WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Kaminski, Devitt & Hot Dogs

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single.

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<v Speaker 2>Best idea on a Friday in the summer. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>not a normal Friday in the summer. There have been

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<v Speaker 2>other August Fridays. Nineteen ninety eight is seared in my memory.

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<v Speaker 2>It was something I've had the honor not once but

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<v Speaker 2>twice to speak at length with the Nobel Laureate Myron

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<v Speaker 2>Shoals about the August of nineteen ninety eight, to speak

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<v Speaker 2>to cliff Asnas John Boegel about it extraordinary. This isn't

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<v Speaker 2>like nineteen ninety eight, but what we have all been

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<v Speaker 2>through in the last ten days is just absolutely extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to take time here in a six

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<v Speaker 2>minute podcast to go into the details or frankly my

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<v Speaker 2>thoughts on it, but the resiliency, the depth of the

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<v Speaker 2>American financial system is jaw dropping. I mentioned Arthur Levitt,

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<v Speaker 2>of course, of Bloomberg, the former SEC chairman who brought

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<v Speaker 2>stability to the individual investor, and I really think some

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<v Speaker 2>of this depth started with his first principal work at

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<v Speaker 2>the SEC years ago. Kaptain Kaminski is absolutely expert at

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<v Speaker 2>this prodigious academics out of the Massachusetts Institute of technology

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<v Speaker 2>trend was shattered. Katie Kaminski on trend.

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<v Speaker 3>What happens when you have such a big move is

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<v Speaker 3>that its trend signals a lot. So you have to

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<v Speaker 3>think a little bit about the type of trend filter

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<v Speaker 3>that you're using. Some models are going to be much

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<v Speaker 3>more like your classic moving averages, and those really adjust

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<v Speaker 3>aggressively when you have that type of move. But you

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<v Speaker 3>can also use other types of models that may sort

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<v Speaker 3>of windsor eyes or remove some of the outliers, and

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<v Speaker 3>those may not be as much affected. But the truth

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<v Speaker 3>is there may be information in this recent event that

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<v Speaker 3>could be foreboting for potential trends to come.

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<v Speaker 2>Katie Kaminsky off simplex. I can't say enough about this.

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<v Speaker 2>There's two basic types of trading and investing. What is

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<v Speaker 2>trend based, where you get you know, you have a

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<v Speaker 2>belief system, and you get on a trend, and you

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<v Speaker 2>stand the trend, the trend's broken, you get out. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>we all understand that. The other is what's called stochastics,

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<v Speaker 2>which is trying to be much more cute, much more

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<v Speaker 2>find the perfect point less get in the trend and

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<v Speaker 2>find the perfect moment. Of course, the cliche is to

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<v Speaker 2>catch a falling knife in the dark. But stochastics versus

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<v Speaker 2>trends and everything I've done here with Bloomberg on the

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<v Speaker 2>economy in Bloomberg's surveillance is about trend following, trend persistency,

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<v Speaker 2>and a great respect for getting out when the trend

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<v Speaker 2>is shattered. Kaminsky hesitant, but I really have say still

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<v Speaker 2>says there is a bull market trend that is hugely

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<v Speaker 2>in sync with IF. In devot of Monetta, arguably the

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<v Speaker 2>most prestigious academics of anyone we speak to. Her set

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<v Speaker 2>of academic excellence out of Ireland, out of the United

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<v Speaker 2>Kingdom is jaw dropping her work. Really, I really really

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<v Speaker 2>listen to IF and devt really with some great perspective

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<v Speaker 2>here she is on into twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm not going to I think sixty forty to

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<v Speaker 4>use your expression no longer cuts the mustard. It would

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<v Speaker 4>be clearly a balanced portfolio that has gone somewhat out

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<v Speaker 4>of favor. We saw that in twenty twenty two. Both

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<v Speaker 4>sides of that portfolio behave poorly, and now we have

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<v Speaker 4>a situation where even the smallest retail vester is starting

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<v Speaker 4>to look around the corner at alternatives so I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 4>say sixty forty. I would actually advocate for far more

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<v Speaker 4>diversification today than than sixty forty. But I also wouldn't

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<v Speaker 4>say staying in cash is going to work so well

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<v Speaker 4>when we all know that interest rates are coming down.

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<v Speaker 2>Evan Dubitt of Mondetta, what a joy. Last week they

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<v Speaker 2>have David Gura, surveillance lobster correspondent. We got a huge

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<v Speaker 2>response to that August tradition, so much so that Gura

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<v Speaker 2>sent in a photograph from Reds was cast it what

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<v Speaker 2>he does. You can't believe this, Boks. I mean, you

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<v Speaker 2>talk about criminal activity. Gura and missus Gurra leave the

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<v Speaker 2>kids in the line at Reds which stretches halfway to

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<v Speaker 2>Calais while they go antique shopping, and wiscast it. It's unbelievable,

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<v Speaker 2>the cruel and unusual punishment. And we said good morning

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<v Speaker 2>to Reds and all the great lobster houses that are

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<v Speaker 2>part of the surveillance world. This week it was the

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<v Speaker 2>image of hot dogs and what does that mean? Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you to the Warrington family, Mamaronick, New York, just north

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<v Speaker 2>of New York City. Our w Apple Junior at the

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<v Speaker 2>New York Times years Ago called it the best hot

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<v Speaker 2>dog in America. It is a hot dog of one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and five years. Walter's Dogs celebrates their one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and fifth anniversary of employing kids in Mamarnac with muster Damien,

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<v Speaker 2>says our expert on Walter's Dogs. Here is surveillance hotdog

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<v Speaker 2>correspondent Eric Ween or Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a tiny little hot dog stand. It's been there forever.

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<v Speaker 5>It's legendary. People do come from distances to go there,

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<v Speaker 5>but it's really a locals thing. Like every little league's

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<v Speaker 5>team goes there after they win. My Fabrica childhood exactly exactly,

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<v Speaker 5>And the hot dogs are excellent. They like do this

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<v Speaker 5>weird thing with the They like dip them in butter

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<v Speaker 5>or whatever, and then they put them on the griddle

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<v Speaker 5>and oh it's awesome, and then they split it and

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<v Speaker 5>so it's sort of crispy, and the bun is excellent.

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<v Speaker 2>Gotta go, I'm hungry. So other is my childhood of

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<v Speaker 2>this was swegelhots, reds and whites, zwigelhats and good morning,

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<v Speaker 2>Don and Bob's in Western New York. I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>it's there anymore. Walter's Dogs is there still and always forever.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a great week. Look for us on Android Auto,

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<v Speaker 2>on Apple car Play. Look for us on YouTube. Blown

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<v Speaker 2>away by the international success of what we're doing on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>Particularly good evening to all of you on a Pacific

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<v Speaker 2>rim This is on Apple podcast single best idea,