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Speaker 2: It's not every day we sit down with a presidential candidate,
Speaker 2: and I'm glad to say that Asa Hutchinson is back
Speaker 2: with us, of course, the former governor of Arkansas and
Speaker 2: Republican presidential candidate. Just what almost exactly a week I
Speaker 2: guess it is off the debate stage in Milwaukee. Thank
Speaker 2: you for coming back in. It's good to see you, sir.
Speaker 3: Well, it's good to be here, and you're right, what
Speaker 3: incredible experience in Milwaukee on the debate stage. I've got
Speaker 3: very pleased with how we got there, but also the
Speaker 3: message that we had. I think we showcased that I'm
Speaker 3: ready to be president of the United States.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you more about that, but I'd
Speaker 2: love your input on the conversation. We were just having. You
Speaker 2: know what it's like to run a state, and to
Speaker 2: run a state that's dealing with a natural disaster. We
Speaker 2: remember the flooding in Arkansas in twenty nineteen, for instance.
Speaker 2: I realize that's probably still pretty near in your thought,
Speaker 2: in your memory. We're watching Rhonda Santis, one of your
Speaker 2: rivals on the campaign trail, deal with this now in Florida,
Speaker 2: and apparently it's going to become Brian Kemp's problem now
Speaker 2: rolling into Georgia. The job of a governor in a
Speaker 2: time like this, this really defines urgency in that position,
Speaker 2: doesn't it.
Speaker 3: Well, it does, and there's nothing more important than first
Speaker 3: of all, a governor has to be there during times
Speaker 3: of crisis. Secondly, you have to communicate effectively. People are
Speaker 3: looking to you for leadership, for guidance, they trust you.
Speaker 3: And then thirdly it's a response capability, which is really
Speaker 3: managing and how you've been prepared for that all along.
Speaker 3: And so this is what governors do. I had to
Speaker 3: do it as governor during a five hundred year record flood.
Speaker 3: Governor DeSantis is going through it. Of course, they have
Speaker 3: the hurricanes down there on an annual base.
Speaker 2: That's so they're very ready for this, very prepared. It's
Speaker 2: an opportunity. Though I supposed to show leadership. Did he
Speaker 2: do the right thing by coming off the campaign trail? Oh,
Speaker 2: of course he did.
Speaker 3: Absolutely. There was any question about that. You have to
Speaker 3: be there. And again you contrast that, if I might
Speaker 3: with President Biden, who's delayed in going to Hawaii. I
Speaker 3: mean the being there taking the natural disasters very seriously.
Speaker 3: This is when people are hurting, and he did the
Speaker 3: right thing by going back to Florida.
Speaker 2: You thought that Joe Biden should have gone earlier to Hawaii.
Speaker 2: How would you have handled that if you had been president.
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, your comments to the nation immediately
Speaker 3: afterwards would be very important, sympathetic and showing that you're
Speaker 3: on top of it and not a more casual no
Speaker 3: comment type. And then secondly, you've got to be there
Speaker 3: very quickly, you know. And I don't want to be
Speaker 3: overly critical, but it just illustrates that, whether you're the
Speaker 3: president or whether you're a governor, during times of crisis,
Speaker 3: you have to be there. You have to help comfort
Speaker 3: and guide the recovery.
Speaker 2: There's something about and mayors for that matter. As somebody
Speaker 2: who covers politics, governors and mayors have just a different
Speaker 2: reality than for instance, members of Congress, the House, or
Speaker 2: the Senate, because you have to deal with reality and
Speaker 2: you have to deal with everyone. Do you wish you
Speaker 2: had more of an opportunity to tell that story. You're
Speaker 2: not the only governor on the stage here. That makes
Speaker 2: you different from those who have never been an executive.
Speaker 4: Oh.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: I think governors are in are set apart. They know
Speaker 3: how to lead, they're held accountable, and I would like
Speaker 3: to have told more of what we've done in Arkansas,
Speaker 3: particularly in contrast to Governor DeSantis, who talked about how
Speaker 3: they managed through the pandemic. I was waiting for the
Speaker 3: opportunity to talk about how we did it in Arkansas.
Speaker 3: And I think there will be another occasion at the
Speaker 3: Reagan Library because I think those questions will come up again.
Speaker 3: But know my record of cutting taxes, creating a surplus,
Speaker 3: creating jobs in Arkansas, and balancing a budget, they're very
Speaker 3: relevant to be president of the United States. The way
Speaker 3: I guided through the pandemic, and making sure our businesses
Speaker 3: had an opportunity to survive, not sheltering in place as
Speaker 3: many of the other states did, and keeping our schools
Speaker 3: open after those first couple of months for in classroom instructions.
Speaker 3: These are things that set my leadership apart. I look
Speaker 3: forward to the opportunity to talk about those more.
Speaker 2: Do you expect to be on the debate stage at
Speaker 2: the Library.
Speaker 3: Oh absolutely. You know, I've surprised everybody every step of
Speaker 3: the way. Nobody thought I'd be on the first debate stage,
Speaker 3: and we made it thanks to a lot of support
Speaker 3: from voters out there that wanted to make sure I
Speaker 3: was there. And now a lot of people don't think
Speaker 3: I'll be on the second debate stage.
Speaker 2: I will be there.
Speaker 3: I will be there because we have a growing level
Speaker 3: of support. My message continues to be important.
Speaker 2: Interesting when we talk about the message what you just
Speaker 2: said about being governor, there are questions about whether that's
Speaker 2: resonating with Republicans today in a way that it might
Speaker 2: have ten or twenty years ago. That it's about red meat,
Speaker 2: it's about conspiracies, it's about Trump. You saw Vivik Ramaswami
Speaker 2: come flying off the stage because of some of the
Speaker 2: more outlandish things he said. This is someone with no
Speaker 2: electoral experience. Do you worry that you're talking to a
Speaker 2: different crowd now than you were earlier in your career.
Speaker 3: Well, if you want pure entertainment, there's others besides me
Speaker 3: to support. And you know, I suppose it started to
Speaker 3: a certain extent with Donald Trump that came out of
Speaker 3: the entertainment world straight into the presidency the United States,
Speaker 3: and now the impression is that anybody can do that.
Speaker 3: And you know, you even think about Ronald Reagan. He
Speaker 3: was an actor, but he was also a governor first
Speaker 3: and then he became president. George W. Bush, you know,
Speaker 3: was then became president.
Speaker 2: And so.
Speaker 3: I think they still have a high regard for governors.
Speaker 3: I think that does make a difference. But it's more
Speaker 3: than that. It's more than being a governor. They want
Speaker 3: to see somebody that will fight in Washington, somebody that
Speaker 3: will be aggressive in making sure that we tackle the
Speaker 3: administrative state, reduced regulatory burdens. And so that's on me
Speaker 3: to make sure I showcased my record, but also what
Speaker 3: I will do.
Speaker 2: There's another governor on that stage who is known for
Speaker 2: going after Donald Trump, and that's Chris CHRISTI. Is there
Speaker 2: room for both of you? Well, I think so.
Speaker 3: Whenever you look at eight candidates on that stage and
Speaker 3: only two of us had a non Trump message, Yes,
Speaker 3: I probably was even more clear when I said I
Speaker 3: would not support somebody who was convicted of a fellow.
Speaker 2: And at one point you were the only candidate to
Speaker 2: not raise a hand Chris Christy had a little confusion there.
Speaker 2: I think we know what he meant. But what does
Speaker 2: that tell us about that stage when only two of
Speaker 2: you would respond.
Speaker 3: That way, Well, it tells you there's a fear factor
Speaker 3: as to offending Donald Trump. And if you're running against him,
Speaker 3: don't worry about it, get over it. That's what we're
Speaker 3: doing is and that why you're running it exactly. And
Speaker 3: so I'm surprised by that. But you know, in reference
Speaker 3: to Chris Christy, you know, in some ways we're in
Speaker 3: the same lane. We all bring something different and we
Speaker 3: bring it in different ways. So it's what kind of
Speaker 3: leader do you want for our country? And I'll present
Speaker 3: my case, we'll see what the voter how they respond to.
Speaker 2: We're spending time with former Governor Asa Hutchinson, of course
Speaker 2: Republican presidential candidate. I'd like to ask you about the
Speaker 2: fourteenth Amendment, because you've been talking about this and I'm
Speaker 2: compelled by this idea that the president, in your former president,
Speaker 2: in your eyes, may be unfit for office because of
Speaker 2: the legal challenges that he's facing now four times indicted.
Speaker 2: If it comes to it, will you sue invoking the
Speaker 2: fourteenth amendments to get him out of this race.
Speaker 3: No, I don't expect that to happen. There will be
Speaker 3: plenty of others that will raise that issue. So I
Speaker 3: don't need to and I would not want to.
Speaker 5: But let me.
Speaker 2: Describe it this way.
Speaker 3: It's a constitutional requirement for eligibility. For example, right now,
Speaker 3: you have to be thirty five to run for president
Speaker 3: of the United States. A secretary of state will not
Speaker 3: put somebody on the ballot who's thirty four or thirty three.
Speaker 3: They make that determination. This is a constitutional requirement. They
Speaker 3: have to review as well and make a determination whether
Speaker 3: they violate the fourteenth Amendment. I suspect that there will
Speaker 3: be one or more secretaries of States that will make
Speaker 3: a determination that he is ineligible because of the fourteenth Amendment,
Speaker 3: which says if you're a federal official, he can't commit
Speaker 3: acts of insurrection or you're disqualified from being on the ballot.
Speaker 3: And if a secretary of State says no, he is eligible,
Speaker 3: then you can expect somebody to sue saying they were
Speaker 3: wrong in making that determination they're ineligible and take it
Speaker 3: to court. And so the bottom line is this would
Speaker 3: be the Democrats dream scenario that we nominate somebody at
Speaker 3: the convention that will later be determined by the course
Speaker 3: to be ineligible to hold office.
Speaker 2: Are you talking to your fellow candidates about this? Might
Speaker 2: there be I don't want to say class action, but
Speaker 2: a cooperation in moving this issue forward. I don't think
Speaker 2: it's necessary.
Speaker 3: This is going to play out with the various secretary
Speaker 3: of States and different citizens that want to raise this
Speaker 3: issue in court. So you know, I made my case.
Speaker 3: I think it's important for the public Republican voters to
Speaker 3: understand this risk and it should be a factor in
Speaker 3: determine who's going to be our nominee. That's why I
Speaker 3: raised in the debate. I was the only one that
Speaker 3: talked about this. And you know, you talk about he
Speaker 3: can't win in November, he can't bring in independence, but
Speaker 3: also you've got this issue of actually being disqualified under
Speaker 3: the fourteenth Amendment as another risk factor.
Speaker 2: Lastly, when it talks when we talk about winning over independence,
Speaker 2: is the issue the economy that we'll get that done?
Speaker 2: Or is it something else we talk about so much
Speaker 2: around here, But when we go back to it's the economy, stupid?
Speaker 2: Is that actually what we'll decide this race?
Speaker 3: Well, the economy is the number one issue it is,
Speaker 3: and independence voters trust Republicans to handle the economy more
Speaker 3: so than Democrats, and so that's why it's going to
Speaker 3: be a key political issue. But also when you ask
Speaker 3: about bringing in independence, is more than just the economy.
Speaker 3: It's also who's going to listen, who's going to care,
Speaker 3: who's going to take us in a rational way into
Speaker 3: the future and lead our country. And so those are
Speaker 3: some intangible qualities that independence will look at as well.
Speaker 3: And they don't want a strident extremist is that leads
Speaker 3: or somebody who's going to create chaos every day. They
Speaker 3: want someone that will stand for their values and represent
Speaker 3: the home, but also set an example for young people
Speaker 3: and kind of leadership we need in our country.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, we like to talk policy around here,
Speaker 2: and you're always welcome at the table. It's great to
Speaker 2: have you back, Governor. We'll be looking for you at
Speaker 2: the Reagan Library next month. We'll see you there. Thank you, Governor.
Speaker 2: Asa Hutchinson. Of course, Republican presidential candidate in a conversation
Speaker 2: you won't hear anywhere else. Today.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound On podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: Pretty wild headlines coming from Ukraine. If you're looking at
Speaker 2: the terminal, you know what I'm talking about. Russia hit
Speaker 2: by drone wave as Kiev battles biggest blitz in months,
Speaker 2: Ukraine getting two hundred and fifty million more in arms
Speaker 2: from stock that of course from the US. And then
Speaker 2: a wild card here today, according to the White House,
Speaker 2: Russia and North Korea working on an arms deal, something
Speaker 2: they describe as actively advancing. We have a lot to
Speaker 2: talk about with Kurt Volker. I'm delighted to say that
Speaker 2: he's with us now, the former US Special Representative for Ukraine,
Speaker 2: former US Ambassador to NATO. Mister ambassador, welcome back to Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: I'd like to dip into all of these with you,
Speaker 2: but immediately, the situation in Ukraine involving the counter offensive.
Speaker 2: The narrative most recently has been that it's falling short
Speaker 2: of goals. Now we're seeing Ukraine reach deeper into Russia
Speaker 2: with what's described as the biggest drone wave that we
Speaker 2: have seen in months. How do you see the counter offensive?
Speaker 2: How would you describe the stage that it's at now?
Speaker 6: Right? Well, first go if I think it's important to
Speaker 6: understand what Ukrainians are trying to do because a lot
Speaker 6: of people expected Ukraine to break through these defensive lines
Speaker 6: and take a lot of terror very quickly, and so
Speaker 6: they were very disappointed as you go through July and
Speaker 6: August and they didn't get that far. But what Ukrainians
Speaker 6: were trying to do was to take out Russian logistical
Speaker 6: supply lines, the way that the Russians provide fuel and
Speaker 6: ammunition and food and transportation for their forces that are deployed.
Speaker 6: These are very long supply lines and they've done a
Speaker 6: very good job at that. They've also been trying to
Speaker 6: protect their people as they try to clear minefields, and
Speaker 6: that's a painstaking and slow process. They're not willing to
Speaker 6: throw people up as cannon fodder the way the Russians do.
Speaker 6: They're being much more methodical, so they're doing that. And
Speaker 6: then the third thing is they are making the Russian
Speaker 6: people and the Russian military aware that this is a
Speaker 6: real war. It's not this special military operation and denocification
Speaker 6: that Putin likes to tell the Russian people it's about.
Speaker 6: It is really a conflict with their neighboring country. And
Speaker 6: they're sending drones to airfield, They're sending drone to Moscow.
Speaker 6: They knocked out one of Russia's naval ships at the
Speaker 6: port of Novo Usirsk. They hid an oil tanker as well,
Speaker 6: disabling that vessel. So they're showing the Russians that they
Speaker 6: are not going away, and that is piling on to
Speaker 6: the political turmoil or churn that's going on inside Russia anyway.
Speaker 2: Were you concerned about the counter offensive where we had
Speaker 2: reports that US intelligence was growing skeptical that this would
Speaker 2: be a success, that it was in fact falling short
Speaker 2: of goals, And that has already begun to impact the
Speaker 2: debate over funding here in Washington. This is a capital
Speaker 2: that was already in the throes of debate, and Republicans
Speaker 2: don't want to back a loser here. It seems to
Speaker 2: be as simple as that. How do you see it?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, I just wrote a piece today. It's
Speaker 6: at dot org and it's basically saying that. Remember, we
Speaker 6: declared independence July fourth of seventeen seventy six, and in
Speaker 6: the winter of seventeen seventy seven seventy eight, George Washington
Speaker 6: was in Valley Forge with a ragtag army, cold weather,
Speaker 6: and the British occupied Philadelphia and New York. So we
Speaker 6: can't look at the Ukrainians there eighteen months after this
Speaker 6: conflict started and just write them off. They are determined,
Speaker 6: they are have an ironclad will, They have outside helped
Speaker 6: the way that we did, and the Russians actually have
Speaker 6: very long supply lines in a very difficult time here.
Speaker 6: So I think it is way too early to write
Speaker 6: off the Ukrainians here.
Speaker 2: Whenever we see Kiev move into Russia, though, it's answered
Speaker 2: by overwhelming strikes, cruise missiles into apartment buildings. We saw
Speaker 2: two people killed and what was the heaviest air assault
Speaker 2: on Kiev since spring? Ambassador, How worried are you that
Speaker 2: there's more of that in the near term?
Speaker 6: Well, there will be more of that, and the reason
Speaker 6: for that it's important people will understand the Russians can't
Speaker 6: take more territory, they can't advance. Their army is incapable
Speaker 6: of doing that. So they're doing what they can do,
Speaker 6: which is just throw bombs and missiles at cities and
Speaker 6: kill civilians. It's completely random. The Ukrainians have improved air
Speaker 6: defenses now not perfect, but improved, so they're able to
Speaker 6: take down the majority of the drones and the missiles
Speaker 6: and things that are fired at them, but some do
Speaker 6: get through. And the case today where these people were killed,
Speaker 6: I believe it was because of falling debris. So they
Speaker 6: actually took out the missile that was coming, but then
Speaker 6: the debris fell and killed a couple of people as
Speaker 6: it fell.
Speaker 2: There's a lot more to talk about here when it
Speaker 2: comes to funding. As I mentioned a couple of moments ago,
Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty million dollars more in weapons from
Speaker 2: US stockpiles. But there's a supplemental budget request that's coming
Speaker 2: from this White House. Everybody knows that we're talking about
Speaker 2: a possible government shut down as soon as the end
Speaker 2: of next month. Ambassador, how much of what's happening on
Speaker 2: the ground in Ukraine specifically, but I suppose Russia as well,
Speaker 2: will impact the outcome of that debate here.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think if the Ukrainians have great success on
Speaker 6: the ground, that will obviously encourage people to go forward
Speaker 6: with it, but I think the votes are there regardless,
Speaker 6: both in the Senate and the House. I think the
Speaker 6: votes are there to approve it. What I'm disappointed by
Speaker 6: is that the Administration is not out there making a
Speaker 6: stronger case as to why this is an America's interest.
Speaker 6: Everyone looks at it as help for Ukraine. They don't
Speaker 6: look at it as it's in our interest to see
Speaker 6: the Russian imperialism and authoritarianism in Europe is defeated so
Speaker 6: that we don't actually have to end up defending some
Speaker 6: of our NATO elements. Giving the Ukrainians the weapons and
Speaker 6: letting them fight is a very pragmatic way to deal
Speaker 6: with it, and it's been very cost effective. It's been
Speaker 6: about three and a half percent of one year's defense budget,
Speaker 6: and we've seen we see one of our major adversaries
Speaker 6: now tearing itself apart, you know, with the shooting planes
Speaker 6: out of a sky I over Moscow with progosion on board.
Speaker 6: So this is actually a pretty good bargain for the
Speaker 6: American people, and I wish the White House would be
Speaker 6: making that case. I also think that for both parties,
Speaker 6: for the Republicans and the Democrats, it would be smart
Speaker 6: to pass a big spending bill for Ukraine this year
Speaker 6: and get it out of the way. I don't think
Speaker 6: it's responsible or in anyone's interest to be debating this
Speaker 6: again and having multiple votes next year during the presidential election.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, there's a lot there. I could only imagine
Speaker 2: your thought if you were watching or listening to the
Speaker 2: Republican presidential debate. I guess it was just about a
Speaker 2: week ago now, the number of candidates on that stage
Speaker 2: suggesting that we need to not only take another look
Speaker 2: at this, but that we should not be supporting a
Speaker 2: war effort in Ukraine when there are people suffering here
Speaker 2: in the US. We're going to hear a lot more
Speaker 2: about this on the trail, aren't we.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we are, we are, and I think people have
Speaker 6: to see through these false choices. Of Course, we have
Speaker 6: to take care of the southern border. Of course, we
Speaker 6: have to take care of people in Maui. We're a
Speaker 6: big country, a big government, and we always have to
Speaker 6: worry about our own national security and our foreign policy interests.
Speaker 6: And the biggest risk we would have is if we
Speaker 6: walked away from Ukraine and China learns a lesson from
Speaker 6: that that we don't have the will to fight, We
Speaker 6: don't have the staying power to stick with our pro
Speaker 6: American friends in Europe and just side with Putin instead.
Speaker 6: I think China would take a lesson from that, and
Speaker 6: we'd find ourselves in a much worse situation.
Speaker 2: Victor Orbon says the West should make a deal with
Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin. It's not the first time he's said that
Speaker 2: a new deal on Ukraine's security architecture that should not
Speaker 2: include the return of Crimera or membership in NATO. That
Speaker 2: might sound predictable from Victor Orbon, but it brings us
Speaker 2: to the idea of a peace deal. Ambassador, You've actually
Speaker 2: sat down, as I've said earlier, with all the players
Speaker 2: that we're talking about here. We're talking about in the
Speaker 2: case of Vladimir Putin, a leader who just had if
Speaker 2: Guinny Pregosion murdered for disagreeing with him and for challenging
Speaker 2: his authority. How do you cut a deal with someone
Speaker 2: like that.
Speaker 6: You can't. You can't. Vladimir Putin has been crystal clear
Speaker 6: that he will not cut a deal. He doesn't believe
Speaker 6: that Ukraine has a right to exist as a separate
Speaker 6: national identity, people, language, culture, or country. And he's been
Speaker 6: explicit that he's seeking to reconstitute the Russian Empire. He
Speaker 6: has compared himself to Peter the Great. Catherine the Great
Speaker 6: says he's an accumulator of Russian lands, and to say
Speaker 6: that you're going to negotiate a deal with him is
Speaker 6: just nonsense, because he'll take whatever you give him and
Speaker 6: then he'll just keep fighting anyway, so it actually has
Speaker 6: to be defeated.
Speaker 2: What do you make of new talk about North Korea.
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, before we get to that, let me just
Speaker 6: all say about Warbon's comment. We always have to remember too,
Speaker 6: it's not our country, it's Ukraine. It's Ukrainian people's choice
Speaker 6: what to do. And like us, if someone invaded the
Speaker 6: United States, we would be fighting. And that's exactly what
Speaker 6: they're doing. They've been invaded. Their relatives, their friends, their territory,
Speaker 6: their families are under threat, and they are fighting back.
Speaker 6: No one can sit outside and oh just give it away.
Speaker 2: As the White House likes to say, nothing for Ukraine
Speaker 2: without Ukraine. Do you believe this idea that Vladimir Putin's
Speaker 2: warming up to the North Koreans to make an arms deal,
Speaker 2: what does that say about his relationship with China.
Speaker 6: Well, first off, what it says is that he's pretty desperate.
Speaker 6: He does not have enough weapons, he doesn't have enough ammunition.
Speaker 6: He is not able to get it from sources that
Speaker 6: he wanted to get it from. He's not able to
Speaker 6: build it better and build back quickly because of the sanctions.
Speaker 6: So he's scrounging. He's getting a drone deal with irans
Speaker 6: or Iran's going to build a drone factory in Russia
Speaker 6: and he's buying the drones directly from Iran. He wants
Speaker 6: to get ammunition, artillery and things from North Korea. Yeah,
Speaker 6: some of that may be coming from China as a
Speaker 6: sanctions of avoidance thing or a cutaway. But the fact
Speaker 6: is China could have done a lot more to help
Speaker 6: Russia in this conflict and they haven't done so. And
Speaker 6: I think this talk about North Korea is really a
Speaker 6: demonstration that Putin's in a weak position.
Speaker 2: North Korea is not exactly in possession of cutting edge technology,
Speaker 2: is it.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I wouldn't want to be using that and think
Speaker 6: they're not. They do have missile technology, and so they
Speaker 6: may be able to provide some chips or provide some
Speaker 6: things to help the Russians with that. They probably have large,
Speaker 6: large stock files of dumb artillery and that's probably what
Speaker 6: the Russians are going for.
Speaker 2: I just wonder how much this is in this case
Speaker 2: John Kirby at the White House telling us what they're
Speaker 2: hearing so it doesn't happen. We've seen that trend with
Speaker 2: the administration. Hey, we're hearing about lethal weapons from China.
Speaker 2: Just get that out there, and it seems to blunt
Speaker 2: the impact and maybe even reverse course of some of
Speaker 2: these deals in the process. Is that what's going on here?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: I think that's a good observation, frankly, because I think
Speaker 6: the Chinese have been trying to play this very carefully.
Speaker 6: They want aside with sovereignty and territorial integrity, not reward
Speaker 6: someone who's trying to break up a country because they
Speaker 6: viewed Taiwan as theirs, and they want to continue to
Speaker 6: make that claim. Their economic interests are much more tied
Speaker 6: to the US and Europe than they are to Russia,
Speaker 6: and they can buy anything from Russia that they actually want,
Speaker 6: and they even want to be part of Ukraine's reconstruction
Speaker 6: and to be providing technology and infrastructure and linking them
Speaker 6: into China's Belton Road initiative. So China has a lot
Speaker 6: of interest that go against the grain here with Russia,
Speaker 6: and it has been nice to Russia. It likes the
Speaker 6: idea of weakening a Western land global economic order, and
Speaker 6: they can instrumentalize Russia a little bit toward that goal.
Speaker 6: But they really haven't been aligned with Russian militarily, and
Speaker 6: calling them out on this is probably a good idea
Speaker 6: because it will make them think twice about how visible
Speaker 6: do we want to be doing this?
Speaker 2: Yes, right, absolutely, I've only got a minute left, Ambassador.
Speaker 2: What was your thought when you saw Vladimir Putin accepting
Speaker 2: an invitation from President She to show up in Beijing?
Speaker 2: An actual visit to Beijing? Is the unlimited friendship about
Speaker 2: to find new heights?
Speaker 6: It might have I viewed it more as a summons.
Speaker 6: It's like, see me and tell me what your plan
Speaker 6: is here.
Speaker 2: Wow, it's great to speak with you always, Ambassador. Kurt Vulker,
Speaker 2: the former US Special Representat for Ukrainey, was of course
Speaker 2: US Ambassador to NATO, joining US from overseas. Thanks for
Speaker 2: staying up with us and providing your insights, Kurt Vulker.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: To consider the situation in Ukraine now, as we were
Speaker 2: discussing with Kurt Vulkar, the back and forth is really
Speaker 2: heating up between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine attacking Russia inside
Speaker 2: of the country. Here in fact, that they hit a
Speaker 2: town that borders Estonia and Latvia. Noteworthy, as I read
Speaker 2: here on the terminal, as it's located about five hundred
Speaker 2: miles north of Ukraine, we are stretching far beyond the
Speaker 2: borders of the country. It's home to an elite Russian
Speaker 2: paratroop unit apparently targeted, and Kiev felt the blowback from
Speaker 2: Russia with the worst drone and missile attacks against the
Speaker 2: capital that we've seen since spring. Let's reassemble our panel today.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano joined Bloomberg Politics contributors having
Speaker 2: heard from Kurt Volker. Rick, I wonder your thoughts today
Speaker 2: on a war the counter offensive that is now three
Speaker 2: months old and appears to be heating up all over again.
Speaker 2: Reaching into Russia is a controversial move. Will it actually
Speaker 2: garner more support for this effort or make life more
Speaker 2: difficult for President Zelensky.
Speaker 5: Look, I think that it goes without saying that. The
Speaker 5: more active the Ukrainians are in pushing back Russia, either
Speaker 5: on the ground by getting them out of certain enclaves
Speaker 5: within Ukraine or putting pressure on them in their homeland,
Speaker 5: you know, through these drone attacks or other attacks, including
Speaker 5: the occupied territories like Crimea, that helps the case in Washington,
Speaker 5: That helps the case in the House of Representatives that
Speaker 5: this isn't a quagmire and that there's still success on
Speaker 5: the horizon and that Ukraine can can still pull us
Speaker 5: out and push Russia out of their territory. So yeah,
Speaker 5: I mean that all of these things matter. And now
Speaker 5: we're getting to the point where some of these initiatives
Speaker 5: are being pushed both on the Ukraine side and the
Speaker 5: Russian side because they know that the winter's coming. And
Speaker 5: here we go all over again, our third winter in
Speaker 5: this fight, and we're going to see probably people locking
Speaker 5: up certain territory and waiting out the winter.
Speaker 2: Genie. If we see Ukraine reaching beyond its borders like this,
Speaker 2: and some would suggest that's the only way that it
Speaker 2: will be able to win this war. What does that
Speaker 2: mean for support here in the US. There's been great
Speaker 2: worry about creep. Republicans talk about this. Who at least,
Speaker 2: I should say House Republicans who oppose the war effort
Speaker 2: as one of the things they're worried about that this
Speaker 2: is what could involve American troops if it's gone too far.
Speaker 2: How do you see it?
Speaker 4: You know, I think that is a real concern. And
Speaker 4: anything that looks.
Speaker 2: Like Jennie with us. Let's take a swing at that.
Speaker 5: Rick, Yeah, I hear Jennie.
Speaker 2: Hey, Jennie, Okay, yeah, I think that Genie. Sorry, go ahead,
Speaker 2: I'm just not hearing you.
Speaker 4: Sorry, Joe, Hi. Rick, No, you know, I was just
Speaker 4: saying that anything that looks like creep and anything that
Speaker 4: looks like stale is a bad sign for funding in Washington,
Speaker 4: d C. And you know, I think it's been coming
Speaker 4: on us to think about what one of the leading
Speaker 4: contenders on that station in Milwaukee was saying last week.
Speaker 4: But vek Ramaswami took I think one of the most radical,
Speaker 4: unorthodox positions from a Republican perspective, I've ever heard in
Speaker 4: saying that we should appease Vladimir Putin. We should give
Speaker 4: him part of the Donbass, we should allow him to
Speaker 4: keep Eastern Ukraine, and we should do that to woo
Speaker 4: him away from China. And that vek Aramaswami doesn't say
Speaker 4: things because he thinks them or because they make any sense.
Speaker 4: He says them because he's pandering to the far right
Speaker 4: of this Republican base. And there's an audience for that.
Speaker 4: There's an audience there in the Republican Congress that is
Speaker 4: going to make funding of this increasingly difficult if there
Speaker 4: are any signs of creep or stalemate. And I agree
Speaker 4: so much with what the ambassador was saying to you
Speaker 4: about the need for the White House to make a
Speaker 4: case for this, that it's in American interest, But I
Speaker 4: would just add to that it's even more important that
Speaker 4: case is made by the grown ups in the Republican
Speaker 4: Party because the base of the Republican Party does not
Speaker 4: listen to Joe Biden. They could care less what he says.
Speaker 4: It needs to come from Republicans to make that case
Speaker 4: as well.
Speaker 2: This idea of Vladimir Putin warming up to the North Koreans.
Speaker 2: Rick Volker probably said it best, the sign of desperation.
Speaker 2: But look, if North Korea does in fact begin providing munitions,
Speaker 2: even if it's old fashioned mortar rounds, I don't know
Speaker 2: what else they would have in store, maybe missile technology.
Speaker 2: To the extent that the ambassador mentioned this is a
Speaker 2: new front. Do we have to worry about here?
Speaker 5: Sure, they're just shopping for weapons, same things they did
Speaker 5: in Iran when they were able to get Iranian drones
Speaker 5: sent to Russia to attack the Ukrainians. I for one,
Speaker 5: sure feel sorry for any Russian soldier who has to
Speaker 5: light that first mortar round coming out of North Korea.
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, I mean I think you called
Speaker 5: it right. Let the buyer beware here, caveat emptor maybe
Speaker 5: the best gift that the North Koreans could give to
Speaker 5: Ukraine in the war. So uh yeah, I mean it's
Speaker 5: a it's a level of desperation. I mean they are running,
Speaker 5: as we know, they've overused the amount of equipment they've got.
Speaker 5: I mean, you think about how much it's stressed our
Speaker 5: stockpiles just shipping what we've done to Ukraine and the
Speaker 5: Russian war machine has been hobbled by sanctions and inability
Speaker 5: to get materials, you know, as as a result of
Speaker 5: those sanctions. So look, I think that just means we
Speaker 5: got to start paying attention to North Korea again and
Speaker 5: start putting heat on both Russia and North Korea. I mean, honestly,
Speaker 5: I think we've kind of taken our foot off the
Speaker 5: accelerator when it comes to sanctions, secondary sanctions, and and
Speaker 5: and I think this administration has got the tools to
Speaker 5: do it and support in Congress to to to level those.
Speaker 2: Well, now that's its term, genie. I have not heard
Speaker 2: in a while secondary sanctions. Is there a stomach for
Speaker 2: that in Washington if we're concerned about even funding the
Speaker 2: war effort?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think there is a stomach for it.
Speaker 4: I also think you need to make a case for
Speaker 4: it that people can understand, because that is what I
Speaker 4: think is really missing here. And it is that case
Speaker 4: that has not been made. You know, it wasn't just
Speaker 4: a few days ago we had Bricks meeting and then
Speaker 4: inviting six new nations to join them. They are going
Speaker 4: to confront the West. It is in our interest not
Speaker 4: to you know, step away from and defy our allies
Speaker 4: like those people in the Ukraine who we have long
Speaker 4: stood with, and part of that is funding and making
Speaker 4: sure this is a successful effort over there. But you
Speaker 4: have to do that at home, and you have to
Speaker 4: make that case here. And that is what is completely missing,
Speaker 4: and it's quite apart from the twenty four campaign because
Speaker 4: people won't vote on it.
Speaker 2: Well that's a great point. And I guess question for you, Rick,
Speaker 2: so what extent will the war in Ukraine actually be
Speaker 2: a factor in this campaign. We saw the candidate's wigh
Speaker 2: in on this in was a fairly policy heavy debate
Speaker 2: last week on the stage in Milwaukee. But once this
Speaker 2: comes down to tour, are we really arguing about Ukraine?
Speaker 2: Maybe we are.
Speaker 5: You tell me, you know, the one guy we wanted
Speaker 5: to hear from was you know, President Trump, and he
Speaker 5: wasn't on the stage. I don't think it matters what
Speaker 5: Ramaswami thinks. I thought it helped Nicki Haley to make
Speaker 5: such an articulate pitch for why it matters to support Ukraine.
Speaker 2: And and and yet.
Speaker 5: You know, look, we have this divide in the Republican
Speaker 5: Party is being driven by people who aren't even Republican.
Speaker 5: Look at the Tucker Carlson influence. In last week, he
Speaker 5: takes Trump out of the debate and interviews him, which
Speaker 5: I'm still trying to figure out what that thing was.
Speaker 5: But let's say they ate up an hour of you
Speaker 5: know X time to do it, and then he flies
Speaker 5: off to Victor Oorbon where he can run down liberal democracies,
Speaker 5: things like freedom, things like you know, a democracy, and
Speaker 5: and and talk about how the Ukrainians just sort to
Speaker 5: throw it in. So, like, you know, I think that
Speaker 5: Republicans need to start getting straight, and so does Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: That that if this country's gonna be run by Tucker Carlson,
Speaker 5: we've got a much bigger problem than domestic politics.
Speaker 2: Not a shocker to see him sit down with Victor Orbon.
Speaker 2: I guess they're pals, Genie. I wasn't gonna go there
Speaker 2: with you, but Rick brought it up here. Victor Orbon
Speaker 2: says the West should make a deal with Vladimir Putin.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's the news or if maybe
Speaker 2: he's preparing his speech for seapack next year.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Tucker Carlson is also trying to get Putin
Speaker 4: on the screen with him. Yeah, right, Well, see if
Speaker 4: that occurs listen.
Speaker 2: You know that that would be quite the bromance, wouldn't it.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it really would. Maybe they can go shirtless
Speaker 4: together and fight bears. I don't know, but you know,
Speaker 4: here's here's the thing, is that this the Republican Party
Speaker 4: from a foreign policy perspective. We are seeing such a
Speaker 4: divide there and the people who are pulling in the
Speaker 4: numbers at this point is this new really radical right
Speaker 4: wing populist idea. And so while I too wish that
Speaker 4: the vek Ramaswami and quite frankly Donald Trump stands on
Speaker 4: these issues didn't matter. They matter to the base that
Speaker 4: will decide the nominee of the party. The George Bush
Speaker 4: conservative wing old style seems to be gone. I mean,
Speaker 4: Chris Christy, Mike Pence, they're up there. I thought Nicky
Speaker 4: Hilly did a brilliant job, but it is not resonating
Speaker 4: with the base. And they're running in the primary right now,
Speaker 4: not the general election. And this is a problem not
Speaker 4: just for this party but for the entire country, and
Speaker 4: the leaders of the party need to step up and
Speaker 4: set this straight. But it has not happened yet.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: We have the voice of Rock longs now the executive
Speaker 2: chairman of Hagridy Consulting, but he was not that long ago,
Speaker 2: the administrator of FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency that
Speaker 2: is in the throes of dealing with this storm and
Speaker 2: the situation in Hawaii and what will likely be a
Speaker 2: very large supplemental funding request. Brock Long, welcome back to Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: It's good to have you. Do agree with with Brian's
Speaker 2: take here. This could have been a lot worse for Florida.
Speaker 7: Well, I think the worst case scenario would have been
Speaker 7: a would have been this if this event had gone
Speaker 7: into the Tampa and Penelas County. You know, I think
Speaker 7: that the citizens living in and around that area should
Speaker 7: be very aware that they got missed by this storm.
Speaker 7: It went in pretty far to the north, but they
Speaker 7: still got four to six feet of storm surch so
Speaker 7: imagine what would happen if it was a direct hit.
Speaker 7: But the most important thing is this storm is definitely
Speaker 7: not over, and Adelia, there is a reminder that not
Speaker 7: all storms are coastal events. While we're worried about storm
Speaker 7: surge and storm search has the highest potential to kill
Speaker 7: the most amount of people and calls the most amount
Speaker 7: of damage. This system is trucking through at twenty miles
Speaker 7: an hour through south south south South Georgia, headed up
Speaker 7: towards South Carolina, North Carolina, and with that, anybody that
Speaker 7: is living near where the center of circulation is going
Speaker 7: to pass is going to experience hurricane force winds. And
Speaker 7: I worry about the construction standards of some of the
Speaker 7: homes in some of these south like South Georgia, South Carolina,
Speaker 7: and some of these areas. They're going to see a
Speaker 7: tremendous damage inland. And it's definitely not over. This is
Speaker 7: going to be a pretty sizable event for FEMA.
Speaker 2: So we're not out of the woods yet literally as
Speaker 2: this heads inland to Georgia. The other problem I'm sure
Speaker 2: brought is that these people were not told to evacuate
Speaker 2: like those on the coast were warned repeatedly by officials
Speaker 2: in Florida.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so the main reason that we issue evacuations in
Speaker 7: the emergency management arena is again for storm surge. Right, So,
Speaker 7: while storms are classified by wind intensity, the storm surge
Speaker 7: again has the highest potential to cause the most amount
Speaker 7: of deaths. And in this case, sixteen feet of storm
Speaker 7: surge coming into the Florida Panhandle, and that doesn't include
Speaker 7: another three to six feet of breaking waves on top
Speaker 7: obviously swallows people up. And I've always said that storm
Speaker 7: surge is the unforgivable hazard associate with hurricanes. Very few
Speaker 7: people live to tell about what their experience was like
Speaker 7: going through through storm surge when it moves inland. You know,
Speaker 7: the goal is if you're not in if you're not
Speaker 7: in a facility that can withstand hurricane force winds, then
Speaker 7: you don't have to go very far. But you can
Speaker 7: shelter in place, and other homes or other facilities that
Speaker 7: may be opened by local officials that can withstand the
Speaker 7: winds that are built to a higher standard. Florida's done
Speaker 7: a great job with building codes. Other states, you know,
Speaker 7: could step up their standards, you know, to make sure
Speaker 7: that in the future we reduce the impacts of these things.
Speaker 7: But that's what we're looking at right now.
Speaker 2: A lot of folks and watching Governor Ron DeSantis closely.
Speaker 2: He's no stranger to storms, remembering I believe it was
Speaker 2: Ida last year that we saw him deal with. But
Speaker 2: he's come off the campaign trail to manage it. Is
Speaker 2: that necessary for the governor of a state to make
Speaker 2: that effort? Does he actually need to be there or
Speaker 2: could he have orchestrated this from somewhere else?
Speaker 7: No, absolutely, governor's you know, all disasters are locally executed,
Speaker 7: state managed, and federally supported. So it's not FEMA's disaster.
Speaker 7: FEMA's you know, while it's looked at is nine one one,
Speaker 7: it really isn't. FEMA is designed to support a governor's
Speaker 7: actions when it comes to events like this. You know,
Speaker 7: FEMA again is there to fill a you know, to
Speaker 7: help state governments overcome any gaps, or to support major
Speaker 7: missions like search and rescue and debris removal, those types
Speaker 7: of things. But the governor being there and taking charge
Speaker 7: is exactly what the governor should, any governor should be
Speaker 7: doing and putting forth their command and control. They are
Speaker 7: the chief executive for their state. When lives are in
Speaker 7: danger and when lives are going to be you know,
Speaker 7: altered as a result of this, they need to be
Speaker 7: you know, front and center. And that's what that's what
Speaker 7: you're seeing.
Speaker 2: I guess we're going to add Brian Kemp to that
Speaker 2: list as well if he's dealing with some damage in Georgia. Brocklong,
Speaker 2: there's a big conversation about funding here in Washington. I'm
Speaker 2: sure you're well aware of it. The Biden administration will
Speaker 2: likely have to make a pretty major request for supplemental
Speaker 2: funding to handle what's happened in Hawaii, of course, now
Speaker 2: in Florida and the southeast and what might come next.
Speaker 2: The line that we've been hearing is just, you know,
Speaker 2: one hurricane could make the difference, and we've had a
Speaker 2: couple of events here. Does this look like the right
Speaker 2: amount that FEMA needs in terms of resources that that's
Speaker 2: coming from the White.
Speaker 7: House regardless of this current hurricane, FEMA needs the funding
Speaker 7: and what you know, most citizens have no idea how
Speaker 7: busy FEMA is from day to day. And right now,
Speaker 7: FEMA has twenty three joint field offices spread across this country.
Speaker 7: Some are physical, summer virtual, but They're working over seventy
Speaker 7: five different disaster declaration requests that are currently open across
Speaker 7: It's not just Maui, It's not just this this current hurricane.
Speaker 7: Seventy five different disasters are going to be impacted by
Speaker 7: the lack of recovery dollars. And what FEMA has to
Speaker 7: do with the Disaster Relief Fund is they have to
Speaker 7: estimate by each quarter fiscal quarter, they have to estimate
Speaker 7: how much money is likely going to go out and
Speaker 7: be obligated on behalf of local communities and state governments
Speaker 7: to help them affect the long term recovery, which takes years.
Speaker 7: And if I read the disaster you know, the Disaster
Speaker 7: Relief Funding report that they put out most recently, they
Speaker 7: estimated over two billion dollars was going to be needed
Speaker 7: to you know, administer the recovery to the recovery needs
Speaker 7: at these local levels. And that was before Maui, the
Speaker 7: Maui wildfires, and this new hurricane. So Congress is got
Speaker 7: to step up. They need to pass a clean supplemental
Speaker 7: and get the funding to Dean chris Well, the administrator
Speaker 7: of FEMA, and give her all the tools she needs
Speaker 7: in her toolbox that are necessary to handle not just
Speaker 7: this event, but all the events.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you worry about ideas of this getting bogged down,
Speaker 2: and it could. The White House needs money for a
Speaker 2: lot of things. The government has to be funded. You've
Speaker 2: got a war in Ukraine. Is this something that should
Speaker 2: be handled as a standalone issue or you worry that
Speaker 2: it gets bogged down into a lot of other things.
Speaker 2: I know you're not a political analyst brought I don't
Speaker 2: want to make you one, but you do know the
Speaker 2: resources that FEMA needs well.
Speaker 7: I've always thought that the you know, the future of
Speaker 7: FEMA should be one that's politically neutral, that should not
Speaker 7: be a political animal by any means or be brought
Speaker 7: into politics. I mean, we're talking about people's lives and
Speaker 7: the viability of communities before, during, and after disasters. Soul
Speaker 7: I would hope that we could find another way to
Speaker 7: work out other issues, whether it's Ukraine or other funding
Speaker 7: that's on the periphery of this DRF funding. Get the
Speaker 7: money in the coffers and you know, help help FEMA out.
Speaker 7: Because what happens is is that FEMIS had to move
Speaker 7: to immediate needs funding, which means that the only money
Speaker 7: going out FEMIS doors right now is dedicated to life
Speaker 7: safety and life sustaining missions. So all of the communities
Speaker 7: over the past couple of years that have been through
Speaker 7: you know, disasters like Hurricane Michael, Hurricane E and Hurricane Irma,
Speaker 7: you know all of these other hurricanes that have occurred
Speaker 7: in Florida, for example, the long term recovery dollars come
Speaker 7: to a screeching halt and it backs up projects, you know,
Speaker 7: major infrastructure projects or you know, different things that need
Speaker 7: to be done to help a community fully recover or
Speaker 7: become more resilient for the next event. And that's what's
Speaker 7: going on here. So again, I mean, I think it's
Speaker 7: got to be a clean, clean supplemental get it done,
Speaker 7: get d M the money she needs. But there does
Speaker 7: need to be a greater conversation about the future of
Speaker 7: emergency management and the way that we do disaster decorations.
Speaker 7: I don't belie that the current system incentivizes proper land
Speaker 7: use planning states that implement stronger building codes or properly
Speaker 7: ensure their their public infrastructure which we all depend on.
Speaker 2: We haven't talked about California in some time. Was what
Speaker 2: the week two weeks ago we were looking at historic
Speaker 2: flooding in Palm Springs Brock. There's an element of this story,
Speaker 2: and I don't have a lot of people want to
Speaker 2: talk about it. Not everybody does, at least involving climate change.
Speaker 2: And I wonder your thoughts on this if this is
Speaker 2: going to become more severe in areas not used to
Speaker 2: this type of weather every year as we go forward.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 7: So, so there's a couple of things that are taking
Speaker 7: place here. I mean, you know, I believe in a
Speaker 7: client in a changing climate. I also believe in climate variabilities.
Speaker 7: There are different cycles that impact the severity of disasters
Speaker 7: or the frequency of disasters, such as thermal haline circulation
Speaker 7: or al Nino or La Nina. And you know, it's
Speaker 7: a changing climate coupled with climate variability, coupled with we
Speaker 7: got a lot of people living in vulnerable areas, and
Speaker 7: you know, with a lack of building codes, a lack
Speaker 7: of land news planning. And so it's a culmination of
Speaker 7: manufactors that is playing a part here as to why
Speaker 7: disasters are getting worse. And for any citizen in the
Speaker 7: United States, you know, the last place you need to
Speaker 7: cut back on expenses is ensuring your homes and insurance
Speaker 7: is the first line of defense. And I know that
Speaker 7: there's a big debate there, you know, with insurance companies
Speaker 7: pulling out of certain parts of California or Florida. But
Speaker 7: Congress is going to have to work with the private
Speaker 7: sector to be able to understand how you keep these
Speaker 7: insurance industry there. But it's also there's work that's got
Speaker 7: to be done by our legislators to increase the performance
Speaker 7: capability of our communities. And until that happens, strap your
Speaker 7: seatbelt on. Continue to see these disasters get worse and
Speaker 7: worse every year.
Speaker 2: How much do you worry about what you just referred
Speaker 2: to its state farm and all state both pulling out
Speaker 2: of a place like California. What's a homeowner supposed to do?
Speaker 7: I do worry about the vulnerability that many homeowners are
Speaker 7: facing and repetitive loss areas and different things. People that
Speaker 7: can't get that can't get insurance because again, it is
Speaker 7: their first line of defense. And when you have home
Speaker 7: you know, homeowners or families that lose everything and are
Speaker 7: uninsured or under insured, their credit spirals out of control.
Speaker 7: After that, it is very hard to overcome that. And
Speaker 7: you know, I don't know what all the answers are
Speaker 7: when it comes to the insurance industries and what it
Speaker 7: takes to keep them there. But I do think that
Speaker 7: you know, there has got to be some serious sit
Speaker 7: down meetings between FEMA, Congress, the insurance industry, code officials,
Speaker 7: Landy's planning officials to say what is the right balance
Speaker 7: here as we're facing new extremes.
Speaker 2: Great conversation brought long, great insights, and I thank you
Speaker 2: for them now at Hagridy Consulting is the former administrator
Speaker 2: of FEMA in a conversation you'll only hear on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure
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