Speaker 1: Welcome to On the Job. As you might be noticing
Speaker 1: if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.
Speaker 1: I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back
Speaker 1: in season three when I told my story A Brush
Speaker 1: with Fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to
Speaker 1: take the wheel for our whole new season of On
Speaker 1: the Job, our seventh in fact, So over the next
Speaker 1: eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally
Speaker 1: folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there
Speaker 1: doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,
Speaker 1: On the Job is on the move, so come along
Speaker 1: for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition
Speaker 1: here at On the Job to start the season by
Speaker 1: speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand
Speaker 1: the current state of our labor market. So to kick
Speaker 1: things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina
Speaker 1: to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of
Speaker 1: North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty
Speaker 1: years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,
Speaker 1: an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved
Speaker 1: to know that I chose a person that understands your
Speaker 1: apprehension and has made it his life's work to help
Speaker 1: people get over that econ phobia.
Speaker 2: Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my
Speaker 2: life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.
Speaker 2: And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at
Speaker 2: some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off
Speaker 2: the podium and go on go to the next level,
Speaker 2: because I do love talking about and explain the economics
Speaker 2: to people.
Speaker 1: You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 1: That's right, And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden
Speaker 1: actually thinks economics can be thrilling.
Speaker 2: Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three
Speaker 2: economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh, because that's usually reaction I
Speaker 2: get because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't go together.
Speaker 2: But I was motivated to that by, quite frankly, the
Speaker 2: economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I
Speaker 2: felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I
Speaker 2: could write something that would teach them economics but would
Speaker 2: be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,
Speaker 2: my wife and I actually wrote three, one on macroeconomics,
Speaker 2: one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and
Speaker 2: students love them.
Speaker 1: So if you're looking for an exciting summer read, we'll
Speaker 1: have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.
Speaker 1: In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current
Speaker 1: state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the
Speaker 1: hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a
Speaker 1: quick Google search and I see that the unemployment rate
Speaker 1: is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.
Speaker 2: It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.
Speaker 2: It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip
Speaker 2: roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the
Speaker 2: pandemic hit and we economists knew that that was going
Speaker 2: to cause a recession, and it did. We had an
Speaker 2: unemployment rate in March I believe March or April of
Speaker 2: twenty twenty and fourteen percent, highest since the so called
Speaker 2: Great Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began
Speaker 2: to open up, which happened at the end of May,
Speaker 2: and once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money
Speaker 2: in the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we
Speaker 2: got back to pre levels of at least production within
Speaker 2: another quarter, and we've been growing since, and we're actually
Speaker 2: now in an economy that's beyond where it was pre
Speaker 2: pandemic in terms of production, also in terms of employment.
Speaker 1: I think we can all agree that a low unemployment
Speaker 1: rate is a good thing, but I have to admit
Speaker 1: that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out
Speaker 1: in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three
Speaker 1: point four percent, does that mean that there are no
Speaker 1: jobs availed for someone looking or are there lots of
Speaker 1: jobs that we just can't keep filled? Oh?
Speaker 2: No, there right now. A lot of people heard this
Speaker 2: and recently that there were two jobs available for every
Speaker 2: person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better as about
Speaker 2: one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.
Speaker 2: Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one
Speaker 2: point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,
Speaker 2: there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.
Speaker 1: But doctor Wolden explained the types of jobs that are
Speaker 1: widely available are different from those that we might have
Speaker 1: seen one or two years ago, because as the world
Speaker 1: returns to some sort of post pandemic, normal Americans are
Speaker 1: once again craving community. We want to hang out at
Speaker 1: bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue vacation.
Speaker 1: And therefore the jobs market, those now hiring signs we're
Speaker 1: seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.
Speaker 2: If you look at the latest job of report we
Speaker 2: had for the nation, which came out well January, it
Speaker 2: was a very robust report. What we saw is a
Speaker 2: lot of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs,
Speaker 2: exactly the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And
Speaker 2: I think what's happened here is the tech sector is
Speaker 2: slowing down. So I think that this makes sense to
Speaker 2: me that as a tech sector shed some people, those people,
Speaker 2: maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to
Speaker 2: go back at least for a while, and maybe those
Speaker 2: jobs that I left.
Speaker 1: Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs
Speaker 1: available for every job seeker, doctor Waldon suggests that we
Speaker 1: shouldn't get too comfortable. Employers have a special trick up
Speaker 1: their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should
Speaker 1: all be careful about.
Speaker 2: One thing we're going to see more of to deal
Speaker 2: broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually
Speaker 2: feared a decade ago, and that is technology.
Speaker 1: In other words robots, well, also automation and AI, but yes,
Speaker 1: also robots.
Speaker 2: But I think some of those technologies have been developed,
Speaker 2: they may hit at just the right time.
Speaker 1: And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive
Speaker 1: tasks that are at risk of being replaced.
Speaker 2: Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being
Speaker 2: developed and then there's some scary things about that, but
Speaker 2: that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So
Speaker 2: I don't think we should get too set in thinking
Speaker 2: that all this labor shortage is going to go on.
Speaker 2: I do think eventually we're going to see a lot
Speaker 2: of this technology come in and be used by businesses.
Speaker 2: So I still think people need to worry about getting
Speaker 2: the skills that they need to get in order to
Speaker 2: get the job they want, and just don't be setting
Speaker 2: back and saying, oh, I can get a job anytime
Speaker 2: I want, because there's so many jobs deal I think
Speaker 2: eventually it'll change.
Speaker 1: So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, folks, strike
Speaker 1: while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.
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Speaker 1: We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who
Speaker 1: is just reflecting on a very strong post pandemic labor
Speaker 1: market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even
Speaker 1: in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,
Speaker 1: sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.
Speaker 2: We are probably in an era where what business is
Speaker 2: want and the skills that are needed are changing more
Speaker 2: rapidly than any time before. And I think, what's going
Speaker 2: to happen? This is not me saying this. The kind
Speaker 2: of jobs that are going to be applied for people
Speaker 2: and the skills that are needed are going to change.
Speaker 1: What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing
Speaker 1: out far and wide. In just three decades, we've gone
Speaker 1: from dial up modems to nearly every single job in
Speaker 1: America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not
Speaker 1: just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders
Speaker 1: on iPads. Mechanics are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,
Speaker 1: metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even
Speaker 1: our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out
Speaker 1: our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And
Speaker 1: while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some
Speaker 1: phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workflow.
Speaker 2: And what I worry about is that we may very
Speaker 2: well be looking down the road of the situation where
Speaker 2: we have a large percentage of people who are say,
Speaker 2: middle aged, they've been working at their job for a
Speaker 2: decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,
Speaker 2: who one day wake up and find their job's gone.
Speaker 2: They may be taken over by technology, it may have
Speaker 2: been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,
Speaker 2: and they don't have time to go to a four
Speaker 2: year college spend four years retraining. So I think we
Speaker 2: need to start looking at programs that get people retrained
Speaker 2: in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need
Speaker 2: to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs
Speaker 2: for people. So I think I think the rapidity and
Speaker 2: what skills are going to are going to change will
Speaker 2: require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.
Speaker 1: So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to
Speaker 1: have to get clever about education and retraining. From the
Speaker 1: returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans
Speaker 1: are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in
Speaker 1: their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an
Speaker 1: economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.
Speaker 1: So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems
Speaker 1: to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have
Speaker 1: a recession? And his response was.
Speaker 2: I'm in the camp that I think we will toward
Speaker 2: the end of the year.
Speaker 1: But before you get too concerned, he added some very
Speaker 1: interesting caveats.
Speaker 2: So there's one idea that economists that have been batting
Speaker 2: around sort of in the background here is that if
Speaker 2: we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not
Speaker 2: layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minyl
Speaker 2: because they can cut their labor CAUs by simply cutting
Speaker 2: the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,
Speaker 2: even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment
Speaker 2: rate would go up to five percent and five percent
Speaker 2: of employment. Now, no, I don't want anyone listening to
Speaker 2: think that I don't care about unemployed people. I do.
Speaker 2: My father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple
Speaker 2: of times, always every year, and I remember living through that.
Speaker 2: But if five percent of unemployment when I was engraved
Speaker 2: with school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment.
Speaker 2: And so if we get to five percent employment and
Speaker 2: that's the worst during what I think will be an
Speaker 2: upcoming recession, that would be great. So fingers crossed. If
Speaker 2: we do have a recession, I think there'll be best
Speaker 2: case scenario, there'll be no negative impact on the job market.
Speaker 2: But if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on
Speaker 2: the job market, and then we'll get back. And then
Speaker 2: the other thing. The other thing the companies are remembering
Speaker 2: is they had to work hard to get the people
Speaker 2: they have because it's so competitive, and so a lot
Speaker 2: of companies are reluctant to let people go because they're
Speaker 2: worried they can't get him back when times get back
Speaker 2: to normal and the economy blooms again.
Speaker 1: Only time will tell how things play out, but I
Speaker 1: hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and
Speaker 1: things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday
Speaker 1: pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue
Speaker 1: to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up
Speaker 1: our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his
Speaker 1: office a long row of baseball caps, all of them
Speaker 1: bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you
Speaker 1: know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you
Speaker 1: have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.
Speaker 2: My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think
Speaker 2: they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always
Speaker 2: optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking
Speaker 2: for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,
Speaker 2: but at least being competitive.
Speaker 1: So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right
Speaker 1: and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on
Speaker 1: the job, I'm Avery Thompson, I'll see you down the road.