1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. 3 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal. 4 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 4: And I'm Tracy Alloway. 5 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 2: Tracy, we're recording this March twenty fifth, twenty twenty six. 6 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 3: That's nine ten am in there. 7 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 4: Are you going to do the seconds as well? 8 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 2: No, But the reason they do mention the time this 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: cash trading in the stock market hasn't open. The reason 10 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:40,879 Speaker 2: I mentioned the time is not just because things are 11 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 2: moving fast, but to establish we've had market moving headlines 12 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: already this morning. Oh and so just in the last 13 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: like fifteen to twenty minutes, we got some headlines attributed 14 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 2: to the Forest News Agency out of Iran saying there 15 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,279 Speaker 2: is no interest in talks, there's no interest in ceasefire 16 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: in the US position about pursuing a ceasefire is a 17 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: logical that mood futures down a little bit. We're you know, 18 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 2: it's a cliche, you know, a headline driven market. 19 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:06,639 Speaker 3: You hear that a lot. 20 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: The last several weeks have felt like the headline driven 21 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 2: market to drive all headline driven market. 22 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 4: No, it really, I know it's a cliche, but it 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 4: really is a headline driven market, and I think part 24 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 4: of the issue here is because no one's entirely sure 25 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 4: what the goals are when it comes to Iran, It's 26 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 4: really hard to judge progress of the conflict on any 27 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 4: sort of fundamental basis, right, so all you can look 28 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:32,920 Speaker 4: at is basically what Trump and the other two sides 29 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 4: are saying, and so you get these big reactions every 30 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 4: time they tweet something or post on truth social and 31 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 4: then tend to contradict each other absolutely. 32 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 2: And you know, I do think, Look, there is this 33 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: extreme level of skepticism from almost any headline you get 34 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 2: out of us White House. I think if you go 35 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 2: back to the post Liberation day environment, particularly with these 36 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 2: sort of modest approchement with China, you would get these 37 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 2: headlines we're talking, and then the Chinese would put out 38 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 2: a headline, we're not talking. But then it turns out 39 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 2: that there was a little bit more talk than what 40 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,520 Speaker 2: maybe the Chinese side had admitted to. So often, I think, 41 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 2: as much as you is, many people are inclined to 42 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 2: disbelieve headlines. I don't think people disbelieve them entirely. When 43 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 2: Trump said yesterday that the Iranians had sent him a prize, 44 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 2: that was extremely valuable, and it's like, who, I mean, 45 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 2: that's tough to take seriously, but is there. 46 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: Some modest signal? I don't know. It's really tough. 47 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 2: It's really tough, but I you know, I just want 48 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 2: to say two other things real quickly on this, which 49 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 2: is that even with the headlines today about Iran rejecting ceasefire, 50 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 2: futures are still up. So it's not like people have 51 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 2: like completely, oh, nothing's happening and for all. 52 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: To talk about. 53 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 2: And we've had multiple guests and they're the smartest people 54 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 2: in the world to talk about. Oil is going to 55 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 2: surge the longer this goes on. As of the time 56 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 2: we're talking about this, Brent crude is still right around 57 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 2: or just under one hundred dollars. We haven't had the 58 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 2: mega surge yet. So I like to take market seriously, 59 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 2: even if sometimes I don't always understand what. 60 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:06,119 Speaker 3: They're doing well. 61 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 4: The big question to me is whether or not markets 62 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 4: are still in denial right and you see people talking 63 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 4: about like, oh, people are being very optimistic about the future. 64 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,399 Speaker 4: I saw the Morgan Stanley report saying that corporate profits 65 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 4: were going to go up later this year. The oil 66 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 4: price again, we're talking about the closure of the strait 67 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 4: of war moves, which is the sort of thought experiment 68 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 4: that has been deviled oil analysts for decades, and yet 69 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 4: you know, the reaction has been kind of muted. 70 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 3: Yeah. 71 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 4: Meanwhile, in the rates market, there's a lot going on 72 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 4: there too, and you still have a lot of bond 73 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 4: traders who are very reluctant to price out the possibility 74 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 4: of a rate cut later this year completely. 75 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 2: And it feels like the idea of a rate cut, 76 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 2: at least for now, does not seem anywhere near the 77 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 2: quote table. But yeah, anyway, so how do traders even 78 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 2: make sense of this headline? How do they know what 79 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 2: headlines to believe? Why does there sometimes seem to be 80 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 2: this gap between what a lot of people think the 81 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 2: market should be and where it actually is very excited 82 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 2: to say, we have one of the most plugged in 83 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 2: people that we know as someone who is talking to 84 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 2: people who move serious money every single days. He goes 85 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 2: around the world and he has dinners with them and 86 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 2: he talks to them about their trades. Even brought us 87 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 2: a nice gift which is a core t shirt. It 88 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 2: is the cover the Macro Dinner's twenty twenty six tour 89 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 2: with a nice Deutsche Bank logo. 90 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 4: You should read some of those cities just to get 91 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 4: an ideas. 92 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 2: To the Macro Dinner Tour Jan fourth, London, Jan twenty one, Geneva, 93 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:39,679 Speaker 2: Jan twenty ninth, Milan, Miami, buddhap Has, London, New York City, Montreal, Copenhagen, Ria, Dooha, Dubai, etcetera. 94 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 3: You get the idea. 95 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: He's always talking to people and he has the one 96 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 2: of the most plugged in people that we talked to. 97 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 2: We are going to be speaking, of course, to the 98 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 2: one and only Ozon Tarman, vice Chair of Global Macro 99 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 2: at Deutsche Bank. So Ozon, thank you for coming back 100 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 2: on out lots. 101 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 5: Joe and Tracy's an absolute pleasure, highlights off the week, 102 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 5: very close to it. I used to live in New 103 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 5: York City as well. 104 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 2: It's great have you here in the studio. It's a 105 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 2: pretty wild market to trade, I assume. 106 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 5: Very very wild market trade. And on the T shirt, unfortunately, 107 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:12,479 Speaker 5: for example, the three odd cutary leg that I was 108 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 5: looking forward to, we'll see what happens. So we'll see, 109 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 5: we'll see, we'll see what happens with that. But unnecessarily 110 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 5: untradable still traders always smell things, always have a sense 111 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 5: of where the painting is, where the momentum is. Even 112 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 5: walking in now I became a veteran of this wonderful show. 113 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 5: I was thinking, this time around, we should really say Wednesday. 114 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 5: That's how I know that what I can say now 115 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 5: one day later may look a little bit different exits, etcetera. 116 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 5: But still walking now. Obviously it's a big cliche to 117 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 5: say it takes two to tango or tackle three maybe, 118 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 5: but that being said, at the moment of paint trade, 119 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 5: the momentum trade is for this equity rally and oil 120 00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 5: fall to continue. There are many unfortunately, I have told 121 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 5: all my clients friends since wounded hurt players out there, 122 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 5: certainly in race markets, certainly on front end, so people 123 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 5: are reluctant to take fresh bets. But as I constantly 124 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 5: hold these conversations round tables, I do get the sense 125 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,799 Speaker 5: that now getting to know the president well as well, 126 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 5: people did expect this. We want the war, I want 127 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 5: the war mission accomplished moment, which is trying to do 128 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 5: in a few ways. Then the big debate is yes, 129 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 5: and we do get these spikes of equity sire, oil lower. 130 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 5: At the end as you're rightly said, even Brent is 131 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:39,840 Speaker 5: lower than under them, we should talk vi Vidia is 132 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,560 Speaker 5: even lower. But do you fade it or not? That's 133 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 5: what it boils down to. Another big true cliche is 134 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 5: what does Iran do? What does Iran say? As we speak? 135 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 5: Because of Fars? Like you said, Israel twelve said, these 136 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 5: talks are happening fast. Iran said no, We're still waiting 137 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 5: which one to fad. That's the big question. Mark my god. 138 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 5: Feel from what I sense from the clients is there 139 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 5: is room for a squeeze here in equity hire oil over, 140 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,239 Speaker 5: but the tail risk is very very fat. 141 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 3: Yeah. 142 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 4: Wait, so talk to us more about positioning. I mean, 143 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 4: going into this war, I think everyone was pretty much 144 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 4: expecting rate cuts later in the year, oil prices. Nothing 145 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 4: dramatic there, certainly did Everyone just change very very quickly, 146 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 4: And now we're left with positioning that can lead to 147 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 4: a bigger squeeze higher. 148 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 5: Very elevant question. I want to take us back to 149 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 5: February twenty seven, the night before the attack on Iran. Again, 150 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 5: I was visiting Palm Beach and Miami, and the field 151 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 5: couldn't be more different. The main obsession focus of the 152 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 5: US client based the key players was AI extreiny research. 153 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 5: Something big is going to happen. Schumer how fifty percent 154 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 5: of white color jobs could be lost in twelve to 155 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 5: eighteen months. So finally, not only rate cut expectations where 156 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 5: it can increasing, we were getting bull flatteners. So even 157 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 5: long end was coming down. Thursday Friday, it was around 158 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 5: four or five. And I do remember before Iran US 159 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 5: ten year close top tick three point nine three and 160 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 5: it cannot be named, but some one of those more 161 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 5: legendary France clients of mine comes to me with an email, Osan, 162 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 5: we nail this this that bond is the new gold. 163 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 5: Oh we need to talk about our friend goals as well. Yeah, 164 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 5: one more thing, another good friend. I did bring this 165 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 5: on paper because it's very very telling. This guy sends 166 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,319 Speaker 5: me a message I think the Tuesday or Wednesday before Iran, 167 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:34,839 Speaker 5: the multi tillium question is can the rest of the 168 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 5: world isolate itself from this destruction? I'm not sure he 169 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 5: was talking more about the AI fears. Another observation today 170 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 5: reminds me of early February twenty twenty. While we also 171 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 5: people falling over in China. It became clear by the 172 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:48,439 Speaker 5: day that we were about to see a pandemic. The 173 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 5: SMP made new all time high. The same is today 174 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 5: with Iran. Nobody cares. I mean, yeah, rings sow true 175 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:54,719 Speaker 5: now right. 176 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 2: Actually, let's a about Golden Position for a second. The 177 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 2: last time we had you on with September, and one 178 00:08:59,120 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 2: of the themes of that was the relentless bid into gold, 179 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 2: and whenever we frame a conversation, I'm like, oh my god, 180 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 2: this is gonna be the top. It was not the 181 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 2: top even closed. So that was gold was around thirty 182 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 2: eight hundred ounced during that episode. It got over fifty 183 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 2: five hundred dollars. And now it's in early February. As 184 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 2: of yesterday we saw a ten day gold sell off. 185 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: How much is this just about all these different trades 186 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 2: not working at once, the steepener trade not working at once, 187 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 2: the oil trade not working at the same time, and 188 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 2: essentially a lot of players being forced to liquidate the 189 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 2: one big winning thing that they had in their portfolio. 190 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 5: Very much so, and look, I love you guys. But 191 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 5: on the last show as well, when we all started 192 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 5: with Golden Media, Golden Media, I was very you know, 193 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 5: happily and politely answering, but in my mind, I was saying, 194 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:48,840 Speaker 5: this is annoting sign. I know it, of course, and 195 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,560 Speaker 5: then I listened to our show this so I'm like, 196 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 5: risk on this works, risk of these works. I'm like 197 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 5: Joe Sacy, like it has to be something that comes 198 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 5: from the left field that gets the whole thing. And 199 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 5: even though the guy says here Iran, people look and 200 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:08,319 Speaker 5: nobody cares. The repercussions on the positions, just like you said, 201 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 5: led people to get out of all winners, and gold 202 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 5: was a big winner. Emerging markets were big winners. So 203 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 5: that was the first trigger. And then another story. Now 204 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 5: once you are in this position, once you realize it's 205 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 5: not days, it's not weeks, this is going to continue 206 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 5: on and on petro dollar countries, other people start selling 207 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 5: their winners to build defense mechanisms. I mean, it's almost 208 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 5: like public reporting. In terms of China, my motherland, Turkey, India, 209 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 5: they have these gold reserves for reasons. So that's another 210 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 5: reason why first technicals you go after your winner, and 211 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 5: then fundamentally some of these strong hands, for understandable reasons, 212 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 5: are selling them. Everything happened back to Tracy's question. So 213 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 5: people were all into these bear flat steepeners first, then 214 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 5: they believe in bull latinus because everything was all rys, 215 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 5: We're coming down. Then you get into this world and 216 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,839 Speaker 5: thanks for jumping onto it Monday after Iran warflation. Warflation, 217 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 5: this is serious inflactation. Expectations will increase. It's not as 218 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 5: simple as finding the next Venezuela Jersey and my God 219 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 5: from like getting ready for cut discussion one, two or 220 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 5: maybe three in FED at least hold ECB and certainly 221 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 5: cut the Bank of England. Look where we are now. 222 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 5: For a while we've priced in four hikes for Bank 223 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 5: of England and ECB. We're right below three now for both. 224 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 5: That's huge. That means seats are lost, pods are closed. 225 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 4: How many times have you heard the word liquidation or 226 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 4: you know a pod shot blowing up in the past 227 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 4: few weeks A lot? 228 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 5: Unfortunately, right, capitulation. And I teach all our young stars 229 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 5: or mentors. So after all, the cliche is, oh, investment 230 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 5: bank will do well, trading floor will do well because 231 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 5: you know, bit off fear or not like that. After 232 00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 5: a while, there is really something called bad wall stilty, 233 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 5: and this is bad wall stilty from these crazy headlines 234 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 5: being that much slaves to what somebody says at Friday 235 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,680 Speaker 5: ten pm to Saturday eight eleven pm. Two. Also this 236 00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 5: much of liquidation and capitation. After a while, people say 237 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 5: the best thing is a blank piece of paper less trading, 238 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 5: and let's watch. That's why you're opening question. Some people 239 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 5: see this market as untradable, but unfortunately, in times like this, 240 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 5: especially if you're not wounded, somehow flat is the new up. 241 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,839 Speaker 5: If you have survived, these are the moments to make 242 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 5: the difference. Who knows, Joe, maybe this is right around 243 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 5: April night, twenty twenty five moments. This is when maybe 244 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 5: this is right around the dip and we will remember 245 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 5: it like the time we were able to look through it. 246 00:12:53,400 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 5: I have my doubts. But maybe. 247 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 3: What is a pain trade? 248 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 2: And why is that. 249 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 3: A useful concept? 250 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 5: Very good questions. You know, you know what triggers me 251 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 5: a paintred I mean it's not the ideal definition, maybe 252 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:21,880 Speaker 5: because you don't want your clients and friends to be 253 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 5: in pain, but a lot of it. Even before the 254 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 5: days of quant trading, crowding out positioning is so important 255 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 5: for this market. After a while, it can become as 256 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 5: important as a fundamental factor. After a while, you do 257 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 5: feel that in these echo chambers. Players almost want to 258 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 5: believe because of the prising fundamentals and what they're talking about. 259 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 5: So pain trade is when that hurd gets a belief 260 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 5: in a trade so much and when it works just 261 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 5: ether way around. I mean, what happens to gold is 262 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 5: a big one because for a long time it was unshaken, 263 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 5: but sometimes even smaller instances, for the past fifteen to 264 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 5: eighteen months, we really believe that big dollar would trade salt. 265 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 5: What I mean by that is either because of hage 266 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 5: ratio didalarization, dollar wouldn't be the safe haven that it 267 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 5: used to be. It would make sense to sell dollars 268 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 5: whenever one has a chance now all of a sudden 269 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 5: because of Iran, because of people building up setting their 270 00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 5: winners to go to save havens. If we trade towards 271 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 5: the one ten, one eleven before one twenty one, twenty one, 272 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 5: that's a much less talked about pain trade. Why because 273 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 5: it's gonna further shake places like rest of the world, 274 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 5: emerging markets, Korea, etcetera, et cetera. And of course it 275 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 5: opens conversation right. Sometimes you say sometimes pain trade is 276 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 5: to abvious. Sometimes we said, no, you know that trade 277 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 5: is there for a reason. Conscience is going to continue 278 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 5: to work. You develop a market, you trade on it 279 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:55,080 Speaker 5: on the. 280 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 4: Dollar, and this is related to gold as well. We 281 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 4: do seem to be in this weird situation where like, okay, 282 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 4: people are liquidating the successful trades to raise cash, go neutral, whatever. 283 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 4: But at the same time, you still have plenty of 284 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 4: people talking about diversification away from the US, and you 285 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 4: could make a very strong argument that given what's happening 286 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 4: in the oil market right now, maybe you don't want 287 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 4: to only price that in dollars. Maybe you want to 288 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 4: start thinking about other currencies. How are people thinking about 289 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 4: the I guess like US exceptionalism trade at the moment, 290 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 4: because there's two cross currents. 291 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:33,320 Speaker 5: For sure, it's moving from US exceptionalism setting your US 292 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 5: assets to more hag ratios. It definitely moved, let's put 293 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 5: it that way again. At the beginning of January February, 294 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 5: all these events one after another, Venuezuela, Greenland, Mike got 295 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 5: so much happened in three months? 296 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 4: Tell us about it? 297 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 5: Well, Powell's case again, not necessarily selling your US set, 298 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 5: but buying more, buying less, increasing your heratios had become fashionable. 299 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 5: But your very right races my partner and success one 300 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 5: of them. George was head of our effects strategy. He 301 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 5: has this, George, yeah, we all do. He has this 302 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 5: rough formula euro dollars roughly two thirds oil price, one 303 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 5: third gas price. It should have traded around one twelve 304 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 5: fifty one thirteen as we speak, it doesn't. Part of 305 00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 5: the reason is exactly this. Despite what oil is doing, 306 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 5: despite what gas is doing, people do want to own 307 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 5: a little bit less dollars. But unfortunately, as I sit here, 308 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 5: as I come to my old lost every three months 309 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 5: or so wide Shaedasche Bank proudly waving my blue make 310 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 5: europreate again, hat it's in trouble of it. Whether this world, 311 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 5: you know, takes another one week, two week, two months, 312 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 5: the wounds will say, the wounds will especially stay in 313 00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 5: oil and gas prices. We disrupt the supply enough and 314 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 5: the big important with the ones we need those oil 315 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 5: and gas price is lower is Europe. So in an 316 00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 5: understanding way, it's talking about when concent starts becoming more 317 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 5: sense in these on tables and beyond, it's becoming a 318 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 5: bit fashionable to start questioning the European equities, European credits. 319 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 5: Funny enough, it doesn't show as much yet in the effects, 320 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 5: but watch out for the equity and credit angle of 321 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:16,359 Speaker 5: the zurop date. 322 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 2: So this is really important, which is that basically, okay, 323 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 2: there's this long term pessimism about Europe, but there had 324 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:28,640 Speaker 2: been some optimism recently, and cheaper energy prices certainly help 325 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 2: the relative competitiveness and profitability of the domestic industrial giants 326 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:37,040 Speaker 2: and so forth. But we're going to probably be regardless 327 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 2: of the length of the war, in a period of 328 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 2: structurally higher energy prices, and that continues to build to 329 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 2: the negative side of Europe. So let's talk a little 330 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,639 Speaker 2: bit more about oil, because if you just talk to 331 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 2: the oil analysts who I love, like their hair is 332 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 2: on fire right now and they probably you know, this 333 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 2: is cataclysm. But Brent crude not only is it well 334 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 2: off its highes from a week ago, it's not even 335 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: anywhere close to it ties in twenty twenty two at 336 00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 2: the peak of the inflation. I mean, we got at 337 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 2: one point in March twenty twenty two, Brent crude was 338 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 2: at one thirty nine. We're below ninety nine. Actually right 339 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 2: now when I'm talking about this, the thing is like, oh, 340 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: you close the straight of hormones oil just explodes, et cetera. 341 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 2: We all know it, we all see it. There is 342 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 2: nothing that any of us. You can be online all 343 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 2: day and talk to all the energy experts. You are like, 344 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 2: you do not know more information than the market does. 345 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 2: So talk to us like how you're thinking about oil 346 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 2: and the fact that there does seem to be this 347 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 2: gap between the hair on fire rhetoric of the oil 348 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 2: and oers versus the prices which are high but even 349 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 2: by the scille last five years not i'msand. 350 00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 5: I was as the question was coming. I was preparing 351 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 5: for my next but first of all, on the oil 352 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 5: on fire. We all see and respect Jeff Curry what 353 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 5: he said about molecules and interesting people are watching right. 354 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 5: Did you see the tweet of head of Iran Parliament? 355 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you also he usually you can't print molecule exactly. 356 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 2: This is another thing. He also referred to another thing 357 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 2: as fake news. Everyone around the world is now talking 358 00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 2: the same. That actually reminds me of a friend who 359 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 2: visited Afghanistan and he met some people working for the Taliban, 360 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 2: and like they started what's happening him like Pepe the 361 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 2: frog names and they called him a soy boy and 362 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 2: stuff like that, like everyone talks the same way anyway, 363 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,360 Speaker 2: A bit of a divergence, but a little. 364 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 4: Bit depressing that this is the common liguage. 365 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:28,800 Speaker 3: Now, this is the lingua frank of the internet. 366 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 5: We all everyone, but this physical versus paper, the papers trading. 367 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,719 Speaker 5: He's very very important. So this friend of mine, ex collegue, 368 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 5: I worked with him for decades, big commoditistrators. Now a 369 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 5: dear client and you know one of these guys he 370 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 5: talks to meth t Russia's mit execuse. He sends me 371 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 5: a message and we are now even one more weekly. 372 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 3: This is last week. 373 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 5: And he doesn't do on high all the times on 374 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 5: High on if it's not starting to open in one 375 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 5: month now three weeks, the world has a huge, huge, 376 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 5: huge problem. And this is not all on this guy 377 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 5: doesn't say, yeah, kutart ELNGI will need months to restart 378 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 5: once rooms is clear. And in all we have ten 379 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 5: millibytes of shuttings already, and Asian Refinance are very very 380 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 5: start pipelines to date CEA would take years and also 381 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 5: are not a panacea. 382 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 3: Et cetera. 383 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 5: That he talks about woties, so I get it brand 384 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 5: versus what WTIWTI is trading even better, etcetera, etcetera. But 385 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 5: especially if the like so far is correct, if we 386 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 5: have a lot of talk. But one way another, this 387 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 5: rumos is only two three tanks, you know, Yeah, one 388 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 5: Indian tank, one China tank. I do fear that these 389 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 5: guys warning us about physical deliberty maybe more right? 390 00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, And look, of course, and I get the largic 391 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 2: But the people in the oil market who are trading, 392 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 2: whether they're speculators or they're hedge funds, whether they're real 393 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 2: oil companies who are having the hedge production, they have 394 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 2: a lot of money at all, and they know all 395 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 2: of this. There is nothing that can be said about 396 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,960 Speaker 2: the longer this goes on blah blah blah, the more 397 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: they get shut in blah blah blah, running out of storage. 398 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 2: It's going to take time to rebuild. There's nothing they 399 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 2: could be said. And yet here we are. 400 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,719 Speaker 3: And I respect their approach as well. 401 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,879 Speaker 5: This comes back to also why equities haven't sold off 402 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 5: that much, why credit hasn't sold off that much. At 403 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 5: the end of the day, Okay, it may not be venezuela, 404 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 5: we didn't find the dirty but I think people do 405 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 5: believe that this squeeze longer squeeze will come and it's 406 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 5: not that easy to fade. So, whether it's is Lamabat, 407 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 5: whether it's Evans meeting somebody in Islamabat, whether President I 408 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,200 Speaker 5: would be surprised in two days saying I need one 409 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 5: more week and you know, creating a delay. People do 410 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 5: believe that in three months time, six months time, that's 411 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 5: the forward all market as well, we will not be 412 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 5: talking about this. We will be talking much more about 413 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 5: AI or private credits. That's why the tale is big. 414 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 5: That's why Okay, another I'm choosing my words carefully as well. 415 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,719 Speaker 5: All but marines are approaching. We're talking about car gu Islands, 416 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 5: these trans clients talk to that ex general, this ex general. 417 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,399 Speaker 5: Some claim that taking control of Foremost once marines are 418 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 5: that are there may not be that difficult. Imagine that 419 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,359 Speaker 5: going wrong. Imagine you know, of course, lives being lost. 420 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 5: But even Joe one or two ships getting kids, these 421 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 5: are not These are not army professionals driving those ships. 422 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 5: These are people on payroll. So even on one gas ship, 423 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 5: one oil ship hit, things can get out of hands 424 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,120 Speaker 5: very very quickly. And that's why, by the way, let's 425 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,639 Speaker 5: think it back to markets. Okay, you have a point. 426 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 5: Oil brand is still below one hundred. But look what 427 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 5: ECB and Bank of England pricing did and they're not 428 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 5: backing away. They're saying Madame Lagart today of course, like 429 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 5: she sounded calm, she didn't say I embraced the three 430 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 5: high pricing, I will hike, but she did say we 431 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:59,440 Speaker 5: will be were watching this. So back to twenty twenty analogies. 432 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 5: People don't want to be seen laid m hm. Things 433 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,720 Speaker 5: can move very, very fest I do. 434 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 4: Want to talk about private credit because I think it's 435 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 4: important and it's kind of gotten overshadowed by the Iran 436 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 4: situation for obvious reasons. But just going back to the 437 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,360 Speaker 4: Taliban and soy boys, which is a sentence I never 438 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,879 Speaker 4: thought I would say on this podcast. I mean, this 439 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 4: is the first like major conflict related market event where 440 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 4: we have both sides to some extent, using AI generated 441 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 4: memes and content to for you know, propaganda purposes to 442 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 4: express their point of view on how the conflict is 443 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 4: going and what they're trying to achieve. I am very 444 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,200 Speaker 4: curious on a trading floor if you're a big investor, 445 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 4: when Iran tweets like a lego video showing Trump doing 446 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 4: something or showing their reaction to Trump doing something. Are 447 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 4: traders watching those and thinking seriously about them. 448 00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 5: Thinking seriously about them. I don't know about them, and 449 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 5: they're watching thereforelding each other the things. But more key 450 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 5: thing is, yeah, people do start to read out the 451 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 5: more credible sources or the more credible reverse signs. In 452 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 5: this day and age, we all translate from Arabic very 453 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 5: very quickly. We do compare what a US source says 454 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 5: on a potential exam about meeting versus what an Iranian 455 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,560 Speaker 5: source says. After a while, you do get a sense 456 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 5: that which Iranian source seems to be more connected than 457 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 5: the other. All of these things are I'm not going 458 00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,400 Speaker 5: to say it makes our job easier, but it makes 459 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 5: our job even more spicy complicated in a way we 460 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 5: do have. Yeah, I completicate your lego and memes is 461 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 5: one extreme, not very useful. But on the useful side, yeah, 462 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 5: there's the Iranian credible journalist is right there on the 463 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 5: table tweeting and telling you look at that, look at this. 464 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 3: That helps you know I'm thinking about your shirt again. 465 00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 2: And the dinners that are scheduled in the golfer that 466 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 2: may or may not happen, which brings me. You know, 467 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,879 Speaker 2: you're someone who is extremely plugged into money in that area, 468 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 2: and there's this question of like, does something change in 469 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,119 Speaker 2: the trajectory about the business of Dubai. There was a 470 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 2: hamlet about millennium. Did you see that they may move 471 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 2: some traders to Jersey? Which, okay, cards on the table 472 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 2: like Dubai probably I've never been. I doubt it's my 473 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:25,920 Speaker 2: cup of tea. 474 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 4: I feel I can say with some certainty that Dubai 475 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,120 Speaker 4: is more fun than well, this. 476 00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:31,879 Speaker 3: Is what I'm saying. 477 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,199 Speaker 2: It looks nicer them what I imagine the island of Jersey is, 478 00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 2: which I just imagine it's very gray and bleak all 479 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 2: the time. I don't know, but I assume, like you know, 480 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 2: do you think there's any of the talk about is 481 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,439 Speaker 2: there going to be a real trajectory and the amount 482 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 2: of money flowing into the golf? 483 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 3: Is that really? Yeah? 484 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 5: Short term and medium to a medium to a manser, 485 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,920 Speaker 5: of course, I do. I have some dear friends that 486 00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 5: be on this industry, the other industries, like I react 487 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 5: anology when I come to New York. Obviously you see 488 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,359 Speaker 5: your clients, but you see your friends in Dubai. You 489 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 5: have to give even more time because there has been 490 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 5: such a move for different funds, taxes, you know the deal. 491 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 5: People do have short term memory, do remember COVID. But 492 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 5: at the same time, of course it would have an effect. 493 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 5: Other areas may try to get some of that influence. 494 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 5: Maybe some of those people go back to London, maybe 495 00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,160 Speaker 5: places like Milan, other areas of Asia gets more interesting. 496 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 5: Absolutely heart goes out to them, but at the same 497 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 5: time it affects the sentiments as well. By the way, 498 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 5: part of the reason why many people got the whole 499 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 5: Iranian thing wrong, warflation and all that, it was that too. 500 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 5: So not only from that Friday night, Saturday morning of 501 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 5: attack to Monday, we didn't get a dirty you know 502 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 5: the way I put it, you know, up to a 503 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 5: lot to face with e C. There was no regime change, 504 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:58,679 Speaker 5: but Iran immediately began hitting GCC. Lifestyles got affected. That 505 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:03,879 Speaker 5: affects sentiments. So way before the worries about inflation and war, 506 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 5: inflation and supply change sly change is sentiment got affected 507 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:12,120 Speaker 5: right there. So my hope and thinking a year from 508 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 5: now when we do the show again, the effect and 509 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 5: power of Dubai and Katar will still be there. But yes, 510 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,439 Speaker 5: in the short term, it's not going away. It's it's 511 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 5: an important market moving factor. 512 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,399 Speaker 2: By the way, did you see that Delcia Rodriguez is 513 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 2: just going to be speaking in Miami at a investment 514 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 2: conference back by Saudi Arabia. I'm just saying, they don't 515 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 2: make communists like they used to. 516 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 4: Let's talk private credit, because we have all these headlines 517 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,800 Speaker 4: coming out about redemption requests and a bunch of funds 518 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 4: limiting those as is there right in the fun documentation. However, 519 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,439 Speaker 4: I am starting to get frustrated with this knee jerk response, 520 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 4: which is you see all these headlines, you know, ares 521 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:11,400 Speaker 4: Apollo curbing withdrawals, and then everyone in private credit is like, well, 522 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 4: this is fine, this is a feature of the system, 523 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,400 Speaker 4: it's not a bug, and obviously investors should have read 524 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,479 Speaker 4: the docs and this is exactly what's supposed to happen. 525 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 4: Whereas to me, it seems very clear there is stress 526 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 4: in private credit regardless of what's actually happening with withdrawals. 527 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,160 Speaker 4: And if you think about private credit as this huge 528 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,359 Speaker 4: asset class that was growing enormously in recent years and 529 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 4: was a major source of credit and financing for companies 530 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,160 Speaker 4: in America. Then it seems very clear to me that 531 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 4: what we should be talking about right now is a 532 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 4: potential tightening of financial conditions as some of that demand 533 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 4: starts to EBB away. How are you thinking about the 534 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 4: private credit space and when you're doing your meetings with investors, 535 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 4: I'm very curious how much time is spent on private 536 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,560 Speaker 4: credit versus Iran right now. 537 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 5: Right before you're on a private credit and ais of 538 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,480 Speaker 5: the world now as immediate headline to you. Last night 539 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 5: when I did a small round table, of course it 540 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,720 Speaker 5: all started of Iran, but I did make sure that 541 00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,840 Speaker 5: we went to private credit. And I'm with fut Tracy 542 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 5: the immediate reaction there from directly involved people to more 543 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 5: macro tourists. It's not systemic. It's not systemic. It's not 544 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 5: two thousand and eight, maybe two thousand and one that 545 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 5: with smaller teacher. That that to me immediately a bit of 546 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 5: an orange sign. Okay, I understand. So it all seems 547 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 5: orderly with troubles are orderly, etcetera, et cetera. But headlines 548 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 5: are not going away. If anything, they are definitely hiding 549 00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 5: behind the Iran at the moment. It would be almost 550 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 5: all what we would be talking about, especially in US, 551 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 5: if it wasn't for Iran. And by the way, because 552 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 5: of that, my blue hat would have done much better 553 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 5: than us. So that's another sad thing, right, It's like 554 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 5: quote unquote US and Israel's war, but Europe and UK 555 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,640 Speaker 5: and rest of the world gets hurt more. But anyway, these 556 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 5: are the new cars we're dealt with. The key thing 557 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 5: to watch is at the moment they claim it's orderly, 558 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 5: you get your money. If it feels more and more 559 00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 5: like this ABC, if you see the headlines, you're not 560 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 5: going to be able to get your money for a while. Then, 561 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 5: first time you mentioned my binkie, I'm very curious to 562 00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 5: see what he says to night on my macro dinner. 563 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,560 Speaker 5: It's a Wednesday macrod big macro Dinner's right, he's still 564 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 5: sticking to its eight thousand y If people cannot take 565 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 5: their money away from private credit and have to sell 566 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 5: something liquid, then watch out for public credits that has 567 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 5: been seeing very resilient, and of course watch out public equities. 568 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 5: So I'm watching that space very carefully. I do understand 569 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 5: why they immediately say it's not systemic. I get it. 570 00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,760 Speaker 5: But you know, okay, maybe it's not two thousand and eight, 571 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 5: but it's maybe something between this two thousand and one 572 00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 5: to two thousand and eight. Also, it's very in to say, yeah, 573 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 5: it's not leverage is not there. Thank god, we may 574 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 5: not see the Northern Rock BBC scenes of two thousand 575 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 5: and seven, two thousand and eight, all these q's and stuff. 576 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 5: It's a more quote unquote one person problem. But what 577 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 5: if it's spreads and spreads and some of the big 578 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 5: US banks start lending less to these friends? What if 579 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 5: insurance companies get hit more and more watch this space. 580 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 5: I think it's a bit too superficial to say it's 581 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 5: not systemic, it's going to be Okay, it's almost like 582 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 5: the bank crisis of two years ago in this place. 583 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 5: I'm more worried on that. 584 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 2: You know, one of the things we're talking about is 585 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 2: there's very violent rate to move and war inflation and 586 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 2: so forth. But one of the things that's emerged in 587 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 2: the last few weeks is there's growing evidence that actually 588 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 2: inflation was reaccelerating even prior to the start of the war. 589 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 2: And so when we look at these moves, we might 590 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 2: attribute some of them to the war itself, and the 591 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 2: pastor of oil prices and the military spending, and that 592 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 2: of course Trump gets another two hundred billion dollars for defense. 593 00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 2: That's more spending that's inflationary. But maybe, like, could it 594 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 2: be that that is actually not the story. That the 595 00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 2: bigger story in raids is simply that the data is 596 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 2: showing that through the end of February there is more 597 00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 2: evidence that inflation was not heading down to two percent 598 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 2: as many people have maybe wishcasters. 599 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,360 Speaker 5: And that's really blow to my heart in terms of 600 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,120 Speaker 5: expectations and stuff, right because quote unquote we almost had 601 00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 5: them on twenty seven close. 602 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,760 Speaker 3: We're a good thing. It was a hurricane. 603 00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 5: It was a hurricane. Obviously much more important than market. 604 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,959 Speaker 5: It's a tragedy for humanity, war, et cetera. But for 605 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 5: the market as well. It was a hurricane. Ty was 606 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 5: a three ninety three. If that NFP printed like that, 607 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 5: maybe we would be talking, yes than your three seventies, 608 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,480 Speaker 5: et cetera. Now, Genie is completely out of the bottle 609 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,560 Speaker 5: for very understandable reasons. Another reason another world I want 610 00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 5: to relate to relate to inflation. And before we wrap 611 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 5: up this whole rationing, that's a big watch out for 612 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 5: Europe in Asia. If this continues like this, if my 613 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 5: Russia and my t friend is right about Humus and 614 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,840 Speaker 5: the problems, after a while people are already talking about 615 00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,640 Speaker 5: look at Philippines headlines today for their airlines. We may 616 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,920 Speaker 5: soon be at a point when some of these Asian 617 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 5: countries can say, look, I need to give energy and 618 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 5: fuel to my very important, famous company, But much more 619 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 5: important than that, I need to give fuel and energy 620 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 5: and electricty to my households. Sorry, I have to choose. 621 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 5: In Europe, we may be told maybe, you know, don't 622 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 5: use that air conditioning too much, work from home, more 623 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 5: travel less, back to my T shirt. Sadly, Dubai cut 624 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 5: on maybe postponed for understandable reasons. But what about Asia? 625 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 5: All these airline prices will shoot up. Maybe for work 626 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 5: I will go, but for leisure maybe there will be 627 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 5: one less trouble. All of this stuff will hurt growth 628 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 5: at the same time, it will need interrational means more 629 00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 5: physical mesages means more inflation expectations. So you know, I'm 630 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 5: not in love with the word taclation. But also I'm 631 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 5: a rational guy. My job is to smell the market. Yeah, 632 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 5: we woke up that taclation. 633 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 2: Fear an urmm. Thank you so much for coming back 634 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 2: on Atlas. Thank you for the T shirt. Always appreciate 635 00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 2: checking in with you, and we'll talk to you again 636 00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 2: soon next quarter. 637 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 3: What do our quarterly? 638 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:08,200 Speaker 5: Wait? 639 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 4: Will you put us on the T shirt? Just one 640 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 4: of your stocks. 641 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 5: You guys, the highlights. 642 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:16,719 Speaker 3: Thanks, thank you so much. 643 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 2: I always love catching up with Ozon. I just find it, 644 00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,919 Speaker 2: you know, it's just incredibly useful to talk to someone 645 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 2: who's always talking to people, for sure, right, like that 646 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,840 Speaker 2: is a valuable thing in its own right. Ozon his 647 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 2: very interesting perspectives. But to be able to just like 648 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:45,879 Speaker 2: channel his like his brilliantt friend what the people said 649 00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,799 Speaker 2: at the Macro dinner last night, always very useful, you know. 650 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,600 Speaker 4: Also to Ozone's point about actual capacity cuts in Asia 651 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 4: and Europe. So, you know, because I travel a lot, 652 00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,160 Speaker 4: and I've lived in different places, I'm on all these 653 00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 4: different random emailing lists for like services and flights and 654 00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:05,000 Speaker 4: airlines and transportation and things like that, and I am 655 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 4: starting to get the fuel surcharge emails. I got one 656 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:12,359 Speaker 4: from an Australian car service that I used once ages ago. 657 00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 4: A lot of Indian airlines are starting to add fuel surcharges, 658 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,400 Speaker 4: like you can see it coming, and it's happening actually, 659 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:20,320 Speaker 4: like pretty quickly. 660 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,920 Speaker 2: I just don't want to travel right now, especially with 661 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 2: all the lines you see in the US. 662 00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:25,560 Speaker 3: Serious. 663 00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:26,479 Speaker 4: Well, that's a separate issue. 664 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:29,320 Speaker 3: It's a separate issue. But I just want to cancel 665 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:30,200 Speaker 3: as much as I can. 666 00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 4: I'll remind you of that the next time we're debating 667 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,440 Speaker 4: whether or not to go to an external event and 668 00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:36,600 Speaker 4: you're like, yeah, I want to go. 669 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 3: I don't want to go right now. I don't want 670 00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:38,880 Speaker 3: to go to anything. 671 00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 2: But anyway, seriously, you know, I do think like this 672 00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 2: is the thing that I think about a lot, which 673 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 2: is that I've always been a take market seriously and 674 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 2: sometimes take them literally guy. 675 00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 3: And I actually really don't. 676 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:53,319 Speaker 4: Like, I know, you're a secret emh bro. 677 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, not even so secret, and I really don't like, 678 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,439 Speaker 2: you know, there will be a headline from the White 679 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 2: House and oil will go down, and everyone will say, oh, 680 00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,480 Speaker 2: the people are so stupid, they're being you know, the 681 00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 2: investors are so stupid, traders are so stupid, there's a 682 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,840 Speaker 2: lie whatever, And I don't know about that. But my 683 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,719 Speaker 2: point is there's a lot of money on the line 684 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:14,799 Speaker 2: for people who are paid to take this very seriously. 685 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,759 Speaker 2: And if oil is trading below one hundred, I take 686 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,400 Speaker 2: that seriously. And I want to understand why there's the 687 00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 2: get because there's nothing that all of us online and 688 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,799 Speaker 2: in the media know that the people with a lot 689 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:28,719 Speaker 2: of money on the line don't know. Right, this is 690 00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 2: a fact, and I do think that's a very interesting 691 00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,279 Speaker 2: point that the people with a lot at stake. Yeah, 692 00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 2: oil's high, but it's certainly not at the hair on 693 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,520 Speaker 2: fire levels that either we even saw in twenty twenty two. 694 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,880 Speaker 4: Well, my guess is that what we're seeing also is 695 00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,640 Speaker 4: a divorce between the financial and the physical. That's true, right, 696 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,720 Speaker 4: So you can you can trade oil futures and assume 697 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,839 Speaker 4: that you're not going to have to take delivery at 698 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,000 Speaker 4: some point. But at the same time, if you're after 699 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,479 Speaker 4: the physical barrels, like, you can't get those at the moment. 700 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 4: So I don't need know how that like actually relates 701 00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:02,200 Speaker 4: to price. 702 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,759 Speaker 2: There's apparently some price that we see. Rory Johnston is 703 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,840 Speaker 2: always quoted about the actual physical price in Oman. 704 00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:09,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, significantly. 705 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,080 Speaker 2: But the two eventually have to merge, right, Like, they 706 00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:12,800 Speaker 2: cannot remain disconnected. 707 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, but not for a while. So I think that 708 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,440 Speaker 4: disconnect is kind of like what's in focus at the moment. 709 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 2: Well, if you're trading front month, oile, you have about 710 00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:21,360 Speaker 2: a month, right. 711 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, fine, But like I think people are betting 712 00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,759 Speaker 4: on like, no, I don't have to worry about it 713 00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,280 Speaker 4: for a month. That's what I'm saying. 714 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 2: Very plausible. It's it's certainly a very very difficult, unusual time. 715 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:35,080 Speaker 3: I mean, oh totally. 716 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:37,040 Speaker 4: And this is the other thing to your point, Like 717 00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,440 Speaker 4: it is very true that the outcome of all of 718 00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:44,719 Speaker 4: this basically hinges on three players and one player in particular, 719 00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,400 Speaker 4: and at any moment in time, you could have someone 720 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 4: come out and announce the ceasefire. Yeah, at which point, 721 00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 4: to Ozan's comments earlier, like you could see an almighty 722 00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,560 Speaker 4: rally just because of positioning going into this, you could 723 00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:00,200 Speaker 4: see a squeeze, like without the agreement. And so I 724 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,839 Speaker 4: think like that's also where a lot of the nervousness 725 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,480 Speaker 4: is coming from, Like no one wants to be caught 726 00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,400 Speaker 4: completely offside if the conflict suddenly ends. 727 00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 2: You know, Ozon used the term badvall, and I think 728 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,319 Speaker 2: that makes sense, which is okay. On one hand, the 729 00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,720 Speaker 2: trading desks. Sure, there's a lot of activity in some sense, 730 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,319 Speaker 2: and so that is a source of profit. On the 731 00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,520 Speaker 2: other hand, this is the type of environment where it's 732 00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,440 Speaker 2: like maybe you just want to stay away, you want 733 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,319 Speaker 2: to keep positions light. If you have a position, you 734 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 2: don't want to like go all in or anything. 735 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:33,439 Speaker 4: That I'm imagining a trader like staring at the Vick's 736 00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 4: curve and going bad. All right, shall we leave it there, 737 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,759 Speaker 4: Let's live it there. This has been another episode of 738 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,400 Speaker 4: the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow 739 00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:44,040 Speaker 4: me at Tracy Alloway. 740 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,800 Speaker 2: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 741 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,320 Speaker 2: Follow our guest Ozon Tarman. He's at Ozon k Tarman. 742 00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,400 Speaker 2: Follow our producers Kermen, Rodriguez at Krman, Arman, dash Oll, 743 00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,680 Speaker 2: Bennett at Dashbot, and kel Brooks at Kelbrooks. And for 744 00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,280 Speaker 2: more Odd Laws content, go to bloomberg dot com slash 745 00:38:59,280 --> 00:38:59,680 Speaker 2: odd Laws. 746 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,920 Speaker 3: For daily news, learnar and all of our episodes. 747 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 2: You can chat about all these topics twenty four to 748 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:08,400 Speaker 2: seven in our discord discord do gg slash odlots. 749 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,160 Speaker 4: And if you enjoy add lots if you like it, 750 00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,880 Speaker 4: when we bring on Ozon to talk about his binki. 751 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,600 Speaker 4: Then please leave us a positive review on your favorite 752 00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 4: podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, 753 00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 4: you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad free. 754 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,520 Speaker 4: All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel 755 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:28,200 Speaker 4: on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.