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Speaker 3: Thursday Morning, November twenty first, twenty twenty four, and is
Speaker 3: the Beating the Book podcast Megapod Megapod for week twelve
Speaker 3: in the National What All League, It's Gill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. I am now back to being
Speaker 1: only a half game behind Todd. The inevitable is about
Speaker 1: to We all know it, we all feel it. Todd
Speaker 1: chief among those people feel Todd Wishnev from his mom's
Speaker 1: cork attic at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, joined us as always, how
Speaker 1: you doing, Totty.
Speaker 4: I don't feel it.
Speaker 1: At t wish Nev on Twitter, He's busy. Let me
Speaker 1: just say this, let me just point this out. Todd
Speaker 1: is mainly concerned with betting in game college basketball. Right now,
Speaker 1: we'll try to see if we can get some of
Speaker 1: his attentions. He is the star of a Showtimes docuseries
Speaker 1: Action one of the stars looking for another documentary to
Speaker 1: be it.
Speaker 4: I think that's what he's acting.
Speaker 1: And then Will Hill at not the Will Hill, by
Speaker 1: the way, Todd is at tea wish New I say
Speaker 1: that Will Hill at not V. Will Hill the host
Speaker 1: of the Should Have bet More podcasts three times a week,
Speaker 1: available where all your podcasts are distributed. Will also part
Speaker 1: of Chris Filica's Bare Best podcast at Fox Sports. You
Speaker 1: don't Willie, What's going on?
Speaker 5: Yeah, we're we're trying not to get too much out
Speaker 5: of Todd with this podcast because he's been cooking pretty
Speaker 5: much in college basket. It's almost like you guys ever
Speaker 5: watched Breaking Bad when they're trying to get Walter White
Speaker 5: to cook. We just need to like get him in
Speaker 5: his environment, let him do his thing, just kind.
Speaker 4: Of let the genius work. Till last night when I
Speaker 4: couldn't pick one single game if my have my life
Speaker 4: depended on it, I was horrible, But we did get
Speaker 4: the winner. This morning with James Madison a U.
Speaker 1: I see, wait a minute, what do you mean we
Speaker 1: got the winner? We got destroyed in that. What are
Speaker 1: you talking about?
Speaker 4: We won? What are you talking about?
Speaker 1: Madison's first half under pre flop.
Speaker 6: And the game and he won.
Speaker 4: I played over end game.
Speaker 1: Oh that was a Willie pick. You know what I did?
Speaker 1: Todd on air on a Numbers game. I said it
Speaker 1: was a U pick.
Speaker 4: You apologize for that. I will, okay.
Speaker 5: I aggregated it from like these first half unders in
Speaker 5: early game.
Speaker 6: So I'm gonna I'm gonna pull a f aggregation card.
Speaker 1: Uh our guest, our rotating guest on the show today.
Speaker 1: He has made this an annual uh mitzvah of his
Speaker 1: on the show to come on the Megapod. He joins
Speaker 1: me on a Numbers game every quarter. He's kind enough
Speaker 1: to do that. We have done this podcast for over
Speaker 1: a decade. We have done this, but we haven't done
Speaker 1: the megapod for over a decade. He is correct about that.
Speaker 1: We've only done the megapod for about three years. I
Speaker 1: think this is the third. It is the great Aaron Shots.
Speaker 1: He is the creator of DVOA, the most granular play
Speaker 1: by play NFL statistic You can find, which has analyzed
Speaker 1: every single National Football League play all the way back
Speaker 1: dating to nineteen hundred and seventy nine. Defense value over adjusted.
Speaker 1: Aaron joins us now he works at FTN Sports. How
Speaker 1: you doing, Aaron?
Speaker 2: Know nothing about college basketball? I know nothing nothing about
Speaker 2: college basketball.
Speaker 1: Todd said, do you have any opinions on Drake? And
Speaker 1: you were like, Drake may No, Drake from where is Drake? Indiana?
Speaker 2: My brother from Toronto.
Speaker 1: That's right, he's one of our our miss bucher from Toronto, Toronto. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's right. Drake had a bar mitzvatad. Did you know
Speaker 1: that Drake hena bar mitsvatad? Were you aware of this?
Speaker 4: God? Who did?
Speaker 1: God is never mind? Okay, by the way, Erin, I
Speaker 1: just want to before we get into the show here,
Speaker 1: I just want to say I'm always fascinated by these
Speaker 1: things through ten weeks of the NFL season, because obviously
Speaker 1: there's buys in Baldo. I know we're in week twelve,
Speaker 1: but through ten games, let me be clear, games ten
Speaker 1: games of the NFL season. Correct me if I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: but I believe I saw this that in your historical
Speaker 1: through ten games DBA numbers, you famously have the two
Speaker 1: thousand and seven Patriots one, the nineteen ninety one Washington
Speaker 1: Redskins number two, and the twenty twenty four Lions number three.
Speaker 4: Is this correct?
Speaker 2: It's remarkable? But yeah, despite those couple of games where
Speaker 2: the opponent had more yards than them on an efficiency basis,
Speaker 2: they've just been ridiculous this year. Number two in offense,
Speaker 2: number two in defense, and number one one in special teams.
Speaker 2: My numbers love the Lions this year.
Speaker 1: And I always ask you this as a follow up
Speaker 1: to these kinds of questions. Removing Aaron Shots the analytics
Speaker 1: guy and talking to Aaron Shots the football viewer. Now,
Speaker 1: does it sort of check out for you with the
Speaker 1: eye test?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're doing everything well. What doesn't check
Speaker 2: out is you keep waiting for the game we're not
Speaker 2: having Hutchinson really hurts, right, we keep waiting for the
Speaker 2: opponent where it really matters that Hutchinson is not healthy.
Speaker 2: But I don't know when it's coming.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wonder, I wonder you're.
Speaker 4: Also hurt now, right? Gilly, isn't the middle Anzeloni or
Speaker 4: somebody isn't he Aloney's.
Speaker 2: Out for a few weeks.
Speaker 1: Also, Yeah, yeah, I just wonder like Will is wearing
Speaker 1: his Vikings purple today. The Vikings are one game behind them,
Speaker 1: as are in the in the division, as are the
Speaker 1: Eagles in the conference. And I just wonder, like, okay,
Speaker 1: third greatest of all time, and yet they still might
Speaker 1: not get the number one seed, right, still might not?
Speaker 1: And then then this looing specter of Jared Goff on
Speaker 1: the road in January, is that in the back of
Speaker 1: your mind still doesn't doesn't.
Speaker 2: The specter, the flip spector is Jared Goff in New
Speaker 2: Orleans in February. Indoors baby, Oh, good point, good point?
Speaker 1: All right, Before we get to our best bets, we
Speaker 1: always start with by the way I love I love
Speaker 1: historical DVOA. And if you're looking for.
Speaker 2: Point out, by the way I bet I put this morning,
Speaker 2: I actually put my down this morning. I put down
Speaker 2: on the Eagles plus four hundred to lose the NFC
Speaker 2: Championship game.
Speaker 6: That's a fun one.
Speaker 2: Where is that it was on DraftKings. Oh, I like
Speaker 2: that with the il the Lions are the best team
Speaker 2: in the conference, but the Eagles are the second best team.
Speaker 5: I mentioned on the Bear Pod that I've seen these
Speaker 5: in the past, but I haven't seen them once the
Speaker 5: season started, like conference title game exactly as where we
Speaker 5: have to pick both teams. I know it's square at
Speaker 5: Chalky and it's the NFL, anything can happen. I have
Speaker 5: a hard time seeing past an Eagles Lions NFC title
Speaker 5: game obviously.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's like all kinds of possibilities, but
Speaker 2: to me, that seemed like a good a good bet.
Speaker 1: At this point I started, I started putting together super
Speaker 1: Bowl matchups. Again, not exactly, it's just teams to meet
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. My first two bets are Lions
Speaker 1: are are are Chalky Lions Chiefs six to one, Lions
Speaker 1: Ravens nine to one. Yeah, no, I'm right there with you, man,
Speaker 1: right there with you. Before we get into the best bets,
Speaker 1: mister wishnev Our records on the season, sir as. The
Speaker 1: courts stenographer of the podcast.
Speaker 4: Are Gilly and Willy had good weeks last week, Gilly
Speaker 4: going two and one one. The only mistake was his
Speaker 4: little commanders taking what they call the proverbial deuce in
Speaker 4: the pants in the fourth quarter and blowing the plus four,
Speaker 4: and so he went two and one. He goes to
Speaker 4: seventeen fifteen and one with a nice little comeback there,
Speaker 4: and his teaser lost again. Somehow he is now two
Speaker 4: eight and one when Kansas City, well, actually both sides lost,
Speaker 4: but that Kansas City Josh Allen nonsense. So Willy had
Speaker 4: an outstanding week. And if you guys remember when I
Speaker 4: told you that when Willy was down, he's probably gonna
Speaker 4: have a nice little comeback run, and he is having
Speaker 4: that comeback run with a three and ozh not even close.
Speaker 4: Had the Eagles on that the Ravens under easy in
Speaker 4: the Denver easy. Unfortunately, he took another teaser loss when
Speaker 4: Josh Allen rolled to the right on fourth and two.
Speaker 4: Even though Gil Alexander always predicts on our text that
Speaker 4: Josh Allen on fourth and two will run the ball, somehow,
Speaker 4: some way, Steve Spagnola doesn't know that maybe Josh Allen
Speaker 4: may tuck the ball and run. And he's still running
Speaker 4: today for a nine point teaser blessed up. So you guys,
Speaker 4: did you did you catch?
Speaker 1: Did you catch? The Jim Nance? Right after that play
Speaker 1: goes the best NFL the greatest NFL play of the season,
Speaker 1: and out loud alone in my apartment, I go, really, Jim,
Speaker 1: the best and he then immediately responds on air, he goes,
Speaker 1: what I mean by that is he qualifies it.
Speaker 4: It's so great, all right, now now you do so?
Speaker 4: Willie goes fifth, goes to fifteen seventeen and one, an
Speaker 4: excellent comeback. He's three six and two on his teezers.
Speaker 4: I unfortunately went one and two when the Texans back
Speaker 4: doored me on the on that total. So I am
Speaker 4: now eighteen and fifteen, so things are tightening up. I
Speaker 4: won my teaser again, so I have made a full
Speaker 4: recovery on teasers to six and five. The guests Brent
Speaker 4: Musberger went two and one, and that moves the guest
Speaker 4: to sixteen sixteen and one, and their teasers are also
Speaker 4: six and five. So that's where we are as we
Speaker 4: start the week. Billy and Willy breathing.
Speaker 1: You're you're eighteen and fifteen? What am I?
Speaker 4: You're seventeen fifteen and one a half game back? And
Speaker 4: Willy is fifteen seventeen and one not two four backs?
Speaker 1: All right?
Speaker 4: Okay, did hardly get home? Did that?
Speaker 6: Did we count that?
Speaker 4: Or no?
Speaker 6: The touchdown parlay of the Frank did break the touchdown.
Speaker 4: Partly that he gave up. Yeah, we didn't count that. Okay,
Speaker 4: what is it?
Speaker 1: What is the guest chair? What's the record for the
Speaker 1: guest chair?
Speaker 4: The guest chair is now sixteen, sixteen and one and
Speaker 4: six and five. Onto this one we are, and I'd
Speaker 4: like to ask Aaron about I'd like to ask Aaron
Speaker 4: Shotts about my dummy of the week. And it's going
Speaker 4: to be a guy you might have heard of name
Speaker 4: Jane Campbell. I go on commercials and I say you
Speaker 4: should eat Applebee's wing endlessly. And you know what, I
Speaker 4: am the best at making speeches in the locker room afterwards.
Speaker 4: Now here's my question, Aaron. If Willie Hill gives you
Speaker 4: under twenty nine and under twenty eight and a half
Speaker 4: attempts for Jared goff right, and you look at the
Speaker 4: game log and you see every time they win big,
Speaker 4: he doesn't throw the ball a lot. So you tell
Speaker 4: will Hill. You say, will that's a great bet. I'm
Speaker 4: going to bet that under twenty eight and a half attempts.
Speaker 4: So you do bet the under twenty eight and a
Speaker 4: half temps. Now you're watching a National Football League game,
Speaker 4: and Aaron, you watch a lot of National Football League games.
Speaker 4: Have you ever seen a football team at thirty five
Speaker 4: to six throwing on first down. Now I ask you
Speaker 4: another question. Have you ever seen a team up forty
Speaker 4: two to six in the fourth fink quarter throwing the
Speaker 4: ball first down the game England? Right, okay, but still
Speaker 4: forty two to six and they're throwing the ball in
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter. Now here's why I make Dan Gamble
Speaker 4: the Dumbo of the week. What if Jared Goff on
Speaker 4: one of those throws gets his head torn off and
Speaker 4: he's out for the season and I was rooting for
Speaker 4: I never root for injuries because I'm a good person,
Speaker 4: But on this case, I rooted for an injury because
Speaker 4: those people are assholes. Why are you throwing the ball
Speaker 4: up forty two to six?
Speaker 1: And you led him answer the question, and you let
Speaker 1: him answer.
Speaker 2: You can remember the two thousand and seven Patriots.
Speaker 4: Wait, I want to tell him before he answers that
Speaker 4: we lost because twenty nine throws instead of twenty eight
Speaker 4: and a half attempts under Now, please answer.
Speaker 2: Remember the two thousand and seven Patriots. Yes, this is
Speaker 2: not the first team that threw the ball with big
Speaker 2: leads in the fourth quarter. And this is not the
Speaker 2: first team where fans looked at the TV and went,
Speaker 2: why are you not pulling the quarterback to make sure
Speaker 2: he doesn't get injured? It happens more.
Speaker 4: Than you think. Six, Aaron forty two six.
Speaker 2: Do you remember the two thousand and seven Patriots to
Speaker 2: go back to.
Speaker 4: Look at it right now because you said it, I'm
Speaker 4: going to go look and see if they was throwing them.
Speaker 2: From fans of other teams constantly complaining, why are the
Speaker 2: Patriots passed in the fourth quarter?
Speaker 6: Why is right after the flight they were trying to
Speaker 6: run up the score?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Was that the year, hold on, let's someone you. Was
Speaker 1: that the year that Joe Gibbs two point zero got
Speaker 1: crushed by Belichick And in a similar type of score,
Speaker 1: Belichick just kept pouring on points. And as a Washington
Speaker 1: Skins fan, as a Washington Skins van, we were unbelievably
Speaker 1: offended that Bill Belichick, supposed historian of the game, would
Speaker 1: do this to a coach of whose jockstrap Bill Belichick
Speaker 1: could never hold.
Speaker 2: Sorry because I know they played the Cowboys that year,
Speaker 2: so they probably played Washington too.
Speaker 6: Yeah, they ran it up. I'm looking at the box score.
Speaker 6: It was only fifty two to seven.
Speaker 1: By a way, will I will stand by that I
Speaker 1: know you that's hard if you if you gave Joe
Speaker 1: Jackson Gibbs, Tom Brady, he would have won. Let me
Speaker 1: do the math. Twenty seven Super but.
Speaker 5: Brady threw one touchdown pass their first Super Bowl run.
Speaker 5: Brady won the final Super Bowl, like thirteen to three.
Speaker 5: Brady wants Belichick won Super Bowls with the Giants. I
Speaker 5: don't think it's fair to just because we dide guilty
Speaker 5: of it too, Like all he did was half.
Speaker 4: All he did was have Drew.
Speaker 5: Brees, and you know he's not a good coach. He's
Speaker 5: turned out to be a good coach. I don't think
Speaker 5: it's fair.
Speaker 1: Joe Gibbs the greatest of all time. I will die
Speaker 1: on this.
Speaker 6: What about Barry Lamar Bonds not.
Speaker 1: As good a coach? Okay, I will give another just
Speaker 1: because we have another candidate besides Dan Campbell, because it
Speaker 1: is tough to give someone dumb over the week in
Speaker 1: a fifty two to six game. What do we feel
Speaker 1: about the great Matt Eberflus, who sort of lotly gagged
Speaker 1: that last drive for the Bears against the Packers. All
Speaker 1: the Bears need was a field goal to win. Caleb
Speaker 1: Williams had a great game at a great final drive
Speaker 1: for it down conversion to a dunze than another one
Speaker 1: to a dunzae. They matriculate the ball down the field.
Speaker 1: They end up with a lengthy forty almost fifty, but
Speaker 1: it was less than fifty yard field goal, about forty
Speaker 1: seven yard I believe it was. But they had an
Speaker 1: extra thirty seconds or so to run an additional play.
Speaker 1: They chose not to, and after the game Eberflus was like, yeah,
Speaker 1: we were good. I think it's an exact quote. We
Speaker 1: know what happens. Cairo Santos gets his field goal blocked.
Speaker 1: That's not to say that he wouldn't have gotten it
Speaker 1: blocked from twenty seven. Maybe he would have. Do we
Speaker 1: have a problem with that? Who's the worst Dumbo of
Speaker 1: the week? Campbell for doing what he did or Eberflus
Speaker 1: for just saying I will settle it.
Speaker 2: I would go with Eberflus because this is a problem
Speaker 2: that a lot of coaches in the NFL have, is
Speaker 2: this belief that field goal range is some kind of
Speaker 2: binary where when you pass a certain yard line, now
Speaker 2: you're in field goal range. That's it. We're done, Like,
Speaker 2: that's not how it works.
Speaker 1: It's such a good point too, because remember earlier in
Speaker 1: the year and this is not this is an armchair
Speaker 1: quarterback because I said it at the time the Chiefs
Speaker 1: won a game. I want to say it was against.
Speaker 4: The Chargers against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Was the Bengals where Andy Reid was just like, yeah, Harrison,
Speaker 1: butker fifty one yards, it's fine, we'll win. And he
Speaker 1: kicked it and he made it and they won and
Speaker 1: nobody said a word. And I'm like, wow, have we
Speaker 1: gotten to the point where we're just like nonchalantly kicking
Speaker 1: fifty one yarders to win a game? And we were
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season because nobody was missing,
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden yesterday it's like the
Speaker 1: field goal button got turned off and no one was
Speaker 1: making anything. There was that one sequence where Hopkins missed
Speaker 1: two chip shots at the same time Joshua Cardi missed
Speaker 1: a chip shot when same chip shots like shorter than
Speaker 1: thirty yards twenty.
Speaker 2: Four or something.
Speaker 1: Card Yeah, yeah, that was amazing, both of them. Incredible.
Speaker 1: So you would vote forever flu So I think Todd
Speaker 1: is going to stand on the Dan camp both of
Speaker 1: the weekend.
Speaker 4: Well here's why I'm going to because I just pulled
Speaker 4: up an NFL reference and I went back to a
Speaker 4: game where the Patriots won fifty six to ten in
Speaker 4: two thousand and six. In two thousand and seven, which
Speaker 4: is a similar to scenario. And guess who was in
Speaker 4: the game in the fourth quarter Matt Castle handing off
Speaker 4: to Heath Evans, not Thomas Brady. Sure, late third quarter,
Speaker 4: who was still in but not Thomas Brady. It was
Speaker 4: a guy named Matt Castle who was in the game
Speaker 4: in fifty six.
Speaker 2: You know they did so, Brian Hendon Hooker, Yes, they
Speaker 2: did bring that.
Speaker 4: Finally, finally after when they got the ball back with
Speaker 4: like five minutes left in the game. I'm saying that
Speaker 4: the starting quarterback you should not.
Speaker 2: Be Campbell does not know what the over under on
Speaker 2: Jared goff passes.
Speaker 4: I didn't say he was parent I say. I did
Speaker 4: not say he knows. I just said he's an asshole,
Speaker 4: That's all. I didn't say he knows.
Speaker 1: Todd, you asked Aaron the question, he gave you a
Speaker 1: very correct historical answer, and you're just you choose to
Speaker 1: you know.
Speaker 4: No, all I'm saying is I'm looking at a reference
Speaker 4: and it shows that that Tom Brady was out of
Speaker 4: the game in the fourth quarter. That's all. But I
Speaker 4: allows point that they did one second up. Take his
Speaker 4: point that they did run it up, and I agree
Speaker 4: with him that they ran it up. But there's a
Speaker 4: difference between running it up and what Dan Campbell did
Speaker 4: forty two to six is beyond running it up. That's
Speaker 4: called like insanity.
Speaker 1: Listen, I am I am old school when it comes
Speaker 1: to this stuff. And I will reference again the greatest
Speaker 1: coach of all time, the great Joe Jackson Gibbs, and
Speaker 1: I will say, listen, when they won the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: excuse me. The year they lost the Super Bowl, I
Speaker 1: believe it was to the La Raiders when they were
Speaker 1: an absolute offensive juggernaut and they set the record for
Speaker 1: the most points until the ninety nine Vikings beat it
Speaker 1: with the first game of the season. I remember distinctly, right,
Speaker 1: they're beating the Lions, who they ended up beating in
Speaker 1: the NFC Championship, like forty one to nothing or something
Speaker 1: like that, and they're knocking on the doorstep, and what
Speaker 1: do they do. They just they kneel on it, right,
Speaker 1: because that's how you did it back in the day.
Speaker 1: You were you had class, and you allowed.
Speaker 4: To even today, when you're up thirty one six. Even
Speaker 4: today the Arizona Cardinals were up thirty one six against
Speaker 4: the Jets the other day. They hand off not because
Speaker 4: they're they're trying not to run it up, just because
Speaker 4: they're trying not to get anyone injured and get to
Speaker 4: the next game.
Speaker 1: But that's what I objected, like to Belichick, and I
Speaker 1: don't listen, Belichick's one of the all time greats. I'm
Speaker 1: obviously saying he's not. He's not not that, but you
Speaker 1: know that was he was the first one of the
Speaker 1: first people to be like, if you want to stop us,
Speaker 1: then you know I want us not to score, then
Speaker 1: stop us. And so this younger generation got into this
Speaker 1: whole thing like, yeah, that's what you do. And I'm
Speaker 1: just too old for that ship. I really am, Like,
Speaker 1: I'm just I get it, that's how it is now,
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm still not.
Speaker 5: And my concern with the golf that even though I
Speaker 5: thought it was a good beat because they take the
Speaker 5: foot off the gas and you know they can have
Speaker 5: a big lead that probably can throw a lot, is
Speaker 5: that golf through the five picks the.
Speaker 6: Week before, I know one was a hail Mary but
Speaker 6: that they were going to.
Speaker 5: Try to get his confidence back and Patti stats and
Speaker 5: just keep throwing to make him feel good.
Speaker 4: So that wasn't the back of my head the whole time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, if.
Speaker 4: Aaron is just to be fair, because I always liked
Speaker 4: to be fair and argue in a fair minded way
Speaker 4: as opposed to the way people argue nowadays. But it's
Speaker 4: the fifty two to nothing game where the Patriots beat
Speaker 4: a certain team named the Washington Gilly Redskins. It was
Speaker 4: thirty eight nothing in the fourth quarter and the Patriots
Speaker 4: actually had Tom Brady in and he did throw a
Speaker 4: couple of passes to get the forty five nothing and
Speaker 4: then they took him out. So Aaron is actually correct
Speaker 4: on one the one game. I didn't correct in the
Speaker 4: other game. But either way, it's still not right. It's
Speaker 4: just not right, all right.
Speaker 1: Would you like to give an in game story before
Speaker 1: we go to the best bets?
Speaker 4: Yes, yes, I'd like to give it a little quick
Speaker 4: little Grand would talk about that.
Speaker 5: No.
Speaker 4: I thought Steve had a great bet on Grand Canyon,
Speaker 4: and I ended up winning it, so I was lucky.
Speaker 4: But the Bears were playing the forty nine ers this
Speaker 4: past weekend. The score in the first half was very
Speaker 4: low because both teams were taking forty nine ers, were
Speaker 4: playing the Seattle, and the drives were very long drives,
Speaker 4: like seven to eight minute drives. In the first half,
Speaker 4: the score was very low. And a lot of times
Speaker 4: in those kind of games where the line is originally
Speaker 4: high and the score is very low in the first half,
Speaker 4: typically you see points in the second half. Well, that's
Speaker 4: kind of what to start it to happen. When finally
Speaker 4: the Niners took a thirteen to ten lead late in
Speaker 4: the third quarter, around three minutes to go at the
Speaker 4: end of the third quarter. At that point some of
Speaker 4: the books had thirty seven fourteen more points and then
Speaker 4: you could get thirty six and a half at minus
Speaker 4: one twenty nine. So at that point I said to myself,
Speaker 4: I think more touchdowns are coming in this game. Overtime
Speaker 4: is also maybe a possibility. I just feel like we've
Speaker 4: got points coming in this game, and so I bet.
Speaker 4: So the question was thirty seven or thirty six and
Speaker 4: a half in pay extra? I paid extra for the
Speaker 4: thirty six and a half, and I should have won easily.
Speaker 4: The Niners went down on another long drive, got a
Speaker 4: touchdown to go up seventeen thirteen. The Seattle went on
Speaker 4: a long drive, came down fourth and one. Now, please
Speaker 4: explain this to me. Gil When it's third and one
Speaker 4: and a half and you run Gino Smith on a
Speaker 4: quarterback keeper and he gets one point thirty five yards
Speaker 4: and now there's six inches to go on fourth down,
Speaker 4: you hand off to the guy so he can't get
Speaker 4: it on fourth down. I'll still never understand that they
Speaker 4: just got a yard and a half, almost just get
Speaker 4: another six inches. Anyways, they get stopped. Then somehow they
Speaker 4: stop the Niners, and of course Gino Smith goes on
Speaker 4: the run to infamy, the beautiful run forty yards down
Speaker 4: the sideline, then another thirty yards for the touchdown, and
Speaker 4: I end up winning because it ends twenty to seventeen.
Speaker 4: So I guess the point that I want to make
Speaker 4: here is in this kind of game where there's long
Speaker 4: drives and you don't want to play over thirty seven
Speaker 4: there because what's the point. You're just going to get
Speaker 4: a push. If you get the two touchdowns you need,
Speaker 4: you might as well pay the extra twenty five cents.
Speaker 4: A lot of people don't like paying minus one twenty
Speaker 4: nine minus one thirty five. They were like, they're scared
Speaker 4: of that extra number. Juice is worth paying for in
Speaker 4: that scenario, and it ended up working out for me.
Speaker 1: The juice thing across sports is a great bit of
Speaker 1: advice for betters because there was the Mac game last
Speaker 1: night where I said, I jumped in the second quarter
Speaker 1: Toledo minus two and a half extra juice. They were
Speaker 1: at midfield. You cannot shy away from those moments, like
Speaker 1: pay the extra juice. There's the reason why there's juice there.
Speaker 1: Don't see you half away?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like what you have to make a determination.
Speaker 4: Let's say you're paying minus one to fifty. You got
Speaker 4: to win this bet over sixty percent of the time,
Speaker 4: but very often it is a sixty percent bet, like
Speaker 4: in your case with your excellent Collin Toledo.
Speaker 1: All right, Best Bets Week twelve and that ASHNAL Football
Speaker 1: League aarin. By the way, before you before you give
Speaker 1: your first best bet, a couple of things. One, you're
Speaker 1: following Brent Musburger no pressure whatsoever? Ay, do you believe
Speaker 1: Brent should be in the NFL Hall of Fame? Because
Speaker 1: I was going off on that last week in front
Speaker 1: of Brent he was very uncomfortable, and two tell everybody
Speaker 1: what they can get at FTN and where they find it.
Speaker 2: Has uh they the he's never won the Broadcaster Award
Speaker 2: or whatever that they give.
Speaker 1: I don't think so has it. Maybe he has, Maybe
Speaker 1: maybe he won't mention it if he. If he had,
Speaker 1: he's definitely the last guy to say that he has.
Speaker 2: Oh Okay, I mean if he has.
Speaker 5: They have the Ford Frick Award and they put the
Speaker 5: guys in the Hall of Fame. Might get confused with
Speaker 5: the different writer wings in the Hall of Fame because
Speaker 5: I was just at the baseball one, and you know
Speaker 5: they have this whole wing of like writers team.
Speaker 2: I think there's a Broadcaster Award for football too, though,
Speaker 2: like I think Joe Buckle won.
Speaker 1: It is Steve Sable in the NFL Hall of Fame,
Speaker 1: Like is that family? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I think as a contributor, Oh, as.
Speaker 1: A contributor, I just whatever the whatever the categorization is.
Speaker 1: Brent needs to be. He's eighty five years old.
Speaker 2: FT and Fantasy. We have tons of good stuff. We
Speaker 2: have the stats Hub with all kinds of advanced charting
Speaker 2: statistics and DVOA for Advanced charting Statistics updated during the season.
Speaker 2: We have all of our daily fantasy optimizers. We have
Speaker 2: all of our picks in lots of sports. I only
Speaker 2: do NFL, but we do everything from women's basketball to
Speaker 2: golf and have good records in it. So folks should
Speaker 2: check out Ftnfantasy dot Com.
Speaker 1: And I have guys friends of mine that still play fantasy.
Speaker 1: They swear by FDA. They really do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jeff Radcliffe does great projections.
Speaker 1: They that's the guy they love. They're like Jeff Radcliffe,
Speaker 1: nobody better. Okay, your first best bet of the week, sir, is.
Speaker 2: Well, you left me on the Lions, but I'm going
Speaker 2: with the Lions. Lions minus seven and a half at Indianapolis. Right,
Speaker 2: Lions are one of the best teams of all time.
Speaker 2: By my numbers, Colts are twenty first, and that's slightly
Speaker 2: juiced by the Joe Flacco games. Right, Like, I feel
Speaker 2: like the Colts are not six and a half points
Speaker 2: better than the Jaguars. The Jaguars line last week was fourteen.
Speaker 2: I mean, maybe it's an a home and away thing,
Speaker 2: but I don't remember last week where that game was.
Speaker 2: But I just don't think seven and a half is
Speaker 2: high enough. So Lions minus seven and a half at Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: The Lions are starting to feel like those teams we
Speaker 1: grew up on, whether it was a Niners team or
Speaker 1: the Giants or the Skins, those NFC, those NFC teams,
Speaker 1: also the Bears in eighty five, that just steamroll teams,
Speaker 1: and they do have that feel a little bit this year.
Speaker 6: I'm hoping that Vikings.
Speaker 1: And losing the end. Yeah, Toddy, what do you got first?
Speaker 4: Were we talking to discuss the Thursday night game? We
Speaker 4: were just going to go right to the Oh.
Speaker 1: I wish I have this podcast?
Speaker 4: Sorry, Gilty, Sorry?
Speaker 1: Does anybody there? They're supposed to be in clement weather tonight?
Speaker 1: In clement weather tonight in Cleveland. I forgot about that
Speaker 1: mix of rain and snow. I'm not a trends guy,
Speaker 1: but I feel like I'm not doing my job unless
Speaker 1: I give him here for this one, because Thursday Night
Speaker 1: trends abound. Steelers have never won a road Divisional Thursday
Speaker 1: Night football game. They're oh and seven all time, and
Speaker 1: oh and five under Mike Tomlin. Tomlin is two and
Speaker 1: eight on the road on Thursday Night football. The Browns
Speaker 1: six and oh straight up their last six Thursday Nights
Speaker 1: including two and overs. Is Tomlin I was saying earlier,
Speaker 1: I think this might be a field overprop kind of
Speaker 1: game where they throw him in the game for a
Speaker 1: lot of plays.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like you. I like the over on this
Speaker 2: until the snow. We start talking about the snow. I
Speaker 2: think if they dropped the over under last time, I
Speaker 2: thought it was thirty six, if they drop it a
Speaker 2: little bit more than that, I think I like the
Speaker 2: over despite the snow, because Winston hits there much better
Speaker 2: on offense than Watson was. Right now, Yeah, oh, I think, yeah,
Speaker 2: I think that the snow, I'd probably shy away.
Speaker 6: Then if it is thirty seven, I will make this
Speaker 6: one of my picks.
Speaker 1: Oh, thirty seven it is.
Speaker 4: I'll go on the reason. I think, just so you know, Willie,
Speaker 4: the wind is supposed to be down to under ten
Speaker 4: miles an hour. I think that's why back up. But anyways, good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, wind is not supposed to be a fact.
Speaker 4: I still think the weather is not going to be great.
Speaker 5: And I just think Pittsburgh it's one of these games
Speaker 5: where they run, run, run, kickfield, goals, punt. They just
Speaker 5: come into the game with the approach of, hey, let's
Speaker 5: not turn it over. Let's not screw it up. Winston
Speaker 5: will probably throw us a pick at some point, be
Speaker 5: conserved and win the game. You know, typical stealer. Every
Speaker 5: game is you know, sixteen thirteen, twenty to fourteen, something
Speaker 5: like that. So I will go under. I know there's
Speaker 5: not much margin for air when you're getting as low
Speaker 5: as thirty seven in the NFL, but that's a key number.
Speaker 5: At thirty six thirty six and a half, I would pass,
Speaker 5: but I will go under the thirty seven. I don't
Speaker 5: love it either. I don't love the card. This is
Speaker 5: not the last week. I had a good feel and
Speaker 5: there were picks on deck that I liked that got
Speaker 5: through it a great field last week. I don't feel
Speaker 5: the same way this week.
Speaker 6: Kind of an ugly week.
Speaker 4: But I will make the under.
Speaker 1: One of my picks might end up being one if
Speaker 1: I can't find three too. I mean, I Jamis Winston
Speaker 1: in the cold and in the rain and the snow
Speaker 1: is not an image that I can sort of imagine
Speaker 1: in my head. There's a guy who's played in warm
Speaker 1: weather in college largely, I don't know. Just don't throw
Speaker 1: that pick in his own territory deep, you know, for
Speaker 1: your under Todd, what's your first.
Speaker 4: I actually have a pick on tonight's game. I am
Speaker 4: gonna go down to the mistake on the Lake. That's
Speaker 4: what they call it here in Pittsburgh. They call it
Speaker 4: the mistake by the Lake, And I'm gonna take whoa.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take the Bronnis. What do am I getting?
Speaker 4: Am I getting three and a half?
Speaker 1: Yes? You are?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna take the Klee Bronnis plus the three
Speaker 4: and a half. Now, uns are gonna say uns are
Speaker 4: picking against your own store team, wood youans crazy. That's
Speaker 4: a crazy thing to do, are you? Did you eat
Speaker 4: too much done at lunch in East Librity. Well, here's
Speaker 4: why I'm saying that. Here's why I'm saying that. The
Speaker 4: Steelers are are eight and two against the spread and
Speaker 4: the Brownies are three and seven against the spread. The
Speaker 4: Stealers haven't lost a spread game in six weeks. Sooner
Speaker 4: or later they're gonna get you in the NFL. And
Speaker 4: this is a team that doesn't like to win by margin.
Speaker 4: We're also a team, like Willie said, it's gonna be
Speaker 4: grinding Pine in the snow. That means a those scoring game,
Speaker 4: those scoring game we got a better chance to cover
Speaker 4: our three and a half. I just think that if
Speaker 4: the Klee Brownies are ever gonna throw the kitchen sinking
Speaker 4: at at a team, they're gonna do it against their rivals,
Speaker 4: the Pittsburg Stores. They didn't play that bad in the
Speaker 4: Saints game. They average a lot of yards per play
Speaker 4: it down in New Orleans. I think they can move
Speaker 4: the ball a little bit, keep it close, lose at
Speaker 4: seventeen fourteen, give me the Klee Bronnis, and don't throw
Speaker 4: me out of Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: I like both of your I like both of your
Speaker 1: leans on this game and both of your plays. I
Speaker 1: in fact, am going to make the under thirty seven
Speaker 1: one of my plays.
Speaker 4: Let's go.
Speaker 1: I just I don't like this week enough to find
Speaker 1: three sides, and I think the weather gets me on
Speaker 1: the under here as well. That's one of those bets
Speaker 1: where it's like tip of the cap. If you beat
Speaker 1: y'all can score more than thirty seven points, good, I'm
Speaker 1: on the under thirty seven. Todd, make that I got
Speaker 1: it what you means. Okay, So let's start with Aaron again.
Speaker 1: Then Aaron, your number two would.
Speaker 2: Be I'm gonna go over forty one and a half
Speaker 2: In the Giants and Buccaneers. Mike Evans is back for
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers offense, and I do like the idea of
Speaker 2: the kind of new quarterback kind of juices the offense
Speaker 2: a little bit for like a week. And I don't
Speaker 2: think Tommy Cutlets is that much worse than Daniel Jones.
Speaker 2: So I'm going with the over forty one and a
Speaker 2: half on the Giants and the Buccaneers, go Mike Evans.
Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing They that Daniel Jones, the guy they
Speaker 1: paid that big contract to, ain't much better off any
Speaker 1: at all than Tommy. Tommy Gilly and I have matching Fiji's.
Speaker 6: By the way, for those listening at home, I.
Speaker 1: Want to say mine is bigger.
Speaker 4: The way I like Aaron's pick because Tampa Bay is
Speaker 4: is a dumpster fire on defense. So if Tommy DeVito
Speaker 4: is going to be able to call the soprano guys
Speaker 4: and get himself a couple of touchdowns, this is the
Speaker 4: team to do it against, you know. So I kind
Speaker 4: of like that forty one and plus Tampa is going
Speaker 4: to score, So I kind of like that.
Speaker 1: Aaron. Do you find that people's recollection of Tommy DeVito
Speaker 1: is a much more positive one than reality. Actually, was he?
Speaker 2: What is people's recollection of Tommy Tavita?
Speaker 6: Yeah, that he's so.
Speaker 2: Are you asking about NFL fans in general or Giants
Speaker 2: fans in particular, Well, Giants fan, NFL fans in general
Speaker 2: know what Tommy DeVito was. Giants fans might be a
Speaker 2: little over excited.
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, that's by way. I'd like to ask ask
Speaker 4: Aaron to do the fact we are talking about the
Speaker 4: metal Lands. I contend that the metal Lands I have
Speaker 4: no statistical and that's why I'm asking you. I have
Speaker 4: no statistical basis. I contend that the Meadowlands is now
Speaker 4: the hardest place to kick a field goal? Am I correct? Aaron?
Speaker 2: I do not know the answer to that question.
Speaker 4: Do you have totally?
Speaker 1: It feels like you're right.
Speaker 4: Do you have? No?
Speaker 2: I don't have like a mule of years worth of
Speaker 2: data together that I could like look right now.
Speaker 4: Oh okay, anyways, I thought you might know. But the
Speaker 4: to me, it really seems like that meadow Lands is
Speaker 4: tough to kick a field goal and the wind is
Speaker 4: swirling around. I mean, where else is it hard to
Speaker 4: kick a field goal? Hines Field is no longer that hard.
Speaker 4: So where else are the tough places to kick a
Speaker 4: field goal?
Speaker 2: I'm not sure. I think of all cold weather stadiums
Speaker 2: as basically being the same wherever, like.
Speaker 1: Tomlin visits Cleveland tonight, feels like that. I can distinctly
Speaker 1: remember seeing field goal attempts in Cleveland look like they're
Speaker 1: going straight and then taking hard left.
Speaker 2: I mean Buffalo when the weather is horrible. But that's not,
Speaker 2: you know, not in week one?
Speaker 1: You know what was the stadium will where I got
Speaker 1: to the uh disagreement with the Lombardi and he said
Speaker 1: he violently disagreed with me about the win.
Speaker 5: That was the Buffalo New England win game where it
Speaker 5: was just insane wins and New England didn't even try to.
Speaker 4: Throw the ball.
Speaker 5: They just handed off every dime, hand it off every
Speaker 5: down and one and one.
Speaker 1: One and one? Uh, Toddy, what's your number two?
Speaker 4: My number two? And I couldn't agree with you more
Speaker 4: that this is a very difficult card, not that any
Speaker 4: NFL card isn't difficult, But what am I getting in
Speaker 4: the what do I have the line at and the
Speaker 4: Seattle against the Arizona Cardinal game?
Speaker 1: That's a pick them, dude, that is straight. Pick them,
Speaker 1: is it?
Speaker 2: I've seen it at one. I've seen it a minus one,
Speaker 2: and I've seen it at pick them in different Wow.
Speaker 5: I saw Seattle plus one and a half this morning.
Speaker 5: Now I'm seeing Seattle minus. Wanted some books, some books
Speaker 5: having to pick them that we're going to say.
Speaker 4: Them, So we're gonna say pick them. I'm going to
Speaker 4: take the Seahattle Seahawks, pick them at home. I just
Speaker 4: think that very similar to you know, in the NFL,
Speaker 4: you know when teams covered multiple games in a row,
Speaker 4: you're kind of you know that you have to start
Speaker 4: paying the tax on them, and you're buying them high
Speaker 4: versus buying them low. And I feel like Arizona is
Speaker 4: a similar situation where Arizona's just been playing so well lately.
Speaker 4: They've played so many good games in a row, and
Speaker 4: Seattle had played so many bad games in a row.
Speaker 4: Metcalf was out and then finally they turned it around
Speaker 4: last week with that big win on the Geno Smith runs.
Speaker 4: I kind of feel that Seattle is starting to turn
Speaker 4: a little bit and Arizona you have to be you know,
Speaker 4: they can't be this good. I'm not saying they aren't good.
Speaker 4: I'm sure they are good. I'm just saying, are they
Speaker 4: really this good to go into Seattle now and have
Speaker 4: everything go right again like in every other game that
Speaker 4: they play. Give me the Seattle Seahawks. Pick them because
Speaker 4: I feel a little resurgence coming for Seattle.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 4: You know, Seattle got blown out in that Buffalo game,
Speaker 4: but it really wasn't It could have been totally different.
Speaker 4: They were inside the five yard line a number of
Speaker 4: times in that game, could have scored, and that game
Speaker 4: could have been a completely different game. There were There's
Speaker 4: a bunch of games where Seattle has been kind of like,
Speaker 4: you know, weird to look at. I just feel like
Speaker 4: you're you're buying Arizona too high now and and Seattle
Speaker 4: I could get to buy low unlike Bitcoin. So I'll
Speaker 4: take Seattle. Pick them.
Speaker 5: Wait wait, I'm hearing something Gino Smith tie game back
Speaker 5: to passing.
Speaker 1: Then it's not that comment, will you?
Speaker 4: You can't do my routines if you don't do it properly.
Speaker 4: You didn't give us a time, you didn't even score,
Speaker 4: you didn't give us anything. I'll mix it again.
Speaker 5: I'll try to surprise you, like a month from now,
Speaker 5: I'll practice at home and I'll be better.
Speaker 1: You didn't give us a pylon involved and you didn't
Speaker 1: turn purple.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the ball has to be tipped in the air,
Speaker 4: and then the color guy has.
Speaker 1: To go aha, loses it. All right, Well, what's your second?
Speaker 6: What do we have for Eagles? Rams?
Speaker 1: That's what's that?
Speaker 2: Drew three some places and two and a half in
Speaker 2: some places.
Speaker 4: I think the most three. I'm gonna go with three.
Speaker 4: I think we have to give the.
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I'll go elsewhere. I'm gonna go back.
Speaker 5: You know I can't do Titans. I'll go under forty
Speaker 5: and a half? Is it forty and a half?
Speaker 6: Titans? Texans?
Speaker 4: I was so I'm just not doing it.
Speaker 6: I'm not doing it. You know what, I might actually
Speaker 6: do it for my third pick.
Speaker 1: Forty and a half, Yes, sir, I will go under.
Speaker 5: I just don't love the Texans offensive line. I think
Speaker 5: the Tennessee still got some players defensively, They've just been
Speaker 5: so snaked bit in these games. You just, man, you
Speaker 5: touch the stove and you get burned. You don't want
Speaker 5: to keep touching it. So I don't know that I'm
Speaker 5: gonna make the Titans my third pick, But I do
Speaker 5: think their defense can keep this game close. It is
Speaker 5: kind of a semi rivalry game the old Oilers. It's
Speaker 5: a division game. Texans are up, you know, it's a
Speaker 5: short week for them. I think that the Titans can
Speaker 5: keep this game close defensively and just make it like,
Speaker 5: you know, a twenty three sixteen type of game. So again,
Speaker 5: there's not a lot to choose from here. I like
Speaker 5: the Texans defense. These teams are both top five yards
Speaker 5: per play allowed. I will go under forty and a
Speaker 5: half and hope mister Levis does not throw the ball
Speaker 5: to the team wearing the other uniforms.
Speaker 1: I so want you to play the Titans, all right?
Speaker 1: My number two, My number two is my favorite pick.
Speaker 1: Which is the only thing that I jumped at during
Speaker 1: guessing lines on Monday, which is I like the Baltimore
Speaker 1: Ravens in the Harrorball Bowl Monday night. Was it two
Speaker 1: and a half or three? Right now? Three?
Speaker 4: I see those? What do you guys think it's more
Speaker 4: more common? Sing two and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm seeing both equally.
Speaker 5: I mean, if I get two and a half on Philly,
Speaker 5: I can give you two and a half on Baltimore.
Speaker 6: But if I'm not getting the three. I can't give
Speaker 6: you the three. That's just how this goes.
Speaker 1: No Philadelphia, clear it is much more three.
Speaker 6: So this one's split.
Speaker 1: One's split. I think.
Speaker 4: Let's let Aaron make the calls.
Speaker 2: I thought.
Speaker 1: I'm getting the worst of it, but I'll still do it.
Speaker 1: I don't think the Chargers are quite the hype gene
Speaker 1: that people are making. They their list of vanquished opponents
Speaker 1: is not very strong, and they almost fell apart in
Speaker 1: that Bengals game last week. I think people are a
Speaker 1: little mesmerized by Harball. I get it. Their defense is good,
Speaker 1: but the Ravens are just a better football team to me,
Speaker 1: and I think that that Pittsburgh game also, coming off
Speaker 1: of that game, is going to be nothing but a
Speaker 1: good thing for this team heading into this one. It's
Speaker 1: a little bit of That was a Sunday night game.
Speaker 1: It was not a Monday night game, so it's not
Speaker 1: really extra rest. But I just my reaction to this,
Speaker 1: my guess was it was going to be Baltimore minus four.
Speaker 1: It opened minus two. I betted at minus two and
Speaker 1: a half. I'll still play it at three. I think
Speaker 1: the Ravens are going I think John over Jim here
Speaker 1: in this one. Which is a big game for both teams.
Speaker 1: In the Ravens case, depending on what the Steelers do
Speaker 1: here tonight could be about getting back into the betting
Speaker 1: favorite for the division, could be back, you know, getting
Speaker 1: back to Lamar being the short shot for MVP. We'll see,
Speaker 1: but I'm on the Ravens as my numbers. I thought
Speaker 1: about that.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 5: I don't think Lamar is a good pick just because
Speaker 5: he already won it twice. He won it last year.
Speaker 5: They've already got four losses. I mean, he's probably gonna
Speaker 5: lose another game or two. Are they're really going to
Speaker 5: give it back to back years to a guy with
Speaker 5: you know, five six losses. I'm not sure, but I
Speaker 5: thought about taking Baltimore. Tucker kept me off at Tucker's
Speaker 5: been awful. He's gone from automatic to just bat Aaron,
Speaker 5: do you do you have any theory, like any precedent
Speaker 5: for somebody.
Speaker 2: Being so I do not know what has happened into him,
Speaker 2: like it happens to kickers sometimes, and I don't know
Speaker 2: what it is, and I don't know how to fix it.
Speaker 5: It's like having a bad closer in baseball. It's like
Speaker 5: you only can use it with the game.
Speaker 2: No you can hide your closer, you can demote your
Speaker 2: closer to set up right, you can't demote your kicker
Speaker 2: to anything good.
Speaker 1: Point Yeah, well none of that dissuades me. And Lamar
Speaker 1: has twenty five touchdowns and three picks. Yeah, more, more
Speaker 1: and all the you know, all the running yard of
Speaker 1: course as well. I have a real time coming up
Speaker 1: with number three this week, I really do. I am
Speaker 1: tempted to do the kiniella tonight and do two picks
Speaker 1: on that game, but I don't want to do that.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stick with just the under What is the
Speaker 1: line that you are seeing for the do Do Do Do?
Speaker 1: Sorry about this? For the Denver Broncos, what do you sing?
Speaker 2: Six?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 6: Six?
Speaker 5: Who are you gonna take? By the way, in the
Speaker 5: game tonight, what was what was the side you liked?
Speaker 1: I was gonna take the Browns? Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: like you know, fuck it, I'm taking the Browns plus
Speaker 1: three and a half. Sorry, I really I like that
Speaker 1: better than I like anything on Sunday. I really do.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 1: I'm literally playing both the side and the total in
Speaker 1: tonight's game. I'm on the Brownies plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: It's a low total. I'm betting the under already, so
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be even lower. Their four three
Speaker 1: and a half points is a lot. I do think
Speaker 1: the Steelers are the better football team, but those conditions
Speaker 1: are gonna sort of even the playing field. I think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a big running game tonight on both
Speaker 1: sides of the football. But I think the Browns keep
Speaker 1: it close. I'm not a trends guy, as I said,
Speaker 1: but I don't hate those trends obviously. For this Browns
Speaker 1: plus three and a half at home on a short
Speaker 1: week is a better play to me than anything on Sunday.
Speaker 1: How about that? That's my thirst?
Speaker 4: Is it better than under one thirty six and a half?
Speaker 4: Drake Miami at the sixteen minute commercial, which I just did?
Speaker 4: Is it better than that? At?
Speaker 6: Oh?
Speaker 1: Is that what you just did?
Speaker 4: Yeah? Traveling, traveling on Drake, we're going the other way.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's I'm not sure it's better than that.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's better than that? Really? Really, what's
Speaker 1: your last.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm just gonna pass. I'm gonna forfeit the third game.
Speaker 5: I don't like anything.
Speaker 4: You know, what the hell? What do we have for hope?
Speaker 1: Would we get one thirty six and a half? I
Speaker 1: literally opened my sports is one thirty one already Jesus
Speaker 1: because a commercial.
Speaker 4: At the commercial it was one thirty six and a half,
Speaker 4: and then Drake takes the shot, talk all the way
Speaker 4: down to nothing, missus a shot, and then they'd stopped Miami.
Speaker 4: So when you get like a minute and fifteen of nothing,
Speaker 4: you get five points less. So you were blathering on
Speaker 4: about Cleveland. I didn't want to interrupt blathering.
Speaker 1: By the way, go ahead. Will I enjoyed it?
Speaker 5: I'm laughing and I'm so I'm so torn here. I'll
Speaker 5: just I'll take the Titans plus the eight it was
Speaker 5: between that, and I'll go back to it again, same handicap.
Speaker 5: I just think their defensive line versus the Texans offensive
Speaker 5: line can give them some issues close game. I haven't
Speaker 5: loved what I've seen from the Texans. They do some
Speaker 5: strange things. They got away with it because Dallas was
Speaker 5: so inept on Monday. But I wasn't impressed with them Monday.
Speaker 5: I haven't been impressed them all year. They're just gonna
Speaker 5: They're just in the right division and they have just
Speaker 5: enough to, you know, to get it done. I think
Speaker 5: Mixing is somebody I thought was kind of washed with Cincy.
Speaker 5: He's played great, But I think Tennessee can stop the
Speaker 5: run here and just keep this game clos So what
Speaker 5: could go wrong? Tennessee Titans plus eight, looking for their
Speaker 5: second cover of the year somehow.
Speaker 1: Less your heart, Less your heart. We were doing a
Speaker 1: deep dive on a numbers game yesterday for fewest wins.
Speaker 1: DraftKings has fewest wins in the NFL when the season
Speaker 1: is all said and done, and it just was such
Speaker 1: a in case you didn't already know, right, there's like
Speaker 1: ten teams that have a shot at this The bottom
Speaker 1: of the NFL is so bad this year, and I
Speaker 1: think the favorite after we looked at the schedules, I
Speaker 1: think the short shot is, in fact the Cleveland Browns
Speaker 1: at plus three fifty. If they lose tonight, that will
Speaker 1: be cut in half for sure. I think the only
Speaker 1: other team that has a not the only other team,
Speaker 1: but I think the two bets that I would agree
Speaker 1: with are either Cleveland or the New York Giants. Who
Speaker 1: look at that remaining schedule and you're like, I don't
Speaker 1: know if there's a win on there for the Giants.
Speaker 1: They do play the Cowboys at Dallas next week. That's
Speaker 1: the only one. All the others, including the Jaguars, who
Speaker 1: have a half game lead over the field at two
Speaker 1: and nine. There's too many possible wins left on that schedule,
Speaker 1: and I have a feeling they're going to go to CJ.
Speaker 1: Bethard at some point, and Bethard's better than Max Jones.
Speaker 4: I think, so you do that.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of teams that suck, but I think
Speaker 1: it's the Browns of the Giants say again, or Trevor.
Speaker 2: Comes back, you're supposed to be back next week for
Speaker 2: Jacksonville or that.
Speaker 1: There you go.
Speaker 5: It's funny, though, some of these teams that are terrible.
Speaker 5: If you're a fan, you're like, oh, man, our team stinks.
Speaker 5: We got two wins, three wins. There's playing those teams,
Speaker 5: but like, hey, at least we're gonna get a good pick.
Speaker 5: Some of these teams that are terrible gonna be picking
Speaker 5: like eight tens. You're not even gonna get a good
Speaker 5: pick because there's so many other bad teams, which just
Speaker 5: adds injury to insult.
Speaker 1: Aaron, do you remember the league being this bottom heavy? Uh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been a long time since it was this
Speaker 2: bottom heavy. This is a particularly bottom heavy year.
Speaker 1: So bad that I bring that up because Will was
Speaker 1: was betting on the Titans, and I'm just like, man,
Speaker 1: are they They probably should have won a couple more
Speaker 1: games along the way, but they didn't, right, So now
Speaker 1: you wonder if they will. What it's like with all
Speaker 1: these teams that are two and nine, two and eight,
Speaker 1: three and seven or four and seven, Like the best
Speaker 1: they can be is four and thirteen when you go
Speaker 1: through their skin.
Speaker 6: All right, Raiders, Raiders are another one.
Speaker 1: Aaron, your final pick? Do we get?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Aaron's final pick?
Speaker 4: Then all right, go ahead? No time, Billy did it wrong?
Speaker 4: But go ahead?
Speaker 2: Well go ahead, Eric, I'll go with the Ravens, all
Speaker 2: the advanced metrics like the Ravens. I think the Ravens
Speaker 2: have this habit of losing close games because of penalties.
Speaker 2: I think if they lose to the Charges, it'll be close,
Speaker 2: but I think if they win, it will be big.
Speaker 2: So I'm not scared of a three point line because
Speaker 2: I think if like Ravens should be favored, and I
Speaker 2: think that if they win, it's not going to be
Speaker 2: by two or three, it's going to be by like fourteen.
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go with the Ravens minus three.
Speaker 1: It's going to be like a metaphorical John Harball giving
Speaker 1: Jim a nookie. That's what this is, older brother to younger.
Speaker 1: All right, Todd, you little whiner, you're your last pick.
Speaker 4: You know. It's interesting what Aaron just said, because what
Speaker 4: it reminded me of is the people that had the
Speaker 4: thing on Twitter that said you should play like an
Speaker 4: alt line ladder on the Lions last week, and you
Speaker 4: should like lay this amount for plus three hundred, this
Speaker 4: amount for plus four fifty, this amount for plus five fifty,
Speaker 4: and then of course yeah, yeah, So if you like
Speaker 4: what Aaron's is selling here with Baltimore to win by
Speaker 4: a lot, you might want to look at one of
Speaker 4: those ault lines, you know, and ladder it up like
Speaker 4: the Lions. You know, you kind of want a fortune
Speaker 4: in the lines game. I don't know if you agree
Speaker 4: with that, Aaron or not, but.
Speaker 2: No, I think when the Ravens, when they win big
Speaker 2: and when they lose, they lose close.
Speaker 4: So you would you agree with that idea of laddering up.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I like the idea of an alternate line, like a
Speaker 2: Ravens minus seven or a Ravens minus ten. Yeah, that'd
Speaker 2: be interesting.
Speaker 1: I don't do those other way.
Speaker 5: You never get the bang for your buck on those.
Speaker 5: I don't know if I don't look at them a lot.
Speaker 5: But even the ones last week, like people were laying
Speaker 5: thirty eight and a half with Detroit and I know
Speaker 5: it got home and it's nice to cash at twenty
Speaker 5: to one, but man, you're laying thirty eight and a
Speaker 5: half of the NFL game and I don't know. Just
Speaker 5: some of those, it doesn't feel like they give you
Speaker 5: the true odds.
Speaker 1: I rarely look at those myself here, by the way,
Speaker 1: besides Detroit, which is number one with a bullet in
Speaker 1: Aaron's DVOA through ten games, Baltimore is number two, Buffalo three,
Speaker 1: here's the one that I was surprised by, Minnesota four
Speaker 1: in Kansas City five. Wow. Vikings are tough to evaluate.
Speaker 2: To me, they've been on the decline in the last
Speaker 2: few weeks in the weighted where I lower the effect
Speaker 2: of the earlier games.
Speaker 5: They're only seventh, but they have such a history as
Speaker 5: coming through when it matters, so I'm sure they'll turn
Speaker 5: it around.
Speaker 4: Aaron, where do you have the Steelers.
Speaker 2: The Steelers are much lower in my numbers, like thirteenth
Speaker 2: or fourteenth.
Speaker 1: Wow, you know he's got a spot above your You
Speaker 1: know he's got a spot above your Steelers. Toddy the
Speaker 1: three time Super Bowl champion of Washington Redskins.
Speaker 4: Oh you mean the team with a quarterback who has
Speaker 4: no ribs left? You mean that quarter that team. He's
Speaker 4: definitely injured in his in his internal.
Speaker 1: Mid there's no question. Like people are like, hey, he's
Speaker 1: not doing well. He's so clearly not trying to run
Speaker 1: as much the last couple of weeks. You can tell.
Speaker 4: And he's not throwing the ball. He's not throwing the
Speaker 4: ball the same way with his like I saw that
Speaker 4: Chase Daniel thing on the film, and you can see
Speaker 4: he's not like like pulling into the throw real hard.
Speaker 4: I mean he's definitely hurt. I think he is.
Speaker 1: But anyways, there's no question.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I like you guys have said, you know what,
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna do this. This is great, Okay, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna go. I'm gonna hold my nose and I'm gonna
Speaker 4: go with the Antonio Piercers. Plus six and a half?
Speaker 4: Is that what I'm getting? Six and half? Am I
Speaker 4: getting six and a half there, it's kind.
Speaker 1: Of six six six. Don't go crazy.
Speaker 4: I'll take Antonio Peers, he of the back door cover.
Speaker 4: He has now done it twice and we've talked about
Speaker 4: it ad nauseum. On here mister Antonio Piers who looks
Speaker 4: at the magic eight ball and says, shall I go
Speaker 4: for it on fourth down? The magic eight ball? What
Speaker 4: have you to say?
Speaker 2: And then he goes down and Toni a Pearce's magic
Speaker 2: eight ball just says no on every.
Speaker 4: Side, although he did once Aaron go Ford Kansas City
Speaker 4: on a fourth and goal from the three, which we thought,
Speaker 4: where where did he come up with this? Because he
Speaker 4: always doesn't do that. Anyway, I'm going to take the
Speaker 4: Raiders plus the six. I'm going to hold my nose here.
Speaker 4: This is really this is really the theme of my week,
Speaker 4: which is fade teams that have looked amazing the last
Speaker 4: couple of weeks and buy low on ship bag teams.
Speaker 4: And you know, that's why I'm doing in Cleveland, and
Speaker 4: that's what I'm going to do here in Las Vegas.
Speaker 4: I just look, Do I want to take the Raiders?
Speaker 2: Of course not?
Speaker 4: But are the Broncos really this good? I mean, yeah,
Speaker 4: they almost beat the Chiefs. Very impressive win over Atlanta.
Speaker 4: I know everyone's getting all bonized about Bonecks and everything.
Speaker 4: Oh he's so great and everything, But are they really
Speaker 4: good enough to go on the road and win by six? Now? Granted,
Speaker 4: the Raiders stink, so of course they could. They did
Speaker 4: beat him thirty four eighteen in the early game, the
Speaker 4: first game they played this year. Actually, the Raiders kind
Speaker 4: of dominated the first quarter and a half of that game,
Speaker 4: and then the Broncos came on in Mile High or
Speaker 4: wherever they play those games now and killed him thirty
Speaker 4: four eighteen. But I'm just hoping the Raiders can hang around,
Speaker 4: hang around, be down twelve late and somehow, you know,
Speaker 4: Antonio gets us the magic touchdown at the end, or
Speaker 4: whether they're down nine and he decides to kick the
Speaker 4: field goal or whatever. I don't know. Just give me
Speaker 4: some Raiders love here, Raiders plus.
Speaker 1: Six Antonio Peers. The radio people know this. But I'm
Speaker 1: not sure if I mentioned on the megapot this year
Speaker 1: or not, but Antonio Piers lived in my complex here
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas. He was in the West tower. I
Speaker 1: was in the East tower, So I would I would
Speaker 1: frequently leave the building at the same time. He did
Speaker 1: in the off season, not during the regular season. He
Speaker 1: would leave earlier, and I could never work up the
Speaker 1: courage to talk to talk to him about his decisions
Speaker 1: because it's a very intimidating human being. And someone tweeted
Speaker 1: this week which I thought was the greatest tweet of
Speaker 1: the week, where they're like, because I said something negative
Speaker 1: about Antoniopiers and they're like, oh, he'll went to Antonio
Speaker 1: Piers's apartment and made age sure that every item was
Speaker 1: out of there before he finally said a critical word.
Speaker 1: It's not true. I would say a critical word to
Speaker 1: him on there's radio on the radio, just not to
Speaker 1: his face. But he's moved out, so I don't know
Speaker 1: what that means. I don't know where he went. You
Speaker 1: guys should have done something, yeah, getting that head coach
Speaker 1: to money, that's right, Yeah.
Speaker 2: You should have.
Speaker 5: You should have done something where you guys leave the
Speaker 5: building at the same time, but you switch jobs for
Speaker 5: a day where Antonio Piers the numbers game and you
Speaker 5: can coach the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Who do you think who do you think would have
Speaker 1: a rougher time him doing the show?
Speaker 4: Well, you know, Antonio Pierce was a a intern at
Speaker 4: the Howard Stern Show after being a New York Giant.
Speaker 4: I remember, I remember listening to this and he was
Speaker 4: an intern at the Howard Stern Show. I forget whether
Speaker 4: it was for a whole week or for a day,
Speaker 4: and it was fantastic.
Speaker 1: You're saying that would go better than Max Crosby dealing
Speaker 1: with me as the head coach of the Raiders.
Speaker 4: For a day, Jilly blowing the whistle, Hey, you get in,
Speaker 4: bring it in.
Speaker 1: It's getting mad at the Raiders, which will be like teasing.
Speaker 4: I want you guys to play like Joe Gibbs told
Speaker 4: the Skins to play.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go jumbo package, all right. Teaser of the week.
Speaker 1: God help me, I'm so has there ever been a
Speaker 1: worse performance than my teaser performance this week?
Speaker 6: This year?
Speaker 4: God?
Speaker 2: I'm going with the defend myself against the back door
Speaker 2: cover teaser, which would be Chiefs minus five at Carolina
Speaker 2: and Texans minus two at home against Tennessee.
Speaker 4: AC minus five and what was the other one?
Speaker 2: Texans minus two?
Speaker 1: I think you had Texans minus one and a half
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: The idea there is these teams are good enough to win,
Speaker 2: but they might take their foot off the gas at
Speaker 2: the end. So I don't want to go eleven points
Speaker 2: with Kansas City, but I could go five.
Speaker 4: Speaking of which, I think we should all play the team.
Speaker 4: We should all play the Carolina team total under this week.
Speaker 4: How is Carolina going to get to how many points
Speaker 4: do they need? Sixteen? What do they need this week? Carolina?
Speaker 4: I don't see it again.
Speaker 1: Seen seventeen and a half is juice.
Speaker 5: It's almost like it's right around as I looked last
Speaker 5: night on another show fifteen and a half, which is
Speaker 5: kind of a dead number, but you can get like
Speaker 5: a fourteen and a half at a reasonable number, so
Speaker 5: they're kind of making you pay for it. But I mean,
Speaker 5: two touchdowns in a field might be tough. Young has
Speaker 5: looked a little at least a little better, like he's
Speaker 5: had a pulse, but that's still probably not a bad bet.
Speaker 4: I still don't think and we don't do team totals
Speaker 4: obviously on the show. I think Carolina team total under
Speaker 4: is the best bet of the week. I just don't
Speaker 4: see them scoring on Spagnola. But anyways, my teaser is
Speaker 4: going to be the La Chargers plus eight and a half,
Speaker 4: So I'm going against I'm going against what Aaron has
Speaker 4: told me here, but I just have a feeling that
Speaker 4: the Harbaugh Harrba we're gonna somehow, they're gonna hang around.
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with the LA Chargers because I
Speaker 4: don't like the Ravens defense. I just can't stand the
Speaker 4: Ravens defense, so I feel like they're always exposed to
Speaker 4: backdoor touchdowns. Give me the LA Clippers US eight and
Speaker 4: a half, and I'm gonna take it with the Detroit
Speaker 4: endless Wings minus one and a half against Indy, So
Speaker 4: that'll be my teaser the week. I just don't see
Speaker 4: Indy winning the game. Maybe they can cover it, but
Speaker 4: I don't see them winning the game. So give me
Speaker 4: Lions minus one and a half.
Speaker 5: Willie Oho Lions, Dolphins, Dolphins over the Patriots.
Speaker 6: I think they still have a you know, a habit.
Speaker 5: I've taken care of a business against these middling to
Speaker 5: lesser teams like the Patriots. So Dolphins to win, basically,
Speaker 5: Lions to win. Hopefully get this one in the bank
Speaker 5: and get on.
Speaker 6: Track here with the teasers.
Speaker 4: So officially, officially it's Dolphins minus one and a half
Speaker 4: Lions minus one and a half.
Speaker 5: Wow, you're not gonna screw me on the lines for
Speaker 5: a change. That's that's just this is new Well.
Speaker 1: Because he's right, that's right, the Lions. The Lions thing
Speaker 1: scares me for some reason. I don't know. Why shouldn't
Speaker 1: put it? Does Downies Niners? What could go wrong?
Speaker 6: All right?
Speaker 4: Wait, so you're going Brownies up to nine and a half,
Speaker 4: then you're going with the Niners. You are still Gilly's
Speaker 4: the last person off the Niners boat. If you know Niners,
Speaker 4: he's never getting off that Niners boat. Why Gilly, why
Speaker 4: will you not get off the Niners boat?
Speaker 1: You know what, You're one hundred percent right that it's irrational.
Speaker 1: They cannot field a full football team no matter how
Speaker 1: hard they try. Somebody comes back, somebody gets hurt, and
Speaker 1: it just might be that year, you know. But if
Speaker 1: something's going to happen, it's going to be this week.
Speaker 1: And if they were to beat the Packers, everybody would
Speaker 1: change their tune instantly. On the nine. I agree with
Speaker 1: you because on Pio right, because on paper, they still
Speaker 1: have more talent if it's all on the field, than
Speaker 1: almost anybody.
Speaker 6: They just have the margin for air.
Speaker 5: Yeah, they're they're running out of margin air too with
Speaker 5: their schedule with Lions and Bills, and this week it's
Speaker 5: probably going to have to get to ten wins because
Speaker 5: their tiebreaker scenario is not great, but they're running out
Speaker 5: of time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Purdy's on the injury report now too. It's like anyway,
Speaker 1: that's my teaser, which brings us to our final two
Speaker 1: questions of each and every megapod. Final two questions, the
Speaker 1: first of which is which of the big favorites is
Speaker 1: the most likely to lose? Outright, here are your candidates.
Speaker 1: The Detroit Lions seven and a half point favorites at
Speaker 1: the Indianapolis Colts, the Chiefs ten and a half point
Speaker 1: favorites at the Carolina Panthers. Remember this has nothing to
Speaker 1: do with the spread. I'm just giving you the candidate
Speaker 1: Commodores ten point favorites at home against the Cowboys, just
Speaker 1: the fifth time since I have been a human being
Speaker 1: that the Commodores have been double digit favorites against the
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys nineteen eighty nine, nineteen ninety, nineteen ninety one,
Speaker 1: two thousand as a Brad Johnson team, And this week,
Speaker 1: candidate number two the Dolphins seven and a half point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Patriots, Texans seven and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites at home against the Titans. I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna throw in the Broncos because I don't wanna. I
Speaker 1: don't want to pollute that group. Those are your choices, Aaron.
Speaker 1: Who's the most likely of those of that group to
Speaker 1: lose outrights?
Speaker 2: Miami, Miami, Miami, because I don't think their defense is good,
Speaker 2: And because Drake May seems like the kind of guy
Speaker 2: right now who has a wide range of possibilities where
Speaker 2: he could throw three picks or he could just make
Speaker 2: a couple of just outstanding, ridiculous plays. So I would say,
Speaker 2: of those of those underdogs, the one that's most likely
Speaker 2: to win outright is the Patriots.
Speaker 1: How would you characterize the general consensus New England sports
Speaker 1: fan view of him at this point? We got the guy,
Speaker 1: we got the guy, Okay, Todd.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Broncos. Does Broncos one of
Speaker 4: the choices?
Speaker 1: No? I took it out on purpose so you couldn't
Speaker 1: use it.
Speaker 4: Oh, Okay, So then I I'm gonna then I'm gonna
Speaker 4: agree with uh. I'm gonna go with Aaron's call. I
Speaker 4: just don't think Capri Pants has it all locked down
Speaker 4: enough to the fact to the place where he's for
Speaker 4: sure gonna win games he's supposed to win. So I
Speaker 4: could totally see him, you know, looking in his card
Speaker 4: and ruining the game. So I'll go with Miami. Also,
Speaker 4: you hate Mike xcuse me? Oh, I don't hate him,
Speaker 4: I have I actually don't hate him. I just don't
Speaker 4: think he's next level coaching, and clearly he shouldn't be
Speaker 4: wearing pre pants. But that's the only thing I don't
Speaker 4: like about it. Do you think he was up for
Speaker 4: six in the fourth quarter he would throw the ball
Speaker 4: to No, he would run the ball, because that's what
Speaker 4: you're supposed to do in the fourth quarter. You're supposed
Speaker 4: to take your starter out if you're up forty two
Speaker 4: to six because he could get hurt.
Speaker 6: Yeah, he's done that, Kiffen. I don't know if you've
Speaker 6: ever seen that in college.
Speaker 5: I will go with the Titans over the Texans.
Speaker 4: Reasons. Willie Lank through the ball against Furman seventy six
Speaker 4: to nothing in the fourth quarter with the fourth string quarterback.
Speaker 4: He's throwing the ball trying to get over eighty And
Speaker 4: for me, that is the most egregious action you could
Speaker 4: possibly take on a football field.
Speaker 2: Now, come on, don't the fourth string quarterback deserve to
Speaker 2: get to throw a couple passes too?
Speaker 4: You know what, Aaron may be in his own side
Speaker 4: of the field, but not.
Speaker 2: From quarterback to point of view, rather than from the
Speaker 2: coach's point of view.
Speaker 4: What was what about the winning seventy six to nothing
Speaker 4: against Furman? It's ridiculous. I took tea.
Speaker 6: I don't have I didn't have any reasons though.
Speaker 1: You took the Texans.
Speaker 6: Okay, Texans Texas.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am going to say, you ready for this,
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen, the Detroit Lion.
Speaker 6: Oh.
Speaker 1: I just have a feeling. It's like a blink Malcolm
Speaker 1: Gladwell blink thing. I can't really explain it. I just
Speaker 1: it's fifty years of watching football. Something in my head
Speaker 1: is telling me something might be question.
Speaker 4: For Hushem Karma. If you're going to be forty two,
Speaker 4: Hashem Karma would definitely say, if you're up forty two
Speaker 4: to six and you're throwing the ball, you deserve to
Speaker 4: lose the following week because of obnoxious behavior. You know
Speaker 4: what happened to sportsmanship? What happened to sportsmanship in sports
Speaker 4: at thirty five six, you shouldn't even be throwing forget
Speaker 4: forty two sick? Is sportsmanship completely dead? What happened to like,
Speaker 4: you know, you don't have to embarrass the other guy?
Speaker 1: Is that?
Speaker 4: Is that gone in life? Now? Has that just been totally?
Speaker 4: Is that over? Now? What happened to that?
Speaker 2: Am I seriously the only one of us who lived
Speaker 2: through the year two thousand and seven?
Speaker 4: It was wrong then, Aaron? It wasn't right then, wasn't Aaron? No,
Speaker 4: it wasn't Ji.
Speaker 1: This is not new, This is not new Belichick.
Speaker 5: Belichick was annoyed because the spygate, remember, and he wanted to.
Speaker 4: You don't think that was why?
Speaker 2: No, I don't think. I don't know whether it was
Speaker 2: spygate or what. I just they just I just remember
Speaker 2: the complaints. I just remember the complaints.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Before we're okay.
Speaker 4: Can we just ask Karon what his biggest surprise of
Speaker 4: the NFL season has been, opinion? Because I'd love to
Speaker 4: hear that.
Speaker 2: I mean, I I think it's Washington because maybe because uh,
Speaker 2: I said, one of the rookie quarterbacks is going to
Speaker 2: be really good. We don't know which one it is.
Speaker 2: And it turns out that the answer was it was Daniels.
Speaker 1: I think you're more oppressient calls. Was that you said,
Speaker 1: at least one or two of the second year guys
Speaker 1: is not going to be good?
Speaker 2: I said, is like a rookie. I said, Richardson is
Speaker 2: like a rookie. He could suck like a rookie. He's
Speaker 2: basically like a rookie. And he did suck. Yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So who is your biggest surprise On the downside,
Speaker 4: getting a lot of work out of here?
Speaker 2: Dallas and the Patriots defense. I thought the Patriots would
Speaker 2: have a top ten defense. Their defense is horrifyingly bad.
Speaker 1: The Cowboys thing is fascinating because I feel like a
Speaker 1: lot of people now are like, oh, yeah, totally, I
Speaker 1: could totally see this coming, could we?
Speaker 2: It was a team that won twelve games the last
Speaker 2: three years? What do you mean you see this coming?
Speaker 1: I agree. I'm like people are being way too nonchalant
Speaker 1: about this to me, where it's like, oh, yeah, Jerry sucks, well,
Speaker 1: Jerry does suck, but it's like, did you really think
Speaker 1: they'd be this bad? And it's just an incredible collapse.
Speaker 5: And once every three or four years they have one
Speaker 5: of these years where like Romo would get hurt or
Speaker 5: Dak would get hurt and the wheels come off and
Speaker 5: then they bounce back next year. Maybe that's why, because
Speaker 5: we've seen this before once every few years with that,
Speaker 5: maybe I don't.
Speaker 4: Know, Billy. They were minus thirteen against the Redskins late
Speaker 4: last year and now they're plus ten against the Redskins.
Speaker 4: It's an incredible have you ever seen that ever? In
Speaker 4: two years?
Speaker 1: On guessing lines, I said Washington minus seven. Kelly tells
Speaker 1: me Washington minus ten, and I just start giggling because
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's not in my DNA to guess that
Speaker 1: Washington will be a double digit favorite over Dallas. That's amazing.
Speaker 5: I consider Dallas as one of my picks, but I
Speaker 5: couldn't do it.
Speaker 1: Hey, listen, I dare you? Okay? Final question? We live
Speaker 1: in a bizarro world, Aaron, where we are forced to
Speaker 1: bet a side on every single game that's on the
Speaker 1: NFL slate for a given a week. But you are
Speaker 1: allowed one free pass, one game that you want want
Speaker 1: no part of on the line. What game with it?
Speaker 2: Rams? Eagles?
Speaker 1: Rams? That's as good a choice as any What that
Speaker 1: was it? You will last week? I said, what the
Speaker 1: hell are the Rams? Are they good?
Speaker 4: Are they good?
Speaker 1: What are they?
Speaker 6: I can't figure out the Rams.
Speaker 1: Hell.
Speaker 2: I know what the Eagles are, but I don't know
Speaker 2: what the Rams are. And I think that this line
Speaker 2: being three points is about perfect, and I think that
Speaker 2: the over undertow being about fifty is about perfect. And
Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to have any part of it.
Speaker 1: Who is the most What the fuck team? Is it
Speaker 1: the Rams or is it like the Colts? Like what,
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of those two, right?
Speaker 2: The team?
Speaker 1: Yeah, but we still think they're good, right, like I'm
Speaker 1: the Rams are When they do.
Speaker 2: Don't like lose to the Raiders, it's like, what the
Speaker 2: hell is going on?
Speaker 1: True? That's for sure? True Todd, same question, What game
Speaker 1: we want no part of?
Speaker 4: Much like Baller TV, which is the TV network that
Speaker 4: we have to pay money to watch East Carolina against Jacksonville. Say,
Speaker 4: I have no idea what Baller TV is, and I
Speaker 4: also have no idea what's going on in the Chicago
Speaker 4: locker room. So therefore I will avoid the Chicago Minnesota
Speaker 4: Viking game.
Speaker 1: Wilson Hillson Chiefs Panthers.
Speaker 5: I could see this being one of these Chiefs where
Speaker 5: they chief games where they just kind of sludged through
Speaker 5: it and it's somehow a seven point game late in
Speaker 5: typical Chiefs not covering big numbers, or I could see
Speaker 5: this being, you know, twenty seven to seven Chiefs get
Speaker 5: on track. He's moved the ball here and then motivated
Speaker 5: after a loss. So I have no interest either side
Speaker 5: of that game.
Speaker 1: I could literally pick ten games this week for this,
Speaker 1: like every Sunday game, because I have no conviction on
Speaker 1: it him. I'm gonna say it is the Washington Taco
Speaker 1: Holders against the Dallas Cowboys. I don't know. I could
Speaker 1: see Washington blowing them out, or I could see the
Speaker 1: Cowboys actually keeping it close. The problem with the Cowboys
Speaker 1: the other night was for as cosmetic as that final
Speaker 1: score scened, like Houston in a blowout, Cooper Rush did
Speaker 1: throw to use your acronym, Todd, he threw about four
Speaker 1: or five inches in that game interceptions that should have happened,
Speaker 1: and it was like Houston could have destroyed him that
Speaker 1: way too, but they didn't. They kept dropping. So I'll
Speaker 1: say Washington in doubt.
Speaker 4: Aaron.
Speaker 1: Your Twitter handle once again is do I have this
Speaker 1: right a shot? L Yeah?
Speaker 2: Ah Atz NFL.
Speaker 1: A Shots, NFL, FTN Sports is where he does his
Speaker 1: thing once again. The FTN go to Twitter handle is
Speaker 1: FDN Fantasy.
Speaker 2: FTN Fantasy is the main ur l and the main
Speaker 2: handle at this point. Yeah, we've sort of merged everything,
Speaker 2: even though we do betting and we do dfs and
Speaker 2: we do DVOA, and we've kind of merged it all
Speaker 2: under the FTN Fantasy banner.
Speaker 1: All right, Aaron, always a pleasure man. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: Great having you on this show. You remember the first
Speaker 1: time you came on the megapod. It's one of your
Speaker 1: more famous lines ever that we still quote to this day,
Speaker 1: which is after about five minutes. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you remember you're saying this. After five minutes, you go,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to get used to the rhythm of
Speaker 1: this podcast. That's one of the great lines ever. The rhythm.
Speaker 1: That was a shot at you, Todd, That's what it was.
Speaker 2: Well, this podcasts definitely mega.
Speaker 1: It's definitely definitely mega whatever that whatever mega entails Todd
Speaker 1: Wishnev from his mom's cork Attic in Pittsburgh, PA. Will
Speaker 1: Hill should have bet more podcasts, Aaron, what is your
Speaker 1: you go live on Twitter. I see that come up.
Speaker 2: Also Monday. Monday and Thursday at eleven am Eastern, me
Speaker 2: and Mike Tanier on YouTube and Twitter do our FTN
Speaker 2: shots into near NFL podcasts. So yeah, Mondays and Thursdays
Speaker 2: eleven am Eastern.
Speaker 6: I got a cute up by listen every week. It's great.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it pops up on my thing and I keep
Speaker 1: meaning to hit on it. I'm like, what's thereon doing? Okay,
Speaker 1: a numbers game today.
Speaker 4: Break lead sixty one seven. We're five thirty three to play.
Speaker 4: As long as we can stay out of the bow zone,
Speaker 4: We're gonna leave this.
Speaker 2: One when Drake is leading. That's called God's plan.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets. Week twelve, Ashitt, good
Speaker 1: bye
Speaker 3: Ba Bang Docta basa the Saban Batang doct