1 00:00:15,276 --> 00:00:23,876 Speaker 1: Pushkin. This thing still on. Michael Lewis here. Guess what. 2 00:00:24,636 --> 00:00:26,996 Speaker 1: I'm working on a second season of Against the Rules. 3 00:00:27,476 --> 00:00:29,356 Speaker 1: I had so much fun doing season one that I 4 00:00:29,396 --> 00:00:32,236 Speaker 1: decided to keep going. I'm back in the field with 5 00:00:32,276 --> 00:00:35,836 Speaker 1: my producers, talking to people and poking around. The next 6 00:00:35,876 --> 00:00:38,316 Speaker 1: season is going to be about coaches and why the 7 00:00:38,396 --> 00:00:41,236 Speaker 1: role of coach has expanded so far beyond sports in 8 00:00:41,276 --> 00:00:46,436 Speaker 1: American life. If everybody hates the ref, everyone seems to 9 00:00:46,556 --> 00:00:50,676 Speaker 1: love the coach these days. In season two, I'm going 10 00:00:50,716 --> 00:00:56,836 Speaker 1: to explore why it's out next spring. Meanwhile, I have 11 00:00:56,916 --> 00:00:58,956 Speaker 1: something else for you to listen to. It's a new 12 00:00:58,996 --> 00:01:03,196 Speaker 1: show from Pushkin Industries by a British writer I really admire. 13 00:01:03,876 --> 00:01:07,276 Speaker 1: His name is Tim Harford. He's a familiar voice on 14 00:01:07,276 --> 00:01:10,836 Speaker 1: the BBC. Whereas most recent series was about the modern 15 00:01:10,836 --> 00:01:14,556 Speaker 1: inventions we might not have noticed but would shape our lives, 16 00:01:16,156 --> 00:01:20,516 Speaker 1: this new show from Tim is called Cautionary Tales, and 17 00:01:20,596 --> 00:01:25,796 Speaker 1: it's full of spectacular stories about other people's mistakes, my 18 00:01:25,876 --> 00:01:29,836 Speaker 1: favorite kind of mistakes. Tim and his team of actors 19 00:01:29,956 --> 00:01:35,396 Speaker 1: re enact airship disasters and great frauds and safety systems 20 00:01:35,436 --> 00:01:38,036 Speaker 1: gone awry, and then he tells us what we can 21 00:01:38,116 --> 00:01:41,516 Speaker 1: learn from it all. We've got one of the first 22 00:01:41,556 --> 00:01:46,276 Speaker 1: episodes right here. This one is an unbelievable story about 23 00:01:46,276 --> 00:01:50,796 Speaker 1: an enormous tanker about to crash into the coast of England. 24 00:01:51,796 --> 00:01:55,556 Speaker 1: Give it a listen, then go subscribe to Cautionary Tales 25 00:01:55,636 --> 00:01:58,916 Speaker 1: wherever you listen to your podcasts to hear more from Tim. 26 00:01:59,676 --> 00:02:02,036 Speaker 1: And I promise I'll be back in this feed before 27 00:02:02,076 --> 00:02:07,276 Speaker 1: you know it. Here's Tim Harford. I opened the wrapping 28 00:02:07,316 --> 00:02:10,316 Speaker 1: paper hurriedly with nervous hands, excited to get at the 29 00:02:10,356 --> 00:02:14,756 Speaker 1: gift inside. Little did I know, disaster was about to 30 00:02:14,956 --> 00:02:19,356 Speaker 1: enter my previously happy childhood. It wasn't a disaster visited 31 00:02:19,436 --> 00:02:22,156 Speaker 1: on mean or my family. It was a catalog of 32 00:02:22,236 --> 00:02:25,756 Speaker 1: disasters for everyone else. For the gift was a book, 33 00:02:26,836 --> 00:02:29,276 Speaker 1: and it was titled, in bold letters on a blood 34 00:02:29,276 --> 00:02:34,636 Speaker 1: red background, the World's Greatest Mistakes. The stories were set 35 00:02:34,676 --> 00:02:39,276 Speaker 1: out like a trashy and exciting tabloid newspaper. Some were absurd, 36 00:02:39,276 --> 00:02:42,636 Speaker 1: like the bride who accidentally married the best man. Some 37 00:02:42,716 --> 00:02:46,516 Speaker 1: of them were famous tragedies, the Titanic slipping beneath the 38 00:02:46,716 --> 00:02:50,596 Speaker 1: icy sea, funny or sad. All of them fascinated me, 39 00:02:50,996 --> 00:02:54,236 Speaker 1: and I realized something that has guided me throughout my life. 40 00:02:54,876 --> 00:02:58,676 Speaker 1: Learning from other people's mistakes is a lot less painful 41 00:02:58,876 --> 00:03:02,796 Speaker 1: than learning from your own. My name is Tim Harford. 42 00:03:03,156 --> 00:03:07,396 Speaker 1: Some people call me the undercover Economist. I use scientific 43 00:03:07,476 --> 00:03:10,876 Speaker 1: ideas to help people think more clearly about the world 44 00:03:11,276 --> 00:03:14,516 Speaker 1: in my books, my ted Talks, my BBC shows, and 45 00:03:14,676 --> 00:03:18,636 Speaker 1: my column for the Financial Times. That may sound all 46 00:03:18,756 --> 00:03:21,476 Speaker 1: very grown up, but part of me is that little 47 00:03:21,516 --> 00:03:28,076 Speaker 1: boy who loved stories of catastrophe, mistake and mayhem. So 48 00:03:28,156 --> 00:03:31,436 Speaker 1: I still seek out and collect such stories, but now 49 00:03:31,556 --> 00:03:34,956 Speaker 1: I probe the details. I challenge the orthodox view and 50 00:03:35,156 --> 00:03:38,596 Speaker 1: look for the root causes and ponder how disaster could 51 00:03:38,636 --> 00:03:42,556 Speaker 1: have been prevented. In short, I look for the painless 52 00:03:42,636 --> 00:03:45,796 Speaker 1: lessons they can teach me. And now I want to 53 00:03:45,796 --> 00:03:52,516 Speaker 1: share some of these cautionary tales with you too. Each 54 00:03:52,676 --> 00:03:57,556 Speaker 1: story has a moral, each story is true, and each story, 55 00:03:58,116 --> 00:04:02,556 Speaker 1: if you're not careful, could happen to you. So gather 56 00:04:02,676 --> 00:04:19,076 Speaker 1: closer and I'll begin. We pray thee Lord, not that 57 00:04:19,156 --> 00:04:23,396 Speaker 1: rex should happen, but that if any Rex do happen, 58 00:04:24,156 --> 00:04:26,676 Speaker 1: thou wilt guide them to the silly isles for the 59 00:04:26,756 --> 00:04:32,876 Speaker 1: benefit of the poor. Inhabitants. That's an old prayer from 60 00:04:32,916 --> 00:04:36,116 Speaker 1: the Isles of Scilly. The isles are just off the 61 00:04:36,156 --> 00:04:40,036 Speaker 1: coast of Cornwall, the southwest tip of Great Britain, and 62 00:04:40,196 --> 00:04:44,356 Speaker 1: that prayer has been answered many times. The rocks around 63 00:04:44,396 --> 00:04:48,156 Speaker 1: the islands have a fearsome reputation and it's well earned. 64 00:04:49,076 --> 00:04:52,756 Speaker 1: One autumn night in seventeen oh seven, the Royal Navy 65 00:04:52,836 --> 00:04:57,116 Speaker 1: lost its way in a storm. The flagship HMS Association 66 00:04:57,636 --> 00:05:01,676 Speaker 1: struck a rock and went down in minutes. Eight hundred 67 00:05:01,676 --> 00:05:06,036 Speaker 1: men drowned behind it. HMS Saint George hit the rocks 68 00:05:06,036 --> 00:05:10,516 Speaker 1: and became stuck. So did HMS Phoenix, did HS Firebrow. 69 00:05:11,276 --> 00:05:16,356 Speaker 1: HMS Romney lost her entire crew. HMS Eagle was shattered 70 00:05:16,356 --> 00:05:21,276 Speaker 1: on the cruel stone. Hundreds more sailors died. That dreadful 71 00:05:21,396 --> 00:05:24,676 Speaker 1: night was one of the worst disasters in the history 72 00:05:24,756 --> 00:05:33,996 Speaker 1: of the British Navy. Local legend has it that there 73 00:05:34,196 --> 00:05:38,276 Speaker 1: was one notable survivor, that the Commander in Chief of 74 00:05:38,316 --> 00:05:42,116 Speaker 1: the British Fleets, Sir Cloudsley Shovel, was washed up on 75 00:05:42,156 --> 00:05:45,596 Speaker 1: the beaches of the Aisles of Scilly, but was strangled 76 00:05:46,076 --> 00:05:49,996 Speaker 1: by a local woman who fancied wearing his Emerald ring 77 00:05:50,156 --> 00:05:54,636 Speaker 1: herself if she had been praying the old prayer God 78 00:05:55,436 --> 00:06:01,156 Speaker 1: or the devil had been listening. It is a dark tale, 79 00:06:01,916 --> 00:06:04,716 Speaker 1: but the story I shall tell you today is a 80 00:06:04,756 --> 00:06:11,956 Speaker 1: far stranger one. It was some time after dawn on 81 00:06:12,036 --> 00:06:18,716 Speaker 1: Saturday March the eighteenth, nineteen sixty seven. Martyr Christie was 82 00:06:18,756 --> 00:06:22,836 Speaker 1: a langoustier, a French lobster boat, fishing for crayfish and 83 00:06:22,996 --> 00:06:26,236 Speaker 1: crab between the mainland and the Isles of Scilly. Twenty 84 00:06:26,236 --> 00:06:30,676 Speaker 1: one miles further west on deck was Captain Gui Folich, 85 00:06:31,356 --> 00:06:35,516 Speaker 1: another langoustier, was near by, both of them enjoying rich pickings. 86 00:06:35,556 --> 00:06:39,356 Speaker 1: A few hundred yards north of the Seven Stones. The 87 00:06:39,396 --> 00:06:42,556 Speaker 1: Seven Stones make up a vicious reef about one third 88 00:06:42,636 --> 00:06:45,356 Speaker 1: of the way between the Isles of Scilly and the mainland. 89 00:06:46,236 --> 00:06:50,356 Speaker 1: At low tide, the unyielding rocks are visible, but even 90 00:06:50,396 --> 00:06:53,596 Speaker 1: at high tide there marked by a lighthouse vessel warning 91 00:06:53,636 --> 00:06:57,796 Speaker 1: ships to stay away. Gui Folich looked up from his 92 00:06:57,836 --> 00:07:02,516 Speaker 1: lobster lions to see an unexpected sight, a vast black 93 00:07:02,636 --> 00:07:07,156 Speaker 1: hull coming over the horizon from an unusual direction. He 94 00:07:07,276 --> 00:07:11,156 Speaker 1: was surprised. A major vessel in that position would usually 95 00:07:11,196 --> 00:07:14,716 Speaker 1: have passed outside of the aisles of Scilly rather than 96 00:07:14,876 --> 00:07:19,516 Speaker 1: squeezing between them and the mainland. True, a big ship 97 00:07:19,756 --> 00:07:22,236 Speaker 1: could come between the aisles of Scilly and the mainland, 98 00:07:22,436 --> 00:07:25,636 Speaker 1: passing on either side of the seven Stones, but it 99 00:07:25,716 --> 00:07:29,156 Speaker 1: would be a little on the tight side. And this ship, 100 00:07:29,756 --> 00:07:34,396 Speaker 1: a supertanker, was very big. Indeed, in fact, it was 101 00:07:34,436 --> 00:07:40,836 Speaker 1: the thirteenth biggest ship in the world. On the lighthouse vessel, 102 00:07:41,036 --> 00:07:44,156 Speaker 1: the two seamen on watch saw the tanker approaching too. 103 00:07:44,476 --> 00:07:47,036 Speaker 1: Have you seen this? Have you? Yeah? Look at that 104 00:07:47,156 --> 00:07:51,916 Speaker 1: big bastro coming up. Gifolich could see the huge ship 105 00:07:52,236 --> 00:07:57,476 Speaker 1: coming straight towards him as he fished kayak, but he 106 00:07:57,556 --> 00:08:01,996 Speaker 1: wasn't worried. In between him and the oncoming juggernaut were 107 00:08:01,996 --> 00:08:05,756 Speaker 1: the seven Stones. He later said, I was sure that 108 00:08:05,956 --> 00:08:08,996 Speaker 1: before ever eating us, you would go on to the rugs. 109 00:08:09,316 --> 00:08:13,636 Speaker 1: He yelled to his men, stop work, you're going to 110 00:08:13,716 --> 00:08:18,196 Speaker 1: see something extraordinary. All seven of them lined up on 111 00:08:18,236 --> 00:08:21,436 Speaker 1: the rail of Marta Christie to watch the oil tanker 112 00:08:21,556 --> 00:08:29,716 Speaker 1: bear closer and closer, four miles, three miles. Folich was 113 00:08:29,796 --> 00:08:32,796 Speaker 1: sure it was doomed. It just wasn't possible to turn 114 00:08:32,836 --> 00:08:38,476 Speaker 1: a supertanker that quickly. Was it? Actually? Folich wasn't quite right. 115 00:08:39,596 --> 00:08:44,196 Speaker 1: The tanker, whose name was Torry Canyon did still have 116 00:08:44,356 --> 00:08:48,076 Speaker 1: room to turn. This wasn't a storm tossed fleet of 117 00:08:48,156 --> 00:08:52,196 Speaker 1: sailing ships fumbling through the darkness. The weather was good, 118 00:08:52,716 --> 00:08:56,836 Speaker 1: the visibility was good. Torry Canyon was a superb ship, 119 00:08:56,876 --> 00:09:01,036 Speaker 1: in fine working order and armed with radar. The seven 120 00:09:01,076 --> 00:09:04,276 Speaker 1: Stones were clearly marked on every chart, as well as 121 00:09:04,276 --> 00:09:08,396 Speaker 1: being identified by the position of the lighthouse vessel. But 122 00:09:08,756 --> 00:09:16,236 Speaker 1: Tory Canyon still wasn't turning. Gather close and listen to 123 00:09:16,356 --> 00:09:30,636 Speaker 1: my cautionary tail. Nobody knew it at the time, but 124 00:09:30,716 --> 00:09:34,196 Speaker 1: the trouble all started with a radio message from milford Haven, 125 00:09:34,476 --> 00:09:38,916 Speaker 1: the harbor towards which Torry Canyon was sailing. Milford Haven 126 00:09:38,996 --> 00:09:41,596 Speaker 1: is a major UK port, and the thing you need 127 00:09:41,636 --> 00:09:44,036 Speaker 1: to know about ports in the UK is that the 128 00:09:44,116 --> 00:09:47,716 Speaker 1: difference between high tide and low tide can be enormous. 129 00:09:48,236 --> 00:09:51,436 Speaker 1: What's more, there are high tides and high tides, some 130 00:09:51,676 --> 00:09:55,596 Speaker 1: are higher than others. The message from Milford Haven was 131 00:09:55,676 --> 00:10:00,276 Speaker 1: simple enough. Torry Canyon needed to hurry. If the ship 132 00:10:00,396 --> 00:10:04,516 Speaker 1: didn't arrive by eleven pm on Saturday evening, March the eighteenth, 133 00:10:04,716 --> 00:10:09,076 Speaker 1: nineteen sixty seven, it would miss the extra high tide 134 00:10:09,116 --> 00:10:11,316 Speaker 1: wouldn't be able to slip into the harbor and dock. 135 00:10:12,116 --> 00:10:15,916 Speaker 1: It would then have to wait another six days before 136 00:10:15,916 --> 00:10:19,276 Speaker 1: the tide would once more be high enough. Missing the 137 00:10:19,356 --> 00:10:24,996 Speaker 1: eleven pm deadline would mean a very expensive delay. That 138 00:10:25,156 --> 00:10:29,756 Speaker 1: news put Captain Pastrengo Rugiati under pressure. He had no 139 00:10:29,836 --> 00:10:32,876 Speaker 1: more than one or two hours margin, not a lot, 140 00:10:33,356 --> 00:10:36,756 Speaker 1: but Rujiahti had coped with worse. He'd been a navigator 141 00:10:36,796 --> 00:10:39,796 Speaker 1: on an Italian submarine during the war, had survived a 142 00:10:39,916 --> 00:10:43,076 Speaker 1: German prison camp, and had been commanding oil tankers for 143 00:10:43,116 --> 00:10:47,876 Speaker 1: twenty years. Captain Rujati was in many ways a genial fellow, 144 00:10:48,076 --> 00:10:51,196 Speaker 1: chatty and hospitable. He liked to eat good food, but 145 00:10:51,316 --> 00:10:54,436 Speaker 1: insisted he shouldn't be served anything that wasn't available to 146 00:10:54,476 --> 00:10:57,836 Speaker 1: his crew. As a result, the men on Torry Canyon 147 00:10:58,116 --> 00:11:02,116 Speaker 1: ate very well. But Rujiahti was also a detailsman who 148 00:11:02,196 --> 00:11:06,596 Speaker 1: kept a close eye on his officers. Rugiasty was extremely conscientious. 149 00:11:06,836 --> 00:11:10,556 Speaker 1: He was a man who wanted to know absolute, loutely everything. 150 00:11:10,916 --> 00:11:14,036 Speaker 1: Perhaps because of that, Ruggiati stayed up late on the 151 00:11:14,076 --> 00:11:17,916 Speaker 1: Friday night before landfall preparing the paperwork for when they docked. 152 00:11:18,436 --> 00:11:20,876 Speaker 1: It was only at half past three in the morning 153 00:11:21,036 --> 00:11:23,756 Speaker 1: that he went to bed, leaving instructions that he was 154 00:11:23,796 --> 00:11:26,476 Speaker 1: to be awakened first thing when the Aisles of Silly 155 00:11:26,516 --> 00:11:30,476 Speaker 1: were sighted. It was half past six in the morning 156 00:11:30,756 --> 00:11:33,316 Speaker 1: when the Aisles of Scilly appeared on the radar, about 157 00:11:33,396 --> 00:11:38,436 Speaker 1: thirty five miles away. First Officer Silvano Bonfilio was on duty, 158 00:11:38,836 --> 00:11:41,156 Speaker 1: and the position of the ship relative to the Isles 159 00:11:41,156 --> 00:11:46,196 Speaker 1: of Scilly was an unpleasant surprise. Torry Canyon, plowing through 160 00:11:46,236 --> 00:11:49,356 Speaker 1: the night across the ocean had been pushed off its 161 00:11:49,396 --> 00:11:53,036 Speaker 1: intended course by the current and the winds. It was 162 00:11:53,116 --> 00:11:58,556 Speaker 1: now headed between the islands and the mainland. Bonfilio immediately 163 00:11:58,636 --> 00:12:02,476 Speaker 1: changed course, steering away from the channel, figuring that Captain 164 00:12:02,556 --> 00:12:06,476 Speaker 1: Rugiati had intended to pass outside of the islands, but 165 00:12:06,556 --> 00:12:10,436 Speaker 1: he hedged his beds. Rather than out to sea or 166 00:12:10,476 --> 00:12:13,956 Speaker 1: closer to the mainland, he was bearing straight towards the 167 00:12:14,036 --> 00:12:19,236 Speaker 1: Isles of Scilly. He then woke up Captain Ruggiati. Rugiati 168 00:12:19,356 --> 00:12:23,156 Speaker 1: was angry. Was it because Bonfilio had changed course without checking, 169 00:12:23,636 --> 00:12:25,836 Speaker 1: Was it because the new course was neither one thing 170 00:12:25,876 --> 00:12:30,036 Speaker 1: nor another? Or was he just sleep deprived will our 171 00:12:30,076 --> 00:12:33,716 Speaker 1: original heaving of eighteen degrees be free of the Sillies? Yes, 172 00:12:34,036 --> 00:12:37,596 Speaker 1: then continue on course eighteen degrees. I intend to pass 173 00:12:37,636 --> 00:12:41,716 Speaker 1: to the starboard of the Silly Isles. When Filio was 174 00:12:41,836 --> 00:12:45,076 Speaker 1: so surprised he had to check that it understood the order, 175 00:12:45,236 --> 00:12:50,236 Speaker 1: which irritated Ruggiati. Still further Still, a maneuver shouldn't be 176 00:12:50,236 --> 00:12:54,316 Speaker 1: too perilous. It was perfectly possible to get even a 177 00:12:54,396 --> 00:13:02,516 Speaker 1: large ship through. The standard manual for navigating the waters 178 00:13:02,556 --> 00:13:05,356 Speaker 1: around the coast of the British Isles is called the 179 00:13:05,476 --> 00:13:09,756 Speaker 1: Channel Pilot. If Captain Ruggiati had consulted a copy, here's 180 00:13:09,756 --> 00:13:12,316 Speaker 1: what it would have said. The actual width of the 181 00:13:12,396 --> 00:13:15,076 Speaker 1: channel between the nearest of the Silly Islands and Land's 182 00:13:15,196 --> 00:13:18,276 Speaker 1: End is twenty one miles, but as the route taken 183 00:13:18,316 --> 00:13:21,116 Speaker 1: by all large vessels should be eastward of seven stones 184 00:13:21,276 --> 00:13:24,956 Speaker 1: light vessel, the navigable channel can only be considered as 185 00:13:25,076 --> 00:13:29,036 Speaker 1: twelve miles wide. The lights render the passage perfectly simple 186 00:13:29,036 --> 00:13:32,436 Speaker 1: at night as well as by day in ordinarily clear weather. 187 00:13:32,916 --> 00:13:34,876 Speaker 1: But as there is no part of the coast of 188 00:13:34,876 --> 00:13:38,636 Speaker 1: England more subject to sudden changes of weather, the greatest 189 00:13:38,716 --> 00:13:41,916 Speaker 1: vigilance is necessary and a vessel's position, even in the 190 00:13:41,996 --> 00:13:45,676 Speaker 1: clearest weather, should be checked by cross bearings at short intervals. 191 00:13:46,996 --> 00:13:50,236 Speaker 1: But Captain Rugiati Alas did not have a copy of 192 00:13:50,276 --> 00:13:54,156 Speaker 1: the channel pilot on board, and so he missed two 193 00:13:54,476 --> 00:13:58,716 Speaker 1: important pieces of wisdom. First, if you want to go 194 00:13:58,796 --> 00:14:04,116 Speaker 1: between the Isles of Scilly and the mainland, be careful. Second, 195 00:14:04,636 --> 00:14:08,236 Speaker 1: pass between the mainland and the seven Stones. There is 196 00:14:08,276 --> 00:14:10,756 Speaker 1: an alternative route between the seven Stones and the Aisles 197 00:14:10,756 --> 00:14:14,036 Speaker 1: of Silly themselves, but the channel pilot doesn't mention it 198 00:14:14,076 --> 00:14:17,396 Speaker 1: because it's narrower, six and a half miles wide rather 199 00:14:17,476 --> 00:14:20,716 Speaker 1: than twelve. Why take the narrower channel when you could 200 00:14:20,716 --> 00:14:24,156 Speaker 1: take the broader one. Of course, you could still fit 201 00:14:24,196 --> 00:14:27,316 Speaker 1: an oil tanker through the narrower gap, even an oil 202 00:14:27,356 --> 00:14:30,556 Speaker 1: tanker that's nearly as big as the Chrysler building, but 203 00:14:30,676 --> 00:14:34,836 Speaker 1: you'd be cutting it close. You'd be better and nothing 204 00:14:34,876 --> 00:14:56,276 Speaker 1: went wrong. Inertia is a powerful thing. That's true for 205 00:14:56,356 --> 00:14:59,356 Speaker 1: an oil tanker the size of Torry Canyon, which needed 206 00:14:59,516 --> 00:15:02,676 Speaker 1: nearly five minutes to make a ninety degree turn, during 207 00:15:02,676 --> 00:15:05,276 Speaker 1: which time it would travel a mile and a half 208 00:15:05,316 --> 00:15:10,196 Speaker 1: at cruising speed. But inertia is a powerful thing for humans. Too. 209 00:15:10,996 --> 00:15:16,036 Speaker 1: We also sometimes struggle to change course. Psychologists have identified 210 00:15:16,036 --> 00:15:20,676 Speaker 1: a strong bias towards the status quo. For example, whether 211 00:15:20,716 --> 00:15:23,116 Speaker 1: we sign up for a workplace pension plan or not 212 00:15:23,516 --> 00:15:26,996 Speaker 1: seems to depend on whatever the status quo is. If 213 00:15:26,996 --> 00:15:29,796 Speaker 1: the default option is to sign up, we sign up. 214 00:15:30,036 --> 00:15:32,636 Speaker 1: If the default is to stay out, we stay out. 215 00:15:33,436 --> 00:15:39,716 Speaker 1: As I say, inertia is powerful. Psychologists who study accidents 216 00:15:39,796 --> 00:15:43,396 Speaker 1: have a name for a particular form of inertia. They 217 00:15:43,436 --> 00:15:48,916 Speaker 1: call it plan continuation bias. It's best known in aviation. 218 00:15:49,556 --> 00:15:52,596 Speaker 1: Pilots form a plan and then are reluctant to change it, 219 00:15:53,076 --> 00:15:58,276 Speaker 1: even if the circumstances suggest they should. The pilots themselves 220 00:15:58,316 --> 00:16:03,036 Speaker 1: have another name for it, get their itis. The classic 221 00:16:03,076 --> 00:16:05,836 Speaker 1: form of get their itis is an approach to an 222 00:16:05,836 --> 00:16:09,596 Speaker 1: airfield with a storm coming in. If you and well 223 00:16:09,636 --> 00:16:13,316 Speaker 1: before the storm arrives, no problem. If the storm arrives 224 00:16:13,396 --> 00:16:17,156 Speaker 1: before you land, that's not a crisis either. It's a hassle. 225 00:16:17,396 --> 00:16:20,036 Speaker 1: You have to divert to another airfield, with all the delay, 226 00:16:20,276 --> 00:16:23,916 Speaker 1: expense and annoyance that implies. But you do it because 227 00:16:23,916 --> 00:16:29,196 Speaker 1: you don't want to fly into a dangerous storm. The 228 00:16:29,356 --> 00:16:33,116 Speaker 1: risk comes, and the storm is closing in, but there's 229 00:16:33,156 --> 00:16:37,196 Speaker 1: still a window of opportunity to land. The landing strip 230 00:16:37,276 --> 00:16:41,236 Speaker 1: is so close, just minutes away. Tunnel vision sets in, 231 00:16:41,636 --> 00:16:44,876 Speaker 1: people start to hurry, Margins for error are stripped away. 232 00:16:45,716 --> 00:16:49,076 Speaker 1: Usually there's no harm done. The pilot lands just as 233 00:16:49,116 --> 00:16:53,156 Speaker 1: the storm rips across, and congratulates himself or herself for 234 00:16:53,316 --> 00:16:58,036 Speaker 1: keeping cool and showing skill under pressure. But sometimes the 235 00:16:58,076 --> 00:17:03,196 Speaker 1: consequences are more serious. One study of get their Itis 236 00:17:03,196 --> 00:17:06,836 Speaker 1: looked at twenty occasions when thunderstorms had closed in at 237 00:17:06,876 --> 00:17:13,076 Speaker 1: Hartsfield Jackson, Atlanta's major international airport. Again and again, pilots 238 00:17:13,116 --> 00:17:17,116 Speaker 1: decided to chant a risky landing, risky in the sense 239 00:17:17,196 --> 00:17:21,396 Speaker 1: that the Federal Aviation Administration's official guidelines would have advised 240 00:17:21,396 --> 00:17:25,596 Speaker 1: against it. One plane after another would land under ever 241 00:17:25,836 --> 00:17:31,676 Speaker 1: more perilous conditions, until eventually one flight crew would resist 242 00:17:31,716 --> 00:17:36,036 Speaker 1: the inertia and decide to divert elsewhere. At that point, 243 00:17:36,156 --> 00:17:40,876 Speaker 1: every subsequent plane would also decide to divert. The madness 244 00:17:41,036 --> 00:17:44,836 Speaker 1: only ended when someone set an example and changed the plan. 245 00:17:51,316 --> 00:17:54,356 Speaker 1: I'm no airline pilots, but I sometimes suffer from get 246 00:17:54,396 --> 00:17:57,076 Speaker 1: their itis in my own life. Perhaps you do too. 247 00:17:57,676 --> 00:18:00,996 Speaker 1: For me, it tends to emerge when dealing with family logistics. 248 00:18:01,196 --> 00:18:03,596 Speaker 1: I've got three children at two different schools, and they 249 00:18:03,636 --> 00:18:06,196 Speaker 1: all have their hobbies and sports and all usual things. 250 00:18:06,956 --> 00:18:09,036 Speaker 1: I'm sure many parents will be familiar with the play 251 00:18:09,316 --> 00:18:13,316 Speaker 1: spinning that this sometimes involves. But then something goes wrong. 252 00:18:13,796 --> 00:18:16,116 Speaker 1: The cars in the shop to be repaired, No problem, 253 00:18:16,156 --> 00:18:18,996 Speaker 1: we can bike instead. Then someone needs to be at 254 00:18:19,036 --> 00:18:21,836 Speaker 1: home to meet the plumber. We make contingency plans and 255 00:18:21,916 --> 00:18:24,116 Speaker 1: they seem like they'll be fine, but then a fresh 256 00:18:24,196 --> 00:18:28,716 Speaker 1: errand appears, or a babysitter calls to cancel. As complications mount, 257 00:18:28,756 --> 00:18:32,596 Speaker 1: the plan starts to resemble an increasingly precarious assembly of 258 00:18:32,676 --> 00:18:36,876 Speaker 1: stages and steps, lift, swaps and rendezvous. It's a Rube 259 00:18:36,916 --> 00:18:41,716 Speaker 1: Goldberg fever dream of an itinerary. And then, if I'm lucky, 260 00:18:42,236 --> 00:18:45,396 Speaker 1: either I or my wife will find enough headspace to 261 00:18:45,436 --> 00:18:52,196 Speaker 1: say this is crazy. Someone's going to have to skip 262 00:18:52,276 --> 00:18:54,876 Speaker 1: dance class tonight. We'll call the plumber to see if 263 00:18:54,916 --> 00:18:59,476 Speaker 1: tomorrow's okay. Instead, we'll replace the entire time and motion 264 00:18:59,636 --> 00:19:04,996 Speaker 1: nightmare with something radically simpler. But that's hard to do 265 00:19:05,596 --> 00:19:09,796 Speaker 1: because of the inertia, because of the plan continuation by us, 266 00:19:10,276 --> 00:19:13,276 Speaker 1: and the more the pressure mounts, the harder it is 267 00:19:13,316 --> 00:19:18,116 Speaker 1: to see clearly just how precarious everything has become. I 268 00:19:18,196 --> 00:19:21,636 Speaker 1: become so fixated on executing the plan that I don't 269 00:19:21,716 --> 00:19:25,876 Speaker 1: have a moment to realize that it's now a stupid plan. 270 00:19:29,596 --> 00:19:32,596 Speaker 1: Captain Rugiati was under pressure to reach the harbor at 271 00:19:32,596 --> 00:19:35,156 Speaker 1: Milford Haven in time, and had been woken with the 272 00:19:35,276 --> 00:19:38,516 Speaker 1: unwelcome news that the ship was off course too far 273 00:19:38,596 --> 00:19:42,916 Speaker 1: towards the mainland. If he'd stopped to think or to 274 00:19:42,996 --> 00:19:45,996 Speaker 1: talk to his officers, he would have realized that he 275 00:19:46,116 --> 00:19:49,076 Speaker 1: still had time to turn and go the long way 276 00:19:49,156 --> 00:19:53,196 Speaker 1: round outside the Aisles of Scilly. He only had an 277 00:19:53,196 --> 00:19:56,356 Speaker 1: hour or two to spare, but a brief calculation would 278 00:19:56,356 --> 00:19:59,836 Speaker 1: have revealed that the detour would have cost just twenty 279 00:19:59,876 --> 00:20:04,476 Speaker 1: nine minutes. Yet he didn't pause to reflect. He snapped 280 00:20:04,476 --> 00:20:07,156 Speaker 1: at Bonfilio and ordered him to stick to the course 281 00:20:07,196 --> 00:20:10,916 Speaker 1: that would now cut inside the Isles of Scilly. Nor 282 00:20:10,956 --> 00:20:13,556 Speaker 1: did he reflect that, since his ship had already been 283 00:20:13,556 --> 00:20:16,996 Speaker 1: deflected by the current and the wind, those forces might 284 00:20:17,036 --> 00:20:20,356 Speaker 1: well continue to work upon the ship, moving it out 285 00:20:20,396 --> 00:20:24,356 Speaker 1: of its intended position. Under time pressure, he began to 286 00:20:24,396 --> 00:20:28,836 Speaker 1: suffer get their itis. His plan was risky, and his 287 00:20:28,916 --> 00:20:36,436 Speaker 1: plan was not about to change. At eight eighteen am, 288 00:20:36,476 --> 00:20:40,436 Speaker 1: a junior officer calculated their position, this being the days 289 00:20:40,476 --> 00:20:43,196 Speaker 1: before GPS. He did it with the ship's charts, a 290 00:20:43,276 --> 00:20:47,796 Speaker 1: compass bearing, and a radar reading old school, but the 291 00:20:47,876 --> 00:20:51,516 Speaker 1: inexperienced officer was anxious. He wasn't convinced he'd got the 292 00:20:51,516 --> 00:20:56,356 Speaker 1: ship's position exactly right, but he didn't speak up. After all, 293 00:20:56,356 --> 00:20:58,516 Speaker 1: there'd be another chance to take a fix in ten 294 00:20:58,516 --> 00:21:03,716 Speaker 1: minutes or so. Captain Rugiati wasn't speaking up either, as 295 00:21:03,716 --> 00:21:07,636 Speaker 1: the ship steamed north at sixteen knots nearly twenty miles 296 00:21:07,676 --> 00:21:10,796 Speaker 1: an hour. He had already decided which course he would take, 297 00:21:11,596 --> 00:21:14,436 Speaker 1: but he hadn't told his crew, which meant that they 298 00:21:14,516 --> 00:21:17,356 Speaker 1: hadn't had a chance to comment, and they didn't feel 299 00:21:17,436 --> 00:21:22,396 Speaker 1: entitled to ask. Captain Rugatti had actually decided to pass 300 00:21:22,596 --> 00:21:26,116 Speaker 1: through the narrow channel, which involved bending the ship's course 301 00:21:26,156 --> 00:21:31,156 Speaker 1: in a long, slow curve to the left. Why Perhaps 302 00:21:31,196 --> 00:21:35,076 Speaker 1: because it was the most direct route, but mostly because 303 00:21:35,796 --> 00:21:39,276 Speaker 1: well why not? To me? It was, they say, But 304 00:21:39,476 --> 00:21:42,236 Speaker 1: should he not have taken just a few more minutes 305 00:21:42,276 --> 00:21:45,476 Speaker 1: to avoid the narrow route? That was never in my mind. 306 00:21:47,596 --> 00:21:51,596 Speaker 1: That's a revealing turn of phrase. Never, in my mind, 307 00:21:52,116 --> 00:21:56,436 Speaker 1: Pastrenger Rugiati didn't even consider the possibility of going through 308 00:21:56,476 --> 00:21:59,636 Speaker 1: the wider channel. And while that might seem strange to 309 00:21:59,716 --> 00:22:03,436 Speaker 1: you or me, it's a natural feature of planned continuation 310 00:22:03,556 --> 00:22:07,076 Speaker 1: by us. As the tunnel vision develops. We don't even 311 00:22:07,156 --> 00:22:10,476 Speaker 1: think about alternatives to our ishor plan. We don't have 312 00:22:10,516 --> 00:22:29,916 Speaker 1: the bandwidth. We continue to plow on. In two thousand 313 00:22:29,916 --> 00:22:33,156 Speaker 1: and five, a young boy was rushed into a hospital 314 00:22:33,156 --> 00:22:37,236 Speaker 1: emergency room. He suffered from asthma, and he was in distress. 315 00:22:37,556 --> 00:22:41,196 Speaker 1: He was finding it harder to breathe and harder and harder, 316 00:22:41,396 --> 00:22:46,436 Speaker 1: and then his breathing stopped. The medical team quickly strapped 317 00:22:46,436 --> 00:22:49,316 Speaker 1: an oxygen mask on to the boy. That should have helped, 318 00:22:49,756 --> 00:22:54,036 Speaker 1: but instead his heart stopped beating two. There were eight 319 00:22:54,276 --> 00:22:57,196 Speaker 1: trained medical professionals in the room, taking it in turns 320 00:22:57,236 --> 00:23:01,516 Speaker 1: to perform CPR on the boy. Still no pulse, Still 321 00:23:01,956 --> 00:23:07,436 Speaker 1: no breathing. The minutes ticked by a doctor slid a 322 00:23:07,476 --> 00:23:10,076 Speaker 1: breathing tube down the boy's throat. No thing's happening. Is 323 00:23:10,116 --> 00:23:13,316 Speaker 1: the tube in position? The tube's fine? I checked, Is 324 00:23:13,316 --> 00:23:16,756 Speaker 1: there any pulse? Still nothing? Let's take the breathing tube 325 00:23:16,756 --> 00:23:20,956 Speaker 1: out and try the airbag again. It's not helping. No, 326 00:23:21,156 --> 00:23:24,556 Speaker 1: it wasn't helping. And the reason it wasn't helping was 327 00:23:24,596 --> 00:23:28,476 Speaker 1: because the breathing apparatus was broken. It would have taken 328 00:23:28,516 --> 00:23:31,876 Speaker 1: a few seconds to check if any of the five 329 00:23:31,956 --> 00:23:36,236 Speaker 1: nurses or three doctors had thought to check, but they 330 00:23:36,276 --> 00:23:39,676 Speaker 1: didn't think, not until the boy had been deprived of 331 00:23:39,716 --> 00:23:46,996 Speaker 1: oxygen for ten minutes. Thankfully, this wasn't a tragedy. It 332 00:23:47,116 --> 00:23:50,356 Speaker 1: was a training exercise. Instead of a real boy, it 333 00:23:50,476 --> 00:23:52,476 Speaker 1: was a medical dummy that was lying on the bed 334 00:23:52,796 --> 00:23:57,116 Speaker 1: failing to produce a simulated pulse or simulated respiration because 335 00:23:57,116 --> 00:24:04,956 Speaker 1: the medical team didn't step back and think. This training 336 00:24:04,996 --> 00:24:09,556 Speaker 1: scenario was conducted nineteen times, and videos of the exercise 337 00:24:09,636 --> 00:24:13,876 Speaker 1: were studded by Marlist Christiansen, a professor of organizational behavior 338 00:24:14,556 --> 00:24:19,876 Speaker 1: and previously the doctor Professor. Christiansen found that some medical 339 00:24:19,916 --> 00:24:22,916 Speaker 1: teams took just seconds to identify the problem with a 340 00:24:22,956 --> 00:24:28,356 Speaker 1: breathing equipment. This isn't working, it's broken. That's impressive, But 341 00:24:28,476 --> 00:24:31,996 Speaker 1: perhaps more impressive were the teams who started with the 342 00:24:32,036 --> 00:24:35,036 Speaker 1: wrong theory about the problem, but didn't get stuck on 343 00:24:35,116 --> 00:24:38,676 Speaker 1: that idea. They didn't fixate on one possibility, or keep 344 00:24:38,716 --> 00:24:42,396 Speaker 1: repeating the same approach over and over again. They would 345 00:24:42,396 --> 00:24:45,556 Speaker 1: talk through what they were thinking and challenge themselves and 346 00:24:45,716 --> 00:24:50,716 Speaker 1: each other. They could change course, but not every team 347 00:24:50,796 --> 00:24:54,676 Speaker 1: did that. Many teams would hammer away at the same plan, 348 00:24:55,116 --> 00:24:57,836 Speaker 1: regardless of the signs that it wasn't going to work. 349 00:24:58,356 --> 00:25:01,756 Speaker 1: They didn't step back and think, They didn't talk things through, 350 00:25:02,396 --> 00:25:08,716 Speaker 1: They just kept going. Could Captain Rugiati avoid the same fate. 351 00:25:15,156 --> 00:25:18,916 Speaker 1: Captain Rugatti is now trying to curve his ship through 352 00:25:18,956 --> 00:25:22,236 Speaker 1: the narrower channel. He doesn't even have the full six 353 00:25:22,276 --> 00:25:25,236 Speaker 1: and a half miles to aim at because he's approaching 354 00:25:25,276 --> 00:25:29,196 Speaker 1: at an angle. He's left himself precious little margin for error. 355 00:25:29,756 --> 00:25:33,396 Speaker 1: As it is, Torry Canyon is heading straight for the 356 00:25:33,436 --> 00:25:38,476 Speaker 1: submerged rocks at half past eight. As the slow, slow 357 00:25:38,596 --> 00:25:43,156 Speaker 1: turn begins, two fishing boats appear on the radar, the 358 00:25:43,236 --> 00:25:47,956 Speaker 1: two French langoustiers that are watching the oncoming supertanker with astonishment. 359 00:25:48,916 --> 00:25:52,316 Speaker 1: Rugiati had planned to keep turning, but now he has 360 00:25:52,356 --> 00:25:56,036 Speaker 1: to ensure he doesn't hit the boats. Suddenly, floats come 361 00:25:56,076 --> 00:25:58,756 Speaker 1: into view. There are a sign of fishing nets beneath 362 00:25:58,756 --> 00:26:02,836 Speaker 1: the surface. Tory Canyon can't possibly avoid them all and 363 00:26:03,036 --> 00:26:07,276 Speaker 1: slices through one set of nets. Captain Rugiati pauses his 364 00:26:07,396 --> 00:26:11,916 Speaker 1: turn in order not to shred thet He's now heading 365 00:26:12,076 --> 00:26:14,756 Speaker 1: very close to where he thinks the stones are, but 366 00:26:14,876 --> 00:26:17,116 Speaker 1: he still hopes to be able to resume his turn 367 00:26:17,476 --> 00:26:22,836 Speaker 1: after passing the nets. But meanwhile, all the while, the 368 00:26:22,956 --> 00:26:28,436 Speaker 1: current has been gently, insistently pushing Torry Canyon closer and 369 00:26:28,636 --> 00:26:33,436 Speaker 1: closer to the seven Stones. At this point, Rugiati seems 370 00:26:33,436 --> 00:26:36,396 Speaker 1: to have woken up to the danger. He has precious 371 00:26:36,396 --> 00:26:40,036 Speaker 1: little room for maneuver. Rather than curving out of danger, 372 00:26:40,236 --> 00:26:43,836 Speaker 1: he's heading directly towards the seven Stones. He was later 373 00:26:43,876 --> 00:26:45,876 Speaker 1: asked whether he would have been heading that way if 374 00:26:45,916 --> 00:26:49,356 Speaker 1: not for the fishing boats and their nets. No, only 375 00:26:49,356 --> 00:26:52,756 Speaker 1: a madman would have followed. In northern course, Rugiati now 376 00:26:52,796 --> 00:26:55,996 Speaker 1: knows his heading is dangerous. His plan to go through 377 00:26:56,036 --> 00:27:00,116 Speaker 1: the narrow channel is being frustrated, but as the pressure rises, 378 00:27:00,316 --> 00:27:04,356 Speaker 1: he can't step back and form a better plan. Why 379 00:27:04,396 --> 00:27:07,476 Speaker 1: doesn't he slow down? Why doesn't he abandon his plan 380 00:27:07,596 --> 00:27:11,036 Speaker 1: to turn left into the channel and instead turned sharply 381 00:27:11,116 --> 00:27:15,876 Speaker 1: right into deep water. That was never in my mind. Never. 382 00:27:17,756 --> 00:27:21,116 Speaker 1: When get their itis takes hold there are a lot 383 00:27:21,156 --> 00:27:24,196 Speaker 1: of things that should be in our minds but aren't. 384 00:27:25,676 --> 00:27:29,036 Speaker 1: At eight thirty eight am, Captain Ruggiati takes a look 385 00:27:29,076 --> 00:27:33,316 Speaker 1: at the charts. His junior officer has just taken another bearing. 386 00:27:33,996 --> 00:27:36,876 Speaker 1: Ruggiati is an old hand. He can see at once 387 00:27:36,956 --> 00:27:40,196 Speaker 1: that it can't be right. The crosses marking the ship's 388 00:27:40,196 --> 00:27:44,276 Speaker 1: position should be at regular intervals, but they're not. One 389 00:27:44,276 --> 00:27:48,036 Speaker 1: of the bearings is wrong. He doesn't know which. Maybe 390 00:27:48,036 --> 00:27:52,516 Speaker 1: they're both wrong. Captain Ruggiati doesn't know where he is. 391 00:27:53,676 --> 00:27:56,716 Speaker 1: The junior officer takes another bearing with the Captain's help. 392 00:27:57,276 --> 00:27:59,796 Speaker 1: The new fix shows that the ship is closer to 393 00:27:59,796 --> 00:28:04,356 Speaker 1: the seven Stones than they're realized, less than three miles. Remember, 394 00:28:04,676 --> 00:28:07,276 Speaker 1: Torry Canyon takes a mile and a half to make 395 00:28:07,316 --> 00:28:12,196 Speaker 1: a ninety degree turn on his trawler. Watching with horror 396 00:28:12,796 --> 00:28:17,516 Speaker 1: guy Foliage has already concluded that it's all over. Torry 397 00:28:17,556 --> 00:28:23,636 Speaker 1: Canyon can't possibly avoid the rocks, but he's wrong. There 398 00:28:23,956 --> 00:28:27,476 Speaker 1: is still time. There's still time to turn into deep water. 399 00:28:27,756 --> 00:28:30,556 Speaker 1: There's even still time to turn into the channel, which 400 00:28:30,636 --> 00:28:33,636 Speaker 1: is what Pastrengo Rugiati has been trying to do for 401 00:28:33,716 --> 00:28:36,636 Speaker 1: the last four miles and so, even though it doesn't 402 00:28:36,636 --> 00:28:39,836 Speaker 1: really make sense anymore, that's what he continues to try 403 00:28:39,876 --> 00:28:44,076 Speaker 1: to do. Helmsman can't do their wheel, Yes, Captain hard 404 00:28:44,116 --> 00:28:47,516 Speaker 1: to part. Go to three fifty, Take her to three, 405 00:28:48,356 --> 00:28:51,676 Speaker 1: take her to three twenty. Rugiati is ordering an ever 406 00:28:51,836 --> 00:28:57,876 Speaker 1: tighter turn into the channel. Captain. Captain, the ship's are 407 00:28:57,916 --> 00:29:04,796 Speaker 1: turning even now there's still time. She's not turning. Captain 408 00:29:04,956 --> 00:29:10,036 Speaker 1: Rugiati needs to think, why isn't the ship turning? Perhaps 409 00:29:10,076 --> 00:29:13,436 Speaker 1: the fuel pumps controlling the rudder have broken. Rajati has 410 00:29:13,476 --> 00:29:17,076 Speaker 1: seen that happen before. He tries to dial the engine room, 411 00:29:17,116 --> 00:29:20,436 Speaker 1: but instead he makes the kind of mistake you make 412 00:29:20,756 --> 00:29:23,596 Speaker 1: when you've had three hours sleep and you only have 413 00:29:23,716 --> 00:29:28,956 Speaker 1: seconds to solve a problem. He calls the officers dining room. Ah, captain, 414 00:29:29,236 --> 00:29:34,076 Speaker 1: are you ready for breakfast? Well? God deal, God is 415 00:29:34,116 --> 00:29:38,756 Speaker 1: a pig. That's some serious blasphemy from a good Italian Catholic. 416 00:29:39,836 --> 00:29:44,076 Speaker 1: It's the blasphemy of a man who knows time has 417 00:29:44,196 --> 00:30:12,956 Speaker 1: just run out. There's a photograph of Pastrenga Rugiati. I 418 00:30:12,996 --> 00:30:15,996 Speaker 1: can't get out of my head. He's scrunched up in 419 00:30:16,076 --> 00:30:20,356 Speaker 1: a confined space, his knees tucked into his chest as 420 00:30:20,396 --> 00:30:24,396 Speaker 1: if to protect himself. His eyes rolled sharply to one side, 421 00:30:24,836 --> 00:30:29,356 Speaker 1: his face ghoulishly lit from below. He's wearing a hospital 422 00:30:29,436 --> 00:30:33,596 Speaker 1: gown and he's hiding under a hospital bed. That's where 423 00:30:33,636 --> 00:30:37,836 Speaker 1: he was when the paparazzi found him. He looks terrified. 424 00:30:38,916 --> 00:30:44,396 Speaker 1: He's broken. His ship was gone, impaling itself onto the 425 00:30:44,436 --> 00:30:48,716 Speaker 1: Seven Stones at full speed with a noise. One crewman said, 426 00:30:49,036 --> 00:30:55,356 Speaker 1: look a slab of lead being ripped by spikes. Watching 427 00:30:55,436 --> 00:30:59,596 Speaker 1: from his trawler, Gefolich turned to his men, that's the 428 00:30:59,716 --> 00:31:04,596 Speaker 1: end of her. She'll never get off. He was right. 429 00:31:05,836 --> 00:31:08,916 Speaker 1: The crew escaped safely, but during an attempt to re 430 00:31:09,116 --> 00:31:12,356 Speaker 1: float the ship, there was a huge explosion. One of 431 00:31:12,356 --> 00:31:16,956 Speaker 1: the salvage team was killed. By then, Torry Canyon's back 432 00:31:17,116 --> 00:31:21,316 Speaker 1: was already broken and her underbelly sliced open by the 433 00:31:21,396 --> 00:31:24,596 Speaker 1: teeth of the reef. She was bleeding one hundred and 434 00:31:24,716 --> 00:31:29,476 Speaker 1: nineteen thousand tons of crude oil into coastal waters. It 435 00:31:29,556 --> 00:31:35,436 Speaker 1: was an environmental catastrophe. The oil spill was unprecedented. Even today, 436 00:31:35,716 --> 00:31:38,076 Speaker 1: there are places where you can still see the dark 437 00:31:38,196 --> 00:31:42,196 Speaker 1: stain on the coast. Torry Canyon was, at the time 438 00:31:42,636 --> 00:31:48,916 Speaker 1: the largest shipwreck in history and the largest maritime insurance claim. 439 00:31:49,156 --> 00:31:53,396 Speaker 1: Rugiati took responsibility. He was the captain, and he was, 440 00:31:53,476 --> 00:31:56,196 Speaker 1: he said, in charge of the best ship in their 441 00:31:56,196 --> 00:32:00,596 Speaker 1: world for a ship's captain. His ship is all and 442 00:32:00,796 --> 00:32:04,956 Speaker 1: I have lost mine. I'm terrified by the dimensions which 443 00:32:04,996 --> 00:32:11,116 Speaker 1: the accident has assumed. The inquiry was conducted in private. 444 00:32:11,636 --> 00:32:15,516 Speaker 1: Journalists weren't allowed in, but the manager of the hotel 445 00:32:15,636 --> 00:32:18,316 Speaker 1: where the proceedings were being held told one of them 446 00:32:18,356 --> 00:32:21,636 Speaker 1: that he had seen Captain Rugiati. I had a glimpse 447 00:32:21,636 --> 00:32:24,996 Speaker 1: of this man. I had the impression of a man finished. 448 00:32:26,436 --> 00:32:28,996 Speaker 1: He very seldom have so strong an impression from so 449 00:32:29,076 --> 00:32:32,796 Speaker 1: short of seeing a man. I must answer for everything, 450 00:32:33,236 --> 00:32:39,116 Speaker 1: for everyone. I must carry the cross alone. I wish 451 00:32:39,156 --> 00:32:43,596 Speaker 1: I could tell the people of Cornwall how sorry I am, 452 00:32:43,636 --> 00:32:51,516 Speaker 1: And he really was sorry. It was very bad. The 453 00:32:51,596 --> 00:32:56,916 Speaker 1: disaster broke Rugiati. He spent months in hospital recovering from 454 00:32:56,916 --> 00:33:00,316 Speaker 1: the strain and the anxiety and the heartbreak, which is 455 00:33:00,356 --> 00:33:06,076 Speaker 1: where the eager photographers found him. A transcript of the 456 00:33:06,156 --> 00:33:10,996 Speaker 1: inquiry was leaked to the journalist Richard Petro. The tanker 457 00:33:10,996 --> 00:33:14,036 Speaker 1: owners were keen to downplay any fault on their part, 458 00:33:14,396 --> 00:33:17,116 Speaker 1: including the fact that the steering had broken in the past, 459 00:33:17,676 --> 00:33:21,116 Speaker 1: confusing Captain Ruggiati when the ship had failed to turn. 460 00:33:22,196 --> 00:33:25,316 Speaker 1: But why had the ship failed to turn in those 461 00:33:25,436 --> 00:33:30,116 Speaker 1: last moments? It was a small thing. After Ruggiahti had 462 00:33:30,156 --> 00:33:34,036 Speaker 1: accidentally called the officer's dining room and slammed down the receiver, 463 00:33:34,476 --> 00:33:38,396 Speaker 1: he looked across the bridge. From his position by the telephone, 464 00:33:38,716 --> 00:33:42,276 Speaker 1: he could see that someone had inadvertently knocked the steering 465 00:33:42,356 --> 00:33:48,076 Speaker 1: control lever. The ship's steering had simply been disconnected. All 466 00:33:48,156 --> 00:33:51,636 Speaker 1: Ruggiati needed to do was switched the lever back and 467 00:33:51,756 --> 00:33:56,356 Speaker 1: dragged Torry Canyon over to port. But he had lost time. 468 00:33:57,156 --> 00:34:00,196 Speaker 1: With thirty seconds more to maneuver, I could have avoided 469 00:34:00,276 --> 00:34:05,596 Speaker 1: the rocks. Ruggiati had made a plan, and as one 470 00:34:05,596 --> 00:34:09,636 Speaker 1: small problem after another made the plan riskier and risk 471 00:34:09,716 --> 00:34:14,316 Speaker 1: here he hadn't been able to adjust. Many leader things 472 00:34:14,356 --> 00:34:19,836 Speaker 1: added up to one big disaster. That's true. The deadline, 473 00:34:20,116 --> 00:34:24,156 Speaker 1: the currents, the fishing boats, the error from his junior officer, 474 00:34:24,516 --> 00:34:29,556 Speaker 1: the steering control. It's bad luck thirty seconds before the 475 00:34:29,636 --> 00:34:34,876 Speaker 1: sheep she was saved. But the missing thirty seconds aren't 476 00:34:34,916 --> 00:34:39,876 Speaker 1: what interests me. What interests me are the two hours 477 00:34:40,116 --> 00:34:44,436 Speaker 1: that Ruggiati had to save his Torry Canyon, the best 478 00:34:44,756 --> 00:34:49,156 Speaker 1: ship in the world. He had two hours to reroot 479 00:34:49,236 --> 00:34:52,756 Speaker 1: outside the aisles of Scilly, two hours to slow the 480 00:34:52,756 --> 00:34:56,156 Speaker 1: ship down, two hours to ask for advice or to 481 00:34:56,196 --> 00:34:59,596 Speaker 1: turn towards the wider channel, but he didn't do any 482 00:34:59,636 --> 00:35:06,156 Speaker 1: of those things. After the exploitative photograph was released, there 483 00:35:06,236 --> 00:35:09,876 Speaker 1: was a surge of sympathy for Ruggiati from around the world. 484 00:35:10,236 --> 00:35:14,356 Speaker 1: People wrote letters of consolation. One that caught my eye 485 00:35:14,476 --> 00:35:17,196 Speaker 1: was from a thirteen year old boy from County Cork 486 00:35:17,316 --> 00:35:21,316 Speaker 1: in Ireland. I see beautiful tankers, but I'm sure I've 487 00:35:21,356 --> 00:35:24,236 Speaker 1: never seen one as beautiful as yours. I thought and 488 00:35:24,316 --> 00:35:26,996 Speaker 1: prayed for you. I am sure you will sail the 489 00:35:27,036 --> 00:35:33,796 Speaker 1: seas again. Pastrengo Rougiati never did. His mistake was just 490 00:35:34,196 --> 00:35:37,836 Speaker 1: too grave, But at the same time, it was also 491 00:35:37,996 --> 00:35:42,596 Speaker 1: all too human. After all, it's our nature to be 492 00:35:42,756 --> 00:35:56,196 Speaker 1: slow to change course. You've been listening to Cautionary Tales. 493 00:35:56,476 --> 00:35:58,596 Speaker 1: If you'd like to find out more about the ideas 494 00:35:58,636 --> 00:36:01,996 Speaker 1: in this episode, including links to our sources, the show 495 00:36:02,036 --> 00:36:06,556 Speaker 1: notes are on my website, Tim Harford dot com. Cautionary 496 00:36:06,556 --> 00:36:10,116 Speaker 1: Tales is written and presented by me Tim Harford. Our 497 00:36:10,196 --> 00:36:14,396 Speaker 1: producers are Ryan Dilley and Marilyn Rust. The sound designer 498 00:36:14,396 --> 00:36:18,916 Speaker 1: and mixer was Pascal Wise, who also composed the amazing music. 499 00:36:20,196 --> 00:36:25,076 Speaker 1: This season stars Alan Cumming, Archie Panchabi, Toby Stevens and 500 00:36:25,276 --> 00:36:30,796 Speaker 1: Russell Tovey, with enso Celenti, Ed Gochen, Melanie Gutteridge, Mercia Munroe, 501 00:36:31,196 --> 00:36:36,836 Speaker 1: Rufus Wright and introducing Malcolm Gladwell. Thanks to the team 502 00:36:36,876 --> 00:36:42,436 Speaker 1: at Pushkin Industries, Julia Barton, Heather Faine, mil LaBelle, Carlie Milliori, 503 00:36:42,796 --> 00:36:46,876 Speaker 1: Jacob Weisberg and of course the mighty Malcolm Gladwell. And 504 00:36:47,036 --> 00:36:49,436 Speaker 1: thanks to my colleagues at The Financial Times