1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Today is April first, and you're listening to Big Fish 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: Small Pot here on the Fish Stripes podcast network. I'm 3 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,640 Speaker 1: Andrew Rudall here with you on Fridays and Wednesdays throughout 4 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:16,479 Speaker 1: the season, and I'm going to take a moment to 5 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: call you out. Might be one of those things where 6 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:28,479 Speaker 1: you feel like Met's owner Steve Cohen, who took to 7 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: Twitter in August of twenty twenty one to say, it's 8 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: hard to understand how professional hitters can be this unproductive. 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: At face value, it makes sense if you hit three 10 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:51,200 Speaker 1: hundred year good. Ted Williams offered that analysis of his own. 11 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: It's the only field of endeavor where a man can 12 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: succeed three times out of ten and be considered a 13 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 1: good performer. Even the greats kind of recognize the limitation 14 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: on the type of success that can be expected within 15 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:13,320 Speaker 1: the sport. Ted Williams also offered the advice think, don't 16 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: just swing. Think about the pitcher, what he threw you 17 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: last time, up his best pitch, who's up next? Think 18 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: with the pre requisite that you have to be able 19 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:31,639 Speaker 1: to hit the fastball to play in the big leagues, 20 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: and ultimately offering that the key to hitting is just playing, 21 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: working at it the very real work ethic needed to 22 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: be one of the game's best. Thinking through those parameters 23 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: put forth by Ted Williams himself, it isn't a surprise 24 00:01:55,040 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: why good hitters are so rare. Looking at fangrafts totally 25 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 1: a tangent, But their team positional rankings are out this 26 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: week and I really can't recommend them enough. They're a 27 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: great read just to catch up on every team, every 28 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: position grouping. Some good insightful analysis there too, if you're 29 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 1: trying to catch up on that like kind of analytical 30 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: edge of baseball, and I found myself checking them out 31 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: today checking out are twenty four. It's a favorite statistic 32 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: of mind. Run expectancy in the twenty four base out state, 33 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: rather how many more runs a player produced when compared 34 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: to what you would expect in a random situation, Like 35 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: you're like stratomatic dice roll of a player that was 36 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: in the twenty four different on base situations like a 37 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:03,200 Speaker 1: runner on second and third being a situation, or two 38 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 1: outs and a runner on second and third being another situation. 39 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: You'd totally get it all twenty four of those possibilities. 40 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 1: It's how a hitter actually pushed the game along. It's 41 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:17,240 Speaker 1: a stat that punishes you for grounding into a double 42 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 1: play or a force out and rewards you for moving 43 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 1: the offense forward better than a dice roll probably would. 44 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,640 Speaker 1: It puts a lot of offense in a single number. 45 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: At the top of the leaderboard for the last couple 46 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: of seasons, you find Juan Soto, Freddy Freeman, Bryce Harper, 47 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: Fernando Testis, Junior Jose Ramirez. It's exactly who you might 48 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: expect at the top of the team leaderboard. The Dodgers, 49 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: the Rays, the Gastros, the Braves. Again, exactly who you 50 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: would expect. What's really interesting about this stat is how 51 00:03:55,240 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: few hitters have a reliable output. Looking at twenty twenty 52 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty one at hitters with at least thirty 53 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: played appearances to weed out the small sample sizes and 54 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: those players that kind of just were fluky for a 55 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: year and not like provenly good over time, two hundred 56 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: and sixty five of seven hundred and three hitters have 57 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: been better than zero in RI twenty four, So like 58 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: thirty seven percent of Major League Baseball hitters have been 59 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 1: better than if baseball were random, just so like a 60 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 1: baseline looking kind of like what would be like a 61 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: good hitter ten runs above random over two years, which 62 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: really like doesn't sound like too much of a baseline 63 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: to be like a good hitter. That's like five runs 64 00:04:56,240 --> 00:05:01,119 Speaker 1: a year. Doing those numbers, you see that one hundred 65 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: and forty six of seven oh three twenty one percent 66 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: of Major League Baseball hitters have been good in any 67 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: meaningful way over the last couple of years. You know 68 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 1: that they can hit the fastball, they can think with 69 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: like a full awareness, they have that work ethic over years. 70 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 1: So what if I told you that of those twenty 71 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 1: one percent of like good hitters over the last couple 72 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:38,119 Speaker 1: of years, Miami was set to field seven of them, 73 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: and that doesn't include Jazz Chism Junior or Jesu Sanchez. 74 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 1: And it's totally fair to recognize that I'm looking at 75 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: both twenty twenty and twenty twenty one numbers to talk 76 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: about twenty twenty two hitters. Certainly leaves out some of 77 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: those developing players that we might be talking about as 78 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:06,239 Speaker 1: good hitters in November, and maybe some of those past 79 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 1: performers might drop off, But everyone in that one hundred 80 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: and forty six has proven themselves over time. Their talents 81 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: are not flukes. If they are, they were certainly more 82 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 1: than just good for a year. You're talking about a 83 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: player that was at least great for a moment and 84 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: comparing those individuals to those teams, it's that meaningfully productive 85 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: batter that's the key to winning games. And if you're 86 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 1: looking at the past and present, the Marlins have a 87 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: realistic shot of fielding nine impact bats in twenty twenty two, 88 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: putting them well on track with your Dodgers, Braves and Astros. 89 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: You're really like who have been like traditionally good teams recently. 90 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: Your rays are also in there too, so it's like 91 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: kind of just like a whole group of who's who, 92 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: and obviously, like you do have to prevent the run 93 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: as well, But it's pretty undeniable at this point that 94 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: this team has been built to hit, and I think 95 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 1: that might be its own big fish, worthy of a 96 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: fold small pod, even without actually getting in the regular season. Yet, certainly, 97 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: we'll see how it goes. The leaderboard only says so much. 98 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: Baseball happens on the field. So today one of five pm, 99 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: Marlins will be facing the Houston Astros in West Palm Beach. 100 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: As we are now one week out of opening day 101 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: for the POD I have been Andrew Werdaal. I'll be 102 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: with you next Wednesday. We'll have some pots between now 103 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: and then, so definitely keep a lookout. We'll certainly be 104 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: back to your ears before then, and keep your eyes 105 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 1: on fish Stripes to see the latest should the team 106 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:34,559 Speaker 1: still add something more to the roster. Very coy about it, 107 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:41,079 Speaker 1: certainly I know nothing about it, but anyhow, talk to 108 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: you next week.