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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by FanDuel on

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Speaker 2: Mike Calabreys, and this is our College World Series Final preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm joined by our baseball expert, Colin Wilson, and before

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Speaker 2: we get to the final, we have to discuss the

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Speaker 2: game of the year in college baseball. It lived up

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Speaker 2: to the hype. It was supposed to be a pitching

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Speaker 2: duel for the.

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Speaker 3: Ages, and it was.

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Speaker 2: Rhet Lauder comes in eighteen to zero in his starts.

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Speaker 2: Wake Forest had won every single game that he started

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Speaker 2: on the season. He gives them seven innings, six k's,

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Speaker 2: zero runs on the board. Paul skeins, does him want

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Speaker 2: better pitches eight innings, nine k's, but really with chips down,

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Speaker 2: LSU made two of the top plays of the game.

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Speaker 2: Tray Morgan saves the day coming in from first base,

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Speaker 2: ends up picking up a bunts down the first baseline,

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Speaker 2: a little short arm flip to home saves the season

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Speaker 2: for LSU. And then the eleventh inningk Tommy Tanks doing

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Speaker 2: what he does, catches a slider hanging just a little bit,

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Speaker 2: drives into left field, puts the Bayou Bengals into the

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Speaker 2: National Championship final, which will be a rematch of the

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen final against the Florida Gators. So Colin, let

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Speaker 2: me get you involved to your first question. Paul Skeen's

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Speaker 2: his legacy coming in fifteen and two thirds in Omaha,

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Speaker 2: only gave up two runs, two walks, twenty one k's

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Speaker 2: Is it that or is it the fact that LSU's

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Speaker 2: fan base consumed over twenty nine thousand jello shots?

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Speaker 3: What's more impressive in your opinion?

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Speaker 4: I would love to give Skeens all the credit, and

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Speaker 4: I would definitely love to credit the LSU fan base

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Speaker 4: for bringing in the jello shots. Although for as many

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Speaker 4: times as I've been down in the quarters, I know

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Speaker 4: how much they can drink. I'm not surprised that they

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Speaker 4: broke the record at all. I think really the most

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Speaker 4: surprising thing that's happened up to this point in Omaha

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Speaker 4: is that the LSU bullpen has somehow figured it out

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Speaker 4: that is not a leaky boat. They fixed the patches.

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Speaker 4: We've got guys that haven't had any starts, guys that

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Speaker 4: have barely had any appearances. They're just coming out. They're dealing,

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Speaker 4: they're keeping leads, they're protecting leads and that is not

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Speaker 4: something that we expected from the LSU bullpen. And if

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Speaker 4: they can keep it up to be able to extend

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Speaker 4: through the loser's bracket just to give schemes a shot,

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Speaker 4: very impressive. I think the bullpen definitely needs a.

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Speaker 2: Call out, and we have to also give a shout

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Speaker 2: out to Michael Massey for wake, you know, pitching. I

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Speaker 2: believe it was three or four innings of a relief

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Speaker 2: and he looked masterful. They obviously go to their closer

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Speaker 2: there at the ends, first pitch ends up giving the

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Speaker 2: game winner up. But overall, I agree the bullpens were

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Speaker 2: the story there. Thatcher heard talk to me a little

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Speaker 2: bit about him because you mentioned throughout our preview series

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Speaker 2: that LSU's bullpen was a little bit patchy. You know,

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Speaker 2: they were hoping to be able to get through and

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Speaker 2: to not necessarily have to go through the loser's bracket

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Speaker 2: to be able to win this because of their pen.

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Speaker 2: What does it mean to them from a confidence perspective

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Speaker 2: that they can now rely on them, because honestly, they're

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Speaker 2: probably gonna have to do it in game two, patchwork

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Speaker 2: together a bullpen start against the Gators.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Thatcher heard is a really big piece of the

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Speaker 4: LSU bullpen, but is he really a part of the bullpen?

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Speaker 4: Because he gets I think he's third most and starts,

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Speaker 4: so you know, he is the definition of a Tampa

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Speaker 4: Bay Rays pitching staff guy. He can start and give

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Speaker 4: you three innings, he can come in as a blue guy,

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Speaker 4: and really he hurts LSU's projections because on the season

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Speaker 4: he's got a six four nine ERA, he's got a

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Speaker 4: FIP of five point five to six. So when I

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Speaker 4: do projection sometimes I want to pull thatcher Herd's name

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Speaker 4: out of being the stopper or the closer role for

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Speaker 4: them because he kind of actually hurts their projections although

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Speaker 4: he's pitching much better. But if thatcher Herd is able

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Speaker 4: to give three innings from the pen, or if he's

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Speaker 4: able to give four innings as a starter, that makes

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Speaker 4: LSU definitely a tougher out here against Florida.

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Speaker 2: So fans in the pod, they definitely want to hear

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Speaker 2: your breakdown of the pitching matchup. So let's start here

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Speaker 2: in game one. Projected it's probably going to be sprote

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Speaker 2: against Floyd. Do you give Florida the edge in game.

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Speaker 4: One barely minus one oh six was the number for

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Speaker 4: Floyd against Sprout, with Florida having a little bit of

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Speaker 4: an edge there. I think the one thing that's surprising

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Speaker 4: is for all these games, we've cashed so many unders

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Speaker 4: in Omaha. In Game one, not only do I make

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Speaker 4: this a pick, but the total was much higher. It

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Speaker 4: is ten point five to eight that I came in at.

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Speaker 4: I think everybody should be cognizant of the fact that

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Speaker 4: the wins are changing. In this little forty eight hour break.

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Speaker 4: Everyone's been cashing under is like crazy. But now the

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Speaker 4: wind is shifting because it's Omaha and it's the Midwest,

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Speaker 4: and it's going to be blowing fifteen miles an hout,

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Speaker 4: fifteen miles an hour out over the walls, and I

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Speaker 4: think that helps the better offense, and in my opinion,

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Speaker 4: the better offense has been LSU so far.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting.

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Speaker 2: Both teams are top three in terms of home runs

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Speaker 2: on the season, but LSU does seem to rely on

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Speaker 2: those power bats in the middle of their lineup a

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Speaker 2: little bit more when it comes down to Game two.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned earlier, it's probably going to be a

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Speaker 2: bullpen game for LSU, Although Nate Ackenhausen the Juco transfer,

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Speaker 2: comes in out of nowhere, pitches the best game of

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Speaker 2: his LSU career in a must win situation against Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: Do you think they hand him the ball with an

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Speaker 2: expectation of him going five innings or is this more

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Speaker 2: give us his best you have, you know, maybe get

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Speaker 2: six outs and then we'll hand the ball over to someone.

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Speaker 3: Else in the pen.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean this is this is how you know

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Speaker 4: LSU is on a mission here and how they you

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Speaker 4: know they if there is a governing body that has

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Speaker 4: blessed the team and said, we know you're going to

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Speaker 4: make it all the way and you're gonna an amazing

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Speaker 4: thing happens. Amazing things happen. It's Nate Hackenhausen and his

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Speaker 4: zero starts on the year, only fifteen appearances, barely averaging

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Speaker 4: a CAPE or any When he throws twenty two innings

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Speaker 4: on the year, and he comes in and he is

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Speaker 4: a key starter that gets LSU to the next game

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Speaker 4: while passing through the loser's bracket, I think they build

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Speaker 4: on that confidence and they give him game two so

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Speaker 4: that Jack I'm sorry, so that Paul Skans can get

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Speaker 4: another day of rest, which I think if he pitches

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Speaker 4: Game three. What is that four days rest? He looked

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Speaker 4: fine pitching on five days six days rest, first time

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Speaker 4: he's done that all season. But yeah, Game two is

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Speaker 4: absolutely a But I think Nate Ackenhausen they're going to

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Speaker 4: let him go out there. If you look at his

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Speaker 4: season numbers, he averages not even two innings per appearance.

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Speaker 4: But if he can give like he did in the

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Speaker 4: game that he wanted the loser's bracket, then LSU. You know,

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Speaker 4: my projection is Hurst and Walder minus one seventeen against

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Speaker 4: Nate Ackenhausen. It is that close, So I'm not surprising

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Speaker 4: all that the market opened up the series price minus

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Speaker 4: one ten on both sides.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about the Florida bullpen here for a second,

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Speaker 2: because Jack kagleone is potentially the Game three starter, but

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Speaker 2: they may need to use him in a critical moment

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Speaker 2: in Game two, just because they've had so many close games.

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Speaker 2: They've gone to their pen, They've gone to their closers

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Speaker 2: so often. What do you think the chances are we

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Speaker 2: see the collegiate shohe Atani at some point in Game

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Speaker 2: two if they have a chance to close out LSU.

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Speaker 4: If Herston Walder doesn't have it early, then you're I

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Speaker 4: think you're absolutely going to see him because they're going

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Speaker 4: to need somebody to save the bullpen and give them

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Speaker 4: about five innings. And I'm not sure if Florida and listen,

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Speaker 4: they you know they've been it's been an interesting managerial

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Speaker 4: decisions the entire Omaha. I mean, between accidentally making a

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Speaker 4: seventh mounda trip and having to pull your closer out

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Speaker 4: there and Brandon Neely that happened once to Florida. They've

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Speaker 4: tried to bunt guys that popped it up and had

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Speaker 4: key outs. I mean, it's there have been some interesting

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Speaker 4: decisions by Florida coaching and they've still made it here

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Speaker 4: to the Championship Rown. But I absolutely think if person

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Speaker 4: Waldroup can't go, which he's expected to go five and

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Speaker 4: a half innings that's his season average. If you can't go,

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Speaker 4: you're gonna get Jack haglanon in there, try to give

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Speaker 4: them some quality innings or Game three.

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Speaker 2: If we do get to schemes, he pitches another gem,

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Speaker 2: they win the National Championship. Where does he fall in

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Speaker 2: the overall history of the College World Series from a

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Speaker 2: pitching dominance perspective, You know you've had Steven Strasburg. You've

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Speaker 2: had these huge giants have gone on to incredible professional careers.

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Speaker 3: But what's at stake for him?

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Speaker 2: If he can give them one more gem in this run.

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Speaker 1: You can get above Rocker Lighter, you can get above

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Speaker 1: a lot of some of the legendary names that have

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Speaker 1: been pitchers, because anyone that wins a College World Series

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Speaker 1: has an ACE that is generally averaging two strikeouts per inning, untouchable.

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Speaker 4: Every team has had one that's won the College World Series.

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Speaker 4: But you know, Skens is special in the fact that

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Speaker 4: not only are you going to see him do this

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Speaker 4: he's allowed to earn gruns, but not only going to

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Speaker 4: see him do this, but he's going to be playing

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Speaker 4: on an MLB roster. And I bet you he is

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Speaker 4: running out of a team's bullpen in August and in September.

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Speaker 4: This is not a player that you just stuff in

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Speaker 4: triple A and hope is everything works out. He will

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Speaker 4: be coming out of an MLB bullpen here in a

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Speaker 4: couple months. So he has the ability to be one

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Speaker 4: of the best of all time. If they get to

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Speaker 4: a Game three and he closes it out all by himself,

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Speaker 4: throwing nine innings and LSU gets to win, he gets

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Speaker 4: to argue for the title of greatest pitcher on a

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Speaker 4: College World Series winning team.

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Speaker 2: Ever, now you've talked a little bit about your projections

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Speaker 2: for game one, Game two, potentially Game three, how difficult

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Speaker 2: is it to be able to punch in these numbers

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Speaker 2: with out of season series between LSU and Florida. This

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Speaker 2: is what's frustrating in the Mega Conference era. And we're

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Speaker 2: not even to the sixteen team SEC yet, But the

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Speaker 2: fact that these guys did not match up either in

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Speaker 2: the regular season or the conference tournament, does that make

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Speaker 2: it more difficult or in some cases is it you know,

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Speaker 2: you're thrown out regular season stats anyway.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Florida and LSU did not play this

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Speaker 4: year in SEC play. They did play last year. And

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Speaker 4: when you cross check all the pitchers, Brandon Sprot's the

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Speaker 4: only one that saw some of this LSU line up

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Speaker 4: last year. That Dylan Cruz was in the line of

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Speaker 4: last year and Brandon Spote svand Sprote went I think

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Speaker 4: he went two innings and got knocked around a little bit,

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Speaker 4: so we didn't see much of the LSU lineup. So

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Speaker 4: there's really no history here, And you know, what that

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Speaker 4: means is is this high flying offensive LSU that averages

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Speaker 4: eight and a half runs per game. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: the first time they're going to see people's sliders and cutters,

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Speaker 4: and I believe we're set up for some really good

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Speaker 4: live vetting on totals because when you see a pitcher

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Speaker 4: for the first time and you don't I mean, you

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Speaker 4: know the book and you know is stuff, you haven't

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Speaker 4: actually seen it yet. And I think after you kind

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Speaker 4: of work the count through the first time, through the

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Speaker 4: first three innings and everybody gets a look at the

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Speaker 4: arsenal and what they have, I think the runs will

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Speaker 4: start up after that. But it's really to the advantage

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Speaker 4: of the pitcher. It's the same thing in MLB, right

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Speaker 4: you back, these pictures get called out of nowhere. In

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Speaker 4: Double A and Triple A. They'll come up and have

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Speaker 4: a quality start, and then once the book gets out

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Speaker 4: after two or three starts in Major League Baseball, they

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Speaker 4: absolutely get hammered because you know what's in there. So

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Speaker 4: it's the same thing with college. Right. So these pitchers

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Speaker 4: for LSU and Florida have arsenals, and I think after

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Speaker 4: the first time through the lineup, they'll get it figured out.

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Speaker 4: So I think there's going to be some pretty big

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Speaker 4: opportunities to bet some live overs.

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Speaker 2: Now, an opportunity for you to put your name on

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Speaker 2: the line here, who do you like in the series

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Speaker 2: and getting into the weeds a little bit, do you

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Speaker 2: think there's any value on playing the team that loses

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Speaker 2: game one from a live perspective to go and win

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Speaker 2: game two in game three and come back.

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Speaker 4: I don't think LSU is ever going to be out

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Speaker 4: of this, and right now they have the momentum while

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Speaker 4: Florida has a little bit of a slide edge when

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Speaker 4: it comes to team pitching staff that is using the

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Speaker 4: numbers on the year, and this LSU bullpen has been

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Speaker 4: fantastic in Omaha. So I kind of sway away from

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Speaker 4: getting my head out of a spreadsheet looking at the

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Speaker 4: product on the field, and LSU just seems like a

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Speaker 4: team of destiny. Yes, they had the narrative that they

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Speaker 4: have one good starting pitcher and the rest of the

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Speaker 4: pitching staff is leaky, but they have hatched up those holes.

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Speaker 4: Now this is an offense that averages almost a full

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Speaker 4: run more per game than Florida does and a pitching

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Speaker 4: staff that isn't giving up earned runs out of the bullpen,

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Speaker 4: so I like, allis you to win this, But I

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Speaker 4: think market entry is really important here. Minus one ten

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Speaker 4: has been open on the series. I believe that the

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Speaker 4: gambling public is going to say, well, Skemes can't pitch

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Speaker 4: till game three. This has got to be a Florida bet.

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Speaker 4: So I expect Florida to finish up probably minus one

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Speaker 4: twenty minus one thirty, and if I can get LSU

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Speaker 4: at even or plus one ten, that's definitely the bet

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Speaker 4: that I'm going to make.

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Speaker 2: Let's turn out to the Wilson Weather. I guess you

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Speaker 2: know station at this point, I was tailing a lot

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Speaker 2: of your totals based on the weather and the wins

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Speaker 2: information that you were passing on on Twitter. Game one,

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Speaker 2: if it opens at ten and a half, it's.

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Speaker 3: An overplay for you.

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Speaker 2: Is there any point if the market corrects that it

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Speaker 2: would be a pass?

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Speaker 3: You know, eleven eleven and a half? Is that too

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Speaker 3: rich for your blood?

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Speaker 4: I think at eleven and a half I would pass,

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Speaker 4: although I do think there's going to be run scored.

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Speaker 4: So the win for everybody that you know that's been

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Speaker 4: following along my projections for all these games have been

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Speaker 4: anywhere from like eight point four up to nine point six,

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Speaker 4: and totals for some reason that keep getting posted at

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Speaker 4: eleven and a half and closing at nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: I can't understand why they were opening so high. It's

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Speaker 4: been a great opportunity for all of us to catch

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Speaker 4: some unders. But that ships now and the weather was

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Speaker 4: blowing straight in from left, straight in from right, thirteen

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Speaker 4: miles an hour. You saw TCU, one of the most

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Speaker 4: explosive offenses in the nation, have a handful of doubles,

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Speaker 4: one home run, and all the games that they played.

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Speaker 4: The teams that have been so high and slugging have

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Speaker 4: just been zapped. The teams like LSU that know how

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Speaker 4: to hit doubles, triples, advanced runners, Dylan Cruizes, stealing bases,

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Speaker 4: taking walks, those are the you know, that's the team

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Speaker 4: that's going to thrive. But now look at this Midwest weather,

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Speaker 4: complete shift and wind. It is now blowing from home

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Speaker 4: plate straight out to center field. It's going to be

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Speaker 4: blowing around fifteen miles an hour on Saturday. After those

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Speaker 4: storms pass through, the wind is expected to continue. So

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Speaker 4: these are over games now. Game one, Game two, I

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Speaker 4: project them ten point five ten point one. So these

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Speaker 4: oddsmakers are like, well, we should open it up at

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Speaker 4: nine and a half because that's where we've been and

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Speaker 4: that's where kind of where the games have, you know,

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Speaker 4: settle that that's a chance to betten over. So I

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Speaker 4: am anxiously awaiting to bet a over here with the

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Speaker 4: wind blowing out.

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Speaker 3: One thing we have to mention is the run line.

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Speaker 2: Really in this episode, our previous episodes, Florida winning three.

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Speaker 3: One run games.

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Speaker 2: Do you think that's a mentality kind of that's how

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Speaker 2: they want to grind out those victories. Is their value

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Speaker 2: in taking the run and a half?

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Speaker 3: Obviously having to lay major juice in a game that's

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Speaker 3: probably going to go off as a coin flood.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't take Florida minus one and a half. They

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Speaker 4: have been playing close games, and actually I've been cashing

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Speaker 4: on the other side because Florida has been inflated all

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Speaker 4: year long. Their numbers, instead of being maybe a minus

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Speaker 4: one twenty, it's been a minus one eighty or a

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Speaker 4: minus one fifty is actually a minus two to fifty,

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Speaker 4: and that has given us a little avenue to go

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Speaker 4: and pick up run lines. Run lines in baseball betting

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Speaker 4: are the best in college because when people hear brand names,

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Speaker 4: power five names filled with blue chip players, that juice

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Speaker 4: is a money line so far that these run lines

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Speaker 4: can grow to two and a half, three and a half,

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Speaker 4: four and a half. And while you know that team

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Speaker 4: may be superior, they're going to win the game, that

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Speaker 4: doesn't necessarily mean they're going to blow them out, right,

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know so, I would just pay attention

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Speaker 4: if it's, as a rule of thumb, if it's about

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Speaker 4: thirty to forty cents off the projection that I have

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Speaker 4: out there, then I will play the run line like

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Speaker 4: I did with TCU. All these teams that played Florida

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Speaker 4: been catching run lines against them. I would do the

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Speaker 4: same with LSU.

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Speaker 2: Zooming out from the actionable info here. What are your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on the championship matchup? Do you think the two

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Speaker 2: best teams advanced here in Omaha or was it kind

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Speaker 2: of the survive and advance mentality that sometimes plays out

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Speaker 2: with a postseason format the way it is in college baseball.

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Speaker 4: I feel bad that I actually thought some ACC teams

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Speaker 4: could come in here and make some noise. I mean,

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Speaker 4: that's all I talked about. The very first thing I

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Speaker 4: wrote this year was everybody needs to respect the SEC.

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Speaker 4: You need to go get futures on the South Carolina

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Speaker 4: as the Florida is because the SEC dominates. This is

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Speaker 4: now of the last twelve spots in the championship round.

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Speaker 4: Since twenty seventeen, nine of the twelve teams have been

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Speaker 4: from the SEC. I don't see any point when I

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Speaker 4: and just a rule of thumb and nine months, eight

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Speaker 4: months when college baseball futures come out, I'm going to

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Speaker 4: look at every SEC team besides maybe Missouri, every SEC

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Speaker 4: team that is below twenty to one, and they're going

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Speaker 4: to get a future from me?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 4: What is I mean, there's just no expectation. I think

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Speaker 4: they absolutely got it right. The College World Series continues

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Speaker 4: to play like this because players can now get NIL

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Speaker 4: deals and have much more money by skipping single A

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Speaker 4: and double A and going to play at these unbelievable

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Speaker 4: facilities for Mississippi State for Arkansas or LSU for Florida.

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Speaker 4: Like there's just there's more money in an IL, there's

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Speaker 4: better facilities and you can work on I mean, it's

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Speaker 4: not going to hurt your draft status and not going

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Speaker 4: to hurt how much money you make in MLB so

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Speaker 4: look for the SEC particular to separate themselves from everybody else.

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Speaker 4: Because if you were going to play in double A

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Speaker 4: ball and be a draft pick at seventeen years old,

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Speaker 4: you're good enough to play in the SEC. And that

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Speaker 4: is what has started to happen over the last.

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Speaker 2: Two years our podcasts here at the Action Network podcast

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Speaker 2: brought to you by FanDuel. Last question for you, Colin,

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Speaker 2: if you could bend the ear of our sponsor and say, listen,

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Speaker 2: FanDuel would love to have player props in states where

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Speaker 2: they are allowed. What would you love to see on

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Speaker 2: the collegiate diamond? You want home run props, strikeouts over unders,

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Speaker 2: you know, odds to.

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Speaker 3: Hit the cycle. What are you looking for?

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Speaker 4: Give me Dylan Cruz at any number on his total

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Speaker 4: basis prop. I don't care what the total basis prop is.

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Speaker 4: He's been on base every single game this year, right,

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Speaker 4: set his total bases at a hap, make it minus

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Speaker 4: four hundred, and just allow me to square out and

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Speaker 4: throw that money in anything. Dylan Cruz being on base

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Speaker 4: is a play on Just put a post your money.

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Speaker 4: It's It's like, what is so the saying with LSU

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Speaker 4: fan base when Paul Sken's pitches is it's Paul Skeen shoveday.

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Speaker 4: If you do that kind of thing, right like you,

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Speaker 4: if you know, you know, shove the money on Paul Skeen's.

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Speaker 4: If you can get a Dylan Cruz prop. Maybe it's

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Speaker 4: not bases, maybe it's just hits, Maybe it's walks. I

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Speaker 4: just push. I mean, the guy's been on base every

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Speaker 4: single game this year. I think we're up to sixty

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Speaker 4: six games somewhere around there. Pretty impressive.

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Speaker 3: All right, you heard that fan duel.

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Speaker 2: Let's get that fired up next year at the College

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Speaker 2: World Series. It's more popular every single season. It helps

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Speaker 2: when you have absolute classics like wake LSU last night

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Speaker 2: so special. Thanks to Brett Louder and Paul Schemes for

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Speaker 2: really bringing it for Colin Wilson on My Calibery's. This

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Speaker 2: has been the Action Network podcast, brought to you by FanDuel.

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Speaker 3: Please listen in.

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Speaker 2: In the coming weeks as we have our college football

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Speaker 2: content right around the corner. We have season previews coming up.

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Speaker 2: We have a lot of heavy lifting to do to

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Speaker 2: get you prepared to make as much money as possible

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Speaker 2: in the fall, So we're going to be hitting the books, watching, watching,

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Speaker 2: highlights in the film room doing everything to get ready

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Speaker 2: for that. Colin, can't wait to work with you.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, hopefully.

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Speaker 2: Everyone can cash in on these baseball bets. Here three

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Speaker 2: games left potentially in the season. Make sure to keep

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Speaker 2: an eye on that game to bullpen game from LSU

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Speaker 2: could be a real wild one six to.

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Speaker 3: Seven pitchers pitching for LSU. So thanks again, Colin, appreciate it.

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Speaker 4: All right, talk to you guys, Mike. I'll see you

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Speaker 4: in a month. We'll be back from Mountain West Conference preview.

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Speaker 4: I know I've been asked. Everyone's like, I love these

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Speaker 4: baseball tweets. What are we getting football? One month guys,

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Speaker 4: G five coming out.

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Speaker 3: G five baby, Locked and Loaded.

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Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,199
Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 3: hundred Gambler