1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:11,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Daybreak 2 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 1: Asia podcast. I'm deg Chrisner. The bond market was rattled 3 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: in the last session by worries over the federal budget deficit. 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: It's been a major theme all week, beginning with that 5 00:00:21,120 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: Moody's downgrade. Today, the sale of sixteen billion dollars in 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: twenty year bonds saw lackluster demand. We're talking about a 7 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: five percent coupon rate, the highest since the twenty year 8 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: was reintroduced back in twenty twenty. Here is Gina Martin 9 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: Adams from Bloomberg Intelligence. 10 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 2: It's just really difficult to justify owning bonds in that 11 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: kind of environment to degree that you would have yesterday, 12 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 2: the day before, a year ago, and that certainly is 13 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 2: creating some risk peripheralist to the equity market. 14 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: That is Gina Martin Adams from Bloomberg Intelligence. So we 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,240 Speaker 1: saw yield spike right across the treasury curve today. The 16 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 1: ten year was up eleven bases points to just under 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: four to sixty, and those higher yields and turns sent 18 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: stocks lower. In a moment, we'll take a look at 19 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 1: today's market action and reaction with Rebecca Walzer. She is 20 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 1: president at Wallser Wealth Management. But we begin in the 21 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: Asia Pacific. Joining me now is Joe Little. He is 22 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: the global Chief Strategist at HSBC Asset Management. Joe joining 23 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: from our studios in Hong Kong. Joe, thank you so 24 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: much for making time to chat with me. Can you 25 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: take me inside the HSBC Asset Management morning meeting? How 26 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: much consensus is there right now? I know there are 27 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: so many different points of view. It's a very mercurial 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,320 Speaker 1: world that we're living in right now. Is there much 29 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: in the way of consensus in your shop? 30 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean that's a great question, and you're quite 31 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 3: right because we're living in unusual times, ultra high policy uncertainty, 32 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 3: many different dimensions to the investment market equation at this 33 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: point in time. So we tend to run an approach 34 00:01:56,160 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 3: to think about investment markets based around scenarios. We like 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 3: to have three scenarios in mind. Juggling more scenarios than 36 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,640 Speaker 3: that becomes quite quite quite difficult mental mental exercise, and 37 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 3: it means then you've got less time to really kind 38 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 3: of develop and think about what the data flow and 39 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 3: investment market action might look like under different scenarios. The 40 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,080 Speaker 3: central theme that we've had is what I call spinning around, 41 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 3: so lots of policy uncertainty, high volatility in markets, a 42 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 3: big challenge to US exceptionalism, rotation into other global stock markets, 43 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 3: policy support in Europe and China, and a situation then 44 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 3: where the rest of the world equities e F equities 45 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 3: can outperform the US, but clearly with the tariffs, with 46 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 3: the Dodge fiscal agenda to a degree, as well some 47 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:50,679 Speaker 3: of the themes around immigration policy in the US. There's 48 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 3: a there's a left hand scenario which we've been also 49 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:58,040 Speaker 3: highly attuned to, particularly colleagues in the in the fixed 50 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 3: income area, highly attuned to to this idea of big 51 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 3: challenges around the growth, inflation mix, recession worries elevated still 52 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 3: and that has a slightly different set of prognoses in 53 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 3: terms of how investment markets then behave. And on the 54 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:20,160 Speaker 3: right hand side, you know, investors in our equity area, 55 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 3: more growth focused investors still want to think about technology 56 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 3: and the importance of AI, which increasingly is the most positive, 57 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 3: most bullish scenario in the chessboard. And again that would 58 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 3: have a slightly different set of consequences for markets as 59 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 3: we think through the scenario so we like to think 60 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 3: in terms of that framework, and most of our discussions 61 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 3: are focused on a central scenario of spinning around lots 62 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 3: of volatility, but a way forward for markets over the 63 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 3: course of the next twelve to eighty months, or a 64 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 3: more adverse negative scenario. Worries about recession risk being a 65 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 3: big feature of a lot of our conversations, and tracking 66 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 3: the data very closely to monitor that risk. 67 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: No doubt about that. So maybe you can tell me, 68 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 1: in your view, what is the most critical pressure point 69 00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 1: right now? Is it trade policy where the US is concerned. 70 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 1: Is it what's happening in Beijing as they try to 71 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: balance doing a little bit more to stimulate domestic demand. 72 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: Is it a story about the FED and being a 73 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 1: little hesitant to be a combinative given the risk not 74 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 1: only to the inflation outlook, but maybe a period of 75 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 1: stagflation here in the US. 76 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly in the NATO. I mean, all of those 77 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 3: are big issues and definitely part of our ongoing conversations 78 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,359 Speaker 3: with investment managers across our business. But I think the 79 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 3: big one is the bond market vigilantes waking up, they're 80 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:51,679 Speaker 3: settling up, riding into town and really exerting a big 81 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 3: influence on the situation, both in terms of the response 82 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 3: to recent news around credit and grades and the fiscal 83 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 3: measures being unveiled and talked about. But the consequences of 84 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 3: a situation where the FED is already in a cutting 85 00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 3: cycle and long term bonyards arising. That's quite a puzzling 86 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 3: trajectory and pattern relative to what we normally see in history. 87 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 3: But if it sustains itself and we still see this 88 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,799 Speaker 3: pattern of fiscal risk premium coming into the long term 89 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 3: part of the US Treasury curve, it has really big 90 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:31,119 Speaker 3: consequences for investment markets in the US but right around 91 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 3: the world. So at some point, maybe a level around 92 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 3: five percent long term boniards, the consequence and the pressure 93 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 3: on equity markets get pretty severe in our view. In 94 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:46,239 Speaker 3: other words, higher bond yields squeeze out the last drops 95 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 3: of risk premium from the equity market and make that 96 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 3: valuation arithmetic really difficult to justify at a point in time, 97 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 3: whether macro vibes, the vibes around the profits outlook, the 98 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 3: fuzzy and vague guide that's being offered by S and 99 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 3: P five hundred corporates, that really has a big effect. 100 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 3: So rising bond yards has a big effect in terms 101 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:10,039 Speaker 3: of the outlook for US stock market, and then it 102 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 3: also forces investors to reconsider where safe haven assets really are. 103 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:19,119 Speaker 3: Maybe investors are better off positioning in the European bond 104 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 3: curve or in the UK guilt curve, or looking at 105 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 3: emerging market bonds in India, for example, where yields are 106 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 3: very high and there's some shelter from all of the 107 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 3: tariff news, or even looking at the corporate sector where 108 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 3: balance sheets are a lot better than the situation in 109 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 3: the US government balance sheet. So I think it's these 110 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 3: bond market vigilantes that's the key issue, but it's highly 111 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 3: linked to the other policy themes fed themes global geopolitical 112 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 3: issues that you mentioned as well. 113 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: So as I'm listening to Joe, I'm wondering whether the 114 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 1: clients that you serve are inclined to reduce some of 115 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 1: their exposure to US assets right now, whether on the 116 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: fixed income side or on the equity side. Is that 117 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 1: a fairest statement. 118 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 3: The end of exceptionalism? Yeah, exactly exactly like you say. 119 00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 3: I mean, I think most global investors looking at US 120 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 3: stocks are now reflecting on the point we reached at 121 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 3: the end of twenty twenty four beginning of twenty twenty five, 122 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 3: where US stocks was seventy percent of global market capitalization 123 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 3: as something that's something like a high water mark or 124 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 3: a medium term top maybe in terms of the relative 125 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 3: share of US stocks in global equities. And I think 126 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 3: where investors are still keeping US exposure, they're doing it 127 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 3: with a little bit less conviction around the dollar. So 128 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 3: the exceptionalism story reflects on expectations around what the currency 129 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 3: is going to do as well. So maybe for global investors, 130 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 3: hedging equity exposure makes sense, or even else, rotating into Europe, 131 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 3: rotating into China where stock markets are more lowly valued 132 00:07:55,320 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 3: with big, positive visible catalysts for markets to continue, you 133 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,160 Speaker 3: to show good outperformance, especially if we can have a 134 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 3: twelve to eighteen month time horizon, because the short term 135 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,560 Speaker 3: is very hard to predict, as you know, and it's 136 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 3: ditto for the treasury market outlook. Many investors ask asking 137 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 3: me about treasury markets substitutes long term treasuries, ten year, 138 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 3: thirty year treasuries. With that bear steepening dynamic in place, 139 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 3: investors want to explore opportunities in European duration opportunities in 140 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 3: other parts of the India curve or areas in alternative 141 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 3: assets as well. Private credits comes up, hedge funds come 142 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 3: up a lot, and the reason is that you're looking 143 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 3: for some sources of resilience in the portfolio in a 144 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,479 Speaker 3: world which is, you know, where markets are more volatile, 145 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,959 Speaker 3: not something that we've been so used to in recent years, 146 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 3: where the policy uncertainty situation keeps that high level of 147 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 3: volatility as a feature of investment market. It's not a 148 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 3: short term bug, something that investors have to get used to. 149 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,959 Speaker 3: And so there's a real need and focus for having 150 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 3: a more varied, many different color slices of pie in 151 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 3: the pie chart of the portfolio to try and build 152 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 3: good resilience in an unpredictable and volatile world. 153 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you to make a prediction. That's it. 154 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: To what extent are you confident that we are going 155 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 1: to see a resolution to some of these trade issues 156 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: before the end of the year. 157 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 3: Well, we've already seen some important progress, haven't we, with 158 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 3: the process now around de escalation and some trade deals 159 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 3: being formed with the UK, for example. Most investors I 160 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:45,560 Speaker 3: speak to are expecting US tariffs to continue to some 161 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 3: of the heat to continue to be taken out of 162 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:50,079 Speaker 3: that story, and maybe the average tariff rate settled down 163 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:54,000 Speaker 3: in the mid teens relative to what we've seen post 164 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 3: the Liberation Day events. That's a positive outcome, but of 165 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 3: course LuSE, it's still a big shock to the system, 166 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 3: maybe six or seven times the tariff rate what we 167 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 3: saw in the first Trump administration, So that still invokes 168 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 3: a big stagflationary shock at least in the near term 169 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 3: for investment markets and for economies to digest. But maybe 170 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 3: in a situation where there are some good market stories 171 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 3: round valuations around profits in other parts of global equity markets, 172 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 3: particularly in China, particularly in Europe, there's something for investors 173 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 3: to be positive about and look towards. But it's clearly 174 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 3: a difficult situation, high level of uncertainty, and as much 175 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 3: as anything in a more volatile environment, being agile and 176 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 3: tactical and nimble in how we plot investment strategy is 177 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 3: really really key. 178 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: Is there some counter intuitive intuition that you have right 179 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 1: now that you would be willing to share something that 180 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: you believe the market may be overlooking, that you think 181 00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: will develop in a way that represents opportunity. 182 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's lots because these sort of phases, 183 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 3: there's an awful lot of focus on the very near 184 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 3: term and if investors can take a slightly longer term 185 00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:16,719 Speaker 3: time frame, the volatility and the uncertainty I think are 186 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 3: throwing up a lot of opportunities, anomalous valuations for investors 187 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 3: to look at different allocations in different parts of asset 188 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 3: classes around the world. I mean, an interesting example is 189 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 3: the movement that we've seen in Switzerland with bond yards 190 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 3: going into negative territory. Is that something that is going 191 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,559 Speaker 3: to become a bigger feature of what we're seeing elsewhere 192 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 3: in Europe. Maybe to reflect on the question about whether 193 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 3: the European Central Bank should be more like Switzerland or 194 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 3: maybe it should be more like the FED, it's clearly 195 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 3: more like Switzerland. So Europe is going to be very 196 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 3: proactive in cutting rates, and unless there's an awful lot 197 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:56,960 Speaker 3: of bond issuance, there's a big downward pressure on rates 198 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 3: in Europe. So there are some very interesting positive fixed 199 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 3: income stories, and there's a lot to focus on in 200 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 3: the Asia region as well, India, fixed income, China stock markets. 201 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 3: I think a lot of these themes tend to be 202 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 3: a little bit overlooked by global investors because the story 203 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 3: around US markets, US exceptionalism, which has been that dominant 204 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 3: meme over the last decade, has sucked all of the 205 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 3: interest and oxygen out of these other themes. As that breaks, 206 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 3: as the fault lines appear in US exceptionalism, then it 207 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 3: gives oxygen to some of these other stories. So big 208 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 3: opportunity for rotation, A big opportunity to look at themes 209 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 3: in Europe and Asia over the next twelve to eighty months. 210 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 3: But extending a time horizon rather than just focusing on 211 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 3: the very near term is probably the best advice at 212 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 3: this juncture. 213 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: Great conversation, Joe, thank you so much for joining us. 214 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: He is Joe Little, the chief global strategist at Hsbcsset Management, 215 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 1: Joining from Hong Kong here on the day Breakasia podcast. 216 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 1: Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. 217 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 1: So the US equity market sold off today as those 218 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: US treasury yields jumped. The message from the bond market 219 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: seemed to be get your fiscal house in order. We 220 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 1: had the S and P closing down one point six 221 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: percent today for its sharpest slide in a month. Joining 222 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: me now, is Rebecca Wallzer. She is president at Wallser 223 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: Wealth Management. She's on the line today from Phoenix, Arizona. 224 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: Can I begin by asking for your assessment on what 225 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: we saw in today's market price section. 226 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, you know, Doug, it's what we've been talking 227 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 4: about really for the last six months. This there global 228 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 4: macroeconomic change that is really being spurred here by debt 229 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 4: spend and growth of debt by central governments. You know, 230 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 4: really for the last last i'd say fifteen twenty years, 231 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 4: but since coronavirus in twenty twenty, it has been exponential. 232 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 4: So we started off expecting this week to be a 233 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 4: little bit turbulin in the equity space because of the 234 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:01,680 Speaker 4: downgrade on Friday Moody's to align with all of the 235 00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 4: other rating agencies. But we expected that that was going 236 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 4: to create some turbulence. But now what we're seeing is 237 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 4: that global impact. If you look at the twenty year 238 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 4: sale yesterday in Japan that went really poorly and that 239 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 4: was a big tell for Japan, and now today Wednesday 240 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 4: we see similarly. 241 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 5: And obviously twenty years is never. 242 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 4: The same as the thirty or the ten, but it's 243 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 4: still a tell, right and anytime we start to see 244 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 4: sluggishness and US selling our debt. That has got to 245 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,360 Speaker 4: be a wake up call. And so obviously the equity 246 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 4: markets did not like that. We are looking at a 247 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 4: global slowdown, and obviously the tariff policy is on top 248 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 4: of that. You know, we've been talking about this slowdown 249 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 4: before Trump came in, before Trump starts hooking terraff, So 250 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,920 Speaker 4: this has been happening. Then he's got his policy on 251 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 4: top of that. And then when you see that, you know, 252 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 4: the global demand. This is not just a United States problem. 253 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 5: This is it. 254 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:58,320 Speaker 4: China has issues and is collapsing from the property side. 255 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 4: Japan has issues and collapsing from their debt financing. Their 256 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 4: debt financing is way beyond ours. As you know, they 257 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 4: are the highest leveraged country in the world. So, you know, 258 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 4: we have all of these things that are pointing us 259 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 4: to just real systemic, underlying foundational issues that are not 260 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:22,359 Speaker 4: just going to get worked around by micro quarterly expectations 261 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 4: of Fortune one hundred companies to do well. 262 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: The yield of the tenure just under four sixty today. 263 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: I think we've picked up if you just look at 264 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: the ten year alone since the FED pivot around ninety 265 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: basis points. That's a monster size move. How much higher 266 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: do you think the ten year yield can go from here? 267 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I think that if we continue to 268 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 4: see more what's happening is things that are being priced 269 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 4: in right now is just too much risk. I mean, 270 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 4: if you look at that Moody's, you know, PRISS release 271 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 4: for what our debt, they finally you know, followed all 272 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 4: of the other rating agencies and gave us a downgrade. 273 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 4: It's simply a matter of the inability to sustain our 274 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 4: interest payments. We can't have our interest payments be thirty 275 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 4: percent plus of our budget in the next ten years 276 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,480 Speaker 4: or the next five years. And what happens when you 277 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 4: have an administration like the Trump administration not saying pro 278 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 4: or against, but his package is multi trillions of dollars, 279 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 4: just as Biden's budget was a seven point two trillion 280 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 4: dollar budget. When you're collecting five trillion dollars in taxes 281 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 4: and your budgets are in the seven trillion dollars range, 282 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 4: which you're debt financing two trillion, but you're not just 283 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 4: debt financing two trillion jog. You're debt financing all of 284 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 4: the interest on the thirty eight. I'm going around it 285 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 4: up thirty eight trillion that we've already not collected in 286 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 4: tax revenue that we've spent. And so you know, we 287 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 4: used to say this is our grandchildren's problem, and then 288 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 4: you say it's our children's problem. 289 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 5: This is actually our problem. 290 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 4: The people that are alive today are going to be 291 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 4: dealing with this problem in less than ten years. This 292 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 4: is a global macroeconomic catastrophe that is not going to 293 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 4: be mathematically avoided at this point. 294 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: So if you see the risk of a yield on 295 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: the tenure pushing above, let's say we get to four 296 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: seventy five on the tenure, that would be another fifteen 297 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: basis points from here seem like a lot. Do you 298 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: avoid the longer end of the curve right now? And 299 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: if you had to put money to work in the 300 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: bond market, stay on the short side. 301 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you have to, And let me tell 302 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 4: you why, because this is a self fulfilling prophecy. At 303 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 4: a certain point, you have to understand that this is 304 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 4: all interconnected. And even though the bond will really finances 305 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,479 Speaker 4: the world, we know that we do also know that 306 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 4: Wall Street is the one buying the bonds eventually. And 307 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 4: if Wall Street isn't seen that they can invest, they 308 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 4: can't buy low and invest into their companies and make 309 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 4: profits and sell make the differential, then they're not going 310 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 4: to be doing that. 311 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 5: And the fact is that when you have yields that 312 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 5: are that high. 313 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 4: And you have deficits that are this high, and you 314 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 4: know you're going to be doing nothing but deficit financing 315 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 4: for the foreseeable fear. I mean, we have economists that 316 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,680 Speaker 4: have basically said, we will never be able to pay 317 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 4: our debt. 318 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 5: It will never happen. And so we are. 319 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 4: Globally entering kind of a debt spiral of just too 320 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 4: much debt with too little income and too little revenue. 321 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:57,919 Speaker 5: To sustain it. 322 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 4: You can't have a four percent, you know, net deficit 323 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,160 Speaker 4: trade deficit when you're only growing your economy by two 324 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 4: point four percent or two point three percent a year. 325 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 4: You're literally losing GDP as you speak. You're literally contracting 326 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 4: the entire economy. 327 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 1: So President Trump seems to be intent on getting his 328 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: giant tax bill pushed through. The Joint Committee on Taxation 329 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 1: is estimating this bill would increase the deficit by three 330 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 1: point eight trillion over a decade to your point, what 331 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: does this mean for the equity market? And if you 332 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: had to put money to work in stocks right now 333 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: for clients, how would you go about doing that? 334 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 4: Well, it comes back down to what we've been talking 335 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 4: about for six months down when we were getting to 336 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 4: a point where there is a global macroeconomic problem with 337 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 4: your currency, with the M two money supply, with what 338 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 4: is happening with liquidity, because you remember, you've got all 339 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 4: these commercial banks that now have unrealized equity losses since 340 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 4: the chariffs went into a place, and they have all 341 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 4: kinds of unrealized property losses that they haven't wanted to 342 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 4: realize yet because the property valuations of our commercial lenders, 343 00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 4: obviously the commercials have gone down. So when you're looking 344 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,439 Speaker 4: not that, you have to think commodities. You have to 345 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,399 Speaker 4: think what are the safety assets for if we have 346 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 4: some kind of collapse, You've got to have some kind 347 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 4: of allocation to safety, and that's real assets, hard asset classes, 348 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 4: real estate, gold, silver, commodities, energy utilities. 349 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 5: Beyond that, because we have to have all of that 350 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 5: to live. 351 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 4: Beyond that, you have to then say, okay, on a 352 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 4: certain portion of your portfolio, we want growth. So we're 353 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 4: looking at AI robotics, quantum computing, but you can't look 354 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 4: at that if you have to have immediate returns because 355 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 4: this is in the monetization phase. It has not yet monetized. 356 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 4: It's going to take a while to monetize. So we 357 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 4: want to mix. But I will tell you these global 358 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 4: changes that are happening right now are definitely make us 359 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 4: be more macro resistant and a little bit more cautious 360 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 4: and a little bit more going towards the things that 361 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 4: we know are going to perform if we do have 362 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,120 Speaker 4: I mean just Japan yesterday and then in the United 363 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,400 Speaker 4: States to day, both on their twenty year auctions. 364 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 5: This looks really bad, Doug. 365 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,400 Speaker 4: And this is on the heels of another credit downgrade 366 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:58,680 Speaker 4: that we've had in our country. 367 00:19:58,840 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 5: So I just think that tr. 368 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 4: Has got a really hard time dealing with all of 369 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 4: this and still trying to pass a multi trillion dollar 370 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 4: budget and package. And we can't have the salt limit 371 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 4: at forty thousand, which is what is being the held 372 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 4: up now by the Republicans. 373 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 5: How can you authorize forty thousand as. 374 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 4: Assault limit when ten thousand was scored to give us, 375 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 4: you know, multi trillions of dollars of deficit. We just 376 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 4: don't have the money, and we're starting to see that 377 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,199 Speaker 4: the rest of the world isn't going to buy it 378 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 4: for us, isn't going to provide it for us. 379 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: So you seem to be saying that it's not just 380 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: a US issue when it comes to the risks of 381 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 1: equity markets. It's global. I'm getting that clearly right. 382 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 5: But absolutely it's. 383 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: Something that I think we have to look at in 384 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: terms of sell America. Is that still a predominant theme 385 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:43,719 Speaker 1: that maybe you want to look at markets like Europe, 386 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: Maybe there are selective markets in Asia that the theme 387 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 1: of sell America is still something that you want to 388 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 1: kind of stay true to. 389 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 4: If you look at the institutionals, the hedge funds and everything, 390 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 4: they were still very pro Europe and anti America. And 391 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 4: we're still net selling out in April. So I think 392 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 4: that there are still a lot of groups that are 393 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 4: like that. What will you be able to find a 394 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 4: country that does and outperforms America in twenty twenty five, Yes, 395 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 4: but will that country be have the economic security that 396 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 4: we have here in the United States as the world's 397 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 4: reserve currency. No, But is our security as the world 398 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 4: reserve currency? What it's always been, and can we just 399 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,439 Speaker 4: relax on that and go to bed at night and 400 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 4: not have any cares. 401 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 5: That's a no now too. 402 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 4: So everything is changing almost all together at the same time, Doug. 403 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 4: And this is what you get when you start to 404 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 4: approach a debt spiral. This is exactly the beginning stages 405 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 4: of a debt spiral. The interest becomes too much of 406 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 4: a portion of your budget, and therefore you cannot keep 407 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 4: expanding and expanding and expanding your spending. It just has 408 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 4: to end at some point. 409 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: So Rebecca, in your model portfolio right now, talk to 410 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: me about the level of cash or cash equivalents as 411 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,280 Speaker 1: high as thirty percent at the moment. 412 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 4: Well, we do like to go We don't like to 413 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 4: have a lot of autocash for too long, so we 414 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 4: will go to to you know, strong hard asset before 415 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 4: we six thirty percent in cash, but I would like 416 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 4: to see an allocation of cash. And we're from ten 417 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 4: to fifteen right now, because this is just a very 418 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 4: rapidly changing environment. 419 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 5: And you can see that. 420 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 4: You know, we've had five consecutive months of University of 421 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 4: Michigan coming in with negative sentiment and the consumers aren't 422 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 4: you thinking that they're going to be able to go out 423 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 4: and buy once the tariffs hit. We only have a 424 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 4: ninety day paus on tariffs, so I would say right 425 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 4: now we're at ten and fifteen, between ten and fifteen percent, 426 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,360 Speaker 4: and the difference between that and thirty would be we'd 427 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 4: allocate to heart assets. 428 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure to talk with you. Thank you, Rebecca. 429 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 1: Rebecca Walzer there, president of wallser Wealth Management, here on 430 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: the Daybreak Asia podcast. Thanks for listening to today's episode 431 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we 432 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 1: look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in 433 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 1: the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify, 434 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. 435 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves 436 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 1: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner 437 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg