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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, car Play, and then Broun Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We got the first confirmation of who will be close

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Speaker 2: to the forty seventh president last night when Trump announced

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Speaker 2: in a statement that Susie Wiles will be his chief

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Speaker 2: of staff, the first ever female White House chief of

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Speaker 2: staff in American history. She, of course, one of the

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Speaker 2: architects of his successful campaign this cycle. And we just

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Speaker 2: got some more news from the Financial Times reporting that

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Speaker 2: Robert Leitheiser, who of course was the US Trade Representative

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Speaker 2: in the first Trump administration, has been asked back to

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Speaker 2: take that job again as he builds out his cabinet.

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Speaker 2: The Financial Times also reporting that Robert O'Brien, who served

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Speaker 2: as the National Security Advisor during the first Trump admin

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Speaker 2: will not be returning, but again, according to the ft

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Speaker 2: Lightheiser will.

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Speaker 3: Be yeah reprising his earlier role, having also expressed interest

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Speaker 3: in serving as Treasury Secretary. There are a lot of

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Speaker 3: names around that job We talked to one of them

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Speaker 3: yesterday in Senator Haggerty, the Republican from Tennessee, didn't have

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Speaker 3: much to say on that front. But one of the

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Speaker 3: names being considered here on a list that we're going

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Speaker 3: to talk about here with Laura Davison, Bloomberg Politics editor,

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Speaker 3: is joining us off the top here from Washington, d C.

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Speaker 3: With her eyes on the transition. Laura, it's great to

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Speaker 3: see you. We just checked one name off the list here, Lightheiser,

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Speaker 3: second round.

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Speaker 4: What do you think?

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Speaker 5: So this really suggests that the aggressive trade policy that

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Speaker 5: Trump had in his first term, he's ready to do that.

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Speaker 6: Plus some we already know.

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Speaker 5: That he wants to do across the board tariffs of

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Speaker 5: ten percent, perhaps up to sixty percent from imports from China.

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Speaker 5: So the fact that this is one of the earliest

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Speaker 5: names coming out right after White House Chief of Staff

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Speaker 5: indicates that this is a top priority for Trump. We

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Speaker 5: know that, you know, day one, day two, day three,

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Speaker 5: he wants to start on this tariff policy. This is

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Speaker 5: something he doesn't need Congress, he doesn't need the agencies.

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Speaker 5: He could do by executive action, and so we should

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Speaker 5: anticipate to see that, you know, come January twenty something.

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Speaker 2: Well, so this would be a return act, obviously, Laura,

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Speaker 2: do we have an understanding of who else from the

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Speaker 2: first Trump admin might be returning for the second go around,

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Speaker 2: knowing that a lot of people who were close to

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty are no longer.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, and there's a lot of folks who Trump

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Speaker 2: has said, you know, if he had to do it again,

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Speaker 2: and now he you know, is doing it again, he

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Speaker 2: would not have hired.

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Speaker 6: He's suggested that was one of the mistakes. You know,

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Speaker 6: folks like Rex Tillerson. There are other people that we

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Speaker 6: may see, names like Mike Pompeo are back in the mix.

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Speaker 6: You know, of course he was Secretary of State and CIA.

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Speaker 5: Other people on the national security front, people like Rick

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Speaker 5: Grinnell may be back in the fold. You know, this

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Speaker 5: is all being worked out and down at mar Alago.

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Speaker 5: Trump is taking a bunch of meetings with a bunch

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Speaker 5: of folks are there at mar Alago, hanging out in

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Speaker 5: Palm Beach waiting to see if they can get a

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Speaker 5: little bit of FaceTime with the President. Wiles and you know,

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Speaker 5: potentially Elon Musk, who's also reportedly down there well, that's

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Speaker 5: got to.

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Speaker 4: Be quite a party.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the form Secretary of State, suggesting he might

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Speaker 3: be Secretary of Defense this time around, Secretary Pompeo and

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Speaker 3: Senator Marco Rubio's name continues to emerge for a potential

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Speaker 3: state role. Does that sound realistic to you? Knowing that

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Speaker 3: would create another seat to fill?

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Speaker 5: Yes, in the Senate, it's much easier. You hear there's

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Speaker 5: a Republican governor, Rondo Santis. Of course he could appoint

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Speaker 5: someone to fill Marco Rubio's seat. Someone else who we

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Speaker 5: may see is Doug Bergham, governor North Cota governor, who

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Speaker 5: was also a vice presidential contender like Rubio. Where it

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Speaker 5: gets tricky is with these House appointments. There's a bunch

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Speaker 5: of House members, folks like Brian jack Elis Staphonic Mike Walls,

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Speaker 5: who are interested in jobs. Because we don't know yet

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Speaker 5: know the size of the majority Republican majority, or if

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Speaker 5: there will be a Republican majority at all, there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of concern that if they pull people from the

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Speaker 5: House to some of these cabinet level jobs, that it

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Speaker 5: means that Republicans either won't have a majority or at

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Speaker 5: least not a big enough one to get through the

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Speaker 5: policy agenda. So folks who are in the House are

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Speaker 5: being told that their candidacy is a little bit on

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Speaker 5: ice right now.

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Speaker 6: While that all being sorted in.

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Speaker 2: The House, we're also getting some more reporting from the

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Speaker 2: Financial Times about the potential Commerce secretary. Apparently Trump is

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Speaker 2: likely to offer that job to Linda McMahon, who of

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Speaker 2: course ran the Small Business Administration during his first admin.

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Speaker 2: So that would be another familiar face according to the FT.

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Speaker 2: As we consider this transition process, knowing we have heard

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Speaker 2: from both the loser in this presidential race, Vice President

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harrison, President Biden himself yesterday pledging a peaceful, smooth

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Speaker 2: transition of power, do.

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Speaker 6: We have a sense of the extent to which the.

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Speaker 2: Trump transition team really wants to be working with the

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Speaker 2: incumbent administration, knowing their skepticism around the General Services Administration,

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Speaker 2: the US intelligence agencies. Could this still be tricky?

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Speaker 5: Yes, this could be very tricky, and so the public posture,

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Speaker 5: you know, the statements from Trump and his team have

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Speaker 5: been very positive and warm to the president. They've accepted

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Speaker 5: Biden's offer to come to the White House and meet,

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Speaker 5: but behind the scenes there is concern about, you know,

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Speaker 5: the sort of the FBI running some of the background checks.

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Speaker 5: The team hasn't yet you know, signed on to use

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Speaker 5: federal buildings for the transition. This is all being run

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Speaker 5: out of mar A Lago. They've not yet taken federal

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Speaker 5: government money. So this is there's still a very much

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Speaker 5: a rift between where the Trump team is and you know,

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Speaker 5: sort of integrating back into the federal government.

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Speaker 4: It's really fascinating. Should we expect that to change?

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Speaker 3: Or is that the way this goes simply move everybody

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Speaker 3: into the administration once Joe Biden leaves. And to that end,

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Speaker 3: is there going to be the traditional welcoming of the

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Speaker 3: family in the on the South Portico They're going to

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Speaker 3: have breakfast together before the inaugural or does that just

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Speaker 3: sound like comedy right now?

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Speaker 6: We'll see how that goes.

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Speaker 5: Biden, at least publicly has sort of indicated that he

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Speaker 5: wants to have this peaceful transition of power, do you know,

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Speaker 5: do everything, sort of buy the book and that would

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Speaker 5: be sort of the traditional way of doing it. It's

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Speaker 5: also noteworthy to note that, you know a lot of

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Speaker 5: the people that that Trump wants to.

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Speaker 6: Bring in may not be able to be confirmed. So

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Speaker 6: this is sort of one of the things that's being discussed.

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Speaker 5: If you know, if they can't be confirmed by the

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Speaker 5: Senate or maybe can't pass a background check, you know,

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Speaker 5: what are sort of the ways that that Trump could

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Speaker 5: bring these people into special advisor roles in the White

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Speaker 5: House that don't involve sort of the normal govern apparatus.

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Speaker 2: Well, that confirmation will get easier, presumably with every additional

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Speaker 2: Republican Senate seat in the majority. Laura, Obviously, fifty three

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Speaker 2: is where we stand right now. It's unclear whether or

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Speaker 2: not that's going to be expanded via Arizona or Nevada.

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Speaker 2: But how much does that matter that this isn't a

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Speaker 2: fifty one forty nine Senate we're looking at.

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Speaker 5: It gives Republicans in the Senate a lot more room

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Speaker 5: for error. They can lose some of these more moderate

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Speaker 5: members Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, they don't have to support

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Speaker 5: some of the more controversial or far right nominees and

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Speaker 5: they can still pass through. So this gives Trump and

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Speaker 5: his team a lot more leeway of who they can

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Speaker 5: bring forward. You know, they just need a simple majority,

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Speaker 5: and you know, when you look at the roster of

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Speaker 5: Republican senators, the vast majority are.

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Speaker 6: Very closely aligned with Trump.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: As I alluded to you, right now, the Senate as

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Speaker 2: it stands is fifty three forty five fifty three, of course,

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Speaker 2: the size of the Republican majority at this time. The House,

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Speaker 2: though Joe, remains too close to call. Right now, Republicans

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Speaker 2: have won two hundred and eleven seats, Democrats one ninety nine.

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Speaker 2: There are y five left to be called, and of

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Speaker 2: course it takes two hundred and eighteen to have a majority.

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Speaker 4: This still could go either way.

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Speaker 3: I think favored Republican right now, but as we warned

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Speaker 3: everyone on Tuesday, California is going to end up deciding

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Speaker 3: this in Kaylee, we just have no idea when that's

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Speaker 3: going to be done.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it could take some time still, but we want

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Speaker 2: to get a check in on sentiment within the Democratic

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Speaker 2: caucus in the House. And turn to Florida Congressoman and

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Speaker 2: former DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who is joining us

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Speaker 2: now here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressoman, thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for your time. Could you just share with

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Speaker 2: us what you're hearing from your leadership in the House

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Speaker 2: the degree of confidence or not that is being projected.

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Speaker 7: Helly and Joe, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 8: And you know, what we're focused on right now with

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Speaker 8: twenty five seats still outstanding in terms of the election result,

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Speaker 8: is making sure that every vote is counted. And you know,

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Speaker 8: we've seen in the past efforts to you know, try

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Speaker 8: to cast doubt on the counting process in the West,

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Speaker 8: on the West Coast in particular, there are a lot

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Speaker 8: of mail ballots. Washington State, Arizona, Oregon actually conduct all

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Speaker 8: or nearly all of their elections by mail, and California

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Speaker 8: has postmarked by election day. So we've got a long

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Speaker 8: three day weekend with Veterans Day on Monday, so we

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Speaker 8: have a little bit of time before we're going to

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Speaker 8: know how this plays out. And we have to just

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Speaker 8: make sure that ballots are cured because people have an

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Speaker 8: opportunity when there's been a mistake that's been made to

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Speaker 8: fix their ballot so that their intention is clear.

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Speaker 7: And so in America, we've got.

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Speaker 8: To make sure that we've followed the law and make

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Speaker 8: sure that every valid boat has an opportunity to be counted.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to walk you into too much speculation here,

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Speaker 3: but I do wonder if Democrats take control of the House,

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Speaker 3: and that is going to be the scenario where we

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Speaker 3: have a split Congress and a Donald Trump administration on

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Speaker 3: the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, what would be the

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Speaker 3: role of what I presume would be a very thin majority,

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Speaker 3: not unlike Republicans have right now. Would it be one

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Speaker 3: of insurgency, would it be the party of no What

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Speaker 3: would Democrats consider their role in government to be?

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Speaker 8: Well, if we do have an opportunity to serve in

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Speaker 8: the majority, as you said, it would be with a

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Speaker 8: slim majority, and that's the situation that the Republicans have now. Regardless,

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Speaker 8: it would be a slim majority either way.

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Speaker 7: We've had a lot.

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Speaker 8: Of success as Democrats in the minority with the Republicans

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Speaker 8: only having a five and then a four seat majority

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Speaker 8: and being able to make sure that we were the

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Speaker 8: party of normalcy.

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Speaker 7: I mean they couldn't because they can't.

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Speaker 8: Haven't been able to get out of their own way

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Speaker 8: and even pass legislation with a majority. They've needed Democrats

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Speaker 8: to be able to not shut the government down. They've

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Speaker 8: needed Democrats to be able to not crash the economy

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Speaker 8: into a cliff by lifting and lift the debt ceiling.

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Speaker 8: We've had so many things that have happened as a

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Speaker 8: result of Democrats being Team normal because Republicans were Team extreme.

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Speaker 8: That will particularly be important with Donald Trump and the

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Speaker 8: White House. If we have the majority, we're going to

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Speaker 8: need to make sure that we are the backstop to

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Speaker 8: stop mass deportations, to stop him from bringing to a

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Speaker 8: screeching halt all of the progress been able to make.

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Speaker 2: Well on the subject of Donald Trump. Congresswoman, we are

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Speaker 2: getting some breaking news just crossing the wire here at

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Speaker 2: the US Special Council. Jacksmith has officially asked the courts

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Speaker 2: to pause the prosecution against Donald Trump. He will announce

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Speaker 2: plans for Trump's case by December second. Keeping in mind

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Speaker 2: here there were two federal cases against Donald Trump, two indictments,

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Speaker 2: one in Washington, DC related to results of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty election and the attempt to subvert them, another in

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Speaker 2: your state of Florida, the Classified Documents case, Congresswoman, Largely,

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Speaker 2: this move from Jacksmith was expected. The DOJ has a

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Speaker 2: policy that says president of the United States shouldn't be prosecuted,

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Speaker 2: but I do wonder your reaction to this news. Keeping

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Speaker 2: in mind already he has become a convicted felon in

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Speaker 2: a state case, but federal is different.

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Speaker 7: That's right.

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Speaker 8: The thirty four account felonies that he's been convicted of

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Speaker 8: at the state case, and there's still a sentencing that

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Speaker 8: awaits him.

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Speaker 7: The federal cases, let's remember.

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Speaker 8: Include that Donald Trump incited an into insurrection on January sixth,

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Speaker 8: and that he egregiously violated the federal law and took

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Speaker 8: home and refused to turn over as the law requires,

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Speaker 8: vital intelligence documents that he hoarded and that he showed off.

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Speaker 7: So it is essential to our.

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Speaker 8: National security that these cases be able to play out.

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Speaker 8: But we do have Supreme Court decisions that established immunity,

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Speaker 8: so those limitations exist, and it's going to have to

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Speaker 8: be sorted out on the federal cases that remain. The

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Speaker 8: state case is I think something that we're going to

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Speaker 8: have to keep an eye out on. Certainly, Donald Trump

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Speaker 8: had his day in court, was convicted on all thirty

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Speaker 8: four counts by a jury of his peers, and a

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Speaker 8: sentence should hold him accountable.

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Speaker 3: Congresswoman, should President Biden pardon Donald Trump before he leaves

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Speaker 3: the White House.

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Speaker 8: I'm not going to be here and tell President Biden

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Speaker 8: what he should do. I personally don't think there should

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Speaker 8: be pardons coming in these cases. These are very very

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Speaker 8: serious crimes that he's committed. The cases should play out

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Speaker 8: under the rules that the Supreme Board has structured, and

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Speaker 8: so no, I don't think that that President Biden should

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Speaker 8: be pardoning him. President Biden, I know we'll be focused

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Speaker 8: on trying to make sure we can continue to finish

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Speaker 8: our agenda strong continue to bring down the cost of

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Speaker 8: prescription drugs through the continued negotiation. After the Inflation Reduction

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Speaker 8: Act successfully brought down the cost of so many prescription drugs,

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Speaker 8: that has to continue.

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Speaker 7: We have to continue to make sure we.

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Speaker 8: Bring the Chips Act implementation forward because as Speaker Johnson

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Speaker 8: clearly indicated that they were going to look at trying

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Speaker 8: to repeal that that would be outrageous. We need to

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Speaker 8: make sure that we manufacture computer chips in the United States,

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Speaker 8: continue to create those homegrown jobs.

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Speaker 7: So we have a lot to do while the lame

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Speaker 7: Duck Session is in.

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Speaker 2: Session well and in the remainder of Biden's presidency. Congressman,

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Speaker 2: I don't have to tell you that there is within

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Speaker 2: your party. A lot of blame being cast on Biden

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Speaker 2: for not stepping away from his reelection campaign as sooner you,

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Speaker 2: of course, used to chair the DNC. We can, I

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Speaker 2: guess Friday morning quarterback this all we want to. I

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Speaker 2: wonder though, if you can diagnose what went wrong in

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Speaker 2: this cycle and what the Democrats need to do differently

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Speaker 2: in the midterms in twenty twenty six and then looking

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Speaker 2: forward to twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 8: I've been through a lot of aftermath analyzes in the

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Speaker 8: post election losses, and one thing that we need to

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Speaker 8: not do is fingerpoint. The blame game is inappropriate. Look,

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Speaker 8: we have to face some hard realities here. We had

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Speaker 8: tremendous accomplishments under President Biden.

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Speaker 7: We have the strongest.

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Speaker 8: Economy in the globe post but we failed to connect,

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Speaker 8: obviously with a lot of key constituencies that were previously

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Speaker 8: supportive of Democrats, and we've got some work to do that.

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Speaker 8: I know we're going to come together as a family

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Speaker 8: and focus on under Hockem Jeffreys remarkable leadership, whether he

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Speaker 8: is the Minority leader or the Speaker of the House

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Speaker 8: of Representatives, and I still think that's possible. We need

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Speaker 8: to come together with our other Democratic leaders on the

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Speaker 8: leadership team that I'm proud to be a member of

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Speaker 8: and do an analysis. And we have to make sure

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Speaker 8: that we focus on the priorities of the American people.

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Speaker 8: That the diffuse communications system that exists today made it

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Speaker 8: uneable for us to penetrate.

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Speaker 7: We have to make sure people know we understand the

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Speaker 7: challenges that they face.

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Speaker 8: When I was on the campaign trail, Kayley, you know,

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Speaker 8: I still hear from people about the price of groceries.

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Speaker 8: We cannot let grocery companies not pass on savings that

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Speaker 8: they are clearly feeling in the retail at the retail level,

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Speaker 8: and we have to make sure that we're listening to

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Speaker 8: people and responding about the impact of the remaining dreads

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Speaker 8: of inflation.

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Speaker 7: That still exists.

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Speaker 3: Congressim and Kayley recalls your time when you chaired the DNC,

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Speaker 3: and we all remember shortly after twenty twelve, the autopsy

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Speaker 3: that the Republican National Committee put forth.

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Speaker 4: It was one hundred page report.

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Speaker 3: Remembered Ryan's previous said, we're going to put our cards

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Speaker 3: face up on the table and better appeal to Latino

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Speaker 3: American voters. That was part of the outcome of this

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Speaker 3: election that in some cases Latino's broke for Trump, and

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Speaker 3: I wonder your thoughts on why we only have a

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Speaker 3: couple of minutes. I don't want to set you up

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Speaker 3: here for too much of a dissertation, but what would

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Speaker 3: your autopsy say today?

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Speaker 8: I represent a very large Hispanic constituency in my congressional

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Speaker 8: district and that outreach is absolutely critical.

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Speaker 7: I wouldn't say that the Republicans under Trump have done

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Speaker 7: such a good job.

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Speaker 8: Allowing someone to call the the island of Puerto Rico

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Speaker 8: a floating island of garbage right before election day probably

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Speaker 8: wasn't the best way to show that they support Hispanics.

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Speaker 8: But we have to recognize Hispanics are a multi ethnic population.

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Speaker 8: They can't be treated as one size fits all and

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Speaker 8: you can only talk to them near an election, and

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Speaker 8: that's something that we have to get to work on.

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Speaker 8: And we have to make sure that we're talking to

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Speaker 8: them about their priorities the economy, education, healthcare. That's top

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Speaker 8: of the list. And then we also obviously have to

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Speaker 8: deal with immigration challenges and some of the other things

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Speaker 8: that are more uniquely specific to the Hispanic community as well.

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Speaker 4: We're going to do that and more Congress.

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Speaker 3: Congress will be great to have you back. W Wasser

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Speaker 3: Minchell of Florida. Appreciate the conversation and have a great weekend, Kayley.

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Speaker 3: With breaking news today. This is going to be one

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Speaker 3: of these days with races breaking and news on the transition,

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Speaker 3: with more headlines crossing the terminal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah again, the Special Counsel Jack Smith asking the court

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Speaker 2: to pause the prosecution against Donald Trump. Jacksmith, of course

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Speaker 2: overseeing the two federal cases against Donald Trump. The state

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Speaker 2: cases are another matter. As we discussed with the congresswoman.

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Speaker 2: He's already a convicted felon based off of the state

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Speaker 2: case in New York around falsifying business records, but his

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Speaker 2: team is also pushing for the other state case, the

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Speaker 2: racketeering case in Georgia, also related of course to the

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Speaker 2: results of the twenty twenty election, to be tossed as well.

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Speaker 2: So we'll continue to keep track of these developments. Get

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Speaker 2: reaction from our signature political panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie

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Speaker 2: Shanzeno right here on Balance of Power Live from New

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Speaker 2: York on Bloomberg TV and read.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecarplay in Enroudoto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The election, of course, is over, but we are still

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Speaker 2: dealing with breaking news as it comes in pertaining to

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Speaker 2: the outstanding Senate and House races, but also pertaining to

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Speaker 2: the ongoing legal cases at least for now against the

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Speaker 2: President elect Donald Trump. But news breaking just moments ago

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Speaker 2: Joe that the special counsel Jack Smith has asked the

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Speaker 2: federal judge overseeing specifically the election interference case against Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump to cancel all upcoming court deadlines in a step toward.

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Speaker 7: Dropping the case.

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Speaker 3: I guess we'll be making a filing on December two.

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Speaker 3: Kind of an anti climactic finish. It appears to be

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Speaker 3: for this massive effort that Jack Smith put together in

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Speaker 3: these two cases. And we're joined right now on this

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Speaker 3: breaking news by Bloomberg Legal reporter Eric Larson, who's been

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Speaker 3: covering this since the very beginning.

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Speaker 4: Eric, this is how it ends.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, we will see what the judge says,

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Speaker 9: but the writing was on the wall as soon as

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Speaker 9: Trump won the election, and just a few days ago,

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Speaker 9: of course, we learned that the Justice Department was already

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Speaker 9: looking into ways to make these two cases go away.

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Speaker 9: And of course it is a result of this Justice Department,

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Speaker 9: long standing Justice Department policy that you can't prosecute a

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Speaker 9: sitting president. Of course Trump is not president yet, but

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Speaker 9: they want to get these cases, I think, out of

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Speaker 9: the way before his inauguration, and this is the first

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Speaker 9: step in doing this.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, it's too late for one case against

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump already eric in the falsifying business records case

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Speaker 2: here in New York, he already was convicted on all

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Speaker 2: thirty four felon accounts, making him a convicted fella. He's

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Speaker 2: supposed to be convicted, or rather sentenced in that case

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Speaker 2: on November twenty six, just a few weeks from now.

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Speaker 2: Is that still going to happen.

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Speaker 9: Well, as of right now that that date is still

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Speaker 9: on the books, but you can expect that Trump's lawyers

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Speaker 9: are going to make a strong push to prevent this

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Speaker 9: sentencing from going forward. Of course, he faces as long

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Speaker 9: as four years behind bars for these crimes. And even

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Speaker 9: though most legal experts have said that he would probably

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Speaker 9: get far less than that, or even just probation. I

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Speaker 9: don't think going to want a judge to be able

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Speaker 9: to issue any kind of sentence at all before the

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Speaker 9: president elect takes office. So just a mere threat that

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Speaker 9: it could be a sentence of incarceration that would hang

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Speaker 9: over him as he takes office would be the argument

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Speaker 9: that they would make about interfere with a president's constitutional

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Speaker 9: rights and interfere with his ability to do the important

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Speaker 9: work of office.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Eric Larson, thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: jumping on the phone with us as we handle this

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Speaker 2: breaking news. Appreciate your time. And of course there's another

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Speaker 2: case to consider here as well, Joe another state case,

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Speaker 2: the one brought against him and many other defendants in Georgia,

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Speaker 2: also related to efforts to overturn the twenty twenty election.

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Speaker 2: That's the rocketeering case that the DA Fulton County Finnie

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Speaker 2: Willis has brought. It's unclear how that moves forward.

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Speaker 6: The Trump team would like it not.

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Speaker 4: To, that's for sure.

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Speaker 3: And we have to remember that even if there was

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Speaker 3: a Biden pardon, that doesn't apply to state level cases.

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Speaker 3: So it's an interesting component here to this whole story.

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Speaker 3: Remarkable though, just within days of this election turnout. We're

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Speaker 3: having this conversation right now. I want to bring in

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Speaker 3: our signature panel. Rick Davis, Stone Court, Capital partner, Republican

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Speaker 3: strategist and Genie Shanzano, political science professor at Iona University,

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Speaker 3: Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of

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Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress?

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Speaker 4: Is this how you saw it ending?

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Speaker 10: Yeah, this is how it should end. I mean, the

441
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Speaker 10: Justice Department should move forward with dropping these charges. Their

442
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:34,199
Speaker 10: long standing prohibition against prosecuting a president should apply to

443
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 10: a president elect. It is unhealthy for the democracy and

444
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 10: I hope that Alvin Bragg, the DA in Manhattan, is

445
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 10: able or the just judges in New York are able

446
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,640
Speaker 10: to put that to rest as well, because we do

447
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 10: have to move forward and this cannot continue. You cannot

448
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 10: do democracy in the courts. It has to be decided

449
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 10: at the ballot box. He won and we have to

450
00:21:58,240 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 10: get behind him and move forward.

451
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,160
Speaker 2: Rick could another way of viewing this is the Justice

452
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 2: Department abiding by what the will of seventy four million

453
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 2: Americans is.

454
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 11: Yeah, Well, you don't want to just trust seventy four

455
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 11: million Americans to decide what is legal and what is

456
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 11: not legal, right, No one should be above the law,

457
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 11: and sitting presidents don't have immunity against their personal acts, right,

458
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 11: So just to put it in that context, but it

459
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 11: is not healthy for democracy to be chasing after former

460
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 11: presidents or current presidents. You know, four things done not

461
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 11: related to their official acts of the presidency. So I

462
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 11: think we should have all learned our lesson on this.

463
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 11: You know, the indictments of Donald Trump buoyed his campaign

464
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,120
Speaker 11: in the primary when other people were running against him,

465
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 11: and in assuming those things were all done for the

466
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 11: right reason, it was because of the normal course of

467
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 11: the legal system. We really did bend the political dynamic

468
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 11: here by having all this legal activity around Donald Trump

469
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 11: during a presidential year.

470
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 12: I s W.

471
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 3: Wasserman Schultz'll ask you, should Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump?

472
00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 10: No, you know, I don't think so. I would hope that.

473
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 4: That'd be good for the sake of the democracy.

474
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 10: You know, I don't think he needs to pardon him.

475
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 10: I think the Justice Department does what Jack Smith is

476
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,479
Speaker 10: asking them to do, and in these state cases, the

477
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 10: New York and Georgia, which are very different cases, they

478
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 10: move forward as well and ensure that there is no

479
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 10: issue involving prison or anything else, and let's put this

480
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 10: behind us. I don't think we need to see Joe

481
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 10: Biden doing a pardon. And I do think it's a

482
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:41,959
Speaker 10: reminder that what Mitch McConnell said during the impeachment and

483
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 10: then the trial of that this should be handled in

484
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 10: the courts was dead wrong. These are political decisions, and

485
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 10: he should have stepped up if he thought Donald Trump

486
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 10: was guilty, which he said he did, and he should

487
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 10: have brought Republicans along to remove him from office at

488
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 10: that point, not throw this to the judiciary.

489
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: Well, but when we consider the future of the judiciary,

490
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 2: obviously donald Trump, we don't know who it is yet

491
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,880
Speaker 2: we'll be able to point his own attorney general will

492
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,120
Speaker 2: have a new looking Department of Justice, and we should

493
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 2: point out consistently during his campaign Whrick he talked about

494
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 2: weaponizing that against his political opponents and the way he

495
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: felt it had been weaponized against him in all of

496
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 2: these cases, this retribution tour. Should we still expect that

497
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 2: to happen or if they go away, does this all

498
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:26,919
Speaker 2: move into the quiet?

499
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 11: Oh well, we'll never know, right, I mean, I don't

500
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 11: think you can predict an outcome on anything in a

501
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 11: prospective administration, whether it's Donald Trump's or anybody else's. That

502
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 11: being said, I thought Mitt Romney had to write concept

503
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,479
Speaker 11: eight months ago, you know, before this campaign really heated up,

504
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 11: and said that the President Biden should have pardoned him

505
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,719
Speaker 11: at the time these charges were brought. In other words,

506
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 11: you know, why wait till all of this unfolds and

507
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 11: all this negativity takes hold in our society when it

508
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 11: would have been appropriate for one president to pardon another

509
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 11: this has happened before. The last thing we should be

510
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 11: doing is prosecuting for if there's any shade of political

511
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 11: motivation to it, are leaders. And so if you want

512
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 11: to healthy democracy, you got to take a step back

513
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 11: from this kind of lawfair.

514
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,360
Speaker 3: Well, as Donald Trump watches all of this unfold, he's

515
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 3: not waiting around to find out. He's going ahead with

516
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: the transition and reaching out to world leaders.

517
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 4: There was a phone.

518
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 3: Call, as we already talked about, with President Zelenski of Ukraine,

519
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 3: and there's reporting today, Genie that Elon Musk was also

520
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 3: on that call. Of course, the Starlink service has I

521
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 3: guess something to do with the conversation here about the

522
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 3: way forward in Ukraine. But what does that mean for

523
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 3: what this administration is going to look like in the

524
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 3: role that Musk will play, because it seems like a

525
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: pretty big one.

526
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean out of Tuesday night, in addition to

527
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 10: Donald Trump, the big winner there was Elon Musk, and

528
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 10: that is very clear. He was at this speech at

529
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 10: mar A Lago on Tuesday. Wednesday morning, he is on

530
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 10: the phone with his Lelensky and we assume other world leaders.

531
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 10: He has said he will take some kind of role,

532
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 10: not necessarily a cabinet position, certainly in the administration. So

533
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 10: he has a big role to play. And I think

534
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 10: it's going to be the job of the investigative press

535
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 10: to be the watchdog. We hope that they are, and

536
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 10: to follow what is happening, because this is somebody whose

537
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 10: business in life benefits enormously from billions of taxpayer dollars.

538
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,120
Speaker 2: So whether or not Elon Musk is in the cabinet

539
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: remains unclear, but we are getting more reporting on what

540
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 2: that cabinet could look like from the Financial Times this hour. Rick,

541
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 2: you guessed this last night when we were on balance

542
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: of Power. Apparently he's looking at Linda McMahon, the former

543
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: a small Business Administrator for Commerce Secretary Robert O'Brien, who

544
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: was NSA or National Security Advisor during the Trump aadmin,

545
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 2: will not be coming back, but coming back for a

546
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 2: second round. US Trade Representative Robert.

547
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 11: Robert Leitheiser the probably the sharpest protectionist in the Republican Party,

548
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 11: and he, you know, as far as Donald Trump was concerned,

549
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 11: he did it exactly the right thing in his first term,

550
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 11: organizing the terraf regime against China and others. So we

551
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 11: can expect a lot of that to happen again. Look,

552
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 11: I think one of the things we're going to be

553
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 11: surprised about is that there aren't going to be that

554
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 11: many big surprises, you know, around Donald Trump's selection of

555
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 11: people for his cabinet or his sub cabinet. You know,

556
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 11: it's a trust relationship there, and these are all talented people.

557
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,360
Speaker 11: I mean, Lenna McMahon, you know, really did a fabulous

558
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 11: job at the Small Business Administration, especially as COVID started

559
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 11: to take a hold. So I think we can anticipate

560
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 11: a professional cabinet, but one that is intensely loyal and

561
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 11: so you know, and look, I mean I think the

562
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 11: jury's out right now. We don't know what role Elon

563
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,160
Speaker 11: Musk is going to take. But Elon Musk has has

564
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 11: reformed the space program, satellite program, infrastructure development. I mean,

565
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 11: we could do worse than to have someone like him

566
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 11: sitting now the president when he's making decisions. That being said,

567
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 11: we'll see where he winds up if there is an

568
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 11: official position for him.

569
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 3: It's a former lawyer for the US steel industry, which

570
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: kind of gives us an interesting backdrop for the Nipon

571
00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 3: proposed acquisition of US Steel, which obviously Donald Trump doesn't

572
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 3: want to see happen. But what is disappointment He hasn't

573
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 3: accepted it yet. Suggest about Trump two point.

574
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 10: Zero, You know, I think Trump two point zero in

575
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 10: this way, I think is not going to be like

576
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 10: you know, unlike Trump one point zero. He didn't have

577
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 10: much use for the cabinet beyond some critical positions. He

578
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 10: left a lot of that to his folks, and his

579
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 10: one number one demand was loyalty and assisting him and

580
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 10: fulfilling his promises. So I think that's what we are

581
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 10: seeing here, and I think you know what we're hearing

582
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 10: also is that those people who cannot make it through

583
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 10: Senate confirmation, and there are some, are going to be

584
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 10: put into the White House as officials. So I think

585
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 10: we're going to see a movement of officials who can

586
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 10: get through confirmation going that route to the cabinet all

587
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 10: of the other ones, and we know their names are

588
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 10: going to be put in the White House regardless. And

589
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 10: I do think on Elon Musk, we have a system

590
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 10: of checks and balances. We do not anoint somebody to

591
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 10: fix infrastructure and everything else without those checks. So he

592
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 10: is brilliant and he does a lot, but he also

593
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 10: needs to be checked.

594
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 4: We know their names. Steve Bannon, who are you talking about?

595
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 10: Oh, well, we know their names, right, Steve Bannon. You

596
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 10: can think about I mean, we can think of a

597
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 10: whole host of people. We know some of those people.

598
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 10: You know, when you think just about Steven Miller on

599
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 10: the issue of you know, trying to, for instance, work

600
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 10: on his number one promise, which is deportation, that is

601
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 10: Stephen Miller's game. He won't make it through a Senate confirmation,

602
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 10: but he'll do it once again from the White House.

603
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: Well, it'll get easier with every additional senator in the

604
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 2: Republican majority. Right right, there's still two races outstanding.

605
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 4: Still two races outstanding.

606
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 11: I think we're at fifty three, so yeah, I mean,

607
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 11: I don't think additional races will matter other than you know,

608
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 11: comfort going forward when you need to get a closure

609
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 11: vote for sixty. So the real question is for fiscal issues,

610
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 11: whether or not Republican majority will hold in the House.

611
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 11: I think we're going to be waiting around till California

612
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 11: counts all their ballots, so that could be weeks before

613
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 11: we actually know the content of Congress.

614
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 4: Ho about Arizona, You've got people on the ground there.

615
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 4: When are we going to get a call for the

616
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 4: Senate race? I think very soon.

617
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 11: They are fifty forty five thousand votes still uncounted. Most

618
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 11: of those are in Maricopa County, and the way Maricopa

619
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 11: County releases things, it's in the order of which they

620
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 11: came in. So last night, for instance, we got a

621
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 11: release from people who dropped off ballots on election day.

622
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 11: They didn't vote on election day by walking in and

623
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 11: casting a vote. They voted by just turning in their

624
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 11: ballot like they mailed it that same day. So those

625
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 11: were counted, and you know, Republicans picked up a little bit,

626
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 11: So we'll see.

627
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll find out while we're in the late edition,

628
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 3: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano, thank you so much.

629
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

630
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

631
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

632
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

633
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: In Arizona, which hasn't been called at the presidential level,

634
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: I would add though Donald Trump obviously is leading it

635
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: at this stage in the count and it ultimately won't

636
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: matter for electoral college purposes. But in the Senate race,

637
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: it's actually a bit tighter than many people and dissipated

638
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 2: Reuben Diego, the Democratic candidate, only up right now by

639
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: one and a half percentage points on the Republican candidate

640
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 2: Kerrie Lake with seventy seven percent of the vot's counted.

641
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 3: Very interesting to see what the next job from Maricopa

642
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: County brings and whether this race is called over the weekend.

643
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 3: We knew Arizona would take a long time, but this

644
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 3: is one.

645
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 13: Of the last two.

646
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: So let's go to an expert on Arizona politics now

647
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 2: joining us as Samara clar She's professor of Political Science

648
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 2: at the University of Arizona. She's also co author of

649
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: the book Partisan Hostility and America Democracy, Explaining political divisions. Samaraw,

650
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 2: thanks for coming back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Last

651
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: we spoke was in the wee hours in the aftermath

652
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 2: of the election on Wednesday morning. When we look at

653
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: this Senate race, this tight margin between Diego and Lake,

654
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 2: knowing Diego was pretty consistently with a healthy lead on

655
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: Lake in the polls, what are you thinking here?

656
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 6: Is there a chance Lake pulls us out?

657
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 14: I mean, there's a chance. It hasn't been called.

658
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:30,560
Speaker 15: Geygo's maintained his league throughout the account and you know,

659
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 15: we still I think we're now at seventy eight percent,

660
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 15: seventy nine percent reporting he's up by a point and

661
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 15: a half. Anything could happen. That's why it hasn't been called.

662
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 15: They won't call it till they know for sure. I

663
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 15: know it looks as though, you know, he's still obviously

664
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 15: outperforming Harris, who is more significantly behind Donald Trump. That,

665
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 15: as you mentioned, hasn't been called either, but it is

666
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 15: sure to be called for Trump now. There we knew

667
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 15: there was a percentage of Trump voters who were going

668
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 15: to be voting for Gego. It looks as though that

669
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 15: did happen. The question is how many of those Trump

670
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 15: voters stuck with that decision and decided to vote for Gyego.

671
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 15: How many of them may be decided to not vote

672
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 15: in the Senate at all. But we won't know until

673
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 15: this thing.

674
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 14: Is all done.

675
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 9: Well.

676
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 3: Based on where we are in the count here, is

677
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 3: there still a path for carry Lake to win?

678
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 15: From last I checked it to but a point and

679
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 15: a half and there's but twenty percent votes coming in.

680
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 14: It's possible.

681
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 15: If we're impossible, they would have called it already. I

682
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 15: think that it looks unlikely. I mean, it looks as

683
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 15: though Gayego will most likely hold on to the lead,

684
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 15: but we don't know. I mean, Arizona is a state

685
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 15: where candidates win by incredibly tiny margins. I mean, in

686
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 15: our house race right now, I believe Christian Engel is

687
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 15: ahead of Sisco Moni by just.

688
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 14: A couple hundred votes. So this is the Arizona way.

689
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 14: Every single vallat has to be counted before we know

690
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 14: for sure.

691
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 2: That's the Arizona way. What about the Carrie Lake Way? Samara?

692
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 2: We all remember her failed gubernatorial bid in which she

693
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 2: never actually accepted that she lost the race.

694
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 7: How would we expect.

695
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: It to go down if indeed this is ultimately called

696
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: for guyego with the story Necessarily they're based off of

697
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 2: what we've experienced in the past.

698
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 15: Well, listen, we know that Carrie Lake did not accept

699
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 15: that defeat in twenty twenty two against Katie Hobbes. I

700
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 15: think things are a little different now and that Trump

701
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 15: has won, and he probably doesn't want to be part

702
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 15: of a real the election is rigged, a narrative that

703
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 15: doesn't really benefit him, and I think there probably is

704
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 15: a little lot less of an appetite for it among

705
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 15: Republican voters in Arizona generally. I think the momentum towards

706
00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:29,439
Speaker 15: this election de nihilism has certainly calmed a bit in Arizona,

707
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 15: and Trump being the victor is kind of going to

708
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 15: seal the deal on that. I don't think Trump wants

709
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 15: to discuss rigged elections or fake elections. He's won, He's

710
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,920
Speaker 15: happy with it, and I don't think carry Blake's going

711
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 15: to have a lot of support if she starts, you know,

712
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 15: sharing conspiracy theories about election de nihilism.

713
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 13: Again, there was a.

714
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 4: Lot of reportings somewhere on.

715
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 3: Bloomberg did quite a bit of reporting as well on

716
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: the hardening of polling locations, the drone coverage, snipers on roofs,

717
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 3: the extent to which Arizona went to create some confidence

718
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 3: around the system here and also protect the vote from

719
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,840
Speaker 3: poll watchers or other bad actors. Potentially, how did Arizona

720
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,760
Speaker 3: do because there were no reports of trouble that I saw.

721
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 7: That's right.

722
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 15: I mean, Arizona and the election officials here worked really

723
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 15: over time to try to ensure that there was absolutely

724
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 15: no doubt that our elections were being conducted fairly, that

725
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 15: everybody was going to feel secure. I was doing polling

726
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 15: on Arizona where I asked voters, do you believe that

727
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 15: elections in Arizona are safe and trustworthy? The overwhelming majority

728
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 15: of Democrats believed they were. Republicans were split about fifty

729
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,560
Speaker 15: to fifty. We had about half of Republicans saying yes,

730
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 15: I have confidence in our elections, half of Republicans saying no.

731
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 15: Those without confidence in the elections were significantly more likely

732
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 15: to vote for Donald Trump. As it happens, as it

733
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 15: probably is in part due to some of the messaging

734
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 15: he shared since twenty twenty, but ultimately we've heard of

735
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 15: no funny business going on with our elections, and hopefully

736
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 15: once this is all said and done, people will be

737
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 15: able to move on well tomorrow.

738
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 2: As we discussed with you the morning after the election,

739
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: Arizona also had abortion on the ballot in this cycle,

740
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 2: abortion rights were protected at the same time, and that

741
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 2: it looks like Donald Trump will have the state called

742
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 2: for him at some point. And I wonder if we

743
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 2: can treat Arizona as a microcosm for the way all

744
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 2: of this played out on the national level, which is

745
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,920
Speaker 2: that abortion is not quite the mobilizing issue that Democrats

746
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,960
Speaker 2: were necessarily counting on. That maybe issues like the immigration issue,

747
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 2: obviously hyper relevant in a border state like Arizona, are

748
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 2: much more significant.

749
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 14: Sure well, I'd say.

750
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 15: Probably the most significant issue for voters in Arizona was

751
00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 15: the economy. They were repeatedly saying that that was the

752
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,760
Speaker 15: issue most important to them Latino voters, non Latino voters,

753
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 15: men and women.

754
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,760
Speaker 14: The economy was really number one for voters.

755
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 15: I don't know if we can necessarily say that having

756
00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 15: abortion on the ballot didn't help Harris.

757
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 14: It may have actually helped Harris we don't know.

758
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 15: This counterfactual world where abortion wasn't on the ballot possible,

759
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 15: she may have done worse without it.

760
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 14: But having abortion on the.

761
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 15: Ballot certainly did allow pro choice Republicans the option of

762
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:02,479
Speaker 15: supporting their preferred candidate, Donald Trump and supporting reproductive rights.

763
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,919
Speaker 14: And we do know that on the pulling that I've been.

764
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 15: Doing, over a third of Republicans we're planning on voting

765
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 15: in favor of this measure. So from that perspective, having

766
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 15: it on the ballot kind of gives Trump an out.

767
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 15: People can both vote for Republicans, can vote for Trump,

768
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 15: and can support abortion separately.

769
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 3: Interesting, the so called single vote, single voter when it

770
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: comes to the issue of abortion to something we've talked

771
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 3: about a lot. How about the single issue voter when

772
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 3: it comes to the border. To what extent did they

773
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 3: play into this result in Arizona.

774
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 15: Yeah, the border was a huge issue in Arizona, and

775
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,719
Speaker 15: similarly to abortion, we had a big ballot measure that

776
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 15: gives the Arizona State law enforcement the power to both

777
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 15: arrest and deport immigrants who cross into Arizona unlawfully.

778
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 14: So that's a really really conservative border policy.

779
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 15: There's a good chance that may never make it into

780
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 15: a lot probably has quite a bit of a legal

781
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 15: battle ahead of it.

782
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 14: That ballot measure passed overwhelmingly.

783
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 15: A significant portion of Democrats supported that, So we saw

784
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 15: Bouplicans voting in favor of abortion rights and Democrats voting

785
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 15: in favor of this really.

786
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 14: Punitive border policy.

787
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 15: So you can see how voters here in Arizona we're

788
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 15: taking these issues pretty seriously and considering them separate from

789
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 15: the presidential race.

790
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: Well, but when we consider the presidential race of the

791
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:20,239
Speaker 2: future look ahead to twenty twenty eight, what lesson needs

792
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 2: to be learned for the Democratic Party that they need

793
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 2: to do differently the next go around to be able

794
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 2: to win the state of Arizona. Is it going to

795
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: have to be a border hawk at the top of

796
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 2: the ticket.

797
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 15: Well, I think we've got months, if not years, of

798
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 15: speculation or you know, did or did not go wrong

799
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 15: for the Democrats or in this election, I will say that,

800
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 15: you know, Donald Trump currently looks like he's winning Arizona

801
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 15: by about four percentage points. That would still put him

802
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 15: in probably one of the lowest margins of victory ever

803
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 15: for a Republican candidate in Arizona who still wins the state.

804
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 15: He set that record already in twenty sixteen. So we're

805
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,719
Speaker 15: not seeing overwhelming support for Donald Trump in Arizona. We

806
00:38:56,800 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 15: do have an electorate here that is, you know, definitely

807
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 15: more Republicans than Democrats. Our registration numbers show about a

808
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 15: six percentage point advantage for Republicans and about a third

809
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 15: who identify as independence. So a four percentage point win

810
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,320
Speaker 15: for Trump and Arizona is still a fairly narrow margin,

811
00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 15: especially in a state with more Republicans than that.

812
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 14: Now, obviously what the Democrats were hoping for was a win.

813
00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 15: The fact of the matter is Democrats rarely win in

814
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 15: presidential elections in Arizona.

815
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 14: We did it once in the nineties, we did once

816
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:25,400
Speaker 14: in twenty twenty.

817
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 15: But Arizona's you know, we typically vote for Republicans at

818
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 15: the presidential race.

819
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 14: And I don't know if we can take.

820
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,520
Speaker 15: This win by Trump and say that the Democrats have

821
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 15: lost Arizona. I think it's still in this long term

822
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 15: trend away from being a heavily Republican state more toward

823
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 15: a purple state.

824
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 3: Well, professor, I know that your specialty covers more than

825
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 3: just Arizona, and I wonder just broadly speaking about the

826
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 3: results this week, save a few of the races that

827
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 3: have yet to be called. Your thoughts on the comment

828
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 3: from Bernie Sanders that the Democratic Party abandoned the working

829
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 3: class in for the working class abandoned the Democratic Party.

830
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 3: Nancy Pelosi is speaking to The New York Times today

831
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 3: condemning those remarks, saying Bernie Sanders has not won, and

832
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 3: I have a great deal of respect for him, but

833
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: says she does not respect him, saying the Democratic Party

834
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 3: has abandoned working class families.

835
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 4: Was that part of the narrative?

836
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 7: Well, again, I.

837
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 15: Think it's going to be months of speculation here. What

838
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 15: did or did not? What did the Democrats do right

839
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 15: or wrong? We know that there has been a global

840
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 15: trend since twenty twenty two of income in parties losing

841
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 15: their elections. The United States is now part of that.

842
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 15: We know that we've had a high levels of inflation

843
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 15: since COVID. The Biden white House was going to have

844
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 15: a hard time getting a second term, and Harris was

845
00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 15: seen as part of that administration. So, you know, I

846
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 15: don't know if I'm ready or anyone should be at

847
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:50,240
Speaker 15: this point to pinpoint one specific thing that went wrong.

848
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 15: I think Bernie Sanders is correct in suggesting that the

849
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 15: economy was the number one issue and if the Democrats

850
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 15: were to win, they really had to connect with voters

851
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 15: on how they were going to improve their financial lives.

852
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,720
Speaker 3: Always a great conversation with University of Arizona Political Science

853
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 3: Professor Samara Klar, Professor, Thank you so much for the insights.

854
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 4: It's great to have you with us.

855
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,560
Speaker 3: We'll have our panel together next Kaylee, and lots to

856
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 3: talk about with Rick Davis and Genie shan Zanol. It's

857
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 3: quite a bit of news has broken here, including the

858
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 3: news about Jack Smith. YEP, it looks like the two

859
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 3: trials he was pursuing, the two cases against Donald Trump,

860
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 3: are coming to it.

861
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 2: At least that's what the Department of Justice would like

862
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 2: to continue, abiding by their long standing policy of not

863
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 2: prosecuting US presidents while they're in office. We'll see if

864
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 2: the judge cooperates with that. Joe and just reminds us

865
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 2: we still have much more news to go even as

866
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 2: we wrap up this election week. Here live from New

867
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 2: York on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio.

868
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken

869
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

870
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:01,720
Speaker 1: Ronoo with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

871
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,000
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

872
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

873
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 2: We'll be back in Washington next week. And you know

874
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 2: who else is going to be back in Washington next week,

875
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 2: Joe Congress, specifically the US Senate, which has leadership in

876
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: a minute elections that will start in earnest come next week.

877
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 3: We've got a specific focus on the leadership battle in

878
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,439
Speaker 3: the Senate because now we do know that it will

879
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 3: be led by Republicans, Kaylee. There will be a vote

880
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 3: next week. This is going to be one of the

881
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:37,319
Speaker 3: big stories that we are talking about in what is

882
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 3: currently a three way race to replace Mitch McConnell. We're

883
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 3: joined now by Bloomberg Government Congress reporter Zach Cohen, who's

884
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 3: got his eyes on this for us. He lives in

885
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,479
Speaker 3: Breathes Capitol Hill, and there's a question, Zach, about whether

886
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 3: the election of Donald Trump will effectively scramble that three

887
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 3: way race, bringing someone else like a Steve Daines. I

888
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 3: know that there's been some report that he might not

889
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 3: want to go in that direction. But when it comes

890
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: down to the two Johns Thune and Cornyn ad Rick Scott,

891
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 3: how's this race shaping up?

892
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 16: Well, Certainly Trump hasn't formally endorsed any candidates in this race.

893
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 16: In fact, sentimentary whip. John Thune, one of the front

894
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,760
Speaker 16: runners for this job, Republican from South Dakota, has actually

895
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 16: said a couple of times in the last couple of

896
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 16: days that Trump should stay out of this contest. That

897
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 16: it could actually backfire in a couple of ways if

898
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 16: there are members of the Centate Republican conference who say,

899
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:32,279
Speaker 16: I'm not a big fan of Trump weighing in on

900
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 16: what is a secret vallo at very personal election. You

901
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 16: have to remember that Senate Republicans are not just picking

902
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 16: a majority leader. They're picking their top fundraiser, their chief tactician.

903
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 16: Somebody is going to need to have their back on

904
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 16: all the major legislative and political fights in the coming

905
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 16: months and years. And so certainly Rick Scott, the Republican

906
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 16: of Florida, who was just re elected on the same

907
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 16: ballot as Trump, much closer to Trump than certainly Thuon

908
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 16: or Cornyn is has been agitating for that endorsement for

909
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 16: some time. He's told me he wants it and has

910
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 16: been elevating endorsements from key Trumpian figures in hopes that

911
00:44:05,400 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 16: could sway a couple of Senators to his side. But

912
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 16: it has to be emphasized as a secret ballot election.

913
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 16: This is not a speaker race, and so certainly there's

914
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 16: less influence here that we've seen in the McCarthy or

915
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 16: Mike Johnson fights.

916
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: Is there any potential really for a dark horse there

917
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 2: than Zach Because obviously there's been a lot of buzz

918
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 2: about Steve Danes, who's coming off a very successful cycle

919
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 2: with not just the Senate majority attained, but more seats

920
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 2: added than was understood to be likely. What role is

921
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 2: he really going to play?

922
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 16: Yeah, Steve Danes, the Republican from Montana who chaired the

923
00:44:42,000 --> 00:44:45,320
Speaker 16: National Republican Senatorial Committee, and I believe the top fundraiser

924
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 16: for all Senate Republicans in the last two years in

925
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 16: that position, and certainly Republicans coming in with probably fifty

926
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,360
Speaker 16: three seats, assuming this call in Pennsylvania holds and the

927
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 16: current leads for Democrats in Nevada and Arizona, whole fifty

928
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 16: three seats is certainly bigger than anything Demo rats had

929
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,240
Speaker 16: during the Biden administration, and it gives them some leeway

930
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 16: on things like the twenty twenty six Senate races or

931
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,200
Speaker 16: on votes on really critical legislation going forward. Danes has

932
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,359
Speaker 16: said that he doesn't want to run for a leader.

933
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 16: There had been some speculation that Trump could push him

934
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 16: into that race, or that, you know, you could have

935
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 16: a mandate basically for that job. But certainly I've seen

936
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 16: some reporting that he is in favor of Thune instead

937
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 16: for that role, and so someone could jump into the

938
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 16: last minute. Nothing is stopping them, there's no filing deadline.

939
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 16: But Thun Cornyn especially had been running for this job

940
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 16: for months at this point, and a number of Republicans

941
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 16: have already dedicated their support for one of those candidates

942
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 16: or for Rick Scott, and so it's going to be

943
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 16: harder for a dark horse to come in at this juncture.

944
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 3: Well, what does a post McConnell world look like in

945
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,800
Speaker 3: the Senate? Are we going to see some deal making

946
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 3: that kind of waters down the authority of the leader

947
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 3: in the upper chamber as some have suggested. We saw

948
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,840
Speaker 3: what Kevin McCarthy experienced making a deal like that.

949
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 16: Yeah, I mean with some of that debate that will

950
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 16: be up for debate Tuesday night. Senate Republicans, basically as

951
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 16: soon as they get back to Washington are going to

952
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 16: meet behind closed doors and talk with the candidates for

953
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 16: later about what changes, if any, that they would support

954
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 16: that could potentially weaken the leadership position. There are certain

955
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,960
Speaker 16: proposals raised by Senator Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah.

956
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 16: He chairs the Steering Committee, which is essentially a group

957
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,240
Speaker 16: of sort of hard right Republicans similar to the Freedom

958
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,919
Speaker 16: Caucus in the House, that have been asking for things

959
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 16: that would make it harder for the leader, for instance,

960
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 16: to stop debate on a bill when they're fighting over

961
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 16: amendments in order to move a must pass vehicle forward,

962
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 16: or maybe limiting the ability of the leader to name

963
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 16: his allies to key committees. After Lee and Scott lost

964
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 16: their seats on the Commerce Committee when Scott ran against

965
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 16: macconnell in twenty twenty two, and so the key question

966
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 16: becomes what concessions do people like Thune or Corn and

967
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 16: make to appease some of these folks who maybe on

968
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,280
Speaker 16: a second ballot once Rick Scott doesn't have the support

969
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 16: to go forward. Assuming that is the case, you know,

970
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 16: where do those folks go and what concessions do poon

971
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 16: and corn and make to try to get that support.

972
00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 16: Certainly there's a broad interest in trying to limit the

973
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 16: power or the leader at something.

974
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:01,879
Speaker 7: McConnell is the.

975
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 16: Longest serving leader in American history of either Democrats or Republicans.

976
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 16: And I think there's a lot of interest from committee

977
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 16: chairs to rank and file to having more say in

978
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,320
Speaker 16: these legislative vehicles. And that's going to have a really

979
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 16: critical impact on things like the tax dots some job

980
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,400
Speaker 16: Zach renewaled, the Task Code overhaul from the Trump administration

981
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 16: on government funding, on all of that that's going to

982
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 16: come up in the next two years.

983
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Government Congress reporter Zach Cohen, thank you

984
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 2: so much. Now, as we consider Senator Mitch McConnell, who

985
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: was about to see his long tenure in Senate leadership,

986
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 2: and we of course heard from the man himself in

987
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 2: the aftermath of the election results. Here is McConnell in

988
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 2: his own words.

989
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 17: With regard to the Senate, and you guys know how

990
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 17: long I've been round. I had really hoped I'd be

991
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:56,399
Speaker 17: able to hand over to my successor the majority I've

992
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 17: been the majority leader, I've been the minority leader. Majority

993
00:47:59,719 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 17: of a lot.

994
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 2: Joining us now is someone who used to work for

995
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: Senator McConnell. He's now principal and co leader of Washington

996
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 2: National Tax Services as Pricewater house Cooper's ro Hit Kumar

997
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,840
Speaker 2: is back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Served

998
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 2: as deputy chief of staff and domestic policy director for McConnell.

999
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: Roe Hit, thanks so much for being with us. I

1000
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,440
Speaker 2: would love just your reflection on the legacy McConnell is

1001
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: leaving here after eighteen years serving in this leadership position.

1002
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 2: He said, I was hoping I would be able to

1003
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 2: hand things over in the majority, and that's exactly what

1004
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 2: he's getting.

1005
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 18: Yeah, I mean, he's getting what he had what he

1006
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 18: wished would happen, which was a Senate Republican majority. But

1007
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 18: it'll be interesting because, as Zach referenced in the prior segment,

1008
00:48:43,080 --> 00:48:45,240
Speaker 18: you know, one of the big fights that's coming ahead

1009
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 18: of Congress in twenty twenty five is this expiration of

1010
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 18: all the twenty seventeen individual and pass through tax provisions.

1011
00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 18: And Senator McConnell actually had a fair bit of experience

1012
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 18: in dealing with these expirations in twenty ten, then again

1013
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 18: in twenty twelve after they expired yet a second time,

1014
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 18: it was Senator McConnell and then Vice President Biden who negotiated,

1015
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 18: you know, a resolution to those fiscal cliffs. And so

1016
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 18: this sort of next time around, you're gonna have a

1017
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 18: whole new set of actors. No one that was there

1018
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 18: last time will be there this time. At least they

1019
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 18: won't be in the room. President Biden will long rey President.

1020
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 18: Senator McConnell will still be in the Senate and could

1021
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 18: be a sort of a sounding board, much in the

1022
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 18: way that former Speaker Pelosi has stayed in the House

1023
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:30,760
Speaker 18: and I think served as a resource to Minority Leader Jeffries.

1024
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 18: But he won't be the one, presumably in the room

1025
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 18: in the final negotiations, because that's the role for the

1026
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:38,439
Speaker 18: new leader, whoever that ends up being.

1027
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 3: So, what's your thought on the leadership battle here? Will

1028
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:43,799
Speaker 3: it be one of the three that we have been

1029
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 3: mentioning Thoon, Cornyn Scott? Could that pool expand because of

1030
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 3: the election of Donald Trump? And no matter who gets

1031
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 3: this job, what will it mean for the culture of

1032
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 3: the Upper Chamber?

1033
00:49:58,600 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 13: Yeah?

1034
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 18: So, I mean it's always gospel that someone else throws

1035
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 18: their hat into the ring, but it would be extraordinarily

1036
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 18: difficult for someone to do so at this stage in

1037
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 18: the equation. The vote is scheduled to happen next week.

1038
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 18: The three candidates that are running have been running for

1039
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 18: the bulk of the year ever since Sint McConnell announced

1040
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 18: that he was not going to stand for a leader again.

1041
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 18: And is that indicated in the prior segment. It's a

1042
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,799
Speaker 18: secret ballot vote. So even if someone were knew or

1043
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 18: to throw their hat in the ring, and even if

1044
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,360
Speaker 18: they were to secure the endorsement of the president elect,

1045
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 18: you know, it's not a speaker vote.

1046
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 13: It's not done in public.

1047
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 18: You can promise that you're going to vote for whoever

1048
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 18: you think you need to promise you're going to vote for,

1049
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 18: but then at the you know, in the end of

1050
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 18: the day, you get to cast your vote wherever you

1051
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 18: choose to. And I think that was part of the

1052
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 18: sort of the Senator thuns sort of the rationale for

1053
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,959
Speaker 18: his argument for why endorsements are not wise here because

1054
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 18: you just never know if it's going to be outcome determinative,

1055
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 18: and you riskalienating you know, if your preferred candidate doesn't prevail,

1056
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 18: then you're riskalienating whoever does prevail.

1057
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 8: Well.

1058
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 2: Of course, while this leadership election is going to get

1059
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 2: started next week, the new majority won't act be seated

1060
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:04,360
Speaker 2: with that new leader in place until January, when they'll

1061
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 2: have to start working on the very ambitious agenda outlined

1062
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: by President elect Donald Trump. It's something Rowhit that we

1063
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 2: spoke about with Senator Bill Haggerty of Tennessee last night

1064
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power. This is what he told us,

1065
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:16,320
Speaker 2: and we'll have your respond.

1066
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 12: President Trump's overarching goal is to see a lot more

1067
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 12: economic growth here in this economy. You can count on

1068
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 12: another effort to undertake a massive deregulation thrust. By some measures,

1069
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 12: the cost of deregulation under the Biden administration has been

1070
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 12: more than a trillion dollars. It's a compliance burden that

1071
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 12: is enormous. That's something that can be lifted on our businesses.

1072
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 12: It will have an impact in a positive way on

1073
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 12: the economy, and that can be undertaken without any cost.

1074
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,839
Speaker 2: And I wonder Rohit as we consider the cost here,

1075
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 2: just the way in which even deregulation, how quickly it

1076
00:51:51,760 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: would move through this incoming administration and Congress. What help

1077
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 2: us set realistic expectations here if you would.

1078
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 18: Yes, Deregulation can happen sort of one of two ways.

1079
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 18: Ones more sort of quicker than the other. The ascent

1080
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 18: that there are pending regulations that have not yet been finalized.

1081
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 18: Then on day one of new new administration and the

1082
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 18: ut is typically in a new administration, you get sort

1083
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:18,359
Speaker 18: of a pencils down order across the board whatever you're

1084
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 18: working on, stop, let us take a moment evaluate where

1085
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 18: things stand, if we want to pursue this regulation, or

1086
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:24,759
Speaker 18: if we want to go a different direction, or we

1087
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 18: don't want to do it in some cases, and maybe

1088
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 18: we don't want to do this at all. We don't

1089
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 18: think there's any version of this that's a good idea.

1090
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 18: So that's not a lifting of a current burden. But

1091
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 18: to the ecent that there's a proposed regulation out there,

1092
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 18: and you know the private sector was preparing to comply

1093
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 18: with some version of that regulation and altering its behavior

1094
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 18: and anticipation of that rule being finalized, you know that

1095
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 18: has sort of an.

1096
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 13: Immediate effect on behavior.

1097
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:51,800
Speaker 18: The other is if there is a regulation that's already

1098
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 18: been finalized, and if it was finalized long enough ago

1099
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,399
Speaker 18: that it's not subject to congressional review, then the way

1100
00:52:57,400 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 18: to undo it is, frankly, you have to issue a

1101
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 18: new regulation, which means you have to go propose a

1102
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 18: new rule, go through a notice in comment period, and

1103
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 18: that can take you know, several months, maybe even you know,

1104
00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:09,360
Speaker 18: up to a year or longer, depending on the complexity

1105
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 18: of the rule. How quickly you get a new proposal out,

1106
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,479
Speaker 18: you know, how many comments you get, things like that.

1107
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:18,479
Speaker 18: And then for rules that were finalized within sixty legislative days,

1108
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 18: and legislative days is an important concept here, within sixty

1109
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:25,280
Speaker 18: legislative days of the end of the session, those rules,

1110
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:28,560
Speaker 18: in theory are eligible for review by the new Congress

1111
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 18: using sort of what's called the Congressional Review Act, which

1112
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 18: is a statute that dates back to the mid nineties,

1113
00:53:34,440 --> 00:53:38,239
Speaker 18: was used probably most expansively in the first Trump administration,

1114
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 18: again coming off Democratic administration with a bunch of rules

1115
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 18: that Republicans were not fans of, and I think they

1116
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 18: overturned sixteen rules using the Congressional Review Act in the

1117
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:51,839
Speaker 18: early part of twenty seventeen. So you would anticipate some

1118
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 18: of the more recent rules, the ones that were finalized,

1119
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:56,879
Speaker 18: you know, in the latter half of twenty twenty four,

1120
00:53:57,320 --> 00:54:00,919
Speaker 18: perhaps being eligible for deregulatory moves, but by an Act

1121
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 18: of Congress, it does require the President to sign the

1122
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 18: disapproval resolution into law, which is why it would not

1123
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,800
Speaker 18: have been effective if you know, President Biden and reelected

1124
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 18: or President Harris, if Vice President Harris has become President Harris.

1125
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:14,800
Speaker 13: But in a change in administration, it opens.

1126
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 18: Up the aperture for that form of deregulatory movement as well.

1127
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 4: Right he you mentioned the Trump era tax cuts.

1128
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 3: Our audience should know you helped to lead pwdc's National

1129
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:28,200
Speaker 3: Tax Office. And as we focus our conversation here on

1130
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 3: the Senate, if the House does turn democratic, I realize

1131
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 3: the odds are better for a Republican led House. What

1132
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 3: would it mean for the effort to extend or make

1133
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 3: permanent the tax cuts?

1134
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 18: So I mean clearly it would be a different negotiation

1135
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 18: if it's divided government. And my anticipation is that that

1136
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 18: negotiation drags into the you know, the wee hours of

1137
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 18: twenty twenty five, you know, somewhere between Thanksgiving and the

1138
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 18: end of the calendar years, when that negotiation probably takes

1139
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 18: off in earnest not unlike the tw twelve fiscal cliff negotiations,

1140
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:04,719
Speaker 18: which took off really in earnestness, like the week of

1141
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 18: Christmas going into the new year. And in that scenario,

1142
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:12,879
Speaker 18: you would anticipate some pressure on the headline corporate rate,

1143
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,760
Speaker 18: and you would expect some pressure on the top marginal

1144
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:19,319
Speaker 18: rate returning from thirty seven to thirty nine to six,

1145
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 18: and you know, perhaps a debate about what income level

1146
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:26,319
Speaker 18: that upper bracket, that higher upper top bracket would kick in.

1147
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 18: And then in addition to that, you would anticipate House

1148
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:33,400
Speaker 18: Democrats to continue to pursue the preferred version of the

1149
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:35,759
Speaker 18: child tax credit, a pretty dramatic expansion of the child

1150
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,520
Speaker 18: tax credit, if not the twenty twenty one version in

1151
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 18: the American Rescue Plan, but something approaching that. But you know,

1152
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:43,880
Speaker 18: it'll be interesting to see how Democrats would have to

1153
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:45,880
Speaker 18: just sort of figure out what to prioritize. Is it

1154
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 18: prioritizing raising taxes on corporations and upperingom individuals, Is it,

1155
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,360
Speaker 18: you know, prioritizing tax relief for lower and middlecome families,

1156
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:56,239
Speaker 18: you know, with some leverage, but not you know, without

1157
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:57,799
Speaker 18: the Senate, without the White House, you don't have an

1158
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 18: unlimited amount of leverage. So to be interesting to see

1159
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,359
Speaker 18: what do House Democrats to if they were to find

1160
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 18: themselves in the majority, What would they prioritize in a negotiation,

1161
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 18: and what would they you know, say, look, if we

1162
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 18: had total control, we would do these things. But with

1163
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:13,760
Speaker 18: only the House, you know, we we have to focus

1164
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 18: our political capital on the places where it matters most.

1165
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 4: We're out of time.

1166
00:56:17,280 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 3: But is John Thune in the lead to replace Mitch McConnell.

1167
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:22,280
Speaker 13: That is the conventional wisdom.

1168
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:26,240
Speaker 18: But you know, these are notoriously tricky things to predict

1169
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 18: because it is a secret ballot. And I think it

1170
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 18: was Center Alexander Lamar. Alexander who's no longer in the Senate,

1171
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:33,719
Speaker 18: you know, said at one point he wrote, you know,

1172
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:35,759
Speaker 18: like something like twenty five thank you notes for twenty

1173
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:39,439
Speaker 18: four votes. So it does happen sometimes that people say

1174
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 18: they're going to do something, but in the you know,

1175
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:42,640
Speaker 18: in the secret ballot, they do something.

1176
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 4: Perhaps else, let's compare notes once we know.

1177
00:56:45,880 --> 00:56:48,640
Speaker 3: Co leader of PWC's National Tax Office, thank you so

1178
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 3: much for being with us year.

1179
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1180
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already Apple, Spotify,

1181
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1182
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:05,480
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

1183
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com