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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance to something which by its nature

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Speaker 1: cannot be forecast. If you could forecast, that wouldn't be innovation.

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Speaker 1: We think that people have leap probbed what is reasonable

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Speaker 1: into excessive worry. We took some major fiscal steps to

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Speaker 1: extend the economy in two thousand nine, were followed up

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Speaker 1: with several more, but those ended prematurely. Bloomberg s Bailey's

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Speaker 1: Your Link to the world of economics, finance, and investment

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning, Michael McKee along with Tom Keene.

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Speaker 1: It is seven am on Wall Street seven pm in Tokyo,

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Speaker 1: where the Bank of Japan is in the middle of

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Speaker 1: a two day meeting. Imagine most of the world's central

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Speaker 1: banks meeting at the same time. What would you call it?

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Speaker 1: We call that this week monetary policy being made in

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Speaker 1: the U S, tom, UK, Japan, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa,

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Speaker 1: and Russia, along with some other emerging many would you

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Speaker 1: would have that whole list of names. And on top

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Speaker 1: of that political the German elections yesterday followed by a

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Speaker 1: big day at the polls in the US Tomorrow going

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Speaker 1: to be a very interesting day for investors, interesting week

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Speaker 1: for investors around the world. Head of all that three

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Speaker 1: day winning streak for Japanese equities, the knee k up

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Speaker 1: one and three quarters percent the end weekends almost to

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Speaker 1: one fourteen one thirteen sixty eight. At this point the

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Speaker 1: foot see ahead of the Bank of England meeting is

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Speaker 1: higher right now by thirty six points six tenths of

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Speaker 1: eight percent. The pound is weaker one fifty five. European

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Speaker 1: equities overall stronger. The stocks six hundred is three points

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Speaker 1: higher this morning, eight tenths of eight percent. The euro

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Speaker 1: has weakened one eleven fifteen, though still way stronger than

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, way stronger than it was when the ECB

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Speaker 1: met last week. UH strong protest vote against Angela Merkel

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Speaker 1: in Germany, but the docks is up this morning a

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty five points one point six percent. UH the

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Speaker 1: US stronger dollar, lower oil. They seem to go together.

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Speaker 1: West Texas down almost two percent this morning, thirty six

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Speaker 1: eight one and a half percent lower, which has futures

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Speaker 1: down SMP evening features of four points about two tenths

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Speaker 1: of eight percent, a tenth drop for down futures fifteen

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Speaker 1: points as that features down four points right now a

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Speaker 1: tenth of eight percent. Interesting that central bank risk is

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Speaker 1: definitely in the markets this week, but as I noted,

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Speaker 1: in Germany, political risk is not, and in the US,

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Speaker 1: investors don't seem rattled at the moment by Trump, is um.

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Speaker 1: Richard hass Is, President of the Council on Foreign Relations.

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Speaker 1: We thank him for coming by this morning. Richard, not

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Speaker 1: our investors feeling so protected by central bank policy that

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Speaker 1: they don't need to worry at the moment about the

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Speaker 1: political divisions that seem to be arising in countries around

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Speaker 1: the world. I'm not sure people are seeing the connections

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Speaker 1: that you may be assuming here. So you have all

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Speaker 1: the events you talked about, from any number of central

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Speaker 1: banks meeting to you know, terrorist attacks and the code

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Speaker 1: de Voi or in Anchora, to the German state elections,

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Speaker 1: to the primary elections here. But I don't think people

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Speaker 1: necessarily are drawing direct lines or links between any of

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Speaker 1: those events and their economic situation, which they see is

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Speaker 1: as something that's apart from that. I'm much more fundamental.

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Speaker 1: The question that came to my mind when UM what

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Speaker 1: I was thinking about over the weekend with with what's

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Speaker 1: going on with Trump and what's going on in Germany

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Speaker 1: and what's going on in England as they prepare for

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Speaker 1: their meeting with fiscal policy just off the board. When

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy is what people say, you know, the experts

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Speaker 1: say would really help. What how have we gotten to

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Speaker 1: the point where people so thoroughly reject that which would

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Speaker 1: be good for them, Because fiscal policy is you and

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Speaker 1: people listening to show, you know, is about spending and taxing,

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Speaker 1: and there's hard it's hard to think about two more

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Speaker 1: politically loaded questions than how to tax and how to

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Speaker 1: spend monetary He has the advantage of being made by

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Speaker 1: a few people who are essentially apart from the political process.

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Speaker 1: That's the strength, that's the strength of it. But you

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Speaker 1: can't take fiscal policy out of the political process. It

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Speaker 1: is the political process, and essentially it's gridlocked in most countries.

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Speaker 1: For years though it was just talk about the US

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Speaker 1: for years, the federal government spent money to stimulate the economy. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Kanese economics was accepted U and now uh the whole

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Speaker 1: idea of any kind of fiscal activity is an athema.

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Speaker 1: Well it is, and you see it particularlyuse of some

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Speaker 1: changes in the in the Republican Party. And I think

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Speaker 1: in this country. I won't speak for others. The inability

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Speaker 1: to agree on fiscal policy is increasingly a reflection of

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Speaker 1: the polarization of of of our politics. I think you

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Speaker 1: had you finally had say a budget deal this year.

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Speaker 1: But what's is interesting is what it didn't get to,

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Speaker 1: among other things, that it didn't touch, entitlements, it didn't

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Speaker 1: touch uh some important parts of the society and the economy.

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Speaker 1: Infrastructure is still not getting funded anywhere near the way

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Speaker 1: it uh it should in this country. I just think

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Speaker 1: these things, uh here are the inability to deal with

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Speaker 1: fiscal policy is a reflection of our political gridlock, and

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Speaker 1: I just don't see at the moment how to how

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Speaker 1: to change that anytime soon. An important conversation this morning

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Speaker 1: with Richard hasas the Council on Foreign Relations. Of course,

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Speaker 1: with all due respect with our politics, look for that

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Speaker 1: this evening and through the election day tomorrow in Florida,

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Speaker 1: Ohio and others selected states. Bloomberg Surveillance this Monday brought

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Speaker 1: to you you by Investco. Investco believes it's time to say

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Speaker 1: goodbye to the traditional sixty forties stock bond allocations, say

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Speaker 1: Learn more at Investco dot com, slash Alts Investco I

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Speaker 1: n v s CEO Investco dot com, slash Alts A

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Speaker 1: l t S and we thank Investco for their commitment

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Speaker 1: to our conversation on economics, finance, investment and internettional relations,

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Speaker 1: which means Richard Hans is a good person to speak to.

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Speaker 1: What's your new book going to be called? I know

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Speaker 1: you've already sold the movie rights. What what's the book

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Speaker 1: going to be called? I'm not sure who you're playing that, Tom.

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Speaker 1: It's called The World in Disarray and Penguin Press is

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Speaker 1: publishing it later this year. It is America in disarray.

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Speaker 1: No one thought we'd be where we are after the

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Speaker 1: last ten days we've seen. Define establishment and it's a

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Speaker 1: hugely misused word. Define establishment and tell me what the

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Speaker 1: to do list is. One of the reasons the world

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Speaker 1: isn't disarray is because the United States isn't disarray. And

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Speaker 1: one of the reasons the United States is in disarray

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Speaker 1: is there isn't any establishment anymore. And by that I

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Speaker 1: mean there there's there's no consensus. There's no consensus between

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Speaker 1: the parties we were just talking about that, there's no

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Speaker 1: consensus within the parties. There's no consensus outside the parties.

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Speaker 1: This is a country which has changed in so many

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Speaker 1: ways demographically, uh, politically, economically, socially. The consensus was born

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Speaker 1: of the United States. It was very much centered in

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Speaker 1: the northeast. It was a much smaller country in terms

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Speaker 1: of population, much more controlled by men. It was controlled

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Speaker 1: by politics that was essentially between the forty yard lines.

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Speaker 1: Major media had a large role. It was before the

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Speaker 1: Internet and so forth. Well, suddenly we're seeing narrowcasting rather

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Speaker 1: than broadcasting. We're seeing all sorts of ways of funding

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Speaker 1: our politics that don't require parties. Uh, We're seeing the

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Speaker 1: country has demographically changed in any number of ways. So

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Speaker 1: I actually think it's it's increasingly impossible to speak of

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Speaker 1: an establishment that also has unraveled because of political developments

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Speaker 1: from Vietnam to the to the two thousand three Iraq War.

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Speaker 1: On foreign policy, basic questions about civil liberties versus privacy,

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Speaker 1: look at the debate between FBI and Apple, some of

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Speaker 1: the problems over two thousand eight, and fundamental questions now

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Speaker 1: we're seeing, for example, about trade. Used to have an

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Speaker 1: establishment view that free trade was good to United States.

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Speaker 1: That is completely out the window. And both Democrats and

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Speaker 1: Republicans are beginning to question, and Michael Ambassador House told

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Speaker 1: me an hour ago that EPP really is at risk.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just it's just evaporated after what we've

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Speaker 1: seen over two years. I just don't see it getting passed.

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Speaker 1: Uh not just before the election. It's very hard to

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Speaker 1: see how it gets passed in the Lane Duck now

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Speaker 1: and in its present form. I don't think any of

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Speaker 1: the four top people would be committed to passing against them.

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Speaker 1: You're talking about either renegotiation with the other parties, which

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Speaker 1: is extremely difficult, or some sort of a unilateral deal

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Speaker 1: on the United States between the Executive Branch and Congress

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Speaker 1: certain sorts of side agreements and understandings. So either way

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Speaker 1: that the path for t p P has become far

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Speaker 1: more tenuous. Let me ask you to expand on what

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Speaker 1: you said about no UM consensus. We tend we're in

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Speaker 1: the northeast, We're in New York. We are where the

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Speaker 1: media focus is. We watch television constantly, the cable networks

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Speaker 1: in the tank for Donald Trump, and uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: all this stuff that's going on. But in the rest

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Speaker 1: of the country where people aren't as narrowly focused minute

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Speaker 1: by minute on all this stuff. Is there more of

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Speaker 1: a UH consensus about what should happen in the country?

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Speaker 1: In other words, is there more of a middle class,

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Speaker 1: a middle not class, but the middle view of what

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Speaker 1: should happen out there than maybe we give credit? I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so in terms of what the policy

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Speaker 1: should be and is often disconnects. So you see people

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Speaker 1: you know, very concerned about any changes to entitle it's

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Speaker 1: the Social Security to medicaid you see. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: they also then will complain, complain about the size of

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Speaker 1: the deficit and the debt UH an issue after issue.

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Speaker 1: I think there's certain intellectual and political disconnects. But no,

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Speaker 1: I don't think if you get outside with the Beltway

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Speaker 1: in Washington, or the Northeast Corridor, the Amtract Corridor, I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's a what we call the RC rest

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Speaker 1: of the country consensus. I don't think. I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's it's there. Mike mentioned, I believe it was a

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Speaker 1: Michigan election in that Tuesday a week ago seems forever ago.

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Speaker 1: After what we witnessed, the massive turnout, in the massive

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Speaker 1: belief that this system is not working, the the overwhelming

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Speaker 1: thing is a public that flat out disagrees with the

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Speaker 1: elite optimism we get in this show, absolutely, and people

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Speaker 1: don't feel the system is working for them. I think

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Speaker 1: they feel it's rigged. And what's interesting is if you

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Speaker 1: take some of the talking points of Donald Trump and

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Speaker 1: some of the talking points of Bernie Sanders, there's a

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Speaker 1: considerable overlap between those talking pointions is considerable, well, uh,

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Speaker 1: common deal, but they're both in some ways crossover candidates.

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Speaker 1: And I think we're beginning to see tom and this

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Speaker 1: is slightly dangerous ground, but I think we're beginning to

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Speaker 1: see greater class appeals in American side of the part

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Speaker 1: of the ethos of the United States because of upward

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Speaker 1: mobility is we never really thought about class. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: come back with Richard Hanks of the Console on forig relations,

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Speaker 1: these important conversations before Florida, Ohio and others vote tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: Futures negative four. All right, that's second with Michael bar

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Speaker 1: Got the latest World of National Headlines, Miel Mike time,

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Five primaries take place tomorrow and

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Speaker 1: the can Bits are trying to push their case Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump could basically set up an insurmountable lead if he

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Speaker 1: has a big day. His Republican rivals continue their criticism

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Speaker 1: of the violence at some of Trump's rallies, accusing Trump

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Speaker 1: of causing it with his comments. The primaries are in Ohio, Illinois, Missouri,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, and Florida. Turkey's air force is hitting Kurdish

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Speaker 1: rebels in northern Iraq today, hours after a suicide car

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Speaker 1: bombing and anchor killed thirty seven people and heightened tensions

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Speaker 1: with the Kurdish Trebles. Police plan to resume their search

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Speaker 1: later this morning on the Hudson River for the body

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Speaker 1: of a third crew member who went missing after a

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Speaker 1: tug boat crashed into a barge north of New York City.

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Speaker 1: The accident caused the tug boat to sink. Last night,

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Speaker 1: police diver stopped searching inside the sunken tug boat for

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Speaker 1: fifty six year old Harry Hernandez. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our journalists and more than

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Speaker 1: a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. I'm

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Speaker 1: Mike Labar Macha, thanks so much. Yeah and one thirteen

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Speaker 1: sixty nine. Slightly Weaker Yean this morning with Richard hass.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg's surveillance Bloomberg surveillances, brought you by your

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Speaker 1: try State BMW centers, visit the online and try State

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Speaker 1: BMW dot com at the MW. They make only one thing,

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Speaker 1: the ultimate driving machine,