1 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to Tech Stuff. I'm Os Voloscian. On this podcast, 2 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: we cover emerging technologies and how they reflect but also 3 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: shape the way we live. Artificial intelligence, robotics, energy batteries, 4 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: space exploration. More often than not, though the conversation comes 5 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:35,599 Speaker 1: back to the same place, China. It's a topic and 6 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: a country that everyone has an opinion about, but where 7 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: few have true insight. Today's guest is different. According to 8 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: a headline last year in Wired magazine, he has quote 9 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: the American who waged a tech war on China. The 10 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 1: article continues, China is racing to unseat the US as 11 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: the world's technological superpower, not if Jake Sullivan can help it. 12 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: As soon as I read the article, I know, I 13 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: knew I wanted to have Jake Sullivan on the show. 14 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,320 Speaker 1: He served as National Security Advisor for the duration of 15 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's presidency, and according to my queries on groc 16 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:13,679 Speaker 1: Gemini and chat GPT, he spent more time with his 17 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: Chinese counterparts, including Chi chimping, than any US national security 18 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: advisor since Henry Kissinger. But today, a conversation about waging 19 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: a tech war on China, Autonomous weapons on the battlefield 20 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 1: of Ukraine and far beyond, and what comes next for 21 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 1: a man dubbed a future potential president by Hillary Clinton. 22 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan, Welcome to tech Stuff. 23 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. 24 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: I wanted to start by asking you this, which is 25 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: you are known as a foreign policy person, right, I mean, 26 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: working in the State Department, working on the Iran nuclear 27 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: deal during the Obama administration, national Security advisor under Joe Biden, 28 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: and yet more and more you seem to be a 29 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: tech policy person. And I'm curious you know how that 30 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: shift began and when you started to see tank as 31 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: such a crucial lens for national security. 32 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: It really began for me after twenty sixteen and I 33 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 2: served as a senior policy advisor on Hillary Clinton's campaign, 34 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 2: And it was over the course of that campaign that 35 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: I came to recognize first the degree to which the 36 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 2: intersection of domestic policy and foreign policy was where everything 37 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 2: was happening. And second, at that intersection was technology, both 38 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 2: what we were doing in the United States to invest 39 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 2: at the cutting edge and what was happening in the 40 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 2: US China tech competition. So I spent my years out 41 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 2: of government really digging into a set of technology, economic 42 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 2: and national security issues and when I came in as 43 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 2: National Security Advisor for the first time ever the National 44 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 2: Security Council, we stood up a Directorate on Technology and 45 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 2: National Security so that we could really create an engine 46 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: room for the kind of policy work I felt needed 47 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 2: to be done to make sure that the United States 48 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 2: was in the best possible position to make technology work 49 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 2: for us rather than against US. 50 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting when you when you leave off this, 51 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: you know way you go for an exit interview, when 52 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: you sat for the Wide magazine piece why there? And 53 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: did you like the headline the American who waged a 54 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: tech war against China? 55 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 2: Great question on the headline. I can't say I love 56 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: the headline because I personally you may have noticed, don't 57 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 2: use the phrase tech war. 58 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 1: No, it would be it would be ill advised for 59 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: something in your position to use the word war, I 60 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: guess when talking about China. 61 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, And I don't think of it in those terms. Actually, 62 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 2: I think of it as on a much more common 63 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 2: sense basis, what do we need to do to promote 64 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 2: the advancement of American technology and what do we need 65 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: to do to protect American technology from being used against 66 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 2: us by competitors like the People's Republic of China, and 67 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 2: that was the strategy that we pursued. It was not 68 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 2: a war, but it was hard nosed in the sense 69 00:03:56,760 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 2: that we felt that for too long we had been 70 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 2: sending our most advanced tool use technologies to China for 71 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: them to turn back against us, and we weren't going 72 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: to allow that to happen, particularly when it came to 73 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: advanced semiconductors. 74 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: When it comes to China specifically, I mean, what was 75 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 1: your worst fear about China getting an edge and what 76 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: was your mission to prevent that from happening. 77 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 2: Well, Look, I've said since the start of my time, 78 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 2: from when I came in as National Security Advisor, that 79 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: China makes no bones about the fact that it seeks 80 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 2: to become the world's leading economic, diplomatic, and technological power. 81 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 2: And my view is that the United States is better off, 82 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 2: and frankly, the world is better off if the United 83 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 2: States sustains its position as the world's leading power, including 84 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 2: the world's leading technology power. That is the way that 85 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 2: we are most likely to be able to ensure that 86 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 2: this technological revolution which you have spoken to so many 87 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 2: different brilliant people about works more for us than it 88 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 2: works against US, and so I worried that China was 89 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 2: going to achieve supremacy or dominance in the key technologies 90 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 2: of the future. And wasn't just my worry. I think 91 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 2: a lot of people back in twenty twenty one were 92 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 2: essentially saying, you know, the US is going to lose 93 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,120 Speaker 2: out to China when it comes to AI and other 94 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 2: areas too. China has too many advantages. The United States 95 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 2: is too disorganized. It's just not going to get its 96 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: act together. And I was determined to make sure that 97 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 2: we competed as effectively and vigorously as possible so that 98 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 2: we could sustain the edge. But I also knew it 99 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 2: was going to be a tough competition because China has 100 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:35,880 Speaker 2: a lot of capability to bring to bear in this 101 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 2: area as well as in other areas, some of which 102 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 2: you mentioned at the outset of the podcast, whether it's 103 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 2: robotics or autonomy or you name it. So I can't 104 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 2: say I went to sleep at night with a single 105 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 2: fear other than I felt it was my job to 106 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 2: help position the United States as best as possible in 107 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 2: this really sustain competition with China over the future of 108 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 2: key technologies that are going to find so much of 109 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,840 Speaker 2: national security, but also economics and society in the years ahead, 110 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 2: and AI is essential to that as any. 111 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:12,280 Speaker 1: There is this theory called the Fucidity's trap, which has 112 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: been popularized by Graham Allison, who I know is a 113 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 1: colleague at at Harvard now and kind of a mentor, 114 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: which essentially says that you know, if you look at 115 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 1: the history of a declining great power and a rising 116 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 1: great power in should we say in our ten cases, 117 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: that will necessarily lead to war? And I think that's 118 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: been kind of like a bipartisan framework for thinking about 119 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: US and China. Is that a framework that you believe 120 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,679 Speaker 1: to be true that there is a about fifty percent 121 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: chance that there's inevitability of a capital w war? Like, 122 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 1: how do you apply that framework to you're thinking about 123 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 1: China and then in turn your policy on tech. 124 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 2: I think Graham Alison's book is excellent. It deserves to 125 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 2: be read by everybody. I have it here in my 126 00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 2: office at Harvard, and not just because he's my colleague 127 00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: down the hall. But I do not believe that it 128 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:05,119 Speaker 2: is excellent because it is describing an inevitable conflict between 129 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 2: the US and China. That this is some kind of 130 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 2: law of nature. In fact, he points out in the 131 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 2: book that there are cases where a rising power and 132 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: established power didn't go to war. And my view is 133 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 2: that the US and China are going to be in 134 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 2: a sustained competition. It will be intense, it will be challenging, 135 00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 2: but it is critical, it is vital that we manage 136 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 2: that competition so that it does not spill over into 137 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 2: conflict or confrontation. And my view is we can do that, 138 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 2: and I actually think the blueprint for that was laid 139 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 2: out over the four years of the Biden administration. We 140 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 2: were able to enhance America's competitive position, take tough actions, 141 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 2: and also engage in sustained diplomacy so that we didn't 142 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: move in the direction of war with China, which would 143 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: be a catastrophe not just for the US and China, 144 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 2: but for the entire world. 145 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: He let's talk about some of the tough measures. You 146 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: mentioned two countries, Holland and Japan. That this kind of 147 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:06,120 Speaker 1: fascinating secret meeting that you convene with your adoption Japanese counterparts. 148 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: What are you trying to achieve? 149 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 2: So I'll be advised in what I say, because having 150 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: some discretion in the diplomatic relationships with Japan and the 151 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: Netherlands was critical to being able to achieve the kind 152 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 2: of consensus we were able to achieve on semiconductor manufacturing 153 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 2: equipment export controls. So, for your listeners, there's two types 154 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 2: of export controls. There's the controls on very high end ships, 155 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 2: I think H one hundred Nvidia chips or the Blackwells, 156 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 2: and then there are controls on the manufacturing equipment used 157 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 2: to make the highest end AI chips and other high 158 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 2: end ships. And that equipment is primarily produced by three countries, 159 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 2: the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan, and so having 160 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 2: all three of us come together around a common understanding 161 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 2: of what components and what machines necessary for the manufacture 162 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 2: of semiconductors would be controlled was essential for such controls 163 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 2: to be effective, and that required persuasion, consultation, really laying 164 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 2: out the challenge as we saw it, and it also 165 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 2: required a deep level of technical detail, which is why 166 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 2: this really was not just about the diplomats or the 167 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 2: national security advisors being in the room. It was about 168 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,200 Speaker 2: technical experts from each of the three countries really working 169 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 2: through the reality of this so that it wasn't just 170 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 2: a fly by night effort. 171 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: One policy goal was to prevent China from buying advanced 172 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: chips from companies like Nvidia, and the other was to 173 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:46,079 Speaker 1: prevent China from developing the technology to produce them domestically, 174 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: which was more what the Japanese Dutch diplomatic effort was. 175 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: Around January twentieth, literally the day you leave office, Deep Seek, 176 00:09:56,760 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: the Chinese AI Company announces a new you reasoning model 177 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 1: that performs on par with the best American models and 178 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: was able to be developed in spite of the export controls. Now, 179 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: some people say they claim it's because they actually were 180 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,199 Speaker 1: able to develop such as sophisticated technology, they didn't need 181 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: as many chips. Others say they just got around the 182 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: export controls. I don't know if you know which of 183 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: those you have more of a hypothesis to be true. 184 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: But either way, what was your reaction to this moment? 185 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 1: I mean, someone said this was basically the moment that 186 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: everything you were working on was designed to prevent. 187 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 2: Well, keep in mind, this is a I'm glad you 188 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 2: used the word moment because it was a moment. It 189 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 2: was a moment in time in an ongoing competition, and 190 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 2: of course since then, open Ai has come out with three. 191 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 2: Deep Seek has come out with yet another version of 192 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 2: its R one model, and we'll see more models coming 193 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 2: out as we go. For me, deep Seek sort of 194 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,440 Speaker 2: showed me number one the power of a concerted pr 195 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 2: campaign by China to effectively say resistance is futile. These 196 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 2: export controls have failed. Give up America. I would just 197 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: point out that it was the number one issue they 198 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 2: raised with me in every meeting, which suggests to me 199 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 2: they didn't think the export controls were totally useless. 200 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: The number one issue is why you try to prevent 201 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 1: us from buying chips? 202 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 2: Right? Why have you imposed these semiconductor export controls on us? 203 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 2: And you know, I spent a lot of time explaining 204 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 2: our theory of small yard high fence, and what we 205 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:26,719 Speaker 2: saw is the difference between a national security logic to 206 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 2: export controls in some kind of economic or technology blockade, 207 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 2: which I do not believe that we are engaged in 208 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 2: with China. 209 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: They've responded just to your small yard high fence metaphor 210 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 1: with big yard iron cut in right correct. 211 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 2: That that is what they said, And I said, well, 212 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 2: we see it very differently. I see it as a 213 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 2: small yard and a high fence. And part of the 214 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 2: reason I know it's small is I know in the 215 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 2: meetings that I'm conducting how much we're keeping out of it, 216 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 2: how much continuing technology trade there is between the US 217 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 2: and China. So but the other thing about deep Seat 218 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 2: that I think is really important for people to recognize 219 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 2: is the big breakthrough was really an open AI breakthrough 220 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 2: that then Deep Seek more or less replicated and then 221 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,560 Speaker 2: improved upon. And I don't actually know exactly I'm not 222 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 2: inside Deep Seek, so I can't say, but it seems 223 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 2: on the balance of the evidence that the deep Seek 224 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 2: story is the story that involves them having access to 225 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 2: a range of Western chips, some of which they got 226 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 2: before the export controls ever went into place, and some 227 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 2: they got between the first set in twenty two and 228 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 2: the second set in twenty three when in video basically 229 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 2: designed around the controls what they call the H eight hundred, 230 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: So there was an H one hundred, which was at 231 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 2: one point the most elite chip. In Vidia basically reduced 232 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,320 Speaker 2: the interconnect speed to get around the control created the 233 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 2: H eight hundred for the Chinese market that got fixed 234 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: in twenty three. And so I think the right way 235 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 2: to think about the export control story is it started 236 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 2: in twenty two. The first draft of those export controls 237 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 2: in twenty two we learned lessons from because this was 238 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 2: a new undertaking, and one of those lessons involved how 239 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 2: to make sure that there couldn't be this easy design around, 240 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 2: this easy workaround, and that's why we updated them in 241 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 2: twenty three and updated them again in twenty four. So 242 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 2: these are not going to be one hundred percent foolproof. 243 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 2: What they are designed to do is, to the maximum 244 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 2: extent possible, make sure that the highest end national security 245 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 2: related technology, these very high end AI chips are not 246 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,680 Speaker 2: going to China to be used against America currents allies. 247 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 2: And you know, I can't guarantee zero leakage, that it's 248 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 2: not a dynamic scenario where China and others are working 249 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 2: to get around them. We just have to keep at 250 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 2: it and continue to learn and continue to update. 251 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: So just to play a bank to you, you'll view 252 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:59,119 Speaker 1: as far from controls on exports of advanced chips being futile. 253 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: And even if deep Seat were able to distill knowledge 254 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: from open AI's models, there is a value in these 255 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: export controls. And maybe deep Seak's success was because the 256 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: export controls weren't effective until let's say twenty three, and 257 00:14:15,600 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: really your legacy will be making sure the next Deep 258 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: Seat moment doesn't happen. 259 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think realistically time will tell. What 260 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 2: I would just argue is I believe it's already had 261 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 2: an impact, because I think it has placed quite a 262 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 2: limit on China's access to an incredibly important resource for 263 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 2: frontier AI development, Compute, and that we can expect that 264 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 2: impact to be seen over the course of the rest 265 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 2: of twenty five, twenty six, twenty seven. You know, if 266 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 2: you look at public statements from Deep Seek CEO, one 267 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 2: of the things he talks about is access to Compute 268 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 2: being a challenge for him, something the Chinese government doesn't 269 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 2: like to acknowledge, but it something he's sort of very 270 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 2: publicly talked about. The China's effort to have its own 271 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 2: ship has not met with the kind of success that 272 00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 2: the Chinese propagandas want to suggest it has, either in 273 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 2: terms of their performance or in terms of the scale 274 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 2: of what they're capable of producing. They cannot produce in 275 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 2: a year anything remotely resembling what, for example, in video 276 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 2: can produce. Not to mention the Google TPUs or Trainium 277 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 2: or other American design silicon. So I think those core 278 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 2: observations are intact sitting here today in June of twenty 279 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 2: twenty five, and now let's see how things play out. 280 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: I want to talk about video for a moment. I mean, obviously, 281 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: Jensen Whang, the SEO of and Video, has been out 282 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 1: there loudly and publicly castigating in effect your policy and 283 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 1: also saying, you know, necessity is the mother of invention 284 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: and in fact us export controls. And we've heard this 285 00:15:53,440 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: argument before, spurred this great development in Chinese domestic developments 286 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: and technology. How do yours boned? 287 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 2: Well? First, it's an interesting statement is the suggestion that 288 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 2: if deep Seak had more Nvidia chips, it would not 289 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 2: have invented R one. I mean, that is a to me, 290 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 2: a kind of bizarre statement. But the argument that I 291 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 2: frequently encounter in this area is, aha, Look, China's motivated 292 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 2: when it comes to AI and motivated when it comes 293 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 2: to semiconductor production. Because you are placing limits on the 294 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: chips and the manufacturing equipment they can access, You've motivated them. 295 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 2: And this is really Jensen's argument, and I think that 296 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 2: this misses just the facts and the sequence of what's 297 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 2: unfolded over the last decade. It was China who came 298 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 2: out years before these export controls were ever in place 299 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: and announced to the world that they were going to 300 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 2: be the world leader in ai by twenty thirty. And 301 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 2: that one of the areas that made in China twenty 302 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 2: twenty five, by the way, a policy that was put 303 00:16:57,520 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: in place more than a decade ago was going to 304 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 2: focus on, was chips. And so the semiconductor export controls 305 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 2: did not create this big push by China. The semiconductor 306 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 2: export controls responded to this big push by China. And 307 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 2: so I think that this narrative of necessity as the 308 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 2: mother of invention kind of gets the sequence exactly backwards. 309 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:22,399 Speaker 2: It suggests that the big Chinese push all happened post 310 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:26,880 Speaker 2: export controls, when in fact it long predated the export controls, 311 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: and the export controls were in part motivated by saying, well, 312 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 2: wait a second, China's kind of come out to the 313 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: world and said this is what we want to do. 314 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 2: We're telling all of you as saying, well, we're not 315 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 2: going to make it easier for you, because you know, 316 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 2: we want to sustain our advantages. 317 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: Just to play devil's advocate, though. I mean, obviously, any 318 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: economy has a demand side and a supply side, right, 319 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: and clearly you know you're right. The demand side from 320 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party and the government was there get 321 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 1: to ANI supremacy by twenty thirty on shore chip manufacturing. 322 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 1: But there's a lot of demand site mandates from the 323 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:05,159 Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party which don't translate into enormous successes. The 324 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 1: supply side issue, which was US policy is saying well, 325 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,959 Speaker 1: you can't have this from US, may have ultimately been 326 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 1: a much more powerful and motivating signal to Chinese technology 327 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: companies than the dictates of their own government. 328 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 2: Well, I would make a couple points in response to that. 329 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 2: The first is that in a bunch of the other 330 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 2: key areas that China also identified mid and China twenty 331 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:31,880 Speaker 2: twenty five, you've seen huge progress in China, huge progress, right. 332 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,200 Speaker 2: So somehow the demand and supply sides lined up when 333 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 2: it came to things like robotics or electric vehicles, or 334 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 2: you go down the list of what they identified as 335 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 2: their sectors. It's not like AI stands out as something 336 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 2: that all of a sudden blipped off the map because 337 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 2: of our export control. So I find it a little 338 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 2: hard to square with what has been a very distinctive 339 00:18:56,200 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 2: presidentially dictated policy, of which there are are not many 340 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 2: that look like made in China twenty twenty five, or 341 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,359 Speaker 2: where they have put as much energy as they have 342 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 2: in this area. 343 00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 1: I know that your Chinese counterpart often like to ask 344 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 1: you this kind of rhetorical question, where's the line between 345 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: economic policy and national security? Physical question? And I'm curious, 346 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: you know, did you and President Biden look with envy 347 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: at President She's ability to onboard massive new energy onto 348 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: the grid to dictate the decision making at the top 349 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:32,959 Speaker 1: Chinese tech firms in a way that the US government 350 00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 1: and the tech firms are increasingly or often intention I mean, 351 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: was there something about the Chinese model in terms of 352 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: preparing for this new industrial and AI revolution that you 353 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 1: wish you could have borrowed? 354 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 2: Well, look, anytime you're working at the White House and 355 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 2: you're dealing with bureaucracy, red tape regulation, the thought is 356 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 2: never far from your mind. Hey, if I was just 357 00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 2: all powerful and President Biden was all powerful, we could 358 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 2: just not have to waste time with any of this. 359 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 2: But then you pause and you say, hey, wait a second, Actually, 360 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 2: democracy is a pretty good form of government one. And 361 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 2: two the American technology model, which is messier, which is 362 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 2: more decentralized, which is in many ways more maddening, also 363 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 2: really works. And it's a good thing to bet on. 364 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 2: And that's why I think we're in such a disturbing 365 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: moment right now, because, look, some of the advantages of 366 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,879 Speaker 2: the US has. One is the ability to attract talent 367 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 2: from all over the world. Another is this ecosystem a 368 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:39,960 Speaker 2: basic research funding supplied by the government, research universities, and 369 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 2: the private sector. And two of those three pillars are 370 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 2: being knocked out by this administration. It strikes me that 371 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 2: the most recent announcement saying basically, we're going to try 372 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 2: to really dramatically reduce the number of Chinese grad students 373 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:58,200 Speaker 2: and undergraduate students and researchers in the United States, all 374 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 2: of these are self harming moves because all of them 375 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 2: take away from this unique model. The US is built 376 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 2: to build and sustain an innovation edge over time. So 377 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 2: the Chinese have their way of doing it. We have 378 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 2: to look at that and say, that's a formidable competitor. 379 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 2: But it is precisely that observation that we are dealing 380 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 2: with the formidable competitor. That motivated us to say, what 381 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:22,919 Speaker 2: do we need to do on the promote side, what 382 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 2: do we need to do to push the boundaries, and 383 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 2: then what do we need to do on the protect 384 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 2: side to make sure that our most advanced technologies aren't 385 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 2: being used against us? So that's it was that sense 386 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:38,399 Speaker 2: of real understanding that this was going to be a 387 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 2: hard race in many of these different technology areas that 388 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 2: motivated us to take the policy steps that we took. 389 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: After the break, Jake Sullivan on how the Biden administration 390 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: was preparing for the possibility of agi I, a system 391 00:21:56,480 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: that is superior to humans and effectively old COCA tasks, 392 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,400 Speaker 1: and also Jake talks about the role of autonomous weapons 393 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: in current conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza. I want to 394 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,719 Speaker 1: zoom out a bit, Jake. One of the most interesting 395 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 1: conversations I've seen this year was between as reclined ere 396 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 1: I say it and Ben Buchanan, the White House Special 397 00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 1: Advisor on a AI for the Biden administration. Essentially that 398 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,919 Speaker 1: they had a conversation where Ben Buchanan said it was 399 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 1: the belief of the Biden administration that artificial general intelligence 400 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,119 Speaker 1: is going to come within the next four years, i e. 401 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: Not just AI that helps humans do tasks, but a 402 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 1: system that is superior to humans in effectively all cognitive tasks. 403 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 1: Was that your view, with those conversations you were part of. 404 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 2: I would amend it slightly to say that a premise 405 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 2: of our approach, both on the national security side and 406 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,720 Speaker 2: the writ large in the process that Ben and Bruce 407 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 2: reed led, was that that was a distinct possibility, and 408 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 2: therefore we had to plan and prepare for it. Not 409 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 2: a bold prediction that it would certainly arrive, but that 410 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 2: it was and remains a distinct possibility. 411 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: Where did you fail a debate about how proble this is. 412 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 2: My own personal view has always been I'm not sure 413 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,719 Speaker 2: because and the reason I'm definitely not sure about this 414 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 2: one is that incredibly smart people have incredibly different timetables 415 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:41,639 Speaker 2: for when AGI will arrive. And what I have to 416 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 2: do as National Security advisor is take that spectrum of 417 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 2: opinion and say, Okay, is there a sufficient degree of 418 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 2: credibility we would assign to the proposition that it could 419 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 2: come in the next four years. The answer is yes, 420 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 2: then we need to operate against that assumption because it 421 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 2: means we don't have much time to get prepared for 422 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 2: what that will mean from a national security perspective, and 423 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 2: economic perspective, a social perspective, you know, the impact on 424 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:16,320 Speaker 2: every facet of human life. And so we were operating 425 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 2: under the premise that this was a distinct possibility, but 426 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,439 Speaker 2: not that it was a certainty, because we couldn't be certain. 427 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 2: And I remain fascinated by the AGI debate today because 428 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 2: a lot of the content I consume in the debate 429 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 2: over AI is about these really quite wildly different perceptions 430 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 2: of both where we are and when the next breakthroughs 431 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,160 Speaker 2: are going to come and how. And I find that 432 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 2: just so interesting. It reminds me a little bit of 433 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,680 Speaker 2: the very intense debates over the future of the Chinese economy, 434 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 2: where you can find people saying it's going to be 435 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 2: an unstoppable juggernaut, you can find people who are saying, 436 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 2: basically it has it's hobbled by intractable problems, and everywhere 437 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 2: in between. I again in that area, I get asked, 438 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 2: where did you fall on that debate of whether the 439 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 2: Chinese economy? I said, similarly, I didn't take a fixed, 440 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 2: determined view because I had to prepare for a range 441 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 2: of different contingencies. 442 00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: I'm curious what probably is as a percentage you would assign. 443 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 1: How on Earth do you respond to this transformative hypothetical 444 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: in terms of creating policy. 445 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,600 Speaker 2: Well, in a number of ways. I mean, for starters, 446 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 2: a lot of the work around alignment as safety and 447 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,640 Speaker 2: security was work that was really stimulated by our administration 448 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,479 Speaker 2: in concert and coordination with countries around the world. You know, 449 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 2: the Bletchley Park meeting in the UK, followed by successive summits. Obviously, 450 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 2: this administration takes a different view on the question of 451 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 2: safety and alignment than we did. 452 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 1: Vance was in Europe basically saying that god rails are 453 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 1: off innovating in evading at. 454 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly exactly. The second thing was actually how we 455 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: would deal with China directly on the issue of AI risk. 456 00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 2: So not only what's it going to take for the 457 00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:02,680 Speaker 2: US to remain in the lead at the frontier, but also, 458 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 2: you know, how do we have a real dialogue for 459 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 2: a joint interest in managing risks to all of humanity, 460 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: including all Americans and all Chinese. And President Biden and 461 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 2: President She agreed to launch that dialogue when they met 462 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,639 Speaker 2: at the summit in San Francisco in twenty twenty three. 463 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: We had a first session of it in twenty four. 464 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to continue in this 465 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 2: administration or not. 466 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: What did they talk about was the framework to step 467 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 1: beyond national borders and consider a threat to humanity as 468 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: the presidents of the two most powerful countries in the world, 469 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: And what were those conversations like. 470 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,080 Speaker 2: Well, first, I don't want to overstate how far the 471 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:47,679 Speaker 2: first one got. These kinds of diplomatic engagements, especially between 472 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 2: two countries that are at once having dialogue and competing, 473 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,919 Speaker 2: are always a bit tentative, and both sides come with 474 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 2: their cards a little close to their best. But that 475 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 2: meeting did begin to expose and a common understanding of 476 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 2: some of the big risks, including the risk at the 477 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:13,200 Speaker 2: convergence of biology or biotech and artificial intelligence, the risk 478 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 2: of misalignment misaligned AI causing all manner of harm, and 479 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 2: the risk of proliferation AI getting into the hands of 480 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: bad actors who would choose to threaten both the US 481 00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 2: and China or other nation states for that matter, or 482 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 2: just seek generally to destabilize. So that first session, I 483 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 2: would say, was a warm up and it still remains 484 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 2: a task for the US and China to have a 485 00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 2: much deeper, sustained dialogue on this, something that I very 486 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 2: much support, even as I support the United States continuing 487 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 2: to do the work to stay in the lead. I 488 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 2: think it is not the essence of JD Vance's message 489 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 2: in Paris earlier this year, which was we're in for 490 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,880 Speaker 2: a race, so you know, nothing that will slow us down. 491 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,360 Speaker 2: Elation of any kind. I think we need to race 492 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 2: as fast as we can, but we also do need 493 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 2: guard rails to ensure safety and alignment. I guess the 494 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,159 Speaker 2: word safety is a bit out of vogue with this 495 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 2: administration to call it security and alignment. We do need 496 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 2: those now. At the same time, we have to pay 497 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 2: attention to the fact that if we're pursuing a bunch 498 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 2: of guardrails, maybe alongside other like minded states, and China's 499 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 2: choosing the no guardrail approach, you know, that could give 500 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: them an advantage in the race and the competition as 501 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 2: we go forward. So one of the things I draw 502 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 2: upon as a partial analogy, because it is completely imperfect, 503 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,800 Speaker 2: is the fact that we were, you know, simultaneously building 504 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 2: up our nuclear arsenals with the Soviet Union and also 505 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: beginning to think about both proliferation and the US and 506 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 2: the Soviets work together on the Non Proliferation Treaty and 507 00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 2: on control, and over the series of agreements from the 508 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 2: seventies onward, we came to understandings about arms control and 509 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 2: even arms reduction, even as we were developing more sophisticated weapons, 510 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 2: more sophisticated targeting, more sophisticated intelligence the same way. So 511 00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,959 Speaker 2: I think there are some lessons to be learned from that, 512 00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:23,400 Speaker 2: But basically the answer is that we have to essentially 513 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 2: feel our way across the river on the stones, and 514 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 2: there isn't like a map or a guidebook that will 515 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 2: tell you how to strike this balance. That is a 516 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 2: matter that is more art than science, that requires steady 517 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 2: and determined leadership from the President and the White House, 518 00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 2: and also requires a lot of technical expertise being brought 519 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 2: in house. I think the current administration's attitude is just 520 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 2: let a rip, and that concerns me, and I think 521 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 2: it puts more inputus frankly on the private sector to 522 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 2: begin thinking through how it deals with the guardrails question, 523 00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 2: because it cannot just punt the question to the White House. 524 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:00,480 Speaker 2: Since the White House is kind of said, We're not 525 00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 2: going to deal. 526 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 1: With that, pivoting away from HgI but towards something which 527 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 1: is frankly no less terrifying autonomous weapons systems. A few 528 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,719 Speaker 1: days before we recorded this interview, Russia experience, you know 529 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: what some are calling its Pearl Harbor, Ukrainian fleet of 530 00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 1: Ukrainian drones way away inside Russian borders knocking out some 531 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 1: of their nuclear aircraft. Were you surprised by this and 532 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: how did you contend with the theory of swarming autonomous 533 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: weapons becoming a reality within your term? 534 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 2: Well, to take the second question first, I mean there's 535 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,560 Speaker 2: the nation state challenge and then there's the non state 536 00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 2: actor challenge, the nation and state challenge. You know, the 537 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 2: Pentagon has quite sophisticated, quite adaptable planning processes for new 538 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 2: weapons systems, new types of technology, and new tactics coming on, 539 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 2: and they do it tremendous amount of war gaming and 540 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,640 Speaker 2: testing around that. One of the things that I was 541 00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 2: very focused on as National Security Advisor was ensuring that 542 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 2: our entire national security enterprise, the Defense Department, the intelligence community, 543 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 2: and then on the financial sanction size, the Treasury Department 544 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 2: or the Export Control side of the Commerce Department was 545 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 2: thinking about applications of both offense and defense when it 546 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 2: comes to AI. So towards the end of twenty twenty four, 547 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 2: President Biden issued a National Security Memorandum on artificial intelligence. 548 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 2: Part of that was around how do we ensure we're 549 00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:43,320 Speaker 2: capable of defending against this type of thing a drone, swarm, 550 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 2: AI enabled autonomous weapons of various kinds, and that worries 551 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 2: me greatly, But I feel like, Okay, we have a 552 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,080 Speaker 2: lane for that. We can work to be in a 553 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 2: position to deter or defend against that or counteract that. 554 00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,600 Speaker 2: The thing that keeps me up at night is that 555 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 2: decization of lethal technology. It's the extent to which an individual, 556 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:11,040 Speaker 2: a group, a highly motivated organization, whether criminal or terrorists 557 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:15,320 Speaker 2: or otherwise, can get its hands on highly precise and 558 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 2: capable and lethal systems that they can pinpoint target very 559 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:24,360 Speaker 2: far away. And what the Ukraine case shows us is, 560 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,840 Speaker 2: with some degree of resourcefulness and inventiveness, very far away 561 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 2: can really mean very far away from one's borders, including 562 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 2: in quite protected parts of a big country like Russia. 563 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 2: That's a pretty scary thought, even for the homeland of 564 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 2: the United States and that's something that if I were 565 00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 2: sitting as National Security advisor today, I'd be diving deep 566 00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:50,640 Speaker 2: into the Ukraine case to say, what exactly does this 567 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 2: tell us about the vulnerability and risk fear in the 568 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 2: United States. Was I surprised by what the Ukrainians did? Guess? 569 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:02,480 Speaker 2: And no, no, I'm not surprised. That they're constantly adaptive 570 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,240 Speaker 2: and capable, and frankly, I'm quite proud of the work 571 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,720 Speaker 2: that we played in helping to fund and see their 572 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 2: drone program over the years. But they deserve the credit 573 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 2: for really taking that drone program to an incredible level 574 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 2: and then coming up with an operation as sophisticated and 575 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:21,719 Speaker 2: complex as this. So yes, like the actual iteration was 576 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,320 Speaker 2: surprising in a kind of you know, holy cow, I'm 577 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,440 Speaker 2: really impressed by that way. But the fact that they 578 00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,800 Speaker 2: are doing this kind of thing is just a credit 579 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: to their to their bravery and skill. 580 00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 1: Gaza reports that autonomous weapons being used by Israel making 581 00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 1: their own kill decisions, including kill decisions that include civilian debts. 582 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 1: Do you know that to be true? I do not 583 00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: know that to be true. The Israeli Defense Forces indicated 584 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 1: in conversations with their counterparts in the Pentagon and the 585 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:10,840 Speaker 1: State Department that they have a human in the decision 586 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:15,280 Speaker 1: making mode when strikes are taken. So I can't speak 587 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 1: to the reports which I've also seen, and I don't 588 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 1: know about every individual case, but that's the communication that 589 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 1: occurred between the US and the IDEA. When I talked 590 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:27,399 Speaker 1: to you around the world. I mean, there are two 591 00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,879 Speaker 1: things that come up. One is with the world from Afghanistan, 592 00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 1: and the other is the failure to constrain Israel's response 593 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,200 Speaker 1: to the Hamas attacks on October seventh in terms of 594 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: civilian casualties in Gaza. How much did that frustrate your 595 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:53,879 Speaker 1: ability to bring together a coalition? But I think your 596 00:34:53,880 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 1: mission was and is, which is that democratic values infuse 597 00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 1: tech leadership. 598 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 2: Well, I think about these cases quite differently, you know, 599 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 2: sitting here today in twenty twenty five, I think the 600 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,760 Speaker 2: United States is much better off that we're not entering 601 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 2: our twenty fifth year or more in Afghanistan sending American 602 00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 2: men and women to fight and die there. So I 603 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 2: think President Biden got the big call right, and the 604 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 2: withdrawal itself was challenging and it was tragic. But when 605 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,960 Speaker 2: you end in war after twenty years with all of 606 00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,320 Speaker 2: the decisions and the pathologies that are piled up is 607 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:31,840 Speaker 2: not going to be easy. It was never going to 608 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,919 Speaker 2: be easy. And anyone who would suggest otherwise, I think, 609 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 2: you know, you know, does not have credibility. So I 610 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,880 Speaker 2: think that you know, I would do things differently. And 611 00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 2: I've said this repeatedly publicly in terms of that actual 612 00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:48,600 Speaker 2: draw down, and we learned a lot of lessons from it. 613 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,600 Speaker 2: But fundamentally it is a good thing the United States 614 00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,920 Speaker 2: is not in Afghanistan now. When it comes to Gaza, 615 00:35:55,960 --> 00:36:01,239 Speaker 2: it's just an absolute damn tragedy in every respect. Just 616 00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 2: the gut wrenching images to this day, innocent people dying, 617 00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:11,319 Speaker 2: innocent people going without food, the tragedy going back to 618 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 2: the seventh itself of October, and the largest massacre of 619 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,440 Speaker 2: Jews since the Holocaust, the tragedy of the hostages and 620 00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 2: their families. All of these are just awful. And I 621 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 2: spent from October seventh of twenty three to January twentieth 622 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,279 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five living with the burden that we 623 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,239 Speaker 2: couldn't stop it until the very end when we had 624 00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 2: a cease fire and hostage deal in place. As President 625 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,840 Speaker 2: Biden left office and I wrestle with that. I wrestle 626 00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:43,680 Speaker 2: with that every day. 627 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,520 Speaker 1: When to an Oscar was then more the administration could 628 00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 1: have done to prevent some of that Cornasian tragedy. 629 00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 2: Look, that's a question I will keep asking myself and 630 00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 2: keep asking others. You know, the main argument people make is, 631 00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,799 Speaker 2: you know, just cut off weapons to Israel. And I 632 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,399 Speaker 2: think one thing we were very much contending with over 633 00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,839 Speaker 2: the course of twenty twenty four is Israel wasn't just 634 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 2: facing Hamas, they were facing Hisbella, the Syrian militias, the 635 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:14,279 Speaker 2: Iraqi militias, the Huthis, and even around itself. So they 636 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,560 Speaker 2: were being attacked on multiple fronts. And it's it's hard 637 00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,239 Speaker 2: to walk away from an ally and a circumstance like that. 638 00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,480 Speaker 2: But you know, I spent a lot of time personally, 639 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 2: day in day out in my office working on the 640 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:29,240 Speaker 2: issue of humanitarian assistance and getting food and medicine into Gaza, 641 00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,000 Speaker 2: and we didn't get enough in. But I think we 642 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,880 Speaker 2: did get a sufficient quantity in, not enough for what 643 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 2: people needed. 644 00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,000 Speaker 1: I mean, the real question is how much is mortal 645 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:46,680 Speaker 1: authority the United States mortal authority required to exercise a 646 00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 1: kind of self power that is critical to prevail in 647 00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,240 Speaker 1: if we don't inque to tech war tech competition with China. 648 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,080 Speaker 2: Look, I think that our ability to work closely with 649 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,239 Speaker 2: like minded democracies who share our values, who have a 650 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,320 Speaker 2: vision for the world that is positive, that is consistent 651 00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,480 Speaker 2: with the vision we have for ourselves as a country, 652 00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,280 Speaker 2: this is a critical part of the long term competition 653 00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:19,560 Speaker 2: with China. And I actually believe that one of the 654 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:23,320 Speaker 2: things that has been painful to watch is the extent 655 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 2: to which the President Trump, in approaching the competition to China, 656 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,080 Speaker 2: has chosen basically to go to war with all of 657 00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,680 Speaker 2: our allies at the same time, rather than try to 658 00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,279 Speaker 2: work with them to try to come up with a 659 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,640 Speaker 2: common and united strategy for lack of a better term, 660 00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,000 Speaker 2: the free world to prevail in this competition. 661 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,960 Speaker 1: You know, obviously you've been asked recently by political on stage. 662 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,359 Speaker 1: Were you surprised by President Biden's debate performance? You know 663 00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,080 Speaker 1: what did you know? You said, Yes, I was surprised 664 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,239 Speaker 1: and know he was always shot when I interacted with him. 665 00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 1: So I don't want to ask you to rehearse that again. 666 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,560 Speaker 1: But I guess, as somebody who's been a kind of 667 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:04,320 Speaker 1: leader in the Democrat Party, for you know, fifteen plus years, 668 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:09,600 Speaker 1: how does the party get over this? Who knew what when? 669 00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:11,800 Speaker 1: A series of questions. 670 00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:16,120 Speaker 2: Look, obviously, I've been involved in political campaigns in the past, 671 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,200 Speaker 2: so you know I have personal opinions on lots of 672 00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,640 Speaker 2: things about politics. But in the Biden administration, I served 673 00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:26,200 Speaker 2: as National Security Advisor and my job was to focus 674 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:32,160 Speaker 2: on the national security issues. So I haven't weighed in 675 00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:36,120 Speaker 2: on the big political doing and throwing around all this. 676 00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,080 Speaker 2: All I've been able to do is relate my experience 677 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,279 Speaker 2: with the president in the oval, in the situation room, 678 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,239 Speaker 2: and that's where I will continue to be in this 679 00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,640 Speaker 2: conversation let other people hash out where the party goes 680 00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 2: from here. 681 00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: Just to close, kind of coming back to the kind 682 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 1: of widest sweep of technology and history and the role 683 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:02,200 Speaker 1: of the US you've talked, I think about how tech 684 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: history has had these two waves to date, the first 685 00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: one being the onset of the Internet, the hope it 686 00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:13,759 Speaker 1: carried democrazation, and the second one being how some repressive 687 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:17,440 Speaker 1: governments were able to harness this technology for spying, for harassment, 688 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:23,959 Speaker 1: for repression. What do you hope the third wave will 689 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,480 Speaker 1: be and how do we get there well. 690 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,560 Speaker 2: I hope the first the third wave will avoid the 691 00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,600 Speaker 2: to my view, a certain blind optimism of the first wave, 692 00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,840 Speaker 2: where we thought, hey, this is so great, it's going 693 00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:42,440 Speaker 2: to mean that freedom and democracy reign everywhere, but also 694 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:46,400 Speaker 2: avoid a sense of doom and dread from the second 695 00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 2: wave that you know, we're all screwed. I think that 696 00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:55,960 Speaker 2: the third wave, if it goes right, will mean that 697 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:59,719 Speaker 2: we are able to harness the most exciting opportunities of art, 698 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:05,040 Speaker 2: if you're so intelligence for human health, for human well being, 699 00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:11,120 Speaker 2: you know, for advancing the capacity of people to communicate 700 00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,240 Speaker 2: better as supposed to worse, and that we will mitigate 701 00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,759 Speaker 2: the downside risks. We're not going to eliminate them. We're 702 00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:19,239 Speaker 2: going to have to live with them. They're going to 703 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,080 Speaker 2: be real and acute, but that we mitigate them, and 704 00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,600 Speaker 2: that the opportunities end up creating a circumstance where AI 705 00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:26,759 Speaker 2: is working much more for us than against us. Can 706 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:28,799 Speaker 2: we achieve that? I don't know. I think this is 707 00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,520 Speaker 2: going to be a close front of thing, because I'm 708 00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:36,560 Speaker 2: definitely not a doomer, but I am certainly nervous about 709 00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:39,600 Speaker 2: whether we have the tools and the capacity and the 710 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:43,640 Speaker 2: foresight right now to build the kind of guardrails necessary 711 00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,200 Speaker 2: that will both allow AI to flourish for the positive 712 00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 2: but also you know, guard against the downside. I don't 713 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,360 Speaker 2: think that we're right now on track, and I think 714 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,040 Speaker 2: that if this administration isn't going to step up to 715 00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:01,799 Speaker 2: take leadership in this, it's going to require others, many 716 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,120 Speaker 2: outside of government, to take leadership in this, because it 717 00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:09,120 Speaker 2: is a project that we cannot dally on given the 718 00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,640 Speaker 2: possibility that this is coming at us very very fast. 719 00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,120 Speaker 1: Jakesonlan, thank you so much for joining UK Stuff today. 720 00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:20,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. 721 00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,560 Speaker 1: For tech Stuff. I'm os Valoshin. This episode was produced 722 00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:47,400 Speaker 1: by Eliza Dennis and Adriana Tapia. It was executive produced 723 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,279 Speaker 1: by me caraen Price and Kate Osborne for Kaleidoscope and 724 00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:56,200 Speaker 1: Katrina norvelve iHeart Podcasts. Jack Insley mixed this episode and 725 00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:59,680 Speaker 1: Kyle Murdoch wrote our theme song. Join us on Friday 726 00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,879 Speaker 1: for the week Tech when we'll run through the tech 727 00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,480 Speaker 1: headlines you may have missed and please rate, review and 728 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:09,040 Speaker 1: reach out to us at tech Stuff podcast at gmail 729 00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:16,400 Speaker 1: dot com.