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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then drout Auto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Taking a look at the markets and specifically what's happening

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Speaker 2: in oil markets today. In the aftermath of President Biden's

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Speaker 2: comments to the press pool, when asked if there were

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Speaker 2: discussions of Israel hitting Iran oil infrastructure and facilities, he

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Speaker 2: said that that was being discussed, then trailed off Joe

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Speaker 2: and ended with anyway and moved on. So, I guess

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Speaker 2: it's a question not only if these discussions are happening,

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Speaker 2: if this is what is likely ultimately to happen in

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Speaker 2: terms of Israel's response to Aron strike from earlier this week,

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Speaker 2: but also if this was ever meant to be made public.

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Speaker 3: Correct remembering yesterday the stark response to the idea of

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Speaker 3: attacking Ron's nuclear facilities, the answer is no was the

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Speaker 3: direct quote. We didn't have definitiveness like that today, And

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Speaker 3: of course the president's words can move markets. We're seeing

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Speaker 3: that happen in real time, as we just heard from

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Speaker 3: Charlie in the crude oil markets. But do you wonder

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Speaker 3: the motivations here whether he was trying to act as

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Speaker 3: a deterrent or something, because obviously this bounces back on

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Speaker 3: the American consumer eventually.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, and at a time where the American consumer already

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Speaker 2: might be about to be affected with higher prices for

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Speaker 2: goods because of an ongoing doc worker strike in which

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Speaker 2: he is supporting the union. It is a variety of

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Speaker 2: factors coming together here when it is crunch time for

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Speaker 2: voter decision making before this election, and it's not necessarily

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Speaker 2: in favor of this administration. Of course, Kamala Harris a

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Speaker 2: part of that.

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Speaker 5: All this was just.

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Speaker 3: Over a month to the election. Nick Wattams is with

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Speaker 3: us right now at the table here in Washington. He

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Speaker 3: runs our national security coverage in Washington. Nick, I wonder

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Speaker 3: your thoughts on this whether the President kind of knew

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Speaker 3: where he was going with that when you consider the

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Speaker 3: idea of you know, taking out I'm looking at some

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Speaker 3: of the graphics on the terminal here, the carg Island terminal,

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Speaker 3: for instance, would impact twenty eight million barrels. Wouldn't that

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Speaker 3: be destructive? To the American consumer.

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Speaker 6: I yes, I this is another one of these situations

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Speaker 6: where you know, the President has been relatively buttoned up

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Speaker 6: in the last several weeks as the White House has

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Speaker 6: looked to put a lot of the focus on Kamala

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Speaker 6: Harris as she continues the campaign. Now he's out a

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Speaker 6: bit more, and you have another Bidenism type of situation.

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Speaker 6: I mean, as you mentioned, there is the contrast between

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Speaker 6: the question of would you attack, would you permit an

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Speaker 6: attack on the nuclear facilities?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 6: But it's so hard to tell because this is one

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Speaker 6: of the situations where a reporter says, hey, would you

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Speaker 6: countenance an attack on Israeli oil facilities? And he says,

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Speaker 6: we're discussing that, Well, what are we discussing range of

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Speaker 6: targets the possibility of an attack? I mean, listen, what

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Speaker 6: we do know is behind the scenes, the US is

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Speaker 6: really working hard to shape the Israeli response. They believe

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Speaker 6: an Israeli response is necessary after that Iranian missile barrage

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Speaker 6: on Tuesday, but they don't want it to turn into

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Speaker 6: something even bigger. And as you mentioned, an attack on

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Speaker 6: oil infrastructure would be very damaging. So I mean, I'm

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Speaker 6: sure President is right, they are discussing this, This is

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Speaker 6: all they're talking about right now in the National Security Council,

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Speaker 6: but really difficult to divine too much from that one common.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I'm sure what they don't want to see

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Speaker 2: happen is for Iran, if its own energy infrastructure is

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Speaker 2: attack to say, all right, straight up, her moves, consider

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Speaker 2: it closed. No energy is coming out of the Gulf,

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Speaker 2: and that has obviously global implications. It's not just us

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Speaker 2: consumers that have to be concerned here. If we could

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Speaker 2: go back to the nuclear question though, which was a

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Speaker 2: definitive no, many people are asking why that is. I

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Speaker 2: was fielding some of these questions myself. Why not just

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Speaker 2: get rid of the nuclear sites, go after that capacity,

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Speaker 2: then you don't have to worry about it. What's the

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Speaker 2: answer to that question.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean, for one thing, Iran says it is

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Speaker 6: not developing a nuclear weapon. It says that its nuclear

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Speaker 6: program is civil as civilian in purpose. So there's that.

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Speaker 6: The other issue is that to Iran has spent the

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Speaker 6: last many years hardening its nuclear facilities. I mean these

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Speaker 6: are deep underground, heavily fortified. We don't know where all

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Speaker 6: these facilities are. Obviously intelligence would have some indication, but

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Speaker 6: to just fully cripple Iran's nuclear program would be a massive,

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Speaker 6: massive undertaking and would require a sustained level of military

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Speaker 6: campaigning that is more than just a one off thing.

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Speaker 2: I mean that more than just Israel potentially, would that

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Speaker 2: require the US.

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Speaker 6: I mean, it's difficult to even go there. I mean,

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Speaker 6: I don't think the US would be involved, really wants

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Speaker 6: to get its own jets and military forces involved, but

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Speaker 6: I mean just taking out Iran's I mean, that would

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Speaker 6: be as escalatory as it gets. And so I mean

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Speaker 6: the question is again energy infrastructure. It's pretty darn escalatory.

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Speaker 6: I mean, but this is really one of the crown

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Speaker 6: jewels for Iran. It's something they've been working on for years.

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Speaker 6: They've dedicated untold resources to it, and it would really

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Speaker 6: strike at the heart of the regime. So that's going

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Speaker 6: to be a decision.

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Speaker 3: Does this have to be a bunker buster though, or

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Speaker 3: some massive military attack? We remember, of course, the cyber

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Speaker 3: attack right that Israel successfully conducted against those Iranian centrifuges

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Speaker 3: that actually set the program back. Can't we be more nuanced?

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean, so this is a big question because

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Speaker 6: there's a lot that Israel and the US can do

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Speaker 6: to Iran that no one would ever know about, I

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Speaker 6: mean a cyber attack, something else along those lines, and

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Speaker 6: could have devastating consequences. But the problem is when you

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Speaker 6: get into a situation where Iran launches two hundred ballistic

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Speaker 6: missiles at Israel, Israel has to then do something that shows,

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Speaker 6: you know, we've got to use the language you want

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Speaker 6: re established to terrence and the signal whatever it is.

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Speaker 6: So they're going to have to do something that's very

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Speaker 6: public this time. And I think that's really the question

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Speaker 6: they're trying to weigh right now.

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Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Nick Wadams, is that a busy week

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Speaker 2: leading our national security coverage. Thank you so much for

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Speaker 2: joining us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. And of

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Speaker 2: course it's been a busy week as well for President

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Speaker 2: Biden as he has been dealing with this, talking with

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Speaker 2: the national security team, the G seven, we understand, also

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Speaker 2: trying to do his job as the President of the

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Speaker 2: United States and in some ways consoler in chief as

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Speaker 2: he surveys disaster zones here in the US.

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Speaker 7: YEP.

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Speaker 3: Back in the field again today, a touchdown in Tallahassee

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Speaker 3: at the beginning of our last hour, Kayley, of course,

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris surveying the damage. Donald Trump says he's going

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Speaker 3: to wait till next week to go to North Carolina

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Speaker 3: because he doesn't want to interfere the rescue efforts, remembering

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Speaker 3: he was in Georgia.

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Speaker 2: On Monday, and of course Joe Biden was in North

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Speaker 2: Carolina yesterday's viewing things from the air in the instruction

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Speaker 2: and specifically the western part of the state, and our

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Speaker 2: next guest has seen that up close and personal as well.

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Speaker 2: Republican Congressman Greg Murphy of North Carolina is with us. Congressman,

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Speaker 2: thank you for being here. Of course, your district is

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Speaker 2: actually on the East Coast and areas that are frequently

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Speaker 2: affected by hurricanes, like the outer banks of North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: But I know you were there in Asheville yesterday. Can

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Speaker 2: you just tell us, sir, what you saw and how

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Speaker 2: far we have to go in understanding the true toll

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Speaker 2: of this particular disaster.

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Speaker 8: This is so much different from the hurricanes and the

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Speaker 8: damage that we've experienced out here on the coast because

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Speaker 8: while we can park water and it takes a while

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Speaker 8: for the water to dissipate in the mountains. It's an

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Speaker 8: entirely different issue because fifty acres of land out here

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Speaker 8: is flat, fifty acres of land in the mountains gives

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Speaker 8: you a V shape. The water comes down very very

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Speaker 8: quickly and with great velocity, comes and pushes things through.

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Speaker 8: So while we have damage that's sustained, theirs is immediate.

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Speaker 8: And you know from the you see one side of

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Speaker 8: a mountain okay, other side where there's landslide and literally houses, businesses,

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Speaker 8: anything that was anywhere near a creek or a ravine

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Speaker 8: are gone. They're gone near flush down the stream Lake Lure.

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Speaker 8: About a third of the lake is filled with debris.

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Speaker 8: So they're going to be three stages. One is life

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Speaker 8: and limb trying to rescue people literally save their lives.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 8: Two is going to be stabilization, make sure people get food, electricity,

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Speaker 8: et cetera. And then the rebuild. The rebuild will take many,

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Speaker 8: many years to put western North Carolina back together like

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Speaker 8: it was before.

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Speaker 3: Well, we certainly believe that with the images that we've

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Speaker 3: been seeing for our viewers on Bloomberg TV. We're showing

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Speaker 3: images of that lake right now. Congressman, it's absolutely shocking

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Speaker 3: to see the video coming out on the daily here.

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Speaker 3: We all have friends, of course who live in the

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Speaker 3: Ashville area, but we're not able to communicate with them

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Speaker 3: for the most part. Some of them started raising hands

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Speaker 3: a couple of days ago. I heard from another today says,

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Speaker 3: I'm very happy to report that we are alive and well.

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Speaker 3: And it's just remarkable to think of folks living in

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Speaker 3: a world where they're cut off from the rest of

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Speaker 3: the world. Sometimes they have the opportunity to catch a

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Speaker 3: Wi Fi signal. Most of the time they don't, though,

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Speaker 3: And I wonder about the immediate effort here to bring

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Speaker 3: people back in touch with the world and bring them

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Speaker 3: clean water. What are the next couple of weeks going

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Speaker 3: to look like in that effort.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you bring up a good point, Joe.

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Speaker 5: It's clean water.

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Speaker 8: That's what people need immediately, things for that, as well

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Speaker 8: as their medicines if people run out of those. So

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Speaker 8: I mean, the word has been out to go out

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Speaker 8: and look for your neighbor. You know, some folks live

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Speaker 8: miles apart, or they live, you know, over on the

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Speaker 8: other side of the hill.

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Speaker 5: Go and check on your neighbor.

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Speaker 8: And then we're hearing trickling reports coming in and I

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Speaker 8: think we will for the next week plus or so

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Speaker 8: of people saying hey, I'm okay. The real sadness is

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Speaker 8: going to be when we don't hear from people for

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Speaker 8: an extended period of time. Sadly enough, I got asked

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Speaker 8: today about body bags and some of the other things

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Speaker 8: that we really don't want to talk about, but will

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Speaker 8: at some point have to talk about because with again

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Speaker 8: the velocity of this storm coming down in ravines like

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Speaker 8: it did, people had no time whatsoever to get out.

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Speaker 8: You don't plan, you can't plan for this event the

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Speaker 8: way it is, and so it's going to be a

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Speaker 8: multifaceted recovery of life limb and hopefully we find as

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Speaker 8: many people alive and good health as possible.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're all hoping for that, Congressman. And when we

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Speaker 2: get to that next stage of recovery of rebuilding, it's

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Speaker 2: going to come at a cost. I think we all

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Speaker 2: know that cost could potentially be incredibly high. So what

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Speaker 2: is the role of your Chamber of the House of

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Speaker 2: Representatives of Congress here to make sure those costs that

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Speaker 2: need is met. What are you hoping to hear from

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Speaker 2: the House Speaker who has suggested Congress may need not

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Speaker 2: come back before the election as scheduled.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, so, I mean, Kaylee, there's money already allotted for FEMA,

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Speaker 8: there's already allotted for the rescue efforts now, and for

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Speaker 8: housing and these type of things. The rebuilding effort really

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Speaker 8: is not going to be anything that's going to do immediate. Again,

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Speaker 8: you know, I talked about the three different phases we

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Speaker 8: have to make sure people are okay. Sadly enough, you know,

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Speaker 8: we've spent I don't know, hundreds of billions of dollars

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Speaker 8: on individuals who've come in the country illegally over the

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Speaker 8: last three and a half years. Wouldn't be great to

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Speaker 8: have that money to actually be able to spend on

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Speaker 8: our own people. That money is gone. It's not worth

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Speaker 8: really even trying to chase it. But it just shows

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Speaker 8: you the dichotomy of planning and trying to care for

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Speaker 8: the American people. We will as a country take care

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Speaker 8: of western North Carolina, the same thing in Georgia, the

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Speaker 8: same thing in Florida. It's going to take a while,

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Speaker 8: and it's going to take a lot of money.

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Speaker 5: To that end.

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris in Georgia yesterday announcing the federal government will

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Speaker 3: cover one hundred percent of the cost of debri removal

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Speaker 3: and emergency protective measures for three months to help the

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Speaker 3: state recover. When you consider numbers like that, whether it's Georgia,

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Speaker 3: the Carolina's Florida, is will that require an additional supplemental

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Speaker 3: emergency funding or can that all be covered by what

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Speaker 3: the government? By what FEMA has.

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Speaker 8: Now, Yeah, I'm not sure she has the authority to

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Speaker 8: say that, but regardless, Joe, North Carolina does an excellent

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Speaker 8: and has done an excellent job in the state legislature

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Speaker 8: putting away money Rainy Day funds five maybe close to

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Speaker 8: six billion dollars to take care of incidents that happened

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Speaker 8: like this in North Carolina. How that money gets apportioned,

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Speaker 8: clean up, debris removal, et cetera, et cetera, all goes

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Speaker 8: to you know, who's in charge of the disaster control

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Speaker 8: per se. It's going to take a lot of money,

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Speaker 8: and it's going to take a lot of resources. You know,

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Speaker 8: people are out with chainsaws. You hear those things going crazy.

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Speaker 5: You've got to make sure that, you know, God forbid

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Speaker 5: a surgeon. We see a lot of.

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Speaker 8: Those accidents, but it's going to take a while just

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Speaker 8: to get people access for transportation.

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Speaker 5: That's first.

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Speaker 8: That's first to being able to get out, get to

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Speaker 8: their get gas, get healthcare, et cetera, get food. But

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Speaker 8: in the long term, there's going to be a lot

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Speaker 8: of things that need to be done.

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Speaker 2: Well, as we consider what needs to be done in

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, I'd like to report point to some reporting

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Speaker 2: out of WRAL in Raleigh, who has reported that the

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Speaker 2: Lieutenant Governor, who of course is the Republican candidate in

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Speaker 2: the gubernatorial reef this cycle, Mark Robinson, was the only

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Speaker 2: Council of State member not to vote on Cooper's request

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Speaker 2: this week to declare a state of emergency, according to records. This,

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Speaker 2: of course, congressman, comes after allegations that Robinson posted a

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Speaker 2: variety of messages on porn sites that many have found

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Speaker 2: to be disqualifying. Is this someone who deserves to be

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Speaker 2: governor of North Carolina as this recovery effort is probably

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Speaker 2: still going to be underway.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, Kaylee, I'm not sure what happened there.

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Speaker 8: All it takes is a phone call when you get

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Speaker 8: on Council of State to agree to something. I can't

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Speaker 8: postulate as to why he didn't. I think everybody else did.

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Speaker 8: I think that's just a responsibility of government. You know,

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Speaker 8: it's going to be after the voters to decide whether

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Speaker 8: he is or not. There are a lot of issues

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Speaker 8: that people have with what's happened and how it's been

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Speaker 8: dealt with. But right now, the main cons my main

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Speaker 8: concern is really taking care of the people of western

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Speaker 8: North Carolina. The East has really come to their aid.

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Speaker 8: You know, they've come to our aid so many times.

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Speaker 8: We've seen truck after truck after truck supplies coming from

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Speaker 8: the east going west. And so you know, the politics

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Speaker 8: will take care of themselves, but people in need right now,

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Speaker 8: whether Republican or Democrat, they're the ones that we need

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Speaker 8: to take care of.

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Speaker 5: The not the party politics.

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Speaker 3: Well, we do appreciate the urgency of that matter, Congressman,

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Speaker 3: which is why we're glad you could join us today

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Speaker 3: and just have a minute left here. Are you getting

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Speaker 3: what you need? Can we say to our audience from

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Speaker 3: the federal government, from the administration right now and so you.

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Speaker 8: Know everybody wants it immediately and be if I've worked

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Speaker 8: in disaster situations after Katrina, I went and worked after

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Speaker 8: the terrible earthquake in Haiti, just as a physician back

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Speaker 8: when before politics. People want things immediately, and we want

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Speaker 8: to supply it immediately. But there is a way to

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Speaker 8: do things and resources that can come. But please, I

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Speaker 8: want folks to remember in their heart of hearts, don't

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Speaker 8: forget this. In two weeks, it won't be as big

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Speaker 8: in flat the news. People will have such devastating needs

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Speaker 8: for weeks, months and years to come. Please, in America,

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Speaker 8: don't forget what has happened during this horrible hurricane.

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Speaker 3: Well, be sure to be reminding our audience of this. Congressman,

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Speaker 3: come back and talk to us when you have another

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Speaker 3: update on conditions in North Carolina. It's Greg Murphy, Republican

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Speaker 3: from Carolina, North Carolina's third but of course it's the

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Speaker 3: western part of the state. As Kayleie mentioned that we've

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Speaker 3: got our eyes on and we'll have much more on

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Speaker 3: this ask for money and the need for resources in

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Speaker 3: the affected states.

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Speaker 9: I'm Joe Matthew.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of

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Speaker 1: Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: It's only the third of October, which is incredible to believe.

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Speaker 2: Of course, just in the first few days of October,

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Speaker 2: we have gotten news today from President Biden that it

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Speaker 2: is up for discussion whether Israel is going to strike

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Speaker 2: Around's energy facilities, sending oil higher. As Charlie was just mentioning,

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Speaker 2: we've also got, of course, a dock worker strike that

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Speaker 2: is strangling ports along the East and Gulf Coast potentially

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Speaker 2: could have implications for consumer prices in addition to higher

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Speaker 2: oil prices. What else, Joe, of course, a hurricane we

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Speaker 2: were just speaking about with the congressman from North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: And then yesterday evening a new filing unsealed in the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty election subversion case against Donald Trump here in Washington.

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Speaker 5: Is that enough?

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Speaker 2: Am I missing any What?

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Speaker 1: Is it? The third of October?

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Speaker 8: Yes?

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Speaker 2: Okay, we're three days in.

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Speaker 3: Let's assemble the panel, because this is why we have

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Speaker 3: a panel. Jeanie Shanzano is back with us today, Democratic

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Speaker 3: analyst of course, Bloomberg politics contributor, political science professor at

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Speaker 3: Iona University, and Lisa Camusso Miller, republican strategist, former r

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Speaker 3: NC communications director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, Janie? We were asking until a

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Speaker 3: couple of days ago, what would be the oct Hober's surprise?

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Speaker 3: Seems like we've got three already and we're only three

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Speaker 3: days into the month. These are all stories that could

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Speaker 3: potentially impact the outcome of this election.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely, And I was just listening to you guys,

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Speaker 7: and it's exhausting to even listen to it.

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Speaker 4: And it's only the third.

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Speaker 7: So I guess we have to take bets on how

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Speaker 7: many more October surprises we get. You know, I don't

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Speaker 7: think we could take that many more, but I think

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Speaker 7: we'll get them.

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Speaker 4: These stories too, unfortunately.

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Speaker 7: For the Harris campaign, are for the most part, not

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Speaker 7: things that are going to necessarily assist them, And I

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Speaker 7: think the biggest challenge for them right now from a

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Speaker 7: campaign perspective is what's happening at the ports with that strike.

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Speaker 4: I think that can be really.

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Speaker 7: Damaging if it becomes an economic problem for the country.

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Speaker 4: Certainly will weigh down on the campaign.

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Speaker 7: Of course, you know, the question of what's going on

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Speaker 7: in the Middle East perennially impacts negatively administrations, and she's

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Speaker 7: tied to the administration.

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Speaker 4: And then of course the storm and.

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Speaker 7: Donald Trump just out today, even in the last few days,

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Speaker 7: hitting the administration and Kamala Harris on the response to

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Speaker 7: the storm, and in conservative media there is a lot

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Speaker 7: of that. So all of this fodder for the campaign

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Speaker 7: that they have to be a depth at addressing.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 2: And as we consider what they're going to have to

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Speaker 2: address here realistically at a time where we've seen Harris

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Speaker 2: gaining ground in polls when it comes to the economy, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: how easily can that be unwound if we suddenly see

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Speaker 2: a spike in prices at the pump, if people can't

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Speaker 2: are ordering ahead for Christmas or the holidays in early

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Speaker 2: November and they can't get the goods they want, or

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Speaker 2: it's going to take a long time to get them

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Speaker 2: because no cargo ships can come into East coast ports,

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Speaker 2: just how quickly could minds change.

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Speaker 10: Here, Kayleie, I think that this is the one issue

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Speaker 10: that they have got to be watching most closely because

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Speaker 10: it most directly affects the voter, and so it most

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Speaker 10: directly will affect how they feel about the way things

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Speaker 10: are unfolding. As this administration winds down, but understanding that

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Speaker 10: Kamala Harris is still very much tied to the administration,

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Speaker 10: so it's definitely of concern. The other thing to keep

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Speaker 10: an eye on not only just the cost of goods

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Speaker 10: and services, but if in fact things continue to get

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Speaker 10: and stay and even elevate, maybe even in the Middle East.

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Speaker 10: The cost of gas alone is one that very very

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Speaker 10: much affects the way people vote when it comes to

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Speaker 10: making decisions about politics.

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Speaker 2: Well, and so as we consider the foreign policy aspects

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Speaker 2: of all of this genie, we've been talking about how

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris has made a big deal about being in

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Speaker 2: the situation room as this has unfolded in the Middle

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Speaker 2: East in recent days, when Iron was sending missiles Israel's

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Speaker 2: way earlier this week. Do those domestic concerns outweigh the

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Speaker 2: optics of being able to look like someone who could

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Speaker 2: be commander in chief, be presidential as they're being vice presidential.

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Speaker 2: I just wonder if foreign policy can be still somewhat

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Speaker 2: of an advantage for her and less foreign policy is

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Speaker 2: causing problems for people at home.

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Speaker 7: It can, and one of the interesting things we've seen

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Speaker 7: in some of the latest polls is that voters give

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Speaker 7: her more credit than Donald Trump, even though he's a

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Speaker 7: former president, for her ability to be presidential, if you will,

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Speaker 7: And so those numbers have been positive for her. That said,

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Speaker 7: there's always a downside to these things. So should something

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Speaker 7: happen speaking of an October surprise that weighs negatively on

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Speaker 7: the administration in terms of handling what's going on in

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Speaker 7: the Middle East, or if we've switched to the other

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Speaker 7: hot war in Ukraine and Russia, that could of course

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Speaker 7: drag down the ticket as well. And one of the

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Speaker 7: knocks on Kamala Harris and quite frankly Tim Waltz is

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Speaker 7: that they don't have a good deal of foreign policy experience.

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Speaker 7: You know, this was something Barack Obama famously tried to

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Speaker 7: get ahead of with his choice of Joe Biden as

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Speaker 7: his running mate of Kamala went in another direction with

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Speaker 7: Tim Walton. That makes sense, but when foreign policy starts

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Speaker 7: to rise as an issue in voter's minds, that can

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Speaker 7: weigh down. So these are things they really have to

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Speaker 7: be thinking about as they move forward. But this is

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Speaker 7: the you know, there's a plus side to being an

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Speaker 7: office and in the administration. These are some of the

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Speaker 7: concerns that can weigh down on you.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's absolutely right. And so Lisa, is this the

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Speaker 3: moment where Kamala Harris needs to start separating herself from

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden on some of these issues or is she

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Speaker 3: handcuffed to this administration for the next five weeks.

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Speaker 10: I mean, there's no question about it. She's handcuffed, There's

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Speaker 10: no doubt about that. But yes, I think she can

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Speaker 10: show some some light between herself and perhaps the way

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Speaker 10: Joe Biden perceives these issues. The other thing too to

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Speaker 10: consider he is that historically Republicans have voted more favorably

440
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 10: towards Republicans. They definitely elected to elect Republicans at times

441
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,479
Speaker 10: of international distress, as we're seeing right now. And so

442
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 10: that's another consideration and why she really needs to show

443
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 10: some strong leadership and some strong voice and some strong

444
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 10: points of view in this area. Otherwise people are going

445
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 10: to regardless of whether or not she and Donald Trump

446
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 10: both only have four years of the same sort of

447
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 10: experience as it relates to being president and vice president

448
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 10: and dealing with foreign affairs, she will have to show

449
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 10: leadership and have to show strength because otherwise people will

450
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 10: say and ordinarily as history has shown, they will elect

451
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 10: to put Republicans in charge because they feel as if

452
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 10: that party is more well positioned in order to be

453
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 10: as strong for the country.

454
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: As we consider the state of the race here more broadly,

455
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 2: of course, Kamala Harris is in Wisconsin today or she

456
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 2: will be later on this afternoon with an interesting campaignmate,

457
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,959
Speaker 2: if you will, at her side, and former Republican Congresswoman

458
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 2: Liz Cheney, the daughter of or Vice President Liz Cheney,

459
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,560
Speaker 2: who as early or as recently as twenty twenty before

460
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 2: the actual election took place, was referring to Kamala Harris

461
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 2: as a radical liberal who would raise taxes, takeaway guns,

462
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 2: and health insurance. I'm reading directly from an ex post

463
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 2: of hers. It was Twitter. Then she says we won't

464
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,360
Speaker 2: give her the chance, and now she's trying to tell

465
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 2: voters in Wisconsin and elsewhere with her endorsement, they should

466
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: give Kamala Harris the chance. Lisa, is that going to

467
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: pass the smell test to voters who are undecided who

468
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris maybe trying to draw inside with the likes

469
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 2: of Liz Cheney.

470
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 9: I think so.

471
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 10: I mean, you know, Kaylee, I think your point is good,

472
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 10: and that is that previously Liz Chaney had very strong

473
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 10: opinions about Kamala Harris. But I think what we do

474
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 10: know to be true is that Liz Chaney very much

475
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 10: also has some strong opinions about Donald Trump, and her

476
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 10: point of view is that Donald Trump is not only

477
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 10: the right candidate or excuse me, the wrong candidate for

478
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,199
Speaker 10: the White House, he is one that would take the

479
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 10: country in the absolute wrong direction. So I think that

480
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 10: the voters will see this perhaps as an opportunity for

481
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,439
Speaker 10: the parties to come together and for there to be

482
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 10: some agreement from unlikely partners that were previously definitely not

483
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 10: in the same position as it relates to what's best

484
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 10: for the country.

485
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 3: It's certainly going to be the image of the day

486
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: in politics here, Genie. The optics are fascinating, but what

487
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 3: are voters supposed to think? Just to add on to

488
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: Kayley's question, when you consider the major issues, I realize

489
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 3: that they both can't stand Donald Trump and think that

490
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 3: he's a danger to democracy. But think about the economy, inflation,

491
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: the border, abortion. Liz Cheney wouldn't support any of Kamala

492
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 3: Harris's positions on these issues, but she's asking voters to

493
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 3: choose her anyway.

494
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean she's asking them to put I'm sure

495
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 7: we will hear the phrase put country over party, put

496
00:24:55,920 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 7: country over issues, put country over in democracy over everything else.

497
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 4: That's what we're going to be hearing.

498
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 7: And by the way, we're hearing that Democrats are going

499
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 7: to have Republican surrogates on the campaign trail for.

500
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:07,719
Speaker 4: The next four days.

501
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 7: And this is not without consequence because you do have

502
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 7: some Democrats who are opposed to this strategy. They say

503
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 7: Democrats should be doubling down on the base, not reaching out.

504
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 7: But Wisconsin, this fifty to fifty state, Democrats have decided

505
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 7: that in this case it makes sense because this will

506
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 7: work in a state like Wisconsin. So it is very

507
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 7: very targeted, but quite opposite of what we see on

508
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 7: the Republican side. Donald Trump doesn't like to reach out

509
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 7: a lot. He likes to double down on the base,

510
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,400
Speaker 7: and Democrats are doing something opposite.

511
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 4: And while I say.

512
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 7: That, I should just say we did see a little

513
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 7: reaching out because Milania Trump is out supporting their right

514
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 7: to choose, and Donald Trump is talking to women, so

515
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 7: a little bit of reaching out, but usually he is

516
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 7: doubling down on his base.

517
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 2: Well, and we saw a little bit of that present

518
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 2: on the vice presidential debate, state, didn't we, Lisa, when

519
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: jd Vance openly admitted that voters don't trust Republicans on

520
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 2: the issue of abortion and they need to do better

521
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 2: on that. Are we about to see a real difference

522
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: in their rhetoric around the reproductive rights issue in these

523
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 2: final weeks?

524
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 10: Well, yeah, it sure feels that way, Kayleie. I mean,

525
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,359
Speaker 10: the rhetoric alone on that issue has definitely shifted. And

526
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 10: it's got to be because they know that the campaign

527
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 10: knows that unless they soften their point of view and

528
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 10: soften the words that they're using in this space, they

529
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 10: are going to lose those swing voters who are not

530
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 10: with them, and so they've got to figure out a balance,

531
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 10: and that certainly was very much present on Tuesday night

532
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 10: during the vice presidential debate.

533
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: All Right, Lisa Camusa Miller and Jeanie Shanzeno our wonderful

534
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: political panel on this Thursday, Thank you both so much

535
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 2: for joining me. And of course it will be just

536
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: after the late edition of Balance of Power, Joe, that

537
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 2: we'll see Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney campaigning together in

538
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: the town, of course, where the Republican Party became.

539
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 9: That's right, the republic Party.

540
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,719
Speaker 3: The optics are curious in this case. We'll see how

541
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: powerful they are in the outcome.

542
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 5: Here.

543
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 3: You also wonder how some Republican voters might react to

544
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: this talk about never Trumper's and so forth. John Bolton

545
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 3: on CNN earlier says he's not writing in Dick Cheney

546
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 3: any longer for president because he endorsed Kamala Harris. He

547
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,479
Speaker 3: is now considering writing in Ronald Reagan.

548
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: It's still not voting for Donald.

549
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 3: That's correct, exactly.

550
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:29,119
Speaker 2: Okay, we'll have much more head here on a Balance

551
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 2: of Power as we look to the swing state of Georgia.

552
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 2: Andre Gillespie of Emory University will join us next here

553
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg.

554
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

555
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,479
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Emocarplay and then

556
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

557
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

558
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 3: If you're on the fastest show in politics. Thank you

559
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: for joining us on the Thursday edition of Balance of

560
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 3: Power Line. I've been Washington with our eyes today on Florida.

561
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 3: President Biden has just touched down following an aerial tour

562
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: of storm damage. Of course, coming off of Hurricane Helene.

563
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 3: Marine one was in the air for about forty five minutes,

564
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 3: according to the press pool, as the President had an

565
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 3: opportunity to see some of the damage at least from above,

566
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 3: exactly as he did yesterday in the Carolinas. If we

567
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 3: have a chance to see what the President is up

568
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: to right now, part of this trip brings him to

569
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 3: Florida for a briefing. He's hearing from authorities, state officials

570
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 3: who are dealing with this. If you're with us on

571
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, you see that map with

572
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: officials pointing to the Big bend of Florida, where Speaker

573
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: Mike Johnson is also touring today. Kaylee lines, the implications

574
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 3: here for the campaign are great. We saw Kamala Harris

575
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: also touring areas in Georgia just yesterday, yep.

576
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 2: And Georgia is where President Biden is also going to

577
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 2: be today. We saw Donald Trump in Georgia early this week.

578
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: He did get there days before the incumbent president and

579
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 2: vice president did to survey the damage. But it does

580
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 2: raise a lot of questions the timing of this. Obviously,

581
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 2: the humanitarian aspect and the trying the attempts to save

582
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: lives in places like North Carolina where there are still

583
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 2: many people unaccounted for, is everyone's priority. But this event

584
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 2: will have consequence as well beyond that, and of course,

585
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 2: considering it's timing so close to an election, we do

586
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 2: have to consider those as well.

587
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 3: Absolutely. Donald Trump put up a message earlier, by the way,

588
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 3: and I don't know if he's trying to comment on

589
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: the activities that are happening right now. He says, we'll

590
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: be going to North Carolina next week, date to be determined,

591
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 3: because I don't want to do anything that's going to

592
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 3: interrupt their rescue efforts. Again, knowing he was in Georgia

593
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 3: earlier this week. That's specifically why Joe Biden's been doing

594
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 3: these aerial.

595
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: Tours right well, and Donald Trump had criticized this administration

596
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 2: for not going to these effected areas sooner.

597
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: It's a little bit confusing.

598
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 5: I don't know.

599
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 3: Ivanka Trump, by the way, was in western North Carolina,

600
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 3: the real heart of the damage, yes, and he congratulates

601
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: her for doing a great job on that. So the

602
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 3: politics are alive and well here in the storm zone.

603
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and not just in terms of how it may

604
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 2: affect voter sentiment, but that is important, but also how

605
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 2: it could impact people's ability to go out and vote

606
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 2: at all. If we're talking about roadways that have been destroyed,

607
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 2: hard to get, for example, absentee ballots, two people, get

608
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 2: them out, get people to polling stations, given the length

609
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 2: of time it could take for everything to be normalized here.

610
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 2: So that's where we begin our conversation with Andre Gillespie,

611
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 2: who of course is with EMMRA University in Georgia, where

612
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 2: she is Associate professor of Political Science. Andre, thanks so

613
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: much for being here. We hope you and yours are

614
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: well and we're safe. While Hurricane Helene was carving its

615
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 2: path of destruction, which obviously was quite significant, how do

616
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 2: you ultimately see this impacting the election in a state

617
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 2: like Georgia, which is a critical battleground.

618
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 4: Well, thank you.

619
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 11: So it will affect people differently depending on the extent

620
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 11: of the damage. So people who were critically and adversely

621
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 11: affected by the storm are probably not thinking about turning

622
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,640
Speaker 11: out to vote. They're worried about other things. They're trying

623
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 11: to find their loved ones. They're trying to rebuild their lives.

624
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 11: The local elections officials in these areas are going to

625
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 11: try to do their level best to make sure that

626
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 11: people have access to voting facilities, that they have access

627
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:23,239
Speaker 11: to absentee ballots. But we do understand if people are

628
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 11: focused on other things. The tragedy here and which I

629
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 11: don't think will happen, would be if you can't hold

630
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 11: an election in certain parts of the United States because

631
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 11: of the storm, and if we look back to other

632
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 11: natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Katrina, we do know

633
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 11: that election officials do figure out ways to make sure

634
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 11: that everybody who wants to have access to the ballot

635
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 11: will have access to the ballot. So I'm confident that

636
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 11: you know that this will be taken care of as

637
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 11: a result of that. The larger question is the optics,

638
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 11: and so I think the things that you were mentioning

639
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 11: before that actually address issues related to you know, empathy

640
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,959
Speaker 11: and how presidential candidates show up in an area is

641
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 11: something that's very important. There are logistical reasons why a

642
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 11: sitting president and vice president may delay their entry into

643
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 11: a region to have a photo op after a natural disaster,

644
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 11: because they have larger security details, and that was the

645
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 11: stated reason why President Biden delayed going into the damage zone,

646
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 11: because he didn't want to be a distraction and actually

647
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 11: take away from people being able to engage in search

648
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 11: and rescue. That didn't stop Donald Trump from levying the criticism, though,

649
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,880
Speaker 11: as somebody who's been president before, this may be something

650
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 11: that he is quite familiar with. But by landing the punch,

651
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 11: by sort of trying to set the optical tone, he

652
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 11: was trying to say that the Democrats Kamala Harris included,

653
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,959
Speaker 11: are not empathetic, that they don't care about people like you,

654
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,680
Speaker 11: And so by showing up first, he's trying to stake

655
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 11: a particular claim that he cares about voters. I think

656
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 11: it becomes a question of whether or not that resonates.

657
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 11: And I think for you know, voters who are inclined

658
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 11: to support him, they're going to be inclined to agree

659
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 11: with this message. I think the bigger people are the

660
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,719
Speaker 11: low propensity voters, the people who don't always pay attention

661
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 11: to politics. Do they understand kind of the art of

662
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 11: the spin here, and would they actually be more susceptible

663
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 11: to those types of claims.

664
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 3: All great questions, I don't and is it more than

665
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 3: just a photo op. I mean, there are some folks

666
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: who say that people impacted by a disaster like this

667
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 3: actually take heart and seeing political leaders come by their

668
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 3: pay attention, maybe deliver some promises for help, or is

669
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 3: it just a self serving trip to get elected.

670
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 11: Empathy matters. That reflects on the president's character, and that

671
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 11: certainly is going to reflect on whether or not a

672
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 11: person wants to vote for somebody to be president of

673
00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 11: the United States. And so somebody who appears to be

674
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 11: uncaring or unfeeling is somebody who is not necessarily going

675
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 11: to be moved by any material aid. So it's really important.

676
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 11: And so there was no question that the presidential candidates

677
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 11: were going to show up in the disaster zone at

678
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 11: some point. The thing that we're arguing about here with

679
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 11: respect to the optics is the timing of it. And

680
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 11: so it could actually be quite empathetic and actually quelle

681
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 11: quite selfless to wait to show up in an area

682
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 11: if your presence would be a distraction from the very

683
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 11: real and necessary efforts that need to be made to

684
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 11: try to find people alive. But that won't necessarily stop

685
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,880
Speaker 11: your opponents from trying to spend. Then there's the material

686
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,360
Speaker 11: aspect of it, and so disaster declarations are important, and

687
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 11: so there have been empirical studies that look at disaster

688
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 11: declarations and how that relates to vote choice in subsequent elections.

689
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 11: And so if a president declares an area a disaster area,

690
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 11: that does actually have a positive impact on support for

691
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 11: that party, you know, us in you know, the election

692
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 11: that's immediately after, particularly for disasters that take place right

693
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 11: before a presidential election. And so there was no question

694
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 11: in my mind that Joe Biden was going to declare

695
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 11: the areas affected by Hurricane Helene natural disasters, not just

696
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 11: because they are clearly natural disasters, but because he's not

697
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 11: going to do anything to try to jeopardize his vice

698
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 11: president's chances of being able to succeed him as president.

699
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,399
Speaker 2: Obviously, Andra this storm is just one of the things

700
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 2: that have hit the news wires and physically hit the country,

701
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 2: of course, in the last week, as we consider other

702
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: news stories here the dock workers strike, what's going on

703
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 2: in the Middle East, and also what dropped yesterday one

704
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty five page filing by Special Counsel Jack Smith,

705
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 2: and the election subversion case here in Washington around the

706
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: twenty twenty election, in the events of January sixth of

707
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, but it goes into detail with what

708
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was doing in each of the individual battleground states,

709
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 2: including Georgia, where of course, he was also indicted in

710
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 2: a racketeering case related to his efforts to overturn the

711
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: results in that state. Knowing that trial is not going

712
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: to go forward before this election is over, it's unclear, frankly,

713
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 2: if it ever will. Does a filing like this reignite

714
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 2: in the minds of some Georgia voters happened in their

715
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: state what he argued happened in their state that did

716
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 2: not in twenty twenty and potentially have the power to

717
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 2: change minds.

718
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 11: Well, it certainly raises it to the top of the

719
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 11: news cycle, because this is something that had fallen off

720
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 11: the radar. But just because it's risen to the top

721
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 11: of the news cycle doesn't necessarily mean that it's changing

722
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,520
Speaker 11: people's minds about what they think. I think people's opinions

723
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 11: about the January sixth trial in federal court and the

724
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,800
Speaker 11: Georgia election interference case are probably pretty hardwired and baked

725
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 11: into the cake but this brings us up as a reminder,

726
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 11: and there are voters in Georgia who do actually care

727
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 11: about the health of democratic institutions. A recent poll by

728
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 11: the Atlanta Journal Constitution that was released in September indicated

729
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 11: that questions about democracy were among the top issues that

730
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 11: voters stated as their important reasons for voting in this election,

731
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 11: second only to questions about inflation. So democracy actually beats

732
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 11: it's a statistical tie, but in terms of absolute numbers,

733
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 11: it actually beat sort of questions about the economy, you know,

734
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 11: if we take if we disaggregate them as the AJC

735
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 11: did from inflation. So these are issues that are important.

736
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 11: This is certainly something that that people who are supportive

737
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 11: of Vice President Harris could point to as saying this

738
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 11: is a reason to participate in this election and a

739
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 11: reason to vote democratic. So I expect that people will

740
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 11: be doing this. But I think for the most part,

741
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 11: people's opinions about whether or not they think the prosecution

742
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 11: is justified or whether they think this is a politically

743
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 11: motivated which hunt we're baked into the cake A long

744
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 11: time ago.

745
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 3: Well, Professor the AJAC has another story today about Republicans

746
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 3: in Georgia who want to vote for Kamala Harris, and

747
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 3: I wonder your thought on this. We're talking about the

748
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 3: former Lieutenant Governor Jeff Duncan, not a surprise. Former Congressman

749
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 3: Joe Walsh of Illinois, not a surprise. If we're dealing

750
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:54,440
Speaker 3: with people Republicans tend to see or call rhinos for

751
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 3: lack of a better term, do they help the unlock

752
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 3: Republican votes for the Democrat I.

753
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 11: Don't think they're trying to unlock the Maga wing of

754
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,399
Speaker 11: the Republican Party in Georgia. You know, you might call

755
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 11: it the Marjorie Taylor Green wing of the party. Like

756
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:12,080
Speaker 11: those folks are unpersuadable. They are micro targeting a specific

757
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 11: subset of Georgia voters. So in the twenty twenty election,

758
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 11: more people cast a ballot for David Kemp and the

759
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 11: David Kemp John Ossoff Senate race than they did for

760
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 11: Donald Trump in the presidential race. They're looking at the

761
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 11: people who cast ballots for Brian Kemp but then couldn't

762
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 11: vote for herschel Walker in both the general and the

763
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 11: runoff election. And what they're looking for is a really

764
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 11: small margin. To remember, Georgia's margin in twenty twenty was

765
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 11: less than twelve thousand votes. They are looking at the

766
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 11: seventy seven thousand people who voted for Nicki Hayley in

767
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 11: the primaries. Only about twenty thousand of them are people

768
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 11: who had voted Democratic in the twenty twenty presidential primary.

769
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,240
Speaker 11: So they think that there may be this available pool

770
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 11: of more than fifty five thousand voters who could be

771
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 11: persuaded to vote for Harris or to skip the presidential

772
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 11: race in to vote down ballot, and that might be

773
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 11: the margin between winning or losing a state where we

774
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 11: expect that the margins are going to be small, whether

775
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 11: it's twelve thousand or one hundred and fifty thousand votes,

776
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 11: those votes could matter, and they actually dovetail with Harris's

777
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 11: national strategy. I mean, there's a Republicans for Kamala group,

778
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 11: there's an Evangelicals for Kamala group that's focusing on white evangelicals,

779
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 11: the group that's overwhelmingly Republican amongst evangelical Christians. So you

780
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 11: know this, you know is trying to leave no stone

781
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 11: on turn and to find every possible vote that could help.

782
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 2: Finally, Andre we did get some separate news out of

783
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,720
Speaker 2: Georgia today the state's Attorney general asking the Supreme Court

784
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 2: to reinstate the restrictive six week abortion ban that of

785
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 2: course was struck down by a judge in Fulton County

786
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 2: just earlier this week, which would make it go back

787
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,479
Speaker 2: up to twenty two weeks, through which the procedure would

788
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,760
Speaker 2: be allowed to what extent If this is indeed reput

789
00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 2: into place, this six week ban, will that change voter behavior?

790
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 2: As this is happening so close to election day?

791
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 11: So, you know, I think that for voters for whom

792
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 11: abortion is an issue, this is still going to be

793
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 11: an issue because it's tied to a larger national issue

794
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 11: about the overturning of Roe versus Weight in the Supreme

795
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 11: Court and about electing judges who you know might be

796
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 11: sensitive to abortion rights. It's not surprising that Attorney General

797
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 11: Chris Carr would actually try to stop this, And it

798
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 11: should be noted that the same judge overturned the ban

799
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 11: earlier and is now trying to make a state constitutional argument,

800
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 11: and so that sort of, you know, is precipitating Attorney

801
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 11: General cars filing in this case. And so you know,

802
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 11: I expect that this is going to go on appeal,

803
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 11: and I think most people are probably braced for the

804
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 11: fact that Judge mcburney's decision could easily be overturned on appeal.

805
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 3: Professor, it's great to have you back, Andre Gillespie, Professor

806
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 3: of political Science at Emory University.

807
00:40:56,719 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Just

808
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,760
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Ronoo

809
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business ad. You can also listen live

810
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

811
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 1: Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

812
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 3: I wanted to take a deeper dive on what we

813
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 3: learned in this brief. It's one hundred and sixty five pages.

814
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 3: I don't know if you had a chance to curl

815
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 3: up with it last night, but there are actually elements

816
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 3: that are new here to the story in the days

817
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 3: leading up to January sixth, and what happened inside the

818
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 3: White House on that day, the former president's conversations with

819
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 3: his advisors, in many cases acknowledging the fact that some

820
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 3: of the ideas being floated here about fake electors and

821
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 3: you know, space lasers getting into voting machines, and some

822
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 3: of this was crazy, as he made clear. But the

823
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 3: point of it again is to get to the personal

824
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 3: motivation and skirt the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity.

825
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 3: So for help on this, we needed to talk to

826
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:02,560
Speaker 3: Robert mcwurder. I'll tell you what, it's been a long

827
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 3: time since we've talked to Robert mcwader, criminal and constitutional

828
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 3: law attorney who was a daily feature on this program

829
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 3: when Donald Trump was in court every day. Robert, I

830
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 3: started thinking the other day, I hope somebody sues someone

831
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 3: so I can talk to mister mcwerder. It's great to

832
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 3: see you. Welcome back here. We are you know this

833
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: case as well as anybody, having spent a lot of

834
00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 3: time talking about it. When we thought there might be

835
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 3: a trial before the election. We should remind our viewers

836
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: and listeners there's not going to be one. But this

837
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,479
Speaker 3: does give us a sense, doesn't it about how Jack

838
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 3: Smith would try to prosecute this case.

839
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 9: Oh? Yes, Jack Smith is a good lawyer. He lays

840
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 9: out his case very well, and as you said, there's

841
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 9: facts that we haven't heard, and we can also glean

842
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,439
Speaker 9: it's somewhat speculation, but you can kind of tell who

843
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 9: the people are who are turning around a pointing the

844
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 9: finger back at Donald Trump.

845
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 3: What jumps out to you here that would actually make

846
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 3: a difference in court. He's actually gone back to the

847
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 3: drawing board to make it clear that Donald Trump was

848
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 3: being motivated personally here. He funded, specifically the January sixth

849
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 3: speech on the Ellipse, funded and organized by private individuals.

850
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 3: Donald Trump promoted it on his campaign account. The speech delivered,

851
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 3: it says, was a campaign rally. Is that what matters?

852
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 8: Oh?

853
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 9: Yes, because these conversations with specific staffers show Donald Trump's

854
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 9: mental intent. There's a lot of actions you can do

855
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 9: that could be subject to multiple interpretations. But if you

856
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 9: have somebody who says, oh, yeah, he said I'm going

857
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 9: in that bank to robit, for instance, well that establishes

858
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 9: that there's intent to rob a bank. Donald Trump very

859
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 9: clearly says, in front of staffers who are now turning

860
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 9: against him and family members that he's doing this. He

861
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 9: knew perfectly well he lost. He still knows he lost

862
00:43:52,800 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty, but he's doing it just to keep

863
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 9: fighting and helping his own interests at the expense of

864
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 9: American Democa, showing.

865
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 3: In trial that Donald Trump and his allies often made

866
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 3: up statistics that were cut from whole cloth. As a

867
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 3: quote from the report here alleging thirty six thousand non

868
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 3: citizens cast ballots in Arizona, changing it to a few

869
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 3: hundred thousand, eventually revising it back to forty or fifty thousand,

870
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 3: then to thirty two thousand, and backup to the original

871
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:33,320
Speaker 3: thirty six thousand. Instances like this bring up the credibility issue. Obviously,

872
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 3: does it matter in court? Oh?

873
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 9: Yes, most certainly does. And it's interesting how those numbers

874
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 9: fluctuate based on what Donald Trump thinks he needs to

875
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 9: change the result in a given election. Oh, we don't

876
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 9: need a full forty thousand. Let's just go with thirty six.

877
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 9: It's just stuff made out of whole cloth. You know,

878
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 9: what's going on here is just fascinating. Jack Smith filed

879
00:44:55,920 --> 00:45:00,400
Speaker 9: this motion. Usually what happens in a criminal case, execution

880
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 9: presents the indictment. These are the charges, and then the

881
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 9: defense files motions. Jack Smith decided to file the motion

882
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 9: kind of preemptively because the US Supreme Court said the

883
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 9: president has immunity for official official acts, but did not

884
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 9: define what is an official act. So Jack Smith came

885
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 9: in and said, look, these are not official acts, and

886
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 9: therefore they are subject to prosecution. And I'll go a

887
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,320
Speaker 9: bit further. He had a real clever kind of answer

888
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 9: to how you decide in this context. We've all heard

889
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,919
Speaker 9: of the Hatch Act. The Hatch Act says that while

890
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 9: you're a public official on the public dying, you can't

891
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 9: be campaigned. So what people do in campaigns and public

892
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 9: offices they put on their campaign hat, which is pride

893
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 9: a time, and then they put on their government hat,

894
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,960
Speaker 9: which is subject to the Hatch Act, which means they

895
00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 9: can't campaign for a candidate. Now, the problem has always

896
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 9: been the blurring of those two, but those are the standards, right. Well,

897
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 9: what Jack Smith has done is said, look, the standard

898
00:45:59,560 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 9: for den what's an official act. You can use the

899
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 9: Hatch Act as an example. So whenever these people are

900
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 9: running around not doing their official government business, but are

901
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 9: doing things to perpetuate their candidate, Donald Trump, this is

902
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 9: clearly not an official act of the president. And what

903
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 9: he's basically done is given the Supreme Court a benchmark

904
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 9: for deciding these issues. Whether this Supreme Court will take

905
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,160
Speaker 9: it or not as an open question, but he's given

906
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 9: to judge this benchmark, and that I find a legal

907
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 9: very interesting legal move which gives a standard well, and

908
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 9: I do not think Trump will do very well under

909
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 9: that standard.

910
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:41,040
Speaker 3: I think it's fascinating as a person who asks politicians

911
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 3: elected officials questions for a living and frequently has the

912
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 3: Hatch Act cited back to me for where they cannot

913
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 3: answer that question. But I'm going to add another layer

914
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 3: to this, getting to what you're talking about here, the

915
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 3: events of what happened, the events of January fourth, twenty

916
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,839
Speaker 3: twenty one. This is two days before, of course, the

917
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 3: attack on the Capitol. In the rally that we're talking

918
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: about here, a meeting that Donald Trump held with his

919
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 3: legal representatives, he asked pat Sippolini to leave the room, right,

920
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: so the official government lawyer to leave the room so

921
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 3: he could stay talking with John Eastman. Sippolini would not

922
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: discuss that moment when he was asked about it by Congress.

923
00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 3: But it gets to the heart of this matter, doesn't it.

924
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 9: Well, Yeah, because Sippolini says, look, I've still got my

925
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 9: Hatch Act on my hat. In other words, he's saying, look,

926
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 9: I can't do this government. I'm gonna leave. Then he's

927
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 9: left with Eastman, who clearly is just working for Donald

928
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:43,720
Speaker 9: Trump in the campaign, and those conversations are in should

929
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 9: in no way be protected by presidential IMMUNI. Look, there's

930
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 9: a little gray here here, and I'll give you a

931
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 9: historic example. During the late eighteen hundreds, after the Civil War,

932
00:47:56,880 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 9: Ulysses Grant was very concerned with the way the Khlukuks

933
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 9: Klan was suppressing the Black vote and murdering people in

934
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 9: the South, and he had official conversations under his duties

935
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 9: of the fourteenth and fifteenth Amendments to suppress that, to

936
00:48:11,840 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 9: stop that. He was stopping essentially the voter fraud and

937
00:48:16,520 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 9: manipulation that was perpetuated by the Klan. Now that is

938
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 9: clearly an official act in the subject of voter registration, etc.

939
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 9: That is an official act of the President Donald Trump.

940
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:33,319
Speaker 9: Unlike President Grant, Donald Trump is not doing that. In fact,

941
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 9: he's doing the exact opposite. He's just doing it to

942
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,320
Speaker 9: perpetuate himself. Now, Ulysses Grant would have received a benefit

943
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:43,280
Speaker 9: as a Republican supporting the black vote at that time,

944
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:47,080
Speaker 9: because the Black vote were overwhelming the support of Republican

945
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 9: Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses brand But that was an

946
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 9: official act. What Donald Trump did is clearly different, and

947
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 9: that's somehow historically how you can tell the distinction on

948
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,319
Speaker 9: this of what our presidents should or should not do.

949
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 5: Got it.

950
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 3: This is why we call Robert macwerder because he boils

951
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 3: it down in such an effective way. Criminal and constitutional

952
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:11,919
Speaker 3: law attorney Robert is great to see you stay close

953
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 3: with us as we learn more about where this is heading. Yeah,

954
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 3: producer James says, it's time for the Hatch Act hats

955
00:49:18,320 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 3: to get on the BOP website. We'll work on it

956
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 3: right here on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance

957
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:31,080
Speaker 3: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

958
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

959
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 3: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

960
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 3: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.