1 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. Today, real betting action 2 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: is taking place around the world and in the United States. 3 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: We're going to get to all of that for the weekend. 4 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: Later on in the show, Dann Revelle is going to 5 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: come on. He's going to talk about two minutes in 6 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: sports history that turned into seventy two million dollars for 7 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: one man. If that's not a tease to make you 8 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 1: stick around, I don't know what else would other than 9 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: just the fact you get to listen to Danni Revelle. 10 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 1: But before we do all that, let's get to Mr 11 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 1: Shawn Zarrillo, who does just about everything for US at 12 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: Action Network, whether it's tennis, horse racing, or in particular 13 00:00:55,360 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: what's most important for today and this weekend UFC and baseball? Seanzariello, 14 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: how are you doing with KBO. Let's talk about Korea 15 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: Baseball Organization? The games are God knows when all I 16 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: know is I see you filing like in the middle 17 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: of the day four stories that are relevant overnight and 18 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: early the next morning. What is happening with his Korean 19 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:25,199 Speaker 1: Baseball organization? Explain it to me. Yeah, it's madness, especially 20 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 1: from a betting perspective. You know, I'm trying to give 21 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: people the best information and lines of possible. And normally 22 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 1: we'd have some MLB games coming up at one pm 23 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: or seven pm local time for us, and these games 24 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: are going off at five thirty a m. Easter time, 25 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: so really getting line development later in the evening. I'm 26 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 1: I'm finalizing plays around eleven pm twelve a m. At night, 27 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: putting them out on Twitter. The last things I'm playing 28 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: is as lines end up ticking up and going to bed, 29 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: seeing some some numbers even moving up further that I 30 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: wish I had waited on and had time to play, 31 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: but I gotta slip at some point. So the kbo 32 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 1: S teems to be taking kind of action. These lines 33 00:02:01,080 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: that are absolutely flying when they open. UH markets are 34 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: opening for them. The five thirty am games are opening 35 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 1: around three pm the day before, so it's tons of 36 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: action coming in. The totals are skyrocketing when people want 37 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: to hit them. The money lines and the underdogs are 38 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 1: absolutely flying up later in the day, so lots of 39 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: value to be had, especially for underdog betters and UH. 40 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: I think people are really taking to this league, which 41 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: kind of has a a old school field to it. 42 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: It's it's almost like watching MLB baseball, all right, So 43 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: let me unpack this for a second. Number One, are 44 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: you getting up to watch the games? Yes, I kind 45 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 1: of become a routine with CPBL that we've had going 46 00:02:40,240 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: since April eleventh, kind of used to those games going 47 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 1: off five thirty in the morning. So more than happy 48 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,919 Speaker 1: to get it for the games. Unfortunately, now that ESPN 49 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: is the broadcast rights, it looks like the games that 50 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 1: we're all on Twitch have been pulled down, So it's 51 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 1: it's limiting viewing options for people who want to take 52 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: in all the games at once. Al Right, So you're 53 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: only getting to watch like a game or two when 54 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: ESPN brought cast them at like five thirty in the morning, 55 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: which to me is just fascinating that ESPN went out 56 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: of its way to do this. But I think it 57 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: speaks to obviously, it speaks to the need for sports. 58 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: It speaks to the need for ESPN to get live 59 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 1: event programming on the air. You mentioned sort of the 60 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:19,359 Speaker 1: lines are flying. We we need to go even a 61 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: step further back, which is did you ever bet on 62 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: the KBO before? And how do you research betting on 63 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: the KBO? Yes? So I've never bet on the KBO before. 64 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: I'd never bet on you know, ty Why's professional baseball 65 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: before early April. But I think, like anything else, you've 66 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: got to find the data points that you think are relevant, 67 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 1: eliminate the noise that you think isn't and then I mean, 68 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: I can basically take the data that's out there, thankfully, 69 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: CPBL stats dot Com. Websites like my KBO stats or 70 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: my KBO dot com, uh KBO fancy Stats, all these 71 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: websites really just do a great job of putting information 72 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: out there and translating thankfully in the English, that people 73 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: can consume and manipulate for their purposes. So really it's 74 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: it's not much different data than I would use to 75 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: build out an MLB model. I did have to kind 76 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: of manually figure out park factors and scoring environments at 77 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: the relevant parks relative to one another, you know, over 78 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,799 Speaker 1: the past two years, and kind of adjust because the 79 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: the league has dropped off so dramatically in terms of 80 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: run production, so I had to adjust for the league 81 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: averages in those years. So that was a little bit 82 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: of manual work. But other than that, you know, a 83 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: lot of the player data is already there, a lot 84 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: of the team data is already there, so I can 85 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: just kind of take that data and plug it into 86 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: a model adjusted for the league average run environment and 87 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 1: get essentially what should be what I think are fairer 88 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 1: offs each day. Uh, continuing to tweak that process as 89 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: I go, sort of widen the margin for the wind 90 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,840 Speaker 1: probability model after a day or two, just to bring 91 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: it more on line CPBL model, which I felt is 92 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: a little bit more accurate, So sort of tweaking it 93 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: as I go, But by and large, it's it's not 94 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: so dissimilar from how you would go about handicapping MLB games. 95 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: You just need to find the right data. Some of 96 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: the stuff that you mentioned was manual. How are you 97 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: even deciding what is the signal and what is the 98 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: noise here? Because you mentioned you have to separate and 99 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 1: then you need to dig in a little bit to 100 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 1: translate it yourself. I don't mean Korean to English. I 101 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:18,679 Speaker 1: mean understanding how the data can be translated into something 102 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: that's relevant. That's not easy. And you mentioned like this 103 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: is a little bit like nineties baseball. How do you 104 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 1: even know that you haven't watched the KBO Like you're 105 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: putting money on these things. You're doing it based on 106 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: data that you're finding on the internet, having never seen it, 107 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: and yet you're acting with confidence about what your decision 108 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: making is. Yeah, at the end of the day, it's 109 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: still baseball. And these CPBL games, you know, they're they're 110 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: absolutely archaic. Sometimes. The one this morning between the Monkeys 111 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: and the Guardians started out six nothing Monkeys. It was 112 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 1: immediately tied six six a few innings later. So those 113 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: games are are pretty ridiculous in terms of the way 114 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: that leads go back and forth. But these KBO games, 115 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: I mean, just looking at the box score, seeing how 116 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: they play out, they tend to be much tighter, much 117 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: more like MLB games, just because the run environment is 118 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 1: lower than MLB games are, and when you compare, and 119 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 1: that's that was really the biggest difficulty with kind of 120 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 1: eliminating the signal from the noise, looking at how dramatically 121 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: the run environment dropped off in this league over the 122 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 1: past two years. They intentionally deduced the baseball because there 123 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: were too many home runs being hit. So the run 124 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: environment now with the DJUS baseball is lower than it 125 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: was last year. Home runs dropped off by But that 126 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: being said, if you dig into park factor data and 127 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: normalize it for that individual season. The data held pretty 128 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: much exactly consistent. So even though the run environment dropped off, 129 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: the relative runs per game to league average basically stay 130 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 1: the same at all these home parks. So I think 131 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: that in and of itself is is pretty much confirmation 132 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: that these park factors are real and held up over 133 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: a multiple year sample, even though the the game being 134 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: played changed. But with that, you know, less need for 135 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 1: guys to hit fly balls, more of a more of anita, 136 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: move runners along, sacrifice batters, keep the ball in play, 137 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:14,559 Speaker 1: you know. That's that's what pitchers are doing. They're pitching 138 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: the contact and trying to limit hard contact knowing that 139 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: the ball isn't gonna really hurt them when it's in 140 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: the air. So accounting for all of that, there's just 141 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: so many more balls and played than you would see 142 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: in a normal major league game today, and fewer home 143 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: runs than you would see in a major league game, 144 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: and the league average is sort of compared to what 145 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 1: we saw in MLB in the eighties. You know, it's 146 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: not baseball that I grew up watching. I was a 147 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: nineties kid, so I grew up with that, and then 148 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: slowly evolved into the analytics revolution that we have today. 149 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: But it really is just a ton of balls and 150 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: play a ton of action. You can see these games 151 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,480 Speaker 1: end in just the shade over two hours sometimes. So 152 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: if if you like good quick baseball, the KBO is 153 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: really gonna be attractive to people. So here's what's interesting. 154 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: Everyone feels differently about their support. So I think I 155 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: can I can find the apples to apples comparison. I'll 156 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 1: watch any NFL game you give me the Bengals and 157 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: Browns on the Monday night, and I'm gonna watch it 158 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: if it's the only thing to watch. But baseball I 159 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: don't feel that way right Baseball. I'm gonna watch the Cubs. 160 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: I'm gonna watch sort of marquee matchups with high profile players. 161 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 1: But you're not gonna get me to watch a random 162 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: baseball game. You're not just watching a random baseball game. 163 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: You're watching a random baseball game with nobody we've ever 164 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: heard of. So is this because you love baseball so much? Like? 165 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: Are you getting a kick out of this? Are you 166 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 1: getting a kick out of the bedding? What's driving you 167 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: to want to watch the KBO? Yeah? I mean there's 168 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: certainly guys in the KBOs. The KBO is a pretty 169 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: strong league. There's definitely guys who are major league caliber. 170 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: There's certainly players you've heard of here from American baseball 171 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 1: who are now applying their trade over there, trying to 172 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: improve themselves or you know, just just finding themselves having 173 00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: success at a lower level where they can make a 174 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: million dollars to play baseball that they would have otherwise 175 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: been been playing minor league ball here and getting paid 176 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: for the year. So these guys are getting paid for 177 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,320 Speaker 1: the first time in their lives, some of them, and 178 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: making good money to do what they like to do. 179 00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: But at the same time, there's guys like Hassan Kim, 180 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,719 Speaker 1: who's the shortstop for the Koum Heroes, who is a 181 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: hundred percent going to be posted to the major leagues 182 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: next year. And if you he's he's twenty four years old. 183 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: If you take his projections and kind of convert them 184 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: over to major league projections, he's a guy who could 185 00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: conceivably be a guy at the major league level the 186 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: average offender and and above a league average hit or 187 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,960 Speaker 1: at shortstops. So certainly a guy who's worth watching for 188 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: MLB fans. If if your team is a needed shortstop, 189 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: he could be a guy that ends up on your 190 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 1: major league roster next year. There's other young outfielders around 191 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 1: the league. You know guy one rookie the year two 192 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: years ago set the Rocky home run record, who's certainly 193 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: going to be on the radar major league teams in 194 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 1: a few years. So there's high end talent who belongs 195 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 1: in the major leagues. They just might not necessarily fit 196 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: the modern major league environment. You know, a catcher like 197 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,400 Speaker 1: we Gang for the Dinos, who's in his thirties now, 198 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: could absolutely be a major league catcher, but as a 199 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 1: catcher in his thirties, he's not really going to attract 200 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: a ton of interest from major league evaluators for his talent, 201 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 1: even though he is good, just because the age and 202 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: contract situation doesn't really match up. Uh Jian John Yang, 203 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: who's the picture for the Key of Tigers. He's the 204 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 1: best starter in the league. You know Hunt. We've seen 205 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: hunin Row come over and have a lot of success 206 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 1: here for the Blue Jays. Now he's got a big 207 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: contract and said to see what he can do in 208 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: the American League instead of the NL. But easily could 209 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: have had success to the big leagues. He just spent 210 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: his entire in Korea, but probably still could have success 211 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,480 Speaker 1: if you wanted to come over. So there's there's really 212 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 1: good talent in this league. There's guys who are interesting 213 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: to watch. There's guys that you know from playing a 214 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: little bit over here. There's Korean stars who came over 215 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: who didn't really have much success, like Young Hue Park 216 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 1: and Kian Sue Kim, who maybe didn't get a fully 217 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: fair crack at a major league job. But these guys 218 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: are still absolute stars in Korea and completely beloved, and 219 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: you can see how good they are relative to their 220 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: their peers. So there's a lot of things that are interesting. 221 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: It's not just being baseball. It's not just being based 222 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,200 Speaker 1: on a bet on. I think there's there's talent to evaluate, 223 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: and there's guys who it's interesting to see maybe why 224 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,760 Speaker 1: I didn't work out at the MLB level for them, 225 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: and why it works might work out at a lower level. 226 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: I see you mentioned earlier. Let's go back to the beginning. Now, 227 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: got a little background that um lines are moving like crazy, 228 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: totals are moving like crazy. How like how good are 229 00:11:07,559 --> 00:11:11,199 Speaker 1: the lines? How do you think bookmakers are doing with this? 230 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:12,839 Speaker 1: And who do you think is betting on this? I'm 231 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: asking you three questions in one. So I think the 232 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,239 Speaker 1: lines are pretty good, the opening lines. They're definitely responding 233 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: to pretty aggressive money, though, because I've seen the lines 234 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: moving fast. I have seen a total two days ago, 235 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,199 Speaker 1: you know, wanted have betted it over eight and a 236 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,200 Speaker 1: half of By the time I checked it again, it 237 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: was eight and a half minus one twenty. I checked 238 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: it again, it was nine minus one. Ten tracked it again, 239 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 1: it was nine minus one twenty. So every time I 240 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 1: look back it was up ten cents. And that was 241 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: all within the span at the twenty minutes basically, So 242 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,320 Speaker 1: there's there's big action coming in this league in terms of, 243 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: you know, relative to everything that's going on right now. 244 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,439 Speaker 1: But I think the books are pulling a pretty good handle. 245 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: I don't know how they're making their lines necessarily, how 246 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 1: good their projections are, if they're sort of adjusting them 247 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 1: every day based off of expected lineups, or if they're 248 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,319 Speaker 1: just sort of pulling in starting pitchers and putting in 249 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 1: a new one. You know, maybe pulling out relief was 250 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 1: based on who pitched the prior day. But like any 251 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:01,720 Speaker 1: other sport people are new to it and they're looking 252 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 1: to bet favorites, and the favorites spying large seemed to 253 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: be getting steamed up. So if you're looking to bet underdogs, 254 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: I don't think you need to pounce on the line 255 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 1: right away like you would for a Major League Baseball 256 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: game MLB games, I'm usually sitting ready to go when 257 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: when the lines come out and firing on the dogs 258 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 1: that I want, because the generally, unless you're betting on 259 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 1: the Orioles of the Royals, who nobody wants to bet on, 260 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: those lines tend to go down the underdog lines if 261 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: it's the right side where the k video lines. It 262 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: seems like pretty much every underdog ends up getting more 263 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 1: value later in the day, So stick around. Uh, don't 264 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: don't rush into the dogs if you want to bet them. 265 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,920 Speaker 1: But beyond that, you know, it's it's still sort of 266 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 1: something that I'm filling out, you know, the Samsung Lions 267 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: home stadium and finding really interesting with those totals because 268 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: the run environment there is about eleven percent above LEAUE 269 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 1: average if you go by park factors, They're the one 270 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 1: that really stands out and in terms of boosting a 271 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: run environment. They took a bunch of over money the 272 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: first two days, neither total hit. It took a bunch 273 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: of under mooney yesterday and the game went over. You know, 274 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: I was on the overall three days. So we'll see 275 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: how that continues to evolve if I just sort of 276 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: have total projected higher. If that that park environment is 277 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: real and it plays out of the course of the season. 278 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 1: Really interested to see how the ball continues to find 279 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: this league. You know, we said that the ball was 280 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 1: deej used, but I've definitely noticed a bunch of home 281 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: runs over the first few days in this league, So 282 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: maybe they introduced a more normalized ball now, something in 283 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 1: between the two over the past two years. So there's 284 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: a lot to watch and evaluate in this league. And 285 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: I wouldn't just be fully ready to dump all my 286 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: money on a on a max bet yet because I 287 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 1: think I haven't had John something. I'm playing everything small 288 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:32,079 Speaker 1: for now and and letting it play out. Reminder, Denravel 289 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: is coming up after Zarillo to talk about the two 290 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: minutes that made one man seventy two million dollars. Before 291 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: we do that, I do want to do a few 292 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:48,040 Speaker 1: minutes on UFC to fort nine Tony Ferguson minus one 293 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: five versus Justin gave G. I think he's plus one fifty. Zerillo. 294 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,440 Speaker 1: You're also our UFC genius. Give me your take on 295 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: this fight. Yes, So Tony is an absolute animal. His 296 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: thing is stamina and just being able to outwork people 297 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:07,839 Speaker 1: for five rounds. He hasn't lost since May, so it's 298 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: it's been quite the run for him. He's won twelve 299 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 1: fights in a row. I mean, Tony's Tony's unique guy, 300 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 1: is tough to beat. He certainly gets his stoppages. But 301 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: gave G, you could say in the same respect, is 302 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: just an absolute monster in terms of his ability to 303 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 1: finish fights. So I think that's what makes this stylistically 304 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: interesting is is you have two guys who seemed to 305 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: almost have a bottomless tank in terms of their ability 306 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: to keep finding the ability to come at you after 307 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: multiple rounds of what would seemingly exhaust any other fighter. 308 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: Gaig maybe is the most dangerous guy that Tony has 309 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: ever fought in his ability to knock somebody out. So 310 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: I do think that this is a live underdog here. 311 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: Daij originally took this fight short rest, and now he's 312 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: getting you know, more extended period of train leading up 313 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: to it. Who really knows what these guys have in 314 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: terms of their availability to train, its specific facilities. I'm 315 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: sure is they're you know, more higher end fighters. They 316 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: have access to stuff that guys on the undercard might not. 317 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: So this is a unique card in terms of people 318 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 1: being able to train leading up to it, being able 319 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: to eat right leading up to it, uh, seeing their coaches, 320 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: you know, working out with the right partners. It's a 321 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: unique card to handicap on like any other really. But 322 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: I think Gafe, you, like I said, is is very 323 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: much a live dog just because he's he's got such 324 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: a high probability of finishing any fight that he's in. 325 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 1: I think he's he's one eighteen of fights by finish, 326 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: so very scary, very very very scary contender there. And 327 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: I think Tony Ferguson is in for the fight of 328 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: his life certainly. So that's interesting because normally the m 329 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: O is no matter what you bet the favorite in 330 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: the UFC fights, because so often the favorite wins, even 331 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: if he's a minus two fifty favorite, the value is 332 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: almost always there because bookmakers will actually depress that number 333 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: a little bit because they would like to get some 334 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 1: money on the underdogs, um just because the historically there's 335 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: such mismatches. So now all of a sudden you're talking 336 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: about gate G is like a potential live dog, which 337 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: means that one fifty you might be get some value 338 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: on that, no question. And like I was saying, in 339 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: terms of training, I'm pretty sure Ferguson lives in California. 340 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: Gate G I knows from Arizona. I'm not sure where 341 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: he trains, but I mean, thinking about Tony being in California, 342 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: how much has he really been able to get out 343 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: and trained with all the all the lockdown orders that 344 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: they have there. It's pretty restrictive. So I know he 345 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: likes to go up in a big bear, go up 346 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,120 Speaker 1: into the mountains, get that extra stamina base underneath him 347 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: at higher altitude. And I'm not necessarily sure what he's 348 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: been able to do leading up to this. So his 349 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: his normal stamina advantage that he might have over a 350 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: guy is going to be dissipated, probably especially getting up 351 00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: there in age as well. Now he's thirty six. You 352 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: know it's at some point that's going to run out. 353 00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: But he's uh potentially an all timer, especially if he 354 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: wins this fight. I just I think this is a 355 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: live dog. Like I said, Sean's realow covering the UFC, 356 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: covering the career of Aceball organization, covering horse racing, It's 357 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,199 Speaker 1: like there's nothing else going on except the sports that 358 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: you cover. Thank you for coming on the podcast, Buddy, 359 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: happy to do it. Thanks dropping. Next up, I've promised 360 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: on the favorites. Darren Rivell, who has had just an 361 00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 1: unbelievable stretch of big stories for the Action Network Breaking News, 362 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: and yesterday he did another one, a great feature the 363 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: twenty year anniversary of the most expensive, the most valuable 364 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: two minutes in sports history. Two minutes for seventy two 365 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 1: million dollars, including an unbelievable scene with envelopes being slipped 366 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: under hotel room doors. Darren, what in Heaven's name am 367 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 1: I talking about? Well, Chad uh two thousand and two thousand, Um, 368 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:56,000 Speaker 1: there was a horse named Fusa Echi Pegasus that won 369 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,199 Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. Didn't really know much about the story 370 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,199 Speaker 1: other than there was a Japanese owner. UM and I 371 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: remember sold for seventy two million dollars, which was the 372 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: highest at the time. And I in the past as 373 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: American pharaoh and justify as their breeding rights came through. 374 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 1: Every time I would say, well it still hasn't beaten 375 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 1: out Fusaichi Pegasus. You mentioned Fusa Hchi Pegasus one the 376 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby, and he had a very interesting lineage and 377 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 1: a very interesting ownership lineage. Explain some of the people involved. 378 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 1: You know, maybe ten years ago I started to really 379 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 1: understand the business side of horse racing, really the breeding side, 380 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,719 Speaker 1: which is amazing. So it's very important to start, you know, 381 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 1: to be worth something as a stallion, that your lineage 382 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,360 Speaker 1: is great. You can't just be like a great racehorse. 383 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: You're likely to be a better racehorse if you have 384 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 1: great lineage. So this horse, Flusa Echi Pegasus, his father 385 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: was Mr Prospector who in two thousand nineteen every single 386 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:08,199 Speaker 1: horse in the Kentucky Derby was connected to Mr Prospector, 387 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:14,360 Speaker 1: every single horse, so this was Mr Prospectors like second 388 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: or third to last class um he died I think 389 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: in and Bob McNair and another another guy who was 390 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 1: his partner had bought a mayor for a lot of money. 391 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: Also had great connections to a horse named Danzig, which 392 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: is very very popular to breathe with. So they got 393 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 1: together and they made this horse, and the horse sold 394 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: for four million dollars as a yearling to Fusao Tekugucci, 395 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 1: a huge record, and so it had started the hype 396 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: machine even before the force started running. All right, so 397 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:58,960 Speaker 1: explain how the bidding goes. Okay, So what happens is 398 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,120 Speaker 1: the horse loses its first race by a neck, and 399 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 1: so people kind of forget about it. But then the 400 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: horse wins and winds and wins. It gets a very 401 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 1: late start, so it's only it had only run five 402 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,680 Speaker 1: races by the time the Kentucky Derby came along, only 403 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 1: winning one Grade one stakes. But it is the Wood Memorial, 404 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: which is a very big race after the Kentucky Derby, 405 00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: where the horse one pretty convincingly having not led down 406 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: the final stretch. They got in a Louisville hotel. All 407 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:37,360 Speaker 1: the breeders are in Louisville or Lexington. They decided that 408 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 1: the first round would be a slip under the hotel 409 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: door bidding process, and they got three bids thirty, forty 410 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 1: and fifty million dollars. And this was just the opening salvo. 411 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: It's so interesting to me, what is the expected r 412 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,159 Speaker 1: all I on something like that put in dollars, What 413 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: are you expecting to That's a great question. So the 414 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 1: way this works is they back end into it. A 415 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: average stud does about two hundred of these things a year, 416 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 1: impregnates two hundred mayors. And what you want to do 417 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: if you're paying seventy two million, which was the ultimate 418 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: split between cool Moore Aspord stud is their American operation 419 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: and should Die Farm, which was a Japanese operation, just 420 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 1: for seventy million dollars, Ultimately you want to make back 421 00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: eight percent of that money in year one. That meant 422 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: that they had figured out that they were probably going 423 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: to stand him at stud for two hundred twenty five 424 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: thousand dollars per live full, so to twenty five times 425 00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 1: two hundred equals forty five million. So they thought they 426 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: could do about forty five million in the first year. 427 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 1: Now what happened was the horse then lost the Preakness, 428 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,040 Speaker 1: did not win the Breeders Cup, and there was a 429 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: little bit less buzz, and so they opened him up 430 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 1: at a hundred fifty thousand per life full. So already 431 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 1: they were kind of behind the eight ball because they 432 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: weren't making up the standard mathematical formula that they felt 433 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 1: they needed to make based on paying seventy million dollars. 434 00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 1: Can you imagine what the bidding process. You're in a 435 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:24,200 Speaker 1: hotel room in Louisville, you're the owner. You've got these 436 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: envelopes coming in and explain a little bit, like it's 437 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: not like the owner. You know, it was flush with cash, 438 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,080 Speaker 1: but at times he was broke. He shouldn't even been 439 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 1: allowed to buy the horse. That was something that I 440 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: had not known. That was in like one or two 441 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: articles like completely buried. That was my favorite part of 442 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: the story. And so he got the horse, the Foosie 443 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:52,360 Speaker 1: Pegasus horse at the Keenland sale in six he had 444 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: bought seven horses for five point seven five million at 445 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: the Quisland sale. Turned out he didn't have the money. 446 00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 1: You had to return all the horses. That seems like 447 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 1: that does not pass the normal checks. Like the guy 448 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 1: had a return all the horses, and now he's won 449 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: the bid for the horse that that someone paid the 450 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,880 Speaker 1: most for in like fifteen years. Like you think he's 451 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: good for that? And he got fired from his job 452 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:21,240 Speaker 1: directly related to being extravagant. Now, then he started his 453 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: own company a couple of years later, and that's at 454 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,200 Speaker 1: that point, that's when he bought Fusaichi Pegasus. Yeah, the 455 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: seventy two million. The only thing I can relate it 456 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: to is Lebron James in an Acron hotel, the Nike Reebok, 457 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: back and forth, and then the story takes another turn, 458 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: which is basically the guy completely disappears from horse racing. 459 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: Doesn't work that way. You get the bug and you 460 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: try to do it again. That does not happen where 461 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:55,359 Speaker 1: people He had one more horse that he paid eight 462 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: million dollars for two thousand four. That horse didn't work out, 463 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: had to retire early, never see the guy again. In fact, 464 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 1: I couldn't find a single article on this guy, despite 465 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 1: the fact that Wikipedia says he's still alive and four. 466 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 1: I could not find a single article on this guy 467 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: past two thousand. I like that about him. It's counter 468 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:20,800 Speaker 1: to what his narrative had been, which was hustle, mask 469 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,679 Speaker 1: get in front of the get in front of what 470 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 1: feels like you being broke, and then trying to fool 471 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,680 Speaker 1: people into letting you back into the game. He got 472 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: out to where he needed to be. He made seventy 473 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 1: million dollars, and he got out he's like, I won, 474 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,919 Speaker 1: I gained the system. Yeah, it's unpredictable. It makes it 475 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: a good it makes it, it makes it a good story. 476 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 1: You know, these guys have to believe that lineage matters. 477 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: But it's it's just not one to one and it's 478 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: and nothing's guaranteed. So the last part of the story 479 00:24:54,960 --> 00:25:00,200 Speaker 1: is cool more which again Ashford stud which is in Versailles, Kentucky, 480 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: now stands fourteen studs, including American Pharaoh, which they paid. 481 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: They constructed the deal before he won the Triple crown, 482 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 1: so it's like thirty million justified, which they paid seventy 483 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,439 Speaker 1: five million, four with a with a bonus. That number 484 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: for Fusah Pegasus is actually a hundred and four million, 485 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: and if your inflation adjusted to today, and Fushichi Pegasus 486 00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: is the last guy in the barn, there's fourteen of them. 487 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 1: Fusai Echi Pegasus is the cheapest horse at seventy per 488 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: lif fall. He's been the same price for seven years. 489 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 1: His horses have not done anything, and only five breeders 490 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 1: bred him last year. So even at the bargain basement 491 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 1: price of only five, people were interested in trying to 492 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: see if it would work. Out. Do you know how 493 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 1: much in the twenty years, how much it's made. I 494 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,719 Speaker 1: tried to do the math. The problem is that the 495 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: horse was being shuttled from from here to Japan and 496 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 1: breeding in both places, so it's possible that in the 497 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: beginning he was doing more than two hundred. The count 498 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 1: in America is a little bit better. I would say 499 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:23,640 Speaker 1: they probably made thirty million back against what is now 500 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,439 Speaker 1: a hundred and four million. They probably lost seven to 501 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:32,000 Speaker 1: two millions. Oh my god, that is a crazy speculative 502 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: market volatility environment. I mean, horse breeding is just, you know, 503 00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,480 Speaker 1: an unreal thing that happens. And they've tried to make 504 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,639 Speaker 1: the greatest combinations and sometimes it happens something it doesn't. 505 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 1: And what was amazing about Fusai et Pegasus is that 506 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: when you look at this horse, you just say wow. 507 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 1: Confirmation is the number one thing that I think throught 508 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: having been to a couple of these sales, confirmation is 509 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,600 Speaker 1: the one thing that throws people off, which is referring 510 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 1: to the body and bone structure. And there are guys 511 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 1: that just look so great that you just have to 512 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,960 Speaker 1: throw money at them. Well, look, it's no different than 513 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 1: drafting any player in the NBA, Major League's NFL. Of course, 514 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 1: off of how they look versus what they're underlying stats 515 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: are the other thing. I will say, breeding is a 516 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 1: miracle in a mystery, no matter what industry you're in, human, 517 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: horse or otherwise. I would say people have said to me, 518 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 1: what's the most dangerous job in horse racing? And people 519 00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 1: automatically go to, Oh, it's those guys who get loaded 520 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 1: in the gates before the race starts. Nope, it's the 521 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 1: guys in the breeding shed, very very dangerous job. Well, Darren, 522 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: that could be your next fade revel bet right, the 523 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: revel great story on Fusichi Pegasus and it's stud fees 524 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,439 Speaker 1: and seventy million dollars out of two minutes of brilliance. 525 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 1: If only I could get seventy two million dollars out 526 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 1: of two minutes brilliance, and I wouldn't want you to 527 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 1: because then I wouldn't have you. You go, I'd be 528 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,160 Speaker 1: I'd be the Japanese owner of this horse, and you'd 529 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,640 Speaker 1: never hear from me again. All Right, Darren, I'm gonna 530 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 1: talk to you again in three minutes for our call 531 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 1: about the next thing we're talking about. All right, Darren, 532 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 1: thank you Sir, this has been the favorites from the 533 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 1: Action Network. I am Shad Noman. Subscribe, resubscribe, rates, comment 534 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,879 Speaker 1: for you. Listen to the Apple podcasts at Stitcher, at Spotify, 535 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Until next time, I Love 536 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: you