WEBVTT - Now's The Time

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to On the Job. As you might be noticing

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<v Speaker 1>if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back

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<v Speaker 1>in season three when I told my story A Brush

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<v Speaker 1>with Fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to

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<v Speaker 1>take the wheel for our whole new season of On

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<v Speaker 1>the Job, our seventh in fact, So over the next

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<v Speaker 1>eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally

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<v Speaker 1>folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there

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<v Speaker 1>doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,

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<v Speaker 1>On the Job is on the move, so come along

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<v Speaker 1>for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition

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<v Speaker 1>here at On the Job to start the season by

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<v Speaker 1>speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand

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<v Speaker 1>the current state of our labor market. So to kick

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<v Speaker 1>things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina

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<v Speaker 1>to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of

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<v Speaker 1>North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty

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<v Speaker 1>years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,

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<v Speaker 1>an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved

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<v Speaker 1>to know that I chose a person that understands your

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<v Speaker 1>apprehension and has made it his life's work to help

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<v Speaker 1>people get over that econ phobia.

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<v Speaker 2>Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my

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<v Speaker 2>life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.

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<v Speaker 2>And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at

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<v Speaker 2>some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off

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<v Speaker 2>the podium and go on go to the next level,

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<v Speaker 2>because I do love talking about and explain the economics

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<v Speaker 2>to people.

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<v Speaker 1>You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right.

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<v Speaker 1>That's right, And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden

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<v Speaker 1>actually thinks economics can be thrilling.

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<v Speaker 2>Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three

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<v Speaker 2>economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh, because that's usually reaction I

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<v Speaker 2>get because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't go together.

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<v Speaker 2>But I was motivated to that by, quite frankly, the

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<v Speaker 2>economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I

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<v Speaker 2>felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I

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<v Speaker 2>could write something that would teach them economics but would

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<v Speaker 2>be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,

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<v Speaker 2>my wife and I actually wrote three, one on macroeconomics,

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<v Speaker 2>one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and

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<v Speaker 2>students love them.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you're looking for an exciting summer read, we'll

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<v Speaker 1>have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.

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<v Speaker 1>In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current

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<v Speaker 1>state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the

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<v Speaker 1>hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a

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<v Speaker 1>quick Google search and I see that the unemployment rate

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<v Speaker 1>is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip

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<v Speaker 2>roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the

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<v Speaker 2>pandemic hit and we economists knew that that was going

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<v Speaker 2>to cause a recession, and it did. We had an

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<v Speaker 2>unemployment rate in March I believe March or April of

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty and fourteen percent, highest since the so called

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<v Speaker 2>Great Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began

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<v Speaker 2>to open up, which happened at the end of May,

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<v Speaker 2>and once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money

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<v Speaker 2>in the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we

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<v Speaker 2>got back to pre levels of at least production within

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<v Speaker 2>another quarter, and we've been growing since, and we're actually

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<v Speaker 2>now in an economy that's beyond where it was pre

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<v Speaker 2>pandemic in terms of production, also in terms of employment.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we can all agree that a low unemployment

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<v Speaker 1>rate is a good thing, but I have to admit

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<v Speaker 1>that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out

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<v Speaker 1>in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three

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<v Speaker 1>point four percent, does that mean that there are no

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<v Speaker 1>jobs availed for someone looking or are there lots of

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<v Speaker 1>jobs that we just can't keep filled? Oh?

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<v Speaker 2>No, there right now. A lot of people heard this

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<v Speaker 2>and recently that there were two jobs available for every

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<v Speaker 2>person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better as about

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<v Speaker 2>one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.

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<v Speaker 2>Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one

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<v Speaker 2>point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.

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<v Speaker 1>But doctor Wolden explained the types of jobs that are

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<v Speaker 1>widely available are different from those that we might have

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<v Speaker 1>seen one or two years ago, because as the world

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<v Speaker 1>returns to some sort of post pandemic, normal Americans are

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<v Speaker 1>once again craving community. We want to hang out at

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<v Speaker 1>bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue vacation.

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<v Speaker 1>And therefore the jobs market, those now hiring signs we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.

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<v Speaker 2>If you look at the latest job of report we

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<v Speaker 2>had for the nation, which came out well January, it

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<v Speaker 2>was a very robust report. What we saw is a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs,

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<v Speaker 2>exactly the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And

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<v Speaker 2>I think what's happened here is the tech sector is

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<v Speaker 2>slowing down. So I think that this makes sense to

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<v Speaker 2>me that as a tech sector shed some people, those people,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to

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<v Speaker 2>go back at least for a while, and maybe those

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<v Speaker 2>jobs that I left.

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<v Speaker 1>Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs

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<v Speaker 1>available for every job seeker, doctor Waldon suggests that we

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<v Speaker 1>shouldn't get too comfortable. Employers have a special trick up

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<v Speaker 1>their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should

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<v Speaker 1>all be careful about.

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<v Speaker 2>One thing we're going to see more of to deal

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<v Speaker 2>broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually

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<v Speaker 2>feared a decade ago, and that is technology.

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<v Speaker 1>In other words robots, well, also automation and AI, but yes,

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<v Speaker 1>also robots.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think some of those technologies have been developed,

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<v Speaker 2>they may hit at just the right time.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive

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<v Speaker 1>tasks that are at risk of being replaced.

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<v Speaker 2>Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being

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<v Speaker 2>developed and then there's some scary things about that, but

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<v Speaker 2>that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think we should get too set in thinking

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<v Speaker 2>that all this labor shortage is going to go on.

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<v Speaker 2>I do think eventually we're going to see a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of this technology come in and be used by businesses.

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<v Speaker 2>So I still think people need to worry about getting

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<v Speaker 2>the skills that they need to get in order to

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<v Speaker 2>get the job they want, and just don't be setting

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<v Speaker 2>back and saying, oh, I can get a job anytime

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<v Speaker 2>I want, because there's so many jobs deal I think

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<v Speaker 2>eventually it'll change.

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<v Speaker 1>So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, folks, strike

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<v Speaker 1>while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 3>A strong work ethic takes pride in a job well done.

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<v Speaker 3>understand how critical it is to manage your business for

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<v Speaker 3>fit changing demands. Express knows Jobs. Get to know Express.

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<v Speaker 1>We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who

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<v Speaker 1>is just reflecting on a very strong post pandemic labor

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<v Speaker 1>market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even

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<v Speaker 1>in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.

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<v Speaker 2>We are probably in an era where what business is

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<v Speaker 2>want and the skills that are needed are changing more

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<v Speaker 2>rapidly than any time before. And I think, what's going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen? This is not me saying this. The kind

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<v Speaker 2>of jobs that are going to be applied for people

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<v Speaker 2>and the skills that are needed are going to change.

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<v Speaker 1>What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing

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<v Speaker 1>out far and wide. In just three decades, we've gone

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<v Speaker 1>from dial up modems to nearly every single job in

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<v Speaker 1>America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not

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<v Speaker 1>just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders

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<v Speaker 1>on iPads. Mechanics are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,

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<v Speaker 1>metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even

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<v Speaker 1>our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out

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<v Speaker 1>our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And

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<v Speaker 1>while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some

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<v Speaker 1>phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workflow.

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<v Speaker 2>And what I worry about is that we may very

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<v Speaker 2>well be looking down the road of the situation where

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<v Speaker 2>we have a large percentage of people who are say,

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<v Speaker 2>middle aged, they've been working at their job for a

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<v Speaker 2>decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,

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<v Speaker 2>who one day wake up and find their job's gone.

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<v Speaker 2>They may be taken over by technology, it may have

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<v Speaker 2>been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,

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<v Speaker 2>and they don't have time to go to a four

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<v Speaker 2>year college spend four years retraining. So I think we

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<v Speaker 2>need to start looking at programs that get people retrained

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<v Speaker 2>in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need

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<v Speaker 2>to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs

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<v Speaker 2>for people. So I think I think the rapidity and

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<v Speaker 2>what skills are going to are going to change will

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<v Speaker 2>require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.

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<v Speaker 1>So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>have to get clever about education and retraining. From the

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<v Speaker 1>returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans

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<v Speaker 1>are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in

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<v Speaker 1>their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 1>fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an

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<v Speaker 1>economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.

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<v Speaker 1>So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have

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<v Speaker 1>a recession? And his response was.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm in the camp that I think we will toward

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<v Speaker 2>the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>But before you get too concerned, he added some very

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<v Speaker 1>interesting caveats.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's one idea that economists that have been batting

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<v Speaker 2>around sort of in the background here is that if

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<v Speaker 2>we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not

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<v Speaker 2>layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minyl

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<v Speaker 2>because they can cut their labor CAUs by simply cutting

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<v Speaker 2>the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,

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<v Speaker 2>even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment

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<v Speaker 2>rate would go up to five percent and five percent

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<v Speaker 2>of employment. Now, no, I don't want anyone listening to

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<v Speaker 2>think that I don't care about unemployed people. I do.

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<v Speaker 2>My father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple

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<v Speaker 2>of times, always every year, and I remember living through that.

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<v Speaker 2>But if five percent of unemployment when I was engraved

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<v Speaker 2>with school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment.

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<v Speaker 2>And so if we get to five percent employment and

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<v Speaker 2>that's the worst during what I think will be an

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<v Speaker 2>upcoming recession, that would be great. So fingers crossed. If

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<v Speaker 2>we do have a recession, I think there'll be best

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<v Speaker 2>case scenario, there'll be no negative impact on the job market.

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<v Speaker 2>But if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on

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<v Speaker 2>the job market, and then we'll get back. And then

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<v Speaker 2>the other thing. The other thing the companies are remembering

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<v Speaker 2>is they had to work hard to get the people

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<v Speaker 2>they have because it's so competitive, and so a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of companies are reluctant to let people go because they're

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<v Speaker 2>worried they can't get him back when times get back

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<v Speaker 2>to normal and the economy blooms again.

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<v Speaker 1>Only time will tell how things play out, but I

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<v Speaker 1>hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and

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<v Speaker 1>things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday

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<v Speaker 1>pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue

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<v Speaker 1>to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up

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<v Speaker 1>our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his

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<v Speaker 1>office a long row of baseball caps, all of them

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<v Speaker 1>bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you

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<v Speaker 1>know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you

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<v Speaker 1>have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.

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<v Speaker 2>My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think

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<v Speaker 2>they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always

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<v Speaker 2>optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking

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<v Speaker 2>for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,

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<v Speaker 2>but at least being competitive.

0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 1>So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook

0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:13.840
<v Speaker 1>with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right

0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:18.280
<v Speaker 1>and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on

0:13:18.360 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 1>the job, I'm Avery Thompson, I'll see you down the road.