WEBVTT - The Robotaxi Verdict Is In 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:07.400 --> 0:00:14.800 We do expect actually to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:24.040 in Texas and California next year, and that's obviously that's 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:26.800 with the Model three in Model Y, and then we 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.680 expect to be in production with the cyber cap, which 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:39.239 is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably Well, 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:40.960 I tend to be a little optimist with the time frames, 0:00:42.800 --> 0:00:50.280 but in twenty twenty six, so yeah, before twenty twenty seven, 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:51.080 let me put it that way. 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:55.440 Well, Elon Musk is now the richest person on the planet. 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.800 More than half the satellites in space are owned and 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:00.680 controlled by one man. 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:02.840 Well, he's a legitimate super genius. 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:03.960 I mean legitimate. 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.800 He says. He's always voted for Democrats, but this year 0:01:06.840 --> 0:01:07.600 it will be different. 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:08.600 He'll vote Republican. 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.360 There is a reason the US government is so reliant 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:11.760 on him. 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:15.399 Alon Musk is a scam artist and he's done nothing. 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:26.360 Anything he does, he's fascinating people. Welcome to Elon, Inc, 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:31.720 Bloomberg's weekly podcast about Elon Musk. It's Friday, October eleventh. 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.720 I'm your host, David Papadopolis. We are here with the 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:41.440 special episode because, as you just heard elon unveiled last 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:47.280 night the Cyber Cab, I am joined by Craig Trudell, 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:53.720 our Global Autos czar in London. Craig, welcome, Thanks for 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:58.560 having me. Now, Craig, I slept through this thing. You 0:01:58.680 --> 0:02:01.600 got up stupid or earlier on. I mean, the Bloomberg 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:05.240 system tells me that you badged in at two twenty 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:08.720 two am. God bless you. How many cups of coffee 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:10.800 are you on at this point? And have there been 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:12.840 any drugs involved to keep you going? 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:13.840 No? 0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:17.200 No ketamine for me. Just a couple of americanos will do. 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:18.640 And I'm hanging in. 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:23.080 Okay, okay, excellent. So in addition to getting the breakdown 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:24.760 from Craig, we're also going to hear from our old 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:30.520 pals Max and Dana, who have sent us audio clips 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:34.040 with their impressions of how this went last night. But Craig, 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:38.000 let's start with just give us a sense of for 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:40.040 all the folks like me out there who slept through 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:41.880 this thing. What are the top lines here? 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:44.359 Well, I think that clip that we just played off 0:02:44.360 --> 0:02:47.799 the top was instructive in that you know, the folks 0:02:47.800 --> 0:02:49.959 in the room definitely there was a lot of oohing 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:54.040 and out eyeing and cheering at what Elon had to say, 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:57.360 and you know, I give give him credit. You know, 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:01.000 the cyber cab that he showed, it's a slick looking, 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:05.280 you know, two seater. They showed a Robovan or reboven 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:09.799 depending on how Elon was deciding to pronounce it, that 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:13.200 you know, also also looked cool, you know, But in 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:15.840 terms of when these are actually going to be ready, 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.000 how many they're going to make, any sort of technical 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:22.760 indications of real progress here and sort of hard and 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:26.519 fast details, there was nothing we got through his presentation, 0:03:26.680 --> 0:03:30.120 and honestly, my reaction to it was was was that 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:31.760 it that's all. That's all we. 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.840 Got, Craig. How long did the presentation go on for, I. 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:38.800 Think from beginning to end it was roughly forty minutes, 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:42.640 But that included a little intro by the head of 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:45.560 design for Tesla, and so it wasn't entirely Elon, and 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:49.720 there were some interruptions of you know, people getting excited 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:52.320 about what he had to say. So you know, this 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:56.400 also included you know, sort of demos of the car 0:03:56.440 --> 0:04:00.520 and the van driving around the Warner Brothers lot, which 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:04.400 you know, as Max said, earlier this week. We've seen 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:08.040 demos now year after year after year. You know, I 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.400 feel like we've seen fewer of them more recently because 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:12.280 the rest of the world has sort of woken up 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:15.080 to just how difficult it's going to be to put 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:18.160 these things on the road. But Elon is really sticking 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.520 to it, and not only that, sort of betting the 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:21.240 company on it. 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:26.040 Right, he said, I believe that he's aspiration and this 0:04:26.080 --> 0:04:28.599 wouldn't be now for the Robotaxi itself, this would be 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:32.640 for their other for the current fleet and with its 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:39.039 autonomous capabilities, he's hoping to have them greenlit to to 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:44.760 operate autonomously. I believe in the cities in California and Texas. 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:46.040 Is that right? Yeah? 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:48.880 And we heard that in the clip off the top. 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:52.160 I mean, I think for him to refer to I 0:04:52.200 --> 0:04:54.400 guess I also just want to kind of parse what 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:58.560 he's saying there. He's saying unsupervised full self driving. I 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:03.279 would think that full self driving would indicate not needing 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:06.120 to be supervised. But I guess that's where we are 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:09.960 after you know, Tesla having sold these features as you know, 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.240 fully self driving when they are anything but four years now. 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:14.279 So you know. 0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:16.600 I think that just speaks to this idea of when 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:20.800 he when he gives these timelines, you have to take 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:23.479 them with a great big grain of salt. 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:27.599 But the top lines are apparently perhaps under thirty thousand 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:31.640 dollars this thing shall cost in production by twenty twenty six, 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:35.680 and maybe no steering wheel, no pedals on this thing. 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:41.440 Let's listen for a second to Dana Dana Hall's take 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:41.800 on this. 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.360 When I heard the phrase individual mass transit, I kind 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:51.280 of flipped out. The event was interesting. We saw the Robojaxi, 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:56.159 we saw a robo van, we saw optimists serving drinks. 0:05:56.520 --> 0:06:00.760 But as like an event, I don't know. I underwhelmed. 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:03.600 I think the expectations for this were really high. I'm 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:05.520 sure it was a super fun party for people that 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.800 were there, but I just just didn't do it for me. 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:09.000 There. 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.839 It was light on the details, light on the business model, 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:14.239 timeframe is still ways off. 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.000 Optimism of serving drinks crag. That seems kind of cool, 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:24.679 all right, but so Dana says, light on details. Wall 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:29.360 Street very much agrees with that. At one bank, the analysts, 0:06:29.400 --> 0:06:33.400 I think it was Jeffries, they said Musk's Robotaxi was 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.760 quote toothless. I'm not exactly sure we wanted this thing 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:40.120 to have teeth, but I get the point. Craig Dana 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.880 is correct. Expectations were high, and there was a lot 0:06:43.040 --> 0:06:45.760 riding on this because the stock had soared in the 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:49.400 run up to this event, maybe more than fifty percent. 0:06:49.120 --> 0:06:50.960 I believe now almost seventy percent. 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:56.000 Seventy percent. It's down a good chunk. We are recording, 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.480 to be clear, before the market opens on Wall Street. 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.839 But in pre market trading, it's good. It's down a 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:03.680 good amount. 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:03.680 Is it not. 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:08.120 Yeah, it was down as much as as almost seven 0:07:08.160 --> 0:07:12.520 percent before the before the market open, so I think, 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.040 you know, you refer to the Jeffreys report that those 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:19.080 particular analysts cover Uber and Lyft, and I thought it 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:21.400 was very interesting that you saw analysts sort of come 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.200 out of the woodwork who cover those companies and say, 0:07:24.240 --> 0:07:26.280 all right, guys, you know, sort of all clear here. 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:29.080 It speaks to the idea that, you know, not only 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:32.360 are our folks who cover Tesla for a living sort 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:35.520 of walking away from this event with without you know, 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:38.520 much in the way of of sort of high hopes, 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:43.200 but analysts who cover the ride hailing companies also you know, 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:46.400 we're really closely watching this because they were concerned that, 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:49.600 you know, after Musk talking about this year after year 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:52.240 after year, maybe now is finally going to be the 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:54.560 time that that he's ready to launch a service that 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:57.440 would compete with the uber and lifts of the world. 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:00.840 And you know, I don't think that anybody sort of 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.680 you know, had a takeaway from last night that you know, 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:07.760 what those companies need to worry about this. 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:15.040 I guess the glass half full take on this would be, well, 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:17.760 this is the initial market reaction. They're not in love 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.320 with it with all the details and what they saw, 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.440 but heck, after a seventy percent pop in the stock, 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:27.360 if you give back seven percent, that ain't too bad. 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:29.360 We shall see how it trades the rest of the 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:34.040 day and in coming days and see if these concerns 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.439 that we're seeing this morning keep building or if they're 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:39.200 just a temporary blip. Let's also listen to our man 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:41.280 Max Chafkin and get his take. 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:46.760 I just watched the cyber Cab unveiling. Now I got 0:08:46.800 --> 0:08:49.640 a caveat this. I was in the back of a 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.319 taxi watching it on a small screen, coming home from 0:08:52.400 --> 0:08:56.000 a event I'd had maybe a glass and a half 0:08:56.000 --> 0:09:01.280 of wine, so you know, caveats there. But I have 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.960 to say it was not I don't think it was 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.360 the best case scenario for Elon. We talked about it 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:10.720 being on a sound stage. It looked like a sound stage. 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:14.119 There were like what looked like sort of plywood cutouts 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:16.400 of vehicles to make it look like a real street. 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:23.480 It looked like a staged thing, and the entire event 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:28.480 was sort of about looking forward and you know, sketching 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:30.800 out this glorious future that Elon has talked about many 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.760 times and how much cheaper it's going to be when 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:36.080 you have robots, and how many more parking spaces they'll be, 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:38.240 and how much more green space they'll be. And it 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:41.280 really was the kind of standard futurist stuff that we 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:46.040 have been hearing from autonomous vehicle pioneers for fifteen years, 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:51.160 and there was very little in specifics. Now, I will 0:09:51.200 --> 0:09:56.560 say the cyber cab itself is pretty striking. They had 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.439 I think twenty of them there, so it's definitely a 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:03.199 long way from as market, and you know, it looks cool, 0:10:03.280 --> 0:10:07.760 it looks futuristic. I just am not sure it's a 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:13.560 future that is anywhere near for us. And and and 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:17.800 you know, I almost almost tempted to say not in 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:19.200 our lifetimes. 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:22.240 I have to say I do agree with Max and 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:28.600 with you Craig, that, uh, this thing looks pretty badass, 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:33.680 right for a guy who's got a current fleet that 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:40.080 looks a little stale and stayed and old. This thing 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:41.479 pops visually. 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:44.600 I think it does. And and I just would again, 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:47.079 you know, not not to be this sort of Debbie downer, 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:52.800 but you know, Elon is fond of saying prototypes are easy. 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.480 Production is hard, and I think that that's a really 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:59.240 apt thing here that like, you know, he he built 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:03.920 a very eat prototype here. I think the Robovan prototype 0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:08.400 is cool. It reminds me a lot of the Crew's origin, 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:11.680 which was a bit smaller of a sort of bread 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:15.880 loaf shaped vehicle that debuted years ago. But again, just 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.560 to sort of go back to sort of throwing a 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.320 bit of cold water on things here, GM a few 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:24.920 months back decided to scrap plans to to you know, 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:29.480 make that cruise origin because of federal motor safety standards 0:11:29.559 --> 0:11:33.520 that that you know, they had petitioned for exemptions to 0:11:33.559 --> 0:11:37.880 those rules, and for years that petition went you know, 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:42.960 unacted upon, and so I just have a strong suspicion that, 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:46.200 you know, we're going to end up talking maybe a 0:11:46.280 --> 0:11:49.160 year or two from now about Elon taking you know, 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:51.920 either one of these vehicles to Nitsa and not being 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.760 happy about them, just sort of giving their instant blessing 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.400 for these being actually ready for the road. 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:00.920 Craig, any final thoughts from you, sir before we let 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:04.360 you go and crash to sleep. 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:05.360 Yeah. 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:08.800 I think this this event sort of, you know, sums 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:12.439 up exactly why Elon is such a polarizing character, because 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:14.960 on one hand, you can see in this this is 0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.600 this is the visionary who dares to think it's you know, 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:22.000 possibly feasible to you know, shoot off rockets and land 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.560 them back on bard ships in the ocean. He's gonna, 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:29.200 you know, do it all again and completely revolutionize you know, 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.640 road transport. I think what we've just learned over the 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:34.920 last decade or so, and and this gets back to, 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:37.520 you know, what Max was saying is it may be 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:41.400 more difficult to put a safe self driving car on 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.880 the road than to to land rocket ships back here 0:12:44.880 --> 0:12:47.960 on Earth after shooting them off into space. And it 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:49.880 just speaks to this sort of you know, level of 0:12:50.280 --> 0:12:53.880 technical challenge and capability that is going to be required 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:58.640 for these autonomous vehicles to be acceptable to society. 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:05.040 Very good point, and it reminds me of something somewhat related, 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.800 which is watching him on stage there after having just 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.480 seen him on stage with Trump and Butler, Pennsylvania. I 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.079 will say this, he was much more in his element 0:13:15.200 --> 0:13:19.160 here right, Like you know, you had to like the 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:22.199 slick leather jacket going. He was kind of right. He 0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:28.200 just seemed cool and confident and and like I said, 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.480 in his element, whereas I don't think he knew what 0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:35.040 the hell to do when he was on stage in Butler, Pennsylvania. Craig, 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.319 thanks for joining us. Go get some sleep. We'll have 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:39.360 you back on again soon. 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:40.480 Thanks guys. 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:52.120 This episode was produced by Stacy Wong. Nailmi Shaven and 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:55.880 Rayhan Harmanci are our senior editors. The idea for this 0:13:56.120 --> 0:14:00.360 very show also came from Rayhan Blake Maple's Handles Engineering 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:05.079 and Dave Purcell fact checks. Our supervising producer is Magnus Henrikson. 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:08.839 The elon Ing theme is written and performed by Taka 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:14.240 Yasuzawa and Alex Sugira. Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer, 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:17.599 and Sage Bauman is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts. A 0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:21.400 big thanks, as always to our supporter Joel Weber. I'm 0:14:21.480 --> 0:14:24.920 David Papadopoulos. If you have a minute, rate and review 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.240 our show, it'll help other listeners find us. See you 0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:30.880 next week.