1 00:00:15,450 --> 00:00:26,270 Speaker 1: Pushkin. This cautionary tale is based, with permission, on David 2 00:00:26,500 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: Epstein's book Inside the Box, How Constraints Make Us Better. 3 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,900 Speaker 1: Let's start with the idea, and the man whose idea 4 00:00:37,980 --> 00:00:43,180 Speaker 1: it was. His name was Mark Peratt. Peratt was a 5 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: man with a vision of a technology so powerful it 6 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,830 Speaker 1: would catalyse a new age of civilisation. That doesn't happen often. 7 00:00:52,590 --> 00:00:55,810 Speaker 1: Thousands of years ago, the plough was a technology that 8 00:00:56,050 --> 00:01:01,570 Speaker 1: unleashed the agricultural age. In the 1760s, the first practical 9 00:01:01,710 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: steam engine started the industrial age. And what comes next? 10 00:01:07,980 --> 00:01:12,330 Speaker 1: The information age, of course. We know that now. Half 11 00:01:12,350 --> 00:01:17,300 Speaker 1: a century ago, it wasn't so obvious. But Mark Peratt 12 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:23,340 Speaker 1: saw it back in 1976 in his doctoral research. Here 13 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: he is a few years later, presenting his own primetime 14 00:01:27,580 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: PBS documentary. It's called The Information Society. 15 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,260 Speaker 2: Today, many people believe that information tools are the third 16 00:01:37,300 --> 00:01:42,210 Speaker 2: technology to change the course of civilisations. changing our relationship 17 00:01:42,250 --> 00:01:46,350 Speaker 2: to nature, to each other, to the very way we 18 00:01:46,390 --> 00:01:52,090 Speaker 2: experience reality. Of all the information tools, the computer is 19 00:01:52,130 --> 00:01:53,350 Speaker 2: probably the most powerful. 20 00:01:55,550 --> 00:02:00,340 Speaker 1: That was 1980. The information age was just getting started. 21 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 1: Where would it go? What would people do as computers 22 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:10,380 Speaker 1: became more and more powerful, more and more ubiquitous? Mark 23 00:02:10,460 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: Peratt knew. His doctoral dissertation coined the phrase the information economy. 24 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:22,290 Speaker 1: But Peratt was more than just an analyst of long-term 25 00:02:22,450 --> 00:02:29,490 Speaker 1: macroeconomic trends. He was a charismatic, visionary speaker. One colleague said, 26 00:02:30,570 --> 00:02:34,330 Speaker 1: the thing about Peratt when he speaks is he Everybody 27 00:02:34,370 --> 00:02:37,450 Speaker 1: in the audience says to themselves two things. They say, 28 00:02:37,990 --> 00:02:40,630 Speaker 1: my God, this guy's right. I can go to the 29 00:02:40,710 --> 00:02:43,820 Speaker 1: roof of this building and if I jump, I will fly. 30 00:02:45,220 --> 00:02:49,580 Speaker 1: There are risks to listening to charismatic speakers. And the 31 00:02:49,620 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: other thing? The second thing they would think is, and 32 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,300 Speaker 1: that guy up there on the stage and me, we're 33 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 1: the only two guys who really get it. In the 34 00:03:02,860 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 1: late 1980s, after a few years as a freewheeling big thinker, 35 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: Mark Peratt joined the Advanced Technology Group at Apple Computer. 36 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,620 Speaker 1: His job was to think about what kinds of products 37 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: the information society would need. Computers, yes, of course, but 38 00:03:22,780 --> 00:03:27,650 Speaker 1: not just desktop machines. In a big red notebook, Peratt 39 00:03:27,730 --> 00:03:32,430 Speaker 1: described what he saw as the information and communication product 40 00:03:32,910 --> 00:03:37,870 Speaker 1: of the future. It must offer the kind of personal 41 00:03:37,970 --> 00:03:43,180 Speaker 1: satisfaction that a fine piece of jewellery brings. It will 42 00:03:43,220 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: have a perceived value, even when it's not being used. 43 00:03:48,220 --> 00:03:52,750 Speaker 1: It should offer the comfort of a touchstone, the tactile 44 00:03:52,810 --> 00:04:01,910 Speaker 1: satisfaction of a seashell, the enchantment of a crystal. That product? 45 00:04:02,890 --> 00:04:06,510 Speaker 1: His big red book contains a sketch. It's a slim, 46 00:04:06,790 --> 00:04:12,170 Speaker 1: glazed rectangle. No buttons, just a touchscreen. And its functions? 47 00:04:13,230 --> 00:04:17,940 Speaker 1: A phone, a messaging device, a portable television, a portable 48 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,220 Speaker 1: games console. You could even use it to book a 49 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 1: plane ticket. It was 1989. Most mobile phones were the 50 00:04:28,140 --> 00:04:34,020 Speaker 1: size of bricks. Apple's new portable computer weighed 16 pounds. 51 00:04:34,780 --> 00:04:39,570 Speaker 1: There was no World Wide Web. And Mark Peratt had 52 00:04:39,710 --> 00:04:46,700 Speaker 1: just imagined the iPhone. I'm Tim Harford, and you're listening 53 00:04:47,300 --> 00:05:17,210 Speaker 1: to Cautionary Tales. Peratt called his idea the pocket crystal. 54 00:05:18,070 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: He imagined that people would carry them everywhere. It would 55 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: be small, intimate, like jewellery. You'd wear it all the time, 56 00:05:27,580 --> 00:05:30,980 Speaker 1: he explained. And if there was a fire in your house, 57 00:05:31,020 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: you'd think, family goes first, and then I grab my 58 00:05:34,660 --> 00:05:40,350 Speaker 1: pocket crystal. Peratt wasn't just a visionary. He was an evangelist, 59 00:05:40,450 --> 00:05:43,500 Speaker 1: and a brilliant one at that. He showed his idea 60 00:05:43,540 --> 00:05:48,060 Speaker 1: to a colleague called Bill Atkinson. Atkinson called his friend 61 00:05:48,380 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 1: Andy Hertzfeld. He was beyond excited. You've got to see 62 00:05:53,210 --> 00:05:56,210 Speaker 1: this new thing. It's the next thing. You've got to 63 00:05:56,230 --> 00:06:01,290 Speaker 1: meet with this guy Mark. Andy was convinced too. Bill 64 00:06:01,370 --> 00:06:06,330 Speaker 1: Atkinson and Andy Hertzfeld were legendary figures in Silicon Valley. 65 00:06:07,010 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: And they weren't big picture future trends people like Peratt. 66 00:06:11,530 --> 00:06:16,340 Speaker 1: They were technically brilliant programmers. They were both central in 67 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:20,560 Speaker 1: the design and operating system of the original Apple Macintosh, 68 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:26,540 Speaker 1: one of the most influential computers ever made. Have you 69 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,420 Speaker 1: ever used a drop-down menu on a computer? A hyperlink? 70 00:06:31,460 --> 00:06:38,620 Speaker 1: Double-clicked on a mouse? That's the work of Atkinson and Hertzfeld. Peratt, 71 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,980 Speaker 1: Atkinson and Hertzfeld were convinced that the pocket crystal was 72 00:06:43,020 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 1: the future of personal computing. So up to a point 73 00:06:47,740 --> 00:06:51,860 Speaker 1: was the boss of Apple, John Scully. But this idea 74 00:06:51,950 --> 00:06:55,770 Speaker 1: was too big for Apple, a company which made stylish 75 00:06:55,930 --> 00:07:02,230 Speaker 1: personal computers, not phones. It would require new hardware, new 76 00:07:02,310 --> 00:07:07,010 Speaker 1: software and new partnerships. Phone companies would need to be involved. 77 00:07:07,770 --> 00:07:13,780 Speaker 1: so would businesses which specialised in portable electronics. So in 1990, 78 00:07:13,770 --> 00:07:16,170 Speaker 1: it was agreed that the Pocket Crystal would need to 79 00:07:16,210 --> 00:07:21,100 Speaker 1: be developed by a new company, a spin-off. Peratt, Atkinson 80 00:07:21,140 --> 00:07:24,900 Speaker 1: and Hertzfeld would run it. Apple would provide some funding, 81 00:07:25,340 --> 00:07:28,940 Speaker 1: and Scully would sit on the board. But this bold 82 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: young company would be able to forge partnerships with other 83 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:37,190 Speaker 1: huge players in the electronics and the telecommunications industry. And 84 00:07:37,210 --> 00:07:43,730 Speaker 1: it would be called... What would it be called? Arthur C. Clarke, 85 00:07:44,380 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 1: the influential science fiction writer, had once said that any 86 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:55,150 Speaker 1: sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. That was the 87 00:07:55,190 --> 00:08:04,870 Speaker 1: name then. General Magic. As David Epstein explains in his 88 00:08:04,970 --> 00:08:09,990 Speaker 1: new book, Inside the Box, general magic took off fast. 89 00:08:10,690 --> 00:08:16,310 Speaker 1: Here's David's description. Scully introduced the founding trio to Sony. 90 00:08:17,150 --> 00:08:20,020 Speaker 1: They made their pitch, and within days, Sony was on 91 00:08:20,090 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: board with a stake and a licensing deal. Next came Motorola, 92 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:30,300 Speaker 1: and then AT & T. Philips was next. And then 93 00:08:30,460 --> 00:08:35,830 Speaker 1: Sony's bitter rival, Panasonic. then Toshiba, then France Telecom, and 94 00:08:36,130 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: on and on. Everyone in the communications industry wanted a 95 00:08:41,420 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: piece of general magic, so much so they needed an 96 00:08:45,180 --> 00:08:48,860 Speaker 1: antitrust lawyer in their meetings to make sure their discussions 97 00:08:48,900 --> 00:08:53,420 Speaker 1: weren't falling foul of competition law. It was, says Epstein, 98 00:08:53,980 --> 00:08:58,430 Speaker 1: the biggest consortium of global companies that had ever existed 99 00:08:58,690 --> 00:09:05,100 Speaker 1: in American business. Each partner in the alliance put in 100 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: millions of dollars. General Magic was swimming in money, but 101 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:14,380 Speaker 1: still felt they needed more. It's not cheap to invent 102 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: the future, after all. Peratt and the team decided they 103 00:09:18,500 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: would raise money from regular investors by giving them the 104 00:09:21,740 --> 00:09:26,290 Speaker 1: chance to buy shares in General Magic, pouring more cash 105 00:09:26,350 --> 00:09:29,470 Speaker 1: into the company in exchange for a slice of any 106 00:09:29,590 --> 00:09:34,810 Speaker 1: future profits. It's not unusual to seek money from regular 107 00:09:34,870 --> 00:09:40,270 Speaker 1: mom-and-pop investors, but this case was unprecedented, because not only 108 00:09:40,310 --> 00:09:44,060 Speaker 1: did General Magic not have any profits, they didn't even 109 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:48,780 Speaker 1: have any revenues. In fact, they didn't even have a product. 110 00:09:49,940 --> 00:09:54,940 Speaker 1: They just had an idea. Could you really sell tens 111 00:09:55,100 --> 00:09:58,150 Speaker 1: of millions of dollars of shares to the general public 112 00:09:58,570 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: just on the basis of an idea? You could, if 113 00:10:02,940 --> 00:10:06,750 Speaker 1: it was a good enough idea. Wall Street loved it. 114 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:11,010 Speaker 1: Investment bankers from the likes of... of Goldman Sachs elbowed 115 00:10:11,050 --> 00:10:14,150 Speaker 1: each other aside for a piece of the action. In 116 00:10:14,190 --> 00:10:19,570 Speaker 1: the documentary film General Magic, Mark Peratt remembers them queuing 117 00:10:19,670 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: up to pitch. One of them said, what would it take? 118 00:10:24,260 --> 00:10:26,140 Speaker 1: If I gave you the shirt off my back, would 119 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,810 Speaker 1: that do it? And I said... Yeah, it would. And 120 00:10:30,830 --> 00:10:33,750 Speaker 1: he stripped down, and there we were, standing in the 121 00:10:33,830 --> 00:10:37,180 Speaker 1: conference room with a half-naked banker. He got the deal. 122 00:10:38,900 --> 00:10:42,460 Speaker 1: After launching General Magic shares on the stock market, the 123 00:10:42,500 --> 00:10:47,660 Speaker 1: share price promptly doubled. General Magic had all the money 124 00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:55,850 Speaker 1: it could possibly want. Money is useful, of course. But 125 00:10:55,870 --> 00:11:00,540 Speaker 1: you also need talent. General Magic had a charismatic leader 126 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:03,740 Speaker 1: in the form of Mark Peratt, a man who could 127 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,570 Speaker 1: persuade you and the half-naked investment banker standing next to 128 00:11:07,650 --> 00:11:10,970 Speaker 1: you that if you flapped your arms, you could fly. 129 00:11:12,570 --> 00:11:16,390 Speaker 1: The company also had Andy Hertzfeld and Bill Atkinson, the 130 00:11:16,490 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 1: rock star programmers who gave the world the Apple Macintosh. Fine, 131 00:11:21,700 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: who else? Joanna Hoffman. She'd been in charge of marketing 132 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:31,310 Speaker 1: the Mac. Susan Cain. She had done the graphics. And 133 00:11:31,370 --> 00:11:35,210 Speaker 1: just as important, all the ambitious young guns who so 134 00:11:35,290 --> 00:11:40,330 Speaker 1: admired Hertzfeld and Atkinson and Hoffman and Cain, young software 135 00:11:40,390 --> 00:11:43,910 Speaker 1: and hardware engineers desperate to make a dent in the universe. 136 00:11:44,670 --> 00:11:48,810 Speaker 1: They'd camp outside General Magic's offices. They'd call every day 137 00:11:48,890 --> 00:11:52,610 Speaker 1: to beg for a job. General Magic had their pick. 138 00:11:53,190 --> 00:12:00,570 Speaker 1: The best of the best. Money. Talent. everything. Which raises 139 00:12:00,610 --> 00:12:05,590 Speaker 1: the question, why has nobody ever heard of General Magic? 140 00:12:08,250 --> 00:12:18,270 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales will be back after the break. While the 141 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:22,540 Speaker 1: world's great investment banks were backing General Magic, and the 142 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: world's great technology companies were scrambling to be part of 143 00:12:25,980 --> 00:12:29,880 Speaker 1: the alliance, the young team of programmers under Bill Atkinson 144 00:12:29,940 --> 00:12:36,010 Speaker 1: and Andy Hertzfeld had been busy. Very busy. Busy making what? 145 00:12:37,290 --> 00:12:42,370 Speaker 1: Wonderful things. Things that astonished the alliance members who'd invested 146 00:12:42,410 --> 00:12:46,860 Speaker 1: in them. For example, when a couple of General Magic's 147 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:50,860 Speaker 1: young engineers flew out to Japan to show Mitsubishi a 148 00:12:50,980 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 1: hardware prototype, Their hosts abruptly halted the meeting to call 149 00:12:56,060 --> 00:13:01,980 Speaker 1: in more employees, all dressed in factory overalls. Apologising, the 150 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,170 Speaker 1: host asked the General Magic team to start again with 151 00:13:05,190 --> 00:13:10,930 Speaker 1: the demo, from the beginning. So they did. Well, this 152 00:13:11,010 --> 00:13:14,450 Speaker 1: is where there's no modem, because we've done it entirely 153 00:13:14,510 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: in software. No modem? Just software? Incredible technology. There's a 154 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:28,550 Speaker 1: moan from the audience. One man, a manager called Mr Kato, 155 00:13:29,190 --> 00:13:34,590 Speaker 1: slumps forward and strikes his head against the desk. The 156 00:13:34,630 --> 00:13:41,820 Speaker 1: host apologises again. You have just obsoleted Kato-san's division. Like 157 00:13:41,890 --> 00:13:48,260 Speaker 1: I say, wonderful things. What else were General Magic obsoleting? 158 00:13:49,740 --> 00:13:54,890 Speaker 1: The answering machine for one. General Magic's operating system included 159 00:13:54,910 --> 00:14:01,350 Speaker 1: a digital voicemail feature. Arcade machines. General Magic were writing games, 160 00:14:01,650 --> 00:14:03,590 Speaker 1: in case you got bored while sitting in the back 161 00:14:03,610 --> 00:14:06,510 Speaker 1: of a cab or waiting for an appointment. You could 162 00:14:06,560 --> 00:14:11,900 Speaker 1: just pull out your Pocket Crystal and play a game. Books, too. 163 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: There was a virtual library stocked with e-books. The keyboard 164 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: and mouse. What a drag. Pocket Crystal had a touchscreen. 165 00:14:22,180 --> 00:14:25,540 Speaker 1: No need for a mouse. The keyboard was virtual, just 166 00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:29,220 Speaker 1: displayed on the touchscreen by the software. But the Pocket 167 00:14:29,260 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: Crystal wasn't just obsoleting existing electronic technology. It was creating 168 00:14:35,070 --> 00:14:39,950 Speaker 1: something completely new. The General Magic team developed a new 169 00:14:40,030 --> 00:14:45,570 Speaker 1: kind of interconnecting cable, the precursor to today's USB. They 170 00:14:45,610 --> 00:14:50,460 Speaker 1: developed a new programming language, Telescript. to allow portable devices 171 00:14:50,500 --> 00:14:52,850 Speaker 1: to talk to each other and to a network, you know, 172 00:14:53,050 --> 00:14:58,690 Speaker 1: for social media or e-commerce. Not that anyone used those 173 00:14:58,770 --> 00:15:02,630 Speaker 1: terms yet. A reminder that this is all happening in 174 00:15:02,670 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: the early 1990s, about 15 years before the iPhone and Facebook. 175 00:15:12,740 --> 00:15:19,540 Speaker 1: They called their portable network the cloud. The crystal's touchscreen 176 00:15:19,620 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 1: was filled with skeuomorphic graphics. These are icons that visually 177 00:15:24,930 --> 00:15:28,450 Speaker 1: represent a function. Click on a manila folder to see 178 00:15:28,470 --> 00:15:31,690 Speaker 1: your files, or a floppy disk to save your work. 179 00:15:32,810 --> 00:15:37,150 Speaker 1: That idea existed, but General Magic took it in new directions. 180 00:15:37,850 --> 00:15:40,730 Speaker 1: Click on the phone to make a call, on the 181 00:15:40,830 --> 00:15:46,010 Speaker 1: inbox to check messages, or the calendar, the notepad, the Rolodex. 182 00:15:46,210 --> 00:15:49,090 Speaker 1: You get the idea. Click on the door icon to 183 00:15:49,110 --> 00:15:52,270 Speaker 1: go out on the virtual street. That's where the e-book 184 00:15:52,330 --> 00:15:56,220 Speaker 1: library is. There's also a store where you can buy apps. 185 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,700 Speaker 1: They didn't call it an app store, but I'll say 186 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:05,340 Speaker 1: it again. A store where you can buy apps. General 187 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:11,500 Speaker 1: Magic really was inventing the future. So why did General 188 00:16:11,570 --> 00:16:18,050 Speaker 1: Magic fail? There was, I think... a deep and tragic 189 00:16:18,150 --> 00:16:22,710 Speaker 1: flaw in the way General Magic operated. Before we get 190 00:16:22,770 --> 00:16:26,710 Speaker 1: to it, we need to describe the symptom. General Magic, 191 00:16:27,090 --> 00:16:30,450 Speaker 1: for all the money and talent and influence it had, 192 00:16:31,070 --> 00:16:36,020 Speaker 1: made products that were late, expensive, and didn't deliver on 193 00:16:36,100 --> 00:16:41,220 Speaker 1: those early promises. The first device to appear running General 194 00:16:41,260 --> 00:16:47,850 Speaker 1: Magic's revolutionary operating system was Sony's Magic Link in 1994. 195 00:16:47,850 --> 00:16:52,970 Speaker 1: Behind all those fancy skeuomorphic graphics, it was complicated to use, 196 00:16:53,430 --> 00:16:57,370 Speaker 1: with a 200-page manual. It was about the size of 197 00:16:57,410 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: a hardback book, with a greyscale monochrome touchscreen about the 198 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 1: size of a postcard. It ran on old-fashioned AA batteries, 199 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:12,320 Speaker 1: and it drained them mercilessly. In a world before Wi-Fi 200 00:17:12,360 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: and Bluetooth, the device instead had an old-fashioned telephone jack. 201 00:17:17,820 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 1: To send a message, you needed to sit at your 202 00:17:20,020 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: office desk and plug the device into a telephone cable. Oh, 203 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,740 Speaker 1: and you had to do that to make calls, too. 204 00:17:26,860 --> 00:17:30,900 Speaker 1: It didn't even have a built-in cell phone. It would 205 00:17:30,940 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: be unfair to say that the Magic Link was a 206 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: terrible product. The graphics were charming, the sound effects pleasing, 207 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,380 Speaker 1: the touchscreen interface was ahead of its time. But fundamentally, 208 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: it was a lot of money. About $ 1, 600 in today's 209 00:17:46,860 --> 00:17:51,130 Speaker 1: money for not a lot of functionality. The only people 210 00:17:51,150 --> 00:17:54,650 Speaker 1: who bought it were the friends and family of general magicians. 211 00:17:55,710 --> 00:18:02,410 Speaker 1: Sony sold 3,000 units in the first six months. Years later, 212 00:18:03,090 --> 00:18:07,970 Speaker 1: Apple would sell about 300,000 iPhones on the first day. 213 00:18:09,250 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: The next year, 1995, another alliance member, Motorola, released a 214 00:18:14,380 --> 00:18:20,880 Speaker 1: better General Magic product. The Envoy did have wireless communication. Unfortunately, 215 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: it was also almost twice the price of the Magic Link. 216 00:18:25,740 --> 00:18:29,980 Speaker 1: With flagship products like that, It's no surprise that General 217 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:35,300 Speaker 1: Magic started to struggle. But then, why was the product 218 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:41,290 Speaker 1: so underwhelming? There are a few explanations, so let's explore them. 219 00:18:42,030 --> 00:18:49,630 Speaker 1: I think the truth is surprising. General Magic were so 220 00:18:49,830 --> 00:18:54,110 Speaker 1: focused on building their new cloud network that they failed 221 00:18:54,150 --> 00:18:56,490 Speaker 1: to adapt to the rise of the World Wide Web. 222 00:18:57,630 --> 00:19:00,890 Speaker 1: One of General Magic's developers remembers, we had an intern 223 00:19:00,910 --> 00:19:03,830 Speaker 1: who's like, hey everybody, it's all about the web, you 224 00:19:03,870 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: guys are totally missing it. There was a tech support 225 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: engineer at General Magic called Pierre, who'd set up a 226 00:19:10,900 --> 00:19:13,460 Speaker 1: web page as a side hustle. It was a sort 227 00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:17,220 Speaker 1: of online garage sale. You'd list stuff that you had 228 00:19:17,260 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: lying around that you didn't want anymore, and other people 229 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 1: would see that stuff and bid for it. Pierre called 230 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,540 Speaker 1: his website AuctionWeb, He'd show it to his colleagues. He 231 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,700 Speaker 1: asked them for help. Maybe he could set up a company, 232 00:19:32,260 --> 00:19:35,920 Speaker 1: spin it out from General Magic. Maybe General Magic would 233 00:19:35,940 --> 00:19:40,890 Speaker 1: like to invest in it. One colleague's response was pretty typical. 234 00:19:41,570 --> 00:19:44,930 Speaker 1: This is the dumbest idea I've ever heard. You're going 235 00:19:44,950 --> 00:19:47,570 Speaker 1: to get strangers to trust each other on the internet? 236 00:19:48,030 --> 00:19:52,460 Speaker 1: Lots of luck. We're not interested. Have fun. Pierre was 237 00:19:52,500 --> 00:19:55,710 Speaker 1: a very quiet guy with a very silly seeming idea. 238 00:19:56,020 --> 00:20:00,070 Speaker 1: But the idea wasn't silly. It was eBay. And it 239 00:20:00,110 --> 00:20:06,190 Speaker 1: made Pierre Omidyar a multi-billionaire. Of course, General Magic knew 240 00:20:06,290 --> 00:20:08,990 Speaker 1: about the World Wide Web, but they could easily come 241 00:20:09,030 --> 00:20:12,350 Speaker 1: up with excuses to ignore it. they were in partnership 242 00:20:12,450 --> 00:20:16,030 Speaker 1: with the phone company AT & T, which was developing 243 00:20:16,090 --> 00:20:19,710 Speaker 1: its own private network. This was the place where you 244 00:20:19,730 --> 00:20:23,490 Speaker 1: could surf to on your Magic Link and buy theatre tickets, 245 00:20:23,550 --> 00:20:29,270 Speaker 1: for example. General Magic's graphical interface was a rich, interactive 246 00:20:29,410 --> 00:20:34,700 Speaker 1: multimedia environment, whereas the web in the mid-1990s was mostly 247 00:20:34,770 --> 00:20:39,720 Speaker 1: just pages of text linking to other pages of text. Oh! 248 00:20:41,330 --> 00:20:47,660 Speaker 1: General Magic's boss, Mark Peratt, declared, The web is passive. 249 00:20:48,460 --> 00:20:55,340 Speaker 1: They could do without it. The irony is painful. Mark Peratt. 250 00:20:56,180 --> 00:21:00,220 Speaker 1: the visionary who coined the phrase information economy, the man 251 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:04,100 Speaker 1: who told PBS viewers in 1980 that they were living 252 00:21:04,140 --> 00:21:07,420 Speaker 1: in an information economy that would change their relationship to 253 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:11,500 Speaker 1: each other and change the very way they perceived reality, 254 00:21:12,740 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: this was the man who dismissed the World Wide Web. 255 00:21:19,870 --> 00:21:24,790 Speaker 1: Speaking on the documentary General Magic, a procession of former 256 00:21:24,870 --> 00:21:28,890 Speaker 1: employers talk about their inability to engage with the World 257 00:21:28,930 --> 00:21:34,400 Speaker 1: Wide Web, chuckling or sighing at their own foolishness. I 258 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 1: understand why the men and women who lived through General 259 00:21:37,580 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 1: Magic's rise and fall are so obsessed with missing the Web, 260 00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 1: but I think that failure is a distraction from what 261 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:50,790 Speaker 1: really went wrong. The Web's huge today, and it's been 262 00:21:50,930 --> 00:21:55,420 Speaker 1: huge for a generation, But in 1994, when the Magic 263 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,380 Speaker 1: Link was released, it was just a curiosity. If the 264 00:21:59,420 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: Magic Link had been configured to play nicely with the web, 265 00:22:03,500 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: what difference would it have made? Not enough difference to 266 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: make anyone want to spend the equivalent of $ 3, 000 on 267 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:16,780 Speaker 1: a Motorola Envoy. Missing the web? Embarrassing. But not the 268 00:22:16,850 --> 00:22:23,790 Speaker 1: reason General Magic failed. So let's consider hypothesis two. which 269 00:22:23,860 --> 00:22:27,340 Speaker 1: is that general magic was always doomed because it was 270 00:22:27,460 --> 00:22:32,980 Speaker 1: just too far ahead of its time. In our Cautionary 271 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:37,100 Speaker 1: Tales episode, The False Dawn of the Electric Car, we 272 00:22:37,140 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 1: met the Sinclair C5, an attempt to imagine a sustainable 273 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:46,450 Speaker 1: electric vehicle that flopped so badly it became a national 274 00:22:46,550 --> 00:22:51,350 Speaker 1: joke in the UK in the mid-1980s. That was partly 275 00:22:51,390 --> 00:22:55,070 Speaker 1: because Clive Sinclair made some bad choices in the way 276 00:22:55,150 --> 00:22:58,830 Speaker 1: he designed and marketed his invention. But it was also 277 00:22:58,890 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: because electric cars need affordable, high-capacity batteries. And they just 278 00:23:04,120 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: didn't exist at the time. Similarly for General Magic. By 279 00:23:09,100 --> 00:23:14,480 Speaker 1: the time Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, the price 280 00:23:14,540 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: of memory had fallen a thousandfold since 1994. And there 281 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:24,140 Speaker 1: was 500 times the processing power on a typical microprocessor. 282 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,550 Speaker 1: There was Wi-Fi. There were 3G phone networks. The web 283 00:23:29,630 --> 00:23:35,910 Speaker 1: had things on it. Google, Amazon, news websites. It wasn't 284 00:23:36,210 --> 00:23:39,730 Speaker 1: General Magic's fault that the world had yet to catch 285 00:23:39,870 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: up with Mark Peratt's imagination. Just as it wasn't Clive 286 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:48,830 Speaker 1: Sinclair's fault that that when he launched his aerodynamic bathtub 287 00:23:48,950 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: in 1985, it didn't perform like an electric sports car 288 00:23:53,360 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 1: does today. Just because you can imagine the idea, it 289 00:23:59,140 --> 00:24:02,490 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that you or anyone else can build it. 290 00:24:03,430 --> 00:24:06,570 Speaker 1: That's as true for the Pocket Crystal as it was 291 00:24:06,610 --> 00:24:11,250 Speaker 1: for the C5. Some ideas have to wait for their time. 292 00:24:13,970 --> 00:24:18,450 Speaker 1: One technology commentator explained on the documentary General Magic that 293 00:24:19,150 --> 00:24:21,730 Speaker 1: I think there's actually nothing General Magic could have done 294 00:24:21,770 --> 00:24:26,130 Speaker 1: to succeed because they were at the wrong time. That 295 00:24:26,270 --> 00:24:33,020 Speaker 1: sounds plausible, but he's wrong. General Magic could still have 296 00:24:33,140 --> 00:24:38,620 Speaker 1: triumphed if it hadn't been for one surprising problem. We'll 297 00:24:38,660 --> 00:24:53,540 Speaker 1: find out what that problem was after the break. In 298 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:58,920 Speaker 1: his book, Inside the Box, David Epstein argues that general 299 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:05,100 Speaker 1: magic was operating under a surprising disadvantage. They simply had 300 00:25:05,460 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 1: no constraints. Some of the best hardware and software engineers 301 00:25:10,980 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: in the world were working there, along with superb designers 302 00:25:15,100 --> 00:25:20,460 Speaker 1: and marketing experts, all led by the charismatic prophet, Mark Peratt. 303 00:25:21,540 --> 00:25:25,170 Speaker 1: They had money, lots of money, Apple had invested from 304 00:25:25,210 --> 00:25:29,350 Speaker 1: the start. Then each alliance member contributed millions of dollars 305 00:25:29,450 --> 00:25:32,820 Speaker 1: just to join the club. Then money from retail investors 306 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,660 Speaker 1: poured in. We had too much money, one of the 307 00:25:36,700 --> 00:25:40,460 Speaker 1: company's vice presidents told David Epstein. We never had to 308 00:25:40,500 --> 00:25:43,880 Speaker 1: worry about payroll. What startup in the world never has 309 00:25:43,900 --> 00:25:49,890 Speaker 1: to worry about payroll? So if you have apparently infinite 310 00:25:49,970 --> 00:25:54,030 Speaker 1: money and a compelling vision of the pocket crystal, What 311 00:25:54,050 --> 00:25:57,390 Speaker 1: are you going to do? Try to build the pocket crystal, 312 00:25:57,410 --> 00:26:01,270 Speaker 1: of course. And if the pocket crystal simply couldn't be 313 00:26:01,370 --> 00:26:05,330 Speaker 1: built with the technology of the early 1990s, try to 314 00:26:05,350 --> 00:26:10,700 Speaker 1: build it anyway. You've got talent. You've got time. Why compromise? 315 00:26:11,810 --> 00:26:14,100 Speaker 1: But the trouble with that approach is that it meant 316 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,100 Speaker 1: General Magic's engineers never had to be disciplined about what 317 00:26:18,140 --> 00:26:22,990 Speaker 1: they were trying to do. With less money... what would 318 00:26:23,050 --> 00:26:26,310 Speaker 1: General Magic have done? They might have reasoned, we have 319 00:26:26,390 --> 00:26:29,570 Speaker 1: good partners and great engineers, but we only have so 320 00:26:29,620 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 1: much cash. We need a product that will sell. What 321 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:37,220 Speaker 1: can we make with today's technology that someone will want 322 00:26:37,260 --> 00:26:41,580 Speaker 1: to buy? Instead, they never even got as far as 323 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:47,430 Speaker 1: defining someone. The General Magicians would talk about their target 324 00:26:47,490 --> 00:26:52,170 Speaker 1: market as being Joe Sixpack. You know, the ordinary person, 325 00:26:52,330 --> 00:26:56,680 Speaker 1: the man on the street. Everyone, really. And as Mark 326 00:26:56,750 --> 00:27:02,260 Speaker 1: Peratt had explained back in the 1970s, eventually, everyone would 327 00:27:02,340 --> 00:27:06,110 Speaker 1: have a portable communications device. But not when it has 328 00:27:06,170 --> 00:27:09,470 Speaker 1: a 200-page manual, is the size of a hardback book, 329 00:27:09,690 --> 00:27:14,650 Speaker 1: and costs thousands of dollars. Imagine that General Magic hadn't 330 00:27:14,690 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 1: been trying to invent the future all at once and 331 00:27:18,340 --> 00:27:21,660 Speaker 1: had instead decided to produce a useful tool for a 332 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:27,120 Speaker 1: clearly defined market. Say, corporate executives who are often on 333 00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:32,260 Speaker 1: the road. Would the product have been different? Well, let's see. 334 00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:36,720 Speaker 1: Would the product have had a portable panel of musical 335 00:27:36,780 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 1: instruments as the Magic Link did? Here's the Retro Roadshow 336 00:27:41,360 --> 00:27:45,350 Speaker 1: YouTube channel demonstrating them. Oh, how nice. 337 00:27:45,690 --> 00:27:48,170 Speaker 2: We can even see or sample the different sounds here. 338 00:27:48,190 --> 00:27:57,980 Speaker 1: That's cool. I don't know what you do with that, 339 00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: but it's neat. 340 00:27:58,540 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 2: I don't know what the purpose of it is. 341 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 1: No, I don't know what the purpose of it is either. 342 00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,340 Speaker 1: Scratch the musical instruments. Would the product have had the 343 00:28:07,500 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: Magic Link's cute animations of animals, where you could, say, 344 00:28:12,650 --> 00:28:16,390 Speaker 1: pick up a cartoon cat and release it, and watch 345 00:28:16,450 --> 00:28:19,410 Speaker 1: it tumble and then land on its feet? So cute. 346 00:28:20,910 --> 00:28:25,370 Speaker 1: But no, you wouldn't. Would the product have had massive 347 00:28:25,770 --> 00:28:28,740 Speaker 1: animated emojis? I mean, it's great to be able to 348 00:28:28,780 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 1: attach a big walking lemon emoji to your messages, isn't it? 349 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,690 Speaker 1: We don't really have a lot of processing power here, 350 00:28:35,750 --> 00:28:39,970 Speaker 1: do we? Or memory? Or battery life? So maybe we 351 00:28:40,030 --> 00:28:45,890 Speaker 1: could just focus on some simpler personal productivity apps? Would 352 00:28:45,930 --> 00:28:49,470 Speaker 1: the product have had an animated toss a coin function? 353 00:28:49,930 --> 00:28:53,250 Speaker 1: This was available in the Magic Links game room. Anytime 354 00:28:53,290 --> 00:28:56,370 Speaker 1: you wanted to toss a coin, you'd just click over 355 00:28:56,410 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 1: to the game room on the touchscreen. It might take 356 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,880 Speaker 1: a second to render all the graphics on this 1994 microprocessor. 357 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,820 Speaker 1: There we are. Now just click on the coin. Wait 358 00:29:07,850 --> 00:29:13,950 Speaker 1: a second. Second more. There we are. Tails. Wasn't that fun? 359 00:29:14,970 --> 00:29:19,350 Speaker 1: Wasn't that whimsical? The coin flip, by the way, was 360 00:29:19,530 --> 00:29:24,260 Speaker 1: programmed by General Magic's co-founder Andy Hertzfeld, one of the 361 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:29,050 Speaker 1: greatest software engineers ever born... and a man who at 362 00:29:29,130 --> 00:29:33,490 Speaker 1: that moment clearly felt that he had all the time 363 00:29:33,730 --> 00:29:37,980 Speaker 1: in the world. Speaking of all the time in the world, 364 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:42,700 Speaker 1: the calendar function is a story in itself. It originally 365 00:29:42,740 --> 00:29:44,980 Speaker 1: ran from 1904 to 2096. It was just a few 366 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:51,610 Speaker 1: lines of code. But what if someone writes a historical 367 00:29:51,820 --> 00:29:55,970 Speaker 1: app that needs to go further back in time? So 368 00:29:56,050 --> 00:29:58,850 Speaker 1: the calendar was reprogrammed to go all the way back 369 00:29:58,910 --> 00:30:03,270 Speaker 1: to year one, and much further forward too. Then it 370 00:30:03,310 --> 00:30:06,510 Speaker 1: was realised that human history is longer than that, the 371 00:30:06,610 --> 00:30:09,690 Speaker 1: calendar was reprogrammed again to go back to the beginning 372 00:30:09,710 --> 00:30:16,550 Speaker 1: of astronomical time. That sort of time-wasting, gold-plated feature creep 373 00:30:17,070 --> 00:30:20,220 Speaker 1: is how to make a product that's late and expensive 374 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: and somehow, despite being full of delightful little Easter eggs, 375 00:30:25,900 --> 00:30:31,060 Speaker 1: doesn't really deliver on the basic promise of being useful. 376 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:40,590 Speaker 1: General magic. One part vague, One part impossible. In hindsight, 377 00:30:41,650 --> 00:30:49,530 Speaker 1: it was the perfect name. David Epstein argues that general 378 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 1: magic's ultimate problem was that they had too much freedom. 379 00:30:53,820 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 1: It's so much harder to create something good, argues Epstein, 380 00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 1: if you have no constraints at all. I think he's right, 381 00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:08,580 Speaker 1: although I'd add something. General Magic's problem wasn't that they 382 00:31:08,820 --> 00:31:13,260 Speaker 1: actually had no constraints. They did have constraints. Every person 383 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:19,370 Speaker 1: and every organisation does. Their problem was subtly different. They 384 00:31:19,410 --> 00:31:25,590 Speaker 1: didn't think they had any constraints. In his book, 4,000 Weeks, 385 00:31:26,310 --> 00:31:29,770 Speaker 1: the writer Oliver Berkman urges us all to face up 386 00:31:29,810 --> 00:31:33,420 Speaker 1: to the fact that none of us really have much time. 387 00:31:34,540 --> 00:31:38,980 Speaker 1: With luck, we can expect about 4,000 weeks on this Earth. 388 00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:46,070 Speaker 1: For Berkman, this isn't depressing. It's liberating. We can stop 389 00:31:46,110 --> 00:31:49,610 Speaker 1: making impossible lists of the novels we're going to write, 390 00:31:50,170 --> 00:31:53,390 Speaker 1: skills we're going to master, countries we're going to visit, 391 00:31:53,850 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 1: languages we're going to learn. There's an infinite number of 392 00:31:57,210 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 1: things we might want to do, and there's only a 393 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,570 Speaker 1: finite life in which to do them. we might as 394 00:32:04,610 --> 00:32:08,680 Speaker 1: well face up to that and make some deliberate choices. 395 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,620 Speaker 1: The alternative is to fritter away our time pretending we'll 396 00:32:13,660 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: live forever and eventually smacking into the painful realisation that 397 00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:29,990 Speaker 1: we won't. For General Magic, that painful realisation dawned when 398 00:32:30,030 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 1: their alliance partners lost patience and started demanding a product urgently. Belatedly, 399 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:43,290 Speaker 1: general magic started to scramble. Engineers built bunk beds in 400 00:32:43,330 --> 00:32:46,390 Speaker 1: the office so they could work around the clock. Everyone 401 00:32:46,430 --> 00:32:51,810 Speaker 1: was exhausted. It didn't make any difference. The product was 402 00:32:51,870 --> 00:32:55,550 Speaker 1: still late, and still had too many coin flips and 403 00:32:55,670 --> 00:33:03,130 Speaker 1: walking lemons, and not enough streamlined, responsive, useful apps. Mark 404 00:33:03,190 --> 00:33:07,990 Speaker 1: Peratt left the company. General Magic limped on for a 405 00:33:08,050 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 1: few more years, then collapsed. Mark Peratt's marriage collapsed too. 406 00:33:18,060 --> 00:33:20,900 Speaker 1: He might have felt that he had unlimited time and 407 00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 1: unlimited energy, but the truth was that he only had 408 00:33:24,740 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 1: so much to give. And instead of giving it to 409 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:32,240 Speaker 1: his wife and children, he gave it all to perfect strangers. 410 00:33:33,990 --> 00:33:37,670 Speaker 1: We all have limits in the end. The question is 411 00:33:37,790 --> 00:33:43,150 Speaker 1: when we face up to them. People did learn lessons 412 00:33:43,330 --> 00:33:46,750 Speaker 1: from what happened at General Magic. One of the young 413 00:33:46,790 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 1: magicians was Tony Fidel. When General Magic had started up, 414 00:33:51,340 --> 00:33:55,040 Speaker 1: he'd phone them every day, begging for a job, until 415 00:33:55,180 --> 00:33:59,180 Speaker 1: finally they let him in. When it fell apart, he 416 00:33:59,220 --> 00:34:04,740 Speaker 1: was devastated. But he learned. Andy eventually moved to another 417 00:34:04,780 --> 00:34:09,270 Speaker 1: tech company and paid close attention to two things that 418 00:34:09,370 --> 00:34:15,690 Speaker 1: General Magic had neglected. Number one, what's new and exciting 419 00:34:15,930 --> 00:34:21,870 Speaker 1: and possible given current technology? Number two, what deadline can 420 00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:26,170 Speaker 1: we set ourselves to keep us on track? The answer 421 00:34:26,210 --> 00:34:28,370 Speaker 1: to the first question was that there was a new 422 00:34:28,470 --> 00:34:34,910 Speaker 1: way to compress digital music, the MP3, and ever-cheaper hard drives. 423 00:34:35,530 --> 00:34:38,810 Speaker 1: The combination of the two might allow a digital music 424 00:34:38,890 --> 00:34:43,310 Speaker 1: player that could make portable cassette and CD players obsolete. 425 00:34:44,510 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 1: The answer to the second question? It's January 2001, and 426 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:52,480 Speaker 1: we're going to ship something by Christmas. The company that 427 00:34:52,620 --> 00:34:56,870 Speaker 1: Tony Fadell had joined was Apple. And the product that 428 00:34:56,910 --> 00:35:00,190 Speaker 1: he shepherded to market on time just a few weeks 429 00:35:00,230 --> 00:35:04,480 Speaker 1: before Christmas was the iPod. It was a device that 430 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:12,600 Speaker 1: did one thing beautifully and a huge success. And that 431 00:35:12,860 --> 00:35:17,840 Speaker 1: restraint paved the way for Tony Fadell's next project, something 432 00:35:17,980 --> 00:35:23,610 Speaker 1: much more ambitious. It was the pocket crystal itself made real. 433 00:35:24,610 --> 00:35:31,110 Speaker 1: The iPhone. Tony's colleague at General Magic, Andy Rubin, founded Android. 434 00:35:32,210 --> 00:35:36,620 Speaker 1: Other General Magicians went on to co-found LinkedIn, to take 435 00:35:36,710 --> 00:35:40,940 Speaker 1: charge of search at Google, to run Apple projects such 436 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,500 Speaker 1: as AI, Safari and the Apple Watch, and to become 437 00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:52,540 Speaker 1: Chief Technology Officer of the United States. But not Mark Peratt. 438 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:59,340 Speaker 1: the evangelical prophet of the information age, really did envision 439 00:35:59,380 --> 00:36:04,120 Speaker 1: the technology that's in everyone's pockets today. But there was 440 00:36:04,220 --> 00:36:07,860 Speaker 1: no second act for him in the tech industry. He 441 00:36:07,900 --> 00:36:13,390 Speaker 1: moved into sustainable building materials and capturing energy from recycling. 442 00:36:13,970 --> 00:36:16,930 Speaker 1: Nothing wrong with that, of course. But from a man 443 00:36:16,990 --> 00:36:22,030 Speaker 1: who dreamed of the information society and wanted to share 444 00:36:22,090 --> 00:36:27,220 Speaker 1: that dream with all of us It's surprisingly rooted in 445 00:36:27,240 --> 00:36:33,860 Speaker 1: the Industrial Age. When Peratt told you that you could fly, 446 00:36:34,780 --> 00:36:40,570 Speaker 1: you believed it. And he believed it too. But gravity 447 00:36:40,630 --> 00:36:45,770 Speaker 1: is real. If you persuade yourself that it isn't, you're 448 00:36:45,830 --> 00:36:50,890 Speaker 1: going to hit the ground hard. No wonder Mark Peratt 449 00:36:51,110 --> 00:36:54,610 Speaker 1: didn't find it so easy to get back on his feet. 450 00:37:05,660 --> 00:37:10,070 Speaker 1: This episode was inspired by David Epstein's book Inside the 451 00:37:10,110 --> 00:37:13,930 Speaker 1: Box How Constraints Make Us Better and also by the 452 00:37:14,030 --> 00:37:21,910 Speaker 1: fascinating fly-on-the-wall documentary General Magic. For a full list of sources, 453 00:37:22,350 --> 00:37:31,310 Speaker 1: see the show notes at timharford.com. Cautionary Tales is written 454 00:37:31,350 --> 00:37:35,150 Speaker 1: by me, Tim Harford, with Andrew Wright, Alice Fiennes and 455 00:37:35,190 --> 00:37:39,410 Speaker 1: Ryan Dilley. It's produced by Georgia Mills and Marilyn Rust. 456 00:37:40,670 --> 00:37:42,890 Speaker 1: The sound design and original music are the work of 457 00:37:43,090 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 1: Pascal Wise. Ben-Nadaf Hafri edited the scripts. The show also 458 00:37:49,620 --> 00:37:52,540 Speaker 1: wouldn't have been possible without the work of Jacob Weisberg, 459 00:37:52,700 --> 00:37:58,650 Speaker 1: Greta Cohn, Corinne Gileard-Fisher, Eric Sandler, Christina Sullivan, Keira Posey 460 00:37:58,910 --> 00:38:03,770 Speaker 1: and Owen Miller. Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. 461 00:38:04,290 --> 00:38:07,730 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please remember to share, rate 462 00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,480 Speaker 1: and review. It really does make a difference to us. 463 00:38:11,340 --> 00:38:14,880 Speaker 1: And if you want to hear it ad-free... and receive 464 00:38:14,900 --> 00:38:20,760 Speaker 1: a bonus audio episode, video episode, and members-only newsletter every month, 465 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,980 Speaker 1: why not join the Cautionary Club? To sign up, head 466 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:32,650 Speaker 1: to patreon.com slash cautionary club. That's patreon, p-a-t-r-e-o-n dot com 467 00:38:33,190 --> 00:38:34,950 Speaker 1: slash cautionary club.