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Speaker 1: Hello, They're happy Monday, Happy Election week.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 1: We are here Monday, November third. I am taping on

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Speaker 1: November second, so full disclosure on that.

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Speaker 2: I just got back from.

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Speaker 1: The first annual Todd Bowl as somebody, as a friend

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Speaker 1: of mine tweeted with me, was the University of Miami

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Speaker 1: playing SMU in Dallas. I have one child at Miami,

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Speaker 1: one child at SMU. Many of you know my love

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Speaker 1: for the Miami Hurricanes. I have a lot to say

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Speaker 1: about a lot going on in college football and the

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Speaker 1: future of the University of Miami, but I will hold

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Speaker 1: off on those comments, like every Monday to the end

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Speaker 1: of the podcast, to sort of it is good not

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Speaker 1: to react in the immediacy. That's always. It's good in politics,

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Speaker 1: it's good in sports, it's good in life in general.

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Speaker 1: You always want to take a breath. So I believe,

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Speaker 1: especially for my fellow Hurricane fans who care about the

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Speaker 1: program as much as I do, would like to see

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Speaker 1: another national title in our lifetime.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to.

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Speaker 1: Think I'm looking at this with some very sober eyes.

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Speaker 1: So I encourage you, if you care about that stuff,

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Speaker 1: to go back.

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Speaker 2: There.

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Speaker 1: A few other thoughts in general about what is turning

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Speaker 1: into a coaching massacre in college football with yet another

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Speaker 1: one gone there. But let's be honest, this is a

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Speaker 1: big deal. We are essentially at the one year mark

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Speaker 1: of the election, of the second election of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: And what happens at the one year mark. You get

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Speaker 1: a slew of polling, of good polling, particularly my favorite poll,

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Speaker 1: the poll that I helped keep around and update and upkeep,

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Speaker 1: and it is still in some existence at NBC. Doesn't

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Speaker 1: come out as frequently as it used to, but it

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Speaker 1: does come out two or three times a year. The

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Speaker 1: NBC poll with Hart mcinturf, the bipartisan poll that essentially

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Speaker 1: still is seen by everybody else as the gold standard

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Speaker 1: in American election polling. And so I've gone through it

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Speaker 1: pretty deeply, and I want to share with you sort

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Speaker 1: of my takes on it. I know you've seen. There's

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Speaker 1: a few things out there are eye popping headline. Democrats

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Speaker 1: have an eight point advantage on the generic ballot in

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Speaker 1: the NBC poll.

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Speaker 2: When you see a.

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Speaker 1: You take that here, you see that anywhere else, you think, oh,

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Speaker 1: they must have had a banded sample. We are the

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Speaker 1: NBC poll, and Heart and McInturff are so careful not

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Speaker 1: to let it be volatile, if you will, that it

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Speaker 1: is a remarkable showing, especially as the same poll shows

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Speaker 1: such unpopularity for the Democratic Party even as they have

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Speaker 1: this huge lead. So this is a massive, I think,

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Speaker 1: new place that we are in in American politics. We've

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Speaker 1: not had a situation like this before where you have

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Speaker 1: extraordinarily unpopular president, extraordinarily unpopular opposition party. Something's going to

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Speaker 1: have to give. Come the midterm elections, we are going

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Speaker 1: to get a first taste of where stand I think

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Speaker 1: nationally for both parties, with of course the elections on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and a huge reminder, I will be anchoring a live

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Speaker 1: election night special with my friends at Decision to s

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Speaker 1: h Q, my friend Chrysalizzo and a slew of people

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Speaker 1: that I think. Let me tease out some of the

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Speaker 1: guests that we already have confirmed. I will tell you now.

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Speaker 1: We've got Jacob Rubashkin, Jaron Zao, Jessica Taylor, David Wildstein,

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Speaker 1: Lisa Miller, Abigail Turner, Bill Baronihn Couvoyan Couvalleon, Sorry if

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Speaker 1: I messed that up. Kirk Beto of the Hotline, Nathaniel Rakitch,

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Speaker 1: Leon Sid Adam Carlson, Lakeisha, Jane Arminge, Thomas, John Fleisman,

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Speaker 1: Garrett Heron. That's just again, we're going for five hours minimum,

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Speaker 1: from about six thirty to eleven eleven thirty, so maybe

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Speaker 1: four or four and a half hours minim. We're going

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Speaker 1: to go until we call California, and of course make

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Speaker 1: sure we're called every race has been called in Virginia,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, New York City, and California. We're not going

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Speaker 1: to go to bed, but we're going to touch on

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Speaker 1: mayor's races. Is a fascinating pattern that we're starting to

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Speaker 1: see develop in these urban primary fights, mostly on the left.

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Speaker 1: You got those Pennsylvania Supreme Court judges that are going

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Speaker 1: to are up there for an up or down vote,

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Speaker 1: which if they go down, then we have very partisan,

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Speaker 1: important judicial elections taking place in twenty twenty seven, which

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Speaker 1: could have huge impacts on the twenty twenty eight presidential race.

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Speaker 1: Given Pennsylvania standing in the battleground. There's a slew of

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Speaker 1: ballot props that I want to tease out a little

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Speaker 1: bit when it comes to Texas in particular and Maine,

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Speaker 1: two sort of testing issues that may appear local but

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Speaker 1: could have some national ramifications. So I do want to

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Speaker 1: discuss that today, and I want to begin with essentially

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Speaker 1: the first year report card for Donald Trump. Yes, it's

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Speaker 1: not yet one year into his presidency, but it's one

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Speaker 1: year since he was elected president. And I know, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. I've been in this business a long time.

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Speaker 1: Where we do we always do a November polls, and

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Speaker 1: you always do January polls that essentially are serving as

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Speaker 1: checks where are we one year from the election? Where

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Speaker 1: are we one year from when he took office? So

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Speaker 1: in this case, we are one year from the election.

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Speaker 1: And let's look at some basics, if you will, the

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Speaker 1: big the direction of the country. And this is one

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Speaker 1: of those where you can and this is a reminder

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Speaker 1: of how a partisan media person would work. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: here's right direction, wrong track. It is thirty seven sixty one,

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Speaker 1: thirty seven percent right track. That is not a great number.

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Speaker 1: That is down from forty four percent the first NBC

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Speaker 1: poll of the Trump presidency. So at the start of

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Speaker 1: his presidency, it was a pretty high right track number

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Speaker 1: considering we've been in a what I would call a

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Speaker 1: political recession most of the century, where a majority of

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Speaker 1: people have consistently said we're on the wrong track. There

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Speaker 1: was just one brief period, one brief period during the

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Speaker 1: start of Obama's presidency that those two lines were essentially

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Speaker 1: dead even right track wrong track, And we've been essentially

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Speaker 1: on the wrong track really going back since since I'd

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Speaker 1: say about a year into the Iraq War post nine

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Speaker 1: to eleven, and it has been a consistent wrong track,

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Speaker 1: wrong track, wrong track. However, if you wanted to spin

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Speaker 1: the thirty seven percent right direction in Donald Trump's direction,

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Speaker 1: you'd say this, Well, thirty seven percent of the country

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Speaker 1: says we're on the we're in the right direction, sixty

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Speaker 1: one percent on the wrong track. That thirty seven percent,

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Speaker 1: we haven't been that high, that high since. Obviously there

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Speaker 1: was forty four percent of March, but before then, it

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Speaker 1: hasn't been as high as thirty seven Since going back

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Speaker 1: to the start of COVID in March of twenty when

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Speaker 1: there was a a bit of almost rally around the

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Speaker 1: president moment when everybody was trying to unify for a

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Speaker 1: very brief period on dealing with COVID, you saw that

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Speaker 1: number inch up and then it dramatically fell down to

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Speaker 1: nineteen percent right direction, seventy two percent wrong track, and

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Speaker 1: that was pretty that's seventy percent plus consistent wrong track

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Speaker 1: essentially July of twenty was pretty consistent all the way

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Speaker 1: until the summer of twenty twenty four, and still at

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Speaker 1: election day in twenty twenty four, we were sitting at

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Speaker 1: sixty six percent wrong track. So you could make the

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Speaker 1: case if you just wanted to spin this in Trump's direction, Hey,

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Speaker 1: there's still more people say we're on the right track

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Speaker 1: than any time during the Biden presidency, and that would

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Speaker 1: be true. But it's the trend line that you've got

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Speaker 1: to be aware of, where the fact is that it

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Speaker 1: is now directionally going back to what was the norm

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Speaker 1: during the end of Trump's presidency, most of Trump's presidency

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Speaker 1: and going in to that. So that is a yellow

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Speaker 1: flashing yellow light. Thirty again, thirty seven is still higher

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Speaker 1: than at any moment in Biden's presidency, but it is

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Speaker 1: eight points lower, excuse me, seven points lower than it

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Speaker 1: was at the start of the year. And it does

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Speaker 1: appear when you see other polling in there, that it

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Speaker 1: is trending downward. Now here's my favorite aspect of sort

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Speaker 1: of trending. You know I've pointed this out to you before,

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Speaker 1: but Donald Trump in many ways, he can't really move

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Speaker 1: his numbers. The country has made up its mind on

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. How do I know this? So I went

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Speaker 1: through our all of the polling we did on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: NBC News did on Donald Trump from twenty seventeen through

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Okay, NBC conducted. He keeps saying we, it

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Speaker 1: is not we. It's been a long time since it's

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Speaker 1: we almost a year now. Thirty nine polls in his

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Speaker 1: first term, all thirty nine polls, and when you average

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Speaker 1: out his job approval rating in those thirty nine polls,

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Speaker 1: just the entire just average it out, his job approval

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Speaker 1: rating was forty three point seven percent. What is the

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Speaker 1: job approval rating in this latest NBC News poll released

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Speaker 1: this weekend, forty three percent. His number doesn't budge. His

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Speaker 1: trading range is really small. It is can get. It

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Speaker 1: has gotten as high as he got. Forty seven percent

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Speaker 1: was his honeymoon. That was March of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: He hit forty seven percent. In October of eighteen, when

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Speaker 1: he got his tax cut passed, he hit and then

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Speaker 1: he's never been over forty seven in the NBC Player

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Speaker 1: forty seven percent in February at the start of COVID,

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Speaker 1: it's never been north of forty seven. Now, his lows

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Speaker 1: have all been were super early in his presidency, at

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Speaker 1: thirty nine percent in April of eighteen, thirty nine percent

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Speaker 1: in January of eighteen. Uh he was at thirty eight

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Speaker 1: percent in October of seventeen. Other than that, though he

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Speaker 1: has not visited the thirties. The last time he was

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Speaker 1: in the thirties essentially was April of eighteen. He has

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Speaker 1: essentially been And I'm just forty four, forty five, forty six,

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Speaker 1: forty four, forty four, forty seven, forty six, forty three,

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Speaker 1: forty three, forty six, forty three, forty six, forty four,

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Speaker 1: forty five, forty three, forty five, forty Am I making

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Speaker 1: my point here. I'm not going to keep going and

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Speaker 1: going and going. But that is just remarkable stability. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that forty forty three percent there is. That's the chunk

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Speaker 1: of voters that you know are going to be with

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Speaker 1: the republic Trump led Republican Party. And I say Trump

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Speaker 1: led Republican Party here because there's another interesting question that

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Speaker 1: again will depend on how you want to present the question,

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Speaker 1: will kind of give a hint at your partisan perspective.

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Speaker 2: If you're not careful.

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Speaker 1: A few other things to note, you are starting to

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Speaker 1: see Donald Trump's favorable rating go back. He again had

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Speaker 1: a bit of a honeymoon. He had a thirty six

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Speaker 1: percent positive rating. It was the highest personal positive rating

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Speaker 1: that he had ever recorded. That is already backed down

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Speaker 1: down to twenty nine on very positive, which is a

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Speaker 1: lot more in line with where he was most of

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Speaker 1: the campaign year. So he's still better. He still has

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Speaker 1: a better very positive rating in this second term and

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Speaker 1: from the second campaign than he ever did first. And

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Speaker 1: what that is is that that's the deepest space right

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Speaker 1: the twenty nine percent who say they have a very

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Speaker 1: positive view of him, they are with him through thick

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Speaker 1: and thin. It's another eleven percent say say somewhat positive.

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Speaker 1: So you're looking at forty percent that just feel very

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Speaker 1: positively about Donald Trump, and is approve ratings forty three,

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Speaker 1: So it's just really only there's only three. If you

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Speaker 1: just assume that the forty of the forty three feel

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Speaker 1: very positive about him, it means that there aren't people

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Speaker 1: that approve of that don't like them and approve of

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Speaker 1: the job he's doing. There are people that don't like

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Speaker 1: them and don't and approve of his goals of what

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Speaker 1: he's trying to achieve, but they don't like how he's

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Speaker 1: trying to get those goals. And again, this poll features

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Speaker 1: some interesting things that will get us there, but the

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Speaker 1: big headline of this poll really is that generic ballot number,

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Speaker 1: and let me go, and it is. It is astonishing

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Speaker 1: that Democrats have an eight point lead October of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five eight point lead in the generic Democrats at fifty,

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Speaker 1: Republicans at forty two. The last time they had gaps

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Speaker 1: anywhere over five points, let alone eight nine or ten,

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Speaker 1: was in the run up to the twenty eighteen midterms.

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Speaker 1: So you're almost seeing we are in a repeat. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, Democrats are plus eight right basically one year

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Speaker 1: out from the midterms in the generic ballot. In October

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Speaker 1: of seventeen, the same point in time, one year out

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Speaker 1: from the twenty eighteen midterms, Democrats were up seven points

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Speaker 1: in the generic ballot. So as you can see, we

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Speaker 1: are trending in almost it looks like in the exact

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Speaker 1: we are literally having a rerun, right, it's a rerun

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Speaker 1: of the Trump job rating forty three percent. The entire

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Speaker 1: first term is forty three point seven. He's sitting at

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Speaker 1: forty three percent one year before the midterms and Trump

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Speaker 1: one point zero. Democrats out a seven point le in

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Speaker 1: the generic. One year before the midterms and Trump two

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Speaker 1: point zero. Democrats have an eight point lead in the generic.

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Speaker 1: So there's on one hand you think boy, history is

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Speaker 1: repeating itself. But there is one giant difference between twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen twenty seventeen, in twenty twenty six and twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: and it is the personal favorable rating of the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party versus the Republican Party. The Republican Party is a

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Speaker 1: positive rating of thirty seven percent, negative rating of forty

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Speaker 1: six percent. The Democratic Party is a positive rating of

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Speaker 1: twenty eight percent and a negative rating of fifty three percent.

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Speaker 1: Let me say that again, a negative rating of fifty

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Speaker 1: three percent. They have a twenty five point gap, okay,

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Speaker 1: between positive rating for the Democratic Party and the negative

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Speaker 1: rating for the Democratic Party fifty three percent. In contrast,

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Speaker 1: Republican Party's gap is less than is not even double digits.

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Speaker 1: It's thirty seven percent positive, forty six percent negative, just

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Speaker 1: a nine point negative gap. Donald Trump has a larger

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Speaker 1: negative gap between favorable and unfavorable than the Republican Party does.

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Speaker 1: This is an important nugget here, okay, because I think

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Speaker 1: this explained the generic ballot gap quite well and what

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Speaker 1: the voter is likely what we're likely seeing with the

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Speaker 1: swing voter. And again this is really going to go. Well,

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Speaker 1: what you're hearing with these polling numbers and I'm that

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Speaker 1: I'm delivering to you is going to really does sort

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Speaker 1: of coincide really well with the conversations you're going to

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Speaker 1: hear from Rich tw you know, the qualitative research focus

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Speaker 1: group stuff versus the quantitative that I'm giving you right now.

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Speaker 1: But that massive gap, and just to give you an

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Speaker 1: idea of where we were in October of twenty seventeen, Okay,

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Speaker 1: at this part to the most recent numbers I can

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Speaker 1: look at here December of twenty seventeen. Then a favorable

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Speaker 1: rating of the Democratic Party was thirty three percent. The

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Speaker 1: net negative was thirty eight percent. Okay, so just a

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Speaker 1: five point gap, Just a five point gap. It's now again,

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Speaker 1: that was a five point gap essentially one year out

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Speaker 1: from the twenty eight twenty eighteen midterms. Look, we know

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Speaker 1: the whole country is a net negative view of both

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Speaker 1: parties Okay, that we know that a majority of this

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Speaker 1: country doesn't like either political party. But you had a

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Speaker 1: five point gap in twenty At this point in time

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Speaker 1: in twenty seventeen on the Democratic Party favorable to unfavorable ratio,

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Speaker 1: it is a twenty five point gap. Now, now let

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Speaker 1: me tell you the Republican number so you can get

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Speaker 1: some clear clarity on that Republicans net. In twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: they were sitting at twenty nine forty five. Okay, essentially

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Speaker 1: one year out twenty nine forty five, that is a

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Speaker 1: sixteen point gap. Here they are with an improved Republican

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Speaker 1: Party rating this time where their gap is only nine

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Speaker 1: points less than ten. So Donald Trump hasn't changed, but

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Speaker 1: the Democratic Party has changed and the Republican Party has changed.

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Speaker 1: But what's interesting is that there appears to be a

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Speaker 1: group of voters that feel more favorably to the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party then they do Donald Trump. Now you would say, hmm,

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Speaker 1: that should lead to some interesting decisions by Republicans who

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Speaker 1: maybe want to be seeking reelection in twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: only are going to be dealing with two more years

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Speaker 1: of Trump and maybe want to seek distance. And of

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Speaker 1: course then you look at that base vote and the

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Speaker 1: devotion to Donald Trump that I showed you where essentially

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Speaker 1: to love Donald Trump is to approve of his job.

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Speaker 1: And they're the most important chunk of Republican primary voters.

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Speaker 1: So even though a majority of this country has a

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Speaker 1: lot more preference to generic Republican ideas versus generic Democratic

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Speaker 1: ideas versus Donald Trump, twenty right now, you can see

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Speaker 1: that the voters view the generic ballot question not as

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Speaker 1: a discussion between which party do you like better, the

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Speaker 1: Democrats or the Republicans. That is not the question, what Jude.

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Speaker 1: The reason that the Democrats have a large eight point

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Speaker 1: lead is that the question that voters are deciding between

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Speaker 1: is do you want Donald Trump? Do you want there

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Speaker 1: to be a check on Donald Trump? And right now

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Speaker 1: there is a huge desire for a check on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

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Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, you need somebody

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Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out for the People dot com,

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Speaker 1: Slash podcast or now pound law, Pound five two nine

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Speaker 1: law on your cell phone. And remember all law firms

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Speaker 1: are not the same. So check out Morgan and Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. Here's something that

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Speaker 1: was fascinating that surprises me. The democracy issue didn't really

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Speaker 1: work very well in twenty didn't work very well in

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Speaker 1: twenty two. I know there's a whole bunch of Biden

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Speaker 1: people that want to spin that it did. That was

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Speaker 1: not why they won in twenty and in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: It is hard to see that they won that way.

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Speaker 1: It was a disastrous democratic excuse me, Republican nominees that

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Speaker 1: allowed Democrats do not do as poorly as they ended

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Speaker 1: up could have done in a normal environment. Kamala Harris

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Speaker 1: quote closed with the democracy question. And yet those swing

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Speaker 1: voters weren't moved by the democracy question because in their minds,

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Speaker 1: they weren't electing a different Donald Trump for Trump two

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Speaker 1: point zero. In their mind they were electing a continuation

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Speaker 1: of Trump one point zero. But Trump two point zero

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Speaker 1: is not popular, and the single listen to this, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to read you the full question. When it comes

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Speaker 1: to deciding your vote for Congress next year, Please tell

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Speaker 1: me if each of the following is the single most

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Speaker 1: important issue in deciding how you will vote, a very

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Speaker 1: important issue, or only somewhat important. The single most important

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Speaker 1: issue to hit was protecting constitutional rights. Number two was

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Speaker 1: protecting democracy. Number three was cost of living, and so

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Speaker 1: that okay, healthcare was number four at ten, I'm trying

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Speaker 1: really hard to find an issue that benefits Donald Trump. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Number four was healthcare premiums. Number five was dealing with

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Speaker 1: the political violence in America. Okay, maybe that's possible. That's

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Speaker 1: a possible net to Trump it's possible voters on both

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Speaker 1: sides of the I'll see the other party at fault there.

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Speaker 1: Immigration and border security is also down there. Sort of healthcare,

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Speaker 1: political violence, immigration and border security all sat around the

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Speaker 1: same when you did the single most important. What's interesting

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Speaker 1: is that in twenty eighteen, the top two issues on

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Speaker 1: the single most important were healthcare and immigration. Here the

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Speaker 1: top two issues are protecting constitutional rights and protecting democracy,

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Speaker 1: which one might argue is the same thing. So do

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Speaker 1: you end up combining those numbers so you essentially have

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Speaker 1: half of respondents in some form or another, picking some

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Speaker 1: form of the structure of the democracy that really irritates them.

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Speaker 1: So now when you see that that is the number

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Speaker 1: one and number two issue, I've given you the fact

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Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party is more unpopular than Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and more and popular than the Republican Party, and yet

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Speaker 1: Democrats are winning the generic ballot by eight points. Folks

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Speaker 1: don't like how Donald Trump is running roughshot over the presidency.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you a few more questions to give

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Speaker 1: you a little bit more, a little bit more issues

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Speaker 1: on this. So, for instance, they did a great question

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Speaker 1: here they said, thinking about President Trump and his administration

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the following issues. Is the Trump

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Speaker 1: administration living up to your expectations or has it fallen short?

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Speaker 1: And they tested six issues, border security, foreign policy, changing

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Speaker 1: business as usual in Washington, the economy, looking up for

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Speaker 1: the middle class, and inflation in the cost of living.

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Speaker 1: A majority believe that the Trump administration is so far

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Speaker 1: one year from the election, has so far fallen short

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Speaker 1: fifty three percent say they fallen short. And foreign policy

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Speaker 1: fifty six percent on changing business as usual in Washington,

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Speaker 1: huge huge red flag there. That's all those crypto deals

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Speaker 1: and all this sort of you know, pay to play issues.

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Speaker 1: Sixty three percent say he's falling short in the economy.

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Speaker 1: That is a huge driver in here. People do not

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Speaker 1: like this economy and you can feel it in this poll.

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Speaker 1: Sixty five percent say he's falling short and looking out

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Speaker 1: for the middle classt Row rut Row, mister Trump, and

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Speaker 1: sixty six percent say that he's fallen short on inflation

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Speaker 1: and costs of living just one issue. Do A majority

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Speaker 1: believe he has lived up to the expectations that they

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Speaker 1: had for his presidency. And I'm sure all of you

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Speaker 1: can guess the issue because I haven't.

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Speaker 2: Said it yet.

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Speaker 1: It is border security and immigration, fifty one percent say

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Speaker 1: he's lived up to expectations on that and that, boy,

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Speaker 1: does that tell you a lot. And to indicate how

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Speaker 1: much more trouble Trump and the Republicans are with the economy,

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Speaker 1: they did an issue test between the two parties. Republicans

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Speaker 1: lead on border security by thirty one points. They lead

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Speaker 1: on dealing with crime by twenty two points. They lead

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Speaker 1: on dealing with immigration by eighteen points. On the economy,

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Speaker 1: in September of twenty twenty three, Republicans led by twenty

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Speaker 1: one points between the two parties, and now their lead

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Speaker 1: is one one point. This is the worst showing for

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Speaker 1: the Republicans on this issue the economy since you guessed

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Speaker 1: it twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen in the run up

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Speaker 1: to the first midterm of Donald Trump. So as you

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Speaker 1: can see, oh more importantly, on the issue of protecting

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Speaker 1: constitutional rights, eight point advantage for Democrats on this. On

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Speaker 1: the issue of protecting democracy eleven point advantage for Democrats

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Speaker 1: on this. We ask those same two questions in September

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty three, Republicans had an eight point lead

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Speaker 1: on the protecting our constitutional rights issue, and Republicans had

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Speaker 1: a one point lead on protecting democracy. Both of those

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Speaker 1: issues are moving towards the Democrats. Now, some of this

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Speaker 1: is natural. The party out of power is seen as

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Speaker 1: the one more likely to stand up for constitutional rights

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Speaker 1: than the party empower. Most people assume the party empower

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Speaker 1: is always looking for loophole or trying to erode rights.

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Speaker 1: Those that are upset feel as if the party out

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Speaker 1: of power is the one that actually cares about the Constitution.

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Speaker 1: And you could argue that we've seen this right. Members

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Speaker 1: of Congress care more about the Constitution when they're in

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Speaker 1: the minority in either the House of the Senate then

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Speaker 1: they do when they're in the majority.

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Speaker 2: How do we know this?

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Speaker 1: Just look at all the Republicans staying silent on the

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Speaker 1: unconstitutional way that Donald Trump is conducting his war against Venezuela,

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Speaker 1: because that's what he's doing right now. They have essentially

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Speaker 1: declared war with Venezuela without going to Congress, without getting

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Speaker 1: you know, with it. Now they claim it's not even

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Speaker 1: shouldn't even be subject to.

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Speaker 2: The War Powers Act.

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Speaker 1: The lack of interest among most of congressional Republicans in

436
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:36,719
Speaker 1: protecting the Constitution on this issue, I think is what's happening.

437
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 1: It's not one issue here, it's a collection of it. Right,

438
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 1: They've he keeps losing in court. So there's there's usually

439
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,479
Speaker 1: a headline about once a week where the federal courts

440
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: say Trump violated the constitution or the Trump administration violated

441
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 1: the constitution.

442
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 2: Maybe it's on National.

443
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: Guard trips, maybe it's on what what what they've been doing.

444
00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 2: With tariffs?

445
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: Right, But and every it does seem as if every

446
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: week and these headlines. If you look at this poll,

447
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 1: and in some ways do I do I wish NBC

448
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 1: News would do the Heart macin Turth poll once a month. Yes,

449
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: that was the pace with which we did it back

450
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: when when we were a news organization that was a

451
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 1: lot bigger and going a lot big. Obviously, they're in

452
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: a different all of the legacy media companies are in

453
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,400
Speaker 1: a different place and don't want to spend the money

454
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 1: that they once did. But interestingly, doing this poll six

455
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: you know, having a six month gap, you sort of

456
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: you can see the bigger shifts. Right, they're brighter. It's

457
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 1: not the slow erosion. You see the brighter. You see

458
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: the bright lines. And here's one more question. If you're

459
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: not sure, if you think I'm reading too much into

460
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 1: the issue of democracy and constitutional rights. Let me just

461
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: show you this one last question. Compared to past presidents,

462
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 1: do you think Donald Trump has done more to protect

463
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 1: the US Constitution, done more to undermine the US Constitution,

464
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,360
Speaker 1: or he's been no differ than past presidents. Thirty one

465
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: percent said he's done more to protect. Remember that's the

466
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,959
Speaker 1: super core base. Fifty two percent say he's done more

467
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 1: to undermine. Just sixteen percent say he's no different than

468
00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 1: past presidents fifty two percent. Anytime you see a majority,

469
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: I've shown you how unpopular the Democratic Party is to me.

470
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: Anytime I see numbers in fifty plus, it means a

471
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 1: majority of whatever that number is is what the independence

472
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: split is, and it means self described independence are uncomfortable

473
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: with this, and this, this is this is I think.

474
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: So he's You've got an economy that isn't working for

475
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: a lot of people. Again, how do we know this?

476
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 1: Sixty one percent say they say their family's income is

477
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,160
Speaker 1: falling behind when it comes to cost of living issues.

478
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 1: Only six percent say their incomes going up faster. Only

479
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: thirty one percent said saying they're breaking even So you

480
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: have nearly two thirds of the country say they're falling behind.

481
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 1: You've got a majority of the country saying the president's

482
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 1: undermining the constitution. It's you can now see the picture

483
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: where an unpopular opposition party can then be successful in

484
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: the midterms because we continue the same cycle we've been

485
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: in arguably since the second Obama term, which is we

486
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: continue to vote out what we don't like, and we

487
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: vote in unknowns. We're willing to try something different if

488
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: something's being pitched differently, we're sometimes willing to try the

489
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: same thing again, but this time with a different face.

490
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: So instead of Speaker Pelosi, this time it may be

491
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: Speaker Jeffreys. Maybe that'll change things, right, But we continue

492
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: to vote out. We are not voting in anything. We

493
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: are not voting in ideas we are throwing out. Is

494
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: that is what twenty sixteen was about. It was what

495
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,679
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen was about, What twenty sixteen was about, what

496
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen was about, what twenty twenty was about, what

497
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two was about, what twenty twenty four was about. Yes,

498
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: I'm repeating all of those years to make this point

499
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 1: and drive it home, and here we go again. Everything

500
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: is being set up here now this doesn't mean Democratic

501
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 1: success in the midterms is automatically going to mean they

502
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: should be the favorite going into the general election in

503
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. But what you see developing here is

504
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 1: is you have people don't like Trump's presidency. They don't

505
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 1: like how he's conducting himself. That is a huge issue

506
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: that is accruing to the benefit of the Democrats, even

507
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 1: though they don't necessarily have much confidence in the Democrats.

508
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 1: They prefer the Republicans on a lot of law and

509
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: order issue right as I was just detailing. So the challenge,

510
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: So if you're a presidential candidate and you're reading this poll,

511
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: your challenge is you're going to have to come up

512
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: with a positive vision. You can run against Trump and

513
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: be negative and succeed in a midterm. You can do

514
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 1: it and succeed in a California referendum in order to

515
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 1: get voter permission to redraw maps, change the constitution and

516
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: get them to do that. But it's why I don't

517
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: say this automatically translates to Gavenus and being the front

518
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: runner for to become the next president, because we are

519
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: going to want you know, I think any particularly a

520
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: Democratic nominee, is going to have to demonstrate that they

521
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: want to try something different, that they're not going to

522
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: be a stereotype Democrat that the voter seems to have

523
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: in mind. Now it's up to you, presidential candidate x

524
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: Y or Z or presidential candidate Joshaperrol and shapeer Wes Moore,

525
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: whoever else is going to jump into this thing. You're

526
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: going to have to find out. And this is what's

527
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: going to make the Rich Tyle conversation I think so

528
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 1: fruitful here and really sort of help you take what

529
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: I just told you in the hard numbers here and

530
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: the quantitative research and be able to understand sort of

531
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: why these swing voters are behaving this way. And ultimately,

532
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 1: the best politicians know, you've got to speak to the

533
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: swing voters first. Yes, you know, in some ways the

534
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 1: base is going to be easy to fire up. Donald

535
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: Trump is always taking the easy way out. So he

536
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 1: just governs to the base, caters to the base, because

537
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 1: it keeps a high floor, It protects him politically right,

538
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: it keeps him just strong enough to avoid getting thrown

539
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 1: out of office, to avoid getting thrown out of and ultimately,

540
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: because on cultural issues, the Democratic Party clearly is just

541
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: so out of sync with where the country is. It's

542
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: it's clear to me that between that and I think

543
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: some angry independences who blamed the Democrats for the second

544
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: Trump term, all right, you know, I certainly think that

545
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: that Joe Biden. You know, I think one of the

546
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: worst comments Gavin Newsom made recently that I think is

547
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: going to come back to bide him is when he

548
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 1: said that the Biden presidency was terrific. You cannot You're

549
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 1: not going to win swing voters making the case that

550
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: Biden's presidency was terrific. It may age well, but it's

551
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: going to age well the way Harry Truman's presidency aged well.

552
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: It took thirty years before people decided he had he

553
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: had a good presidency. It did not happen in two,

554
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: four or six years. Adelaie Stevenson wasn'trunning on the good

555
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,840
Speaker 1: old days of Harry Truman, and if he did, he

556
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: was going to lose anyway to an American war hero

557
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: named Generalizmahower. So I would just you know, and so

558
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 1: when he said that, you know, I don't think Gavinuwsom

559
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: understands that there's a whole bunch of middle of the

560
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 1: road voters who simply wanted one thing from Joe Biden's

561
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 1: presidency to move the country in a direction so they

562
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: didn't go back to Donald Trump. And the fact that

563
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is back, there's always going to be

564
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: a chunk of voters that say it's Joe Biden's fault.

565
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: His presidency wasn't good enough, he didn't leave soon enough.

566
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: Whatever it is, there's gonna be different subjective reasons for it.

567
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 1: But ultimately, whether it's his policies, whether it was the

568
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 1: way he messaged or didn't message, get it, staying in

569
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: the race too long, all of those things right, And

570
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 1: that's why I think it's it is. I don't know

571
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 1: if being pro Joe Biden is good in a Democratic

572
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: primary either for what it's worth. So I don't I

573
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: admire the loyalty if he just did it for loyalty purposes.

574
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,760
Speaker 1: But this is not where the voters are. This is

575
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: not where the voters are at all. In fact, I

576
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: think you can thank Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Nakim Jeffries,

577
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: the three of them together for the Democrats giant in

578
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 1: that negative problem. No, by the way, none of these

579
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: numbers are good for Jeffries and Schumer inside the Democratic Party,

580
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 1: because even though you have a good number of the

581
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: generic ballot for Democrats, it shows Democrats, the winning Democrats

582
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: are going to be running against Washington, running against the

583
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: old leadership of the Democratic Party. And yes, Jakim Jeffries,

584
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: you're going to be considered part of the establishment, not

585
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: part of the new wave of leaders not unless you

586
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 1: figure out a way to break out of this. And

587
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: I don't know if you can. I think it's hard.

588
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: I think it's difficult, and certainly it seems as if

589
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: you've been a bit risk averse in trying to establish

590
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 1: yourself as different from Schumer. But there's no doubt if

591
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: Jeffries is going to have a chance at being seeing

592
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: as a new leader of the party, he's got to

593
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 1: figure out how to separate himself from Schumer or Schumer

594
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 1: is going to have at some point do the party

595
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: a favor and indicate that you know, he's not he

596
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: doesn't want to coach next year, to put this in

597
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: coaching terms, since that's the.

598
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 2: The coin of the realm these days.

599
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: So with that, there's to me, there's where America is at.

600
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: What they think of the two parties, what they think

601
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: of this presidency. Where we're at one year from the election,

602
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: second election to Donald Trump, one year in with our

603
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 1: off off year elections coming Tuesday. Don't forget the election

604
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: night live stream on YouTube on X wherever you find me,

605
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: wherever you find Decision to s HQ, wherever you find

606
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: solicit we will be in all of those places simultaneously.

607
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 1: It's an election live stream for true political professionals and

608
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 1: political junkies. This is where it's happening. Go check it out.

609
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 1: In fact, this poll has indicated more people watch YouTube

610
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 1: than legacy television. Now, just think of that. That's according

611
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 1: to an NBC News poll, their own numbers. NBC is

612
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 1: indicating more people will watch YouTube before they watch legacy TV.

613
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: All right, are you public opinioned out?

614
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: You might be a little bit.

615
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 1: So this is a perfect time to take a pause

616
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 1: and let's go into the podcast time machine. Sorry, I

617
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 1: always want to say there's some sort of blue It's

618
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 1: sort of an old Scooby Doo thing in my head, right,

619
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: you know where there was who anyway, But here's the

620
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 1: subject matter. If you want to understand why US relationships

621
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: across the Western hemisphere remained so uneasy. You have to

622
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: go back to nineteen o three. That's right, we are

623
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: going back to nineteen o three, because it was this

624
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: week in nineteen o three that the United States of

625
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 1: America helped create a country.

626
00:35:02,040 --> 00:35:02,720
Speaker 2: Called Panama.

627
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: So, in fact, the title of this time cast Toodcast

628
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: time Machine segment, there's only one title you can come

629
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:16,439
Speaker 1: up with, if you know, if you know me at all,

630
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 1: And I'll do a little shout out there to d Jones.

631
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: A man a planed Panama. It's everyone's favorite palindrome, and

632
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 1: in some ways it's America's favorite myth.

633
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: Right.

634
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: It's the story of bold leadership, big machinery, and destiny

635
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 1: carved through jungle and rock. But underneath this heroic narrative

636
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 1: is something darker. It's the birth of a pattern that

637
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: has defined US relations with Latin America for more than

638
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: a century. It's the moment when America learned how to

639
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: build nations the way we build infrastructure, engineered to serve

640
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 1: our needs first and there's later. And if you look

641
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 1: at our posture towards Venezuela at the moment, the mix

642
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:01,080
Speaker 1: of moral intent and strategic control, it's hard not to

643
00:36:01,120 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: feel like.

644
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,240
Speaker 2: We have seen this movie before.

645
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 1: But let's go back. Let's go through the podcast history

646
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: lesson of the day. At the dawn of the twentieth century,

647
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: the United States, of course, was emerging from being a

648
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: new nation to an empire. The Spanish American War. It

649
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 1: turned us into a global superpower, and global powers always

650
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:24,720
Speaker 1: are looking to expand their power, to flex their muscle,

651
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: if you will. Two potential routes, and at the time,

652
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:32,320
Speaker 1: we really really wanted to dominate shipping, and we needed

653
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: a route through, essentially from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

654
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 1: There were two potential routes to create a canal. There

655
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: was the Nicaragua and Panama. The French under Ferdinand de

656
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: les SEPs He's the guy that did the Suez Canal.

657
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 1: He tried Panama first, and he failed spectacularly. There was disease, corruption,

658
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: bankruptcy killed twenty thousand workers. The dream itself seemed dead,

659
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: but the French company that he had that did this

660
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 1: still held the rights to this little strip of land

661
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: in Panama. Writes that a smooth talking engineer named Philippe

662
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:10,880
Speaker 1: Buna Verilla was determined to sell, so he lobbied Washington

663
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 1: relentlessly and found a willing buyer in President Theodore Roosevelt.

664
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: Let's just say, you know, we love Teddy, but he

665
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: was one enthusiastic imperialist. In nineteen oh three, the Roosevelt

666
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: administration cut a deal with Colombia, which then governed the

667
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: territory now known as Panama. That deal, which was known

668
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 1: as the Hey Haran Treaty, was named after the two

669
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: negotiators of the said treaty, the Secretary of State at

670
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: the time, John Hay and Colombia's envoy Tomas Haran. And

671
00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 1: the deal was this. The US offered Columbia ten million

672
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 1: dollars up front it's a lot of money at that time, right,

673
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: and an additional two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a

674
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:54,959
Speaker 1: year for a very narrow strip of land to build

675
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 1: the canal. But the Colombian Senate refused to ratify this treaty.

676
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 1: They wanted a better price, and they wanted more control

677
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: of the land. While Roosevelt didn't like it. He didn't

678
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: like that answer. He called the Colombians foolish and homicidal,

679
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 1: and he muttered that he was being dealt with by bandits.

680
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 1: So then Buona Verrilla, the French engineer salesman whispered a

681
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: different idea. Hey, mister president, what if Panama just stopped

682
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 1: being part of Colombia. So November third, nineteen oh three, Okay,

683
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 1: see where we're going here. It's this week, November three today, actually,

684
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,040
Speaker 1: as this podcast is first airing, the anniversary of a

685
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: small group of Panamanian separatists declared independence. Within hours, US

686
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: warships appeared in the harbor, coincidentally blocking Colombian troops from landing,

687
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: and by November sixth, the United States recognized the new

688
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: Republic of Panama, and less than two weeks later, Roosevelt

689
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: got the treaty he wanted all along. But this time

690
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,920
Speaker 1: the treaty was called the hey now, Varrilla Treaty, signed

691
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: by you guessed it, Bunaverilla himself, a Frenchman acting as

692
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: Panama's representative. Remember he was just a businessman that seemed

693
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 1: to own the rights to build this canal, and he

694
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,880
Speaker 1: signs the treaty on behalf of this new nation. The

695
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 1: treaty gave the US sovereign control over a ten mile

696
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 1: wide canal zone in perpetuity, which, of course, eventually, during

697
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 1: the Jimmy Carter presidency, we would hand back, and Roosevelt

698
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: couldn't help but brag about it, right, he said, I

699
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 1: took the Smiths. It was at once a great feet

700
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:36,399
Speaker 1: of engineering in human history, probably the greatest and one

701
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 1: of the clearest examples of America using its muscle to

702
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:43,280
Speaker 1: redraw someone else's map. The Panama Canal opened in nineteen fourteen,

703
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 1: the world applauded, Latin America took notes. Now, this is

704
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 1: a little interlude I thought I would include. Is this where,

705
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 1: because I'll be honest, I was conflating the following. Is

706
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: this where? The term banana republic came from? Sort of

707
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 1: but not quite certain the era, So a quick history lesson.

708
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 1: The term banana republic actually comes from Honduras, not Panama.

709
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 1: It was coined by American writer oh Henry in nineteen

710
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: oh four, and it was in a short story collection

711
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 1: called Cabbages and Kings. He had fled to Honduras to

712
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: avoid an embezzlement charge himself, and he used the phrase

713
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: to describe a fictional country on Churia that was small, unstable,

714
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: and entirely dependent on American fruit companies, well, the United

715
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 1: Fruit Company, the Banana Company, if you will, a real

716
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 1: US corporation basically ran parts of Central America back then,

717
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 1: the so called Banana republics. That's how this all came from.

718
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,760
Speaker 1: This United Fruit Company built railroads, built ports, even influenced coups.

719
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: The governments were nominally independent, but the real power lay

720
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 1: with the investors themselves. So Panama didn't coin the term,

721
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 1: but in many ways it embodied the idea because what

722
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 1: happened in Panama, local elite seeking power, foreign capital providing muscle,

723
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: and Washington enforcing the deal was the same exact three

724
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 1: step model that would define all of our interventions for

725
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: the next century. In last in America, Panama was the

726
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 1: first republic built to order, not for its citizens, but

727
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 1: for American commerce. Now you may be asking yourself, well, jeez, now,

728
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:13,680
Speaker 1: I know why half of a Latin American ever trust

729
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: the United States.

730
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 2: You know you do, don't you.

731
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 1: So from that point on the region's politics became a

732
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: pendulum swing between dependents and defiance. You'd have one generation

733
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: strong man was the next generation's nationalists. You can trace

734
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 1: this oscillation back and forth, pro us anti us, pro

735
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: us anti us. We see it right now in Columbia.

736
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 1: Right now we have a president who won by being

737
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: a bit more distant from the US, the previous president

738
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 1: won because he was pro us And it goes back

739
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 1: and forth. We saw it in Cuba in the twentieth century, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,

740
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:48,360
Speaker 1: each cycle shaped by how America's good intentions collided with

741
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:53,919
Speaker 1: its control instincts. It's the defining political rhythm of this hemisphere.

742
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 1: You know, are we the bad guys? Are we the

743
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: good guys? Do we care about the people or do

744
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 1: we just care about the resource? If you trust Washington,

745
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 1: your country may prosper a little bit. If you resent Washington,

746
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: you revolt, but you may suffer economically. So the canal itself,

747
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 1: in many ways, right was both the symbol and the

748
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: seed of this pattern. So let's fast forward twenty twenty five,

749
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: same story, sort of right, playing out right now with

750
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: different props. Venezuela, once one of the richest democracies in

751
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 1: Latin America, spent two decades spiraling under authoritarian rule, corruption,

752
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 1: economic collapse. Millions have fled. It's part of the huge,

753
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: the largest diaspora outside of any Right, there are more

754
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 1: Venezuelan refugees lately than any other country, creating refugees, people

755
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 1: are just fleeing this country. And yes, the desire to

756
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:48,280
Speaker 1: help restore democracy is a real, legitimate and even moral goal,

757
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 1: but how we pursue this goal is going to be

758
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 1: a real test. We've used sanctions, covid AID, diplomatic pressure,

759
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 1: even lethal strikes off the Venezuelan coast justified. We're calling

760
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 1: it this anti narcotics mission when it's increasingly clear we

761
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: simply are trying to remove Maduro. The voters tried to

762
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,399
Speaker 1: remove him and they couldn't do it. But we're not

763
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 1: making this the reason why we're doing it, right, We're

764
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 1: sort of we're Trump's He's creating. He's creating. We have

765
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:16,280
Speaker 1: a drug problem in this country. We have a federal

766
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: problem in this country, but it's not from Venezuela. So

767
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: he's using what we really a real problem that we

768
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 1: have that's a derivative of Mexico and China and instead

769
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 1: using that as the pretext to go after Venezuela because

770
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: maybe he thinks politically he could never just sell democracy

771
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 1: as the reason to go help and get rid of Maduro.

772
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 1: So we do say it at times, right, our motives

773
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 1: or democracy, human rights, stability, it all sounds noble, but

774
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: our methods, unilateral enforcement, economic coercion. It reminds the region

775
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: of every time we've claimed to build something for them

776
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 1: that it mostly was about serving us, right, And how

777
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: does Venezuela end, right? Does it end with us just

778
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 1: simply wanting more access to the oil. Look at how

779
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: we go back and forth. We just want that oil,

780
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 1: more access to their resources. Are we in it for

781
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: the long haul to just actually provide independent democracy, not

782
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 1: democracy dependent on the United States, but true independence, true

783
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:16,839
Speaker 1: independent democracy. But right now I do fear how we're

784
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: going about this is only reigniting the same cycle of

785
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 1: resentment that develops right and it forms these nationalist movements

786
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:31,279
Speaker 1: that push out people that are pro democracy. So we're

787
00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 1: here the same one hundred year oscillation is back. Leaders

788
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 1: run as reformers, they become populous, they start pro us,

789
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,319
Speaker 1: they end a skeptics, every demagogue, every strong man from

790
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,720
Speaker 1: Havana to Caracas, they've all learned to weaponize this history

791
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 1: to tell their citizens, you may not like me, but

792
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 1: at least I'm not them. I'm standing in between them

793
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: truly taking over this country. Right, at least I'm one

794
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: of you. And that's something that I think we've got

795
00:44:57,280 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: to be careful of as we essentially try to play,

796
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 1: try to play be cop here and how we're doing it.

797
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: If we're essentially lying about why we're there, which right

798
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 1: now we are with this drug pretext, it is not

799
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 1: going to allow for this to be as stable as.

800
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 2: I think we think it is.

801
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: So maybe here's the Palin Drum's other meeting. A man

802
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: a planed Panama. One man's plan, Teddy Roosevelt's built a

803
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:26,320
Speaker 1: canal and built a century of contradictions. It opened the

804
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 1: world to trade, and it opened a wound in the

805
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 1: hemisphere that still hasn't fully healed. So if we want

806
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 1: a different legacy in Venezuela or anywhere else south of

807
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 1: the Rio Grand, we have to show that our plans

808
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 1: serve the region's needs, not just our needs, because until

809
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 1: we do, Latin America will keep reading our policies backward

810
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: and they will still see a man a plan Panama.

811
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 2: There's your history lesson.

812
00:45:50,719 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 1: For today and how the past is so connected to

813
00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: the present. All right, and now let's get the questions,

814
00:46:06,239 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 1: ask Chuck. First question comes from Damien B. Chambersburg, Pennsylvania,

815
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 1: and Damien asks, I know we all hope that the

816
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 1: old guard of the GOP will show a backbone to Mega.

817
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: Do you think the recent comment by Ted Cruz and

818
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell condemning anti Semitism in the party and actually

819
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,880
Speaker 1: addressing an issue we all knew was there since twenty

820
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 1: seventeen might be a catalyst for others to stand up

821
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: for more of the values and norms we know they support.

822
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: You know, most of these members better than their constituents.

823
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: Just curious if you think this is a blipper trend. Also,

824
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 1: hearing your Ojeron impression made me think of the TV

825
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 1: show Young Rock and the scenes where he was at

826
00:46:42,400 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 1: the U. If you haven't seen it, you need to

827
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: watch the one where he spends Christmas with Coach Ojeron.

828
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 2: It's hilarious.

829
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 1: I can only imagine and that look, you now know

830
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:54,240
Speaker 1: why I have such a soft spot for Ojeron because

831
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 1: I consider my Miami boy. He's our Cajun, He's our Cajun. Kine.

832
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: If you will, I haven't seen Young Rock. I should

833
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,400
Speaker 1: I should be more loyal to the Rock because of

834
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 1: his kingdom. I do have you know there is a rookie,

835
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 1: the rookie card for the Rock is a Bumblebee was

836
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: a Bumblebee set of Tuna cards was brought to you

837
00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 1: by Bumblebee Tuna and it was in a perforated sheet

838
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: and you had, like I think I'm staring at it

839
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,439
Speaker 1: right now, of the ninety one team and there were

840
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: nine cards in it. And I finally bought one for

841
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: about three hundred bucks that I didn't have a Rock Rookie.

842
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: And the reason was only about three hundred bucks because

843
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 1: these things go up really high. I was going to

844
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 1: grade it. I was all excited, and there was these

845
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 1: scratch like light scratches that you couldn't see in the

846
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 1: eBay picture that you could see in there.

847
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 2: So I have it.

848
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 1: It's sort of my one homage to the Rock, but

849
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: it's the Rock in his University of my uniform. It

850
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 1: is the Rock Rookie card, if you will. Before is

851
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 1: wrestling cards for anything else. The first actual card. And

852
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 1: these Bumblebee cards used to come in the programs that

853
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 1: you bought when you went to the football games. They'd

854
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 1: do them as inserts, and I have the one with

855
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:04,880
Speaker 1: Mario Christabal. I never actually had the one forever reason

856
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 1: my mother would go to every game when I was

857
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 1: in college and she'd save the programs. But for whatever reason,

858
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 1: I misplaced the program that had the rock sheet in it.

859
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 1: But I do have the one with Mario Chris Ball

860
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 1: in it. Okay, but I digress. You asked the more

861
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 1: serious question, which is are we going to start to

862
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,839
Speaker 1: see The answer is yes. And the thing is is that,

863
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: you know, I actually think we're seeing similar trends that

864
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 1: we saw on the first term. Now I know that

865
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: there are people out there going I can't believe more

866
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:32,680
Speaker 1: people aren't outraged about X, Y or Z. But if

867
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 1: you look at guys like Roger Wicker, Okay, he's Chairman

868
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,759
Speaker 1: of Senate Armed Services, Mississippi Republican, nobody is more. You know,

869
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 1: this is a guy who's who is a conservative all right,

870
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 1: definitely defines himself as a conservative, and he's very uncomfortable

871
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 1: with the way the Pentagon is mistreating Congress. He's got

872
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: a good relationship with the ranking member and Armed Services.

873
00:48:56,880 --> 00:49:00,200
Speaker 1: It's just that is not how that they've he's ever operated.

874
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: He knows that that isn't the way they operate, and

875
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 1: he's you know, he will put out joint statements with

876
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: the ranking members saying the Pentagon should be doing this

877
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 1: and should be doing that. You've had Mike Brownd the

878
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 1: Republican centator from South Dakota not named John Thune, who's

879
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 1: also done this every time and then and look at

880
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: the small group of Republicans that said no to the

881
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,720
Speaker 1: to the filibusters. So it's you know what I always

882
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,400
Speaker 1: want to remind people if if if you're looking for

883
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: Republicans to take up your issues and you come from

884
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,319
Speaker 1: the left or left of center, that you're probably not

885
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:30,920
Speaker 1: going to find.

886
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 2: But if you're looking up.

887
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: For Republicans that are uncomfortable with how far Trump's taken things,

888
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: you're going to find quite a bit.

889
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 2: Right.

890
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz didn't like what Brendan Carr did on Kimmelin's

891
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 1: speech and how he threatened used Mafio so terms to

892
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:46,439
Speaker 1: do that. You've seen this, this appeasement by the way

893
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 1: Heritage is now appeasing the anti Semitic wing of the MAGA.

894
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: And the thing is is this it is interesting to

895
00:49:54,040 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: see the condemnation right. Those of us who are not

896
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 1: stuck in the hard left or hard right unfortunately are

897
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 1: very aware that these anti Semitism wings of both parties

898
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: have existed for some time. I love it I have

899
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,759
Speaker 1: a friend of mine who said, I didn't realize how

900
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:09,799
Speaker 1: much of it was on the right. I knew it

901
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: was on the left. And this person was a conserv

902
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 1: is a conservative, and he goes, I'm now starting to

903
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 1: see it on the right, and I'm like, dude, I

904
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:17,400
Speaker 1: was getting it from the right and the left anti

905
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,239
Speaker 1: Semites from the very beginning. I saw it during the

906
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 1: rise of Occupy Wall Street and during the rise of

907
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 1: Mega and when Donald Trump came down that you know again,

908
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 1: I hear the words populism, and the first thing I

909
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,320
Speaker 1: think of is here come the attacks on the Jews.

910
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,360
Speaker 1: And it doesn't matter if it's right wing populism or

911
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,879
Speaker 1: left wing populism, they all target the Jews first. It's

912
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 1: almost like it's like in the populist playbook at times.

913
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 2: And so.

914
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: You know, I am I think, and especially as the

915
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: second term sets in and he sits there, it's what

916
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 1: I said at the top, he said, sitting at forty

917
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 1: three percent, you have growing numbers of independents don't like

918
00:50:57,000 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 1: what he's doing with the democracy and thwarting the institution.

919
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 1: I just think that it's again, some of it may

920
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: feel like soft pushback, not hard pushback. Some of it,

921
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:10,760
Speaker 1: you know, all of those things, but it's it is happening,

922
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 1: and I actually think this will just be a slow increase,

923
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 1: especially from a guy like Ted Cruz, who himself would.

924
00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 2: Like to run for president.

925
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 1: And carve out and I think you'll you know what

926
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 1: it'll be really interesting is when you know, I know

927
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 1: that JD. Vance, you know, is sort of vary. He's

928
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,120
Speaker 1: only one layer removed from the Tucker wing of the

929
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 1: anti Semitic wing of of that party, and and he's

930
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 1: you know, a bit more of an isolationist than Trump

931
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: ever was, and all of those things. Right, Somebody said

932
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:40,880
Speaker 1: something that I actually agree with, which is the irony

933
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 1: is the least Maga of the MEGA people are?

934
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 2: Is Donald Trump? Right?

935
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 1: In some ways, the Mega is more pure than Trump

936
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: ever was with MEGA, but it also is why he

937
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 1: can move more than anybody else, and Mega doesn't get

938
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,720
Speaker 1: upset as upset with him. It'll be interesting to see

939
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:57,919
Speaker 1: when you start to see Ted Cruz will go after

940
00:51:58,000 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 1: Vance on things that he won't go after Trump on.

941
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 1: And that's what I would expect to start to see

942
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: more of in the next You're going to see more

943
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 1: of that, I think in the next few months, not

944
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: less of it next and it's particularly over the next

945
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 1: year or two, especially because Vance is going to be

946
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:15,439
Speaker 1: the guy they all want to knock down a peck.

947
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Bill as anyone conducted a focus

948
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 1: group just on independent voters on how they are feeling

949
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 1: about Trump, Johnson congressional Democrats are Republicans. I really am

950
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 1: enjoying your podcast and looking forward to them between now

951
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 1: and November twenty twenty eight. Well, Bill, we stuck your

952
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 1: question in here because now I look like I'm some

953
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 1: sort of prescient person, But the fact is I'm answering

954
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 1: your question. Hopefully you've just listened to the episode with

955
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 1: Rich Daal. This very episode that I answer your question.

956
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,840
Speaker 1: We feature not quite what you were looking for, but

957
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 1: I would argue a focus group of voters that voted

958
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 1: Biden in twenty and Trump in twenty twenty four, and

959
00:52:49,040 --> 00:52:51,680
Speaker 1: the conversation I had with Rich here. These are I

960
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:53,439
Speaker 1: just so you know, my goal is to have rich

961
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:56,560
Speaker 1: on once a quarter. He is the way Mark Zandy

962
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 1: helps I think helps me and the rest of my

963
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,919
Speaker 1: listeners understand where the economy isn't headed. I think he's

964
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: the least partisan voice you can find out there. He's

965
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: just a data numbers guy.

966
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 2: He sees it.

967
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 1: He's got, you know, a consistency about him. Rich Tile's

968
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:14,319
Speaker 1: got the same he's sort of built the same way.

969
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:16,600
Speaker 1: He sees this through a prism of what is not

970
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:19,239
Speaker 1: what he wishes it would be. And rich is going

971
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 1: to become a regular contributor and a regular guest here,

972
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 1: and we're going to feature these these more of these

973
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: focus groups. So I hope I'm excited about it. Rich

974
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 1: is excited about it, and I you know, we didn't.

975
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 1: We sort of hinted at it in our conversation there

976
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 1: at the end, but we're we're going to try to

977
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,359
Speaker 1: put together something a bit more formal. Michael T from

978
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 1: Chicago Rights always appreciate your insight. Almost all of my

979
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 1: national political news I get from you.

980
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 2: Now that's a.

981
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: Little bit of pressure, Michael. I'm going to have to

982
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:50,799
Speaker 1: make sure I'm I'm not leaving too much stuff out right.

983
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: Question for you on shutdown strategies of them say they

984
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 1: need a deal on ACA subsidies before they open the government.

985
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 1: A Republicans say open the government and we'll talk. Why

986
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:00,160
Speaker 1: don't the Democrats agree to open the government for a

987
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 1: week to give Republicans a chance to prove they will

988
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 1: negotiate in good faith. If the Republicans then refuse to

989
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 1: move on health care, the Democrats can refuse another bunch

990
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,799
Speaker 1: of votes. Michael I would argue that's been sitting on

991
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 1: the table for Democrats to do for a while. Republicans

992
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 1: were only trying to keep the government open through the

993
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 1: third week of November. This is why I think they've

994
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,280
Speaker 1: sort of made their point by the way government shutdown.

995
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 1: The one polling question I didn't include in the top

996
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 1: polling there from the beginning, So this is a good

997
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:32,239
Speaker 1: time to make note of this in that poll on

998
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 1: the shutdown. This is one of those instances where how

999
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:39,959
Speaker 1: you report the number will confuse. You may have seen

1000
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:43,399
Speaker 1: the NBC News poll say a majority blame Republicans more

1001
00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,080
Speaker 1: than they blame Democrats. That is not how the question

1002
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,319
Speaker 1: was asked by the NBC News pollsters. Let me read

1003
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:52,719
Speaker 1: you exactly how the question was asked, and then you'll

1004
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 1: realize why. I think there's a little bit of you're

1005
00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:00,200
Speaker 1: going to have to let's be careful out there and

1006
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 1: how you interpret the shutdown numbers. As you may know,

1007
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 1: President Trump and the Democrats, this is the exact question,

1008
00:55:08,040 --> 00:55:10,359
Speaker 1: and I think this will this is a good time

1009
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,360
Speaker 1: to talk about the shutdown question. And I know that

1010
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 1: some of you may be listening to this now as

1011
00:55:15,120 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 1: a standalone, quick little post either on Instagram or and

1012
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 1: sort of Who's winning the shutdown? Is it the Republican

1013
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 1: the Democrats. Here's what we do know. Everybody's losing. We

1014
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:30,279
Speaker 1: are losing the shutdown. America is losing on the shutdown,

1015
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:33,880
Speaker 1: and essentially we're mad at everybody. Okay, but here's the

1016
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 1: exact warding of this question, which is why you can

1017
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:38,799
Speaker 1: be very careful in how you report this question out.

1018
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 1: It has already been misinterpreted out there on social media.

1019
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 1: You've probably seen numbers that say, hey, more people blame

1020
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 1: Republicans for the shutdown than Democrats. Well, you can make

1021
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 1: that case because of the way NBC asked this question,

1022
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: which I think is a fair way to ask the question.

1023
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:55,200
Speaker 1: And who do you think is more to blame for

1024
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:58,680
Speaker 1: this partial shutdown? President Trump is a separate punch, demot

1025
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:01,760
Speaker 1: Republicans in Congress is a se punts or Democrats in Congress,

1026
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 1: and then people volunteered President Trump and Republicans. So if

1027
00:56:04,920 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 1: you add up all the Republican numbers. You get fifty

1028
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 1: two twenty five percent say Republicans in Congress are to blame,

1029
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: twenty four percent say President Trump is to blame, and

1030
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,440
Speaker 1: three percent volunteer did its President Trump and the Republicans

1031
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:19,280
Speaker 1: are to blame. That adds up to fifty two forty

1032
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:23,919
Speaker 1: two percent pick Democrats in Congress. So as you see here,

1033
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 1: some people you know it is. It is one of

1034
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 1: those cases where yes, you can say there are more

1035
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:34,799
Speaker 1: people blame a Republican entity. Collectively, Republican entities are taking

1036
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:38,359
Speaker 1: more blame than the Democrats. But it is this is

1037
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 1: not apples to apples, and you have to be careful this.

1038
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:43,839
Speaker 1: We didn't ask is it a two way on this?

1039
00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 1: And perhaps maybe they should have asked a two way?

1040
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 1: Do you blame Republicans more for this? Democrats? But it

1041
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,360
Speaker 1: is hard because the president is his own entity and

1042
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 1: not just this president. Every president in some ways are

1043
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 1: their own entities on this. Maybe if you asked a

1044
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 1: fourth if I added a fourth punch here, I might

1045
00:56:59,320 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 1: add per aggressives in the Democratic Party right, because there

1046
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 1: are some on the right, just like there's some on

1047
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:07,759
Speaker 1: the right. I believe Trump is the cause that left

1048
00:57:08,160 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 1: Trump is the cause of this some of the right,

1049
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:12,799
Speaker 1: I think believe progressives have pressured Schumer to do this.

1050
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 1: So if I were to add a fourth punch, it

1051
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 1: would be that it would be interesting to do that,

1052
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:21,240
Speaker 1: so you could see, is it an additional group of

1053
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 1: people that would do that, or is it within the

1054
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 1: forty two percent that blame Democrats that then would blame

1055
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 1: the progressive wing of the party for pressuring the leadership

1056
00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 1: to do this. Bottom line is at some point, you know,

1057
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 1: I do think this debate over snap benefits Democrats are

1058
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 1: on the wrong. Are they actually have the power to

1059
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 1: get snap benefits going tomorrow? Just open the government up

1060
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks and make sure snap benefits

1061
00:57:47,840 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: go through. That would be good PR two. You know,

1062
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 1: it certainly would improve prove that. So look, I think

1063
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:58,120
Speaker 1: your suggestion is a terrific one. That's exactly the way,

1064
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 1: And weirdly, the Republicans offered them this exit ramp. Now

1065
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:06,160
Speaker 1: we're getting so close to that end day. But either way,

1066
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:09,439
Speaker 1: I still think that's their best way of essentially trying

1067
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 1: to have their cake and eat it too for the

1068
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 1: short term. All right, one more question and then I'm

1069
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:19,080
Speaker 1: going to get into my Actually, I'm going to do

1070
00:58:19,160 --> 00:58:20,800
Speaker 1: two more questions and then I'm going to get into

1071
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 1: my college football rant. This comes from Forrest Listen with

1072
00:58:25,880 --> 00:58:27,960
Speaker 1: some interest to your thoughts on the dysfunction and weaponization

1073
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 1: of the Oversight Committee. Your idea of having the minority

1074
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 1: party in charge is interesting, but would that fix the

1075
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: weaponization or make it worse? Toochee instead, how about this

1076
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:37,960
Speaker 1: the committee is always fifty to fifty party split, but

1077
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 1: the members are selected by the opposing party, so Democrats

1078
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 1: would nominate a sign Republican members and vice versa.

1079
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:44,440
Speaker 2: Thoughts, Hey, that's a.

1080
00:58:46,280 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 1: This is exactly the type of ideas that I would

1081
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 1: love to see more of. We need to have. This

1082
00:58:51,840 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 1: was a terrific idea for us. I think it's a

1083
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 1: fascinating one. Right, let Republicans appoint the Democrats, Democrats appoint

1084
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:02,040
Speaker 1: the Republicans, and then they decide who the ranking and

1085
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 1: it's an even number, so you can't do party line subpoenas,

1086
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 1: so that anytime there's a subpoena, there's always a bipartisan

1087
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:12,640
Speaker 1: vote for a subpoena. I think this is a terrific idea.

1088
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:16,040
Speaker 1: This is one of those that you know when we're

1089
00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:20,080
Speaker 1: thinking of how we all want to improve trust. You know,

1090
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 1: it's sort of the trust but verifying mindset of government.

1091
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 1: I don't trust anybody I want to, but I want

1092
00:59:25,840 --> 00:59:28,040
Speaker 1: to trust people. I want to have a system where

1093
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 1: I can find out if they're trustworthy, an accountability system.

1094
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 1: This is a good one. You know, you're right. Maybe

1095
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 1: if it's always a minority party that they get pressured

1096
00:59:36,240 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 1: to be weaponizers all the time. This fix is a

1097
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 1: great one. I'm sitting here trying to poke a hole

1098
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 1: through it on my initial mind.

1099
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:48,120
Speaker 2: Look at it. I can't.

1100
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:50,640
Speaker 1: There's not a that's hard to poke a hole through

1101
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 1: that one. That's a good one. Look, I think we

1102
00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:56,080
Speaker 1: need to start putting together a list. And you know,

1103
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,520
Speaker 1: if I had the ambition to run for office myself

1104
00:59:59,560 --> 01:00:02,040
Speaker 1: and lead this sort of we need to we need

1105
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:05,560
Speaker 1: to rehab America, essentially the American democracy, this would be

1106
01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:07,600
Speaker 1: on my list of you know, you're looking for my

1107
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 1: platform and how to rehab the American democracy.

1108
01:00:10,720 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 2: This would be one of the ways, you know.

1109
01:00:12,160 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 1: Because it doesn't have to be this exact idea, but

1110
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:17,280
Speaker 1: putting it out there, here's the model. If you've got

1111
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 1: a better model, great, but right now, this is the

1112
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 1: best model of this is I'd like to see a

1113
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 1: similar version of how we dealt with the Justice Department

1114
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 1: and how.

1115
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 2: We appointed people to the Justice Department.

1116
01:00:28,720 --> 01:00:32,280
Speaker 1: All right, last question for the episode, Andrew, Hey, I

1117
01:00:32,280 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 1: grew up watching Me to Press with Tim after eight

1118
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:36,880
Speaker 1: thirty Mass every Sunday with my dad, and it has

1119
01:00:36,880 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: become one of my favorite weekly traditions. My father got

1120
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:41,200
Speaker 1: very sick about fifteen years ago and passed away three

1121
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 1: years ago. My wife and I are in the process

1122
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 1: of fortidity treatments, and as excited as I am, I

1123
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 1: am also terrified. I apologize for this deep question, but

1124
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:50,640
Speaker 1: I've often found some sense of contentment when you talk

1125
01:00:50,640 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 1: about history. How things have been bad before, how this

1126
01:00:52,840 --> 01:00:55,720
Speaker 1: is a repeat of the late nineteenth in early twentieth

1127
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 1: century of the Robert barons, or how the fever of

1128
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:01,520
Speaker 1: McCarthyism finally broke. I guess my question is, as a

1129
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:03,560
Speaker 1: father of college age kids, do you worry about the

1130
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 1: future as well? And as someone with a deeper knowledge

1131
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 1: of Washington and history than myself, what gives you hope

1132
01:01:08,880 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 1: that we find our way back? Thank you, Andrew, Well,

1133
01:01:11,360 --> 01:01:15,960
Speaker 1: it is why I make all the historical comparisons, and

1134
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 1: in fact, I you know, even today, you know, I'm

1135
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:23,640
Speaker 1: reminded thinking of Teddy Roosevelt's aggressive imperialism. You know, we

1136
01:01:23,720 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 1: lie on It's essentially Teddy Roosevelt's one of those presidents

1137
01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 1: that's above partisanship, and yet Donald Trump's a huge imperialist.

1138
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:35,360
Speaker 1: Teddy Roosevelt would be all four going after Greenland, would

1139
01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:37,160
Speaker 1: be all four trying to figure out how to have

1140
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:39,080
Speaker 1: more influence in Latin America. I don't know if he'd

1141
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 1: go about it the same way Trump's going about it.

1142
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:45,880
Speaker 1: But the point is is that I think you had

1143
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:50,440
Speaker 1: I go back to this. Every election, the voters are

1144
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:52,480
Speaker 1: telling us something, and if you don't like the outcome,

1145
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean the election's rigged. It means the voters,

1146
01:01:55,800 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 1: the voters have a deeper issue. And I think it's optimism.

1147
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: And I hope you listen to the last episode. I

1148
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:05,560
Speaker 1: have optimism for a variety of reasons. One is our history.

1149
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 1: We go through these moments and we get out of it.

1150
01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 1: The American voter, you know, sometimes doesn't act as fast

1151
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:15,120
Speaker 1: as maybe you or I want, but they eventually do

1152
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:17,240
Speaker 1: the right thing. That's why I like to quote Churchill

1153
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:19,959
Speaker 1: you know, the Americans will eventually be there after they've

1154
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 1: exhausted every other pat that prevents them from being there.

1155
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:26,000
Speaker 1: I think I butchered it, but I butcher it all

1156
01:02:26,000 --> 01:02:27,560
Speaker 1: the time to the point of everyone so all I

1157
01:02:27,640 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 1: might stumble on the exact way he says it. So

1158
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 1: there's that. The second reason I actually have some hope

1159
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 1: is what I said last week at the startup, which

1160
01:02:36,840 --> 01:02:44,000
Speaker 1: is with the the event I was at where there

1161
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:46,480
Speaker 1: was some people trying to figure out is there a movement?

1162
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 1: Can we break up the duopoly? And the person noting,

1163
01:02:50,000 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 1: you know, instead of looking at Donald Trump's elections as

1164
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:57,480
Speaker 1: this horror show, if you're on the left or worried

1165
01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 1: about where democracy is, actually should give the voters a

1166
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 1: lot more credit. If the voters arguably going back to

1167
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:06,520
Speaker 1: Obama than the election of Trump, even the election of

1168
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 1: Biden in between, they're telling us something. They want something,

1169
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:13,800
Speaker 1: They want some radical change. They want this system to

1170
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:16,600
Speaker 1: work differently, not the same. They're not looking for repair.

1171
01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 1: Barack Obama doesn't win. Hillary Clinton would have won. If

1172
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:24,000
Speaker 1: they were looking for repair. They were looking for reconstruction.

1173
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 1: To borrow a word, you know, start over, knock it

1174
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: down and rebuild Donald Trump, knock it down and rebuild.

1175
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 1: These are not folks that we're looking for, you know.

1176
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:36,160
Speaker 1: You know Biden arguably was a president we were like, oh,

1177
01:03:36,320 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 1: let's restore a little bit of order. So we can

1178
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:41,600
Speaker 1: try to go back to a more sensible way for

1179
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 1: some form of restoration. But I don't know if this

1180
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:46,960
Speaker 1: is restoration anymore. But the point is make a compelling

1181
01:03:47,040 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 1: argument for reform. And I think you have a voter's

1182
01:03:50,120 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 1: electorate that has a heavy appetite for this. So I

1183
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 1: am in a So that's why I'm long term optimistic.

1184
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 1: This is not going to be easy. The next two

1185
01:04:01,640 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 1: or three years are going to test us a lot.

1186
01:04:04,320 --> 01:04:06,640
Speaker 1: But you know, the federal courts have been beaten Trump

1187
01:04:06,720 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 1: up so much. The public's paying attention. You know, if

1188
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:12,919
Speaker 1: if this stuff were popular, then I think we'd all

1189
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:17,320
Speaker 1: feel differently. This stuff's not popular. The Constitution is still

1190
01:04:17,320 --> 01:04:20,720
Speaker 1: more popular than Donald Trump. Democracy is more popular than

1191
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 1: what he's been doing. So that's what gives me hope.

1192
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:28,640
Speaker 1: And man, you know what else gives me hope are

1193
01:04:28,680 --> 01:04:32,800
Speaker 1: these college students. I teach at USC every other semester.

1194
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:37,040
Speaker 1: I've had some, and I see it in my own kids.

1195
01:04:37,040 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 1: I see it with their friends and I get to

1196
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:42,360
Speaker 1: know them. They're they're these this next generation of college leaders.

1197
01:04:43,200 --> 01:04:48,040
Speaker 1: They're pretty sophisticated, they're they're they're totally aware of how

1198
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 1: screwed up the information ecosystem is. They haven't been brainwashed.

1199
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 1: You know, we're all worried in our generation this somehow,

1200
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 1: Oh my god, because we know people of our older

1201
01:04:57,640 --> 01:04:59,760
Speaker 1: folks who are getting kind of brainwashed by the cable

1202
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 1: news silliness or what they're seeing and on social media.

1203
01:05:03,960 --> 01:05:07,480
Speaker 1: But younger folks aren't. They're taking matters in their own hands.

1204
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:11,720
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it might be louder and messier

1205
01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: than we've been used to, but I think directionally we're

1206
01:05:15,080 --> 01:05:18,200
Speaker 1: going in the right direction. It's just gonna feel bumpy.

1207
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:22,640
Speaker 1: It's gonna be bumpy. I'm not gonna but that's that's

1208
01:05:22,680 --> 01:05:25,479
Speaker 1: my story. I'm sticking to it, Andrew. But that's why.

1209
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:29,640
Speaker 1: And and in fact, don't you know, don't let this

1210
01:05:29,880 --> 01:05:32,880
Speaker 1: discourage you from bringing another generation in.

1211
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:35,240
Speaker 2: Let it encourage you.

1212
01:05:41,640 --> 01:05:44,800
Speaker 1: Now, let's talk some college football. As I said, it's

1213
01:05:44,840 --> 01:05:48,200
Speaker 1: the first annual Todd Bowle, right, have a daughter Miami

1214
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 1: and a daughter at SM It's not an SNU. So

1215
01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:57,800
Speaker 1: we made it. You know, the whole family gathered. I

1216
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:01,400
Speaker 1: mom more SMU gear. Dad wore my Miami gear, sister

1217
01:06:01,440 --> 01:06:03,480
Speaker 1: wore her Miami Jersey son wore.

1218
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 2: His SMU gear.

1219
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:07,640
Speaker 1: So we were you know, and we actually our seats

1220
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 1: weren't two of us were together to we rotated and

1221
01:06:10,520 --> 01:06:15,480
Speaker 1: all that stuff. We ran into a few sets of

1222
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:18,040
Speaker 1: parents that had a similar situation. One kid at one school,

1223
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:21,600
Speaker 1: one kid at the other. So that was that was

1224
01:06:21,680 --> 01:06:23,840
Speaker 1: that was fun for us to learn and find and

1225
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 1: run into more more folks like that. But here we

1226
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:31,800
Speaker 1: go again with Miami. My son stormed the field. He

1227
01:06:31,880 --> 01:06:34,120
Speaker 1: told me, he warned me. He said, he's got a

1228
01:06:34,160 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 1: really close friend who's on the scout team and so

1229
01:06:36,640 --> 01:06:40,000
Speaker 1: he was giving he was he was telling me they

1230
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 1: had confidence all week that they you know, this was

1231
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:44,920
Speaker 1: an important game to SMU. And it's just a reminder,

1232
01:06:45,240 --> 01:06:48,760
Speaker 1: right they SMU was prepared to play Miami. Miami was

1233
01:06:48,760 --> 01:06:51,320
Speaker 1: not prepared to play SMU. Miami might have been prepared

1234
01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:53,120
Speaker 1: to play a generic football team, but they did not

1235
01:06:53,200 --> 01:06:55,720
Speaker 1: prepare to play SMU. They prepared to play a generic

1236
01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:59,480
Speaker 1: football team. SMU prepared to play Miami. So that's sort

1237
01:06:59,520 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 1: of coaching coaching distinction one, if you wanted to go

1238
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 1: into those two things. The second, I think situation you

1239
01:07:11,760 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 1: know here is it is obviously with Miami this is

1240
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 1: fitting a pattern. But let me rant about the game,

1241
01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:22,800
Speaker 1: the entire game, the offensive game plan, and coach Crystal

1242
01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 1: Ball's decision making. We're all about avoiding catastrophe. Everything was

1243
01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:30,440
Speaker 1: risk averse. Early on. There was a short fourth and one.

1244
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:34,200
Speaker 1: I think we were on our own forty forty one,

1245
01:07:34,680 --> 01:07:38,640
Speaker 1: but we you know, we just we chose to punt. Mistake,

1246
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:41,200
Speaker 1: you know, they got done to punt and then that

1247
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:43,160
Speaker 1: led to the interception that gave them the cheap score.

1248
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 1: I mean, they had something like negative three arts rushing

1249
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 1: at halftime, and yet we were only up ten to seven.

1250
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:50,480
Speaker 1: We couldn't score in the red zone every time we

1251
01:07:50,480 --> 01:07:53,080
Speaker 1: were It felt like every time we were there, we

1252
01:07:53,120 --> 01:07:55,480
Speaker 1: could move the ball when we wanted to. Carson Beck

1253
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:59,280
Speaker 1: had so much time it was ridiculous. That wasn't an

1254
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:02,919
Speaker 1: issue at all. But there was a lot of risk

1255
01:08:02,960 --> 01:08:05,800
Speaker 1: averse play calls. You could see it the whole time

1256
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:09,480
Speaker 1: it was checked down. Carson. Now a big issue was

1257
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:11,280
Speaker 1: his favorite receiver was injured.

1258
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:12,320
Speaker 2: CJ. Daniels.

1259
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:14,800
Speaker 1: He's the guy if you don't know the names of

1260
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:17,160
Speaker 1: the Miami players. He's the guy that had that catching

1261
01:08:17,280 --> 01:08:19,599
Speaker 1: in the Notre Dame game that became that went viral,

1262
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 1: the one handed catch where he grabbed it and went down.

1263
01:08:23,479 --> 01:08:25,519
Speaker 1: It is been Beck's favorite receiver is the one he

1264
01:08:25,560 --> 01:08:27,200
Speaker 1: trusts the most. I think it's the one he worked

1265
01:08:27,200 --> 01:08:30,040
Speaker 1: with the most all summer because even though our best

1266
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:34,880
Speaker 1: receiver is Tony, Tony is a true freshman, he was

1267
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 1: seventeen and for the Notre Dame game he just turned eighteen,

1268
01:08:37,760 --> 01:08:40,360
Speaker 1: but he was only there for fall camp. Beck was

1269
01:08:40,360 --> 01:08:43,400
Speaker 1: working with CJ. Daniels basically the second he could start throwing,

1270
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:45,880
Speaker 1: so he developed a real rapport with him. Him not

1271
01:08:45,960 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 1: being there, I could tell that was a problem. That's

1272
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 1: the receiver when he's in trouble, when he wants to

1273
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:52,280
Speaker 1: go down the field, he wants to go to first.

1274
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:54,360
Speaker 1: Even though Tony's the guy you should want to always

1275
01:08:54,360 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 1: get the ball in the hands of right. Look at

1276
01:08:56,040 --> 01:08:58,720
Speaker 1: what happened when Tony returned the punt boy when he

1277
01:08:58,760 --> 01:09:01,720
Speaker 1: didn't score. Worried we wouldn't know how to punch it in,

1278
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:04,160
Speaker 1: and sure enough, we didn't punch it in at the

1279
01:09:04,200 --> 01:09:07,240
Speaker 1: end of the half. But again a risk averse decision.

1280
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:11,040
Speaker 1: We settle for a field goal. We could have kicked

1281
01:09:11,040 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 1: a fifty four yard field goal. It was sprinkling for

1282
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:14,759
Speaker 1: about the first quarter and a half of the game,

1283
01:09:15,800 --> 01:09:18,360
Speaker 1: and so it was a wet field and a wet ball,

1284
01:09:18,640 --> 01:09:21,559
Speaker 1: and it seemed like Mario was nervous about seeing if

1285
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:23,360
Speaker 1: his kicker could hit a fifty It would have been

1286
01:09:23,360 --> 01:09:25,400
Speaker 1: about a fifty four yarder, so he took a delay

1287
01:09:25,400 --> 01:09:29,519
Speaker 1: a game and instead punted. But that's been the Whenever

1288
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 1: Mario is in doubt, he chooses the path of least risk,

1289
01:09:35,040 --> 01:09:39,320
Speaker 1: And the most egregious decision that he made was the

1290
01:09:39,400 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 1: decision with twenty five. So here's the scenario. It's a

1291
01:09:43,280 --> 01:09:46,240
Speaker 1: tie game, SMU kicks the tying field goal, Miami has

1292
01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:48,799
Speaker 1: the ball, gets the ball back with twenty five seconds

1293
01:09:48,880 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 1: left in the game. In one timeout, the SMU kicker

1294
01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 1: kicks it out of the end zone. So we're getting

1295
01:09:54,560 --> 01:10:00,439
Speaker 1: the ball at the twenty five and Mario takes any

1296
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:03,680
Speaker 1: it is. I mean, here's the guy who at the

1297
01:10:03,680 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech game last year didn't know or two years ago,

1298
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:09,760
Speaker 1: didn't take the knee and ends up in this ridiculous

1299
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:11,720
Speaker 1: situation where it costs him the game. But in case

1300
01:10:11,760 --> 01:10:15,320
Speaker 1: here the game is tied's is he worried Carson Beck's

1301
01:10:15,320 --> 01:10:18,479
Speaker 1: going to throw a pick six in twenty five seconds?

1302
01:10:18,520 --> 01:10:20,240
Speaker 1: And if that's what you're worried about, then we don't

1303
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:24,880
Speaker 1: have a championship team nor a championship quarterback. And that's

1304
01:10:25,640 --> 01:10:29,679
Speaker 1: that's what's buried underneath this. This coaching staff doesn't trust

1305
01:10:29,720 --> 01:10:33,240
Speaker 1: Carson Beck. If you're very carefully watched this.

1306
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:34,639
Speaker 2: Offense, and I do.

1307
01:10:35,439 --> 01:10:38,280
Speaker 1: Whenever the Chips were down, the play calls are much

1308
01:10:38,280 --> 01:10:42,280
Speaker 1: more conservative, their quick passes, if their passes or their

1309
01:10:42,360 --> 01:10:46,479
Speaker 1: run plays. So there's it's clear that either one or

1310
01:10:46,479 --> 01:10:48,479
Speaker 1: two things are true with the offensive coordinator, and I

1311
01:10:48,520 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 1: have I'm not giving up on Mario and I'll explain

1312
01:10:51,479 --> 01:10:53,120
Speaker 1: in a minute, but I have given up on Shannon

1313
01:10:53,160 --> 01:10:57,280
Speaker 1: Dawson because here's a reality check. With Shannon Dawson's offense,

1314
01:10:57,600 --> 01:11:00,000
Speaker 1: the more film, the more the offense is on fire,

1315
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:03,439
Speaker 1: the more our opponents are able to stop the offense

1316
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 1: and slow us down.

1317
01:11:04,880 --> 01:11:05,559
Speaker 2: Pure and simple.

1318
01:11:05,880 --> 01:11:08,559
Speaker 1: We have the better athletes, we have the bigger offensive line,

1319
01:11:08,800 --> 01:11:12,479
Speaker 1: but we're calling the same essentially. You know, we have

1320
01:11:12,520 --> 01:11:15,600
Speaker 1: about ten ten RPOs, and it feels like they we

1321
01:11:15,760 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 1: just rotate through the ten RPOs in some form or another,

1322
01:11:19,320 --> 01:11:24,160
Speaker 1: and it's the same set of ten RPOs. There's no

1323
01:11:24,479 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 1: there's whatever we ran in game two, like we added

1324
01:11:27,960 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 1: some things from game one to game two, but whatever

1325
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:31,840
Speaker 1: we started running in game two is the same thing

1326
01:11:31,840 --> 01:11:34,720
Speaker 1: we've been running in game six, games seven gaming. And

1327
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:38,439
Speaker 1: it's clear that there's no innovation on this offense. This

1328
01:11:38,520 --> 01:11:40,679
Speaker 1: is not a visionary offense. You have a head coach

1329
01:11:40,720 --> 01:11:43,360
Speaker 1: who's thinks this is the nineteen eighties, and you just

1330
01:11:43,640 --> 01:11:46,040
Speaker 1: it's all about Jimmy's and Joe's, not x's and o's.

1331
01:11:46,280 --> 01:11:48,439
Speaker 1: What do I mean by that? Jimmy's and Joe's. The

1332
01:11:48,600 --> 01:11:51,880
Speaker 1: Miami teams of the eighties and nineties were simply bigger, faster,

1333
01:11:51,960 --> 01:11:55,360
Speaker 1: and stronger and so even, and they actually still had

1334
01:11:55,360 --> 01:12:00,240
Speaker 1: some better coaching. Offensive innovation for that time period was

1335
01:12:00,840 --> 01:12:03,240
Speaker 1: a more innovative offense. When they were winning their titles,

1336
01:12:03,240 --> 01:12:05,599
Speaker 1: it was because Miami threw the ball more than anybody

1337
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:07,680
Speaker 1: else did. Miami was running a pro style offense for

1338
01:12:07,680 --> 01:12:08,760
Speaker 1: anybody in college.

1339
01:12:08,520 --> 01:12:08,960
Speaker 2: Was doing that.

1340
01:12:09,120 --> 01:12:11,760
Speaker 1: Miami ran a weird RPO during the Dennis ericson years

1341
01:12:11,800 --> 01:12:13,720
Speaker 1: and I wasn't crazy about the offense, but it was

1342
01:12:13,800 --> 01:12:16,479
Speaker 1: highly effective. Teams had a hard time stopping it. And oh,

1343
01:12:16,479 --> 01:12:18,080
Speaker 1: by the way, he won not one but two national

1344
01:12:18,080 --> 01:12:21,360
Speaker 1: titles and produced a Heisman Trophy winner in Gino Terretta

1345
01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:26,439
Speaker 1: because of how prolific that offense was. And so Miami

1346
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:29,240
Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties was on the cutting edge

1347
01:12:29,400 --> 01:12:35,000
Speaker 1: of offensive play calling in college football. Even by twenty

1348
01:12:35,000 --> 01:12:38,200
Speaker 1: oh one, there was some evidence of that that we

1349
01:12:38,200 --> 01:12:41,000
Speaker 1: had a pretty pretty you know, but it was a

1350
01:12:41,000 --> 01:12:43,920
Speaker 1: combination of Jimmy's and Joe's and we had half decent

1351
01:12:44,040 --> 01:12:48,360
Speaker 1: x's and o's. Over the last twenty five years, we've

1352
01:12:48,400 --> 01:12:50,439
Speaker 1: had a few great x's and o's, guys. Jed Fish

1353
01:12:50,479 --> 01:12:52,280
Speaker 1: was an offensive coordinary. He's now the head coach of

1354
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:54,680
Speaker 1: the University of Washington. Do some of us wish he

1355
01:12:54,720 --> 01:12:55,719
Speaker 1: were still our play caller?

1356
01:12:55,880 --> 01:12:56,200
Speaker 2: I do.

1357
01:12:56,560 --> 01:12:58,880
Speaker 1: Rhet Lashley was a terrific play caller at the University

1358
01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:00,439
Speaker 1: of Miami. Do some of his wish he were still

1359
01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:02,800
Speaker 1: our play caller and maybe head coach? Well now he's

1360
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 1: at SMU. Shannon Dawson, I think cam Ward made it

1361
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:10,280
Speaker 1: seem as if Shannon Dawson knew was an innovative play caller.

1362
01:13:10,720 --> 01:13:14,040
Speaker 1: Cam Ward was an innovator, and I realized that watching

1363
01:13:14,120 --> 01:13:17,559
Speaker 1: Carson back yesterday and Kevin Jennings, the quarterback of SMU.

1364
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:20,120
Speaker 1: Kevin Jennings was a poor man's cam Ward, except he

1365
01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:22,800
Speaker 1: was as good as I saw. Kevin Jennings had as

1366
01:13:22,800 --> 01:13:24,679
Speaker 1: good of a game as cam Ward had in any

1367
01:13:24,720 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 1: game last year with the University of Miami. He had

1368
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:30,280
Speaker 1: that side arm, He was accurate as how, he didn't

1369
01:13:30,360 --> 01:13:33,560
Speaker 1: miss it open receiver. He threw in some tight windows.

1370
01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:38,200
Speaker 1: He was terrific. And it is a reminder I think

1371
01:13:38,200 --> 01:13:40,720
Speaker 1: now when you're looking at the broad top fifty of

1372
01:13:40,760 --> 01:13:43,920
Speaker 1: college football, now, they're all spending about the same amount

1373
01:13:43,920 --> 01:13:46,280
Speaker 1: of money. Trust me, SMU spent a ton of money

1374
01:13:46,320 --> 01:13:49,799
Speaker 1: on their roster constructions. Miami, do we have better Jimmy's

1375
01:13:49,840 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 1: and Joe's right now than SMU does?

1376
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:52,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, damn right, we do.

1377
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:56,559
Speaker 1: But when you're sort of within, but when you're not

1378
01:13:56,680 --> 01:14:00,680
Speaker 1: that far apart, right, So the true different creators are

1379
01:14:00,720 --> 01:14:02,200
Speaker 1: do you have the good coach on the field, which

1380
01:14:02,240 --> 01:14:04,280
Speaker 1: is a quarterback, and do you have a good play

1381
01:14:04,320 --> 01:14:08,479
Speaker 1: caller and good on in game coaching and in game

1382
01:14:08,520 --> 01:14:10,560
Speaker 1: in sort of second half adjusted.

1383
01:14:12,080 --> 01:14:13,360
Speaker 2: SMU had the.

1384
01:14:13,240 --> 01:14:18,559
Speaker 1: Better prepared team, better game plan, better adjustments that were made.

1385
01:14:19,479 --> 01:14:22,160
Speaker 1: They also had the better quarterback. We had the better

1386
01:14:22,240 --> 01:14:24,800
Speaker 1: everything else. And it didn't matter if you have the

1387
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:27,639
Speaker 1: better quarterback than the better coach. And even if you're

1388
01:14:28,640 --> 01:14:30,559
Speaker 1: if you're if you only have forty percent of the

1389
01:14:30,560 --> 01:14:33,479
Speaker 1: athletes that the team you're you're playing does, if you

1390
01:14:33,479 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 1: have the better quarterback and coach, you're going to win

1391
01:14:35,920 --> 01:14:38,400
Speaker 1: fifty percent. You're gonna win half the time, You're going

1392
01:14:38,439 --> 01:14:40,880
Speaker 1: to overperform, and you're going to win a lot. And

1393
01:14:41,000 --> 01:14:44,280
Speaker 1: it's if you look at Miami's two losses, it is

1394
01:14:44,320 --> 01:14:47,320
Speaker 1: to Brahm of a Louisville, a better play caller and

1395
01:14:47,360 --> 01:14:50,960
Speaker 1: a better game prep prepare game coach, prepare than Mario

1396
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:54,519
Speaker 1: cristobaal and right lashly another one who just prepares for

1397
01:14:54,560 --> 01:14:56,280
Speaker 1: one game better than Mario Christball.

1398
01:14:57,880 --> 01:14:58,759
Speaker 2: That's just a fact.

1399
01:14:58,760 --> 01:15:01,439
Speaker 1: Now, why am I not ready to give up a

1400
01:15:01,520 --> 01:15:04,320
Speaker 1: Mario Christaball? Well, look, I live in the real world

1401
01:15:05,160 --> 01:15:07,040
Speaker 1: and I can tell you this, and this is my

1402
01:15:07,120 --> 01:15:09,599
Speaker 1: message to University of Miami fan football fans out there

1403
01:15:09,720 --> 01:15:13,640
Speaker 1: who are frustrated with coach Crystal Ball. I struggle with

1404
01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:16,040
Speaker 1: this question because I think this is a man who

1405
01:15:16,040 --> 01:15:18,960
Speaker 1: loves this program, loves the school, loves the kids that

1406
01:15:19,000 --> 01:15:24,360
Speaker 1: he recruits, and really cares. He does everything off the

1407
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 1: field as well, if not better than most coaches in

1408
01:15:27,240 --> 01:15:32,200
Speaker 1: the country. He's highly organized, great relationships with high school coaches.

1409
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:37,000
Speaker 1: He does all of this extraordinarily well. Again, much better

1410
01:15:37,920 --> 01:15:41,360
Speaker 1: than some of these coaches that have had better performances

1411
01:15:41,400 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 1: than him. The problem with Mario is he doesn't have

1412
01:15:47,800 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 1: He's a risk averse guy, and he hires game planners

1413
01:15:52,439 --> 01:15:57,120
Speaker 1: that fit his philosophy. And the fact is, Miami, you know,

1414
01:15:57,240 --> 01:16:00,120
Speaker 1: scared money, don't make money. That's one of my favorite expressions.

1415
01:16:00,200 --> 01:16:00,320
Speaker 2: Right.

1416
01:16:00,400 --> 01:16:02,559
Speaker 1: This is why you do have to split eights when

1417
01:16:02,560 --> 01:16:04,479
Speaker 1: you play black check, Right, no matter what, you just

1418
01:16:04,560 --> 01:16:08,720
Speaker 1: do it because it's the right way. You know, it's

1419
01:16:08,720 --> 01:16:10,639
Speaker 1: the only way you're going to make real money. It's

1420
01:16:10,640 --> 01:16:13,160
Speaker 1: only where you're actually going to have an edge when

1421
01:16:13,160 --> 01:16:14,600
Speaker 1: you're playing these things. The only way you're going to

1422
01:16:14,640 --> 01:16:16,640
Speaker 1: have an edge in college football is you got to

1423
01:16:16,640 --> 01:16:18,000
Speaker 1: be the guy that goes forward on fourth to one

1424
01:16:18,200 --> 01:16:20,240
Speaker 1: just about every time unless you're inside your own thirty.

1425
01:16:21,120 --> 01:16:23,479
Speaker 1: I would if I only if I was you know,

1426
01:16:23,520 --> 01:16:26,679
Speaker 1: maybe thirty five, but if you're north of the thirty five,

1427
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:28,880
Speaker 1: you should always be going for an on fourth to one,

1428
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:32,400
Speaker 1: especially you have an offensive line like Miami's. But he's

1429
01:16:32,439 --> 01:16:35,800
Speaker 1: extraordinarily risk averse, and he hires game planners that are

1430
01:16:35,880 --> 01:16:38,680
Speaker 1: risk averse. And we saw it. He did this to

1431
01:16:38,760 --> 01:16:41,280
Speaker 1: take a knee with twenty five seconds left. I just

1432
01:16:41,439 --> 01:16:44,080
Speaker 1: I had lost it. I did, I was in the stands.

1433
01:16:44,200 --> 01:16:46,639
Speaker 1: I lost it. I screamed. I was like, that's when

1434
01:16:46,680 --> 01:16:50,120
Speaker 1: I tweeted Mario takes years off of my life. But

1435
01:16:50,160 --> 01:16:52,599
Speaker 1: there's one other reality check that University of Miami supporters

1436
01:16:52,600 --> 01:16:57,960
Speaker 1: need to understand. In every other instance where a frustrated

1437
01:16:58,120 --> 01:17:00,719
Speaker 1: football program has gotten the coach fired, Freeze at Auburn

1438
01:17:00,840 --> 01:17:02,479
Speaker 1: is the latest. But you've got Brian Kelly, you got

1439
01:17:02,520 --> 01:17:05,439
Speaker 1: James Franklin, You've got Billy Napier.

1440
01:17:05,800 --> 01:17:06,479
Speaker 2: We can go on and on.

1441
01:17:08,240 --> 01:17:11,439
Speaker 1: None of those coaches were responsible for bringing the investment

1442
01:17:11,439 --> 01:17:15,559
Speaker 1: to the program. Mario Cristobal. You know, Manny Diaz, who

1443
01:17:15,640 --> 01:17:17,200
Speaker 1: a lot of people have noted has a better winning

1444
01:17:17,240 --> 01:17:19,439
Speaker 1: percentage as an acc coach at Duke than Mario has

1445
01:17:19,439 --> 01:17:21,639
Speaker 1: at Miami. By the way, Mario is seven to five

1446
01:17:21,640 --> 01:17:27,840
Speaker 1: in his last twelve games. His acc record is putrid.

1447
01:17:28,280 --> 01:17:32,760
Speaker 1: I mean it's Miami seasons continue to be screwed once

1448
01:17:32,800 --> 01:17:34,880
Speaker 1: they get into conference play, and I go back to

1449
01:17:35,400 --> 01:17:38,799
Speaker 1: the lack of innovation. I think the more Miami tape,

1450
01:17:39,040 --> 01:17:43,479
Speaker 1: more Miami tape that teams see and can game plan too,

1451
01:17:43,560 --> 01:17:46,160
Speaker 1: and can scout, the more likely they find ways to

1452
01:17:46,160 --> 01:17:49,680
Speaker 1: slow the offensive down and beat our defense. We're just

1453
01:17:49,960 --> 01:17:54,400
Speaker 1: too easy to prepare for as the season moves on, Right,

1454
01:17:54,680 --> 01:17:56,759
Speaker 1: we do really well the first five or six games,

1455
01:17:56,800 --> 01:17:59,559
Speaker 1: and this has been a consistent pattern until we have

1456
01:17:59,720 --> 01:18:02,240
Speaker 1: enough on tape and teams that face us more often.

1457
01:18:02,680 --> 01:18:06,639
Speaker 1: Your conference opponents all seemed to have no problems figuring

1458
01:18:06,640 --> 01:18:10,120
Speaker 1: out how to You know it is you know when

1459
01:18:10,160 --> 01:18:12,920
Speaker 1: we knew we had to get when when Manny got

1460
01:18:13,040 --> 01:18:15,320
Speaker 1: rid of the offensive coordinator had before Het Lashley, it

1461
01:18:15,400 --> 01:18:17,639
Speaker 1: was because we all could predict the game, the play

1462
01:18:17,640 --> 01:18:19,800
Speaker 1: calls before they actually happened, and you just knew them

1463
01:18:19,800 --> 01:18:23,240
Speaker 1: every time. Rahd Lashley was the first offensive coordinator Miami

1464
01:18:23,280 --> 01:18:26,479
Speaker 1: had since shed Fish. And that goes back away where

1465
01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:29,679
Speaker 1: I could where I didn't always predict the call run

1466
01:18:29,760 --> 01:18:32,320
Speaker 1: versus pass, let alone, left versus right, et cetera, et cetera.

1467
01:18:34,080 --> 01:18:37,599
Speaker 1: That's the sign of an innovative play caller. Shannon Dawson's

1468
01:18:37,600 --> 01:18:40,479
Speaker 1: not an innovative play caller. And I think that Cam

1469
01:18:40,479 --> 01:18:44,040
Speaker 1: Word's success masked a very vanilla offense. He makes it

1470
01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:47,960
Speaker 1: easy for quarterbacks to learn because there's not many decisions

1471
01:18:47,960 --> 01:18:50,839
Speaker 1: to make. But there was. There's just been no innovation.

1472
01:18:50,960 --> 01:18:51,200
Speaker 2: It is.

1473
01:18:51,720 --> 01:18:56,439
Speaker 1: Miami's offense is now super predictable, and that's why SMU

1474
01:18:56,560 --> 01:19:00,959
Speaker 1: was so prepared to essentially play prevent. They just prevented

1475
01:19:00,960 --> 01:19:04,240
Speaker 1: Miami from doing explosive plays and they just kept Miami.

1476
01:19:05,200 --> 01:19:10,080
Speaker 1: You know, Miami is struggling to score touchdowns when they're

1477
01:19:10,120 --> 01:19:12,320
Speaker 1: in the red zone. They're more likely to score a

1478
01:19:12,320 --> 01:19:14,599
Speaker 1: touchdown when they're outside the twenty than when they're inside

1479
01:19:14,640 --> 01:19:18,200
Speaker 1: the twenty. And that's just the lack of innovative play calling.

1480
01:19:18,760 --> 01:19:23,120
Speaker 1: It's very predictable. The run schemes are all up the middle,

1481
01:19:23,160 --> 01:19:25,000
Speaker 1: up the middle. And Shannon Dawson got his back up

1482
01:19:25,040 --> 01:19:27,599
Speaker 1: when he was criticized about this last week, and sure

1483
01:19:27,720 --> 01:19:29,160
Speaker 1: enough it hit again.

1484
01:19:29,560 --> 01:19:30,160
Speaker 2: Here we are.

1485
01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:35,040
Speaker 1: So look, the team was sloppy, made a lot of penalties.

1486
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:37,720
Speaker 1: By the way, these refs were atrocious to pick up

1487
01:19:37,760 --> 01:19:41,640
Speaker 1: a flag that would have essentially given Miami another shot

1488
01:19:42,120 --> 01:19:43,640
Speaker 1: at getting a first down and ending the game and

1489
01:19:43,680 --> 01:19:45,640
Speaker 1: not having to get the ball back where there was

1490
01:19:45,680 --> 01:19:48,160
Speaker 1: a holding and there was obvious passitor affairs.

1491
01:19:48,160 --> 01:19:48,720
Speaker 2: We all saw it.

1492
01:19:48,840 --> 01:19:50,840
Speaker 1: The referee that was closest to us saw it through

1493
01:19:50,880 --> 01:19:52,759
Speaker 1: the flag, and then they just picked up the flag

1494
01:19:52,960 --> 01:19:56,439
Speaker 1: with no good explanation other than these refs did not

1495
01:19:56,520 --> 01:19:59,920
Speaker 1: want to give Miami another down. It was absolutely agreed.

1496
01:20:00,479 --> 01:20:02,840
Speaker 1: And the second most egregious call was the roughing the

1497
01:20:02,840 --> 01:20:05,719
Speaker 1: passer penalty when the player clearly it was a mess

1498
01:20:05,760 --> 01:20:08,519
Speaker 1: of a whistle situation that the ref screwed up. And

1499
01:20:08,600 --> 01:20:10,800
Speaker 1: because the ref screwed up, they punished the player, and

1500
01:20:10,840 --> 01:20:13,800
Speaker 1: they punished Miami, and they caught, and they essentially gifted

1501
01:20:14,240 --> 01:20:18,800
Speaker 1: the game to SMU. Except the reason why I'm not

1502
01:20:18,840 --> 01:20:22,439
Speaker 1: going to sit here and absolve the Crystal Ball and

1503
01:20:22,479 --> 01:20:25,400
Speaker 1: the coaching staff or the or the or the or

1504
01:20:25,400 --> 01:20:29,280
Speaker 1: the team itself is they they put themselves in a

1505
01:20:29,280 --> 01:20:32,240
Speaker 1: position where where bad ref calls could make a difference,

1506
01:20:32,600 --> 01:20:34,320
Speaker 1: and they never should have been in that situation in

1507
01:20:34,360 --> 01:20:37,400
Speaker 1: the first place. So, yes, the ACEC has a problem.

1508
01:20:37,479 --> 01:20:40,959
Speaker 1: This is the worst officiating since that since the SEC's

1509
01:20:41,080 --> 01:20:44,479
Speaker 1: that Florida. Excuse me that George Auburn game, which you

1510
01:20:44,520 --> 01:20:46,360
Speaker 1: know Hugh Freeze is going to be muttering to himself

1511
01:20:46,360 --> 01:20:48,679
Speaker 1: that if it wasn't for those SEC officials, he beats

1512
01:20:48,720 --> 01:20:52,040
Speaker 1: Georgia and he's not fired today. And I think he's right.

1513
01:20:52,560 --> 01:20:56,920
Speaker 1: And these ACC college football officiating is atrocious. It's not

1514
01:20:57,320 --> 01:21:00,000
Speaker 1: just not as good as the NFL. It is unprofound.

1515
01:21:00,960 --> 01:21:03,880
Speaker 1: You see these refs out there. Some of them are pros,

1516
01:21:04,040 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 1: some of them are idiots. And we need if you're

1517
01:21:08,200 --> 01:21:11,040
Speaker 1: going to allow college betting, if you're going to professionalize

1518
01:21:11,080 --> 01:21:14,360
Speaker 1: college football, then every conference needs to spend a hell

1519
01:21:14,400 --> 01:21:17,400
Speaker 1: of a lot more unofficiating and improve the quality of officials,

1520
01:21:17,880 --> 01:21:21,320
Speaker 1: pure and simple. That was a s show of officiating.

1521
01:21:21,680 --> 01:21:25,680
Speaker 1: It was terrible and it's been terrible all year. Anybody,

1522
01:21:25,760 --> 01:21:27,400
Speaker 1: any ACC fan, and it doesn't matter.

1523
01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 2: What team here, they're not good.

1524
01:21:29,680 --> 01:21:35,040
Speaker 1: They're just bad at their job period. Okay, but this

1525
01:21:35,120 --> 01:21:37,200
Speaker 1: is no. It does not get to be the excuse.

1526
01:21:38,120 --> 01:21:42,120
Speaker 1: And I do, like I said, I am. I think

1527
01:21:42,280 --> 01:21:45,960
Speaker 1: Mario Cristabaal is the reason why money is being invested

1528
01:21:45,960 --> 01:21:49,559
Speaker 1: in the University of Miami. So he's not getting fired.

1529
01:21:51,840 --> 01:21:54,040
Speaker 1: But he needs to find a better offensive coordinator, and

1530
01:21:54,080 --> 01:21:58,440
Speaker 1: he needs to own up to his that his philosophy

1531
01:21:58,520 --> 01:22:02,200
Speaker 1: is too risk averse. You can't be in major college football.

1532
01:22:02,760 --> 01:22:04,960
Speaker 1: You don't have you will never have the Jimmies and

1533
01:22:05,040 --> 01:22:10,360
Speaker 1: Joe's to play that kind of of of coaching schemes anymore.

1534
01:22:11,920 --> 01:22:16,599
Speaker 1: And there's a reason Miami sucks in November. The more

1535
01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:21,200
Speaker 1: film that a team has on Miami, the easier time

1536
01:22:21,240 --> 01:22:25,240
Speaker 1: they have to game plan. It's obvious. It's the obvious answer.

1537
01:22:25,320 --> 01:22:28,040
Speaker 1: This is what this is me do an Okham's raiser here.

1538
01:22:28,800 --> 01:22:31,559
Speaker 1: I'm not a football coach. I've done my level of

1539
01:22:31,600 --> 01:22:34,400
Speaker 1: pee week coaching and kid coaching. I'm not going to

1540
01:22:34,439 --> 01:22:37,559
Speaker 1: sit here and say I'm an expert at this. But

1541
01:22:37,720 --> 01:22:42,880
Speaker 1: when you know, you know, and I'm and I'm well

1542
01:22:42,920 --> 01:22:46,679
Speaker 1: aware when you know you know, and I'm well aware

1543
01:22:47,200 --> 01:22:50,679
Speaker 1: that this is a very predictable offense. Again, I watch

1544
01:22:50,720 --> 01:22:54,320
Speaker 1: a ton of it. So what needs to happen is

1545
01:22:54,560 --> 01:22:56,360
Speaker 1: there needs to be a new offensive. We're gonna have

1546
01:22:56,400 --> 01:23:00,439
Speaker 1: to have a new offense. I do worry that you know,

1547
01:23:00,479 --> 01:23:03,960
Speaker 1: you get you know over time. You know, Mark, If

1548
01:23:04,000 --> 01:23:05,680
Speaker 1: you look at the history of college football in the

1549
01:23:05,680 --> 01:23:08,720
Speaker 1: twenty first century, There's only been three coaches who were

1550
01:23:08,760 --> 01:23:12,960
Speaker 1: tenured longer than five years and won their first national title.

1551
01:23:14,040 --> 01:23:17,000
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh won it in his eighth year, Dabo Swiney

1552
01:23:17,040 --> 01:23:19,320
Speaker 1: won it in his eighth year, and Mac Brown won

1553
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:22,360
Speaker 1: it in his seventh year. Every other first time national

1554
01:23:22,479 --> 01:23:25,360
Speaker 1: championship coach in the twenty first century all wonted in

1555
01:23:25,400 --> 01:23:30,560
Speaker 1: either year four or less. Mario Christo Baal this was

1556
01:23:30,640 --> 01:23:34,559
Speaker 1: year four. Next year's year five. He basically he's not

1557
01:23:34,560 --> 01:23:36,760
Speaker 1: in the hot seat this year, but he's now in

1558
01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:40,320
Speaker 1: the hot seat next year. If there's not a playoff

1559
01:23:40,400 --> 01:23:42,800
Speaker 1: run next year, it's going to be time to move on.

1560
01:23:43,280 --> 01:23:46,240
Speaker 1: Because what you worry about is that this becomes a virus, right,

1561
01:23:46,280 --> 01:23:50,240
Speaker 1: which players are going, oh yeah, christa ball never wins.

1562
01:23:50,280 --> 01:23:52,680
Speaker 1: It just sort of starts to feed on itself, and

1563
01:23:52,720 --> 01:23:54,840
Speaker 1: it will cost you that one five star recruit that

1564
01:23:54,880 --> 01:23:57,040
Speaker 1: you really need. You'll still get the great four star

1565
01:23:57,120 --> 01:24:01,880
Speaker 1: recruits and you still get to be maybe as good

1566
01:24:01,920 --> 01:24:05,519
Speaker 1: as Penn State, but Penn State never could break through.

1567
01:24:06,120 --> 01:24:06,320
Speaker 2: Right.

1568
01:24:06,880 --> 01:24:08,760
Speaker 1: You know, the joke is Crystal Ball is Spanish for

1569
01:24:08,840 --> 01:24:13,560
Speaker 1: James Franklin, and that that's one of the running jokes

1570
01:24:13,320 --> 01:24:18,799
Speaker 1: in Miami. Twitter but there's that's what he has to avoid.

1571
01:24:18,960 --> 01:24:21,639
Speaker 1: He's and then you know, Oregon fans love to troll

1572
01:24:21,680 --> 01:24:24,839
Speaker 1: Miami fans about this, right they they think they upgraded

1573
01:24:24,880 --> 01:24:28,320
Speaker 1: when they lost Mario for Dan Lanning. They certainly have

1574
01:24:28,439 --> 01:24:33,240
Speaker 1: better records to show for it. But I will say this,

1575
01:24:33,720 --> 01:24:35,439
Speaker 1: Mario does have a small test for the rest of

1576
01:24:35,439 --> 01:24:39,240
Speaker 1: the season. I am.

1577
01:24:39,600 --> 01:24:41,280
Speaker 2: I assume Miami is eight and four nine.

1578
01:24:41,400 --> 01:24:43,639
Speaker 1: They're going to lose one or two more games, because

1579
01:24:43,680 --> 01:24:46,240
Speaker 1: now that it's over, we know two lost teams don't

1580
01:24:46,320 --> 01:24:47,760
Speaker 1: acc teams aren't going to make it.

1581
01:24:48,040 --> 01:24:49,559
Speaker 2: Miami was example at a.

1582
01:24:49,800 --> 01:24:51,880
Speaker 1: Right if last year's Miami team didn't get in the

1583
01:24:51,880 --> 01:24:54,479
Speaker 1: playoff as a tenant to team, this one isn't. Last

1584
01:24:54,520 --> 01:24:57,599
Speaker 1: year's had the best offense in the country and didn't

1585
01:24:57,600 --> 01:24:59,519
Speaker 1: get in this This team's not going to get in

1586
01:24:59,600 --> 01:25:04,120
Speaker 1: as as a tenant two at large BED seven thousand

1587
01:25:04,200 --> 01:25:05,479
Speaker 1: things have to happen for them to get in the

1588
01:25:05,520 --> 01:25:10,000
Speaker 1: a SEC Championship game. While it's possible, it's it's not probable.

1589
01:25:11,840 --> 01:25:13,800
Speaker 1: We're going to find out what kind of what kind

1590
01:25:13,840 --> 01:25:16,080
Speaker 1: of motivator crystal Ball is, what kind of coach he is,

1591
01:25:16,280 --> 01:25:21,840
Speaker 1: and whether these coordinators can be better game planners with

1592
01:25:21,960 --> 01:25:24,280
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. If we can go ten

1593
01:25:24,360 --> 01:25:27,000
Speaker 1: and two, then I think there there there is some

1594
01:25:27,120 --> 01:25:29,639
Speaker 1: hope for next year. This is nine, three, eight and four,

1595
01:25:29,720 --> 01:25:33,200
Speaker 1: which means say a loss to pitt lost to Virginia

1596
01:25:33,320 --> 01:25:38,280
Speaker 1: Tech on the road, something like that, then I think,

1597
01:25:39,120 --> 01:25:42,000
Speaker 1: you know, the hot seat begins immediately. Crystal Ball will

1598
01:25:42,040 --> 01:25:46,160
Speaker 1: get one more year for sure, because again he's responsible

1599
01:25:46,240 --> 01:25:49,920
Speaker 1: for this money. Right if they kept Mannidaz, the investment

1600
01:25:49,960 --> 01:25:51,560
Speaker 1: that came in wasn't going to be there. There was

1601
01:25:51,560 --> 01:25:53,439
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of people who love Mario in the

1602
01:25:53,479 --> 01:25:57,200
Speaker 1: Miami Cuban community, in the Miami business community, who decided

1603
01:25:57,200 --> 01:25:58,880
Speaker 1: they said they're going to give Mario every resource he

1604
01:25:58,920 --> 01:26:01,599
Speaker 1: can to succeed at Miami. So he has every resource

1605
01:26:01,640 --> 01:26:05,640
Speaker 1: he has. The only way Mario goes is if the

1606
01:26:05,680 --> 01:26:08,320
Speaker 1: people spending the money in the program decide Mario should go.

1607
01:26:09,880 --> 01:26:13,280
Speaker 1: And that is why you will not see any movement

1608
01:26:13,880 --> 01:26:18,840
Speaker 1: this year on that front. Maybe next year, but certainly.

1609
01:26:18,680 --> 01:26:19,280
Speaker 2: Not this year.

1610
01:26:21,439 --> 01:26:23,479
Speaker 1: But I'll be honest, if I was Mario's boss and

1611
01:26:23,560 --> 01:26:25,760
Speaker 1: he does not report the athletic director, he reports to

1612
01:26:26,479 --> 01:26:29,880
Speaker 1: the people that write the checks, I would struggle with

1613
01:26:29,960 --> 01:26:31,240
Speaker 1: this because the man loves the university.

1614
01:26:31,280 --> 01:26:31,679
Speaker 2: He's done.

1615
01:26:32,080 --> 01:26:35,599
Speaker 1: He's rebuilt every other part of the program that needed rebuilding.

1616
01:26:37,000 --> 01:26:37,720
Speaker 2: The problem is his.

1617
01:26:37,760 --> 01:26:41,160
Speaker 1: Game day coaching and his game day plaguing game planning.

1618
01:26:42,080 --> 01:26:44,160
Speaker 1: If he needs to come up with a better plan

1619
01:26:45,160 --> 01:26:48,320
Speaker 1: and a better result. Look, he improved coordinators on the

1620
01:26:48,400 --> 01:26:51,640
Speaker 1: defensive side, so he deserves a shot at improving for

1621
01:26:51,680 --> 01:26:53,160
Speaker 1: a coordinator on the offensive side.

1622
01:26:58,439 --> 01:27:00,519
Speaker 2: But he's probably got one year, all right.

1623
01:27:02,280 --> 01:27:04,080
Speaker 1: I didn't watch a lot of other college football. I

1624
01:27:04,320 --> 01:27:07,720
Speaker 1: went from that Drowning my sorrows and terrific barbecue at

1625
01:27:08,080 --> 01:27:11,920
Speaker 1: ten fifty Barbecue. That place was amazing that we went

1626
01:27:12,000 --> 01:27:14,760
Speaker 1: to in Dallas. So yeah, I wanted to give him

1627
01:27:14,760 --> 01:27:17,679
Speaker 1: a shout out. My daughter thinks the only reason Miami

1628
01:27:17,720 --> 01:27:20,280
Speaker 1: lost is that the hotel we stayed at we actually

1629
01:27:20,280 --> 01:27:24,000
Speaker 1: stayed on the thirteenth floor. They actually had a thirteenth floor.

1630
01:27:24,479 --> 01:27:26,200
Speaker 1: I didn't think about it, but the minute she got

1631
01:27:26,200 --> 01:27:27,640
Speaker 1: into town, she goes, Dad, why are we staying on

1632
01:27:27,640 --> 01:27:28,160
Speaker 1: the thirteenth floor?

1633
01:27:28,240 --> 01:27:28,920
Speaker 2: This is terrible luck.

1634
01:27:29,160 --> 01:27:32,160
Speaker 1: We're in real trouble on Halloween night, we're on thirteenth floor.

1635
01:27:32,200 --> 01:27:32,880
Speaker 2: What are you thinking.

1636
01:27:33,800 --> 01:27:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm not a very superstitious guy. I'm not even a

1637
01:27:35,880 --> 01:27:40,360
Speaker 1: little stitious, and neither's my wife or my son, but

1638
01:27:40,479 --> 01:27:42,640
Speaker 1: my daughter was. And now let's just say, after this

1639
01:27:42,800 --> 01:27:46,560
Speaker 1: debacle of a weekend, she will be that person that

1640
01:27:46,600 --> 01:27:48,799
Speaker 1: if she gets to sign the thirteenth Florida Hotel, she'll.

1641
01:27:48,600 --> 01:27:50,280
Speaker 2: Say, you know what, I'd like to change rooms.

1642
01:27:51,840 --> 01:27:55,519
Speaker 1: And given how badly Miami played this weekend and totally destroying,

1643
01:27:56,080 --> 01:27:59,920
Speaker 1: you know, perhaps getting in the way of Miami's homecoming

1644
01:28:00,040 --> 01:28:02,120
Speaker 1: plans next week. I am going to the Miami game

1645
01:28:02,160 --> 01:28:04,680
Speaker 1: next week. It is homecoming. My daughter's really involved in it.

1646
01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:06,680
Speaker 1: I can't wait to cheer her on on that she

1647
01:28:06,760 --> 01:28:08,599
Speaker 1: gets to do the smoke. I'm very excited.

1648
01:28:11,000 --> 01:28:14,760
Speaker 2: You know, I will say this. I know this, She's

1649
01:28:14,840 --> 01:28:15,959
Speaker 2: now more than a little.

1650
01:28:15,760 --> 01:28:18,519
Speaker 1: Stitious when it comes to the third number thirteen and

1651
01:28:18,600 --> 01:28:21,080
Speaker 1: staying in a hotel with the thirteenth floor. All right,

1652
01:28:21,120 --> 01:28:23,000
Speaker 1: So with that, I'd love for you to share stories

1653
01:28:23,000 --> 01:28:25,559
Speaker 1: about whether you would have stayed if you'd have been

1654
01:28:25,560 --> 01:28:28,240
Speaker 1: assigned a room on floor thirteen and they actually had

1655
01:28:28,280 --> 01:28:30,960
Speaker 1: a thirteenth floor. The Double Tree in Dallas actually allows

1656
01:28:31,000 --> 01:28:32,800
Speaker 1: for third. You know, a lot of hotels go from

1657
01:28:32,840 --> 01:28:35,880
Speaker 1: twelve to fourteen. They don't even have the thirteen so

1658
01:28:35,960 --> 01:28:38,120
Speaker 1: I'll admit I have not been on a thirteenth floor.

1659
01:28:38,320 --> 01:28:41,800
Speaker 1: Would you have changed rooms? Share with that with me

1660
01:28:41,880 --> 01:28:43,800
Speaker 1: when you get a chance. And with that, I will

1661
01:28:43,840 --> 01:28:47,360
Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours for our live election stream.

1662
01:28:47,640 --> 01:28:51,960
Speaker 1: It'll start two six thirty pm Eastern Time on Tuesday.

1663
01:28:52,439 --> 01:28:53,000
Speaker 2: I'll see you then