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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host Seawan Zerrilla Joint today by Billy Ward

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Speaker 2: to help you break down a twelve fight card for

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Speaker 2: UFC three point fifteen going down in Montreal, Quebec, Canada

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Speaker 2: on Saturday Night.

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Speaker 3: Two title fights on the card.

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Speaker 2: The main event walterweight title bout between Balal Muhammad and

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Speaker 2: Jack Della Medalena Della about plus one sixty on the

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Speaker 2: money line. Blal around minus one eighty has come down,

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Speaker 2: though Jack was previously closer to plus two hundred. This

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Speaker 2: fight is minus one sixty to go to a decision

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Speaker 2: and plus one twenty five to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 2: Billy is thinking about a bunch about this fight this week.

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Speaker 2: The fight that jumped off to me jumped to me

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Speaker 2: off the page as the most similar comparison.

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Speaker 3: This is gonna be a little awkward.

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Speaker 2: It's also gonna be a little funny because it's another

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Speaker 2: fighter from Perth. This reminded me a little bit of

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Speaker 2: the Steve urseg Alexander Pintosia fight, not exactly in terms

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Speaker 2: of the stylistic nature of Balal versus Pantosia, but the

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Speaker 2: relative boxing of Jack Della, the damage he's expected to

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Speaker 2: put on against the grappling control of Balal, the way

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Speaker 2: it just may play out stylistically. Ballall like Pantosia extremely durable,

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Speaker 2: Jack Della like Ersa going into that fight not really

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Speaker 2: tested over five rounds. So I think Jack clearly the

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Speaker 2: better boxer at distance, Belaw the better kicker. Balaal obviously

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Speaker 2: has more grappling upside, and I think from Blall's perspective

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Speaker 2: relative to the other guys, Jack has fought blow just

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Speaker 2: a little bit more conservative in terms of advancing position

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Speaker 2: once he actually has control of guys, not aggressively pursuing submissions,

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Speaker 2: not necessarily leveraging up for ground and pound. He does

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Speaker 2: prioritize control over submission, position over submission once he actually

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Speaker 2: has control of opponents. We've seen Jacket take it down

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Speaker 2: a bunch, but he's been very good at scrambling out

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Speaker 2: from bottom against people. I believe he got taken out

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Speaker 2: four times on twenty attempts by the Basil Hafes. We

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Speaker 2: bet hefes as a plus four hundred underdoger. So in

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Speaker 2: that fight, I think it went to split decision. Hindsight,

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Speaker 2: Jack probably ended up the serving his decision, but Hefes

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Speaker 2: did certainly outfight his money line number in that matchup,

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Speaker 2: and you know, it showed that Jack can have problems

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Speaker 2: with guys.

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Speaker 3: Who proactively grapple.

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Speaker 2: So all of that said, I do think the biggest

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Speaker 2: factor here, and the thing that I landed on in

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Speaker 2: terms of siding with the underdog, is the age differential.

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Speaker 2: Della Madalena eight years younger than balal We have the

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Speaker 2: stat about fighters older than thirty five and how they

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Speaker 2: performed generally in title bouts, and I do think taking

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Speaker 2: the youth advantage from a long term perspective at plus money,

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Speaker 2: probably decided to go with I think Balllall has a

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Speaker 2: ton of success in this fight. I think it is

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Speaker 2: close and competitive. I think it likely goes to a

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Speaker 2: competitive decision that one of them wins three to two.

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Speaker 2: You're on the other side of this matchup, You're gonna

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Speaker 2: take Ballall. I'm not like confidently betting Jack here. I

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Speaker 2: made the line about plus one fifty. The best available

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Speaker 2: price is plus one sixty. We're both curious to see

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Speaker 2: where this line goes relative to where it was now, because,

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Speaker 2: as I said, the line came in, Jack was closer

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Speaker 2: to plus two hundred, Blaw was closer to minus two

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Speaker 2: twenty five. It's pushed in closer together. You seem to

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Speaker 2: think it's going to continue to push in and Jack's

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Speaker 2: going to become a shorter priced underdog and you might

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Speaker 2: be able to get Ballall at a better number. So

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Speaker 2: where do you think it closes? Where are you interested

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Speaker 2: in betting Ballall? And then how do you view the fight.

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Speaker 2: I'm probably waiting. I want plus one sixty or better

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Speaker 2: about Jack. I'm going to see if it goes up

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Speaker 2: from here. So what are you doing with the line

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Speaker 2: where it is right now?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not I wouldn't say I think it's going

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Speaker 4: to get better for Ballall. I'd say I'm optimistic it does.

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Speaker 4: He's just he's one of the more unpopular champions we've

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Speaker 4: had in the UFC for a long time, and that

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Speaker 4: is partially because of what you mentioned. His fighting style,

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Speaker 4: which is extremely smart, like it's the optimal path to

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Speaker 4: win a fight, but it's also not the most exciting

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Speaker 4: because he doesn't create any opportunities for his opponents to

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Speaker 4: do anything to him much less, you know, or for

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Speaker 4: him to really get too close to finishing too many fights.

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Speaker 4: Other than that time he just starts Sean Brady that,

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Speaker 4: like we all seem to forget about, his boxing has

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Speaker 4: gotten better. You know, Brady is a tough guy, even striking,

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Speaker 4: and Blall made him look real bad. And of course

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Speaker 4: the other half of that is like Blall's politics and

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Speaker 4: all that, I think are not the most popular amongst

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Speaker 4: the UFC betting fan base, which exerts some pressure people

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Speaker 4: want to bet against him. All of that stuff I

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Speaker 4: think right now, like if the fight were starting in

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Speaker 4: five minutes, I'd probably just suck it up and take

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Speaker 4: the minus one to eighty m the law. I think

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Speaker 4: the wrestling edge is too big for Della Madeleine to overcome.

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Speaker 4: You know, not only did he Fez take him down

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Speaker 4: three times, and I thought that should have been a draw.

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Speaker 4: I thought it should have been a ten eight first

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Speaker 4: round for her fees the next two for Jack. But

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Speaker 4: you know, I'm okay with where it ended. Gilbert Burns

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Speaker 4: took him down seven times and was up two rounds

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Speaker 4: to nothing until Madelina knocked him out in the third round.

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Speaker 4: Like he was definitely losing that fight, and that was

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Speaker 4: his only non split decision win of his last three fights.

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Speaker 4: So like he has fought lesser competition much closer. He

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Speaker 4: got outstruck by Kevin Holland by the numbers, like he

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Speaker 4: gave up more damage than he took Della Maddelina, the

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Speaker 4: more impactful shots. I'm fine with that decision too, but

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Speaker 4: these have been close and Belal is a step ahead

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Speaker 4: of these guys with just a bad stylistic matchup.

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Speaker 5: So you know, long.

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Speaker 4: Story short, if I had to take the minus one

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Speaker 4: to eighty on ballall I think I do. If I

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Speaker 4: see minus one seventy or better, I'm probably jumping on

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Speaker 4: that at any point. Otherwise, I'm kind of waiting until

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Speaker 4: closer to the fight time. I think we still see

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Speaker 4: action on Jack Dela matt Alena. I'd have to think

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Speaker 4: a little bit about how these time zones work and

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Speaker 4: when the Australian audience is going to be betting their guy,

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Speaker 4: because I can't figure that out talking live, but you know,

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Speaker 4: you talk about it with Asian fighters. It's a similar

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Speaker 4: effect where when those guys get up on fight day,

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Speaker 4: it's the timing is a little bit weird. They push

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Speaker 4: overseas markets, that pushes domestic market. I think that'll probably

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Speaker 4: be an impact too, because a lot of those guys

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Speaker 4: are gonna want to bet on Medelina. Also, you mentioned

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Speaker 4: the over thirty five curse, and you you've failed to

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Speaker 4: mention that it's been broken. Alexander Volkanowski has rendered that

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Speaker 4: absolute no plus thirty five year olds whenever loose again

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Speaker 4: because of Alexander Volkanowski. So ding Dong the witch is said,

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Speaker 4: it's fine, we can bet old guys now.

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Speaker 2: It's about it's eleven twenty their twelve hour difference. Eleven

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Speaker 2: twenty pm right now is a recording in Australia relative

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Speaker 2: to hear so by the time Wayans roll around tomorrow

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Speaker 2: morning Friday morning, I think that's where maybe the final

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Speaker 2: line movement comes in post Wayans once he's Once these

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Speaker 2: guys both hit the scale, I neglected to mention this

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Speaker 2: is Jack's first five round test, which is super key.

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Speaker 2: I think the youth, you know, gives me some alleviate

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Speaker 2: some concerns that I have regarding that. He's also looked

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Speaker 2: fine near the end of his three round fights, you know,

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Speaker 2: the Fes fight, he was rallying late the Burns fight,

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Speaker 2: he looked super fresh in between rounds two and three,

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Speaker 2: despite getting taken down repeatedly. So I actually think his

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Speaker 2: cardio is gonna hold up fine over five rounds. But

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Speaker 2: certainly worth noting that the Wall is the one with

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Speaker 2: the five round experience, knows how to manage his gas tank,

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Speaker 2: is on a bunch of supplements, looks very physically strong

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Speaker 2: and athletic for a thirty five year old. Ah, But

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Speaker 2: I do want to mention, you know, Jack's power has

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Speaker 2: just kind of been sneaky the entire time he's run

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Speaker 2: up the weltherweight ladder. The shot he hit Randy Brown

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Speaker 2: with like even Brown was surprised at how much power

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Speaker 2: that had on it really stunned him. So I do

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Speaker 2: think his boxing is very sharp and I think he

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Speaker 2: has sneaky power. I also love the way he mixes

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Speaker 2: to the body in the head as well. His his

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Speaker 2: combinations are very crisp, So you know, overall, I think

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Speaker 2: he's going to do the more eye catching things for judges,

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Speaker 2: and I do think if they're standing at range for

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Speaker 2: the majority of this fight, he's likely to win it.

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Speaker 2: That's not to say that Ballall can't strike Ballall kicks

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Speaker 2: really well, but I think Jack's punches compared to Ballall's kicks,

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Speaker 2: are going to wait a little bit more heavily. It's

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Speaker 2: really going to come down to how often Ballall gets

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Speaker 2: the takedowns and how long he's able to hold those positions,

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Speaker 2: and whether the judges prefer that control time to whatever

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Speaker 2: damage Jack is putting on the feet. Again, I think

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Speaker 2: the law is going to be extremely competitive in the striking.

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Speaker 2: Just prefer Jack ever so slightly on the head strikes

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Speaker 2: compared to the leg kicks. You have gotten back and

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Speaker 2: forth a bunch on analyzing you. You had more thoughts here,

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Speaker 2: Bially no.

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Speaker 5: I just say you haven't our sheet.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if you mentioned it, but JDM by

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Speaker 4: knockout at plus three fifty, I think if you're gonna

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Speaker 4: I think, if you're gonna bet him, you almost have

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Speaker 4: to do that. Just I don't Ballall is going to

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Speaker 4: find a way to win rounds. He's like the better strategist.

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Speaker 4: He'll win around just holding you against the fence and

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Speaker 4: punching you to the body a bunch of times, and

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Speaker 4: nobody likes to give him those rounds.

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Speaker 5: But if the other guy doesn't do anything you kind

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Speaker 5: of have to.

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Speaker 4: So I actually really like that angle that you put

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Speaker 4: in there, And honestly, I think I might be more

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Speaker 4: optimistic about madeline A's striking advantage than you are. I

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Speaker 4: just don't think we get to see too much of it.

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Speaker 5: So go ahead and yell pro.

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Speaker 2: Directed value on the ends inside the distance. I really

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Speaker 2: don't get ballall a ton of finishing upside. I think

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Speaker 2: I made it like plus one oh five to end

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Speaker 2: inside the distance, so you can get plus one thirty

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Speaker 2: out there. I'd rather just take jack either inside the

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Speaker 2: distance or by KO. I made that closer to plus

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Speaker 2: two fifty. You can get plus three fifty. He does

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Speaker 2: have that club and sub win on his record, so

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Speaker 2: it gives me gives me a little bit of pause

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Speaker 2: just taking the KO prop when that inside the distance

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Speaker 2: prop is sitting around plus three two seventy five. So

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Speaker 2: may may take the inside of the distance as compared

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Speaker 2: to the KO, considering already has one club and sub

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Speaker 2: in the UFC. I didn't look at the decision only markets.

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Speaker 2: Is that that's something you looked at.

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Speaker 3: For Bawall at all or not particularly interested.

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Speaker 4: I didn't look because I'm assuming he's like minus seven

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Speaker 4: hundred or something stupid like just don't. I mean, his

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Speaker 4: money line is decision only, like it already is. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: like that's how he's gonna win if he went so.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe Madelina really gets tired in the

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Speaker 4: fourth or fifth or whatever. But if you're bed in Balall,

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Speaker 4: it's straight up I think you're just not getting better

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Speaker 4: prices on anything that seems reasonable for me. It's Balal

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Speaker 4: decision or Madeleina knockout or finished. I don't think even

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Speaker 4: if he clubs, somebody's gonna sub him. Bala is a

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Speaker 4: very very good grappler, but when the prices are that close, sure,

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Speaker 4: you know, like you're not giving you're not giving up

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Speaker 4: that much to cover your basis. So I'm good with

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Speaker 4: either of those, but I wouldn't I wouldn't worry about

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Speaker 4: the decision only.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, belas minus five twenty five in the decision only market,

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Speaker 2: jack minus one seventy five in the finish only market.

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Speaker 2: Both of those seem okay to me. Jack plus five

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Speaker 2: and a half is minus one sixty five. I mean

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Speaker 2: a forty eight forty seven, sure, but laying juice on it,

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Speaker 2: not particularly interested, Nor am I really interested in minus

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Speaker 2: five and a half plus one twenty on ballall. I

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Speaker 2: don't like those five and a halfs in these five

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Speaker 2: round fights.

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Speaker 3: It's very goofy. You're kind of relying on the.

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Speaker 2: Forty eight forty seven times too, and then the forty

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Speaker 2: nine to forty six to either cover it or not

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Speaker 2: cover it, which is not all that fun. We'll get

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Speaker 2: to another point spread a little bit that I'm also

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Speaker 2: sketchy about at the three and a half, but I

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Speaker 2: think maybe the best way to get that fight. Let's

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Speaker 2: move on to our fight of the night, Women's Flyway

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Speaker 2: title bat between Valentina Chevchenko and manone Fioro. Fioro currently

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Speaker 2: the favorite at about minus one twenty five. Valentina plus money,

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Speaker 2: the goat of this division, seems like would be the

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Speaker 2: obvious side at the plus money price. This fight is

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Speaker 2: minus two to fifty to go to a decision, plus

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Speaker 2: one ninety to end inside the distance. Both of these

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Speaker 2: women are older Valentina thirty seven, a Fioro thirty five,

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Speaker 2: so one of these fighters is going to break or

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Speaker 2: add to the tally of the the fighters older than

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Speaker 2: thirty five in title fights. I don't really know if

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Speaker 2: we can count this one, considering they're both older than

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Speaker 2: thirty five.

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Speaker 3: Now manone much less experience, but also much.

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Speaker 2: Less damage on her body, and I think athletically it's

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Speaker 2: been very obvious that Valentina has been declining in her

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Speaker 2: recent fight. Was able to take down Alexa Grosso repeatedly

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Speaker 2: in her last matchup, but overall the striking volume severely

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Speaker 2: reduced relative earlier in her career, and I think the

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Speaker 2: longer this stays at range, Fioro should eventually pull away

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Speaker 2: on volume. However, Valentina retains the grappling upside. We'll see

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Speaker 2: if she can put Fiorro on bottom and keep her there.

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Speaker 2: Fioro had that five round fight against Aaron Blanchfield where

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Speaker 2: we bet Blanchfield. A lot of people bet Blanfield. She

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Speaker 2: fifty forty five there and looked like the future champion

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Speaker 2: in the process, landed one hundred and seventy significant strikes

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Speaker 2: across that fight, looked extremely physically strong, looked the division

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Speaker 2: bigger than Aaron Blanchfield in that matchup. I do think

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Speaker 2: she's going to look a little bit bigger than Valentina

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Speaker 2: in the cage. The height and reach is relatively similar,

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Speaker 2: but in terms of the overall size of their frames.

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Speaker 2: I think Fioro is going to have a physicality advantage

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Speaker 2: here earlier on that's it. Valentina may be able to

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Speaker 2: put her on the bottom and keep her there, has

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Speaker 2: all of that wrestling upside, But in an extended striking fight,

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Speaker 2: I do prefer Fioro's volume across fifteen or twenty five minutes.

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Speaker 2: In this case, you're on the opposite side of me here,

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Speaker 2: Billy I made Fiora about minus one thirty five, current

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Speaker 2: line about minus one twenty five. You're interested in betting

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Speaker 2: Schifchenko at plus money, but potentially waiting for her later

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Speaker 2: round props. I kind of agree. I think Chefchenko a

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Speaker 2: very strong live bet because Fierro is a fast starter,

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Speaker 2: but Valentin a more five round experience, especially if she

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Speaker 2: doesn't mix in the grappling right away. You know, if

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Speaker 2: they just strike it out from the opening round, Fioro

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Speaker 2: I think is likelier to win it. But then you

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Speaker 2: may get a big, juicy plus money number on Valentina

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Speaker 2: live after round one, So I would imagine your targeting

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Speaker 2: val live, but you certainly like her late props as well.

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Speaker 2: Go ahead and give me your breakdown and tell me

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Speaker 2: your price targets.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the biggest thing is I'm kicking myself

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Speaker 4: for not taking the better price on Valentina earlier in

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Speaker 4: the week. I think we saw as high as plus

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Speaker 4: one thirty five or plus one forty. It's it's an

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Speaker 4: interesting fight because a lot of what you said about

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Speaker 4: manone applies to Valentina as well and every other matchup.

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Speaker 4: Like she's bigger and stronger and more athletic than almost

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Speaker 4: every other woman on the planet, and they've both relied

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Speaker 4: on that pretty heavily. Like Valentina gets a lot of takedowns,

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Speaker 4: but I don't think she's a great technical grappler. Like

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Speaker 4: I'm not saying she's bad, but like she's not doing

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Speaker 4: it because she's hitting these you know, very technical complex

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Speaker 4: chain wrestling.

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Speaker 5: She's doing it because she's bigger and stronger than you.

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Speaker 4: Kind of just picks you up and puts you down,

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Speaker 4: and that's you know, Fioro landed a takedown on Aaron

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Speaker 4: Blanchfield and it wasn't pretty. She kind of just got

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Speaker 4: off to the side and hoisted her up and carried

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Speaker 4: her around a little bit because she was so much

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Speaker 4: bigger and stronger, and in a fight like this, I

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Speaker 4: don't know who's going to have that. You know, like

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Speaker 4: they're both as you mentioned, they're both over thirty five.

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Speaker 5: Stole my thunder.

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Speaker 4: I was about to say my best bet was that,

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Speaker 4: you know, the curse continues to be broken in this fight.

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Speaker 4: But if Valentina is declining athletically, there's no reason.

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Speaker 5: To say Manoan isn't.

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Speaker 4: They're like eighteen months apart in age, there's not there's

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Speaker 4: not a big difference there. And it's one of those

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Speaker 4: like sometimes you see it with really tall where they

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Speaker 4: get matched up with the one dude taller than them

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Speaker 4: in the division, You're like, how is that going to

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Speaker 4: work for him? This is kind of what I'm seeing

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Speaker 4: with this, where it's like, I don't know how either

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Speaker 4: of them are going to respond to not having a

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Speaker 4: massive athleticism edge that they have grown to rely on

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Speaker 4: so much. So long story short, because of that, it

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Speaker 4: was kind of just a if I can get plus

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Speaker 4: money on one side in a fight, I view is

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Speaker 4: very close. I want it, but the big plus money

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Speaker 4: pre fight on Valentina is gone. I like her four

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Speaker 4: or five decision prop, which that's even coming down. It's

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Speaker 4: plus one fifty five now the last time she finished someone.

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Speaker 4: She finished Jessica and Drodge and it's been a while.

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Speaker 4: Taitlan Chuke again like lower level competition, and Drodge shouldn't

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Speaker 4: have been fighting at one twenty five. Che Kegan not

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Speaker 4: that great manon I don't believe has ever been finished,

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Speaker 4: also hasn't finished anyone else.

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Speaker 5: Basically, I think it's gonna go Late.

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Speaker 4: So if I'm betting the Valentina side, I want Valentina

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Speaker 4: and late could also go Valentina by decision, but it's

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Speaker 4: not that much better of her price, and I like

340
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Speaker 4: getting those late stoppages for the person with way more

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Speaker 4: championship round experience. And again, as you pointed out, live

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Speaker 4: is fine too. I just have to do the full

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Speaker 4: fight breakdown of this one. So I don't want to

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Speaker 4: come in with a don't bet this, come out live

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Speaker 4: because that's kind of wimping out. But yeah, that might

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Speaker 4: actually be the best angle. Is Fuero pre fight or

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Speaker 4: Nobody pre fight and then Valentine alive.

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Speaker 2: Yep, that's that's the angle I'm taking. If you're REMNUS

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Speaker 2: one twenty five pre fight best available number, that's roughly

350
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 2: where it opened. It's actually minus one twenty two now

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00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 2: at fandle roughly where it opened. It went up, as

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Speaker 2: you said, as high as Valentina plus one thirty during

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Speaker 2: the week and then came back down back towards the

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Speaker 2: opening number. But yeah, Fierro pre fight money line and

355
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Speaker 2: then live on Shipchenko, how I'm looking to play this

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Speaker 2: one Before we get to your favorite underdogs in the card,

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going right back to the fight we just

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Speaker 4: talked about Manon fierroover's Valentina Chevchenko. What I love about

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00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,440
Speaker 4: Underdog is you can take both sides of a fight

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00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 4: and make a pick for each person in that matchup.

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00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 4: So I like Manan Fierro lower than eighty seven point

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00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 4: five significant strikes. If she lands eighty eight significant strikes

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00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,879
Speaker 4: on Valentina Chevchenko, she will be the first person to

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00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 4: ever do so. Valentina Chevchenko has never received that many strikes.

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00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,359
Speaker 4: And then to that, I'm adding Valenteeve Chevchenko higher than

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00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,840
Speaker 4: fifty one point five to five fantasy points. If you're

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00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 4: a was getting limited in terms of how many strikes

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Speaker 4: she's landing, it's probably because Valentino is getting some takedowns,

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Speaker 4: From Underdog Fantasy to our favorite underdogs, Shohn start us off.

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00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 4: We have one consensus pick here.

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00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, Chuck Buffalo Charles Ragkey against Proper Mike Malot. I

408
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 2: think we're both mostly targeting Ragkey live. I think that's

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00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:21,840
Speaker 2: where you may get the best number, because he's likely

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00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 2: to get out grappled. I would say in the opening

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00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 2: round he could absolutely land a knockout blow. I want

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00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 2: to have a pre fight ticket on Rakky, but I

413
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 2: do think you probably get the best number live after

414
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 2: round one. Mollot, typically a good starter, relatively durable, has

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00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 2: a little bit of power on his own, but the

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00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:43,120
Speaker 2: cardio is a significant concern. His collapse against Neil Magny

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Speaker 2: one of the worst, I think in the history.

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Speaker 3: Of the UFC.

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Speaker 2: Could not imagine having a Mellot ticket in that fight.

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00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,919
Speaker 2: Could not imagine having a fight to go to a

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00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 2: decision ticket in that matchup either. I mean just absolutely

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00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: dominated for the first fourteen minutes and then melted in

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00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 2: the final sixty seconds and just took ground and pound

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00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 2: until the ref called it off. He was hanging on

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00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 2: for dear life, hoping to hear the final belt would

426
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 2: not come. Has not been extended much. Tends to finish

427
00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,680
Speaker 2: opponents in round one, but when he does get extended,

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00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:16,200
Speaker 2: it tends to look very ugly. So Buffalo Chucky Buffalo

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00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 2: Charles Raggy moneyline pre fight KO pre fight at plus

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Speaker 2: three sixty, but then also his live betting angle after

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Speaker 2: round one and his late props Raggy to win in

432
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 2: round two at ten to one, Ragkey to win in

433
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 2: round three at thirteen to one would take those down

434
00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 2: to about eight to one and ten to one, respectively.

435
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 2: Big size advantage from a lot six to one versus

436
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 2: five to nine is the better grappler. But I think

437
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 2: Raggy is going to rally here if he doesn't get

438
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,239
Speaker 2: submitted on bottom within five minutes. Billy, do you kind

439
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 2: of see that playing out similarly? Do you like the

440
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: Raggy live angle and the late props and then any

441
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 2: other ways you're considering betting him be on the money line.

442
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 4: So my initial read was exactly what you described. Then

443
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 4: I looked into it a little bit more. Chuck Buffalo

444
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 4: has been a beat black belt for like a long time,

445
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 4: and if you just search Charles Radkey grappling, he's got

446
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 4: a competitor page on smooth Cop like a mile long.

447
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 4: The dude is out here grinding black belt tournaments at

448
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 4: like random rec centers across the country against every black

449
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,440
Speaker 4: belt he can find super heavyweight, just doing all kinds

450
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 4: of cool stuff and dominating, and he's never been taken

451
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 4: down in the UFC. He's fought guys who probably aren't

452
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 4: going to do that, like Blood Diamond and Carlos Proceasts.

453
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 4: So like that's yeah, So you know, it's hard to

454
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 4: say that for sure. I don't know that Malot has

455
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:35,640
Speaker 4: the grappling edge that I initially assumed he did is where.

456
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 5: I'm going with that.

457
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 4: I think it best he might have a grappling edge,

458
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,840
Speaker 4: but not a wrestling edge, which means we get kind

459
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 4: of a sloppy yet fun striking matchup between two guys

460
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 4: who hit hard, don't have great defense, and are kind

461
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 4: of just going to go for it. And one of

462
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 4: those dudes is plus one forty ish and the other's

463
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 4: minus one sixty, So I know where I'm going to

464
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 4: put my money on that one. I think, you know,

465
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,439
Speaker 4: we put big gloves on these guys, probably maybe favor

466
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 4: Charles Radkey. I don't have a strong opinion on who's

467
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 4: the better striker, but at worst, it's a coin flip,

468
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 4: and we're flipping a coin at plus one forty, So

469
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 4: I actually like the pre fight. I don't know that

470
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 4: that grappling plays out the way you described, even though

471
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 4: that's how I thought it was going to until I

472
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 4: dug a little deeper. So I'm mostly with you live stuff,

473
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 4: always find if you can get it, But this one,

474
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 4: I'd rather have the plus money pre fight, and because

475
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 4: I'd be kicking myself if Chuck Buffalo comes out and

476
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 4: dominates round one and now he's minus three hundred or whatever.

477
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 2: Love that analysis, Yeah, I think that that just increases

478
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 2: the likelihood of an early knockout, early finished for Ragy

479
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 2: if mo Lot is not able to grapple him. I

480
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 2: certainly prefer Raky striking, prefer his power. I think I

481
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 2: prefer his durability as well, and definitely prefer the cardios.

482
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 2: So a lot of things pointing to Raggy if he's

483
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 2: able to defend the grappling in that matchup. Another fight

484
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: we want to talk about in this underdog section Jung

485
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 2: Young Lee against Daniel Santos. This line has kind of flipped.

486
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 2: I believe Santo's opened as the favorite. He's now sitting

487
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,119
Speaker 2: as high as plus one twenty His fight is plus

488
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 2: one twenty three to go to a decision as well.

489
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 2: That is sort of where I lean. Bandam weight division

490
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: historically about a fifty two percent division rate. In recent years,

491
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: with all of these quality Bandam weights on the roster,

492
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 2: this division has gone a decision at nearly a seventy

493
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 2: percent clip. I believe it's sixty eight percent in the

494
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 2: past couple of years, but overall, historically you can average

495
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 2: it out closer to fifty two percent. Getting plus money

496
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty three seems like an interesting bet

497
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: to make, but it should be a high paced war

498
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: between these two. Daniel Santo's pully cat. Santos is an

499
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,679
Speaker 2: extremely aggressive striker, and we've seen young youngly struggle with

500
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: pressure in the past, getting knocked out by hyder emails.

501
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 2: So i'd imagine you, like Santo's, just curious at what

502
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,440
Speaker 2: price point you like the money line, and then whether

503
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 2: I should not bother sweating the GTD prop because somebody

504
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:48,719
Speaker 2: is likely to get finished here.

505
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: Tell me your thoughts on how this one plays out.

506
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a tough one.

507
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 4: I when I was making my notes for this last night,

508
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 4: Daniel Santos is like plus one oh five. Now he's

509
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 4: plus one twenty. I said, you know, I want to

510
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 4: bet on Santos if the line keeps moving. But there's

511
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 4: a weird paradox here where if the line moves too much,

512
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna overthink it and go. I don't know

513
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 4: what am I missing here, Because you know we've had

514
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 4: some insider batting issues in UFC in the past. Stuff

515
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 4: can happen. I think Daniel Santos is the better fighter.

516
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 4: Like I've been very high on him throughout his career,

517
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 4: but he signed in twenty twenty two, has had three

518
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 4: fights and hasn't fought in almost two years. And he's

519
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 4: also going up a weight class for this matchup, which

520
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 4: you know, we haven't seen him in two years.

521
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 5: Did he put it on ten pounds of muscle? Maybe? Like,

522
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 5: probably hasn't done a lot of drug tests in the

523
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 5: last two years.

524
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 4: And he lives in Brazil where they don't really care

525
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 4: what you do, so that's an option. But he might

526
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 4: come in and just be the smaller guy and be outclassed.

527
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 4: Or also he hasn't fought for two years because he's

528
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 4: been injured and not training. Like, we just don't know,

529
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 4: which is why I've wanted to wait to get the

530
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 4: better plus money. With that said, like, we have plenty

531
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 4: of data that when a guy opens as a favorite

532
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,400
Speaker 4: and closes his underdog, Vegas had it right more than

533
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 4: the market. I don't know what the market is doing

534
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 4: here with young young Lee the plus one twenty.

535
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 5: I'm going to wait and hold out.

536
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 4: If we see like a plus one thirty, I think

537
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 4: you have to pull the trigger, but just get as

538
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 4: greedy as possible here. You don't have to make this

539
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 4: bet right. If it doesn't get to where you want it,

540
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 4: don't take it. I'm hoping it gets a little bit better.

541
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,360
Speaker 4: If it gets too much better, I'm going to talk

542
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 4: myself out of it. So like plus one thirty plus

543
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:25,120
Speaker 4: one forty kind of the sweet spot. If I see

544
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,439
Speaker 4: beyond that, I'm going to be nervous. Might still make it,

545
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 4: but yeah, it's a weird situation. The market movements have

546
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 4: got me a little bit freaked out here.

547
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, the move up and weight class I think partially

548
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 2: lending my desire to beout the ghost of the decision

549
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 2: prop least six inch reach advantage three inches taller, so

550
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: is the bigger fighter. I don't think Willie Kat's aggression

551
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 2: is going to threaten Lee as much as a similarly

552
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,479
Speaker 2: sized fighter like a hyder a Meal would. So I

553
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 2: do think this is an aggressive war like it's a

554
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 2: high paced fun fight fighter the Night candidate. But I

555
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: think this is one of those sweaty fights that ends

556
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: up going all fifteen minutes, ultimately getting plus money to

557
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: do so. I bet I'm interested in making a bet.

558
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 2: I'm not in love with making, but we'll see if

559
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 2: I get there.

560
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 4: Scared like it there's what feels correct is scary on

561
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 4: both sides of it. I will say, broadly speaking, absent

562
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 4: any other information, you tell me a thirty year old

563
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: flyweight is moving up to bantam weight. Is he going

564
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 4: from bantam to feather? Bantam defeather, sorry feather? Yeah, either way,

565
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 4: thirty year old dude going up a weight class always

566
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 4: feels like a good thing, Like maybe not middleweight, till

567
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 4: like heavyweight. Ever, these smaller guys, like I feel like

568
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 4: you're going to perform better without a severe of a

569
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 4: weight cut. But when I haven't seen you do it

570
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 4: for two years, I'm scared. So like, just like you're

571
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 4: scared on the total, I'm scared here. Probably gonna end

572
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,479
Speaker 4: up making it. But yeah, it's a weird one.

573
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not sure.

574
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 2: I'd have to go back and look through his fight

575
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 2: history on tapology to see whether he was pulling out

576
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: of fights whe their opponents were pulling out of fights.

577
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 2: That's that's one of those things that like to dig

578
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: deeper into. Do you happen an offhand or is it

579
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 2: just he's not been booked.

580
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 4: Like mostly Santos, But so it started before he got

581
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 4: his debut. There was a couple other guys that pulled

582
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 4: out against him. More recently, it's been all him pulling out.

583
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 4: So yeah, But then he didn't have a lot on

584
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 4: the books for a while either, so yeah.

585
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 2: I mean, if you have something book for a while,

586
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 2: that would that would lead me to believe he was

587
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: nursing an injury from training or something and just told

588
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:23,800
Speaker 2: him like I'm not ready for a little while.

589
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: And was coming back.

590
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 2: This is all speculation, but it's it's the bigger point

591
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: is like when a guy's been out for a while,

592
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 2: trying to figure out why.

593
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 3: They've been out. You know, were they dealing with an injury?

594
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 2: Were they were they constantly pulling out where their opponent's

595
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 2: constantly pulling out, Like there's a difference.

596
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 3: There's a difference from one two year.

597
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: Layoff to the next. It actually surprises me that he's

598
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 2: been off for that long because he seems like a

599
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: guy who's been relatively active. It's fun fighter fan favorite.

600
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 3: I don't really know how much I.

601
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 2: Move up and wait helps him though, Like he always

602
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: had a very aggressive style, seemed like he had good cardio.

603
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 2: Didn't seem to be a guy who's fading in the

604
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 2: third round. If you remember like any sort of cardioitions

605
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:00,160
Speaker 2: for him, because I don't.

606
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 4: No, But just again, like as someone who was, you know,

607
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 4: cutting weight into my mid to late twenties, like it

608
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 4: just gets harder and we don't know how. We don't

609
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 4: know what he looks like in the gym when he's fresh, right,

610
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 4: So like while it might not look like he has

611
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 4: any issues, that might be him at eighty percent or

612
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 4: ninety percent or whatever. But yeah, I just say to

613
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 4: your point, like the opposite end of that is somebody

614
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 4: like Benil Dariush who got their full paycheck including win

615
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 4: bonus to not fight and then you don't see for

616
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 4: a while, where someone like Santos who's just had three

617
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 4: fights in the UFC, you'd have to imagine financially he's

618
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 4: trying to get in there.

619
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 5: As much as possible. You would think, I don't know.

620
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 2: Let's talk about four fights from a prop perspective before

621
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 2: we wrap up with our bets bets, Let's move to

622
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: the prelimbs with one of the better more interesting dynamics

623
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 2: on the car between Jasmin, j Just Sudavisious and Just

624
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 2: Gone Draj. This is probably the most dangerous fighter that

625
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: Jess Sudavicious has faced this fight is minus one ten

626
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: to go to a decision in a vision where the

627
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 2: average fight goes to decision about sixty eight percent of

628
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: the time, So I'm probably taking a price discrepancy play

629
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 2: here on jess Sudivisious by decision at plus two point fifty.

630
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 2: I think that is certainly an interesting or she's plus

631
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 2: one thirty five. I should say I make her minus

632
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: money to win by decision in a fight where she's favored,

633
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,720
Speaker 2: she's minus three hundred. If you multiply her win rate,

634
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: that's seventy five percent win rate by the divisional average.

635
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 2: You should be at minus money. I think I'd put

636
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: this fight at around sixty percent to go to a

637
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 2: decision instead of seventy percent, but still not getting it

638
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: closer to that fifty percent mark. So mostly size advantage

639
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 2: grappling upside for jess Udivisious here. Andraj is the more

640
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 2: dangerous of the two, Andras does tend to get finished

641
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: when she gets stuck on bottom. But j Justsudavisious, does

642
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 2: not strike me as a relatively consistent finisher. The ground

643
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 2: of pound is fine, but she's she's not somebody who

644
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 2: I think is going to consistently finish opponent on the match.

645
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: She does tend to prioritize position and look to keep

646
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: opponents down and against the particularly aggressive finisher like Onrage,

647
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 2: I think she's going to look to stay safe once

648
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: she actually gets the fight to the ground. So Jasmine

649
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 2: minus three and a half minus one thirty five on

650
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 2: the point spread we've seen Andrage when she loses decisions lately,

651
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 2: she's typically losing all three rounds or the fight to

652
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 2: go to a decision at minus one ten plus Jasmin

653
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 2: to win by decision of plus one thirty five. All

654
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: three of those bets interest me in this matchup, as

655
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 2: well as a live bet after round one if she

656
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 2: loses round one. Hasn't grappled much yet. I think she

657
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 2: does get the takedowns in the second and third round

658
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 2: and survive. So Billy just Gondroge versus Jasmine just sudivisious.

659
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on this matchup anyway you're betting it.

660
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 5: I really like your minus three and a half there.

661
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 4: I was kind of hoping we get a better price,

662
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 4: But I've talked about this with Kevin Holland. Where there's

663
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 4: two Kevin Hollands there's middleweight Kevin Holland who's okay, and

664
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 4: there's Walter Waight Kevin Holland, who's really good. There's two

665
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 4: Jessica and Rodge because at one point fifteen she is

666
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 4: a physical three someone who has yeah, who has power

667
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 4: that you know, no one can hang with other than

668
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 4: like the best of the best, and at one twenty

669
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 4: five she's just a little bit too small and just

670
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 4: kind of gets bullied around.

671
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 5: So I like that.

672
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 4: I'm actually a little bit tempted by Jasmine.

673
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 5: By finished.

674
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 4: Here's why she has two submission wins in her last

675
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 4: four fights. They are both from a front headlock series.

676
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 4: She has a dars and Anaconda, which are basically the

677
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 4: same thing. Don't come at me jiu jitsu people, you

678
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 4: know what I'm saying, But that's how androd tries to

679
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 4: get up, She's gonna try to turtle and stand back

680
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 4: up the fight, which gives opportunities for those So I

681
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 4: maybe even a submission prop for jesuita visius. The minus

682
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 4: three and a half kind of covers all of it.

683
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 4: Either she dominates the grappling or gets those but I'm

684
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 4: I'm very tempted for the subprop. If bet MGM combined

685
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 4: those into one submission, as I would argue that we could,

686
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 4: because it's just which arm goes in first. It's the

687
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 4: same thing I would try to do this specific market there.

688
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: I don't believe they do.

689
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 5: I haven't looked, but yeah.

690
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that minus three and a half probably

691
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: the best way to play that. And then if she

692
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: loses round one, you can probably hop on with a

693
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 2: better live bet after round one. That might be the

694
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: two best ways to play this fight. The GTD just

695
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 2: seems so far off from the divisional average. I've uber

696
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,719
Speaker 2: tempted to play it, you know, give them the price discrepancy,

697
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: but you know, to your point Andrage loves to stick

698
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: her head into chokes and quit when it's not going

699
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: well for her. Another woman's fight on the card, I

700
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: want to touch on Italia Silva minus three and a

701
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 2: half at even money against Alexa Grosso Grosso coming off

702
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: of her title fight loss to Valentina shop Cheko, where

703
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 2: she looked disinterested, relatively disinterested in that fight, was not

704
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 2: able to get up off the ground. Now, something I

705
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 2: want to shout out about Natalia Silva and a data

706
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: point I've noticed in terms of handicapping fights, most fighters

707
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,960
Speaker 2: trend towards one hundred on their combined strike accuracy and

708
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: striking defense. Alexa Grosso is around ninety nine. Most fighters

709
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 2: are around one hundred combined strike accuracy plus striking defense.

710
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 2: The elite of the elite fighters, the championship caliber fighters

711
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 2: tend to be above one ten. Dustin Poye one O two,

712
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 2: Max Holloway one O six. Justin Gatchee won eleven, Eliot

713
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 2: Taporo one eleven, Alexander Volkanowski won fourteen. Valentinia Shipchenka one sixteen,

714
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 2: Islami Kachev won nineteen.

715
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 3: Natalia.

716
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 2: Silva is at one eleven, Alexa Grosso's at ninety nine. Now,

717
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,959
Speaker 2: Silva has fought a lower level of competition, but this

718
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: is a data point I've noticed kind of maintains itself

719
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 2: nor no matter the level of competition that you're fighting,

720
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: if you can maintain that significant strike accuracy and defense

721
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: combined above one ten, you were probably an elite level

722
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: championship caliber fighter. Silva has done that to this point.

723
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 2: Grosso a little bit less efficient, but Silva has about

724
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 2: seven percent on her in striking defense, at about five

725
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 2: percent in terms of striking accuracy, so I do really

726
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 2: trust the numbers for Natalia Silva. She's defended twenty two

727
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 2: of the twenty four takedown attempts against her in the UFC.

728
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 2: I do not think Alexa Grosso is a particularly good wrestler.

729
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: She does have good submissions, but she's not good at

730
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: getting the fight to the ground. Silva's won thirteen of

731
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: her fifteen rounds in the UFC. She lost round one

732
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 2: to Teresa Bleda, where she did get put on bottom

733
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 2: and put in a submission attempt at the end of

734
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 2: that round, But aside from that, I think her grappling

735
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 2: has generally looked pretty solid, and I think she's continued

736
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: to prove the longer she's been in the UFC. So

737
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 2: getting or having the lay juice here on a up

738
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 2: and comer against the former title holder and multiple time

739
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 2: title challenger, I think seems a little sketchy just because

740
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 2: of the relative status levels that they've achieved in their careers.

741
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: Silva's also been to some close decisions, but I think

742
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: Grosso needs grappling success here in order to overcome Silva's

743
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 2: drastic speed advantage, and I think her speed and her kicks,

744
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 2: her movement around the cage are really going to frustrate

745
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 2: Alaxa Grosso for the entirety of this fight. I would

746
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 2: probably lay the money line on Silva. I make her

747
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 2: minus three hunder it, would probably consider laying it at

748
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 2: minus to twenty. I think her minus three and a

749
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 2: half even money maybe the better bet. Grossel could absolutely

750
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 2: win a round off of her butt. I do think

751
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 2: she needs to grapple in order to have success doing so. Billy,

752
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 2: feel free to tell me I'm wrong in terms of

753
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: my analysis on this matchup, but I do think Silva

754
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 2: is a championship level fighter.

755
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 3: What's your view of her? What's your view of her.

756
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 2: In potential title matchup against either Valentina or Fiora. How

757
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 2: do you view those three fighters relative to one another?

758
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 2: And then how do you see this one playing out?

759
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:26,359
Speaker 2: Are you interested in betting it at all?

760
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:32,879
Speaker 4: I'm fully with you to honestly like strengthen your point

761
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,400
Speaker 4: about the striking stats a little bit. A lot of

762
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 4: those fighters you mentioned that had the best numbers Isla,

763
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 4: Maka As Volkanovski, a lot of that came because they

764
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 4: were on top of an opponent, and it's really easy

765
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 4: to have higher you know, good defense and good offense

766
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 4: and when you're in mount or whatever like that's super easy.

767
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 4: Silva almost almost entirely on the feet. She had two

768
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 4: takedowns against Jasmin Jasuda Vicious in her UFC debut, which

769
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 4: is super impressive for a striker to come out and

770
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 4: do that. Other than that, though, she's built her stats

771
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 4: on the feet, which make them even more impressive. Think

772
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:09,959
Speaker 4: she's at a physical disadvantage to either of the women

773
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 4: fighting for the title nowfair, but she's also a good

774
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 4: bit younger, so if she waits that one out, definitely

775
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 4: a future champion potential like her Blanchefield, Maycy Barber who

776
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:22,880
Speaker 4: kind of have a good little crop coming up at

777
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 4: that division.

778
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 5: Love your Bat might even.

779
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 4: Play Silva finish, just because she is so dynamic on

780
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 4: the feet, although we haven't seen it in a few fights.

781
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 4: But if Grosso is as uninterested or has that championship

782
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 4: come down kind of situation that we sometimes see, it

783
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 4: wouldn't shock me if she just kind of a little

784
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 4: lethargic out there, eats a spinning back kick, goes home.

785
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 4: So yeah, fully agree and mostly on the same way

786
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 4: or if anything, stronger feelings than you have.

787
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, good good points about the physicality. But as we

788
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 2: mentioned Fioro and Chipchanko thirty five and thirty seven, respectively,

789
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 2: by the time they actually fight, those two may have

790
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 2: potentially aged out speed wise athletically.

791
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 3: Silva is just.

792
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 2: Super fast, really left her movement, her athleticism, really fun fighter,

793
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 2: A big, good matchup, a couple more, three more fights.

794
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: Actually want to talk about this prop section from a

795
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 2: proper perspective, Let's go back to the main card. Ben

796
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 2: La Saint Denis against Kyle Is it Prepelic? Yeah, previously

797
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 2: been in the UFC. BSD is like a minus one

798
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 2: thousand favored here I project the fight like minus six

799
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 2: hundred to and inside the distance. But Prepolic never been

800
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,360
Speaker 2: knocked out, and I believe has not been submitted in

801
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:34,239
Speaker 2: quite a long time.

802
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:34,560
Speaker 5: Either.

803
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: Do you think it's more so him surviving for seven

804
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 2: and a half minutes, or do you think BSD, coming

805
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 2: off of consecutive losses is just a little bit more

806
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 2: conservative than he has been in recent fights.

807
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: All the above, I'll start by saying Propellac is kind

808
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 4: of an unknown to the audience because he's been gone

809
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 4: for a few years. Came up around the same time

810
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,760
Speaker 4: as me in Windsor which is basically, you know, fifteen

811
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 4: minutes from my house. We fought on plenty of the

812
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 4: same cad. I've hesitated whether I was gonna say this

813
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 4: on air or not. I think he armbarred me in

814
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 4: an amateur fight when we were like nineteen, were the

815
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 4: same age, but there was another Canadian dude named Kyle

816
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 4: who was tearing us all up. And I'm honestly not

817
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 4: sure which one it was and couldn't find it in

818
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 4: the Facebook memories. So yeah, there's a dude from Windsor

819
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 4: named Kyle who arm barred me like very quickly when

820
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 4: I tried to go to one fifty five, and I

821
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 4: think it was him. I'm not one hundred percent on

822
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 4: that though, but a few points. I do think BSD

823
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 4: comes out more conservative because he's hit that wall so hard.

824
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,399
Speaker 4: He also said that he was fighting without a coach,

825
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 4: like he was just running his own camps. And if

826
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 4: you're running your own camps and you think you're the man, yeah,

827
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 4: you're gonna come out and try to blitz everyone. And

828
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 4: if you have a coach, maybe they say, hey, you

829
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 4: know we're here. We got three rounds. That's not empty

830
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 4: the tank. Now prepolec as you pointed out, never been

831
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 4: knocked out. The last time he was finished was a

832
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 4: dozen years ago against Kevin Lee. He's fought some really

833
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 4: tough cop and that was a pre UFC fight that

834
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 4: wasn't in the UFC. They were both like three and

835
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 4: Ozhero as pro fighters in a Michigan regional fight. So

836
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 4: very tough guy, very good technical striker. I think his

837
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 4: strength and power and physicality just hasn't held up to

838
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 4: the elite athletes of the UFC, which is also going

839
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 4: to be the case against BSD obviously. But the other

840
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 4: thing I think people are missing. We're thinking of this

841
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,839
Speaker 4: as a short notice signing. Prepolec was booked to fight

842
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 4: Friday night at a different show in Montreal. That's why

843
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 4: he got the call here because he was already fighting.

844
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,240
Speaker 4: He was already ready to cut weight. He was literally

845
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 4: fighting twenty four hours before this one in the same city,

846
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 4: so he had a full camp. He had as much

847
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 4: preparation for this one as PSD. What I have in

848
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 4: there right now is the over one and a half

849
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 4: at plus one thirty. If we get fight to start

850
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 4: round two at plus money, those markets aren't u yet.

851
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 4: That's probably where I would pivot the gist of it is,

852
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:53,919
Speaker 4: I think we see the classic UFC last minute fight

853
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 4: where the guy coming in shocks us all with his

854
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 4: first round success and then ultimately kind of fades and

855
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 4: we remember why he was a plus eight hundred underdog

856
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 4: or whatever. I think we're going to see that here,

857
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 4: and those are hard to bet on because you can't

858
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 4: do the point spread because if they get finished late

859
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 4: or give up the ten eighth. So that is my

860
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 4: general thesis here is that we are impressed by propolex

861
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 4: moral victory that does not turn into an actual victory.

862
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 3: Yeah.

863
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 2: I would imagine the BSc round one probably be heavily favored,

864
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 2: but even the round two prop will probably only be

865
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 2: plus two to fifty plus three hundred. It probably will

866
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 2: not be enticing enough to play. I think that over

867
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,399
Speaker 2: one and a half the fight to start round two

868
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 2: pretty good looks on a matchup where we have a

869
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: lot of reasons to underrate the challenger's durability, as you said,

870
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 2: the fact that he's on a full camp. But also

871
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,720
Speaker 2: I think you could see a style change from Benoi

872
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: Saintany coming off of those recent losses. Two more fights

873
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 2: from a proper respective Navajos Sterling against I've an Erslana

874
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 2: light heavyweight out. I projected Sterling minus four eighty in

875
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 2: this fight. He's currently around minus three hundred. I think

876
00:40:56,040 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 2: he's a relatively safe Harla piece, but ever potentially grapple him.

877
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on the matchup? Do you see

878
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: Ersline trying to grapple, tiring out, getting finished late, He's

879
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:05,920
Speaker 2: like Sterling late.

880
00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 3: Props that where you're going.

881
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, So anytime we get these recent Contender Series signings,

882
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 4: my first area of study is to go back and

883
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 4: read my Contender Series breakdown pick of them. And when

884
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 4: Sterling was on the Contender Series, I said, you know,

885
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 4: he's a city kickboxing prospect, really good technical striking, very

886
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 4: patient counter striking, the city kickboxing blueprint, right, Like, we

887
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 4: know these guys at this point, we know what they do.

888
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 4: And I picked him to win in round two or

889
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 4: round three in that fight, and he won in round

890
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 4: two against an aggressive first round finisher. Uc Debut Proper

891
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 4: went to a decision against a fighter in Tuco Tucos

892
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 4: who didn't really take it to him the same way.

893
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 4: I think Ursuline looks almost exactly like the guy that

894
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 4: he fought and style wise on the Contender Series, Ersuline

895
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 4: has a ton of first round wins, a ton of

896
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 4: losses when it gets out of the first round. Hyper

897
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 4: aggressive tries to just melt you right away. It's just

898
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 4: the perfect setup for are Linked to do the same thing.

899
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 4: He's got a big reach advantage. We're in the big cage.

900
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 4: He can pick him apart with the jab, faint and

901
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 4: counter striking round one, turn it up in rounds two,

902
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 4: around three, So various ways to play this. You can,

903
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 4: you know, do an SGP to make this one bet whatever.

904
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 4: But I've got Sterling round two plus four eighty, round

905
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 4: three at plus seven hundred, both those around fan duel.

906
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 4: I think he finds the finish here, but he takes

907
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 4: his time a little bit against the hyper aggressive ursula.

908
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably be joining you on that seems like

909
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,839
Speaker 2: a better approach than laying juice on the money line.

910
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 2: I may parlay Sterling up with somebody Silva, you know,

911
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 2: Natalia Silva.

912
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 5: Moneylin got juice real hard too.

913
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 4: He was like, I think like minus two eighty or

914
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 4: something on Monday, and now it's way past that.

915
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I make it close to minus fine hunder. Like

916
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 2: I said, he's one of my bigger projected edges on

917
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 2: the cart I'm just not super excited about betting a

918
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: guy at minus three fifty straight in his second UFC fight, but.

919
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 3: Partly a piece in Natalia Silva.

920
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 2: I think you can get that over even money, or

921
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 2: very close to it, maybe minus one ten minus one

922
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 2: twenty Mark Andre Barrio against Bruno Silva, the taller of

923
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,240
Speaker 2: the Bruno Silva's web. Another Bruno Silva fighting the Flyway

924
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 2: Division in a few weeks. Barrio been knocked out a

925
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 2: bunch of times in his recent fights. He used to

926
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 2: be one of the more durable point fighters in the

927
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 2: UFC high volume action fights, but was able to stick

928
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 2: in there and be super durable. Silva seems like an

929
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 2: extremely diminished version of his former self. Came to the

930
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 2: UFC with a big reputation.

931
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 3: I think he had a.

932
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 2: Bunch of wins in m On Global and fought a

933
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 2: lot of tough Russians. Since the Alex Perrera fight, he

934
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 2: just seems like completely shot physically getting knocked down and

935
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 2: submitted by Gerald Muorshart like physically diminished. His shin doesn't

936
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 2: look great either, but I do view Silva as the

937
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 2: more durable the two. I view him as the one

938
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 2: likelier to finish of the two. You're betting Silva by knockout,

939
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 2: II lean to Bario by decision. There's a way that

940
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: you can combine those opinions into one bet.

941
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, Draftings has those two either or it's minus one

942
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 4: seventy five though, which I don't love for, like, you know,

943
00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 4: basically either or on specific method of victor. But if

944
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 4: it's going to happen, it seems like that's kind of

945
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 4: how it goes theoretically. Bruno Silva's last three fights have

946
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,439
Speaker 4: all been decision losses, even though one of them didn't

947
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 4: go the full fifteen minutes, and that's because he got

948
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 4: TKO via ipoke by Chris Weidman, which became a technical decision.

949
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 4: Probably should have won that by DQ because he got

950
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 4: poked in the eye like just a bunch of times.

951
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 4: One time he got three stooged in both eyes at once,

952
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 4: like we get we got to do something here, you know.

953
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 4: And then his other finished losses are both submissions to

954
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 4: Brendan Allen and Gerald Miershart, Like that's gonna happen, right,

955
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 4: Like those guys are going to submit. Some people took

956
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 4: Alex Peda to a decision, though, which was pretty impressive.

957
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 5: In theory, he's the much better fighter.

958
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 4: He's more athletic than Mark Andre Barrio, far better technical striker,

959
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 4: way more just juice. But he came out of an

960
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 4: interview in one of his fights and was like, Yeah,

961
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 4: I didn't really want to be there. I'm just kind

962
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:53,959
Speaker 4: of phoning it in. So that's why I can't bet

963
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 4: his money line. If it seemed like if it seemed

964
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 4: like he cared as much as I would care about

965
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 4: my bet as he he does about his own fight,

966
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 4: I'd probably bet his money line. I can't be confident

967
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 4: in saying that's the case. And it's easy to say, like,

968
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 4: if he doesn't get a quick knockout, maybe that's when

969
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 4: he quits, right, he comes out, throws some punches. If

970
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 4: you have some success, it's easy to care if you're

971
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 4: beating the guy up. When it goes against you, maybe

972
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 4: that's when you kind of just phone it in. So

973
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:20,600
Speaker 4: I am with you. If Bario wins, I think it's

974
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 4: a decision. Silvia wins, I think it's a knockout pick

975
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 4: either or playing both At minus one seventy five, I'm.

976
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 5: Good with any of that.

977
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:31,280
Speaker 4: I wish we could trust either of these guys like Silva.

978
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 4: It's mental, barrio, it's physical, but they both are scary

979
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 4: at this point in their careers.

980
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: Let's get to our best bets for UFC three fourteen.

981
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Ian Kudlaba at minus one ten

982
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 2: against Medesta's Bukowskis. Kudol Aaba always a fast starter, always

983
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,120
Speaker 2: a guy you want to have a pre fight ticket on,

984
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 2: if you have one on him at all, can look

985
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 2: to live bet his opponent live after round one. But

986
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: I think Koudolaba showed him that even ursulon fight that

987
00:45:57,360 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: he has at least ten minutes of cardio decision if

988
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 2: he needs it. He did fade hard in round three.

989
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,839
Speaker 2: I think Mukaskis can come back rally and beat him

990
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 2: in round three. But Lukowskas has really struggled against more

991
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:12,720
Speaker 2: physical opponents. When he's able to get that outside, low tempo,

992
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:16,319
Speaker 2: moderate tempo kickboxing match, he looks very comfortable when he

993
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 2: gets guys who pressure him or are more physical than

994
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 2: him future Petrino Cli Rowntree nkle Alek Sachuck, he really

995
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 2: struggles with that physicality he likes to have.

996
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 3: Space.

997
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 2: He's a tall, long, lanky guy, likes to have space

998
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: to lank kicks.

999
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 3: He is not like being.

1000
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 2: Crowded or fighting in the clinch or grappling as proactively. Defensively,

1001
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 2: He's he's a decent offensive grappler, but defensively he really

1002
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 2: does seem to struggle. I think Kudulaba in general just

1003
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 2: generally kind of an underrated guy because the ceiling and

1004
00:46:45,600 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: the floor are both so high and low, respectively. He's

1005
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 2: not the most fun guy to bet on because when

1006
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,920
Speaker 2: he loses, it's going to look like an utter collapse,

1007
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 2: and that could absolutely happen here after the first eight

1008
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 2: to ten minutes or so. But I think you can

1009
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 2: grab a live number one book if he doesn't get

1010
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 2: put out of there early. And I think also combining

1011
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 2: Koudo Laba at minus one ten with the ends inside

1012
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 2: the distance prop at minus t twenty or the under

1013
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 2: two and a half rounds at minus one sixty four

1014
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,279
Speaker 2: could be a good approach to take as well. I

1015
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 2: think he either finishes Lukowskis early or fades in Bukowskis

1016
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 2: finishes him in round three. I also like Kulaba inside

1017
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 2: distance at plus one thirty as well, Billy, any thoughts

1018
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 2: on that fight, and then after that, you've got a

1019
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 2: best bet in the opening fight on the card, Brad

1020
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 2: Katona against Almacon.

1021
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I didn't really think of this angle until you

1022
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 4: said it, But I believe Blukowskis has like some kind

1023
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,399
Speaker 4: of karate or traditional market art background for the picks

1024
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 4: and stuff like that, and if you come out aggressively

1025
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 4: at those guys, there's just nothing they can do, like

1026
00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 4: we've seen it time and time again. So I had

1027
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 4: not really thought too hard about that fight from a

1028
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,720
Speaker 4: betting standpoint, because it's a DFS gold mine, like someone's

1029
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 4: sure gonna score a long points and that one for DFS.

1030
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,879
Speaker 4: But you have mostly convinced me that at the very least,

1031
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 4: I'll be much heavier on Ewan for DFS and I

1032
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,160
Speaker 4: might even bet him as well. So yeah, that was

1033
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 4: a good point. I hadn't thought that far, but one

1034
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 4: hundred percent agree with you.

1035
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 2: U Tuskas has the knee injury too, versus Roundtree like

1036
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 2: he's since the injury like he I just don't think

1037
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,320
Speaker 2: he wants to grapple as much. I think he really

1038
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 2: prefers being outside and kicking and being a volume cardio guy,

1039
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,320
Speaker 2: and well, as you said, when you when you crowd

1040
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 2: those karate style guy, those kicker guys like their game

1041
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,279
Speaker 2: kind of falls apart completely. He's going to get pushed

1042
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 2: up against the fence here, probably gonna get taken down.

1043
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 2: We'll see if young can finish him on the ground.

1044
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 2: Starting to rupt. You go go ahead and give out

1045
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:37,240
Speaker 2: your bet for Katona against Almacon.

1046
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 4: I'm going to the best bet. Like, I am super

1047
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:43,319
Speaker 4: happy about this one. Beck's at Almacon. I'm pretty sure

1048
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 4: Becksat stands for Baby Shopcott from the same region of

1049
00:48:46,760 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 4: the world. They look similar, they fight similar, So I

1050
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 4: know I'm doing the thing that we occasionally complain about

1051
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 4: and have referenced a couple of times here. But when

1052
00:48:55,200 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 4: a fighter comes in on short notice, they win that

1053
00:48:57,320 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 4: moral victory, we get really high on him for the

1054
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 4: next fight. It doesn't always work, but BECKSI came out

1055
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:05,960
Speaker 4: and dropped Umar and Maraga madeoff. I'm short noticed in

1056
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 4: his debut and now he's only, let me check, like

1057
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 4: minus one forty five against Brad Katona. He's going from

1058
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 4: Umar and Maraga madeoff to Brad Katona and we're not

1059
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 4: making him a massive favorite. I don't understand. I think

1060
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 4: he's actually very good. His highlight reel in the pre UFC,

1061
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 4: you know, can be misleading, but he's a guy. He

1062
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 4: aggressively grapples, he strikes, He fights so much like Shofcott,

1063
00:49:28,719 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 4: and they're from that same Central Asia region. He is

1064
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 4: more experienced than his record would indicate, because they have

1065
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 4: some Kazakh national sport that is basically MMA, but you

1066
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 4: only get ten or fifteen seconds on the ground, and

1067
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 4: if you watch clips of him doing that, he is

1068
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 4: just wrecking these people. And to emerge from those regions

1069
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 4: that produce so many good fighters, you have to be good, right,

1070
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 4: You can't like be okay and even make it out

1071
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 4: of those places to get to the regional scene.

1072
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 5: I am so.

1073
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 4: Excited about Becksot. Bet him to finish Brad Katona if

1074
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,880
Speaker 4: you want. Nobody finishes Brad Katona. The man loves decisions.

1075
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:04,840
Speaker 4: But there's the first time for everything. Minus three and

1076
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 4: a half at plus one forty also awesome. I bet

1077
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 4: him at a worse price in luck like the CLV

1078
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:11,799
Speaker 4: has gone totally against me and I don't even care.

1079
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 5: I still do it. I'm gonna beat him again. So yeah,

1080
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 5: I love this one partially.

1081
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 4: The thing I'm not saying here is I think Brad

1082
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 4: Katono is very not good. He just ekes out like

1083
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 4: very boring decisions as his ceiling, and he's somehow tiny.

1084
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 4: He has like a five foot four reach, which doesn't

1085
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 4: help in a big cage against the guy who throws

1086
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:32,839
Speaker 4: cool spinning hookkicks and drop through Martin and raghamto off.

1087
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 4: So yeah, very excited about this one, which probably isn't

1088
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 4: always a great sign, Sean.

1089
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 5: Do you have any thoughts on that fight?

1090
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 2: Besott was about plus eight hundred in that fight against Humar,

1091
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:46,360
Speaker 2: did drop him early, mostly got out wrestled, though Umar sewn.

1092
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 5: Nobody drops Umar, and he did.

1093
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 2: It's a fair point and survived through a decision, which

1094
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:53,360
Speaker 2: I think is the most important point. You know, despite

1095
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,560
Speaker 2: having all those modified MMA rule ballots where he was

1096
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 2: nobody's allowed to grapple for more than thirty to sixty

1097
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 2: seconds in those fights that were wearing wrestling shoes in some

1098
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 2: of those fights, he was able to survive to his decision,

1099
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 2: showed the submission defenses there against the high level grappler.

1100
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: Did spend most of the fight on bottom, but that said, yeah,

1101
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 2: his tape look pretty interesting. He looks like a good athlete.

1102
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 2: The tape is funny too, because they're fighting on like

1103
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 2: a lot of carpets inside of cages like it's it's

1104
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 2: some of the most bizarre tape you'll see watching regional MMA,

1105
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 2: the modified rules, the carpets in the cages. But yeah,

1106
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 2: Almacon seems like a good athlete, just very tough to

1107
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: gauge his level, you know, fighting guys regionally in Kazakhstan

1108
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 2: and then coming over one fight against a championship caliber

1109
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:37,880
Speaker 2: you have c opponent, and then, as you said, taking

1110
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 2: a step down in competition to a Brad Katona level

1111
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 2: fighter is just just jumping all over the map in

1112
00:51:44,040 --> 00:51:46,600
Speaker 2: terms of level of competition. Probably a fight I'm passing out.

1113
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:49,279
Speaker 2: I didn't really show much value here. Do you think

1114
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 2: it's likelier to go to a decision?

1115
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:51,319
Speaker 5: Not?

1116
00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 2: But I would imagine that line is pretty juice up

1117
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 2: Alma Almacon point spread perhaps could be an interesting.

1118
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 4: But if there's one thing, it's sneaking out a little round.

1119
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 4: He'll sneak one of those rounds from me there.

1120
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 3: So I'm just that's my and the fight taking place

1121
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 3: in Canada.

1122
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 2: I got to keep that in mind, Katona the Canadian

1123
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:18,400
Speaker 2: boy may get any difference from the judges in a

1124
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 2: close round, especially. I feel like a lot of the

1125
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 2: time too, you know, fighter wins round one, round two

1126
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 2: is close, and the judges are like, it's close, let's

1127
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 2: make it one one. Like I feel like that happens

1128
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:31,800
Speaker 2: way too much where it's like, yeah, let's put the

1129
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 2: fight on the table in round three just because the

1130
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 2: you know, one round was clear. One rounds close, like,

1131
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,160
Speaker 2: let's let's just make it interesting. So I don't want

1132
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 2: any part of that. I don't want any part of

1133
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 2: that in Canada. So yeah, good point. Just take on

1134
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:45,799
Speaker 2: mccona the money line rather than laying the points spread

1135
00:52:45,800 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 2: if you're considering it. But that'll do it for a

1136
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 2: USC betting preview. You can mind find more UFC betting

1137
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:53,359
Speaker 2: content from both Billy and myself both on actionwork dot

1138
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 2: com and in the Action Work AAP. And if you'd

1139
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 2: like to instantly tell some of the bets that we

1140
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 2: discussed on today's show, make sure to look for the

1141
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 2: slip links both in the podcast and the video description,

1142
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 2: or visit actionetwork dot com slash that Now. Don't forget

1143
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:08,360
Speaker 2: to download the free award winning Action Network Gap and

1144
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:10,839
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1145
00:53:10,880 --> 00:53:13,400
Speaker 2: of our expert picks and I'll say's best of luck

1146
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 2: with our your best this weekend, enjoyed violence, Thanks for listening.

1147
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 3: To see you next week.

1148
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:29,960
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1149
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,800
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1150
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:35,880
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