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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome in to an All Star Break

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Speaker 2: Monday morning episode of the Daily Juice podcast. My name

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Speaker 2: is Matt Pelt. You guys can follow me across all

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Speaker 2: of my socials at Sports Talk Matt and we Well,

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Speaker 2: we hit the All Star break kind of at a

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Speaker 2: bad time, because that was a good week. We were

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Speaker 2: rolling big win yesterday, Red Sox, money line, Brewers, run line,

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Speaker 2: Perez under Brown over four excuse me, four and oh

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Speaker 2: on the day, up three units for us, and we

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Speaker 2: wind up ending the first half of the twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: five baseball season with the record. Get this, This is

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Speaker 2: if you guys were with us last year, different story.

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Speaker 2: Fifty seven and forty four A. We are up nine

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Speaker 2: point eight units for the first half of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five baseball season, considering what happened last year, considering

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Speaker 2: that we basically buried the entire year in July last year.

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Speaker 2: This is a good thing, like this is good to

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Speaker 2: have this, and we hit the All Star Break and

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Speaker 2: now we get a chance to calibrate a little bit.

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Speaker 2: I have got two bets for us tonight with the

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Speaker 2: home run derby. These are somewhat for fun bets, and

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Speaker 2: I have another future as we start to continue to

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Speaker 2: build the portfolio of Major League Baseball teams that I

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Speaker 2: want to grab value and grab tickets on as we

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Speaker 2: head towards the post season. So not a huge card today,

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Speaker 2: not a ton going on on this Monday.

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Speaker 1: This is the dead week.

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Speaker 2: Of the sports calendar. But this is kind of like

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Speaker 2: New Year's right. People often say the All Star break

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Speaker 2: from Major League Baseball is January first, when we hit

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Speaker 2: this period of time or now turning the page and

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Speaker 2: we start to really look at college football, the countdown

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Speaker 2: is on. We're about forty days away or so from

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Speaker 2: week zero and August to twenty third to get going

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Speaker 2: with that, and then we get heavily into the NFL

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Speaker 2: and we are rolling here with the sports calendar back

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Speaker 2: on for twenty four or twenty five and twenty six.

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Speaker 2: So good day yesterday, good first half. We went too

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Speaker 2: and zero in the player props. We are fifteen and fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Now for our player props. We're up about a half

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Speaker 2: a unit in Major League Baseball player props.

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Speaker 1: But you know, better than losing.

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Speaker 2: And thanks to the other bets, the straight bets, the

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Speaker 2: full unit plays, we're up nearly ten units in Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball for twenty twenty five, which.

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Speaker 1: Is really good.

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Speaker 2: And looking forward to seeing the second half of the

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Speaker 2: baseball year continuing. I mean, the Red Sox won ten

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Speaker 2: straight games, ten straight games, Balmar, time to go to

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Speaker 2: a break. Don't want to go to a break. Let's

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Speaker 2: keep on rolling. Fenway's been I mean, Brian Buckson, I mean, sorry,

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Speaker 2: Brian Beyo for the Red Sox, yesterday was tremendous. I

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Speaker 2: mean the Red Sox starting pitching has been great, bullpen's

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Speaker 2: been phenomenal. Okay, I mean Boston's odds to win the

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Speaker 2: American League East after yesterday went from ten to one

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Speaker 2: to six to one in one day because of what

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Speaker 2: happened with the Rays and the Red Sox sweeping the

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Speaker 2: Rays winning ten in a row, and now with the

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Speaker 2: Yankees scuffling and not playing very good baseball at the moment,

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Speaker 2: and the Blue Jays having their time. Red Sox, Okay,

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Speaker 2: my team's got something to say here in the second

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Speaker 2: half with what they have done offensively and defensively. But

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Speaker 2: pitching has been the story over the last two weeks

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Speaker 2: for the Boston Red Sox. So very happy about that.

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Speaker 2: Before I give you the picks. Let's talk about what

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Speaker 2: you guys can do with the Betting Pros app and

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Speaker 2: a Betting Pros system. This is something you guys can

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Speaker 2: build during the break, and it may be a perfect

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Speaker 2: time to go and do it during the Major League

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Speaker 2: Baseball All Star Break because you have a betting system

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Speaker 2: tool that is designed to help you find winning strategies

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Speaker 2: and make smarter bets. Customize your betting systems systems excuse

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Speaker 2: me by sport, bet type and timeframe to find the

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Speaker 2: best opportunities using real time data in expert analysis, track

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Speaker 2: the performances of different betting systems over time, and optimize

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Speaker 2: your bets to increase your chances of success. Download the

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Speaker 2: Betting Pros app today or go to bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 2: slash systems to elevate your betting strategy and start making

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Speaker 2: smarter bets.

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Speaker 1: All right, look at it's the home run derby. This is.

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Speaker 2: Wonky, Okay. The format is always changing. Whether or not

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Speaker 2: the balls are juiced always comes around, okay, always part

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Speaker 2: of the conversation. I have two bets, both of them

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Speaker 2: are half unit plays. This is just to have a

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Speaker 2: little action and have a sweat and something to watch

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Speaker 2: here coming up for the home run Derby, I'm going

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Speaker 2: to focus on one player, and I'm going to focus

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Speaker 2: on O'Neill Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, a couple

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Speaker 2: of things. When you play in a small market like Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 2: you are going to try to get yourself as much

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Speaker 2: attention as possible.

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Speaker 1: This is not Aaron Judge.

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Speaker 2: This is not your typical home run Derby lineup. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I'm not totally under selling the guys. Kyle Raley is

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Speaker 2: a switch hitting, power hitter. But when you look at

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Speaker 2: the average or the prop for longest home run for

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Speaker 2: these players, it's not that impressive. I mean, Brett Rooker

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Speaker 2: is four hundred and fifty two and a half feet,

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Speaker 2: Byron Buction is four hundred and sixty and a half

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Speaker 2: feet now last year. If you're wondering about how far

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Speaker 2: the balls went last year in the home run Derby,

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Speaker 2: the distance at Globe Life, a climate controlled dome four

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Speaker 2: hundred and twenty five feet. Okay, so like not that impressive,

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Speaker 2: not a bunch of moon shots. So how many home runs?

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Speaker 2: I mean John Carlos Stitton hit hit one four hundred

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Speaker 2: and ninety six feet. Okay, So that's a decent amount.

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Speaker 2: That's you know, last year in terms of where we've

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Speaker 2: seen home runs in the past at these ballparks. At

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Speaker 2: Truest Park it is considered to be slightly hitter power,

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Speaker 2: hitter friendly, right center being the most you know, dynamic.

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Speaker 2: The average home run goes about four hundred feet at

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Speaker 2: Truest Park and it's just been tracking very similarly to

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Speaker 2: what it did last year. So the average or the

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Speaker 2: prop bet rather for the longest home run in the

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Speaker 2: home run derby is four hundred and seventy nine and

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Speaker 2: a half feet. So obviously, look, they juiced the balls

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Speaker 2: and everybody wants these things to fly. But again, Matt

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Speaker 2: Olsen not the strongest of guys, you know, Jazz Chisholm

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Speaker 2: not the strongest of guys. You know, James wood is

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Speaker 2: a young kid, but you know what it's he do

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Speaker 2: on the big stage. So instead, there's one guy who

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Speaker 2: has had serious power this year, and that's O'Neill Cruise.

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Speaker 2: O'Neill Cruz. On the twenty second of May off, Jordan

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Speaker 2: Wicks hit a home run that I'm not sure landed yet,

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Speaker 2: four hundred and seventy one feet exit vlow of one

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Speaker 2: hundred and eighteen miles per hour launch angle of twenty

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Speaker 2: five degrees.

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Speaker 1: He just blasted it. He's got raw power, he has.

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Speaker 2: One of the fastest bat speeds in all of Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball, and he's hit some of the hardest hit

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Speaker 2: balls in recent memory in Major League Baseball. O'Neil Cruz

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Speaker 2: his prop for the longest home run because if anyone's

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Speaker 2: gonna hit over four seventy nine and a half, I

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Speaker 2: think it's going to be O'Neill Cruz. So then rather

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Speaker 2: than going and betting over for seventy nine and a half,

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Speaker 2: why not bet over four seventy one and a half

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Speaker 2: Because that's what O'Neill Cruz is prop. Bet is said

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Speaker 2: at at DraftKings over four hundred and seventy one and

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Speaker 2: a half feet is minus one ten. Why bet anyone else?

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Speaker 2: I mean right now, he's got way more. I mean

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Speaker 2: the next closest guy is four sixty four and a

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Speaker 2: half for James Wood, Like that's you know, seven eight feet.

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Speaker 2: So you go from that, you know, from O'Neill Cruz

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Speaker 2: to any player's home run at four seventy nine and

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Speaker 2: a half over one twenty it's just to mass one twenty.

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Speaker 2: I know, I'm cutting myself down a little bit to

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Speaker 2: only like one hitter that I think really has the power.

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Speaker 1: To go deep.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think there's an enormous amount of hitters

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Speaker 2: that have the power to just jack a ball and

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Speaker 2: send it four hundred and eighty five feet or four

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Speaker 2: hundred and ninety feet. In particular, it's ninety two ninety

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Speaker 2: three degrees at you know, during during the day, a

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Speaker 2: little bit you know, upper eighties at night. The ball

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Speaker 2: might fly, but it's outdoors, so I mean, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: the ball may not fly as far with this door

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Speaker 2: ballpark versus indoor ballpark. So I'm going to take over

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Speaker 2: four hundred and seventy one and a half feet four

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Speaker 2: O'Neill cruise of the Pittsburgh Pirates again. He has hit

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Speaker 2: a shot. He hit a moon ball four and seventy

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Speaker 2: one feet this year in a game. This is just

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Speaker 2: him in batting practice. This is him, you know, swinging

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Speaker 2: as hard as he can try to hit the ball,

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Speaker 2: you know, to the moon, his exit velo, his swing speed,

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Speaker 2: him being a left handed power hitter, young needing the

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Speaker 2: publicity taking it seriously. ONeill cruise over four hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy one and a half feet at minus one ten.

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Speaker 2: Bet that to win a half a unit at point

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Speaker 2: five to five units, and I'm not done with O'Neill Cruz.

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Speaker 1: O'Neill Cruz to win this thing is plus three thirty.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take a flyer and go with O'Neill Cruiz

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Speaker 2: and to see if he can cut one up winning

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Speaker 2: this thing. I think he's got a decent shot to

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Speaker 2: win this thing. And I think when you start looking

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Speaker 2: at where he is income comparison to other players, other

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Speaker 2: guys going into this, I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: excitement for a young power hitting player on a bad

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Speaker 2: baseball team to get his moment in the sun. And

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Speaker 2: I think there's a real good shot that we see

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Speaker 2: him go deep into this format. Now, obviously there's a

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Speaker 2: lot to talk about here in terms of who you

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Speaker 2: match up with, and then you go to the you know,

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Speaker 2: you have your format, you have your home runs, and

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Speaker 2: you have your head to heads in the second round,

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Speaker 2: and so who comes out of what and how it

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Speaker 2: winds up going it's a crapshoot in a lot of ways.

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Speaker 2: I think the best way is just to go ahead

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Speaker 2: and take whoever you like and then just we'll go

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Speaker 2: ahead and fire on him and say, all right, you

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Speaker 2: know this is who we like. But I think O'Neill

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Speaker 2: Cruz has a really good shot at winning this. I've

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Speaker 2: seen a lot of people say that it's James Woods

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Speaker 2: or cal Raley to win this thing, but O'Neill Cruz,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure he's a dark horse pick. But his

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Speaker 2: swing has been criticized it's too big. But I just

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Speaker 2: think he's the guy that I think when it comes

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Speaker 2: to a home run derby perspective. He's young, he has

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Speaker 2: the stamina, he has the power, and I think he'll

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Speaker 2: be you know, really looking into this. You know, he

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Speaker 2: has the hardest hit ball on this deat cast Era,

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Speaker 2: So as long as he keeps his power in check,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't go crazy and get exhausted and tire himself out.

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Speaker 2: I think O'Neill Cruz has got a good opportunity, a

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Speaker 2: good chance to win this thing. I'll take the plus

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Speaker 2: three thirty flyer with ONeill Cruz to win the home

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Speaker 2: run derby here coming up tonight, So O'Neill Cruz longest

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Speaker 2: home run over four hundred and seventy one feet and

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Speaker 2: on nail Cruz to win the home run derby at

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Speaker 2: plus three thirty. Both those bets at a half a

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Speaker 2: unit er point five to five units, so just one

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Speaker 2: unit in play here for the home run derby. All right,

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Speaker 2: one more play for us when it comes to what

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Speaker 2: will happen for the World Series building this portfolio, if

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Speaker 2: you will, Let's talk about the Milwaukee Brewers. They have

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Speaker 2: been hot. They've won seven in a row. They've been

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Speaker 2: rolling on the plate. They swept the Dodgers, they swept

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Speaker 2: the Nationals, dominated them eight to one yesterday, domination. They

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Speaker 2: have pitched extremely well. Jacob Misarowski is the story rookie phenom,

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Speaker 2: guy who just got added to the All Star team,

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Speaker 2: pissed off the Phillies to no end that he is there.

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Speaker 2: In his first five big league appearances, he has a

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Speaker 2: two point eight one ERA, a point nine whip, thirty

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Speaker 2: three k's in twenty five innings, twelve k's against the Dodgers,

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Speaker 2: one hundred and two point five mile parar pitches. He's

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Speaker 2: going to be awesome in the second half, but he's

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Speaker 2: not the most important piece for the Brewers in the

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Speaker 2: second half. That's Brandon Woodruff him coming back for the

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Speaker 2: first time in almost two years. Is gigantic. He's looked

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Speaker 2: good in his return, and he adds depth in a

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Speaker 2: much needed veteran present. Freddie Peralta pitched yesterday. He's an

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Speaker 2: All Star. He won't pitch in the All Star Game,

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Speaker 2: but he was great yesterday. Tremendous, consistent the team. When

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Speaker 2: he pitches, they just win, like they just when Freddie

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Speaker 2: Peralta's on the mound for the Brewers, they win. And

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Speaker 2: he's the type of guy that you look at his

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Speaker 2: numbers and you go, okay, he could start a playoff game.

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Speaker 2: He could be your number one starter in a playoff game.

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Speaker 2: He was great yesterday for the Brewers. Six and two thirds,

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Speaker 2: one earned run, seven k's, one hundred and three pitches,

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Speaker 2: sixty three of them thrown for strikes for Freddy Peralta.

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Speaker 2: And we talked about it, you know, on the podcast

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Speaker 2: earlier today last night. The team now has won six

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Speaker 2: games in a row, started by Freddy Peralta. I mean

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Speaker 2: they are rolling with him on there. I like their

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Speaker 2: pitching staff a lot. Additionally, I really like what they've

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Speaker 2: done offensively. Andrew Vaughan has been a nice addition to

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Speaker 2: this lineup. Okay, while they don't have any great superstars

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Speaker 2: on offense, they are pitching really well. They're hitting, they're

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Speaker 2: getting timely hits. And again this is more about the path.

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Speaker 2: We don't know the path. But at twenty seven to

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Speaker 2: one for the Brewers, are they going to make the playoffs?

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Speaker 2: I think it's hard to say they're not going to

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Speaker 2: make the playoffs when look at the wild card standings

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Speaker 2: right now. They lead the first wild card by four

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Speaker 2: games over the Mets, and they lead it by four

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Speaker 2: games or sorry two yeah, four games over the No.

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Speaker 2: Two games in a lost column over the Mets, four

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Speaker 2: games over the Padres, and four and a half games

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Speaker 2: over the Giants.

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Speaker 1: So in terms of like, are they going to make

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Speaker 1: the playoffs?

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Speaker 2: Most likely? Yes, fifty six and forty. Could they win

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Speaker 2: their division? Absolutely?

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Speaker 1: Why?

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Speaker 2: Because the Cubs are good? But the Cubs aren't running

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Speaker 2: away with it. The Cubs are fifty seven and thirty nine.

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Speaker 2: They're up bay a game here at the break. They

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Speaker 2: have a plus one nineteen Rundown pferential, but the Brewers

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Speaker 2: are right behind them right now with eighty one. The

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Speaker 2: Brewers have scored five sorry, four hundred and fifty seven runs. Now,

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Speaker 2: the Cubs have scored five to twelve, but the Cubs

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Speaker 2: have given up three ninety three. Brewers have been giving

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Speaker 2: up three to seventy six. Road record five hundred thirty

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Speaker 2: three and seventeen. The Brewers have a better home record

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Speaker 2: than the Cubs at thirty and sixteen, twenty seven and

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Speaker 2: twenty three. That's why the Cubs have a one game lead.

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Speaker 2: How will the Cubs play on the road.

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Speaker 1: We'll see.

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Speaker 2: Cubs are good, healthy in Minaga's back to the Cubs.

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Speaker 2: That's gigantic. PCA's had a tremendous, tremendous first half. But

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Speaker 2: does he keep it rolling the way he's been playing.

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Speaker 2: I like the Brewers a lot. I like their pitching staff.

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Speaker 2: I think they are going to be in line to

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Speaker 2: make a move at the trade deadline. Quintana's been really good.

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Speaker 2: Priester has been tremendous. I mean, you have the rookie,

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Speaker 2: obviously everybody wants to talk about. But Peralta Woodruff, Quintana, Priester,

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Speaker 2: and I miserawski okay. I mean the arms for the

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Speaker 2: Brewers are legit like that is a team to pay

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Speaker 2: attention to. And at twenty seven to one at the break.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a great time to grab one unit.

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Speaker 2: And remember I do bet more than this personally than

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Speaker 2: one unit. You can bet whatever you feel comfortable with.

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Speaker 2: But I think the Brewers are one hundred percent of

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Speaker 2: a team that you have a piece of here. Given

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Speaker 2: the way they're pitching and what they just did to

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Speaker 2: the Dodgers, what they're done in the Cubs, whether they

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Speaker 2: did the Nationals, this is a team to pay attention to.

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Speaker 2: I like Milwaukee a lot. We're gonna grab the Brewers

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Speaker 2: to win the World Series. And again, all we need

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Speaker 2: them to do is make the National League Championship Series.

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Speaker 2: That's what we're gunning for with Houston, make the American

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Speaker 2: League Championship Series or make the World Series. The Brewers

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Speaker 2: to win the World Series, we're gonna play off of that.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna use that bet one unit to win twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: Got a good chance here on that Brewers plus twenty

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Speaker 2: seven hundred here twenty seven to one for one unit

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Speaker 2: to win the World Series. Those are our plays here

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Speaker 2: on a Monday, let's have some fun with the derby

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Speaker 2: and then look at the All Star Game tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perote.

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Speaker 2: You guys can following me acause all my socials at

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Speaker 2: Sports Doc Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice