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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on

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Speaker 2: It's not every day we sit down with a presidential candidate,

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Speaker 2: and I'm glad to say that Asa Hutchinson is back

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Speaker 2: with us, of course, the former governor of Arkansas and

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Speaker 2: Republican presidential candidate. Just what almost exactly a week I

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Speaker 2: guess it is off the debate stage in Milwaukee. Thank

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Speaker 2: you for coming back in. It's good to see you, sir.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's good to be here, and you're right, what

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Speaker 3: incredible experience in Milwaukee on the debate stage. I've got

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Speaker 3: very pleased with how we got there, but also the

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Speaker 3: message that we had. I think we showcased that I'm

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Speaker 3: ready to be president of the United States.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you more about that, but I'd

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Speaker 2: love your input on the conversation. We were just having. You

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Speaker 2: know what it's like to run a state, and to

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Speaker 2: run a state that's dealing with a natural disaster. We

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Speaker 2: remember the flooding in Arkansas in twenty nineteen, for instance.

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Speaker 2: I realize that's probably still pretty near in your thought,

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Speaker 2: in your memory. We're watching Rhonda Santis, one of your

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Speaker 2: rivals on the campaign trail, deal with this now in Florida,

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Speaker 2: and apparently it's going to become Brian Kemp's problem now

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Speaker 2: rolling into Georgia. The job of a governor in a

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Speaker 2: time like this, this really defines urgency in that position,

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Speaker 2: doesn't it.

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Speaker 3: Well, it does, and there's nothing more important than first

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Speaker 3: of all, a governor has to be there during times

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Speaker 3: of crisis. Secondly, you have to communicate effectively. People are

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Speaker 3: looking to you for leadership, for guidance, they trust you.

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Speaker 3: And then thirdly it's a response capability, which is really

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Speaker 3: managing and how you've been prepared for that all along.

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Speaker 3: And so this is what governors do. I had to

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Speaker 3: do it as governor during a five hundred year record flood.

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Speaker 3: Governor DeSantis is going through it. Of course, they have

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Speaker 3: the hurricanes down there on an annual base.

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Speaker 2: That's so they're very ready for this, very prepared. It's

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Speaker 2: an opportunity. Though I supposed to show leadership. Did he

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Speaker 2: do the right thing by coming off the campaign trail? Oh,

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Speaker 2: of course he did.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely. There was any question about that. You have to

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Speaker 3: be there. And again you contrast that, if I might

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Speaker 3: with President Biden, who's delayed in going to Hawaii. I

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Speaker 3: mean the being there taking the natural disasters very seriously.

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Speaker 3: This is when people are hurting, and he did the

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Speaker 3: right thing by going back to Florida.

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Speaker 2: You thought that Joe Biden should have gone earlier to Hawaii.

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Speaker 2: How would you have handled that if you had been president.

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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, your comments to the nation immediately

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Speaker 3: afterwards would be very important, sympathetic and showing that you're

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Speaker 3: on top of it and not a more casual no

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Speaker 3: comment type. And then secondly, you've got to be there

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Speaker 3: very quickly, you know. And I don't want to be

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Speaker 3: overly critical, but it just illustrates that, whether you're the

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Speaker 3: president or whether you're a governor, during times of crisis,

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Speaker 3: you have to be there. You have to help comfort

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Speaker 3: and guide the recovery.

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Speaker 2: There's something about and mayors for that matter. As somebody

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Speaker 2: who covers politics, governors and mayors have just a different

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Speaker 2: reality than for instance, members of Congress, the House, or

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Speaker 2: the Senate, because you have to deal with reality and

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Speaker 2: you have to deal with everyone. Do you wish you

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Speaker 2: had more of an opportunity to tell that story. You're

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Speaker 2: not the only governor on the stage here. That makes

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Speaker 2: you different from those who have never been an executive.

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Speaker 4: Oh.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: I think governors are in are set apart. They know

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Speaker 3: how to lead, they're held accountable, and I would like

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Speaker 3: to have told more of what we've done in Arkansas,

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Speaker 3: particularly in contrast to Governor DeSantis, who talked about how

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Speaker 3: they managed through the pandemic. I was waiting for the

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Speaker 3: opportunity to talk about how we did it in Arkansas.

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Speaker 3: And I think there will be another occasion at the

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Speaker 3: Reagan Library because I think those questions will come up again.

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Speaker 3: But know my record of cutting taxes, creating a surplus,

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Speaker 3: creating jobs in Arkansas, and balancing a budget, they're very

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Speaker 3: relevant to be president of the United States. The way

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Speaker 3: I guided through the pandemic, and making sure our businesses

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Speaker 3: had an opportunity to survive, not sheltering in place as

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Speaker 3: many of the other states did, and keeping our schools

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Speaker 3: open after those first couple of months for in classroom instructions.

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Speaker 3: These are things that set my leadership apart. I look

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Speaker 3: forward to the opportunity to talk about those more.

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Speaker 2: Do you expect to be on the debate stage at

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Speaker 2: the Library.

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Speaker 3: Oh absolutely. You know, I've surprised everybody every step of

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Speaker 3: the way. Nobody thought I'd be on the first debate stage,

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Speaker 3: and we made it thanks to a lot of support

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Speaker 3: from voters out there that wanted to make sure I

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Speaker 3: was there. And now a lot of people don't think

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Speaker 3: I'll be on the second debate stage.

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Speaker 2: I will be there.

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Speaker 3: I will be there because we have a growing level

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Speaker 3: of support. My message continues to be important.

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Speaker 2: Interesting when we talk about the message what you just

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Speaker 2: said about being governor, there are questions about whether that's

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Speaker 2: resonating with Republicans today in a way that it might

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Speaker 2: have ten or twenty years ago. That it's about red meat,

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Speaker 2: it's about conspiracies, it's about Trump. You saw Vivik Ramaswami

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Speaker 2: come flying off the stage because of some of the

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Speaker 2: more outlandish things he said. This is someone with no

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Speaker 2: electoral experience. Do you worry that you're talking to a

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Speaker 2: different crowd now than you were earlier in your career.

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Speaker 3: Well, if you want pure entertainment, there's others besides me

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Speaker 3: to support. And you know, I suppose it started to

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Speaker 3: a certain extent with Donald Trump that came out of

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Speaker 3: the entertainment world straight into the presidency the United States,

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Speaker 3: and now the impression is that anybody can do that.

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Speaker 3: And you know, you even think about Ronald Reagan. He

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Speaker 3: was an actor, but he was also a governor first

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Speaker 3: and then he became president. George W. Bush, you know,

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Speaker 3: was then became president.

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Speaker 2: And so.

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Speaker 3: I think they still have a high regard for governors.

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Speaker 3: I think that does make a difference. But it's more

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Speaker 3: than that. It's more than being a governor. They want

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Speaker 3: to see somebody that will fight in Washington, somebody that

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Speaker 3: will be aggressive in making sure that we tackle the

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Speaker 3: administrative state, reduced regulatory burdens. And so that's on me

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Speaker 3: to make sure I showcased my record, but also what

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Speaker 3: I will do.

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Speaker 2: There's another governor on that stage who is known for

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Speaker 2: going after Donald Trump, and that's Chris CHRISTI. Is there

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Speaker 2: room for both of you? Well, I think so.

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Speaker 3: Whenever you look at eight candidates on that stage and

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Speaker 3: only two of us had a non Trump message, Yes,

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Speaker 3: I probably was even more clear when I said I

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Speaker 3: would not support somebody who was convicted of a fellow.

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Speaker 2: And at one point you were the only candidate to

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Speaker 2: not raise a hand Chris Christy had a little confusion there.

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Speaker 2: I think we know what he meant. But what does

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Speaker 2: that tell us about that stage when only two of

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Speaker 2: you would respond.

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Speaker 3: That way, Well, it tells you there's a fear factor

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Speaker 3: as to offending Donald Trump. And if you're running against him,

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Speaker 3: don't worry about it, get over it. That's what we're

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Speaker 3: doing is and that why you're running it exactly. And

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Speaker 3: so I'm surprised by that. But you know, in reference

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Speaker 3: to Chris Christy, you know, in some ways we're in

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Speaker 3: the same lane. We all bring something different and we

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Speaker 3: bring it in different ways. So it's what kind of

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Speaker 3: leader do you want for our country? And I'll present

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Speaker 3: my case, we'll see what the voter how they respond to.

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Speaker 2: We're spending time with former Governor Asa Hutchinson, of course

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Speaker 2: Republican presidential candidate. I'd like to ask you about the

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Speaker 2: fourteenth Amendment, because you've been talking about this and I'm

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Speaker 2: compelled by this idea that the president, in your former president,

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Speaker 2: in your eyes, may be unfit for office because of

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Speaker 2: the legal challenges that he's facing now four times indicted.

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Speaker 2: If it comes to it, will you sue invoking the

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Speaker 2: fourteenth amendments to get him out of this race.

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Speaker 3: No, I don't expect that to happen. There will be

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Speaker 3: plenty of others that will raise that issue. So I

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Speaker 3: don't need to and I would not want to.

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Speaker 5: But let me.

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Speaker 2: Describe it this way.

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Speaker 3: It's a constitutional requirement for eligibility. For example, right now,

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Speaker 3: you have to be thirty five to run for president

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Speaker 3: of the United States. A secretary of state will not

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Speaker 3: put somebody on the ballot who's thirty four or thirty three.

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Speaker 3: They make that determination. This is a constitutional requirement. They

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Speaker 3: have to review as well and make a determination whether

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Speaker 3: they violate the fourteenth Amendment. I suspect that there will

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Speaker 3: be one or more secretaries of States that will make

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Speaker 3: a determination that he is ineligible because of the fourteenth Amendment,

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Speaker 3: which says if you're a federal official, he can't commit

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Speaker 3: acts of insurrection or you're disqualified from being on the ballot.

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Speaker 3: And if a secretary of State says no, he is eligible,

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Speaker 3: then you can expect somebody to sue saying they were

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Speaker 3: wrong in making that determination they're ineligible and take it

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Speaker 3: to court. And so the bottom line is this would

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Speaker 3: be the Democrats dream scenario that we nominate somebody at

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Speaker 3: the convention that will later be determined by the course

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Speaker 3: to be ineligible to hold office.

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Speaker 2: Are you talking to your fellow candidates about this? Might

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Speaker 2: there be I don't want to say class action, but

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Speaker 2: a cooperation in moving this issue forward. I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's necessary.

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Speaker 3: This is going to play out with the various secretary

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Speaker 3: of States and different citizens that want to raise this

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Speaker 3: issue in court. So you know, I made my case.

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Speaker 3: I think it's important for the public Republican voters to

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Speaker 3: understand this risk and it should be a factor in

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Speaker 3: determine who's going to be our nominee. That's why I

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Speaker 3: raised in the debate. I was the only one that

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Speaker 3: talked about this. And you know, you talk about he

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Speaker 3: can't win in November, he can't bring in independence, but

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Speaker 3: also you've got this issue of actually being disqualified under

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Speaker 3: the fourteenth Amendment as another risk factor.

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Speaker 2: Lastly, when it talks when we talk about winning over independence,

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Speaker 2: is the issue the economy that we'll get that done?

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Speaker 2: Or is it something else we talk about so much

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Speaker 2: around here, But when we go back to it's the economy, stupid?

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Speaker 2: Is that actually what we'll decide this race?

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Speaker 3: Well, the economy is the number one issue it is,

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Speaker 3: and independence voters trust Republicans to handle the economy more

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Speaker 3: so than Democrats, and so that's why it's going to

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Speaker 3: be a key political issue. But also when you ask

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Speaker 3: about bringing in independence, is more than just the economy.

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Speaker 3: It's also who's going to listen, who's going to care,

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Speaker 3: who's going to take us in a rational way into

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Speaker 3: the future and lead our country. And so those are

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Speaker 3: some intangible qualities that independence will look at as well.

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Speaker 3: And they don't want a strident extremist is that leads

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Speaker 3: or somebody who's going to create chaos every day. They

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Speaker 3: want someone that will stand for their values and represent

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Speaker 3: the home, but also set an example for young people

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Speaker 3: and kind of leadership we need in our country.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know, we like to talk policy around here,

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Speaker 2: and you're always welcome at the table. It's great to

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Speaker 2: have you back, Governor. We'll be looking for you at

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Speaker 2: the Reagan Library next month. We'll see you there. Thank you, Governor.

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Speaker 2: Asa Hutchinson. Of course, Republican presidential candidate in a conversation

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Speaker 2: you won't hear anywhere else. Today.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound On podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Pretty wild headlines coming from Ukraine. If you're looking at

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Speaker 2: the terminal, you know what I'm talking about. Russia hit

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Speaker 2: by drone wave as Kiev battles biggest blitz in months,

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Speaker 2: Ukraine getting two hundred and fifty million more in arms

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Speaker 2: from stock that of course from the US. And then

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Speaker 2: a wild card here today, according to the White House,

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Speaker 2: Russia and North Korea working on an arms deal, something

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Speaker 2: they describe as actively advancing. We have a lot to

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Speaker 2: talk about with Kurt Volker. I'm delighted to say that

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Speaker 2: he's with us now, the former US Special Representative for Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: former US Ambassador to NATO. Mister ambassador, welcome back to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to dip into all of these with you,

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Speaker 2: but immediately, the situation in Ukraine involving the counter offensive.

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Speaker 2: The narrative most recently has been that it's falling short

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Speaker 2: of goals. Now we're seeing Ukraine reach deeper into Russia

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Speaker 2: with what's described as the biggest drone wave that we

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Speaker 2: have seen in months. How do you see the counter offensive?

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Speaker 2: How would you describe the stage that it's at now?

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Speaker 6: Right? Well, first go if I think it's important to

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Speaker 6: understand what Ukrainians are trying to do because a lot

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Speaker 6: of people expected Ukraine to break through these defensive lines

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Speaker 6: and take a lot of terror very quickly, and so

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Speaker 6: they were very disappointed as you go through July and

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Speaker 6: August and they didn't get that far. But what Ukrainians

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Speaker 6: were trying to do was to take out Russian logistical

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Speaker 6: supply lines, the way that the Russians provide fuel and

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Speaker 6: ammunition and food and transportation for their forces that are deployed.

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Speaker 6: These are very long supply lines and they've done a

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Speaker 6: very good job at that. They've also been trying to

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Speaker 6: protect their people as they try to clear minefields, and

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Speaker 6: that's a painstaking and slow process. They're not willing to

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Speaker 6: throw people up as cannon fodder the way the Russians do.

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Speaker 6: They're being much more methodical, so they're doing that. And

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Speaker 6: then the third thing is they are making the Russian

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Speaker 6: people and the Russian military aware that this is a

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Speaker 6: real war. It's not this special military operation and denocification

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Speaker 6: that Putin likes to tell the Russian people it's about.

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Speaker 6: It is really a conflict with their neighboring country. And

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Speaker 6: they're sending drones to airfield, They're sending drone to Moscow.

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Speaker 6: They knocked out one of Russia's naval ships at the

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Speaker 6: port of Novo Usirsk. They hid an oil tanker as well,

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Speaker 6: disabling that vessel. So they're showing the Russians that they

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Speaker 6: are not going away, and that is piling on to

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Speaker 6: the political turmoil or churn that's going on inside Russia anyway.

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Speaker 2: Were you concerned about the counter offensive where we had

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Speaker 2: reports that US intelligence was growing skeptical that this would

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Speaker 2: be a success, that it was in fact falling short

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Speaker 2: of goals, And that has already begun to impact the

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Speaker 2: debate over funding here in Washington. This is a capital

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Speaker 2: that was already in the throes of debate, and Republicans

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Speaker 2: don't want to back a loser here. It seems to

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Speaker 2: be as simple as that. How do you see it?

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, I just wrote a piece today. It's

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Speaker 6: at dot org and it's basically saying that. Remember, we

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Speaker 6: declared independence July fourth of seventeen seventy six, and in

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Speaker 6: the winter of seventeen seventy seven seventy eight, George Washington

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Speaker 6: was in Valley Forge with a ragtag army, cold weather,

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Speaker 6: and the British occupied Philadelphia and New York. So we

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Speaker 6: can't look at the Ukrainians there eighteen months after this

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Speaker 6: conflict started and just write them off. They are determined,

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Speaker 6: they are have an ironclad will, They have outside helped

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Speaker 6: the way that we did, and the Russians actually have

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Speaker 6: very long supply lines in a very difficult time here.

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Speaker 6: So I think it is way too early to write

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Speaker 6: off the Ukrainians here.

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Speaker 2: Whenever we see Kiev move into Russia, though, it's answered

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Speaker 2: by overwhelming strikes, cruise missiles into apartment buildings. We saw

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Speaker 2: two people killed and what was the heaviest air assault

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Speaker 2: on Kiev since spring? Ambassador, How worried are you that

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Speaker 2: there's more of that in the near term?

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Speaker 6: Well, there will be more of that, and the reason

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Speaker 6: for that it's important people will understand the Russians can't

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Speaker 6: take more territory, they can't advance. Their army is incapable

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Speaker 6: of doing that. So they're doing what they can do,

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Speaker 6: which is just throw bombs and missiles at cities and

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Speaker 6: kill civilians. It's completely random. The Ukrainians have improved air

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Speaker 6: defenses now not perfect, but improved, so they're able to

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Speaker 6: take down the majority of the drones and the missiles

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Speaker 6: and things that are fired at them, but some do

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Speaker 6: get through. And the case today where these people were killed,

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Speaker 6: I believe it was because of falling debris. So they

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Speaker 6: actually took out the missile that was coming, but then

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Speaker 6: the debris fell and killed a couple of people as

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Speaker 6: it fell.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot more to talk about here when it

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Speaker 2: comes to funding. As I mentioned a couple of moments ago,

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty million dollars more in weapons from

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Speaker 2: US stockpiles. But there's a supplemental budget request that's coming

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Speaker 2: from this White House. Everybody knows that we're talking about

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Speaker 2: a possible government shut down as soon as the end

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Speaker 2: of next month. Ambassador, how much of what's happening on

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Speaker 2: the ground in Ukraine specifically, but I suppose Russia as well,

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Speaker 2: will impact the outcome of that debate here.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think if the Ukrainians have great success on

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Speaker 6: the ground, that will obviously encourage people to go forward

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Speaker 6: with it, but I think the votes are there regardless,

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Speaker 6: both in the Senate and the House. I think the

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Speaker 6: votes are there to approve it. What I'm disappointed by

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Speaker 6: is that the Administration is not out there making a

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Speaker 6: stronger case as to why this is an America's interest.

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Speaker 6: Everyone looks at it as help for Ukraine. They don't

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Speaker 6: look at it as it's in our interest to see

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Speaker 6: the Russian imperialism and authoritarianism in Europe is defeated so

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Speaker 6: that we don't actually have to end up defending some

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Speaker 6: of our NATO elements. Giving the Ukrainians the weapons and

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Speaker 6: letting them fight is a very pragmatic way to deal

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Speaker 6: with it, and it's been very cost effective. It's been

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Speaker 6: about three and a half percent of one year's defense budget,

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Speaker 6: and we've seen we see one of our major adversaries

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Speaker 6: now tearing itself apart, you know, with the shooting planes

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Speaker 6: out of a sky I over Moscow with progosion on board.

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Speaker 6: So this is actually a pretty good bargain for the

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Speaker 6: American people, and I wish the White House would be

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Speaker 6: making that case. I also think that for both parties,

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Speaker 6: for the Republicans and the Democrats, it would be smart

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Speaker 6: to pass a big spending bill for Ukraine this year

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Speaker 6: and get it out of the way. I don't think

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Speaker 6: it's responsible or in anyone's interest to be debating this

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Speaker 6: again and having multiple votes next year during the presidential election.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, there's a lot there. I could only imagine

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Speaker 2: your thought if you were watching or listening to the

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Speaker 2: Republican presidential debate. I guess it was just about a

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Speaker 2: week ago now, the number of candidates on that stage

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Speaker 2: suggesting that we need to not only take another look

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Speaker 2: at this, but that we should not be supporting a

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Speaker 2: war effort in Ukraine when there are people suffering here

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Speaker 2: in the US. We're going to hear a lot more

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Speaker 2: about this on the trail, aren't we.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, we are, we are, and I think people have

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Speaker 6: to see through these false choices. Of Course, we have

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Speaker 6: to take care of the southern border. Of course, we

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Speaker 6: have to take care of people in Maui. We're a

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Speaker 6: big country, a big government, and we always have to

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Speaker 6: worry about our own national security and our foreign policy interests.

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Speaker 6: And the biggest risk we would have is if we

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Speaker 6: walked away from Ukraine and China learns a lesson from

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Speaker 6: that that we don't have the will to fight, We

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Speaker 6: don't have the staying power to stick with our pro

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Speaker 6: American friends in Europe and just side with Putin instead.

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Speaker 6: I think China would take a lesson from that, and

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Speaker 6: we'd find ourselves in a much worse situation.

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Speaker 2: Victor Orbon says the West should make a deal with

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin. It's not the first time he's said that

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Speaker 2: a new deal on Ukraine's security architecture that should not

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Speaker 2: include the return of Crimera or membership in NATO. That

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Speaker 2: might sound predictable from Victor Orbon, but it brings us

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Speaker 2: to the idea of a peace deal. Ambassador, You've actually

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Speaker 2: sat down, as I've said earlier, with all the players

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Speaker 2: that we're talking about here. We're talking about in the

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Speaker 2: case of Vladimir Putin, a leader who just had if

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Speaker 2: Guinny Pregosion murdered for disagreeing with him and for challenging

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Speaker 2: his authority. How do you cut a deal with someone

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Speaker 2: like that.

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Speaker 6: You can't. You can't. Vladimir Putin has been crystal clear

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Speaker 6: that he will not cut a deal. He doesn't believe

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Speaker 6: that Ukraine has a right to exist as a separate

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Speaker 6: national identity, people, language, culture, or country. And he's been

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Speaker 6: explicit that he's seeking to reconstitute the Russian Empire. He

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Speaker 6: has compared himself to Peter the Great. Catherine the Great

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Speaker 6: says he's an accumulator of Russian lands, and to say

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Speaker 6: that you're going to negotiate a deal with him is

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Speaker 6: just nonsense, because he'll take whatever you give him and

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Speaker 6: then he'll just keep fighting anyway, so it actually has

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Speaker 6: to be defeated.

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Speaker 2: What do you make of new talk about North Korea.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, well, before we get to that, let me just

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Speaker 6: all say about Warbon's comment. We always have to remember too,

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Speaker 6: it's not our country, it's Ukraine. It's Ukrainian people's choice

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Speaker 6: what to do. And like us, if someone invaded the

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Speaker 6: United States, we would be fighting. And that's exactly what

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Speaker 6: they're doing. They've been invaded. Their relatives, their friends, their territory,

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Speaker 6: their families are under threat, and they are fighting back.

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Speaker 6: No one can sit outside and oh just give it away.

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Speaker 2: As the White House likes to say, nothing for Ukraine

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Speaker 2: without Ukraine. Do you believe this idea that Vladimir Putin's

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Speaker 2: warming up to the North Koreans to make an arms deal,

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Speaker 2: what does that say about his relationship with China.

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Speaker 6: Well, first off, what it says is that he's pretty desperate.

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Speaker 6: He does not have enough weapons, he doesn't have enough ammunition.

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Speaker 6: He is not able to get it from sources that

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Speaker 6: he wanted to get it from. He's not able to

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Speaker 6: build it better and build back quickly because of the sanctions.

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Speaker 6: So he's scrounging. He's getting a drone deal with irans

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Speaker 6: or Iran's going to build a drone factory in Russia

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Speaker 6: and he's buying the drones directly from Iran. He wants

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Speaker 6: to get ammunition, artillery and things from North Korea. Yeah,

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Speaker 6: some of that may be coming from China as a

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Speaker 6: sanctions of avoidance thing or a cutaway. But the fact

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Speaker 6: is China could have done a lot more to help

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Speaker 6: Russia in this conflict and they haven't done so. And

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Speaker 6: I think this talk about North Korea is really a

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Speaker 6: demonstration that Putin's in a weak position.

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Speaker 2: North Korea is not exactly in possession of cutting edge technology,

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Speaker 2: is it.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I wouldn't want to be using that and think

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Speaker 6: they're not. They do have missile technology, and so they

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Speaker 6: may be able to provide some chips or provide some

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Speaker 6: things to help the Russians with that. They probably have large,

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Speaker 6: large stock files of dumb artillery and that's probably what

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Speaker 6: the Russians are going for.

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Speaker 2: I just wonder how much this is in this case

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Speaker 2: John Kirby at the White House telling us what they're

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Speaker 2: hearing so it doesn't happen. We've seen that trend with

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Speaker 2: the administration. Hey, we're hearing about lethal weapons from China.

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Speaker 2: Just get that out there, and it seems to blunt

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Speaker 2: the impact and maybe even reverse course of some of

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Speaker 2: these deals in the process. Is that what's going on here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: I think that's a good observation, frankly, because I think

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Speaker 6: the Chinese have been trying to play this very carefully.

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Speaker 6: They want aside with sovereignty and territorial integrity, not reward

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Speaker 6: someone who's trying to break up a country because they

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Speaker 6: viewed Taiwan as theirs, and they want to continue to

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Speaker 6: make that claim. Their economic interests are much more tied

436
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,400
Speaker 6: to the US and Europe than they are to Russia,

437
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 6: and they can buy anything from Russia that they actually want,

438
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 6: and they even want to be part of Ukraine's reconstruction

439
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,320
Speaker 6: and to be providing technology and infrastructure and linking them

440
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 6: into China's Belton Road initiative. So China has a lot

441
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 6: of interest that go against the grain here with Russia,

442
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 6: and it has been nice to Russia. It likes the

443
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 6: idea of weakening a Western land global economic order, and

444
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 6: they can instrumentalize Russia a little bit toward that goal.

445
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 6: But they really haven't been aligned with Russian militarily, and

446
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 6: calling them out on this is probably a good idea

447
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 6: because it will make them think twice about how visible

448
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 6: do we want to be doing this?

449
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 2: Yes, right, absolutely, I've only got a minute left, Ambassador.

450
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 2: What was your thought when you saw Vladimir Putin accepting

451
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 2: an invitation from President She to show up in Beijing?

452
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: An actual visit to Beijing? Is the unlimited friendship about

453
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 2: to find new heights?

454
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 6: It might have I viewed it more as a summons.

455
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 6: It's like, see me and tell me what your plan

456
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 6: is here.

457
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 2: Wow, it's great to speak with you always, Ambassador. Kurt Vulker,

458
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 2: the former US Special Representat for Ukrainey, was of course

459
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 2: US Ambassador to NATO, joining US from overseas. Thanks for

460
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 2: staying up with us and providing your insights, Kurt Vulker.

461
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

462
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern, Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app,

463
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app where there's non demand, wherever

464
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: you get your podcast.

465
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 2: To consider the situation in Ukraine now, as we were

466
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 2: discussing with Kurt Vulkar, the back and forth is really

467
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: heating up between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine attacking Russia inside

468
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,199
Speaker 2: of the country. Here in fact, that they hit a

469
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 2: town that borders Estonia and Latvia. Noteworthy, as I read

470
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 2: here on the terminal, as it's located about five hundred

471
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 2: miles north of Ukraine, we are stretching far beyond the

472
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 2: borders of the country. It's home to an elite Russian

473
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: paratroop unit apparently targeted, and Kiev felt the blowback from

474
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 2: Russia with the worst drone and missile attacks against the

475
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: capital that we've seen since spring. Let's reassemble our panel today.

476
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano joined Bloomberg Politics contributors having

477
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 2: heard from Kurt Volker. Rick, I wonder your thoughts today

478
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 2: on a war the counter offensive that is now three

479
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 2: months old and appears to be heating up all over again.

480
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:02,120
Speaker 2: Reaching into Russia is a controversial move. Will it actually

481
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 2: garner more support for this effort or make life more

482
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 2: difficult for President Zelensky.

483
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 5: Look, I think that it goes without saying that. The

484
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 5: more active the Ukrainians are in pushing back Russia, either

485
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 5: on the ground by getting them out of certain enclaves

486
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 5: within Ukraine or putting pressure on them in their homeland,

487
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 5: you know, through these drone attacks or other attacks, including

488
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 5: the occupied territories like Crimea, that helps the case in Washington,

489
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 5: That helps the case in the House of Representatives that

490
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 5: this isn't a quagmire and that there's still success on

491
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 5: the horizon and that Ukraine can can still pull us

492
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 5: out and push Russia out of their territory. So yeah,

493
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 5: I mean that all of these things matter. And now

494
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 5: we're getting to the point where some of these initiatives

495
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 5: are being pushed both on the Ukraine side and the

496
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 5: Russian side because they know that the winter's coming. And

497
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,919
Speaker 5: here we go all over again, our third winter in

498
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 5: this fight, and we're going to see probably people locking

499
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 5: up certain territory and waiting out the winter.

500
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 2: Genie. If we see Ukraine reaching beyond its borders like this,

501
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 2: and some would suggest that's the only way that it

502
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,919
Speaker 2: will be able to win this war. What does that

503
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 2: mean for support here in the US. There's been great

504
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 2: worry about creep. Republicans talk about this. Who at least,

505
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 2: I should say House Republicans who oppose the war effort

506
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: as one of the things they're worried about that this

507
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: is what could involve American troops if it's gone too far.

508
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: How do you see it?

509
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 4: You know, I think that is a real concern. And

510
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 4: anything that looks.

511
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 2: Like Jennie with us. Let's take a swing at that.

512
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 5: Rick, Yeah, I hear Jennie.

513
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: Hey, Jennie, Okay, yeah, I think that Genie. Sorry, go ahead,

514
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 2: I'm just not hearing you.

515
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 4: Sorry, Joe, Hi. Rick, No, you know, I was just

516
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 4: saying that anything that looks like creep and anything that

517
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 4: looks like stale is a bad sign for funding in Washington,

518
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 4: d C. And you know, I think it's been coming

519
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 4: on us to think about what one of the leading

520
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 4: contenders on that station in Milwaukee was saying last week.

521
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 4: But vek Ramaswami took I think one of the most radical,

522
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 4: unorthodox positions from a Republican perspective, I've ever heard in

523
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 4: saying that we should appease Vladimir Putin. We should give

524
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 4: him part of the Donbass, we should allow him to

525
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 4: keep Eastern Ukraine, and we should do that to woo

526
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 4: him away from China. And that vek Aramaswami doesn't say

527
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 4: things because he thinks them or because they make any sense.

528
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 4: He says them because he's pandering to the far right

529
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 4: of this Republican base. And there's an audience for that.

530
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 4: There's an audience there in the Republican Congress that is

531
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 4: going to make funding of this increasingly difficult if there

532
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 4: are any signs of creep or stalemate. And I agree

533
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: so much with what the ambassador was saying to you

534
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 4: about the need for the White House to make a

535
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 4: case for this, that it's in American interest, But I

536
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 4: would just add to that it's even more important that

537
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 4: case is made by the grown ups in the Republican

538
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 4: Party because the base of the Republican Party does not

539
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: listen to Joe Biden. They could care less what he says.

540
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 4: It needs to come from Republicans to make that case

541
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 4: as well.

542
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 2: This idea of Vladimir Putin warming up to the North Koreans.

543
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 2: Rick Volker probably said it best, the sign of desperation.

544
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 2: But look, if North Korea does in fact begin providing munitions,

545
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 2: even if it's old fashioned mortar rounds, I don't know

546
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: what else they would have in store, maybe missile technology.

547
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 2: To the extent that the ambassador mentioned this is a

548
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 2: new front. Do we have to worry about here?

549
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 5: Sure, they're just shopping for weapons, same things they did

550
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 5: in Iran when they were able to get Iranian drones

551
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 5: sent to Russia to attack the Ukrainians. I for one,

552
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 5: sure feel sorry for any Russian soldier who has to

553
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 5: light that first mortar round coming out of North Korea.

554
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, I mean I think you called

555
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 5: it right. Let the buyer beware here, caveat emptor maybe

556
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,160
Speaker 5: the best gift that the North Koreans could give to

557
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 5: Ukraine in the war. So uh yeah, I mean it's

558
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 5: a it's a level of desperation. I mean they are running,

559
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 5: as we know, they've overused the amount of equipment they've got.

560
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,719
Speaker 5: I mean, you think about how much it's stressed our

561
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 5: stockpiles just shipping what we've done to Ukraine and the

562
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 5: Russian war machine has been hobbled by sanctions and inability

563
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 5: to get materials, you know, as as a result of

564
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 5: those sanctions. So look, I think that just means we

565
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 5: got to start paying attention to North Korea again and

566
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 5: start putting heat on both Russia and North Korea. I mean, honestly,

567
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 5: I think we've kind of taken our foot off the

568
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 5: accelerator when it comes to sanctions, secondary sanctions, and and

569
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 5: and I think this administration has got the tools to

570
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 5: do it and support in Congress to to to level those.

571
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 2: Well, now that's its term, genie. I have not heard

572
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: in a while secondary sanctions. Is there a stomach for

573
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,040
Speaker 2: that in Washington if we're concerned about even funding the

574
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 2: war effort?

575
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think there is a stomach for it.

576
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: I also think you need to make a case for

577
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 4: it that people can understand, because that is what I

578
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 4: think is really missing here. And it is that case

579
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 4: that has not been made. You know, it wasn't just

580
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 4: a few days ago we had Bricks meeting and then

581
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 4: inviting six new nations to join them. They are going

582
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 4: to confront the West. It is in our interest not

583
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 4: to you know, step away from and defy our allies

584
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 4: like those people in the Ukraine who we have long

585
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 4: stood with, and part of that is funding and making

586
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 4: sure this is a successful effort over there. But you

587
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 4: have to do that at home, and you have to

588
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 4: make that case here. And that is what is completely missing,

589
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 4: and it's quite apart from the twenty four campaign because

590
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 4: people won't vote on it.

591
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: Well that's a great point. And I guess question for you, Rick,

592
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: so what extent will the war in Ukraine actually be

593
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 2: a factor in this campaign. We saw the candidate's wigh

594
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 2: in on this in was a fairly policy heavy debate

595
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 2: last week on the stage in Milwaukee. But once this

596
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 2: comes down to tour, are we really arguing about Ukraine?

597
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: Maybe we are.

598
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 5: You tell me, you know, the one guy we wanted

599
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 5: to hear from was you know, President Trump, and he

600
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 5: wasn't on the stage. I don't think it matters what

601
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 5: Ramaswami thinks. I thought it helped Nicki Haley to make

602
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 5: such an articulate pitch for why it matters to support Ukraine.

603
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: And and and yet.

604
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 5: You know, look, we have this divide in the Republican

605
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 5: Party is being driven by people who aren't even Republican.

606
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 5: Look at the Tucker Carlson influence. In last week, he

607
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 5: takes Trump out of the debate and interviews him, which

608
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 5: I'm still trying to figure out what that thing was.

609
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 5: But let's say they ate up an hour of you

610
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 5: know X time to do it, and then he flies

611
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 5: off to Victor Oorbon where he can run down liberal democracies,

612
00:32:55,240 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 5: things like freedom, things like you know, a democracy, and

613
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 5: and and talk about how the Ukrainians just sort to

614
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 5: throw it in. So, like, you know, I think that

615
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 5: Republicans need to start getting straight, and so does Donald Trump.

616
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 5: That that if this country's gonna be run by Tucker Carlson,

617
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 5: we've got a much bigger problem than domestic politics.

618
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 2: Not a shocker to see him sit down with Victor Orbon.

619
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: I guess they're pals, Genie. I wasn't gonna go there

620
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: with you, but Rick brought it up here. Victor Orbon

621
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,600
Speaker 2: says the West should make a deal with Vladimir Putin.

622
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's the news or if maybe

623
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 2: he's preparing his speech for seapack next year.

624
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Tucker Carlson is also trying to get Putin

625
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 4: on the screen with him. Yeah, right, Well, see if

626
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 4: that occurs listen.

627
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 2: You know that that would be quite the bromance, wouldn't it.

628
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it really would. Maybe they can go shirtless

629
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 4: together and fight bears. I don't know, but you know,

630
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 4: here's here's the thing, is that this the Republican Party

631
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 4: from a foreign policy perspective. We are seeing such a

632
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 4: divide there and the people who are pulling in the

633
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 4: numbers at this point is this new really radical right

634
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 4: wing populist idea. And so while I too wish that

635
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 4: the vek Ramaswami and quite frankly Donald Trump stands on

636
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 4: these issues didn't matter. They matter to the base that

637
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 4: will decide the nominee of the party. The George Bush

638
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 4: conservative wing old style seems to be gone. I mean,

639
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,479
Speaker 4: Chris Christy, Mike Pence, they're up there. I thought Nicky

640
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 4: Hilly did a brilliant job, but it is not resonating

641
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 4: with the base. And they're running in the primary right now,

642
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 4: not the general election. And this is a problem not

643
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 4: just for this party but for the entire country, and

644
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 4: the leaders of the party need to step up and

645
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 4: set this straight. But it has not happened yet.

646
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.

647
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

648
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,279
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

649
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,680
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650
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,640
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651
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

652
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 2: We have the voice of Rock longs now the executive

653
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 2: chairman of Hagridy Consulting, but he was not that long ago,

654
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 2: the administrator of FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency that

655
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: is in the throes of dealing with this storm and

656
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 2: the situation in Hawaii and what will likely be a

657
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 2: very large supplemental funding request. Brock Long, welcome back to Bloomberg.

658
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 2: It's good to have you. Do agree with with Brian's

659
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 2: take here. This could have been a lot worse for Florida.

660
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 7: Well, I think the worst case scenario would have been

661
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 7: a would have been this if this event had gone

662
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 7: into the Tampa and Penelas County. You know, I think

663
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 7: that the citizens living in and around that area should

664
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 7: be very aware that they got missed by this storm.

665
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 7: It went in pretty far to the north, but they

666
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 7: still got four to six feet of storm surch so

667
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 7: imagine what would happen if it was a direct hit.

668
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 7: But the most important thing is this storm is definitely

669
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 7: not over, and Adelia, there is a reminder that not

670
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,200
Speaker 7: all storms are coastal events. While we're worried about storm

671
00:35:56,239 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 7: surge and storm search has the highest potential to kill

672
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 7: the most amount of people and calls the most amount

673
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 7: of damage. This system is trucking through at twenty miles

674
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 7: an hour through south south south South Georgia, headed up

675
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 7: towards South Carolina, North Carolina, and with that, anybody that

676
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 7: is living near where the center of circulation is going

677
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 7: to pass is going to experience hurricane force winds. And

678
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 7: I worry about the construction standards of some of the

679
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 7: homes in some of these south like South Georgia, South Carolina,

680
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 7: and some of these areas. They're going to see a

681
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 7: tremendous damage inland. And it's definitely not over. This is

682
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 7: going to be a pretty sizable event for FEMA.

683
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 2: So we're not out of the woods yet literally as

684
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: this heads inland to Georgia. The other problem I'm sure

685
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 2: brought is that these people were not told to evacuate

686
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:47,280
Speaker 2: like those on the coast were warned repeatedly by officials

687
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:47,760
Speaker 2: in Florida.

688
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, so the main reason that we issue evacuations in

689
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 7: the emergency management arena is again for storm surge. Right, So,

690
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 7: while storms are classified by wind intensity, the storm surge

691
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 7: again has the highest potential to cause the most amount

692
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 7: of deaths. And in this case, sixteen feet of storm

693
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 7: surge coming into the Florida Panhandle, and that doesn't include

694
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 7: another three to six feet of breaking waves on top

695
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:15,959
Speaker 7: obviously swallows people up. And I've always said that storm

696
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,439
Speaker 7: surge is the unforgivable hazard associate with hurricanes. Very few

697
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 7: people live to tell about what their experience was like

698
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 7: going through through storm surge when it moves inland. You know,

699
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 7: the goal is if you're not in if you're not

700
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 7: in a facility that can withstand hurricane force winds, then

701
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 7: you don't have to go very far. But you can

702
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 7: shelter in place, and other homes or other facilities that

703
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 7: may be opened by local officials that can withstand the

704
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,359
Speaker 7: winds that are built to a higher standard. Florida's done

705
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 7: a great job with building codes. Other states, you know,

706
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 7: could step up their standards, you know, to make sure

707
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 7: that in the future we reduce the impacts of these things.

708
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 7: But that's what we're looking at right now.

709
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 2: A lot of folks and watching Governor Ron DeSantis closely.

710
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 2: He's no stranger to storms, remembering I believe it was

711
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 2: Ida last year that we saw him deal with. But

712
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 2: he's come off the campaign trail to manage it. Is

713
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 2: that necessary for the governor of a state to make

714
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: that effort? Does he actually need to be there or

715
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 2: could he have orchestrated this from somewhere else?

716
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 7: No, absolutely, governor's you know, all disasters are locally executed,

717
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:31,000
Speaker 7: state managed, and federally supported. So it's not FEMA's disaster.

718
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 7: FEMA's you know, while it's looked at is nine one one,

719
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 7: it really isn't. FEMA is designed to support a governor's

720
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 7: actions when it comes to events like this. You know,

721
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 7: FEMA again is there to fill a you know, to

722
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 7: help state governments overcome any gaps, or to support major

723
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 7: missions like search and rescue and debris removal, those types

724
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:56,280
Speaker 7: of things. But the governor being there and taking charge

725
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 7: is exactly what the governor should, any governor should be

726
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 7: doing and putting forth their command and control. They are

727
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 7: the chief executive for their state. When lives are in

728
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 7: danger and when lives are going to be you know,

729
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 7: altered as a result of this, they need to be

730
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 7: you know, front and center. And that's what that's what

731
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 7: you're seeing.

732
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 2: I guess we're going to add Brian Kemp to that

733
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 2: list as well if he's dealing with some damage in Georgia. Brocklong,

734
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 2: there's a big conversation about funding here in Washington. I'm

735
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 2: sure you're well aware of it. The Biden administration will

736
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 2: likely have to make a pretty major request for supplemental

737
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: funding to handle what's happened in Hawaii, of course, now

738
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,919
Speaker 2: in Florida and the southeast and what might come next.

739
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: The line that we've been hearing is just, you know,

740
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 2: one hurricane could make the difference, and we've had a

741
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 2: couple of events here. Does this look like the right

742
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,439
Speaker 2: amount that FEMA needs in terms of resources that that's

743
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 2: coming from the White.

744
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 7: House regardless of this current hurricane, FEMA needs the funding

745
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 7: and what you know, most citizens have no idea how

746
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 7: busy FEMA is from day to day. And right now,

747
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:06,000
Speaker 7: FEMA has twenty three joint field offices spread across this country.

748
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 7: Some are physical, summer virtual, but They're working over seventy

749
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 7: five different disaster declaration requests that are currently open across

750
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 7: It's not just Maui, It's not just this this current hurricane.

751
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 7: Seventy five different disasters are going to be impacted by

752
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 7: the lack of recovery dollars. And what FEMA has to

753
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 7: do with the Disaster Relief Fund is they have to

754
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 7: estimate by each quarter fiscal quarter, they have to estimate

755
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 7: how much money is likely going to go out and

756
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:36,840
Speaker 7: be obligated on behalf of local communities and state governments

757
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 7: to help them affect the long term recovery, which takes years.

758
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 7: And if I read the disaster you know, the Disaster

759
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 7: Relief Funding report that they put out most recently, they

760
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 7: estimated over two billion dollars was going to be needed

761
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 7: to you know, administer the recovery to the recovery needs

762
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,920
Speaker 7: at these local levels. And that was before Maui, the

763
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 7: Maui wildfires, and this new hurricane. So Congress is got

764
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 7: to step up. They need to pass a clean supplemental

765
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 7: and get the funding to Dean chris Well, the administrator

766
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 7: of FEMA, and give her all the tools she needs

767
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 7: in her toolbox that are necessary to handle not just

768
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 7: this event, but all the events.

769
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 2: I'm sure you worry about ideas of this getting bogged down,

770
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: and it could. The White House needs money for a

771
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 2: lot of things. The government has to be funded. You've

772
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: got a war in Ukraine. Is this something that should

773
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 2: be handled as a standalone issue or you worry that

774
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 2: it gets bogged down into a lot of other things.

775
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:30,480
Speaker 2: I know you're not a political analyst brought I don't

776
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: want to make you one, but you do know the

777
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 2: resources that FEMA needs well.

778
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 7: I've always thought that the you know, the future of

779
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 7: FEMA should be one that's politically neutral, that should not

780
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 7: be a political animal by any means or be brought

781
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 7: into politics. I mean, we're talking about people's lives and

782
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 7: the viability of communities before, during, and after disasters. Soul

783
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 7: I would hope that we could find another way to

784
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 7: work out other issues, whether it's Ukraine or other funding

785
00:41:56,600 --> 00:42:00,319
Speaker 7: that's on the periphery of this DRF funding. Get the

786
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 7: money in the coffers and you know, help help FEMA out.

787
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,120
Speaker 7: Because what happens is is that FEMIS had to move

788
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,720
Speaker 7: to immediate needs funding, which means that the only money

789
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 7: going out FEMIS doors right now is dedicated to life

790
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 7: safety and life sustaining missions. So all of the communities

791
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 7: over the past couple of years that have been through

792
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 7: you know, disasters like Hurricane Michael, Hurricane E and Hurricane Irma,

793
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,720
Speaker 7: you know all of these other hurricanes that have occurred

794
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 7: in Florida, for example, the long term recovery dollars come

795
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 7: to a screeching halt and it backs up projects, you know,

796
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 7: major infrastructure projects or you know, different things that need

797
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 7: to be done to help a community fully recover or

798
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 7: become more resilient for the next event. And that's what's

799
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 7: going on here. So again, I mean, I think it's

800
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 7: got to be a clean, clean supplemental get it done,

801
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 7: get d M the money she needs. But there does

802
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 7: need to be a greater conversation about the future of

803
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:59,399
Speaker 7: emergency management and the way that we do disaster decorations.

804
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 7: I don't belie that the current system incentivizes proper land

805
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 7: use planning states that implement stronger building codes or properly

806
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 7: ensure their their public infrastructure which we all depend on.

807
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,919
Speaker 2: We haven't talked about California in some time. Was what

808
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 2: the week two weeks ago we were looking at historic

809
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 2: flooding in Palm Springs Brock. There's an element of this story,

810
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:25,440
Speaker 2: and I don't have a lot of people want to

811
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 2: talk about it. Not everybody does, at least involving climate change.

812
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 2: And I wonder your thoughts on this if this is

813
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 2: going to become more severe in areas not used to

814
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 2: this type of weather every year as we go forward.

815
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 4: Yeah.

816
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 7: So, so there's a couple of things that are taking

817
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 7: place here. I mean, you know, I believe in a

818
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 7: client in a changing climate. I also believe in climate variabilities.

819
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,280
Speaker 7: There are different cycles that impact the severity of disasters

820
00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 7: or the frequency of disasters, such as thermal haline circulation

821
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 7: or al Nino or La Nina. And you know, it's

822
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 7: a changing climate coupled with climate variability, coupled with we

823
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 7: got a lot of people living in vulnerable areas, and

824
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:05,399
Speaker 7: you know, with a lack of building codes, a lack

825
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 7: of land news planning. And so it's a culmination of

826
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 7: manufactors that is playing a part here as to why

827
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 7: disasters are getting worse. And for any citizen in the

828
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 7: United States, you know, the last place you need to

829
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 7: cut back on expenses is ensuring your homes and insurance

830
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 7: is the first line of defense. And I know that

831
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 7: there's a big debate there, you know, with insurance companies

832
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 7: pulling out of certain parts of California or Florida. But

833
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 7: Congress is going to have to work with the private

834
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 7: sector to be able to understand how you keep these

835
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 7: insurance industry there. But it's also there's work that's got

836
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 7: to be done by our legislators to increase the performance

837
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 7: capability of our communities. And until that happens, strap your

838
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 7: seatbelt on. Continue to see these disasters get worse and

839
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 7: worse every year.

840
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 2: How much do you worry about what you just referred

841
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 2: to its state farm and all state both pulling out

842
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 2: of a place like California. What's a homeowner supposed to do?

843
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 7: I do worry about the vulnerability that many homeowners are

844
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 7: facing and repetitive loss areas and different things. People that

845
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 7: can't get that can't get insurance because again, it is

846
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 7: their first line of defense. And when you have home

847
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 7: you know, homeowners or families that lose everything and are

848
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 7: uninsured or under insured, their credit spirals out of control.

849
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 7: After that, it is very hard to overcome that. And

850
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 7: you know, I don't know what all the answers are

851
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 7: when it comes to the insurance industries and what it

852
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 7: takes to keep them there. But I do think that

853
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 7: you know, there has got to be some serious sit

854
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 7: down meetings between FEMA, Congress, the insurance industry, code officials,

855
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 7: Landy's planning officials to say what is the right balance

856
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 7: here as we're facing new extremes.

857
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 2: Great conversation brought long, great insights, and I thank you

858
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,319
Speaker 2: for them now at Hagridy Consulting is the former administrator

859
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 2: of FEMA in a conversation you'll only hear on Bloomberg Radio.

860
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,399
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure

861
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

862
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:15,879
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863
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:19,000
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864
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,680
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