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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so

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Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Slip sixting, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shut with that shop with blind buddy, And that's

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Speaker 3: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up.

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Speaker 5: I'm the one.

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Speaker 1: It's left too, the wide eyed drill pibus, how old

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Speaker 1: earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello and welcome to Wondergul, a new soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 4: from the Action Network. I'm your host, Michael Ebaf and

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Speaker 4: every Monday and Thursday, I'll be joined by my Action

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Speaker 4: colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three

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Speaker 4: of us will handicap games across Champions League, Premier League, Bundesliga,

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Speaker 4: Siria A, La Liga and legal. I know you're all

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Speaker 4: excited to get to some soccer bets, but I have

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Speaker 4: some business I need to attend to. Many of you

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Speaker 4: are listening to this on the Action Network podcast feed.

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Speaker 4: If that's you and you hate the very idea of

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Speaker 4: betting on non American football. We get it. You think

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Speaker 4: we're commies. It's okay. However, if you've been waiting for

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Speaker 4: us to release a show like this for a long time, please,

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Speaker 4: for the love of God, go to Apple Podcasts or

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Speaker 4: wherever you like to listen and subscribe to the Wonder

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Speaker 4: Goal podcast Feed right away, like right this instant. This way,

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Speaker 4: you won't miss future episodes. Bjay, myself and Anthony could

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Speaker 4: keep our jobs. And since our boss, longtime media fat cat,

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Speaker 4: Chad Millman will try to cancel this show as soon

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Speaker 4: as he finds out about it, we need your help desperately.

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Speaker 4: So here's what we're gonna do. If you leave us

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Speaker 4: a nice review on the Wonder Goal podcast Feed, make

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Speaker 4: sure to drop your Twitter handle, you will automatically been

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Speaker 4: into a contest to win the soccer jersey of your

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Speaker 4: choice from this season. Additionally, if you tweet at Chad

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Speaker 4: Billman and tell him not to cancel a Wonder Goal,

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Speaker 4: you will also be automatically entered into a separate contest

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Speaker 4: to win a soccer jersey of your choice. That's right,

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Speaker 4: you have the possibility to win two soccer jerseys if

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Speaker 4: you win both contests. Okay, gentlemen, let's get to the

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Speaker 4: Champions League. Let's start with the headliner for Tuesday that

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Speaker 4: features Liverpool and Atletico Madrid in Spain. Liverpool are road

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Speaker 4: favorites plus one twenty five at Let it go plus

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Speaker 4: two to twenty five. That draw at plus two thirty.

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Speaker 4: This is a three pm kickoff Group b BJ. How

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Speaker 4: do you see it?

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Speaker 1: It's a massive class between two really different styles of play.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Athletic cum Madrid is obviously going to play

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Speaker 5: out of a very defensive style formation, while Liverpool is

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Speaker 5: going to play high tempo, high press, heavy metal style

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Speaker 5: of football.

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Speaker 1: You know, aflety Co.

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Speaker 5: Madrid has been good in La Liga this season, seventeen

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Speaker 5: points from their first eight matches with a plus four

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Speaker 5: point six to four non penalty expected gold differential, but

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Speaker 5: they haven't faced a team like Liverpool that's going to

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Speaker 5: press them high up the pitch. I mentioned to see

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Speaker 5: how they handle it, because if we go back to

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Speaker 5: last Champions League campaign, Athletico Madrid was in the same

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Speaker 5: group as Bayern Munich, who also played a very similar

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Speaker 5: style under Hans Flick that Jurgen Klopp plays at Liverpool

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Speaker 5: and Athletic Madrid had absolutely no answers for it in

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Speaker 5: the first meeting, getting beat four nothing, and in the

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Speaker 5: second meeting, Bayern Munich had already clinched the groups, they

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Speaker 5: didn't really care about the match and they drew one

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Speaker 5: to one. I do have Athletico Madrid projected as a

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Speaker 5: small favorite in this one, but I'm not walking in

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Speaker 5: front of Liverpool's offense right now, which may be the

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Speaker 5: best in the world. They lead the Premier League in

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Speaker 5: non penalty expected goals per match, big scoring chances shots

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Speaker 5: per ninety.

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Speaker 1: But Liverspool's defense is kind of due to concede some goals.

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Speaker 5: You know, they've allowed ten point one expected goals through

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Speaker 5: their first eight matches, but I've only conceded eight actual goals.

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Speaker 1: And Liverpool did just face.

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Speaker 5: You know, Porto in their last Champions League match, who

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Speaker 5: also plays out of a four four to two formation,

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Speaker 5: and they just obliterated them five to one's So I

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Speaker 5: do like the over in this match. Athletic Madrid obviously

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Speaker 5: improved in the transfer market, bringing in Antoline Griesman back

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Speaker 5: to the club, adding him along with Gio Felix and

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Speaker 5: Luis Suarez, So I think this one is going to

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Speaker 5: be a little more high scoring than expected, so I

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Speaker 5: like over two and a half goals at plus one

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Speaker 5: oh five.

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Speaker 4: Actually, I think we're gonna take a shot at Letti here.

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Speaker 4: This team is set up to just turn games into

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Speaker 4: coin flips, and I know Liverpool are that front three.

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Speaker 4: The way the offense is clicking is dynamic, but they're

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Speaker 4: still they're feasting on some really poor defenses in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League. So like you said, Atletico hasn't really faced

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Speaker 4: a team like Liverpool. You can also, I think, turn

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Speaker 4: the argument around. It's like Liverpool hasn't faced a defense

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Speaker 4: like Atletico, or when they did. You look at Man

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Speaker 4: City they did struggle or they did draw, and the

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Speaker 4: same thing with Chelsea they drew against them. So I

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Speaker 4: think there is a little bit of value on Atletico

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Speaker 4: as a home underdog. This is a game that the

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Speaker 4: winner goes top of the group, so I think Liverpool

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Speaker 4: might be actually a little more conservative. They also played

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Speaker 4: this weekend Atletico did not, so I'm gonna take a shot.

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Speaker 4: The number is pretty good plus two twenty five on Atletico.

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Speaker 4: So that's where I'm going, Anthony.

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Speaker 3: And it's a pass for me. I really, really really

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Speaker 3: want to get behind Atletico. I think that this is

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Speaker 3: an interesting match. Like you mentioned, Michael, Liverpool has beaten

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Speaker 3: up on a lot of really bad teams. But you

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Speaker 3: also have to look at their body of work that

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Speaker 3: dates back to about the last six games of last

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Speaker 3: season and now into the first eight Premier League games

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Speaker 3: of this season, plus the two Champions League games. They

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Speaker 3: had a little blip against Milan where they conceded two

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Speaker 3: goals in about five minutes, but Virgil van Dyke didn't

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Speaker 3: play in that match. The only concern here for me

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Speaker 3: with Liverpool is it's a look ahead spot. They've got

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Speaker 3: Manchester United coming up next week. They also know that

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Speaker 3: this is one of two games in a row they're

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Speaker 3: going to play in the Champions League against Atletico Madrid.

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Speaker 3: This is the away fixture. With them having the lead,

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Speaker 3: It's a world where Liverpool would probably be pretty satisfied

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Speaker 3: to take the point knowing that they're going to be

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Speaker 3: coming home and have them at home in that spot,

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Speaker 3: so also a revenge spot from twenty nineteen. The teams

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Speaker 3: actually aren't all that different. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 3: concerning or not for both teams long term, but the

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Speaker 3: teams that Liverpool had let he put out in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty, just before the pandemic. Aren't that different from

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Speaker 3: the ones that are going to show up on Tuesday night.

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Speaker 3: So I'm really interested for this one. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: pass ultimately, but I think that if I to take

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Speaker 3: a side and probably be a Lenti just because Liverpool,

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Speaker 3: we wonder if there's gonna be some squad rotation.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that that last time that these two teams met

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Speaker 4: in the Champions League will certainly go down in history,

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Speaker 4: not just in soccer but kind of sporting in European history.

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Speaker 4: Then the other game in Group B is another Tuesday

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Speaker 4: at three pm kickoff Porto ac Milan. These teams are

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Speaker 4: basically it's like it's a pick them basically between the

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Speaker 4: two of them, Porto plus one seventy underdogs at home

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Speaker 4: right now at bet MGM and AC Milan plus one

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Speaker 4: fifty five the draw at plus two forty. Bookmakers having

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Speaker 4: a tough time picking these teams apart, Anthony, are you

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Speaker 4: I'm not.

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Speaker 3: Actually there's a bit of an injury issue crisis going

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Speaker 3: on here for AC Milan. They are starting to pile up.

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Speaker 3: They did have an excellent comeback three to two win

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Speaker 3: against Verona at the weekend that included a penalty and

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Speaker 3: an own goal. A little bit lucky there. They lost

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Speaker 3: the expected goals battle marginally and given the fact they

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Speaker 3: were down most of the match, pretty concerning that they

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Speaker 3: didn't really create a ton of clear chances in that one.

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Speaker 3: Milan's really impressive in Sirie. I know they've won almost

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Speaker 3: every single match they've played. They have the second best

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Speaker 3: expected goal difference in the league behind Napoli. It's been

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Speaker 3: an impressive start for Milan, but they've looked a lot

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Speaker 3: shakier in the Champions League and they were playing out

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Speaker 3: playing Atletico Madrid in first in that last match, but

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Speaker 3: they looked a little bit out of their depth against

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Speaker 3: Liverpool and they struggled to cope once they went down

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Speaker 3: to man and really gave that game away. So this

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Speaker 3: is a desperation spot for both teams. Both teams need

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Speaker 3: to win. The most interesting thing here for Milan is

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Speaker 3: the injury situation. Mike Manion, the goalie for Milan, is out.

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Speaker 3: He had a long injury. Tayo Hernandez and Brahim Diaz

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Speaker 3: tested positive for COVID. They may not play Latsani Abrahimovich

169
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Speaker 3: coming back from injury, did feature a little bit over

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Speaker 3: the weekend, but not expected to start. Make them off

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Speaker 3: the bench. And we look at Porto's terrible loss to Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: It's not the first time Porto has had trouble with

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Speaker 3: Liverpool in Europe. Liverpool have kind of had their number

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Speaker 3: over the recent years, pretty much blowing them at every

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Speaker 3: single time. Don't know what it is about that matchup,

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Speaker 3: but it's not been good for Porto. There are multiple

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Speaker 3: goalie errors that led to goals. It was a lot

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Speaker 3: of fluke goals that that kind of came about for Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: They weren't quite as bad. Porto wasn't as the numbers suggest.

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Speaker 3: They also get Pepe back in the middle of their defense.

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Speaker 3: Chancellem Bemba may not play, he's questionable, but the Porto

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Speaker 3: improved defense, they'll be able to sit deep and absorb pressure,

183
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Speaker 3: hit Milan on the counter, and I really don't think

184
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Speaker 3: Milan is built to go get a result here away

185
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Speaker 3: from home. So I like Porto. I think they're a

186
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Speaker 3: little undervalued, and I think they were unlucky to not

187
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Speaker 3: take any points from their first group match. So give

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Speaker 3: me Porto and the drama Betlne minus one fifteen.

189
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually gonna bet Milan here. I'm just hoping

190
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Speaker 4: that the AC Milan that we've seen in Syria shows

191
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Speaker 4: up in Champions League. As simple as that, Sometimes you

192
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Speaker 4: don't really need to get too deep into it. As

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Speaker 4: Anthony said, the numbers in Syria are basically a bang

194
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Speaker 4: on for a team that could be or should be

195
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Speaker 4: and is contending for the title. Hoping that team does

196
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Speaker 4: show up in Portugal for this one. Bjay, are you

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Speaker 4: with me or are you with Anthony?

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Speaker 1: I'm with Anthony. I like the dramo betline here as well.

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Speaker 5: I mean Porto obviously a very defensive team playing of

200
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:00,920
Speaker 5: the four to four to two.

201
00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:02,520
Speaker 1: They've been really good this season.

202
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,120
Speaker 5: Domestically, They've only allowed five point four expected goes total

203
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Speaker 5: this year, and their first match again Athletico Madrid, they

204
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,679
Speaker 5: only allowed them to create point four two expects and

205
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 5: really should have won that first match. So one thing

206
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Speaker 5: about AC Milan going back to last season, Anthony mentioned

207
00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,319
Speaker 5: the penalty and the old goal. Well, last season they

208
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Speaker 5: had the most penalties in anybody of Europe. They had

209
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Speaker 5: twenty penalties award, which was by far and away the

210
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Speaker 5: most in across the entire continent, and this season they've

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Speaker 5: already gotten three penalties as well in eight matches, so

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Speaker 5: a lot of luck for them offensively. But yeah, I

213
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Speaker 5: do think that given the injury issues with AC Milan

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Speaker 5: and the fact that Porto is so stout defensively, I

215
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Speaker 5: think there is some value on them on the drawing

216
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:43,880
Speaker 5: no bat line of minus one fifteen.

217
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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to Brube. PSG is currently

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Speaker 4: at the top of this one with four points. Club

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Speaker 4: Bruges out of Belgium. They're tied with them on points

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Speaker 4: with four than Man City at three. RB Leipzig at

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Speaker 4: the foot of the table zero points. They are in

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Speaker 4: a must win game bas against PSG, who are minus

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Speaker 4: two seventy five favorites. Leipzig comes back plus six fifty

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Speaker 4: the draw plus four twenty five. This is another three

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Speaker 4: pm kickoff. Leipzig, coached by American Jesse Marsh, have been

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Speaker 4: struggling in the Bundesliga. They just don't look like the

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Speaker 4: RB Leipzig we've watched the past three or four years.

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Speaker 4: BJ I really really, really really want to bet Leipzig

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Speaker 4: on the money line. Please tell me to do it.

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Speaker 4: Do it?

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna be fading PSG almost like every

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Speaker 1: single Champions League match throughout their campaign.

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Speaker 5: I mean, obviously they have Messi, Neymar and and killing

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Speaker 5: Ibape best front three in the world, but their last

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Speaker 5: match against Manchester City was kind of a microcosm of

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Speaker 5: what happens when PSG has to play talented attacking teams.

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Speaker 5: I mean, they just got pinned in for that entire

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Speaker 5: match and basically just sent in Bope, Neymar and Messy

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Speaker 5: out on the counter and just hope that they were

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Speaker 5: able to create something in Manchester City's end on a

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Speaker 5: counter attack. They don't really face those set talent attacking

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Speaker 5: team teams in League un France is the fifth most

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Speaker 5: difficult league in Europe based on UEFA coefficients, and the

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Speaker 5: gap between them and Germany is pretty big when you

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Speaker 5: look at the rankings points for the UWAYFA coefficients. But

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Speaker 5: the biggest problem is that mess Messi, Neymar and Mbope

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Speaker 5: they're not going to defend like they're just going to

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Speaker 5: sit up there and it's basically going to put more

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Speaker 5: pressure on PSG's defense and basically have Dunorama stand on

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Speaker 5: his head every single match, which I don't think is

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Speaker 5: a really winning type recipe and you're basically just relying

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Speaker 5: on your front three to create everything. And yeah, they're great,

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Speaker 5: but sometimes that just doesn't work. And RBI Leipsig, you know,

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Speaker 5: they have struggled to beginning of the season, but they

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Speaker 5: played PSG twice in the Champions League last year and

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Speaker 5: they outgraated them three point six to nine expected goals

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Speaker 5: to two point six. You know, things have changed for

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Speaker 5: ARBIY Leipsig. They new manager Jesse Marsh. Things haven't been

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Speaker 5: going well. They're breaking in two new center backs. They're

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Speaker 5: allowing one point four to four non penalty expected goals

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Speaker 5: per match, when last season it was around point eight,

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Speaker 5: so a pretty big gap between last year and this year.

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Speaker 5: But the attack is still there. You know, they're averaging

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Speaker 5: one point seven to six expected goals per the Bundesliga.

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Speaker 5: They just put three goals on Manchester City in their

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Speaker 5: first Champions League match, who has pretty much one of

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Speaker 5: the best defenses in the world. So I only have

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Speaker 5: PSG projected at plus one thirty so I'm gonna take

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Speaker 5: rb Leipsig plus one and a half at mis one

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Speaker 5: thirty five and they're probably gonna lose four to one,

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Speaker 5: But oh well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I can't look away from this money line.

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Speaker 4: Six and a half to one. I'm gonna take it this.

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Speaker 4: Like you said, I think Leipzig is gonna score. Will

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Speaker 4: they be able to get the two or three needed

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Speaker 4: probably to win this game? That's what it's coming down to.

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Speaker 4: This game, of course, is in Paris too, so tough

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Speaker 4: to go on the road. This is a bet that

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Speaker 4: just fills me with dread. But six and a half

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Speaker 4: to one on a really good team or team that

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Speaker 4: used to be really good not that long ago, kind

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Speaker 4: of brings up the question of where would this game

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Speaker 4: be priced if it was maybe the opener for this group.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, it definitely wouldn't be plus six fifty

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Speaker 4: next to Leipzig, Anthony. Are you making it three for

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Speaker 4: three on the Red Bulls?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? I am. We can go back to last year

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Speaker 3: and what was the line when they mad these two

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Speaker 3: teams play in Paris? PSG was minus one sixty seven.

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Speaker 3: That was the close. They're now almost a dollar more expensive.

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Speaker 3: That's absurd. And look, I know PSG added this guy

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Speaker 3: named Leo Messi and he's very good and he makes

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Speaker 3: their attack much better. But like Bja mentioned, they're defending

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Speaker 3: ten on seven. They look extremely vulnerable in transition. When

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Speaker 3: they played Bruges, Bruges outplayed them for large stretches of

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Speaker 3: that match. Was probably lucky not to lose PSG was

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Speaker 3: they really struggled in the Champions League last year against

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Speaker 3: the similar kind of Weipzig direct counter attacking style that

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Speaker 3: they're going to play in this matchup. Look, Leipzig has

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Speaker 3: had their serious issues and defensive transition themselves. That makes

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Speaker 3: this game pretty concerning to get behind them. But the

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Speaker 3: numbers in the and the Bundesligga aren't quite matching up

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Speaker 3: for me. They're expected goals numbers are middle of the pack.

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Speaker 3: They're ninth in or tenth in expected goals allowed. But

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Speaker 3: when you look at all the other metrics we look

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Speaker 3: at for defending, they're pretty much better. I mean, they're

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Speaker 3: not allowing a lot of crosses, their top four across allowed,

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Speaker 3: their top four in box entries. There's a Leipzig team

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Speaker 3: that's creating or conceding a lot of high quality chances,

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Speaker 3: which is a major concern, but they're also not conceding

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Speaker 3: the things that lead to high quality chances and what

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Speaker 3: I think long term we're going to see is that

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Speaker 3: Leipzig is going to improve defensively as they get more

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Speaker 3: used to the Mars style. When we look at this

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Speaker 3: PSG team though, just serious red flags all over the park.

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Speaker 3: I was behind them all year last year when they

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Speaker 3: were playing bigger teams who were they were able to

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Speaker 3: counter against because of how effective they can be in transition.

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Speaker 3: But Leipzig is going to be a little.

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Speaker 4: Bit different here.

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Speaker 3: Playing at home, Leipsig is going to make them have

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Speaker 3: the ball and they're going to look to hit and transition.

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Speaker 3: I have major questions about this PSG midfield. I mean

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Speaker 3: a lot of times against City it was just Adrisa

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Speaker 3: Ganage defending for himself on the edge of the penalty area,

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Speaker 3: making moves left and right, and then Markinos putting in

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Speaker 3: a last ditch effort to stop City from getting shots off.

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Speaker 3: That there's just major concerns defensively. I cannot back PSG

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Speaker 3: with their defense. So I like Leipzig plus one and

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Speaker 3: a half goals as well. I'll join it and I'll

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Speaker 3: sprinkle some money lines, so I'll take a little bit

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Speaker 3: about your picks and we'll ride on Leipzig, who I

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Speaker 3: think are going to start to turn in the corner here.

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Speaker 4: Eventually a pain party coming your way at three pm

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Speaker 4: on Tuesday. The first kickoff in that group is Man

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Speaker 4: City minus three fifty taking on Club Bruges plus eight

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Speaker 4: p fifty the draw plus four to seventy five. This

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Speaker 4: is a twelve to forty five pm kickoff, So it's

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Speaker 4: a game that probably people who want action on. I

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Speaker 4: don't see too much value in the money lines anyway,

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Speaker 4: the over under in any way, the one thing I

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Speaker 4: may get behind here is City's defense to hold up

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Speaker 4: and the citizens to win to nail at plus one ten.

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Speaker 4: I think people have this common misconception, and maybe it's

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Speaker 4: not so common anymore that City is this offensive powerhouse,

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Speaker 4: but it's their defense that leads the league, that leads

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Speaker 4: the Premier League, and expecta goles against by quite a margin.

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Speaker 4: Pep has figured it out on defense. That used to

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Speaker 4: be the biggest knock on him, Not so much anymore.

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Speaker 4: So you know, fifty, is it a fifty to fifty

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Speaker 4: chance that Man City wins to nail? I think maybe

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Speaker 4: a little bit above that. So plus one ten not

353
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Speaker 4: a band number if you want action, because otherwise I

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Speaker 4: don't really see too much going on in this game.

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Speaker 4: What about you, BJ, Yeah, it's a no play for me.

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Speaker 5: I my projections, I think I have Manchester City at

357
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Speaker 5: minus three p forty two in the total at two

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Speaker 5: point nine to eight. You know, Bruges was really good

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Speaker 5: in their first two matches. They won the you know,

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Speaker 5: they've obviously beat Leipzig in Germany and won the expected

361
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Speaker 5: goals battle, and like Anthony mentioned, that match against PSG

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Speaker 5: was really close. Bruges was one point four to six

363
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Speaker 5: expected goals to PSG's one point five to one.

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Speaker 1: So they're much improved.

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Speaker 5: I mean this is they've been in a Champions League

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Speaker 5: mainstay for a long time, they're experienced. Simo Minule is

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Speaker 5: their goalkeeper form formerly of Liverpool. They do have some young,

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Speaker 5: fun attacking talent that maybe can give Manchester City some problems.

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Speaker 5: But what's going to happen to most teams when they

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Speaker 5: play Manchester City is they're just going to get pinned

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Speaker 5: in because they can't afford to play open with Pep

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Speaker 5: guardy all aside. So I think the line is correct,

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Speaker 5: I think the over runners correct, So it's just a

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Speaker 5: pass for me.

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Speaker 4: It's a it's funny that this is kind of a

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Speaker 4: must win game for City because you know if they

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Speaker 4: give us your point, they'll still be trailing them. Assuming

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Speaker 4: PSG gets the job done against Leipzig, let's move on

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Speaker 4: Group C. This is a three pm kickoff also on Tuesday.

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Speaker 4: IAX plus one twenty five favorites at home against Dortmun

381
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Speaker 4: plus one ninety the draw plus two seventy five. The

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Speaker 4: bookmakers are expecting plenty of scoring. Three and a half

383
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Speaker 4: is the over under. I expect plenty of scoring, Anthony.

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Speaker 4: Do you just think this is just going to be

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Speaker 4: a carnival or something. It feels like it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually the match of the day for me.

387
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Speaker 3: It's the one that my TV will be. My main

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Speaker 3: TV will be Squarely on on Tuesday afternoon. This group

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Speaker 3: is ripe for goals and here we are. It's the

390
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Speaker 3: two best offenses in the group going at it. Both

391
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Speaker 3: have had some concerns defensively, for sure. I'm more concerned

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Speaker 3: about Dortmund than I am about IAX. Look five thirty

393
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Speaker 3: eight maybe wrong, and it probably is, but they've got

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Speaker 3: Iacs as the fifth best team in the world according

395
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Speaker 3: to their club rankings. My projections show i AX as

396
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Speaker 3: a better team than Dortmund. Now I think Iax is

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Speaker 3: right for a run here, and I know bj and

398
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Speaker 3: I have talked about this a bunch in this matchup,

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Speaker 3: particularly though I have serious concerns about Dortmund's defense. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they are leaking goals left and right. It seems every

401
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Speaker 3: game Doorman plays in the Bundesliga, it's they score a

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Speaker 3: goal and then concede one three minutes later, and then

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Speaker 3: score a goal. And they're very reliant on Earling Holland, who,

404
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Speaker 3: don't get me wrong, is probably the best young striker

405
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Speaker 3: in the world right now, but there's some concerns about

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Speaker 3: is he really as a lead of finishers as the

407
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Speaker 3: numbers are suggesting. At the moment, Dortmund is running more

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Speaker 3: above their expected goals than every team in the Bundesliga

409
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Speaker 3: besides Leverkusen. Defensively, they're conceding a little more than they

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Speaker 3: should be two, but they're also conceding a ton of

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Speaker 3: high quality chances, which against a team like Ajax, who

412
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Speaker 3: has produced more expected goals than anybody in the Champions

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Speaker 3: League thus far, is going to be a major issue.

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Speaker 3: Sebastian Halair has been an excellent addition for them. He's

415
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Speaker 3: already bagged. I think it's four or five goals in

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Speaker 3: the league, in the Champions League in two matches, so

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Speaker 3: he's flying high and I'm gonna get behind IAX here

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Speaker 3: on the money line, I think that it's gonna be

419
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Speaker 3: a high scoring game, so I'm not as worried about

420
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Speaker 3: a draw. I AX needs to win this if they

421
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Speaker 3: want to win the group because they know that if

422
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 3: they have to go to Dormant in two weeks they

423
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,239
Speaker 3: need to win. It's gonna be a lot tougher, so

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Speaker 3: they're not going to be looking to settle for any draws.

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Speaker 3: So I like I act some moneyline.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this game also will be a lot

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Speaker 4: of fun if you like to live bet. If Dortmunt

428
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Speaker 4: goes ahead, I'll definitely be live betting i AX. As

429
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 4: you alluded to, there are just goals galore in every

430
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Speaker 4: Dortmunt match right now. They average and this is across

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Speaker 4: all competitions, not just Bundesliga. That includes Champions League and

432
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 4: their cup competition in Germany three point nine total goals

433
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 4: per match. So I mean this is just going to

434
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 4: be a back and forth kind of It's going to

435
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 4: be like a college football game and played in the Netherlands.

436
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 4: I feel like just two offenses, gun in the ball

437
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,679
Speaker 4: all over the place. BJ. Does that mean you're going

438
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 4: to be on the over Yeah.

439
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 1: The old school Big twelve game on the Netherlands.

440
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean this is a match I mean, like

441
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 5: Anthony said, you know, I think not only the match

442
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:57,159
Speaker 5: of the day, I think maybe the match of the

443
00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 5: entire group stage that I'm like most excited for, because

444
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 5: you know, i AX obviously they just routed Sporting and Basheitas,

445
00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 5: who couldn't even barely barely field eleven guys on the field.

446
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 5: They outscored them seven to one, out created them six

447
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 5: point five three expected goals to one point three to five.

448
00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 5: And if you are unfamiliar with i AX, they just

449
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 5: obliterate everybody in the air de vs. They are averaging

450
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 5: two point six to two expected goals per match domestically

451
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 5: and I'm only allowed a total of five expected goals

452
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 5: and nine matches. But this is by far the best

453
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 5: offense that they've seen all season long. And you know,

454
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 5: Dortmann did struggle against Sporting Lisbon, they only created point

455
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 5: two to three expected goals for the match, but Early

456
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,719
Speaker 5: Holland was out for that match and in the bundest

457
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,400
Speaker 5: league of the season. You know, they're averaging one point

458
00:20:40,400 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 5: eight four non penalty expected goals per match and they've

459
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 5: created sixteen big scoring chances, which is defined as because

460
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 5: I'll mention it a lot as point three to five

461
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 5: XG rating or higher, so thirty five percent chance or

462
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 5: greater of going in on a single shot. And I

463
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 5: think they'll just be able to create a lot of

464
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 5: those high quality chances against IAX. And the one thing

465
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 5: also about i AX is they're on a third choice

466
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 5: goalkeeper right now, so there could be some goalkeeping errors

467
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 5: in this one. But like Antony said, you know, the

468
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 5: defensive woes for Dormand.

469
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 1: Are real right now.

470
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 5: You know, they're only allowing one point one eight expected

471
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 5: goles for match, but in their three biggest matches against Frankfurt,

472
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 5: Hoffenheim and Gladbach, they allowed a total of five point

473
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 5: eight two expected goals and they've allowed eleven big scoring

474
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 5: chances in the Bundesliga this season. So for two teams

475
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 5: that play a extremely open style of play, there's gonna

476
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 5: be so many chances at both ends.

477
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 1: I'm so excited to watch.

478
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,639
Speaker 5: That it might be you know, it might be a

479
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 5: square play but I love over three and a half

480
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 5: goals at plus one twenty five.

481
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's definitely one to back the over with that.

482
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 4: It's I can't imagine betting an under or feeling just

483
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 4: the dread of betting the under in a match like this.

484
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 4: It would be like, like you said, betting Oklahoma State

485
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 4: bedlam right, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and seeing the total at

486
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 4: eighty one. I mean like I just gotta I just

487
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 4: gotta take the over. If this is the match of

488
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 4: the group stage, the other Group C matchup is probably

489
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 4: at the opposite end of the spectrum. Bashika's Out of

490
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 4: Turkey or plus two hundred underdogs at home against Sporting

491
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 4: plus one thirty. The draw sits at plus two forty.

492
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 4: Both of these teams have zero points I at stortment,

493
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 4: both at six, so it's basically an elimination game. It's

494
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 4: at twelve forty five pm on Tuesday. I've got absolutely

495
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 4: nothing on this one, Anthony.

496
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean either one note Lisbon kind of a

497
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 3: defensive luck box, a little bit running well above or

498
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 3: I guess well below what they should have conceded dating

499
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 3: back to last season. Even when you look at their

500
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 3: expected goals numbers, they ran pretty lucky. And the other

501
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:39,360
Speaker 3: note here is that Europa League matters for these teams.

502
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 3: I know that they're not going to qualify out of

503
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 3: the Champions League group, but what you're going to see

504
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 3: is that playing for that point makes a huge difference

505
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 3: when it comes down to these next two matches, which

506
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,479
Speaker 3: could decide who goes to the Europa League and who doesn't.

507
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: And that makes a big difference for these clubs. So

508
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: probably don't think it's going to be a particularly open,

509
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 3: high scoring match. Has been tends to be pretty conservative

510
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 3: and and tends to try to you know, pack it

511
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 3: in and try to rely on its defense to prevent goals.

512
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 3: But like I mentioned, they're a little bit due for

513
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 3: some negative defensive aggression. So overall staying away from this game,

514
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 3: but I think that it will be an interesting watch

515
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 3: just because these teams need the result to get out

516
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 3: of the into the Europa League.

517
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: And obviously LIS beIN with some hell to travel having

518
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 4: to go across the continent from Portugal to istanbul Let's

519
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 4: move to Group D. I can't believe I'm saying this,

520
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 4: but that group is topped right now by Sheriff Terris

521
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 4: Bowl at six points. Real Madrid at three points, entered

522
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 4: Milan at one point and Shakhtar Denesk at one point.

523
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 4: The game we'll start with here is another early kickoff.

524
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 4: It's Real Madrid minus one seventy five against Shakhtar plus

525
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 4: four fifty the draw plus three twenty BJ.

526
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 5: I like Shockstar plus one at home here. I mean

527
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 5: this is a rematch of last season in the Champions

528
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 5: League when Shoktar beat Realman twice, and one of those

529
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 5: matches was in Ukraine, when Shocktar had a COVID outbreak

530
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 5: and seven starters route and they somehow still beat Real Madrid.

531
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,280
Speaker 5: This time around, I think they had to have another

532
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 5: good shot at chance of pulling off an upset against them.

533
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 5: I mean, they looked much better against Inter than they

534
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 5: did against Sheriff. The XG battle was pretty close, but

535
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 5: Shocktar had more shot creating actions and held sixty six

536
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 5: percent possession. Real Madrid is a little banged up coming

537
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,959
Speaker 5: into this match. Danny Carnivar, Hall for Len Mendi, Eastco

538
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 5: and Gareth Bale will all be out and a couple

539
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 5: other guys are questionable, and Real Madrid has been running

540
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 5: really hot offensively. They've scored twenty two goals in La

541
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 5: Liga on fifteen point one two expected goals, so there

542
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 5: will be some offensitive regression coming at some point this season.

543
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 5: They also haven't been that dominant defensively. Domestically, They've allowed

544
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 5: the eighth most shot creating actions, tenth motes touches in

545
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 5: their own final third, and they have the twelfth best

546
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 5: pressure success rate. It's also gonna be little Chili in

547
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 5: Kiev on Tuesday in the low forties during the match

548
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 5: when Real Madrid is really not used to playing in

549
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 5: that because it's a beautiful seventy degrees and Sonny pretty

550
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 5: much every day in Spain. So I have Real Madrid

551
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 5: projected at minus one twenty two. So I do think

552
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 5: there's some value on Shaktar at plus one at minus

553
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 5: one oh five at home to get a result.

554
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, Shaktar is one of two teams in this group

555
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,360
Speaker 4: that plays in a disputed territory in their country. Den

556
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 4: Esk of course is in Ukraine, but only in name only.

557
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 4: I guess yeah, I'm gonna be on Shaktar in this one.

558
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 4: The It's just it's so much fun to bet against

559
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 4: these teams going to the Ukraine or to Russia or wherever.

560
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 4: You watch Koreean Benzima just struggling. You know, the saying

561
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 4: is can you do it in a rainy night in

562
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 4: Stoke in soccer? Well, this one is can you do

563
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 4: it on a chili night in Denesk. So I'll take

564
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 4: Shocktar plus four to fifty first small bet, Anthony, What

565
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 4: about you?

566
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't decide here if I want to go

567
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 3: with the shaktar plus one of the under three goals.

568
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: I'm in a bit of a debate. I just don't

569
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,959
Speaker 3: really know how much I can trust this Shaktar attack

570
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 3: right now. Lacina Triore, who's probably their best attacker, is

571
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 3: now out for the year. He had a really bad

572
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: knee injury in the intermatch, and they created a couple

573
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 3: of chances, but they mostly came off set pieces, and

574
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:11,360
Speaker 3: that's where I think they can get at this real

575
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 3: Madrid team. Look, real Madrid. We can talk about how

576
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 3: good Carenton Benzema is. He is amazing, but he's not

577
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 3: nearly as good as the finishing numbers early in the

578
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 3: season would suggest. Same with Venetius Junior, who the narrative

579
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,159
Speaker 3: on him for like four years was all you know,

580
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 3: he just can't finish and now, you know, all he

581
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 3: can do is find bottom corners of the net, which

582
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 3: is funny how that works. But the reality is that

583
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 3: it's somewhere in the middle. And they've scored twenty two

584
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: goals from fourteen and change expected in the in La Liga.

585
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 3: They came out roaring hot and the schooled off a

586
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 3: little bit. They also haven't played in a few weeks.

587
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 3: They did not play this weekend. They were supposed to do,

588
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 3: but then it got canceled because the players coming back

589
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 3: from international break. I wonder what the situation is there

590
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 3: these players. A lot of the players coming from South

591
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 3: America right are getting to Spain on the weekend and

592
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 3: then they have to go to Ukraine, you know, for

593
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 3: a midweek match. So it's a lot of travel, a

594
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,479
Speaker 3: lot of jetlag for some of these players who are

595
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: traveling a lot more than they usually would. So it's

596
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,239
Speaker 3: probably gonna end up being in either shacktar plus one

597
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 3: or an under For me, I just haven't quite decided,

598
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:16,719
Speaker 3: but you can follow me in the action app and

599
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 3: figure out where I end up on this one.

600
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 4: If you're listening to the show, you're someone maybe who

601
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 4: listens to the Big Bets on Campus podcast or the

602
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 4: NFL podcast we have on the Action Network. Think of

603
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 4: it like if you took the University of Miami and said,

604
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 4: all right, it's November eighth, go play a game in Laramie,

605
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 4: Wyoming and set the spread at like, you know, plus

606
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: twenty six for Wyoming. That's how this game feels to me. So,

607
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,880
Speaker 4: I mean, how can you not bet Wyoming in that game?

608
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 4: How can you not bet Shaktart in this one. Let's

609
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 4: move on to the other team in a disputed territory here,

610
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 4: that's our beloved FC Sheriff in Tiraspol, which is sort

611
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 4: of in Moldova, sort of not in Moldova. We'll leave

612
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 4: that to the Action Networks European Politics pod, which was

613
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 4: soon to launch. Of course. They're thirteen to one underdogs

614
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 4: against Inter Milan, who were minus five fifty. That draw

615
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 4: plus six point fifty. I mean, it's a must win

616
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 4: game for Inter They're on one point, and here we

617
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 4: are talking about Sheriff at six points. It's not a

618
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 4: must win game for Sheriff somehow, bj is do you

619
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 4: see anything on this match from a betting standpoint? I

620
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 4: know you see a lot from a geopolitical intrigue standpoint,

621
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 4: But from a betting standpoint.

622
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna let you handle the geopolitical stuff. But

623
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: they were incredibly lucky to beat Real Madrid.

624
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 5: It was obviously a very historic upset, but Real Madrid

625
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 5: out created them three point two expect goals to point

626
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 5: three to five, and I somehow still one two to one.

627
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 5: You know, my projections have inter pretty close to what

628
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 5: the actual money line is and pretty close to the

629
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 5: over under as well. I'll be honest, like, from an

630
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 5: analytical standpoint, there's just not that much trust in data

631
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 5: that comes out of Moldova, So I really, I really

632
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 5: don't know what to do with them or how to

633
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 5: project them sometimes. So you know, luckily the first two

634
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 5: matches I've been able to stay away from them, and

635
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 5: I think this will be another situation where I'm just

636
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 5: going to have to stay away and just, you know,

637
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,479
Speaker 5: maybe root for another historic upset.

638
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 4: I don't believe you that the Moldovan Premier League has

639
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 4: bad data, Anthony, are you going to betting this wonderful match?

640
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: On the Champions League preview pod, I said I was

641
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 3: going to look to fade this team at every possible turn.

642
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: That's aged pretty well, and they got what I thought

643
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 3: was a deserved win. Watched the whole match against Shaktar

644
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 3: if that they were the better team. The interesting thing

645
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 3: about this Sheriff team, compared to a lot of these

646
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 3: lower tiered division teams that win their league, is that

647
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 3: they tend to boss their domestic leagues because they're the

648
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 3: best team. They tend to have a lot of the ball,

649
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 3: they tend to be used to having the ball, and

650
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: then they go play a team who is not going

651
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 3: to let them have the ball and they are completely

652
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 3: unable to defend whatsoever. Well, let's flash forward now, Shaktar

653
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: created very little against them in ninety minutes. It was

654
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: a pretty poor performance from them Real Madrid. Yes, there

655
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 3: were three point three expected goals. There was a penalty

656
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 3: mixed in there, but a lot of those chances. If

657
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 3: you go back and look, they had a lot of

658
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 3: block shots, They got a lot of numbers behind the ball.

659
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 3: They were incredibly disciplined. The goalie made a few couple

660
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 3: of pretty big saves, but nothing, you know, extraordinary. I

661
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,480
Speaker 3: wouldn't say he was necessarily standing on his head. And

662
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: then they did an ultimate match and grab and turned

663
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 3: their two legitimate chances into goals. So far, they've had

664
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 3: one expected goal, they've scored four. They've conceded four point

665
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: two expected goals, they've only conceded one actual goal. So

666
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:28,640
Speaker 3: this team has has really defied all logic. And what

667
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,239
Speaker 3: I think here is going to happen is that I'm

668
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 3: gonna go under three and a half goals. And the

669
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,479
Speaker 3: reason for that is I think Sheriff is not going

670
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 3: to create anything in this game. I think they're in

671
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 3: huge trouble in terms of trying to do anything against

672
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 3: this inter defense, which has been pretty solid there, and

673
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,240
Speaker 3: you look at incher from the offensive point of view,

674
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 3: they're running really hot in front of goal. They've they've

675
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 3: started the Siris season, They've they've they've lost Lukaku and

676
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: they've lost a Kimi and there, and they've lost Ericson.

677
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 3: They're not nearly as potent offensively, but they've made up

678
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 3: for it by finishing better, which in the short term

679
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: can work, but in the long term dozen I think

680
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 3: Inters due for some regression here. I think under three

681
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: and a half goals here, I think it's a sleepy game.

682
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 3: I'll take under three and a half goals minus one

683
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 3: twenty five or better.

684
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 4: All right, and that would wrap up the Tuesday slate,

685
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 4: so we'll flip the page move into Wednesday. I think

686
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 4: the headliner here is pretty clear as well. That's Manchester

687
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 4: United minus won thirty five favorites against Adelanta plus three

688
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 4: sixty the draw plus two to seventy five. This game

689
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 4: is taking place at Old Trafford, the Theater of dreams.

690
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 4: It has not been a theater of dreams for this

691
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 4: Manchester United team lately. It feels like Manchester United's game

692
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 4: plan is just a brand and as a club has

693
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 4: been to turn Old Trafford into like a Manchester United

694
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 4: nostalgia theme park. It's very strange. This group right now

695
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: at Alanta is four points in first place. Young boys

696
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 4: who beat United in their Champions League opener at three,

697
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: United at three via Real at one. I got to

698
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 4: admit I was pretty surprised that United was priced minus

699
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 4: one thirty five after their loss to Leicester this over

700
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 4: the weekend and just the way things have been going

701
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 4: for the club, Anthony, do you see anything this game

702
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 4: where us shocked? As I was at the minus sign

703
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 4: next to United.

704
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 3: It really didn't move. I think the market, unfortunately, has

705
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 3: been on this Manchester United thing. For a little while,

706
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 3: but they're just not that good. They've added Christiano Ronaldo,

707
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 3: who is very good when in terms of the fact

708
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 3: that he's got all got four goals that he's scored

709
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 3: for them, three of which have come on rebound tappens

710
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 3: and the fourth of which went through the goalie's legs

711
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 3: from about fifteen yards out. Pretty poor piece of goalkeeping.

712
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 3: Rinaldo is offering absolutely nothing in terms of pressing the

713
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 3: front line of the opponent. His pressure rate in the

714
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 3: prem like total pressures is the lowest in the league

715
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 3: of regular starters per ninety, so he's not offering much.

716
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 3: They're playing a man down essentially without the ball. They

717
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 3: have no plan to progress the ball through the midfield.

718
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: It's you know, and Karl Anko of the Athletic has

719
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: been getting dragged on Twitter for this take that he's had,

720
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 3: and you know, he was kind of ripping olea gon

721
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 3: to Solsha a few weeks ago for the fact that

722
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 3: they're playing against teams like aston Villa and Everton, who

723
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 3: they should be and have way more talent then, yet

724
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 3: they're getting absolutely destroyed in transition. They look completely lost

725
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 3: on the ball and they pretty much hope that one

726
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 3: of their really good players beats a man, gets across

727
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 3: in or gets a good shot off and you know

728
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 3: they score a goal off of a Greenwood. Amazing stunning

729
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 3: goal against Lester but they concede over two and a

730
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 3: half expected goals.

731
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 4: Harry maguire looked off the pace.

732
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 3: They played a Pogma Mattic double pivot, which does not

733
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: work against competent teams which Lester is and Atalanta definitely is.

734
00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 3: This is a really fascinating stylistic matchup. On one hand,

735
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 3: you have an Adelota team that's gonna man mark. They're

736
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: going to press high. They are going to apply a

737
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: lot of pressure to Manchester United, which United has done

738
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 3: relatively well against in the past. We've seen teams like

739
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 3: Leads who have gotten absolute ripped apart by Manchester United.

740
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 3: But they're also going to force men United to play

741
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 3: a lot of pass out of the back and try

742
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 3: to progress the ball with a lot of resistance. And

743
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 3: I have been able to do that at all recently.

744
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: So it's a really interesting matchup. But what I think

745
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 3: here is going to be a lot of United turnovers

746
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 3: in their own half from Adalana's press one. And I

747
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: think when Adalanta gets broken through. United's attacking talent pretty

748
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 3: much does the ball progression for them. They get the

749
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: ball into the final third, they're gonna be extremely dangerous.

750
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 3: I think there's gonna be a lot of chances at

751
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 3: both ends here. I like over three at minus one twenty.

752
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 3: United defensively running really hot because David de has been incredible.

753
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 3: How long is that going to last. He's been pretty

754
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 3: much a league average keeper for three years until the

755
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 3: last seven or eight games. I don't expected to last.

756
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 3: So I think this game is going to have a

757
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 3: lot of chances at both ends, a lot of goals,

758
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 3: and I don't really show a ton on the money line,

759
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 3: but I do like over three goals.

760
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 4: It's always fun. When United's struggling. The English media just

761
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 4: sinks its teeth in. I think it was Jonathan Wilson

762
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 4: who coined the nostalgia theme park, and you just described

763
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,959
Speaker 4: exactly what a Manchester United theme park would look like. Right,

764
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 4: here's Christian or Ronaldo scoring a tap in goal. You know,

765
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 4: it's just it's absurd. They're eleven to one, by the way,

766
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 4: six favorites still to win the whole competition. Don't know

767
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 4: if they deserve that price either. I think I might

768
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 4: try to bet it live over here if it's pretty

769
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 4: quiet in the first fifteen minutes or so, get a

770
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 4: try to get in maybe a two and a half

771
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 4: or two if I can BJ What about you, Do

772
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 4: you see anything in United at Atlanta?

773
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll be honest, I really don't like this pick

774
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 5: at all, but I do have some projected value great endorsement.

775
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 5: The main reason for that is because there's just honestly

776
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 5: a really big gap in the competition between the Premier

777
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 5: League and Siria I almost like a twenty five point

778
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 5: in the UAFA coefficient rankings. I'm just going to trust

779
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 5: my projections and take MANCHESTERI MIUS one thirty five, which

780
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 5: is kind of more of a bet against Atlanta, who, honestly,

781
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 5: in their first Champions League magicins VRL did not look

782
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 5: that great defensively allowed Viial to create two point.

783
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,240
Speaker 1: Two expected goals. So yeah, I'll go.

784
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 5: With Manchester un out of the theater of dreams and

785
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 5: they're nostalgic forward who's thirty six years old.

786
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: Now.

787
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 3: The one interesting thing Joseph Ilichic to start on Sunday

788
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 3: for Adelanta played really well. He is really important for

789
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 3: ball progression. He's the kind of guy who can give

790
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 3: this United defense a lot of trouble. We'll see what

791
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 3: Gasparini does in terms of how he sets this team up.

792
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 3: They went to Liverpool last year lost five to nil.

793
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: They then won the reverse fixture. I don't know what

794
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 3: to expect. I think we're gonna get some chaos in

795
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:18,399
Speaker 3: this match.

796
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 5: Robin Ghosten's also questionable or maybe not gonna play for Atlanta.

797
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 4: The other match in this one is some thin ice too.

798
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 4: It's like phillar Real one point plus one ten taking

799
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 4: on young boys who are sitting relatively pretty three points

800
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 4: there plus two to fifty underdogs at home to draw

801
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 4: plus two thirty. I actually don't like the game. However,

802
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 4: I might take a shot on via Real, either to

803
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 4: win the group at nine to one, or even go

804
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 4: a little crazier and have them win the whole tournament

805
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 4: at two hundred to one. Hear me out right that

806
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 4: this is a team that their numbers aren't too great

807
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 4: right now, but if they do advance out of this group,

808
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 4: this is a team that is just a bear to

809
00:36:56,600 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 4: beat in tournaments. Uniamori just won the Europa League. He

810
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 4: beat Manchester United in that final in a shootout. Maybe

811
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 4: it's a cliche or stereotype with some of these good

812
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 4: Spanish well structured defensive teams like via Real and Sevilla,

813
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 4: that they're just good tournament teams, but they win tournaments.

814
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 4: Sevilla won like twenty five Europa leagues this decade, and

815
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 4: we've seen so many heartbreaking losses from Viareal already this season.

816
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 4: But like I said, I don't think there's much in

817
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 4: this game for me from a betting perspective. But if

818
00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,279
Speaker 4: you are new to betting on Champions League, you want

819
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 4: a team to attach a long shot future too. Viarel

820
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 4: would be my choice two hundred and one because I

821
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:33,319
Speaker 4: still think that they're not a terrible shout to get

822
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 4: out of this group. They're what one basically one game

823
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 4: behind the team at first place Atlanta, who you guys

824
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 4: just said a little bit of a paper tiger. We

825
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 4: know Manchester United paper tiger, and then the other team

826
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 4: in there, young boys. I think it's still wide open.

827
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 4: Bja am I crazy.

828
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 1: No, not at all.

829
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 5: I mean, Viral's honestly really unlucky. You don't have one

830
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 5: point right now, four point seven expected goals compared to

831
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 5: only two point two, and they're two Champions League matches.

832
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 5: Like I said earlier, they should have beaten Atlanta and

833
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 5: they really should have beat man United and their last

834
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 5: Champions League match, So no, I don't think it's crazy

835
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 5: at all. It's obviously a very well organized, structured squad

836
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 5: that's now starting to actually create a lot of chances

837
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 5: instead of playing very defensive.

838
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 1: So no, I don't think you're crazy at all, Michael.

839
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 3: I mean I don't have a lot of belief right

840
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 3: now in Manchester United. I definitely don't have a lot

841
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 3: of belief in Atlanta. And when you think about this

842
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 3: Villa Reale team, their ability to hit on the counter

843
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: when they play Atlanta at Atalanta makes them a sneaky threat.

844
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 3: And then Man United, we know about their history with

845
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 3: villar Real. Almost every game has ended in a goalless tie,

846
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:31,759
Speaker 3: and we finally got some goals in the last match.

847
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 3: But there's gonna be a lot of pressure when those

848
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 3: two teams meet at the end of the group stage

849
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 3: on Menschter United and not a lot of pressure on

850
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 3: villar Real.

851
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 4: So there you have it. Go to your bookmaker of choice.

852
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 4: Two hundred to one via Reale, like the nine to

853
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 4: one on the group better, well, maybe split the stake

854
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 4: nine to one two hundred to one. Then you can

855
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 4: tweet at us when it loses after they get upset

856
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 4: by young boys on Wednesday.

857
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 1: Let's move on Group E.

858
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 4: This one is topped by Bayern Munich, perhaps the best

859
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 4: team in Europe right now, Benfica at four points, Byron

860
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 4: sitting at six, Benfica at four, Dinomo Kiev at one.

861
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 4: And then how about this one Barcelona zero points, foot

862
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 4: of the table. We'll get to that match next, but

863
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,719
Speaker 4: first let's start with a game that is going to

864
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 4: be a lot of fun. I think, just from a

865
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 4: game theory standpoint Byron minus two fifty favorites against Benfica,

866
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 4: who are seven to one the draw plus three seventy five.

867
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 4: This is a three pm kickoff on Wednesday. BJ I

868
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: am very ready to do something I think I'm going

869
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 4: to regret.

870
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, this one's going to suck because I'm taking Benafica

871
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 5: plus one and a half minus one twenty five Byron.

872
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,359
Speaker 5: Munich's overvalued here and let me kind of explain this,

873
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 5: because I don't think people see Byron Munich. They see

874
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 5: the result this weekend against Leverkusten, they win five one.

875
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 5: Oh my gosh, Byron, Muic's the best team in the world.

876
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 5: How could you ever bet against them? Okay, let me

877
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 5: kind of explain this a little bit. Byron last season

878
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 5: wildly overperformed their expected goals numbers. They scored ninety nine

879
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 5: goals in the Bundesliga off of seventy five point two

880
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 5: to three expected goals, and a lot of it has

881
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 5: do the fact that head they have one of the

882
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 5: most clinical finishers in the world.

883
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: And Robin Lewandowski who makes up for a lot of that.

884
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 5: So byermuk's not going to regress all the way down

885
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:08,240
Speaker 5: to seventy five goals, but it's going to meet somewhere

886
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 5: in the middle. They can't just keep up the scoring

887
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 5: right now. This season they've been a little closer to

888
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 5: their expected goals, have been closer to what their actual

889
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 5: goal numbers are. But I actually had to go in

890
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,520
Speaker 5: and make manual adjustments to my projections because I was

891
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 5: way off on this one. And I can still only

892
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 5: get Bayern Munich to minus one thirty fives. And a

893
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 5: lot of that has to do with the fact that

894
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,360
Speaker 5: Benefica is a really, really good team. They're probably the

895
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:33,200
Speaker 5: second best team in Europe outside of the major five

896
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 5: leagues behind I as they led Porchugal last season with

897
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 5: the plus thirty five point three expected goal differential this

898
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 5: season plus fourteen point three expected gold differential in eight matches,

899
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 5: Portugal is the sixth most difficult league in Europe, so

900
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 5: this is absolutely a legit team. They have some experience

901
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,280
Speaker 5: on their back line, Nicholas Attamendi and Jan ver tonkin

902
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 5: to longtime Premier League defenders, will be we'll be.

903
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 1: Able to hopefully hold Robin Lewandowski.

904
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 5: In check and some of the other attacking players Benefica

905
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 5: from a squad value standpoint. Also two hundred and seventy

906
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 5: nine million according to transfer market, that is the second

907
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 5: highest behind IAX outside of the main five leagues. They

908
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 5: also just drilled by Barcelona three nothing in the last

909
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 5: Champions League match, so this is not a team to

910
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 5: be taken lightly. Who's especially at home. And also you know,

911
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 5: based on the ranking points Germany, the gap between Germany

912
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,879
Speaker 5: and Portugal is actually closer than the.

913
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: Gap between Germany and England.

914
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 5: So I don't think that Bayern much should even be

915
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 5: close to minus two fifty on the road. I mean,

916
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 5: other projections side, it's like five point thirty eight has

917
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,439
Speaker 5: only a fifty two percent INFO Goalie only hasn't met

918
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 5: fifty eight percent. So I'm gonna hop on the pain

919
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 5: train and take Benefica plus one and a half at

920
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 5: minus one twenty five. And you know, eventually, maybe I'll

921
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 5: wave the white flag on Byron.

922
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 1: But not this week, I guess.

923
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 4: No, not this week. Definitely not this week, my friend,

924
00:41:54,280 --> 00:41:56,399
Speaker 4: I like Benfica seven to one on the money line.

925
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 4: You can't keep me away from that one. This team

926
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 4: is a very solid defensively. Maybe you know, there's a

927
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 4: hope in hell that they can just keep this Buyern attack.

928
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 4: Maybe they catch him on a sleepy day in Portugal

929
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 4: or something, Anthony, what about you?

930
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, I love to play against Byron more often

931
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 3: than not. They tend to be a very overrated public favorite,

932
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:18,360
Speaker 3: and here we are. They thrash Barcelona, they thrash Dinamo Kiev,

933
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 3: and they're an overvalued favorite here. And like Bja mentioned,

934
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 3: the thing for me is every projection system I look at,

935
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 3: from BJ's numbers to what I have to what five

936
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 3: point thirty eight in INFO goal both have all have

937
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 3: Byron under sixty two percent.

938
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:30,879
Speaker 4: To win this.

939
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 3: Game, the implied odds of a minus two fifty favorite

940
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 3: a whole lot higher than sixty two percent, closer to

941
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 3: seventy seventy five. So you know, will I feel good

942
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 3: about this game when Byron is up a goal in

943
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 3: the eighty eighth minute. Still know, if they're up a

944
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 3: goal in the in the stoppage time, I still won't

945
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:47,800
Speaker 3: feel good about my plus one and a half, just

946
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 3: because of how potent this Byron team can be. Lewandowski

947
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 3: hasn't always been a great finisher, which is part of

948
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 3: the regression that has come for Byron a little bit

949
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 3: offensively this year. They're just creating a ton of chances.

950
00:42:57,840 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 3: He's always been on like an average finisher until the

951
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,760
Speaker 3: last two years when he became this like dynamo finisher

952
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 3: out of nowhere, and it surprisingly has not lasted. But

953
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 3: the thing for me with Benfica BJ already mentioned how

954
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 3: stout they are defensively. For me, it's their counter attacking ability,

955
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 3: which they showed against Barcelona that I didn't really expect

956
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 3: them to have. I had Barcelona in that game I lost.

957
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 3: I did not expect them to show as much potency

958
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 3: and competency in counterattacking that Barcelona team and I think

959
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 3: they can find some success counterattacking through this Bayern midfield.

960
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 3: They haven't looked particularly vulnerable, but I still think with

961
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 3: the same almost the same personnel as last year, they're

962
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:36,400
Speaker 3: going to have some defensive issues down the road. Maybe

963
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 3: that comes on Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully it does and Benfica

964
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 3: can get on the board, because I think we're gonna

965
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 3: need a goal from Benfica to get this plus one

966
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 3: and a half in. But I agree, I'm on plus

967
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 3: one and a half at minus one thirty or better.

968
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,759
Speaker 4: The twelve forty five pm kickoff in this group is

969
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 4: Barcelona minus four hundred. They take on dina Ho Kiev

970
00:43:55,400 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 4: ten to one. The draw plus five fifty. We always

971
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 4: talk about betting on teams. Who are you betting on?

972
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 4: Do you want to bet on this team? I'm looking

973
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,320
Speaker 4: at this one as I want to bet against Barcelona.

974
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 4: They make me sick. I can't get them right betting

975
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 4: on them this season because I keep treating them as

976
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 4: if they are Barcelona of past years. They are not.

977
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 4: They are not that good. I think they're pretty mediocre. Actually,

978
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 4: So if you offered me ten to one against the

979
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 4: team that is a paper tiger and mediocre team that

980
00:44:27,520 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 4: has just not shown anything. I'm going to take the

981
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 4: ten to one, So give me Dinamo Kiev plus one thousand,

982
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 4: ten to one. However you want to look at it.

983
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 4: They're going to lose, but it's like, I just can't

984
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 4: pass up this number against Barcelona right now, BJ what

985
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 4: about you?

986
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm actually gonn look at the total for this.

987
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go under three goals a plus one of five. Now,

988
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 5: Barcelona's obviously not the offensive powerhouse then when they had

989
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 5: Leonel Messi. I mean they're only averaging one point five

990
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 5: to nine non penalty expected goals for match this season,

991
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 5: when last year they averaged two point zero five non

992
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 5: penalty goals per match. But defensively they've been really I

993
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 5: mean they only allow point eight nine non penalty expected

994
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 5: goals per match, they have the fewest touches in their

995
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 5: own final third, they have the best pressure success rate,

996
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:12,280
Speaker 5: and they've allowed the third fewest shot creating actions defensively

997
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 5: in their first two matches. Yeah, they were not great

998
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 5: against Bayern Munich and Benefica, but Deno.

999
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 1: O Keev is not an offensive powerhouse.

1000
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 5: They only created point nine to one expect goals in

1001
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 5: their first two Champions League matches. They only average one

1002
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 5: point eight one expected goals per match in the Ukrainian

1003
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 5: Premier League, which is eleventh best or eleventh most difficult

1004
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:33,359
Speaker 5: based on UEFA coefficients. It's going to be difficult for

1005
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,800
Speaker 5: Barcelona to create a lot of high quality chances. And

1006
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 5: I only have two point twenty six goals projected for

1007
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 5: this match, so I think there's some value on under

1008
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 5: three goals at plus one oh five.

1009
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 4: This Barcelona team also might have quit on its manager,

1010
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 4: Ronald Cooman, who's basically been shown the door, but Barcelona

1011
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 4: just doesn't have the money to replace him. They just

1012
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 4: know he's going to leave. So I don't know how

1013
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 4: this team gets up for it. Like I said, with

1014
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 4: all the things that are going wrong at the camp,

1015
00:45:56,960 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 4: new if you're going to offer me ten to one

1016
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 4: to go against them, I'll take it. Anthony, come join me.

1017
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 3: I'm buying low on Barcelona, not in this match but overall,

1018
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 3: and I'm going down with the ship. You know, a

1019
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 3: couple of years ago, like I was the top guy

1020
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 3: saying Barcelona cliff is coming like something that it's been

1021
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 3: in the numbers for years, Like the minute Leo Messi

1022
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 3: leaves this club, they're gonna fall off a cliff, but

1023
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 3: the cliff has not come that fast. Like, there's signs

1024
00:46:21,080 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 3: that this team can be up reasonable you know, top

1025
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,720
Speaker 3: five team in Spain who's pretty good in the Champions

1026
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 3: League and nowhere near the quality to win it or

1027
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 3: come close to even probably advancing out of the round

1028
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 3: of sixteen. But at plus one seventy five, I think

1029
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 3: it's worth a flyer on Barcelona to win this group.

1030
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 3: When you look at the matchups here, Byron is gonna

1031
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 3: play Barsia on the last day of the group. Byron

1032
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 3: will have likely already clinched the group. They will have

1033
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 3: likely beaten Benfica twice and route to clinching said group,

1034
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 3: which basically means that Barcelona just needs to do the

1035
00:46:50,719 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 3: double against Kiev, get a result against Benfica, and then

1036
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 3: win on the final day or get a result against

1037
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 3: Byron to get that job done. They're gonna be at

1038
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 3: home against Benfica in the second match. There'll be pretty

1039
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 3: significant favorites in that one. The floor has not quite

1040
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 3: fallen out yet. It can, but it hasn't yet, and

1041
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 3: so I'm going to try to catch the falling knife.

1042
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 3: As they say, by Loo on Barcelona here to advance

1043
00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 3: out of the group. Now, if they lose, they're done.

1044
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 3: That will be the fastest bet of Future has ever died.

1045
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:25,000
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Speaker 2: in Iowa, or one eight eight eight five three to

1074
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 2: two thirty five hundred in Virginia, betsinc. Not available in Nevada.

1075
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the.

1076
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 4: Show, all right. Let's move on. Group G Salzburg Jesse

1077
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 4: Marsh's old team there top of the group right now,

1078
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 4: if four points, Sevilla at two points, Wolfsburg at two,

1079
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 4: Lil at one point. We said coming into this Champions

1080
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 4: League season, and we were not alone in this thinking

1081
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 4: obviously that this would be the most wide open group.

1082
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 4: It's certainly playing out that way. We'll start with the

1083
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,839
Speaker 4: twelve forty five pm kickoff between Salzburg their plus one

1084
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 4: twenty five favorites against Wolfsburg who are plus two hundred

1085
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 4: the draw plus two fifty. I don't really see much

1086
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 4: in this one. I think this one might be pretty

1087
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 4: quick to go around bj No.

1088
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 5: I just want to rant about Salzburg honestly, because they're

1089
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 5: really pissing me off right now. Five penalties. They've had

1090
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 5: five penalties and two matches, so yeah, this is a

1091
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 5: no play for me. And if Salsburg gets another penalty,

1092
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 5: I'm gonna throw my computer through a window.

1093
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 4: All right. We'll kick it over to the three pm

1094
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:47,399
Speaker 4: kickoff between Sevilla their plus one ten lil plus two

1095
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 4: sixty the draw plus two twenty five. I like the draw.

1096
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 4: I think this is going to be a defensive showdown.

1097
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 4: The over hunder is pretty low. I like Benning Sevilla draws.

1098
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 4: Their fun team to watch, tied other teams at one one, Anthony,

1099
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 4: what about you?

1100
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 3: It may be the first person I've ever heard that

1101
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 3: said Sevilla is fun to watch.

1102
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 4: If you have the draw. They're a lot of fun.

1103
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,360
Speaker 3: Yes, when it is one to one late and severe

1104
00:50:08,440 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 3: are just swinging in crosses and nobody's there and they

1105
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 3: have no shot.

1106
00:50:12,200 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 4: That is, they're gonnadd as a drug to make that

1107
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 4: exact style of soccer with a draw ticket.

1108
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 1: Come on, so you'll get a double dose with LIL

1109
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 1: on this match.

1110
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 3: Lel stinks. They were not good when they won League

1111
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:26,919
Speaker 3: ON last year. They have not been great in League

1112
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 3: ON this year. They lost the goalkeeper. The goalkeeper performance

1113
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 3: has been significantly worse this year. I have to get

1114
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 3: Seville here. They haven't looked great in the Champions League,

1115
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 3: but they've looked much better in Spain. Spain, they have

1116
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:39,399
Speaker 3: the number one expected goal difference in the league. They're

1117
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,879
Speaker 3: almost a goal better than their opponents and expected goals

1118
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 3: per ninety. Right now, I think that we're dealing with

1119
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:48,000
Speaker 3: a Sevia team that is a little bit undervalued here

1120
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:50,280
Speaker 3: because of the low total. But I am not buying

1121
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 3: into the real defense whatsoever. So give me Sevilla on

1122
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 3: the money line anything plus money's fine.

1123
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:59,399
Speaker 5: One thing, Lil's defense actually is due for a lot

1124
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 5: of positive aggression. You know. Obviously they've allowed fifteen goals

1125
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:05,760
Speaker 5: this season. They have the lowest non penalty expectables allowed

1126
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 5: in League on seven.

1127
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 1: Point two four.

1128
00:51:08,040 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 5: So the defense is still there, it's just they're just

1129
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 5: getting really unlucky. And offensively they've actually been better. You know,

1130
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 5: they're averaging like almost one point seven expected goals when

1131
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 5: last season they won legon with like averaging almost like

1132
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 5: one point three. So for some reason like losing your

1133
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:24,719
Speaker 5: manager and your top goalkeeper, they've somehow their metrics have

1134
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,359
Speaker 5: gotten better. But they're somehow sitting in eleventh place as

1135
00:51:27,400 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 5: a post to last year. So maybe it's just a

1136
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 5: little bit of justice about how much they overperformed last year.

1137
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:33,719
Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean this, if you want to bet

1138
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 5: to draw, these two teams are just like, you know,

1139
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 5: the perfect H mixture for the draw cocktail.

1140
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:43,480
Speaker 4: Five three, real win incoming. After all that talk about

1141
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 4: the defenses and the draw, let's move on Group H.

1142
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 4: This one right now is top by Juventus with six points,

1143
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 4: Chelsea at three, sen at Saint Petersburg three, the Swedes

1144
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 4: Mamo at the foot of the table with zero. We'll

1145
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 4: start with the Chelsea Mamo kickoff. This is three pm

1146
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 4: on Wednesday. Prohibitive favorites minus eleven hundreds Malmo they're thirty

1147
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,360
Speaker 4: to one. You can get teams to win the Stanley

1148
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 4: Cup or the NBA Championship at the same odds and

1149
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 4: they would be considered long shot. Or you can bet

1150
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:15,280
Speaker 4: Malmo maybe they win one ninety minute game of soccer

1151
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 4: at thirty to one. The draw is ten to one.

1152
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 4: Before you guys go, I'm gonna say that I'm just

1153
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,800
Speaker 4: gonna have to bet this Malmo team, and it's basically

1154
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 4: just because, look, Chelsea's been not that good the past

1155
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 4: month and a half. Let's say in the Premier League.

1156
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 4: They've been getting very lucky with their goaltender Edward Mendy,

1157
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:40,560
Speaker 4: who's spectacular. He stole them three points against Brentford last season.

1158
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 4: I think we all want to bet against this Chelsea

1159
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 4: team because I think that the market perception is probably

1160
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:49,080
Speaker 4: too high in them. They are struggling to create and

1161
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,879
Speaker 4: to defend scoring chances at the moment. Unfortunately, the first

1162
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 4: two opportunities to fade Chelsea are Malmo at thirty to

1163
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 4: one and then we get Nord City in the Premier

1164
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 4: League next to this is coming weekend, So I'm just

1165
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 4: gonna bite the bullet and donate some money to a

1166
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 4: sports book on Mamo at thirty to one.

1167
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: BJ sounds like a good parlay to me. Malmo and

1168
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:12,359
Speaker 1: Norwich confessions. But no, Malmo's bad.

1169
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 5: I took them against Senate and it was not fun there.

1170
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 5: They just can't do anything offensively and they are just

1171
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 5: wide open when on counter attack like it is.

1172
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:26,120
Speaker 1: It is bad even if you saw them them played Juventus.

1173
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:28,359
Speaker 5: I mean there were so many times where Juventus had

1174
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 5: like two or three it was like almost like a

1175
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:33,280
Speaker 5: three on one, like four different times going forward an attack.

1176
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 5: So this one's just to stay away from me. We'll

1177
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,560
Speaker 5: just watch Chelsea continue to overperform and we'll find another

1178
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 5: spot to.

1179
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 1: Beat them.

1180
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:44,879
Speaker 5: But you know, for now, I mean, I m might

1181
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 5: just throw a dollar on Malmo Norwich parlay.

1182
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 4: You're patient, You're much more patient guy than I am.

1183
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:54,399
Speaker 4: But look, here's here's some defensive numbers for Chelsea. Right,

1184
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,279
Speaker 4: two point one six expected goals against against Brentford one

1185
00:53:57,320 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 4: point five. It gets Southampton a decent MS against you've

1186
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 4: bent this under an expectable point eight four and then

1187
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 4: one point seventy three against City. I think Mamo might

1188
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 4: be able.

1189
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 3: To score a goal here, Anthony, Yes, that's where we're

1190
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:13,600
Speaker 3: going plus two twenty five to score. I will be

1191
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:18,719
Speaker 3: betting it again this weekend. This Chelsea defense historically good,

1192
00:54:19,200 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 3: historically good and I I mean BJ and I played

1193
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:23,360
Speaker 3: a lot of unders last year on Chelsea and it

1194
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 3: was it was a profitable situation. But this year the regression.

1195
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 3: And look, people will tell me it's because their goalie

1196
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 3: is really good, or it's because you know, they always

1197
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 3: have numbers behind the ball, they don't concede high quality chances. Look,

1198
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,840
Speaker 3: all that is bunk. The history has shown that a

1199
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 3: team will run very, very close in the long term

1200
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 3: to their expected goals against numbers. Now four quality of

1201
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,919
Speaker 3: finishing can have marginal effects, you know, five to ten

1202
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:50,759
Speaker 3: percent in the long term, where a team will finish

1203
00:54:50,800 --> 00:54:52,840
Speaker 3: above their numbers or below their numbers if you have

1204
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 3: a bunch of really high quality finishers. But a defense

1205
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 3: does not do it. They don't. There's there's like two

1206
00:54:57,239 --> 00:54:58,840
Speaker 3: teams that you can make an argument for. One is

1207
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:00,759
Speaker 3: Atletico Madrid and they have and have the best goalie

1208
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 3: in the world and a system that prioritizes getting guys

1209
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 3: behind the ball and blocking a lot of shots. Other

1210
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 3: than that, there's not a lot of manager. Lucian Favre

1211
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:11,440
Speaker 3: is like a guy who's notoriously done that. But I

1212
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 3: don't believe Thomas Tookele has like found the magic sauce

1213
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 3: to like concede a bunch of chances and not actually

1214
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 3: concede a goal. And look, I know Mamo stinks going forward.

1215
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 3: They're the team I mentioned earlier with Sheriff, Like there

1216
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 3: are teams in this league who come into the Champions

1217
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:24,880
Speaker 3: League expecting like they're used to having the ball, and

1218
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 3: then when they don't have the ball, they stink. That's Malmo.

1219
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 3: I mean, they're really bad. But at plus two twenty

1220
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 3: five to get a goal, all you need is one fluke,

1221
00:55:31,120 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 3: one chance, one counter, one set piece at plus two

1222
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 3: twenty five for a team that is so due to

1223
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,839
Speaker 3: concede that I will probably break something if they don't

1224
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,279
Speaker 3: concede soon from the chances they've been allowing. Give me

1225
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:42,399
Speaker 3: plus two twenty five on Malmotos to score a goal.

1226
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 3: I want to get behind this Chelsea attack because they're

1227
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 3: very good, and I think they're due to start putting

1228
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 3: some numbers up and I think they're going to but

1229
00:55:49,600 --> 00:55:53,439
Speaker 3: I really need to fade this Chelsea defense with every

1230
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 3: bone in my body.

1231
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 4: It sounds like you guys are tucking yourself into a

1232
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:01,439
Speaker 4: piece of thirty to one on Mama is coming of course.

1233
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,320
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on Juventus plus one ten favorites

1234
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 4: against En at Saint Petersburg. The draw is plus two

1235
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 4: ten sen at plus two ninety three pm. This will

1236
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 4: be the last game we talk about because it's the

1237
00:56:11,280 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 4: last game of match week three. I've got nothing on

1238
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 4: this one. I might look at the draw, but probably

1239
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 4: stay away BJ.

1240
00:56:17,400 --> 00:56:19,240
Speaker 5: What about you, I want to make a case present

1241
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 5: it in this match. I mean, first off, they looked

1242
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 5: really good against Malmo.

1243
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 1: Like we already spoke spoke about four nothing went at home.

1244
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:28,040
Speaker 5: I'll created them two point eight one expected goals to

1245
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 5: point four to five. But secondly, they've been dominating the

1246
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:34,520
Speaker 5: Russian Premier League. They obviously they lost their last two

1247
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 5: matches to Sochi and Arsenal Tua, but expected goals is

1248
00:56:38,719 --> 00:56:41,160
Speaker 5: why we can't just take results at face value. Yeah,

1249
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 5: they lost those two matches, but they have created both

1250
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 5: of those teams five point two expected goals to one

1251
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 5: point seventy three, and in the Russian Premier League this

1252
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 5: season they're averaging two point one to one expected goals

1253
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 5: for nationally, allowing one point zero eight. Malcolm, the former

1254
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 5: Bordeaux and Barcelona attacking midfielder has a point seven to

1255
00:56:56,680 --> 00:57:00,359
Speaker 5: two expected goal plus expected assist per ninety rate in

1256
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 5: the Russian Premier League this season. It will be a

1257
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,840
Speaker 5: problem for Events back line. I mean, listen Vents' offensive

1258
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 5: numbers have not been as good since Chrisharonaldo left. They

1259
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:11,000
Speaker 5: averaged two non penalty expected goals per match last season.

1260
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 5: In this season it's down to one point seventy five

1261
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 5: and in Syria A they're eighth in shot creating actions,

1262
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 5: tenth and touches inside the opponent's penalty era and tenth

1263
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 5: in box entries. Now, as far as their defense is concerned,

1264
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 5: they've been okay, not great eight point eight non penalty

1265
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 5: expected goals allowed in eight matches, but they've allowed the

1266
00:57:28,680 --> 00:57:31,440
Speaker 5: third most touches in their own final third and they

1267
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 5: just lost the expected goals battle to Roma despite winning

1268
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,560
Speaker 5: one nothing on Sunday. And this is another weather situation.

1269
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 5: It's also going to be thirty eight degrees in raining

1270
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:42,600
Speaker 5: in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday night when it's in the

1271
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 5: mid sixties in Turin this week. So I have this

1272
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,680
Speaker 5: match projected closer to a pick them given you know,

1273
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 5: Events struggles offensively, So yeah, give me the senate plus

1274
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 5: half a goal at minus one twenty five.

1275
00:57:56,760 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 4: That sounds like a lovely, lovely bet. All right, let's

1276
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:02,840
Speaker 4: move on to the final section of the program. This

1277
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,439
Speaker 4: will be I'll give you each thirty seconds to talk

1278
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 4: about your best bet for match Week three of the

1279
00:58:08,320 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 4: Champions League.

1280
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:12,440
Speaker 3: Anthony Yugo First, Leipzig plus one and a half minus

1281
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 3: one thirty like it to minus one thirty five. The

1282
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:17,439
Speaker 3: thing with with PSG in this game is that they're

1283
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 3: incredibly overrated. They have looked very vulnerable in defensive transition.

1284
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 3: They're expected goals numbers in France are not what they

1285
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 3: should be given the talent on the team. They have

1286
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:28,360
Speaker 3: serious issues defending without the ball because of the lack

1287
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 3: of defensive work that mbap Neymar and Messi do. And

1288
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 3: Leipzig despite some pretty poor defensive numbers in the Bundesliga,

1289
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 3: the underlying numbers that are underlying those expected goals numbers

1290
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 3: are a little bit better than that. I expect them

1291
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 3: to turn the corner here, keep this match competitive. It's

1292
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,000
Speaker 3: a huge over adjustment to last year when these two

1293
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 3: teams played. The numbers should not be that much different.

1294
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:49,080
Speaker 3: I like Leipzig to keep this game closed within a

1295
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 3: goal and a half.

1296
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 5: Bej yeah, I'm gonna go with the squares play on

1297
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 5: the board, I asked dortmannd over three and a half.

1298
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 5: I mean I acts as an absolute offensive Juggernauts two

1299
00:58:57,520 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 5: point twenty six expected goals per match in the Era

1300
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 5: to Visa Dormand didn't look great against Sporting Lisbond only

1301
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 5: created point to three expected goals, but Earling Holland was out.

1302
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,800
Speaker 5: Earl Holland's going to be back for this match. Dortmann,

1303
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 5: averaging one point eighty four non penalty expected goals per

1304
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 5: match in the Bundesliga, already created sixteen big scoring chances.

1305
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:18,200
Speaker 5: But Dorman's defense does have some issues right now. You know,

1306
00:59:18,200 --> 00:59:21,480
Speaker 5: in their three biggest matches against Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Gladbach,

1307
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 5: they allowed a total of five point eighty two expected goals,

1308
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 5: and in total for the season they've allowed eleven big

1309
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 5: scoring chances. So this is going to be a very

1310
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 5: open game. There's going to be just chances galore at

1311
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:33,560
Speaker 5: both ends of the pitch. I have three point three

1312
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 5: three goals projected for this one, so I love three

1313
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:36,880
Speaker 5: and over three and a half.

1314
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:37,919
Speaker 1: Goals and plus one twenty five.

1315
00:59:38,440 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 4: Something people often forget about the squarest bet on the

1316
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 4: board is it's also the most fun. That one will

1317
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:45,800
Speaker 4: be a lot of fun. I'm gonna go with my

1318
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 4: Barcelona fate. I'm Dinamo Kiev at ten to one is

1319
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 4: my favorite bet because look, it's the first episode of

1320
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 4: Wonder Goal. Let's be a little bit bold with our

1321
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 4: predictions and with that, that'll do it for the show.

1322
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 4: My name is Michael liebof for BJ Cunningham and Anthony

1323
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 4: the Bundo week. Really appreciate you guys listening and please

1324
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 4: please remember to download, subscribe, review and rate Wonder Goal

1325
01:00:07,320 --> 01:00:10,080
Speaker 4: and we'll see you guys back on Thursday for our

1326
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:18,160
Speaker 4: Premier League Preview episode