WEBVTT - Surveillance: Fed & Inflation with Rogoff (Podcast) 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 0:00:09.200 --> 0:00:13.200 with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Daily we bring you 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:18.600 insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:23.840 To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com, 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:30.240 and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Slotting in is 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:32.840 a two hour conversation that we can have this morning 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:36.600 with Kenneth Rogoff. He's professor of economics at Harvard. He 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:39.000 is the former I m F Chief. Economis are far 0:00:39.080 --> 0:00:41.800 far more than that, truly, one of our thinkers of 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:45.560 this moment we're in. I mentioned Professor Rogoff to Geita 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:47.839 Gopinath when I was at the I m F a 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.880 number of weeks ago about this moment with foreign exchange 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:55.120 and linking it into our greater global economy and of 0:00:55.160 --> 0:00:57.480 course our central banks. Kenn thank you so much for 0:00:57.560 --> 0:01:00.440 joining Surveillance. UH this morning, cannot want to go to 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:03.080 a quote from twenty years ago. I remember this paper 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:07.200 the Carnegie mel and the Freshwater School, Bennett McCollum and 0:01:07.240 --> 0:01:10.840 the team the ones dominant I s LM framework from 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:15.240 mecro Economic analysis been sharply criticized excel A on of 0:01:15.319 --> 0:01:19.919 it and the rest of it. Nevertheless, most undergraduate mecro 0:01:20.000 --> 0:01:25.120 economics textbooks continue to feature I s LM models. Can 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.920 take us from John Hicks N. Nine through what you 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:32.280 and I were weaned on to where we are now. 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:36.920 Does any central bank have a convection a conventional theory 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:41.640 in two thousand twenty two, Well, they still teach I 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.480 s l M analysis and modern versions of it. But 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:49.440 central banks, of course, we're not expecting this inflation. They 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:52.800 hadn't seen inflation for a long time. They didn't know 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:55.680 what would cause it. They had some thoughts, and I think, 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:59.240 if you're honest about the academic literature, there was tremendous 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:04.280 uncertainty about the Phillips curve, about the long run neutral 0:02:04.480 --> 0:02:07.800 rate of interest. So there's just massive uncertainty. And then 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:10.720 you get hit by the pandemic and now the war 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:14.640 in Ukraine, and the uncertainty is bigger than ever. It 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:17.880 was so important here, folks, and I speak of projects Syndicate, 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.440 I can't say enough. As a font of wisdom, led 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:24.360 by Kinneth Rogoff, the Laureate Michael Spence and Steve wrote 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:27.440 many many others. But Kenna roof you right in your 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:33.400 essay there on this synchronized global economy. How synchronized are we? 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:40.399 How synchronized is America with China and with Europe? Well, 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:44.280 I mean, I think the risks of having a perfect storm, 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:48.359 where Europe is in recession because of the war, China 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:52.399 is in recession because of a failed COVID lockdown policy, 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:57.280 in the United States, because the Fed tightens too much 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:00.600 too fast, or you know, however we judge it in 0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:03.440 response to inflation, and those all feed on each other. 0:03:03.480 --> 0:03:07.200 I mean, if China has a supply recession, which is 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.359 really what we're talking about, that's going to feed inflation, 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.400 it's going to hurt demand in Europe. Obviously, if the 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.919 United States goes into recession and hits financial markets all 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:21.840 over the world, I would say the risks have risen 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:26.360 palpably that this might happen. We could get you know, 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:28.399 things could work out well, and that there's a lot 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.720 of uncertainty. But it's not hard to see all of 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.320 these risks. I mean, I admit in China it's hard 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.440 to see what's going on, but I feel they might 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:41.600 already be bordering on recession. So Ken, do you think 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:44.480 that already that the risk has gotten too much, the 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:47.600 FED moving too far too fast, at a time when 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:51.320 a significant proportion of those on Wall Street think it's 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.680 the opposite, that perhaps they're poised to be overly devish 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:57.880 and not respond enough to inflation that surprises again and 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:01.040 again to the upside. Well, I don't think we'll know 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.640 for a while what they're gonna do. Because they can 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:07.360 raise interest right, it's a lot before they raise them 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:11.120 too much. I mean, the idea at this well, I 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:13.920 think the idea that just to three percent would be 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:17.719 enough really unlikely. I think they're going to have to 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:21.120 raise interest rates to four or five percent to bring 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:23.880 inflation down to two and a half or three percent. 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:27.359 And I don't know if that is something they're going 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:29.800 to decide to do. I'm not even saying that's something 0:04:29.839 --> 0:04:32.640 they should do. We really have to see what's going on. 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.440 You know, how deep the recession is. They there's they've 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:40.520 dug a hole, or to be precise, the huge stimulus 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:43.080 in March. And I think a lot of the pressures 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:46.880 on the fet and uncertainty from academics and research as 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:49.279 dug a hole. And it's not easy to get out of. 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.360 I mean, there's no pretty picture here, Kenn. Let's sit 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:53.920 on that for a minute. That you think that in 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.600 order to get down to a two and a half 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:58.279 or two percent inflation rate, they would have to raise 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.599 rates four or five per sent. You don't know whether 0:05:01.640 --> 0:05:04.120 they should do that. When will we know whether they 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.000 should be opting for getting back down to that kind 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:10.920 of target at some point in the next few years. Well, 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:14.840 I mean, you know, it depends on what's going on, 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:18.760 what the costs are. They could get lucky and some 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:22.560 of the inflation turns out to be transitory enough so 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:26.400 that they get a gentle landing. It is not impossible, 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:29.920 but they're you know, clearly a lot of things still 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:35.480 that could go wrong. Escalation in Europe, China, you know, 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:41.279 getting worse, and it's irrational, COVID lockdowns, and there's just 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:43.120 a lot of uncertainty. So I'm not you know, I'm 0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:45.919 not gonna like to say I know exactly what needs 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:50.040 to be done, but it's clear that things are way 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.480 out of control. Can Rogoff, you are part of our 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:58.520 global interior. Confidence in the dollar. From Moundell Fleming to 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:02.440 Jacob Frankel to her work, Morris Hopsfeld and the rest 0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:05.000 and on Rudy Dornbush and on. We come to a 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:10.880 new point. Is the dollars study availue now or is 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:15.160 its secondary to what it used to be? Oh? I 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:19.600 think the dollars more powerful than it ever was. And yes, 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.200 central bank reserves have been dir diversified a bit, although 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:26.200 a lot into currencies that are sort of pegging against 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:30.640 the dollar. Uh. The dollar is dominant in trade, in voicing, 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:36.240 it's dominant in uh financial markets, It's dominant and uh, 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:41.520 you know all kinds of transactions. Uh, it's surprising. I 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:44.280 think it's actually, by many measures, more dominant than it 0:06:44.480 --> 0:06:46.560 was in the fifties when it was supposed to be 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:49.160 the global currency. Well in the fifties. And let me 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.440 digress then, Ken, this is so important on Germany right 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:57.039 now in Europe? Is Germany held back by a memory 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:02.360 of atmar issuing economics and such? Mean? Is Germany reticent 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:05.680 with the war in Ukraine? From another time in place? 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:09.040 Is the dollar from another time in place? I'm not 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:11.240 quite sure what you're asking, Tom, I mean, you know, 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:15.560 are you asking? Is Germany not moving more aggressively in 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:20.000 Ukraine because it's concerned about Dafa sits. I don't think so. 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.840 I think it's much more, you know, the concern about escalation. 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.480 How much do you push Putin to push him over 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:29.280 a cliff? I think that's actually a very tough call, 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:31.960 and the Germans don't see it the same way that 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:35.200 the American administration does. Yeah, I'm sorry my question there 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:37.960 wasn't all that clear. I fail everyone. I failed Ken 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:40.200 when the Red Sox are in last place, So I'm 0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:44.080 failing right right now Ken on Germany, then in the 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:48.040 euro the challenge for Christine Leguard given what I'm gonna 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:51.360 call the German reticence, how difficult a moment is this 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:57.360 for the politician Leguard? Well, I think the toughest spot 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:02.760 is that they seem to have connected politically raising interest rates, 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:06.840 which they need to do, and scaling back on quantitative easing, 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.360 which is a different animal in Europe. It's really a 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:12.880 subsidy from north to south. If they start scaling back 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:16.800 on quantitative easing, given all the fragilities, we could see 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:19.680 spikes and interest rates in the in the south, in 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:23.360 Italy and Portugal and Spain. So they need to raise 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.680 interest rates, but they've really been painted into a corner 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:31.000 by becoming the de facto euro Treasury, and they're backing 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:34.360 the South. So it's a difficult political position. I think 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:39.239 that's the most difficult part, not so much navigating deficits. 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:41.720 Professor wonderful to catch up with you, sir, Professor Ken 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:50.760 Rogoff of Harvard. Let's get to market out of the 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:54.400 head of US right strategy a BF A global research mark. 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:56.360 Let's get the Bank of America view. It will be 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:58.920 hard for the Fed to out haulke the market tomorrow 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.280 run us through it. Yeah, that's right. We think, Look, 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.720 the market is pricing right now two d basis points 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.360 of rate hikes over the next four meetings. It is 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:10.280 pricing in around fifty five or fifty seven basis points 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.559 for the Fed in June, So some notable odds of 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:16.240 a seventy five basis point rate increase at that time, 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:19.200 and we think that, look, the Fed's gonna deliver fifty 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:22.040 They're gonna try and be noncommittal on the rate guidance thereafter, 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.880 and then they're gonna do QT. Now, what the market 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:26.440 is going to care about the most is what are 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:28.959 the odds of seventy five? And again we think that 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:32.319 Powell is not necessarily gonna fan those flames. He's gonna say, 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:34.559 we're data dependent, We're gonna go meeting by meeting, and 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.880 if we need to hike faster, we will very similar 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:39.319 message to what he delivered at the last meeting that, 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:41.960 given how much is priced for, the FED may end 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.760 up looking a little bit dubbish or at least neutral 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:47.760 to slightly dubbish. Mank where is the consensus at the FED, 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:50.240 and more importantly, where is the devision and how will 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.760 this cham and navigate that deficsion in that news conference. 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:55.920 This is a fit that's highly uncertain um. It's a 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.720 fent that's been willing to provide concrete forward guidance because 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.240 they just don't know how the world's gonna evolve. The 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:03.559 most importantly, they don't know how the inflation outlook is 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:06.240 going to evolve. So it seems like the consensus agrees 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:08.480 that the FED needs to be at least at the 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:12.240 fed's nominal neutral rate, which they believe is around two 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:13.800 and a quarter to two and a half by the 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:16.000 end of the year. But then there's a wide range 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:18.599 of views around where the FED goes from there. Some 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:21.280 want to be much higher in rate by the end 0:10:21.320 --> 0:10:23.760 of the year, while others, it seems, are a little 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:26.320 less certain that the FED needs to be outright restrictive. 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:28.640 So over the near term, look, the Feed is going 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:31.040 to deliver a string of fifty basis point rate hikes 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:34.320 we think three, the markets pricing something closer to four. 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.679 But after that it's really gonna be data dependent, and 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:40.440 we think the Fed would like to provide forward guidance. 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:42.800 It's just that they're still very uncertain at this point 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:44.679 in time. So j Pal is going to give his 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:47.360 press conference, he's going to answer questions, and then he's 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.120 gonna walk off, and he's gonna check markets, probably and 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.559 get a sense of what the reaction was to what 0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:55.800 he said. What will he be pleased by? In other words, 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:58.480 if the markets are calm, will that be a positive 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.559 result for him? I think so. I think that the 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.960 FED wants to stop being a source of volatility. Typically, 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:07.839 over the last three rate hiking cycles, what you've seen 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:10.520 is that you've seen implied rates fall come down as 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:13.480 the FED height This cycle is very different. Implied rates 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:16.000 fall has gone up, and with that markets have just 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:18.360 become a bit more volatile, and they're swinging around a 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:20.760 little bit more. I don't know that that's necessarily the 0:11:20.880 --> 0:11:23.319 role that the FED wants to play. The FED doesn't 0:11:23.320 --> 0:11:26.480 typically like to shock or surprise the market. They like 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:30.120 to have their intentions well known in advance and then 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:32.560 to follow through on them. And we think that that's 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:34.839 ultimately what they're going to be trying to achieve here 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.080 as they move closer to neutral, So calm market reaction, 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:41.080 a limited market reaction is probably going to be seen 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:43.800 as a win for Chair Power when he walks off 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.800 that stage tomorrow. Mark is keeping calm a policy error 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:49.920 at a time when some people are basically are saying 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.079 that they need to shock and awe a market that 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.640 is enabling the inflation rate to be and remain as 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.320 high as it is. Yeah, I don't think that they 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.600 necessarily believe that we need to shock and surprise the market. 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.079 They know that they need to tighten financial conditions, and 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.480 by many accounts, they've already been successful given the forward guidance. 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.120 Some of the market is priced to this point in time. 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:12.800 But do they necessarily need to be swinging around the 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.880 market um and create a lot of uncertainty. I think 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:17.839 that they would say that that's probably a step too 0:12:17.960 --> 0:12:20.319 far for them. And look, if they want a surprise, 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:22.920 they'll keep going fifties and not stop by the end 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:26.240 of this year. That would certainly help tighten financial conditions. 0:12:26.480 --> 0:12:27.719 But I don't know that the Fed is ready to 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:29.800 commit to that yet, nor do I think that they 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:31.760 really want to try and again create a bunch of 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:36.360 volatility in this already very uncertain marketplace. Markovna awesome as 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:44.040 a wife of bank americt level research right now a 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:47.280 really interesting person to speak to of this uproar off 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:54.400 of the leaked February draft of the legal aspects of 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:59.679 the Supreme Court on abortion. And our guest is the 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.920 Attorney General for Delaware. But what is so important about 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:10.480 Kathy Jennings is her prosecutorial expertise. This is someone who 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:14.000 didn't You didn't get Kathy. You didn't get the job 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:20.400 as attorney general at a country club over cocktails, did you? No? 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:26.040 You did not with all of your prosecutor experience on this. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.800 What is the importance of what the Supreme Court will do? 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:36.120 Is it permanent or as a president said moments ago, 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:38.959 he's going to do this, this and this given that, 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:44.319 what what's the trend here? The timeline from this uproar 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.640 to whatever the Supreme Court decides, and the then what 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:52.520 after that? How do you see that? Well, first of all, 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:59.280 good morning, and here's the hard truth. If this draft 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:03.959 opinion and becomes the law of our country, it is 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:08.400 the death blow to a constitutional right that has protected 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:14.719 women's access to abortion for nearly half a century. That 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.839 is what some would suggest the conservative justice of the 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:25.240 Court and their supporters desire is well again on the process, 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:28.600 Attorney General, the idea of where we are with this 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.480 draft leakage to whatever the Court decides. As you mentioned, 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.000 you say a death blow, and then I want to 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:41.440 know what the then what is after the death blow? Sure, 0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:45.960 it will then be up to each state in the 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:54.000 country to determine whether there should remain legal and safe 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:59.240 access to abortion. What has protected women for almost fifty 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:04.600 years is the constitutional requirement that no state could enact 0:15:04.680 --> 0:15:08.760 a law that took away the right to abortion. When 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:13.000 a fetus is not viable, that gets tossed out the window. 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:17.320 And so it is going to be a state led 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:25.320 effort to ensure that women can access abortion in the states. 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:27.840 Were there is that? Where is that? Where we were 0:15:27.920 --> 0:15:32.880 in nineteen seventy seventy two before nineteen seventy three. Is 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:34.840 it just as simple as we go back to what 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:39.400 was there one week before Roe v. Wade. It's as 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:44.400 simple as that. If abortion was a crime prior to 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.920 Roe v. Wade in nineteen seventy three, and a lot 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.320 of states still have that law on their books, then 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.240 abortion becomes a crime again and there is no constitutional 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.360 protection for women. Cathey, the political angles here are just 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:03.960 you know, uh, just vast and broad here. How do 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:08.760 you think this if it is in fact the ruling, 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.320 if it is the report that we've seen is is correct, 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:14.400 what do you think Washington is going to do as 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:18.840 it relates to mid term elections? Well, I can tell 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.600 you this. This is a wake up call for all 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:25.760 of us, for everyone, whether you are running for federal office, 0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:30.040 whether you're running for statewide office. It's a wake up 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:35.800 call for voters everywhere to know that if you want 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.600 to protect what we have taken for granted as a 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.680 constitutional right, then you need to get to the ballot 0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:45.680 box and you need to vote for attorneys general across 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:50.560 this country who are protecting abortion access. Because it will 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:54.680 be up to each state, and each states votes count, 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:59.160 and elections count Attorney General moments ago, publishing we think 0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.720 our our wonderful top Live people for this and Anthony 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:06.200 Lynn are legal editor this morning. Lawrence Tribe, of course 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.960 a noted scholar. Clearly I'm going to say as a 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:14.199 general statement for cocktail conversation to the left. Uh. Lawrence 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:16.840 Tribe goes on to say, it will enable a GOP 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:21.359 Congress to enact a nationwide band an abortion and contraception. 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:24.199 So that's where I wanted to go. If we get 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:27.919 a Supreme Court ruling, whatever it is, a given party 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:33.440 can enact something in Congress later, as Tribe says, a 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:37.000 nationwide band, or can it go the other way where 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:41.040 the president can front run the legal case as he 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.040 alluded to twenty minutes ago in a release from the 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:50.720 White House. Sure Congress could certainly try to enact a 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:54.520 nationwide band. And once again, that's why this upcoming election 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:59.320 is so critically important to women everywhere, because we cannot 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.359 let that happen. I'm gonna have to leave it there. 0:18:01.440 --> 0:18:03.440 Kathy Jennings, thank you so much for joining us. We 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.560 hope to speak against soon. Is the Attorney General of 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:17.600 the state of Delaware. Right now on the international moment, 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.720 in Ukraine. Elena Polo Covid Joins is now President CEO 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:24.600 of Center for European Policy Analysis. Elena, forty years ago 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.879 today the Falkland exo set, the Sheffield went down, the 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:31.280 Russian ship went down. It seems like Ukraine can do 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:35.280 the big dramatic event like the Moskva and the rest 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:38.800 of it. How are they doing, as you describing your note, 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:46.239 with conventional warfare and particularly establishing a no fly zone. Well, 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:50.159 Ukraine is certainly outperforming all expectations, just as the Russian 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:54.840 military has been underperforming all expectations. But right now Ukraine 0:18:54.920 --> 0:18:58.280 has very little control of its air space, and that's 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.399 been the case for our probably big inning of this 0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:02.560 whole thing. So what they really need now is the 0:19:02.600 --> 0:19:05.399 ability to be able to prevent the missile attacks, the 0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:09.560 bombs that have been decimating Ukrainian cities now for three months. 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.880 But in terms of their on the ground military operations 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:17.000 with massive weapons supplies now coming from the West, especially 0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:20.240 from the US, they're doing incredibly well and slowing down 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.639 the Russian offensive in the east. What's the truth here, 0:19:22.680 --> 0:19:25.160 a Lena, in terms of just how poorly Russia is doing. 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:27.639 There are some reports about morale being a real issue 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:31.640 about there being a real fear and unwillingness to experience 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.800 the casualties that the Russian troops have been experiencing. How 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:38.119 much is that the actuality versus a more tense battle 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:40.760 with more progress in the down Pass region than some 0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:45.560 people let on. Well, the Russian military has an incredible 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:48.040 ability to adapt and learn with seem this now for 0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.639 years with their offensive and Syria many years ago in 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:54.760 two thousand eight in Georgia, so they tried, uh, this 0:19:55.000 --> 0:19:57.480 very aggressive approach to take over the capital key of 0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:00.200 that failed and they've learned from that. Now they have 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:02.960 a much better understanding of Ukraine's capabilities. They know the 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:06.040 weapons they have, and they're adapting, and they're certainly putting 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:08.840 some of their top forces on the line here. Uh 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.800 Many Russian generals in a shocking number of Russian generals 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:16.040 have been killed during this war, a huge number that 0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:19.040 we don't see modern warfare anymore. But they are adapting, 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:21.920 they're putting more on the line. But certainly, you know, 0:20:22.000 --> 0:20:25.440 if you're Ukraining, you're defending your home, your family. You're 0:20:25.480 --> 0:20:27.960 going to fight for that until the last breath. And 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:31.159 the Russian soldiers they don't really know what they're fighting 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:35.040 for except that they're there and they're being given order. 0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:37.680 Some morale has been a huge issue, um in terms 0:20:37.720 --> 0:20:40.000 of getting done what they want to get done militarily. 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:42.960 What's been the most accurate read you've gotten, Elina on 0:20:43.040 --> 0:20:47.280 the casualty at numbers out of Russia. It's so hard 0:20:47.359 --> 0:20:49.800 to tell because of course, everything the Russian government puts 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.399 out there is going to be much lower than the reality. Uh. 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:56.240 You know, we're assuming that tens of thousands of Russian 0:20:56.320 --> 0:20:59.159 soldiers have either been killed or injured beyond the ability 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:01.680 to fight. Some of the estimates suggest it could be 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.440 up to sixty thousand at this point, but it's really 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:08.320 really hard to know because of course the Russian government, Uh, 0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.560 the estimates there are somewhere around fifteen hundreds still, so 0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.200 that gap is huge. So I'm guessing the truth is 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:17.040 somewhere in between. But certainly the losses have been high. 0:21:17.560 --> 0:21:22.240 With all your skill and scholarship, are the Russians tramped 0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:28.560 in Ukraine? There's certainly not going to pull back. I 0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:33.600 mean Mr Putin's entire regime, his ability to stay in power, 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:37.320 his survival really depends on a win in Ukraine, and 0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:39.720 he knows that, and he's not going to pull back. 0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:43.200 So I think the war will last, unfortunately much much 0:21:43.320 --> 0:21:46.840 longer than I think we had originally anticipated. But there's 0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:49.240 no backing down for Prutin. He knows if he loses, 0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:52.440 and he's seen as a loser in Russia, that's really 0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:54.880 the end of him and the end of his regime 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:57.399 and potentially the end of his life, because that's how 0:21:57.480 --> 0:22:00.520 brutal Russian politics are these days. Lena, what do you 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:02.720 know about his health? Because there have been so many 0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:05.080 reports around that over the last couple of days. How 0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:07.840 on earth do we get a read on that? And 0:22:07.960 --> 0:22:10.280 this is always the big question with dictators, you know, 0:22:10.359 --> 0:22:13.560 always speculating about their health and their illness. We know 0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:16.840 that Mr Putin is certainly during COVID became quite isolated, 0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:21.639 very paranoid. Uh, he doesn't feel comfortable people around him. 0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:23.840 People have to look warranting before they even allowed to 0:22:23.920 --> 0:22:27.760 see him. So we know that he's very concerned about himself, 0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:29.840 just based on how we see him in public. And 0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:32.560 there's been many reports that he has a crew of 0:22:32.760 --> 0:22:36.320 physicians that travel with him everywhere, and there's even a 0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:39.080 joke in Russia that says we know Putin is coming 0:22:39.280 --> 0:22:42.560 to a meeting because the ambulances arrived first. I mean, 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:45.119 we don't know, but certainly you know he's a man 0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:49.320 now approaching seventy you know, right, life expectancy in Russia 0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:51.800 for men his age is much much lower. So it's 0:22:51.840 --> 0:22:54.560 just hard to know what his health actually is. But 0:22:54.640 --> 0:22:58.399 the speculation has certainly accelerated. Elena. Thank you for your 0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:01.240 time and perspective this morning, and public cover that of 0:23:01.320 --> 0:23:12.359 the Center for European Policy and NASSAS. David Rubinstein Bloomberg 0:23:12.400 --> 0:23:15.439 Wealth looked for that tonight at nine pm and Mr 0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:18.359 Rubinstein joins us this morning. Of course, this is not 0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:20.840 all that well known, you know, coming out of the 0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:25.160 Baltimore combine that basketball scholarship you got to Duke University 0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:27.720 years ago, that worked out right, Um, I was the 0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:30.520 last person whoever I get a basketball scholarship to Duke, 0:23:30.560 --> 0:23:32.000 and I went to Duke on a scholarship, but it 0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.439 was not a basketball it was not a basketball scholarship. 0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:38.120 We're making news this morning, Mr last three, and it's 0:23:38.160 --> 0:23:40.879 great and because there's so many people in successful in 0:23:40.960 --> 0:23:44.879