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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jaileye. We bring you

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Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

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Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance, an Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Everybody seems to

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Speaker 1: be saying this morning and over the last few weeks,

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Speaker 1: expect volatility. This is the line from City Expect volatility.

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Speaker 1: Because we are no longer at the beginning of this cycle.

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Speaker 1: Leadership becomes less clear at this time in the cycle,

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Speaker 1: and while the leadership will narrow, it can also be

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Speaker 1: quite shoppy. Let's get to Christine Bitterly, City Regional head

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Speaker 1: of Investments for North America's Christy, let's start there. Why

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Speaker 1: should we expect volatility? So when we look at any cycle,

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Speaker 1: right when you're you're looking at the beginning of a cycle,

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Speaker 1: that's where you see the strongest rallies. And we've see

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Speaker 1: in that over the past twelve months, we've seen essentially

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Speaker 1: everything moving up and and there's been periods of different leadership,

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Speaker 1: very clear periods of whether it was growth versus value

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Speaker 1: COVID defenses versus COVID cyclicals. But now the leadership isn't

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Speaker 1: quite clear, and so one of the things that has

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Speaker 1: investors very, very nervous and why we're expecting volatility is

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Speaker 1: that realized volatility in US equity markets are at the

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Speaker 1: lowest end of the twenty year range, in the single digits.

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Speaker 1: And you can see this through the market action that

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Speaker 1: we've seen. We've not had one pullback of five per

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Speaker 1: cent or more in one This has only happened twice

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Speaker 1: since nineteen and well, we've had a couple of pullbacks

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Speaker 1: of about three percent, they've been bought very very quickly,

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Speaker 1: and so I think this has a lot of investors wondering, Okay,

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Speaker 1: well we actually see realize volatility rise, and will that

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Speaker 1: put us into what is actually a pretty normal equity

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Speaker 1: market of a couple of pullbacks of five per cent

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Speaker 1: or more and even up to one of ten percent.

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Speaker 1: But Kristen, is this the same equity market as ten

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Speaker 1: thirty years ago? And I'm looking at the dominance of

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Speaker 1: the big names, I'm looking at the composition that has

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Speaker 1: actually performed very differently depending on which sector of the

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Speaker 1: market you're looking at. I mean, can we get a

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Speaker 1: broad based five percent draw down given how much money

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Speaker 1: and given how selective people are with respect to sector selection. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a great point, right when we're looking at the

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Speaker 1: rally that we've seen even year to date, there has

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Speaker 1: been a lot of breakdown in correlation so up until

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Speaker 1: even recently, right the under performance of small caps when

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Speaker 1: you look at what we went through with with the

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Speaker 1: delta variant, almost like a mini kind of what we

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Speaker 1: went through last year in terms of tech coming out

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Speaker 1: ahead as opposed to value really dominating the first on

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Speaker 1: half of the year. I think what the market is

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Speaker 1: going to differentiate going forward, and this is where we're

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Speaker 1: allocating in our portfolios, is to quality. So this becomes

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Speaker 1: much more a conversation around those companies with strong balance

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Speaker 1: sheets that have the ability to grow their earnings, have

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Speaker 1: the ability to grow their dividends, which is very important

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Speaker 1: in this rates environment, and so earnings are really going

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Speaker 1: to drive this conversation and fundamentals going forward. So a

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Speaker 1: flight to quality. You have a lot of other calls

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Speaker 1: to get a little bit more defensive within this equity market, Kristen,

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Speaker 1: But is it time to go to cash? So we

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Speaker 1: do not believe it's time to go to cash. So cash,

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Speaker 1: there's really multiple purposes of cash. Right from an investor perspective,

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Speaker 1: one of course, have a safety net, have your operating

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Speaker 1: cash what you need. But in terms of an investment,

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Speaker 1: right now, when we look at the inflationary pressures, this

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Speaker 1: is an asset that's guaranteed to lose money. And so

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Speaker 1: if you want some tactical cash in your portfolio because

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Speaker 1: you are there to buy the dip, you can confidently

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Speaker 1: buy the dip. There's some value in that. But what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing in a lot of investors portfolios, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen this for several months, is a lot of cash

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Speaker 1: sitting on the sidelines. So this is no longer about

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Speaker 1: an investment decision. This is really someone trying to market time,

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Speaker 1: which doesn't work in the short run or the long

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Speaker 1: run for that matter. Christan, just to conclude, I want

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Speaker 1: to go through this research report and might get really

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Speaker 1: clear some of the think that you're highlighting. Lumber down

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Speaker 1: sevent since May on all down thirty percent of the

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Speaker 1: same time period, Chinese equities down thirty percent is the

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Speaker 1: middle of February. Brasilian equities getting hammered as well. US

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Speaker 1: small camps down to performing is the middle of March

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Speaker 1: at the time of publishing those numbers are assume were correct,

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Speaker 1: and I'm sure they're still there and they're abouts the same,

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Speaker 1: christin what's the punch line here? So the punch line

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Speaker 1: is despite a lot of the central bank support and liquidity,

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Speaker 1: markets are differentiating, right, and that's that's quite healthy. I

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Speaker 1: think what you need to do as an investor again

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Speaker 1: always bringing this back to actionable ideas and what we

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Speaker 1: can do within our portfolios, is this becomes a period

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Speaker 1: of being selective. Right, this is not a market of

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Speaker 1: everything is going to go up, everything is going to win,

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Speaker 1: and so being selective not only in terms of regions

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Speaker 1: of the world that you're in, as you've been discussing

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Speaker 1: all morning, but also in terms of security selection because

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Speaker 1: there will be winners and losers based on fundamentals and earnings.

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Speaker 1: Christ and always got to cash out with you. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for being with us. Christin Biddley there of city people

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Speaker 1: have missed out on the upside, how much becomes above

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Speaker 1: love and response where if in doubt by right and

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Speaker 1: this idea that if you miss out, you will just

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Speaker 1: keep missing out, because that's how it has been over

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Speaker 1: the past twenty years. What breaks that paradigms brund shooting.

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Speaker 1: Now we can do that with Northwestern's Mutual Wealth Management

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Speaker 1: chief investment strategist Brend your words, investors and the three

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Speaker 1: camps they fall into right now, Those were the economy

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Speaker 1: is growing too fast, those worried growth is peaking, and

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Speaker 1: those worried stock valuations are simply too high. Are you

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Speaker 1: in any of those three camps right now? Brent, No,

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Speaker 1: It was something we worried about. So we got to

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Speaker 1: mayor June and economic growth was finally strong, COVID cases

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Speaker 1: were declining, and we all set around and thought about

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Speaker 1: what is next. And I think as you've kind of

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Speaker 1: been tweaking, lisagested that people were worried about those three

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Speaker 1: things occurring. That was where the worries were. We see

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Speaker 1: each one of those subsiding as you move towards the

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Speaker 1: end of the year, and that to us means a

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Speaker 1: higher equity market led by more cyclical aspects of the market.

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Speaker 1: So think value stocks, think uh, small cap stocks, and

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Speaker 1: think the Eurozone, and so we do think there's room

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Speaker 1: left to run. It's just you've had this defensive versus

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Speaker 1: cyclicals defenses have really won the day over the summer.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's because of those three worries, and

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Speaker 1: I think each one of those three pulls back into

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Speaker 1: the end of the year, and I think that's the

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Speaker 1: impetus for the rally that we expect to occur. Bright,

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Speaker 1: Let's try to put some quantification around how much room

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Speaker 1: there is to rally. What kind of returns are you

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Speaker 1: expecting are you shooting for with the likes of a

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Speaker 1: small cap bet at this point in the cycle. Well,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think everything is less than it was before, correct,

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Speaker 1: And so if I think back to last year, we

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Speaker 1: went overweight equities with an uncertain outcome, but but the

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Speaker 1: opportunities that was so wide. I think about today, I'm

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Speaker 1: a bit more certain about what the economy holds pushing forward.

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Speaker 1: There are still, as always uncertainties, but the opportunity set

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Speaker 1: is smaller, and so I think about relative performance more

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Speaker 1: and I think small caps are set to outperform their

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Speaker 1: large cap counterparts, and the Eurozone is set to outperform

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Speaker 1: probably both of those and so much much more muted returns,

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Speaker 1: but still in the contact of a tenure treasury. As

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Speaker 1: you opened the show at one two three. Whatever it

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Speaker 1: is today, stocks are still a relative valuation advantage towards

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Speaker 1: bonds and that isn't changing until the ten your treasury changes,

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Speaker 1: and that's still where central banks are impacting the most. Well,

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Speaker 1: brend I'm glad you brought that up because we were

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Speaker 1: having a conversation in the previous hour about big tech

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Speaker 1: and how it was kind of unusual that we had

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Speaker 1: record highs for the Fang stocks yesterday on a day

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Speaker 1: when yields actually rose. But when we saw the low

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Speaker 1: for the NASDAC one hundred this year, it was on

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Speaker 1: March eighth, and the tenure treasury yield was at one

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Speaker 1: sixty on that day. We are still twenty five basis

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Speaker 1: points below that. So can you make a case really

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Speaker 1: against big tech if yields kind of stay in this range? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: And I mean I think it's more of an economic

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Speaker 1: growth and what's keeping the treasury in that range? And

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Speaker 1: so is it tapering as a distortion? Is it just

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Speaker 1: a lot of liquidity around the globe? Um? I just

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Speaker 1: think the small cap in the cycnical trade to me,

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Speaker 1: is more tied to strong economic growth that I think

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Speaker 1: people were worried about or peaking. UM. If anything, it's

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Speaker 1: a plateau. You have companies with huge amounts of new

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Speaker 1: orders hugh backlogs order UH and low inventories. You have

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Speaker 1: consumers with incredibly strong balance sheets who have probably been

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Speaker 1: pushed out just a bit because of what Delta has done.

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Speaker 1: And so I think you continue to see economic growth

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Speaker 1: that remains strong. I'm not for sure what the tenor

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Speaker 1: Treasury does. I expected to have an upward biass tapering

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Speaker 1: is announced, but I think all those things point to

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Speaker 1: an economic cycle that lasts just a bit longer and

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Speaker 1: is a bit higher for a while. UH and valuation.

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Speaker 1: We think many economic cycle investors are ignoring still points

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Speaker 1: to small caps and value stocks are being cheap relative

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Speaker 1: to their counterparts brand. You mentioned small caps, small caps

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Speaker 1: over large caps. You mentioned cheap. A lot of people

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Speaker 1: would say Europe cheap in the Owned States, and we've

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Speaker 1: said that for a long long time. You touched on

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Speaker 1: the euro Zone and talked about the potential for our

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Speaker 1: performance there. What do you like about Europe? Bren It's

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Speaker 1: much more cyclically inclined, and so they set up of

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Speaker 1: the index is much more cyclical in nature. Europe has

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Speaker 1: been cheap for a while. It was in need of

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Speaker 1: a catalyst. It actually has that now the Central Bank

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Speaker 1: there has done things quite frankly, that they hadn't done

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Speaker 1: in the past. Germans have even gone on a fiscal

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Speaker 1: stunding spree. And so I just think that you have

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Speaker 1: strong cyclical economic growth for really the first time in

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Speaker 1: ten years to twelve years, and I think that's a

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Speaker 1: backdrop for yours on stock Stanley being appreciated by investors. Brent.

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Speaker 1: There's a column in the Telegraph by Ambrose Evans Pritcher

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Speaker 1: talking about how Germany does. Those seem to be losing

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Speaker 1: patients with quantitative easing, and they're starting to indicate perhaps

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Speaker 1: they don't want to keep the pedal going for as

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Speaker 1: long as they have for the foreseeable future. This really

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Speaker 1: bleeds into the potential for taper talk tomorrow at the

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Speaker 1: ECB meeting. If they were to start talkering and talking

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Speaker 1: about tapering, their QUI will that change your view on Europe? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's certainly a risk. And I think of UM, the

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Speaker 1: Central Banks right now is three yards in a cloud

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Speaker 1: of dust. So sorry, Jonathan, just a different football game

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Speaker 1: than you're used to, UM. But they're advancing the ball

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Speaker 1: slowly to try not to get any market reaction, and

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Speaker 1: I think central banks around the globe, I think people

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Speaker 1: need to stop focusing on their day to day operations

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Speaker 1: and focus on their action function. And it's still to

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Speaker 1: do more, not to do less. Certainly the years on,

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Speaker 1: probably a bit less than the US, but in general,

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Speaker 1: overall central banks stand at the ready and we'll continue

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Speaker 1: to do so until there's a cost on either side.

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Speaker 1: Right now, I know there's talking inflation, but that cost

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Speaker 1: is still relatively low. Interest rates are well behaved, and

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Speaker 1: they've failed on their mandate for ten years. They're going

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Speaker 1: to push as hard as they can for as long

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Speaker 1: as they can, as long as inflation allows them to

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Speaker 1: do so. And I just think that as you move

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Speaker 1: into the end of the year, inflation is going to

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Speaker 1: pull back and that taper talk and everything else going

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Speaker 1: to subside just a bit. Is that football with the

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Speaker 1: hands they used the hands for the hands, three yards

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Speaker 1: in a cloud of dust towards the goal line. Is

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Speaker 1: this good? Is this a good? Tom Keane? It's an

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Speaker 1: oblong round ball. Thank your French Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management

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Speaker 1: chief investment strategist. I'm pleased to say that my good friend,

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Speaker 1: my old buddy Bloomberg's Manners Cranny standing by in Cairo.

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Speaker 1: Mannus go to hear from you, sir, and just look

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Speaker 1: at that chair. If only the could see this on

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Speaker 1: radio A palatial Mannas Cranny this morning, Jonathan, New York,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for the welcome. Yes, we are

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Speaker 1: in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at a very timely moment.

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Speaker 1: Were joined by his Excellency Summer Chokri, the Foreign Minister

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Speaker 1: for Egypt. Sir, thank you for having us into your office.

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Speaker 1: Is at a grand home. It's an interesting time in

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Speaker 1: our region. Biden is delivering on Trump's plan to leave Afghanistan.

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Speaker 1: That is done. What does that mean for the Middle

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Speaker 1: East for you? Certainly, the ongoing conflict in in Afghanistan

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Speaker 1: and Iraq has burdened the region quite substantially over the years,

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Speaker 1: and the departure, of course from Afghanistan has its ramifications

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Speaker 1: and will be followed and deliberated upon within the context

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Speaker 1: of uh the other region. Tomorrow we have a meeting

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Speaker 1: of the Ministerial Arab League and that issue will will

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Speaker 1: come will be a focus of discussions between the ministers. Undoubtedly,

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Speaker 1: transformation of this nature and this magnitude will have interesting repercussions,

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Speaker 1: and we are wait to see what those repercussions are

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Speaker 1: in terms of how the the new Taliban government will operate,

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Speaker 1: how it will sustain the commitments that it has made,

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Speaker 1: and and how we can have a the security and

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Speaker 1: the stability of the region within the newly existing situation.

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Speaker 1: But do you see this as a disengagement by the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration making this region more unstable? Uh? No, I

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Speaker 1: don't think the United States has a superpower, as a

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Speaker 1: power with both interests and very deep relationships with the

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Speaker 1: countries of the Middle East, is in a position or

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Speaker 1: can disengage. I think it will continue to rely on

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Speaker 1: its traditional relationships and partnerships among them with Egypt strategic ally,

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Speaker 1: and will continue to extract its interests and also provide

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Speaker 1: the security and the stability that the region needs. My

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Speaker 1: assessment as I got on the plane to come to

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Speaker 1: Carl is there is a tectonic shift in discussions between

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Speaker 1: the nations here in the Middle East. Would you describe

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Speaker 1: that between yourselves and and Turkey, the UAE and Turkey,

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Speaker 1: there is in my mind a tectonic shift. Do you agree?

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Speaker 1: Not necessarily, I agree that the region is undergoing a

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Speaker 1: very turbulent and volatile situation where there has been, of course,

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Speaker 1: conditions that have not been readily contributing to the peace

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Speaker 1: and security of the region. We have conflicts in Libya,

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Speaker 1: in Yemen, in of course, the situation of terrorism and

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Speaker 1: and the threats the current situation in Syria and Lebanon.

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Speaker 1: These are all issues that have to be addressed, and

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Speaker 1: I think it is in the best interest of the

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Speaker 1: nations of the region to uh expand the communications and

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Speaker 1: the understandings that can provide for the security and stability.

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Speaker 1: You're a boy to enter blind too of discussions with Turkey.

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Speaker 1: Egypt Turkey upgrade bilateral relationship. What does that mean? Will

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Speaker 1: you store diplomatic ties at this stage? This is the

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Speaker 1: second round of exploratory talks between Egypt and Turkey. This

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Speaker 1: comes at the invitation of the Turkish government. We have

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Speaker 1: ben eager to find a resolution and to find the

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Speaker 1: necessary formula for regaining the normal relations between the two countries.

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Speaker 1: But I think at this stage we still have to

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Speaker 1: evaluate the the outcome of this second round of discussions

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Speaker 1: and primarily the context of the bilateral relations. The bilateral

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Speaker 1: relations and certain measures that were taken by Turkey need

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Speaker 1: to be somehow addressed, and when we are satisfied that

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Speaker 1: those issues have been resolved, that will open the door

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Speaker 1: for further progress. I have a lot to get through,

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Speaker 1: and time, of course, is a natural enemy. But if

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Speaker 1: I say to you in a suctinct way, what do

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Speaker 1: you need to see from the text to move forward

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Speaker 1: to restore a by lateral relations, what would that be.

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Speaker 1: We have provided Turkey with a with our assessment and

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Speaker 1: our requirements. I think they very well comprehend and can

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Speaker 1: fulfill all of these issues, and we hope that they

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Speaker 1: do so that we can move forward on the renaissance. Damn.

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Speaker 1: It's a very contentious issue, obviously, and you've tried to

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Speaker 1: arbitrate with Ethiopia, and several times President CC has said

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Speaker 1: all options are on the table, including military action. Sir,

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Speaker 1: are you prepared to take military action against Ethiopia? The

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Speaker 1: President has never indicated that he would be taking military action,

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Speaker 1: But I think the terminology has always been that for

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Speaker 1: any country, all options are always open, and we have

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Speaker 1: committed ourselves to the negotiating process. We have endorsed the

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Speaker 1: negotiations over the last ten years, and we have supported

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Speaker 1: the negotiations of the African Union under the chairmanship of

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Speaker 1: Presidents Acadia, and they'll continue to seek an enhanced stroll

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Speaker 1: for the observers to help the parties to find a resolution.

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Speaker 1: Would you do everything to avoid conflict? Definitely. I think

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Speaker 1: nobody seeks conflict. We have been committed over ten years

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Speaker 1: to a peaceful resolution of this issue based on international law,

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Speaker 1: based on best practice, and I think we are still

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Speaker 1: would seek that the political will of the Ethiopian government

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Speaker 1: is demon strated by signing an agreement. Thank you very

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Speaker 1: much for joining us, Foreign Minister, thank you for the

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Speaker 1: welcome to the country. I hope that we come back again.

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Speaker 1: Sally Schell create the Foreign Minister for agent joining me. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's been a great trip and I've got to say

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Speaker 1: when it comes to when it comes to offices, sir,

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Speaker 1: I think you're on a winning trade. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Sick joining us now is the man himself, David Rubinstein,

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Speaker 1: the co founder of the Carlisle Group, but of course

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Speaker 1: the host of its fantastic show, Reid Hoffman, a really

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Speaker 1: important person to be talking to at this moment where

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Speaker 1: we see this tech battle really heating up between the

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Speaker 1: US and China. Where did he sort of throw his

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Speaker 1: hat in terms of which region had the upper hand

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Speaker 1: in this tussle. There's no doubt that the Silicon Valley

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Speaker 1: has had the upper hand for decades. But he does

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Speaker 1: think that China is now competing effectively with the United States.

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Speaker 1: And you have these two polar opposite in effect, China

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Speaker 1: with one system for entrepreneurial activity and Silicon Valley with another.

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Speaker 1: And he thinks that China is doing what he calls

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Speaker 1: blitz scaling, which means building very large companies. That's what's

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Speaker 1: happened in the United States with Amazon and Apple and Netscape,

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Speaker 1: very large companies that operate at scale. And he thinks

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Speaker 1: that China is doing the same thing. Well, that's the

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Speaker 1: bigger picture. And yet the micro picture has been an

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Speaker 1: increasing crackdown on some of these behemoths, and some of

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Speaker 1: the blitz creeged companies are the companies that have benefited

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Speaker 1: from their approach. How does he view that, I mean,

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Speaker 1: does he believe that that will foster innovation and the

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Speaker 1: potentially put a damper on it by raising regulatory uncertainty. Well,

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Speaker 1: clearly in China wants to make it clear that the

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Speaker 1: Chinese government is the most important thing in Chinese society,

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Speaker 1: and once the entrepreneurs recognized that they can go about

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Speaker 1: their business. But clearly China doesn't want companies that are

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Speaker 1: more powerful than the President of China or their entrepreneurs

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Speaker 1: being more powerful, so they have had some kind of

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Speaker 1: crackdown or or regulatory constraints. We haven't had quite the

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Speaker 1: same thing in the United States. So the American entrepreneur

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Speaker 1: are free to build companies without the kind of constraints

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Speaker 1: and concerns that now some people have in China. Well,

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Speaker 1: talking about building companies, David, it's it's Kaylee Lines in

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Speaker 1: New York. Good morning to you. You mentioned their Apple, Amazon,

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Speaker 1: these behemous we have seen grow here in the US.

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Speaker 1: Does he believe that those companies are getting too large? Well,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't say that in part because remember he is

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Speaker 1: a person I think he's still on the Microsoft board.

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Speaker 1: He's sold linked In, which he built to Microsoft, so

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Speaker 1: he'd be difficult for him to say that Microsoft is

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Speaker 1: becoming too big and too powerful, So he doesn't really

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Speaker 1: say that. He does say that we now have five

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Speaker 1: of these gigantic technology companies United States, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get ten of them soon. So a company that like

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Speaker 1: say Salesforce will become one of those kind of companies,

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Speaker 1: or Netflix will become one of those kind of companies,

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Speaker 1: which they are are big now, but they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: much much bigger. So he doesn't worry because he thinks

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be more and more of these gigantic companies,

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Speaker 1: not fewer and fewer of them. And are those the

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Speaker 1: kind of companies he's interested in getting into now or

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Speaker 1: what would you favor? Well, he's a venture investor. He's

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Speaker 1: at Graylock, very good venture firm. He's an entrepreneur who

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Speaker 1: built linked In and helped to build PayPal, but he's

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Speaker 1: also a venture investor. He was an early investor in Facebook,

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Speaker 1: an early investor in Airbnb. So he likes to find

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Speaker 1: young entrepreneurs who are really talented, have a good idea,

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Speaker 1: and back them. So he's an unusual mix of being

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Speaker 1: an entrepreneur and a venture investor and a very successful

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Speaker 1: angel investor as well. David yourself also being a pretty

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Speaker 1: big investor in companies at the earlier stages. There is

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Speaker 1: a question of what the structure of such dominant tech

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Speaker 1: behemoths at the top does for innovation for some of

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Speaker 1: the smaller companies. In other words, how much of a

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Speaker 1: competitive competitive advantage can they have and how much UH

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Speaker 1: can they get with respect to data, which reigns supreme.

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Speaker 1: There's no doubt that the large technology companies now have

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Speaker 1: a lot of data and they're using it, they would say,

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Speaker 1: for their purposes, their corporate purposes. But there's always going

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Speaker 1: to be entrepreneurs, always somebody with a new idea, somebody

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Speaker 1: that is very creative. And he likes to back people

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Speaker 1: who he thinks have a vision of where they to

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Speaker 1: go and have the capability of getting there. And it's

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Speaker 1: a different skill set than being an entrepreneur, where you

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Speaker 1: have to have the vision yourself and build a company.

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Speaker 1: But reen Hoffman is a very talented individual, and when

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Speaker 1: he's in the room, it's pretty clear he's always the

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Speaker 1: smartest person in the room. But he doesn't tell people that,

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Speaker 1: and so he has a certain modesty that I think

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Speaker 1: reflects the fact that he's very secure in who he

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Speaker 1: is and he's very well respected by his colleagues. Lots

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Speaker 1: of times you have very bright people and behind their back,

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Speaker 1: people are snickering about them because their egos too big,

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Speaker 1: or they're not as talented as they think. That's not

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Speaker 1: the case with Reid David. I want to bring the

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Speaker 1: conversation back to where we started, and that is China.

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Speaker 1: We've heard a chorus of large name investors over recent

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Speaker 1: weeks kind of weighing in on the debate and whether

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Speaker 1: or not you can invest there. You have George Soros

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Speaker 1: on one side saying that would be a tragic mistake.

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Speaker 1: You have Black Rock and Ray Dalio on the other.

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Speaker 1: I'm just wondering what your take is on China given

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Speaker 1: the crackdown that we are seeing. I think George Soros

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Speaker 1: this point had to deal with geopolitical issues and government

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Speaker 1: constraint issues and things that are different than whether China

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Speaker 1: is going to old companies that if you invest in

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Speaker 1: them you'll do well. As a general rule of thumb,

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Speaker 1: I do think investing in China will produce very good profits.

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Speaker 1: You have to get comfortable with some of the constraints

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Speaker 1: who have in China, but there's no doubt there constraints

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Speaker 1: in lots of countries as well. So I wouldn't say

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Speaker 1: that China is not a good place to invest. I

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Speaker 1: think it's a very good place to invest, but there

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Speaker 1: are some challenges you have to get comfortable with. And

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Speaker 1: you have to get comfortable that some of the governmental

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Speaker 1: actions are not gonna be ones you might be comfortable

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Speaker 1: with if they were happening in this country. For example,

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Speaker 1: as you shift focused at all with respect to your

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Speaker 1: your your appreciation of China investments, even with Jijimping's recent

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Speaker 1: pronouncements around the common good, well right now, you have

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Speaker 1: to remember China has one point three billion people and

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a gigantic market for some time.

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Speaker 1: But the Chinese governmental system is different than Americans, and

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Speaker 1: you have to get comfortable with that. And so if

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Speaker 1: you're not comfortable with that, then you can invest in

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Speaker 1: many other places. But if you're comfortable with the fact

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Speaker 1: that China is going to have a heavy regulatory hand

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Speaker 1: in things, you can you can get comfortable with investing there.

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Speaker 1: We have invested there, I have invested there. I'm not

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Speaker 1: pulling out of China. I think it's actually a very

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Speaker 1: good place to invest. But every country has its challenges.

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Speaker 1: The United States has challenges too. You can't argue that

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Speaker 1: we have all the kind of governmental actions that everybody

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Speaker 1: has come from with here either. David Rubinstein, you make

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Speaker 1: a very valid point. Nobody would disagree David Rubinstein, host

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Speaker 1: of Perit Peer Conversations on Bloomberg Television Television, a co

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Speaker 1: founder of the Carlisle Group. Don't miss that at nine

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00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: pm tonight, Reid Hoffman, an entrepreneur who helped co found

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Speaker 1: linked In, speaking about the landscape for technology at a

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Speaker 1: time when it really is pre eminent. This is the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays

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Speaker 1: international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Tom keene In. This is Bloomer