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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 1: Ten seconds remaining, so just go show up to the basket.

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Speaker 3: Under the basket.

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Speaker 4: It's the true for the wind. God make up arracle.

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Speaker 4: I'm just chuck the water.

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Speaker 2: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome everyone to the Sweet sixteen NCAA Player Prop Show.

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Speaker 1: I am Nick Giffen, predictive analysts here at Action Network

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Speaker 1: and joining me the one, the only, the odds maker,

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Speaker 1: our director of predictive Analytics, Sean Kerner, and once again

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Speaker 1: we'll be bringing you sweet sweet sixteen player props. Looking

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Speaker 1: to have a little better week this week. We started

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Speaker 1: off cold last week, kind of got hot, especially Sean

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Speaker 1: over the weekend. So Sean, what do you think, man,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna try to build off that moment into that

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Speaker 1: you had over the weekends.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, we're going to bounce back here, and I'm going

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Speaker 5: to start it off with sort of a you know,

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Speaker 5: a run it back type play here. I'm going to

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Speaker 5: go back to the well with Mark Sears of Alabama

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Speaker 5: to go under three and a half rebounds. You can

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Speaker 5: get it at minus one point eighteen, you know, sure enough?

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Speaker 5: So he had five boards in the opening round. That

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Speaker 5: was very unfortunate, kind of came out of nowhere, and

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Speaker 5: then sure enough, he followed that up with zero boards

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Speaker 5: in the next round against Saint Mary's, so regression finally

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Speaker 5: hit him there. Unfortunately after we locked in the under

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Speaker 5: three and a half for the first round. But this

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Speaker 5: just isn't a number that he typically clears. He stayed

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Speaker 5: under three and a half rebounds sixty six percent of

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Speaker 5: the time this season, and I realized, you know, this

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Speaker 5: is a matchup where it's going to be very fast paced,

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Speaker 5: very high scoring. You know, BYU is gonna chuck up

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Speaker 5: a ton of threes, so someone you know, guard like

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Speaker 5: Mark Mark Sears could be you know, involved in more

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Speaker 5: potential rebounds and normal However, you know, BYU is an

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Speaker 5: excellent shooting team. They rank sixth in effective field goal percentage,

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Speaker 5: so hopefully they're just making their threes and there's just

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Speaker 5: not that many potential rebounds to go around.

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Speaker 2: But b YU is also a very good rebounding team.

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Speaker 5: They have you know, a slight height advantage over Alabama,

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Speaker 5: and the players that Sears will likely be guarding for

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Speaker 5: most of the game are all you know, a handful

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Speaker 5: of benches taller than him. When he was playing Robert Morris,

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Speaker 5: he was the same height or taller than the guys

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Speaker 5: he was guarding, so I think that kind of helped

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Speaker 5: him out early on. But this is a matchup where

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Speaker 5: he's going to be at a height disadvantage for sure.

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Speaker 5: So you know, we're projecting him closer to two point

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Speaker 5: seven boards here with around a sixty two percent chance

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Speaker 5: he stays under three and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, So that is Sean's first pick. It is

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Speaker 1: for the Alibama versus BYU game. My pick's also gonna

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Speaker 1: be in that game. But before we get to that,

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Speaker 1: we know these markets be a little tricky, so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna drop quick slip links in the YouTube chat and uh,

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Speaker 1: of course those will immediately populate the props into your

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Speaker 1: bet slip on your phone, so be on the lookout

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Speaker 1: for those. Also, March is still the best month of

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Speaker 1: the year, just not for sports, but also forgetting the

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Speaker 1: best deal on Action Pro. You can get Action Pro

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Speaker 1: for just over five dollars a month for the entire year,

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Speaker 1: and for the NCAA tournament you'll get Sean and my

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Speaker 1: player prop projections and experts like Stucky my Calbarys can

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Speaker 1: get their picks in the app thirty minutes before everyone else.

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Speaker 1: So go to Actionnetwork dot Com slash march right now

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Speaker 1: to get on board. All right, So Sean started us

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Speaker 1: off with Mark Sears under three and a half rebounds

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Speaker 1: for Alabama. I'm in the same game here, and I'm

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Speaker 1: also gonna take a rebound under for the same team.

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Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go to Big Cliff Clifford Amory and

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take under seven and a half rebounds. You

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Speaker 1: can get that at minus one forty eight.

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Speaker 2: MGM.

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Speaker 1: I was a little bummed because it was minus one

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Speaker 1: ten earlier today and I had it, you know, fully

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Speaker 1: ready to go. And by the time we get giving

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Speaker 1: it out on the show and moved to minus one forty.

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Speaker 1: But we're still showing value there, and it is showing

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Speaker 1: us that, you know, our picks are still on the

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Speaker 1: sharp side. And kind of as you know Sean alluded

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Speaker 1: to here, there's a lot of similarities. You know, Grant Nelson,

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Speaker 1: he should be back and healthy, his minute should be

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Speaker 1: back up to regular and Grant Nelson's a high rebound guy,

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Speaker 1: so that should take away some of those inside rebounds

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Speaker 1: away from Amory. Also BYU, they shoot a ton of threes,

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Speaker 1: and normally we'd be like, well, they're shooting a lot

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Speaker 1: of threes, that's gonna create more rebound opportunities. But that's

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Speaker 1: already factored into our model, right. So the fact that

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Speaker 1: BYU shoots a ton of threes and forces opponents into

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Speaker 1: shooting a ton of threes.

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Speaker 2: You know, there is more rebound volume.

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Speaker 1: But what our projections really ca can't quite take into

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Speaker 1: account is where those rebounds are going to go. And

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Speaker 1: when you're taking a lot of long threes, those rebounds

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Speaker 1: will go in all sorts of different directions and distances,

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Speaker 1: much more so than you know these inside shots where

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Speaker 1: they tend to just rebounds tend to fall inside as well.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's some hidden value that doesn't even

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Speaker 1: come with our projections there, which maybe you know, a

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Speaker 1: reason why our projections are a.

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Speaker 2: Little too high.

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Speaker 1: Still, And also Amori has actually fared worse against good

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Speaker 1: shooting teams, and as Sean mentioned, BYU is number six

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Speaker 1: and effective field goal percentage. When you look at Amory's,

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Speaker 1: you know, rebounds per minute played, they're lowest when opposing

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Speaker 1: teams shoot really well, it's almost like a second distribution

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Speaker 1: he has, He almost has a bimodal distribution against these

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Speaker 1: really good shooting teams, and it's just a very low

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Speaker 1: rebound total against these great shooting teams. So our projection

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Speaker 1: is probably pretty conservative here, going with seven with a

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Speaker 1: sixty percent chance to say under seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's you know, probably even too high.

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Speaker 1: I think are we could be more aggressive and go

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Speaker 1: more towards six and a half rebounds with beyond a

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Speaker 1: sixty chance of staying under seven and a half rebounds here,

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Speaker 1: So Cliff Amury is my pick one. Also in this

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Speaker 1: Bama b YU game, and before I throw it to Sean,

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Speaker 1: our next picks, both mine and Shawn's will come from

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Speaker 1: this Duke game Duke versus Arizonas if you want to

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Speaker 1: get a chance, you know, to get over flip over

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Speaker 1: from the BYU Bama game to the Duke Arizona game.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you do that now because both our picks

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Speaker 1: will be from that game. So Sean, I'll start you

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Speaker 1: off here as well in this Duke Arizona game. What

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Speaker 1: is your pick here?

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Speaker 5: So my pick for this game is Seon James Duke

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Speaker 5: to go over two and a half assists at minus

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Speaker 5: one ten. This is a game where you know, Arizona

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Speaker 5: play at a faster pace. They generate turnovers below league

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Speaker 5: average rate and send teams to the free throw line

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Speaker 5: at a below average rate. So this is a game

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Speaker 5: where Duke should get off more shots than usual in

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Speaker 5: this game, which could lead to you know, more potential

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Speaker 5: assist chances. Plus, you know, James attempts a shot at

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Speaker 5: the lowest rate among dukes starting five, so that just

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Speaker 5: increases his chances of generating you know, potential assists. He does,

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Speaker 5: you know, tend to stand in the corner quite a bit,

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Speaker 5: but he's generally the one taking the ball up the court,

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Speaker 5: and if he sees something set up early on, you know,

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Speaker 5: he'll make a quick pass that leads to a shot.

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Speaker 5: He did that last game against Baylor. He you know,

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Speaker 5: had a.

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Speaker 2: Nice alley to Cooper Flag.

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Speaker 5: Or you know, he could be part of a play

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Speaker 5: where he dishes it outside. He had an assist on

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Speaker 5: one of Tyree's Proctor's six threes last game. So with

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Speaker 5: Proctor just chucking up a ton of threes and making them,

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Speaker 5: that just gives you on James even more opportunities to

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Speaker 5: kind of get assists and ever since James you know,

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Speaker 5: became a starter twenty nine games ago, he's cleared this

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Speaker 5: sixty five percent of the time. And you know, Duke

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Speaker 5: has been averaging eighty three points a game over that stretch,

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Speaker 5: but their team total is eighty one for this game.

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Speaker 5: So this is right around what we'd expect for Duke

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Speaker 5: in terms of team total.

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Speaker 2: But you know, his minutes have tipical.

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Speaker 5: They've been capped around twenty seven minutes per game. That's

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Speaker 5: because they blow everybody out. If you look, you know,

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Speaker 5: half the time, they win by thirty plus points and

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Speaker 5: he's out of the game and he's only playing you know,

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Speaker 5: twenty five twenty seven minutes. So this is a game

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Speaker 5: where it should be more competitive than most Duke games.

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Speaker 5: So he should, you know, play around his max of

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Speaker 5: thirty one to thirty two minutes. So again, that's just

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Speaker 5: going to raise his floor even more. So we're projecting

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Speaker 5: him closer to three point four assists with around a

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Speaker 5: sixty two percent chance he clears two and a half here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting, you know, you say this should be

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Speaker 1: more competitive, and it's funny because the spread is still

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Speaker 1: nine and a half points and right, you know, we're

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Speaker 1: talking Duke games. They've been blowing teams out of the

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Speaker 1: water left and right. But yeah, Seon James over two

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Speaker 1: and a half assists is Sean's second pick here on

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Speaker 1: our Sweet sixteen prop show, I mentioned mine's going to

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Speaker 1: be from this same game, and I guess I'm going

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Speaker 1: to the theme here, Sean. I'm going with the big

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Speaker 1: man under rebounds because I am taking Duke's common Malawatch

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Speaker 1: under seven and a half rebounds. You can get that

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Speaker 1: at minus one forty, and Duke kind of has had

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Speaker 1: an inflection point in their season. It really is when

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Speaker 1: Patrick and Gungba started getting increased minutes. He's played more

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Speaker 1: than double digit minutes in ten of the last eleven games.

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Speaker 1: So looking just at that particular sample size, my watch

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Speaker 1: has still had seven point eight rebounds per game, which

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Speaker 1: doesn't look good when we're taking under seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: But there's some hidden underlying factors here, Sean, and I

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Speaker 1: love these underlying factors. Two and a half of those

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Speaker 1: games were without Cooper Flag. Cooper Flag is also a

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Speaker 1: high rebound rate guy, and in those three games, two

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Speaker 1: and a half games, I should say, you know, Malwatch

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Speaker 1: had nine to nine to ten rebounds, So that could

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Speaker 1: be really overinflating that seven point eight average and also

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Speaker 1: over inflating just his kind of season long, you know,

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Speaker 1: offensive and defensive rebound rates, because he's increased those rebound

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Speaker 1: rates a little bit artificially. Also, in those eleven games,

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Speaker 1: ten of those came against weaker rebound opposition than Arizona

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Speaker 1: should pose. So if you look at our schedule adjusted rebounding,

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Speaker 1: Arizona was tougher than ten of those eleven opponents. The

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Speaker 1: one that it wasn't tougher then was Illinois. And Illinois

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Speaker 1: has about the same rebound rate as Arizona. They're similarly paced,

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Speaker 1: you know, both of them are up tempo, and actually

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Speaker 1: Illinois a little more up tempo than Arizona, and Malwatch

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Speaker 1: had just seven rebounds in that game. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I think there also was more rebound opportunity against Illinois

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Speaker 1: because Arizona, both offensively and defensively has much higher turnover

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Speaker 1: rates and free throw rates than Illinois. Right, so if

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Speaker 1: you're ending a lot more possessions with turnovers or free throws,

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Speaker 1: those are lower rebound opportunities or even no rebound opportunity

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Speaker 1: possessions on turnovers. But you know at the free throw line.

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Speaker 1: Free throws are higher percentage shots, so there could be

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Speaker 1: even fewer rebound opportunities against Arizona than there was against Illinois.

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Speaker 1: And Malwatch only had seven against Illinois, so we're projecting

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Speaker 1: slightly less than you know, seven rebounds here with again

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Speaker 1: north of a sixty percent chance of staying under seven

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Speaker 1: and a half rebounds. So sean second pick again, Sion

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Speaker 1: James over two and a half assists. I have common

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Speaker 1: mala Watch under seven and a half rebounds in this

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Speaker 1: Duke versus Arizona game.

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Speaker 3: Pad course shots and Mad Scott, suzz A Betaza.

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Speaker 5: And so much.

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Speaker 4: Keep geeving disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots and

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Speaker 4: scores that.

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Speaker 1: We each have one more picked to go. Shawn's final

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Speaker 1: pick will be for Texas Tech versus Arkansas. Mine's gonna

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Speaker 1: come in the other game tomorrow Maryland, Florida. But once again,

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Speaker 1: before we get to those picks, March is still the

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Speaker 1: best month of the year, not just for sports, but

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Speaker 1: also forgetting the best deal on Action Pro. You can

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Speaker 1: get Action Pro for just over five dollars a month

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Speaker 1: for the entire year, and NCAA tournament you'll get mine

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Speaker 1: and Shawn's player prop projections, and our coll experts like

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Speaker 1: Stuckey Mike Calabreys. There picks in the Action app thirty

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Speaker 1: minutes before everybody else gets them. So go to actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com slash March right now to get on board.

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Speaker 1: All right, our final picks are incoming here. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: Sean's game here is going to be Texas Tech versus Arkansas.

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Speaker 1: My game will be Maryland versus Florida. So Sean, let's

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Speaker 1: get to yours for Texas Tech versus Arkansas.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with JT.

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Speaker 5: Toppin of Texas Tech to go over nine and a

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Speaker 5: half rebounds at minus one point eighteen. He has twelve

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Speaker 5: and eleven here in the first two games of the tournament.

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Speaker 5: He's been on absolute fire lately. And this is a

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Speaker 5: game where he should play thirty plus minutes. And looking

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Speaker 5: at this season, any game he's played thirty plus minutes

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Speaker 5: and he's cleared it seventy seven percent of the time.

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Speaker 5: So ten of the thirteen games he played at least

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Speaker 5: thirty minutes, he's cleared this.

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Speaker 2: Seven seven percent of the time.

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Speaker 5: And you know this is you know, a tougher matchup

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Speaker 5: against Arkansas. But the thing with Arkansas, they do tend

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Speaker 5: to take most of their shots inside, which makes it

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Speaker 5: more likely for you know, Top and to be involved

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Speaker 5: in on the potential defensive boards, especially considering Arkansas they

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Speaker 5: don't really crash the offensive glass much, so they're below

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Speaker 5: average in terms of offensive rebound rate, so he's going

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Speaker 5: to be cleaning up a lot of the defense the

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Speaker 5: potential defensive rebounds for Texas Tech. And you know, when

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Speaker 5: Arkansas does shoot from outside, they tend to struggle, so

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Speaker 5: you know, they don't shoot as many threes as your

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Speaker 5: average team, but they do struggle, so there could be

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Speaker 5: some extra boards there to go around as well. So

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Speaker 5: having said all that, we project Top in closer to

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Speaker 5: eleven and a half board, so about too clear of

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Speaker 5: this number, and give him around a sixty three percent

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Speaker 5: chance to clear nine and a half. He just has

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Speaker 5: a really high ceiling in this matchup, because again, most

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Speaker 5: of this is due to the fact that we're projecting

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Speaker 5: him from more than thirty minutes, which gives him a

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Speaker 5: massive floor, and he's cleared it seventy seven percent of

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Speaker 5: the time this year when he does play at least

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Speaker 5: thirty minutes.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, I like it, so JT toppin for

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech over nine and a half rebounds. This definitely

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Speaker 1: looks like a really good spot for him to rack

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Speaker 1: up double digit plus rebounds. So for my pick, we're

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Speaker 1: going over to that Maryland versus Florida game, the only

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Speaker 1: other game left on Thursday that we have yet to

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Speaker 1: talk about, And I am going to go not with

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Speaker 1: Derek Queen, but I'm gonna go with Julian Reese. We

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Speaker 1: like dairy Queen and Reese's pieces as our joke here

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Speaker 1: the inside duo, and I'm going to take Julian Reese

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Speaker 1: over twenty one and a half points plus rebounds plus assists.

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Speaker 1: You can get that at minus one thirty, the only

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Speaker 1: half points plus rebounds available to you. I like the

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Speaker 1: over twenty and a half there as well, if that's

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Speaker 1: your option. But really, any combination of points and rebounds

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Speaker 1: especially I really like as long you can tack and

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Speaker 1: tack on the assists as well. But I wouldn't just

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Speaker 1: go points and assists, is what I'm trying to say here.

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Speaker 1: So over twenty one and a half points plus rebounds

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Speaker 1: plus assists minus one thirty. And the reason I like

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Speaker 1: this angle here is Reese has a higher offensive rebound

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Speaker 1: percentage than his teammate Derek Queen, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: an important angle here because Florida should force Maryland into

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Speaker 1: more inside shots given that Florida allows, you know, just

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Speaker 1: a thirty seven percent shot rate from outside compared to

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Speaker 1: thirty nine percent national average. So Queen's gonna or I

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Speaker 1: should say Reese is going to be taking a lot

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Speaker 1: of those inside shots, so getting points that way. But

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Speaker 1: even if he misses, Florida has a top twenty percent

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Speaker 1: two point percentage defense, so he could be missing a

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Speaker 1: few of them. But Florida is not really dominant on

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Speaker 1: the offensive glass. They're just barely inside the top one

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Speaker 1: hundred by our schedule adjusted defensive rebound percentage, So re

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Speaker 1: should up plenty of chances to grab offensive rebounds and

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Speaker 1: put those back in for some points. So they're kind

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Speaker 1: of correlated here. That offensive rebound plus the points are correlated.

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Speaker 1: Or he could grab that offensive rebound, kick it out

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Speaker 1: to a teammate, they score the points, and he gets

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Speaker 1: an assist that way. So there's some hidden correlation here

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Speaker 1: on those offensive rebounds plus points or offensive rebounds plus

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Speaker 1: assists for Reese. But especially on the points angle, given

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Speaker 1: that Florida likes to force teams a little bit more

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Speaker 1: inside and they have a great shooting defense. So we're

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Speaker 1: projecting around nine and a half rebounds, around thirteen and

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Speaker 1: a half points, and a little more than one assist

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Speaker 1: on average for Reese here, so you know you add

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Speaker 1: all that up, that's around twenty four is our projection

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Speaker 1: for points plus rebounds plus assist, about one less than

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Speaker 1: that if you just do points and rebounds. So gonna

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Speaker 1: go with the Reese over twenty one and a half

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Speaker 1: pr A and Sean has JT. Toppin Texas Tech over

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Speaker 1: nine and a half rebounds as each of our final picks,

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Speaker 1: So that is going to do it for us for

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Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen player prop show. Again, make sure you're

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Speaker 1: following Sean the Underscore Odds Maker and meet Nick Underscore

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Speaker 1: Giffen and the Action Apt to get all of our

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Speaker 1: picks instantly, especially if you're an Action promember, and we'll

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Speaker 1: be given out picks throughout the rest of the weekend,

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Speaker 1: not only for the Sweet sixteen, but the Elite eight

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Speaker 1: as well, and of course on to the Final four,

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Speaker 1: which I'm sure we'll have another show for that as well.

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Speaker 1: But until then, I'm Nick Giffin and Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: We'll see it head of course, shots and mad Scott

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Speaker 3: suzz A Betaza.

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Speaker 1: Show and so much.

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Speaker 4: Just keep geeving, disappearing freshman with a hot hand, shoots

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Speaker 4: and scores that so much.

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Speaker 1: Sign up, you're pro.

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Speaker 3: Oh no, no, mat go little madness in my e

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Speaker 3: let me up my moment Joe Jeez.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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