WEBVTT - Where the Election Stands in Key States 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.240 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:14.840 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. If you 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.280 can download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:20.480 dot Com. If you can also listen to our radio 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:23.439 show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:26.280 sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:29.040 Global News. We will win this and as far as 0:00:29.040 --> 0:00:32.720 I'm concerned, already, we believe we're on track to win 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:39.839 this election. And of course that was President Trump and 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:43.479 President Vice President Biden last night. I do want to 0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:47.519 mention a headline crossing the Bloomberg Joe Biden winning the 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.640 state of Wisconsin. That is coming from the Associated Press. 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.280 As we know, there were still a few races that 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:55.840 are yet to be called, but again the Associated Press 0:00:56.000 --> 0:01:00.000 just calling Wisconsin the state of Wisconsin for Vice President 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.960 and Joe Biden. Well, it is the day after the election. 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:07.039 We still don't have a winner for the White House. Uh, 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:10.240 And instead we've got a date that we are hearing 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.320 NonStop from state officials and governors who are continuing to 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.360 count the vote. Great to get back to someone who 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.200 has been one of our go to voices throughout the 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:22.480 election season. Bloomberg contributor Rick Davis, former Republican strategist, former 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:26.440 manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, and partner at 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:29.160 Stone Court Capital. He is back with us on the 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:32.640 phone from Virginia. How late were you up. Oh, well, 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:34.720 it's not so much of being late. I think I 0:01:34.800 --> 0:01:38.880 was up early. I left Bloomberg headquarters in Washington last 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:41.920 night at about four thirty in the morning. Uh. It's 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.479 it's unbelievable. And we just had the AP calling Wisconsin 0:01:45.520 --> 0:01:48.560 for Biden. Um. You know, it's interesting. We've gone from 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:52.240 listening NonStop to state COVID updates to NonStop state updates 0:01:52.280 --> 0:01:55.200 on the vote. Is there still a path to victory, Rick, 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:59.320 in your view to two seventy votes for both Joe 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:04.240 Biden and Donald Trump. Yes, Uh, certainly both men have 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:08.280 an opportunity to win. The pathway for Joe Biden is 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:12.040 much more direct. Is simply put. He's currently at about 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:16.080 two d and thirty seven electoral votes with including um 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:20.239 UM Minnesota's Wisconsin, as you mentioned, is just broke uh 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:22.760 and and really just to get to to seventy. Uh. 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:26.399 To give you an idea is he's he's winning right 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.679 now in both Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada, and that gives 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:32.800 him to seventy. So it's a three states step. Uh. 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.280 The most direct rap that Joe Biden's got in order 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:38.000 for Donald Trump to win, He's really almost got to 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:40.440 shoot the moon. He's he's a two hundred and thirteen 0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:43.400 electoral votes right now, and he not only has to 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:45.640 try to hold those states that we just discussed, but 0:02:45.680 --> 0:02:49.440 then pick up Pennsylvania and UH that is a dead 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:53.000 heat as as we talk so UM right now, I 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:56.840 would say the most likely winner of this election is 0:02:56.919 --> 0:03:01.000 Biden based on where the current counts stand day. Uh. 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:03.520 As Donald Trump said last night, stopped counting. If they 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:05.920 stopped counting now, he loses. So I'm not sure that 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:08.760 strategy was a particularly good one. Well, that's interesting, so 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:10.880 let's get into it. What what you know? We've already 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:15.080 seen cases filed even before election day. We continue to 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:18.760 see them. We just mentioned one about the count in Uh, 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:22.360 Michigan specifically, I mean, what are your expectations about how 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:26.200 that ultimately plays out and kind of delays us uh 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:29.079 deeming a winner at this point. Rick, Yeah, I think 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:31.799 it's mostly a delay, not so much a change. Each 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:36.640 of these states have their own rules associated with recounts, 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:39.240 and that's what we're really talking about here. The states 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:42.960 will finish up their business accounting these votes, uh, sometime 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:46.280 in the next day or two, and that's what we anticipated. 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.840 There was a record amount of early votes. Many of 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:52.360 these states, like Pennsylvania don't even start counting them until 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:55.600 after the election day votes are counted, and and and 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.080 and as a historic turnout, and so all those things 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:03.360 combine added time of this election count after the counts 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:07.080 are certified within ten days or after ten days, depending 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.640 upon which state you're in. The the loser has a 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:13.360 chance if he's within either a half a point in 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:17.760 some states or one point to contest and um do 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:21.880 a recount. Uh. It's it's the loser's request. And so 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:24.640 in some cases, the president may want to request a 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:29.080 recount if he's within that half a point margin of air. Okay, 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:30.760 So that's how it could play out legally. I mean, 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:33.000 is this a case where you anticipate that this goes 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:34.960 all the way to the Supreme Court. Are there any 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:39.560 similarities to two thousand? Well, on a parallel track, there 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:42.320 is talk on the president's part last night about taking 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:44.680 it to Supreme Court. That is different than asking for 0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:47.479 a recount. And if he takes to the Supreme Court, 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:49.599 it's likely to be the same case that they took 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:52.479 last week that the Court didn't hear, and that was 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:57.000 whether or not to invalidate ballots that arrive after election day. 0:04:57.120 --> 0:05:00.039 In many of these states, they have rules like in 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:03.760 North Carolina in Pennsylvania that if you mail your ballot 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.320 by election day and it comes afterwards, it's still a 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:10.960 good ballot. And the President has always had the approach 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:13.840 that if a ballot shows up after election day, it 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:17.840 should be invalidated. And so that is a case where 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:20.240 they've taken it to the Supreme Court once. It's likely 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:22.960 that's what he was talking about last night. It's likely 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:25.880 that they'll take that again to the Supreme Court, and 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.400 we'll see what the Supreme Court says. The fact that 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:32.080 they didn't hear it uh is not necessarily indication that 0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:34.280 they'll throw it out. What makes it a Supreme Court 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.240 issue versus. And we're going to talk about the legal 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:37.800 aspect in a little bit, but let me just put 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.960 it to you also because you understand this world. I mean, 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.280 what would make it a Supreme Court case versus this 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:45.359 is the state's right to determine how they handle the 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:49.200 election ballots. That's right, and and and the states do 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:53.720 have different requirements in every single state, there's some difference 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:58.159 in how elections are adjudicated. In this case, it's about 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:02.840 invalidating a bona fide ballot in the in the federal 0:06:02.880 --> 0:06:07.000 government does protect the rights of voters, but it also 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.599 does not see the rights of voters to go beyond 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.800 state law. And in some of these cases, state law 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:15.200 is a little ambiguous as to what it says about 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:19.039 voting on an election day and then allowing ballost to 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.120 come in after the fact. These are usually laws that 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.599 were on the books before there was early voting or 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:29.520 before absentee ballots were so popular and so the voting 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:31.559 was done on election day and that and there really 0:06:31.600 --> 0:06:33.840 was never posed a problem, you know, Rick, I do 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.719 wonder based on the outcome and the states that were 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:38.800 one of the close races that were out there can 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:43.160 you determine maybe what strategies worked for each of the candidates, 0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:46.760 what mattered among voters, whether it was COVID or the economy. 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:50.240 What can you tell about kind of the specifics of 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:53.520 strategy and kind of what mattered to voters. Well, I 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:57.440 think both of the campaigns were successful at expanding the 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:01.560 voter pool. In other words, it'll one of the largest 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:06.839 turnouts in modern political history, and so both campaigns should 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:10.000 be congratulated for finding new voters who otherwise have not 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:13.680 been participating. There were voters turning out in millions who 0:07:13.720 --> 0:07:17.200 had not voted in the last probably uh ten to 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:21.480 fifteen years in presidential election, So so getting those to 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:26.160 the polls was a great accomplishment for both parties. Donald 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:30.640 Trump was successful, especially in places like UH Florida, finding 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.720 votes that he otherwise hadn't been getting in the past. 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:38.680 That includes a larger percentage of UH people of color 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:43.360 UH in in Dade County. That would include Cuban Americans 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:48.400 who were susceptible to the UH charges of calling Joe 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:52.840 Biden a socialist, and also penetrating the African American community 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.160 in certain parts of the state UH and and even 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:58.720 penetrating a little bit the suburbs, which you would not 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.160 have thought he was going to get that vote back 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:06.600 after the various approaches he took to uh you know, 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:09.120 sort of his law and order approach. I would say 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:13.120 Joe Biden really got much better at rebuilding the Democratic 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:16.480 Party base. If you'll notice the states that he's winning 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:20.520 that Donald Trump took were traditionally Democratic states. Where he's 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:29.000 ahead in places like UM, Wisconsin and uh Minnesota and Michigan. Uh, 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.120 you know, these are states that the Democrats used to 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:33.520 be able to rely heavily on. That that Hillary Clinton 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:37.240 lost to Donald Trump. And so he did a much 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:41.160 better job of organizing the Democratic Party and and keeping 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:44.360 it together even though he's running as a centrist and 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:46.840 the energy and activists in the party tend to be 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:49.960 toured on the liberal side. But he managed that well. 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:53.400 So so both had talent, uh and in a closely 0:08:53.440 --> 0:08:57.040 contested election, what we really learned is just how divided 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:01.400 the politics in America is today. Yeah, Uh, that is 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:03.199 for certain. I feel like if there's anything that we 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:06.000 can kind of take away from that, um, from this election. 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:09.199 What I do wonder too, is how does it shape 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:12.240 what happens in especially when you look at a Biden 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:15.240 win in Arizona, you know, watching some of the close 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.760 races in the South. I mean, is the South now 0:09:17.800 --> 0:09:22.840 historically has been Republican. Now at play, Carol, You're you're 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:26.160 exactly right. I mean it's worth noting that Florida is 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:29.760 a split right, anybody could win that state, Republican or Democrat. 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:35.200 Georgia is now on the map as a swing state. Arizona, 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:38.640 which hasn't voted but once in the last thirty years 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:42.520 for a Democratic president uh, has now got two Democratic 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:47.240 senators elected statewide over the last four years. Uh and Uh, 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.719 and and and and So I think that you're right. 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.360 I think there is a new game in town, which 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:56.120 is how do you cobble together these especially communities like 0:09:56.559 --> 0:10:01.760 Atlanta and in South Florida and Miracle County in Arizona, 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:05.800 Phoenix that are just fast growth, heavy new populations coming 0:10:05.840 --> 0:10:09.199 into the state that sometimes reflect a different set of politics. 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:11.839 And the Democrats, I think, have done a better job 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.960 of attracting those voters right now than the Republicans have. Hey, 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:18.599 really quickly forty five seconds polling full me once for 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:20.760 me twice. Um, what do we have to do to 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:22.400 get it right, and is it that we just don't 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:25.480 understand essentially the Trump voter. And just quickly, when you 0:10:25.480 --> 0:10:28.960 look at the election, it was an incredibly stable election. 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:31.079 I mean the polling for the last sixty days has 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.760 basically been, you know, Biden by little Trump, you know, 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:38.160 coming from behind. There have been polls that have shown 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.160 double digit leads by Joe Biden going into the election, 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.720 but most of them were single digits in these states. 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.439 And that's what we got. Very close races in all 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.840 the key states. So uh, there'll be a lot of 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.600 internal looking at how these things were done. But when 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.080 you have a historic turnout of over a hundred and 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.839 fifty million people, most of the models are going to 0:10:56.920 --> 0:10:59.600 be wrong. What a what a what a week? What 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:03.080 a year? It's not over hey, Rick, thank you so much. 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:06.199 Always look forward to our conversations and your inside Bloomberg 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.760 contributor Rick Davis. He is former Republican strategists, as I 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:14.200 mentioned earlier, former manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign, 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:16.079 and he's a partner at Stone Court Capital. He's been 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:19.360 great coming on our air to talk about this campaign, 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:22.920 in this election. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:26.600 Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, listen, We've read and followed 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.240 his reporting so closely. He's gone through all the different 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.640 types of voters that would determine the outcome of election. 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.440 Back with us and so delighted to have with him. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:37.599 Josh Green, he's national correspondent Bloomberg business Week, author of 0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:41.000 Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Nationalist Uprising. 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.720 Josh joins us on the phone from d C. Also 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.960 with us, delighted as well, Bloomberg business Week editor Joe Webber. 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:49.199 He's on the access line in Brooklyn. But I feel like, 0:11:49.600 --> 0:11:52.280 you know, Joel, we have been talking with Josh, whether 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:56.400 it was you know, key female voters, shy Trumper's Floridians 0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:59.319 with past felony convictions, We've been covering it all with Josh. 0:11:59.840 --> 0:12:02.439 You forgot about one of my favorites, which was Maricopa County, 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:04.160 and that's actually kind of where I want to start 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.679 with them. Uh, And we've got plenty more Josh Green 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.400 coming as well, and you hope to talk to him 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.600 again tomorrow. But but Josh, let's start with that. I mean, 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:17.400 at the beginning of the year in pre pandemic Times, 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.760 the before times. I'm sure you remember them as finally 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:22.720 as I do. We were talking about what our election 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:24.920 year strategy was gonna be, and you were like, you know, 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.199 it's not about the cities, it's not about the rural area. 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:30.440 It's about the suburbs. And you pointed to Americapa County, 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:32.520 which you ended up writing about in the election issue, 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:34.680 which was over the summer, and I'm wondering how you 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:38.960 feel about that story. Now, Well, you know, I don't 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.520 say this about all my work, but that one was 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:44.080 was prescient and it it sure looks like it it 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.360 holds up because you know, Joe Biden, the Democrats are 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:52.000 winning uh Arizona at least according to a pH and 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.960 Fox News, and uh, you know they did it because 0:12:56.200 --> 0:13:00.120 they really carried Maricopa County was strong numbers. Now I 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.920 should probably say that Trump folks had not conceded Arizona. 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:06.080 I still think they have a path to victory, and 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.760 given the level of polling error, I wouldn't rule anything out. 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.240 But if you step back and look at the bigger picture, clearly, 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:14.400 what we saw in Maricopa is what we saw in 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:18.280 suburbs all across the country, which is we we we've 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:22.000 seen a red to blue transition under Trump. UM. I 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:24.360 do think it's worth saying, though, that part of the 0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:29.280 story of the suburbs is what we expected to happen 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:34.200 there last night, uh didn't happen quite the way uh 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:37.679 that the most analysts were predicting, and that was just 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:42.199 a massive wave that would sweep away Republican congressmen and 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:46.800 smaller uh you know, red leaning suburbs like some in 0:13:46.880 --> 0:13:52.160 Texas and Missouri, New Mexico, places like that. Um, what 0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:55.320 we actually saw was was the blue wave from a 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:57.280 team begin to ebb and kind of come back a 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.600 little bit in the other direction. But uh, you know, net, net, 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.880 the suburbs have moved in a way that they're going 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:06.920 to be responsible for Joe Biden's victory if he wins, 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:10.480 and right now it looks like he's winning. So let's 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.760 talk about suburbs elsewhere other than you know, the Maricopa one, which, 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:17.880 by the way, I was watching uh Fox News last 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:22.200 night when Fox called it for Arizona, and the amount 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:26.840 of just on air uh tension that it was like palpable. 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.320 I mean, it was just like NonStop for the next 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:31.840 several hours. Actually, you could tell the president was just 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.280 calling people. But you know, one of the thesis there 0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:36.640 was like, what happens in Maricopa County and this is 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:40.280 in your story what happens in Maricopa County basically translate 0:14:40.720 --> 0:14:44.320 to suburbs at writ large across the country. Did that 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:48.800 part hold up? Um? You know it did. It didn't 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:52.600 go as far as a lot of people were expecting me. Basically, 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.520 the story of the suburbs, and this even for Dates Trump, 0:14:55.800 --> 0:15:00.400 is that they've moved from white collar, college educated publican 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:06.240 voting Republican voting uh people, to you know, much more 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:12.520 um multicultural group who increasingly have been voting Democrats. And 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:14.520 we that that process has been going on for a 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.080 while now. Part of it is that uh, you know 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.360 is that wrote in Business Week the suburbs are becoming 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:22.400 more racially and ethnically diverse. But a big part of 0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.240 it under Trump is the attitudes of college educated white 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:29.360 voters are just changing. And that process really sped up 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.480 under Donald Trump, and it certainly hasn't gone away. Um. 0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.520 I think what was interesting that that we saw last 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.320 night was that there appear to be limits to it. 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.360 And one of the big questions I had going in 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:46.400 was uh, you know, in ten, a lot of Republican 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.400 strategists said, you know, we may not be in that 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:53.240 bad shape because, you know, even though you know we 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.120 we lost, we're gonna have Trump on the ballot in 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:58.840 We didn't have that in ten, and we think a 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:01.880 lot of our voters will come out to support Trump. 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:05.720 And Democrats universally did not believe that. Well, it turned 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.840 out that people really are um, you know, driven to 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.680 the polls by Trump on the one hand, and also 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:13.400 willing to split their tickets. So what we saw in 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.920 some of these red leaning suburbs was that uh, college 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.920 educated voters were voting against Trump but still willing to 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:23.240 vote for their Republican member of Congress, which I think 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.120 is interesting and one reason that Democrats didn't win back 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:28.680 the Senate and are gonna have a much smaller and 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.000 larger than the House. You know, it's really interesting. I 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.360 just spoke just before you guys, spoke with Rick Davis, 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:37.520 a he ran um as manager of Senator John McCain's 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:40.160 presidential campaign, and he thought it was interesting and he 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.280 thought that now the South is essentially in play based 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:45.600 on kind of what happened in Arizona. You know, you 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:49.560 brought up that point that it's going to be different. 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.800 Excuse me, like already thinking about how the outcomes here 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.800 impacted what's to come and and and also just kind 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.120 of commended both candidates and that they found new voters, 0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:02.920 people who had vote it for years. Yeah, I think 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.320 that's right. I mean, you know, one of the stories 0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:09.359 of Republican success and Trump's success to the extent that 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:11.600 you know he's not gonna lose this this race by 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:13.760 ten points away a lot of polsters were predicting, was 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:15.879 he did manage to turn out a lot of voters 0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.040 who hadn't supported him in sixteen. Some of those are 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:22.000 white working class voters. They might be shy, shy Trumpers 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:24.240 who don't want to talk to pollsters, or it may 0:17:24.280 --> 0:17:27.520 just be that pollsters couldn't couldn't find them to interview them. 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:29.680 You know. Part of the other story is Trump's increased 0:17:29.720 --> 0:17:33.800 margins among Latinos, especially the Latino men. That was hugely 0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:39.760 costly the Democrats in in Florida, all across uh southern 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:42.000 part of Texas where Democrats were hoping to win back 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:45.840 Republicans and didn't um so, so he certainly brought in 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:47.720 new voters but you know, Biden, on the other hand, 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:49.920 if he wins, it's going to be because he won 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.359 back a chunk of that blue collar vote in the 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:54.960 Upper Midwest that heally lost, and right now that looks 0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:58.480 like his path of victory. Josh, can we come up 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.040 to speed with where things currently stay in Wisconsin? Was 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:04.399 recently just a couple of minutes ago called by seeing 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:11.960 in an ap for for Biden, Uh, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, 0:18:12.080 --> 0:18:15.199 all all sort of the ones that everyone is watching, 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.600 and we'll basically determine the outcome. What are what are 0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:20.320 you most interested in? How in all of this? Having 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:22.520 having talked to people in both camps just in the 0:18:22.560 --> 0:18:25.640 last couple of hours, the Biden people feel very confident 0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:27.679 that they have two hundred and seventy electoral votes that 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:31.480 they're going to carry filled uh Pennsylvania, UM, although that 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:34.400 may take quite a while, that will ultimately prevail in Nevada, 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:36.320 and that Biden will be the next president. They've been 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:38.560 saying that since this morning. The Trump people, on the 0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:41.040 other hand, though, have a really interesting path if they 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.760 claim is still open for them, uh, that is that 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.680 Trump will win Arizona despite the fact that the AP 0:18:46.840 --> 0:18:49.640 has already called it for Joe Biden. Um, that they 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:52.760 will add in Pennsylvania, which they feel fairly confident that 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:54.760 they can win, and that they will hold on in 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.040 Georgia where it looks like they're going to run away 0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.640 with it, and now things have gotten much closer. That 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.439 would bring them up to two and seventy four electoral 0:19:02.520 --> 0:19:04.320 votes and it would give Trump a second term. So 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:06.879 a lot to watch, um, you know, both in the 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.200 electoral college and in the courts over the next couple 0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:11.879 of days. Well exactly, And you know, you talked about Wisconsin. 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:13.879 We've just got a headline you know too, and a 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:17.359 story that they're getting ready for a Trump recount request. 0:19:17.440 --> 0:19:20.480 We know he's already fought the lawsuit in Michigan to 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.040 kind of stop counting votes. So I mean, this just 0:19:23.080 --> 0:19:27.480 continues to drag on, at least for a little bit longer. Josh, definitely. Yeah, 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:29.320 there's no question about that that things are going to 0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:31.200 move to the courts now. I mean, this is this 0:19:31.280 --> 0:19:34.520 is you know, not quite the worst case scenario everybody 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:37.440 envisioned heading into the election, but it's not that far 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:39.199 off from it either. And you have Trump having come 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:42.880 out last night and essentially declared victory and fraud. Um, 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:45.440 you have things close enough that these court battles really 0:19:45.440 --> 0:19:48.680 couldn't matter. UM. So you know people have been saying 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:51.800 from the get go, we may not know on election night. UM, 0:19:51.840 --> 0:19:53.600 that's definitely true. I think the hope is that we 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:55.560 know in the next couple of days are certainly by 0:19:55.560 --> 0:20:00.680 this weekend, but no guarantee on that either. And Josh, 0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:04.800 any other final thoughts for you of of uh anything 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.840 else that's jumped out to you. I think what's jumped 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:10.960 out to me is just what a terrible job posters 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:14.880 and analysts in general did and calling this race. Even 0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:17.920 if Biden wins, it's going to be narrow. It isn't 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:22.040 a blue wave. Democrats didn't win by crushing margins in 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:25.680 the House. And we can see it consistently that UH, 0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:27.960 polls were off not just by one or two or 0:20:28.000 --> 0:20:30.520 three points, but by seven or eight or nine points 0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:35.399 the states right after they were off in and and 0:20:35.520 --> 0:20:38.280 the necessary injustice were thought to have been made, well, 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:40.639 there there are still some knobs that need to be 0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.399 fiddled here for these things to get accurate. UH. To me, 0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:45.639 understanding how that all went wrong is one of the 0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.800 stories I'm gonna be watching. I gotta say, um, David 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:51.639 Weston caught up with Frank Letts, who does polling as 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:53.800 you know, big time, and he said, we've got to 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:57.600 figure out how to understand the Trump voter essentially, and 0:20:57.680 --> 0:20:59.800 just said that a lot of times you've got Trump 0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:03.720 ooters and supporters who don't want to answer questions to 0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:06.760 posters because they don't like the media outlets that they 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:08.879 represent or what have you, and then it tends to 0:21:08.920 --> 0:21:11.200 stew it. But we've got to be smarter about getting 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:13.040 that voter. I don't know what you think about that, Josh. 0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:16.200 I think that may be an element of it. But 0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:18.840 I also think that part of the problem is that 0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:23.080 polsters just aren't managing to find the Trump voters to 0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:25.040 talk to. You know, whether I don't know that it's 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:26.919 a voter is saying, you know, I hate you, I 0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:29.000 don't trust you, I'm not going to give you honest answers. 0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:31.080