1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,480 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President 6 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:20,159 Speaker 1: Donald J. 7 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 2: Trump's leadership. 8 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: I'm Christy nom the United States Secretary of Homeland Security. 9 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the 10 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred thousand illegal 11 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: aliens have been arrested. If you are here illegally, your 12 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: next you will be fined nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, 13 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 1: and deported. 14 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: You will never return. 15 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: But if you register using our CBP home app and 16 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: leave now, you could be allowed to return legally. 17 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: Do what's right. Leave now. 18 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families will be protected. 19 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 3: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security. 20 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 4: Michael Burry, who actually referenced him last episode, Doctor Michael Burry, 21 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 4: who he got pretty famous after the Big Short Situation 22 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 4: came after that movie. He was one of the ones 23 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 4: that actually met on the collapse of the economy in 24 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 4: two thousand and eight and made billions of dollars off 25 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 4: of that. So he's back, and he's back on it. 26 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 4: He's back on his booth, and the whole world is scared. 27 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,919 Speaker 4: So I'm gonna actually just read what happened. So doctor 28 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,920 Speaker 4: Michael Berry, renowned for forecasting in two thousand and eight 29 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 4: housing crisis collapse, has depicted in the Big short has 30 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 4: talked over a one point six billion in potential Wall 31 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 4: Street downturn. Recent SEC filings revealed Burry's fun Scion Asset 32 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 4: Management has invested in put options against both the S 33 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 4: and P five hundred, eight hundred and sixty six million 34 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 4: and NASDAQ one hundred and seven seven hundred and thirty 35 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 4: nine million. These moves represent over ninety percent of his 36 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 4: portfolio signet, signaling a significant bearish stance. However, Burry's position 37 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 4: has appeared inconsistent. Earlier this year, he am you gligously 38 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 4: and you ambiguously viiguously got you tweet team work it 39 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 4: work tweeted itself to his to his bads followers, only 40 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 4: to retreat by Mark in March, admitting I was wrong 41 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 4: to say so my bad so it happened despite his 42 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 4: bearish bet. The S and P five hundred and as 43 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 4: that both have shown substantial growth this year, increasing in 44 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 4: pross only sixteen percent and thirty eight percent, respectively. Now, 45 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 4: it has been a bad year for I mean, this 46 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:59,679 Speaker 4: has been a bad month for the stock market. Yeah, historically, 47 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 4: no like this month twenty and twenty three. Yes, I'm 48 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 4: saying this has been This has been a down moth. 49 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 4: But for the year, the markets has been up. So 50 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 4: being that he's putting a bet that the market is 51 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 4: going to go down, a lot of people are, you know, 52 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 4: a little nervous. So is this blown out of a 53 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 4: portion or is this something that investors they need to. 54 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 3: I think it's a I love Michael Burry one of 55 00:03:27,919 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 3: my inspirations after I watched the pig short. It's slightly 56 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 3: overblown for a couple of reasons. Number One, when you 57 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 3: do options, for every option, you control how many shares 58 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 3: everyone put in chat how many shares do you get 59 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 3: to control? So I don't think the capital outlet is accurate. 60 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 3: Number Two, this was last quarter, so they're reported and 61 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 3: the point of now. But the thing about when you 62 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 3: run a fund, you don't have to disclose your entry, 63 00:03:55,920 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 3: your exit, the other correlating positions that you have. And 64 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 3: also he's not going to tell you the exact moment 65 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 3: when he gets out. When I was talking to Josh 66 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,839 Speaker 3: this weekend, there's a couple people that like always get 67 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: great headline, a great clickthrough. Michael Burry, Kathy Wood, Mike Novagrats, 68 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 3: Elon Musk, Kanye West. If you put any of them 69 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 3: in an article about investing, or Warren Buffett, you're going 70 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 3: to get clicks. So I think for those of you 71 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 3: who have been doing doing research, you are already aware 72 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 3: of this position. August historically is a down month, say 73 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 3: lighter month, so I would we've only been down maybe 74 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 3: three or four weeks since those all time highs. So 75 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 3: I know a lot of people are asking, you know, 76 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: it's this overblown. I don't think it's overblown. I think 77 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 3: it's a great hedge overall to have in the market. 78 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 3: But if you go look at the other positions that 79 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 3: he has, he's along the Japanese ETF, which is a 80 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 3: great exposure play. 81 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 5: Ernest, what's up? You ever walk into a small business 82 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 5: and everything just works like the checkout is fast. There 83 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 5: are seats of digital tipping is a breeze and you're 84 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 5: out the door before the line even builds. Odds are 85 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 5: they're using Square. 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It's not 94 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 5: just about payments, it's about giving you time back so 95 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,599 Speaker 5: you can focus on what matters most ready. To see 96 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 5: how Square can transform your business, visit Square dot com 97 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 5: backslash go backslash eyl to learn more that Square dot 98 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 5: com backslash, go backslash eyl. Don't wait, don't hesitate. Let's 99 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 5: Square handle the back end so you can keep pushing 100 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 5: your vision forward. This episode is brought to you by 101 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 5: P and C Bank. A lot of people think podcasts 102 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 5: about work a boring, and sure they definitely can be, 103 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 5: but understanding a professional's routine shows us how they achieve 104 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 5: their success little by little, day after day. It's like 105 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,679 Speaker 5: banking with P and C Bank. It might seem boring 106 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 5: to save, plan and make calculated decisions with your bank, 107 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 5: but keeping your money boring is what helps you live 108 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 5: a more happily fulfilled life. P and C Bank Brilliantly 109 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 5: Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty 110 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 5: five is a service mark of the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. 111 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 5: P and C Bank National Association Member FDIC. 112 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:46,839 Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child 113 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from El Salvador 114 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with 115 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just 116 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: some of the hat migrant criminals caught because of President 117 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 1: Donald J. 118 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 2: Trump's leadership. 119 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 1: I'm Christy Noman, the United States Secretary of Homeland Security. 120 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: Under President Trump, attempted illegal border crossings are at the 121 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: lowest levels ever recorded, and over one hundred thousand illegal 122 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: aliens have been arrested. 123 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 2: If you are here. 124 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: Illegally, your next you will be fine nearly one thousand 125 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: dollars a day. 126 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 2: Imprisoned and deported, you will never return. 127 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: But if you register using our CBP home app and 128 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: leave now, you could be allowed to return legally. Do 129 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: what's right, leave now. Under President Trump America's laws, border 130 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:40,560 Speaker 1: and families. 131 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 3: Will be protected sponsored by the United States Department of 132 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 3: Homeland Security because their indexes and economy has been going up. 133 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 3: But if you really think the market is going to 134 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 3: fall apart, he would have short at the n e K, 135 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 3: the Japanese index, German decks as well. So I think 136 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 3: this is more of a headge than anything. Will it 137 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 3: be profitable in it, yes, but you do have to 138 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 3: take in consideration. When Mike has these positions on, he's 139 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 3: usually too early. So when he's short, he's getting in 140 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 3: short too early. When he's going a long, he's in 141 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 3: too early. So I wouldn't follow this as a signal 142 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 3: to get in. But it is a very good trade 143 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,640 Speaker 3: on his end to hedge the market for where it 144 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 3: is currently. 145 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 5: I'm with you on everything you just said. You nailed 146 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 5: it as usual, of course, but yeah, I mean you 147 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 5: the timing is important, right, So like what you just 148 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 5: said about him being in the trades too early, the 149 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 5: other part is that by the time you hear it's 150 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:33,200 Speaker 5: too late, it's too late, right, That's the part that 151 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 5: we got to realize. By the time it becomes news 152 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 5: that trade has already been put in two to three months, probably. 153 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 3: Prior or he could have exited already. 154 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 5: Or he could have exited. And we don't even know 155 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 5: if he bought calls. We just know that he made puts. 156 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 5: So when he makes the call or the put call 157 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 5: in January and by March, who knows, as he's seeing 158 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 5: this trend, he's probably put in more trades to offset 159 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 5: and had his positions. That part you never never get 160 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 5: you displayed. Yeah, so even now, I mean, I guess 161 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 5: after he put that pradition, his his account kind of 162 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 5: got disappeared, which is which is weird. But this is 163 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 5: not something it's news because of who it is and 164 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 5: because of the stat he's had in two thousand and eight. 165 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 5: But like you said, if he looked at it as 166 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 5: a global economy, he would have been making puts throughout 167 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 5: the world and that has well at least we don't know. Again, 168 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 5: we don't know what has happened, and so this is 169 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 5: not something that I mean, personally I would be looking 170 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 5: at and saying all right, well, if Mike's doing this, 171 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 5: this is something that I should be doing to get 172 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 5: in y right. It should be something of note like, Okay, 173 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 5: this is something that's happening. But again, we don't know 174 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 5: the timing of it. We don't see every transaction that 175 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 5: has made with every trader. We don't see those parts. 176 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 5: We just see the headlines. So this feels more like 177 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 5: a headline to have an article. But take note, great headline, clear, 178 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 5: great headline. 179 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 3: But if you're reporting something a quarter or three months 180 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 3: too late and you don't know when someone's going to 181 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 3: addit in the grand scheme of things, it does not 182 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 3: that really matter. Do I think we'll have a pullback? 183 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 3: I mean, we're going through one now, but it's not 184 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 3: like we're facing anything that we're facing in twenty twenty. 185 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 3: So yeah, please be con And for everyone who's like, well, 186 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 3: Mike got lucky in one trade. He provided five hundred 187 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 3: percent return for clients, and it was a good lesson. 188 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 3: If you watch the movie, there were clients complaining even 189 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 3: about the five hundred percent return. They hated this strategy 190 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 3: all the way through. They didn't believe when the premiums 191 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 3: was going up when he returned five backs, they were 192 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 3: still upset once they got taken out of the fund, 193 00:10:30,559 --> 00:10:34,199 Speaker 3: So you have to be very mindful. Also, he could 194 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 3: have an open straddle. Like there's a lot of layers 195 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 3: to this, but you have to look at the entire 196 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 3: portfolio to see to get a true picture of what's 197 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 3: going on. 198 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 5: And even August this is not something that's a tip. 199 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 5: This is typically how July August usually moved. When we 200 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 5: talk about trade volumes and you know pullbacks and then 201 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 5: you know the end of the third quartera September, and 202 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 5: we saw it like that's what I said. If you've 203 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 5: been watching market money, we've been through some of these 204 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 5: type of cycles. But we've seen August has been a 205 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 5: pullback throughout the month at the end of slight trend up, 206 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 5: and in September, as the third quarter kind of ends, 207 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 5: you start to see a trend down. So this is 208 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 5: typical for the seven months. 209 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, I remember in August twenty four to twenty fifteen, 210 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,079 Speaker 3: that's when I placed like my first really big swing 211 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,240 Speaker 3: trade when I felt like, okay, I had this same 212 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 3: thing was happening. Nick was falling, Russell was falling, Dad 213 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 3: was falling. Eus was falling, and then things slowly start 214 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 3: to turn around the next year. August is a month 215 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 3: that's usually slow in the volume lax or if you're 216 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 3: a short seller, that's a good time July and August 217 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,400 Speaker 3: to look to begin to build your positions too short. 218 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:38,320 Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child 219 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador 220 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with 221 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just 222 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President 223 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: Donald J. 224 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: Trump's leadership. I'm Christine Noman, the. 225 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: United States Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted 226 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, 227 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: and over one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. 228 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: If you are here illegally, your next you will be 229 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 1: fine nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, 230 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: you will never return. But if you register using our 231 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: CBP home app and leave now, you could be allowed 232 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: to return legally. 233 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 2: Do what's right. Leave now. 234 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: Under President Trump America's laws, border and families will be protected. 235 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 3: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,