1
00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You,

2
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680
Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day

3
00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

4
00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or

5
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple

6
00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,960
Speaker 1: Podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

7
00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:25,360
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Another day, another trade skirmish. The

8
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: US went after the European Union for, among other things,

9
00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:34,000
Speaker 1: uh their air bus subsidies as well as wine and cheese.

10
00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,680
Speaker 1: The European Union saying this is ridiculous a proposal for

11
00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:41,520
Speaker 1: eleven billion dollars of goods potentially teriffed by the US,

12
00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,200
Speaker 1: and that they will retaliate in kind. Joining us now

13
00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,960
Speaker 1: to discuss why now? Sean Donnin, Bloomberg Senior Trade reporter

14
00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,240
Speaker 1: here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. Normally he's down

15
00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,920
Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. We are so lucky to have him. Sean,

16
00:00:55,440 --> 00:01:00,320
Speaker 1: Why now? Why now? It's uh, well, let's think back

17
00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:03,120
Speaker 1: to what Donald Trump cares about when it comes to trade,

18
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,120
Speaker 1: and he cares about big deficits, and the US is

19
00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,839
Speaker 1: a big trade deficit with the EU hundred seventy billion

20
00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,160
Speaker 1: dollars or so last year, and he's been gearing up

21
00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:13,920
Speaker 1: for a fund. Yeah, so he's been gearing up for

22
00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:15,920
Speaker 1: a fight. But he has a bunch on his hands already.

23
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:17,960
Speaker 1: He has one with China, he has one he's working

24
00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:19,800
Speaker 1: through the U S. M C. A if I got

25
00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,920
Speaker 1: that correctly, But you know he's got he's got a

26
00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:24,960
Speaker 1: lot of irons in the fire right now with trade. Well,

27
00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,399
Speaker 1: it's a reminder that the trade wars aren't just about China.

28
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,000
Speaker 1: It's they're all over the place. And you know, there's

29
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,400
Speaker 1: a there's a trade war that's still going on in

30
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:34,399
Speaker 1: some ways with Canada and Mexico. Even though you've got

31
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,000
Speaker 1: the U S. N C. It's still tariffs that are

32
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,639
Speaker 1: still in place there. There's negotiations that are gonna get

33
00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:41,200
Speaker 1: underway with Japan. I think there's a This is a

34
00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:43,640
Speaker 1: reminder that a lot of us were thinking that as

35
00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:45,760
Speaker 1: the U. S and China got close to a deal,

36
00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:47,840
Speaker 1: and they are getting close to a deal, we think

37
00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,480
Speaker 1: we're gonna see something in the next month or so,

38
00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:52,840
Speaker 1: um that things were going to calm down. That this

39
00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,560
Speaker 1: kind of shadow that was hanging over the global economy

40
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: of the trade wars was going to go away. Well,

41
00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,440
Speaker 1: it isn't because Donald Trump wants to take on all

42
00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,920
Speaker 1: of these other trading partners like the EU, like Japan.

43
00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,840
Speaker 1: These are big economies that Donald Trump is gearing up

44
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:09,920
Speaker 1: for a fight. Let's go to this one of the

45
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,560
Speaker 1: EU about the aviation. I mean, like if bubbing doesn't

46
00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:14,720
Speaker 1: have enough problems with the seven thirty seven max that

47
00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,680
Speaker 1: now has to deal with with this issue, give us

48
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,880
Speaker 1: a little history here, because these are both industries that

49
00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 1: have been highly subsidized and there's been tariffs for a

50
00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:23,400
Speaker 1: long period of time. It seems like we've been rereading

51
00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:25,960
Speaker 1: about this issue Airbus and Boeing and others for a

52
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,120
Speaker 1: long time. Yeah, this is the longest running fight in

53
00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:30,760
Speaker 1: the w t OH. It's been going on for fourteen years.

54
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,640
Speaker 1: I think there's there's one element of normality about what

55
00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is doing and that uh, these are gonna

56
00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,120
Speaker 1: be tariffs that are likely to be sanctioned by the

57
00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 1: w t OH. This is going to be allowed under

58
00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,760
Speaker 1: global trading rules. And normally Donald Trump wants to go

59
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:47,040
Speaker 1: around a w t O or rail against a W two.

60
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:49,320
Speaker 1: And we saw on tweet today, you know, sighting the

61
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:51,840
Speaker 1: w TO is ruling on the legal subsidies here. It's

62
00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,280
Speaker 1: one of the longest running fights. It's a fight that's

63
00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,400
Speaker 1: that has kind of refused to go away. It's also

64
00:02:57,440 --> 00:02:59,880
Speaker 1: a fight that you hear people in the administration site

65
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,720
Speaker 1: as an example of what is wrong with the w

66
00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,920
Speaker 1: t O and the global trading system. Why is it

67
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,720
Speaker 1: that it takes fourteen years to slve something like this? So, Sean,

68
00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:10,120
Speaker 1: I love that you're here, Sean Donn and he's been

69
00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,680
Speaker 1: coovering trade for a long time. You have a sense

70
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,560
Speaker 1: of what's real and what's not. And what I thought

71
00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 1: was really compelling this morning was when these headlines hit,

72
00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,359
Speaker 1: the market didn't really move that much. You didn't see

73
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,040
Speaker 1: a huge drop in airbus shares, Bowing shares, which have

74
00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,560
Speaker 1: already gotten so beaten up, didn't go down that much.

75
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,120
Speaker 1: And then just in general, there wasn't sort of any

76
00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,360
Speaker 1: kind of reaction. What do you make of that? I

77
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,160
Speaker 1: think when I make of that is that the market

78
00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,400
Speaker 1: has priced in this kind of uncertainty about trade that's

79
00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,160
Speaker 1: been with us for the past year. And and and Terris,

80
00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,520
Speaker 1: this is another volley from Donald Trump. But in some ways,

81
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:46,720
Speaker 1: it's a front that we knew was open in terms

82
00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:50,360
Speaker 1: of the EU. It's also to be frank, it's a dispute.

83
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,480
Speaker 1: It's the airbus bowing dispute that probably puts a lot

84
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,360
Speaker 1: of people to sleep in the markets. It's been around

85
00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,640
Speaker 1: so long. I'll tell you what doesn't put them to

86
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 1: sleep is China trade negotiations. Although you just mentioned earlier,

87
00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,280
Speaker 1: sometime in the next month, this was a deal. We've

88
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,720
Speaker 1: been expecting for the last couple of weeks to get

89
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,680
Speaker 1: an announcement, and you know, I thought they were gonna

90
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,160
Speaker 1: have a golf date at mar Lago and you know,

91
00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 1: maybe sushi. I mean, who knows. But what's what's the

92
00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:18,800
Speaker 1: latest on the China trade negotiations? Are we are both

93
00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,000
Speaker 1: sides making substantive progress or is it just going to

94
00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,680
Speaker 1: be a headline? Do you think so? I think they're

95
00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,279
Speaker 1: making substantive progress. I think there's a sign. You know,

96
00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 1: we're getting signs that there's there's a there's a real

97
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 1: deal that's that's brewing here. What is happening right now? Well,

98
00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 1: the problem with trade is and one of the reasons

99
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 1: that it tends to not get the attention to deserves

100
00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,479
Speaker 1: sometimes in my mind, although I'm a I'm a trade geek,

101
00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,200
Speaker 1: is very simply that drags on, and just when you're

102
00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,760
Speaker 1: exhausted with the trade negotiation, that seems to drag on

103
00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,600
Speaker 1: for another year or another month. Uh. And that's really

104
00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:53,240
Speaker 1: what we're seeing here. These things are hard. I was

105
00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:54,840
Speaker 1: on the fun last last week with someone in the

106
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,560
Speaker 1: administration is close to the negotiations, and he said, look,

107
00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,880
Speaker 1: these things are going, they're going. Well, it's just really hard.

108
00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:05,360
Speaker 1: So just real quickly here, I'm wondering people talk about

109
00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,080
Speaker 1: these trade skirmishes as President Trump's doing. How much are

110
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:13,160
Speaker 1: are many Democrats kind of quietly happy about all this

111
00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,440
Speaker 1: in the sense, not not from sort of like a

112
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,960
Speaker 1: political standpoint, but glad that he's doing and fighting these

113
00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,480
Speaker 1: fights because they think that they're legitimate. So there's a

114
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 1: lot of people in Washington and around the world, to

115
00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,120
Speaker 1: be fair, who think that the fight against China's a

116
00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,960
Speaker 1: legitimate fight. There's some legitimate issues there on industrial subsidies

117
00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,159
Speaker 1: and intellectual property and so on. But what you've really

118
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,359
Speaker 1: pointed to is a big dilemma for the Democrats going

119
00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,279
Speaker 1: into trade, and trade skepticism used to be their issue.

120
00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,679
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's made it his issue, how do they respond?

121
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,600
Speaker 1: Sean Donna, thank you so much for joining us here

122
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,040
Speaker 1: in studio Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. We love having here

123
00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,880
Speaker 1: talking authoring trade. Sean is a senior trade reporter for

124
00:05:49,880 --> 00:06:07,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Well, despite the down market today, the SMP

125
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,720
Speaker 1: is up fifer cent this year. Today, the NASTAC is

126
00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,000
Speaker 1: up almost The question for a lot of investors is

127
00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:19,919
Speaker 1: what's left in the markets, particularly for seeing slowing global growth, uh,

128
00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:23,000
Speaker 1: you know, evidenced by the I m F data this morning,

129
00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,479
Speaker 1: for example. So it help us dig into that issue.

130
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,520
Speaker 1: We welcome David Deets to the show. David is founder,

131
00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,359
Speaker 1: president and chief investment strategist for point View Wealth Management

132
00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:35,360
Speaker 1: in Summit, New Jersey. David, thank you so much for

133
00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:39,120
Speaker 1: joining us. So we did have some weaker growth numbers

134
00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,560
Speaker 1: coming out of the I m F today, I think

135
00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:45,520
Speaker 1: probably giving some of the bears some ammunition that say, gee,

136
00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,240
Speaker 1: this market has really gotten ahead of itself given what

137
00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:54,279
Speaker 1: appears to be slowing global growth. What say you, David, Well, certainly, um,

138
00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:55,719
Speaker 1: that was one of it. That is one of the

139
00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 1: reasons for the sell off today. Um, you know, I

140
00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,120
Speaker 1: would note that the I m F is still UH

141
00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:06,799
Speaker 1: positing stronger growth in two thousand twenty than this year,

142
00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,720
Speaker 1: so they do see the dip in global activity as

143
00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:14,480
Speaker 1: somewhat temporary UM. But you know, I think from an

144
00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,720
Speaker 1: investors point of view, the concerns about global growth are

145
00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:21,480
Speaker 1: not new. And of course what has helped our markets

146
00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,360
Speaker 1: here is that the story has been pretty positive on

147
00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:29,120
Speaker 1: the US economy with the labor markets, unemployment rate about

148
00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:34,840
Speaker 1: a forty year low. UM job creation was just report

149
00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,400
Speaker 1: is very good in March. Consumer sentiment is very strong,

150
00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,840
Speaker 1: small business sentiment is very strong. So I think on balance,

151
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,600
Speaker 1: what we're focused on here is how well the US

152
00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,120
Speaker 1: is doing, how much creasmce. Can we actually give this

153
00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:52,040
Speaker 1: idea that the I m F projections somehow is what's

154
00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:54,560
Speaker 1: driving the market? I mean, is this just basically that

155
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,480
Speaker 1: no one really has an incentive trade and there are

156
00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,440
Speaker 1: a couple of algorithms out there that are kind of

157
00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,800
Speaker 1: like bouncing around a couple of styles, pushing things down

158
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,640
Speaker 1: in touch before we get actual real news. Well, certainly,

159
00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,360
Speaker 1: if you put into the context of the success of

160
00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:10,920
Speaker 1: economists predicting the economy, you do need to take it

161
00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,400
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt. I remember, you know, Warren

162
00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,360
Speaker 1: Buffett saying they put economists on earth to make astrologers

163
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,920
Speaker 1: look respectable. UM. Their track record, quite frankly, has not

164
00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 1: been particularly good. Is we look at the I mf

165
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 1: UM report, we're scratching our heads a little bit because

166
00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,920
Speaker 1: although they're positive for two thousand and twenty, they see

167
00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:34,200
Speaker 1: the two biggest economies in the world, the US and China,

168
00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,520
Speaker 1: being slower in two thousand twenty than two thousand nineteen.

169
00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,000
Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out how that works exactly. But

170
00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,640
Speaker 1: you know, in any event, it's more than just the economy.

171
00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,520
Speaker 1: What it really comes down to is corporate earnings. It

172
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,560
Speaker 1: comes down to interest rates UM, and it comes down to,

173
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,880
Speaker 1: you know, the outlook for global trade. I would say

174
00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,640
Speaker 1: that the biggest factor that has driven the market this

175
00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 1: year is the d eighty degree turn in the position

176
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,199
Speaker 1: by the Federal Reserve from being very hawkish in terms

177
00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,719
Speaker 1: of wanting to hike interrust rates to now being very dubbish,

178
00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:13,959
Speaker 1: and many market UM participants see the next move in

179
00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,559
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve as a cut in interest rates as

180
00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,320
Speaker 1: opposed to any further hikes. I think at the end

181
00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:23,240
Speaker 1: of the day, low interest rates UM promote the US

182
00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:28,120
Speaker 1: housing economy make corporate acquisitions and capital expenditures much more

183
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:30,960
Speaker 1: affordable and them And at the end, I mean people

184
00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,880
Speaker 1: are looking at today, for example, ten year treasury two

185
00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 1: point four eight Very few of us can make our

186
00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:40,440
Speaker 1: long term plans work getting two point four eight percent

187
00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,040
Speaker 1: on our money. So therefore, I think that any kind

188
00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,800
Speaker 1: of pullbacks are ultimately gonna be met with positive buying. So,

189
00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,360
Speaker 1: David were later this week, we're gonna be coming into

190
00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,360
Speaker 1: the beginning of the first quarter earnings period. We've got

191
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,800
Speaker 1: some of the big money center banks. Um I think

192
00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:59,840
Speaker 1: SMP five hundred earnings forecast consensus for four percent decline

193
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 1: or in the first quarter. How are you positioned going

194
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,120
Speaker 1: into the first quarter earning season? Well, so, I mean

195
00:10:07,280 --> 00:10:11,200
Speaker 1: from the macro point of view, Um, yeah, it's it's

196
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,079
Speaker 1: very disconcerting when earnings are the most the biggest driver

197
00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:20,280
Speaker 1: of of stocks to have a forecast for a four

198
00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:22,880
Speaker 1: percent decline you over year. Take that with a grain

199
00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,880
Speaker 1: of salt. For a couple of reasons. One is last

200
00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:28,920
Speaker 1: year's Q one was very much juiced, as it were,

201
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,560
Speaker 1: by the cut in interest rates. That we don't have

202
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:34,280
Speaker 1: a second cut in this year, so that has to

203
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:36,720
Speaker 1: be taken any consideration, and of course, at the end

204
00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,360
Speaker 1: of the day, is not what happened in the last

205
00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,160
Speaker 1: three months. At the end of the day, it's going

206
00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:45,480
Speaker 1: to be what UM market particiption, what these companies forecasts

207
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:50,520
Speaker 1: for the next let's say, nine to twelve months UM so,

208
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,480
Speaker 1: and certainly you can make the case anyway that the

209
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,080
Speaker 1: fact that UM the forecast for earnings is so negative

210
00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:01,880
Speaker 1: now beats and positive surprises will be much easier. UM.

211
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,720
Speaker 1: I think what we're doing here is looking at some

212
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:11,200
Speaker 1: companies where the they have stellar franchises, but the prospect

213
00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:15,640
Speaker 1: for near term earnings is somewhat muted. You mentioned Financials

214
00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 1: one that we like a lot, as wells Fargo. We're

215
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,440
Speaker 1: gonna be hearing from them on Friday. UM. I don't

216
00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,280
Speaker 1: think they're gonna say a whole lot because they're in

217
00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,080
Speaker 1: this period now where their current CEO is stepped down

218
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,559
Speaker 1: there in the process of not only finding a new one,

219
00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,480
Speaker 1: but looking outside the bank. I think the catalyst for

220
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:36,880
Speaker 1: growth for this blue chip franchisees naming a bank executive

221
00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:41,800
Speaker 1: UM which people respect and can turn the bank around.

222
00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:45,120
Speaker 1: Names go ahead, any names that you have that you

223
00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,000
Speaker 1: would like to see rise to the Holme of Wells Fargo. Well,

224
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:54,160
Speaker 1: certainly the UM. There's a number of lieutenants UM in

225
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:58,360
Speaker 1: JP Morgan. They have been cited UM the actually Warren

226
00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,240
Speaker 1: Buffett UH is very high on JP Morgan and they're

227
00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,680
Speaker 1: probably frustrated because Jamie Diamond seems to have no current

228
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:10,199
Speaker 1: plans to leave. I think that would make some sense there. Um,

229
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:14,840
Speaker 1: why would Jamie Diamond go from JP Morgan to Wells Fargo.

230
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,400
Speaker 1: I misspoke there. Jamie Diamond is not going to move,

231
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:23,360
Speaker 1: but people who want his job under him UM would

232
00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,760
Speaker 1: be perhaps interested in taking over arguably bank just as

233
00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:31,560
Speaker 1: good at JP as JP Morgan. Immediately. So we we

234
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,280
Speaker 1: had Walgreens pre announced, and I know that's the name

235
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,839
Speaker 1: we've talked about in the past. For you, that side

236
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,959
Speaker 1: of the business, that prescription business, the retail business very difficult.

237
00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,960
Speaker 1: What are you views on on Walgreens? So Walgreens is

238
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:46,040
Speaker 1: a company that that we moved on to our BI

239
00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:49,320
Speaker 1: list right now is trading in about eight times earnings

240
00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:52,880
Speaker 1: versus a market that said about seventeen times earnings. You know,

241
00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:57,000
Speaker 1: although much of retail has been gutted by the rise

242
00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:01,880
Speaker 1: of the internet shopping, we still feel that buying prescription drugs,

243
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,080
Speaker 1: going in and talking with the pharmacist UM is not

244
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:09,000
Speaker 1: so easily displaced by buying online. Plus, of course, all

245
00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:13,280
Speaker 1: these pharmacies are now developing clinics so that it could

246
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:15,520
Speaker 1: be a low cost option to get a check up,

247
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:19,120
Speaker 1: to get some medical care at at at a lower rate.

248
00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,760
Speaker 1: And of course you're always looking for those companies which

249
00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:25,560
Speaker 1: have size and scale. Walgreens and CBS almost have a

250
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:30,000
Speaker 1: duopoly in in this country. Put Walgreens in the context

251
00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 1: of healthcare. General healthcare is under a cloud. It's usually

252
00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:36,360
Speaker 1: a defensive sector. Right now, of course, everyone's uh, the

253
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:41,199
Speaker 1: pace of prescription drug inflation has been reduced dramatically. Uh

254
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,599
Speaker 1: do the jaw boning from politicians on both sides of

255
00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:46,720
Speaker 1: the aisle. Of course, there's some concerns as to whether

256
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:50,840
Speaker 1: we'll fundamentally change the system to a single payer. What

257
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:55,199
Speaker 1: has happened historically is those have been unbelievably great opportunities

258
00:13:55,240 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 1: to take healthcare UM investment because normally, Uh, the fear

259
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:05,200
Speaker 1: goes away, the threat of price controls dissipates, the system

260
00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,079
Speaker 1: doesn't change, and it can be a great way to

261
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,840
Speaker 1: see appreciation on your investment. David DIDs thank you so

262
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,160
Speaker 1: much for being with us. David DIDs is founder, president,

263
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:16,679
Speaker 1: and chief investment strategist at Point View Wealth Management, based

264
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:36,840
Speaker 1: in Summit, New Jersey. We have been in a low

265
00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:40,480
Speaker 1: interest rate environment for more than a decade. We have

266
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:44,240
Speaker 1: been looking at robust credit markets, easy learning standards pretty

267
00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,400
Speaker 1: much across the board. So there's kind of a mystery

268
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,640
Speaker 1: that's been baked into certain corners of credit markets, in

269
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,320
Speaker 1: particular the auto lending sector, which is seen delinquencies rise

270
00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,080
Speaker 1: to a post crisis high in some cases, as well

271
00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,080
Speaker 1: as the high defaults and delinquencies among some pure to

272
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,720
Speaker 1: peer loans. Joining us now to dig under the hood

273
00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,920
Speaker 1: and explain perhaps why we're seeing that is Adam Tempken,

274
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,680
Speaker 1: credit market supporter for Bloomberg News, joining us here in

275
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Inner Active Broker Studios. So Adam, let's just

276
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 1: start there. What are people looking at for the possible

277
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,960
Speaker 1: cause for the uptick intolinquencies and defaults at a time

278
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 1: of easy credit. Well, Goldman Sachs and Moody's analytics have

279
00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:25,600
Speaker 1: recently said credit scores they do not include economic cycles,

280
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: but economic cycles greatly influenced credit scores. So as the

281
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:34,120
Speaker 1: economy has expanded so have the scores. The problem is

282
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,680
Speaker 1: people's inherent risk, their inherent ability and attitude towards paining

283
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 1: is the same. So a five fifty subprime person today

284
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,760
Speaker 1: is relatively riskier than a five fifty and two thousand nine,

285
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:49,400
Speaker 1: and that could be a hidden risk. So the idea

286
00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 1: here is the FICO scores, which are used by many

287
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,360
Speaker 1: peer to peer lenders, and some of these smaller deep

288
00:15:55,400 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 1: subprime lenders are not as reliable exactly. The scores are

289
00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,440
Speaker 1: migrating up, but the risk is the same, and the

290
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 1: question is are lenders accounting for that? Are they raising

291
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:11,360
Speaker 1: their minimum FICO cutoffs? While Moody's Analytics and Goldman says

292
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 1: some of them, the smaller ones maybe unsophisticated deep subprime auto,

293
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 1: they're not. They're not bringing in like debt to income

294
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 1: or LTV to have. It's not a good differentiator differentiator anymore,

295
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 1: these FICO scores, and this is leading to hidden risk

296
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 1: in certain corners deep subprime, private credit cards, and peer

297
00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 1: to peer marketplace lending. The categories you just mentioned kind

298
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,480
Speaker 1: of harkened me back to ten or twelve years ago. Okay,

299
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 1: so are you trying to tell us or is Moody's

300
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 1: and Goldman trying to tell us that the lending community

301
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 1: had not really learned the lessons, or is kind of

302
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 1: those lessons have kind of receded into the background, because

303
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,840
Speaker 1: this sounds eerily similar. Well, the good news is that

304
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 1: some of the larger banks and savvier lenders are including

305
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 1: other factors. The worry is complacency with some of the

306
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 1: waller lenders like deep Subprime Um and some of the

307
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:07,679
Speaker 1: smaller online personal loan lenders. They may not be increasing

308
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,080
Speaker 1: their minimum credit scores, they might not be bringing other

309
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 1: factors in. And Goldman is a little worried about this,

310
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,640
Speaker 1: and Moody's is saying there could be great complacency from

311
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,159
Speaker 1: these lenders that could lead to losses down the road.

312
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 1: All Right, so let's put this into some scope here,

313
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 1: because there's a question how much debt is there that

314
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,399
Speaker 1: is backed by loans that are underwritten with Phyco scores

315
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,360
Speaker 1: for first and foremost in the mind. I mean, that's

316
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:33,199
Speaker 1: how how much we talked about here. Well, this is

317
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 1: probably not a systemic problem. If you look at just outstandings,

318
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 1: it's about four hundred billion dollars worth across those areas

319
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 1: that I just mentioned. However, not all of that is securitized,

320
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,359
Speaker 1: So maybe one fourth of that is securitized hundred billion

321
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:52,720
Speaker 1: or so approximately, So this is not systemic. However, the

322
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 1: problem is it's a great risk for lenders. It's a

323
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,040
Speaker 1: great risk for some of the investors in the deep

324
00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 1: subprime A B s. Okay, and that's what I was

325
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 1: going to ask. So a hundred billion dollars of these

326
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,960
Speaker 1: loans have been securitized. It means they've been pulled uh

327
00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,560
Speaker 1: into bundles and then their bonds that are sold that

328
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,360
Speaker 1: are backed by the payments that go into those pools,

329
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,200
Speaker 1: and they're they're sort of given out to the investors

330
00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,920
Speaker 1: depending on which trunch they invested in, and depending on

331
00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:17,840
Speaker 1: on what the credit rating is and where they are

332
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 1: in the waterfall structure. So I'm wondering, from your perspective,

333
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 1: who are the investors and the riskiest trunches here? I mean,

334
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 1: is there is there a sense of, oh, that's your

335
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,640
Speaker 1: pension fund. Pension funds are look going all the way

336
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 1: down to double B and deep subprime. Auto asset managers,

337
00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 1: I mean across the board people pretty much think these

338
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,400
Speaker 1: types of auto loan A B s are safe and

339
00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,360
Speaker 1: they've generally performed well, although I have to say, uh,

340
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 1: thirty day delinquencies for subprime auto A B s are

341
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 1: at close to a peak. Now does that translate to losses?

342
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 1: Here's where it gets tricky. There could be great delinquencies,

343
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 1: it doesn't always translate to a loss right away because

344
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: there's such credit protections robusts. Uh, these are structured very well,

345
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 1: but a lot of the banks are now saying do

346
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 1: not buy lower rated you know, auto deep subprime A

347
00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 1: B s, stay away the personal loan a bs that's

348
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 1: been securities only over the last few years performing pretty

349
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 1: pretty poorly right out of the gate, honestly, very high delinquencies.

350
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 1: We've not really seen a tightening of underwriting yet, but um,

351
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 1: a lot of people stay away from that stuff, that

352
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,639
Speaker 1: type of peer to peer assepect securities, which is a newer,

353
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,240
Speaker 1: untested asset class. So it looks like Moody's and the

354
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,479
Speaker 1: Golden The reports here kind of shedding some light on

355
00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 1: this issue, which we've heard a little bit about certainly,

356
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 1: but maybe not the scope. Has there been any regulatory

357
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 1: response or how are the regulators looking at this little

358
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 1: slice of the market. There's definitely been a lot of

359
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 1: focus on subprime auto um. The the bond investors always say, hey,

360
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,880
Speaker 1: we think this is safe. You know, uh, there's great protections.

361
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,960
Speaker 1: But you know, the Federal Reserve came out February saying, hey,

362
00:19:57,000 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 1: auto dilinquencies are at seven million. People are hind on

363
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:04,359
Speaker 1: their payments. So this is kind of a growing theme.

364
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 1: Warning signals are flashing, and some of the regulators are

365
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 1: slowly getting involved. You know. It seems to me like

366
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 1: one of the biggest consequences of this is to sty

367
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 1: me the peer to peer lending industry before it really

368
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 1: had a chance to gain steam, Paul, because that seems

369
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,960
Speaker 1: to be one consequence they're having a harder time making

370
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 1: money if the credit qualifications just aren't there. Yes, and

371
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: we've had some period of peer folks in here before

372
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 1: talking about kind of how they have a demand for

373
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,400
Speaker 1: their business because some of the banks have stepped away

374
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 1: a little bit. So very it's very interesting, and I

375
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: think it's the story we're gonna hear more about going forward.

376
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: Adam Temptin, thank you so much, Credit Markets reporter for

377
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Joining us here in a Bloomberg eleventh three

378
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: yo studio in New York. Well, we are fast approaching

379
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 1: the April fifteen deadline, people are scrambling to get their

380
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 1: returns done. A lot of tax law changes this year

381
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 1: for people to get their hands around, including new tax

382
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: law changes around alimony and child support. To get the

383
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: latest on this, we welcome our next guest, Maggie John Drow.

384
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: She's financial advisor and founder of John Drought Wealth Management.

385
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 1: She joins us live here in Interactive Broker studio. Maggie,

386
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us again. A

387
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 1: lot of tax law changes that people have to figure

388
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 1: out this year. Talk to us a little bit about

389
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: the alimony child support changes that are in this year's

390
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 1: tax code. Sure, thank you for having me. So, if

391
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:43,199
Speaker 1: you were divorced on December thirty one, two eighteen, or

392
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: prior to your divorce decree remains the same unless you

393
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 1: decide to amend it. But if you were divorced on

394
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 1: January one, two thousand, nineteen or thereafter, alimony has now

395
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,239
Speaker 1: is different for you the way it is taxed. Uh

396
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,239
Speaker 1: So it's essentially flopped um. In the past, those that

397
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: were paying alimony could take that as a tax deduction,

398
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 1: and that is no longer the case for those after

399
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 1: January one two has a nineteen and those that are

400
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: receiving the alimony, this is no longer taxable income for you. Okay,

401
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 1: So basically it makes it more expensive for people who

402
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: have to pay alimony. That's right. So how does this

403
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,680
Speaker 1: How have you seen this affecting clients so far? Yeah? Absolutely,

404
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,359
Speaker 1: so this is fairly new so at time when we

405
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 1: tell but experts are concerned that while thinking about and

406
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 1: finalizing your divorce decree, there's going to be less incentive

407
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 1: to provide greater alimony. Much as you said, Um, so,

408
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: of course that might be worse in general for the markets.

409
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 1: There'll be less money being injected into goods and services,

410
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,920
Speaker 1: of course, But I'm wondering from your practical experience, whether

411
00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: it is affecting, uh, the ability of certain people to

412
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,639
Speaker 1: get the other partner to actually pay alimony. Yes, that

413
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 1: is a fear that that's going to but it hasn't.

414
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 1: You haven't seen a plan. It's it's been so new

415
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 1: that not not really yet know. So Maggie, why why

416
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 1: did the I R S do this? Yeah? Absolutely, um,

417
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: I mean no one really knows what the I R

418
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: S does. Well, they're hoping that it will make things

419
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 1: easier right. So they've also increased um the standard deduction

420
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 1: so that less people are itemizing, and this is probably

421
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: another way to get people to take the standard deduction

422
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 1: versus itemizing UM. Certainly though some analysts you believe it

423
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 1: will raise revenue for the I R S over the

424
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 1: next decade or so. So I'm wondering just broadening out

425
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: some of the other tax changes. The salt issue is

426
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 1: one that is very much in the forefront of people's minds.

427
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 1: How is that bearing out from your perspective as you

428
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: talk with clients. Yeah, we're here in New York and

429
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 1: New Yorkers and others in the try Ster area, Connecticut,

430
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 1: New Jersey. They are being affected the most. They've always

431
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: taken the greatest salt deduction historically. So now, as you mentioned,

432
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: there's a cap of ten thousand dollars as to what

433
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: can be deducted from the federal taxes, and so um

434
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: both from an alimony standpoint being taken away as a deduction.

435
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: Now at the cap of the Salt Tact tax deduction

436
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 1: and also at the standard deduction being increased, a lot

437
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: less people are itemizing. So you know, it seems like

438
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: it's a cat and mouse game between the I R

439
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 1: s and tax advisors every year, it just kind of

440
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 1: goes back and forth. So now you've got this issue

441
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: about the alimony and divorce. Are there ways that, you know,

442
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 1: maybe tax advisors are suggesting their clients can preserve maybe

443
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: some of the tax benefit. Sure, I mean I always

444
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 1: encourage everyone to speak to their cpay about their individual situation.

445
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 1: Um but there are still those that will be taking

446
00:24:55,880 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 1: the itemized deduction, certainly if you have to do ducked

447
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 1: more than twenty four thousand, if you're married, filing jointly,

448
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 1: and of course the standard uh ways apply, So maxing

449
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 1: out that four oh one k your retirement plans, of

450
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: course is a great way to UM to to increase

451
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: your your deduction. So people your client has been kind

452
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: of freaking out as they realize how different it can

453
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 1: be for them. Yeah. I think most surprisingly was that

454
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: the tax brackets were changed. So we still have seven,

455
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: but obviously where those brackets falls different and therefore the

456
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: withholding table has changed. And I think a lot of

457
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,199
Speaker 1: clients did not realize that they did not work with

458
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: their employer to reflect that, and so people are either

459
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: not getting as much of her turn back or they're

460
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: actually owing the government money, which I think has been

461
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: the most surprising. Maggie Jendre, thank you so much for

462
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: being with us. We really appreciate you having here. Uh.

463
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 1: Maggie Jendre is financial advisor and founder of Gendrew Wealth Management,

464
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 1: joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. Thanks

465
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You

466
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or

467
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on

468
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa abram Woyit's I'm on

469
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa abram woits one before the podcast. You

470
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio