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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Now, James

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Speaker 2: Lord joins it, global Head of fx EM Strategy at

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Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley. James, you got to rewrite to get the

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Speaker 2: June thirtieth. You're going to do a midyear review. Where

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Speaker 2: is the big figure play in four in exchange? If

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Speaker 2: it's a blurb, if it's complex, there's macro this, macro that.

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Speaker 2: Where is a place where I can actually speculate and

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Speaker 2: make money on a currency pair?

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Speaker 3: Hey, Tom, thanks very much for having me back on

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Speaker 3: the show. I mean, our currency forecasts generally see a

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Speaker 3: bit of dollar strength coming through, but probably the biggest

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Speaker 3: movers that you would that you that were forecasting are

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Speaker 3: things like being short Euro versus long commodity currencies and

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Speaker 3: long risk currencies. I mean, the overall dollar environment that

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Speaker 3: we're expecting to see is one of modest strength, but

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Speaker 3: you kind of get a really split dollar where the

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Speaker 3: dollars kind of outperforming versus some of the low yielders,

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Speaker 3: so things like Swiss frank and European the euro, but

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Speaker 3: really underperforming against some some of the risk currencies like

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Speaker 3: Aussie dollar, South African rand, Turkish lira. I mean, these

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Speaker 3: these kind of currencies are more risky ones, high yelders

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Speaker 3: is where we expect to see the bigger moves.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, I know you were like, you know,

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Speaker 2: you look at the vector of euro Chilean pace. Sure

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Speaker 2: what you can do on the bloombern now e r Colp.

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Speaker 2: I mean, James Lord has got a two on his

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Speaker 2: left arm and the answer is you've had a nice

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Speaker 2: move strong Chillon pace.

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Speaker 4: So who didn't have that a beginning of the year.

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Speaker 4: So let's James, let's just talk about the en that's

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Speaker 4: been in the news.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 4: We're pushing up close to one fifty six year one

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Speaker 4: fifty five spots seventy three. What's going on with the end?

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Speaker 4: How do you think this is going to play out?

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Speaker 4: What's the Bank of Japan going to be doing here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we think dolly n's really driven by

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Speaker 3: US rates. I mean clearly, clearly what happens with the

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Speaker 3: BOJ is important. But if you if you look at

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Speaker 3: it sort of statistically, like most of the majority of

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Speaker 3: the move in dolly N is explained by by how

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Speaker 3: by how the dollar rates behave And it's yeah, partly

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Speaker 3: just simply because of the fact that they're clearly much

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Speaker 3: more volatile at such a higher level of yield, and

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Speaker 3: we're forecasting US rates to come down. I mean, Matt

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Speaker 3: hornback net Dinger and team have you US tenure back

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Speaker 3: down at four point one percent at the end of

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Speaker 3: the year on the back of three rate cuts from FED,

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Speaker 3: and that should support a lower dollar en. So I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's difficult to buy it just because of the negative carry,

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Speaker 3: But we see dollar en going back down to around

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Speaker 3: one forty by the end of the year, which is

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Speaker 3: it's a little bit, a little bit more than what

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Speaker 3: the forwards are suggesting, but it's not it's not really

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Speaker 3: a great trade considering that the carry you have to pay.

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Speaker 4: So given your your interest rate outlook for the US

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Speaker 4: Federal Reserve, I mean, I just can't think of a

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Speaker 4: dollar bare case. I haven't been able to think of

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Speaker 4: one for a long time exactly. So I mean, does

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Speaker 4: a dollar maybe drift a little bit lower just on

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Speaker 4: this rate environment?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean so if you if you take our

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Speaker 3: US rate forecast just all else being equal, then and

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Speaker 3: then it should suggest that the dollar comes down, comes

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Speaker 3: down a bit. But the problem of that is that

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Speaker 3: when we look at the yield differentials of the dollar

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Speaker 3: versus on to say, on a d X y basis,

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Speaker 3: that we're expecting to see bund yields fall by even

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Speaker 3: more than what we're expecting to see treasure yields fall.

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Speaker 3: So you know, if the US inflation comes down, it

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Speaker 3: gives the Fed a bit more space to then you're

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Speaker 3: going to see markets pricing even bigger easing cycles from

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Speaker 3: from the rest of the world. And you know, we

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Speaker 3: think the ECB is part of that. So actually yield

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Speaker 3: differentials will move we think in the dollar's favor. We

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Speaker 3: still have US growth outperforming the rest of the world.

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Speaker 3: US stocks doing very well, there's a lot to like

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Speaker 3: about the US dollar.

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Speaker 2: I mean, and your latest report. I mean, they've got

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Speaker 2: enough people in this room now side it's like the

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Speaker 2: sideline of the New York Giants. You know, it's like amazing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, all of a sudden, you haven't talked to

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Speaker 2: Amy Gower in like ten years. All of a sudden

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Speaker 2: you're talking to one of your commodity strategies. What are

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Speaker 2: people like Amy Gower telling you? How are they assisting

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Speaker 2: you in speculation and investment forward at the commodity world?

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Speaker 2: How do you bounce off that right now?

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Speaker 3: James Lord, Yeah, well, Amy's been very bullish on copper.

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Speaker 3: She's she's had a great call on that, and you

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Speaker 3: know it's clearly it's clearly helping. You know, your reference

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Speaker 3: to your chilly that would have been a great trade.

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Speaker 3: We think that is still a great trade.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's not.

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Speaker 3: I would say prices are not feeding through completely into

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Speaker 3: intercurrency markets these days, partly because this is a large

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Speaker 3: part of this is a supply story. You've had my

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Speaker 3: enclosure is a lot of difficulty getting copper out of

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Speaker 3: the ground, and that's really boosted the price, but it

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Speaker 3: doesn't have the same impact on metal on currencies that

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Speaker 3: really depend on the revenue of that because the volumes

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Speaker 3: are going down, and it's not necessarily an indicator of

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Speaker 3: global growth if the price is going up because of

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Speaker 3: supply reasons. So generally you see that across all commodities. Actually,

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Speaker 3: if the price is if the price is changing of supply,

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Speaker 3: it doesn't have the same impact on modity currencies as

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Speaker 3: you would typically expect.

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Speaker 2: But the es this is important. The heritage of Morgan

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Speaker 2: Stanley and commodities goes back to Rushier Charman. Now at

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Speaker 2: Rockefeller is Morgan Stanley saying there's a legit commodity cycle

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Speaker 2: now or is a set of one offs that put

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Speaker 2: orange juice to the moon.

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Speaker 3: I mean we like metals. I mean copper and other

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Speaker 3: industrial metals are part of it. Gold prices as well.

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Speaker 3: I mean we do see some more upside in those names.

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Speaker 3: Not a ton in in energy and oil, but I

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Speaker 3: mean I think it's more interesting to look at it

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Speaker 3: on the metal space, given given the energy transition and

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Speaker 3: and and and and some some of the supply constraints

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Speaker 3: that you're seeing there, and some of some of that

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Speaker 3: feeds through into gold in terms of how how the

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Speaker 3: fiscal is evolving in the US. It's always concerns about that.

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Speaker 3: And if if the dollar goes down then tip then

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Speaker 3: typically you would see some some gold price. If US

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Speaker 3: rates come down, then typically you would see gold prices

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Speaker 3: being supported. So I wouldn't say it's like across the

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Speaker 3: board in commodities, but yeah, a little bit more selective

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Speaker 3: and biased towards.

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Speaker 5: Metals, James.

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Speaker 4: In the emerging markets here. We just had Damian sasaar

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Speaker 4: On from Bloomberg Intelligence giving us his thoughts here. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: where do you see the opportunities here, James, We're I mean,

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Speaker 4: there's just so much, so many cross currents here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we we we like we like Turkish lera, right,

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Speaker 3: I mean in this time zone, we we think we

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Speaker 3: think Turkeyshilerea is is a good story. I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: it's difficult to having been through many cycles of the

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Speaker 3: Turkish leyer over the past ten years, no cycles are

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Speaker 3: typically being bearished. It's quite hard to sort of push

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Speaker 3: along Turkish layer review with a lot of conviction. But

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Speaker 3: we do see that, you know, we do believe that

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Speaker 3: the changes that are ongoing in that country in terms

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Speaker 3: of policy are going to be sustained for for some time,

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Speaker 3: so we think Turkish leaber will outperform the forwards. You

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Speaker 3: can pick up some carry. We think that's an improving story.

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Speaker 2: We've got to leave it just because of the time.

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Speaker 2: James Lord, thank you so much greatly. I appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: With Morgan Stanley this morning driving all of their foreign exchange,

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Speaker 2: I've really been anticipating this conversation. Joining us out from

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Speaker 2: Wells Fargo with a really really bright William and Mary

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Speaker 2: take on asset allocation strategies. Tracy McMillian, she could join us.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Winston Salem, North Carolina.

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Speaker 6: Writing town.

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Speaker 2: Tracy. You know, I look at your research note and

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Speaker 2: it's just completely dead on about almost the numbness I

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Speaker 2: felt this weekend about this great bull market color the

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Speaker 2: exuberance for a stock market that you see at Wells Fargo.

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Speaker 6: Yes, thanks for having me on this morning, Tom. I agree.

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Speaker 6: We've seen a lot of exuberance in the market since

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Speaker 6: last October, and a lot of that has been fueled

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Speaker 6: by better earnings. We saw an earnings recession turn to

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Speaker 6: in earnings recovery, and so that's fueled some of that exuberants.

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Speaker 6: But there's also just a lot of momentum in this

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Speaker 6: market right now, and that also is fueling turn that

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Speaker 6: we're seeing.

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Speaker 2: I mean, what's really important to me is like the

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Speaker 2: cab driver taken the tour, but they get off the

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Speaker 2: plane and when you know, they get off the plane, Paul,

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Speaker 2: they've got to go to Wake Forest. Yeah, you know,

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Speaker 2: is the cab driver or the uber driver in your burg?

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Speaker 2: Are they talking about the stock market?

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Speaker 6: Probably so, and that's very reminiscent of the late nineteen nineties,

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Speaker 6: isn't it.

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Speaker 2: So.

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Speaker 6: The difference though, is that this time we are seeing

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Speaker 6: these rises in the market supported by higher earnings and

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Speaker 6: a lot of a lot of policy has contributed to

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Speaker 6: these higher stock market prices this time. So there's some

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Speaker 6: fundamental justification behind some of the rises that we've seen. However,

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Speaker 6: there are pockets of the market that are probably getting

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Speaker 6: a little overpriced. You know, communication services has done really

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Speaker 6: well this year, information technology has done really well. Those

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Speaker 6: are areas where we'd be trimming and putting that pat

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Speaker 6: into short term fixed income and just waiting for a.

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Speaker 2: Better operation, for that big correction to come in, Paul.

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Speaker 2: Just to be clear, wells Fargo's got to publish twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five of SPX fifty seven hundred. These are not

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Speaker 2: they're in the game. Wells Fargo is saying you got

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Speaker 2: to participate.

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Speaker 4: So, Tracy, if we do want to go into some

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Speaker 4: fixed income lock and some yield here, do I stick

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Speaker 4: with the treasury market and I get a four point

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Speaker 4: eight percent for a two year treasury? Or do I

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Speaker 4: maybe take some credit risk? How are you guys thinking

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Speaker 4: about that?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so we're saying that in the shorter term or

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Speaker 6: that or that cash, we would be holding short term

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Speaker 6: fixed income, and the treasury market's a good place to

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Speaker 6: do that with very little interest rate or very low

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Speaker 6: credit risk, very little interest rate risk as well.

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Speaker 2: And then we.

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Speaker 6: Would supplement that with high grade corporate credit, and we

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Speaker 6: would be more concerned about investing in high yield fixed

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Speaker 6: income at this point, especially since spreads have come in

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Speaker 6: so much. We just don't see the risk reward value

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Speaker 6: there that we do in corporate credits that are our

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Speaker 6: higher quality.

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Speaker 4: So, Tracy, back to the equity side here, I see

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Speaker 4: a lot of spending coming out of Washington, DC, for

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Speaker 4: better or worse in the Investment Reduction Act and so

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Speaker 4: on and so forth. The CHIPS Act does that does

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Speaker 4: that translate into maybe how I should invest it. I

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Speaker 4: look at some of the industries that might do well there,

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Speaker 4: and so how are you guys thinking about it?

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Speaker 1: Sure?

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Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, we're looking at corporation, our corporations sectors that

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Speaker 6: would benefit from both the Chips Act and from the

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Speaker 6: Infrastructure Act. So we like companies that are in the

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Speaker 6: material space, the industrial space, energy space, and we also

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Speaker 6: like healthcare. Not as much of a beneficiary of those

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Speaker 6: apps as the others, but also an area of the

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Speaker 6: market where we see some value.

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Speaker 2: What does Jay Brison say then about international I mean,

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Speaker 2: bring it over to asset allocation. I've known wells far

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Speaker 2: going to be hugely US centric. Has that changed?

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Speaker 6: That really has not changed. We still have a longer

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Speaker 6: term overweight to US relative to the global market capitalization,

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Speaker 6: and right now we also have a shorter term were

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Speaker 6: tactical positioning where we're overweight US as well. And again

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Speaker 6: that's that quality theme upon quality US large caps over

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Speaker 6: small caps and develop markets over emerging markets.

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Speaker 2: One final question, I mean, if we go out one year,

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Speaker 2: you're going to stagger into May June of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm saying that does sixty forty work

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Speaker 2: Tracy mcmillion, Yes.

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Speaker 6: Sixty forty works out a year. In fact, we do

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Speaker 6: see higher equity markets, as you pointed out in twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty five, and we also think that if these higher rates,

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Speaker 6: bonds are offering very attractive opportunities for investors. So we

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Speaker 6: do see sixty forty working for relations starting to be

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Speaker 6: less positive than they've been over the past couple of years,

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Speaker 6: and that will have a diversification impact as well.

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Speaker 2: Tracy McMillian, thank you so much. With well spargo George Saravellas,

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Speaker 2: he's Deutsche Bank writing brilliant, brilliant notes. I just can't

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Speaker 2: say enough about what he writes on foreign exchange as well,

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Speaker 2: and we're going to bring in George Sarah Wilson. We'll

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Speaker 2: we'll do the Bloomberg Business Flash after that. George, I

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Speaker 2: look at the theme into the Summer and to me,

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Speaker 2: it's a jumble. What is your coherent theme into the summer?

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Speaker 5: Good to hear your voice, Tom, good morning. So our

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Speaker 5: theme is low vall. Persisting in an environment of low

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Speaker 5: volatility carry tends to do quite well, so in effects

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Speaker 5: you should see more of the same. But I think

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Speaker 5: a crucial point is the dollar is a high yielding currency,

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Speaker 5: and if you think about the start of the year,

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Speaker 5: so many people made the argument that if equities go up,

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Speaker 5: the dollar should weaken, and the dollar strong despite equities

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Speaker 5: at record highs, and that's because it's part of the

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Speaker 5: carry trade. So we're positive on the dollar and we're

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Speaker 5: positive on carry as well.

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Speaker 2: Are the correlations in place across equities, bounds, currencies and

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Speaker 2: commodities in the moon shot and commodities so much? Are

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Speaker 2: those correlations normal right now into the summer? George saravellis.

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Speaker 1: Well, I would say that' very different from last year.

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Speaker 5: And this is something we've been writing about for a

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Speaker 5: while because if you look at the last few years,

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Speaker 5: the world was dominated by this negative supply shop, so

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Speaker 5: you had low growth, high inflation. That was bad for

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Speaker 5: equities and it was bad for bonds as well. But

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Speaker 5: now we're in a more normal world, so to speak,

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Speaker 5: and it's all about demand. Do you have demand holding

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Speaker 5: in and therefore you can have yields still high, which

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Speaker 5: you do, but equity strong as well because the demand

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Speaker 5: side of the economy is proving very resilient to these

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Speaker 5: high levels of central bank rates. So I would say

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Speaker 5: the correlation has gone back to being a bit more

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Speaker 5: normal after being a lot more abnormal over the last

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Speaker 5: few years.

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Speaker 4: So George, give us your thoughts, your perspective here with

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Speaker 4: a little bit of hindsight, what's happening with the Japanese end,

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Speaker 4: what has happened over the last several weeks, and kind

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Speaker 4: of what's your view here.

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Speaker 5: It's probably the most interesting currency in develop markets at

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Speaker 5: the moment. I think what's happening is simple that the

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Speaker 5: Bank of Japan is just too slow. It's very duvish,

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Speaker 5: which means if you look at real rates in Japan

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Speaker 5: their minus two percent. So everyone else, even the Swiss,

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Speaker 5: have positive rates with a one handle or above, and

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Speaker 5: Japan still stands out. So even though policy is normalizing,

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Speaker 5: it's normalizing from such a low base that it doesn't

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Speaker 5: do anything to materially erode that carry disadvantage which the

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Speaker 5: yen has.

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Speaker 1: So we think as long as the Bank of Japan

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Speaker 1: goes very slow, which they are, the yen will stay weak.

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Speaker 5: And they're going slow because they still don't believe inflation

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Speaker 5: is at two.

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Speaker 4: Percent, right exactly. So if we think about the US dollar,

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Speaker 4: then in that context, I mean, is there any reason

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Speaker 4: to think this dollar will not remain strong here versus

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Speaker 4: pretty much everything else else out there.

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Speaker 5: Well, I think there are two ways you can get

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Speaker 5: a week dollar. The one is if you believe in

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Speaker 5: a US recession and therefore a sharp fed cutting cycle,

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Speaker 5: which many people did six months ago. But we have

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Speaker 5: believed in that scenario for a while. So from my perspective,

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Speaker 5: even if you get effect cutting cycle, it's not going

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Speaker 5: to be steeped.

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Speaker 1: The dollar is still going to be a high yielder.

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Speaker 5: So that's one scenario to get a week dollar. The

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Speaker 5: other one is if you get a week dollar policy

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Speaker 5: after the US election.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean by that is not.

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Speaker 5: Just statements on the dollar, but outright policy to restrict capital.

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Speaker 1: Inflows for example foreigners.

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Speaker 5: We don't think that's going to happen either, instead of

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Speaker 5: think we're going to get restrictive trade policy.

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Speaker 1: So we're in the dollar stronger for longer.

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Speaker 2: Camp George, fold your expertise on foreign exchange into gold

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Speaker 2: to the moon, and I'm going to state it is

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Speaker 2: a basic idea at the margins central banks are buying gold.

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Speaker 2: If they're buying gold, are they owning less dollars? Give

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Speaker 2: us a paragraph on that.

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Speaker 5: So many people, I think, look at the relationship between

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Speaker 5: gold and the dollar and say, well, gold is going

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Speaker 5: up because there's flight from the dollar. People are worried

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Speaker 5: about US fiscal sustainability, and therefore we should more generally.

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Speaker 1: Be worried about the dollar. I don't think that's the

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Speaker 1: case at all. If you look at what's going on this.

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Speaker 5: Year, there's two things that are doing very well, gold

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Speaker 5: and the dollar at the same time. So there's someone

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Speaker 5: in the market there that likes both the dollar and gold,

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Speaker 5: and I would argue this is the outcome of essentially

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Speaker 5: decoupling in deglobalization, where if you look at China, for example,

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Speaker 5: this is very public data. You have accumulation of gold

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Speaker 5: reserves on the official sector side, but on the private

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Speaker 5: sector side, the private sector wants to go into dollars,

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Speaker 5: so you have capital flight from China away from the

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Speaker 5: local currency, which is why the UN is so weak,

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Speaker 5: and it's going both dollars and gold at the same time.

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Speaker 2: What's your euro call, please? I mean, we've got some

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Speaker 2: people talking you're a weakness to parody. Where are you

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Speaker 2: on that?

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Speaker 5: So we have the URO effectively doing a range that's

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Speaker 5: quite similar to last year.

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Speaker 1: So if you think about.

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Speaker 5: Last year it was around one of five to one thirteen.

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Speaker 5: I'd say the risks to that range the biased lower,

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Speaker 5: but basically one to one ten for me is a

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Speaker 5: range that's quite realistic for this year.

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Speaker 4: All right, Tom and I are thinking about coming over

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Speaker 4: to London. We've got the suite book at the NED here.

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Speaker 4: How concerned should we be about this? The British pound here?

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Speaker 4: What's you call there?

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be that concerned.

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Speaker 5: The pound tends to follow the dollar in general, so

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Speaker 5: if the dollars from against the euro, it's very likely

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Speaker 5: it stays cheap against it stays expensive against the.

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Speaker 1: Pound as well.

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Speaker 5: You have to, though, think about one thing, which is

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Speaker 5: the UK election coming up. It shouldn't lead to any

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Speaker 5: major change in policy unless you get a tail supprise outcome,

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Speaker 5: and I stress this is a tail outcome of potentially

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Speaker 5: the second party, because everyone expects Labor to be the first.

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Speaker 5: If the second party that wins is the Liberal Democrats

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Speaker 5: as opposed to the concern relatives again distant but not

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Speaker 5: a non zero probability, then you could have the market

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Speaker 5: thinking of a much more pro European stance that could

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Speaker 5: help the pound. So it's a tail scenario, but it's

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Speaker 5: the first time where it's imported to tail rather than

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Speaker 5: a negative one.

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Speaker 2: Georg Serave Ellos, thank you so much. With Deuigia bank

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Speaker 2: here you j look at the front pages. She was

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Speaker 2: looking at him through halftime at the NIXT yesterday. Lisa

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Speaker 2: matayl what do you have?

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Speaker 7: All right, we're starting with the sports kind of center

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Speaker 7: thing since we were talking about the next one. Not okay,

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Speaker 7: Axios is actually reporting Amazon nearing a deal that would

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Speaker 7: make its streaming service Prime one of the partners of

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Speaker 7: the NBA, one of three partners of the NBA. So

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Speaker 7: it's going to add a misk of regular season playoff games, Suprime.

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Speaker 7: I mean Amazon has been pushing though this streaming. You know,

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Speaker 7: the NFL's Thursday Night Football. They extended a deal with

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Speaker 7: the WNBA for two more seasons. NASCAR is coming.

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Speaker 2: To I'm so glad you brought this up because Paul

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Speaker 2: I thought of you this weekend. It's not going to

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Speaker 2: be like a gradual thing. The streamers are just going.

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Speaker 4: To say now when when these deals come up for renewal, Tom,

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Speaker 4: I think the expectation is on all sides that these

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Speaker 4: big tech companies to streamers will be there Thursday night.

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Speaker 4: Yankee games for the past couple of seasons have been

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Speaker 4: on there, and you know the old Yankee fans up

400
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Speaker 4: in the Bronx, they're calling up sports talk radio saying,

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Speaker 4: how do I get the game tonight?

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Speaker 5: Yes?

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Speaker 2: I mean, and also I believe I may have this wrong,

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Speaker 2: but Netflix Christmas Day football seventy five million I think

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Speaker 2: per game.

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Speaker 4: I think.

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Speaker 2: So that's almost more than Taylor Swift Banks exactly.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's because that's where that's where the viewership is going.

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Speaker 4: The court cutting and all that. You don't get the

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Speaker 4: bang for your buck with your broadcasting cable networks.

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Speaker 7: Next crazy, So Jeff bass is Blue Argent flight over

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Speaker 7: the weekend flew. But you know you always get those

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Speaker 7: like side stories out from each flight. So this one

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Speaker 7: I thought was interesting off of it went off Sunday

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Speaker 7: Ed Dwight. He was America's first bla black astronaut candidate.

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Speaker 7: On Sunday he finally rocketed into space. Sixty years later,

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Speaker 7: the age of ninety. He was on that flight. So

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Speaker 7: the backstory is he was an Air Force pilot when

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Speaker 7: President John F. Kennedy kind of pushed him to be

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Speaker 7: a candidate for NASA's early Astronaut Corps, but he wasn't

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Speaker 7: picked for that nineteen sixty three class. NASA actually didn't

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Speaker 7: select black astronauts until nineteen seventy eight. So he went

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Speaker 7: on this flight. He called it a life changing experience.

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Speaker 7: Now he is actually a record holder the oldest person

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Speaker 7: in space by two months from William Chattner, Wieve Shatner,

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Speaker 7: Captain Kirky. He is two months older than William Shatner

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Speaker 7: when he went back in twenty twenty one. So I

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Speaker 7: love those like side stories from the launches that he that, Yeah,

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Speaker 7: very very interesting.

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Speaker 1: I like that one.

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Speaker 7: Sure, people working from home, so they're starting to take

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Speaker 7: advantage of shopping online. You know, the boss isn't looking

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Speaker 7: over your shoulder. You can kind of get a couple

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Speaker 7: things done. So the research says the pandemic, you know,

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Speaker 7: sparked the rise in online shopping, but it's continued. Last year,

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Speaker 7: we spent three hundred and seventy five billion dollars more

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Speaker 7: than we would have otherwise. So how do they know

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00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 7: it's coming from hybrid workers, Well, they said areas where

439
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 7: work from home jobs are more popular. That's where the

440
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 7: shopping went up, and then areas where people are kind

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00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 7: of back going to the office. That's where the levels

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00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 7: were down.

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00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 4: People going back to the office. Where are these errands?

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00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: Nick Bloom? Somebody had Oh, Diane Swank had this one

445
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: this weekend. She does great work. Diane Swank follow her

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00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 2: on LinkedIn and Twitter had Nick Bloom of Stanford, which

447
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 2: says traditional firms they're coming back in the newer formation.

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00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 2: Firms are embedded with work from home. Okay, that was

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00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: the basic thrust to what Diane Swank. Yep, it was

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00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 2: alluding to. I have careful, I have to be careful.

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00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 2: What we are is I have the surveillance cork in

452
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,439
Speaker 2: my mouth because I'm very opinionated on this and nobody

453
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 2: wants to hear it. But so we're working from home

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00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 2: ordering on Amazon.

455
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 4: Yes, that's the thing.

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00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,880
Speaker 7: And that's the thing. There's the people who work from home.

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00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,679
Speaker 7: They spoke to the Wall Street Journal. They're saying that

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00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:04,919
Speaker 7: they do it because they're not in the people in

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00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 7: the office get the coffee break, they get to chitty

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00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 7: chat with other people. They don't have that, so this

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00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 7: is their relief.

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00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 2: On the chat. This is critical. The chitty chat is

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00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 2: part of the fabric culture of corporate interplay. I would say,

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00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 2: can you get to the marginal, great idea or even

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00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 2: good idea without the chitty chat? I don't think you can.

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00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 2: Let's do zoom with our institutional salesforce. No get Jamie

467
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 2: Diamond said this in the annual letter Get on the

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00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 2: plane and go yep.

469
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 4: I don't you know I've thrown into towel. You know, Well,

470
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 4: so let the new generation do their things on.

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00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: Live chat on this, get out on YouTube and tell

472
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 2: us what you think from work from home. The middle

473
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: child has told me it's a complete scam. She's lined

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00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 2: up and you know the people are working from nine

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00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 2: to eleven forty two, and that they do. They do

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00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: like six hours of work in an hour and a half.

477
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: No one's policing them, right, I mean, that's just what

478
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 2: the middle child says. You're gonna save us here. You

479
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 2: got something next before I get the hook?

480
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 7: Last one, No, last one?

481
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: Okay.

482
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 7: So you've seen them, like the different flavor combinations like

483
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 7: Peeps flavored Pepsi and pink lemonade flavored kit Cats, like

484
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,479
Speaker 7: all these wild off the wall things. Well, yes, their

485
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 7: social media sense, but experts are saying there is a

486
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 7: little more thinking behind it. So the Wall Street Journal

487
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 7: spoke with food companies marketers. They said that the taste

488
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 7: palette of the consumer is changing. You know, they want more,

489
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 7: They want a little bit of sour and sweet. Our

490
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 7: patch kids, Oreos, patch Kids, Oreos. I'm telling you, they

491
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 7: want the best of both in one. Gen Z is

492
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 7: also fueling that because they're a little bit more adventurous.

493
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 7: They're on social media looking at these new flavor trends.

494
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 7: But they're saying it helps the brands, right, So it

495
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 7: helps bring in new customers and helps Joe that they're

496
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 7: fun and edgy. But it also helps nudge buyers to

497
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 7: buy the original and the new flavor so they can

498
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 7: test out which both. So now the customer is buying more.

499
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 7: They're buying the original and the fancy new flavor.

500
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 4: Oddball parents aren't entirely new in the food and beverage industry.

501
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 4: Hubba Bubba released a bubble gum flavored soda in the

502
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 4: late nineteen eighties.

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00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: For example, I just.

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00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 2: Just why I talked to Mandolies this week and they

505
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 2: called me up. They said, thanks for the efforts on

506
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 2: Tang zero. There's Tang and there's tang zero. There's no

507
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 2: hubba bubba hubble bubba tangs.

508
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 4: This is just on the margin at the end of

509
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 4: the consumer staples grow with you know, GDP. I don't

510
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 4: care how you package it.

511
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: How you doing. There's solid double digital.

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00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: But I do like that.

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00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 4: I do like the smaller serving sodas like that. Yeah,

514
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 4: because I can't. I'm not into the twelve hours anymore.

515
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 4: So that thing works out perfectly for me. So whoever

516
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 4: was thinking of that, good job, Lisa Mateo.

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00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 2: Thank you so much the newspapers. This is the Bloomberg

518
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment,

519
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live

520
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to

521
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am

522
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe

523
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,720
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524
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

525
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.