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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot com, the Radio plus mobile app and on your radio.

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karin Moscow.

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Speaker 1: There's updates Bronzy. You buy eisener Amper. When entrepreneurs faced

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Speaker 1: challenges like choosing a business structure or access to capital,

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Speaker 1: they call the accountants and advisers at Eisner Amper connect

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Speaker 1: with them Eisner Amper dot com, slash tech. The dollar

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Speaker 1: sinking to a five month low, commodities gaining with emerging markets,

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Speaker 1: and government vaunts advancing as central banks from the US

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Speaker 1: to Norway indicated a willingness to keep monetary policy accommodative.

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Speaker 1: US DOT Index futures are lower as our shares in

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Speaker 1: Europe SNP eveny futures down eight points down, EMUNI futures

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Speaker 1: down sixty three, NASDAC emuny futures down twenty two. The

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Speaker 1: decks in Germany's down one point eight percent ten your

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Speaker 1: treasury up ten thirty seconds they pen point eight seven percent.

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Speaker 1: Nimax scret oil at one point four per cent or

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Speaker 1: fifty two cents to thirty ninety a barrel, and Comax

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Speaker 1: schoold is down three point three per cent, or four

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Speaker 1: eighty dollars ninety cents to twelve seventies seventy announced the

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Speaker 1: euro A dollar thirteen nineteen again one ten eight five.

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Speaker 1: Caterpillar shares down three percent this morning, the biggest maker

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Speaker 1: of construction and mining machinery, saying first quarter sales and

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Speaker 1: profit will trail analysts estimates amid a deepening commodity price slump.

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Speaker 1: Mondale International down more than two percent after Pershing Square Holdings,

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Speaker 1: that publicly traded security of Bill Ackman's activist hedge fund

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Speaker 1: cut its steak and FedEx up five percent after raising

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Speaker 1: the bottom of its full year earnings forecast range. And

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Speaker 1: that's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Carosia, thank

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Speaker 1: you very much. Um. If you're going to react to

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Speaker 1: the FED, or you're gonna react I guess to any

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Speaker 1: of the corporate news out todaytime you gotta do it

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Speaker 1: before noon when the n C Double A Tournament kicks

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Speaker 1: off March madness, and everybody on wall streets will be

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Speaker 1: watching the games, probably paying a little bit less attention

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Speaker 1: to their Bloomberg screens. Who who do you have? You're

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Speaker 1: you're partnered up with with Franz Lackawa. Who do you

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Speaker 1: happens my annual mistake? I try to find someone. The

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Speaker 1: good news is Francine Laqua, by definition over in London's

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Speaker 1: smarter than me on the brackets. She was adamant that

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Speaker 1: we go with blue uniforms, so we've done that. In

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Speaker 1: my end result, which there was I think like forty

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Speaker 1: years ago, I actually got two of the final four,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina beating Kansas, Michigan skate Michigan State and Oregon

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Speaker 1: show up for the sare. Francine was adamant that we

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Speaker 1: picked Iowa State in Utah, except I figured out five

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Speaker 1: minutes in the conversation that she thought Utah was a

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Speaker 1: city and not is a good team. I've gotta go

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Speaker 1: with Purdue because our executive producer is from Purdue. They

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Speaker 1: get crushed by Duke and that's about his knowledge is like,

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Speaker 1: well I did, We're not that all far part. I

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Speaker 1: do have North Carolina losing to Kansas in the end.

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Speaker 1: I don't know where George Freeman is on the whole thing,

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Speaker 1: Geo Political Futures founder and chairman. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: it's a threat to world security or not. The fact

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Speaker 1: that all of America's gonna be paying attention to college

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Speaker 1: basketball for the next few days. Charge I was just

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Speaker 1: too complicated for me. I could never figure it out.

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Speaker 1: I still can't figure out how basketball has played well.

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Speaker 1: You know, I see Texas playing Northern Iowa in Texas, say,

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Speaker 1: and M plays Green Bay, setting us up for a

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Speaker 1: Texas Texas A and M second round affair. That'll be

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Speaker 1: a civil war down here. That will be a civil war.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they'll seceed. Or that would be like Thanksgiving Day

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Speaker 1: with the Cadets and Hullebalu can Canuck and all that.

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Speaker 1: George Friedman with us uh in Texas? Uh? Would you

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Speaker 1: have political futures we need badly? George? An update on

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Speaker 1: Mr Putin. I mean, I'm very concerned about Mr Putin,

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Speaker 1: except we all were a year ago, eighteen months ago,

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Speaker 1: and with everything else, he sort of drifted away. Give

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Speaker 1: us a Putin update right now. Well, he did a

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Speaker 1: pretty brilliant job in Syria. One of the things he

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Speaker 1: did did nobody realizes is he saved Obama's bacon. He

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Speaker 1: saved Obama's bacon because the United States wanted a side

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Speaker 1: to fall, but not now, because we couldn't afford to

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Speaker 1: have him fall and then Isis potentially take over Damascus.

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Speaker 1: On the other hand, we couldn't descend Asade for political reasons.

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Speaker 1: He came in, he protected Asad, He sort of stabilized

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Speaker 1: the situation. We don't have to deal with a sad

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Speaker 1: Then he left. Now, what Putin has done has set

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Speaker 1: this up. Look, I helped you out in Syria, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: there was a lot of cooperation on the ground because

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Speaker 1: you can't cary out air strikes without collaborating. At least

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Speaker 1: nowhere these guys going. Now, let's talk Ukraine. Let's find

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Speaker 1: a settlement Ukraine, get rid of the sanctions. And it

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Speaker 1: was brilliant, But underneath it, he's sitting in the volcano.

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Speaker 1: Oil prices are crushing the Russians. There's no way around

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Speaker 1: that fact. And no matter how brilliant is maneuvering is

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Speaker 1: in Syria or even in Ukraine, it's not going to

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Speaker 1: save him. He has serious problems. The psychology of the Russians, though,

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Speaker 1: doesn't that play to his advantage, the belief that things

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Speaker 1: are always going to be bad, because there doesn't seem

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Speaker 1: to be any erosion in his public support. Well in

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Speaker 1: the United States, when wars begin there's tremendous enthusiasm. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Marri Desert Storm and support for a Bush. Russia is

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Speaker 1: no different. But it is absolutely true that the Russians

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Speaker 1: have been Joe politically very effective in spite of a

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Speaker 1: bad economy. There's a kind of belief in the West

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Speaker 1: that they be effective. You have to have a good economy.

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Speaker 1: They won World War Two with terrible economy. They were

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Speaker 1: went through the Cold War mostly with a terrible economy.

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Speaker 1: They've always had a terrible economy and yet they're great power.

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Speaker 1: So you have to be very careful about you know

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Speaker 1: what the breakpoint is for the Russians oil. These prices

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Speaker 1: are pretty close to that breakpoint. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: tought to maintain that popularity next six months a year,

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Speaker 1: and then what would happen, Well, what happens is that

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Speaker 1: you either increase the progression at home or there are

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Speaker 1: other factions inside of the Kremlin that may want to

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Speaker 1: push him aside and try other policies. You really have

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Speaker 1: to remember that while we think of Putin as a dictator,

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Speaker 1: the soul dictator, in fact he's not. He is a leader,

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Speaker 1: he's very powerful, but he had ignos him give us

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Speaker 1: an update on his his wealth if you will. I

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Speaker 1: mean that from a national standpoint, do you have any

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Speaker 1: understanding of the quality of his reserves and the dynamics

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Speaker 1: of those reserves given the price of oil, they're said

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Speaker 1: to be about two and a half years. That'll go

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Speaker 1: go from But you don't go to two and a

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Speaker 1: half years, and suddenly for low Cliff, everybody knows that

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Speaker 1: a half years and everybody knows that they're going to

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Speaker 1: be running around and he's cutting now, and he's cutting

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Speaker 1: you know the kind of services they have to cut

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Speaker 1: that's gonna get home. I want to switch if we can,

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Speaker 1: as we go to Wisconsin April five, to a discussion

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Speaker 1: of the foreign policy you've heard in our great political derby.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Secretary Clinton. She's I guess the easiest.

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Speaker 1: But is there a Clinton doctrine and is it distinctive

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Speaker 1: from the President's doctrine? Um. The president's doctrine is pretty clear.

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Speaker 1: It is we do not send our forces first into

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Speaker 1: wars we can't win. And second, we try to get

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Speaker 1: alies in the region the Middle East, for example, we

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Speaker 1: try to get the Turks, the Iranians, who in this

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Speaker 1: sense are on our side because they oppose the same

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Speaker 1: people we oppose Saudi Arabia and potentially Israel. So his

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Speaker 1: doctrine is pretty much the idea that going in first

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Speaker 1: is a way to lose wars. Clinton I don't think

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Speaker 1: has a doctrine. She's primarily opportunistic, one eye on domestic

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Speaker 1: politics where presidents I should be, and another eye very

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Speaker 1: much focused in on the tactics. I don't think she

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Speaker 1: has a long term plan. Let me switch to the

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Speaker 1: other side of the political aisle. This is fascinating. The

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Speaker 1: Economists ranks its top ten global threats, and their list

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Speaker 1: is pretty similar to what we've been talking about here China, Russia.

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Speaker 1: But they put Donald Trump winning the U s presidential

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Speaker 1: election on their list of top ten global threats. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's they're very silly people. Look, the American president is

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Speaker 1: not powerful. He doesn't do anything unilaterally. Let's assume Trump won.

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Speaker 1: He would have a Congress with all the people who

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Speaker 1: are now mobilizing both parties to try to stop him

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Speaker 1: in the same way as Obama couldn't get anything through Congress.

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Speaker 1: All the things that Trump says he's going to do,

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Speaker 1: he can't do in the worst case scenario. Are founders

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Speaker 1: create a situation to paralyze him. But also remember that

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Speaker 1: Trump is not a stupid man. Trump has touched a

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Speaker 1: nerve in American politics. He's going to use it. The

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Speaker 1: problem is that nerve isn't large enough to win. So

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Speaker 1: he moves into the general election, he either expands his

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Speaker 1: base by behaving more like an ordin or any candidate,

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Speaker 1: or he's not gonna win. So there are so many

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Speaker 1: hurdles there. But again, you know the economist. The thing

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Speaker 1: about Trump is it's great to make him appear to

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Speaker 1: be this terrible monster. He's a very strange man. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't vote for him, but the idea that he represents

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Speaker 1: a threat to the global stability is sells magazines, I guess.

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Speaker 1: George Freeman, thank you very much. The level of cynicism

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Speaker 1: coming out of Mr Freedman this morning was was incalculable. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it must because Texas, Texas A and M could be

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Speaker 1: the Western Texas, Texas A and M basketball. George Freedman,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Greatly appreciate geopolitical futures, Mike, help

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Speaker 1: me here with currency movements. I'm looking at yeah, one

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Speaker 1: ten ninety. To be clear here, we're not looking for

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Speaker 1: unilateral intervention. But that is, as they would say, across

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Speaker 1: the pond, you'd be gobsmacked by that kind of number,

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Speaker 1: which we may be. In three minutes, we're going to

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Speaker 1: get the Bank of England, and we have a distinguished

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Speaker 1: guest who is going to break it all down for us.

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Speaker 1: We've imported. He's our line hide from Bloomberg London. Oh,

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Speaker 1: is that why she's here, Well, it's not because she

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Speaker 1: wants her She goes, let's go to the plaza for

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Speaker 1: cocktails that I go. We need a poll vall to

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Speaker 1: get across Fifth Avenue because the fifth Avenue to celebrate

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Speaker 1: take all. Right, Well, coming up in just a moment,

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Speaker 1: we're going to get three minutes, we're going to get

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Speaker 1: the Bank of England decision. Mark Harney will be out

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Speaker 1: and Caroline Hyde will help us break it all down

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg surveillance