt me, but it might bite me, but I

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Speaker 1: do think that it's at least logical.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Next we have supplemental Sowsby Brendon Soresby. After all

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Speaker 4: that commotion, after all that drama, he's now back to

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Speaker 4: entering the NFL's supplemental draft. We haven't seen a guy

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Speaker 4: like him since who was Josh Gordon and somebody else?

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Speaker 4: Tyrrell Prior. I think I think I.

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Speaker 2: Saw that too, that's right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And so I think I saw that on on

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Speaker 4: Ryan McDowell. He wrote an article about this because this

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Speaker 4: is putting the NFL in flux, and it's also putting

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Speaker 4: all these dynasty leagues that have already drafted in flux too, Like,

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Speaker 4: what what do you do?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that if you because like ninety

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Speaker 1: plus percent of dynasty leagues I would imagine already had

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Speaker 1: their rookie drafts. Right, I'm a commission a couple of leagues,

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Speaker 1: and what I'm doing is I am saying no one

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Speaker 1: can and have soresby this year, and he can just

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Speaker 1: be added to the player pool next year. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: that might mean that he's the one to ozho three,

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Speaker 1: it might mean that he's the four h nine, you

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Speaker 1: know that that he just doesn't matter at all in

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Speaker 1: drafts next season. But the reason so I've seen a

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Speaker 1: lot of people talk about having him just be a

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Speaker 1: blind bid player right now. And the issue I have

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Speaker 1: with that blanket statement is that there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: deep dynasty leagues out there where multiple people will blow

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Speaker 1: all of their free agent budget on that singular player,

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Speaker 1: and I don't want the reward to be the tie break,

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Speaker 1: which is just waiver order, you know, to be able

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Speaker 1: to claim that guy. So instead the way that I'm

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Speaker 1: handling it, people might disagree, and that's fine. I don't

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Speaker 1: think there's a right answer. There's not a right right

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Speaker 1: so I know that people are like, oh, this is stupid.

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Speaker 1: You should be able to bid on them. Fine, if

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Speaker 1: you want to do that. I don't have a problem

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Speaker 1: with that. I'm just letting you know my logic. I

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Speaker 1: think that you wait till twenty twenty seven, and yes,

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Speaker 1: you're going to have a year of knowing how good

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Speaker 1: or bad he is, what team he's on, all that

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Speaker 1: kind of stuff. But at least there's an equal chance

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Speaker 1: of anyone wanting to trade up to get him, or

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Speaker 1: you know, just drafting him straight up, whatever the case

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Speaker 1: may be.

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Speaker 2: It's just a cleaner way of doing it, in my opinion.

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Speaker 4: Another solution. This was why I was reading the Ryan

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Speaker 4: mcdoll ad is or article is because he talked about

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Speaker 4: like a not just a blind bit system, but a

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Speaker 4: future pick. So just like the NFL will sacrifice the

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Speaker 4: future pick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah McDowell whatever that art, Like, I'm sure he's retweeted

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Speaker 1: or something. McDowell is the king of this kind of stuff, Like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: he gives three, he gives three possible solutions.

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Speaker 4: That number one yours number two? Okay, yeah, okay, it.

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Speaker 2: Was was was number one was number one. The free

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Speaker 2: agent budget, just like being able to bet on him

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Speaker 2: as a norm.

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Speaker 5: No.

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Speaker 4: Number one was the uh you supplement it with like

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Speaker 4: your draft picks, so someone could say, all right, I

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Speaker 4: will give up my third round draft pick next year

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Speaker 4: for this. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, yeah, there's there's a there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of ways to do it, but I would. I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: McDowell's awesome, and McDowell is now full time DLF.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, congrats to him for the retirement from his

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Speaker 4: teaching job and now he gets to be full time DLF.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And so, I mean, we love McDowell.

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Speaker 1: He's a he's a friend of the show, and so him,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's someone who's done commissioner stuff for years

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Speaker 1: and yeah, you know he's he's deeper into those kind

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Speaker 1: of dynasty weeds than I am. So I'm sure he

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Speaker 1: has better solutions than me. But the one that did

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Speaker 1: pop to mind for me, because it's the easiest as

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Speaker 1: a commissioner in my opinion, is just be like, Nope,

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Speaker 1: we're waiting until twenty twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: Too bad. This is just the way we're doing.

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Speaker 4: It in the league that you and I are in.

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Speaker 4: I got notification in the chat from the Siege shocker. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: DF former DFS player, and he was like, so are

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Speaker 4: we doing to suppintal draft like the NFL doesn't. And

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Speaker 4: I'm just like, as the commissioner, I'm just like, I

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Speaker 4: don't want I just don't want to deal with it

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Speaker 4: right now, you know. Just But there's also I wonder

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Speaker 4: like that that solution.

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Speaker 1: You know, of course you can say like I put

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Speaker 1: up a third, but how what if someone else has

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Speaker 1: a third?

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Speaker 2: Like how do you rule the tap?

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Speaker 4: Then you get I guess into figuring out I don't like,

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Speaker 4: I don't know, I don't know right that that solution is.

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Speaker 4: But there are teams that are also doing this. So

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Speaker 4: you've had, you know, people thinking that the Browns should

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Speaker 4: do it. You know, Brown's head coach is saying, not

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Speaker 4: really something I'm interested in. Our GM might feel differently.

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Speaker 4: Uh some people are saying the Eagles should with all

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Speaker 4: their picks that they have. Uh so one I saw yet, Yes, So.

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Speaker 1: I bet the Jets are favorites right now if I

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Speaker 1: were to look at I don't know what if a

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Speaker 1: sportsbook has if like DK has the odds or anything

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Speaker 1: like that, But I don't know. It's it's going to

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Speaker 1: be interesting from from my perspective, it seems like, like, look,

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Speaker 1: the one I cannot stand are the people who are like,

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Speaker 1: he could have been QB one in this class, Like,

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Speaker 1: let's let's slow down. I don't think that was going

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Speaker 1: to happen, But uh, could he have been QB two

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Speaker 1: in this class? You know, Like is that a reasonable

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Speaker 1: thing to I mean, maybe, but probably not because Simpson

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Speaker 1: went pretty high.

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Speaker 2: But QB three, yeah, I mean he could have been

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Speaker 2: a Day two pick without the off the field stuff.

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Speaker 4: Okay, we avoided some drama with George Pickens reportedly reporting

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Speaker 4: for mandatory mini camps. So good on George Pickens, and

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Speaker 4: we can just put this to bed right now, right JJ.

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Speaker 2: I don't know about that. We'll see, we'll see what.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes down with all that and

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Speaker 1: how much he practices, et cetera, et cetera. I will

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Speaker 1: say a lot of the trend stuff that I'm working

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Speaker 1: on for the Draft Guide does like George Pickens. I

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Speaker 1: also want to tease something else, and that is I

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Speaker 1: talked about market Score on a podcast episode a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: I've gotten a lot of feed from people.

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Speaker 1: About how we're talking about market Score and how we're

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Speaker 1: displaying market Score. And so next week my hope. Again,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of stuff going on, so things can change.

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Speaker 2: Don't hold me to this.

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Speaker 1: At least this next week or the week after, there's

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Speaker 1: going to be a new market Score episode because we're

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Speaker 1: changing the way that we're kind of approaching market Score

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Speaker 1: in multiple ways. We have a little bit different inputs,

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Speaker 1: you know. I kind of introduced the idea and said

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Speaker 1: this is kind of evolving, and it is, and it

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Speaker 1: evolved a lot based on your feedback because I think

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Speaker 1: the way that people were consuming market Score was not

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Speaker 1: necessarily the way we wanted people to consume market Score.

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Speaker 1: So our solution is to really approach this similarly as

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Speaker 1: a zapp score, and that's what we're going to be doing,

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Speaker 1: same zero to one hundred type scale and such. But

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be doing an episode on that's that

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Speaker 1: we're all on the same page with market Score. And

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Speaker 1: I bring that up because market Score really liked and

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Speaker 1: still does. I believe George Pickens and a lot of

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Speaker 1: the trends that I'm looking at for early round wide

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Speaker 1: receivers also like George Pickens because it's based on previous

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Speaker 1: season numbers.

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Speaker 2: It's not full proof, of course, but you.

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Speaker 1: Know last year he was really good, like very very good,

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Speaker 1: and so we need him to play because I do

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Speaker 1: think that he could be a value if if we

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Speaker 1: knew for sure everything was gonna be perfect for George Pickens,

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Speaker 1: and we haven't had this like very small sample, yes,

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Speaker 1: but like bad results of these players who were holding

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Speaker 1: out and such, I do think that that Pickens would

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Speaker 1: be a very easy click right now, there's just some ambiguity.

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Speaker 4: Okay, this was probably the biggest news that caught us

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Speaker 4: by surprise. Luca Evans, the reporter for the Broncos Denver Post,

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Speaker 4: got some posted a few nuggets it's Denver pun for you,

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Speaker 4: but one that R. J. Harvey suffered a torn labram

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Speaker 4: in that playoff game against the Patriots and had surgery.

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Speaker 4: And the other was that JK. Dobbins nearly had a

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Speaker 4: deal JAK Dommins had to deal with the Jags in

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Speaker 4: free agency near dunce Or said before Denver resigned him.

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Speaker 4: So I want your just your take on how this

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Speaker 4: affects this murky roller coaster field Denver backfield.

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Speaker 1: So I believe it was Jeff Mueller, and if it's not,

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Speaker 1: I apologize to whichever.

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Speaker 4: I'll read. I'll read what Jeff posted. He put r J.

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Speaker 4: Harvey where the shoulder labor and was repaired versus debrided

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Speaker 4: it shouldn't negatively impact his receiving ability.

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Speaker 1: Okay, there was another Twitter doc. I believe that was

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Speaker 1: mentioning that we're all sitting here talking about Bucky Irving

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Speaker 1: and the issues that he's had with his shoulder. But

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Speaker 1: really this could be more concerning from a timeline perspective

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Speaker 1: than Bucky Irving's timeline, which I think is kind of

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Speaker 1: interesting and an interesting juxtaposition based on the way that

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Speaker 1: you know things have gone for Irving. So yeah, I mean, like,

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Speaker 1: I think this should impact things I've been right when

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Speaker 1: I start.

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Speaker 2: Buying more into RJ.

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Speaker 1: Harvey, this like like right when I start drafting him more,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, oh, I can see this. I just man,

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Speaker 1: I love ambiguous backfields. Don't get me wrong, I still

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Speaker 1: think RJ. Harvey has the most upside in that backfield

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Speaker 1: in general, which is why he should have the highest ADP.

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Speaker 1: I don't buy the narrative out there from people who

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Speaker 1: are like JK. Dobbins should be straight up drafted ahead

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Speaker 1: of RJ. Harvey because What that misses is you're doing

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Speaker 1: that base off of a median outcome, a median projection, which,

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Speaker 1: sure you could probably project JK. Dobbins to score more

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Speaker 1: points than RJ.

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Speaker 2: Harvey this year. I think that's you know, I think

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Speaker 2: you'd probably still want to project RJ. Harvey. You can't

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Speaker 2: just look at last year and say that's going to

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Speaker 2: happen this year when r J. Harvey was a rookie.

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Speaker 2: You know, not only that it was the first part

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Speaker 2: of his.

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Speaker 1: Rookie season, we didn't really see the full blown hand

435
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 1: him and what it would look like when when JK.

436
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 1: Dobbins was fully fully healthy, and so like, I just

437
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 1: don't think that this is a simple like, oh, just

438
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 1: look at what happened last year, therefore it's gonna happen

439
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: this year. So I can understand from a projection standpoint

440
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,959
Speaker 1: why you might like Dobbins more. I would disagree still,

441
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: but sure if you want to go that route. But

442
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 1: saying that Dobbins should be drafted straight up ahead of

443
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: Harvey before this injury stuff, and I even think after

444
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 1: the injury stuff, I'm still gonna have Harvey ahead. It

445
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 1: just misses the ceiling point and misses the point of

446
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,959
Speaker 1: like you're in the later round, mid to late rounds

447
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: where you should not be worried about floor nearly as much.

448
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 4: JK.

449
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,120
Speaker 1: Dobbins is not a pass catcher. He had a four

450
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,639
Speaker 1: point two percent target share last year, and he was

451
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,360
Speaker 1: really bad per route run. It's not like he had

452
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 1: a two point zero yards per route run rate, but

453
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: he just wasn't being used enough. He just was not

454
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: good as a pass catcher. And quite frankly, he hasn't

455
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,239
Speaker 1: been an outstanding pass catcher in the NFL on a

456
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: from an efficiency standpoint and from a volume standpoint.

457
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 2: And so R. J. Harvey was pretty good as a

458
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 2: pass catcher last year at the very least, you know,

459
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 2: not very good as a runner, but good as a

460
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: pass catcher. And that's what we should be really aimed

461
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: at and focused on when it comes to that point

462
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: in the draft and looking for upsides, especially in these

463
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: half in full PPR formats. So to me, like Dobbins

464
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,959
Speaker 2: is just not someone that I've been clicking very often.

465
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 2: Like I, it's a really especially on in best ball,

466
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: it's a really hard time to go after a player

467
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 2: like that. When there's really good quarterbacks still available.

468
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: You can make the case for other running backs, you know,

469
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: like Rashad White types, you know, like I I'd rather

470
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 1: just straight up take a chance on Rashad White than JK.

471
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 2: Dobbins at this point.

472
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, And so I just have a hard time with Dobbins.

473
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 1: You know, I had the opposite problem last year's rapping

474
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,639
Speaker 1: Dobbins everywhere. But but we now have a year of data.

475
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 2: Of him not being deployed consistently as a pass catcher

476
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: and RJ. Harvey being really efficient in that role.

477
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 1: So you know, I think that Harvey's ADP will fall,

478
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 1: and it should fall a little bit, but I'm probably

479
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: still gonna have a Harvey ahead of Dobbins from a

480
00:23:58,320 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 1: rankings perspective.

481
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 4: Okay, what about the news that the Jags are trying

482
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 4: to sign JK. Dobbins. Does that impact your all roads

483
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 4: lead to ba shall Tuton stands.

484
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: I think it's a bigger indictment on Chris Rodriguez because

485
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 1: they did go after the early down guy, and it

486
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: was Rodriguez, and clearly he was not their first option.

487
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 1: When the whole narrative behind Chris Rodriguez was that he

488
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 1: was a Liam Cohen guy.

489
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 4: Oh I like this man, Yeah, I like it.

490
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: If if he's such a Liam Cohen guy, then why

491
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 1: did they not have him as their one a choice?

492
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: You know, that's my that's my big problem with I

493
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 1: think base Shall Tuton is still a very good pick

494
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 1: in the fifth round.

495
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, Uh, brand Ayuk weighs in. As you know,

496
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 4: we have a weekly Brandon Ayuk kind of where is he?

497
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 4: We should probably put him on the available because he's

498
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 4: he's available. But we talked about a few weeks ago

499
00:24:56,600 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 4: about the people that were taking these pictures of Ayuk

500
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 4: and blowing them up and making him look like really overweight. Well,

501
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 4: he weighed himself and he put a picture up the

502
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 4: of his weight. He just wants people to know. Yeah,

503
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 4: he just wants people to know that.

504
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: Hey, I'm wait, let me guess his weight. Do you

505
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: have his weight?

506
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 4: Do you know his number? I think I remember it.

507
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gonna start with a two.

508
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, but it's gonna be it's gonna.

509
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: Be the low because he's a he's a thick, he's

510
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: a thicker wide when he came out, he's like a

511
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: yak guy, right, like he's a.

512
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna say it's I'm gonna say it's two.

513
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 4: Oh nine, you're really really close, you're a pound Okay, yeah,

514
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 4: over it's too o weight Okay, yeah, I believe I can.

515
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: I can believe that.

516
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 1: I mean, like, that's that's not shocking to me that

517
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: he would be because because he runs the risk if

518
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: he's too small in posting that, right that that was

519
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 1: my logic, Like, he's not gonna post like I'm two

520
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 1: thirty because then everyone's like, oh my god, you're so

521
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: out of shape. And then if he posts like I'm

522
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: one eighty nine, then that just means that he hasn't

523
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:01,240
Speaker 1: been lifting, and he's not.

524
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 4: And he did have sandals on in this and he

525
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,479
Speaker 4: posts it's a it's a video, and so he posts

526
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 4: it like you can see his physique in the mirror,

527
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 4: and then he weighs himself, so could be two o seven,

528
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 4: but he looks in good shape. Basically, that's good.

529
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 2: Good for him. Look, he's living his best life right now, Brandon.

530
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: Apparently all right, we got more Brian Thomas steam Let's

531
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 4: be reporter saying that he was the MVP of JAG's

532
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 4: practices so far. And I don't know, man, it feels

533
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 4: like there's a flippaning coming with him in Parker, Washington.

534
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 2: I had the thought earlier this week this is this

535
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: is the show where I get out my like intrusive

536
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 2: thoughts about for it. I had this thought earlier this

537
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 2: week of like, you know, there's been rumors of them

538
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 2: trading Brian Robinson for like a year now, Like maybe

539
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 2: not a year, but at least like, you know, eight

540
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 2: or eight months or so. Brian Thomas, Brian Thomas, What

541
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 2: did I say, Brian Robinson?

542
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you're still stuck in running back territory.

543
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, sorry, guys. I had the thought that, like, what

544
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 2: if this is just steam for a potential deal, Like

545
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: what if this is I don't believe that. I don't

546
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 2: actually believe.

547
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: That, guys, but I'm saying, like, what if, you know,

548
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 1: if we want to be a little dramatic about this,

549
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 1: what if this is just like the Jags doing some

550
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 1: favorable pr to get him off the team. I think

551
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: he's a good player, though, I mean I liked him

552
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: as a prospect. I liked him after year one.

553
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 2: I didn't. I didn't. I wasn't like in love.

554
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: I remember going back in my rankings, I actually was

555
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: like one or two spots lower than the market last

556
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 1: year with Brian Thomas, but I still had him as

557
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 1: like a one two turn guy. My issue with Thomas

558
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: is that I really do like Parker Washington. Yeah, and

559
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 1: a lot of the trends do like Parker Washington, most

560
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:50,719
Speaker 1: of them certainly more than they do Brian Thomas. And

561
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: so you know, I'm drafting both. I think that you

562
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 1: just throw darts at this Jags. Like, in my opinion,

563
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 1: you get exposure to the drags wide receiver room for

564
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 1: Best Ball this year, and like, if you're you know

565
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: a lot of people listening right now are playing both

566
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 1: Best Ball.

567
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 2: And Season long, and then in Season long, you just.

568
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: Draft Trevor Lawrence. Like that's your that's that's your exposure

569
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: to capture all of that stuff. And maybe that's a

570
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 1: cop out, but I think it's a pretty reasonable approach.

571
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I still This was an article written by John Shipley, who's.

572
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 2: Been crushing it and he has crushed it for years

573
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:24,439
Speaker 2: for Jos.

574
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, people are just now kind of starting to know

575
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 4: who he is, So shout out to John Shipley. But

576
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 4: he was saying that the the MVP, he said, really

577
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 4: all of them are doing great, but the MVP has

578
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 4: been Brian Thomas Junior. That's why I think if there

579
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 4: continues to be steam, they're right now, they're going really close.

580
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 4: Like on DraftKings, I could see there being an eventual slipping.

581
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, look, he I think I also

582
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: think that Brian Thomas's game is maybe not in DK

583
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 1: as much, but you know, because it's full PPR.

584
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 2: But I do think that his game is pretty conducive

585
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 2: to to best ball as well.

586
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 4: All right, on the flip side, getting some rough practice

587
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 4: reports out of Titan's practice. You can't be shocked by this.

588
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 4: I'm a little shocked. I'm a little shocked. I thought

589
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 4: that it would be a little smoother. However, people have

590
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 4: pointed out that we were doing the same sort of

591
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 4: Monday morning quarterback analysis last year with Drake May.

592
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams too.

593
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 4: Was Williams as well.

594
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 1: I remember sending a tweet in late July or something

595
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: that said, like, you guys can all say like I'm

596
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 1: still drafting.

597
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: Bears is what I basically said. But yeah, I mean, look,

598
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 2: cam Ward, you.

599
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: Gotta this is very much a like if you take

600
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 1: the extremes on the film versus analytics debate, like the

601
00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: analytics people are gonna say cam Ward is terrible, and

602
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: the film people are gonna say, no, no, no, there's definitely traits.

603
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 2: Here, right.

604
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that if his cost were higher in

605
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: Best Ball and Season Long, I would out.

606
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 2: I think I'm more out.

607
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: Than in from a Dynasty perspective, But I don't think

608
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: that his cost is that agree just to have a

609
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: strong opinion on what's going on with cam Warren.

610
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 2: That being said, I don't think the expectation should be

611
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: that he's gonna be phenomenal as a quarterback.

612
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: Just because simply because his Year one numbers were really

613
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: really bad, like like completely objectively his Year one numbers

614
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:27,520
Speaker 1: were bad. Right, you're then using situation coaching, et cetera

615
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: as the excuse, which you know, it's funny that I

616
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: published the Gray Area Fantasy Football episode today because it's

617
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: exactly what I was talking about with Roman dun Ze

618
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: last year, right, where you're not dismissing like this is

619
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: you don't have to take a stand of like his

620
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 1: metrics are all that matter and you forget context.

621
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 2: We're only gonna look at his metrics. But then you

622
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: shouldn't take.

623
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: The stance that and say, oh, we just dismiss his

624
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: metrics because he's in a bad situation. Because there's been

625
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: a lot of rookie quarterbacks in bad situations that have

626
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 1: done well, you know, that have not posted horrific numbers

627
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: in year one, and it is generally telling as to.

628
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 2: How good that player's career is going to go.

629
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 1: So that's why I'm looking at this with a very

630
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: in a very nuanced way. I'm trying to not overreact

631
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: to what we saw from the numbers perspective, but I

632
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 1: do know that they still matter.

633
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 2: You know that it's still some stubs, some substance there.

634
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: I like what they've done in adding the pieces that

635
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: they've added, Like, I think that the cohesiveness of that

636
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: wide receiver room is very much there, and it's better

637
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: than what they had, like way better than what they

638
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 1: had last year.

639
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 4: Uh.

640
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, like, I think that there's definitely

641
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 1: risk involved with camp Ward. I think he's so fine

642
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 1: in Best Ball I'm drafting him in Best Ball Dynasty.

643
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit if you're on just because you know,

644
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 1: some people really like him, But I'm not like shocked

645
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 1: by the reports that are going on.

646
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 4: Job Obondi says, oh, careful with your gray area. Talks JJ. Yeah,

647
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 4: talking about last year in the whole gray area. People

648
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:52,719
Speaker 4: don't some people don't understand.

649
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 2: People don't like people don't like the uh yeah.

650
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 4: They don't like the nuance. Yeah, Matt says he's here

651
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 4: for the hot takes, all right, the opposite of hotspros

652
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 4: and Jayden Reid. I just want just to get to

653
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 4: see if you are nervous at all about this.

654
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 1: About Matthew Golden is playing in two wide receiver sets. Yes,

655
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 1: I think that's the expectation. That's why I've been saying

656
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: I've been drafting Matthew Golden. You know, I like Jayden

657
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: Reid as a potential breakout though, because so the difference

658
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: between Jayden Reid and Josh Downs, for instance, is, you know,

659
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: if you want to just group them together, because I've

660
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: been grouping them together all off season, Josh Downs doesn't

661
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 1: have anyone truly difficult or potentially difficult in his way

662
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 1: in two wide receiver sets this year. Right, it's Nick

663
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 1: Westbrookakine and Alec Pierce is hurt. We talked about that

664
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: last week. So Josh Dollens has a lot of opportunity

665
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: not in as good of an offense you would argue

666
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: because Matt Lafleur consistently has been giving them good offensive

667
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: production in Green Bay, so that's a little bit of

668
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: a downtake. But yeah, Josh Dowen's in a better spot

669
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: than Jaden Reid to play those two wide receiver sets.

670
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 1: My argument with Jayden Reid is the fact that he's

671
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 1: been very, very good per route run through his career

672
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: and now he might get more opportunity to play on

673
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: the outside because Matthew Golden didn't show.

674
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 2: Us that much his rookie year.

675
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: Right, So there's a it's a more climbable depth chart

676
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: than what Jaden Reid has experienced in his history.

677
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 2: Right.

678
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 1: I don't think that's a locker. That means that he's

679
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: definitely gonna be playing in two wide receiver sets. And

680
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 1: this is why I'm fine in redraft where his cost

681
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 1: is very appetizing. Still, Matthew Golden in Best Ball, my gosh,

682
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: you can get him still in the double digit rounds.

683
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's when.

684
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: I think that's a great price for a player like Golden,

685
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: who we've seen some guys like not do anything as

686
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 1: rookies and still give you like wide receiver three, wide

687
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: receiver two, production.

688
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: I just don't think that the ceiling is going to

689
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: be there for Matthew Golden.

690
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: But that's fine in this kind of environment and in

691
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 1: a best ball environment given his cost.

692
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 4: Right.

693
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: So all of those Packers wide receivers, in my opinion,

694
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 1: are draftable right now. This doesn't really deter me. I

695
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: hope it lowers Jayden Reid's ADP because if the opposite

696
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: report were happening, Jayden Reid would be like a seventh

697
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 1: round pick, pretty comfortable, like a very firm early seventh

698
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: like six seven turn type player.

699
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: You know. Yeah, Oh my gosh, I thought we were

700
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 2: over this. I thought we were over this. I thought

701
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 2: this was done. Anyway. That's where I'm at with the

702
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: Packers wide.

703
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 4: House, all right, uh six seven many CEV eight said

704
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,319
Speaker 4: Iguka's going higher than the Dude's and drafts this year,

705
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 4: JJ remains on top.

706
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 2: So that's not what that episode, I know.

707
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 4: I know, Okay, lots of wide receiver talk and we're

708
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 4: not gonna stop.

709
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 2: Now.

710
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 4: It's today's data, today's data.

711
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a chart directly from this year's draft

712
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: guide about early round wide receivers, top eighteen wide receivers

713
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 1: and looking at their previous year first downs per route

714
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: run rate and seeing how well they So this is

715
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:52,879
Speaker 1: what's going to be different in this year's guide.

716
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: Also is that I'm looking at.

717
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 1: Players who underperform versus expectation and not just overperform. So

718
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,319
Speaker 1: I've always done, you know, greater than zero points per

719
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 1: game above expected, greater than two, greater than four. I

720
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 1: did greater than six last year. I'm just doing up

721
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,919
Speaker 1: to greater than four this year. But I'm also looking

722
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 1: at how well they do in terms of floor outcomes,

723
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: and that matters a lot more, especially in these early

724
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: rounds where we're more concerned about the floor outcomes. But

725
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 1: this is a really nice like linear relationship of the

726
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 1: higher the first downs per route run number, the better

727
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: the hit rate, especially if the previous year first downs

728
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 1: per route run is above twelve percent.

729
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: You know, yes, it's arbitrary.

730
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 1: You can bucket these and bin these in a lot

731
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: of different ways, but you have pretty comparable sample sizes

732
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 1: for the most part, aside from that smaller group where

733
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: they're less.

734
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 2: Than eight percent. So this says twelve percent or more

735
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 2: of their routes run result in first downs, and you

736
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 2: can see the average difference against ADP expectation for the

737
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: guys who have a twelve percent rate or higher is

738
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 2: one point one five, which is fantastic.

739
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 1: It's really really good. The other groups are below zero,

740
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,280
Speaker 1: which means they play below expected on average. The group

741
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 1: that has a really high first downs per route run

742
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 1: rate the previous season play well above that expectation.

743
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 2: Now, unfortunately there's.

744
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 1: Only three guys who are above that mark in the

745
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: top eighteen this year could be four if people just

746
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: liked Terry McLaurin a little bit more. There's another I

747
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 1: think notch in a favorable direction for Terry McLaurin. But

748
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,280
Speaker 1: the three wide receivers are Jackson Smith and Jigba Kukuanakua

749
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: and aman Ross Saint Brown. So it doesn't really help

750
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: you find values per se. But I do think from

751
00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 1: an ARSB perspective, it makes should make you feel more

752
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: confident that he's at least the wide receiver four in

753
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 1: drafts this year, that that you should like. I don't

754
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,239
Speaker 1: think under yeah, I would not be draft just because

755
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 1: of the safety. Like the what we saw from Justin

756
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 1: Jefferson last year was scary enough for me to just say, look,

757
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: I think seiling wise, Amin Ros Saint Brown is not

758
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 1: that much different than Justin Jefferson and aman Ross Saint

759
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 1: Brown has the stability. We just have this predictability aspect

760
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 1: with him that we just don't have with Justin Jefferson.

761
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: Right now, I would not be drafting Justin Jefferson over

762
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 1: aman Ross Saint Brown. But Amanas Saint Brown I think

763
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: is still like I've taken him plenty over Jonathan Taylor

764
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: in some of these best Ball drafts, just that if

765
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 1: I wanted to get wide receiver heavy, you know, and

766
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: get a different kind of build. So I think aarsp's

767
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: in a really good spot and this is just one

768
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: of those metrics that helped show that.

769
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 4: All right, let's get on to the main event, the

770
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 4: late round, main event. All right, jjy, we're talking alarming

771
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:30,479
Speaker 4: stats from twenty twenty five, starting with DJ Moore.

772
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 1: Everything from DJ Moore's twenty twenty five is alarming, Like realistically,

773
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 1: the one thing that's not and that has nothing to

774
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: do with twenty twenty five is that he's in a

775
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: new environment and he could thrive in that environment for sure.

776
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 1: I've talked about this before on the show, like he's

777
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 1: a you know, a guy who's better when the play

778
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 1: breaks down, and that's exactly what the Buffalo offense kind

779
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 1: of thrives in because of Josh Allen being their quarterback.

780
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 1: But if you just look at the numbers all this

781
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 1: previous season, numbers are so horrifically frightening. Okay, the one

782
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: that I'm calling out here is is one point two

783
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: to two yards per out run rate among top forty

784
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 1: wide receivers by ADP since twenty fourteen. With a yard

785
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: per out run rate below one point five, which is

786
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 1: significantly higher than where DJ Moore is at. They underperformed

787
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 1: versus expected I realized that copying and paste underperformed twice

788
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 1: here and it's spelled incorrectly, So that's cool. Uh, But

789
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 1: this is why we do the show the way that

790
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: we do, right.

791
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 4: But they all get it.

792
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 2: Okay, Kitchen, we'll fix it. They underperform versus expectation.

793
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,720
Speaker 1: The guys who are below a one point five yards

794
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 1: per out run rate drafted as top forty wide receivers

795
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:36,240
Speaker 1: by one point two PPR points per game. The guys

796
00:38:36,239 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 1: who were below that were in the top thirty and

797
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: below that mark, so again, top forty, you're getting some

798
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,280
Speaker 1: like questionable wide receiver profiles in general, and maybe sometimes

799
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: they don't have very good previous season numbers, but the

800
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,439
Speaker 1: market is boosting them into the top forty, and they're

801
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 1: doing that for a reason.

802
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 2: But then if you're in the top thirty, if you're in.

803
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,439
Speaker 1: The top twenty, et cetera, et cetera, these numbers become

804
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: even more import and because the competition within that range

805
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 1: is greater. Right, And so when you look at top

806
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: thirty wide receivers by ADP and guys who are below

807
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 1: that one point five yards per hour run mark, they

808
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: underperform versus expectation on average by two point eight PPR

809
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: points per game, which is horrifically bad.

810
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 2: It's very very bad.

811
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 1: We're talking like, if DJ Moore is expected to score

812
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 1: thirteen PPR points per game, he's gonna score ten, right,

813
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 1: based on what that's saying. So it's just another reason

814
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 1: why I'm just nervous about DJ Moore. You know, I

815
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: think situation can only take him so far. I he's

816
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: just a he's a very very scary pick.

817
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 4: Right now. Okay, let's go to someone who had a

818
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 4: really good year last year and his ADP is pretty

819
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,240
Speaker 4: high this year. Matthew Stafford.

820
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to throw this one in there because

821
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna see that Matthew Stafford at a seventeen point

822
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 1: seven percent touchdown rate, and you're gonna say to yourself, well,

823
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: that's not a bad thing. Well it is when you

824
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: look at it versus expectation the follow up year. There's

825
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 1: been sixteen quarterbacks since twenty fourteen with a with a

826
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: touchdown rate in the previous season above seven percent.

827
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: Those guys spelled underperformed wrong again.

828
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 4: Huh no, spelled expectation wrong. It's all right, We're good.

829
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 1: Look, I've had a rough one in the last week.

830
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,919
Speaker 1: They've underperformed for his expectation by one point seven points

831
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 1: per game. There's only been four of them in the

832
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 1: previous season who had less than two points per game

833
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: via rushing. Because we know Matthew Stafford's not gonna do

834
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 1: anything on the ground, right, he had like point oh

835
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 1: five or something points per game rushing. Two of those

836
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 1: four played five or more points per game below expected. Now,

837
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 1: Stafford's ADP, because the market has gotten smarter, is not

838
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 1: as high as it could have been based on what

839
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 1: we've seen historically from.

840
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: These types of players.

841
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,280
Speaker 1: But with that being said, I do think that Stafford's

842
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: one of the big calls, because in best Ball it's

843
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: a little bit different, like he's not like I think

844
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,399
Speaker 1: his his his ADP is fine and not like it's

845
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: whatever and you're stacking. It's just a different environment. But

846
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,399
Speaker 1: I would almost guarantee you that when you do your

847
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 1: home league drafts and your office drafts and stuff like that,

848
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 1: this this August, Stafford's gonna be a fringe top ten guy,

849
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 1: if not a top ten guy.

850
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 2: And that's when you know that you should probably be

851
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 2: avoiding him.

852
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 4: All right. Next we have Kyle Pitts.

853
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: So Kyle Pitts, I feel like we remember I mean,

854
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,880
Speaker 1: I certainly remember him for his playoff performance last year

855
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 1: because it got me into the final of the of

856
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 1: the DK Final on the Vedio, right, So Kyle Pitts

857
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: forever in my heart. But but we can't deny that

858
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: Drake London being sidelined was very helpful to Kyle Pitts's

859
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 1: overall olcom He had he had nine point six PPR

860
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 1: points per game before Drake London's injury, which is nothing

861
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 1: to write home. You can do that via streaming right

862
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: during that split, twenty one percent target share good not fantastic,

863
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 1: not like amazing nineteen percent targets per out run rate, which.

864
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: Is again just fine.

865
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: And then from week twelve on when Drake London was out,

866
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts averaged a twenty seven percent target share, He

867
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 1: had a twenty four percent targets per ol run rate

868
00:41:57,840 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 1: and sixteen point three PPR points per game. One of

869
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 1: those those was forty five points, which definitely you know,

870
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: exkews us a little bit, but he was way way

871
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: better without Drake London than with Drake London. I think

872
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 1: we got to keep that in mind as we're drafting

873
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 1: him this year.

874
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 4: All right, on to Kenneth Walker.

875
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:17,399
Speaker 1: So Kenneth Walker had had a spike two years ago

876
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: in receiving work, but every other year of his career

877
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: he's been sort of a subpar receiver from a volume perspective, right,

878
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:27,640
Speaker 1: And so last year he had three and a half

879
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: receiving points per game. And if you look at top

880
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 1: eighteen running backs historically who have scored between zero and

881
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: four PPR points per game in the previous season four

882
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 1: to eight eight plus, this is in the guide last year,

883
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: but it's in the guide again this year. The guys

884
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 1: who are in the zero to four range have underperformed

885
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,359
Speaker 1: versus expectation by far at the highest rate, and they

886
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: also have shown by far the lowest ceiling. Only six

887
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 1: percent of them have outperformed ADP expectation by four more

888
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: points per game the following year.

889
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 4: Right.

890
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 1: The crazy thing is is that in the next table

891
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 1: that you guys can see here, if you take out

892
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor and Derek Henry from this data set, which

893
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 1: there's six of these instances where those guys have been

894
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: part of the data set, then in the zero to

895
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 1: four group, all of a sudden you realize, oh, this

896
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 1: is actually just weighed towards Dereck Henry and Jonathan Taylor,

897
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: two of the most prolific rushers that we've seen in

898
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: the NFL in this recent era. Right, So basically, Kenneth Walker,

899
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 1: in my opinion, I've cooled off on him a little

900
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: bit over the last month because I do think there's

901
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 1: a chance that they use like an Amari de Mercado

902
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: and I'm at Johnson whomever to play a little bit

903
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,839
Speaker 1: of a receiving role. And there's reason for that, because

904
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 1: they like he's gonna get a ton of work on

905
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 1: the ground, and I just don't know, like it might

906
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 1: be a better thing for real football than it is

907
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 1: fantasy football.

908
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,920
Speaker 4: You also continue to be cautious with this next player,

909
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 4: Michael Wilson.

910
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 2: I don't get it, man, I just I don't. I don't.

911
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:50,280
Speaker 2: I don't get Michael Wilson.

912
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 1: I mean, he could, he could certainly just be incredibly

913
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 1: good and just ruin me and make me look like

914
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 1: an idiot. But in a split, there's been three games.

915
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 1: There were three games last year with ja Kobe Bursett

916
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,400
Speaker 1: and with Marvin Harrison Junior running at least eighty percent

917
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:08,440
Speaker 1: of the team's routes. In those three games, Michael Wilson

918
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 1: averaged seven point eight PPR points per game. He scored seven,

919
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 1: nine point one and seven point four PPR points in

920
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,759
Speaker 1: those three games. He had a fourteen percent target share

921
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 1: in those three games. That is not usable fantasy production.

922
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: It's just that when Marvin Harrison Junior was sidelined or

923
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 1: when he wasn't playing a ton because of the appendicitis stuff,

924
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: and him coming out here that like foot I think

925
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,760
Speaker 1: last year, that's when Michael Wilson thrived. So Marvin Harrison

926
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 1: Junior is seemingly back and healthy, and that scares me

927
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: about what we could see with Michael Wilson. The difference

928
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 1: between Michael Wilson and Parker Washington, in my opinion, is

929
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 1: that the injury for Marvin Harrison Junior allowed Michael Wilson

930
00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: to see a lot of volume, but he wasn't that

931
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 1: efficient with that volume. Like his yards broout run was

932
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:57,399
Speaker 1: one point five to nine last year. Parker Washington, when

933
00:44:57,440 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter got hurt, got more opportunity. But I think

934
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 1: it showed the Jags that he's actually really good because

935
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 1: he was incredibly efficient while playing alongside Brian Thomas and

936
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 1: Jacoby Myers. And so I think that's the main difference

937
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 1: between Parker Washington and Michael Wilson, aside from the environment.

938
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 2: Quarter in the court.

939
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like that's the thing with Michael Wilson, Like they

940
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 1: could be starting Carson Beck at the end of the year.

941
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 4: Very year, they could be an anemic offense potentially at

942
00:45:21,239 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 4: the back.

943
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 1: So I think that this split should make you feel

944
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 1: less confident about Michael Wilson next year.

945
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 4: Let's get onto this guy makes me a little bit nervous.

946
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,240
Speaker 4: Javonte Williams a cover boy for Today.

947
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Javonte Williams, Like, I'm going through all of

948
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: the early round stuff, you know, for these running backs

949
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 1: and looking at trends, and there's one trend where he

950
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 1: looks okay, and you guys can see that in.

951
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 2: The draft guide.

952
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: But a lot of them, ninety percent of them, it's like,

953
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: because it's so receiving focused, he just was not a

954
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: good receiver. Last year he had point four yards per

955
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: route run. Seventeen running backs ranked outside the top twelve,

956
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:59,959
Speaker 1: but through RB thirty six had less than a point

957
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 1: six yards per route run rates since twenty fourteen with

958
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 1: a minimum of fifty routes run. So you're looking at

959
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 1: RB thirteen through thirty six, there's been seventeen guys who

960
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 1: had a previous season yards per out run below point

961
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 1: six with at least fifty routes run. Only one of

962
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,839
Speaker 1: them outperform expectation by two or more PPR points per game.

963
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 1: The average underperformed by one and a half PPR points

964
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 1: per game. Now, I think that, like, if we're being

965
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 1: completely honest about Gavonte Williams, and you could maybe argue

966
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: David Montgomery as well with this argument, But if you're

967
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 1: being completely objective, people are drafting both of those players

968
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,560
Speaker 1: simply because they're projected to see a lot of volume.

969
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,280
Speaker 1: I don't think they're drafting them because they're unbelievable talents

970
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 1: of the position. And historically sometimes it works out, but

971
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 1: more often than not, it doesn't work out to the

972
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 1: degree in which you wanted to work out.

973
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 2: I think that Williams is a safe bet to be

974
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 2: to match ADP.

975
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: I just don't think he's an easy bet to say

976
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,320
Speaker 1: he's going to be a top ten running back in

977
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: fantasy football.

978
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 2: And in that range, there's a lot of good wide receivers.

979
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 2: There are some other really good high end running backs,

980
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 2: you know, some of the year two guys, and Josh Jacobs,

981
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 2: now who is right? Josh Jacobs has obviously like that.

982
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: I've had a harder time clicking Javonte Williams because of that,

983
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,239
Speaker 1: even though I fully understand, you know, why he's being

984
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 1: drafted where he is, and I understand that there is

985
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,320
Speaker 1: at least a really comfortable floor in drafting Williams.

986
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:27,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm just ready for Jayden Blue to come in

987
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 4: and just a year after we were all in, just

988
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 4: ruin all our Javonte Williams shares.

989
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 1: I think that there's a possibility that, like you if

990
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 1: you're thinking to yourself, like where could this go south

991
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 1: for Jamonte Williams, Like how could he not, you know,

992
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 1: live up to expectation. And the way that he wouldn't

993
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 1: is that they have just a guy like Jayden Blue

994
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 1: who's able to take on some receiving work and just

995
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:52,919
Speaker 1: be like, get enough of that work that it hurts

996
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 1: Javonte Williams that much, you know, like if Jayden Blue

997
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,399
Speaker 1: is a seven percent target chair player, that ruins Javonte.

998
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 4: Williams, Like I said, I just can't can't wait for it.

999
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 4: I probably should just just draft some insurance shares of

1000
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 4: Jaden Blue just in case he does go off and

1001
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 4: be like, Okay, we're there, all right. Last, but not

1002
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 4: least Ladd McConkie.

1003
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 1: So I like Lad McConkie this year, but going through

1004
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 1: his numbers last year, looking at trends all that it's

1005
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:28,240
Speaker 1: not the cleanest, like obvious, most obvious pick in the world.

1006
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,479
Speaker 1: You know, there's there's some things, especially his first downs

1007
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 1: per U run rate, which was only six point two

1008
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 1: percent last year, that is very alarming, and we're looking

1009
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 1: at alarming stats on today's show. There's been twenty eight

1010
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 1: top thirty six wide receivers who had three hundred or

1011
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 1: more routes in their previous season with a sub seven

1012
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: percent first downs per run un per first downs per

1013
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,800
Speaker 1: rout run rate. Since twenty fourteen, they underperformed versus expectation

1014
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: on average by one point six points per game. No

1015
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: player outperformed by more than two point two points per game.

1016
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,280
Speaker 1: I think that was Deebo Samuel in a year where

1017
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 1: he was getting work done via his legs, right, like

1018
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: he was getting rushing work done, and so like, it

1019
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 1: does scare me a little bit about Lad mcconky, about

1020
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 1: how how not great his twenty twenty five was, and

1021
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 1: I'm trying to ground myself within that context and not

1022
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 1: get too carried away with where I'm ranking McConkey here

1023
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Like, I think that there's a

1024
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: very real chance by the time August hits that the

1025
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: market is boosting him and boosting him and boosting him

1026
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: to like, you know, we see this every year with

1027
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 1: certain players, Like I think it could happen Luther Burden too,

1028
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 1: which scares me because.

1029
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 2: I really really love Luthor Burden, but it could.

1030
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: You know, you got to stay grounded and not get

1031
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:48,240
Speaker 1: too carried away with these like situations and players. McConkie

1032
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:49,880
Speaker 1: was a lot easier to draft when it was like,

1033
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:52,720
Speaker 1: you know a lot of people just like not caring

1034
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 1: about him until like the mid late fourth round. But

1035
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: it's it's he's now kind of at the top of

1036
00:49:58,040 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 1: that tier, and it makes it a little bit more

1037
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 1: a alarming and scarier because of what he did last season.

1038
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:07,360
Speaker 4: Okay, does the the QJ stuff. It's it's making me

1039
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 4: a little bit nervous.

1040
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 1: It's making me a little bit nervous too, because I

1041
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: think QJ. Here's the thing with QJ. He's not a

1042
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: fantastic all around wide receiver, but when he came out

1043
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:17,720
Speaker 1: and what he can do in the NFL is yards

1044
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 1: after the catch, and I think that they're gonna they're

1045
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 1: gonna deploy him in a way where he's gonna be

1046
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 1: able to maximize that skill set and potentially thrive and

1047
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:28,719
Speaker 1: like be a really good pick himself. And then Trey

1048
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: Harris is sitting back there, yeah, as a you know

1049
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,400
Speaker 1: what if he gets a little bit more work. So like,

1050
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 1: I don't like I think the Lad McConkie, the ceiling

1051
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 1: appeal is certainly there, but I do also think that

1052
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 1: there's a ceiling appeal for a lot of wide receivers

1053
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,439
Speaker 1: in that range, and the floor is certainly a little

1054
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 1: bit scary form.

1055
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 2: A conky two.

1056
00:50:48,280 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 4: Uh speaking, Just going back to Javonte Williams, you just

1057
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 4: had some breaking news that Zamir White is working out

1058
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:56,120
Speaker 4: for the Cowboys.

1059
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 1: Well that makes me like Gavonte Williams even more than

1060
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:04,000
Speaker 1: Forget everything I just said about Javonte Williams. If zam

1061
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 1: Or White is his competition, then we're good to go.

1062
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 4: Baby, You're backed all in. Uh. Keith the Chief made

1063
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 4: fun of my pronunciation of Jaden Blue, I said, Jaydawn,

1064
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 4: it's one of those things where you haven't said the

1065
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 4: name out loud in a while. No, Hey, we'll get

1066
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 4: it back. We'll get it back. Let's let's move on.

1067
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:21,479
Speaker 2: Though.

1068
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 4: This is a good segment. You do need to get

1069
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 4: you need to be alarmed.

1070
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:27,320
Speaker 2: At these stats.

1071
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 4: But that doesn't that doesn't mean that you're like not

1072
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 4: in on some of these players or see like the

1073
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 4: upsides like you mentioned with some of them.

1074
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: I'm definitely fading and or at least like like you know,

1075
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 1: like I'm not drafting much Michael Wilson. I'm not drafting

1076
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,319
Speaker 1: a ton of Javonte Williams right now, just based on

1077
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 1: what we just said. Uh, I like Michael Williams is

1078
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 1: more of a fade than like Javonte is for me,

1079
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 1: Like Stafford in a regular season long league, I'm not

1080
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 1: going to be going after I do win stacks, you know,

1081
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: if I get Pooka or Davante Adams or something so like,

1082
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 1: I would say that the majority of these players, I'm

1083
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: more out than in. But there are some players like

1084
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: Mconkee for instance, where I'm still probably more in and

1085
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 1: out despite what we saw from his numbers last year.

1086
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 4: All right, let's wrap this up again. If you haven't already,

1087
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 4: please subscribe to the Late Round channel and we value

1088
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,520
Speaker 4: your feedback, So any comments after this video is posted,

1089
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 4: any comments on Spotify, we appreciate those. Another Banger newsletter

1090
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 4: for Brandancadoula and is happening this week. We also have

1091
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 4: the regular Friday newsletters, more free content than we've ever

1092
00:52:36,680 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 4: had before. We got the new memberships on the site.

1093
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,319
Speaker 4: All that including the Draft Guide pre order which comes

1094
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 4: out July tenth. All that can be found on Lateround

1095
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 4: dot com. Our brand new website.

1096
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 2: JJ Yes, check it out lateround dot com. We're proud

1097
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: of it.

1098
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:54,720
Speaker 1: Still kind of going through some stuff, like we said,

1099
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 1: but expect like the schedule and everything to be back

1100
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 1: to normal, like once the Draft guide is out. It's

1101
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:03,239
Speaker 1: just a you know, fortunately, this is all happening when

1102
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,759
Speaker 1: it's not really football season. There's not that much going on,

1103
00:53:07,160 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: and you know, like I said, there's just been some

1104
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 1: stuff going on off the field for me that that

1105
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 1: I'm I'm you know, handling and uh, there's there's stuff,

1106
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 1: you know. The draft guys just a lot of work.

1107
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:20,360
Speaker 1: So so bear with me during the next couple of weeks.

1108
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 4: You have tons of grace from us, and just know

1109
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 4: that when this thing comes out, people will be appreciative

1110
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 4: of it and it's it's it should be a really

1111
00:53:35,080 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 4: good tool for your drafts this year. I appreciate everyone

1112
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 4: for tune in, appreciate draftings from sponsorship again. Promo code

1113
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 4: Late Round if you want to do the dog the

1114
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 4: Draft one get one promotion there. The link is also

1115
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 4: in the description. So we appreciate you all, We love

1116
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 4: you all, and we'll see you next time here on

1117
00:53:53,960 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 4: the Late Round Fantasy Football Show. No and n Bill