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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out so spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 2: It's a cash touchtop. That's all we see.

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Speaker 1: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to win.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 3: If you want to.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, Welcome to the Auction Network Podcast presented by

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Speaker 3: Draft Kings. I am your host, Evin Abrams, and I

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Speaker 3: am joined by Brandon Anderson for our NFL recap show

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Speaker 3: for Week eight. We will discuss what we saw today,

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Speaker 3: look ahead briefly to Monday night's game with the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: and the Commanders. Plus we will get Brandon's hot read

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Speaker 3: for next week. But before we start, I will empty

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Speaker 3: out my notebook some of the things that I saw

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Speaker 3: today in terms of outliers, trends, streaks, things of that nature.

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Speaker 3: Before we get into Sunday Night football. Well, I guess

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Speaker 3: today most buys we will have all year. So in

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Speaker 3: terms of the quality of football, which will be a

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Speaker 3: topic today on this show, wasn't fantastic and it was

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Speaker 3: the fewest teams we will see play out. The funny

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Speaker 3: thing is we had talked about in previous shows the

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Speaker 3: NFC dominating the AFC. Well they said it on Sunday

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Speaker 3: Night Football. AFC now six and one straight up versus

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Speaker 3: the NFC today, a win by the Steelers would have

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Speaker 3: made that seven and other best mark we've ever seen.

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Speaker 3: So definitely something of a change there, And I think

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Speaker 3: the biggest topic and I just tweeted it out before

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Speaker 3: we went on here, but favorites this week now ten

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Speaker 3: and two straight up and against the spread nineteen and

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Speaker 3: eight over the last two weeks. But if the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: do cover on Monday Night football against Commanders, it'll be

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Speaker 3: the best win percentage for favorites I've seen in the

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Speaker 3: last forty years. And tomorrow going to try to find

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Speaker 3: the last time we had no win percentage at high

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Speaker 3: but at least in the last forty years. And I'll

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Speaker 3: end with this. Overs also nine and three this week,

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Speaker 3: eighteen and nine over the last two weeks. So if

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Speaker 3: you've been just throwing out favorites and overs, you're pretty

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Speaker 3: much if I'm doing math right, like, I don't know,

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Speaker 3: thirty five and seventeen over the last two weeks. So

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Speaker 3: some ridiculous numbers there, Brandon, what do you make of

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Speaker 3: kind of this run that favorites and overs are on.

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Speaker 3: It feels like just kind of an anomaly in like

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Speaker 3: a two or three week span. But I'll say this,

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Speaker 3: Favorites are thirty two to ten straight up since week six,

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Speaker 3: so it feels like it's a little bit of a run.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think favorites tend to be best

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Speaker 2: in October, if I remember right, the Usually you kind

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Speaker 2: of get the underdogs early, underdogs late, but favorites kind

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Speaker 2: of do bite back a little bit around now. But

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Speaker 2: it's not this much. Usually this is a cert amount

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Speaker 2: and it's yeah, it was. It was not a great

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Speaker 2: day of football, Like I almost you know, I kind

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Speaker 2: of forgot about the bye week until you mentioned it.

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Speaker 2: My brain as I heard that was like, oh thank god,

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Speaker 2: at least that was three more games we'd have to

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Speaker 2: pay attention to today, like it was a rough out there.

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Speaker 2: But you know, we're here, we're talking football. We will

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Speaker 2: talk some takeaways and not necessarily, you know, it's not

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Speaker 2: about what happened today, but what happened today that matters tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: what happens that matters next week, the games ahead. We'll

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Speaker 2: get to the hot read later on good to Monday

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Speaker 2: Night Football later on as well. So yeah, favorites keep rolling,

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Speaker 2: but you know, the NFL is and not for long,

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Speaker 2: so we'll see how long that lasts. About the time

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Speaker 2: that you decided to just bet all the favorites is

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Speaker 2: the week that it's going to bounce back the other way,

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Speaker 2: So we know that's coming.

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Speaker 3: I will say this, So teams who trailed at the half,

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Speaker 3: which actually had been good second half ats entering this week,

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Speaker 3: they were sixty one and forty one. Today or this

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Speaker 3: week they went two and ten. So that really went

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Speaker 3: into the reason why favorites have excelled is basically you

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Speaker 3: had no comeback to some degree, are very few comebacks

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Speaker 3: in that sense. All right, let's get to Sunday Night football.

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Speaker 3: So Green Bay wins the game thirty five to twenty five,

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Speaker 3: covers the two and a half on close total goes

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Speaker 3: over forty six. I think it's probably worth just starting

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of the game. Obviously a lot of

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Speaker 3: hype around Rogers, but Green Bay's offense in the first

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Speaker 3: half came down to just third downs. On the other

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Speaker 3: side of the ball, they went over four two miss

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Speaker 3: field goals, three punts, but Jordan Love ridiculous kind of

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Speaker 3: all night played very very well first half thirteen to eighteen,

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Speaker 3: one forty six in a touchdown pass. But Pittsburgh leads

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Speaker 3: at the half. They get points on four or five drives.

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Speaker 3: Their rush defense looked incredible, really holding Jacobs and I

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Speaker 3: believe Wilson got a few carries as well, but seven

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Speaker 3: of nineteen basically doing nothing. And this was one of

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Speaker 3: my favorite stats from the game is the fact in

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Speaker 3: the first half seventeen players got to catch in this

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Speaker 3: game and both quarterbacks were literally throwing it to everybody.

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Speaker 3: But like, what did you make out of what we

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Speaker 3: saw in the first half and kind of the change

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Speaker 3: at halftime because to me, Jordan Love very consistent, but

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh from drive to drive, I feel like we get

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Speaker 3: something very different with Rogers in the run game and

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Speaker 3: kind of the way they play.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean green Bay. The first half looked a

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Speaker 2: lot like the Packers team we've kind of been complaining

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Speaker 2: about for a few weeks, where it was an all

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Speaker 2: or nothing and it was mostly nothing. In the first half.

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Speaker 2: They were getting some three and outs, they were looking

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Speaker 2: for the big play and not finding it. Pittsburgh's moving

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Speaker 2: the ball, But as a Pittsburgh better in this game,

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Speaker 2: which obviously did not go well for me, at halftime,

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Speaker 2: probably you're supposed to be feeling well, I wasn't feeling

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Speaker 2: great because it seemed like Pittsburgh is getting these opportunities

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Speaker 2: somewhat they're kicking long field goals, so credit for making

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Speaker 2: you know, Boswle hitting the long ones, but you don't

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Speaker 2: want to be settling for field goals in a game

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Speaker 2: against the Packers. You know you're gonna need some points.

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Speaker 2: And I just seem like Pittsburgh tomlin All is a

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Speaker 2: little bit conservative, you know. I guess that's probably understanding it.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if he's like had an aggressive decision

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Speaker 2: all year. If you look get some of the analytics

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Speaker 2: charts out there on like fourth down in the spots

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Speaker 2: where there's a little bit of question about it. So

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Speaker 2: it felt like Pittsburgh wasn't necessarily the better team in

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Speaker 2: the first half. They were at least even though, and

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Speaker 2: they had better chances and so they were ahead. I

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Speaker 2: felt like they need to be more ahead because I

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Speaker 2: don't know if you knew this, Evan, but I think

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Speaker 2: Toyota Thumb started at halftime tonight like I think it's

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Speaker 2: Tayota thumb. Then now Jordan Love finishes with what three

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Speaker 2: hundred and sixty yards, three touchdowns, zero point five to

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Speaker 2: nine EPA per play, which is like a monster number

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Speaker 2: ninety ninety fifth percentile until the last five minutes screen

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Speaker 2: Bay about double the yards, double the first downs, fifty

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Speaker 2: to thirty five percent success rate. Second half, it just

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Speaker 2: was not a game at all. Second half was the

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Speaker 2: entire rest of the day of football where the Packers

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Speaker 2: were just steamrolling. And I believe in that final possession,

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Speaker 2: I think they had scored all five of their possessions

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Speaker 2: in the second half when it still mattered. Love was

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Speaker 2: playing well enough that I already looked it up at

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Speaker 2: our sponsor DraftKings thirty to one MVP. I'm just saying

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Speaker 2: he's got thirteen touchdowns, two picks. We got this big

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Speaker 2: primetime spot. They go now Carolina for nothing, then Monday

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Speaker 2: Night against the Eagles in Lambeau. So that's gonna be

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Speaker 2: the next really big game two weeks from now, and

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Speaker 2: at thirty to one, it's ninth in odds. We'll get

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Speaker 2: there briefly today, but that's behind a running back. Now,

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Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor and his quarterback Daniel Jones. It's behind Jared Goff.

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Speaker 2: Jordan Love is like an MVP in waiting, and look

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Speaker 2: the part for half tonight, and their schedule opens up

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Speaker 2: a little bit moving forward, He's gonna have some big

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Speaker 2: primetime games. I don't know that he wins, but I

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Speaker 2: don't think we have a standout here yet for MVP.

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Speaker 2: It could be him thirty to one. It feels a

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Speaker 2: little long.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, twenty straight completions tonight. I feel like he's got

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Speaker 3: some of the new narrative. And you say he only

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Speaker 3: played well in the second half. I think overall, we're

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Speaker 3: just going to kind of forget about what this game

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Speaker 3: looked like and look at the final numbers. So in

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Speaker 3: primetime looking good. A night about Rogers ends up kind

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Speaker 3: of about Love and the fact that the record that

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Speaker 3: they have, what they did to Detroit when you look back,

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Speaker 3: like everything seems ahead of Green Bay and listen, never

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Speaker 3: a bad bet to take a quarterback the week before

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Speaker 3: facing the Panthers. So things could go one way, things

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Speaker 3: could go to the other. But you know, he might

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Speaker 3: throw four touchdowns next week and that number might look

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Speaker 3: a lot shorter. So I kind of like it. And

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Speaker 3: then again you mentioned it. Another huge game on deck

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Speaker 3: and then the Giants, Like the Giants can be beat

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Speaker 3: a number of different ways. Even if you start on

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Speaker 3: the ground, you could still throw a few passing touchdowns

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Speaker 3: against them.

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Speaker 2: So one thing I did the Packers still have both

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Speaker 2: I believe, both Bears and Vikings games down the stretch,

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Speaker 2: which was supposed to be daunting earlier in the season

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Speaker 2: because the division is tough, but those are looking a

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Speaker 2: little bit easier. It opens up a little bit Green Bay.

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Speaker 2: For all that we've complained a little bit one loss,

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Speaker 2: they only have one loss on the season, so you're

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Speaker 2: getting like a look, if they finish like fourteen to

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Speaker 2: two and one or something, that's the one seed. And

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Speaker 2: the only award you'd give this team is the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: They spread it to all the receivers. We talked about

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Speaker 2: that already. Jacobs is good, but not going to win

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Speaker 2: any sorts of award. It's Jordan Love. I guess Matt

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Speaker 2: Lafleur maybe would probably be in the mix for some

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Speaker 2: credit as well, but it's one of those two. If

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Speaker 2: you're gonna do some sort of award, I have to

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Speaker 2: give an award, by the way, for a national tight

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Speaker 2: end of the night. Happy National tight Ends Day. Tucker

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Speaker 2: Kraft comes through for US our top pick of the

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Speaker 2: day plus one sixty five on the touchdown. I know

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Speaker 2: a bunch of people were on that one two touchdowns

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Speaker 2: hits for US fourteen to one as well another Monster

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Speaker 2: game seven catches one forty three and two scores. He

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Speaker 2: was doing the thing. They have a lot of tight

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Speaker 2: end talk that he was the best one, and quite frankly,

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Speaker 2: I think he's like a top five and five might

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Speaker 2: be too many tight end and going forward, So I

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Speaker 2: think he's Green Bays go to receiver. We talk about

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Speaker 2: all the other guys. Christian Watson was back today. I

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Speaker 2: thought he played pretty well, opened up down the field,

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Speaker 2: did some nice blocks for them. But I think Kraft

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Speaker 2: is really the go to guy now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I believe he had the most receiving yards of

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Speaker 3: any player today, which would have been a fun ticket

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Speaker 3: to hold, something that would have been on National tight

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Speaker 3: Ends Day. The ones that I looked up just because

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Speaker 3: I was curious. Steelers have now lost five straight home

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Speaker 3: games after trailing entering the fourth quarter in those games,

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Speaker 3: their longest streak since two thousand and nine to twenty thirteen.

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Speaker 3: I was curious after looking at the scoreboard seeing them

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Speaker 3: trailing and listening to Renegade, and I said to myself,

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Speaker 3: I wonder, so that is your stat. Okay, let's keep

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Speaker 3: rolling here. I honestly so you and I kind of

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Speaker 3: go into the rundown just so everyone kind of sees

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Speaker 3: how the meal gets made here and we go back

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Speaker 3: and forth trying to figure out which games end up

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Speaker 3: in which slots. And when this ended up at the

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Speaker 3: top Underson Night Football, I said to myself, I don't

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Speaker 3: really have anything to beat it. So it's Jets Bengals.

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Speaker 3: Jets win the game thirty nine thirty eight. They cover

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Speaker 3: his five and a half point dogs total gooes over

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Speaker 3: forty three and a half and when Green, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I'm sorry. When the Bengals had the lead in this

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Speaker 3: game and it was, you know, fourteen points or whatever

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Speaker 3: it was, this game was listed basically in the let's

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Speaker 3: just say the score and get out of here. And

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Speaker 3: now with the comeback, it is probably one of the

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Speaker 3: games of the day. Nine hundred total yards, seven and

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Speaker 3: a half yards per rush between the two teams, just

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Speaker 3: one sack and no turnovers, justin fields versus Joe Flacco,

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Speaker 3: but the Jets get their first win. Jets get five

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Speaker 3: hundred yards or just a second time in twenty five years.

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Speaker 3: They run seventy plays on offense seven point two yards

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Speaker 3: per play, no turnovers, no sacks, and honestly, one of

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Speaker 3: the probably most important things for them in this game,

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Speaker 3: they convert on nine third and four downs, which is

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Speaker 3: what really keeps this game alive in my opinion, the

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Speaker 3: stat I'll give you and then I'll hand it off

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Speaker 3: to you Jets quarterbacks to lead the team to five

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Speaker 3: hundred plus yards, no sacks, and no turnovers, justin fields.

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Speaker 3: That's it. And the only other the only other quarterback

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Speaker 3: who's ever done it without a sack would be Joe

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Speaker 3: Namath for the Jets in nineteen sixty six because sacks

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Speaker 3: weren't available, and I have no idea if he was

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Speaker 3: sacked or not, but that literally is where this game

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Speaker 3: was listed. I said, I just think this has way

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Speaker 3: more to do with Cincinnati's defense, which when you start

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Speaker 3: going through each of the games, the numbers are ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: So what do you make of this matchup and what

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Speaker 3: we saw? I guess what you can take forward from

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Speaker 3: both these teams.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bengals entered the day thirty second in Dvoa. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: that's dead last. And then they gave up five hundred

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Speaker 2: yards of offense to the Jets, who remember didn't have

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Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson their only good receiver and tried to bench

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Speaker 2: their quarterback this week, but then good the backup was hurt,

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Speaker 2: so they had to play justin the fields again. That's

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Speaker 2: what just happened. Since he's cruising, it's seventeen to three,

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Speaker 2: twenty four to thirteen, ah, a half, thirty one, sixteen

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Speaker 2: into the fourth quarter. Like that was when I made

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Speaker 2: the rundown. I was like, all right, well this game,

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Speaker 2: you know, plenty of points. That's nice, but we don't

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Speaker 2: have anything to say here. It's a winless team and

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Speaker 2: a two win team or a three win team, I think.

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Speaker 2: But then fourth quarter Jets go six for sixty six

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Speaker 2: in a touchdown, five for sixteen a touchdown, nine for

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Speaker 2: fifty eight in a touchdown. What in the world are

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Speaker 2: you doing the Bengals, This is gift wrapped in your lap.

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Speaker 2: We just did Steelers. The Steelers are four and three,

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Speaker 2: they have four wins. The Bengals had their fourth win

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Speaker 2: gift wrap for them. They could have been tied with

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Speaker 2: four wins at the top of the division. Here you

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Speaker 2: have Steelers losing. The Ravens have lost five games already,

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Speaker 2: and it just is right there for them a home

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Speaker 2: game up two scores on the winless Jets. By the way,

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Speaker 2: we know the seventy two Dolphins thing gets run to

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Speaker 2: the ground. Did the twenty seventeen Browns get a pop

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Speaker 2: champagne today?

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Speaker 3: Like?

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Speaker 2: Did the two thousand and eight Lions all gather together?

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Speaker 3: Like we did it?

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Speaker 2: We're the real losers now. There's no more winless teams left.

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Speaker 2: None of the Jets win. I don't know. They probably

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Speaker 2: don't do that.

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Speaker 3: Sorry no, I said probably not.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So late in the game, big play for me

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Speaker 2: as a better and hopefully if you were tailing. So

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Speaker 2: I love this game for tight ends. For all the

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Speaker 2: points in the game, the tight ends were doing Jet

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Speaker 2: crap for me until at the very end of the game.

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Speaker 2: So the Jets are down fourteen, they get the touchdown hopefully.

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Speaker 2: If you listen to the show on US at Action Network,

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Speaker 2: you know by now, why do the Jets go for two?

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Speaker 2: It's the right analytics move, you go for two. It

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Speaker 2: looked like they didn't get it, it gets overturned. Now

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Speaker 2: you get the two point conversion. Then they get the

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Speaker 2: extra point for the win. That's why they win by

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Speaker 2: one is because that aggressive decision. If they didn't get it,

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Speaker 2: you can still go for two the next time and

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Speaker 2: get back to even. This way, you went forward early,

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Speaker 2: you get the chance to win in regulation. So you know,

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Speaker 2: pretty clear analytics win. Aaron Glenn, congrats on the first win.

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Speaker 2: But so now they're down six, they're driving. Brice Hall

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Speaker 2: has two scores already on the ground and our man

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Speaker 2: bres Hall throws it to Mason Taylor, first career touchdown,

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Speaker 2: plus two to sixty anytime touchdown for US, plus two

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Speaker 2: sixty on the money line for the Jets. For US,

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Speaker 2: we had both sides there. So big breeze Hall fan

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Speaker 2: for today. The Jets finished today at sixty percent success rate.

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Speaker 2: That is an absurdly bad number for the Bengals to allow.

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Speaker 2: The Bengals are fifty eight percent like they did plenty

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Speaker 2: of offense in this game, they just couldn't find answers defensively,

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Speaker 2: and Trey Hendrickson left hurt again, so they're trying to

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Speaker 2: trade him. You can't trade an injured player. He's pretty

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Speaker 2: much their only good defensive player. So what was already

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Speaker 2: a terrible defense, it's even worse without him, by the way. Stelse,

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Speaker 2: Joe Flacco left hurt also with a shoulder strain spain,

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Speaker 2: so wered you know how about Jake Brownie has looked

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Speaker 2: Flacco at least has given them some options. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if he'll necessarily be ready to go next week.

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Speaker 2: I gotta say I looked very hard in the hot

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Speaker 2: read at just fade the Bengals. But it's the Bears

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Speaker 2: next week, favored on the road with like their top

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Speaker 2: seven hundred cornerbacks all in the injured report, also against

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Speaker 2: all these receivers. So it just I agree with what

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Speaker 2: you said at the top. This was about the Bengals.

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Speaker 2: This is absolutely a Bengals loss. They follow to three

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Speaker 2: and five, just an inexplicable, like loser franchise loss. This

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Speaker 2: should get a coach fired. A sort of loss. They're

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Speaker 2: absolutely gift wrapped. They now had that big win against Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: They fought so hard against Detroit and Green Bay. Now

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Speaker 2: you're just back to three and five Bengals Bears. We'll

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Speaker 2: get to Bears, and I bet both teams really disappointing today,

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Speaker 2: and it's kind of like a loser leaves town game.

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Speaker 2: Next week Cincinnati still has after that game, Pittsburgh, New

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Speaker 2: England not easy. Then Baltimore, Buffalo, Baltimore all in a row.

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Speaker 2: This was the one you're supposed to get, the easy win.

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Speaker 2: I think we're gonna get Burrow back in December. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna have the usual Bengals push. They're gonna be so

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Speaker 2: good and looks so great to be like, Oh man,

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Speaker 2: if only Burrow hadn't gotten hurt. No, if all you

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Speaker 2: beat the Jets, you're up by fourteen. This is the

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Speaker 2: reason they're gonna miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're completely right. I believe Flacco did come back

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Speaker 3: into the game, so I would assume at this point

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Speaker 3: he would be their starting quarterback next week, especially based

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Speaker 3: off how he's played really lately. It's that would be

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Speaker 3: my assumption when you talk about this game just in general, though,

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Speaker 3: it's you're right. It's Cincinnati's defense just absolutely unreal. The

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Speaker 3: stat I put out Cincinnati now two and three straight

356
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Speaker 3: up in GAH, scoring thirty five plus and started last year.

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Speaker 3: All other teams now eighty four and six, two and

358
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Speaker 3: three eighty four and six just ridiculous. But I think

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Speaker 3: the story is the AFC North based off of Pittsburgh losing,

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati losing, like the entire division feels like it is

361
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Speaker 3: completely and of course the division becomes even more complicated

362
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Speaker 3: with Baltimore being the only team that wins. So to me,

363
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Speaker 3: but I think the thing for Cincinnati to like hold

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Speaker 3: your head on. Yes, you're gonna look back at this

365
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Speaker 3: Jets game probably every single week throughout the season, remembering it,

366
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Speaker 3: but you are two to zero in division, so like

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Speaker 3: trying to figure out how you parlay that into a

368
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Speaker 3: better move for you to get to the division lead.

369
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Speaker 3: Because this this division ain't find in a wildcard, I'll

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Speaker 3: tell you that much. So it's whoever's going to find

371
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Speaker 3: their way on top, we'll get through. But it is

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Speaker 3: a mess week to week. So I don't know what

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Speaker 3: else to say about either of these teams, but I

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Speaker 3: will say that the Jets getting the win now with

375
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Speaker 3: the bye week coming up, boy, that would have been

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Speaker 3: some story with Cleveland, like New England, there's some tough

377
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Speaker 3: defenses coming up. They're lucky they got this one, and

378
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Speaker 3: a lot of things had to go wrong for Cincinnati

379
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Speaker 3: for them to get there for sure.

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Speaker 2: And look, the Jets had a couple of games early

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Speaker 2: in the season, like the opener against Pittsburgh where they

382
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Speaker 2: got unlucky. So I think it's I think it is

383
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Speaker 2: right for the Jets to not be winless anymore, whether

384
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Speaker 2: it was this one or another one, they deserve to

385
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 2: get off the schneid. Cinc Nanty did run the ball well.

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Speaker 2: Like a lot of folks out there took Chase Brown

387
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Speaker 2: in their fantasy leagues and just have him riding the

388
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Speaker 2: pine at this point, He's kinmill looking good. The last

389
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Speaker 2: couple of games, and the Jets had been a pretty

390
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Speaker 2: good run defense. They ran twenty three times one hundred

391
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Speaker 2: and eighty one yards, three scores, sixty eight percent success

392
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Speaker 2: rate running the ball, run.

393
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Speaker 1: The ball more.

394
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Speaker 2: You're hit by fourteen at home against the Jets, what

395
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Speaker 2: are you doing instead, Jamar Chase? Do you know how

396
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 2: many targets he had in this game? Nineteen wineteen targets

397
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Speaker 2: he caught twelve, which is not a good rate for

398
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Speaker 2: ninety one yards, which is not the number you want

399
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Speaker 2: for Jamar Chase. You want like five for one twenty.

400
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 2: You want the big plays down the field a few

401
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 2: more catches, sure, but nineteen out of thirty four passes

402
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:12,120
Speaker 2: is force feeding. He finishes the game at zero point

403
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 2: nine EPA. Now, let me be clear, not per play

404
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 2: on nineteen passes to Jamar Chase. He finished with under

405
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 2: one expected point added. That is a team that is

406
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 2: coached poorly, that doesn't understand this is not working for us.

407
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 2: Run the ball, do some other things. That's the Bengals,

408
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 2: and they're too cheap to fire the coach. They're too

409
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,959
Speaker 2: cheap to make a change. I'm just I'm fed up

410
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 2: with this team.

411
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Speaker 3: I've hated Zach Taylor for a long time. I believe

412
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Speaker 3: with Joe Flacco, Jamar Chase's target share is really close

413
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Speaker 3: to fifty percent. So if that doesn't tell you something,

414
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Speaker 3: then nothing. Well, all right, I guess the next best

415
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 3: game of the day forty nine Ers Texans. Texans win

416
00:20:56,000 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 3: the game twenty six point fifteen. They covers two and

417
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 3: a half point favorites, which we heard Scott Hansen mention

418
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 3: at least forty four times today that the unexpected Texans

419
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 3: were favored over the forty nine Ers. That that came

420
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,199
Speaker 3: out of his mouth at least ten times. I know

421
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 3: Stucky was mentioned. Maybe had a bet or two on that,

422
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 3: but he was very aware of the point spread. Total

423
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 3: went under forty one and a half, just a half point.

424
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Speaker 3: Very tight to me the storyline, and I put at

425
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,399
Speaker 3: the top here I say, finally San Francisco has fallen apart,

426
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Speaker 3: because I feel like at this point, like there should

427
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 3: be more losses on their record and there aren't, so

428
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Speaker 3: I am just it was nice to see what I

429
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 3: had been feeling for a while. But early San Francisco

430
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 3: possessions just put them in the hole un punt punt

431
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 3: to start the game, while Houston went to a sixteen

432
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Speaker 3: to nothing lead. After that, San Francisco I feel like

433
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 3: kind of found their way, which with this team, it's

434
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 3: third and Juwan, it's Christian McCaffrey in the past game,

435
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 3: or it's starting to find George Kittle as he's come

436
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,880
Speaker 3: back from injury, Like that's kind of all their offense

437
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 3: right now. But to me, that's kind of the whole

438
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 3: thing about this game. Like CJ. Stroud got back on

439
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,640
Speaker 3: the offensive side, the passing game looked good. I think

440
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 3: it was a little bit overstated some of those lines

441
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 3: with the fact that Nico Collins is out of the game,

442
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 3: Like San Francisco secondary was depleted and they have been

443
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 3: and they can get passed on, so to me. And

444
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: the one other thing before he passed too, that I

445
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 3: was really happy with CJ. Stroud. Under pressure was something

446
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 3: that was a difficulty for him and something had been

447
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 3: talked about entering this game seven of eight for a

448
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 3: touchdown today, So dealt with it. Fine, an under twenty

449
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:40,720
Speaker 3: yards downfield for Stroud went twenty nine of thirty three passing.

450
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 3: He was precision was unreal. But what do you take

451
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 3: out of this one?

452
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: Yeah? Stroud three to eighteen, two touchdowns, an extra point

453
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 2: added every two plays passing for him. Man that if

454
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 2: that doesn't say enough about the Niners defense, the way

455
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 2: that the Texans have looked for a season and a

456
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: half now, and you let CJ. Stroud play like an

457
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: MVP that the quarterback we want him to be. I

458
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 2: think that just speaks volumes for this defense. I was

459
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 2: on Texans alts in this game. I love that play.

460
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 2: That was the right play here. We hit Texans minus

461
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,160
Speaker 2: nine and a half plus three to twenty. Honestly, I'm

462
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: kind of mad we didn't get the Texans by twenty

463
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 2: twelve to one. That felt very much in the play

464
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 2: until right before halftime. I think it was thirteen to nothing,

465
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 2: and then the Niners get a long kickoff return and

466
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,360
Speaker 2: I'm like, all right, well, I guess we're gonna give

467
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,399
Speaker 2: the three back and then they get a touchdown instead,

468
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: and that kind of took that off the board. But

469
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 2: Houston dominated. They had twenty four minutes of possession at halftime.

470
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: There's thirty minutes in the first half, so they had

471
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 2: the ball eighty percent of the time, Like that is insane.

472
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,639
Speaker 2: They finished with more than double the yardage, about double

473
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: the first downs. They went one in five in the

474
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:48,959
Speaker 2: red zoner else I think we maybe do hit that

475
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 2: twenty point when Houston had field goal drives of sixteen

476
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 2: plays nine to eleven and ten. So they are grinding out,

477
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 2: moving the ball for a team that goes out like

478
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: it's going on a style like this is really bad

479
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 2: for the Niners defense. We've talked about how bad has looked. Anyways,

480
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 2: you mentioned it, Nico Collin. This eOne out there, so

481
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 2: like you're one really good weapon offensively, and then San

482
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: Frank got more injuries.

483
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 3: Today.

484
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 2: De Winter is at linebacker, the second linebacker after Fred Warner.

485
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 2: Now he's injured. Two defensive starting linemen get injured after

486
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,959
Speaker 2: Bosa is already out, and gross Mata. So it's just

487
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 2: it is tragic right now. I updated with the injuries,

488
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 2: assuming that those guys miss a little time. This is

489
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 2: now below the Cowboys for me, this is my dead

490
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 2: last in the league defense. We just dumped on the Bengals.

491
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 2: We've dumped on the Cowboys all season. This is below now.

492
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: That's how bad it is. Niners are five and three.

493
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 2: I think they got lucky today in that this week

494
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 2: the Falcons loss, the Bears loss, the Vikings loss like

495
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 2: it's holding on for dear life to a wildcard spot

496
00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: now in their case. And we know about the soft schedule,

497
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 2: but man, I don't know if even the schedule canceive

498
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 2: them at this point. They go at Giants next week,

499
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 2: and you know you don't want to been in the

500
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 2: Giants right now necessarily, but I'm not sure that's a

501
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 2: gimme for them. That's lined about a field goal right now. Then, Rams, Cardinals, Carolina, Cleveland.

502
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 2: They don't get up bye week until December still, so

503
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 2: no rest for the weary. They're not gonna get healthy

504
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 2: anytime soon. I recommended them plus three twenty five to

505
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 2: miss the playoffs before today. I don't know that that

506
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 2: line's gonna shift a ton, because a lot of the

507
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 2: other now NFC teams lost anyway. But this defense is

508
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: just not going to happen for them this season, and

509
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,159
Speaker 2: I don't know if the soft schedule is gonna be

510
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 2: able to save them. I guess maybe getting Purty back

511
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: and getting the offense healthy at some point is going

512
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: to help. But how long we've been waiting for that.

513
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 2: It feels like all of October that's been the case.

514
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: So very worrisome for San fran Yeah.

515
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 3: And you have the Injury Bowl next week, forty nine

516
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 3: Ers and the Giants, but two teams who seem to

517
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 3: be losing people left and right, so I think it's

518
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 3: who's going to be healthy could have an advantage in

519
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: that one. So we will see. The one thing I

520
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 3: will quitt in my article this week, which I will

521
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 3: look a little bit more into, because I think a

522
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 3: few defenses we're out there a lot, but San Francisco's

523
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 3: defense on the field for seventy five plays in this game,

524
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: which is absolutely ridiculous and usually has an impact the

525
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: next week. So I'll have something on that but Texans

526
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 3: go ten of seventeen on third and fourth down, which

527
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 3: to me basically win the game. The trend that I

528
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,919
Speaker 3: will be looking going forward for San Francisco since Christmas

529
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 3: is twenty twenty three. Niners now one and fourteen against

530
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 3: the spread after an outright win, the worst mark of

531
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 3: any team in the NFL. Seems crazy, But also seven

532
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 3: and twenty four against the second half spread last thirty

533
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 3: one game since that date, So San Francisco's second half

534
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 3: has some issues, and after wins like they seem to

535
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,359
Speaker 3: just come back down to earth. So we're going to

536
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 3: see if there's some consistency there. You were right about

537
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 3: San Francisco on the record. The only other thing I

538
00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 3: noticed with them which someone who has a ticket on

539
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 3: them to miss the playoffs. They're three and zero versus

540
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 3: Division and five and one versus the Conference, so those

541
00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 3: things become very very important as we go late and

542
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 3: then Houston. To me, that's why I thought this matchup

543
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 3: was worthy of the top because both teams very much

544
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:24,160
Speaker 3: still fighting for a lot of things. So in terms

545
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 3: of good teams with records and fighting for things, this

546
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 3: was high on the list today. But with Indy the

547
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: way they are. I mean they're just battling. I feel

548
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 3: like Jacksonville week to week to make sure they're ahead

549
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: of them in the division and kind of go from there.

550
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 2: But anything else with this one, yeah, I mean AFC

551
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 2: is certainly where you want to be chasing for a

552
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 2: wildcard spot. It looks like one of New England or Buffalo.

553
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 2: One team in the AFC West, maybe two, maybe that's it,

554
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 2: but like you said, probably no one in the AFC North,

555
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: so it's probably you put Buffalo in New England and

556
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: that's one wildcard spot. So you got Denver, the Chargers, Jacksonville,

557
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 2: and Houston probably are the four teams fighting for two spots. Houston,

558
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 2: we keep winding the leave for dead. But they gotta

559
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 2: win here. They've got some winnable games coming up. I'm

560
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 2: not gonna take away from this game like, oh, they've

561
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 2: they've really found their offense. No, they've found the San

562
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 2: fran defense. But you know, you gotta find some wins too,

563
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 2: So I don't think that they solved anything today. That'll

564
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 2: be a little preview that will come back to a

565
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 2: little bit later. But they got to win. You gotta

566
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 2: sometimes you have to win while you're trying to solve things.

567
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 2: They bought themselves some time. They got the win that

568
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 2: teams like the Bengals and others did not get today.

569
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 2: So right now that's enough.

570
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, third straight home game. Two they go home this

571
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: week than home Denver, than home Jacksonville. So three straight

572
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 3: home games, I mean, good start for them all. Right,

573
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 3: before we move on, do not forget to sign up

574
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: for Action Pro for real time pick awards from experts

575
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 3: like Brandon Anderson, Chris Raybond, Stucky, our entire Action Network team.

576
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: Plus you can access our pro projections Paraba, Sean Kerner

577
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 3: and our predictive analytic team. Just go to Action hour

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579
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580
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581
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582
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583
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: off a year of Action Pro. Okay, it is our

584
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: shorter recap sections. We've got three games here. We will

585
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: start with the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos. Denver

586
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 3: wins this game forty four to twenty four, which feels

587
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 3: like the score in every Dallas game. Every week they

588
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: cover minus three and a half at home, over goes

589
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 3: over fifty one and a half. It's just the Cowboys defense.

590
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 3: I feel like it's a similar story when you talk

591
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 3: about Cincinnati and I think, okay, so I kind of

592
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: want to pause for a second because I feel like

593
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 3: this is just a question for you and like a

594
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 3: handicapping question week to week. I feel like defenses right

595
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 3: now are as worse as they've ever been in the NFL,

596
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 3: and I feel like it's part of the reason why

597
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 3: some of these overs are just feeling like easy money,

598
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 3: because at any point in the game, injuries and bad

599
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 3: defense is just allowing easy touchdowns and easy feel position like,

600
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 3: I have to look into the data a little bit more,

601
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 3: but I feel like the bad defense is leaving leading

602
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 3: to more just unnecessary points in some of these games.

603
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: But to me, this is one of those games, like

604
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 3: I think bon Nicks played well, but to me, Dallas

605
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 3: put up twenty four points and still didn't look fantastic,

606
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 3: Like you look at how they put up those points.

607
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 3: They just found themselves to twenty four. While it's Dallas's

608
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 3: defense who allows forty four points is really the story?

609
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 3: I mean, Dallas five straight overs now after this game,

610
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 3: quarterbacks facing Dallas twenty touchdowns and four picks this year

611
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 3: eight point two yards per attempt and a sixty nine

612
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 3: percent completion percentage. I mean in this game, just alone,

613
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 3: a dot was eleven. He was a plus nine completion

614
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 3: percentage over expected, and he added zero point five to

615
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: epa per play like he was ridiculous. On late downs,

616
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 3: Denver success rate was sixty four percent. I mean, they

617
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 3: did everything they wanted to do, and when I say

618
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: late downs, they barely got there. So to me, it's

619
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 3: the same story all over the place. But what do

620
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 3: you take from or do you believe in my theory?

621
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 3: I guess would be the question.

622
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, I do feel like we've talked a lot

623
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: about like who are the great teams this season? Why

624
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 2: does it not feel like anyone is stepping forward as

625
00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: a great team. So you see people talking about like, well,

626
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 2: maybe it's Denver. You know, Denver is a buzz saw

627
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: that everyone we've been waiting for this breakout spot. I

628
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: don't think that there are great teams right now, necessarily,

629
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: I think there are bad teams. And I think there

630
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 2: are bad units, and I'm not sure that I feel

631
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: super confident in the top side of the equation. I

632
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 2: find myself batting against the bad side of the equation

633
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 2: and grabbing my survivor teams. Not because I love this team,

634
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 2: but because I hate that team. So I'm happy to

635
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: play against them right now. And like that's where I'm

636
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: looking for props and overs also and Cowboys here. I

637
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: did not like the Denver defense. We thanks to Joe

638
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: Milton for getting us over the line. Did not expect

639
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 2: that one, did not deserve it, but we got the

640
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,400
Speaker 2: team total despite Dallas never being in the game. Really,

641
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: their defense just had no shot here Denver seven and

642
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 2: a half yards of play, Like that's you can't do that.

643
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: And bow Knicks, I thought probably had his best game

644
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 2: of the season, over zero point five EPA per play,

645
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: almost plus ten completion over expected. I'm kind of just

646
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: gonna run back my exact thoughts I just gave on CJ.

647
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 2: Stroud in that game, Like if you make CJ. Stroud

648
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: in this offense, look that good. If you make bow

649
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: Knicks in this offense look that good, You're terrible on defense.

650
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: That's it. Like we have the whole rest of the season.

651
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: Bow Knicks and CJ. Stroud are not that good. We

652
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: don't need to pretend like it all magically fixed in

653
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 2: one game. This is about Dallas defense, not about Denver's offense.

654
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: Am I mad that Dak Prescott threw a pick right

655
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 2: before halftime when Brandon Aubrey was set up for a

656
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 2: seventy yard field goal. We all wanted it. Everyone wanted

657
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 2: the field goal. It wasn't in a good pass either,

658
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 2: Like I think if they complete the pass, I think

659
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 2: the clock might run out, and I'm not sure to

660
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: get the field goal off anyway. You don't need the yardage.

661
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 2: You're bob where he's gonna hit it. Anyways, from seventy

662
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: we wanted the record. Dak I thought was kind of

663
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 2: terrible today. He's been really good this season. They had

664
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 2: two bad interceptions, just really off game. I honestly wonder

665
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: so very first drive of the game, Dallas kind of

666
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 2: goes right down the field and Patrick Sutan gets hurt

667
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: and so that's maybe the story of this game is

668
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 2: some of the Twitter doctors think this could be a

669
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 2: more serious injury that that maybe could cost him some

670
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 2: time even much of the regular season. I kind of

671
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: wonder if so Certain mostly is out, he comes back in,

672
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 2: he gets hurt again later on with the shoulder problem.

673
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 2: I sort of feel like that maybe throw off Dallas's

674
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: game plan, Like you are playing so much around what

675
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 2: certain is supposed to do that then he's suddenly off

676
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 2: the field in Denverest do something different, and now you're

677
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: not maybe ready for that right now. So I wonder

678
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 2: if that was maybe part of it. But it didn't

679
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 2: seem like Dallas had a great plan today and a

680
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: lot of the matchup stuff You're liked what Dak was

681
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 2: supposed to do against all the man coverage, what Knicks

682
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 2: was not gonna be able to do against Dallas coverage,

683
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,239
Speaker 2: and it all went sideways, it all went the other

684
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 2: direction here. So yeah, I think to your point, we

685
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 2: keep betting against whoever is playing the Cowboys. I could

686
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 2: put all their overs into your put them into your

687
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,720
Speaker 2: fantasy lineup, bet the overs, and I think with Dallas,

688
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: like I still like this offense. I still want to

689
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 2: bet on Dallas's offense. We're gonna watch him again. They're

690
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,879
Speaker 2: on Monday Night next week against the Cardinals. We're gonna

691
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 2: want to see what Dak and these receivers do. But

692
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: I think similar to today and not a victory lap

693
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: because I got lucky, but it's team totals. I don't

694
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 2: know if you want to take in Cowboys sides and

695
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 2: money lines because you've got to play the defense too.

696
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 2: You want just the offense on this team.

697
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, that Arizona spot feels kind of tasty. It's before

698
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 3: the buy. It's off this loss. It's off playing pretty

699
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 3: poorly like there feels like a you know, you don't

700
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 3: like to buy into many get right spots, but it

701
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,239
Speaker 3: does kind of feel like that. The one thing that

702
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 3: does continue with this game, bo Nicks continues to be

703
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 3: ridiculous as chalk. Just like when they're supposed to do well,

704
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 3: they continue to just perform very well as a favorite.

705
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 3: He is thirteen and one straight up, including now thirteen

706
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 3: and oh as a two point favorite higher. So basically

707
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 3: anytime they're chalk, it looks great. And with those starts

708
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 3: eleven and three second have ats as a favorite, so

709
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 3: just really consistent, which makes it really difficult on other teams.

710
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 3: I think it's worth talking at least one second about

711
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 3: both of the teams and the records and stuff like that.

712
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 3: So Dallas three four and one straight up. Now to me,

713
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: the losses to Chicago and Carolina, maybe not so much Carolina,

714
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 3: but we'll see, could be big, Like those are the

715
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,439
Speaker 3: teams you end up trying to probably fight in those

716
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: wild card situations. But they are two and one in

717
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 3: the division, so at least that's good. And then from Denver,

718
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: I mean, I think it's worth reminding people they are

719
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 3: six and two. They're leading the AFC West no matter

720
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 3: what happens to the Chiefs on Monday Night football. But

721
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 3: the Broncos are oh and one in division and own

722
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 3: one division something that you know we're going to see

723
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 3: them play a lot more of the AFC West teams,

724
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:37,480
Speaker 3: which you know, Raiders are not not so easy. Anything else.

725
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: Now, let's keep moving, all.

726
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 3: Right, Giants and Eagles. Eagles win the game thirty eight

727
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 3: to twenty. They cover minus seven and a half at

728
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 3: home over forty three and a half hits. So I

729
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,479
Speaker 3: think the important thing for me when I was trying

730
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 3: to dissect this game is the Giants are down just

731
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 3: fourteen to seven. They've actually outscored the Eagles forty one

732
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 3: thirty one. When the Giants drive right when Camp Scatibo

733
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: gets hurt, so like, I feel like the game is

734
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 3: more back and forth. Yes, they're trailing, but I feel

735
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 3: like it's going to be a little bit of a

736
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 3: back and forth game until that happens. He gets hurt,

737
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 3: They punt two plays later, and then they're outscored twenty

738
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 3: four to six before that last touchdown. So I have

739
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 3: a difficulty trying to figure out what to take from

740
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 3: it versus not. I mean, Jalen Hurts throws four touchdowns,

741
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,800
Speaker 3: Philly's most balanced game in a while, I guess you

742
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 3: could say because they put two seventy six on the

743
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 3: ground and the fact that three for three in the

744
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 3: red zone, no turnovers, like they just felt right. But

745
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 3: to me, the game changes right there. What do you

746
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 3: feel like?

747
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it just was such a gruesome injury. Also,

748
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,240
Speaker 2: like to see a guy that had kind of become

749
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 2: the heart and soul of the team with just his

750
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:57,720
Speaker 2: attacking downhill running style like leaning in right, no running

751
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: out of bounds, like taking the extra hit every time.

752
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,840
Speaker 2: I feel like that sort of became what their identity was.

753
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: So then to see that, you know, kind of the

754
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: bubble burst on that is really rough on the team.

755
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 2: It did seem like that was a big part. And

756
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 2: then I hate to come there again, but the Toush

757
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 2: push controversy, like we just can't get over it with

758
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 2: this team, apparently you can fall start on tush bushes

759
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 2: and now you get to fumble as well, like we

760
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 2: like everyone watching that play thinks that the play is

761
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 2: live and it's a fumble and maybe going back the

762
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,439
Speaker 2: other way and instead the rest of blown a data

763
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 2: And so that's just that. It's just every week with

764
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 2: the Toushbush controversy and the Eagles. And I felt like

765
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 2: that seemed like I can't remember exactly, but I believe

766
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 2: that was a similarish time to the Scatterbou injury as well.

767
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 2: So I think between those two things just a rough spot.

768
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 2: Credit words due scatabo or not. This is finally the

769
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 2: Eagles result we've been asking for all year. This is

770
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: the team that this is. You finally blew an opponent

771
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 2: out that you're supposed to fifty nine to thirty nine

772
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: percent success rate. When you see all those charts this week,

773
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: did we really get beat that bad? It's gonna just

774
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 2: say yes to the Giants. They got beat that bad.

775
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,239
Speaker 2: It was really bad. They got almost doubled up in

776
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: yardage Eagles plus one eighty one one yards, ten more

777
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 2: first downs, seven and a half yards of play. They

778
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 2: were not good on third down in this game. Otherwise,

779
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 2: maybe gets a little worse, but obviously look good. Saquon

780
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: leaves hurt late. I don't think that's probably too big

781
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 2: of a deal. They're up big, They've got the bye

782
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 2: week next week. I think they're probably just being cautious

783
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 2: for the Eagles, maybe the perfect timing for a bye

784
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 2: week with Saquana injured and obviously no AJ Brown in

785
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 2: this game. By the way, the Eagles have been pretty

786
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: bad without aj Brown offensively in the past, so playing

787
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 2: this well without him is not nothing for them. They're

788
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 2: six and two and now they get the buye a week.

789
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 2: They they then after the buye a week it's Packers Lions, Cowboys,

790
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 2: So we're gonna see if this like, are they really

791
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 2: humming now or did they just beat the Giants and

792
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 2: the Vikings, which, by the way, beating up on the

793
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 2: Vikings doesn't seem so great after Thursday night now either,

794
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 2: So is that something and are they finding answers? We

795
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 2: saw that last year. It took them a few weeks

796
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 2: and they found some answers. We're gonna find out. We'll

797
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 2: get that Monday night Packers game and kind of go

798
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: from there. But on the flip side, Giants two and six,

799
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 2: Now here's a stat for you. Two and six is

800
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: the Giants second best start since the twenty seventeen season,

801
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:31,359
Speaker 2: second best start. They here's their records two and six,

802
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 2: two and six, two and six, six and two. Way

803
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 2: to go two and six one seven, two and six

804
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 2: one seven, one seven. What is this franchise doing? That's

805
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 2: nine years and two and six ties for the second

806
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 2: best start. I thought it was different Evan with Jackson

807
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 2: Dard and Cam Scatabo. Maybe it was, and now it

808
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 2: ended what once Cam went out?

809
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,240
Speaker 3: Yeah? I thought today was at MetLife. I got really

810
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 3: angry when Scatabo got hurt and I was just like,

811
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 3: oh the turf and I was like, oh wait, man,

812
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 3: that's not It might have been a hip drop tac.

813
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 3: I don't know. Pretty bad injury either way in.

814
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 2: The old end days that the VAT at Philly was

815
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 2: even worse. So we can just pretty cooll blame it

816
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: on the VAT, even though I know that's not the

817
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 2: thing anymore. Let's just blame it on Philly.

818
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 3: I will say this, Giants have allowed twenty plus points

819
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 3: in ten straight road games now thirty eight, thirty three,

820
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 3: twenty six and forty in their last four. So with

821
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 3: that being said, at Chicago in two weeks would be

822
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 3: their next road game, so maybe a get right spot

823
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 3: there with Ben Jonson depending on what happens. Oh, Jackson

824
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 3: Dart as well even odds to an offensive Rookie of

825
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 3: the Year, so even without Scatabo now probably gonna get

826
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 3: a lot of work from Dart. All right, let's keep

827
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 3: rolling here. Chicago and Baltimore Ravens win the game thirty

828
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 3: to sixteen, cover minus two and a half at home

829
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,919
Speaker 3: over forty four and a half. It's probably worth talking

830
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 3: about a little bit what happened before the game, Before

831
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:53,919
Speaker 3: the game actual starts, so last Sunday night. This game

832
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 3: opens minus six and a half on Saturday AM, so

833
00:41:57,360 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 3: basically a day before the game. It goes up to

834
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 3: actually seven for Baltimore is a favorite, and then the

835
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 3: news comes out that Lamar the whole practice thing line

836
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 3: comes down to three and a half and actually closes

837
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,439
Speaker 3: minus two and a half for the Ravens. A lot

838
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 3: of action both ways. A lot of upset people, but

839
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 3: I believe the game the way the game went, I

840
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 3: think Baltimore got a little bit lucky because first two

841
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 3: drives for the Bears Calebs gets sacked and then back

842
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 3: to back incompletions, both on third down. Those first two

843
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,719
Speaker 3: drives lead to field goals. If any of those leads

844
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,399
Speaker 3: to touchdowns, I feel like, you know, hotly, coming from

845
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:37,439
Speaker 3: more behind than just six points kind of changes things

846
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 3: because then Chicago goes three and out, then they miss

847
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 3: a field goal, then they go three and out again,

848
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 3: like things end up leading Baltimore to being up by

849
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 3: double digits. But I kind of feel like the start

850
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 3: of this game could have a little bit different. But

851
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 3: what do you think?

852
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I don't think that this, like the

853
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 2: final score line and the way it felt all throughout,

854
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,879
Speaker 2: was a Ravens domination. But the stats don't really tell

855
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 2: that story. I think they tell the Ravens being slightly

856
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 2: better that the Bears. Sure finished with slightly more yardage

857
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 2: on the game, Ravens had a slight advantage and success rate.

858
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 2: I thought early down passes was especially in Baltimore's favor.

859
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 2: That Ravens did go three of six in the red zone.

860
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 2: So I think if they could just get in another

861
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 2: score or two there, then this maybe looks even worse

862
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 2: in Baltimore's favor. But end of the game, I mean,

863
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 2: even that alone, the Bears get down to the one,

864
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 2: and I think Dj Moore catches a long one don

865
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 2: thinking at a bounds, so they're like rushing up and

866
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 2: they get four shots at the one and don't get

867
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 2: into the end zone. Well, that alone would have made

868
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 2: it thirty to twenty three and probably a bit more

869
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,919
Speaker 2: representative of what the game felt like. I was paying

870
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 2: particular attention you talked about how the spread moved. The

871
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 2: total I think was fifty and a half early in

872
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 2: the week, and then Tyler Hanley gets announced and immediately

873
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 2: goes so already there was rumors he might be playing,

874
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,719
Speaker 2: so it's at forty seven and a half and then

875
00:43:56,719 --> 00:43:59,320
Speaker 2: he gets announced in Tyler Harnley Anders have been a

876
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 2: thing for forever, and so as soon as he's in,

877
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 2: it dropped down to like forty four and a half

878
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:07,720
Speaker 2: within minutes, well within minutes in that window, I grabbed

879
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 2: on the action app under forty seven and a half,

880
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 2: So somehow I locked into this one. I got the

881
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 2: hook at the end, the total hits forty six, so

882
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 2: thanks to the kileb Williams and the terrible ending there,

883
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 2: so that the total was kind of its own story there.

884
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 2: Depending on when you played, it does go over. So

885
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: Tyler Huntley under has dropped to eleven and four to

886
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 2: the under technically speaking, but only if you waited till

887
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 2: the very end, if you kind of read the tea

888
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 2: leaves where Lamar was was well, I don't know if

889
00:44:37,680 --> 00:44:40,359
Speaker 2: there were tea leaves. It's what's the opposite of tea leaves?

890
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 2: Whatever Baltimore is keeping us, But yeah, it didn't. I

891
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,479
Speaker 2: honestly don't have a ton of takeaway from the game.

892
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 2: I guess a question I will have that I don't

893
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 2: know we know the answer to yet. This is out

894
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 2: of the bye week. We know Baltimore's defense got a

895
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: little healthier. We know they move Cale Hamilton around. The

896
00:44:57,000 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 2: Bears offense has moved the ball pretty well. Like I

897
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: assume the Bears truly went under the team total in

898
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 2: this game. That's gotta be their first time on the

899
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 2: season that this is a team that was scoring points

900
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 2: week after week. So did the Ravens defense that had

901
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 2: been horrible all season. Did they find a few answers?

902
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 2: Was this about Caleb Williams? Was it about the Ravens.

903
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,320
Speaker 2: I'll tell you this, this is not my hot Reid.

904
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:25,439
Speaker 2: The Ravens play Thursday. I think Lamar Jackson's gonna play.

905
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 2: But I thought Lamar Jackson was gonna play this week.

906
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 2: I can't hot Reid because I gotta know if Lamar

907
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 2: is playing. But Thursday, short week against the Dolphins, I

908
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 2: know what the Dolphins did. You're gonna recap it for

909
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 2: ust in a second Thursday against the Dolphins, screams. Derrick

910
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 2: Henry runs for one hundred and fifty two scores, and

911
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 2: the Ravens just demolish the Dolphins and send McDaniel to

912
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 2: his funeral like that. That screams, get right game to

913
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 2: me against the defense that's been awful, which we've said

914
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 2: about like five teams now in this episode, I realize,

915
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 2: but they're they're all awful. So Baltimore now goes three

916
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 2: games on the road, but it's Dolphins, Vikings Browns. They're

917
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 2: two and five. That smells like five and five. But wait,

918
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 2: we still got Jets Bengals after that. That schedule is

919
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 2: opening up. I think that Baltimore. We just said, no

920
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 2: wildcard out of the division. Maybe it's no wildcard, maybe

921
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 2: it comes at the expense of the Steelers. But it

922
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 2: sure feels like the Ravens didn't impress me today, but

923
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: they did win, and this schedule coming up is going

924
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 2: to open up real nicely for them if they can

925
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 2: get some wins here. So Thursday, we'll see. Maybe it'll

926
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: be the all Man. The Ravens are back to three

927
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 2: and five here they come. I feel like I'm hearing footsteps.

928
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think this game kind of like San Francisco

929
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,239
Speaker 3: and Houston, like they're both good teams. We expect to

930
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 3: keep hearing about both these teams when it comes to playoffs.

931
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,439
Speaker 3: Assume Baltimore keeps winning a game or two to stay

932
00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 3: within mix. The one thing I want to say about

933
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 3: Chicago eleven penalties for Chicago in this game. They have

934
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 3: six plus penalties in all seven games. Something Ben Johnson's

935
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,919
Speaker 3: got to figure out. The other thing, one of three

936
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 3: in the red zone today, now below fifty percent on

937
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 3: the season. Just for what it's worth, Detroit's at seventy

938
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 3: two percent in the red zone this year and they

939
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,399
Speaker 3: were at sixty nine percent last year. Those are two things.

940
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 3: Chicago's got to figure out penalties, red zone. So that's

941
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 3: what I'll be looking for a little bit going forward.

942
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 3: All right, let's just get through the scores now on

943
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: the rest of these games. So Miami Atlanta. Miami wins

944
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 3: thirty four to ten. They cover the plus seven total,

945
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,240
Speaker 3: goes under forty four and a half. By the hook,

946
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:40,960
Speaker 3: the Dolphins were coming off a game with eleven penalties,

947
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 3: zero for two in the red zone, one for thirteen

948
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 3: on third down. They were just terrible. They fixed a

949
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,360
Speaker 3: lot of that today. No turnovers, only four penalties, just

950
00:47:49,400 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 3: to sack six to thirteen on third down two had

951
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 3: the four touchdowns. Today was a get right game against

952
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:57,920
Speaker 3: a team without their best wide receiver and what really

953
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,359
Speaker 3: is their backup quarterback. This was the biggest upset of

954
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 3: to his career. He was zero to five straight up

955
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 3: at above plus six. All right, New England beats the

956
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 3: Browns thirty two thirteen, cover minus seven total over forty

957
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 3: and a half. The story here is the MVP odds

958
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 3: right now, Pat Mahomes plus one fifty, Josh Allen plus

959
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 3: three to fifty, and Drake May plus four fifty. Drake

960
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 3: May right now has two thousand plus passing yards and

961
00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:29,320
Speaker 3: a seventy five point two percent completion percentage through eight games.

962
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 3: The only other quarterback to do that is Drew Brees

963
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 3: in twenty eighteen. That is it. That is the pace

964
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 3: right now of Drake May absolutely ridiculous. And the other

965
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,200
Speaker 3: fun stat Miles Garrett now tied for the NFL leading

966
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:47,360
Speaker 3: sacks with ten, having half in today's game Buffalo Carolina.

967
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 3: Buffalo wins forty to nine, cover minus seven on the

968
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 3: road total over forty seven and a half. Josh Allen

969
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 3: now nine and zero straight up six two and one

970
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:58,720
Speaker 3: ats off a full bye week. They're averaging about twenty

971
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 3: eight points per game in those starts. Really good there.

972
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,640
Speaker 3: The other thing about teams facing Buffalo don't turn it over.

973
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 3: Carolina did it three times today, Buffalo twenty three and

974
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:13,799
Speaker 3: Zho straight up three plus since twenty nineteen. And I'll

975
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 3: say this, James Cook almost six yards per carry this year,

976
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 3: best in the NFL. He's looking fantastic, all right. Colts

977
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 3: beat the Titans thirty eight to fourteen, cover the fourteen

978
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 3: and a half point spread total over forty eight. Colts

979
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,840
Speaker 3: are seven and one straight up their win total was

980
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,320
Speaker 3: seven and a half, so the Colts can go over

981
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:36,839
Speaker 3: their win total with they win next week against the Steelers.

982
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 3: They are covering the spread by ten point nine points

983
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 3: per game this year, most by a team since twenty nineteen.

984
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 3: And on the other side, Titans Jesus Christmas two and

985
00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,960
Speaker 3: thirteen ats versus the AFC South in the last fifteen

986
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 3: they are five twenty three and one ats in their

987
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 3: last twenty nine games. Also, Jonathan Taylor touchdown, he was

988
00:49:57,040 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 3: minus four twenty five today he ends up getting three.

989
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,800
Speaker 3: He is minus two point fifty to an offensive Player

990
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 3: of the Year. And then finally Bucks Saints Bucks win

991
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:09,640
Speaker 3: the game twenty three to three in a game I

992
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 3: feel like I watched for maybe fifteen seconds. It was

993
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 3: really really bad out there. They cover the minus three

994
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 3: and a half on the clothes, so it goes under

995
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:19,800
Speaker 3: forty eight. The Saints ran I don't even know this's possible.

996
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,960
Speaker 3: The Saints ran seventy one plays and we're zero for

997
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 3: one in the red zone after eight of sixteen on

998
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:29,640
Speaker 3: third down and two for four on fourth down. Just

999
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 3: absolutely stuck in the mud. To run seventy one plays

1000
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:35,359
Speaker 3: and get in the red zone once. After that, many

1001
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 3: third downs and fourth downs, just literally moving nowhere as

1002
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 3: an underdog of under ten points. Spencer Rattler nowher in

1003
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:45,320
Speaker 3: ten ats in his career. He was replaced by Tyler

1004
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 3: Shuck in this game. So we will see whatever New

1005
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 3: Orleans does going forward. All right, Monday Night, Monday Night,

1006
00:50:53,719 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 3: Monday Night Football, Washington Commander's Kansas City Chiefs. I'll just

1007
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:08,879
Speaker 3: let you take it from here. What are you feeling

1008
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 3: on this game? What are you seeing?

1009
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you're gonna start with the injuries. I think

1010
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: it looks like Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel play at

1011
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 2: receiver for Washington. No Jane Daniels, so we're gonna get

1012
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 2: Marcus Mariota again. That's the big story. The lesser story

1013
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 2: is the Chiefs offensive line. Still know Josh Simmons at

1014
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,280
Speaker 2: left tackle looks like Tray Smith, the star right guard

1015
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 2: will be possibly out as well. I believe the right tackle.

1016
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:33,919
Speaker 2: I don't know if Jawan Taylor being in or out

1017
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 2: is better or worse for them, but I think he's

1018
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 2: had some struggles. So yeah, look this line, I make

1019
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 2: it about minus ten. I believe it's at like eleven

1020
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 2: and a half right now, I'm not interested in a

1021
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,240
Speaker 2: side here. The Chiefs offense is rolling. They're second in DPOA.

1022
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 2: Now I think they should score, but the offensive line

1023
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 2: injuries are a bit of an issue. I think trends

1024
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,879
Speaker 2: would point you towards an under here, and maybe those

1025
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:02,959
Speaker 2: Chiefs offensive line injuries help a little bit. Mahomes home

1026
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: unders sixty three percent in his career, best of any

1027
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 2: current starter, and then primetime unders outside of Thursday is

1028
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:13,240
Speaker 2: still sixty one percent since twenty nineteen, fifty nine percent

1029
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 2: this season, So under forty eight if you want chief

1030
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,400
Speaker 2: second half unders have been very good. So if you

1031
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,320
Speaker 2: want to wait and just do a second half under,

1032
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:24,200
Speaker 2: as they can have just run out what presumably run

1033
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 2: out of lead there, maybe that's the way to go.

1034
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: So Chiefs under forty eight. And then I wanted to

1035
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 2: go Travis Kelcey because you know national touchdown, National tight

1036
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:36,839
Speaker 2: End's day. He's got minus odds. Man, I can't do it.

1037
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,800
Speaker 2: He had three and five touchdowns the last two seasons.

1038
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 2: It's just I can't play a minus odds at like

1039
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 2: old school Kelsey numbers. I think two. You may have

1040
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 2: to block a little extra with all those line injuries.

1041
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 2: So I'm instead go with our guy that finally came

1042
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:55,240
Speaker 2: back last week for Shee Rice two touchdowns last week,

1043
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:57,800
Speaker 2: even only they played about forty percent of the snaps.

1044
00:52:58,080 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 2: He's now scored in ten of the last nine eighteen

1045
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 2: games on the field. That's over half of them. I

1046
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 2: see a plus one forty out there at one book.

1047
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,879
Speaker 2: So I'll take a Rishia Rice score, and I'll be honest,

1048
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 2: I probably won't be watching a lot of this game.

1049
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 3: Why don't we do, Noah Gray and Zach Ertz, Let's

1050
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:19,400
Speaker 3: say Travis doesn't get his love. That's that's probably the

1051
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 3: fun way to go. So that might be my look.

1052
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,480
Speaker 3: And you're right about the under in these types of games.

1053
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 3: I had this in my article, but I'll reiterate. So

1054
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 3: both the commanders and chiefs are both on extended rest

1055
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 3: here on Monday Night Football. Since twenty eighteen, when both

1056
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:37,320
Speaker 3: teams arenninged rest the under one fourteen seventy one sixty

1057
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 3: one percent. It's been pretty good recently. All right, anything

1058
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 3: else here on My night football.

1059
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:43,600
Speaker 2: Let's do hot read.

1060
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 3: All right? If you want to tail some of these

1061
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 3: Monday Night Football bets, make sure to look for the

1062
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 3: quick slip link in the podcast and video description, or

1063
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 3: go to action over dot com slash bet now, b

1064
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: et n ow bet now. You can also find those

1065
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,680
Speaker 3: quick slip links live in the YouTube chat if you're

1066
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:00,879
Speaker 3: still hanging out with us. All right, Brandon, I think

1067
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 3: we've teased them long enough. What are your hot read

1068
00:54:04,160 --> 00:54:07,160
Speaker 3: plays for next week? Week nine? Can't believe it? Week nine?

1069
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 2: Hot wrap?

1070
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 3: Bothy ice right, ice cream?

1071
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 2: Hot Oh, I can't believe it's Week nine November football. Already,

1072
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 2: it's ugly out there. There are a lot of really

1073
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 2: high lines. Next week. There are a bunch of injuries

1074
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:29,720
Speaker 2: We've talked about, like three or four spots I'm already

1075
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,560
Speaker 2: looking at. So maybe they make it into my pick

1076
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 2: six for next week. But we're waiting on injuries, Like

1077
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:38,279
Speaker 2: how can you take Dallas when maybe Kyler comes back

1078
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 2: and that line moves up a little bit? Said that

1079
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,000
Speaker 2: three right now, there's a bunch of those sorts of games.

1080
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take an ugly under Broncos at Texans

1081
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:50,160
Speaker 2: under forty and a half. So I always go through

1082
00:54:50,200 --> 00:54:53,399
Speaker 2: Sunday morning, or really Saturday night and say, Okay, what

1083
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 2: hot reads am I looking for? What's the line I'm

1084
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 2: hoping to be able to grab Sunday night, and I

1085
00:54:57,840 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 2: had in my notes, So this game was thirty eight

1086
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 2: and a half this morning, and I wanted anything under

1087
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half or better. Instead, we watch

1088
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 2: both these offenses put up a big number. So this

1089
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 2: line is rising right now, thirty nine and a half.

1090
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 2: L out of books forty. There's one forty and a

1091
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,319
Speaker 2: half out there. That forty is important, so'll be sure

1092
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 2: to get that if you can. Typically, that would make

1093
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 2: me now play this because if the line is rising,

1094
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:26,719
Speaker 2: that's not a very good hot read. You probably can

1095
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:29,839
Speaker 2: wait a little bit in that scenario and maybe get

1096
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 2: the other side of it, get another pointer or two

1097
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 2: that's gonna be valuable there. I'm just gonna trust my gut.

1098
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 2: It's Broncos Texans. This is always an under for me.

1099
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 2: I think the line rising here, I think that's an

1100
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:45,880
Speaker 2: overreaction to Today. Houston scores twenty six. Congrats, it's the

1101
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. They have a corpse of a defense

1102
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 2: out there, and you only score twenty six. That's not

1103
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 2: that many. Denver scored forty four, obviously looked very good.

1104
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 2: Again by my metrics, these are the two worst defenses

1105
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:00,960
Speaker 2: in the league, not Houston and Denver. The teams they

1106
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 2: just put up the points on today, and they're very

1107
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:07,760
Speaker 2: banged up defenses. So I think we're overreacting to points today.

1108
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 2: Denver twenty three points a game before today, Houston had

1109
00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 2: a big game against Baltimore a few weeks ago. Outside

1110
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:17,360
Speaker 2: of that game, eighteen points a game for the Texans

1111
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: on the season. We don't need to explain about the

1112
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 2: defenses here, Like Texans D awesome, Broncos D is awesome.

1113
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:28,239
Speaker 2: Houston's line against Nick Bonito on all the pass rush

1114
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,319
Speaker 2: probably not gonna go that well for CJ. Stroud. This

1115
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:35,560
Speaker 2: is not San Francisco anymore. Denver check down city against

1116
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:38,560
Speaker 2: all that Houston for pressure coming at you. I just

1117
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:41,920
Speaker 2: don't see this going that well. I think to the

1118
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 2: certain injury could also be a little bit why this

1119
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:47,879
Speaker 2: line is rising, especially if Nico is back. They can't

1120
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:49,800
Speaker 2: get Niko the ball anyways. Like I'm not going to

1121
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:53,800
Speaker 2: really move too much based on that. Denver last season

1122
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 2: when they faced a top twelve defense offensively, they only

1123
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,399
Speaker 2: scored fifteen and a half points game. This is not

1124
00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: an offense that I trust, and I know I just

1125
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 2: faded Denver. This week today. I know it didn't go

1126
00:57:06,480 --> 00:57:09,400
Speaker 2: well because they dropped forty four, but I'm fading the

1127
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:13,240
Speaker 2: offense this time here, trusting the defense. On the season,

1128
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 2: Houston has now had already four of its seven games

1129
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:20,080
Speaker 2: below forty that hits are under here. Denver's had four

1130
00:57:20,120 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 2: games like that as well. They've combined for six games

1131
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 2: at thirty two or below in their games. So this

1132
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:29,040
Speaker 2: to me smells like Mindschaft season. We may have to

1133
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 2: come back for that. Houston five and two to the

1134
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 2: under best in the NFL, Denver five and three, two

1135
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 2: of the top five under teams on the season. Thank

1136
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:40,840
Speaker 2: you for the forty. I'll take the forty and a half.

1137
00:57:40,920 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 2: Give me the under on Houston Denver.

1138
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I see that line kind of going down

1139
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:46,960
Speaker 3: a little bit right now, like I even see some

1140
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 3: books kind of shading, so I expect it to kind

1141
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 3: of go down, especially with some of the news throughout

1142
00:57:52,240 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 3: the week. But Nico certen a lot to wait for

1143
00:57:55,440 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 3: there all. Right. Before we wrap up, let's hear from

1144
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 3: Patrick Everson from Vegas Insiders and how things looked in

1145
00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 3: Las Vegas.

1146
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:12,520
Speaker 1: Evan, thanks a lot for having me in on the

1147
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast again. It's kind of an interesting situation. Usually,

1148
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:21,960
Speaker 1: when you get a couple of surprising underdogs winning outright,

1149
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 1: that's usually a really good sign for the bookmakers and

1150
00:58:25,600 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 1: a really bad sign for the public betting masses. But

1151
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 1: every now and then, it just depends on who those

1152
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 1: underdogs are. And although the Miami Dolphins up ended the

1153
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons and the Jets had that fourth quarter comeback

1154
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 1: against the Cincinnati Bengals to win, those two outcomes certainly

1155
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:48,600
Speaker 1: helped the sports books, but there was still so much

1156
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 1: play being in straight bets or in parlays and moneyline

1157
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:55,880
Speaker 1: parlays that did not include the Falcons or the Bengals,

1158
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:57,920
Speaker 1: even though the Falcons and Bengals were two very popular

1159
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 1: teams and survivor contests, much that the public was able

1160
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: to get a good bit back, And one odds maker

1161
00:59:06,120 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 1: told me, he said, Hey, I probably just call it

1162
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:11,560
Speaker 1: a break even day because of how well the favorites

1163
00:59:11,600 --> 00:59:13,840
Speaker 1: did to the rest of the day. Good day for

1164
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 1: the favorites, great day for the overs as well. The

1165
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 1: over for the week so far, including the Thursday night

1166
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:23,160
Speaker 1: game which went over nine to one and two to

1167
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 1: the over. Heading to the Commander's Chiefs game, on Monday night.

1168
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 1: So that's that's a good result generally for the public

1169
00:59:30,360 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 1: as well, because the public loves to bet on the

1170
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:33,600
Speaker 1: overs that love it, bet on things to happen, and

1171
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 1: so forth. National tight Ends Day not the greatest National

1172
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 1: titands Day. Not a bad day. But I did have

1173
00:59:41,800 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 1: one odds maker tell me it was really interesting that

1174
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 1: in the anytime touchdown scores market, the top three players

1175
00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:53,680
Speaker 1: bet in that market with this odds maker were all

1176
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:57,479
Speaker 1: tight ends. George Kittle, Tyler Warren, Dallas Gotter. Tyler Warren

1177
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 1: did not get there, but George Kittle did once in Dallas.

1178
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 1: Goddar did twice and Craft for the Packers, and the

1179
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 1: Sunday night game you probably saw he had a couple.

1180
01:00:06,280 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 1: He just had a massive game and a couple of touchdowns.

1181
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:11,000
Speaker 1: So some tight ends did the job, and hopefully you

1182
01:00:11,040 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 1: were on the right tight ends if you were wagering

1183
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 1: on them in player props on this National tight Ends Day.

1184
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 1: But if I got it correctly, only eleven tight end

1185
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:24,919
Speaker 1: touchdowns this year. There was sixteen last year, so off

1186
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:29,560
Speaker 1: of last year's pace a little bit. Going to Draft Kings,

1187
01:00:29,640 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 1: let's just talk a little bit about what DK was

1188
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 1: seeing on this NFL Sunday against the spread, the top

1189
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:40,560
Speaker 1: three teams by ticket count were the Bills, the Bengals,

1190
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 1: and the Buccaneers. The Bills got there easily at Carolina.

1191
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers got there pretty easily against the New Orleans Saints.

1192
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 1: The Bengals looked like they were going to get there

1193
01:00:50,960 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 1: easily against the Jets, leading by fourteen with ten minutes left,

1194
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:57,920
Speaker 1: and they lose the game outright thirty nine thirty eight,

1195
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:01,240
Speaker 1: So on bet count that that did not go the

1196
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:04,360
Speaker 1: way of the betters. In terms of money against the spread.

1197
01:01:04,680 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: The top three at Draft Kings again the Bills, So

1198
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 1: the Bills were number one and tickets and money. Bengals

1199
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 1: were number two tickets and money. Number three in money

1200
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:14,800
Speaker 1: was the Patriots. And the Patriots are quickly becoming a

1201
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 1: really trendy public team when you consider this team only

1202
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 1: won four games in each of the last two seasons.

1203
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: Now they're six and two straight up again and against

1204
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 1: the spread, and they have become very much trending with

1205
01:01:28,240 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 1: the public, I should say. Looking at the top three

1206
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 1: money line underdog bets in Week eight at Draft Kings

1207
01:01:35,360 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 1: by ticket count, forty nine Ers, Bears, Cowboys by money

1208
01:01:40,520 --> 01:01:43,400
Speaker 1: Bears forty nine Ers Cowboys, so the same three teams,

1209
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 1: but in different order, and none of those three teams

1210
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 1: got there. A couple of big plays at Draft Kings

1211
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 1: came in today as well, relatively big plays. It was

1212
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 1: a kind of a dearth of the six figure bets

1213
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:57,440
Speaker 1: that we've seen over the first several weeks of the season,

1214
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:00,680
Speaker 1: but a couple of decent interesting plays came at Draft Kings.

1215
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:03,320
Speaker 1: Forty thousand dollars in the Steelers money line plus one

1216
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 1: thirty against the Packers. The Packers were another favorite that

1217
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 1: got there and covered and actually with relative ease as

1218
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:12,360
Speaker 1: they rolled through the second half. So forty thousand dollars

1219
01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: on the Pittsburgh Steelers money line plus one thirty. That

1220
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 1: bet goes begging. That is a forty thousand dollars donation

1221
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:19,640
Speaker 1: to the house. And then this interesting play A lot

1222
01:02:19,720 --> 01:02:21,520
Speaker 1: I've seen a lot more of this this season, more

1223
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 1: so in college than in the NFL, but placing sizeable

1224
01:02:25,160 --> 01:02:29,120
Speaker 1: wagers on sizeable favorites on the money line, and in

1225
01:02:29,120 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 1: this case, Draft Kings took a twenty four thousand dollars

1226
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:35,360
Speaker 1: bet on the Colts money line minus twelve hundred. The

1227
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:38,920
Speaker 1: Colts were a huge favorite, like two touchdown favorite against Tennessee.

1228
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:41,919
Speaker 1: So it was twenty four thousand dollars to win two

1229
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 1: thousand bucks. You can't complain too much about the ROI

1230
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:48,240
Speaker 1: a little less than ten percent, but boy, twenty four

1231
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 1: grand to minus twelve hundred in the league as volatile

1232
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:53,200
Speaker 1: as the NFL can be, as we saw today with

1233
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 1: the Bengals losing and the Falcons losing. Jumping ahead to

1234
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:00,160
Speaker 1: the Monday night game, Agains sticking with draft Kings got

1235
01:03:00,200 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 1: commanders against the Chiefs. This is a pretty big number.

1236
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:04,760
Speaker 1: Looks like we're at ten and a half now, so

1237
01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 1: I think it's actually coming back down. Washington will not

1238
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:11,520
Speaker 1: have Jayden Daniels at quarterback, which is why that spread

1239
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 1: is so big. And you've got on the spread ticke

1240
01:03:15,000 --> 01:03:17,440
Speaker 1: account almost two to one in favor of the Chiefs.

1241
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:20,080
Speaker 1: Money about two and a half to one in favor

1242
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 1: of the Chiefs, and on the total, it's sitting at

1243
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,440
Speaker 1: forty eight and a half, sixty four percent of bets

1244
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 1: on the over, fifty seven percent of money on the over,

1245
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 1: and that says we're heading into Monday and then just

1246
01:03:31,440 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 1: a quick peek to next week. Kansas City Chief Buffalo

1247
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:37,800
Speaker 1: Bill's massive, massive game. It's not in primetime, but it

1248
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:39,960
Speaker 1: is in the late window on Sunday. Early action on

1249
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,400
Speaker 1: that DraftKings has Kansas City as a one and a

1250
01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:46,919
Speaker 1: half point road favorite against Buffalo and very early action,

1251
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 1: fifty eight percent of spread bets fifty seven percent of

1252
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:53,800
Speaker 1: spread money is actually on Kansas City. So some interesting

1253
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 1: stats looking ahead to easily the marquee matchup in the

1254
01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:02,240
Speaker 1: NFL week market. We'll talk to you all next week.

1255
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 3: Thanks a lot, all right, that'll do it here on

1256
01:04:04,720 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 3: the Action Hour podcast for our NFL Week eight recap

1257
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 3: episode presented by DraftKings. Give us a like on the

1258
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 3: YouTube video before you take off. We really appreciate it,

1259
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:17,439
Speaker 3: and also go to Action hour dot com slash pro

1260
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 3: and use a promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars

1261
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 3: off a year of Action Pro. If you haven't yet,

1262
01:04:22,400 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 3: check out our new AI quick Slipbot on x Just

1263
01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:30,320
Speaker 3: dag tag playbook at playbook and tell it to grab

1264
01:04:30,360 --> 01:04:33,200
Speaker 3: whatever bets you're looking for and it'll create a quicksliuplink

1265
01:04:33,240 --> 01:04:35,240
Speaker 3: for you in a matter of seconds. We will be

1266
01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 3: back for Action Island before Monday Night's game. Right here

1267
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:41,400
Speaker 3: on Action hours YouTube page, as well as more NFL

1268
01:04:41,440 --> 01:04:44,480
Speaker 3: bets from Brandon to six pack from Raybond and Stucky,

1269
01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:47,760
Speaker 3: Anytime Touchdowns and more on the podcast Speed next week

1270
01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 3: before Week nine. Thank you for listening, Good luck with

1271
01:04:50,960 --> 01:05:07,240
Speaker 3: all your bets this week go on shops.

1272
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:13,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1273
01:05:13,560 --> 01:05:16,360
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1274
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,480
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler