Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: Global News. We will win this and as far as
Speaker 1: I'm concerned, already, we believe we're on track to win
Speaker 1: this election. And of course that was President Trump and
Speaker 1: President Vice President Biden last night. I do want to
Speaker 1: mention a headline crossing the Bloomberg Joe Biden winning the
Speaker 1: state of Wisconsin. That is coming from the Associated Press.
Speaker 1: As we know, there were still a few races that
Speaker 1: are yet to be called, but again the Associated Press
Speaker 1: just calling Wisconsin the state of Wisconsin for Vice President
Speaker 1: and Joe Biden. Well, it is the day after the election.
Speaker 1: We still don't have a winner for the White House. Uh,
Speaker 1: And instead we've got a date that we are hearing
Speaker 1: NonStop from state officials and governors who are continuing to
Speaker 1: count the vote. Great to get back to someone who
Speaker 1: has been one of our go to voices throughout the
Speaker 1: election season. Bloomberg contributor Rick Davis, former Republican strategist, former
Speaker 1: manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, and partner at
Speaker 1: Stone Court Capital. He is back with us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Virginia. How late were you up. Oh, well,
Speaker 1: it's not so much of being late. I think I
Speaker 1: was up early. I left Bloomberg headquarters in Washington last
Speaker 1: night at about four thirty in the morning. Uh. It's
Speaker 1: it's unbelievable. And we just had the AP calling Wisconsin
Speaker 1: for Biden. Um. You know, it's interesting. We've gone from
Speaker 1: listening NonStop to state COVID updates to NonStop state updates
Speaker 1: on the vote. Is there still a path to victory, Rick,
Speaker 1: in your view to two seventy votes for both Joe
Speaker 1: Biden and Donald Trump. Yes, Uh, certainly both men have
Speaker 1: an opportunity to win. The pathway for Joe Biden is
Speaker 1: much more direct. Is simply put. He's currently at about
Speaker 1: two d and thirty seven electoral votes with including um
Speaker 1: UM Minnesota's Wisconsin, as you mentioned, is just broke uh
Speaker 1: and and really just to get to to seventy. Uh.
Speaker 1: To give you an idea is he's he's winning right
Speaker 1: now in both Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, and that gives
Speaker 1: him to seventy. So it's a three states step. Uh.
Speaker 1: The most direct rap that Joe Biden's got in order
Speaker 1: for Donald Trump to win, He's really almost got to
Speaker 1: shoot the moon. He's he's a two hundred and thirteen
Speaker 1: electoral votes right now, and he not only has to
Speaker 1: try to hold those states that we just discussed, but
Speaker 1: then pick up Pennsylvania and UH that is a dead
Speaker 1: heat as as we talk so UM right now, I
Speaker 1: would say the most likely winner of this election is
Speaker 1: Biden based on where the current counts stand day. Uh.
Speaker 1: As Donald Trump said last night, stopped counting. If they
Speaker 1: stopped counting now, he loses. So I'm not sure that
Speaker 1: strategy was a particularly good one. Well, that's interesting, so
Speaker 1: let's get into it. What what you know? We've already
Speaker 1: seen cases filed even before election day. We continue to
Speaker 1: see them. We just mentioned one about the count in Uh,
Speaker 1: Michigan specifically, I mean, what are your expectations about how
Speaker 1: that ultimately plays out and kind of delays us uh
Speaker 1: deeming a winner at this point. Rick, Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: it's mostly a delay, not so much a change. Each
Speaker 1: of these states have their own rules associated with recounts,
Speaker 1: and that's what we're really talking about here. The states
Speaker 1: will finish up their business accounting these votes, uh, sometime
Speaker 1: in the next day or two, and that's what we anticipated.
Speaker 1: There was a record amount of early votes. Many of
Speaker 1: these states, like Pennsylvania don't even start counting them until
Speaker 1: after the election day votes are counted, and and and
Speaker 1: and as a historic turnout, and so all those things
Speaker 1: combine added time of this election count after the counts
Speaker 1: are certified within ten days or after ten days, depending
Speaker 1: upon which state you're in. The the loser has a
Speaker 1: chance if he's within either a half a point in
Speaker 1: some states or one point to contest and um do
Speaker 1: a recount. Uh. It's it's the loser's request. And so
Speaker 1: in some cases, the president may want to request a
Speaker 1: recount if he's within that half a point margin of air. Okay,
Speaker 1: So that's how it could play out legally. I mean,
Speaker 1: is this a case where you anticipate that this goes
Speaker 1: all the way to the Supreme Court. Are there any
Speaker 1: similarities to two thousand? Well, on a parallel track, there
Speaker 1: is talk on the president's part last night about taking
Speaker 1: it to Supreme Court. That is different than asking for
Speaker 1: a recount. And if he takes to the Supreme Court,
Speaker 1: it's likely to be the same case that they took
Speaker 1: last week that the Court didn't hear, and that was
Speaker 1: whether or not to invalidate ballots that arrive after election day.
Speaker 1: In many of these states, they have rules like in
Speaker 1: North Carolina in Pennsylvania that if you mail your ballot
Speaker 1: by election day and it comes afterwards, it's still a
Speaker 1: good ballot. And the President has always had the approach
Speaker 1: that if a ballot shows up after election day, it
Speaker 1: should be invalidated. And so that is a case where
Speaker 1: they've taken it to the Supreme Court once. It's likely
Speaker 1: that's what he was talking about last night. It's likely
Speaker 1: that they'll take that again to the Supreme Court, and
Speaker 1: we'll see what the Supreme Court says. The fact that
Speaker 1: they didn't hear it uh is not necessarily indication that
Speaker 1: they'll throw it out. What makes it a Supreme Court
Speaker 1: issue versus. And we're going to talk about the legal
Speaker 1: aspect in a little bit, but let me just put
Speaker 1: it to you also because you understand this world. I mean,
Speaker 1: what would make it a Supreme Court case versus this
Speaker 1: is the state's right to determine how they handle the
Speaker 1: election ballots. That's right, and and and the states do
Speaker 1: have different requirements in every single state, there's some difference
Speaker 1: in how elections are adjudicated. In this case, it's about
Speaker 1: invalidating a bona fide ballot in the in the federal
Speaker 1: government does protect the rights of voters, but it also
Speaker 1: does not see the rights of voters to go beyond
Speaker 1: state law. And in some of these cases, state law
Speaker 1: is a little ambiguous as to what it says about
Speaker 1: voting on an election day and then allowing ballost to
Speaker 1: come in after the fact. These are usually laws that
Speaker 1: were on the books before there was early voting or
Speaker 1: before absentee ballots were so popular and so the voting
Speaker 1: was done on election day and that and there really
Speaker 1: was never posed a problem, you know, Rick, I do
Speaker 1: wonder based on the outcome and the states that were
Speaker 1: one of the close races that were out there can
Speaker 1: you determine maybe what strategies worked for each of the candidates,
Speaker 1: what mattered among voters, whether it was COVID or the economy.
Speaker 1: What can you tell about kind of the specifics of
Speaker 1: strategy and kind of what mattered to voters. Well, I
Speaker 1: think both of the campaigns were successful at expanding the
Speaker 1: voter pool. In other words, it'll one of the largest
Speaker 1: turnouts in modern political history, and so both campaigns should
Speaker 1: be congratulated for finding new voters who otherwise have not
Speaker 1: been participating. There were voters turning out in millions who
Speaker 1: had not voted in the last probably uh ten to
Speaker 1: fifteen years in presidential election, So so getting those to
Speaker 1: the polls was a great accomplishment for both parties. Donald
Speaker 1: Trump was successful, especially in places like UH Florida, finding
Speaker 1: votes that he otherwise hadn't been getting in the past.
Speaker 1: That includes a larger percentage of UH people of color
Speaker 1: UH in in Dade County. That would include Cuban Americans
Speaker 1: who were susceptible to the UH charges of calling Joe
Speaker 1: Biden a socialist, and also penetrating the African American community
Speaker 1: in certain parts of the state UH and and even
Speaker 1: penetrating a little bit the suburbs, which you would not
Speaker 1: have thought he was going to get that vote back
Speaker 1: after the various approaches he took to uh you know,
Speaker 1: sort of his law and order approach. I would say
Speaker 1: Joe Biden really got much better at rebuilding the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party base. If you'll notice the states that he's winning
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump took were traditionally Democratic states. Where he's
Speaker 1: ahead in places like UM, Wisconsin and uh Minnesota and Michigan. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, these are states that the Democrats used to
Speaker 1: be able to rely heavily on. That that Hillary Clinton
Speaker 1: lost to Donald Trump. And so he did a much
Speaker 1: better job of organizing the Democratic Party and and keeping
Speaker 1: it together even though he's running as a centrist and
Speaker 1: the energy and activists in the party tend to be
Speaker 1: toured on the liberal side. But he managed that well.
Speaker 1: So so both had talent, uh and in a closely
Speaker 1: contested election, what we really learned is just how divided
Speaker 1: the politics in America is today. Yeah, Uh, that is
Speaker 1: for certain. I feel like if there's anything that we
Speaker 1: can kind of take away from that, um, from this election.
Speaker 1: What I do wonder too, is how does it shape
Speaker 1: what happens in especially when you look at a Biden
Speaker 1: win in Arizona, you know, watching some of the close
Speaker 1: races in the South. I mean, is the South now
Speaker 1: historically has been Republican. Now at play, Carol, You're you're
Speaker 1: exactly right. I mean it's worth noting that Florida is
Speaker 1: a split right, anybody could win that state, Republican or Democrat.
Speaker 1: Georgia is now on the map as a swing state. Arizona,
Speaker 1: which hasn't voted but once in the last thirty years
Speaker 1: for a Democratic president uh, has now got two Democratic
Speaker 1: senators elected statewide over the last four years. Uh and Uh,
Speaker 1: and and and and So I think that you're right.
Speaker 1: I think there is a new game in town, which
Speaker 1: is how do you cobble together these especially communities like
Speaker 1: Atlanta and in South Florida and Miracle County in Arizona,
Speaker 1: Phoenix that are just fast growth, heavy new populations coming
Speaker 1: into the state that sometimes reflect a different set of politics.
Speaker 1: And the Democrats, I think, have done a better job
Speaker 1: of attracting those voters right now than the Republicans have. Hey,
Speaker 1: really quickly forty five seconds polling full me once for
Speaker 1: me twice. Um, what do we have to do to
Speaker 1: get it right, and is it that we just don't
Speaker 1: understand essentially the Trump voter. And just quickly, when you
Speaker 1: look at the election, it was an incredibly stable election.
Speaker 1: I mean the polling for the last sixty days has
Speaker 1: basically been, you know, Biden by little Trump, you know,
Speaker 1: coming from behind. There have been polls that have shown
Speaker 1: double digit leads by Joe Biden going into the election,
Speaker 1: but most of them were single digits in these states.
Speaker 1: And that's what we got. Very close races in all
Speaker 1: the key states. So uh, there'll be a lot of
Speaker 1: internal looking at how these things were done. But when
Speaker 1: you have a historic turnout of over a hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty million people, most of the models are going to
Speaker 1: be wrong. What a what a what a week? What
Speaker 1: a year? It's not over hey, Rick, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Always look forward to our conversations and your inside Bloomberg
Speaker 1: contributor Rick Davis. He is former Republican strategists, as I
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, former manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign,
Speaker 1: and he's a partner at Stone Court Capital. He's been
Speaker 1: great coming on our air to talk about this campaign,
Speaker 1: in this election. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol
Speaker 1: Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, listen, We've read and followed
Speaker 1: his reporting so closely. He's gone through all the different
Speaker 1: types of voters that would determine the outcome of election.
Speaker 1: Back with us and so delighted to have with him.
Speaker 1: Josh Green, he's national correspondent Bloomberg business Week, author of
Speaker 1: Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Nationalist Uprising.
Speaker 1: Josh joins us on the phone from d C. Also
Speaker 1: with us, delighted as well, Bloomberg business Week editor Joe Webber.
Speaker 1: He's on the access line in Brooklyn. But I feel like,
Speaker 1: you know, Joel, we have been talking with Josh, whether
Speaker 1: it was you know, key female voters, shy Trumper's Floridians
Speaker 1: with past felony convictions, We've been covering it all with Josh.
Speaker 1: You forgot about one of my favorites, which was Maricopa County,
Speaker 1: and that's actually kind of where I want to start
Speaker 1: with them. Uh, And we've got plenty more Josh Green
Speaker 1: coming as well, and you hope to talk to him
Speaker 1: again tomorrow. But but Josh, let's start with that. I mean,
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year in pre pandemic Times,
Speaker 1: the before times. I'm sure you remember them as finally
Speaker 1: as I do. We were talking about what our election
Speaker 1: year strategy was gonna be, and you were like, you know,
Speaker 1: it's not about the cities, it's not about the rural area.
Speaker 1: It's about the suburbs. And you pointed to Americapa County,
Speaker 1: which you ended up writing about in the election issue,
Speaker 1: which was over the summer, and I'm wondering how you
Speaker 1: feel about that story. Now, Well, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: say this about all my work, but that one was
Speaker 1: was prescient and it it sure looks like it it
Speaker 1: holds up because you know, Joe Biden, the Democrats are
Speaker 1: winning uh Arizona at least according to a pH and
Speaker 1: Fox News, and uh, you know they did it because
Speaker 1: they really carried Maricopa County was strong numbers. Now I
Speaker 1: should probably say that Trump folks had not conceded Arizona.
Speaker 1: I still think they have a path to victory, and
Speaker 1: given the level of polling error, I wouldn't rule anything out.
Speaker 1: But if you step back and look at the bigger picture, clearly,
Speaker 1: what we saw in Maricopa is what we saw in
Speaker 1: suburbs all across the country, which is we we we've
Speaker 1: seen a red to blue transition under Trump. UM. I
Speaker 1: do think it's worth saying, though, that part of the
Speaker 1: story of the suburbs is what we expected to happen
Speaker 1: there last night, uh didn't happen quite the way uh
Speaker 1: that the most analysts were predicting, and that was just
Speaker 1: a massive wave that would sweep away Republican congressmen and
Speaker 1: smaller uh you know, red leaning suburbs like some in
Speaker 1: Texas and Missouri, New Mexico, places like that. Um, what
Speaker 1: we actually saw was was the blue wave from a
Speaker 1: team begin to ebb and kind of come back a
Speaker 1: little bit in the other direction. But uh, you know, net, net,
Speaker 1: the suburbs have moved in a way that they're going
Speaker 1: to be responsible for Joe Biden's victory if he wins,
Speaker 1: and right now it looks like he's winning. So let's
Speaker 1: talk about suburbs elsewhere other than you know, the Maricopa one, which,
Speaker 1: by the way, I was watching uh Fox News last
Speaker 1: night when Fox called it for Arizona, and the amount
Speaker 1: of just on air uh tension that it was like palpable.
Speaker 1: I mean, it was just like NonStop for the next
Speaker 1: several hours. Actually, you could tell the president was just
Speaker 1: calling people. But you know, one of the thesis there
Speaker 1: was like, what happens in Maricopa County and this is
Speaker 1: in your story what happens in Maricopa County basically translate
Speaker 1: to suburbs at writ large across the country. Did that
Speaker 1: part hold up? Um? You know it did. It didn't
Speaker 1: go as far as a lot of people were expecting me. Basically,
Speaker 1: the story of the suburbs, and this even for Dates Trump,
Speaker 1: is that they've moved from white collar, college educated publican
Speaker 1: voting Republican voting uh people, to you know, much more
Speaker 1: um multicultural group who increasingly have been voting Democrats. And
Speaker 1: we that that process has been going on for a
Speaker 1: while now. Part of it is that uh, you know
Speaker 1: is that wrote in Business Week the suburbs are becoming
Speaker 1: more racially and ethnically diverse. But a big part of
Speaker 1: it under Trump is the attitudes of college educated white
Speaker 1: voters are just changing. And that process really sped up
Speaker 1: under Donald Trump, and it certainly hasn't gone away. Um.
Speaker 1: I think what was interesting that that we saw last
Speaker 1: night was that there appear to be limits to it.
Speaker 1: And one of the big questions I had going in
Speaker 1: was uh, you know, in ten, a lot of Republican
Speaker 1: strategists said, you know, we may not be in that
Speaker 1: bad shape because, you know, even though you know we
Speaker 1: we lost, we're gonna have Trump on the ballot in
Speaker 1: We didn't have that in ten, and we think a
Speaker 1: lot of our voters will come out to support Trump.
Speaker 1: And Democrats universally did not believe that. Well, it turned
Speaker 1: out that people really are um, you know, driven to
Speaker 1: the polls by Trump on the one hand, and also
Speaker 1: willing to split their tickets. So what we saw in
Speaker 1: some of these red leaning suburbs was that uh, college
Speaker 1: educated voters were voting against Trump but still willing to
Speaker 1: vote for their Republican member of Congress, which I think
Speaker 1: is interesting and one reason that Democrats didn't win back
Speaker 1: the Senate and are gonna have a much smaller and
Speaker 1: larger than the House. You know, it's really interesting. I
Speaker 1: just spoke just before you guys, spoke with Rick Davis,
Speaker 1: a he ran um as manager of Senator John McCain's
Speaker 1: presidential campaign, and he thought it was interesting and he
Speaker 1: thought that now the South is essentially in play based
Speaker 1: on kind of what happened in Arizona. You know, you
Speaker 1: brought up that point that it's going to be different.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, like already thinking about how the outcomes here
Speaker 1: impacted what's to come and and and also just kind
Speaker 1: of commended both candidates and that they found new voters,
Speaker 1: people who had vote it for years. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: that's right. I mean, you know, one of the stories
Speaker 1: of Republican success and Trump's success to the extent that
Speaker 1: you know he's not gonna lose this this race by
Speaker 1: ten points away a lot of polsters were predicting, was
Speaker 1: he did manage to turn out a lot of voters
Speaker 1: who hadn't supported him in sixteen. Some of those are
Speaker 1: white working class voters. They might be shy, shy Trumpers
Speaker 1: who don't want to talk to pollsters, or it may
Speaker 1: just be that pollsters couldn't couldn't find them to interview them.
Speaker 1: You know. Part of the other story is Trump's increased
Speaker 1: margins among Latinos, especially the Latino men. That was hugely
Speaker 1: costly the Democrats in in Florida, all across uh southern
Speaker 1: part of Texas where Democrats were hoping to win back
Speaker 1: Republicans and didn't um so, so he certainly brought in
Speaker 1: new voters but you know, Biden, on the other hand,
Speaker 1: if he wins, it's going to be because he won
Speaker 1: back a chunk of that blue collar vote in the
Speaker 1: Upper Midwest that heally lost, and right now that looks
Speaker 1: like his path of victory. Josh, can we come up
Speaker 1: to speed with where things currently stay in Wisconsin? Was
Speaker 1: recently just a couple of minutes ago called by seeing
Speaker 1: in an ap for for Biden, Uh, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia,
Speaker 1: all all sort of the ones that everyone is watching,
Speaker 1: and we'll basically determine the outcome. What are what are
Speaker 1: you most interested in? How in all of this? Having
Speaker 1: having talked to people in both camps just in the
Speaker 1: last couple of hours, the Biden people feel very confident
Speaker 1: that they have two hundred and seventy electoral votes that
Speaker 1: they're going to carry filled uh Pennsylvania, UM, although that
Speaker 1: may take quite a while, that will ultimately prevail in Nevada,
Speaker 1: and that Biden will be the next president. They've been
Speaker 1: saying that since this morning. The Trump people, on the
Speaker 1: other hand, though, have a really interesting path if they
Speaker 1: claim is still open for them, uh, that is that
Speaker 1: Trump will win Arizona despite the fact that the AP
Speaker 1: has already called it for Joe Biden. Um, that they
Speaker 1: will add in Pennsylvania, which they feel fairly confident that
Speaker 1: they can win, and that they will hold on in
Speaker 1: Georgia where it looks like they're going to run away
Speaker 1: with it, and now things have gotten much closer. That
Speaker 1: would bring them up to two and seventy four electoral
Speaker 1: votes and it would give Trump a second term. So
Speaker 1: a lot to watch, um, you know, both in the
Speaker 1: electoral college and in the courts over the next couple
Speaker 1: of days. Well exactly, And you know, you talked about Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: We've just got a headline you know too, and a
Speaker 1: story that they're getting ready for a Trump recount request.
Speaker 1: We know he's already fought the lawsuit in Michigan to
Speaker 1: kind of stop counting votes. So I mean, this just
Speaker 1: continues to drag on, at least for a little bit longer. Josh, definitely. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's no question about that that things are going to
Speaker 1: move to the courts now. I mean, this is this
Speaker 1: is you know, not quite the worst case scenario everybody
Speaker 1: envisioned heading into the election, but it's not that far
Speaker 1: off from it either. And you have Trump having come
Speaker 1: out last night and essentially declared victory and fraud. Um,
Speaker 1: you have things close enough that these court battles really
Speaker 1: couldn't matter. UM. So you know people have been saying
Speaker 1: from the get go, we may not know on election night. UM,
Speaker 1: that's definitely true. I think the hope is that we
Speaker 1: know in the next couple of days are certainly by
Speaker 1: this weekend, but no guarantee on that either. And Josh,
Speaker 1: any other final thoughts for you of of uh anything
Speaker 1: else that's jumped out to you. I think what's jumped
Speaker 1: out to me is just what a terrible job posters
Speaker 1: and analysts in general did and calling this race. Even
Speaker 1: if Biden wins, it's going to be narrow. It isn't
Speaker 1: a blue wave. Democrats didn't win by crushing margins in
Speaker 1: the House. And we can see it consistently that UH,
Speaker 1: polls were off not just by one or two or
Speaker 1: three points, but by seven or eight or nine points
Speaker 1: the states right after they were off in and and
Speaker 1: the necessary injustice were thought to have been made, well,
Speaker 1: there there are still some knobs that need to be
Speaker 1: fiddled here for these things to get accurate. UH. To me,
Speaker 1: understanding how that all went wrong is one of the
Speaker 1: stories I'm gonna be watching. I gotta say, um, David
Speaker 1: Weston caught up with Frank Letts, who does polling as
Speaker 1: you know, big time, and he said, we've got to
Speaker 1: figure out how to understand the Trump voter essentially, and
Speaker 1: just said that a lot of times you've got Trump
Speaker 1: ooters and supporters who don't want to answer questions to
Speaker 1: posters because they don't like the media outlets that they
Speaker 1: represent or what have you, and then it tends to
Speaker 1: stew it. But we've got to be smarter about getting
Speaker 1: that voter. I don't know what you think about that, Josh.
Speaker 1: I think that may be an element of it. But
Speaker 1: I also think that part of the problem is that
Speaker 1: polsters just aren't managing to find the Trump voters to
Speaker 1: talk to. You know, whether I don't know that it's
Speaker 1: a voter is saying, you know, I hate you, I
Speaker 1: don't trust you, I'm not going to give you honest answers.
Speaker 1: I just think the polsters have made a lot of
Speaker 1: flawed assumptions, and the fact is their jobs have gotten
Speaker 1: much more challenging. People don't answer their telephone land life anymore.
Speaker 1: They have resorted to paying people to take online polls. Um.
Speaker 1: You know is one Trump person I was talking to
Speaker 1: earlier today said, you know, the idea that that is
Speaker 1: going to lead to a precise, pinpoint forecast of how
Speaker 1: an election gonna turn it is going to turn out
Speaker 1: is just insane. And I think the results already that
Speaker 1: there's something to that. Well, I'm waiting for your next book.
Speaker 1: I'm just thinking, Josh, this has been a great year, um,
Speaker 1: in terms of an interesting year to write about, that's
Speaker 1: for sure. Bloomberg's, of course, Josh Green joining us from
Speaker 1: d C. He's our national correspondent at Bloomberg Business Week,
Speaker 1: and of course our thanks to Bloomberg Business Week editor
Speaker 1: Joe Webber joining us on the access line in Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: So we'll be going to the U. S. Supreme Court.
Speaker 1: We want all voting to stop. We don't want them
Speaker 1: to find any ballots at four o'clock in the morning
Speaker 1: and add them to the list. Okay, all right. Of course,
Speaker 1: that was President Donald Trump saying last night, or actually
Speaker 1: it was kind of the wee hours of this morning, uh,
Speaker 1: saying he will go to the U. S. Supreme Court
Speaker 1: because he wants all voting to stop as he tries
Speaker 1: to kind of hold on to some of his early
Speaker 1: leads and key battleground states. Of course, this election continuing
Speaker 1: to evolve. Um, this Election Day Wednesday, again, it feels like, Um,
Speaker 1: I gotta say, I saw live last night when the
Speaker 1: President made those comments. Let's get into what is legally
Speaker 1: at stake and what can legally be done, because there's
Speaker 1: kind of two different things the Supreme Supreme Court issue
Speaker 1: versus kind of some of the lawsuits that we're already
Speaker 1: seeing begin to happen. Jim Grass was legal analyst, co
Speaker 1: host of politics. Uh. Actually, yeah, Bloomberg Bloomberg Law. Sorry,
Speaker 1: I kind of forgot the name of me on the
Speaker 1: phone in New York City, Greg Store, who is Supreme
Speaker 1: Court reporter for Bloomberg News. Greg is on the phone
Speaker 1: in d C. So good to have you both here
Speaker 1: with us. Um, Greg, let me just start for you.
Speaker 1: Let me just kind of big picture because I think
Speaker 1: we see Supreme Court. Are we headed to the Supreme
Speaker 1: Court here that we are? They're all, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: we all think back to two thousand Bush versus Score.
Speaker 1: That was really a perfect storm where you had one
Speaker 1: state that made the difference. That state was had a
Speaker 1: difference of five and thirty. Um, we're not there yet
Speaker 1: in this case. Um, it's certainly possible there will be
Speaker 1: some legal fighting. But you know, Donald Trump, if he's
Speaker 1: going to challenge the results, have to get a legal
Speaker 1: issue that that raised the problem either on the under
Speaker 1: federal statute feral or the Constitution. And that has to
Speaker 1: be a legal issue that would make a difference that
Speaker 1: would actually swing the election in his direction. Um, and
Speaker 1: it's not clear we have that yet. All right, June,
Speaker 1: come on in on this. You must have been like, okay,
Speaker 1: Like where do I begin? So what are some of
Speaker 1: the illegal issues? There's a lot going on because as
Speaker 1: soon as you know, we've seen the cases kind of
Speaker 1: going into the election, and we continue to see them
Speaker 1: come from uh, certainly right at this point the Trump campaign. Right,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of legal issues. But I agree
Speaker 1: completely with Greg that it doesn't look like right now
Speaker 1: that you have a legal issue in a state and
Speaker 1: it has to be a state that's going to be
Speaker 1: a tipping point in the electoral college and is decided
Speaker 1: by a razor thin margin, and you're litigating over this
Speaker 1: pool of contested votes that would change the result and
Speaker 1: chip the election. So so far you have, for example,
Speaker 1: just this afternoon, the Trump campaign said that it's suing
Speaker 1: to stop Michigan from counting any more votes. Now, the
Speaker 1: problem with this is that what they're saying is that
Speaker 1: they weren't getting access to the counting enough access, and
Speaker 1: they weren't getting and they've used this in other states
Speaker 1: before and it hasn't worked. So and the other problem
Speaker 1: is that Michigan has said that they're likely to finish
Speaker 1: counting most of the votes by tonight. So will ad
Speaker 1: judge intervened at this point to stop the Michigan count
Speaker 1: very unlikely. In Pennsylvania, you have the case that you
Speaker 1: know we've talked about before where the Supreme Court said
Speaker 1: that Pennsylvania at this point could count the ballots that
Speaker 1: come in three days after the election. So those ballots
Speaker 1: are being segregated and as Greg can tell you better,
Speaker 1: but you know, the forced Conservative Justice is indicated they
Speaker 1: might be open after the election to looking at that.
Speaker 1: There's also in Pennsylvania another another lawsuit about a county
Speaker 1: that it's one county and it probably involves around forty
Speaker 1: nine votes. According to the county of officials and whether
Speaker 1: or not they were they were reaching out to voters
Speaker 1: who had problems with their ballots and saying, you want
Speaker 1: to come in and fix it basically, But is that
Speaker 1: enough to you know, to merit any kind of you know, litigation.
Speaker 1: So it all depends. And I think that they're also
Speaker 1: going to go after absentee ballots and provisional ballots. The
Speaker 1: provisional ballot is when you come in and maybe you're
Speaker 1: in the wrong the wrong uh election place, or maybe
Speaker 1: someone challenges you and then so those are questions. But
Speaker 1: how many provisional ballots and absentee ballots are having problems?
Speaker 1: That's the that's the point, right And and it gets
Speaker 1: too greg I think to what you were talking about,
Speaker 1: how close a race is, you know, whether it's going
Speaker 1: to be a state that would be a tipping point,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean there's a lot that goes into
Speaker 1: it before it makes sense on a legal level. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And one distinction to make you mention that Pennsylvania case
Speaker 1: that's at the Substreme Court. That case, if it were
Speaker 1: to happen, would be about ballots that were cast before
Speaker 1: election day, were by election day and didn't arrive I've
Speaker 1: until up to three days later. You don't know how
Speaker 1: many ballots that is. You know, maybe it's in the
Speaker 1: tens of thousands. I'm that's just conjecture. Um. What you
Speaker 1: heard the president's last night, he was talking about stopping
Speaker 1: the voting, um, And that's something very different. There's no
Speaker 1: legal claim to stop. Well, first of all, we were
Speaker 1: we weren't voting. Yeah, nobody is voting anymore. Um. And
Speaker 1: you know he wouldn't even be able to stop there's
Speaker 1: really no legal claim to stop the counting of votes
Speaker 1: that were clearly cast in time. We're only talking about,
Speaker 1: in the Supreme Court case, a relatively small segment of
Speaker 1: votes that were cast on time but haven't arrived yet. Also, Carol,
Speaker 1: I think it's a difference when you're challenging votes that
Speaker 1: have been cast by voters who have relied on the
Speaker 1: rules in place. So if that goes to the Supreme Court,
Speaker 1: let's just say it goes to the Supreme Court, is
Speaker 1: the court going to say, no, we're going to discount
Speaker 1: your votes, voters, even though you know we know what
Speaker 1: the outcome would be if those votes were counted, and
Speaker 1: we know you relied upon the rule that we set
Speaker 1: in place. So I think that's another point that has
Speaker 1: to be considered. And also, for example, in the Pennsylvania case,
Speaker 1: where they're challenging the way that they're they're asking people
Speaker 1: to come in and sort of cure their ballots, Well,
Speaker 1: why didn't they do that before? Have they waited too
Speaker 1: long to do that? Apparently they've been doing that for
Speaker 1: a long time there. So I think there's a lot
Speaker 1: There might be a lot of litigation, but I'm not
Speaker 1: sure that any of it is going to be sort
Speaker 1: of serious litigation. Yeah, I think it's really pretty interesting.
Speaker 1: I mean, I do wonder, Greg, you know, at some
Speaker 1: point do we need to kind of take a bigger
Speaker 1: deeper dive, you know, into kind of the voting system
Speaker 1: and how it works. I know it's up to individual states,
Speaker 1: but you do wonder we were talking earlier about it
Speaker 1: could be so much easier with an app and we
Speaker 1: could just do it and kind of clear up some
Speaker 1: of the confusion. Just got about forty seconds left. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's gotta be something that everybody can agree on after
Speaker 1: after yesterday and today, um that our system of voting
Speaker 1: in this country is really really compli caated and it
Speaker 1: shouldn't be that complicated because you have all these state
Speaker 1: rules and then you have the federal law overlaid on
Speaker 1: top of that in the electoral college. And yes, there's
Speaker 1: all sorts of potential for confusion and a feeling that
Speaker 1: that the voters might not have had their saying yeah,
Speaker 1: and forgive me, we've got still some more time. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, June, come on in on this, because I
Speaker 1: do think we all go to the poll, or we
Speaker 1: fill out our ballot mailing in and just assume that
Speaker 1: we could trust these systems. And it really does beg
Speaker 1: the question. It's kind of funny when I'm filling out
Speaker 1: a ballot and I'm filling in circles. You know that
Speaker 1: in such a high tech world that we can't figure
Speaker 1: out a better way that secures it so that we
Speaker 1: don't have to have these legal questions. Uh, certainly a
Speaker 1: day after an election, right. But the the other side
Speaker 1: of that, and of course, you know everyone's all for
Speaker 1: like using an app and everything, the other side of
Speaker 1: that is if you don't have some kind of a
Speaker 1: paper ballot back up, then what happens when you want
Speaker 1: to check the votes? It's it's all on computer. Are
Speaker 1: you're going to trust that, and if they're going to
Speaker 1: be you know, how are you going to do that?
Speaker 1: So that's another problem is that in past elections they
Speaker 1: have said that they need a paper ballot backup because
Speaker 1: that's the way you can trace everything. That's the way
Speaker 1: you know where things came from. So and you know
Speaker 1: the problem is that you know, as Greg said, this
Speaker 1: is all based state to state and county to county
Speaker 1: within the state, so you have all it's not like
Speaker 1: your vote it's the presidential election, but what you're really
Speaker 1: voting is counties in states. You know, I don't know
Speaker 1: how many across the country. And if there was more
Speaker 1: consistency at least, it wouldn't be as it is now
Speaker 1: where you're just every time someone, for example, Trump said
Speaker 1: that the Trump campaign is asking for a recount in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: So okay, what are the rules in Wisconsin for a recount.
Speaker 1: It's it's one percent in Wisconsin, but it's half a
Speaker 1: percent difference in Georgia, and it's this, and it's that,
Speaker 1: and it's so confusing. Well, and it's interesting because I think,
Speaker 1: and I'm curious what each of you think about this,
Speaker 1: And Greg, maybe you take it first, as I do
Speaker 1: think that there was a lot of nervousness leading up
Speaker 1: to this election about how much you know, kind of
Speaker 1: legal wrangling there would be. Um, it does feel like
Speaker 1: Greg though, that it's kind of quarterly right now. Yeah. Really, Um,
Speaker 1: you know, we had a relatively few election day disruptions. Um,
Speaker 1: we had a flurry of activity at the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: the week before, but not so much in the couple
Speaker 1: of days immediately before. People seem to know for the
Speaker 1: most part what the rules were going to be. We
Speaker 1: do still have some lingering issues like the you know,
Speaker 1: the late arriving ballot in in Pennsylvania, But for the
Speaker 1: most part, even if you disagreed with them, you probably
Speaker 1: knew what the basic rules for voting and counting the
Speaker 1: votes were in in all the swing states. Uh. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I would agree with that given what we thought could happen,
Speaker 1: like right on election day. Uh, there was not that
Speaker 1: much chaos on that day. Yeah, June, what are your
Speaker 1: thoughts on this as you were expecting, you know, what
Speaker 1: might happen and versus what actually has so far at least, right,
Speaker 1: I think that people are not talking enough about the
Speaker 1: fact that all this violence was expected or anticipated. You know,
Speaker 1: you had uh, cities where the stores were boarding up
Speaker 1: their windows because of the fear of violence, and we
Speaker 1: really didn't hear about that, And I think that's really
Speaker 1: something to share about that we're not talking about that
Speaker 1: the day after. Um, there are some minor incidents here
Speaker 1: and there, but but nothing that you know, was so
Speaker 1: so outstanding that we would have to talk about it.
Speaker 1: And um, I think Greg's right, we did. There are
Speaker 1: legions of lawyers out there for the Trump team, the
Speaker 1: Biden team, civil rights lawyers, conservative lawyers, and they have
Speaker 1: war rooms set up, so hundreds and hundreds of lawyers,
Speaker 1: and we've just seen very few lawsuits so far. So
Speaker 1: I think that you know, all considering and all the
Speaker 1: different rules that we've been talking about and all the
Speaker 1: controversy before more hand, that it's so far turned out
Speaker 1: pretty well. And to be fair, I mean, that's pretty
Speaker 1: par for the course. In terms of elections. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think this has been an unusual year and it's
Speaker 1: a year where a lot of things have been laid bare.
Speaker 1: We're seeing kind of how the sausage is made when
Speaker 1: it comes to things. And I think even with the election,
Speaker 1: in terms of how many people vote in advance, how
Speaker 1: many states start counting in advance. Um, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of things that maybe we didn't realize as Americans, and
Speaker 1: it's all kind of coming out. And even Greg, you know,
Speaker 1: to have both sides, the Democrats and the Republicans, the
Speaker 1: teams having lawyers in place just in case, that's pretty normal.
Speaker 1: It is pretty normal. Um, you know, maybe that there
Speaker 1: were more lawyers in place than the work uh four
Speaker 1: years ago or eight years ago, but yes, uh, certainly
Speaker 1: after Bush versus Gore, it has been standard fair that
Speaker 1: both sides race themselves and get ready for um, a
Speaker 1: legal fight over the election. Uh. And uh that's just
Speaker 1: the nature of our complicated election system, the fact that
Speaker 1: that our elections, presidential elections are so close to these days. Uh,
Speaker 1: and the fact that we're a rather litigious society. Yeah, exactly, well,
Speaker 1: it certainly has made for some interesting times. Um, folks,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, really appreciate your INSIGHTE Gingrasso. She is,
Speaker 1: of course Bloomberg News legal analyst and host of Bloomberg Law.
Speaker 1: You can catch a weeknights at ten pm Wall Street
Speaker 1: Time on Bloomberg Radio and our thanks so easy to
Speaker 1: Greg's store or go to when it comes to the
Speaker 1: Supreme Court. Here at Bloomberg News on the phone from Washington,
Speaker 1: d C. Ro a journal Now, but you let me drive.
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll do the
Speaker 1: right vel. I want to drive, just drives the questions.
Speaker 1: Try this is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks,
Speaker 1: We'll try us on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed, it is
Speaker 1: time for the drive to the clothes. We do have
Speaker 1: equity markets rallying, coming off our highs of this session,
Speaker 1: but nonetheless some pretty decent games, certainly if you're a
Speaker 1: bullet in this market. Back with us, as Ernesto Ramos,
Speaker 1: he leaves the portfolio management and research teams for all
Speaker 1: equity strategy strategies are at Deemo Global Asset Management. Uh
Speaker 1: and they've got roughly two hundred and seventy billion in
Speaker 1: assets under management. Ernesto back with us on the phone
Speaker 1: from Chicago. Nice to have you here with us. How
Speaker 1: late did you stay up? Hi, Carol's grint. I actually
Speaker 1: I actually couldn't take it for so I went to
Speaker 1: bed early, and I woke up this morning to check
Speaker 1: results quite early too. Uh So, yeah, it looks like
Speaker 1: we have a divided win here. Uh. If finding hangs
Speaker 1: on what should looks like you might then and UH
Speaker 1: and a Senate in Republican hands, which which is where
Speaker 1: we we didn't anticipate. We anticipated the Blue Way, but
Speaker 1: this was our second highest probability scenario, so that came
Speaker 1: to truition, all right, So you guys worked it all out.
Speaker 1: So what does it mean for then the financial markets?
Speaker 1: I mean equity markets certainly weighing in today despite being
Speaker 1: kind of a radic later, but I understand I mean
Speaker 1: last night and into the wee hours because a lot
Speaker 1: of things kind of kept changing to some extent um.
Speaker 1: Does the rally make sense to you today if you
Speaker 1: look at the action here, We think a lot of
Speaker 1: it has to do with unwinding trades that we're anticipating
Speaker 1: in blue weight like that. You saw that the whole
Speaker 1: month of October and early November was a cyclical value
Speaker 1: rally which anticipated a big which we think anticipated a
Speaker 1: big infrastructure package spend from from a Biden UH senate
Speaker 1: and a Biden presidency. We're clearly not going to get that.
Speaker 1: So I think it's a lot of unwinding of that.
Speaker 1: And that's why secular growth in healthcare, because the public
Speaker 1: option is probably off the table now for for for
Speaker 1: for the market, so that that's why healthcare is railing.
Speaker 1: But just you see the secular growth doing very well,
Speaker 1: the cyclicals and more value not doing as well. And
Speaker 1: basically we think it's an unwind up that position that
Speaker 1: took place for the last month and in a week
Speaker 1: if you want to. But but I do wonder what
Speaker 1: it means in terms of Okay, so if we've got
Speaker 1: we've got a Republican Senate, we've got a mixed Congress,
Speaker 1: and if we do end up with Joe Biden the
Speaker 1: White House, but again let's just remind everybody the race
Speaker 1: is yet to be called, and we've got lawsuits certainly coming.
Speaker 1: We've seen more headlines from the Trump campaign. But I
Speaker 1: do wonder, um, especially when it comes to stimulus, if
Speaker 1: we have an economy that's going to need some assistance
Speaker 1: and we don't get the biggest package that we need,
Speaker 1: I do wonder the impact that that's going to have
Speaker 1: on the economy, and ultimately it's going to have, you know,
Speaker 1: an impact on what goes on in the financial markets
Speaker 1: that ultimately will sew up there. So are you thinking
Speaker 1: about that? Are you worried about that? It's a matter
Speaker 1: of fact. Yeah, we are thinking about that. We are
Speaker 1: a little bit more embarish on growth than we would
Speaker 1: have been with a blue wave, just for from the
Speaker 1: pure simple method you just explained. When you have a
Speaker 1: port tralion, let's say trillion UH for trillion fiscal package,
Speaker 1: you're gonna get a lot of government spending, a lot
Speaker 1: of infrastructure projects that will accelerate growth. Now you have
Speaker 1: a divided Congress, you probably also might get a little
Speaker 1: bit more of a shutdown UH to deal with the pandemic,
Speaker 1: given that that biding is more prone to to doing
Speaker 1: some stuff like that than than the Republicans were. So
Speaker 1: and then we think there's a slight negative effect short
Speaker 1: term for the economy. Now there's a positive longer term,
Speaker 1: which is if we get a better handle on the
Speaker 1: pandemic because we do things in a more systematic, coordinated
Speaker 1: and effect that we're dealing with, that that that long
Speaker 1: term will pay off. But in the short and medium
Speaker 1: turn called the next I don't know, three to six months,
Speaker 1: we might have a negative and the fact that you
Speaker 1: don't get that package. Now, hopefully the consumer get some
Speaker 1: relief in terms of additional employment benefits and I'm the
Speaker 1: second round of PPE, but that's probably also going to
Speaker 1: be toned down what from what it would have been
Speaker 1: had we had a United Democratic president in the Senate.
Speaker 1: So because Biden will still have to deal with with
Speaker 1: Mitch McCollum, the Republicans in the Senate with are not
Speaker 1: going to be less inclined to given what he wants,
Speaker 1: had it been Trump asking for it, or had it
Speaker 1: been as republicansented being the one to give it to them.
Speaker 1: All Right, So in a crazy year, it's politics probably
Speaker 1: as usual. So that's interesting, um and and to be expected. Hey,
Speaker 1: let's talk about a couple of names, and now our
Speaker 1: listeners like to get into a Costco is a name
Speaker 1: that you like? Um, I guess it makes sense, right,
Speaker 1: consumers continue to shop there and they will increasingly so
Speaker 1: even if there's a shutdown again. Yeah. So so the
Speaker 1: Loval Autility portfolio, the Demore Loveal Autility portfolio is right,
Speaker 1: the perfect portfolio for this kind of situation where you
Speaker 1: have potential additional shutdowns, potential additional stay at home. Uh
Speaker 1: not necessarily the strongest cyclical and growth and so these
Speaker 1: are consumer defensive names like like your cost cous of
Speaker 1: the world, your Crogers of the world, um, your auto
Speaker 1: zones of the world, where people do is self repairs
Speaker 1: because they don't have a lot of excess money. A
Speaker 1: little bit of defensiveness by holding a company like Neumont,
Speaker 1: which gives exposure to go when the markets go down,
Speaker 1: that that helps you out. But but really it is
Speaker 1: a defensive portfolio. And the other thing that does protect
Speaker 1: against its volatility. Not only does it does it reduce
Speaker 1: the the exposure to the economic cycle, but it also
Speaker 1: dampens the moves up and down of your portfolio relative
Speaker 1: to what the mark it is doing. So on a
Speaker 1: day like the day, we're gonna lag, but on the
Speaker 1: day when the market is down hard, we're going to
Speaker 1: do a whole lot better than the market. And that's
Speaker 1: that's exactly the purpose behind the low risk approach. What
Speaker 1: do you think about PepsiCo? Is it a similar idea
Speaker 1: or a little bit different? I know you also get
Speaker 1: a little bit of a dividend there as well. Oh,
Speaker 1: not to mention, all of the names that we own
Speaker 1: basically in this portfolio, with a few exceptions, pay nice
Speaker 1: dividends because they're made up of stable, mature companies that
Speaker 1: are very strong operating fundamentals, but are not growing at
Speaker 1: the rate that they need to all their capital to
Speaker 1: be reinvested in their own business, so they pay nice dividents.
Speaker 1: Our portfolio dividend rate is higher than that of any
Speaker 1: of the benchmark and that's one of the benefits of
Speaker 1: owning an additional benefit and especially good in this environment.
Speaker 1: So with such low yields in the bond market, but
Speaker 1: this is almost a a bond like in terms of
Speaker 1: income portfolio. Yeah, I'm hearing that. I'm hearing that from
Speaker 1: more and more investors, and I'm assuming that that's also
Speaker 1: so PEPSI obviously with a dividend. Walmart also, um, you know,
Speaker 1: which has got a nice little you know, it's got
Speaker 1: a decent dividend as well. Stocks also up about this year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and these again, Walmart is it's not only a good
Speaker 1: stay at home name, but it's also one of the
Speaker 1: very few companies is competing effectively against Amazon in the
Speaker 1: online space. So it's got a lot of good thing
Speaker 1: going forward. The dividend, the competition against Amazon, to stay
Speaker 1: at home nature of it, and the fact that it's
Speaker 1: a it's a Staples at the end of the day
Speaker 1: type of name. So you want to stay exposed to equity,
Speaker 1: but we think you ought to do it in a
Speaker 1: in a in a relatively defensive way because things you've
Speaker 1: seen in the last few months. Uh, and the fact
Speaker 1: that the economy hasn't really followed the market as much
Speaker 1: we would like it too. Alright, good leave it. It's Ernesta.
Speaker 1: I gotta jump in because we're we're running down the clock. Here.
Speaker 1: Ernesta Rama over at BMO Global Asset Management, joining us
Speaker 1: on the phone in Chicago. Thanks so much for listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or at Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check
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