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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Now, James
Speaker 2: Lord joins it, global Head of fx EM Strategy at
Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley. James, you got to rewrite to get the
Speaker 2: June thirtieth. You're going to do a midyear review. Where
Speaker 2: is the big figure play in four in exchange? If
Speaker 2: it's a blurb, if it's complex, there's macro this, macro that.
Speaker 2: Where is a place where I can actually speculate and
Speaker 2: make money on a currency pair?
Speaker 3: Hey, Tom, thanks very much for having me back on
Speaker 3: the show. I mean, our currency forecasts generally see a
Speaker 3: bit of dollar strength coming through, but probably the biggest
Speaker 3: movers that you would that you that were forecasting are
Speaker 3: things like being short Euro versus long commodity currencies and
Speaker 3: long risk currencies. I mean, the overall dollar environment that
Speaker 3: we're expecting to see is one of modest strength, but
Speaker 3: you kind of get a really split dollar where the
Speaker 3: dollars kind of outperforming versus some of the low yielders,
Speaker 3: so things like Swiss frank and European the euro, but
Speaker 3: really underperforming against some some of the risk currencies like
Speaker 3: Aussie dollar, South African rand, Turkish lira. I mean, these
Speaker 3: these kind of currencies are more risky ones, high yelders
Speaker 3: is where we expect to see the bigger moves.
Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, I know you were like, you know,
Speaker 2: you look at the vector of euro Chilean pace. Sure
Speaker 2: what you can do on the bloombern now e r Colp.
Speaker 2: I mean, James Lord has got a two on his
Speaker 2: left arm and the answer is you've had a nice
Speaker 2: move strong Chillon pace.
Speaker 4: So who didn't have that a beginning of the year.
Speaker 4: So let's James, let's just talk about the en that's
Speaker 4: been in the news.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 4: We're pushing up close to one fifty six year one
Speaker 4: fifty five spots seventy three. What's going on with the end?
Speaker 4: How do you think this is going to play out?
Speaker 4: What's the Bank of Japan going to be doing here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we think dolly n's really driven by
Speaker 3: US rates. I mean clearly, clearly what happens with the
Speaker 3: BOJ is important. But if you if you look at
Speaker 3: it sort of statistically, like most of the majority of
Speaker 3: the move in dolly N is explained by by how
Speaker 3: by how the dollar rates behave And it's yeah, partly
Speaker 3: just simply because of the fact that they're clearly much
Speaker 3: more volatile at such a higher level of yield, and
Speaker 3: we're forecasting US rates to come down. I mean, Matt
Speaker 3: hornback net Dinger and team have you US tenure back
Speaker 3: down at four point one percent at the end of
Speaker 3: the year on the back of three rate cuts from FED,
Speaker 3: and that should support a lower dollar en. So I mean,
Speaker 3: it's difficult to buy it just because of the negative carry,
Speaker 3: But we see dollar en going back down to around
Speaker 3: one forty by the end of the year, which is
Speaker 3: it's a little bit, a little bit more than what
Speaker 3: the forwards are suggesting, but it's not it's not really
Speaker 3: a great trade considering that the carry you have to pay.
Speaker 4: So given your your interest rate outlook for the US
Speaker 4: Federal Reserve, I mean, I just can't think of a
Speaker 4: dollar bare case. I haven't been able to think of
Speaker 4: one for a long time exactly. So I mean, does
Speaker 4: a dollar maybe drift a little bit lower just on
Speaker 4: this rate environment?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean so if you if you take our
Speaker 3: US rate forecast just all else being equal, then and
Speaker 3: then it should suggest that the dollar comes down, comes
Speaker 3: down a bit. But the problem of that is that
Speaker 3: when we look at the yield differentials of the dollar
Speaker 3: versus on to say, on a d X y basis,
Speaker 3: that we're expecting to see bund yields fall by even
Speaker 3: more than what we're expecting to see treasure yields fall.
Speaker 3: So you know, if the US inflation comes down, it
Speaker 3: gives the Fed a bit more space to then you're
Speaker 3: going to see markets pricing even bigger easing cycles from
Speaker 3: from the rest of the world. And you know, we
Speaker 3: think the ECB is part of that. So actually yield
Speaker 3: differentials will move we think in the dollar's favor. We
Speaker 3: still have US growth outperforming the rest of the world.
Speaker 3: US stocks doing very well, there's a lot to like
Speaker 3: about the US dollar.
Speaker 2: I mean, and your latest report. I mean, they've got
Speaker 2: enough people in this room now side it's like the
Speaker 2: sideline of the New York Giants. You know, it's like amazing.
Speaker 2: I mean, all of a sudden, you haven't talked to
Speaker 2: Amy Gower in like ten years. All of a sudden
Speaker 2: you're talking to one of your commodity strategies. What are
Speaker 2: people like Amy Gower telling you? How are they assisting
Speaker 2: you in speculation and investment forward at the commodity world?
Speaker 2: How do you bounce off that right now?
Speaker 3: James Lord, Yeah, well, Amy's been very bullish on copper.
Speaker 3: She's she's had a great call on that, and you
Speaker 3: know it's clearly it's clearly helping. You know, your reference
Speaker 3: to your chilly that would have been a great trade.
Speaker 3: We think that is still a great trade.
Speaker 1: I mean it's not.
Speaker 3: I would say prices are not feeding through completely into
Speaker 3: intercurrency markets these days, partly because this is a large
Speaker 3: part of this is a supply story. You've had my
Speaker 3: enclosure is a lot of difficulty getting copper out of
Speaker 3: the ground, and that's really boosted the price, but it
Speaker 3: doesn't have the same impact on metal on currencies that
Speaker 3: really depend on the revenue of that because the volumes
Speaker 3: are going down, and it's not necessarily an indicator of
Speaker 3: global growth if the price is going up because of
Speaker 3: supply reasons. So generally you see that across all commodities. Actually,
Speaker 3: if the price is if the price is changing of supply,
Speaker 3: it doesn't have the same impact on modity currencies as
Speaker 3: you would typically expect.
Speaker 2: But the es this is important. The heritage of Morgan
Speaker 2: Stanley and commodities goes back to Rushier Charman. Now at
Speaker 2: Rockefeller is Morgan Stanley saying there's a legit commodity cycle
Speaker 2: now or is a set of one offs that put
Speaker 2: orange juice to the moon.
Speaker 3: I mean we like metals. I mean copper and other
Speaker 3: industrial metals are part of it. Gold prices as well.
Speaker 3: I mean we do see some more upside in those names.
Speaker 3: Not a ton in in energy and oil, but I
Speaker 3: mean I think it's more interesting to look at it
Speaker 3: on the metal space, given given the energy transition and
Speaker 3: and and and and some some of the supply constraints
Speaker 3: that you're seeing there, and some of some of that
Speaker 3: feeds through into gold in terms of how how the
Speaker 3: fiscal is evolving in the US. It's always concerns about that.
Speaker 3: And if if the dollar goes down then tip then
Speaker 3: typically you would see some some gold price. If US
Speaker 3: rates come down, then typically you would see gold prices
Speaker 3: being supported. So I wouldn't say it's like across the
Speaker 3: board in commodities, but yeah, a little bit more selective
Speaker 3: and biased towards.
Speaker 5: Metals, James.
Speaker 4: In the emerging markets here. We just had Damian sasaar
Speaker 4: On from Bloomberg Intelligence giving us his thoughts here. Yeah,
Speaker 4: where do you see the opportunities here, James, We're I mean,
Speaker 4: there's just so much, so many cross currents here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we we we like we like Turkish lera, right,
Speaker 3: I mean in this time zone, we we think we
Speaker 3: think Turkeyshilerea is is a good story. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: it's difficult to having been through many cycles of the
Speaker 3: Turkish leyer over the past ten years, no cycles are
Speaker 3: typically being bearished. It's quite hard to sort of push
Speaker 3: along Turkish layer review with a lot of conviction. But
Speaker 3: we do see that, you know, we do believe that
Speaker 3: the changes that are ongoing in that country in terms
Speaker 3: of policy are going to be sustained for for some time,
Speaker 3: so we think Turkish leaber will outperform the forwards. You
Speaker 3: can pick up some carry. We think that's an improving story.
Speaker 2: We've got to leave it just because of the time.
Speaker 2: James Lord, thank you so much greatly. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2: With Morgan Stanley this morning driving all of their foreign exchange,
Speaker 2: I've really been anticipating this conversation. Joining us out from
Speaker 2: Wells Fargo with a really really bright William and Mary
Speaker 2: take on asset allocation strategies. Tracy McMillian, she could join us.
Speaker 2: Good morning, Winston Salem, North Carolina.
Speaker 6: Writing town.
Speaker 2: Tracy. You know, I look at your research note and
Speaker 2: it's just completely dead on about almost the numbness I
Speaker 2: felt this weekend about this great bull market color the
Speaker 2: exuberance for a stock market that you see at Wells Fargo.
Speaker 6: Yes, thanks for having me on this morning, Tom. I agree.
Speaker 6: We've seen a lot of exuberance in the market since
Speaker 6: last October, and a lot of that has been fueled
Speaker 6: by better earnings. We saw an earnings recession turn to
Speaker 6: in earnings recovery, and so that's fueled some of that exuberants.
Speaker 6: But there's also just a lot of momentum in this
Speaker 6: market right now, and that also is fueling turn that
Speaker 6: we're seeing.
Speaker 2: I mean, what's really important to me is like the
Speaker 2: cab driver taken the tour, but they get off the
Speaker 2: plane and when you know, they get off the plane, Paul,
Speaker 2: they've got to go to Wake Forest. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 2: is the cab driver or the uber driver in your burg?
Speaker 2: Are they talking about the stock market?
Speaker 6: Probably so, and that's very reminiscent of the late nineteen nineties,
Speaker 6: isn't it.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 6: The difference though, is that this time we are seeing
Speaker 6: these rises in the market supported by higher earnings and
Speaker 6: a lot of a lot of policy has contributed to
Speaker 6: these higher stock market prices this time. So there's some
Speaker 6: fundamental justification behind some of the rises that we've seen. However,
Speaker 6: there are pockets of the market that are probably getting
Speaker 6: a little overpriced. You know, communication services has done really
Speaker 6: well this year, information technology has done really well. Those
Speaker 6: are areas where we'd be trimming and putting that pat
Speaker 6: into short term fixed income and just waiting for a.
Speaker 2: Better operation, for that big correction to come in, Paul.
Speaker 2: Just to be clear, wells Fargo's got to publish twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five of SPX fifty seven hundred. These are not
Speaker 2: they're in the game. Wells Fargo is saying you got
Speaker 2: to participate.
Speaker 4: So, Tracy, if we do want to go into some
Speaker 4: fixed income lock and some yield here, do I stick
Speaker 4: with the treasury market and I get a four point
Speaker 4: eight percent for a two year treasury? Or do I
Speaker 4: maybe take some credit risk? How are you guys thinking
Speaker 4: about that?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so we're saying that in the shorter term or
Speaker 6: that or that cash, we would be holding short term
Speaker 6: fixed income, and the treasury market's a good place to
Speaker 6: do that with very little interest rate or very low
Speaker 6: credit risk, very little interest rate risk as well.
Speaker 2: And then we.
Speaker 6: Would supplement that with high grade corporate credit, and we
Speaker 6: would be more concerned about investing in high yield fixed
Speaker 6: income at this point, especially since spreads have come in
Speaker 6: so much. We just don't see the risk reward value
Speaker 6: there that we do in corporate credits that are our
Speaker 6: higher quality.
Speaker 4: So, Tracy, back to the equity side here, I see
Speaker 4: a lot of spending coming out of Washington, DC, for
Speaker 4: better or worse in the Investment Reduction Act and so
Speaker 4: on and so forth. The CHIPS Act does that does
Speaker 4: that translate into maybe how I should invest it. I
Speaker 4: look at some of the industries that might do well there,
Speaker 4: and so how are you guys thinking about it?
Speaker 1: Sure?
Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, we're looking at corporation, our corporations sectors that
Speaker 6: would benefit from both the Chips Act and from the
Speaker 6: Infrastructure Act. So we like companies that are in the
Speaker 6: material space, the industrial space, energy space, and we also
Speaker 6: like healthcare. Not as much of a beneficiary of those
Speaker 6: apps as the others, but also an area of the
Speaker 6: market where we see some value.
Speaker 2: What does Jay Brison say then about international I mean,
Speaker 2: bring it over to asset allocation. I've known wells far
Speaker 2: going to be hugely US centric. Has that changed?
Speaker 6: That really has not changed. We still have a longer
Speaker 6: term overweight to US relative to the global market capitalization,
Speaker 6: and right now we also have a shorter term were
Speaker 6: tactical positioning where we're overweight US as well. And again
Speaker 6: that's that quality theme upon quality US large caps over
Speaker 6: small caps and develop markets over emerging markets.
Speaker 2: One final question, I mean, if we go out one year,
Speaker 2: you're going to stagger into May June of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm saying that does sixty forty work
Speaker 2: Tracy mcmillion, Yes.
Speaker 6: Sixty forty works out a year. In fact, we do
Speaker 6: see higher equity markets, as you pointed out in twenty
Speaker 6: twenty five, and we also think that if these higher rates,
Speaker 6: bonds are offering very attractive opportunities for investors. So we
Speaker 6: do see sixty forty working for relations starting to be
Speaker 6: less positive than they've been over the past couple of years,
Speaker 6: and that will have a diversification impact as well.
Speaker 2: Tracy McMillian, thank you so much. With well spargo George Saravellas,
Speaker 2: he's Deutsche Bank writing brilliant, brilliant notes. I just can't
Speaker 2: say enough about what he writes on foreign exchange as well,
Speaker 2: and we're going to bring in George Sarah Wilson. We'll
Speaker 2: we'll do the Bloomberg Business Flash after that. George, I
Speaker 2: look at the theme into the Summer and to me,
Speaker 2: it's a jumble. What is your coherent theme into the summer?
Speaker 5: Good to hear your voice, Tom, good morning. So our
Speaker 5: theme is low vall. Persisting in an environment of low
Speaker 5: volatility carry tends to do quite well, so in effects
Speaker 5: you should see more of the same. But I think
Speaker 5: a crucial point is the dollar is a high yielding currency,
Speaker 5: and if you think about the start of the year,
Speaker 5: so many people made the argument that if equities go up,
Speaker 5: the dollar should weaken, and the dollar strong despite equities
Speaker 5: at record highs, and that's because it's part of the
Speaker 5: carry trade. So we're positive on the dollar and we're
Speaker 5: positive on carry as well.
Speaker 2: Are the correlations in place across equities, bounds, currencies and
Speaker 2: commodities in the moon shot and commodities so much? Are
Speaker 2: those correlations normal right now into the summer? George saravellis.
Speaker 1: Well, I would say that' very different from last year.
Speaker 5: And this is something we've been writing about for a
Speaker 5: while because if you look at the last few years,
Speaker 5: the world was dominated by this negative supply shop, so
Speaker 5: you had low growth, high inflation. That was bad for
Speaker 5: equities and it was bad for bonds as well. But
Speaker 5: now we're in a more normal world, so to speak,
Speaker 5: and it's all about demand. Do you have demand holding
Speaker 5: in and therefore you can have yields still high, which
Speaker 5: you do, but equity strong as well because the demand
Speaker 5: side of the economy is proving very resilient to these
Speaker 5: high levels of central bank rates. So I would say
Speaker 5: the correlation has gone back to being a bit more
Speaker 5: normal after being a lot more abnormal over the last
Speaker 5: few years.
Speaker 4: So George, give us your thoughts, your perspective here with
Speaker 4: a little bit of hindsight, what's happening with the Japanese end,
Speaker 4: what has happened over the last several weeks, and kind
Speaker 4: of what's your view here.
Speaker 5: It's probably the most interesting currency in develop markets at
Speaker 5: the moment. I think what's happening is simple that the
Speaker 5: Bank of Japan is just too slow. It's very duvish,
Speaker 5: which means if you look at real rates in Japan
Speaker 5: their minus two percent. So everyone else, even the Swiss,
Speaker 5: have positive rates with a one handle or above, and
Speaker 5: Japan still stands out. So even though policy is normalizing,
Speaker 5: it's normalizing from such a low base that it doesn't
Speaker 5: do anything to materially erode that carry disadvantage which the
Speaker 5: yen has.
Speaker 1: So we think as long as the Bank of Japan
Speaker 1: goes very slow, which they are, the yen will stay weak.
Speaker 5: And they're going slow because they still don't believe inflation
Speaker 5: is at two.
Speaker 4: Percent, right exactly. So if we think about the US dollar,
Speaker 4: then in that context, I mean, is there any reason
Speaker 4: to think this dollar will not remain strong here versus
Speaker 4: pretty much everything else else out there.
Speaker 5: Well, I think there are two ways you can get
Speaker 5: a week dollar. The one is if you believe in
Speaker 5: a US recession and therefore a sharp fed cutting cycle,
Speaker 5: which many people did six months ago. But we have
Speaker 5: believed in that scenario for a while. So from my perspective,
Speaker 5: even if you get effect cutting cycle, it's not going
Speaker 5: to be steeped.
Speaker 1: The dollar is still going to be a high yielder.
Speaker 5: So that's one scenario to get a week dollar. The
Speaker 5: other one is if you get a week dollar policy
Speaker 5: after the US election.
Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is not.
Speaker 5: Just statements on the dollar, but outright policy to restrict capital.
Speaker 1: Inflows for example foreigners.
Speaker 5: We don't think that's going to happen either, instead of
Speaker 5: think we're going to get restrictive trade policy.
Speaker 1: So we're in the dollar stronger for longer.
Speaker 2: Camp George, fold your expertise on foreign exchange into gold
Speaker 2: to the moon, and I'm going to state it is
Speaker 2: a basic idea at the margins central banks are buying gold.
Speaker 2: If they're buying gold, are they owning less dollars? Give
Speaker 2: us a paragraph on that.
Speaker 5: So many people, I think, look at the relationship between
Speaker 5: gold and the dollar and say, well, gold is going
Speaker 5: up because there's flight from the dollar. People are worried
Speaker 5: about US fiscal sustainability, and therefore we should more generally.
Speaker 1: Be worried about the dollar. I don't think that's the
Speaker 1: case at all. If you look at what's going on this.
Speaker 5: Year, there's two things that are doing very well, gold
Speaker 5: and the dollar at the same time. So there's someone
Speaker 5: in the market there that likes both the dollar and gold,
Speaker 5: and I would argue this is the outcome of essentially
Speaker 5: decoupling in deglobalization, where if you look at China, for example,
Speaker 5: this is very public data. You have accumulation of gold
Speaker 5: reserves on the official sector side, but on the private
Speaker 5: sector side, the private sector wants to go into dollars,
Speaker 5: so you have capital flight from China away from the
Speaker 5: local currency, which is why the UN is so weak,
Speaker 5: and it's going both dollars and gold at the same time.
Speaker 2: What's your euro call, please? I mean, we've got some
Speaker 2: people talking you're a weakness to parody. Where are you
Speaker 2: on that?
Speaker 5: So we have the URO effectively doing a range that's
Speaker 5: quite similar to last year.
Speaker 1: So if you think about.
Speaker 5: Last year it was around one of five to one thirteen.
Speaker 5: I'd say the risks to that range the biased lower,
Speaker 5: but basically one to one ten for me is a
Speaker 5: range that's quite realistic for this year.
Speaker 4: All right, Tom and I are thinking about coming over
Speaker 4: to London. We've got the suite book at the NED here.
Speaker 4: How concerned should we be about this? The British pound here?
Speaker 4: What's you call there?
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be that concerned.
Speaker 5: The pound tends to follow the dollar in general, so
Speaker 5: if the dollars from against the euro, it's very likely
Speaker 5: it stays cheap against it stays expensive against the.
Speaker 1: Pound as well.
Speaker 5: You have to, though, think about one thing, which is
Speaker 5: the UK election coming up. It shouldn't lead to any
Speaker 5: major change in policy unless you get a tail supprise outcome,
Speaker 5: and I stress this is a tail outcome of potentially
Speaker 5: the second party, because everyone expects Labor to be the first.
Speaker 5: If the second party that wins is the Liberal Democrats
Speaker 5: as opposed to the concern relatives again distant but not
Speaker 5: a non zero probability, then you could have the market
Speaker 5: thinking of a much more pro European stance that could
Speaker 5: help the pound. So it's a tail scenario, but it's
Speaker 5: the first time where it's imported to tail rather than
Speaker 5: a negative one.
Speaker 2: Georg Serave Ellos, thank you so much. With Deuigia bank
Speaker 2: here you j look at the front pages. She was
Speaker 2: looking at him through halftime at the NIXT yesterday. Lisa
Speaker 2: matayl what do you have?
Speaker 7: All right, we're starting with the sports kind of center
Speaker 7: thing since we were talking about the next one. Not okay,
Speaker 7: Axios is actually reporting Amazon nearing a deal that would
Speaker 7: make its streaming service Prime one of the partners of
Speaker 7: the NBA, one of three partners of the NBA. So
Speaker 7: it's going to add a misk of regular season playoff games, Suprime.
Speaker 7: I mean Amazon has been pushing though this streaming. You know,
Speaker 7: the NFL's Thursday Night Football. They extended a deal with
Speaker 7: the WNBA for two more seasons. NASCAR is coming.
Speaker 2: To I'm so glad you brought this up because Paul
Speaker 2: I thought of you this weekend. It's not going to
Speaker 2: be like a gradual thing. The streamers are just going.
Speaker 4: To say now when when these deals come up for renewal, Tom,
Speaker 4: I think the expectation is on all sides that these
Speaker 4: big tech companies to streamers will be there Thursday night.
Speaker 4: Yankee games for the past couple of seasons have been
Speaker 4: on there, and you know the old Yankee fans up
Speaker 4: in the Bronx, they're calling up sports talk radio saying,
Speaker 4: how do I get the game tonight?
Speaker 5: Yes?
Speaker 2: I mean, and also I believe I may have this wrong,
Speaker 2: but Netflix Christmas Day football seventy five million I think
Speaker 2: per game.
Speaker 4: I think.
Speaker 2: So that's almost more than Taylor Swift Banks exactly.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's because that's where that's where the viewership is going.
Speaker 4: The court cutting and all that. You don't get the
Speaker 4: bang for your buck with your broadcasting cable networks.
Speaker 7: Next crazy, So Jeff bass is Blue Argent flight over
Speaker 7: the weekend flew. But you know you always get those
Speaker 7: like side stories out from each flight. So this one
Speaker 7: I thought was interesting off of it went off Sunday
Speaker 7: Ed Dwight. He was America's first bla black astronaut candidate.
Speaker 7: On Sunday he finally rocketed into space. Sixty years later,
Speaker 7: the age of ninety. He was on that flight. So
Speaker 7: the backstory is he was an Air Force pilot when
Speaker 7: President John F. Kennedy kind of pushed him to be
Speaker 7: a candidate for NASA's early Astronaut Corps, but he wasn't
Speaker 7: picked for that nineteen sixty three class. NASA actually didn't
Speaker 7: select black astronauts until nineteen seventy eight. So he went
Speaker 7: on this flight. He called it a life changing experience.
Speaker 7: Now he is actually a record holder the oldest person
Speaker 7: in space by two months from William Chattner, Wieve Shatner,
Speaker 7: Captain Kirky. He is two months older than William Shatner
Speaker 7: when he went back in twenty twenty one. So I
Speaker 7: love those like side stories from the launches that he that, Yeah,
Speaker 7: very very interesting.
Speaker 1: I like that one.
Speaker 7: Sure, people working from home, so they're starting to take
Speaker 7: advantage of shopping online. You know, the boss isn't looking
Speaker 7: over your shoulder. You can kind of get a couple
Speaker 7: things done. So the research says the pandemic, you know,
Speaker 7: sparked the rise in online shopping, but it's continued. Last year,
Speaker 7: we spent three hundred and seventy five billion dollars more
Speaker 7: than we would have otherwise. So how do they know
Speaker 7: it's coming from hybrid workers, Well, they said areas where
Speaker 7: work from home jobs are more popular. That's where the
Speaker 7: shopping went up, and then areas where people are kind
Speaker 7: of back going to the office. That's where the levels
Speaker 7: were down.
Speaker 4: People going back to the office. Where are these errands?
Speaker 2: Nick Bloom? Somebody had Oh, Diane Swank had this one
Speaker 2: this weekend. She does great work. Diane Swank follow her
Speaker 2: on LinkedIn and Twitter had Nick Bloom of Stanford, which
Speaker 2: says traditional firms they're coming back in the newer formation.
Speaker 2: Firms are embedded with work from home. Okay, that was
Speaker 2: the basic thrust to what Diane Swank. Yep, it was
Speaker 2: alluding to. I have careful, I have to be careful.
Speaker 2: What we are is I have the surveillance cork in
Speaker 2: my mouth because I'm very opinionated on this and nobody
Speaker 2: wants to hear it. But so we're working from home
Speaker 2: ordering on Amazon.
Speaker 4: Yes, that's the thing.
Speaker 7: And that's the thing. There's the people who work from home.
Speaker 7: They spoke to the Wall Street Journal. They're saying that
Speaker 7: they do it because they're not in the people in
Speaker 7: the office get the coffee break, they get to chitty
Speaker 7: chat with other people. They don't have that, so this
Speaker 7: is their relief.
Speaker 2: On the chat. This is critical. The chitty chat is
Speaker 2: part of the fabric culture of corporate interplay. I would say,
Speaker 2: can you get to the marginal, great idea or even
Speaker 2: good idea without the chitty chat? I don't think you can.
Speaker 2: Let's do zoom with our institutional salesforce. No get Jamie
Speaker 2: Diamond said this in the annual letter Get on the
Speaker 2: plane and go yep.
Speaker 4: I don't you know I've thrown into towel. You know, Well,
Speaker 4: so let the new generation do their things on.
Speaker 2: Live chat on this, get out on YouTube and tell
Speaker 2: us what you think from work from home. The middle
Speaker 2: child has told me it's a complete scam. She's lined
Speaker 2: up and you know the people are working from nine
Speaker 2: to eleven forty two, and that they do. They do
Speaker 2: like six hours of work in an hour and a half.
Speaker 2: No one's policing them, right, I mean, that's just what
Speaker 2: the middle child says. You're gonna save us here. You
Speaker 2: got something next before I get the hook?
Speaker 7: Last one, No, last one?
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 7: So you've seen them, like the different flavor combinations like
Speaker 7: Peeps flavored Pepsi and pink lemonade flavored kit Cats, like
Speaker 7: all these wild off the wall things. Well, yes, their
Speaker 7: social media sense, but experts are saying there is a
Speaker 7: little more thinking behind it. So the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 7: spoke with food companies marketers. They said that the taste
Speaker 7: palette of the consumer is changing. You know, they want more,
Speaker 7: They want a little bit of sour and sweet. Our
Speaker 7: patch kids, Oreos, patch Kids, Oreos. I'm telling you, they
Speaker 7: want the best of both in one. Gen Z is
Speaker 7: also fueling that because they're a little bit more adventurous.
Speaker 7: They're on social media looking at these new flavor trends.
Speaker 7: But they're saying it helps the brands, right, So it
Speaker 7: helps bring in new customers and helps Joe that they're
Speaker 7: fun and edgy. But it also helps nudge buyers to
Speaker 7: buy the original and the new flavor so they can
Speaker 7: test out which both. So now the customer is buying more.
Speaker 7: They're buying the original and the fancy new flavor.
Speaker 4: Oddball parents aren't entirely new in the food and beverage industry.
Speaker 4: Hubba Bubba released a bubble gum flavored soda in the
Speaker 4: late nineteen eighties.
Speaker 1: For example, I just.
Speaker 2: Just why I talked to Mandolies this week and they
Speaker 2: called me up. They said, thanks for the efforts on
Speaker 2: Tang zero. There's Tang and there's tang zero. There's no
Speaker 2: hubba bubba hubble bubba tangs.
Speaker 4: This is just on the margin at the end of
Speaker 4: the consumer staples grow with you know, GDP. I don't
Speaker 4: care how you package it.
Speaker 2: How you doing. There's solid double digital.
Speaker 1: But I do like that.
Speaker 4: I do like the smaller serving sodas like that. Yeah,
Speaker 4: because I can't. I'm not into the twelve hours anymore.
Speaker 4: So that thing works out perfectly for me. So whoever
Speaker 4: was thinking of that, good job, Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much the newspapers. This is the Bloomberg
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