Speaker 1: Hey, Odd Loots listeners. This episode, you're about to hear
Speaker 1: us from another podcast here at Bloomberg, the Big Take
Speaker 1: Asia podcast.
Speaker 2: And in this episode you are going to hear about
Speaker 2: China's efforts to dominate industries of the future. Specifically, it
Speaker 2: is looking at China's ten years old Made in China
Speaker 2: Plan to see how the country is actually faring when
Speaker 2: it comes to advancing key technologies.
Speaker 1: This episode of Big Take Asia will give you a
Speaker 1: preview of the next episode of Odd Lots, arriving on Thursday,
Speaker 1: when we'll speak with co authors of a new Bloomberg report.
Speaker 1: We're going to be speaking with Bloomberg's Asia Government and
Speaker 1: Politics correspondent Rebecca Chune Wilkins as well as Bloomberg Economic
Speaker 1: analyst Gerard de Pippo.
Speaker 2: They will help us unpack the China twenty twenty five
Speaker 2: plan and what their research has uncovered. In the meantime,
Speaker 2: enjoy this episode of The Big Take Asia Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts,
Speaker 2: Radio News.
Speaker 3: The US presidential election is a week away and the
Speaker 3: contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could not be tighter.
Speaker 3: The two candidates are going head to head on everything
Speaker 3: from the economy to immigration, but one area they agree
Speaker 3: on is the need to curb China's rise.
Speaker 4: We've got hundreds of billions of dollars just from China alone,
Speaker 4: and I haven't even started yet. But taris are two
Speaker 4: things if you look at it. Number one is for
Speaker 4: protection of the companies that we have.
Speaker 5: Here in a policy about China should be in making
Speaker 5: sure the United States of America wins the competition for
Speaker 5: the twenty first century, which means focusing on the details
Speaker 5: of what that requires, focusing on relationships with our allies,
Speaker 5: focusing on investing in American based technology.
Speaker 3: So how is the US doing versus China, which superpower
Speaker 3: is leading the race for dominance of the twenty first century?
Speaker 3: Rebecca Chung Wilkins, Bloomberg's Asia Government and Politics correspondent, says
Speaker 3: a good way to try to answer this question is
Speaker 3: by looking at the key emerging technologies that China identified
Speaker 3: as its priority back in twenty fifteen when it announced
Speaker 3: it's made in China twenty twenty five plan are came
Speaker 3: and when you look at that plan now nearly a
Speaker 3: decade later, new research by Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 3: shows that made in China twenty twenty five has largely
Speaker 3: been a success.
Speaker 6: So of the thirteen key technologies tracked by Bloomberg researchers,
Speaker 6: China has achieved a global leadership position in five of
Speaker 6: them and is catching up fast in seven others.
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big tich Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm wanh.
Speaker 3: Every week we take you inside some of the world's
Speaker 3: biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tyccoons and
Speaker 3: businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today on the show,
Speaker 3: how did China get ahead in key technological advances despite
Speaker 3: US efforts to prevent that from happening? And would a
Speaker 3: Harris or Trump administration change that? Rebecca says back in
Speaker 3: twenty fifteen, when the Maiden China Plan was announced by
Speaker 3: the Chinese Communist Party, it was all about helping the
Speaker 3: country achieve two big goals.
Speaker 6: One is this self sufficiency, not wanting to be reliant
Speaker 6: on other countries, and is preparing for any kind of
Speaker 6: scenario where, for example, China might be cut off from
Speaker 6: say its energy supply or whatever it might be. And China,
Speaker 6: more broady does have a sort of preoccupation or prevailing
Speaker 6: concern with preserving its own security, so standing on its
Speaker 6: own two feet, and the second is becoming increasingly competitive
Speaker 6: and in fact a globe leader in some of these
Speaker 6: key strategic areas. So there's both a sort of inward
Speaker 6: and an outward element to the maiden in China plan.
Speaker 3: The plan highlighted ten priority sectors for the nation to
Speaker 3: focus on, including aerospace equipment, energy saving cars, biomedicine, and
Speaker 3: high end machine tools and robots. And now, almost ten
Speaker 3: years later, according to the analysis by Bloomberg, China has
Speaker 3: in fact become a global leader in many of these
Speaker 3: key areas.
Speaker 6: So those sectors include solar panels, unmanned aero vehicles, those
Speaker 6: are drones, graphene which is a coating material that's using
Speaker 6: tons and tons of sectors, high speed rail, and electric vehicles.
Speaker 3: Now, does China have any natural advantages that makes it
Speaker 3: possible that it's been able to take leading positions in
Speaker 3: these sectors or is this simply by design and the
Speaker 3: will of Beijing?
Speaker 6: Well as worth saying that even in twenty fifteen, China,
Speaker 6: as we determine, was already a global leader in three
Speaker 6: of them these sectors, in graphene, solar panels, and in
Speaker 6: unmanned area of vehicles, so they had a sort of
Speaker 6: somewhat of a headstart in any case. But the other
Speaker 6: important element here to remember, I think, is that when
Speaker 6: Beijing does signal out an area for support, when it
Speaker 6: signals out a key policy priority, it really is able
Speaker 6: to throw the full weight of its economy essentially behind that. So,
Speaker 6: for example, if it decides that electric vehicles are a priority,
Speaker 6: say it can ask banks to lend it credit cheaply.
Speaker 6: It can get local governments to lease it land cheaply
Speaker 6: or perhaps even at no or low cost. It can
Speaker 6: also get large state owned enterprises to use the sort
Speaker 6: of full force of its resources, it talents, and direct
Speaker 6: it towards those industries. So you know, Beijing has an
Speaker 6: incredibly sort of powerful basis here, an incredibly powerful set
Speaker 6: of resources to direct towards these industries when it has
Speaker 6: selected these priorities.
Speaker 3: This is one key area where China hasn't caught up
Speaker 3: to the US, and that's in advanced semiconductors. That's in
Speaker 3: part because of some key things the US has done
Speaker 3: to keep its rival from catching up.
Speaker 6: There's sort of three big tools for economic stakecraft that
Speaker 6: we've seen. One of them is tariffs, imposing these high
Speaker 6: costs for imports coming into the US, sometimes prohibitively high.
Speaker 6: The second are export controls, essentially trying to prevent the
Speaker 6: transfer of US technology, goods, services overseas to other parts
Speaker 6: of the world. And the final part of that are
Speaker 6: financial sanctions. The big area where we can say that
Speaker 6: some of the US export controls and so on have
Speaker 6: been more effective is in sort of high advanced semiconductors.
Speaker 6: And it's important to remember in this context such just
Speaker 6: a handful of companies involved in this kind of really
Speaker 6: advanced semiconductor tech manufacturing. And it's fair to say the
Speaker 6: Biden administrations they have been successful in building consensus among
Speaker 6: allies among other countries trying to contain China's access to semiconductors.
Speaker 6: And so we saw Dutch companies, Japanese companies essentially falling
Speaker 6: in line in preventing China from accessing the actual products
Speaker 6: needed to manufacture these types of chips.
Speaker 3: And in light of that of the US having allies
Speaker 3: to support its approach to trade on China and its
Speaker 3: approach to contain China, what is China done to make
Speaker 3: sure it has access to the technologies it needs.
Speaker 6: China's actually has been stoppiling like that. That's the sort
Speaker 6: of fundamental basis of this. They're stop piling a record
Speaker 6: amount of semiconductor equipment, and that includes these high end
Speaker 6: video chips. If preparing essentially for a number of further curbs.
Speaker 6: It's looking further out thinking if we see these kind
Speaker 6: of moves accelerate, if they're expanded, where will we be
Speaker 6: and how do we try and future proof against that.
Speaker 3: But it's not just semiconductors where the UA is trying
Speaker 3: to use export controls to slow China down. After the break,
Speaker 3: a look at the other tools the US is using
Speaker 3: and will a new administration keep them going. The US
Speaker 3: has leaned on its allies to limit China's access to
Speaker 3: advanced technologies like semiconductors. Meanwhile, the US is also concerned
Speaker 3: about its ability to be a leader in other sectors
Speaker 3: as well. Some of these areas were outlined back in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two by National security advisor Jake Sullivan.
Speaker 7: Computing related technologies, biotech, clean tech are true force multipliers
Speaker 7: through the tech ecosystem, and leadership in each of these
Speaker 7: areas is a national security imperative. We're investing in the
Speaker 7: industries of the future and strengthening the resilience and security
Speaker 7: of our supply chains.
Speaker 3: Sullivan calls these technologies a national security imperative. Bloomberg's Rebecca
Speaker 3: Chung Wilkins says that's an important thing to take note
Speaker 3: of because over time she's seen a change in the
Speaker 3: way the US talks about the need to restrain China.
Speaker 6: Yeah. I think in the early days of the trade war,
Speaker 6: a lot of the focus was on the sort of wrongdoing,
Speaker 6: as they alleged of Chinese companies, But over time that
Speaker 6: has really morphed into this whole discussion over national security
Speaker 6: and increasingly this focus on China's preparedness for a war.
Speaker 6: And in fact we've almost seen the true real concerns
Speaker 6: at the heart of some of these economic policies over
Speaker 6: sort of military might. Essentially, it's this question of deterrence
Speaker 6: whether or not Beijing and Washington will essentially adopt this
Speaker 6: idea that the cost of this trade conflict and trade
Speaker 6: war and the cost of this increase in competition are
Speaker 6: worth it or not. It comes sort of, I suppose,
Speaker 6: to this fundamental question of to what extent both sides
Speaker 6: feel that their own national security is fundamentally at risk.
Speaker 3: On the campaign trio, Trump and Harris have advocated different
Speaker 3: approaches towards China, even as both agree on the need
Speaker 3: to thwart its rise. I asked Rebecca what Trump currently
Speaker 3: has in mind here.
Speaker 6: Well, we just in a way have just seen an amplification,
Speaker 6: perhaps unsurprisingly, of some of his previous policies. He's mentioned
Speaker 6: this possibility of sixty percent tariffs across all Chinese imports
Speaker 6: into the US.
Speaker 3: But it would be crazy high.
Speaker 6: That would be crazy high, and it would really hurt
Speaker 6: the Chinese economy. One Bank, for example, estimates that it
Speaker 6: could essentially har Chinese GDP growth, So it would really
Speaker 6: be a significant hit to China, but also a significant
Speaker 6: hit to the US if that then results in a
Speaker 6: higher cost of goods.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg's editor in chief John Mikkelswaet pressed Trump on that
Speaker 3: point in an interview earlier this month.
Speaker 8: You're talking about sixty percent trade on that, sixty perent
Speaker 8: tariffs on that, You're talking, as you said, one hundred
Speaker 8: two hundred percent or things you don't really like. You're
Speaker 8: also talking about ten to twenty percent tariffs on the
Speaker 8: rest of the world. That is going to have a
Speaker 8: serious effect on the overall economy, and yes, you're going
Speaker 8: to find some people who were gained from individual tariffs.
Speaker 8: The overall effect could be massive.
Speaker 4: I agree, it's going to have a massive effect. Positive effect.
Speaker 4: It's going to be a positive Let me just no, no,
Speaker 4: let me committed.
Speaker 6: The other thing to remember with Trump is that he
Speaker 6: has taken a more protectionist stance. Writ large, he's not
Speaker 6: just concerned about Chinese imports, but he's concerned about imports
Speaker 6: from everyone, including, for example, the European Union.
Speaker 3: What do we know about Harris's approach if she wins.
Speaker 6: Well, Harris's approach we expect to be more consistent with
Speaker 6: the Biden administrations. I will say she too has focused
Speaker 6: on this idea of jobs and sort of American industrial policy,
Speaker 6: trying essentially to build up some of those manufacturing bases. Again,
Speaker 6: She's been critical of Trump's proposed tariffs, but she has
Speaker 6: been quite firm on some of the national security risks
Speaker 6: that the US faces.
Speaker 3: So, Rebecca, is either approach really doing a great job
Speaker 3: in containing China's tech development.
Speaker 6: Well, if we look at the success of the Biden
Speaker 6: administration and we look just going back to the beginning
Speaker 6: at some of those maiden China targets. For example, we
Speaker 6: can see that actually they aren't successful, or they haven't
Speaker 6: been successful in certain key areas if we exclude semiconductors.
Speaker 6: Actually trade has found a way to get through sanctions
Speaker 6: haven't been hugely successful. So that's one question for Harris
Speaker 6: that this need to perhaps recalibrate the approach.
Speaker 3: Despite the US efforts to slow down China, the world
Speaker 3: outside the US is increasingly driving Chinese evs, surfing on
Speaker 3: Chinese smartphones, and powering their homes with Chinese solar panels,
Speaker 3: and Rebecca says there might be better approaches for the
Speaker 3: US to maintain its competitiveness.
Speaker 6: One approach to thinking about what would be more effective
Speaker 6: than sanctions is this idea that Adam Posen from the
Speaker 6: Peterson Institute has mentioned, which is suction not sanctions. Essentially
Speaker 6: that the US should be making use and taking up talent, resources,
Speaker 6: innovation coming from China and partnering with it in order
Speaker 6: to advance its own industries and its own key sectors.
Speaker 3: So basically taking away all the talents so that the
Speaker 3: US makes use of.
Speaker 6: It, taking the best of what China has developed, and
Speaker 6: then building on that to develop and innovate at a
Speaker 6: faster pace.
Speaker 3: This is the Big Take Asia from bloom News. I'm
Speaker 3: wan ha. If you'd like to hear more about Bloomberg's
Speaker 3: research on the Maiden China Plan, check out the conversation
Speaker 3: on Odd Lots with my colleagues Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway.
Speaker 9: The other thing that happened that I think was actually
Speaker 9: a bigger deal from the Chinese perspective was when the
Speaker 9: US added Huawei to the Commerce Department's entity list in
Speaker 9: early twenty nineteen, Because what that signal was that the
Speaker 9: United States was effectively trying to kill what was arguably
Speaker 9: China's best global technology company. The US would say, We're
Speaker 9: not trying to kill it, but the restrictions are pretty draconian,
Speaker 9: and there is very much that vibe.
Speaker 3: And check out our last episode where you can hear
Speaker 3: more about one critical market that China's focusing on EVS
Speaker 3: and how one Chinese carmaker BYD is dominating the electric
Speaker 3: auto market globally. That's on our Big Take Asia feet.
Speaker 3: This episode was produced by Young Young, Jessica Beck and Naomi.
Speaker 3: It was mixed by Alex Sugiera and fact checked by
Speaker 3: Eddie Dun was edited by Caitlin Kenny and Daniel Tan
Speaker 3: Kate Maoy Shaven as our senior producer, Elizabeth Ponso is
Speaker 3: our senior editor, Nicole Beemster Bower is our executive producer,
Speaker 3: and Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please follow
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Speaker 3: It really helps new listeners find the show. See you
Speaker 3: next time,