WEBVTT - Apple's Heir Apparent Steps Into the Spotlight 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:13.000 This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.000 --> 0:00:17.639 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:22.560 and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:25.919 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:31.480 Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:34.040 One of the largest market cap companies in the world. 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:38.080 Okay, it's about to celebrate its fiftieth anniversary on April 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:38.839 Fool's Day. 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:40.560 Okay, And yet and yet one. 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:42.600 Of the big questions hanging over it, Tim, is who 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:44.640 will take over the rains next. 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.440 It's something that the current CEO doesn't really like to 0:00:47.479 --> 0:00:50.159 talk about. Yet it is today's Bloomberg A big take, 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:53.599 and Mark German highlights Apple's nice guy era apparent from 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.400 more Let's head to Bloomberg News as La Bureau and 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.360 a Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global Consumer Tech market. 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:01.560 The big build you We're just going to tell you. 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:03.800 We just like to do that, John Turnas. It's not 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.160 a name that a lot of people outside of like 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:09.240 the you know, immediate Apple ecosystem, were super familiar with 0:01:09.240 --> 0:01:11.199 a couple of years ago, but he's been at Apple 0:01:11.240 --> 0:01:14.240 for twenty five years. Why is he in the position 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:16.959 in your view to be the heir apparent to Tim Cook? 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:20.240 There are a few main reasons. One, and this is, 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.000 you know, an interesting one. He's fifty years old, which 0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:27.560 makes him fifteen years younger than Tim Cook and at 0:01:27.640 --> 0:01:30.440 least ten years younger than the rest of Apple's executive 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.160 team people who would be in position to take the 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:37.560 CEO role. Tim Cook is not going anywhere eminently, right. 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:40.199 I still think it's going to be at least another 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:44.920 year to go before he's no longer CEO, maybe two 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:47.039 to five years, who knows at this point, right, I mean, 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:49.440 everything in his world is Apple, So it's a hard 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:53.160 position to move on from. And that means that the 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.240 rest of the executives who could take over are going 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:58.360 to be even older, right, And so you need someone 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:01.000 in the role who could take over and be in 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:04.000 that position for ten to twenty years. And that really 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:08.160 leaves you only with John Turnis. Aside from that, he's 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:11.560 the only person on the executive team who has successfully 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:16.760 launched hardware software integrated products. He is essentially in charge 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:20.000 of their products, which generate eighty percent of revenue for 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:23.960 the company. He's known for his political acumen. He's known 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:28.280 for empowering leaders under him at Apple. He's known for 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:31.680 getting into the weeds on the technical side. He would 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.919 be a different type of CEO for Apple right Steve 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:40.280 Jobs was an innovator, a designer, a product genius, really 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:44.480 a visionary. Tim Cook was a visionary when it came 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:50.280 to operations in sales and finances and turnus in his 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:54.400 own right is a maestro of engineering, solving hard problems, 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:59.160 bringing devices to market, drumming up new products. So that's 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.160 going to be a different type of CEO, But I 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:03.880 still think it would be a continuity pick in the 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.200 sense that he's worked under Tim for a very long time, 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:10.240 well north of a decade. He's been a senior VP 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:14.639 at Apple for about five years at this point, and 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:16.840 he's someone Apple has been pushing to the forefront in 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:21.800 its marketing and its keynotes, meetings with government regulators, meetings 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:25.880 with press, local in different jurisdictions around the world, different 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:31.080 Apple campuses and offices globally. So this is someone who's 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:33.680 at the forefront of the CEO race at Apple. 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:35.600 Right now, you know Mark so much here at Bloomberg, 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.200 but we'll talk about when we're going through a different 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:39.720 economic or market cycle. Is that, you know, when it 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:41.880 comes to like a fed chair, we need like the 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:45.160 right fed chairman for the era, like I think about 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.480 during the Great Financial Crisis, during COVID and just so 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:49.720 on and so forth, our goal all the way back 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:51.480 to Vulgar when we were dealing with inflation. 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:52.520 What is it? 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:56.960 Because you talk about the youth or being younger turnus, 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:01.520 you talk about continuity, being an insider, is that is 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:03.440 that what really Apple needs to mean? 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:06.680 What does it really need? And what Apple needs right now? 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.560 Apple needs a shakeup. Apple need someone who's more AI 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:11.880 centric And the board knows this, and you know, in 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:14.760 the conversations they're having within the board, the question is 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.200 do we really want the continuity pick or do we 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.520 want sort of a someone who's an outlier or an 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:23.119 outsider who could shake things up on the AI side. 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:25.240 And you know, what you keep coming back to is 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:27.880 the fact that Apple is a hardware center company. They're 0:04:27.920 --> 0:04:31.000 a hardware platform that all these AI and other services. 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:31.359 Run on top of. 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:34.159 And you can't really run the AI unless you have 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:36.560 the hardware they are at the forefront, right, and so 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:39.200 the hardware picture, at least for now, it does work. 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.240 But let's see if someone else emerges in the next 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:43.760 few years. I don't think that's going to happen. Apple 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.400 is such a unique culture and a unique company that 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:50.440 you really can't bring in an outsider. So all signs 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:51.719 point to Turnis. 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:54.520 Well on on Turnas's track record mark. One thing that 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:57.640 surprised me and I kind of let out this audible 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.279 yelp in the newsroom when I got to this part 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:03.320 of your story was the missteps that he's had have 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:06.919 been very prominent. I mean, two things that Apple moved 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:11.120 away from that were as widely seen as mistakes happened 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.800 under Turnas's tenure. Talk about the keyboard, the Butterfly keyboard 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:15.680 issue in the touch bar. 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:18.920 Yeah, he's not had a good run in the mid 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:22.520 twenty tens with keyboard related items. You had the Butterfly keyboard, 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:26.080 which was a disaster and kept breaking for typing. You 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.320 had the touch bar. Now, the thing let's say about 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:30.240 the touch bar and the Butterfly keyboard. He was the 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:33.960 engineering implementer of these ideas. These were two things that 0:05:33.960 --> 0:05:37.960 were pushed heavily by the design team and Apple at 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.120 the time, and so he was really executing on the 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:44.400 vision that they pushed him to execute on the design team, 0:05:44.400 --> 0:05:46.600 and Apple is in a different era. They are in 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.800 lockstep now with the engineering team run by John Turnas 0:05:49.839 --> 0:05:52.839 because he also oversees the design teams now both hardware 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:56.000 and software. So I think that it's a bit of 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.760 a different situation right now. Since he became senior VP, 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.839 Apple's product have improved dramatically in terms of quality and features. 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:04.880 I mean, you see the macook Airs and the Maclook 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:07.960 pros and the iPhones these days, the durability is just insane. 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:10.839 So I do think that, you know, that was ten 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:14.200 years ago. Those are notable missteps under his watch when 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.400 he was running Mac Hardware engineering, but certainly there's been 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:18.800 a lot of improvement since that time. 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:21.120 So, you know, I want to go back to how 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:23.279 you started. You said, Tim Cook, it could be next year, 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:24.159 it could be two. 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:26.000 To five years. I mean, if it's longer, it. 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.760 Actually gives you know, Cook some more time to kind 0:06:28.800 --> 0:06:31.480 of figure out and maybe also continue to kind of 0:06:31.480 --> 0:06:32.840 guide the strategy of the company. 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:34.840 I mean a lot can happen, you. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.320 Know, in two, three, four or five years. So I'm 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:42.440 just wondering, how how much is you know, turnus a 0:06:42.520 --> 0:06:43.120 sure thing. 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.080 Well, the longer that Tim Cook is CEO, the odds 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:50.400 go up that Turnus is a sure thing because everyone 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:52.400 else around Tim Cook on the executive team is just 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:56.960 going to get older and older, you know, and so 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:58.800 that is going to leave turn It's like, if Tim 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.440 Cook steps down in five years, Turnus will be fifty five, 0:07:01.839 --> 0:07:06.760 still giving him fifteen years potentially in the CEO seat. 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:10.720 Maybe longer than that, everyone else will have aged out. 0:07:10.760 --> 0:07:13.880 I mean, you have EDDIEQ who runs services. He's pushing 0:07:14.240 --> 0:07:18.320 over sixty. Greg Joswek runs marketing over sixty. You have 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:21.520 software engineering chief Craig Federigi who's in his late fifties 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:24.280 and has already declared publicly that he shouldn't and does 0:07:24.320 --> 0:07:27.680 not want to be CEO of Apple. You have a 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:31.400 new CFO who's relatively young around Turnus's age, but Apple's 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:35.000 not going to make a CFO their CEO. You have 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:39.320 a new COO who's about sixty and at this point 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:43.679 he's going to be too old to become CEO as well, 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.160 and so all of your options are gone. You had 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:49.760 people talk about Jeff Williams. For many years, he was 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.280 the COO. They had been putting him in the driver's 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.480 seat as a successor by giving him more product and 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:57.400 design responsibility, but he retired at the end of last year, 0:07:57.400 --> 0:07:59.560 so he's no longer an option. There was all sorts 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:02.480 of speculation about Angela Ernce, you know, six years ago 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.040 when she was running retail. She's out of the company 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.239 as of twenty nineteen, so she's no longer an option. 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.640 So basically, you're out of You're out of options unless 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.679 Apple's going to go external, which would be a massive shock. 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:16.320 Well that's what I was going to ask you. 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:18.280 What's the chance that they go external or what's the 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:21.360 chance that they bring back somebody who left but who 0:08:21.360 --> 0:08:22.400 also knows the culture. 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:28.200 Apple has a remarkably bad track record bringing in executives 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:32.960 from the outside. Nearly everyone who they've brought in has 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:36.640 been a failure from an outsider's perspective. They had their 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:39.760 Chief People officer, Carol Surfis, who was out in two years. 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:42.520 I mentioned Angela Errence, the retail chief, she was out 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:46.560 in five years. There's some other examples there as well, 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.440 but it has not worked out. Pretty for them from 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.640 an Apple cultural standpoint, and John Turnis having been there 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:55.599 for twenty five years makes it a lot simpler for 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.199 him to be in the role. Lots of people at Apple. Oh, 0:08:58.240 --> 0:08:59.719 the other example I should give, by the way, is 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:01.880 John jin Andrea, who was the aichief. He came from 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.400 Google and that was a complete disaster. Right, So the 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:09.240 track record on outsiders has been extremely poor, to say 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:13.440 the least. Apple's run like a family business, right for 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:15.840 keeping in the family. It's run by the family, the 0:09:15.840 --> 0:09:17.760 same people who've been around for a very long time, 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:19.559 and so they're going to pass it on to the 0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:20.920 next member of the family. 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:23.200 I think, Mark, we don't want to give the entire 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:24.640 story away. It is one of the most read stories 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:26.840 on the Bloomberg terminal. It is today's big take. Everybody 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:28.720 should check it out. It's not all you have on 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:31.480 the terminal today. A couple other stories we wanted to highlight. 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:36.360 A scoop from you about adding search advertising to Apple 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.480 Maps in a push to make services even bigger. What 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:42.240 is Apple planning on doing to our maps? 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:48.280 Yeah, similar to Google and Yelp, restaurants brands stores to 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:51.880 bid on search query. So for example, coffee shop in 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:55.400 your area wants to bid on the term coffee. Probably 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:57.920 that'll cost them a lot of money. But if they're 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:01.640 the highest bidder and you search coffee at locale, they'll 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:03.880 pop up first as an AD on the search results, 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:09.080 and that's an AD. So big advertising expansion for Apple. Obviously, 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:12.000 Apple Maps is extraordinarily visible. They've been pushing ads for 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:14.680 years now in the app store, search ads included. They've 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:18.080 been pushing advertising within the Apple News app and the 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:22.640 news section in the Stocks application. So definitely this is 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:24.800 a big lever that they're pulling here to try to 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:27.160 generate more revenue. The estimates are they made eight million 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:31.680 from in iOS ads or they're going to across twenty 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:33.679 twenty six. Putting it in Maps is probably going to 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:34.680 double that pretty quickly. 0:10:34.760 --> 0:10:37.240 Hey, speaking of pulling a lever, you've got another story, man, 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:38.720 I mean he. 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:39.600 Still has time for us. 0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:40.720 What's the other story? 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:41.520 I already forgot. 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:46.120 App just started to AI comeback bid. Oh yeah, because 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:47.040 the doctors. 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:50.560 That what's coming up this Worldwide Developers Conference and what 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.319 we might get in terms of AI levers. 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.520 Yeah, as they reported, I think first first week of 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:57.600 January or second week of January. They're going to revamp 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.720 Serie as a chatbot to compete with chat gipt uh 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:04.120 in Claude in Gemini and what have you. So all 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:05.680 the focus will be on Siri and AI. 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.320 Is this right that they report on? Oh yeah, may first. 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.080 I think that's an estimate they. 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:12.080 Will, that's an estimate. 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:17.360 That's estimate, okay, So Mary, Yeah, timeframes typically WWC's typically 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.480 for developers. I mean that's that's the whole point of that. 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.200 You get unveiling a well, iOS, the announce. 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:24.520 The new OS is right, so they'll announce iOS twenty seven, 0:11:24.679 --> 0:11:27.600 the other new operating systems and so yeah, developers got 0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:30.079 a bunch of new frameworks and tools, and consumers got 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:33.040 a bunch of new features. But this year is going 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:36.040 to be lighter than usual. This is all the all 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:37.720 the features are going to be about AI this year. 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:39.319 Everything else is going to be pretty minimal. 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:41.080 So we're gonna like Siri. 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:46.080 Now, I have no idea. I mean, I know, I 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:47.800 know what the features are going to be, but I 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.679 couldn't tell you if they're going to work properly or not. 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:51.680 And I couldn't tell you if consumers are going to 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.320 like them. But I think if they work to an 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:58.760 effective rate of eighty five percent ninety percent, that platform 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.280 of over two billion users is going to pull in a. 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:01.800 Lot of people. 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.600 Okay, before we let you go shameless plug, you and 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:08.160 I are doing a live Q and A for Bloomberg subscribers. 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:11.000 It's on Thursday, March twenty six. It starts at eleven 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.760 am Eastern time. Mark German. It's an Ask you anything 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.000 of Mark Erhaman. You can send him questions ahead of time. 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.679 You can get in touch with us anything, anything, anything 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:21.920 people do. We love it. 0:12:21.679 --> 0:12:24.280 It's a fun time, all right, looking forward to Hey, Mark, 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.920 thank you so much as always are Mark Gerhm in there. 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.440 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:31.440 up after this. 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.880 You are listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.240 us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:45.400 Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:48.720 Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.959 Just looking at our live blog on the US war 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.000 in Iran, we have President Trump saying that the straight 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.040 of hormones to reopen soon under a joint control with 0:12:57.120 --> 0:13:01.880 the United States Iranian media. Nine negotiations have taken place. 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:05.880 We mentioned Brent crude falling back, we mentioned WTI creed 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.160 falling back as well, and then President Trump suspended threatened 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.960 strikes on energy infrastructure, citing talk. 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.439 So this is kind of the latest on our blog. 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:18.360 Meantime, maybe we'll ask our next guest about what we 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:19.640 have else on the blog. 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.480 OK, we can't leave it there, kay, So I'm going 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:24.480 to just read from this because Jennifer Welch, if you 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:26.520 watch our program, if you listen to our program, you 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.440 know her well. At this point, she's chief geo economic 0:13:29.440 --> 0:13:32.200 sanalist for Bloomberg Economic, she writes, and several explanations could 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.840 account for the contradictory messages from President Trump and Iran 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.439 over talks to end the war. The most likely explanation 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.840 is the US is pursuing negotiations as the President searches 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:44.640 for an off ramp, but exaggerating progress in an attempt 0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:46.000 to reassure markets. 0:13:46.000 --> 0:13:48.320 All right, So that might explain, right the contradictions that 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.840 we were seeing. Hey, we wanted to get We're going 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:52.520 to get a view from the White House in just 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:54.559 a moment, and really the national security aspect from the 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:56.400 United States. But right now we want to get a 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:58.880 view from the region. We had to Istanbul and to 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:03.400 Bloomberg News Middle East and North Africa managing editor on 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:08.040 our aunt. He oversees editorial direction and newsroom operations across 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:11.400 the region, and so delighted to have him with us 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:13.600 on our Thank you so much. And a little bit later, 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:18.640 where you are, we are trying to understand exactly kind 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.160 of what feels like contradictory statements from the White House 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:26.040 the US versus what's coming out of Iran set the 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:26.640 record straight. 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:27.320 What do we know? 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:33.440 Well, we know that US President Donald Trump back down 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:38.360 from his earlier threat to strike Iran's energy sites if 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:42.320 straight or foremost is not reopened by the end of 0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:45.760 his forty eight hour deadline, which he started on Saturday evening, 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:50.640 So basically in about six or seven hours that deadline 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:55.720 would have expired. But earlier today, very early in the 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.840 morning in the US, all of a sudden, we have 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:04.880 seen that present Trump posting several messages on social media, 0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:08.760 followed by his in person remarks to reporters in the 0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:12.080 US where he said, unlike what he had said before, 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.760 that he was talking to Iranian officials and that a 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:19.560 deal was possible and therefore he gave Iran a five 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:25.320 day reprieve, basically promising not to hit any energy assets 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:30.160 in the Islamic Republic until Saturday. Those remarks were followed 0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:36.840 by repeated claims by Iranian media that said such talks 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.640 never really happened. Iran, in fact, did not respond to 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:45.480 US requests for negotiations, and the fact that Trump backed 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:49.400 down from his earlier threats was basically down to the 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:54.240 Iranian response to earlier US and Israeli threats in the region, 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:58.320 and basically a function of how the war has so 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:02.720 far unfolded that those are the sort of two emerging 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:07.040 main narratives coming out of the US and Iran over 0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:08.320 the last few hours. 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:11.840 So then how do we how do we explain the 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:15.560 public statements differing from what we know is happening privately, 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:19.920 and the differences that we're hearing from Iran saying wait 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:21.880 a second, no, we are not having any discussions. 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:28.920 It's not extremely surprising. Obviously, there is this one marginal 0:16:28.960 --> 0:16:32.680 possibility that everything that's coming out of the mouth of 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:38.400 the US president is completely false and a lie. It's plausible, 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:41.600 but it's not very likely. What is more likely is 0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:44.560 the fact that what's happening now is a continuation of 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.480 what we have seen so far during the conflict and 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:52.080 even before the conflict. Iran and Iran's administration sees this 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:56.480 war as an existential one and they do not want 0:16:56.560 --> 0:17:00.440 to project any sign of weakness to their own public. 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.800 So even if there is a back channel negotiation going 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:08.479 on with the US, which seems to exist judging by 0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:10.720 all the reporting that we have done over the last 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:14.680 few hours, they do not want to portray this as 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.360 a negotiation between Islamic state and its adversaries in an 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:21.720 axidentual war. But instead they would like to portray this 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:26.520 as a case where Iran has retaliated so violently and 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:30.840 so strongly to previous US and Israeli attacks since the 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.920 war began about twenty four days ago, that right now 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:36.760 the US is forced to sort of backtrack it's earlier 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:41.880 threats and steps in the war, putting Iran in this 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:46.680 position of power and superiority in the war. So that's 0:17:46.760 --> 0:17:50.960 where I think the inconsistency is mainly coming from. 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.360 No last few want I want to ask you because 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:57.119 as you said, I think it's safe to say that 0:17:57.160 --> 0:18:00.280 many would would point out that on both sides you 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:02.479 could question the messaging. 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:03.840 And what is fact? 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:08.719 What is maybe a little bit of a massaging of 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:10.920 the message and the same thing out of Iran. How 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.679 do we trust what we're hearing out of Iran as well? 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:18.240 Okay, it's not very easy, and we have been very 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:24.720 adamant in our efforts to filter out propaganda from the 0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:32.760 actual messaging. That said, today, immediately after Trump's social posts 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.280 that said that he was in box with the Iranian leadership, 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:41.639 we have seen a concerted effort by Iranian state linked 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:45.960 media outlets trying to counter that message with the message 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:49.680 sue that I just explained a couple of minutes ago. 0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:55.840 This is clearly centralized. So yes, we are trying to 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:59.960 filter out the propaganda, but there is a clear emerging 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:04.000 pattern in Erani media today that shows the messaging coming 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.960 out of Tehran was highly centralized and it is a 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:12.040 closely choreographed place. We cannot talk about a free media 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.720 that is free to report on anything it wants. 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:18.040 So let's say that we do see an end to 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:21.760 the conflict in the coming days, what does Iran look 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:24.040 like host this war? 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.480 That is a very difficult question to answer, but I 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:34.440 will do my best according to what the US Israeli 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.200 Alliance said since the beginning of the war on February 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:43.520 twenty eight, thousands more than more likely more than seven thousands, 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:47.760 seven thousand targets in Iran have been hit. Now, they 0:19:47.840 --> 0:19:51.560 have spared the energy assets for most part of the war, 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:56.880 but we know that administrative buildings, civilian infrastructure has been 0:19:56.920 --> 0:20:01.000 heavily targeted. So on the one hand, you have a 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:07.239 country where the infrastructure has been very heavily degraded. On 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:12.560 the other hand, though, if the war unfolds pretty much 0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:14.600 in a similar way to how it has so far, 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:20.520 and if there is no conclusive peace agreement, that would 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:23.800 that would allow Trump and also is really Prime Minister 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:27.480 Natanielle to say that they have managed to take or 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:31.640 extract every single concession they wanted to going into this war. 0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:35.919 It will make Iran look like a victorious look like 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:39.520 the victorious side after this war, and therefore will allow 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:44.600 it to maintain a sense of legitimacy in the as 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.080 of its own people and also regionally after the war 0:20:48.240 --> 0:20:48.920 is concluded. 0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:51.840 One last thing, just quickly, this is crossing the Bloomberg 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:54.200 terminal coming from the New York Times. At the Pentagon, 0:20:55.320 --> 0:21:00.560 officials are weighing deployment of air troops to on and 0:21:00.680 --> 0:21:03.639 the New York Times citing Defense officials on that troop deployment. 0:21:04.080 --> 0:21:07.560 If we see that, would it be assumed to be 0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:10.320 seen as an escalation on the part of Iran? 0:21:10.560 --> 0:21:13.240 And then what would that mean maybe in terms of 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:15.440 this war just quickly. 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:18.280 I guess that would depend on where exactly those troops 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:23.080 are going to be landed if that happens. There are 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:25.840 known we have seen over the last couple of weeks 0:21:25.880 --> 0:21:29.439 that there are certain areas where the US thinks it 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:32.760 may land its troops, such as the carg Island, which 0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:36.960