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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju Us prow read.

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Speaker 2: Enough for running again, So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 4: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The one is left to wada, wide eyed, drilled bibus

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Speaker 2: How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lieba, and

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Speaker 1: joining me in just a second will be my co

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Speaker 1: host and friends Bjay Cunningham and Anthony Debundo as we

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Speaker 1: break down the upcoming ten match slate in the Premier League,

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Speaker 1: take a quick jaunt around Europe. Give out our three

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Speaker 1: leg underdog parlay two hundred and sixty nine to one

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Speaker 1: this week, coming off of a heartbreaking loss last week

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Speaker 1: in which the first two legs got in the barn.

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Speaker 1: The third leg goes up one nil, draw close, but

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Speaker 1: no cigar. But this one will hit obviously it's all

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Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty nine to one bets do and

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Speaker 1: then we'll give out our best bets. But before we

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Speaker 1: get into this party, and reminder that wonder Goal is

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Speaker 1: proudly presented by Bet three sixty five and Bet three

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Speaker 1: six y five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every

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Speaker 1: sport should be epic, every tournament, every game, every point,

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Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 1: you sign up today with promo Code Action and you'll

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Speaker 1: get three hundred and sixty five dollars and bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet just one dollar, whatever sport, whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five, you must

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Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and you must be present

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio or Virginia. And

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Speaker 1: if you or someone you know has a gambling problem

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Speaker 1: and wants help, please call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 1: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply onto the Premier

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Speaker 1: League FUN one in the Northwest at anfield Liverpool's minus

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Speaker 1: three thirty four. I think they'd be playing Nodding a

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Speaker 1: Forest or someone, but no, They're taking on Manchester United,

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Speaker 1: traveling as a nine to one underdog, coming off of

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Speaker 1: a last place finish in the group of the real

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Speaker 1: Group of Death, the Group of Hell in the in

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Speaker 1: the Champions League Group A, finishing behind Byron Munich, Copenhagen

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Speaker 1: and Galatasaraye. The draw here is plus four to seventy five.

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Speaker 3: Go ahead, make the case. We know, we all know who.

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Speaker 1: How can you not bet this team at nine to

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Speaker 1: one because they have.

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Speaker 3: What's left of the team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but they have nobody.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna play the U twenty one, so like they

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Speaker 2: have nobody available, Michael, they don't have any defenders healthy.

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Speaker 2: The man the Premier League guy, I want leg player

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Speaker 2: of the month Harry McGuire, he's injured, Luke Shaw out,

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Speaker 2: Casmiro out, Brunda Fernance spend it. I don't know man

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Speaker 2: like this field honestly, and I know why you're doing

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Speaker 2: this because I think the entire world would honestly be

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Speaker 2: incredibly shocked if this is anything but a Liverpool just

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Speaker 2: absolute slaughter. And I know you thrive in these moments, Michael,

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Speaker 2: and especially against your your hated rivals. I know you

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Speaker 2: love this spot, but there's nobody available for them.

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Speaker 3: I don't mean Ron back in the back, the Evans,

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Speaker 3: Joy Evans. I think we'll start. Yeah, that's fine, it's fine,

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Speaker 3: But the problem is how do they pass? Who passes

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Speaker 3: the ball to who?

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Speaker 2: Because is like.

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Speaker 1: France like so Fernanz's is just everybody's hurt.

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Speaker 4: So they might get Mason mount back right, but he

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Speaker 4: doesn't really pass. Uh mcdommin a doesn't pass Luke really

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Speaker 4: good ball progressing left back. He's not playing probably, I

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Speaker 4: would assume, based on the injury on Wednesday.

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Speaker 3: On Tuesday. Yeah, I mean it's really embarrassing.

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Speaker 4: There there's a chart out there, and this is really

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Speaker 4: interesting because United has switched how they're playing a little

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Speaker 4: bit because of this mcdommoney revolution where they're pushing mcammony

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Speaker 4: further forward and kind of dropping Bruno further back. And

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Speaker 4: I get it, Like, you know, mcamay scored a bunch

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Speaker 4: of goals for this team, and he's provided some box

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Speaker 4: touches and scores and if you go by x G

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Speaker 4: P ninety this season, Rashford's at point three eight. He

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Speaker 4: leads the club mctommin a point three to four Hoyland

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Speaker 4: point twenty nine in the prem this year, but mcdommany

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Speaker 4: offers zero from a passing range perspective, and so does

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Speaker 4: Mount If he plays am Rabot is okay, they might

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Speaker 4: play Cobby May. I knew who's been okay, but like

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Speaker 4: really young, you're gonna ask him to go to Liverpool

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Speaker 4: and be like a one man midfield. It's really scary,

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Speaker 4: and I think we're underrating Bruno. Like the line moved

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Speaker 4: heavily if you fought him in the app. I grabbed

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Speaker 4: Liverpool early here at once Bruno was suspended and this

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Speaker 4: I figured this line, which is gonna keep running. I

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Speaker 4: have no intention of coming back on United. Now Bruno

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Speaker 4: is at point three to six x a per ninety.

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Speaker 4: That's double like the next regular starter for United, which

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Speaker 4: is Anthony and Garnacho right around like point one eight

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Speaker 4: point two.

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Speaker 3: So it's like the whole team the guy.

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Speaker 4: Like we think like United could hit them on the break,

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Speaker 4: but somebody has to play the pass for that to happen,

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Speaker 4: and they don't have anybody that can do that.

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Speaker 3: It's literally just gonna be a.

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Speaker 4: Long balls, prayers, Hollywood balls up to Rashford and Hoyland

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Speaker 4: trying to hold up play like at anfield.

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Speaker 1: It feels like.

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Speaker 3: A real disaster. And I mean we've talked about this before.

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Speaker 3: They they don't win these matches.

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Speaker 4: They haven't one on the road against any team in

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Speaker 4: the top half of the table under Tannak. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I think the numbers too inflated to play Liverpool now,

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Speaker 4: but I think the number is reflective of where it

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Speaker 4: should be given given the situation without any of their

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Speaker 4: players or any.

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Speaker 1: Good it's there. It's a mess, but total mess. It's

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Speaker 1: it's still too high and you I mean you just

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Speaker 1: said it right, Like it's just moved too much.

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Speaker 2: This might even move more like United could be eleven

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Speaker 2: to one or something like that by the time when

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Speaker 2: we reached the match. Quite frankly, this.

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Speaker 4: Is just compare if you compare some of the closes

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Speaker 4: you know that we've seen for United recently, Like this

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Speaker 4: number doesn't make a ton of sense.

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Speaker 3: But again, like Bruno is their best player, yeah he's

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Speaker 3: and there's no replacement.

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Speaker 4: There's not one player at the club that could walk

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Speaker 4: in there today play this match. And I would say, yes,

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Speaker 4: that guy could do something to what Bruno does for

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Speaker 4: this team, but they don't.

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Speaker 1: But they don't have They can like play, They're not

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Speaker 1: going to be idiotic. They can play a match or

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Speaker 1: a style that's gonna be more conducive of the eleven

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Speaker 1: that they could play, right, so they can I think

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Speaker 1: the Yeah, with Amrabat and mcdonmmon at, you can sit

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Speaker 1: back and just just absorb as much as you can.

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Speaker 1: And I know the defensive numbers aren't good, but this

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Speaker 1: is still There's still gonna be enough talent on the

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Speaker 1: on the field for United to justify a bet here.

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 4: I think the only way to really make this make

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Speaker 4: sense for United is if they do try to just

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Speaker 4: shut it down. Yeah, and like park the bus, and

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Speaker 4: I think that would lead to the under.

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Speaker 3: If you can stomach it.

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Speaker 4: I do think the totals a touch inflated, just because

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Speaker 4: I really don't have this United attack priced it pretty

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Speaker 4: much anything. I mean, Hoyland, we talked about him, he's

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Speaker 4: getting If you combine Champions League and PREM, his numbers

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Speaker 4: don't look as bad point four to one xt g

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Speaker 4: P ninety at United so far it's not too bad,

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Speaker 4: but just Prem alone, it's point two nine. It's pretty

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Speaker 4: bad for a striker at I suppose the top six club.

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Speaker 3: I just look. They could prove me wrong and I'll

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Speaker 3: laugh and I'll be out a bunch of money because

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Speaker 3: I pretty hit pretty minus two ten pretty hard.

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Speaker 4: But like the the idea that this team is going

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Speaker 4: to score outside of like a terrible fluke is surprising

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Speaker 4: to me. And I think they're going to set up

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Speaker 4: extremely passively because it's the only choice they have.

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Speaker 1: So yep, that's what I'm hoping. That's what I'll be

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Speaker 1: hoping for all right to night.

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Speaker 4: And a half is one minus one of five best

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Speaker 4: number under, so you know, maybe it's like a two nail.

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Speaker 3: Liverpool can see that, maybe two to.

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Speaker 1: One onto Friday now, so that United Liverpool game is

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Speaker 1: Sunday at eleven thirty. We do have some Friday night

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Speaker 1: lights with Notting Force and Tottenham's hot Spur Forest plus

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Speaker 1: three seventy five Spurs minus one fifty on the road

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Speaker 1: and the draw here is plus three twenty. It does

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Speaker 1: feel like this is going to be a team playing

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Speaker 1: for it's coaches job. With Forrest who have not one

175
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Speaker 1: in quite a while. They did earn a drug against

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Speaker 1: Wolves last weekend. But there it does seem like just

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Speaker 1: the attitude around the team, like Cooper doing yeah, it

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Speaker 1: does seem like it's coming. And the owners I want

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Speaker 1: to call them the most sane individual.

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Speaker 3: But I do it the first time.

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Speaker 1: Probably is this is like a of if you were

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Speaker 1: to pick your opponent as a as a manager, that

183
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Speaker 1: you would want to have a kind of a resounding

184
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Speaker 1: job saving win. You know, you'd want a decent opponent,

185
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Speaker 1: like not like an also ran walking into your building,

186
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Speaker 1: but but a team where you can say, look, this

187
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Speaker 1: is this is proof that this is my you know

188
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Speaker 1: it's working. We just beat Tottenham and Totenham's obviously flawed.

189
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Speaker 1: So if you're not going up against City or Arsenal

190
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Speaker 1: or something where your chances of footing would be a

191
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Speaker 1: lot slimmer. So I actually think Forrests are fine here

192
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Speaker 1: for a bet at home. Spurs can get beat still

193
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Speaker 1: too leaky defensively, they'd play a pretty high risk style,

194
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Speaker 1: so I don't know they look vulnerable here coming off

195
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Speaker 1: of what we saw last weekend. Anthony, this is this

196
00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:20,600
Speaker 1: is your this is your spot. This is you called

197
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Speaker 1: that United at anfield or BJ you did that. That's

198
00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,840
Speaker 1: like right, in my wheelhouse, this one going up going

199
00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:32,679
Speaker 1: against Spurs in this kind of situation where they're laying

200
00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,960
Speaker 1: a decent number on the road after a win that

201
00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,920
Speaker 1: looked really good on paper, it gets a very depleted

202
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,160
Speaker 1: Newcastle team. This is uh, this is probably the time

203
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Speaker 1: to fade Tottenham.

204
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Speaker 4: It might be I'm concerned about the rumors coming out

205
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Speaker 4: of Forest. Do they want to play for Steve Cooper's job?

206
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Speaker 2: Is that?

207
00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:49,480
Speaker 3: Is that clear to me?

208
00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,200
Speaker 4: Because it doesn't seem clear to me based on like

209
00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,640
Speaker 4: just looking through kind of the performance. And I watched

210
00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:55,800
Speaker 4: a good bit of the Wolves game and like they

211
00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,640
Speaker 4: got the draw, but that was more about Wolves attack

212
00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,559
Speaker 4: just kind of being flat. I didn't feel like Forrests

213
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,559
Speaker 4: are really all in there now.

214
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Speaker 3: Granted you know it's.

215
00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:08,480
Speaker 4: Home Forest and their home waste splits have been pretty dramatic.

216
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,040
Speaker 4: Taiwo being out I think really does hurt this team,

217
00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,800
Speaker 4: and they're not getting the same production from their backups

218
00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,559
Speaker 4: behind him. From a numbers perspective, I do show value

219
00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,720
Speaker 4: on Forest. I have generally been higher than them, I

220
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Speaker 4: think than the market. But I don't love to hear

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Speaker 4: this stuff about the manager, like the stuff behind the

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Speaker 4: scenes that like they are playing to get Cooper fired

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Speaker 4: so they can get somebody else in there. The players

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Speaker 4: have had it with him and that it's gotten stale

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Speaker 4: and like that is scary.

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Speaker 3: So I do think that makes his high variance. Because

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Speaker 3: if you like Forest and.

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Speaker 4: Think they're gonna give it a go at home, probably

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Speaker 4: should just take them on the money line. I don't

230
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Speaker 4: love the like, let me grab a half goal here,

231
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Speaker 4: because if it does get ugly, it could snowball against

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Speaker 4: this Forest team. Another thing, you know, Tottenham did do

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Speaker 4: some tweaking, and I thought it was really interesting. They

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Speaker 4: played a good match against west Ham. They had two

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Speaker 4: like the most fluky you know, we haven't talked since then,

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Speaker 4: because if we did a Wednesday show and they played

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Speaker 4: Thursday and then they played Sunday, they had two like

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Speaker 4: the most fluky, hilarious deflection goals that gave up high

239
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Speaker 4: XC chances but like weren't real chances conceded in that

240
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Speaker 4: west Ham match that they blew it. I thought they

241
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Speaker 4: played pretty well in large stretches of that match, and

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Speaker 4: I thought they played really well on Sunday against Newcastle

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Speaker 4: granted its road. Newcastle with a backup defense and Kieran

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Speaker 4: trip are getting rinsed, but they moved Koloseevsky inside and

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Speaker 4: then played with Charleston on the up front and then

246
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Speaker 4: put Sonny on the left and Johnson on the right

247
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Speaker 4: and Kouloseevsky kind of took over the Madison role. And

248
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Speaker 4: I think it's interesting because Kolosseevski is a winger, but

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Speaker 4: he doesn't really have any pace, right, He's not going

250
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Speaker 4: to beat you for pace get to the byline. So Todtenham,

251
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Speaker 4: we're having all of these problems where it's like we

252
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Speaker 4: get the ball to the final third and then we

253
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Speaker 4: have nobody who can beat a man off the dribble.

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Speaker 4: We don't have an elite striker to create space for

255
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Speaker 4: himself for the penalty area because Charlaston's just kind of

256
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Speaker 4: a guy and it's just like all right, let's just

257
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Speaker 4: force it the sun and see what happens. And that

258
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,920
Speaker 4: wasn't really working. So you can be passive and like

259
00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,839
Speaker 4: slow down this Tottam team. Madison was the key to

260
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Speaker 4: on locking that. With him out, it was like, now, what,

261
00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,560
Speaker 4: Koulosowski's kind of that guy. He's got the second most

262
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,000
Speaker 4: pass into the penalty area in the prem By the way,

263
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Speaker 4: Bruno's first fourteen ahead of everybody else.

264
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Speaker 3: So I think this is forrest or nothing.

265
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Speaker 4: I think they can sit deep, tactically make this really

266
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Speaker 4: hard for Spurs, hit them on the brake. You're gonna

267
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,680
Speaker 4: have opportunities against this team. But I'm just concerned about

268
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,320
Speaker 4: the Cooper thing. So I'm gonna save this this bet

269
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Speaker 4: for later because of the highvariance nature of it.

270
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Speaker 1: PJ Anything here, Yeah, yeah, I do like Forest here.

271
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Speaker 2: It is like Andy said, it is a little concerning

272
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Speaker 2: the rumors coming out. I have no idea how true

273
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Speaker 2: they are and if they want to keep Steve in

274
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Speaker 2: there or not. But what we've seen from Tottenham against

275
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,959
Speaker 2: passive low blocks this season hasn't really been all that great.

276
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Speaker 2: So obviously, recently against west Ham they always scored once

277
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Speaker 2: created one point expected goals off of twenty three shots.

278
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,840
Speaker 2: They went to Palace score twice, created one point one

279
00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 2: expected goals that was with James Madison, and then against

280
00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,520
Speaker 2: Fulham again only created one point five And quite frankly,

281
00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 2: those two huge chances that they got and the two

282
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:13,520
Speaker 2: goals they scored came off of high turnovers and nottingam.

283
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,160
Speaker 2: Forest is really not going to give you an opportunity

284
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Speaker 2: to get a high turnover because they're just going to

285
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 2: punt the ball along. And I find it very interesting

286
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:22,160
Speaker 2: with Nottingham Forest because they, you know, after the lost

287
00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 2: of Liverpool, they have run bad defensively. You know, obviously

288
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 2: over this over the last six matches thirteen goals allowed

289
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,400
Speaker 2: off at eight point unexpected. But they benched Matt Turner,

290
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 2: who is you know, by trade a shot stopper for

291
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:39,040
Speaker 2: Vlacha Demos who came over from Benefica. He's currently dead

292
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,240
Speaker 2: last in the Premier League and post shot actually plus

293
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:45,080
Speaker 2: minus at minus four point one. Yes, so, And I

294
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:46,760
Speaker 2: think really what it comes down to, which he was

295
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:48,520
Speaker 2: very good at Benefica. If you looked through his numbers

296
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,240
Speaker 2: at Benefica, he was plus every single season. And I

297
00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:52,680
Speaker 2: think what it comes down to is he's not a

298
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,720
Speaker 2: goalkeeper that's used to playing in a low block system.

299
00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,120
Speaker 2: You know, Benefica is obviously a very possession based team.

300
00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:00,920
Speaker 2: Out of the chances that opponents will get against them,

301
00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,480
Speaker 2: and you're gonna be in transition, set pieces, et cetera.

302
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 2: And I'm wondering if Forrest should go back to Matt Turner. Yes,

303
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,120
Speaker 2: I know we made a couple of mistakes, but he's

304
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,720
Speaker 2: a much better keeper for their system. So but again,

305
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,040
Speaker 2: their defense is run cold basically because of the goalkeeping.

306
00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,120
Speaker 2: So if the goalkeeper can you know, improve, then yeah,

307
00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,360
Speaker 2: their defense is going to be good good again. And

308
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,920
Speaker 2: so yeah, I mean I have taught him at plus

309
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 2: one sixteen, Like even if you take away the Chelsea match,

310
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,920
Speaker 2: they're like a plus four expected gold frenial team on

311
00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:32,760
Speaker 2: the season, Like that's still not a lead to be

312
00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:34,960
Speaker 2: warranting this number. I mean, we just saw Brighton go

313
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:37,600
Speaker 2: to Forest. They were they opened a plus one twenty

314
00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 2: five and close around plus one fifteen, and I'm taught

315
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 2: them sitting up around minus one forty five, Like it's

316
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 2: kind of crazy. So yeah, I like Forest plus one

317
00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:47,120
Speaker 2: at minus one forty.

318
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna talk about a couple other matches that

319
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,000
Speaker 4: kind of fit this earlier. But like when you get

320
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 4: these crazy wonky results in this high variance period right

321
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,400
Speaker 4: now in December, where like everybody is either injured or

322
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,880
Speaker 4: like gonna have a game where they looked terrible, like

323
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,120
Speaker 4: everybody's going to have one, how the market responds to

324
00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,400
Speaker 4: that is fascinating because this market was minus one ten

325
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:07,600
Speaker 4: and now it's minus one forty and it did move

326
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 4: up eight lot between Sunday's kick, you know, before and after.

327
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 4: So you saw a huge market reaction to a home

328
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 4: win against Newcastle. What is a home win against Newcastle

329
00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 4: worth given that Newcastle team right now?

330
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,240
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't think it's worth just the market.

331
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,080
Speaker 2: It's a completely different opponent.

332
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:28,040
Speaker 3: Too, tactically home and away.

333
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, but again, like just like what the market thinks,

334
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:32,320
Speaker 4: are taught him huge bump and I get it, like

335
00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,240
Speaker 4: they did get healthier. Charlott's a coming back does help

336
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 4: because of the other players that would play in his

337
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:39,040
Speaker 4: place if he was out.

338
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,040
Speaker 3: But like, I don't know, are we overreacting? It feels

339
00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:42,720
Speaker 3: like the market did.

340
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:48,320
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll tackle another North London team, this one on

341
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:53,920
Speaker 1: Sunday morning, Arsenal and Brighton. Arsenal laying minus two twenty

342
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,320
Speaker 1: five at home Seagulls at five to one here and

343
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,040
Speaker 1: a draw would pay four to one courtesy of our

344
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 1: friends at bet three six five. Tough one for you

345
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: to break down your BJ. Yeah, that's a team that

346
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,480
Speaker 1: we've all loved to bet in uh in our history

347
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 1: together right in playing your team, Arsenal. But I think

348
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 1: that you're on the right path.

349
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, I have faded Arsenal twice on the show

350
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 2: so far this season. I am two and zero. I'm

351
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:25,280
Speaker 2: gonna do it a third time, so maybe I'll just

352
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:27,479
Speaker 2: win every single bet against Arsenal and completely cost them

353
00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:28,000
Speaker 2: the title.

354
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 3: What was the first one?

355
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:30,440
Speaker 2: Newcastle?

356
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 3: All right? Yeah, Villa, Newcastle.

357
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 2: Villa and Newcastle were the two, although our thought Arsenal

358
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,919
Speaker 2: was actually pretty good gets as Villa. If we go

359
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 2: back to last season when Arsenal was in free fall,

360
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 2: Brighton put the final nail on the coffin when they

361
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 2: beat them three nothing at the Empirts and it was

362
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 2: really bad performance because they completely beat them up and

363
00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,520
Speaker 2: build up play. Uh you know, Arsenal had to build

364
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 2: a complete percentage about seventy nine percent in that match.

365
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:57,600
Speaker 2: That was one of the lowest of the entire season.

366
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 2: So as we've seen this season, Arsenal can be vulnerable

367
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 2: against good, high pressing teams. The most notable match in

368
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 2: that is Chelsea when they traveled there, they turned them

369
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,000
Speaker 2: all over high nine times. It cost them a couple

370
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 2: of goals because of it, and that could happen here

371
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,400
Speaker 2: at the Emirates. But I think the more interesting dilemma

372
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,920
Speaker 2: of this match is what does Arsenal do out of possession,

373
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 2: because Brighton is obviously a team that baits you into pressing,

374
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,080
Speaker 2: and Arsenal is one of the best pressing teams in

375
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 2: the world. Do they give Brighton what they want and

376
00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,639
Speaker 2: completely and try to press them, or do they do

377
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,320
Speaker 2: a lot of teams have done to Brighton, which is

378
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 2: essentially sit in a very compact, passive central block and

379
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 2: narrow and cut Brighton from playing off from playing the

380
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,520
Speaker 2: ball centrally. It's a fascinating dilemma of what Arsenal decides

381
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,479
Speaker 2: to do. I went back and watched a little bit

382
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,639
Speaker 2: of the Brighton match from last season, and essentially what

383
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:51,719
Speaker 2: Brighton did quite a bit is they were a little worried,

384
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 2: I think, of turning them all over high against Arsenal.

385
00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 2: So once they got the ball to the center backs

386
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 2: or even the left back, they just started sending balls

387
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 2: over the top to Metoma and he's got more pace

388
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,680
Speaker 2: than Ben White, so it was kind of working from

389
00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 2: time to time. And I think that they can have

390
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,640
Speaker 2: success doing that here because obviously Arsenal's defense has been

391
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 2: really good. It's very very hard to beat them in transition,

392
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: but balls over the top there have been a couple

393
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:17,679
Speaker 2: instances where teams have been able to get Arsenal for that.

394
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 2: So another stat that I was looking at when I

395
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 2: was interested in is Brighton are obviously one of these

396
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,640
Speaker 2: teams that is really not afraid of any Big six

397
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 2: club especially going on the road. In seven matches under Deservey,

398
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,879
Speaker 2: going away to Big six clubs, Brighton has a plus

399
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,879
Speaker 2: two point three expected bulfferential like that is incredibly impressive.

400
00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,439
Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot of things tackically that

401
00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,359
Speaker 2: Brighton can do. It'll be interesting to see if they

402
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,880
Speaker 2: actually try to build up through Arsenal or what Arsenal

403
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,639
Speaker 2: does out a possession. But in the end, I mean

404
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,120
Speaker 2: Arsenal's way over valued here. I only have Arsenal minus

405
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 2: one thirty eight. Brighton continues to be underpriced by the market,

406
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,159
Speaker 2: I believe, and there's going to be continued to be

407
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,320
Speaker 2: times to bet on them, and this is going to

408
00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:04,479
Speaker 2: be one of them. So Brighton plus one plus one

409
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,320
Speaker 2: a weight for me numbers just too high on Arsenal

410
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: and anything. I know, it's going to go through all

411
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:11,919
Speaker 2: the offensive problems for Arsenal. But Brighten's defense has been

412
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,000
Speaker 2: really good as well, Like they've really improved. So yeah,

413
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 2: Brighton plus one and plus one eight.

414
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've already talked about Arsenal's attack.

415
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 4: I think they are better with Jazus, Like it's very

416
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 4: obvious if you watch them and how much he links

417
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 4: to play, and then their attack can be closer to

418
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 4: that level that they need to be at to win

419
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,720
Speaker 4: the title if they want to do that, to think

420
00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 4: they do. But I'm interested in like comparing. First of all,

421
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 4: like Brighton have been downgraded clearly by the market. This

422
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 4: match you mentioned, the main match, the close Arsenal was

423
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 4: minus one thirty on the money line. Now they're minus

424
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 4: two twenty five, you said, Michael, if this gets up

425
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 4: to like.

426
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:51,840
Speaker 3: Plus a goal in a quarter, I will hop in

427
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 3: on Brighton.

428
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 4: Brighton's only played one match this year in which they

429
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 4: lost the expected goals non penalty by more than point

430
00:20:57,280 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 4: seventy five, and it was west Ham in a classic

431
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:06,400
Speaker 4: like match week three transition. Like everything Brighton was doing

432
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 4: the first couple of match weeks got exposed and they

433
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 4: have adjusted since and kind of become more pragmatic in

434
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 4: a way.

435
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 3: Yep, But I think they're certainly live here.

436
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 4: I think Arsenal remains like a really tricky team to price,

437
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,679
Speaker 4: but one that I think generally is more likely at

438
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 4: the top of their market. And that's evident in just

439
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,480
Speaker 4: like the comparing of the price from the close this

440
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: year to what it was in May. Brighton's obviously worse.

441
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 4: But how much worse, you know, that's the question. So

442
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,400
Speaker 4: I do like the goals here, keep the trend going

443
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 4: with us betting every underdog thus far except for United,

444
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 4: even though you bet them.

445
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you look at what Brighton's done lately, it's

446
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 1: it's not They're not the tour to force that they

447
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: were kind of coming out of the gate when they

448
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 1: won four and five, a couple of big wins against

449
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 1: United and Newcastle. They did have that loss to west

450
00:21:57,119 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 1: Ham sprinkled in there, and then we all thought, wow,

451
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 1: this team is just gonna play this insane kind of

452
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: back and forth cocaine ball for this entire season. They

453
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,680
Speaker 1: just toned it down, which you've got to do over

454
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 1: the course of the season, and only one loss in

455
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: all competitions since October twenty six, which is a span

456
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 1: of over ten games, and that was against Chelsea on

457
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: the road. It's just much more complete, right, yeah, And

458
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 1: it's just much more complete. I would say like this,

459
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: this is the time to get in. I would suggest

460
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 1: they do have a match on Thursday against Marseille. But

461
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: I'm not too worried about it. I think that this

462
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: is a good spot. So yeah, I'll back another underdog here, Deserve.

463
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,120
Speaker 4: He's been doing a ton of rotating the Europa League.

464
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 4: You know, they've already advanced, but it does matter whether

465
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 4: you win the group or not in the Europa League

466
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 4: because you get that buye to the next round. If

467
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,159
Speaker 4: they want to go deep in that competition, that's a

468
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 4: pretty big buye. But like I said, we've seen DESERVEI

469
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 4: rotate so much, and they have enough depth even though

470
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 4: with all the injuries that I think they'll be okay.

471
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,959
Speaker 1: All right, let's keep moving along. Here born with minus

472
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: two hundred amazing high flying cherries.

473
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:15,120
Speaker 2: Hundreds.

474
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 4: You guys, you guys tried to tell me I was

475
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,280
Speaker 4: wrong about Ariola.

476
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 1: I never died and fired, and we were like, you

477
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 1: gotta stay patient with me. I let him, let us,

478
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: let us do, let him do his thing, Let him

479
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 1: do his thing, and you and we were ready.

480
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 3: Just look like a great team. Now there's some schedule

481
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 3: adjusted stuff in there, but.

482
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 4: They look like a great team, and they showed that

483
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 4: when they played even with Manchester United, a mid table

484
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,560
Speaker 4: Premier League team last week. Uh, playing even with them

485
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 4: on XG is a sign that they're just only you know,

486
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 4: around the man United's level nowadays. So what that means

487
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 4: I don't know, but it's encouraging. They might finish twelfth.

488
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 4: Tenth is not out of the question.

489
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: By the way.

490
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see.

491
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 3: But that also, pribamely means we're at the peak of

492
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 3: the market on Bournemouth and.

493
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 1: Right, So let's have that conversation now. So they're they're

494
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: lying minus two hundred, they are hosting Lutontown or five

495
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 1: to one, and the draws is plus three fifteenth. It's

496
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: hard to to kind of new, especially in soccer. I

497
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 1: think in other sports it's maybe a little easier to

498
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 1: quantify teams just that that are scrappy. But that is

499
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 1: the Uh, that's that's the biggest compliment I would give

500
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: this Lutontown team. We saw it against City too. I

501
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: mean they've now lost back to back one goal matches

502
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: against Arsenal and man City and they were lucky this

503
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: The score line flatters them. I get that, but that's

504
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: still worth something to me when you are the nineteenth

505
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 1: best team in the league. Uh so not twentieth, No,

506
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:45,959
Speaker 1: definitely not twentieth.

507
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 3: This is a spot something.

508
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: That's just what I'm gonna say. Like everything's pointing to

509
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: Bourne with here, and like you just said, Anthony, that's

510
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: probably when you want to take a deep breath and

511
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: consider going the other way.

512
00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: But I'll just pass.

513
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that's probably the most pragmatic thing to

514
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,719
Speaker 1: do here when when we're all betting Man United at

515
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 1: nine to one instead, j what do you got?

516
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 2: I like the over I mean, the hybrid press is

517
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 2: working now. They're Bournemouth turning people over high. They're creating

518
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 2: all these opportunities and it's it's great. Everything's awesome, Like

519
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,719
Speaker 2: we got people making videos about a roola now, like

520
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 2: it's things are good on the South Coast. But I

521
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 2: think there's still some problems in transition defense here for Bournemouth,

522
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: and if they're going to play a team like Lutontown

523
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: that's gonna send the ball along every single time, there's

524
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: a chance that Lutontown could could potentially get them. You know,

525
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: Bournemouth's Pourtmouth has been very average at defending crosses. So

526
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: that's the path for Loutontown is sending the ball along,

527
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,239
Speaker 2: playing a transition and potentially you know, getting Born Withuth

528
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:52,879
Speaker 2: that way. But man, this Bournemouth offense is they're cooking

529
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 2: right now. I mean there's no other way to go.

530
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 2: Last five matches, ten point six expected goals, eight big

531
00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 2: scoring chances. Solonkey's having unbelie evil season point five to

532
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 2: three actually for nine e minute scoring rate. And for Lootontown,

533
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 2: I mean they've been so bad defensively because they're just

534
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 2: not good in a low block setting, like teams are

535
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 2: just playing right through them. It just happens over and

536
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 2: over and over again. We've seen they've played a lot

537
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 2: of a tough schedule recently, so we have to you know,

538
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 2: kind of downplayed a little bit. But over the last

539
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,439
Speaker 2: nine matches half conceded twenty five point three expected goals

540
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 2: in nineteen big scoring chances. That is really really bad,

541
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 2: and especially facing an offense like Bournemouth, I think this

542
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 2: is gonna be one way traffic. And especially if Born

543
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 2: the scores early, it's gonna open Lootontown up. It's gonna

544
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: make this match very back and forth. Plus louton Town's

545
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 2: gonna be without Marvelous Nakamba, who is their best ball

546
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,400
Speaker 2: stopping midfielders, so that's another problem for them. And Kaminski

547
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 2: the goalkeeper has been let's just say running hots as.

548
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 3: A shot stopper, so that would be an understatement.

549
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I like the over over three at anything

550
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 2: plus money. I played over two and a half. There's

551
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,479
Speaker 2: a minus one forty out there that I played. But well,

552
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 2: what's the first goal goes in for Bourne meth I

553
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: really don't see a scenario. Wow, this just doesn't either

554
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 2: snowball for Luton or they just try to throw forward

555
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 2: to try to score. Either way, I'm expecting a lot

556
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 2: of chaos. And I actually projected three point four goals

557
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 2: for this match, so I'd be like over two and a.

558
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 4: Half at Bournemouth cook Baby fourteenth in the league. They

559
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 4: finished their first half of the round rob with Luton,

560
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 4: Forrests and Fulham. Then they go to Spurs and they

561
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 4: have Liverpool at home after the break, so there's gonna

562
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 4: they're gonna take some scalps here in the second half.

563
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 4: I mean, they they beat Newcastle already, they beat Man United,

564
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 4: that's it.

565
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 3: But they're gonna have chances here.

566
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 4: They get a Liverpool at home, they get City at home,

567
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,160
Speaker 4: they get United at home. They might be our favorite

568
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 4: in that game. They get brightened at home like they're

569
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 4: gonna pick off somebody here.

570
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,719
Speaker 1: In preview, what did we say about them, Like they

571
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 1: have potential to be brent Brentford the best of.

572
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 3: The blob, right, and I think they are them And

573
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,640
Speaker 3: Everton we I mean we you know those blob.

574
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: Everton has graduated from that blob. They're they're they're they're

575
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 1: they're making They just need they just need second But

576
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 1: the season Evertten just needs their lawyers to do that,

577
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: do a good job, and they could be challenging for

578
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 1: the title. All right, Chelsea and Sheffield United next, This

579
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: one pretty easy to pass on for me. Uh the

580
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 1: Blues are laying minus four fifty at home, Sheffield traveling

581
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 1: as a twelve minus four fifty underdog and there.

582
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,120
Speaker 2: They're so bad. They are so bad.

583
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 4: Okay, here's the thing, right, so we talked about this.

584
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 4: This is a historically bad team and the bottom three

585
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 4: are historically bad. But there is a bypoint on every team.

586
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 4: And I know we joke around a lot of a

587
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 4: lot like Sheffield with Wilder right, they covered almost covering

588
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 4: like they held them out. They got they got to

589
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 4: one x G against Liverpool. Probably should have covered that match,

590
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 4: you know, pushed in stoppage time if you bet them.

591
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 4: They then covered in one over the weekend at home

592
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 4: against Brentford, and you know, I thought the market didn't

593
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 4: really downgrade them enough Brentford for and Waimou and I

594
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 4: ended up staying away. But like Lowton has back to

595
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 4: back covers now against Arsenal and City. Burnley has been

596
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 4: competitive even these right, you know, just covered against Brighton.

597
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 4: So all of the ship teams covered last weekend. You know,

598
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 4: there's always a bypoint and I think if if you

599
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 4: were looking at like when could that come like Sheffield

600
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: against you know, Chelsea in the middle of this fixture

601
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 4: pile up Chelsea, you know, do have a cup match

602
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 4: coming up?

603
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 3: Like I don't know the Blues at this point in

604
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 3: the season.

605
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 4: Now they have a even expected gold differential and if

606
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 4: you take out that Tottenham Fluke match, their XG difference

607
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 4: per ninety minutes in eleven on eleven this season eighth best.

608
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 4: Just like, nothing special about this team and the market

609
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 4: has not downgraded them enough yet.

610
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 2: Nope.

611
00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: Two wins a draw and uh, think about that performance.

612
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: I will.

613
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: It will take me so long to understand what happened

614
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 3: to them at United. That is one of the worst

615
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: performances relative expectation. You'll we will see this entire season.

616
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 3: And actually one of the other ones we're gonna talk

617
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 3: about in a minute when we get to the city.

618
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 3: But crazy, how bad they are?

619
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 2: How are they? Yeah, it's just like, how are they

620
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: laying a goal against Brighton? And how are they favoring

621
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: against Everton at this current jumpture. I just really don't

622
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 2: especially the road on the road and guess what, uh yeah,

623
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: Chelsea's got they're overvalued.

624
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 3: Then they're probably still overvalued.

625
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 2: Now Chelsea's got Newcastle coming up in the Cup too.

626
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 3: Yep, it could be wonderful Sheffield.

627
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 4: That's one of those like Betett, don't watch the match,

628
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 4: see what happens. That's and you're starting to hear Pochacino

629
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 4: make the claims now too, like January, like Bully tried

630
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 4: the baseball model right like and but you don't have

631
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 4: a farm system. You can't like put the in the

632
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 4: minor leagues and play them there. You could loan them out,

633
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 4: but they didn't do that.

634
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: They're all remember a time, I know, I know, I

635
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: know I had that job and you were like this, No,

636
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: he's not, he's a he's a I didn't deny that

637
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: he was a nut job.

638
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 2: I was.

639
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 3: I denied he was enough of a nut job to

640
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 3: sack Graham Potter, and he was.

641
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: He was.

642
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 3: He was more of a nut job than I thought.

643
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: I find it. I find it very hilarious that they're

644
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 2: giving out He gave out all these eight year contracts

645
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 2: and all the players like contact their agents like get

646
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 2: me out of here, and like can't. It's like nobody's

647
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 2: gonna take your at your contract.

648
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 4: It's it's it's a fascinating effort that they made. But yeah,

649
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 4: this they're not dysfunctional.

650
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 2: They just don't.

651
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 4: They're just not as good as the market things they are.

652
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 4: I w I went on a friend of the pod

653
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 4: show last week with Nick Costos and and I was

654
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 4: he's a fan. I was like, Chelsea is Price is

655
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 4: the fourth best team in the league?

656
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 3: Do you think they are? He's like no, I'm like,

657
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 3: then you should just bet against him every week. We

658
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:54,600
Speaker 3: want to know.

659
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 4: So far with after Everton beat them, beat the hell

660
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: out of him this weekend, like, what are we suppose

661
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 4: to do here? I don't care who they're playing.

662
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 1: Really, I know it's tough, and you talked about like

663
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: a bypoint in it and you, I guess if you

664
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 1: make the argument that's more bet against Chelsea than a

665
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: bet on Sheffield United, you can start to get there.

666
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: But like Sheffield United's results have been okay relative to

667
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 1: what they were for the first they're still horrible, yeah,

668
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 1: but terrible.

669
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 4: But yeah, but when they're catching multiple goals every match,

670
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 4: it's still the man.

671
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: I know if I say this, if Sheffield United gets

672
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 2: to plus two at a decent number, I will play them.

673
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 2: We're not there yet, but if we get there, I

674
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: will be there no.

675
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 3: Matter what, no matter what.

676
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 1: All right, we'll move on to City and Palace. This

677
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: one as well likes yeah, that's his City is minus six,

678
00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 1: Hudred Palace fourteen to one on the money line and

679
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: the draws seven to one.

680
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 4: I don't have much here. No Colin plays my under

681
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 4: bet that already made is not great. He doesn't play.

682
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 4: I love my under bet at three and a half.

683
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 4: Keep tabs on him, don't. Who's going to miss Grealish's

684
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 4: back Roger's back. You They said they expect Holland back

685
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 4: Thursday and training, but they're not sure he'll make the weekend.

686
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: Who knows.

687
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:11,239
Speaker 3: Personally, I think they can beat him. They can beat

688
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 3: Palace without him.

689
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 4: I think they should probably rest him, but you never

690
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 4: know that pet elies a lot about that stuff, keep

691
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 4: tabs on him. It's a huge difference in the market

692
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 4: on how good the team is with with without like

693
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 4: the best striker in the league.

694
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, and Palace is a complete mester right now,

695
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: like they have nobody available. Edward is out that both

696
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 2: Johnstone and Dean Henderson an ounce we've got a third

697
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 2: choice goalkeeper coming up here against the best team in

698
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:36,680
Speaker 2: the world.

699
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 3: Who played who played like the last ten minutes against

700
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: Liverpool if they were down a man?

701
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, are you?

702
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 3: Are you who underrated?

703
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 4: Are you like does really good defensive work, really good

704
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 4: ball progressor this year better as a winger than a striker,

705
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 4: like he's gonna miss because he's suspended. De Core is

706
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 4: still out.

707
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: I mean, as.

708
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 4: They're managing these says minutes because they're worried Abouthim getting

709
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 4: hurt again.

710
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 2: It's just a it's a complaint. This is like the

711
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: easiest pass the board. I don't even want to even

712
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 2: try to like muster up a bet on Palace and

713
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 2: if Colin doesn't play Ei, there's no way you can

714
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,479
Speaker 2: bet City, so especially at this highland numbers.

715
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: So easiest pass okay, Newcastle on Fulham, all three of

716
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: us looked to be in agreement here, uh banged up depleted.

717
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 3: Cast and say are they depleted now?

718
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: I'm not, but it's okay. So here's the thing. Get

719
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: they might not be like on paper, but they've played

720
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 1: so many games with a depleted roster that like the

721
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: mileage just adds up on guys. I think it's what

722
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 1: it is.

723
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: This is crazy.

724
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: I'm on Newcastle with you guys minus one twenty five

725
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: as on the three way line. But I think that

726
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 1: that's part of why they've looked bad and why we're

727
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 1: catching a good number here. It's like that. Everden the

728
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: Evident match, they just ended up looking gassed. I thought

729
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 1: they looked gassed against Tottenham as well, Like this is

730
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 1: this is a team that but the guys who have

731
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 1: been in the lineup during this stretch of soccer are

732
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: the same guys that have been in the lineup almost

733
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 1: every minute and it's piling up on them. Now. That said,

734
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: we get a chance to bet against Fulham with this

735
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 1: team Fulham on the road, a follow team none of

736
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,439
Speaker 1: us believe in. It's just at this crisis, it looks

737
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 1: like an incredible bet.

738
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, the ultimate Bilo sell high right, Yeah, oh yeah,

739
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 3: there's two of them this week.

740
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, here's things.

741
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 3: Real quick. On Newcastle.

742
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 4: I was watching today they were playing Milan in the

743
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 4: Champions League. I had the TV sound on for Dortmund

744
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 4: PSG on the other TV and I glanced and I'm like,

745
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 4: is that Dan Byrne coming onto the pitch? They ruled

746
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 4: him out for like two months, like yeah, five weeks ago,

747
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 4: and he's just out there. They're like, and then I

748
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 4: saw him, Like all right, I gotta turn the volume on.

749
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 4: They're like, yeah, he broke three bones in his back

750
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 4: like five weeks ago and he's playing and I'm like,

751
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 4: what that feels impossible? And Newcastle played really well when

752
00:35:58,200 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: he was on the pitch, and I know, I know,

753
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 4: got crazy at the end, like they dominated the first hour,

754
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,040
Speaker 4: could have been up two, we're only up one.

755
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 3: Milan got kind of like a fluke goal. It got

756
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 3: to one to one.

757
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 4: And then everybody just put all their strikers on the

758
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 4: pitch at the same time and said one of us

759
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 4: needs to score because if it goes one one, we

760
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 4: both lose. And then it just so happened that Newcastle

761
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 4: Maignon made a crazy save off the post and then

762
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 4: Newcastle gave up one on the break with like literally

763
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 4: Milan had four strikers on the pitch slash wingers. So

764
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 4: I don't really read much into the fact that except

765
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 4: for the first hour, Newcastle looked really good at home.

766
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 3: They dominated.

767
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 4: They closed minus one ten to day against Milan, they

768
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 4: closed minus one oh five against United. Now they're closing

769
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 4: minus one twenty ish against Fulham. Dan Byrne is back,

770
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 4: Callum Wilson is back. They clearly feed.

771
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 3: Off the energy from the home crowd. I'll let you

772
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 3: go because I do want to talk about Fulham, but like, yeah,

773
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 3: we take a.

774
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 2: Bunch of stuff on Fulham here. So Fulham they are

775
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 2: now the best topments in the world, right, it's back

776
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 2: to back five no wins.

777
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: That Isnez who he wrote off.

778
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 3: I definitely have.

779
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 4: I definitely spawned his resurgency. He found the fountain of youth.

780
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 4: Him and Eddie Nikattia.

781
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, denly about that one. So Fulham so far

782
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 2: so last not only so, not only have they scored

783
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,359
Speaker 2: sixteen goals in their last four matches of a point

784
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 2: out expected So obviously they've all were performed, but those

785
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: sixteen goals have come off forty seven shots. That's a

786
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 2: thirty four percent conversion rate on your shots. The average

787
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 2: in the Premier League is eleven percent. Like, that's how

788
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 2: crazy this offensive run is for them. And if you

789
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: look back, especially at their last two matches, like what

790
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 2: was the stylistic of the teams that they played. It's

791
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: passive low blocks in west Ham and Nottingham Forest. And

792
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: what has Fulham really struggled with this season, it's when

793
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 2: they have to go up in competition and they have

794
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 2: to potentially try to play out of the back, and

795
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: they've cost them so many times against top half of

796
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 2: the table teams this season. They have a minus four

797
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 2: point three expectable. Eventually, they have not been very competitive

798
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 2: against those and it's not that bad. I mean, that's

799
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: really not that bad.

800
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,400
Speaker 3: It's really not that when you think about it.

801
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: I mean, but they actually haven't played as many as

802
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 2: you think. Right against they played a lot of the

803
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,359
Speaker 2: bottom half of the table teams, Like they're gonna get

804
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 2: a really tough run in with fixtures here coming up.

805
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 2: But you know the reality for them is that in

806
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,399
Speaker 2: matches where they do have to sit in a low

807
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,240
Speaker 2: block where they have to concede a lot of percepsion,

808
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:39,919
Speaker 2: they have been decent at times, but they haven't really

809
00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 2: been that great, you know. I mean they they in

810
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: eight of their sixteen matches this season, they've held under

811
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 2: fifty percent possession and they've conceded fourteen point four expectacles.

812
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 2: So essentially, the longer they have to sit in a

813
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,480
Speaker 2: low block, especially against good teams, that's where they run

814
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 2: into trouble. And I get it, Newcastle's gassed, but I

815
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 2: guess what, Sean Longstaff was also on the bench too,

816
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: so like there's they have the ability to rotate now

817
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 2: dune Castle does. And I think, and I said this

818
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: on Twitter, but the best possible thing that could have

819
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: happened to them because of what we've seen from them

820
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 2: recently is them getting completely knocked out of Europe and

821
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 2: just being able to focus on them. It's gonna benefit

822
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 2: them so much, especially in this match. But this is

823
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 2: one of the craziest lines I think I've ever seen. Like,

824
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 2: there is no like I before, counting before accounting for injuries,

825
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,240
Speaker 2: and quite frankly, there's not really that many for Newcastle

826
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 2: outside of obviously Nick Pope and Botman now. But I

827
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 2: have Newcastle minus two forty five and I don't think

828
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 2: I'm really that wrong right now, so I love them

829
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen. This is one of the crazier lines

830
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: I've seen in a very long time.

831
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 1: It does feel that way, right, and it's actually one

832
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 1: of the best opportunities. You just will hear a lot

833
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: of people talking about it being fishy if this was

834
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 1: an NFL game or something. It does feel that way

835
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: a little bit.

836
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 3: I mean, we're wronging a lot on Fulham this year.

837
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, they are better than I thought, But like

838
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 4: when you pull up their numbers, you're just like, Okay,

839
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 4: I did a deep diye on them today and I

840
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 4: was like, Okay, where do they keep the ball? Because

841
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,399
Speaker 4: they're like league average in touches in their own penalty area,

842
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:07,399
Speaker 4: touches in the middle third, touches in the attacking third,

843
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 4: and then their attack completely falls off a cliff usually

844
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 4: in the final third. They're like bottom five there bottom

845
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 4: five shots and they get nothing from their penaltary because

846
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 4: they've been playing Jimenez. Amenez has a great run of form,

847
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 4: finds something now the attack scores a shit ton of goals.

848
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 4: It makes me think that like if they still had Mitrovitz,

849
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 4: just be like a league average team. Oh yeah, but

850
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 4: full of what are they doing out of possession? They're

851
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,399
Speaker 4: taking a ton of risk defensively playing a high line

852
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 4: like Robinson is doing a ton of ball winning. It's

853
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:39,600
Speaker 4: kind of Evertony in what they're doing, not that they're

854
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 4: necessarily the same, but in terms of tackles and interceptions

855
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 4: per ninety they're number two behind Everton, right in front

856
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 4: of Spurs. Like they've been a very aggressive defense this

857
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 4: year and it's been kind of surprising when you look

858
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 4: at just how much ball winning they can do. But again,

859
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 4: once you get past that, this team's vulnerable and it

860
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 4: shows up in the numbers like, Okay, they're allowing the

861
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 4: seventh fewest shots per match for Fulham. That's pretty good,

862
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 4: but then there are thirteenth and non penalty XG difference

863
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 4: sixteenth and big scoring chances, So what does that mean?

864
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 4: Newcastle's not going to get a ton of shots. They're

865
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 4: not a team that wants to do it anyway. They

866
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 4: just want those few opportunities to break. And when they do,

867
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 4: I think they exploit Fulham here their first and big

868
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 4: scoring chances and first in non penalty XG for ninety.

869
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 4: So I think that this attack roles. I love that

870
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 4: each and Wilson are both healthy and I think they win.

871
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 4: So I think Alts are good too.

872
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just about newcasts could be a one,

873
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 1: wouldn't it to.

874
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,439
Speaker 3: Come back to earth moment for Fulham? Play win again?

875
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,879
Speaker 1: All right? Burnley and Everton now this one at Turf

876
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 1: Moore Sean Ditsche return game, So make sure you bake

877
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: that into the numbers. Maybe play Sean Ditsche anytime goal

878
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: scorer in a revenge game narrative Burnley plus two sixty

879
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,279
Speaker 1: at home, Evertton plus one ten on the road and

880
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 1: the draws plus two forty. It does start. You do

881
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 1: have to ask question. We're going to be asking this

882
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,319
Speaker 1: one probably again. If everydon do win this game, at

883
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 1: what point does it hasn't moved too much? And I

884
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 1: don't think we're there yet, not yet, BJ.

885
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 2: We're getting close to there, you know. I have Everton

886
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 2: at plus one h two, so they're sitting at you know,

887
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 2: plus one ten, plus one fifteen in that range. So

888
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 2: I'm pretty close to what the market has. I mean

889
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:23,919
Speaker 2: the matchups, that's it perfectly for them, right Like they're

890
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 2: going to face a team that's going to try to

891
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 2: build out of the back. They can just see they're

892
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 2: sitting whatever low defensive block they want to sit in,

893
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 2: or they can come out and try to press them.

894
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 2: Burnley's not good enough and build up play. So there

895
00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: is a real opportunity here for Everton to flex their

896
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 2: muscles a little bit and play and transition and cause

897
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 2: a lot of problems. And I don't think Burnley is

898
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 2: good enough offensively to beat them. So you could definitely

899
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 2: make a case for Everton here. If this gets to

900
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 2: plus one twenty, I will play Everton. That price is

901
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 2: good enough there because I think the matchup's good enough

902
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 2: for them. So if it gets plus one twenty, I'll

903
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 2: be there. But we're getting closer and closer to the

904
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 2: market maybe not being so friendly to.

905
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 1: Us on that. Yeah, I think you'd you'd be right there.

906
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: They have seven wins on the season, Everdent. That's the

907
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:15,880
Speaker 1: same as as Brighton and west Ham one behind Newcastle.

908
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 1: I think it you're like, what are they? I'd actually

909
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: be curious where you guys have them in your power

910
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: rankings because yeah, as I say, they're probably top top

911
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:28,439
Speaker 1: half team.

912
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 3: I have them first.

913
00:43:30,360 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

914
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 4: First I tweeted that, I said, I said on Thursday

915
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 4: there might not be ten teams better because there's not.

916
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 4: And then I said on Sunday after they beat Chelsea

917
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 4: that there's none better.

918
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 1: Yeah.

919
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 3: Actually I have them ninth too.

920
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: And then it's the schedule is interesting for them too,

921
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: because we're talking about like the spot where we're going

922
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 1: to be selling. Right after this Burnley game, they play

923
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: an EFL Cup match at home against Fulham and it's

924
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: City Wolves. Yeah, it's Tottenham City and Wolves teams. I

925
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,479
Speaker 1: know they'll just beginst Everton again.

926
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:04,240
Speaker 3: It's not like we ever did before.

927
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's somebody in our discords like, uh love listening

928
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 4: to Wonder Goal. Just have to meet the parts where

929
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 4: they talk about Everton. We've been cashing tickets three straight wins.

930
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 4: I think we bet them all three. I know at

931
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 4: least one of us bet them in all three. So

932
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 4: about those toffee and they covered that over for.

933
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 3: Me over two and a half. On Thursday.

934
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:28,320
Speaker 4: It was deserves the right side but plays now. It

935
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 4: was miraculous and people tweeting me like always off side.

936
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 4: I wasn't watching the match, so I'm like, ship, it's

937
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 4: gonna get called back?

938
00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 1: Was are they the They're probably the best watch right

939
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 1: now too, like for neutral of any Premier League club

940
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:48,400
Speaker 1: because like they're they're not good enough where they're just

941
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 1: if they played Loot and Town or something, they would

942
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 1: just stop them out. And but they're also not bad

943
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 1: enough that they're gonna give to.

944
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 3: Be in that the Premier Big watchability rankings. Let's do

945
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 3: that on Sunday.

946
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: Yes, Spurs are up there all right.

947
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 3: Arsenal twentieth.

948
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:03,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's my point.

949
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 4: It's like you look at something you never watch everybody

950
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 4: else in the prem except like maybe west Ham, Arsenal,

951
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 4: west Ham and Palace are probably the three least interesting.

952
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 1: Value and of course we got to watch Palace.

953
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 2: Man.

954
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 3: I don't need to watch watch Palace on Sunday morning,

955
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 3: just put.

956
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:23,120
Speaker 1: I just want to an Isoa cam on on our

957
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 1: man Roy on the side now while he's still the manager.

958
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 1: It's still beautiful. Yeah.

959
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:30,279
Speaker 2: Ten to one to finish in the top half for

960
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 2: all the people out there if they want to just.

961
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 1: Need to maybe a chance.

962
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 3: What are the chances they get the points back?

963
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:36,839
Speaker 2: That's the thing?

964
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 3: Are rolling at ten to one?

965
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,399
Speaker 1: I can I be honestly, I don't think that they'll

966
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: get him back if they're not in like if they're

967
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: they're safe from relegation. I don't think that they'll get

968
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: them back like that because.

969
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 4: They're live if they get him back for that, I

970
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 4: mean that the odds on Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think

971
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 4: so when.

972
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 3: Do we free roll attend and one?

973
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 4: I'm gonna have to follow this closely because I think

974
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 4: we should be ready to potentially fire on this if

975
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 4: we sued to get some positive news on that, because

976
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 4: if they were to get ten points right now, they'd

977
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 4: be in tenth in the league.

978
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: I know.

979
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm going to put a bunch of

980
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 2: features out here in a little bit because probably hopefully

981
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: before this weekend because Newcastle's plus two fifty finished in

982
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,680
Speaker 2: the top four, which I would like to bet. So

983
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 2: maybe i'll add himson own. But I need to do

984
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,320
Speaker 2: a deep dive into how good they're Loyals lawyers actually are, Michael,

985
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 2: So it might need your help.

986
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,319
Speaker 1: You're judging by the way that this club has been

987
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 1: run in the back room, probably not that good.

988
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 2: It sounds like they were just like what Everson claims.

989
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 2: It sounds like they were just like they were over

990
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:36,840
Speaker 2: by like nine million, and they're just like, hey, come on,

991
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 2: that's not that bad.

992
00:46:38,520 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 1: That's yeah, okay, Anthony. You foreshadowed it earlier, and I'm

993
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 1: assuming that this is the match you were talking about.

994
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:50,400
Speaker 1: A nice cell high opportunity at the London Community Stadium

995
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 1: as Brentford hosts Villa. Brentford plus two twenty acid, Villa

996
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 1: traveling at plus one ten a road favorite, the draws

997
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 1: plus two seventy five. When do we like to bet

998
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: brent When is our favorite time of bet Brentford, Paul,

999
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: When they are catching a team that is just rolling

1000
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,160
Speaker 1: a team in the top four, one of the Big six,

1001
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 1: and when they're at home and when they're an underdog.

1002
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 1: This one ticks every box.

1003
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Villa's minus one fifteen to miss top four. I

1004
00:47:14,920 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 4: feel like this is the high watermark of the UNAI

1005
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 4: train after two home wins against City and Arsenal and

1006
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 4: Bjay talked about it right. I mentioned this earlier, like

1007
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 4: Chelsea United was one of the most bizarre results of

1008
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:27,720
Speaker 4: the season.

1009
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 5: The market gave Villa a huge bump from beating City,

1010
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 5: but again, I mean they beat a City team that

1011
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 5: wasn't really Manchester City. They didn't have Grealish, they didn't

1012
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 5: have Doku, the didn't have Rodriy. They played two center

1013
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 5: backs and center midfield who were not great in those roles,

1014
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 5: and it really just it was a broken team. They

1015
00:47:46,120 --> 00:47:48,399
Speaker 5: had less than five shots, they didn't take one after

1016
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 5: the fifteenth minute.

1017
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 4: Credit to Villa, they took advantage. They won the match,

1018
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 4: But like, I don't really want to give this team

1019
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 4: a huge upgrade because they looked more like the Villa

1020
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 4: we expect when they played Arsenal. They got the early

1021
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 4: goal and they kind of just defended for their lives.

1022
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 4: They created almost nothing the rest of the match and

1023
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 4: Arsenal wasn't able to break them down and get the breakthrough.

1024
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 3: But they were over one xg like there were chances.

1025
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 4: So yeah, they'll at home, great team, they'll on the road.

1026
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:13,839
Speaker 4: They don't press high, they don't win the ball, they're

1027
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 4: vulnerable on set pieces, where they're the worst.

1028
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 3: Team in the league.

1029
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 4: If you look at their makeup, it makes sense why

1030
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 4: they'd be bad on set piece defense. Now they get Brentford,

1031
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 4: who gets Jensen back. Most likely, it looks like they're

1032
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 4: at home. I know that Weymou's not there, but I

1033
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 4: still think this team is good enough that plus a

1034
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 4: half at home is a really really friendly price. They

1035
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 4: looked bad with that in Weymou.

1036
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 3: I can't deny that, but I think they'll they'll bounce

1037
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:41,320
Speaker 3: back here and I'll take the Bees at home. The

1038
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 3: buzz their way too.

1039
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 1: It Yeah, I mean, it's just it's almost a system

1040
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 1: play at this point. PJ three for three here on

1041
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 1: the Bees.

1042
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just I'm just gonna echo everything Anthony said. Obviously,

1043
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,239
Speaker 2: getting Jensen back is gonna be massive for Brentford because

1044
00:48:57,280 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 2: he is their free kick taker. So that's the biggest

1045
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 2: advantage that have here. And Anthony mentioned this a couple

1046
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 2: weeks ago, and I just didn't listen to him. But

1047
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 2: roade Villa is just they're just not as good as

1048
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:11,399
Speaker 2: as Home Villa. You know, they're essentially since Uniamori took over,

1049
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 2: they're a minus seven expected gold REFFROESSI all away from home.

1050
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 2: So they're also gonna be without Douglas Louise, which is

1051
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:20,800
Speaker 2: a big loss for Villa because not only is he

1052
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 2: a great ball stopper, but he.

1053
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 3: Is guy the stopper.

1054
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 2: They're only cost stopper, but he's the guy who drops

1055
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 2: deep in their three two five build up. He's the

1056
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 2: one who connects the play from the center backs and

1057
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:33,960
Speaker 2: getting in the ball up to the forwards. So it's

1058
00:49:34,000 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 2: a pretty big loss for them. So I'm with all

1059
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 2: you guys, Brentford plus I have minus one twenty nine.

1060
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you've been listening to the show from the

1061
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 1: start and we asked you that of these ten matches

1062
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 1: to pick the team that you'd assume the team you'd

1063
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: assume you'd be, you'd make the bet that we'd be

1064
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 1: betting the safest bet it would be Brentford in this spot.

1065
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: I just it's just a perfect time to buy on them,

1066
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 1: So on Villa, because we are obligated to do it.

1067
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 1: We'll talk west Ham and Wolves. Now west Ham plus

1068
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 1: one fifteen, Wolves plus two thirty and the jaw is

1069
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 1: also plus two thirty. It's I wanted west Ham to

1070
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: get some come upance at some point. I didn't want

1071
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 1: it to come Via said the.

1072
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,919
Speaker 2: Exact same thing. Yeah, I was just waiting to fade

1073
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 2: them and pounced by. They got killed by Fulham. And

1074
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 2: now the market's like, wait, they're bad.

1075
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, bad break for the good guys.

1076
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 3: Always happens that way.

1077
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, always happens that way. So we need to be

1078
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 4: trying true and just blind fade or blind bet teams?

1079
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:49,839
Speaker 3: Just blind? Who do I want to bet?

1080
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 1: Bet them?

1081
00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 3: Who don't care who they're playing?

1082
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 4: The market's wrong, No, I think the way to play

1083
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 4: this is the Wolves team totals. Uh, you know, just

1084
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 4: replay what I usually say about the Wolves overs. But yeah,

1085
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 4: I mean, look, year over year, there's the biggest drop

1086
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 4: off in defensive quality in the league this year has

1087
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 4: been west Ham, and I would argue the biggest improvement

1088
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 4: in defensive quality year over year is Arsenal. Now, is

1089
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 4: there a player in the league who transferred from one

1090
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 4: of those teams to the other team That may be

1091
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 4: a direct cause as to why one team got much

1092
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 4: worse defensively in one team is much better defensive.

1093
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:28,960
Speaker 2: I don't know, Anthony, who could that be?

1094
00:51:29,600 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's Declan Rice. And like, you know,

1095
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 4: when you look at this west Ham defense, I mean

1096
00:51:34,600 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 4: it's horrendous horrendous and maybe the center backs are always

1097
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 4: this bad and Rice was just really good cover. Maybe

1098
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 4: they got lucky and ran good for a while, But

1099
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 4: like seventeenth and non penalty XG. Wolves have scored in

1100
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:50,480
Speaker 4: every match this year except one.

1101
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:53,440
Speaker 3: Way back on Opening Day, which, by the.

1102
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:55,239
Speaker 4: Way, you know, I remember somebody tweeted me like do

1103
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:57,800
Speaker 4: we think differently about our Like how much should we

1104
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 4: react to one match? Wolves just dominated Ben United? And

1105
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 4: I was like, well, you know, it's one match. I mean,

1106
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 4: you know, how much can you really read into it?

1107
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 4: In hindsight, that one match told us a lot about

1108
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 4: those two teams and where they would be heading. But

1109
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:13,879
Speaker 4: Wolves have scored in every match since. Their team total

1110
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 4: over one and a half for the match is intriguing

1111
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 4: to me. Their first half team total is over is

1112
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 4: intriguing to me. Maybe you just parlay them to score

1113
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 4: with some other favorite you like this weekend. I think

1114
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 4: Wolves overs are good here. Net To is still questionable.

1115
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 4: That's the big X factor, But like I said, like

1116
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 4: when he hasn't been out, they've been okay. So I

1117
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 4: think them being able to play on the break here

1118
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 4: is good and they're going to be alive in this

1119
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,680
Speaker 4: match once again because this Hammer's defense is horrendous.

1120
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 1: Okay, that wraps up the Premier League for this weekend.

1121
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:51,920
Speaker 1: Onto the Bundesliga. Anthony, you are the only one with

1122
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:52,720
Speaker 1: a bet in Germany.

1123
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 3: Wow, BJ no bet in Germany. It's sad, disappointing.

1124
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:57,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't want to bet wolves Perk

1125
00:52:57,920 --> 00:52:58,800
Speaker 2: on the road at Darmstock.

1126
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 3: It's I like stut caart again.

1127
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:07,000
Speaker 4: We're gonna bet Stutgart again, just like we did two

1128
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 4: weeks ago, just like we did in the Pokyle, just

1129
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:11,240
Speaker 4: like we did against Leverkusen. Now they go to Byron.

1130
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:14,879
Speaker 4: Byron played in third year against United. They didn't really

1131
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 4: have a good game or bad game. They just kind

1132
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:20,439
Speaker 4: of had a game that was played, never really in doubt.

1133
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 4: But I just love this Stutgart team, and I think

1134
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:25,640
Speaker 4: the market's short. I mean, like, I don't think they're

1135
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 4: that much worse than Leverrakusen. Leverkusen closed like plus point

1136
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 4: seventy five at Byron match week five. Now Stuttgart is

1137
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 4: plus one and a half minus one twenty five. I

1138
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 4: just think it's way too short on just how good

1139
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 4: this team has been. They can play on the break.

1140
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,439
Speaker 4: I think you know, Byron just kind of swatted away

1141
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:47,440
Speaker 4: most of the Mondesleiger this year, but Leverkusen gave them

1142
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 4: a game, Leipzig kind of gave them a game, and

1143
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 4: Stuart Art will give them a game this weekend. So

1144
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:55,439
Speaker 4: I like them plus one and a half and money

1145
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:56,879
Speaker 4: line sprinkle if you're interested.

1146
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 1: Into Italy now and b ja's the only one with

1147
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: a bit in Syria.

1148
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I have I have maybe the most exciting

1149
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 2: match of the weekend, Fiorentina and Verona, like under two

1150
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 2: and a half goals plus one five just kind of

1151
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 2: a little bit inflated when you look at what these

1152
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 2: two teams have done both offensively. Verona is the worst

1153
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:20,280
Speaker 2: offensive team in Syria by a very very clear margin

1154
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 2: point seven to five non penalty XG for ninety this season,

1155
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 2: failed to create over one expected goal in twelve. With

1156
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 2: their fifteen matches go up against a fe Orentina defense,

1157
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 2: it's only allowing you know, around one expected goal. But

1158
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 2: for Fiorentina, their possession numbers and all of the progressive

1159
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 2: passes and dribbles is really good. But they're only averaging

1160
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:41,400
Speaker 2: one point one two non penalty for ninety, so two

1161
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 2: teams from a non penalty perspective that are their matches

1162
00:54:44,480 --> 00:54:47,800
Speaker 2: are averaging under two point two goals. I think the

1163
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: total is a little too high, so like under to

1164
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 2: and a half plus one five.

1165
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 4: We're going to do more midweek conversation about some of

1166
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:56,440
Speaker 4: these other leagues, so I'm expected to kind of dive

1167
00:54:56,520 --> 00:54:57,840
Speaker 4: deep into it because I know we kind of just

1168
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:02,040
Speaker 4: quickly go through these. But b Jay, just take a

1169
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 4: look at chio mobile aze numbers in the end maybe

1170
00:55:05,640 --> 00:55:08,280
Speaker 4: finally coming, and that is exciting.

1171
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 2: I've seen a couple haven't looked in a couple.

1172
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:12,279
Speaker 4: I watched the game today and it was alarming, and

1173
00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:16,799
Speaker 4: I looked through some box scores and uh, they're playing

1174
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 4: into this weekend.

1175
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 3: That'll be interesting.

1176
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. But Intern never loses and they just trust everybody

1177
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:26,280
Speaker 2: in Syria, so the market things that they're great. Oh gosh,

1178
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 2: what we have for four goals off of four expected?

1179
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 3: Anthony, No, I'm talking we'll take away the penalties though.

1180
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 2: Oh there's three penalties here, Anthony, So.

1181
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:38,439
Speaker 4: That means he has one and he's at like point

1182
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 4: two zero point one penalty xtue for ninety Yeah, amazing, amazing.

1183
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 2: Okay had done this like two years earlier. That'd be nice.

1184
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 2: We would have said a lot of made me a

1185
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:50,239
Speaker 2: lot of money.

1186
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, consider it a learning lesson. You just you paid

1187
00:55:55,600 --> 00:56:00,080
Speaker 1: your tuition. Uh La Liga now b J would you

1188
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:00,640
Speaker 1: got in Spain?

1189
00:56:01,760 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have about a little. Friday afternoon, Oh so

1190
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 2: soon a Viacno. I think as Soon has inflated just

1191
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,600
Speaker 2: a little bit too much here eighteenth and expected gold

1192
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 2: differential Lall League. Their offense really hasn't done much at

1193
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:17,240
Speaker 2: all this season, trying to be more possession bases opposed

1194
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:19,360
Speaker 2: to being very direct like they were in years past,

1195
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:22,840
Speaker 2: only averaging point nine non penalty actually for ninety minutes.

1196
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 2: We're relying on Budimir as their only striker. Their best

1197
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,960
Speaker 2: passer is injured until February. It's just not a really

1198
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: great spot for them. And listen, we bet South Bago

1199
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 2: against Vicon on Monday. We got incredibly lucky to get

1200
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 2: out with push on that one because Viacano pumped them

1201
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 2: pretty badly, and they've been pretty good defensively against teams

1202
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 2: in the bottom half the table. So Biacano Friday Afternoon

1203
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:50,439
Speaker 2: plus a half minus one thirty.

1204
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:52,720
Speaker 3: I think I just remembered who I wanted to parlay

1205
00:56:52,760 --> 00:56:56,680
Speaker 3: Wolves team total over with YEP South of Vigo at

1206
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 3: home against If they don't win this match, it might

1207
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 3: be done. M'd be done, might be it.

1208
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:03,400
Speaker 1: I can't.

1209
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:04,360
Speaker 3: I can't do it anymore.

1210
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:06,839
Speaker 4: I mean it's I didn't even watch last Monday after

1211
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:08,840
Speaker 4: the first twenty minutes because I'm like, we haven't attempted

1212
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 4: a shot yet.

1213
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:10,840
Speaker 3: We're not going to get a shot like this is

1214
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:11,879
Speaker 3: this is still now.

1215
00:57:12,040 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 2: I believe for the entire match. So I think we

1216
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 2: got a.

1217
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:19,280
Speaker 3: Three point one next g it was Yeah, it was

1218
00:57:19,320 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 3: a blow.

1219
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 2: It was a blow. Draw is what it was. Yeah. Draw?

1220
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 3: All right, Well let's go back to Monday. I'm gonna

1221
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:28,919
Speaker 3: take Olaves plus one on the road.

1222
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1223
00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 3: Uh, that's your own STU world.

1224
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 4: Look, I said last week, I thought the number of

1225
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 4: the market was like not really giving Derona a lot

1226
00:57:38,240 --> 00:57:39,800
Speaker 4: of credit. But now I think as a favorite, they're

1227
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 4: very vulnerable. And Bja wrote about this in our Action

1228
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 4: Network discord. Come hang and talk soccer with us in there.

1229
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 4: We can get a link if you know, message me

1230
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 4: for a link, or we can throw one in the

1231
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 4: show notes maybe, but uh, we talk soccer in there.

1232
00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 3: We have some fun.

1233
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 4: Somebody mentioned why do you fade Darona so much. They

1234
00:57:55,280 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 4: are so fraudulent and defensive numbers that they are extremely vulnerable.

1235
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 4: Olavas is the largest underperformer by XG relative to goals

1236
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:06,120
Speaker 4: in the whole league. They have vastly underperformed. They have

1237
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 4: a viable attack through this young kid they found, and

1238
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 4: I like the first half team total.

1239
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 3: I like the plus one here.

1240
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,120
Speaker 4: I think they get on the board early and make

1241
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 4: this a sweat for Girona, who will probably steal it late.

1242
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 1: But it should be a good match to legal BJ.

1243
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 1: What do you got?

1244
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you've listened to the show long enough, you'll

1245
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: know what I'm about to do. Has been very courageous

1246
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 2: of me. I like Marseille minus one and a half

1247
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: at home against Clairemont foot of plus one twenty. I

1248
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 2: think they're good now. For many years they were overforming

1249
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: their x GI by just like a crazy amount, and

1250
00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 2: it just drove me nuts because I kept trying to

1251
00:58:45,400 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 2: fade them and they just kept winning. But now the

1252
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 2: pendulum has just switched back the other way, because now

1253
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 2: they're underperforming their x G and they had a terrible

1254
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 2: start to the season and now they're rising up the

1255
00:58:55,200 --> 00:58:59,280
Speaker 2: table after winning three straight matches. It's because they're not

1256
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 2: being as possession base. They're switched to three to five

1257
00:59:01,960 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 2: to two these last couple of matches to play more

1258
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:07,000
Speaker 2: direct and it's really worked out, Like four point five

1259
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 2: expected goals against Leon and Lorion is pretty good stuff

1260
00:59:11,360 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 2: and it really allows them to get the ball out

1261
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:15,120
Speaker 2: why get into the wing backs and swing a lot

1262
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 2: of balls and in via crosses and they've been very

1263
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:20,120
Speaker 2: good at doing that, which is a big, big advantage

1264
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 2: here against Claremont Foot, who really struggles defending crosses. And

1265
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 2: the thing that worries me here is the benefit to

1266
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 2: Marseille is that Claremont Foot is obviously a very transition

1267
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 2: based team, but they're not very good at it. Like

1268
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 2: they're seventeenth and final third to box entry conversion rate,

1269
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:37,840
Speaker 2: they're not getting many final third entries to begin with,

1270
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 2: so that just tells me that they're not that great

1271
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 2: in terms of offensive transition. They're only averaging zero point

1272
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:45,560
Speaker 2: ninety two non penalty for ninety minutes. So I know

1273
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,600
Speaker 2: marse is coming off of Matchkins Brighton on Thursday in

1274
00:59:48,720 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 2: the Europa League, which is big to see who wins

1275
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:52,920
Speaker 2: the group, but I don't think Clairemont. I think this

1276
00:59:53,000 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 2: price is a little too well on Marseille and I

1277
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 2: have their spread projected at minus one point five, so

1278
00:59:57,560 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 2: minus one point five at plus one twenty is good

1279
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 2: enough for yeah.

1280
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:04,840
Speaker 4: I like Lil plus a half at home against PSG.

1281
01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:07,040
Speaker 4: I think it's a good matchup for little. They have

1282
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 4: the second highest completion rate, second highest possession rate. The

1283
01:00:11,400 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 4: Fonseka you know Ruin Spurs almost hired him. He was

1284
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 4: at Roma before Marinho. They have a system that works

1285
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 4: for them in the sense that they're able to play

1286
01:00:18,240 --> 01:00:21,320
Speaker 4: through pressure. They're able to play through presses and against

1287
01:00:21,360 --> 01:00:24,880
Speaker 4: Enrique that can make PSG a little bit uncomfortable defensively,

1288
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 4: and I think they're going to get exposed a little

1289
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 4: bit defensively here. I do expect goals in this match,

1290
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 4: but at home catching a half, I think they'll might

1291
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:34,080
Speaker 4: be the second best team in this league. And I'm

1292
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 4: going to bet them at home catching a half against

1293
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:37,919
Speaker 4: overvalued PSG at the moment.

1294
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:41,800
Speaker 1: Okay, onto the underdog section here. Like I said, we

1295
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 1: had a fifty seven to one ticket that looked very live.

1296
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 2: I have to I say something that I think that's

1297
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 2: of course, because I was going between stut Gart and Everton.

1298
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:54,960
Speaker 2: I picked stut Gart. I really should have just picked Everton.

1299
01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 2: I didn't do it, so that's hot me. All they

1300
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 2: did they did a lead, and they did pret good

1301
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:01,800
Speaker 2: in the first half. Two Card did and then.

1302
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:03,760
Speaker 3: You know, they just packed up the bus after the

1303
01:01:04,080 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 3: sixteen minutes at one one. They just played for the

1304
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 3: drive to score in the last like thirty minutes.

1305
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 2: It sucked.

1306
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:14,000
Speaker 1: Well, don't worry about we're already out that kind of sweat,

1307
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:15,600
Speaker 1: that kind of space.

1308
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,919
Speaker 3: We're going to go two for three this weekend again, Yeah,

1309
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 3: I think.

1310
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:22,760
Speaker 1: So okay, the one you can go first, you go first.

1311
01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:25,480
Speaker 4: Then Forest plus three fifty similar to last week with

1312
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 4: Villa for me, like, I don't necessarily love the side,

1313
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 4: but I think it's high variance, and I think if

1314
01:01:31,280 --> 01:01:34,200
Speaker 4: Forrest still cares for Cooper, they are very live in

1315
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 4: this matchup and could have certainly upset Spurs, who just

1316
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 4: got a huge bump off of a win against Newcastle

1317
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 4: that I think is kind of being overvalued by the market.

1318
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:44,560
Speaker 4: If they care, they're live. Same with Villa, Like, if

1319
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 4: we think Villa's real, they're alive to beat Arsenal. Kind

1320
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 4: of have excuse about that. Opinion after watching the game.

1321
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 4: But like, I think it's similar in that sense, Lean

1322
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:54,960
Speaker 4: into it, Forest plus three fifty.

1323
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 1: Nine to one Manchester United at Anfield, take it on Liverpool.

1324
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:04,400
Speaker 1: This Uh, this United team is in a terrible, terrible spot,

1325
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:10,800
Speaker 1: both in terms of their form, injury issues, the toxicity

1326
01:02:11,280 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 1: at the club. Ten hog out everything that I look

1327
01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 1: for when I want to bet at Manchester United spot.

1328
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 1: I understand that this is a gonna end up being

1329
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 1: a very completed B squad Manchester United. But it's still

1330
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 1: nine to one. Uh, there's still some talent and there's

1331
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:32,520
Speaker 1: actually I think a path here with United if if

1332
01:02:32,520 --> 01:02:36,439
Speaker 1: they can just find a way to play a nice,

1333
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 1: firm organized, take a firm organized approach to this match.

1334
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 1: I think United is actually kind of live. When everyone's

1335
01:02:44,080 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 1: going to write them off, that's the time you want

1336
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:48,240
Speaker 1: to bet them. When everybody's back on them, that's the

1337
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:50,680
Speaker 1: time you want to bet against them. They still should

1338
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 1: have at least like a solid enough spine with amorbat

1339
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:56,720
Speaker 1: and mcdonmm and a Evans and VN like this is

1340
01:02:56,920 --> 01:03:00,320
Speaker 1: it's it's fine, it's it'll it's there's a re in there.

1341
01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: Nine to one Now it's the time to do it.

1342
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:05,720
Speaker 1: This Liverpool team can still get got they just escape,

1343
01:03:05,720 --> 01:03:09,280
Speaker 1: they just they give up the other day like this is.

1344
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 1: This is a sickening, sickening bet, But that's what the

1345
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:15,440
Speaker 1: underdog partlay is all about. Beja.

1346
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm going to take a team that Anthony

1347
01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 2: already mentioned are like Alabas plus five point fifty on Monday.

1348
01:03:21,160 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna echo what Anthony's already said. But Alava's

1349
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 2: this season in La Liga, they've had some really bad

1350
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 2: penalty luck. They've conceded five penalties this season. They're number

1351
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:32,760
Speaker 2: one in Laalig than non penalty ac Hila Perneti, but

1352
01:03:32,880 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 2: only on point nine to one. Like this is how

1353
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 2: impressive this team is. And the one thing that Jerona

1354
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:41,360
Speaker 2: struggles with is transition defense and Alavas has the highest

1355
01:03:41,400 --> 01:03:44,240
Speaker 2: direct speed and they are the highest percentage of their

1356
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,400
Speaker 2: attacks coming through direct attacks. So really it's an absolutely

1357
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:50,520
Speaker 2: perfect matchup for them. And really in the market is

1358
01:03:50,720 --> 01:03:53,440
Speaker 2: way way too high on Girona here, I mean minus

1359
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 2: two hundred against a Alabas team, it's a plus two

1360
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 2: point two expect a goldffernial team like this is this

1361
01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 2: is way too high, So I like all the face plus.

1362
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,520
Speaker 1: It's actually two hundred and ninety one to one.

1363
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:06,560
Speaker 4: If you wait until closer at a game time, when

1364
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:09,280
Speaker 4: United's twenty six to one, you might get any Rember.

1365
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 2: Number.

1366
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 1: So there you go. Best bets, Anthony, You and I

1367
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 1: are on the same team in different forms, so you

1368
01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:19,800
Speaker 1: can go first. Yeah.

1369
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 4: I like Brentford plus a half minus one twenty five

1370
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 4: to one thirty at home against Villa. Villa's roads splits

1371
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:27,560
Speaker 4: have been really poor since Emory took over. They don't

1372
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:29,640
Speaker 4: really press. They're really bad on set pieces, which is

1373
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:31,920
Speaker 4: a huge problem against Brentford. I think this is a

1374
01:04:31,960 --> 01:04:35,000
Speaker 4: classic sell high after the two biggest wins they're going

1375
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:37,600
Speaker 4: to have all season, by low on Brentford if they

1376
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 4: just lost to the worst team in the league. The

1377
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 4: market responded to that huge Villa performances last week. They

1378
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:45,080
Speaker 4: do also have a rest disadvantage with them playing Europa

1379
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:45,760
Speaker 4: League Thursday.

1380
01:04:45,920 --> 01:04:47,840
Speaker 3: So I like the Bees at home.

1381
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:50,360
Speaker 1: I know you do too. Yeah, I'll take the money

1382
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:53,400
Speaker 1: line on Brentford plus two twenty. Like I said, it's

1383
01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:56,520
Speaker 1: a system bet at this point. Brentford at home as

1384
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 1: an underdog against a team that's red hot, that's in

1385
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:03,680
Speaker 1: the top six. That is a Big six club basically

1386
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:06,800
Speaker 1: at this point in this Premier League. So the Bees

1387
01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 1: baby up, the Bees system play, do they ever let

1388
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:11,080
Speaker 1: us down? Now?

1389
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 2: BJ Newcastle minus went fifteen at home against Fulham, one

1390
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 2: of the crazier lines I've ever seen since I've been

1391
01:05:17,400 --> 01:05:21,000
Speaker 2: betting in the Premier League. Newcastle's obviously having a ton

1392
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 2: of fixtures piloup against them. They're having to play the

1393
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:26,000
Speaker 2: same starting eleven, but they aren't getting some guys back

1394
01:05:26,080 --> 01:05:29,200
Speaker 2: into their lineup, guys like Dan Byrne and Sean Longstaff

1395
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 2: who can actually give them the ability to rotate. And

1396
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 2: the Fulham surge that we've seen offensively over the last

1397
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:38,440
Speaker 2: four matches is pretty insane. They have scored sixteen goals

1398
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 2: off eight point nine expected but those sixteen goals came

1399
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:44,320
Speaker 2: off of forty seven shots. That is a conversion rate

1400
01:05:44,480 --> 01:05:47,360
Speaker 2: of around thirty four percent. The average for the Premier

1401
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:50,760
Speaker 2: League is eleven percent. That's how crazy this offensive run

1402
01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:54,920
Speaker 2: has been. And what has Fulham historically struggled with when

1403
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:56,880
Speaker 2: they have had to step up in competition. It's against

1404
01:05:56,880 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 2: teams that can press them high and press them effectively.

1405
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,240
Speaker 2: It happened against Top earlier this season. It happened itainst

1406
01:06:01,280 --> 01:06:04,080
Speaker 2: Liverpool Newcast is one of the best pressing teams in

1407
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:06,640
Speaker 2: the Career League. They've had a couple of good performances

1408
01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:09,920
Speaker 2: against West Ham and Nottingham Forest where past blow of blocks.

1409
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,720
Speaker 2: This is a much much more is a much better

1410
01:06:12,840 --> 01:06:14,880
Speaker 2: opponent that they have to face, a much more difficult

1411
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:17,720
Speaker 2: opponent who is at home. Was so good at Saint

1412
01:06:17,760 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 2: James Park. So I like Newcastle minus one fifteen.

1413
01:06:19,880 --> 01:06:23,360
Speaker 1: All right, that does it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1414
01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 1: Thank you to our producer Noah. Thank you to Bet

1415
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:28,240
Speaker 1: three six five. Thank you b Jan and Anthony. Thank

1416
01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:31,480
Speaker 1: you dear listener for listening. Please rate, review and subscribe.

1417
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 1: And when Manchester United wins and this underdog parlay hits,

1418
01:06:38,000 --> 01:06:41,959
Speaker 1: you know where to direct all the congratulations. I'm Michael

1419
01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 1: LEEBAP guests, luck with all your bets. This weekend.

1420
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:57,440
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

1421
01:06:57,480 --> 01:07:00,320
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem. WOLP is

1422
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler