WEBVTT - SCOTUS Opinions, Debate Reaction

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<v Speaker 2>Here we go the breaking news from the Supreme Court.

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<v Speaker 2>Supreme Court overturning a Chevron ruling. And this really is

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<v Speaker 2>a blow to agency power. So this is truly about

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<v Speaker 2>federal agencies and the current wide birth They have to

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<v Speaker 2>interpret unclear laws, and it looks like the Supreme Court

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<v Speaker 2>has now overturned that Chevron deference. Let's get to June

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<v Speaker 2>Grosso right away. She covers Bloomberg legal analysts and hosts

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<v Speaker 2>of the Bloomberg Law Show. June We've been waiting for this.

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<v Speaker 2>Walk us through what this means.

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<v Speaker 3>So the Chevron doctrine means, you know, the legal definition

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<v Speaker 3>of it basically is that if there is an ambiguous

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<v Speaker 3>statute and ambiguous law, then deference is given to the

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<v Speaker 3>agency's interpretation. What it also means is, basically, you know

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<v Speaker 3>who has more power the administrators at agencies or judges,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, experts in the area or judges who have

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<v Speaker 3>to sort of learn as they as the.

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<v Speaker 4>Cases go on.

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<v Speaker 3>So we have been suspecting that this court was going

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<v Speaker 3>to overturn Chevron because conservatives have for years been targeting it,

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<v Speaker 3>and several of the justices, including Clarence Thomas, have been

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<v Speaker 3>talking about overturning Chevron.

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<v Speaker 4>What this means.

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<v Speaker 3>And this case was just a case, actually it was

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<v Speaker 3>two cases with the National Marine Fisheries where there's a

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<v Speaker 3>rule that the fisheries have to have observers on the

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<v Speaker 3>boats and they have to pay for those.

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<v Speaker 4>And that was being challenged here.

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<v Speaker 3>And so even though the fact is that they've never

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<v Speaker 3>actually had to pay for those fines, but theoretically they do.

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<v Speaker 4>So what the court is saying, and.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the chief road is it's six to three again,

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<v Speaker 3>second six to three decision in this case. And you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we suspected it that it would come out this way

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<v Speaker 3>because of yesterday's opinion knocking back the sec and saying

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<v Speaker 3>it can't have in fraud cases, it can't have its

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<v Speaker 3>in house counsel. It has to be people have to

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<v Speaker 3>be able to go to the federal court and have

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<v Speaker 3>a trial by jury. So we expected this, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>anyone knows. There are these people who say this is

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<v Speaker 3>the you know, basically the end of the world kind

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<v Speaker 3>of things. This means that federal agencies are going to

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<v Speaker 3>you know, cut back on their regulations. Things are going

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<v Speaker 3>to be challenged, they do things, you know, all of regulations,

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<v Speaker 3>health and safety, consumer regulations, food and drug that all

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<v Speaker 3>these are going to be affected by this, and they will.

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<v Speaker 3>But the question is how much, and that remains to

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<v Speaker 3>be seen. So and people on the other side say, well, no,

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<v Speaker 3>it's not going to really have that much of an effect.

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<v Speaker 3>We haven't been really using Chevron, and as I've said before,

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<v Speaker 3>the Department of Labor has already stopped using Chevron as

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<v Speaker 3>a reason for its regulations in light of this case

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<v Speaker 3>coming down.

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<v Speaker 4>So we just don't know what the effect will be,

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<v Speaker 4>whether it will be huge.

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<v Speaker 3>And also the Supreme Court hasn't really based any of

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<v Speaker 3>its decisions.

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<v Speaker 4>On Chevron in a while, so who knows. But is

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<v Speaker 4>a blow to agency power. As you said in the

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<v Speaker 4>first place.

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<v Speaker 5>Why do we call it the Chevron deference, Because, like

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<v Speaker 5>you said, this actual case at hand that the Supreme

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<v Speaker 5>Court is making a ruling on right now didn't have

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<v Speaker 5>anything to do with the actual company Chevron. Well, it

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<v Speaker 5>was just a precedence walk us through life.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, in how we're understanding that.

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<v Speaker 3>With Supreme Court precedents, often the name of the case

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<v Speaker 3>where it's decided is given the title. So Chevron difference

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<v Speaker 3>comes from a case four decades ago involving Chevron. So

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<v Speaker 3>that's why we call it Chevron defference. It has that name.

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<v Speaker 3>Has nothing really to do with the case the fisheries

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<v Speaker 3>case here, but that's the name it's had for four

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<v Speaker 3>decades and that's the way it's referred to. So you know,

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<v Speaker 3>if you're in law school, that's what you're studying, the

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<v Speaker 3>Chevron Chevron.

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<v Speaker 4>It's called it's Chevron document.

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<v Speaker 3>It's called Chevron deference because you give deference to the

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<v Speaker 3>agency's interpretation.

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<v Speaker 2>So does this mean, though, that it's going to be

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<v Speaker 2>judges that are going to decide the laws versus experts

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<v Speaker 2>within agencies that aren't elected.

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<v Speaker 4>That decide laws.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, that is the intention of the what a judges

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<v Speaker 3>know about it interpreting? Well, what happens is judges, let's say,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, they'll learn, for example, you have anti trust cases. Right,

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<v Speaker 3>judges do all kinds of complex cases, So you have

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<v Speaker 3>anti trust cases, and they take evidence from both sides,

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<v Speaker 3>they listen to all the experts, they study it, and

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<v Speaker 3>then they come out with a ruling. I mean the

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<v Speaker 3>Supreme Court, are they experts in the areas that they've

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<v Speaker 3>been homelessness? You know, that's the way the judicial system works.

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<v Speaker 3>You have judges who are supposedly independent and are independent

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<v Speaker 3>and they come to a decision based on the facts

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<v Speaker 3>and based on weighing both sides of the arguments. But

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<v Speaker 3>you know, it's going to make it more difficult for

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<v Speaker 3>some agency regulations and you can imagine that. And this

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<v Speaker 3>was pushed by conservatives and business groups. They wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>get rid of Chevron. So and this is all about

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<v Speaker 3>the you know, the war on the administrative state. How

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<v Speaker 3>the six Conservatives have sort of been bent on not

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<v Speaker 3>taking down the administrative state, but certainly lessening the power

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<v Speaker 3>of federal agencies. And as last year there was a

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<v Speaker 3>case involving the EPA and its control over water pollution,

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<v Speaker 3>and the Supreme Court invented a doctrine called the Major

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<v Speaker 3>Questions doctrine so that they could take back some.

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<v Speaker 4>Of the power that the EPA has there.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's been going on for a while, but this

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<v Speaker 3>has been sort of out there as a target of

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<v Speaker 3>conservatives and business groups. So the impact is who knows

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<v Speaker 3>what the impact will really be.

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<v Speaker 5>So what exactly do the how do the businesses feel

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<v Speaker 5>about this decision? What is the general argument of why

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<v Speaker 5>the businesses want to overturn this.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they think that agencies have too much power basically,

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<v Speaker 3>so they think that this is evening out the landscape,

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<v Speaker 3>and you know, it just will make you know, businesses

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<v Speaker 3>don't like restrictions, right, I mean the sec that all

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<v Speaker 3>that we were talking about yesterday was in house you know,

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<v Speaker 3>whether you can have your proceeding in house judged by

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<v Speaker 3>an administrative law judge who knows the area.

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<v Speaker 4>Securities right, securities.

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<v Speaker 3>Lawyer who knows the area, versus being able to go

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<v Speaker 3>to court and have it, you know, a trial. So

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<v Speaker 3>obviously it's it's sort of the less restrictions on business,

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<v Speaker 3>the better it is. So that's I think what you know,

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<v Speaker 3>And so I haven't I haven't been able to read

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<v Speaker 3>it because I've been talking about it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but my question, how much of this do you

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<v Speaker 2>think is about climate and the EPA And they're really

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<v Speaker 2>tough restrictions that have come down through the agencies on interpretations.

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<v Speaker 3>That excuse me, that's one sort of big area here.

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<v Speaker 3>But it's not just climate that's going to be affected,

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<v Speaker 3>of course not.

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<v Speaker 2>But was that really why conservatives were pushing this or

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<v Speaker 2>we're not totally clear.

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<v Speaker 3>Conservatives have been pushing this for And what's funny is

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<v Speaker 3>this case, the Chevron doctrine was a conservative doctrine that

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<v Speaker 3>was put out forty years ago, and in time conservatives

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<v Speaker 3>have just you know, don't like it. They don't like

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<v Speaker 3>the restrictions that it imposes, and so they've.

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<v Speaker 4>They have attacked it.

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<v Speaker 3>But so it's it's just a you know, where you

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<v Speaker 3>want less regulation. It's sort of you know, when Trump

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<v Speaker 3>came in, less regulation, that's one of his things. I

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<v Speaker 3>took regulations away and he had this big stack of regulations.

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<v Speaker 3>So and it, you know, also depending on the administration

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<v Speaker 3>whether or not regulations are being enforced more what.

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<v Speaker 4>The regulations are.

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<v Speaker 3>But this you know, will affect everything, workplace rules, every rule.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that what's gonna happen is a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of agencies are going to do what labor has been doing,

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<v Speaker 3>which is not rely on that say, it doesn't rely

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<v Speaker 3>on this. This is our agency power. It comes from

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<v Speaker 3>our agency power. We don't have to go to the

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<v Speaker 3>Chevron difference.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, June, thank you very much. I know we're

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<v Speaker 2>not done with you yet. Stay tuned because you never

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<v Speaker 2>know what else is coming out. June Grassol Bloomberg, Senior

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<v Speaker 2>legal analyst, joining us. Let's continue the conversation here Anthony

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<v Speaker 2>Sabino as professor at Saint John's University, Tobin College of Business,

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<v Speaker 2>and as a reminder, we're looking at the Chevron deference

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<v Speaker 2>has now been overturned. The Supreme Court throws out decades

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<v Speaker 2>old legal doctrine that empowered federal regulations to interpret unclear laws. Professor,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you for joining us. We appreciate it. You've had

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<v Speaker 2>some time to read through the opinions, give us your

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<v Speaker 2>takeaways here.

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, well, first of all, thank you for having me

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<v Speaker 6>on on this important day. This decision is the right decision.

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<v Speaker 6>It's a very good decision because it honors both the

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<v Speaker 6>Constitution in terms of its text and its constitutional plan. Now,

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<v Speaker 6>no doubt we have heard and we're going to hear

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<v Speaker 6>a lot more of the ringing of hands and stermon

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<v Speaker 6>drag about. This is the Supreme Court going off the rails,

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<v Speaker 6>discarding story decisives, upending agency power and basically making life

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<v Speaker 6>very difficult for the agencies. I respectfully disagree, And to

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<v Speaker 6>use a word I've heard mister Biden used quite recently,

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<v Speaker 6>quite a lot recently, is that's a lot of malarkey.

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<v Speaker 6>First of all, it's not a radical decision. It's true

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<v Speaker 6>to the Constitution's text and to the constitutional plan for

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<v Speaker 6>the Supreme Court for all judges, wherever they may be.

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<v Speaker 6>Their job description can be summed up in two words, judges.

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<v Speaker 6>Judge Chevron diminished that. Okay. It required judges to defer

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<v Speaker 6>to agencies, and it was keeping judges from doing their

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<v Speaker 6>jobs which is too independently, thoughtfully and of course forthrightly

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<v Speaker 6>use all their skills or their wisdom to interpret the law.

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<v Speaker 6>And as such, Sefron inflicted damage upon checks and balances

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<v Speaker 6>and separation of powers. In fact, Cheffron introduced an imbalance

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<v Speaker 6>because it gave an advantage to the agencies, to the

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<v Speaker 6>government side. And again, it's a zero sum game. If

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<v Speaker 6>you advantage one side, then by force of logic, you

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<v Speaker 6>disadvantaged the other. But this case now does low for

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<v Speaker 6>bright is it levels the playing field. Now everyone comes

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<v Speaker 6>into court, okay, and has the same situation. The agencies

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<v Speaker 6>will still be able to advocate for their position, the public, okay,

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<v Speaker 6>the American citizens, she will still be able to advocate

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<v Speaker 6>for her position, and the court will listen to both sides,

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<v Speaker 6>and we will take it. We will take it from there,

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<v Speaker 6>and as such, now we will have that balance restored

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<v Speaker 6>as the way it should be.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, how should.

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<v Speaker 5>We understand what this means for business?

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<v Speaker 7>Is?

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<v Speaker 4>We are Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 5>We do follow markets very closely. What's your take on

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<v Speaker 5>the business implications of this decision?

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<v Speaker 1>Right?

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<v Speaker 6>Well, yes, yes, okay, right.

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<v Speaker 8>I'm sorry, sorry, I'm zooming I I'm zooming in at

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<v Speaker 8>the same time. Okay, but I'll stay on the phone

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<v Speaker 8>with you.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, we got you.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you hear us?

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<v Speaker 9>Yes, yes, okay.

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<v Speaker 8>Do you want me to stay on the phone or

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<v Speaker 8>the computer?

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<v Speaker 2>This is a great question. I feel like the computer

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<v Speaker 2>is just fine.

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<v Speaker 4>All right.

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<v Speaker 2>So let's get back to that question in tid that

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<v Speaker 2>Emily was asking in terms of what businesses sort of

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<v Speaker 2>think about.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, businesses are going to obviously welcome this because it

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<v Speaker 8>removes that unfair advantage. It is not, in any way,

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<v Speaker 8>shape or form, going to radically change how agencies do business.

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<v Speaker 8>They still have all the enforcement tools available to them

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<v Speaker 8>that they had previously. They're still going to be able

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<v Speaker 8>to argue their position, for they simply will know no

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<v Speaker 8>longer have that unfair advantage of coming in ahead of

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<v Speaker 8>the game and already being able to basically tell federal judges, well, look,

0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:09.959
<v Speaker 8>you don't have to apply your skills, you don't have

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:14.080
<v Speaker 8>to analyze these ambiguities and statutes. We're the experts. We

0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:16.480
<v Speaker 8>will do that for you, and just listen to us.

0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:19.880
<v Speaker 8>And again, that violates separation of powers and checks and

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:23.000
<v Speaker 8>balances because you diminish the power of the judges to

0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.800
<v Speaker 8>do the job that they constitutionally bound to do, and

0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.280
<v Speaker 8>you were expanding the power of the agencies, which are,

0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 8>of course, as we know, part of the executive branch

0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:36.360
<v Speaker 8>part of Article two. So you elevate one branch over

0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.320
<v Speaker 8>the other branch and prevent the other branch, the judiciary,

0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 8>from doing its job. Now, certainly businesses will benefit by

0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:47.160
<v Speaker 8>having this, but also enforcement actions are going to go around.

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:49.360
<v Speaker 8>They're going to continue and the way they have in

0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:50.040
<v Speaker 8>the best.

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:52.240
<v Speaker 4>Going forward.

0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:56.400
<v Speaker 2>Do you think that laws will then be written with

0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.720
<v Speaker 2>different kind of clarity then to prevent things being helped

0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:01.400
<v Speaker 2>up courts like exactly.

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:03.240
<v Speaker 4>Okay, so that's the whole point.

0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:04.599
<v Speaker 2>Right, So if that's the case, can you give me

0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 2>an example of something that might have been that that

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.680
<v Speaker 2>might be rewritten or might be written differently, now that

0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.000
<v Speaker 2>the Chevron deference is by the way aside.

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.000
<v Speaker 8>Okay, Well, for example, and I heard you discussing this

0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:17.760
<v Speaker 8>for June a couple of moments ago. Is environmental laws

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:22.839
<v Speaker 8>and regulations promulgated there under Congress. And again this ships

0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:26.280
<v Speaker 8>if anything shifts a burden slightly or basically is reminded

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:27.960
<v Speaker 8>to Congress that they need to do a better job.

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.400
<v Speaker 8>We have to remember that one of the reasons Chevron

0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.760
<v Speaker 8>came about was that the Supreme Court at that time,

0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:34.640
<v Speaker 8>in nineteen eighty fourth said all right, well, what do

0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.840
<v Speaker 8>we do when there were ambiguities in the statute? Well,

0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.559
<v Speaker 8>you have a statute that's ambiguous. You have an agency

0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:44.880
<v Speaker 8>that promulgates regulation or brings some enforcement action to enforce

0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:50.439
<v Speaker 8>that statute notwithstanding the ambiguity. And as such, a court

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.720
<v Speaker 8>at that time in Chefron said, well, let's listen to

0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 8>the experts, let's listen to the agencies. And that again

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:59.320
<v Speaker 8>at the time Chefron was a good decision and rightly

0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:02.720
<v Speaker 8>decided and worked, but it's been taken too far where

0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.600
<v Speaker 8>now again the difference has gotten out of hand and

0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:09.560
<v Speaker 8>it has increased the imbalance of the favoritism of the

0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:12.760
<v Speaker 8>agency's view and also again basically shutting out for closing

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:15.520
<v Speaker 8>judges from doing their job. Now back to again as

0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 8>an example environmental law bit it applies to securities law

0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.120
<v Speaker 8>anti trust law as well because over the controversy presently therein,

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:26.080
<v Speaker 8>it's going to compel Congress to write better laws, to

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 8>erase ambiguity, to iron out the ambiguities and the problems

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.320
<v Speaker 8>and the misconceptions in the words the statute, so that

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:37.840
<v Speaker 8>way you have clear statutory text. Therefore, regulations promulgated by

0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 8>agencies will just be just as clear because they are

0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.520
<v Speaker 8>starting from the clear foundation of the statute itself. And

0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 8>enforcement actions in terms of what can be brought and

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 8>what cannot be brought will likewise benefit from that same clarity,

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 8>and judges of course will have an easier time because

0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 8>as again the Supreme Court has said, and the Supreme

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 8>Court of two hundred years is said, we go by

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.880
<v Speaker 8>the plain English meaning of a statute and we apply

0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 8>it according to its plain English text.

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:08.360
<v Speaker 2>So in theory though in theory, businesses should have then

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:10.160
<v Speaker 2>more clarity, I think, is what you're saying, Like, if

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:13.200
<v Speaker 2>the law is written more clearly, then the business should say, Okay,

0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:17.160
<v Speaker 2>now I got it. What's the reality though, like Congress

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.280
<v Speaker 2>can barely get you know, anything done, are they're really

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 2>going to be able to write more clearly when it

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.920
<v Speaker 2>comes to certain laws, particularly confusing ones like climate or antitrust.

0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:28.120
<v Speaker 8>That's their job, that's what we the people let them for.

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 8>And if Congress cannot write laws with clarity, then it's

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.600
<v Speaker 8>up to the American people to exercise our will at

0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:35.880
<v Speaker 8>the ballot box and put in people who know how

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:39.400
<v Speaker 8>to write a clear, unambiguous statute. It's as simple as that.

0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.880
<v Speaker 8>That's the constitutional plan. That's separation of powers, that's checks

0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 8>and balances. So Congress needs to get to work. And

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:49.240
<v Speaker 8>in the instances where Congress cannot be okay, as clear

0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:51.880
<v Speaker 8>as one might like, the bottom line is that also

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 8>reflects political compromise, because, yes, ambiguities arise in statutes because

0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:59.160
<v Speaker 8>of the political compromise that is undertaken in the halls

0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 8>of Congress, and of course with the President and ultimately

0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:04.040
<v Speaker 8>sign it off and make it into law and so forth.

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.720
<v Speaker 8>So to that extent, that's a natural part of the process.

0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 8>That's democracy at its best. That's a republican form of government.

0:16:10.840 --> 0:16:11.440
<v Speaker 9>That's it's best.

0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 1>All right.

0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.640
<v Speaker 8>You're not always going to get perfectly clear statutes, okay,

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 8>but again, there's nothing wrong with Congress trying to do that.

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 8>And if I may, as you say, businesses, but let

0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:23.280
<v Speaker 8>me broaden that, if you allow me. Okay, it's not

0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 8>just American businesses, it's all Americans. All Americans individual in

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:33.200
<v Speaker 8>their personal lives, their personal liberties, business people, okay, business persons, businesses,

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 8>and entities. We're all entitled to statutes that clearly state

0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:39.240
<v Speaker 8>what the law is. So that way we can look

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.720
<v Speaker 8>at them and we know that the law is consistent,

0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:45.160
<v Speaker 8>it's applied to everybody the same way. It's predictable. So

0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.000
<v Speaker 8>when I decide I'm going to take a certain course

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:49.360
<v Speaker 8>of action, okay, I know what the legal result is

0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.640
<v Speaker 8>going to be. That's part of America. That's the way

0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:54.840
<v Speaker 8>it should be. And once again, Local Right today restores

0:16:54.880 --> 0:16:57.200
<v Speaker 8>that balance by letting judges judge.

0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.680
<v Speaker 2>All right, professor, we hope that plays out that way.

0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 2>Anthony Sabino, Professor at Saint John's University Tobin College of Business.

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:05.840
<v Speaker 2>Just as a reminder to update you on this breaking news,

0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court overturns a Chevron ruling in a blow

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:13.199
<v Speaker 2>to agency power, throwing a four decade old legal doctrine

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:16.320
<v Speaker 2>that empowered federal regulators to interpret unclear laws, and now

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 2>that goes to judges and then back to Congress to

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:20.399
<v Speaker 2>write very clear laws.

0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:25.879
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.680
<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:35.879
<v Speaker 1>on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.639
<v Speaker 1>Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:43.199
<v Speaker 2>It's definitely the Supreme Court decision day. The latest is

0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:46.240
<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court backs the January sixth defendant curbing the

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:50.679
<v Speaker 2>use of Enron law. Remember, nearly three hundred defendants, including

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:53.359
<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump, were charged under this twenty two thousand and

0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.320
<v Speaker 2>two law that grew out of the Enron collapse regarding

0:17:56.359 --> 0:17:59.399
<v Speaker 2>people who obstruct an official proceeding. And it looks like

0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:03.080
<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court is backed the January sixth defendant. June

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:05.479
<v Speaker 2>grasshow senior legal analyst is still with US June. What

0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.920
<v Speaker 2>does this mean, Well.

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.000
<v Speaker 3>It means that some defendants are going to have their

0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 3>cases trim back. And this also affects Donald Trump because

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:19.600
<v Speaker 3>he's been charged with this same with the same crime.

0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 3>So it's going to affect a lot of January sixth cases.

0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:28.119
<v Speaker 3>I think very few of the January sixth defendants just

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:31.560
<v Speaker 3>have this charge that they're facing, So if they've had

0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:33.520
<v Speaker 3>a trial already, they'll probably still.

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:38.760
<v Speaker 2>Be And is this charge specifically against preventing approving President

0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:43.159
<v Speaker 2>Biden or or is it like them breaking into Congress

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.040
<v Speaker 2>it's like listening Nancy Pelosi's desk.

0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.520
<v Speaker 3>Well, it's yeah, it's about obstructing, that's the whole question.

0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:52.000
<v Speaker 3>It's about obstructing official proceeding. And this was a law

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.600
<v Speaker 3>that came in as we know post and Ron, and

0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:59.280
<v Speaker 3>so what the defendants were saying here is this law

0:18:59.320 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 3>doesn't apply to this kind of a proceeding. This is

0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:05.720
<v Speaker 3>a law about papers and disrupting papers and stuff. And

0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:08.680
<v Speaker 3>so but you know, the law could be any law

0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:11.879
<v Speaker 3>can be read broadly or narrowly. And it says that

0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.119
<v Speaker 3>they said that the government must show that the defendant

0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:19.080
<v Speaker 3>impaired the availability or integrity for use in an official

0:19:19.119 --> 0:19:23.480
<v Speaker 3>proceeding of records, documents, objects, or other things used in

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 3>an official proceeding, or attempting to do so.

0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.680
<v Speaker 4>It's six to three again. But what's interesting is that

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:31.000
<v Speaker 4>the three are not the three liberals.

0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:35.199
<v Speaker 3>The three are two liberals, Justice Kagan and Justice Soto

0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:39.639
<v Speaker 3>Mayor and conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett. So it'll be

0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.800
<v Speaker 3>interesting to see. And this is a case.

0:19:41.640 --> 0:19:44.399
<v Speaker 4>That the Chief wrote the majority opinion in.

0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:46.439
<v Speaker 3>And you know, if you look back a lot of

0:19:46.440 --> 0:19:50.200
<v Speaker 3>the most important cases, the Chief decided because the Chief

0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.160
<v Speaker 3>has the ability if he's in the majority, to decide

0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:56.800
<v Speaker 3>who will write the opinion, And so the Chief decided

0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:58.800
<v Speaker 3>that he'll write it himself, meaning that you know, he

0:19:58.840 --> 0:20:00.879
<v Speaker 3>thinks it's a very important case and he wanted to

0:20:00.920 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 3>handle it. And I'm trying to see what else it says.

0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.040
<v Speaker 2>While you're looking, I want to update our audience right now,

0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:13.400
<v Speaker 2>the Supreme Court backs January sixth defendant, curbing the use

0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 2>of Enron law. This could affect President Trump as well

0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.520
<v Speaker 2>as hundreds of January six cases. In this centers on

0:20:21.000 --> 0:20:24.439
<v Speaker 2>the Enron rule that said that people who obstruct an

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:28.480
<v Speaker 2>official proceeding could be charged for that. This appears to

0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:30.639
<v Speaker 2>them sort of put that on the sidelines and say, no,

0:20:30.800 --> 0:20:33.880
<v Speaker 2>this was not a disruption of a official proceeding. We're

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:37.600
<v Speaker 2>talking something like nearly three hundred defendants, including Donald Trump,

0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:41.080
<v Speaker 2>were charged under this two thousand and two law. So

0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:44.040
<v Speaker 2>we are looking at that as we go. So if

0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:47.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm one of the defendants, what happens June, like, do

0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 2>I go back and say.

0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:49.400
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, what happens?

0:20:49.480 --> 0:20:53.399
<v Speaker 3>You know, I don't know procedurally exactly how it works,

0:20:53.440 --> 0:20:56.560
<v Speaker 3>but most likely the defendants in these cases, their attorneys

0:20:56.600 --> 0:20:59.359
<v Speaker 3>will go to maybe the Justice Department will do something

0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:02.320
<v Speaker 3>wholesale and you know, drop all that. The Justicepartment will

0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 3>just come in and drop all the charges that have

0:21:04.920 --> 0:21:07.119
<v Speaker 3>to do with this and then you know, but it

0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:09.760
<v Speaker 3>could it's going to cause a lot of hassles in that.

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.600
<v Speaker 3>So defendants might say I was sentenced to well, not

0:21:12.680 --> 0:21:15.200
<v Speaker 3>many of them are serving long sentences. I was sentenced

0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:18.040
<v Speaker 3>to six months, and now this came out, so maybe

0:21:18.040 --> 0:21:19.840
<v Speaker 3>I should only be sentenced to three because I have

0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:23.239
<v Speaker 3>two other charges. But I mean, this is about the

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:28.360
<v Speaker 3>interpretation of this law and whether you could interpret it

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:33.159
<v Speaker 3>as meaning more than you know the fact that it

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:38.880
<v Speaker 3>applies to January sixth actions that a decision. I'm trying

0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 3>to just see one thing and to see what they said.

0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:43.320
<v Speaker 3>But in other words, it's they took the statute and

0:21:43.400 --> 0:21:45.800
<v Speaker 3>it was a novel use of this statue. But they

0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:48.879
<v Speaker 3>were trying to find something that would fit with the

0:21:48.920 --> 0:21:53.680
<v Speaker 3>way the January sixth rioters went into Congress and obstructed

0:21:53.680 --> 0:21:55.399
<v Speaker 3>what was going on there. So they were trying to

0:21:55.400 --> 0:21:57.520
<v Speaker 3>find a way to fit it, and this, to them fit.

0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:00.520
<v Speaker 3>But what the Supreme Court is saying is that, know,

0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:05.000
<v Speaker 3>this is not about that kind of proceeding. This is

0:22:05.040 --> 0:22:08.320
<v Speaker 3>about more about papers and documents, and that's what Enron

0:22:09.280 --> 0:22:16.440
<v Speaker 3>was about. So you know, it's hard because I'm.

0:22:14.680 --> 0:22:17.960
<v Speaker 4>You're talking as your as you read, Okay.

0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:19.399
<v Speaker 3>So the case is going to go back to the

0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:23.560
<v Speaker 3>DC Circuit and then it will assess whether the indictment

0:22:23.960 --> 0:22:26.560
<v Speaker 3>can still stand, the Trump indictment in light of this

0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:31.639
<v Speaker 3>new and narrow interpretation of the law. It'll be interesting

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.760
<v Speaker 3>to see what happened. Justice Jackson, who is siding with

0:22:34.840 --> 0:22:39.040
<v Speaker 3>the with the five Conservatives here has a concurring opinion.

0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:40.520
<v Speaker 4>It'll be interesting to see.

0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:44.000
<v Speaker 3>Why she decided to side with the conservatives. And you know,

0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:47.040
<v Speaker 3>we've seen this term that she's one of the liberal

0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 3>justices who has gone in different ways than the other

0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:54.119
<v Speaker 3>liberal justices in different points in certain cases, and this

0:22:54.240 --> 0:22:58.840
<v Speaker 3>is certainly one of them. So it's a narrow reading

0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:02.720
<v Speaker 3>of this statute, is what it basically is. And I

0:23:02.760 --> 0:23:05.600
<v Speaker 3>think you can see today we had there were all

0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:07.440
<v Speaker 3>six to three decisions today.

0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:11.120
<v Speaker 4>So I mean, this is a court so highly divided.

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:12.560
<v Speaker 3>And you know, at the beginning of the term, we

0:23:12.600 --> 0:23:15.760
<v Speaker 3>had justices even Justice amy Cony Barrett and Justice Sonya

0:23:15.760 --> 0:23:17.520
<v Speaker 3>so to Mayor and the Chief loves to say this,

0:23:17.800 --> 0:23:20.760
<v Speaker 3>you know, most of our decisions, most of the decisions

0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:21.880
<v Speaker 3>are unanimous.

0:23:21.960 --> 0:23:23.560
<v Speaker 4>Well, those are unanimous.

0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:26.119
<v Speaker 3>Because they are decisions in cases that you and the

0:23:26.160 --> 0:23:28.840
<v Speaker 3>rest of the public doesn't hear about their technical or

0:23:28.920 --> 0:23:32.199
<v Speaker 3>whatever when it comes to these hot button social issues,

0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:33.920
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to this kind of a case things

0:23:33.960 --> 0:23:36.240
<v Speaker 3>involving Trump, it's six to three yes.

0:23:36.440 --> 0:23:39.199
<v Speaker 4>So this court is so divided.

0:23:39.000 --> 0:23:41.520
<v Speaker 3>And this is exactly what they don't want to show

0:23:41.560 --> 0:23:45.160
<v Speaker 3>the public that they're divided down, you know, ideological lines

0:23:45.200 --> 0:23:45.920
<v Speaker 3>for the most part.

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:48.199
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and Dune, it looks like we will see you

0:23:48.200 --> 0:23:50.960
<v Speaker 2>on Monday. They're done for the day, and it looks

0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:53.119
<v Speaker 2>like Supreme Court's last opinion day will be Monday. We

0:23:53.160 --> 0:23:55.479
<v Speaker 2>know what that means. Trump Community will be coming at

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:57.640
<v Speaker 2>ten o'clock on Monday. We will be here with June

0:23:57.640 --> 0:24:02.160
<v Speaker 2>Grasso for that Senior Legal and List joining us at Bloomberg.

0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:04.680
<v Speaker 2>So again, we've had a lot going on. But the

0:24:04.760 --> 0:24:07.240
<v Speaker 2>latest Supreme Court ruling is that they sided with the

0:24:07.280 --> 0:24:09.800
<v Speaker 2>January sixth Capitol riot defendant in a ruling that could

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.919
<v Speaker 2>affect hundreds of prosecutions, including the criminal case in Washington

0:24:12.960 --> 0:24:16.320
<v Speaker 2>against former President Trump. It Noah goes back to the

0:24:16.400 --> 0:24:18.800
<v Speaker 2>d C Serga Court to rule on whether the indictments

0:24:18.840 --> 0:24:22.200
<v Speaker 2>can still stand under this new interpretation of the Enron

0:24:22.280 --> 0:24:28.679
<v Speaker 2>law that is designed to help ease official proceedings. That

0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:32.320
<v Speaker 2>you cannot obstruct official proceedings. That is that Enron rule.

0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:34.720
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's get more here with Caroline Frederickson, Senior

0:24:34.720 --> 0:24:38.480
<v Speaker 2>Fellow at Brennan and Strategic Council Counselor on Democracy and

0:24:38.560 --> 0:24:42.240
<v Speaker 2>Power at Open Markets Institute. Can you just walk me

0:24:42.320 --> 0:24:44.600
<v Speaker 2>through what you expect to happen next?

0:24:45.520 --> 0:24:47.919
<v Speaker 10>Well, I mean, I'm just like you. I'm trying to

0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:51.280
<v Speaker 10>digest what happened but I think we're going to have

0:24:51.720 --> 0:24:54.720
<v Speaker 10>a whole variety of cases that are going to be

0:24:54.760 --> 0:25:02.160
<v Speaker 10>reopened for return to lower cour for you know, either

0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:05.360
<v Speaker 10>dropping the charge all together and proceeding on the other charges,

0:25:06.560 --> 0:25:14.880
<v Speaker 10>or adding further you know, evidence and qualifications to make

0:25:14.920 --> 0:25:19.720
<v Speaker 10>it more pertinent to the actual connection.

0:25:19.440 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 9>To the destruction of evidence.

0:25:20.880 --> 0:25:23.840
<v Speaker 10>And you know, I think that's going to be obviously challenging.

0:25:23.840 --> 0:25:26.879
<v Speaker 10>There are a lot of people who've been convicted already.

0:25:27.040 --> 0:25:30.960
<v Speaker 5>Caroline, to what extent are you considering this a win

0:25:31.520 --> 0:25:33.520
<v Speaker 5>for Donald Trump a positive development?

0:25:36.119 --> 0:25:37.800
<v Speaker 10>You know, it's really hard to say on you know,

0:25:37.840 --> 0:25:40.280
<v Speaker 10>the little that you know, we know, having just glanced

0:25:40.280 --> 0:25:43.400
<v Speaker 10>at the headnotes to try and absorb it. But he's

0:25:43.400 --> 0:25:45.840
<v Speaker 10>certainly going to make it out like it's a win

0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:49.280
<v Speaker 10>and that the Justice Department has overreached and that it

0:25:49.320 --> 0:25:53.760
<v Speaker 10>continues to overreach and his and it goes to his

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:58.480
<v Speaker 10>story about the vendetta that is has been waged against

0:25:58.600 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 10>him by an over politicized Department of Justice. So he's

0:26:04.280 --> 0:26:06.199
<v Speaker 10>going to call it a win regardless of what anybody

0:26:06.280 --> 0:26:09.000
<v Speaker 10>else says. To the extent that it actually affects any

0:26:09.040 --> 0:26:11.160
<v Speaker 10>case against him, We'll have to see again. I think

0:26:12.440 --> 0:26:15.840
<v Speaker 10>the Justice Department is going to reformulate these cases. It's

0:26:15.880 --> 0:26:18.560
<v Speaker 10>going to try and establish in some that they have

0:26:18.720 --> 0:26:23.280
<v Speaker 10>the requisite connection to the charges that are listed. And

0:26:23.320 --> 0:26:25.399
<v Speaker 10>this is you know, this is an interesting case because

0:26:25.400 --> 0:26:29.400
<v Speaker 10>it follows on an earlier case dealing with the destruction

0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 10>of a fish. Actually when some fisher fisherman was was

0:26:36.040 --> 0:26:40.359
<v Speaker 10>was picked up for violating laws regarding the kind of

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:43.040
<v Speaker 10>size and the fish he was he was pulling up

0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:45.760
<v Speaker 10>and uh, and he threw he threw back some fish,

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.600
<v Speaker 10>and he was charged under this law. And the question was,

0:26:48.640 --> 0:26:51.560
<v Speaker 10>you know, is a fish a tangible object under the law,

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:56.840
<v Speaker 10>And and they found in fact in that case that

0:26:56.880 --> 0:26:58.800
<v Speaker 10>it wasn't. That it was supposed to be related to

0:26:58.840 --> 0:27:00.960
<v Speaker 10>a document and so forth. So we're sort of seeing

0:27:00.960 --> 0:27:04.080
<v Speaker 10>this as of a piece with that. Kagan was of

0:27:04.480 --> 0:27:07.919
<v Speaker 10>dissent in both in both cases here this one and

0:27:08.000 --> 0:27:11.840
<v Speaker 10>that one, your prior case, and so I think, you know,

0:27:12.200 --> 0:27:14.760
<v Speaker 10>it'll be she's been trying to make the argument that

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:19.120
<v Speaker 10>this otherwise word in there is a broad sweeping term

0:27:19.160 --> 0:27:21.680
<v Speaker 10>that should allow anything that's connected to the obstruction of

0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:24.879
<v Speaker 10>an official proceeding. Then it doesn't have to be related

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:28.520
<v Speaker 10>to a particularly destruction of evidence, and so you know,

0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:31.280
<v Speaker 10>I think, will the Justice Department be able to now

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:35.239
<v Speaker 10>show that they were trying to inhibit the actual uh

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:39.119
<v Speaker 10>counting of the ballots and you know, a physical piece

0:27:39.160 --> 0:27:43.040
<v Speaker 10>of evidence a document. Maybe they will and they may

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:45.760
<v Speaker 10>be able to, but that remains to be seen.

0:27:46.280 --> 0:27:49.879
<v Speaker 2>If they don't or they can't, then what happens with

0:27:49.960 --> 0:27:52.639
<v Speaker 2>all of these defendants, including President Trump.

0:27:54.119 --> 0:27:56.359
<v Speaker 10>Well, I mean just remember that there were multiple charges

0:27:56.440 --> 0:28:00.240
<v Speaker 10>in all of these cases, and so I think there

0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:04.359
<v Speaker 10>are probably any of them who were uh prosecuted simply

0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:06.679
<v Speaker 10>on this on this particular charge. This was you know,

0:28:06.720 --> 0:28:10.159
<v Speaker 10>I think an additional one that that allowed them to

0:28:10.280 --> 0:28:13.320
<v Speaker 10>enhance these sentences, and so I think in this case,

0:28:13.680 --> 0:28:17.399
<v Speaker 10>you know, they will be a potential lessening of the sentences.

0:28:17.840 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 10>Some people will be sentenced to time served, uh and

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:25.200
<v Speaker 10>some people, you know, will perhaps get off altogether because

0:28:25.200 --> 0:28:28.359
<v Speaker 10>they're their charges are so minimal that they will be

0:28:28.440 --> 0:28:31.119
<v Speaker 10>uh uh kind of slap on the wrist. So I

0:28:31.119 --> 0:28:33.040
<v Speaker 10>think it'll be seen, I mean there, it will remain

0:28:33.119 --> 0:28:35.360
<v Speaker 10>to be seen. There'll be a lot of different outcomes

0:28:35.359 --> 0:28:38.800
<v Speaker 10>depending on the level of engagement with with President Trump.

0:28:40.680 --> 0:28:44.080
<v Speaker 10>You know, he obviously had greater involvement in in all

0:28:44.120 --> 0:28:47.880
<v Speaker 10>of the different UH back and forth between members of

0:28:47.880 --> 0:28:52.360
<v Speaker 10>his campaign and variety of people working on on thwarting

0:28:52.960 --> 0:28:59.440
<v Speaker 10>the counting of ballots and UH on January sixth. There there,

0:28:59.480 --> 0:29:01.479
<v Speaker 10>there they may be able to and Jack Smith may

0:29:01.480 --> 0:29:03.400
<v Speaker 10>be able to assemble a greater amount of evidence that

0:29:03.480 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 10>will continue to keep these charges more relevant for Donald

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:06.800
<v Speaker 10>Trump himself.

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:10.840
<v Speaker 5>Can we actually zoom out and could you talk a

0:29:10.840 --> 0:29:13.560
<v Speaker 5>little bit more about the two thousand and two law

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:16.200
<v Speaker 5>that grew out of Enron that's kind of at the

0:29:16.240 --> 0:29:18.720
<v Speaker 5>center of the question this decision.

0:29:20.240 --> 0:29:22.960
<v Speaker 10>Right, Well, you know, it was an interesting in that

0:29:23.040 --> 0:29:29.479
<v Speaker 10>particular situation. You had a statue that was not able

0:29:29.520 --> 0:29:33.840
<v Speaker 10>to capture somebody who actually destroyed the documents and destroyed

0:29:33.840 --> 0:29:40.720
<v Speaker 10>physical evidence, and instead it went after those who encouraged

0:29:41.200 --> 0:29:44.440
<v Speaker 10>or embedded, but it didn't actually go after the direct perpetrator.

0:29:44.520 --> 0:29:47.080
<v Speaker 10>And so what Congress tried to do is strengthen the

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:50.320
<v Speaker 10>law so that it would be broader in scope and

0:29:50.960 --> 0:29:54.440
<v Speaker 10>enable the prosecution of those who'd actually been directly involved

0:29:54.480 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 10>in trying to evade.

0:29:59.200 --> 0:29:59.840
<v Speaker 9>Prosecution.

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:05.120
<v Speaker 10>So it let the big fish, so to speak, off,

0:30:05.400 --> 0:30:09.280
<v Speaker 10>and those who are less responsible could be prosecuted. So

0:30:09.280 --> 0:30:14.600
<v Speaker 10>they tried to fix that, and this this irony perhaps

0:30:14.680 --> 0:30:16.760
<v Speaker 10>is that, at least according to the Supreme Court, they

0:30:16.760 --> 0:30:17.920
<v Speaker 10>didn't do a very good job of it.

0:30:18.080 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Caroline, we appreciate it. Thank you for walking us

0:30:21.280 --> 0:30:23.840
<v Speaker 2>through all of this. Caroline Frederickson, Senior Fellow at Brennan

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:27.200
<v Speaker 2>and strategic counselor on Democracy and Power at Open Markets Institute.

0:30:27.360 --> 0:30:30.120
<v Speaker 2>The Supreme Court is done for the day. They're coming

0:30:30.160 --> 0:30:32.440
<v Speaker 2>back on Monday, and the Supreme Court will be issuing

0:30:32.440 --> 0:30:36.120
<v Speaker 2>the Trump Community ruling on Monday around ten am. In

0:30:36.200 --> 0:30:38.600
<v Speaker 2>that hour, we are going to have live coverage of that,

0:30:39.160 --> 0:30:41.680
<v Speaker 2>so definitely stay tuned with us for that.

0:30:43.480 --> 0:30:47.360
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

0:30:47.440 --> 0:30:50.120
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and

0:30:50.120 --> 0:30:53.200
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:58.640
<v Speaker 1>wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:30:58.040 --> 0:31:00.840
<v Speaker 2>With Radio Malex Deel Longside Emily, who just got a

0:31:00.960 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 2>nice dose of Supreme Court awesomeness on her Friday. She

0:31:04.200 --> 0:31:06.800
<v Speaker 2>helps me out. Paulsmini sitting on a beach off today.

0:31:07.160 --> 0:31:09.200
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Intelligence. We bring you all the top

0:31:09.240 --> 0:31:11.520
<v Speaker 2>news in business and finance and economics. There are lens

0:31:11.560 --> 0:31:14.400
<v Speaker 2>of our Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover two thousand companies

0:31:14.560 --> 0:31:17.640
<v Speaker 2>and one hundred and thirty industries worldwide. Let's go to

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 2>one of them right now, Nathan, Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior

0:31:20.440 --> 0:31:23.440
<v Speaker 2>policy analysts. Lots of stuff happening in DC. We are

0:31:23.560 --> 0:31:26.000
<v Speaker 2>keeping an eye on those Supreme Court decisions, but we

0:31:26.040 --> 0:31:29.720
<v Speaker 2>cannot lose sight of the complete disaster that was yesterday

0:31:29.760 --> 0:31:32.720
<v Speaker 2>and that debate between President Trump and President Biden. I

0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:35.600
<v Speaker 2>think the big question today, Nathan, is what does it

0:31:35.680 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 2>look like to get Biden off the ticket? Like legally,

0:31:38.880 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 2>how does that actually happen?

0:31:41.120 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 11>So it's going to have to come from the President himself.

0:31:43.680 --> 0:31:45.040
<v Speaker 11>I mean, this is going to be a decision that

0:31:45.080 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 11>he's going to have to make, and I think that,

0:31:46.880 --> 0:31:49.719
<v Speaker 11>you know, we'll see over the weekend as he's fundraising

0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:52.480
<v Speaker 11>and meeting with advisors. But as of this morning, he

0:31:52.560 --> 0:31:54.880
<v Speaker 11>was even saying to journalists that he is going to

0:31:54.920 --> 0:31:57.840
<v Speaker 11>be on the ticket and he's looking forward to a

0:31:57.840 --> 0:32:00.600
<v Speaker 11>second debate in September. Now, the way would work is

0:32:00.640 --> 0:32:03.160
<v Speaker 11>that if President Biden were to decide that he's not

0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 11>going to run, then we go to the convention and

0:32:05.840 --> 0:32:07.840
<v Speaker 11>the delegates would have to figure it out.

0:32:08.160 --> 0:32:08.360
<v Speaker 3>Now.

0:32:08.520 --> 0:32:10.840
<v Speaker 11>President Biden already has enough delegates to secure it in

0:32:10.840 --> 0:32:13.520
<v Speaker 11>the nomination, but if he were to say I'm not

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:16.200
<v Speaker 11>going to run, he could release those delegates to then

0:32:16.280 --> 0:32:19.160
<v Speaker 11>vote for whoever. But ultimately then it would become a

0:32:19.360 --> 0:32:22.520
<v Speaker 11>race of who wants to be the nominee for three

0:32:22.600 --> 0:32:25.640
<v Speaker 11>months before the election and trying to take down President Trump.

0:32:25.800 --> 0:32:28.080
<v Speaker 11>It's gonna be very messy. You would have Kamala Harris

0:32:28.120 --> 0:32:30.240
<v Speaker 11>the vice president. You have a lot of governors probably

0:32:30.240 --> 0:32:32.960
<v Speaker 11>thinking about it. But if this were to happen, and

0:32:33.000 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 11>it would happens soon, it's gonna be something that we

0:32:35.840 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 11>haven't seen since Lyndon Johnson in nineteen sixty eight.

0:32:39.360 --> 0:32:44.760
<v Speaker 5>Nathan, how soon must a decision be made? It's almost July.

0:32:45.200 --> 0:32:47.320
<v Speaker 5>Biden doesn't seem to have a lot of time here.

0:32:47.880 --> 0:32:49.760
<v Speaker 11>No, so, but he does have the advantage that the

0:32:49.800 --> 0:32:52.320
<v Speaker 11>Democrats are going second in terms of the conventions, So

0:32:52.320 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 11>the Republicans are meeting in July fifteenth, the Democrats aren't

0:32:55.520 --> 0:33:00.320
<v Speaker 11>meeting until August, so really before the convention, there's a

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:02.280
<v Speaker 11>lot of bit of time in terms of least the

0:33:02.400 --> 0:33:04.560
<v Speaker 11>logistics of getting on the ballot. If this were to

0:33:04.560 --> 0:33:07.680
<v Speaker 11>happen after the election, Essentially Democrats would have to go

0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:09.440
<v Speaker 11>to the polls and vote for Joe Biden, knowing that

0:33:09.480 --> 0:33:12.440
<v Speaker 11>they would get somebody else. But if President Biden were

0:33:12.480 --> 0:33:15.440
<v Speaker 11>to decide tomorrow that he's decided he's not going to run,

0:33:15.800 --> 0:33:18.680
<v Speaker 11>you're going to see a scramble amongst the Democratic Party

0:33:18.760 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 11>to try and figure out, Okay, is Kamala Harris the

0:33:21.400 --> 0:33:24.720
<v Speaker 11>next nominee. You know, she doesn't pulling, She isn't pulling

0:33:24.720 --> 0:33:26.720
<v Speaker 11>all that well against President Trump on a one on

0:33:26.720 --> 0:33:30.200
<v Speaker 11>one race. You know, is Governor Newsome, Governor Pritzker, Governor Whitmer.

0:33:30.400 --> 0:33:32.240
<v Speaker 11>You know, the governors I think would be able to

0:33:32.280 --> 0:33:34.640
<v Speaker 11>put their hands up there and say we're interested. So

0:33:34.720 --> 0:33:37.280
<v Speaker 11>you would almost have like this like uh, you know

0:33:37.400 --> 0:33:41.920
<v Speaker 11>reality TV show, if you will, trying to fre exactly.

0:33:42.040 --> 0:33:44.960
<v Speaker 11>And then ultimately it comes down to a vote in Chicago,

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:47.960
<v Speaker 11>which you know the last time, you know, you know,

0:33:48.360 --> 0:33:50.800
<v Speaker 11>Chicago obviously doesn't have the best reputation when it comes

0:33:50.840 --> 0:33:55.360
<v Speaker 11>to democratic conventions and open conventions, but you know, it

0:33:55.360 --> 0:33:56.600
<v Speaker 11>would be quite a show in August.

0:33:56.840 --> 0:33:57.800
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Nathan, what.

0:33:57.800 --> 0:33:59.520
<v Speaker 4>Do you think is realistically going to happen?

0:34:00.960 --> 0:34:03.280
<v Speaker 11>So look, this decision is going to come from President

0:34:03.360 --> 0:34:06.200
<v Speaker 11>Biden and President Biden himself. I mean, it is extremely

0:34:06.320 --> 0:34:10.960
<v Speaker 11>difficult for a politician, Republican or Democrat, who has served

0:34:10.960 --> 0:34:14.160
<v Speaker 11>their entire life and is used to being a fighter

0:34:14.560 --> 0:34:16.359
<v Speaker 11>to then say, you know what, I'm going to take

0:34:16.400 --> 0:34:18.239
<v Speaker 11>a step back and it's time for me to move on.

0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:20.359
<v Speaker 11>And so you know, we've seen this with a lot

0:34:20.400 --> 0:34:22.960
<v Speaker 11>of other politicians, both in Congress and you know, the

0:34:23.000 --> 0:34:26.839
<v Speaker 11>executive branch. Now, I think it comes down to two things. One,

0:34:26.920 --> 0:34:29.640
<v Speaker 11>if President Biden believes that last night was just because

0:34:29.640 --> 0:34:32.080
<v Speaker 11>of the cold and that he can then change the

0:34:32.160 --> 0:34:34.160
<v Speaker 11>narrative in the next few months, he's going to stay in.

0:34:34.560 --> 0:34:37.160
<v Speaker 11>If there's something more serious that President Biden begins to

0:34:37.200 --> 0:34:39.560
<v Speaker 11>believe that there is something that you know, that this

0:34:39.640 --> 0:34:42.600
<v Speaker 11>is an issue, then I think eventually we may say

0:34:43.160 --> 0:34:44.400
<v Speaker 11>we're going to step out.

0:34:44.560 --> 0:34:46.279
<v Speaker 4>All right, Nathan, we got to leave it there.

0:34:46.360 --> 0:34:48.720
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for that, Nathan Dean Bloomberg Intelligence

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:49.960
<v Speaker 2>Senior Policy Analystic.

0:34:51.520 --> 0:34:55.400
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:58.600
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and and

0:34:58.760 --> 0:35:01.439
<v Speaker 1>royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business at You can also

0:35:01.520 --> 0:35:05.000
<v Speaker 1>listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

0:35:05.400 --> 0:35:08.160
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:35:09.360 --> 0:35:11.279
<v Speaker 2>We do want to keep you updated on the Supreme Court.

0:35:11.320 --> 0:35:13.480
<v Speaker 2>We did get run one ruling that's coming out. The

0:35:13.560 --> 0:35:17.920
<v Speaker 2>US Supreme Court reinstated in Oregon city's law banning public camping,

0:35:17.960 --> 0:35:21.000
<v Speaker 2>and this is its first ruling on homelessness in about

0:35:21.040 --> 0:35:23.120
<v Speaker 2>four decades. We're going to get you much more on

0:35:23.120 --> 0:35:25.680
<v Speaker 2>this with June Grasso in just a moment. Let's go

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:28.680
<v Speaker 2>back to Nike and just the level of the stock

0:35:28.800 --> 0:35:29.960
<v Speaker 2>drop that we're seeing here.

0:35:30.000 --> 0:35:30.359
<v Speaker 4>Put him.

0:35:30.400 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 2>Goyle, Senior US e Commerce and retail analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence,

0:35:34.640 --> 0:35:37.960
<v Speaker 2>joins us. Now put him, I guess what would a

0:35:38.040 --> 0:35:41.239
<v Speaker 2>turnaround for this company at this point look like and

0:35:41.280 --> 0:35:43.080
<v Speaker 2>how long would something like that take?

0:35:44.640 --> 0:35:47.520
<v Speaker 7>Sure, So I think it's all product dependent. They have

0:35:47.800 --> 0:35:50.200
<v Speaker 7>introduced a new product as a recent and that product

0:35:50.280 --> 0:35:53.439
<v Speaker 7>has done well, especially in their air franchise. I think

0:35:53.440 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 7>it's a matter of time. Nike really took its foot

0:35:56.640 --> 0:35:59.400
<v Speaker 7>off the pedal when it came to innovation since the pandemic,

0:35:59.760 --> 0:36:02.800
<v Speaker 7>and now it's just starting to push the pedal harder.

0:36:03.400 --> 0:36:05.640
<v Speaker 7>It won't happen overnight. We think it's going to take

0:36:05.640 --> 0:36:08.279
<v Speaker 7>at least six to twelve months. So this year their

0:36:08.280 --> 0:36:11.319
<v Speaker 7>fiscal twenty twenty five will be a wash year. It

0:36:11.360 --> 0:36:13.880
<v Speaker 7>will be down, and I think we will have to

0:36:13.920 --> 0:36:16.239
<v Speaker 7>look past that in another six months. But I do

0:36:16.360 --> 0:36:19.680
<v Speaker 7>think the Nike has the ability to bring back innovation.

0:36:20.040 --> 0:36:23.239
<v Speaker 7>It is the largest at leisure brand, and while it

0:36:23.320 --> 0:36:27.520
<v Speaker 7>has lost shared at Hooka on and Running and Adidas

0:36:27.560 --> 0:36:30.040
<v Speaker 7>in the lifestyle category, if they can get the right

0:36:30.120 --> 0:36:32.680
<v Speaker 7>product out, they can do well. Their dunks for a

0:36:32.760 --> 0:36:34.239
<v Speaker 7>huge success, but they need more.

0:36:35.040 --> 0:36:38.400
<v Speaker 5>Can you talk about how much of the movement that

0:36:38.400 --> 0:36:41.480
<v Speaker 5>we're seeing in Nike today has to do with company

0:36:41.880 --> 0:36:44.440
<v Speaker 5>specific news and how much of it has to do

0:36:44.600 --> 0:36:48.040
<v Speaker 5>with traders kind of telling us a signal about the

0:36:48.080 --> 0:36:52.520
<v Speaker 5>consumer maybe being weaker than perhaps the numbers that we

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:54.600
<v Speaker 5>got this morning, the ego data that we got this morning,

0:36:54.640 --> 0:36:55.960
<v Speaker 5>suggesting sure.

0:36:56.520 --> 0:36:58.560
<v Speaker 7>I would say that the bulk of the move that

0:36:58.600 --> 0:37:01.880
<v Speaker 7>you're seeing today is company specific, it's not the macro.

0:37:02.200 --> 0:37:04.480
<v Speaker 7>When I look at the at leisure space, there's a

0:37:04.520 --> 0:37:07.880
<v Speaker 7>lot of tailwinds in there, especially the sporting events. We

0:37:07.920 --> 0:37:10.680
<v Speaker 7>have the paras Olympics coming up, and there is still

0:37:10.760 --> 0:37:14.640
<v Speaker 7>brand Heat for sports to be outdoors. That provides a

0:37:14.680 --> 0:37:17.480
<v Speaker 7>benefit to these at leisure brands. So I'd say, while

0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:20.399
<v Speaker 7>the consumer is being picky and they're choosy, they're still

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:22.840
<v Speaker 7>spending where they want to spend and if you have

0:37:22.920 --> 0:37:24.440
<v Speaker 7>the product, they will come to you.

0:37:25.800 --> 0:37:31.040
<v Speaker 2>But nevertheless, why is it going so poorly? Like they

0:37:31.040 --> 0:37:32.960
<v Speaker 2>want to sell direct to consumer and like not do

0:37:33.000 --> 0:37:36.680
<v Speaker 2>the retail stores as much. But even that strategy didn't work.

0:37:36.920 --> 0:37:39.640
<v Speaker 2>I mean, how do they fix a problem that has

0:37:39.680 --> 0:37:40.799
<v Speaker 2>so many tentacles.

0:37:42.560 --> 0:37:45.200
<v Speaker 7>The problem is at the core. The problem is at

0:37:45.239 --> 0:37:48.120
<v Speaker 7>the product. So if they can fix the product, I

0:37:48.160 --> 0:37:51.759
<v Speaker 7>think the problems almost resolve in themselves. It's not that

0:37:51.840 --> 0:37:55.480
<v Speaker 7>Nike has lost its brand Heat. They still in basketball

0:37:55.560 --> 0:37:59.080
<v Speaker 7>are the most preferred brand, They have the best sports flares,

0:37:59.160 --> 0:38:03.080
<v Speaker 7>they have the highest endorsers. It's really in lifestyle where

0:38:03.080 --> 0:38:05.200
<v Speaker 7>they're struggling and they've lost here, and you could say

0:38:05.239 --> 0:38:07.759
<v Speaker 7>in running too. Those are the two categories that they

0:38:07.800 --> 0:38:10.560
<v Speaker 7>need to bring forward more innovation. So I think the

0:38:10.880 --> 0:38:15.000
<v Speaker 7>answer to their problem is product. It's innovation and Nike

0:38:15.239 --> 0:38:17.520
<v Speaker 7>just needs to qush harder. And we'll have to watch

0:38:17.560 --> 0:38:20.440
<v Speaker 7>execution to see over the next six months if they

0:38:20.480 --> 0:38:22.520
<v Speaker 7>can really deliver on what they're promising.

0:38:22.719 --> 0:38:25.640
<v Speaker 2>So Emily, Wait, so you do have Nike's or you don't.

0:38:25.880 --> 0:38:27.800
<v Speaker 2>It's the Adidas ones that you don't have. The Zambas

0:38:27.840 --> 0:38:28.239
<v Speaker 2>you don't have.

0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:32.000
<v Speaker 5>I don't have the Sambus, but it really is incredible.

0:38:32.520 --> 0:38:35.200
<v Speaker 5>I mean I like to think that I follow like

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:40.440
<v Speaker 5>sneaker trends, and the Adidas Szambus is a lifestyle sneaker

0:38:40.480 --> 0:38:43.000
<v Speaker 5>that is so popular and has really driven a lot

0:38:43.000 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 5>of Adidas's growth. Punam are you saying that Nike kind

0:38:46.160 --> 0:38:50.200
<v Speaker 5>of has to come up with a product similar to that,

0:38:50.280 --> 0:38:53.120
<v Speaker 5>kind of a product that everyone on the street is

0:38:53.480 --> 0:38:55.439
<v Speaker 5>I guess obsessed with and wants to wear.

0:38:55.680 --> 0:38:56.680
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:38:56.719 --> 0:38:59.320
<v Speaker 7>Absolutely, and they did right. They had the Air Forces,

0:38:59.320 --> 0:39:02.120
<v Speaker 7>which were a life style shoe. They had their Dungks,

0:39:02.120 --> 0:39:03.600
<v Speaker 7>which became a lifestyle shoe.

0:39:03.760 --> 0:39:04.440
<v Speaker 9>But they need more.

0:39:04.480 --> 0:39:06.719
<v Speaker 7>They need to continue to keep innovating because now they're

0:39:06.760 --> 0:39:10.040
<v Speaker 7>camping those tough comparisons and they just need more innovation.

0:39:10.600 --> 0:39:13.040
<v Speaker 7>So it's really really getting the product right here.

0:39:13.560 --> 0:39:16.240
<v Speaker 2>I just like, how much more can you innovate a sneaker?

0:39:16.480 --> 0:39:16.600
<v Speaker 4>Like?

0:39:16.920 --> 0:39:18.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, this is such a dumb question. I don't

0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:21.239
<v Speaker 2>we're sneakers I have a weird foot. I gotta wear bionics,

0:39:21.400 --> 0:39:24.120
<v Speaker 2>like you know, my feet are old feet. But I mean,

0:39:24.239 --> 0:39:25.840
<v Speaker 2>how hard is it to innovate a sneaker?

0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:29.640
<v Speaker 7>Well, I mean the palm was not really that innovative, right,

0:39:29.680 --> 0:39:31.840
<v Speaker 7>I mean I grew up wearing salm as of the kids.

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:35.960
<v Speaker 7>So it's about just getting people comfortable and getting the

0:39:36.000 --> 0:39:38.879
<v Speaker 7>trend right, getting the look right, to feel right, and

0:39:38.920 --> 0:39:42.200
<v Speaker 7>being where the customer is and really bringing your brand

0:39:42.239 --> 0:39:47.160
<v Speaker 7>forward with those customers. Look, Nike is still the largest

0:39:46.880 --> 0:39:50.799
<v Speaker 7>active were brand, It's still the dominant player in sneakers,

0:39:51.160 --> 0:39:54.439
<v Speaker 7>and Hoka and On are very small compared to Nike,

0:39:54.600 --> 0:39:57.920
<v Speaker 7>so when they grow double digits, it's a small fraction

0:39:58.520 --> 0:40:01.440
<v Speaker 7>of what Nike's sales are. So as I really do

0:40:01.560 --> 0:40:05.240
<v Speaker 7>think that they can. They can bring something forward and

0:40:05.480 --> 0:40:07.920
<v Speaker 7>really do well. If they get the product, and remember

0:40:07.920 --> 0:40:10.400
<v Speaker 7>they also have to endorse the product right, the product

0:40:10.560 --> 0:40:14.279
<v Speaker 7>could come out. But then they need athletes, they need celebrities,

0:40:14.280 --> 0:40:18.240
<v Speaker 7>They need influencers to make that product develop grand heat

0:40:18.280 --> 0:40:21.760
<v Speaker 7>and catch steam into the marketplace, because that's how it works,

0:40:21.800 --> 0:40:22.799
<v Speaker 7>that's how products selve.

0:40:22.960 --> 0:40:25.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they need Emlin Graffeto. I think it's cool like

0:40:25.239 --> 0:40:26.719
<v Speaker 2>her and all her buddies. She's going to be like,

0:40:26.800 --> 0:40:29.200
<v Speaker 2>my cool like person.

0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:31.520
<v Speaker 4>Like who knows supports?

0:40:31.640 --> 0:40:34.200
<v Speaker 2>You have weird feed Emily, what is it?

0:40:34.200 --> 0:40:37.480
<v Speaker 9>It's a life changing event with your sneaker or lifestyle, a.

0:40:37.880 --> 0:40:42.319
<v Speaker 2>Life lifestyle sneakers like her, not her, she can't wear those,

0:40:42.320 --> 0:40:44.399
<v Speaker 2>but like it's just like that's what all her cool

0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:47.560
<v Speaker 2>friends wear. I have planner fasciitis, like you wear to

0:40:47.600 --> 0:40:49.480
<v Speaker 2>hang out as opposed to a running sneaker.

0:40:49.600 --> 0:40:51.000
<v Speaker 5>That's going to look more like.

0:40:51.000 --> 0:40:52.319
<v Speaker 2>A John has two pairs of shoes.

0:40:52.400 --> 0:40:53.520
<v Speaker 4>So let's just keep that in mind.

0:40:54.960 --> 0:40:58.839
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:40:58.920 --> 0:41:02.440
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am met on applecar Play and Android

0:41:02.480 --> 0:41:05.640
<v Speaker 1>Auto with a Bloomberg business. You can also listen live

0:41:05.760 --> 0:41:08.920
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0:41:09.000 --> 0:41:11.600
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0:41:13.040 --> 0:41:15.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's get to what's happening in the bond market.

0:41:15.120 --> 0:41:17.040
<v Speaker 2>You're right, yields have moved higher despite the fact we

0:41:17.080 --> 0:41:19.560
<v Speaker 2>got that PCE that seemed to be interpreted as okay,

0:41:19.600 --> 0:41:22.920
<v Speaker 2>the Fed can cut It's okay. Inflation is coming down,

0:41:23.400 --> 0:41:26.080
<v Speaker 2>spending an income is hanging in Okay, Danielle de Martino

0:41:26.120 --> 0:41:30.000
<v Speaker 2>Booth is CEO and chief strategist for QI Research. Hey,

0:41:30.040 --> 0:41:33.600
<v Speaker 2>what was your interpretation, Danielle about the data and then

0:41:33.719 --> 0:41:35.560
<v Speaker 2>what we're seeing in the bond market right now.

0:41:36.920 --> 0:41:39.719
<v Speaker 12>So, you know, a thanks for having me this morning.

0:41:39.800 --> 0:41:42.080
<v Speaker 12>It's great to be with you again. And this is

0:41:42.120 --> 0:41:45.200
<v Speaker 12>a real head scratcher for me. You know, unrounded zero

0:41:45.360 --> 0:41:50.200
<v Speaker 12>point zero eight percent increase in the core the Fed's

0:41:50.440 --> 0:41:53.319
<v Speaker 12>year end target is two point eight percent for the

0:41:53.360 --> 0:41:56.680
<v Speaker 12>core PCE, it's down to two point six percent. Same

0:41:56.719 --> 0:41:59.399
<v Speaker 12>with its unemployment target for the end of the year

0:41:59.440 --> 0:42:00.520
<v Speaker 12>four point z z or percent.

0:42:00.560 --> 0:42:02.839
<v Speaker 9>That's where the unemployment rate is right now.

0:42:02.880 --> 0:42:05.800
<v Speaker 12>So it would seem to be, you know, a green

0:42:05.880 --> 0:42:09.000
<v Speaker 12>light for the Fed to cut rates here. And we

0:42:09.040 --> 0:42:12.360
<v Speaker 12>had University of Michigan see an appreciable decline in inflation

0:42:12.440 --> 0:42:14.440
<v Speaker 12>expectations in both the short.

0:42:14.200 --> 0:42:14.919
<v Speaker 9>And long term.

0:42:15.040 --> 0:42:18.480
<v Speaker 12>So go figure on why bond yields are up. That's

0:42:18.520 --> 0:42:19.520
<v Speaker 12>my honest answer here.

0:42:20.440 --> 0:42:23.200
<v Speaker 5>So what about when you look to the rest of

0:42:23.320 --> 0:42:26.120
<v Speaker 5>the year, we're just at the halfway mark. What do

0:42:26.200 --> 0:42:29.160
<v Speaker 5>you really see is going to be drying the cross

0:42:29.239 --> 0:42:33.279
<v Speaker 5>asset market action, So you know.

0:42:33.719 --> 0:42:36.319
<v Speaker 12>There's a real tug of war there are a lot

0:42:36.360 --> 0:42:38.960
<v Speaker 12>of good observations being made right now. But the K

0:42:39.200 --> 0:42:42.439
<v Speaker 12>shaped economy, the haves and the have nots. You see

0:42:42.480 --> 0:42:44.840
<v Speaker 12>that when you get the second print for the University

0:42:44.840 --> 0:42:48.719
<v Speaker 12>of Michigan, and that you get tersiles of income broken out,

0:42:49.320 --> 0:42:53.280
<v Speaker 12>and you see that there's a lot of anxiety among

0:42:53.320 --> 0:42:56.440
<v Speaker 12>the lowest income earners. We've got an institutional client at

0:42:56.480 --> 0:42:59.880
<v Speaker 12>QI who was saying that a Tampa food bank is

0:43:00.080 --> 0:43:04.000
<v Speaker 12>on from twenty thousand to forty thousand per month households,

0:43:04.040 --> 0:43:06.640
<v Speaker 12>that it's serving that a lot of these nonprofits are

0:43:06.880 --> 0:43:08.759
<v Speaker 12>just overwhelmed.

0:43:08.200 --> 0:43:09.280
<v Speaker 9>With the amount of demand.

0:43:09.600 --> 0:43:12.439
<v Speaker 12>As we're seeing again, the difference between twenty twenty three

0:43:12.440 --> 0:43:15.120
<v Speaker 12>and twenty twenty four is twenty twenty three, we're really

0:43:15.120 --> 0:43:17.720
<v Speaker 12>white collar layoffs six to nine months of severance.

0:43:18.120 --> 0:43:20.280
<v Speaker 9>And then you hear from the likes of Walgreens.

0:43:19.880 --> 0:43:23.719
<v Speaker 12>Yesterday, you know, up to maybe sixty thousand jobs in

0:43:23.800 --> 0:43:26.960
<v Speaker 12>peril there with all of those stores closing these types

0:43:27.000 --> 0:43:27.800
<v Speaker 12>of job cuts.

0:43:29.000 --> 0:43:30.920
<v Speaker 9>The people who lose their jobs only get six to

0:43:31.000 --> 0:43:33.600
<v Speaker 9>nine weeks of severance. So it's a huge difference.

0:43:34.560 --> 0:43:37.239
<v Speaker 2>So fair enough, Okay, So if we just sort of

0:43:37.239 --> 0:43:39.120
<v Speaker 2>go with yield, are doing stuff, we're end of the

0:43:39.120 --> 0:43:41.680
<v Speaker 2>second quarter, so things are moving, et cetera. Do you

0:43:41.680 --> 0:43:44.440
<v Speaker 2>think the data that we got today can green light

0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:46.040
<v Speaker 2>a cut from the FED? And when do you think

0:43:46.080 --> 0:43:46.920
<v Speaker 2>that could be green lit?

0:43:48.800 --> 0:43:49.160
<v Speaker 9>I do.

0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:52.120
<v Speaker 12>We have seen revisions out of the state of California

0:43:52.160 --> 0:43:56.200
<v Speaker 12>that show that net job losses through the second half

0:43:56.239 --> 0:43:58.120
<v Speaker 12>of twenty twenty three, the last six months of twenty

0:43:58.120 --> 0:44:01.120
<v Speaker 12>three were negative. We're going to get several revisions out

0:44:01.160 --> 0:44:05.760
<v Speaker 12>of the Census Bureau for payrolls before even the July

0:44:06.000 --> 0:44:09.240
<v Speaker 12>FED meeting, and certainly a very large one in August

0:44:09.320 --> 0:44:12.239
<v Speaker 12>before the September meeting. So I'm looking at September as

0:44:12.280 --> 0:44:14.640
<v Speaker 12>the definitive launch date for FED rate cuts.

0:44:15.719 --> 0:44:20.200
<v Speaker 5>Does the equity market need a rate cut in September?

0:44:20.239 --> 0:44:24.200
<v Speaker 5>Because here we are, we're at all time highs today

0:44:24.719 --> 0:44:26.520
<v Speaker 5>and we still have, you know, yields moving a little

0:44:26.520 --> 0:44:30.880
<v Speaker 5>bit higher. But I'm just wondering if we don't get

0:44:30.960 --> 0:44:34.520
<v Speaker 5>that cut, maybe it's pushed out even further, maybe into

0:44:34.560 --> 0:44:38.400
<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty five. Does it tank stocks you think? Or

0:44:38.440 --> 0:44:41.600
<v Speaker 5>are we able to kind of stay here at these

0:44:41.640 --> 0:44:44.399
<v Speaker 5>all time highs and continue chugging along for the rest

0:44:44.400 --> 0:44:44.839
<v Speaker 5>of the year.

0:44:46.320 --> 0:44:50.080
<v Speaker 12>I think the stock market does hang in there. Historically speaking,

0:44:50.360 --> 0:44:54.800
<v Speaker 12>until the FED actually cuts rates, stocks are very well behaved.

0:44:55.120 --> 0:44:58.520
<v Speaker 12>It's only after the FED actually makes that rate cut,

0:44:58.760 --> 0:45:02.279
<v Speaker 12>no jaw boning, no quantitative tightening or quantitative using, but

0:45:02.360 --> 0:45:06.200
<v Speaker 12>actual rate cuts that start, then you see stocks correct.

0:45:06.520 --> 0:45:08.080
<v Speaker 9>Then you see stocks decline.

0:45:08.280 --> 0:45:11.560
<v Speaker 12>And that's again historically back in the post war era,

0:45:12.080 --> 0:45:13.600
<v Speaker 12>how the script is played out.

0:45:14.400 --> 0:45:16.960
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Danielle, walk us through what you're expecting for jobs

0:45:16.960 --> 0:45:20.640
<v Speaker 2>Friday next week, so we get the PCE. It seems

0:45:20.680 --> 0:45:23.680
<v Speaker 2>to be okay. The infleetion story seems to be adjusting right,

0:45:23.719 --> 0:45:27.439
<v Speaker 2>that super core is coming down. The data this week

0:45:27.520 --> 0:45:30.360
<v Speaker 2>was very lumpy, not great, particularly when it comes to housing.

0:45:31.080 --> 0:45:35.560
<v Speaker 2>You heard Mary Daily talking about worries about growth for example,

0:45:35.960 --> 0:45:39.120
<v Speaker 2>and we had also worries about are we actually restrictive

0:45:39.200 --> 0:45:41.120
<v Speaker 2>enough and if we're not, then that could really spur

0:45:41.200 --> 0:45:44.400
<v Speaker 2>more growth issues. What reflection do you think we're going

0:45:44.440 --> 0:45:46.439
<v Speaker 2>to get in that in the jobs from number next week?

0:45:48.040 --> 0:45:52.000
<v Speaker 12>So I would be surprised, just on a pure databasis

0:45:52.040 --> 0:45:55.880
<v Speaker 12>if we didn't see a little bit more weakness at

0:45:55.880 --> 0:45:58.759
<v Speaker 12>the margin in the jobs data. The survey week for

0:45:59.440 --> 0:46:03.680
<v Speaker 12>non farm hayrolls did see an uptick in both initial

0:46:03.840 --> 0:46:07.680
<v Speaker 12>and continuing claims. Continuing claims in that survey week rising

0:46:07.680 --> 0:46:11.080
<v Speaker 12>to the highest since twenty twenty one, and that is

0:46:11.160 --> 0:46:13.840
<v Speaker 12>when the survey data are collected by their Buer of

0:46:13.920 --> 0:46:16.840
<v Speaker 12>Labor statistics. So I would expect to see this weakness

0:46:16.880 --> 0:46:19.279
<v Speaker 12>again a lot of the layoffs we're seeing. The reason

0:46:19.320 --> 0:46:21.720
<v Speaker 12>we're seeing the four week moving average and initial jobless

0:46:21.719 --> 0:46:25.799
<v Speaker 12>claims steadily march upward over the last few months is

0:46:25.840 --> 0:46:29.319
<v Speaker 12>because the people who are losing their jobs get a

0:46:29.480 --> 0:46:33.400
<v Speaker 12>very short period of pay from their former employer before

0:46:33.160 --> 0:46:35.280
<v Speaker 12>they're filing that initial jobless claim.

0:46:35.360 --> 0:46:38.359
<v Speaker 9>We're seeing that of very steadily rise this year.

0:46:39.360 --> 0:46:43.240
<v Speaker 5>So that's the macro I want to go super micro maybe,

0:46:43.239 --> 0:46:45.960
<v Speaker 5>and we don't have that much time left, Danielle, But

0:46:46.560 --> 0:46:50.160
<v Speaker 5>what do you make of the volatility in these pet stocks?

0:46:50.280 --> 0:46:53.960
<v Speaker 5>After Roaring Kitty comes on Twitter he posts a picture

0:46:54.160 --> 0:46:58.319
<v Speaker 5>of a dog. I mean, just talk about what does

0:46:58.360 --> 0:47:01.200
<v Speaker 5>this tell you about the market that we're in that

0:47:01.280 --> 0:47:04.640
<v Speaker 5>we're still seeing He didn't even mention pet COO, and

0:47:04.760 --> 0:47:07.600
<v Speaker 5>yet the stock kind of went crazy after his tweet.

0:47:08.680 --> 0:47:10.319
<v Speaker 12>So again, I think this goes back to the point

0:47:10.360 --> 0:47:12.440
<v Speaker 12>that I made earlier, and that would be one that

0:47:13.480 --> 0:47:17.320
<v Speaker 12>we have not seen any capitulation in this stock market.

0:47:17.600 --> 0:47:21.400
<v Speaker 12>The fervor to speculate is still very much alive, what

0:47:21.440 --> 0:47:23.359
<v Speaker 12>we call animal spirits.

0:47:23.120 --> 0:47:24.319
<v Speaker 9>It's still out there.

0:47:24.360 --> 0:47:27.080
<v Speaker 12>People are still ready to gamble on the stock market,

0:47:27.320 --> 0:47:30.440
<v Speaker 12>as if the pandemic just hit the shores. So it

0:47:31.080 --> 0:47:33.840
<v Speaker 12>again shows you that there's a great, big willingness to

0:47:33.880 --> 0:47:34.399
<v Speaker 12>take risk.

0:47:35.200 --> 0:47:38.160
<v Speaker 2>Well said Emily's quoting you right now for an article.

0:47:38.200 --> 0:47:40.600
<v Speaker 2>She was very excited to ask you that question. Yeah,

0:47:40.640 --> 0:47:42.360
<v Speaker 2>and then you need it's too much liquidity. It's a

0:47:42.400 --> 0:47:44.840
<v Speaker 2>lot of cool liquidity out there, even if that upside

0:47:44.880 --> 0:47:47.880
<v Speaker 2>didn't continue into today. All right, Danielle, We really appreciate

0:47:47.960 --> 0:47:50.520
<v Speaker 2>Danielle de Martino, Booth CEO and chief strategist for a

0:47:50.600 --> 0:47:53.000
<v Speaker 2>QI Research, joining us there.

0:47:53.120 --> 0:47:57.640
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