WEBVTT - Expecting “Clear Air Turbulence’ for Markets in 2025 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:10.440 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business Week, 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:14.000 insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:18.680 most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.680 news as it happens. Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:25.720 and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:28.160 All right, everybody, we're going to get into some more 0:00:28.320 --> 0:00:30.720 conversations about the market trade and the sell off that 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:32.320 we saw in today's session. Do you want to mention though, 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:37.280 another earnings out after the close, b Riley, the institutional brokerage. Yeah, 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:41.640 it's up about eleven percent here in the aftermarket. It 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.760 has been, and the company a preliminary fourth quarter EPs 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:47.800 of a dollar fifty seven to two twenty two. Just 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:52.320 starting to get some headlines, it looks like, so they're 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:57.120 releasing the estimates of an unaudited fourth quarter twenty twenty 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:58.440 for financial. 0:00:58.000 --> 0:01:00.600 Don't worry, Carroll, my microphone is on now, I'll turn 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:02.840 it on. My comment was they've been getting beat up. 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:04.040 They have been getting beat up. 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.959 You did, you did stacks up about seventeen percent so 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:10.640 far here in twenty twenty five. But yeah, we are 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:12.560 seeing at least some movement in the after US, So 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:14.280 we'll keep a watch on it and continue to watch 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:15.160 it into. 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:16.280 No doubt about it's Tuesday trade. 0:01:16.280 --> 0:01:17.760 It's gonna be a lot on our plate tomorrow. 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:19.240 Ninety percent from twenty twenty one. 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:22.679 Yeah, that's pretty ugly. Yeah, yeah, Okay, all right, So 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.400 let's stay with the markets, folks, because we have seen 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:28.600 some selling in today's session. We did finish off our lows. 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:32.080 We have seen yields along the US Treasury curve moved 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:33.720 down a bunch as well. 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:33.959 Tim. 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:37.560 Yeah, that sense of caution prevailing as long promise tariffs 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.959 on top US trading partners are scheduled to take effect 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:45.360 on Tuesday. Meantime, we did hear from TSMC alongside President Trump, 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:47.920 planning to invest one hundred million dollars in chip plants 0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:51.080 into the US over the next four years. Jeff Proppleman 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:54.840 is chief investment Strategist, head of Equities at Mariner Wealth Advisors. 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:58.520 He joins us this afternoon once again from Cincinnati. A 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:00.680 day like today, Jeff, down on the S and P 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:03.520 five hundred one point eight percent, the Nasdaq two point 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:06.520 six percent. Are the clients calling. 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:11.880 Well, I'm they're not the phones aren't ringing off the hook, 0:02:11.880 --> 0:02:16.240 but I'm sure that they are, you know, in a 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:19.880 little bit of a a worrisome mood if you will. 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:20.400 Today. 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:25.359 You know, our theme and thesis all year has been 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:29.320 clear air turbulence. That's kind of what we talked about 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.160 going into the year after being you know, very very 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:37.160 bullish the past couple of years and really expected while 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:41.040 we see the market advancing higher through the year ten 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:47.240 to fifteen percent, pullbacks intermittently in some pockets, air pockets 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.079 that we're going to hit kind of through the year. 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.680 And that's exactly what we're getting. And I don't think 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:55.440 that we should be really surprised about that, given you know, 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:59.840 what we've seen in the previous UH tariff reddick in announcements, 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:02.720 what we saw over the weekend with regard to some 0:03:02.800 --> 0:03:05.960 of our you know, political partners throughout the world. So 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:07.560 this is just where we're going to get. We need 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.280 to buckle up, you know, for this and be prepared. 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:13.919 Well, is this an buying opportunity then, or do you 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.000 see further downside where people could start you know, picking 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:19.280 stuff up at I don't want to say a bargain 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:22.000 given more valuations are right now, But is it a 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:23.520 buying opportunity. 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:24.960 You know, I think it. 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.400 It certainly could be a buying opportunity. I would be 0:03:27.440 --> 0:03:30.680 biased to be there. But our message still in this 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:35.839 environment is hold your ground. And after sixty percent cumulative 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.200 returns over the last two years, we suggested the folks, hey, 0:03:39.760 --> 0:03:44.000 that's probably taken your allocation well above normal. Cut back 0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:47.200 to normal going in you know, to the year, and 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:49.800 you know, quite frankly, I would hover there now we 0:03:49.960 --> 0:03:53.320 have having said that, we have a base case of 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:55.760 about sixty six hundred on the S and P five hundred, 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.560 and I don't think any of the news today changes that. 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:03.600 And we do take our signal from earnings rates, credit spreads, trends, 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:06.120 and inflation, and those are the things that are going 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.480 to drive the market, and they still the mosaic is positive. 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.840 So I would lean into what you're suggesting here in 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:18.640 terms of this, this is an opportunity I think to add, 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.480 particularly if you trimmed your allocation back to normal. 0:04:23.960 --> 0:04:26.760 Having said that, it doesn't mean Jeff, that we couldn't 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:27.720 see some more selling. 0:04:28.920 --> 0:04:31.800 Oh no, no, I think our message kind of Look, 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:36.680 we're five percent off the February nineteenth high, we're you know, 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:42.400 just slightly off from you know where we were December first, 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:44.839 you know, a couple of days after the election, and 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:46.960 as I said, we were looking for air pockets of 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:50.840 ten to fifteen percent just on the psychiatry of all this, 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:55.640 you know, whether it is tariffs, concerned about federal debt, deportation, 0:04:55.839 --> 0:05:00.920 geopolitical discussions and whatnot that moves to dial. When you're 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:06.280 twenty two times earnings and you've had growth stocks significantly 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:10.200 outperform and trade at higher PE levels, you're going to. 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:12.320 Get these moments. And so yeah, I think we could, 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:13.440 we could go lower. 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:17.480 I wouldn't rush in, but you know, I think you're 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:19.719 going to get some price points where you're going to say, okay, 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:23.839 a lot of the carnages happened. And I also think Carol, 0:05:23.839 --> 0:05:26.560 that you can do some tactical repositioning in here. We've 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:29.360 we've seen a shift in leadership, and I think what 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:33.400 you own and how you're positioned in here is important. 0:05:33.440 --> 0:05:37.040 We've made some adjustments to that and may. 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:41.960 Make some more meaning time to buy outside of the US. 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:46.400 You know, you know that's that's not a bad point. 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:50.080 We are kind of domestically biased, but if you don't 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:55.600 have exposure to international stocks. I certainly would be thinking 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:58.680 about that this year in an active way. You don't 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:00.960 need to do that passively. You do it in an 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:05.039 active manner. And certainly in the international markets have outperformed 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:08.039 so far US, but also within US and from the 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:12.919 sector standpoint, you saw extreme outperformance in the gross stocks, 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:14.440 and the S and P five hundred is really a 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:18.280 concentrated index right now with seven stocks representing a third 0:06:18.279 --> 0:06:22.840 of the portfolio. The Russell one thousand growth index, those 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:26.040 gross stocks represent seven stocks more than fifty. 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:28.600 Percent of the portfolio, So I. 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:31.280 Think you want exposure there, but not to the same 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:34.000 level as the index. In healthcare looks good and some 0:06:34.040 --> 0:06:36.919 of these defensive areas are leading this year. We would 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:38.560 take the foot off the pedal a little bit. 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:39.760 Hey, And that's what I want to ask you, Jeff, 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:43.680 about some of the areas that you like, and that 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:48.080 includes some in consumer discretionary. And one name that you 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:52.159 shared with our producer Paul Brennan is Kroger, and that 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:56.920 was in the news today, the CEO resigning following an 0:06:56.920 --> 0:07:02.760 investigation into his personal conduct, the company replacing him. Following 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:06.400 this investigation, which was deemed inconsistent their words with the 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:11.200 company's policy on business ethics. This is someone who has 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:13.880 been in this industry, been in this company for a 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:14.560 long time. 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:17.400 What's your take on that news. 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:21.200 Well, yeah, Carol, I know about as much as you 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:22.559 do right now at this moment. 0:07:22.600 --> 0:07:24.000 That was kind of breaking news. 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:28.040 And you know, I think, without learning further, they said 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:32.440 it was a non business nature. This apparently was personal conduct. 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:37.520 It's a wonderful business, a wonderful business model if you 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.360 look at the basic fundamentals with regard to same store 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:44.960 sales growth, trend in profit margins, their private label business, 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:50.400 their digital marketing strategies. This is the type of stock 0:07:50.960 --> 0:07:53.280 that you want to own an environment when people are 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:53.920 freaking out. 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:55.200 And it doesn't matter. I mean, this is a guy 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:57.200 who basically grew up in the company, go back to 0:07:57.280 --> 0:08:00.920 nineteen seventy eight when he was a stock clerk. I've 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.160 had an opportunity to talk to him and interview him, 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.040 and I'm just you know, this is a business he 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:08.800 knows so well. It doesn't matter to you in terms 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:10.160 of an investment play. 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.720 If the CEO has changedpecially. 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:14.640 I think they have a deep bench and this wouldn't 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:21.360 get me to actually rethink owning Kroger at this point. Certainly, 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:23.040 I think, you know, we want to know more. But 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:24.680 I think they do have a deep bench and a 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:28.200 wonderful business model. So I think many companies have gone 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:33.680 through you know, management change like this at the highest 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:37.880 level and have executed quite well on the other side 0:08:37.880 --> 0:08:40.319 of that. I've seen no reason to think that they 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:45.360 cannot do that. But certainly it's it's a headwind here 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:49.000 from a price action standpoint for you know, kind of 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:49.640 the near term. 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:52.160 But those are the types of stocks. 0:08:51.880 --> 0:08:55.760 Whether it's Kroger or Jay and Jay or am Jen 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:58.880 or Vertex or some of the other names that I 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:04.000 gave you in kind of you know, the more staple 0:09:05.400 --> 0:09:09.760 area of consumer or healthcare, Okay, that I think you 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:10.600 want to look toward. 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:13.520 So it's not just Cincinnati bias about why you pick 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:16.280 Kroger Company in the space there, just making sure, Jeff, 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.240 just making you mention you didn't mention P and G. 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:21.439 I was waiting for that one. 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:22.640 I did not do that. 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:25.840 Always great when you join us, but you know, we 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:27.400 like it more in the studio when you come and 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:29.840 visit us here in New York. So hopefully you'll do 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:31.440 that soon. A big thank you to Jeff Crumpleman at 0:09:31.480 --> 0:09:35.439 Chief investment strategist and head of Equities at Mariner Wealth Advisors, 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:37.320 Take Carol. Some news in the world of real estate today, 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:40.559 Apollo Global providing a two hundred and seventy five million 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:43.160 dollar loan to refi a pair of apartment towers in 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:46.839 Manhattan's Financial District. It's interesting because lenders, they've been active 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:51.360 in financing luxury residential products in places such as Manhattan. Yeah, 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:52.679 South Florida. 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:53.880 Good market, good market, strong market. 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:55.840 Yeah, demand for those areas remains high. 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:59.280 Yeah, they have been active for some context on that demand. 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:02.560 We bring back Louise Phillips Forbes real estate broker at 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:04.600 Brown Harris Steve, and she has sold close to six 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:06.439 billion dollars worth of real estate since she began. 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:10.160 Back was it in the nineteen ninety nineteen nineties, nineteen 0:10:10.240 --> 0:10:11.960 ninety it's a lot, It's a lot. It's a lot. 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:14.760 Hey, nice to have you here back in our Bloomberg 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.720 Interactive Broker Studio. I just want to start with something 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:21.320 that you know, we are looking at a market that 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:21.880 has had. 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:22.640 Some nervousness in it. 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.960 Today, we think it's pretty clear that there's concerns about 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:29.360 tariffs out of the White House, what impact it will 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:31.360 have on growth in the United States. 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:32.319 Just all of that. 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:36.160 Tell me coming into this. 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:37.800 What would you what do you what would. 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:38.880 What do you want to tell me about what's going 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:42.160 on in your world in terms of the market, the 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.720 economy that I'm sure your clients talk to you about, 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.160 the business backdrop, the economic backdrop. 0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:49.199 What are you hearing? So, I think there are a 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:52.280 couple of things. I would say. You know, everybody thinks 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:54.880 that the real estate market is going to react in 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:57.600 the same way in the same time as the stock market, 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:01.200 and that isn't necessarily the case. It does have cause 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:03.320 and effects. I mean, you know, I just literally on 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:05.040 my way over here, I was like, how many deals 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:09.040 do we have in contract right now? You know? Over 0:11:09.120 --> 0:11:12.800 ten million? It's one hundred and four Wow, ranging from 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:15.839 ten million and above up to fifty five cents. This 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:19.080 is just Manhattan, just Manhattan. Sounds like a lot? Is 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:21.200 it a lot? It's a lot? I mean, listen, is 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:25.480 that typical? Is that? Where we was like that somebody's 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:29.360 not reading the news. However, people have been waiting a 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:31.840 very long time. And I will say in two thousand. 0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:34.360 In March of two thousand, the market dropped six hundred 0:11:34.400 --> 0:11:37.959 points for me, and I was thank goodness, I dropped. 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.839 I bought, I went to contract, and I put six 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:44.320 hundred thousand dollars into real estate. So I was thinking 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:46.760 what would that have been worth if I didn't pull 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:50.520 it out? So you know, you know, there's a lot 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:52.800 of things that affect our markets. You know, you can 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:58.360 go from inventory to interest rate. COVID policy policy has 0:11:58.440 --> 0:12:02.479 a big play. It doesn't scessarily affected call you know immediately, 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.600 but immigration and who's going to be in our workforce, 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:11.800 that's going to be an immediate impact along with tariff. 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:13.480 So talk a little bit about that. And now you're 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:15.960 thinking about that As somebody who spies and sells real 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:17.760 estate in New York City, I. 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.240 Mean I can just speak about a small, little minute example. 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.640 In my own portfolio business, I did a renovation in 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:28.199 twenty it was actually I think nineteen twenty nineteen. That 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:30.600 was twenty seven hundred square feet. It cost US four 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.079 hundred and thirty thousand dollars to do this renovation. They 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.559 have their own GC. It's a construction company who also 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:39.320 owns JC meaning general contractor general contractor, but they also 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:41.920 own three billion dollars with real estate, so they know 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:46.880 what they're doing. Fast forward, this past fall, we completed 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:52.160 the same exact renovation for eight hundred and fifteen thousand dollars. 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.680 I mean that is is that a material story or 0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:55.760 a labor story or yes? 0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:59.080 And yes that is cause and effect of what we've 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:03.360 all lived through globally. But what does that mean? 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:07.320 So to Tim's point, is it because the contractors to 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:10.319 brothers who work in contractor and or contractors, they talk 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.840 about lack of workers, I talk about higher materials costs. 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:14.719 Is that what it is? 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:18.359 Yes, I mean it's part of that, but it's also everything. 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.840 I mean, codes and the policies of getting construction done 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:28.200 in your buildings. You know, since since surf side, you know, 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.280 the policies for safety are much. 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:32.880 More the building collapse in Florida. 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:36.400 And much more impacting. What it costs for insurance. My 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.840 own insurance and my own co op went up twice 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:43.319 thirty eight percent. Yeah, so it's pushed in every angle. 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:47.240 And then you have this kind of attitude sort of 0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:52.400 politically and policies that are going to have impact, and it's. 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.480 And yet you have more than one hundred contracts waiting 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:01.920 to be signed, signed signed hard of ten million and above. 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:04.280 So it'd be interesting to see if any of those 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:09.400 come out close because they're concerned about this impact. But 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:14.040 at that luxury price and that level, you're dealing with 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.200 one percent of the one percent of one percent. It's 0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:18.640 not the everyday guy. It's not even the guy that's 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:22.000 buying buying that renovation that I did for eight hundred 0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:24.160 and thirty thousand dollars. They're thinking, shoo, that would be 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:26.520 a hot that would be one point four for me. Right, 0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:29.400 So but listen, we. 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.520 Know it's the market we talk about of the wealthy 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:36.320 in a kind of one class, right, Yeah, and then 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:39.880 there's a lot of folks who moves, you know. 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.840 Who, who were affected. I mean, yeah, listen, but we're 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.880 having a tough time. You start to see things that 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.920 happen because of that cause and effect. If you think 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:52.680 about I was reading an article about generational wealth, and 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.600 you know, I'm looking at fifty percent of the first 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:59.480 time buyer transactions that I've done in the last like 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:03.080 three to FO since COVID, I would say fifty percent 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:07.120 of those are gifting or co purchasing by parents, so 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:10.440 and they're referring to it as the silver tsunami. So 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:14.640 it's interesting. And when you talk to your your wealth advisors, 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:18.640 they're like, listen, there's going to be four trillion dollars 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:23.360 general relation, generational. Hey, it's Monday, Yes, amen, I need 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.320 another cup of copee. But but it's it's it's affecting 0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:29.480 that and it's going to be passed down. And when 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:33.240 you're also dealing with the we have developers with the 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.920 tariffs that are talking about putting in their contracts contingencies 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:40.160 and who's going to sign a contract when you're not 0:15:40.240 --> 0:15:42.880 sure what twenty five percent mean? What does that mean? 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:47.560 So it's going to remain to be interesting. 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:52.240 Andrew Cuomo jumping into the mayor's race does. 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:54.200 A feeling you're going to go there? 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:55.720 Well, I'm just wondering. You know, we talk so much 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.280 when you talk politics, we talk at the national level 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.160 and out of Washington, DC. But your world is so 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:04.320 focused on New York City. Sure, sure, I mean, does 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.120 does the whose mayor matter? 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:11.440 Who governor and mayor and how they work together matter? 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.400 But those policies, you know, you you know, when you 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:20.320 had Bloomberg for twelve years, he you know, rezoned forty 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:22.680 one percent of the land mass of Manhattan. It was 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:29.440 tremendous growth and employment, and you know, areas that were unappreciating, 0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:34.760 not appreciating that have now become like, you know, great 0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:39.560 anchors for a whole area. We need strong leadership, no 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:43.640 matter who it is. We need strong leadership, and it 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:46.480 also has to be somebody who understands cause and effect 0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:48.960 and is interested in the growth and also the well 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.720 being of our quality of life. 0:16:51.720 --> 0:16:55.040 Are you at all concerned about Governor Hokeel going up 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.880 against President Trump and the way that you know, we 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:01.920 saw with congestion price see Sean Duffy, the Transportation Secretary, 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.480 essentially saying a couple of weeks ago, we're going after it. 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:08.960 The Governor of New York saying, no, you're not. It's 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.480 the state fighting the federal government. Does that concern you? 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:16.760 I think that you know, everybody who has sort of 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:21.359 witnessed and experienced some of the transactional tone that Trump 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:25.240 has is a tip for tat that can be concerning. 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.680 But I also believe that, Look, I don't like congestion, 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:31.080 I don't like that tax. It's costing me three thousand 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:35.320 dollars a year to go to work. But if it's 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:39.360 for the good of the people in general, then I'm 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:40.679 grateful that I can pay for it. 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:41.920 Louis one thing I want to ask. 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:43.320 I'm going to tell you about the subway. When we're 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:47.560 off air. You can talk about using you know, I 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:48.160 do use. 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:49.840 It a lot. Okay, I do use a lot. I 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:51.320 want to ask. It's my mobile office. 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:55.639 There's policy. There's also rate environment, and mortgage rates in 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:57.800 the US drop for a six week six. 0:17:57.640 --> 0:17:59.440 Hey, six point four today. 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.400 Right right to the lowest level more than two months. Yeah, exactly, 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:04.719 So I love it. You knew it right on it. 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:06.600 And that's one of the things we've been talking just 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:06.960 looking at the. 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:11.320 US Treasury curve. It's one day trade. But are you 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:12.960 seeing our story last. 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.400 Week said, as they say, seeing mortgage traits go down, 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:17.840 that you're starting to see supply increase because people are 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:21.280 now willing to maybe let go and maybe are you 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:22.720 seeing any signs of that? 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.560 Absolutely? I mean I've had more bidding wars, I've been 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:30.159 outbid more in the last two months. I mean, listen in. 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:32.040 But people are willing to start to let go of 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:33.160 homes because. 0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:36.760 Yes, and what they wouldn't do then they will do 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:39.720 now and I each of those some of them have 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.680 personal circumstances, but I think it's also an attitude in 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.520 a tone like how long are you going to wait? Yeah? 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.639 And what are the policies that are being implemented now 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:53.240 going to be in six months? We know it usually 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:56.400 takes six months to see it. In the real estate transactions, 0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:59.560 right right, that cause effect, unlike the stock market today. 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:03.720 So I think that what's right for one person might 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:06.199 not be right for another person. But we are absolutely 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:10.720 seeing a attitude shift for I would say the smart 0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:12.119 bigger picture people. 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:16.440 So two things, people willing to buy because they're comfortable 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:18.199 where the rate is and people who are in a 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.239 home who've maybe had a low mortgage willing to let 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:22.600 go or I. 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.160 That mortgage thing is not a conversation as much as 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:28.919 the next chapter of their life is a conversation. Okay, 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:31.520 they're not letting go because there's nothing else to get. 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:37.800 So if you're going to I don't know, Colorado, wherever 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:41.440 there's some inventory that's not thirty two people bidding on 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:44.600 one unit, then you might let go of your place 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:48.520 in Darien, Connecticut that has like seventeen homes on the market, 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.560 you know, so I think that those are things that 0:19:51.600 --> 0:19:54.320 we're up against. I'll also just say that interesting the 0:19:54.400 --> 0:20:00.919 second week in February, they did forty one transactions transactions 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:04.359 in one week north of four million, and that is 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.360 the most activity that we have seen in that sector 0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.320 since twenty twenty two, since March of twenty twenty two. 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.400 Where's weakness in the market? What price point. 0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:21.680 Priced incorrectly? Homes that are priced incorrectly me too high 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:25.400 to those look low. I mean, every sector is moving 0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:28.919 if it's priced right. So I mean that's why we 0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:31.600 have one hundred and four units that are in contract 0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:35.399 for north of ten million. They I bet if I 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.720 was to really do the analysis that those are all 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:39.320 had had multiple price reductions. 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.680 Nothing in here says recession to you. Just quickly just 0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:43.760 got about twenty five seconds. 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:47.840 Not you hesitating. No, I'm just trying to be thoughtful. 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:52.520 I feel that people have been just through. People can 0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:57.119 date their rate and you know, marry their home and refinance, 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.480 and I think that's a lot of the attitude for people. 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:05.000 And that's why you have parents more willing to take 0:21:05.040 --> 0:21:08.199 their inheritance and let them experience it, use it, have 0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:11.359 it than waiting for them to pass away. I hear 0:21:11.400 --> 0:21:13.000 that from a lot a lot of families. 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:15.679 Nice to check in with you. Thank you, thank you, 0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:18.399