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Speaker 2: We got the first confirmation of who will be close
Speaker 2: to the forty seventh president last night when Trump announced
Speaker 2: in a statement that Susie Wiles will be his chief
Speaker 2: of staff, the first ever female White House chief of
Speaker 2: staff in American history. She, of course, one of the
Speaker 2: architects of his successful campaign this cycle. And we just
Speaker 2: got some more news from the Financial Times reporting that
Speaker 2: Robert Leitheiser, who of course was the US Trade Representative
Speaker 2: in the first Trump administration, has been asked back to
Speaker 2: take that job again as he builds out his cabinet.
Speaker 2: The Financial Times also reporting that Robert O'Brien, who served
Speaker 2: as the National Security Advisor during the first Trump admin
Speaker 2: will not be returning, but again, according to the ft
Speaker 2: Lightheiser will.
Speaker 3: Be yeah reprising his earlier role, having also expressed interest
Speaker 3: in serving as Treasury Secretary. There are a lot of
Speaker 3: names around that job We talked to one of them
Speaker 3: yesterday in Senator Haggerty, the Republican from Tennessee, didn't have
Speaker 3: much to say on that front. But one of the
Speaker 3: names being considered here on a list that we're going
Speaker 3: to talk about here with Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor,
Speaker 3: is joining us off the top here from Washington, d C.
Speaker 3: With her eyes on the transition. Laura, it's great to
Speaker 3: see you. We just checked one name off the list here, Lightheiser,
Speaker 3: second round.
Speaker 4: What do you think?
Speaker 5: So this really suggests that the aggressive trade policy that
Speaker 5: Trump had in his first term, he's ready to do that.
Speaker 6: Plus some we already know.
Speaker 5: That he wants to do across the board tariffs of
Speaker 5: ten percent, perhaps up to sixty percent from imports from China.
Speaker 5: So the fact that this is one of the earliest
Speaker 5: names coming out right after White House Chief of Staff
Speaker 5: indicates that this is a top priority for Trump. We
Speaker 5: know that, you know, day one, day two, day three,
Speaker 5: he wants to start on this tariff policy. This is
Speaker 5: something he doesn't need Congress, he doesn't need the agencies.
Speaker 5: He could do by executive action, and so we should
Speaker 5: anticipate to see that, you know, come January twenty something.
Speaker 2: Well, so this would be a return act, obviously, Laura,
Speaker 2: do we have an understanding of who else from the
Speaker 2: first Trump admin might be returning for the second go around,
Speaker 2: knowing that a lot of people who were close to
Speaker 2: Donald Trump from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty are no longer.
Speaker 2: So yeah, and there's a lot of folks who Trump
Speaker 2: has said, you know, if he had to do it again,
Speaker 2: and now he you know, is doing it again, he
Speaker 2: would not have hired.
Speaker 6: He's suggested that was one of the mistakes. You know,
Speaker 6: folks like Rex Tillerson. There are other people that we
Speaker 6: may see, names like Mike Pompeo are back in the mix.
Speaker 6: You know, of course he was Secretary of State and CIA.
Speaker 5: Other people on the national security front, people like Rick
Speaker 5: Grinnell may be back in the fold. You know, this
Speaker 5: is all being worked out and down at mar Alago.
Speaker 5: Trump is taking a bunch of meetings with a bunch
Speaker 5: of folks are there at mar Alago, hanging out in
Speaker 5: Palm Beach waiting to see if they can get a
Speaker 5: little bit of FaceTime with the President. Wiles and you know,
Speaker 5: potentially Elon Musk, who's also reportedly down there well, that's
Speaker 5: got to.
Speaker 4: Be quite a party.
Speaker 3: You mentioned the form Secretary of State, suggesting he might
Speaker 3: be Secretary of Defense this time around, Secretary Pompeo and
Speaker 3: Senator Marco Rubio's name continues to emerge for a potential
Speaker 3: state role. Does that sound realistic to you? Knowing that
Speaker 3: would create another seat to fill?
Speaker 5: Yes, in the Senate, it's much easier. You hear there's
Speaker 5: a Republican governor, Rondo Santis. Of course he could appoint
Speaker 5: someone to fill Marco Rubio's seat. Someone else who we
Speaker 5: may see is Doug Bergham, governor North Cota governor, who
Speaker 5: was also a vice presidential contender like Rubio. Where it
Speaker 5: gets tricky is with these House appointments. There's a bunch
Speaker 5: of House members, folks like Brian jack Elis Staphonic Mike Walls,
Speaker 5: who are interested in jobs. Because we don't know yet
Speaker 5: know the size of the majority Republican majority, or if
Speaker 5: there will be a Republican majority at all, there's a
Speaker 5: lot of concern that if they pull people from the
Speaker 5: House to some of these cabinet level jobs, that it
Speaker 5: means that Republicans either won't have a majority or at
Speaker 5: least not a big enough one to get through the
Speaker 5: policy agenda. So folks who are in the House are
Speaker 5: being told that their candidacy is a little bit on
Speaker 5: ice right now.
Speaker 6: While that all being sorted in.
Speaker 2: The House, we're also getting some more reporting from the
Speaker 2: Financial Times about the potential Commerce secretary. Apparently Trump is
Speaker 2: likely to offer that job to Linda McMahon, who of
Speaker 2: course ran the Small Business Administration during his first admin.
Speaker 2: So that would be another familiar face according to the FT.
Speaker 2: As we consider this transition process, knowing we have heard
Speaker 2: from both the loser in this presidential race, Vice President
Speaker 2: Kamala Harrison, President Biden himself yesterday pledging a peaceful, smooth
Speaker 2: transition of power, do.
Speaker 6: We have a sense of the extent to which the.
Speaker 2: Trump transition team really wants to be working with the
Speaker 2: incumbent administration, knowing their skepticism around the General Services Administration,
Speaker 2: the US intelligence agencies. Could this still be tricky?
Speaker 5: Yes, this could be very tricky, and so the public posture,
Speaker 5: you know, the statements from Trump and his team have
Speaker 5: been very positive and warm to the president. They've accepted
Speaker 5: Biden's offer to come to the White House and meet,
Speaker 5: but behind the scenes there is concern about, you know,
Speaker 5: the sort of the FBI running some of the background checks.
Speaker 5: The team hasn't yet you know, signed on to use
Speaker 5: federal buildings for the transition. This is all being run
Speaker 5: out of mar A Lago. They've not yet taken federal
Speaker 5: government money. So this is there's still a very much
Speaker 5: a rift between where the Trump team is and you know,
Speaker 5: sort of integrating back into the federal government.
Speaker 4: It's really fascinating. Should we expect that to change?
Speaker 3: Or is that the way this goes simply move everybody
Speaker 3: into the administration once Joe Biden leaves. And to that end,
Speaker 3: is there going to be the traditional welcoming of the
Speaker 3: family in the on the South Portico They're going to
Speaker 3: have breakfast together before the inaugural or does that just
Speaker 3: sound like comedy right now?
Speaker 6: We'll see how that goes.
Speaker 5: Biden, at least publicly has sort of indicated that he
Speaker 5: wants to have this peaceful transition of power, do you know,
Speaker 5: do everything, sort of buy the book and that would
Speaker 5: be sort of the traditional way of doing it. It's
Speaker 5: also noteworthy to note that, you know a lot of
Speaker 5: the people that that Trump wants to.
Speaker 6: Bring in may not be able to be confirmed. So
Speaker 6: this is sort of one of the things that's being discussed.
Speaker 5: If you know, if they can't be confirmed by the
Speaker 5: Senate or maybe can't pass a background check, you know,
Speaker 5: what are sort of the ways that that Trump could
Speaker 5: bring these people into special advisor roles in the White
Speaker 5: House that don't involve sort of the normal govern apparatus.
Speaker 2: Well, that confirmation will get easier, presumably with every additional
Speaker 2: Republican Senate seat in the majority. Laura, Obviously, fifty three
Speaker 2: is where we stand right now. It's unclear whether or
Speaker 2: not that's going to be expanded via Arizona or Nevada.
Speaker 2: But how much does that matter that this isn't a
Speaker 2: fifty one forty nine Senate we're looking at.
Speaker 5: It gives Republicans in the Senate a lot more room
Speaker 5: for error. They can lose some of these more moderate
Speaker 5: members Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, they don't have to support
Speaker 5: some of the more controversial or far right nominees and
Speaker 5: they can still pass through. So this gives Trump and
Speaker 5: his team a lot more leeway of who they can
Speaker 5: bring forward. You know, they just need a simple majority,
Speaker 5: and you know, when you look at the roster of
Speaker 5: Republican senators, the vast majority are.
Speaker 6: Very closely aligned with Trump.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: As I alluded to you, right now, the Senate as
Speaker 2: it stands is fifty three forty five fifty three, of course,
Speaker 2: the size of the Republican majority at this time. The House,
Speaker 2: though Joe, remains too close to call. Right now, Republicans
Speaker 2: have won two hundred and eleven seats, Democrats one ninety nine.
Speaker 2: There are y five left to be called, and of
Speaker 2: course it takes two hundred and eighteen to have a majority.
Speaker 4: This still could go either way.
Speaker 3: I think favored Republican right now, but as we warned
Speaker 3: everyone on Tuesday, California is going to end up deciding
Speaker 3: this in Kaylee, we just have no idea when that's
Speaker 3: going to be done.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could take some time still, but we want
Speaker 2: to get a check in on sentiment within the Democratic
Speaker 2: caucus in the House. And turn to Florida Congressoman and
Speaker 2: former DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is joining us
Speaker 2: now here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressoman, thank you
Speaker 2: so much for your time. Could you just share with
Speaker 2: us what you're hearing from your leadership in the House
Speaker 2: the degree of confidence or not that is being projected.
Speaker 7: Helly and Joe, thank you for having me.
Speaker 8: And you know, what we're focused on right now with
Speaker 8: twenty five seats still outstanding in terms of the election result,
Speaker 8: is making sure that every vote is counted. And you know,
Speaker 8: we've seen in the past efforts to you know, try
Speaker 8: to cast doubt on the counting process in the West,
Speaker 8: on the West Coast in particular, there are a lot
Speaker 8: of mail ballots. Washington State, Arizona, Oregon actually conduct all
Speaker 8: or nearly all of their elections by mail, and California
Speaker 8: has postmarked by election day. So we've got a long
Speaker 8: three day weekend with Veterans Day on Monday, so we
Speaker 8: have a little bit of time before we're going to
Speaker 8: know how this plays out. And we have to just
Speaker 8: make sure that ballots are cured because people have an
Speaker 8: opportunity when there's been a mistake that's been made to
Speaker 8: fix their ballot so that their intention is clear.
Speaker 7: And so in America, we've got.
Speaker 8: To make sure that we've followed the law and make
Speaker 8: sure that every valid boat has an opportunity to be counted.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: I don't want to walk you into too much speculation here,
Speaker 3: but I do wonder if Democrats take control of the House,
Speaker 3: and that is going to be the scenario where we
Speaker 3: have a split Congress and a Donald Trump administration on
Speaker 3: the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, what would be the
Speaker 3: role of what I presume would be a very thin majority,
Speaker 3: not unlike Republicans have right now. Would it be one
Speaker 3: of insurgency, would it be the party of no What
Speaker 3: would Democrats consider their role in government to be?
Speaker 8: Well, if we do have an opportunity to serve in
Speaker 8: the majority, as you said, it would be with a
Speaker 8: slim majority, and that's the situation that the Republicans have now. Regardless,
Speaker 8: it would be a slim majority either way.
Speaker 7: We've had a lot.
Speaker 8: Of success as Democrats in the minority with the Republicans
Speaker 8: only having a five and then a four seat majority
Speaker 8: and being able to make sure that we were the
Speaker 8: party of normalcy.
Speaker 7: I mean they couldn't because they can't.
Speaker 8: Haven't been able to get out of their own way
Speaker 8: and even pass legislation with a majority. They've needed Democrats
Speaker 8: to be able to not shut the government down. They've
Speaker 8: needed Democrats to be able to not crash the economy
Speaker 8: into a cliff by lifting and lift the debt ceiling.
Speaker 8: We've had so many things that have happened as a
Speaker 8: result of Democrats being Team normal because Republicans were Team extreme.
Speaker 8: That will particularly be important with Donald Trump and the
Speaker 8: White House. If we have the majority, we're going to
Speaker 8: need to make sure that we are the backstop to
Speaker 8: stop mass deportations, to stop him from bringing to a
Speaker 8: screeching halt all of the progress been able to make.
Speaker 2: Well on the subject of Donald Trump. Congresswoman, we are
Speaker 2: getting some breaking news just crossing the wire here at
Speaker 2: the US Special Council. Jacksmith has officially asked the courts
Speaker 2: to pause the prosecution against Donald Trump. He will announce
Speaker 2: plans for Trump's case by December second. Keeping in mind
Speaker 2: here there were two federal cases against Donald Trump, two indictments,
Speaker 2: one in Washington, DC related to results of the twenty
Speaker 2: twenty election and the attempt to subvert them, another in
Speaker 2: your state of Florida, the Classified Documents case, Congresswoman, Largely,
Speaker 2: this move from Jacksmith was expected. The DOJ has a
Speaker 2: policy that says president of the United States shouldn't be prosecuted,
Speaker 2: but I do wonder your reaction to this news. Keeping
Speaker 2: in mind already he has become a convicted felon in
Speaker 2: a state case, but federal is different.
Speaker 7: That's right.
Speaker 8: The thirty four account felonies that he's been convicted of
Speaker 8: at the state case, and there's still a sentencing that
Speaker 8: awaits him.
Speaker 7: The federal cases, let's remember.
Speaker 8: Include that Donald Trump incited an into insurrection on January sixth,
Speaker 8: and that he egregiously violated the federal law and took
Speaker 8: home and refused to turn over as the law requires,
Speaker 8: vital intelligence documents that he hoarded and that he showed off.
Speaker 7: So it is essential to our.
Speaker 8: National security that these cases be able to play out.
Speaker 8: But we do have Supreme Court decisions that established immunity,
Speaker 8: so those limitations exist, and it's going to have to
Speaker 8: be sorted out on the federal cases that remain. The
Speaker 8: state case is I think something that we're going to
Speaker 8: have to keep an eye out on. Certainly, Donald Trump
Speaker 8: had his day in court, was convicted on all thirty
Speaker 8: four counts by a jury of his peers, and a
Speaker 8: sentence should hold him accountable.
Speaker 3: Congresswoman, should President Biden pardon Donald Trump before he leaves
Speaker 3: the White House.
Speaker 8: I'm not going to be here and tell President Biden
Speaker 8: what he should do. I personally don't think there should
Speaker 8: be pardons coming in these cases. These are very very
Speaker 8: serious crimes that he's committed. The cases should play out
Speaker 8: under the rules that the Supreme Board has structured, and
Speaker 8: so no, I don't think that that President Biden should
Speaker 8: be pardoning him. President Biden, I know we'll be focused
Speaker 8: on trying to make sure we can continue to finish
Speaker 8: our agenda strong continue to bring down the cost of
Speaker 8: prescription drugs through the continued negotiation. After the Inflation Reduction
Speaker 8: Act successfully brought down the cost of so many prescription drugs,
Speaker 8: that has to continue.
Speaker 7: We have to continue to make sure we.
Speaker 8: Bring the Chips Act implementation forward because as Speaker Johnson
Speaker 8: clearly indicated that they were going to look at trying
Speaker 8: to repeal that that would be outrageous. We need to
Speaker 8: make sure that we manufacture computer chips in the United States,
Speaker 8: continue to create those homegrown jobs.
Speaker 7: So we have a lot to do while the lame
Speaker 7: Duck Session is in.
Speaker 2: Session well and in the remainder of Biden's presidency. Congressman,
Speaker 2: I don't have to tell you that there is within
Speaker 2: your party. A lot of blame being cast on Biden
Speaker 2: for not stepping away from his reelection campaign as sooner you,
Speaker 2: of course, used to chair the DNC. We can, I
Speaker 2: guess Friday morning quarterback this all we want to. I
Speaker 2: wonder though, if you can diagnose what went wrong in
Speaker 2: this cycle and what the Democrats need to do differently
Speaker 2: in the midterms in twenty twenty six and then looking
Speaker 2: forward to twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 8: I've been through a lot of aftermath analyzes in the
Speaker 8: post election losses, and one thing that we need to
Speaker 8: not do is fingerpoint. The blame game is inappropriate. Look,
Speaker 8: we have to face some hard realities here. We had
Speaker 8: tremendous accomplishments under President Biden.
Speaker 7: We have the strongest.
Speaker 8: Economy in the globe post but we failed to connect,
Speaker 8: obviously with a lot of key constituencies that were previously
Speaker 8: supportive of Democrats, and we've got some work to do that.
Speaker 8: I know we're going to come together as a family
Speaker 8: and focus on under Hockem Jeffreys remarkable leadership, whether he
Speaker 8: is the Minority leader or the Speaker of the House
Speaker 8: of Representatives, and I still think that's possible. We need
Speaker 8: to come together with our other Democratic leaders on the
Speaker 8: leadership team that I'm proud to be a member of
Speaker 8: and do an analysis. And we have to make sure
Speaker 8: that we focus on the priorities of the American people.
Speaker 8: That the diffuse communications system that exists today made it
Speaker 8: uneable for us to penetrate.
Speaker 7: We have to make sure people know we understand the
Speaker 7: challenges that they face.
Speaker 8: When I was on the campaign trail, Kayley, you know,
Speaker 8: I still hear from people about the price of groceries.
Speaker 8: We cannot let grocery companies not pass on savings that
Speaker 8: they are clearly feeling in the retail at the retail level,
Speaker 8: and we have to make sure that we're listening to
Speaker 8: people and responding about the impact of the remaining dreads
Speaker 8: of inflation.
Speaker 7: That still exists.
Speaker 3: Congressim and Kayley recalls your time when you chaired the DNC,
Speaker 3: and we all remember shortly after twenty twelve, the autopsy
Speaker 3: that the Republican National Committee put forth.
Speaker 4: It was one hundred page report.
Speaker 3: Remembered Ryan's previous said, we're going to put our cards
Speaker 3: face up on the table and better appeal to Latino
Speaker 3: American voters. That was part of the outcome of this
Speaker 3: election that in some cases Latino's broke for Trump, and
Speaker 3: I wonder your thoughts on why we only have a
Speaker 3: couple of minutes. I don't want to set you up
Speaker 3: here for too much of a dissertation, but what would
Speaker 3: your autopsy say today?
Speaker 8: I represent a very large Hispanic constituency in my congressional
Speaker 8: district and that outreach is absolutely critical.
Speaker 7: I wouldn't say that the Republicans under Trump have done
Speaker 7: such a good job.
Speaker 8: Allowing someone to call the the island of Puerto Rico
Speaker 8: a floating island of garbage right before election day probably
Speaker 8: wasn't the best way to show that they support Hispanics.
Speaker 8: But we have to recognize Hispanics are a multi ethnic population.
Speaker 8: They can't be treated as one size fits all and
Speaker 8: you can only talk to them near an election, and
Speaker 8: that's something that we have to get to work on.
Speaker 8: And we have to make sure that we're talking to
Speaker 8: them about their priorities the economy, education, healthcare. That's top
Speaker 8: of the list. And then we also obviously have to
Speaker 8: deal with immigration challenges and some of the other things
Speaker 8: that are more uniquely specific to the Hispanic community as well.
Speaker 4: We're going to do that and more Congress.
Speaker 3: Congress will be great to have you back. W Wasser
Speaker 3: Minchell of Florida. Appreciate the conversation and have a great weekend, Kayley.
Speaker 3: With breaking news today. This is going to be one
Speaker 3: of these days with races breaking and news on the transition,
Speaker 3: with more headlines crossing the terminal.
Speaker 2: Yeah again, the Special Counsel Jack Smith asking the court
Speaker 2: to pause the prosecution against Donald Trump. Jacksmith, of course
Speaker 2: overseeing the two federal cases against Donald Trump. The state
Speaker 2: cases are another matter. As we discussed with the congresswoman.
Speaker 2: He's already a convicted felon based off of the state
Speaker 2: case in New York around falsifying business records, but his
Speaker 2: team is also pushing for the other state case, the
Speaker 2: racketeering case in Georgia, also related of course to the
Speaker 2: results of the twenty twenty election, to be tossed as well.
Speaker 2: So we'll continue to keep track of these developments. Get
Speaker 2: reaction from our signature political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie
Speaker 2: Shanzeno right here on Balance of Power Live from New
Speaker 2: York on Bloomberg TV and read.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 2: The election, of course, is over, but we are still
Speaker 2: dealing with breaking news as it comes in pertaining to
Speaker 2: the outstanding Senate and House races, but also pertaining to
Speaker 2: the ongoing legal cases at least for now against the
Speaker 2: President elect Donald Trump. But news breaking just moments ago
Speaker 2: Joe that the special counsel Jack Smith has asked the
Speaker 2: federal judge overseeing specifically the election interference case against Donald
Speaker 2: Trump to cancel all upcoming court deadlines in a step toward.
Speaker 7: Dropping the case.
Speaker 3: I guess we'll be making a filing on December two.
Speaker 3: Kind of an anti climactic finish. It appears to be
Speaker 3: for this massive effort that Jack Smith put together in
Speaker 3: these two cases. And we're joined right now on this
Speaker 3: breaking news by Bloomberg Legal reporter Eric Larson, who's been
Speaker 3: covering this since the very beginning.
Speaker 4: Eric, this is how it ends.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, we will see what the judge says,
Speaker 9: but the writing was on the wall as soon as
Speaker 9: Trump won the election, and just a few days ago,
Speaker 9: of course, we learned that the Justice Department was already
Speaker 9: looking into ways to make these two cases go away.
Speaker 9: And of course it is a result of this Justice Department,
Speaker 9: long standing Justice Department policy that you can't prosecute a
Speaker 9: sitting president. Of course Trump is not president yet, but
Speaker 9: they want to get these cases, I think, out of
Speaker 9: the way before his inauguration, and this is the first
Speaker 9: step in doing this.
Speaker 2: Well, of course, it's too late for one case against
Speaker 2: Donald Trump already eric in the falsifying business records case
Speaker 2: here in New York, he already was convicted on all
Speaker 2: thirty four felon accounts, making him a convicted fella. He's
Speaker 2: supposed to be convicted, or rather sentenced in that case
Speaker 2: on November twenty six, just a few weeks from now.
Speaker 2: Is that still going to happen.
Speaker 9: Well, as of right now that that date is still
Speaker 9: on the books, but you can expect that Trump's lawyers
Speaker 9: are going to make a strong push to prevent this
Speaker 9: sentencing from going forward. Of course, he faces as long
Speaker 9: as four years behind bars for these crimes. And even
Speaker 9: though most legal experts have said that he would probably
Speaker 9: get far less than that, or even just probation. I
Speaker 9: don't think going to want a judge to be able
Speaker 9: to issue any kind of sentence at all before the
Speaker 9: president elect takes office. So just a mere threat that
Speaker 9: it could be a sentence of incarceration that would hang
Speaker 9: over him as he takes office would be the argument
Speaker 9: that they would make about interfere with a president's constitutional
Speaker 9: rights and interfere with his ability to do the important
Speaker 9: work of office.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Eric Larson, thank you so much for
Speaker 2: jumping on the phone with us as we handle this
Speaker 2: breaking news. Appreciate your time. And of course there's another
Speaker 2: case to consider here as well, Joe another state case,
Speaker 2: the one brought against him and many other defendants in Georgia,
Speaker 2: also related to efforts to overturn the twenty twenty election.
Speaker 2: That's the rocketeering case that the DA Fulton County Finnie
Speaker 2: Willis has brought. It's unclear how that moves forward.
Speaker 6: The Trump team would like it not.
Speaker 4: To, that's for sure.
Speaker 3: And we have to remember that even if there was
Speaker 3: a Biden pardon, that doesn't apply to state level cases.
Speaker 3: So it's an interesting component here to this whole story.
Speaker 3: Remarkable though, just within days of this election turnout. We're
Speaker 3: having this conversation right now. I want to bring in
Speaker 3: our signature panel. Rick Davis, Stone Court, Capital partner, Republican
Speaker 3: strategist and Genie Shanzano, political science professor at Iona University,
Speaker 3: Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of
Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress?
Speaker 4: Is this how you saw it ending?
Speaker 10: Yeah, this is how it should end. I mean, the
Speaker 10: Justice Department should move forward with dropping these charges. Their
Speaker 10: long standing prohibition against prosecuting a president should apply to
Speaker 10: a president elect. It is unhealthy for the democracy and
Speaker 10: I hope that Alvin Bragg, the DA in Manhattan, is
Speaker 10: able or the just judges in New York are able
Speaker 10: to put that to rest as well, because we do
Speaker 10: have to move forward and this cannot continue. You cannot
Speaker 10: do democracy in the courts. It has to be decided
Speaker 10: at the ballot box. He won and we have to
Speaker 10: get behind him and move forward.
Speaker 2: Rick could another way of viewing this is the Justice
Speaker 2: Department abiding by what the will of seventy four million
Speaker 2: Americans is.
Speaker 11: Yeah, Well, you don't want to just trust seventy four
Speaker 11: million Americans to decide what is legal and what is
Speaker 11: not legal, right, No one should be above the law,
Speaker 11: and sitting presidents don't have immunity against their personal acts, right,
Speaker 11: So just to put it in that context, but it
Speaker 11: is not healthy for democracy to be chasing after former
Speaker 11: presidents or current presidents. You know, four things done not
Speaker 11: related to their official acts of the presidency. So I
Speaker 11: think we should have all learned our lesson on this.
Speaker 11: You know, the indictments of Donald Trump buoyed his campaign
Speaker 11: in the primary when other people were running against him,
Speaker 11: and in assuming those things were all done for the
Speaker 11: right reason, it was because of the normal course of
Speaker 11: the legal system. We really did bend the political dynamic
Speaker 11: here by having all this legal activity around Donald Trump
Speaker 11: during a presidential year.
Speaker 12: I s W.
Speaker 3: Wasserman Schultz'll ask you, should Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump?
Speaker 10: No, you know, I don't think so. I would hope that.
Speaker 4: That'd be good for the sake of the democracy.
Speaker 10: You know, I don't think he needs to pardon him.
Speaker 10: I think the Justice Department does what Jack Smith is
Speaker 10: asking them to do, and in these state cases, the
Speaker 10: New York and Georgia, which are very different cases, they
Speaker 10: move forward as well and ensure that there is no
Speaker 10: issue involving prison or anything else, and let's put this
Speaker 10: behind us. I don't think we need to see Joe
Speaker 10: Biden doing a pardon. And I do think it's a
Speaker 10: reminder that what Mitch McConnell said during the impeachment and
Speaker 10: then the trial of that this should be handled in
Speaker 10: the courts was dead wrong. These are political decisions, and
Speaker 10: he should have stepped up if he thought Donald Trump
Speaker 10: was guilty, which he said he did, and he should
Speaker 10: have brought Republicans along to remove him from office at
Speaker 10: that point, not throw this to the judiciary.
Speaker 2: Well, but when we consider the future of the judiciary,
Speaker 2: obviously donald Trump, we don't know who it is yet
Speaker 2: we'll be able to point his own attorney general will
Speaker 2: have a new looking Department of Justice, and we should
Speaker 2: point out consistently during his campaign Whrick he talked about
Speaker 2: weaponizing that against his political opponents and the way he
Speaker 2: felt it had been weaponized against him in all of
Speaker 2: these cases, this retribution tour. Should we still expect that
Speaker 2: to happen or if they go away, does this all
Speaker 2: move into the quiet?
Speaker 11: Oh well, we'll never know, right, I mean, I don't
Speaker 11: think you can predict an outcome on anything in a
Speaker 11: prospective administration, whether it's Donald Trump's or anybody else's. That
Speaker 11: being said, I thought Mitt Romney had to write concept
Speaker 11: eight months ago, you know, before this campaign really heated up,
Speaker 11: and said that the President Biden should have pardoned him
Speaker 11: at the time these charges were brought. In other words,
Speaker 11: you know, why wait till all of this unfolds and
Speaker 11: all this negativity takes hold in our society when it
Speaker 11: would have been appropriate for one president to pardon another
Speaker 11: this has happened before. The last thing we should be
Speaker 11: doing is prosecuting for if there's any shade of political
Speaker 11: motivation to it, are leaders. And so if you want
Speaker 11: to healthy democracy, you got to take a step back
Speaker 11: from this kind of lawfair.
Speaker 3: Well, as Donald Trump watches all of this unfold, he's
Speaker 3: not waiting around to find out. He's going ahead with
Speaker 3: the transition and reaching out to world leaders.
Speaker 4: There was a phone.
Speaker 3: Call, as we already talked about, with President Zelenski of Ukraine,
Speaker 3: and there's reporting today, Genie that Elon Musk was also
Speaker 3: on that call. Of course, the Starlink service has I
Speaker 3: guess something to do with the conversation here about the
Speaker 3: way forward in Ukraine. But what does that mean for
Speaker 3: what this administration is going to look like in the
Speaker 3: role that Musk will play, because it seems like a
Speaker 3: pretty big one.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean out of Tuesday night, in addition to
Speaker 10: Donald Trump, the big winner there was Elon Musk, and
Speaker 10: that is very clear. He was at this speech at
Speaker 10: mar A Lago on Tuesday. Wednesday morning, he is on
Speaker 10: the phone with his Lelensky and we assume other world leaders.
Speaker 10: He has said he will take some kind of role,
Speaker 10: not necessarily a cabinet position, certainly in the administration. So
Speaker 10: he has a big role to play. And I think
Speaker 10: it's going to be the job of the investigative press
Speaker 10: to be the watchdog. We hope that they are, and
Speaker 10: to follow what is happening, because this is somebody whose
Speaker 10: business in life benefits enormously from billions of taxpayer dollars.
Speaker 2: So whether or not Elon Musk is in the cabinet
Speaker 2: remains unclear, but we are getting more reporting on what
Speaker 2: that cabinet could look like from the Financial Times this hour. Rick,
Speaker 2: you guessed this last night when we were on balance
Speaker 2: of Power. Apparently he's looking at Linda McMahon, the former
Speaker 2: a small Business Administrator for Commerce Secretary Robert O'Brien, who
Speaker 2: was NSA or National Security Advisor during the Trump aadmin,
Speaker 2: will not be coming back, but coming back for a
Speaker 2: second round. US Trade Representative Robert.
Speaker 11: Robert Leitheiser the probably the sharpest protectionist in the Republican Party,
Speaker 11: and he, you know, as far as Donald Trump was concerned,
Speaker 11: he did it exactly the right thing in his first term,
Speaker 11: organizing the terraf regime against China and others. So we
Speaker 11: can expect a lot of that to happen again. Look,
Speaker 11: I think one of the things we're going to be
Speaker 11: surprised about is that there aren't going to be that
Speaker 11: many big surprises, you know, around Donald Trump's selection of
Speaker 11: people for his cabinet or his sub cabinet. You know,
Speaker 11: it's a trust relationship there, and these are all talented people.
Speaker 11: I mean, Lenna McMahon, you know, really did a fabulous
Speaker 11: job at the Small Business Administration, especially as COVID started
Speaker 11: to take a hold. So I think we can anticipate
Speaker 11: a professional cabinet, but one that is intensely loyal and
Speaker 11: so you know, and look, I mean I think the
Speaker 11: jury's out right now. We don't know what role Elon
Speaker 11: Musk is going to take. But Elon Musk has has
Speaker 11: reformed the space program, satellite program, infrastructure development. I mean,
Speaker 11: we could do worse than to have someone like him
Speaker 11: sitting now the president when he's making decisions. That being said,
Speaker 11: we'll see where he winds up if there is an
Speaker 11: official position for him.
Speaker 3: It's a former lawyer for the US steel industry, which
Speaker 3: kind of gives us an interesting backdrop for the Nipon
Speaker 3: proposed acquisition of US Steel, which obviously Donald Trump doesn't
Speaker 3: want to see happen. But what is disappointment He hasn't
Speaker 3: accepted it yet. Suggest about Trump two point.
Speaker 10: Zero, You know, I think Trump two point zero in
Speaker 10: this way, I think is not going to be like
Speaker 10: you know, unlike Trump one point zero. He didn't have
Speaker 10: much use for the cabinet beyond some critical positions. He
Speaker 10: left a lot of that to his folks, and his
Speaker 10: one number one demand was loyalty and assisting him and
Speaker 10: fulfilling his promises. So I think that's what we are
Speaker 10: seeing here, and I think you know what we're hearing
Speaker 10: also is that those people who cannot make it through
Speaker 10: Senate confirmation, and there are some, are going to be
Speaker 10: put into the White House as officials. So I think
Speaker 10: we're going to see a movement of officials who can
Speaker 10: get through confirmation going that route to the cabinet all
Speaker 10: of the other ones, and we know their names are
Speaker 10: going to be put in the White House regardless. And
Speaker 10: I do think on Elon Musk, we have a system
Speaker 10: of checks and balances. We do not anoint somebody to
Speaker 10: fix infrastructure and everything else without those checks. So he
Speaker 10: is brilliant and he does a lot, but he also
Speaker 10: needs to be checked.
Speaker 4: We know their names. Steve Bannon, who are you talking about?
Speaker 10: Oh, well, we know their names, right, Steve Bannon. You
Speaker 10: can think about I mean, we can think of a
Speaker 10: whole host of people. We know some of those people.
Speaker 10: You know, when you think just about Steven Miller on
Speaker 10: the issue of you know, trying to, for instance, work
Speaker 10: on his number one promise, which is deportation, that is
Speaker 10: Stephen Miller's game. He won't make it through a Senate confirmation,
Speaker 10: but he'll do it once again from the White House.
Speaker 2: Well, it'll get easier with every additional senator in the
Speaker 2: Republican majority. Right right, there's still two races outstanding.
Speaker 4: Still two races outstanding.
Speaker 11: I think we're at fifty three, so yeah, I mean,
Speaker 11: I don't think additional races will matter other than you know,
Speaker 11: comfort going forward when you need to get a closure
Speaker 11: vote for sixty. So the real question is for fiscal issues,
Speaker 11: whether or not Republican majority will hold in the House.
Speaker 11: I think we're going to be waiting around till California
Speaker 11: counts all their ballots, so that could be weeks before
Speaker 11: we actually know the content of Congress.
Speaker 4: Ho about Arizona, You've got people on the ground there.
Speaker 4: When are we going to get a call for the
Speaker 4: Senate race? I think very soon.
Speaker 11: They are fifty forty five thousand votes still uncounted. Most
Speaker 11: of those are in Maricopa County, and the way Maricopa
Speaker 11: County releases things, it's in the order of which they
Speaker 11: came in. So last night, for instance, we got a
Speaker 11: release from people who dropped off ballots on election day.
Speaker 11: They didn't vote on election day by walking in and
Speaker 11: casting a vote. They voted by just turning in their
Speaker 11: ballot like they mailed it that same day. So those
Speaker 11: were counted, and you know, Republicans picked up a little bit,
Speaker 11: So we'll see.
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll find out while we're in the late edition,
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 2: In Arizona, which hasn't been called at the presidential level,
Speaker 2: I would add though Donald Trump obviously is leading it
Speaker 2: at this stage in the count and it ultimately won't
Speaker 2: matter for electoral college purposes. But in the Senate race,
Speaker 2: it's actually a bit tighter than many people and dissipated
Speaker 2: Reuben Diego, the Democratic candidate, only up right now by
Speaker 2: one and a half percentage points on the Republican candidate
Speaker 2: Kerrie Lake with seventy seven percent of the vot's counted.
Speaker 3: Very interesting to see what the next job from Maricopa
Speaker 3: County brings and whether this race is called over the weekend.
Speaker 3: We knew Arizona would take a long time, but this
Speaker 3: is one.
Speaker 13: Of the last two.
Speaker 2: So let's go to an expert on Arizona politics now
Speaker 2: joining us as Samara clar She's professor of Political Science
Speaker 2: at the University of Arizona. She's also co author of
Speaker 2: the book Partisan Hostility and America Democracy, Explaining political divisions. Samaraw,
Speaker 2: thanks for coming back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Last
Speaker 2: we spoke was in the wee hours in the aftermath
Speaker 2: of the election on Wednesday morning. When we look at
Speaker 2: this Senate race, this tight margin between Diego and Lake,
Speaker 2: knowing Diego was pretty consistently with a healthy lead on
Speaker 2: Lake in the polls, what are you thinking here?
Speaker 6: Is there a chance Lake pulls us out?
Speaker 14: I mean, there's a chance. It hasn't been called.
Speaker 15: Geygo's maintained his league throughout the account and you know,
Speaker 15: we still I think we're now at seventy eight percent,
Speaker 15: seventy nine percent reporting he's up by a point and
Speaker 15: a half. Anything could happen. That's why it hasn't been called.
Speaker 15: They won't call it till they know for sure. I
Speaker 15: know it looks as though, you know, he's still obviously
Speaker 15: outperforming Harris, who is more significantly behind Donald Trump. That,
Speaker 15: as you mentioned, hasn't been called either, but it is
Speaker 15: sure to be called for Trump now. There we knew
Speaker 15: there was a percentage of Trump voters who were going
Speaker 15: to be voting for Gego. It looks as though that
Speaker 15: did happen. The question is how many of those Trump
Speaker 15: voters stuck with that decision and decided to vote for Gyego.
Speaker 15: How many of them may be decided to not vote
Speaker 15: in the Senate at all. But we won't know until
Speaker 15: this thing.
Speaker 14: Is all done.
Speaker 9: Well.
Speaker 3: Based on where we are in the count here, is
Speaker 3: there still a path for carry Lake to win?
Speaker 15: From last I checked it to but a point and
Speaker 15: a half and there's but twenty percent votes coming in.
Speaker 14: It's possible.
Speaker 15: If we're impossible, they would have called it already. I
Speaker 15: think that it looks unlikely. I mean, it looks as
Speaker 15: though Gayego will most likely hold on to the lead,
Speaker 15: but we don't know. I mean, Arizona is a state
Speaker 15: where candidates win by incredibly tiny margins. I mean, in
Speaker 15: our house race right now, I believe Christian Engel is
Speaker 15: ahead of Sisco Moni by just.
Speaker 14: A couple hundred votes. So this is the Arizona way.
Speaker 14: Every single vallat has to be counted before we know
Speaker 14: for sure.
Speaker 2: That's the Arizona way. What about the Carrie Lake Way? Samara?
Speaker 2: We all remember her failed gubernatorial bid in which she
Speaker 2: never actually accepted that she lost the race.
Speaker 7: How would we expect.
Speaker 2: It to go down if indeed this is ultimately called
Speaker 2: for guyego with the story Necessarily they're based off of
Speaker 2: what we've experienced in the past.
Speaker 15: Well, listen, we know that Carrie Lake did not accept
Speaker 15: that defeat in twenty twenty two against Katie Hobbes. I
Speaker 15: think things are a little different now and that Trump
Speaker 15: has won, and he probably doesn't want to be part
Speaker 15: of a real the election is rigged, a narrative that
Speaker 15: doesn't really benefit him, and I think there probably is
Speaker 15: a little lot less of an appetite for it among
Speaker 15: Republican voters in Arizona generally. I think the momentum towards
Speaker 15: this election de nihilism has certainly calmed a bit in Arizona,
Speaker 15: and Trump being the victor is kind of going to
Speaker 15: seal the deal on that. I don't think Trump wants
Speaker 15: to discuss rigged elections or fake elections. He's won, He's
Speaker 15: happy with it, and I don't think carry Blake's going
Speaker 15: to have a lot of support if she starts, you know,
Speaker 15: sharing conspiracy theories about election de nihilism.
Speaker 13: Again, there was a.
Speaker 4: Lot of reportings somewhere on.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg did quite a bit of reporting as well on
Speaker 3: the hardening of polling locations, the drone coverage, snipers on roofs,
Speaker 3: the extent to which Arizona went to create some confidence
Speaker 3: around the system here and also protect the vote from
Speaker 3: poll watchers or other bad actors. Potentially, how did Arizona
Speaker 3: do because there were no reports of trouble that I saw.
Speaker 7: That's right.
Speaker 15: I mean, Arizona and the election officials here worked really
Speaker 15: over time to try to ensure that there was absolutely
Speaker 15: no doubt that our elections were being conducted fairly, that
Speaker 15: everybody was going to feel secure. I was doing polling
Speaker 15: on Arizona where I asked voters, do you believe that
Speaker 15: elections in Arizona are safe and trustworthy? The overwhelming majority
Speaker 15: of Democrats believed they were. Republicans were split about fifty
Speaker 15: to fifty. We had about half of Republicans saying yes,
Speaker 15: I have confidence in our elections, half of Republicans saying no.
Speaker 15: Those without confidence in the elections were significantly more likely
Speaker 15: to vote for Donald Trump. As it happens, as it
Speaker 15: probably is in part due to some of the messaging
Speaker 15: he shared since twenty twenty, but ultimately we've heard of
Speaker 15: no funny business going on with our elections, and hopefully
Speaker 15: once this is all said and done, people will be
Speaker 15: able to move on well tomorrow.
Speaker 2: As we discussed with you the morning after the election,
Speaker 2: Arizona also had abortion on the ballot in this cycle,
Speaker 2: abortion rights were protected at the same time, and that
Speaker 2: it looks like Donald Trump will have the state called
Speaker 2: for him at some point. And I wonder if we
Speaker 2: can treat Arizona as a microcosm for the way all
Speaker 2: of this played out on the national level, which is
Speaker 2: that abortion is not quite the mobilizing issue that Democrats
Speaker 2: were necessarily counting on. That maybe issues like the immigration issue,
Speaker 2: obviously hyper relevant in a border state like Arizona, are
Speaker 2: much more significant.
Speaker 14: Sure well, I'd say.
Speaker 15: Probably the most significant issue for voters in Arizona was
Speaker 15: the economy. They were repeatedly saying that that was the
Speaker 15: issue most important to them Latino voters, non Latino voters,
Speaker 15: men and women.
Speaker 14: The economy was really number one for voters.
Speaker 15: I don't know if we can necessarily say that having
Speaker 15: abortion on the ballot didn't help Harris.
Speaker 14: It may have actually helped Harris we don't know.
Speaker 15: This counterfactual world where abortion wasn't on the ballot possible,
Speaker 15: she may have done worse without it.
Speaker 14: But having abortion on the.
Speaker 15: Ballot certainly did allow pro choice Republicans the option of
Speaker 15: supporting their preferred candidate, Donald Trump and supporting reproductive rights.
Speaker 14: And we do know that on the pulling that I've been.
Speaker 15: Doing, over a third of Republicans we're planning on voting
Speaker 15: in favor of this measure. So from that perspective, having
Speaker 15: it on the ballot kind of gives Trump an out.
Speaker 15: People can both vote for Republicans, can vote for Trump,
Speaker 15: and can support abortion separately.
Speaker 3: Interesting, the so called single vote, single voter when it
Speaker 3: comes to the issue of abortion to something we've talked
Speaker 3: about a lot. How about the single issue voter when
Speaker 3: it comes to the border. To what extent did they
Speaker 3: play into this result in Arizona.
Speaker 15: Yeah, the border was a huge issue in Arizona, and
Speaker 15: similarly to abortion, we had a big ballot measure that
Speaker 15: gives the Arizona State law enforcement the power to both
Speaker 15: arrest and deport immigrants who cross into Arizona unlawfully.
Speaker 14: So that's a really really conservative border policy.
Speaker 15: There's a good chance that may never make it into
Speaker 15: a lot probably has quite a bit of a legal
Speaker 15: battle ahead of it.
Speaker 14: That ballot measure passed overwhelmingly.
Speaker 15: A significant portion of Democrats supported that, So we saw
Speaker 15: Bouplicans voting in favor of abortion rights and Democrats voting
Speaker 15: in favor of this really.
Speaker 14: Punitive border policy.
Speaker 15: So you can see how voters here in Arizona we're
Speaker 15: taking these issues pretty seriously and considering them separate from
Speaker 15: the presidential race.
Speaker 2: Well, but when we consider the presidential race of the
Speaker 2: future look ahead to twenty twenty eight, what lesson needs
Speaker 2: to be learned for the Democratic Party that they need
Speaker 2: to do differently the next go around to be able
Speaker 2: to win the state of Arizona. Is it going to
Speaker 2: have to be a border hawk at the top of
Speaker 2: the ticket.
Speaker 15: Well, I think we've got months, if not years, of
Speaker 15: speculation or you know, did or did not go wrong
Speaker 15: for the Democrats or in this election, I will say that,
Speaker 15: you know, Donald Trump currently looks like he's winning Arizona
Speaker 15: by about four percentage points. That would still put him
Speaker 15: in probably one of the lowest margins of victory ever
Speaker 15: for a Republican candidate in Arizona who still wins the state.
Speaker 15: He set that record already in twenty sixteen. So we're
Speaker 15: not seeing overwhelming support for Donald Trump in Arizona. We
Speaker 15: do have an electorate here that is, you know, definitely
Speaker 15: more Republicans than Democrats. Our registration numbers show about a
Speaker 15: six percentage point advantage for Republicans and about a third
Speaker 15: who identify as independence. So a four percentage point win
Speaker 15: for Trump and Arizona is still a fairly narrow margin,
Speaker 15: especially in a state with more Republicans than that.
Speaker 14: Now, obviously what the Democrats were hoping for was a win.
Speaker 15: The fact of the matter is Democrats rarely win in
Speaker 15: presidential elections in Arizona.
Speaker 14: We did it once in the nineties, we did once
Speaker 14: in twenty twenty.
Speaker 15: But Arizona's you know, we typically vote for Republicans at
Speaker 15: the presidential race.
Speaker 14: And I don't know if we can take.
Speaker 15: This win by Trump and say that the Democrats have
Speaker 15: lost Arizona. I think it's still in this long term
Speaker 15: trend away from being a heavily Republican state more toward
Speaker 15: a purple state.
Speaker 3: Well, professor, I know that your specialty covers more than
Speaker 3: just Arizona, and I wonder just broadly speaking about the
Speaker 3: results this week, save a few of the races that
Speaker 3: have yet to be called. Your thoughts on the comment
Speaker 3: from Bernie Sanders that the Democratic Party abandoned the working
Speaker 3: class in for the working class abandoned the Democratic Party.
Speaker 3: Nancy Pelosi is speaking to The New York Times today
Speaker 3: condemning those remarks, saying Bernie Sanders has not won, and
Speaker 3: I have a great deal of respect for him, but
Speaker 3: says she does not respect him, saying the Democratic Party
Speaker 3: has abandoned working class families.
Speaker 4: Was that part of the narrative?
Speaker 7: Well, again, I.
Speaker 15: Think it's going to be months of speculation here. What
Speaker 15: did or did not? What did the Democrats do right
Speaker 15: or wrong? We know that there has been a global
Speaker 15: trend since twenty twenty two of income in parties losing
Speaker 15: their elections. The United States is now part of that.
Speaker 15: We know that we've had a high levels of inflation
Speaker 15: since COVID. The Biden white House was going to have
Speaker 15: a hard time getting a second term, and Harris was
Speaker 15: seen as part of that administration. So, you know, I
Speaker 15: don't know if I'm ready or anyone should be at
Speaker 15: this point to pinpoint one specific thing that went wrong.
Speaker 15: I think Bernie Sanders is correct in suggesting that the
Speaker 15: economy was the number one issue and if the Democrats
Speaker 15: were to win, they really had to connect with voters
Speaker 15: on how they were going to improve their financial lives.
Speaker 3: Always a great conversation with University of Arizona Political Science
Speaker 3: Professor Samara Klar, Professor, Thank you so much for the insights.
Speaker 4: It's great to have you with us.
Speaker 3: We'll have our panel together next Kaylee, and lots to
Speaker 3: talk about with Rick Davis and Genie shan Zanol. It's
Speaker 3: quite a bit of news has broken here, including the
Speaker 3: news about Jack Smith. YEP, it looks like the two
Speaker 3: trials he was pursuing, the two cases against Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: are coming to it.
Speaker 2: At least that's what the Department of Justice would like
Speaker 2: to continue, abiding by their long standing policy of not
Speaker 2: prosecuting US presidents while they're in office. We'll see if
Speaker 2: the judge cooperates with that. Joe and just reminds us
Speaker 2: we still have much more news to go even as
Speaker 2: we wrap up this election week. Here live from New
Speaker 2: York on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken
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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.
Speaker 2: We'll be back in Washington next week. And you know
Speaker 2: who else is going to be back in Washington next week,
Speaker 2: Joe Congress, specifically the US Senate, which has leadership in
Speaker 2: a minute elections that will start in earnest come next week.
Speaker 3: We've got a specific focus on the leadership battle in
Speaker 3: the Senate because now we do know that it will
Speaker 3: be led by Republicans, Kaylee. There will be a vote
Speaker 3: next week. This is going to be one of the
Speaker 3: big stories that we are talking about in what is
Speaker 3: currently a three way race to replace Mitch McConnell. We're
Speaker 3: joined now by Bloomberg Government Congress reporter Zach Cohen, who's
Speaker 3: got his eyes on this for us. He lives in
Speaker 3: Breathes Capitol Hill, and there's a question, Zach, about whether
Speaker 3: the election of Donald Trump will effectively scramble that three
Speaker 3: way race, bringing someone else like a Steve Daines. I
Speaker 3: know that there's been some report that he might not
Speaker 3: want to go in that direction. But when it comes
Speaker 3: down to the two Johns Thune and Cornyn ad Rick Scott,
Speaker 3: how's this race shaping up?
Speaker 16: Well, Certainly Trump hasn't formally endorsed any candidates in this race.
Speaker 16: In fact, sentimentary whip. John Thune, one of the front
Speaker 16: runners for this job, Republican from South Dakota, has actually
Speaker 16: said a couple of times in the last couple of
Speaker 16: days that Trump should stay out of this contest. That
Speaker 16: it could actually backfire in a couple of ways if
Speaker 16: there are members of the Centate Republican conference who say,
Speaker 16: I'm not a big fan of Trump weighing in on
Speaker 16: what is a secret vallo at very personal election. You
Speaker 16: have to remember that Senate Republicans are not just picking
Speaker 16: a majority leader. They're picking their top fundraiser, their chief tactician.
Speaker 16: Somebody is going to need to have their back on
Speaker 16: all the major legislative and political fights in the coming
Speaker 16: months and years. And so certainly Rick Scott, the Republican
Speaker 16: of Florida, who was just re elected on the same
Speaker 16: ballot as Trump, much closer to Trump than certainly Thuon
Speaker 16: or Cornyn is has been agitating for that endorsement for
Speaker 16: some time. He's told me he wants it and has
Speaker 16: been elevating endorsements from key Trumpian figures in hopes that
Speaker 16: could sway a couple of Senators to his side. But
Speaker 16: it has to be emphasized as a secret ballot election.
Speaker 16: This is not a speaker race, and so certainly there's
Speaker 16: less influence here that we've seen in the McCarthy or
Speaker 16: Mike Johnson fights.
Speaker 2: Is there any potential really for a dark horse there
Speaker 2: than Zach Because obviously there's been a lot of buzz
Speaker 2: about Steve Danes, who's coming off a very successful cycle
Speaker 2: with not just the Senate majority attained, but more seats
Speaker 2: added than was understood to be likely. What role is
Speaker 2: he really going to play?
Speaker 16: Yeah, Steve Danes, the Republican from Montana who chaired the
Speaker 16: National Republican Senatorial Committee, and I believe the top fundraiser
Speaker 16: for all Senate Republicans in the last two years in
Speaker 16: that position, and certainly Republicans coming in with probably fifty
Speaker 16: three seats, assuming this call in Pennsylvania holds and the
Speaker 16: current leads for Democrats in Nevada and Arizona, whole fifty
Speaker 16: three seats is certainly bigger than anything Demo rats had
Speaker 16: during the Biden administration, and it gives them some leeway
Speaker 16: on things like the twenty twenty six Senate races or
Speaker 16: on votes on really critical legislation going forward. Danes has
Speaker 16: said that he doesn't want to run for a leader.
Speaker 16: There had been some speculation that Trump could push him
Speaker 16: into that race, or that, you know, you could have
Speaker 16: a mandate basically for that job. But certainly I've seen
Speaker 16: some reporting that he is in favor of Thune instead
Speaker 16: for that role, and so someone could jump into the
Speaker 16: last minute. Nothing is stopping them, there's no filing deadline.
Speaker 16: But Thun Cornyn especially had been running for this job
Speaker 16: for months at this point, and a number of Republicans
Speaker 16: have already dedicated their support for one of those candidates
Speaker 16: or for Rick Scott, and so it's going to be
Speaker 16: harder for a dark horse to come in at this juncture.
Speaker 3: Well, what does a post McConnell world look like in
Speaker 3: the Senate? Are we going to see some deal making
Speaker 3: that kind of waters down the authority of the leader
Speaker 3: in the upper chamber as some have suggested. We saw
Speaker 3: what Kevin McCarthy experienced making a deal like that.
Speaker 16: Yeah, I mean with some of that debate that will
Speaker 16: be up for debate Tuesday night. Senate Republicans, basically as
Speaker 16: soon as they get back to Washington are going to
Speaker 16: meet behind closed doors and talk with the candidates for
Speaker 16: later about what changes, if any, that they would support
Speaker 16: that could potentially weaken the leadership position. There are certain
Speaker 16: proposals raised by Senator Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah.
Speaker 16: He chairs the Steering Committee, which is essentially a group
Speaker 16: of sort of hard right Republicans similar to the Freedom
Speaker 16: Caucus in the House, that have been asking for things
Speaker 16: that would make it harder for the leader, for instance,
Speaker 16: to stop debate on a bill when they're fighting over
Speaker 16: amendments in order to move a must pass vehicle forward,
Speaker 16: or maybe limiting the ability of the leader to name
Speaker 16: his allies to key committees. After Lee and Scott lost
Speaker 16: their seats on the Commerce Committee when Scott ran against
Speaker 16: macconnell in twenty twenty two, and so the key question
Speaker 16: becomes what concessions do people like Thune or Corn and
Speaker 16: make to appease some of these folks who maybe on
Speaker 16: a second ballot once Rick Scott doesn't have the support
Speaker 16: to go forward. Assuming that is the case, you know,
Speaker 16: where do those folks go and what concessions do poon
Speaker 16: and corn and make to try to get that support.
Speaker 16: Certainly there's a broad interest in trying to limit the
Speaker 16: power or the leader at something.
Speaker 7: McConnell is the.
Speaker 16: Longest serving leader in American history of either Democrats or Republicans.
Speaker 16: And I think there's a lot of interest from committee
Speaker 16: chairs to rank and file to having more say in
Speaker 16: these legislative vehicles. And that's going to have a really
Speaker 16: critical impact on things like the tax dots some job
Speaker 16: Zach renewaled, the Task Code overhaul from the Trump administration
Speaker 16: on government funding, on all of that that's going to
Speaker 16: come up in the next two years.
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Government Congress reporter Zach Cohen, thank you
Speaker 2: so much. Now, as we consider Senator Mitch McConnell, who
Speaker 2: was about to see his long tenure in Senate leadership,
Speaker 2: and we of course heard from the man himself in
Speaker 2: the aftermath of the election results. Here is McConnell in
Speaker 2: his own words.
Speaker 17: With regard to the Senate, and you guys know how
Speaker 17: long I've been round. I had really hoped I'd be
Speaker 17: able to hand over to my successor the majority I've
Speaker 17: been the majority leader, I've been the minority leader. Majority
Speaker 17: of a lot.
Speaker 2: Joining us now is someone who used to work for
Speaker 2: Senator McConnell. He's now principal and co leader of Washington
Speaker 2: National Tax Services as Pricewater house Cooper's ro Hit Kumar
Speaker 2: is back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Served
Speaker 2: as deputy chief of staff and domestic policy director for McConnell.
Speaker 2: Roe Hit, thanks so much for being with us. I
Speaker 2: would love just your reflection on the legacy McConnell is
Speaker 2: leaving here after eighteen years serving in this leadership position.
Speaker 2: He said, I was hoping I would be able to
Speaker 2: hand things over in the majority, and that's exactly what
Speaker 2: he's getting.
Speaker 18: Yeah, I mean, he's getting what he had what he
Speaker 18: wished would happen, which was a Senate Republican majority. But
Speaker 18: it'll be interesting because, as Zach referenced in the prior segment,
Speaker 18: you know, one of the big fights that's coming ahead
Speaker 18: of Congress in twenty twenty five is this expiration of
Speaker 18: all the twenty seventeen individual and pass through tax provisions.
Speaker 18: And Senator McConnell actually had a fair bit of experience
Speaker 18: in dealing with these expirations in twenty ten, then again
Speaker 18: in twenty twelve after they expired yet a second time,
Speaker 18: it was Senator McConnell and then Vice President Biden who negotiated,
Speaker 18: you know, a resolution to those fiscal cliffs. And so
Speaker 18: this sort of next time around, you're gonna have a
Speaker 18: whole new set of actors. No one that was there
Speaker 18: last time will be there this time. At least they
Speaker 18: won't be in the room. President Biden will long rey President.
Speaker 18: Senator McConnell will still be in the Senate and could
Speaker 18: be a sort of a sounding board, much in the
Speaker 18: way that former Speaker Pelosi has stayed in the House
Speaker 18: and I think served as a resource to Minority Leader Jeffries.
Speaker 18: But he won't be the one, presumably in the room
Speaker 18: in the final negotiations, because that's the role for the
Speaker 18: new leader, whoever that ends up being.
Speaker 3: So, what's your thought on the leadership battle here? Will
Speaker 3: it be one of the three that we have been
Speaker 3: mentioning Thoon, Cornyn Scott? Could that pool expand because of
Speaker 3: the election of Donald Trump? And no matter who gets
Speaker 3: this job, what will it mean for the culture of
Speaker 3: the Upper Chamber?
Speaker 13: Yeah?
Speaker 18: So, I mean it's always gospel that someone else throws
Speaker 18: their hat into the ring, but it would be extraordinarily
Speaker 18: difficult for someone to do so at this stage in
Speaker 18: the equation. The vote is scheduled to happen next week.
Speaker 18: The three candidates that are running have been running for
Speaker 18: the bulk of the year ever since Sint McConnell announced
Speaker 18: that he was not going to stand for a leader again.
Speaker 18: And is that indicated in the prior segment. It's a
Speaker 18: secret ballot vote. So even if someone were knew or
Speaker 18: to throw their hat in the ring, and even if
Speaker 18: they were to secure the endorsement of the president elect,
Speaker 18: you know, it's not a speaker vote.
Speaker 13: It's not done in public.
Speaker 18: You can promise that you're going to vote for whoever
Speaker 18: you think you need to promise you're going to vote for,
Speaker 18: but then at the you know, in the end of
Speaker 18: the day, you get to cast your vote wherever you
Speaker 18: choose to. And I think that was part of the
Speaker 18: sort of the Senator thuns sort of the rationale for
Speaker 18: his argument for why endorsements are not wise here because
Speaker 18: you just never know if it's going to be outcome determinative,
Speaker 18: and you riskalienating you know, if your preferred candidate doesn't prevail,
Speaker 18: then you're riskalienating whoever does prevail.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 2: Of course, while this leadership election is going to get
Speaker 2: started next week, the new majority won't act be seated
Speaker 2: with that new leader in place until January, when they'll
Speaker 2: have to start working on the very ambitious agenda outlined
Speaker 2: by President elect Donald Trump. It's something Rowhit that we
Speaker 2: spoke about with Senator Bill Haggerty of Tennessee last night
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. This is what he told us,
Speaker 2: and we'll have your respond.
Speaker 12: President Trump's overarching goal is to see a lot more
Speaker 12: economic growth here in this economy. You can count on
Speaker 12: another effort to undertake a massive deregulation thrust. By some measures,
Speaker 12: the cost of deregulation under the Biden administration has been
Speaker 12: more than a trillion dollars. It's a compliance burden that
Speaker 12: is enormous. That's something that can be lifted on our businesses.
Speaker 12: It will have an impact in a positive way on
Speaker 12: the economy, and that can be undertaken without any cost.
Speaker 2: And I wonder Rohit as we consider the cost here,
Speaker 2: just the way in which even deregulation, how quickly it
Speaker 2: would move through this incoming administration and Congress. What help
Speaker 2: us set realistic expectations here if you would.
Speaker 18: Yes, Deregulation can happen sort of one of two ways.
Speaker 18: Ones more sort of quicker than the other. The ascent
Speaker 18: that there are pending regulations that have not yet been finalized.
Speaker 18: Then on day one of new new administration and the
Speaker 18: ut is typically in a new administration, you get sort
Speaker 18: of a pencils down order across the board whatever you're
Speaker 18: working on, stop, let us take a moment evaluate where
Speaker 18: things stand, if we want to pursue this regulation, or
Speaker 18: if we want to go a different direction, or we
Speaker 18: don't want to do it in some cases, and maybe
Speaker 18: we don't want to do this at all. We don't
Speaker 18: think there's any version of this that's a good idea.
Speaker 18: So that's not a lifting of a current burden. But
Speaker 18: to the ecent that there's a proposed regulation out there,
Speaker 18: and you know the private sector was preparing to comply
Speaker 18: with some version of that regulation and altering its behavior
Speaker 18: and anticipation of that rule being finalized, you know that
Speaker 18: has sort of an.
Speaker 13: Immediate effect on behavior.
Speaker 18: The other is if there is a regulation that's already
Speaker 18: been finalized, and if it was finalized long enough ago
Speaker 18: that it's not subject to congressional review, then the way
Speaker 18: to undo it is, frankly, you have to issue a
Speaker 18: new regulation, which means you have to go propose a
Speaker 18: new rule, go through a notice in comment period, and
Speaker 18: that can take you know, several months, maybe even you know,
Speaker 18: up to a year or longer, depending on the complexity
Speaker 18: of the rule. How quickly you get a new proposal out,
Speaker 18: you know, how many comments you get, things like that.
Speaker 18: And then for rules that were finalized within sixty legislative days,
Speaker 18: and legislative days is an important concept here, within sixty
Speaker 18: legislative days of the end of the session, those rules,
Speaker 18: in theory are eligible for review by the new Congress
Speaker 18: using sort of what's called the Congressional Review Act, which
Speaker 18: is a statute that dates back to the mid nineties,
Speaker 18: was used probably most expansively in the first Trump administration,
Speaker 18: again coming off Democratic administration with a bunch of rules
Speaker 18: that Republicans were not fans of, and I think they
Speaker 18: overturned sixteen rules using the Congressional Review Act in the
Speaker 18: early part of twenty seventeen. So you would anticipate some
Speaker 18: of the more recent rules, the ones that were finalized,
Speaker 18: you know, in the latter half of twenty twenty four,
Speaker 18: perhaps being eligible for deregulatory moves, but by an Act
Speaker 18: of Congress, it does require the President to sign the
Speaker 18: disapproval resolution into law, which is why it would not
Speaker 18: have been effective if you know, President Biden and reelected
Speaker 18: or President Harris, if Vice President Harris has become President Harris.
Speaker 13: But in a change in administration, it opens.
Speaker 18: Up the aperture for that form of deregulatory movement as well.
Speaker 4: Right he you mentioned the Trump era tax cuts.
Speaker 3: Our audience should know you helped to lead pwdc's National
Speaker 3: Tax Office. And as we focus our conversation here on
Speaker 3: the Senate, if the House does turn democratic, I realize
Speaker 3: the odds are better for a Republican led House. What
Speaker 3: would it mean for the effort to extend or make
Speaker 3: permanent the tax cuts?
Speaker 18: So I mean clearly it would be a different negotiation
Speaker 18: if it's divided government. And my anticipation is that that
Speaker 18: negotiation drags into the you know, the wee hours of
Speaker 18: twenty twenty five, you know, somewhere between Thanksgiving and the
Speaker 18: end of the calendar years, when that negotiation probably takes
Speaker 18: off in earnest not unlike the tw twelve fiscal cliff negotiations,
Speaker 18: which took off really in earnestness, like the week of
Speaker 18: Christmas going into the new year. And in that scenario,
Speaker 18: you would anticipate some pressure on the headline corporate rate,
Speaker 18: and you would expect some pressure on the top marginal
Speaker 18: rate returning from thirty seven to thirty nine to six,
Speaker 18: and you know, perhaps a debate about what income level
Speaker 18: that upper bracket, that higher upper top bracket would kick in.
Speaker 18: And then in addition to that, you would anticipate House
Speaker 18: Democrats to continue to pursue the preferred version of the
Speaker 18: child tax credit, a pretty dramatic expansion of the child
Speaker 18: tax credit, if not the twenty twenty one version in
Speaker 18: the American Rescue Plan, but something approaching that. But you know,
Speaker 18: it'll be interesting to see how Democrats would have to
Speaker 18: just sort of figure out what to prioritize. Is it
Speaker 18: prioritizing raising taxes on corporations and upperingom individuals, Is it,
Speaker 18: you know, prioritizing tax relief for lower and middlecome families,
Speaker 18: you know, with some leverage, but not you know, without
Speaker 18: the Senate, without the White House, you don't have an
Speaker 18: unlimited amount of leverage. So to be interesting to see
Speaker 18: what do House Democrats to if they were to find
Speaker 18: themselves in the majority, What would they prioritize in a negotiation,
Speaker 18: and what would they you know, say, look, if we
Speaker 18: had total control, we would do these things. But with
Speaker 18: only the House, you know, we we have to focus
Speaker 18: our political capital on the places where it matters most.
Speaker 4: We're out of time.
Speaker 3: But is John Thune in the lead to replace Mitch McConnell.
Speaker 13: That is the conventional wisdom.
Speaker 18: But you know, these are notoriously tricky things to predict
Speaker 18: because it is a secret ballot. And I think it
Speaker 18: was Center Alexander Lamar. Alexander who's no longer in the Senate,
Speaker 18: you know, said at one point he wrote, you know,
Speaker 18: like something like twenty five thank you notes for twenty
Speaker 18: four votes. So it does happen sometimes that people say
Speaker 18: they're going to do something, but in the you know,
Speaker 18: in the secret ballot, they do something.
Speaker 4: Perhaps else, let's compare notes once we know.
Speaker 3: Co leader of PWC's National Tax Office, thank you so
Speaker 3: much for being with us year.
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
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