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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree?

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Speaker 2: Five five dollars? This is a ratable upon how they traveled.

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Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable.

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Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, I mistake prone,

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Speaker 2: the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless.

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Speaker 2: What it's up, everybody. Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network. In Fantasy Abs, I'm your host,

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Speaker 2: Chris Raybond super Bowl match of his set. We got

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Speaker 2: one final game to go, Kansas City Chiefs Philadelphia Eagles.

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Speaker 2: So here for some early projections breakdown. Along with me,

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Speaker 2: is one of the most accurate rankers in the game,

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Speaker 2: the odds maker Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 1: Sean has it gone, it's up happy super Bowl week

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Speaker 1: or I guess a week before Super Bowl week. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: ready to dive into like the initial props, I would say,

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Speaker 1: and kind of your overall thoughts on your process for

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Speaker 1: this game. But yeah, looking forward to this one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So we have prop markets out, so we just

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Speaker 2: kind of went over our initial projections, so we'll kind

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Speaker 2: of compare those now and then we'll have our prop

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Speaker 2: shows where we give out our actual live best bets

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Speaker 2: and stuff like that, so stay tuned for those. But

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Speaker 2: quick reminder that all of our fantasy football contents available

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Speaker 2: right now over on fantasywabs dot com. You can find

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Speaker 2: all of our ranking projections more at fantasyabs dot com.

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Speaker 2: So let's jump right into quarterbacks and I'll just give

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Speaker 2: out some of the numbers that are out in the market.

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Speaker 2: So for Patrick Mahomes, we have his passing yardage prop

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Speaker 2: at two forty nine and a half and then it

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Speaker 2: hurts is at about two ten and a half and

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Speaker 2: then attempts Mahomes thirty six and a half, hurts twenty

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Speaker 2: six and a half. Sean, what are your initial thoughts

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Speaker 2: on just to quarterback market. I know for me personal

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Speaker 2: I seem to be a little bit lower on Mahomes's

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Speaker 2: yardage numbers, But what about you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, same with me yardage attempts. You know, this

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Speaker 1: is going to be a tough matchup against this Eagles defense.

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Speaker 1: Plus the Eagles do a really good job of, you know,

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Speaker 1: dominating time and possession. They're a very run heavy team.

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Speaker 1: They allowed the second fewest plays per game, So maybe

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Speaker 1: Mahomes volume might not be as high in this game,

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Speaker 1: and it seemed like the Chiefs form have to go

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Speaker 1: look at their pass right over expected, but they seem

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Speaker 1: very content just banging cream Hunt up the middle over

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Speaker 1: and over again, a few yards at a time, so

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Speaker 1: that that chips away at Mahomes, you know, pass attempts,

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Speaker 1: passing yardage, and you know, I mentioned it before we

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Speaker 1: went to the player playoffs. Mahomes is always gonna be

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Speaker 1: you know, he's gonna have a higher scramble rate. Last

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Speaker 1: week against the Bills, he scrambled six times, a season high,

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Speaker 1: and then four times against the Texans, which is one

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Speaker 1: of the highest of the seasons. So every time he scrambles,

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Speaker 1: that's taking away from his attempts yards and things like that.

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Speaker 1: So I'm right there with you. A lot of underlying

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Speaker 1: factors kind of backed that up as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder if I wonder if the run the

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Speaker 2: path ratio itself though, kind of goes back to normal,

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Speaker 2: just because I'm just thinking about the match up, and

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Speaker 2: you know, we talked about on the show last week

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Speaker 2: how Pacheco especially we really had trouble running the ball

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Speaker 2: with this new configuration of the offensive line with Kaliendo

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Speaker 2: at guard and Tooney at tackle, and you mentioned like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're just kind of smashing Kareem Hunt up in there,

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Speaker 2: so I could see a past heavier game script just

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Speaker 2: because you don't I mean, I don't like Kareem Hunt

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Speaker 2: against Jalen Carter and you know, like with that, you know,

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Speaker 2: Caliendo at guard. I don't think that's something they on

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Speaker 2: a matterive paper of the target, so that will normalize.

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Speaker 2: But the scrambles are definitely something that tends to take

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Speaker 2: away from his attempts in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the same thing with his rushing yards prop. I'd

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Speaker 1: be careful with that one because he's scrambling a lot,

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Speaker 1: but he does have a propensity to kneel down for

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Speaker 1: minus five minus ten yards. We all remember that Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl prop hit where I think he was at like

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Speaker 1: forty rushing yards and he went under his twenty nine

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Speaker 1: and a half per rushing prop. So you gotta be

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Speaker 1: careful there. So I think, like this is my idea,

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Speaker 1: but like, if you're gonna back Mahomes his rushing prop,

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Speaker 1: maybe look at first quarter, first half props to kind

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Speaker 1: of avoid that. I don't know, I have to look

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Speaker 1: into them, but that's one sneaky thing I've thought about

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Speaker 1: first couple of days here.

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Speaker 2: So the normal quarterback per kneel down is going to

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Speaker 2: be about minus over long term, it's gonna be about

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Speaker 2: one minus one point one yards per Yeah, Mahomes in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs is about minus two. So yeah, he had

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Speaker 2: It's not every time he nails down, but he has

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Speaker 2: some ridiculously you know, those new doubts where you just

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Speaker 2: kind of you're walking back slowly disappearing into the bush,

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Speaker 2: like the harm Simpson.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly him.

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Speaker 2: Unless the Chiefs are unless it's you know, the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are up like three points and the clock is running

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Speaker 2: down and the spread stays at one and a half,

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Speaker 2: then they'll then they'll just take a safety and then

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Speaker 2: you don't have to worry about That's true, Yeah, because

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Speaker 2: the NFL's rigged, all right, I didn't It seems like

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Speaker 2: everyone says it. Jalen hurts. So let's see, he's got yeah,

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Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half, two ten and a half,

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Speaker 2: so expecting a little more. I feel like those numbers

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Speaker 2: are a little higher than they were, definitely higher than

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Speaker 2: they were for the championship game. What do you see

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Speaker 2: for him as far as throwing the ball. He seemed

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Speaker 2: fine against Washington, so it's probably gonna come down to

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Speaker 2: the games group, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the question I had going into the

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Speaker 1: last game is just, you know, how the need would look,

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Speaker 1: and it was a mixed bag because there were certainly

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Speaker 1: some times where he was looking avoid a sac so

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Speaker 1: he ended up scrambling, but he just slid down as

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Speaker 1: soon as it looked like anybody was near him. But

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Speaker 1: then he looked great on that touchdown run that was

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Speaker 1: called back, right, it was like a twenty yard rushing

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Speaker 1: touchdown that got called back. He looked fine there. So

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking, with you know, an extra week of rest,

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Speaker 1: he'll probably be closer to one hundred percent come Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl time. So I'm going to be projecting his rushing

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Speaker 1: upside is scramble right, pretty much as expected. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: when it comes to just expected game script, I mean

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, you know, they trailed twenty five percent of

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Speaker 1: the time this year, but with a you know, pick

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Speaker 1: them basically a pickup points spread, I have him closer

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Speaker 1: to forty two percent here, So that's a seventeen percent

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Speaker 1: increase and you know expected trail rate, so that's a

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Speaker 1: pretty big bump. We could see him, you know, drop

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Speaker 1: back to pass more. Whether that turns into attempts or scrambles,

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Speaker 1: you know, that'll be divvied up in the projections. But

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Speaker 1: you mentioned last week. I think I set that prop

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Speaker 1: on Mahomes completions versus hurts pass attempts, and he kind

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Speaker 1: of like hurts his potential there, So I think same

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Speaker 1: applies here. At like twenty six passing attempts sounds about right,

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Speaker 1: But he could certainly clear that if if the Eagles

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Speaker 1: do get down by a score or two early on,

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Speaker 1: like he'll he'll clear that. So it all depends on

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Speaker 1: kind of what game script you're expecting and what correlates

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Speaker 1: with other props you're doing. But you know he could

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Speaker 1: throw thirty plus times here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was at that last Super Bowl when it

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Speaker 2: seemed like him to Mahomes, they were backwards in terms

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Speaker 2: of their passes down by the end of the game,

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Speaker 2: I think Mahomes ended with like a buck eighty two

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Speaker 2: or something and it hurts through for three hundred plus.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's certainly it's certainly possible. And yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think the rushing probably goes back to know all his

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Speaker 2: rushing props where they.

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Speaker 1: Round.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, around thirty eight to forty in the market. That

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Speaker 2: sounds about right for him.

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Speaker 1: In this rushi attempts is nine and a half. I

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Speaker 1: saw people saying they wish they could bet on like

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Speaker 1: how many times they'll run the tush push play. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's kind of how you do it. His Russi attempt

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Speaker 1: prop right, So it's and a half. Now, that's that's

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Speaker 1: a little bit higher than I have. I haven't around nine,

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Speaker 1: but any any thoughts on his actual attempts, let me

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Speaker 1: look at mine.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is a little Yeah, this is a little

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Speaker 2: high also because on the off chance that you know,

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Speaker 2: Philly is up big at the end of the game,

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Speaker 2: which not not likely but possible, you could see you know,

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Speaker 2: some Kenny Pickett kneel downs instead of Jay when hurts,

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Speaker 2: which is what happened in the Washington game, Like Kenny

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Speaker 2: Pickett got the two nail down, So you know, something

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Speaker 2: like that always factors in a little bit too. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: still seems a little bit high. But I think the

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Speaker 2: fact that his knee is back to normal and like

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Speaker 2: you said, they'll probably drop back more than normal. So

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Speaker 2: and I don't think he's gonna hesitate like He's their

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Speaker 2: whole thing has been avoiding risk, right, So if he's

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Speaker 2: dropping back in the most important game and he doesn't

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Speaker 2: see anything that he wants, he's gonna scramble. So I

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Speaker 2: could see it getting there. But yeah, it's just median wise,

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Speaker 2: seems a little high to start the week. But I'm

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Speaker 2: not like crazy high. Just I mean, it's just hard

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Speaker 2: to project running quarterbacks in the playoffs because they're they're

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Speaker 2: you know, they're kind of trait that their tendency has

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Speaker 2: changed so much. You know, it's like Josh Allen second

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Speaker 2: half of the year even just scrambled a lot more

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Speaker 2: and they called more design runs. So it is a

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Speaker 2: little tough, but yeah, I think I think it should

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Speaker 2: be around nine nine for Hurts. All let's let's go

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Speaker 2: to the running backs. Actually, it's tough some running backs here,

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Speaker 2: because it is quite interesting. I mean, on one side

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Speaker 2: you got Saquon Barkley. On the other side you got

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Speaker 2: this uh kind of what committee backfield going on here.

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Speaker 2: So first of all, let's see what's what do we got?

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Speaker 2: What do we what are we thinking? For Saquon is

191
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Speaker 2: after closing out what like one hundred and thirty in

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Speaker 2: the Conference championship. His rushing prop is looks like one

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Speaker 2: fourteen and a half is the consensus around the market.

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Speaker 2: How do you feel about that?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this time last week I was saying

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Speaker 1: it seems like the market can't set it high enough.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, closed around one twenty five. He's finished with

198
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Speaker 1: one eighteen. I mean the first play of the game,

199
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Speaker 1: he took it to the house, right, so that was

200
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 1: looking good. But he mp saying under because he was

201
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,920
Speaker 1: definitely dealing with some sort of like calf issue. Kenny

202
00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,319
Speaker 1: game Will got way more snaps than I was projecting,

203
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Speaker 1: so the calf was certainly an issue. I doubt it

204
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Speaker 1: will be in a couple of weeks. So I'm right

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Speaker 1: in line with Saquon here. You know, I respect the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs run defense a little bit more than the you know,

207
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Speaker 1: Commanders a lot more, so it makes sense for it

208
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Speaker 1: to be lower if anything like His attempt prop is

209
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Speaker 1: kind of interesting because again he's probably due for some

210
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Speaker 1: you know, sixty plus yard touchdown regression. So if the

211
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Speaker 1: Chiefs do a much better job in like limiting those

212
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Speaker 1: massive touchdowns, it could just result in more plays for

213
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Speaker 1: the Eagles to run, right, Because if anytime he runs

214
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Speaker 1: for a sixty plus yard touchdown that wipes out an

215
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Speaker 1: entire driver. They could have ran, you know, six seven

216
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Speaker 1: more plays, so the thing is a temp prop might

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Speaker 1: be interesting. I'm also waiting to see what's up with

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Speaker 1: Kenny Gainwell. He's in the concussion protocol. I believe more

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Speaker 1: likely for him to be you know, cleared by the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. But I almost gave out Gainwell under nine

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Speaker 1: and a half rush yards last game. I got kind

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Speaker 1: of you know, uh, he stayed under because he got

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Speaker 1: knocked out of the game. But I'm thinking if Saquon

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Speaker 1: Barkley's healthy, He's gonna get pretty much every snap he

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Speaker 1: can handle, so it might be tough to have Gainwell

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Speaker 1: see you know, a couple of carries, so I'm waiting

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Speaker 1: to see if they offer gain wroll props. But what

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Speaker 1: are the chances you think Gainwell can get like two

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Speaker 1: plus carries here? I think the.

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Speaker 2: Median is probably one and a half, like I like

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Speaker 2: sometimes the Eagles usually rotate at least one another back

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Speaker 2: in like in like in the playoffs, they usually rotate

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Speaker 2: more running backs in. Then you would think even like

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Speaker 2: even for having a Saquon Barkley, So I would think

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Speaker 2: I would think he probably gets like the media is

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Speaker 2: probably either gonna be one or one and a half.

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Speaker 2: It just depends on if it's him, if it's will

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Speaker 2: Ship We. Maybe the Medians won, but will Ship.

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Speaker 1: He was really good.

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Speaker 2: I mean, maybe maybe they just give some of those

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Speaker 2: cats those handoffs to will Ship We and let game.

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Speaker 1: Even more. I think even more reason to fade game

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Speaker 1: will But they were offering game well at two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Rush tempts last game and you know that

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Speaker 1: rams game Barkley. When Barkley checked out, he like he

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Speaker 1: had a big catch and run, he checked himself out

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Speaker 1: of the game and he checked out for you know

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Speaker 1: handful of plays. Those are really the only plays the

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Speaker 1: game will play that game. So again, I think the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl, I think Barkley is going to be able

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Speaker 1: to play every snap he can. So I'll still be

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Speaker 1: looking to do a game will fade somehow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think if it hopefully if they

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Speaker 2: post like a longest run or something like that, like

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Speaker 2: on the presumption that he's getting like more than two carries,

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Speaker 2: I think that would be an interesting fade too, like

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Speaker 2: just take the under on that as well. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: and then I mean yeah, As far as the Chiefs defense,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. It's hard to It's hard to gauge

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Speaker 2: because they were really good in the regular season and

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Speaker 2: then but then the match if they had, like for example,

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Speaker 2: the last match, if they had against the Bills, It's like,

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Speaker 2: the Bills faced the number one defense against running backs,

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Speaker 2: who are the Ravens. They faced number three, which are

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Speaker 2: the Broncos, and then they faced the Chiefs, and I

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Speaker 2: thought the Bills ran it fine, you know, with James Cook.

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Speaker 2: So it's like and then the week before the Texans

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Speaker 2: ran it pretty well with Mixing. So it's like, is

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Speaker 2: this is this still the same run defense or are

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Speaker 2: they is it that they didn't really care about stopping

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Speaker 2: the run as much? What do you think I could

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Speaker 2: their run defense efficiency, how do you think that plays in?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that that could be the case. I think they're

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Speaker 1: gonna obviously focus on the run game here, but I

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Speaker 1: think this defense is solid. They have a solid run defense.

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Speaker 1: You know, everybody's healthy. They even got you know, Jalen

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Speaker 1: Watson back a couple of games ago. So I think

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Speaker 1: they'll just scheme for the matchup, and this is a

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Speaker 1: matchup where I think they're going to be trying to

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Speaker 1: slow down Saquon Barkley, at least limit his explosives. I

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Speaker 1: don't think you can really stop Saquon Barkley, but you

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Speaker 1: know they're going to try to slow them down for sure.

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Speaker 2: All right now, now the discussion that we've all been waiting,

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Speaker 2: We got to flip it over the chief side, because

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Speaker 2: I mean, every week you come asking me for a

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Speaker 2: running back to fade and I'm just like, bros. It's

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Speaker 2: just I say it for Checko. So let's start with

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Speaker 2: let's start this. I see the market is eleven and

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Speaker 2: a half carries for Hunt, six and a half for

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Speaker 2: for Checko. Is that too much? Too little? Or in line?

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Speaker 1: Uh? Yeah? I think they finally have the split, right.

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Speaker 1: I think the Hunt pro might be a bit high,

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Speaker 1: you know, I have them closer to ten point seven carries. Again,

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Speaker 1: I think it goes back to just both these teams

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Speaker 1: are really good at you know, dominic time and possession,

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Speaker 1: but they play each other here. So I think the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs will probably have less play volume than normal, just

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Speaker 1: considering the Eagles run the ball a ton, they keep

299
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Speaker 1: the clock running, so the Chiefs might have fewer you know,

300
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Speaker 1: run plays overall. I still, uh, you know I have

301
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Speaker 1: Hunt dominating carries I have I know you projected a

302
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Speaker 1: little bit differently, but I have him having around forty

303
00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:11,280
Speaker 1: of their their team total attempts. I have put check

304
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Speaker 1: Away down there with you. But having said all that,

305
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Speaker 1: I've Hunt around ten points. I just don't know how

306
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Speaker 1: effective he'll be in I don't know if they'll stick

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Speaker 1: with it. So it's tricky, like I don't want to

308
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,800
Speaker 1: fade Mahomes rushing yards and Kareem hunts rush attempts. I

309
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,920
Speaker 1: kind of got to pick one. But yeah, where where

310
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Speaker 1: do you have like the Hunt Pacheco splits ope in

311
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Speaker 1: the week?

312
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Hunt yeah ten eight, and then I

313
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 2: have Projecko at four point five. So I'm sick. I'm

314
00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 2: six carries between them. The market is five, so again

315
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Speaker 2: I'm somehow still Yeah, I p Checko.

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Speaker 1: Would you rather fade his would you rather? Would you

317
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 1: rather fade his attempts or his like his efficiency, his

318
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Speaker 1: like rushing yards.

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Speaker 2: In this matchup puts see I gotta I think so

320
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Speaker 2: this is his yardage is twenty two and a half.

321
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,640
Speaker 2: I would probably rather fade his attempts in this case

322
00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:14,520
Speaker 2: because I'm two attempts lower. But and like, I mean,

323
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Speaker 2: I'd fade all of them. I just like, because this

324
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: is what I kind of talked about. It's like he

325
00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 2: doesn't look good, he's not running well, like he's just

326
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 2: not in I think the time off just kind of

327
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 2: like he's not in sync with the line the way

328
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Speaker 2: he was earlier in the year, earlier in his career.

329
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Speaker 2: And I think they're just going away from him more so,

330
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,360
Speaker 2: you know, he could bust a long run, but he

331
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Speaker 2: just hasn't. He still still only has I think one

332
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Speaker 2: ten yard run ten plus yard run since since coming back.

333
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Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, I don't know, like I tend to,

334
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,840
Speaker 2: I tend to just find whatever i'm off more, which

335
00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:51,640
Speaker 2: in this case looks like the attempts. But I mean

336
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Speaker 2: i'd be fine. I'd be fine afraid to all of them.

337
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:56,000
Speaker 2: I probably will. What about you?

338
00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:01,120
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, Like again, I think hunt Russia tempt prop

339
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,000
Speaker 1: it's probably a little too high, not running to the

340
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,080
Speaker 1: window to bet it or anything. I always find it

341
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:11,679
Speaker 1: fascinating there. They're a nightmare to project obviously when it

342
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 1: comes to rush tempts. What about the receiving props? My god,

343
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:17,919
Speaker 1: it's just an even split across the board. I have

344
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 1: all three projected for nine receiving yards, which you know,

345
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,160
Speaker 1: if if you factor in the median would be around

346
00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 1: six and a half. I can't find anything I want

347
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,880
Speaker 1: to do with that. But do you have any read

348
00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 1: on like the receiving props because they all kind of

349
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:37,200
Speaker 1: they're all kind of projected for one catch and last. Yeah,

350
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,760
Speaker 1: you know, they all ran cream, Hunt led the led

351
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,679
Speaker 1: the backfield with the thirty run rate, but he's just

352
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 1: never targeted. So do you see anything any angle on

353
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:49,960
Speaker 1: the receiving props or you just in line with the

354
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:50,480
Speaker 1: market too?

355
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so I have I mean I guess

356
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 2: it's because I'm regressing their target per route rate a

357
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 2: little bit. So I do have. I have Hunt with

358
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 2: one point five catches to Checo one point three and

359
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,919
Speaker 2: p Run one point Oh. But that's just kind of

360
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,920
Speaker 2: based on like my quick uh kind of put it.

361
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,200
Speaker 2: Putting those target per route I mean, putting those route

362
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,479
Speaker 2: rates exactly where they were last game. I'll probably you know,

363
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,879
Speaker 2: get them a little closer together when I look deeper

364
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 2: into it. But yeah, I think I think so, I

365
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 2: think it's hard they're harder to fade there because number one,

366
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:28,760
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs will pass a little bit more.

367
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 1: Number two.

368
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 2: I think the whole thing with Pacheco too, that's making

369
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,360
Speaker 2: it tough for that for him to run is because

370
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:36,640
Speaker 2: it's a little more of a tip off when he's

371
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 2: in the game, and so the Chiefs what they try

372
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 2: to do is try to break tendency and have him

373
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,040
Speaker 2: in the game for more pass plays. So like, you know,

374
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,400
Speaker 2: it's hard to fade him. Like I still would rather

375
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 2: fade Pacheco on the run. On the on the run game.

376
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 2: I look at you could actually get Pacheco under the

377
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 2: longest carry nine and a half in the market. If

378
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,360
Speaker 2: if you're projecting my like my four and a half carries,

379
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,480
Speaker 2: that's still that's still a smash under because you know

380
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 2: that depends on volume twos. But and yeah, so yeah,

381
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,160
Speaker 2: there's a couple of ways for favorite check but yeah

382
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,720
Speaker 2: they're receiving. It's yeah, I have him. I have Hunt

383
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 2: ten yards, p Run nine yards, and Checko eight yards

384
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 2: because I have pe Ryan for more yards. Pertect because

385
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,679
Speaker 2: you know sometimes Chelsey that Kelsey lateral or you know

386
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:24,040
Speaker 2: the little like he just he seems to get sprung more.

387
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, his age scheme plus not negative, which kind of

388
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 1: helps him out. Yeah, Pa Checko, that's interesting. You said

389
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 1: you were projecting him for one point three receptions. If

390
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 1: I heard yeah, yeah, his his props four and a

391
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,560
Speaker 1: half yards. I'm probably not going to actually bet his

392
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,120
Speaker 1: over and make an official play, but I probably show

393
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 1: some value on the over four and a half. Not

394
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 1: something I want to sweat, but he has been getting

395
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 1: targets when he does see the rare route run and

396
00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: he's only caught seventy three percent of his target this year,

397
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 1: so he's probably due for some positive cat regression should

398
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,439
Speaker 1: be closer to, you know, eighty eighty five percent, so

399
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: I think Pachecko, Uh yeah, I would agree with the

400
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 1: fade on the rush tempts. But if there was a market,

401
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,040
Speaker 1: I would say he's offering some sneaky value. It'd be

402
00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: the over four and a half receiving yards. But that's

403
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 1: that's kind of a dangerous market to be investing in

404
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 1: with with the three backs, kind of splitting the work

405
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 1: there pretty evenly, So not going to touch it, but

406
00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 1: I would show even it's.

407
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 2: Been Kareem Hunt, I feel like, well the lead, it's

408
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: always been Kareem Hunt in terms of yeah, like in

409
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 2: terms of routes run. But if you were to factor

410
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 2: in target rate, yeah, yeah, we we have all three

411
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 2: pretty much with the same projection.

412
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm getting at. So, yeah, Pachecko has

413
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 1: some a little bit more upside when it comes to

414
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: the receiving market as opposed to this brushing market. Of course.

415
00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, yeah, until we see otherwise. But it

416
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 2: just it seems like the Chiefs are kind of realizing it.

417
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 2: You know, they have two weeks off, so I'm sure,

418
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,919
Speaker 2: you know, we'll see some new rink and they're definitely

419
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,440
Speaker 2: he'll definitely get carries, but they seem to go away

420
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 2: from him quicker and quicker in these days, and we

421
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 2: know Hunt's going to get those goal line opportunities. So

422
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 2: before we jump into wide receiver, we've been as we've

423
00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:17,399
Speaker 2: been discussing, the stage is set for Super Bowl fifty

424
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,560
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433
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434
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Speaker 2: and even next college football and NFL season.

435
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Speaker 1: So don't wait.

436
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 2: Visit Actionnetwork dot com slash SB to get forty dollars

437
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 2: off Action Pro And if you're looking for early Super

438
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 2: Bowl props from Sean Kerner and I, check out the

439
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast for two sets of live shows this

440
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 2: Wednesday and next Wednesday. The first will be four pm

441
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 2: Eastern and the second at six pm Eastern the next

442
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 2: two Wednesdays, So market calendars Wednesday, January twenty ninth, Wednesday

443
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 2: February third, four pm and six pm on the Action

444
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 2: Network YouTube page and in the Action app. This is

445
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 2: an audience favorite and one of our favorite shows to

446
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 2: do each year. The lines on these props move quickly,

447
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 2: so you absolutely want to be there live. Let's jump

448
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 2: to wide receiver and we'll start with the Kansas City Chiefs.

449
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 2: Look at Xavier worthies up to fifty four and a

450
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 2: half in the market, Hollywood Browns around four deth where

451
00:22:54,840 --> 00:23:00,159
Speaker 2: he was last game. Hopkins Hopkins is interesting Sean Ju.

452
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: I remember we were talking on the Touchdown Show and

453
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,399
Speaker 2: I was giving out anytime touchdown for Juju. You had

454
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 2: the right idea. It didn't come through the touchdown, but

455
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 2: I think you wracked up sixty. Uh and so what

456
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 2: do you make of kind of this? The lower tier

457
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 2: of the chief wide receivers, like the Hopkins is the

458
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 2: Jujus and the and the Watson's anything. You're seeing theirrow

459
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 2: with Hopkins essentially at like catch catching a half in

460
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 2: the market.

461
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 1: Oh my god. I hope we get a Justin Watson

462
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: prop or like a first quarter Justin Watson prop like

463
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: last year I got it like even money. Yeah. Like,

464
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: I think I'm pretty much aligned with Worthy and Hollywood Brown.

465
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 1: They're probably a little inflated. This is a Super Bowl.

466
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see a lot of these

467
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 1: props inflated to the over. We're going to see a

468
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: ton of new action on props, I think, and you

469
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,479
Speaker 1: know it's mostly gonna be on over. So those guys,

470
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 1: I'm probably not interested in fading them or backing them.

471
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 1: It is interesting when you get, uh, you know, past

472
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: the top two receivers. You would think DeAndre Hopkins would

473
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 1: be the number three receiver. But like you said, Juju

474
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: ran a route twice as many routes as Hopkins last week,

475
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:07,640
Speaker 1: so that's happening.

476
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,639
Speaker 2: So yeah, like, well, before we stop you, let me

477
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 2: stop you, before we even before you continue, hold that thought,

478
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: what what what are you projecting for this game for Juju,

479
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 2: like routes run?

480
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: Well, that's I was going to ask you. Yeah, I

481
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 1: got I got it like low fifties, like if I'm

482
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 1: being precise, like fifty two percent. Uh, sort of split

483
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: in the baby when it comes to these first two

484
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: playoff games, and I have Hopkins like low to mid forties,

485
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 1: Like I don't know if they can run them just

486
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 1: thirty one percent of the routes. Again here, I think

487
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: it'll be low forties. But I have I have Juju

488
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: about ten percent higher than Hopkins right now. So I've

489
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 1: let's go a fifty two percent for Juju and forty

490
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,360
Speaker 1: three percent for Hopkins. Where are you at?

491
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty for Juju, thirty eight thirty seven to five

492
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 2: for hop You know I go in two and a

493
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 2: half inter rule thirty really have to get for.

494
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: Hopkins.

495
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, all right, And I mean that's that is

496
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: kind of splitting the baby, like you said, and so

497
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 2: and I mean I'll do like a deeper dive again,

498
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 2: and unless I see a bigger reason. Because the thing

499
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 2: about these, you know, things like route rate, carry share

500
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 2: outside of like outlier game scripts and things like that,

501
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 2: these these stabilize really quickly if you're using them as

502
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 2: like a predictive number, just because they're they're human decided.

503
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 2: You know, like there's a coach telling Hopkins to like

504
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 2: go in or stay on the sideline. It's not like

505
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 2: a catch rate or something like that, where you know,

506
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 2: even a target rate is a little mix of both.

507
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 2: It's like what the quarterback is doing and what the

508
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 2: defense is doing and how good the receiver is like,

509
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 2: but you know, route rate is just more like, okay,

510
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: there is some variance in terms of personnel and you know,

511
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: maybe you have a bunch of goal line where there's

512
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 2: no receivers on the field or something like that. But

513
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 2: in general, you know, you have to use these, You

514
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: have to treat these last few games, you know, put

515
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: a lot of weight on them. So yeah, it's Hopkins

516
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 2: Hopkins is trending in the wrong direction for you know,

517
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 2: heading into the Super Bowl.

518
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 1: They have the same exact receiving yard prop right now,

519
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: Juju and Hopkins at fourteen and a half. Does that

520
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: mean you're interested in anyone's over there or under? Like, uh,

521
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: are you inligned with that?

522
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 2: But like it's crazy, I have Hopkins about three three

523
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: yards ahead of Juju still. I mean that's just I

524
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 2: guess because of their season long efficiencies. So I'll do

525
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 2: my deep dive. But interested in a Juju I mean

526
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 2: interested in the Hopkins or Juju over No, not at

527
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 2: first glance, but like just those Eagles d backs are

528
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: so good, so I'd have to I'm trying to think

529
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 2: about that. The way the scheme would work, you would

530
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 2: you would have Hopkins on either Sleigh or Quinon Mitchell

531
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: most of the time. So that's that's not what I want.

532
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: But then you have you have Juju on all those guys.

533
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: Plus I would I would probably mean Juju just because

534
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,920
Speaker 2: I feel like kind of similar to this game, like

535
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 2: how you're watching Hopkins when he's in the game right,

536
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 2: like he's a potential future Hall of Famer. Like if

537
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 2: I'm thinking how defensive coordinators think, you know, Hopkins, he

538
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 2: might not be in there that much, but when he's

539
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 2: in there, better watch his ass. Whereas like Juju, we

540
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 2: know we kind of know what Juju is, so i'd

541
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 2: probably mean over on Juju cause just because that's kind

542
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 2: of how you know, the defense would be scheming. But

543
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 2: what about you.

544
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, if anything, I'm showing some slight value on Hopkins over.

545
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 1: The one thing about Hopkins season long rate stats is

546
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: you know he was getting targets from Will Levis at

547
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 1: one point, so.

548
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I affected that out.

549
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I want the listener. The listener if

550
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: if you're making projections for this game, you're playing around,

551
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 1: you have to make sure that you're factoring that in.

552
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 1: He was getting targets from Will Levis earlier in the season,

553
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 1: and how he's getting targets from Patrick Mahomes, so he's

554
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: probably more likely to catch the target throwing his way.

555
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 1: But yeah, I have Hopkins, you know, way less routes

556
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 1: run but a higher target right, and you know, well

557
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 1: his a dot's not the same as usually the past

558
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: couple of games. So like, when do you think they

559
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: would use Hopkins, like maybe around like the end zone

560
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: like they don't take many. When do you think.

561
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,959
Speaker 2: That the Texans are planning to use Deontay Johnson? When

562
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: do you think the Bills are planning to using Mary Cooper?

563
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 2: I don't know never. I just I'm just going off

564
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 2: like this is this is the playoffs seat the season

565
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: of traded guys underused traded guys.

566
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, It's almost like, you know, they added Hopkins

567
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: to kind of hold things down until Hollywood Brown came back.

568
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: It's clear their plan was to have Hollyer Brown be

569
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 1: a top two receiver in this offense. So ever since

570
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 1: he came back, you know, Hopkins role has only gone down,

571
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 1: So I think that's playing a huge part. So yeah,

572
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: I'm kind of with you. I'm not as low as

573
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,719
Speaker 1: you when it comes to his routes run rate, but

574
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: still I definitely have Juju being operating at least as

575
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: the number three receiver this next week.

576
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I think the overall theme of

577
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 2: the Chiefs offense and why you're seeing the splits you're

578
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: seeing is they're trying. You know, they realize that they

579
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 2: need to get the ball out of Mahome's hands quickly

580
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: on a lot of these plays because the tackle situation.

581
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 2: You have Kelsey's your number one receiver. He's not you know,

582
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: he is what he is. He's a great receiver over

583
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: the middle, not a speed guy. So what I think

584
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 2: they're trying to do is, you know, the way you

585
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 2: would surround like somebody with shooters in the NBA. Like

586
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: they're just trying to surround Kelsey with speed, right. So

587
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 2: I think that's why we're seeing Worthy get more involved

588
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 2: in the seasons progressed and and Hollywood Brown immediately jump

589
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 2: everybody because he gives you. And that's why I think

590
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 2: even why we see Watson get snaps at all, because

591
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 2: most teams don't have to give snaps to their number

592
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 2: five receiver, Like there's no rule that like most teams

593
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: don't actually give snaps to their number five receiver, Like

594
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: ask Zach Pascal, ask who's on the Casey Washington on

595
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 2: the you know what I mean. Like, there's a many

596
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 2: teams that don't give snaps to the number five wide receiver.

597
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 2: The Chiefs do, And I think it's just because just

598
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 2: to get that speed on the field for a few

599
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:21,240
Speaker 2: plays here and there. So uh yeah, I'm with you.

600
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,479
Speaker 2: I think he could definitely bounce back, but The thing

601
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 2: about it was Hopkins ceiling was this year is what

602
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 2: like six little like sixty two percent run rate sixty

603
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 2: five So it's not even like we're talking bounce back.

604
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 2: We're just talking, uh, you know, minimal, minimal ceiling. But

605
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 2: I mean this, this feels like a throwback to the

606
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 2: last Super Bowl with the Chiefs and the Eagles, when

607
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 2: in that one it was where it was like Juju

608
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 2: was trending down and he was like the veteran that

609
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 2: we had no idea what to do with and uh,

610
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: and now it's Hopkins.

611
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, speaking of number five receivers again, I hope

612
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: they float justin Watson half receiving yard prop. There's no

613
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 1: way they could offer it, know, minus one fifteen both ways,

614
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: the under would have to be minus one eighty ish

615
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: that range. Right, there's no way, there's no way they could.

616
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 2: All I'm trying to think, I'm trying to do the

617
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: calculation of I haven't like like a little under a

618
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 2: half a catch, which you know, so that's like the

619
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 2: meeting in the lower Yeah.

620
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're talking like no vigue, you know, minus one

621
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 1: forty minus one fifty there if you have it round

622
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: what point four?

623
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the point three.

624
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, a point three. We're we're talking. We're approaching minus

625
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 1: two hundred for the under there.

626
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 2: The book still owe me for for that, John Bates,

627
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 2: if you ask. Now, it's about time to get right

628
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 2: on one of these half half a yard under. Oh man,

629
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:53,960
Speaker 2: all right, let's jump over to the eagle side. Let's

630
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 2: see what we got going on here. So A. J.

631
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 2: Brown finally corrected, corrected himself a little bit. With the

632
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 2: big game. He's at sixty nine seventy in the market

633
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 2: for receiving yards and then Davante fifty one and a half.

634
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 2: Goddard and Davante are pretty even. Any thoughts on that?

635
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 2: On that that one, I know, God has been a

636
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,719
Speaker 2: popular play already because just because the chief struggles against

637
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 2: the tight ends.

638
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 1: They're even in in what receptions.

639
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 2: Receiving yardage in the market.

640
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 1: I would I would favor Yeah, I would favor Davante,

641
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 1: and I have the receptions pretty close. Even though Goddard

642
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 1: does have a higher yards per catch, I still think

643
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: Davante has a higher ceiling than him in terms of

644
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: receiving yards. So I have Davante with a few yards

645
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: ahead of him. Not saying I'm betting on is over

646
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 1: or under there, But uh again, I think Davante has

647
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: a higher ceiling there for an explosive play. But just

648
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 1: when it comes to the Eagles wide receivers, would you

649
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 1: say that this is one of the easier groups to

650
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: project week the week because it's a j Brown and

651
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:09,479
Speaker 1: DeVante Smith dominating targets. And then we have Johan Dotson

652
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: with his seventy percent routes run rate where he probably

653
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: won't see a target. He was he was the cardio

654
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 1: king last week. I think he had twenty six routes

655
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 1: run with zero targets, so twenty one routes run with

656
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: no targets, so you know his prop will be fascinating.

657
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: It's three and a half yards, it's down to two

658
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: and a half. Now, I don't want to say I

659
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: might take the under there, but it's a super Bowl,

660
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: so we could see something crazy. We're like, the first

661
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: play they target Johan Dotson, Right, have you seen crazy

662
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: things like that happen? Or like I saw.

663
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 2: That happened in the wasn't that didn't that happen in

664
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: the wildcar room?

665
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: Was theown they did? Right?

666
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 2: Something like that? Yeah?

667
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 1: Thirty five?

668
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 2: So the thing is it's it really comes back to

669
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: reads with with the is because while I think a

670
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: lot of like in a normal offense, Johan Dotson probably

671
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 2: would be more likely to catch the ball in a

672
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 2: game like this the Eagles, they're not. It's not like

673
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,919
Speaker 2: you're gonna put Johan Dotson as a top three read

674
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 2: pretty much anytime. So it's like it really depends on

675
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 2: like that one off where either Jalen Hurts makes it

676
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,919
Speaker 2: through like four or five progressions or like the one off,

677
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: like one play out of like a hundred that he's

678
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 2: the first reading. Now because even in the game, in

679
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: the Rams game, he was open on a bunch of

680
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: stuff and Jalon didn't hit him, and Jaalon had that

681
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 2: bad game, and so you would think coming into the

682
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 2: next game, Okay, like that's probably one of the corrections

683
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:47,440
Speaker 2: they're gonna he's gonna make is Okay, let me let

684
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 2: me look for Dotson because he's probably gonna be wide

685
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,919
Speaker 2: open because the defense is gonna daren me to throw

686
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,439
Speaker 2: throw at him. But yeah, that didn't happen. So yeah,

687
00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: it's hard. It's hard to say with him, Uh, I

688
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 2: would lean under unless it's like a unless it turns

689
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,839
Speaker 2: into like a just like another one of those high

690
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 2: volume hurts games like the last Super Bowl. I think

691
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 2: that's the best. It's just you just it's just more

692
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 2: reps than anything. But I don't think there's gonna be

693
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 2: any anything in the playbook that's gonna say, let's waste

694
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 2: one of our twenty past a tenth.

695
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: Yeah exactly right, yeah, exactly. They don't seem the type

696
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 1: to do that. I think a better question would be

697
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: how do you think Spags approaches this game? And how

698
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 1: often does he used man versus own? And does he

699
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 1: have McDuffie follow anybody around, Like do you have any

700
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: insight like how he might be handling this or are

701
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: like if they play zone and they line up, you know,

702
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 1: Dotson in front of McDuffie, that might make sense, Like

703
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 1: I'm kind of interested if you have any idea yet,

704
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 1: like how they plan to attack, Like.

705
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would think I would think you see more

706
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:56,400
Speaker 2: jay When Watson than first of all, just more j

707
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: Wen Watson on the field than you've seen in the

708
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 2: past two games, because he played a lot that second

709
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,399
Speaker 2: and half against the Bills, but didn't first first half

710
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 2: seam like he with him and Naci Johnson were still

711
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 2: kind of rotating, so I will you will see that.

712
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: My guess is they'll mix it up, like I don't

713
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs like they they play more man than

714
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 2: most and they'll probably still do that because they can

715
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 2: because they have, you know, the horses to do it.

716
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, I expect some man and when when they do,

717
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 2: I would expect McDuffie to be on AJ I think.

718
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 2: But I think I think they'll mix it up because

719
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,399
Speaker 2: you know, you can have that with Jayalen Watson back.

720
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,879
Speaker 2: It gives you more options, especially against a team that's

721
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: really throwing you know, uh like a target chair that's

722
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 2: gonna be condensed. So yeah, but I think I think

723
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 2: McDuffie as a shadow, I think I think you might

724
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 2: even might see McDuffie fall smith some players, I think though,

725
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: I think Spags will mix it up. That's how they

726
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 2: won the game against Buffalo, mixing it up. Like they

727
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: showed pressure and brought it from the opposite side all

728
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 2: night until the last play they showed pressure, just brought it,

729
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 2: brought it from the side that they were showing it

730
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: and and they had slid the protection the opposite way.

731
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 2: So it's really tough to like get a handle on

732
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: exactly what's fact he's gonna do, other than to say

733
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 2: expect them to mix it up and expect expect that

734
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: least one or two wrinkles that they don't expect. So

735
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 2: but yeah, default, I would say I would expect like,

736
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 2: just uh some McDuffie, and I would expect a decent

737
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: amount of man because they've done that every week and

738
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: a reason not too.

739
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree that that's kind of where I'm thinking,

740
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 1: and I'm thinking I'm thinking about the tackle props. Of course,

741
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 1: so McDuffie's at four and a half not really involved

742
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 1: in run defense, he kind of just leaves that to

743
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,879
Speaker 1: everybody else. He's gonna run.

744
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 2: He could run the parts of your defense that you

745
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 2: didn't existed.

746
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 1: That's true, that's true. Taekwon does bring everybody else involved.

747
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 1: I might have an angle there for tomorrow. But yeah,

748
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 1: like McDuffie at four and a half, if he if

749
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: he's not as involved in run defense like he has

750
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 1: been this season, that would be tough to clear. And

751
00:37:55,640 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 1: if you know, Hurts throws the Brown or Smith depending

752
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: on which guy McDuffie's on, just throwing away from McDuffie,

753
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: that that would help and anytime McDuffie's lined up across

754
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: from Johan Dotson, he's not getting a tackle there. So

755
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 1: McDuffie's under four and a half is interesting. But I'm

756
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 1: still trying to figure out like how they're gonna approach it.

757
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's that's one angle I was thinking when

758
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 1: it comes.

759
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 2: To that, what is the median tackles for like a

760
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:24,399
Speaker 2: starting corner like around four or is it?

761
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, like four and a half's a pretty big number,

762
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: especially like when it comes to cornerbacks that like the

763
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 1: rookie cornerbacks where quarterbacks are targeting them heavily or they're

764
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: facing you know, stud receiver, you could see their props

765
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,400
Speaker 1: at four and a half. Stud corners usually their medians

766
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: like three and a half. So McDuffie at four and

767
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,600
Speaker 1: a half is definitely interesting. To open the week looking for.

768
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 2: Weekly projections from me and Sean Kerner, the only place

769
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: you'll find them is a Fantasy Labs dot com. You'll

770
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 2: get our weekly player projections every week, plus access to

771
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 2: a suite of two, including our lineup optimizer and our

772
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 2: all new sim Labs lineup builder that uses the power

773
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:09,840
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774
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:14,120
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775
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:18,160
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776
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 2: first month of Fantasy Labs DFS. We've dropped the link

777
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 2: in this episode's description. Just remember to use code flex

778
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 2: forty at checkout. Yeah, I mean I could signify just

779
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 2: a higher volume pass game in general from the Eagles,

780
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 2: which is certainly certainly possible. I guess it really comes

781
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 2: down to the explosives with Saquon, like you said.

782
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean they're only expected to face what

783
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 1: sixteen and a half completions. Usually the Chiefs are facing

784
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: a team that's you know, trailing trying to come back,

785
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: and they you know, they cough up twenty plus completions,

786
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 1: so they're not even expected to face as many completions

787
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 1: as normal. So I just noticed, is his prop was

788
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 1: kind of high. Even if he's on aj brown Aton,

789
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean he's going to give up you know,

790
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: five plus receptions. That's not the case at all. So

791
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 1: it just seemed like his his proper was a bit high,

792
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 1: just considering you know, how good he is.

793
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, yeah, it's it's probably just kind of

794
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 2: looking at Okay, when the Egos do pass, they're gonna go.

795
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 1: To A J. Brown And yeah, I.

796
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,359
Speaker 2: Guess because he had you know, he probably I mean,

797
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: he's a good he's a good bet to catch five balls,

798
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: probably all of them being on mcguffy.

799
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: That's a different story, exactly.

800
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,919
Speaker 2: The tight ends. So we got yeah, so talked about

801
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 2: Goddard Kelsey. He's he's at sixty three and a half,

802
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 2: sixty one to sixty three and a half in the market.

803
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 2: Actually some spot time' a little bit more where you

804
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 2: gotta put him out of the streak is broken. You

805
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: don't have to project them from seventy every game. Yeah,

806
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,839
Speaker 2: but where do you actually, like, do you see him?

807
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: You know, he was kind of quiet in this one.

808
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 2: Where do you see what do you see him doing

809
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 2: in in against the egos? Given that they do have

810
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: those just that that great cornerback trio.

811
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm actually right in line with him this week, Tope.

812
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:03,799
Speaker 1: In the week. I'm just so pissed because last week

813
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 1: I was showing something ridiculous like eighteen yards of value

814
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: on his under But of course I have that one role.

815
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: I just don't fade Kelsey ever, really so, especially in

816
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 1: the playoffs, so I didn't even touch it. He finished

817
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: way under. But now I'm in line with the market.

818
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,879
Speaker 1: I think the time to fade him was last week.

819
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 1: But you know he had a eighty nine percent routes

820
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: run rate last week. I bet we see ninety percent

821
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: in this game. And I think, more importantly, what the

822
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: hell happened with Noah Gray?

823
00:41:30,680 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 2: If I know poor went out for my guys, stucky?

824
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: He was all over and no a grain. Oh she's

825
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 2: trying so disappointing, right.

826
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: What do I have an error in my spreadsheet? Or

827
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 1: did he actually only run around on nine percent dropbacks

828
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 1: last last week? Oh? Not?

829
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 2: Wait nine sounds? Let me see? Yeah that low? That

830
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 2: sounded super Well.

831
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,800
Speaker 1: I'm looking at different sources and he ran around twenty.

832
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 1: I have twenty twenty percent? Okay, yeah, I have percent

833
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: off to see what's going on on there? Shot? How

834
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 1: much for hender? Shot? Okay? You because I have Gray

835
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: with three routes around last week? Whoa?

836
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 2: Now I can al capo up the box one right now? No,

837
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:25,760
Speaker 2: no he had I think he had seven eleven pass snaps,

838
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:30,720
Speaker 2: seven routes, uh, two pass blocking and two Just like penalty,

839
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 2: It depends on which yeah, I'm I'm with the PFF,

840
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,360
Speaker 2: so so disclosure and yees. So they that's that's what

841
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 2: I usually use for my routes. And yeah, they got

842
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 2: him at at seven, which I mean, that's you know

843
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 2: what are surprising in dis matchup because in that matchup

844
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 2: against Buffalo, just because Buffalo had been struggling over the

845
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 2: middle of the field. We saw that against Baltimore with

846
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: Likely kind of popping off, Mark Andrews popping off. But

847
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 2: it is a trend we've kind of seen as Hollywood

848
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 2: Brown has gotten more involved in the offense that they

849
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 2: haven't run quite as many two and three tight end sets.

850
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 2: So I mean, I think against the Eagles you could

851
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:12,479
Speaker 2: see it returned just because remember one is the Chiefs,

852
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 2: they always kind of switch it up a little bit

853
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 2: game in the game. But number two, the cornerbacks are

854
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 2: really the strength of that Eagles defense. And you know,

855
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 2: you could you could have Kelsey and Gray going up

856
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: against their old nemesis or in Burks again in the

857
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: UH and then the linebacking corps for Philadelphia. So yeah,

858
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 2: I mean that's that's interesting. Where do you have Gray

859
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 2: projected then, I mean, I don't know if you want

860
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 2: to updating his routes now.

861
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 1: But no, no, no, no, no no, that was on next

862
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 1: in stats because okay, actually they display routes for guys

863
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 1: that didn't get a target. I kind of like it.

864
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,919
Speaker 1: It's kind of nice. I like that too. But yeah,

865
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: they differently, especially with the tight end he probably they

866
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: probably they're a little bit more strict on what they

867
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 1: call a route, like if he's blocking and then he

868
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: releases last second chip and release yeah, yeah, yeah, So

869
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 1: that's at the end of the day, I'm not really

870
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: factoring that in when it comes to my projection more importantly,

871
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 1: I was gonna ask what your projected routes run rate?

872
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: I still have it around thirty? Do you have it

873
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: around thirty or do you have it around forty? Like

874
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 1: where do you have it? Bounce thirty five.

875
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 2: Thirty five, eighty seven to five for Kelsey, thirty five

876
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 2: for Gray, twelve and a half for Hendershot, And that's

877
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:24,320
Speaker 2: going that's just essentially the averages of the two playoff games,

878
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 2: except Kelsey is higher because you'll, yeah, he was like

879
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 2: at seventy eight percent in the first playoff game, gotcha.

880
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, and you also have to you have to

881
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 2: kind of there's a little noise in like just how

882
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 2: much they block, you know, so you kind of got

883
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 2: to look at the the pass naps. So yeah, so

884
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,240
Speaker 2: Gray thirty percent of the pass naps last week, about

885
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:46,440
Speaker 2: fifty percent the week before. So you say about forty

886
00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:49,439
Speaker 2: percent on average, and then he blocks, you know, about

887
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,439
Speaker 2: ten percent time. So yeah, yeah, about thirty five feel

888
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: decently about that?

889
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: What about you? Yeah, I have thirty percent. I think

890
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:58,919
Speaker 1: it has to do with exactly what you said. Ever

891
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 1: since Hollywood Brown came back, you know, Gray's usage has

892
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: really taken a hit. Last week was pretty stark. Some

893
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 1: weighing that a little bit more than you, But I

894
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 1: could definitely see how you'd arrive at thirty five percent. Like, yeah,

895
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 1: I think anywhere in that thirty thirty five percent range

896
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 1: makes sense. But he's a player that I'm certainly looking

897
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: into his markets.

898
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 2: But he yeah, like he got him. He's got a

899
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 2: receiving yardage prop market wide about eleven to twelve. I

900
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:35,919
Speaker 2: have him at fourteen. Mean yeah, so yeah, I'm about

901
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 2: I'm guess I'm in line with that. Try maybe like

902
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 2: a yard under what about you?

903
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in that range. He's definitely a player. I

904
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 1: want to take a deeper dive at you know, run

905
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 1: some sims, you know, things like that. But just he

906
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: does have the potential for more downside than not most weeks.

907
00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'll be looking into his props a little

908
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: bit more, you know, chopping at the bit for Justin

909
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: Watson prop to pop up, if I'm being honest, But

910
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: he's definitely somebody I'll be looking. I'll take a diaper

911
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:11,759
Speaker 1: deeper dive in Kelsey. Kelsey. I want nothing to do

912
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: with Kelsey. I'm not fading him. I'm not backing him,

913
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: like I'm just gonna be betting on other chiefs.

914
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 2: I mean might maybe you know what they'll do in

915
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 2: the playoffs is though in the super Bowl, they'll they'll

916
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 2: just uh, they'll give routes to Niki Nico Romidio.

917
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, like, if they have a trick

918
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:31,000
Speaker 1: play up their sleeve with him, they have to use

919
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 1: it here.

920
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 2: Right Uh yeah, I mean, I mean he's the only

921
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 2: thing is he's been a little shaky with the ball security,

922
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 2: but I mean I still using him.

923
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 1: So yeah, he probably played in Week eighteen, right, Yeah, yeah,

924
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: they rested all the starters. How do you do? Let

925
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: me see I remember projecting two for forty eight. I

926
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 1: remember projecting him for.

927
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I had a I had him, I had

928
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 2: a bet on him for first touchdown in that Checksan's game.

929
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,400
Speaker 2: So I was pretty tilted. He got the long return

930
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 2: and then oh yeahs ensued. I was like, oh, we

931
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 2: got it, we got no.

932
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: We know. I think what like one market that might

933
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 1: be interesting when it comes to like him or like

934
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: other players, is they have those props how many Chiefs

935
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: players will catch a pass. I think it's like, ooh,

936
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 1: it's like eight and a half or something, how many

937
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 1: Eagles players will catch a pass? And it kind of

938
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,760
Speaker 1: like captures everything we've been talking about with these teams

939
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: where I'd probably lean on the Chiefs over and the

940
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,399
Speaker 1: Eagles under because they have such a narrow target tree.

941
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,279
Speaker 1: But yeah, those would be props that I'd be on

942
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 1: the lookout for for our numerous prop shows coming up.

943
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:43,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Eagles just probably comes down to

944
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 2: whether Johan Hassen.

945
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like Jahan Calcata and Johnny Wilson, like those

946
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 1: guys come bined, right. Yeah.

947
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 2: I mean if Johan does it, then it's unlike the

948
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,399
Speaker 2: others do. But yeah, it's yeah, any and then any

949
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:03,720
Speaker 2: any punt or any props you're looking out for before

950
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 2: we get out of.

951
00:48:04,120 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 1: Here, Well that's for tomorrow. They're starting to trickle out.

952
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:13,400
Speaker 1: We haven't seen the key you know, the longest shortest punts,

953
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 1: those type of props posted yet, but this time last year,

954
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 1: I think they posted those either on the Tuesday or

955
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: the Wednesday, so those have been trickling out. All I'm

956
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:27,399
Speaker 1: seeing is like total gross punt yards for each team.

957
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:29,719
Speaker 1: That's not exciting. That's still betting on, you know, like

958
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 1: over under three and a half punts. But hopefully by

959
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 1: tomorrow we see some like longest shortest punt props and

960
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: if they have any value, I'll probably be given one

961
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 1: out tomorrow.

962
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,279
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, I'm coming off of our first punt

963
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 2: prop win. I gave out as a long shot Eagles

964
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: to have more punts than the Commanders because you know,

965
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: it's punt and they actually they had dad too and

966
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 2: the Commander's had one nice, So see if I could

967
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 2: keep it going and match you. But looking forward to that,

968
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,319
Speaker 2: and yeah, we'll be back with the iprop show to

969
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:06,840
Speaker 2: be sure to check that out. Until next time, be

970
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 2: sure to check out Fancy Apps dot com for all

971
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,880
Speaker 2: of our fantacy football content and projections. And don't forget

972
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 2: you can you that what we say?

973
00:49:16,880 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: Is it? Oh? Yeah right?

974
00:49:21,080 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 2: And don't forget You can go to Actionnetwork dot com

975
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 2: slash sb right now for forty do discount on Action

976
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 2: pro Sean is on x at the underscore odds maker.

977
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles on

978
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network app. So next time

979
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:50,799
Speaker 2: stiffish money, Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

980
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 2: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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