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This is 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:24.320 a paid advertisement. 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:29.160 Check it out Man. 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:33.800 Thursday Morning, November twenty first, twenty twenty four, and is 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:38.800 the Beating the Book podcast Megapod Megapod for week twelve 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:42.680 in the National What All League, It's Gill Alexander. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:46.000 Thank you for listening. I am now back to being 0:00:46.040 --> 0:00:49.200 only a half game behind Todd. The inevitable is about 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:52.280 to We all know it, we all feel it. Todd 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:56.440 chief among those people feel Todd Wishnev from his mom's 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:58.880 cork attic at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, joined us as always, how 0:00:58.880 --> 0:00:59.800 you doing, Totty. 0:01:00.720 --> 0:01:01.680 I don't feel it. 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:06.880 At t wish Nev on Twitter, He's busy. Let me 0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:08.880 just say this, let me just point this out. Todd 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:12.759 is mainly concerned with betting in game college basketball. Right now, 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:14.520 we'll try to see if we can get some of 0:01:14.560 --> 0:01:18.399 his attentions. He is the star of a Showtimes docuseries 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:22.200 Action one of the stars looking for another documentary to 0:01:22.240 --> 0:01:22.480 be it. 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:23.800 I think that's what he's acting. 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:26.720 And then Will Hill at not the Will Hill, by 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:28.240 the way, Todd is at tea wish New I say 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:30.440 that Will Hill at not V. Will Hill the host 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.960 of the Should Have bet More podcasts three times a week, 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:37.800 available where all your podcasts are distributed. Will also part 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:41.400 of Chris Filica's Bare Best podcast at Fox Sports. You 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:43.520 don't Willie, What's going on? 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:45.760 Yeah, we're we're trying not to get too much out 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.160 of Todd with this podcast because he's been cooking pretty 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:50.960 much in college basket. It's almost like you guys ever 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:52.960 watched Breaking Bad when they're trying to get Walter White 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:55.200 to cook. We just need to like get him in 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:57.800 his environment, let him do his thing, just kind. 0:01:57.600 --> 0:01:59.840 Of let the genius work. Till last night when I 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:03.559 couldn't pick one single game if my have my life 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:05.880 depended on it, I was horrible, But we did get 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:08.320 the winner. This morning with James Madison a U. 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:12.040 I see, wait a minute, what do you mean we 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:13.920 got the winner? We got destroyed in that. What are 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:14.639 you talking about? 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:16.480 We won? What are you talking about? 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.079 Madison's first half under pre flop. 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:24.440 And the game and he won. 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:26.080 I played over end game. 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:29.119 Oh that was a Willie pick. You know what I did? 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.360 Todd on air on a Numbers game. I said it 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:32.200 was a U pick. 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:39.840 You apologize for that. I will, okay. 0:02:40.560 --> 0:02:43.120 I aggregated it from like these first half unders in 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:43.480 early game. 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:45.840 So I'm gonna I'm gonna pull a f aggregation card. 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:49.360 Uh our guest, our rotating guest on the show today. 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:53.000 He has made this an annual uh mitzvah of his 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.360 on the show to come on the Megapod. He joins 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.880 me on a Numbers game every quarter. He's kind enough 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:01.760 to do that. We have done this podcast for over 0:03:01.840 --> 0:03:04.720 a decade. We have done this, but we haven't done 0:03:04.720 --> 0:03:07.520 the megapod for over a decade. He is correct about that. 0:03:07.560 --> 0:03:09.680 We've only done the megapod for about three years. I 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:12.359 think this is the third. It is the great Aaron Shots. 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:17.400 He is the creator of DVOA, the most granular play 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:22.320 by play NFL statistic You can find, which has analyzed 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:25.520 every single National Football League play all the way back 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:29.880 dating to nineteen hundred and seventy nine. Defense value over adjusted. 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.920 Aaron joins us now he works at FTN Sports. How 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:33.560 you doing, Aaron? 0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:39.560 Know nothing about college basketball? I know nothing nothing about 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:40.480 college basketball. 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:42.680 Todd said, do you have any opinions on Drake? And 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:47.360 you were like, Drake may No, Drake from where is Drake? Indiana? 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.040 My brother from Toronto. 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:57.920 That's right, he's one of our our miss bucher from Toronto, Toronto. Yeah, 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.160 that's right. Drake had a bar mitzvatad. Did you know 0:04:01.200 --> 0:04:03.320 that Drake hena bar mitsvatad? Were you aware of this? 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:04.720 God? Who did? 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:09.040 God is never mind? Okay, by the way, Erin, I 0:04:09.080 --> 0:04:10.760 just want to before we get into the show here, 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:14.360 I just want to say I'm always fascinated by these 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:18.839 things through ten weeks of the NFL season, because obviously 0:04:18.880 --> 0:04:20.840 there's buys in Baldo. I know we're in week twelve, 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:23.640 but through ten games, let me be clear, games ten 0:04:23.680 --> 0:04:27.159 games of the NFL season. Correct me if I'm wrong, 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.080 but I believe I saw this that in your historical 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:34.680 through ten games DBA numbers, you famously have the two 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:39.880 thousand and seven Patriots one, the nineteen ninety one Washington 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:44.680 Redskins number two, and the twenty twenty four Lions number three. 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:46.120 Is this correct? 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:49.880 It's remarkable? But yeah, despite those couple of games where 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:53.680 the opponent had more yards than them on an efficiency basis, 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:57.960 they've just been ridiculous this year. Number two in offense, 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:01.480 number two in defense, and number one one in special teams. 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:04.280 My numbers love the Lions this year. 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:07.359 And I always ask you this as a follow up 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:11.400 to these kinds of questions. Removing Aaron Shots the analytics 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:15.320 guy and talking to Aaron Shots the football viewer. Now, 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:17.480 does it sort of check out for you with the 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:18.000 eye test? 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:21.400 Yeah, I mean they're doing everything well. What doesn't check 0:05:21.440 --> 0:05:25.200 out is you keep waiting for the game we're not 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:30.159 having Hutchinson really hurts, right, we keep waiting for the 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:33.960 opponent where it really matters that Hutchinson is not healthy. 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:36.400 But I don't know when it's coming. 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:43.080 Yeah, I wonder, I wonder you're. 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:45.400 Also hurt now, right? Gilly, isn't the middle Anzeloni or 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.560 somebody isn't he Aloney's. 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:47.679 Out for a few weeks. 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:52.200 Also, Yeah, yeah, I just wonder like Will is wearing 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:56.039 his Vikings purple today. The Vikings are one game behind them, 0:05:56.480 --> 0:05:58.479 as are in the in the division, as are the 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:02.320 Eagles in the conference. And I just wonder, like, okay, 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:06.680 third greatest of all time, and yet they still might 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:09.520 not get the number one seed, right, still might not? 0:06:09.760 --> 0:06:13.360 And then then this looing specter of Jared Goff on 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:16.800 the road in January, is that in the back of 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:21.000 your mind still doesn't doesn't. 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:24.960 The specter, the flip spector is Jared Goff in New 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:30.599 Orleans in February. Indoors baby, Oh, good point, good point? 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:33.719 All right, Before we get to our best bets, we 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:36.880 always start with by the way I love I love 0:06:37.520 --> 0:06:40.240 historical DVOA. And if you're looking for. 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:42.839 Point out, by the way I bet I put this morning, 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.760 I actually put my down this morning. I put down 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:50.040 on the Eagles plus four hundred to lose the NFC 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:50.920 Championship game. 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:52.000 That's a fun one. 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:55.719 Where is that it was on DraftKings. Oh, I like 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:59.280 that with the il the Lions are the best team 0:06:59.279 --> 0:07:03.039 in the conference, but the Eagles are the second best team. 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:06.760 I mentioned on the Bear Pod that I've seen these 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:08.240 in the past, but I haven't seen them once the 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:11.480 season started, like conference title game exactly as where we 0:07:11.760 --> 0:07:14.120 have to pick both teams. I know it's square at 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:15.920 Chalky and it's the NFL, anything can happen. I have 0:07:15.920 --> 0:07:18.720 a hard time seeing past an Eagles Lions NFC title 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:19.840 game obviously. 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:22.240 Yeah, I mean there's like all kinds of possibilities, but 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.240 to me, that seemed like a good a good bet. 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:29.400 At this point I started, I started putting together super 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.880 Bowl matchups. Again, not exactly, it's just teams to meet 0:07:31.920 --> 0:07:35.400 in the Super Bowl. My first two bets are Lions 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:40.480 are are are Chalky Lions Chiefs six to one, Lions 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:44.560 Ravens nine to one. Yeah, no, I'm right there with you, man, 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:47.760 right there with you. Before we get into the best bets, 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:51.280 mister wishnev Our records on the season, sir as. The 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:53.480 courts stenographer of the podcast. 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:58.760 Are Gilly and Willy had good weeks last week, Gilly 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:02.640 going two and one one. The only mistake was his 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:07.360 little commanders taking what they call the proverbial deuce in 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:11.160 the pants in the fourth quarter and blowing the plus four, 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:14.400 and so he went two and one. He goes to 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.960 seventeen fifteen and one with a nice little comeback there, 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:21.200 and his teaser lost again. Somehow he is now two 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:25.640 eight and one when Kansas City, well, actually both sides lost, 0:08:25.680 --> 0:08:29.480 but that Kansas City Josh Allen nonsense. So Willy had 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:31.760 an outstanding week. And if you guys remember when I 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.320 told you that when Willy was down, he's probably gonna 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:36.520 have a nice little comeback run, and he is having 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:40.880 that comeback run with a three and ozh not even close. 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:44.040 Had the Eagles on that the Ravens under easy in 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:49.080 the Denver easy. Unfortunately, he took another teaser loss when 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:51.840 Josh Allen rolled to the right on fourth and two. 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:55.520 Even though Gil Alexander always predicts on our text that 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:58.599 Josh Allen on fourth and two will run the ball, somehow, 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:04.720 some way, Steve Spagnola doesn't know that maybe Josh Allen 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:07.960 may tuck the ball and run. And he's still running 0:09:08.000 --> 0:09:12.120 today for a nine point teaser blessed up. So you guys, 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:13.240 did you did you catch? 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:15.920 Did you catch? The Jim Nance? Right after that play 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:18.880 goes the best NFL the greatest NFL play of the season, 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:21.960 and out loud alone in my apartment, I go, really, Jim, 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.760 the best and he then immediately responds on air, he goes, 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:28.079 what I mean by that is he qualifies it. 0:09:28.800 --> 0:09:33.320 It's so great, all right, now now you do so? 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:36.160 Willie goes fifth, goes to fifteen seventeen and one, an 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.800 excellent comeback. He's three six and two on his teezers. 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:43.640 I unfortunately went one and two when the Texans back 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:46.080 doored me on the on that total. So I am 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:48.920 now eighteen and fifteen, so things are tightening up. I 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.960 won my teaser again, so I have made a full 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:55.680 recovery on teasers to six and five. The guests Brent 0:09:55.760 --> 0:10:02.000 Musberger went two and one, and that moves the guest 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.880 to sixteen sixteen and one, and their teasers are also 0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:07.520 six and five. So that's where we are as we 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:11.120 start the week. Billy and Willy breathing. 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:15.439 You're you're eighteen and fifteen? What am I? 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:20.000 You're seventeen fifteen and one a half game back? And 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:25.200 Willy is fifteen seventeen and one not two four backs? 0:10:25.240 --> 0:10:25.600 All right? 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:28.640 Okay, did hardly get home? Did that? 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:29.319 Did we count that? 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:29.640 Or no? 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:33.640 The touchdown parlay of the Frank did break the touchdown. 0:10:33.280 --> 0:10:37.120 Partly that he gave up. Yeah, we didn't count that. Okay, 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:37.880 what is it? 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:39.360 What is the guest chair? What's the record for the 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:39.800 guest chair? 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:43.880 The guest chair is now sixteen, sixteen and one and 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:46.600 six and five. Onto this one we are, and I'd 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:50.000 like to ask Aaron about I'd like to ask Aaron 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:52.679 Shotts about my dummy of the week. And it's going 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:54.760 to be a guy you might have heard of name 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:58.760 Jane Campbell. I go on commercials and I say you 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:02.520 should eat Applebee's wing endlessly. And you know what, I 0:11:02.559 --> 0:11:06.079 am the best at making speeches in the locker room afterwards. 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:10.760 Now here's my question, Aaron. If Willie Hill gives you 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:13.319 under twenty nine and under twenty eight and a half 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.839 attempts for Jared goff right, and you look at the 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:19.280 game log and you see every time they win big, 0:11:19.360 --> 0:11:21.960 he doesn't throw the ball a lot. So you tell 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.199 will Hill. You say, will that's a great bet. I'm 0:11:24.200 --> 0:11:26.400 going to bet that under twenty eight and a half attempts. 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:28.240 So you do bet the under twenty eight and a 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:30.600 half temps. Now you're watching a National Football League game, 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.560 and Aaron, you watch a lot of National Football League games. 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.640 Have you ever seen a football team at thirty five 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:39.800 to six throwing on first down. Now I ask you 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:42.400 another question. Have you ever seen a team up forty 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:47.240 two to six in the fourth fink quarter throwing the 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:55.400 ball first down the game England? Right, okay, but still 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:59.720 forty two to six and they're throwing the ball in 0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:02.240 the fourth quarter. Now here's why I make Dan Gamble 0:12:02.280 --> 0:12:04.920 the Dumbo of the week. What if Jared Goff on 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.480 one of those throws gets his head torn off and 0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:09.960 he's out for the season and I was rooting for 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:12.360 I never root for injuries because I'm a good person, 0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.199 But on this case, I rooted for an injury because 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:19.040 those people are assholes. Why are you throwing the ball 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:20.560 up forty two to six? 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.280 And you led him answer the question, and you let 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:23.720 him answer. 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.520 You can remember the two thousand and seven Patriots. 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.280 Wait, I want to tell him before he answers that 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:32.560 we lost because twenty nine throws instead of twenty eight 0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:35.320 and a half attempts under Now, please answer. 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:40.000 Remember the two thousand and seven Patriots. Yes, this is 0:12:40.080 --> 0:12:42.160 not the first team that threw the ball with big 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:44.160 leads in the fourth quarter. And this is not the 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:46.680 first team where fans looked at the TV and went, 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:49.240 why are you not pulling the quarterback to make sure 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.199 he doesn't get injured? It happens more. 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.800 Than you think. Six, Aaron forty two six. 0:12:56.559 --> 0:13:00.280 Do you remember the two thousand and seven Patriots to 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:00.800 go back to. 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:02.360 Look at it right now because you said it, I'm 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.320 going to go look and see if they was throwing them. 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.880 From fans of other teams constantly complaining, why are the 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:10.600 Patriots passed in the fourth quarter? 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:12.959 Why is right after the flight they were trying to 0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:13.680 run up the score? 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:14.720 Yeah? 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:18.920 Was that the year, hold on, let's someone you. Was 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.880 that the year that Joe Gibbs two point zero got 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:25.600 crushed by Belichick And in a similar type of score, 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.360 Belichick just kept pouring on points. And as a Washington 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:33.800 Skins fan, as a Washington Skins van, we were unbelievably 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:38.439 offended that Bill Belichick, supposed historian of the game, would 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:43.040 do this to a coach of whose jockstrap Bill Belichick 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:43.920 could never hold. 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:48.800 Sorry because I know they played the Cowboys that year, 0:13:48.880 --> 0:13:50.719 so they probably played Washington too. 0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:55.320 Yeah, they ran it up. I'm looking at the box score. 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:56.480 It was only fifty two to seven. 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:02.280 By a way, will I will stand by that I 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.280 know you that's hard if you if you gave Joe 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.160 Jackson Gibbs, Tom Brady, he would have won. Let me 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:12.040 do the math. Twenty seven Super but. 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.920 Brady threw one touchdown pass their first Super Bowl run. 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:17.559 Brady won the final Super Bowl, like thirteen to three. 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.720 Brady wants Belichick won Super Bowls with the Giants. I 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.240 don't think it's fair to just because we dide guilty 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:28.080 of it too, Like all he did was half. 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:29.840 All he did was have Drew. 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:31.200 Brees, and you know he's not a good coach. He's 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:32.440 turned out to be a good coach. I don't think 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:32.840 it's fair. 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:36.880 Joe Gibbs the greatest of all time. I will die 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:37.080 on this. 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:39.440 What about Barry Lamar Bonds not. 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:43.480 As good a coach? Okay, I will give another just 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:45.800 because we have another candidate besides Dan Campbell, because it 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:47.320 is tough to give someone dumb over the week in 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.320 a fifty two to six game. What do we feel 0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:55.560 about the great Matt Eberflus, who sort of lotly gagged 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:59.400 that last drive for the Bears against the Packers. All 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:01.360 the Bears need was a field goal to win. Caleb 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.640 Williams had a great game at a great final drive 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:07.360 for it down conversion to a dunze than another one 0:15:07.400 --> 0:15:09.520 to a dunzae. They matriculate the ball down the field. 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:14.000 They end up with a lengthy forty almost fifty, but 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:15.920 it was less than fifty yard field goal, about forty 0:15:15.920 --> 0:15:18.600 seven yard I believe it was. But they had an 0:15:18.640 --> 0:15:22.400 extra thirty seconds or so to run an additional play. 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.920 They chose not to, and after the game Eberflus was like, yeah, 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:29.200 we were good. I think it's an exact quote. We 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.960 know what happens. Cairo Santos gets his field goal blocked. 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:34.480 That's not to say that he wouldn't have gotten it 0:15:34.520 --> 0:15:37.240 blocked from twenty seven. Maybe he would have. Do we 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:39.680 have a problem with that? Who's the worst Dumbo of 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:43.360 the week? Campbell for doing what he did or Eberflus 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:44.920 for just saying I will settle it. 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.880 I would go with Eberflus because this is a problem 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:50.880 that a lot of coaches in the NFL have, is 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.640 this belief that field goal range is some kind of 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:58.440 binary where when you pass a certain yard line, now 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:01.120 you're in field goal range. That's it. We're done, Like, 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:02.200 that's not how it works. 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:06.040 It's such a good point too, because remember earlier in 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:07.800 the year and this is not this is an armchair 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:10.960 quarterback because I said it at the time the Chiefs 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:13.000 won a game. I want to say it was against. 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:14.560 The Chargers against the Bengals. 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.600 Was the Bengals where Andy Reid was just like, yeah, Harrison, 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.600 butker fifty one yards, it's fine, we'll win. And he 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:23.680 kicked it and he made it and they won and 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.200 nobody said a word. And I'm like, wow, have we 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.760 gotten to the point where we're just like nonchalantly kicking 0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:32.520 fifty one yarders to win a game? And we were 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:34.360 at the beginning of the season because nobody was missing, 0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:35.720 and then all of a sudden yesterday it's like the 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.800 field goal button got turned off and no one was 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:43.760 making anything. There was that one sequence where Hopkins missed 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.520 two chip shots at the same time Joshua Cardi missed 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.680 a chip shot when same chip shots like shorter than 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:51.000 thirty yards twenty. 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:51.480 Four or something. 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.880 Card Yeah, yeah, that was amazing, both of them. Incredible. 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.520 So you would vote forever flu So I think Todd 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:00.520 is going to stand on the Dan camp both of 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:01.000 the weekend. 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:02.960 Well here's why I'm going to because I just pulled 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.040 up an NFL reference and I went back to a 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.879 game where the Patriots won fifty six to ten in 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.600 two thousand and six. In two thousand and seven, which 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.280 is a similar to scenario. And guess who was in 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:16.280 the game in the fourth quarter Matt Castle handing off 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:20.280 to Heath Evans, not Thomas Brady. Sure, late third quarter, 0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:22.959 who was still in but not Thomas Brady. It was 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:25.120 a guy named Matt Castle who was in the game 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:25.760 in fifty six. 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:29.560 You know they did so, Brian Hendon Hooker, Yes, they 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:30.040 did bring that. 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:34.239 Finally, finally after when they got the ball back with 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:36.280 like five minutes left in the game. I'm saying that 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:38.000 the starting quarterback you should not. 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:40.399 Be Campbell does not know what the over under on 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:42.119 Jared goff passes. 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.080 I didn't say he was parent I say. I did 0:17:46.119 --> 0:17:48.760 not say he knows. I just said he's an asshole, 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:51.200 That's all. I didn't say he knows. 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:53.600 Todd, you asked Aaron the question, he gave you a 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.600 very correct historical answer, and you're just you choose to 0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:57.119 you know. 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:00.800 No, all I'm saying is I'm looking at a reference 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.480 and it shows that that Tom Brady was out of 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:05.800 the game in the fourth quarter. That's all. But I 0:18:05.600 --> 0:18:08.480 allows point that they did one second up. Take his 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.119 point that they did run it up, and I agree 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:12.720 with him that they ran it up. But there's a 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:15.240 difference between running it up and what Dan Campbell did 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:18.280 forty two to six is beyond running it up. That's 0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:20.160 called like insanity. 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:23.560 Listen, I am I am old school when it comes 0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:26.320 to this stuff. And I will reference again the greatest 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:28.240 coach of all time, the great Joe Jackson Gibbs, and 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:32.480 I will say, listen, when they won the Super Bowl, 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:34.600 excuse me. The year they lost the Super Bowl, I 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.520 believe it was to the La Raiders when they were 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:41.800 an absolute offensive juggernaut and they set the record for 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.080 the most points until the ninety nine Vikings beat it 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.520 with the first game of the season. I remember distinctly, right, 0:18:46.520 --> 0:18:49.000 they're beating the Lions, who they ended up beating in 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.640 the NFC Championship, like forty one to nothing or something 0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:54.639 like that, and they're knocking on the doorstep, and what 0:18:54.680 --> 0:18:57.000 do they do. They just they kneel on it, right, 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:59.160 because that's how you did it back in the day. 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:02.280 You were you had class, and you allowed. 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:06.120 To even today, when you're up thirty one six. Even 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:08.800 today the Arizona Cardinals were up thirty one six against 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:11.240 the Jets the other day. They hand off not because 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:13.440 they're they're trying not to run it up, just because 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:15.000 they're trying not to get anyone injured and get to 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:15.639 the next game. 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:18.240 But that's what I objected, like to Belichick, and I 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:20.000 don't listen, Belichick's one of the all time greats. I'm 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:22.800 obviously saying he's not. He's not not that, but you 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:24.359 know that was he was the first one of the 0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:26.159 first people to be like, if you want to stop us, 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:27.720 then you know I want us not to score, then 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:30.600 stop us. And so this younger generation got into this 0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:34.240 whole thing like, yeah, that's what you do. And I'm 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.439 just too old for that ship. I really am, Like, 0:19:36.520 --> 0:19:38.560 I'm just I get it, that's how it is now, 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:39.760