WEBVTT - NCAA Final Four Special (Ep. 161) 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.680 Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina Duke to go to the National 0:00:03.760 --> 0:00:04.680 Championship Game. 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:17.600 Who should we pick? Let's go talk to the pros. 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:23.759 Welcome into the Betting Pros Final four preview. Here we 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:27.240 have a fantastic guest with us, Mike Coutrie from the 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:31.120 FTN Network, following him on Twitter at Mike Coutrie CBB. 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:34.480 Mike does outstanding work. I've been following for a long time. 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:37.280 He is the perfect person to come in and tell 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:40.479 us who to pick, sides, totals, and props for the 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:43.960 Final four. It's a fantastic final four that is headed 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.879 towards a great, great title game. Mike, thanks so much 0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.280 for joining us here today. How you doing I'm doing great. 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:50.400 Thanks for having me on, Mike. 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:53.800 I'm a huge fan first and foremost, but yeah, I'm 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:56.320 excited to talk some hoops. It's Final four times, so 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:57.160 let's get into it. 0:00:57.440 --> 0:00:59.320 Uh, You're the perfect person to have on because you 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:01.480 can give us then you can also talk about the 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:03.920 lines and the picks. All your picks there on FTN 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.759 are fantastic killing it as always. I want to start 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.400 with the reaction from the Elite eight. So it appears, 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:12.720 Mike that we had what everyone wants with the general 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:16.880 public wants, which is upsets early, a couple cinderellas, and 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:19.360 then the clock strikes twelve and we move on to 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:21.280 get the top teams here. So what was your quick 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:25.479 reaction here, Saint Peter's Miami, those teams stepping aside here 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:26.280 on the Elite eight? 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:29.440 Yeah, so I guess up until the final four, it's 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:33.200 been kind of absolute madness, like March madness implies, and 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:34.640 which makes a tournament fun. 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:34.880 Right. 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:37.959 We had my own new Jersey guys that are close 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:41.000 to my heart, Saint Peter's, which is funny because I 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:43.560 kind of live, you know, maybe five to ten minutes 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:45.880 from Jersey City, so I usually catch maybe two or 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:47.800 three Saint Peter's games a year live. 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.200 And I went through a couple of games this year. 0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:51.680 I like to see them play Iwona and the other 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:55.960 teams in the MAC, and watching them, the last thing 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:57.600 that came to my mind is is this. 0:01:57.560 --> 0:01:59.440 Team to be an Elite eight team? 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.360 I didn't think they would even be in the tournament conversation, 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:05.200 But of course March is about getting hot at the 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:06.960 right time, and that's what Saint Peter's did, and they 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.080 made that magical run to the Elite eight, and you know, 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:15.480 unfortunately the hot shooting on offense came to an end 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:18.560 against UNC, and we get a you know, a well 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:21.959 known the UNC targical team in the in the final four. 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:25.200 And it's kind of funny because you know, all these 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:28.200 upsets kind of happened throughout the Sweet sixteen to the 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.359 Lait eight, but we somehow snuck in these blue blood 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:35.120 programs into the final four that you know, everybody, everybody 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.359 sitting at home kind of knows the names of the Nova's, 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:41.840 the Kansas of course, Duke In the Coach K's last ride, 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:45.200 and then and you know, the perfect storybook endings where 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.760 they get Coach K's revenge spot against UNC, who kind 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:53.320 of ruined his last night at Cameron Indoors. So so yeah, 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:55.799 it's it's kind of been a it's crazy, but it's 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:59.519 setting up for a perfect ending to a great season here. 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:04.080 So so yeah, it's nothing to hate from the college 0:03:04.080 --> 0:03:07.480 basketball junkie perspective. It doesn't get much better than this. 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.120 Oh, it's fantastic and it's funny. Like you said, the 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:12.880 tournament has been madness. I feel like with my reads, 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.359 some of them were on some of them were way off. 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:17.000 One of them I was way off about was unc 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:19.040 But we'll get to them. Second. I want to start 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:20.680 with the first game here, which is going off at 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:24.680 six point nine on Saturday, Villanova and Kansas. Now, right now, 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:27.440 Kansas looks like it's favored by four, four and a 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:30.920 half depending on where you're getting it over under, pretty 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.240 steady at one thirty three across the board. I guess 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:37.160 my first question here is how much do you think 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:40.560 Justin Moore affects this Villanova team. I remember Mike looking back, 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:43.680 had a question about whether we thought Villanova could make 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.080 the Final four in January, and at the time what 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:50.800 I was saying is Villanova has the same profile at 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:54.119 that time that the other two national championship teams did 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:58.280 with Jay Wright, with the exception of tremendous two point efficiency. 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:01.760 It wasn't quite there, but it has come around. They've 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:05.200 played fantastic but only a six man rotation and now 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.880 know Justin Moore, So quick reac here, Villanova Kansas. How 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:11.119 do you see this one going here? First game six 0:04:11.240 --> 0:04:12.160 or nine on Saturday. 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.960 Yeah, So the Justin Moore is the injury is tragic 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.800 and it's unfortunate because he's an outstanding player and he's 0:04:20.000 --> 0:04:22.599 very important to the roster. I think the line probably 0:04:22.640 --> 0:04:25.080 would have been more towards the two, maybe one and 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:29.320 a half area, if he was actually playing, but unfortunately 0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:32.680 he went down with the Achilles injury. Nova is not 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:36.320 that deep to start with, but to me, depth is 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:40.520 a little overrated in college basketball. I mean, obviously foul 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.960 trouble and injuries death comes into into into play, but 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:48.200 I mean, these guys are in the best shapes of 0:04:48.200 --> 0:04:50.480 their lives. All these guys can play forty minutes if 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:52.960 that to me is not that big of a deal 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.279 death wise for Villanova here, but justin Moore, from a 0:04:57.279 --> 0:04:59.920 talent level, it's a big It's it's an. 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:01.159 And lost for this team. 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:04.520 So the way kind of Nova kind of stacks up 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.279 against Kansas, and to me, they fit the similar profile, 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:09.640 kind of like the Miami team that Kansas just played. 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:13.599 They're a little more disciplined than Miami and they play 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:17.040 a little more physical than Miami, but they are very 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:22.880 perimeter oriented like Miami was. They're very undersized like Miami was. 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:25.320 They don't really have a true center. Eric Dixon kind 0:05:25.320 --> 0:05:28.400 of sixty. He's kind of undersized, for the center position. 0:05:29.279 --> 0:05:32.600 They pick and roll you to death. Nova is very 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:35.000 outstanding in their pick and roll. They're ninety seven percent 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.760 tile in the country and pick and roll offense per Synergy, 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:40.000 and they like to create a lot of mismatches on 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.360 the perimeter. And what makes them unique is when they 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:45.880 do create these mismatches, they like to post up their guards. 0:05:45.880 --> 0:05:48.159 So you see Justin More not in this game coming up, 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:52.000 but him Colin Gillespie, Ko Daniels. They kind of try 0:05:52.040 --> 0:05:54.800 to bully their opponent down in the post, which is 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.919 not really much teams are used to defending, so you 0:05:57.960 --> 0:06:00.800 really need size to defend those god in the post. 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:02.960 And what Nova kind of kills you is when you 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:05.960 do overhelp. They have shooters everywhere they pass out during 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:08.360 the three ball. They kind of living by what they 0:06:08.520 --> 0:06:10.960 live and die by a three point ball, which makes 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.919 them a little bit variant in the tournament setting. But 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.480 like you said, this team profile is great as far 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:19.520 as having the guards to make a run like we 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:22.360 just saw to the final four on the Kansas side, 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:24.880 I do think that they do have the size that 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:29.039 can match up with the with the Nova guards. We 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:33.279 just saw their best defender, Dwan Harris get put on 0:06:33.360 --> 0:06:35.800 Campbell Gusty in the second half when Mugussi at fourteen 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:38.479 in the first half, where Kansas was, you know, majority 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:43.520 switching throughout the game, but they'll self ended up having 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:45.400 him chased around Augustin in the second half and limited 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:47.000 only four points in the second half. And we just 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:50.560 saw Kansas kind of just destroy Miami in the second half. 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:54.800 Kansas has a lot more size, especially down low, and 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:58.520 David McCormack, who could have a big game here against Villanova, 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:01.159 and I just think that there's just too many paths 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:04.360 to victory for this Kansas team against the shorthanded the 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:08.320 Villanova team. You have McCormack inside, you have the length 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.800 on the wings. And then another thing to mention about 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.520 the Nova defense is that they're very switchable and they 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:19.560 like they're actually ranked fourteenth nationally enforcing isolation situations for 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:23.080 their opponents. So you really need very good individual scorers. 0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:25.440 And to me, the difference is the emergence of Remy 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:28.000 Martin on the Kansas side. He can score in bunches 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:31.400 off the bench. Boji can score, Christian bron can score, 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.640 Jalen Wilson's can score. All these guys can score. I 0:07:34.680 --> 0:07:36.560 think they can stop them enough on defense, so I 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.600 think Kansas runs away with this late in the game. 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:42.040 The thing that Nova is going to do in this 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:44.000 game is they're going to really try to slow the 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:48.840 game down. Make this around like sixty possessions where Kansas 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:52.200 if Kansas ends up, you know, having Nova dictate the 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:55.440 pace sixty possession game. I think Nova has a chance. 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:57.800 But if Kansas can get into transition a little bit, 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.520 make this more in the high sixties position, I don't 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:03.280 think Nova can keep up. So I'm going to be 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:05.160 on the Kansas side minus four and a half. And 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:06.520 I also like a play on the under. 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:09.400 Yeah, great points across the board. So many I want 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:13.640 to talk about. First, the Dewan Harris move was so critical, 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:15.800 and I'm glad you brought that up because Mike I 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:18.360 may have had an under on Cam augusty eighteen and 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:22.960 a half points when he had fourteen. I couldn't believe 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:26.679 we hit it. I also think that listen, if Justin 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:30.560 Moore was there, I probably would be on Villanova because 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:34.480 Jay Wright is just excellent in these situations. But like 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.599 you said, it's a critical situation. McCormack is going to 0:08:37.679 --> 0:08:40.440 do things inside. There are so many guards that can attack, 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:44.080 and the development of Remy Martin is really underrated. He's 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:46.360 been injured all year. You heard him in the interview 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:48.360 talk about how he's been down. His teammates had to 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:50.840 pick him up. But he is a scorer. He can 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:54.120 get buckets, which you saw with Duke against Michigan State 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:57.240 and Texas Tech. Those teams couldn't get it late. I 0:08:57.280 --> 0:09:00.200 think Remy Martin Mike saved them against Providence. They were 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:03.560 in trouble, but Martin kept them in that game. So 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:06.480 real interesting points across the board. My other question is 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:11.320 about a Boggie All American. Incredible player, absolutely, but I 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.640 have found that, along with like the Ben maclamore and 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:17.600 the Wayne Seldens of the past, these leading scorers for 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:21.600 Kansas sometimes are hesitant to go outside of self system. 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:23.839 I don't know if that's by design or just by 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:26.920 you know, selfishest they're gonna need him to score. He 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.960 could absolutely really take this game on here, especially like 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:33.720 you said, against a Villanova team that's going to be shorthanded. Yeah. 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:35.839 I mean, he's a great talent and we've been kind 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:38.080 of waiting for him to explode throughout this whole tournament 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:39.960 and he hasn't yet, So maybe this is the spot 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:41.520 final four lights are bright. 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.319 Maybe we see a big AGBANGI game. 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:46.000 Yeah, and the under as well, because I do think 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:50.200 Villanova has to control the pace completely agree there second game. 0:09:50.440 --> 0:09:52.600 Full disclosure, Mike, I've had a little bit of a 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.680 take lock on North Carolina and I have to come around. 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:58.560 My argument was for Saint Peter's because I saw what 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.719 Saint Peters did. Yes, Kentucky, I understand that, Yes to 0:10:01.800 --> 0:10:04.840 Murray State, but the one that stuck with me was Perdue. 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:07.880 I'm like, if they can handle Travion William zach Edy 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:09.839 and jayde and Ivey's going to be a top five pick, 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.600 why is North Carolina going to be any better? Well, 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:15.480 the answer was right now, they're scalding hot. They have 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.560 great chemistry, they have great balance, the guards outside bay 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:22.120 hot inside. So this North Carolina team already has shown 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:25.480 us that they can beat Duke. We have Duke favored 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.320 by four and a half against UNC. I mean, just 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:32.400 an apocalyptic game here for Coach k potentially lose to 0:10:32.440 --> 0:10:35.600 his arch rival twice, or is he going to beat 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:38.200 them and get to the finals here in his final year, 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:41.400 the total also won fifty one. So where are you 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.600 here on a side eight forty nine? Get your popcorn 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:48.240 ready on Saturday, Duke Unc as well as the total 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:50.520 here around one fifty one and a half. 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:54.400 I mean, honestly, if you're one of those people who 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.960 think sports is fixed, this is literally the perfect example. 0:10:58.040 --> 0:10:58.240 Right. 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:02.400 You have Coach K's last year. He loses to North 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:06.120 Carolina in his final home game at Cameron Indoor. Everybody 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:09.199 makes a huge deal out of it. But of course, somehow, 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:11.559 some way, you can't make it up. He gets matched 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:14.240 up against North Carolina in the Final four in a 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:18.760 huge revenge spot. I mean, not even doing any analysis 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:20.760 on the game, Why don't you just hammer Duke money line, 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:23.640 There's no way that Coach k loses this game, right 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.160 from a fan perspective, that would be the most tragic 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:30.120 thing I think ever in college basketball history if he does. 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:32.679 But if we do want to, we do want to 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:36.560 break down the matchup here, and like you mentioned, they 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:40.840 they played twice this year and they split. Uh, Duke 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:42.400 kind of gave it to him in the first in 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:44.440 the first game, but it was more due to poor 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:46.520 shooting by UNC. I was taking a look at the 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.760 shot quality metrics and shot Quality actually had it like 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:51.040 a fifty to fifty game, which was surprising to me 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.240 watching it because I thought Duke kind of manhandle them, 0:11:54.240 --> 0:11:56.520 but the metrics don't really back that up. 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:57.320 What do I know? 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:01.440 Right, But in the second game, it was close until halftime, 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.280 and then Duke kind of, you know, put their foot 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:06.600 on the brake defensively, and you and See just had 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.840 their way in the pick and roll. They couldn't guard Baycott, 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:11.480 they couldn't guard Caleb Love, and you and See kind 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.040 of ran away with that. But you know, I watched 0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:17.280 this North Carolina team a lot this season, and I 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.280 had the similar take as you did, is I was 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.400 not high on them coming into the tournament at all. 0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:25.000 You know, I thought they had a coin flip game 0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:28.000 against Marquette and then I thought Baylor would absolutely destroy them, 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.599 and that did not happen. So I was in the 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:33.640 same boat as you. But you know, you look at 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:37.160 this UNC team and to me, what's kind of gotten 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:39.120 them to this point is that they've they've kind of 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:41.240 ramped it up on defense, and you just saw them 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.480 really locked down Saint Peter's, who was due for some 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:48.600 shooting regression because the way Saint Peter's. Saint Peter's honestly 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:53.280 actually statistically was the best defensive fifteen seed of all time, 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.839 I think per Kenpom if I remember correctly, they graded 0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.599 out maybe twenty seventh or twenty eighth in the country defensively, 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:03.160 which is insane for a fifteen seed. Not the greatest 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.080 team offensively, they just got hot the right time, so 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.600 they finally cooled off. You and C locked them down 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:11.320 and that game wasn't even close from the start. But 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.360 you know, like I said, un C has kind of 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:16.880 ramped it up in the tournament defensively, but when I 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.280 look at them throughout the year, they were very undisciplined. 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:23.480 Twenty eighth percent tile percentergy and transition defense thirty fourth 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:24.280 percent tile and. 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:29.160 Off ball of all defending. So just very undisciplined. 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:32.080 And you know, you give coach k Here a week 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:37.400 to prepare for North Carolina against Hubert Davis, who's you know, 0:13:37.480 --> 0:13:39.240 he's done a great job with un seed, but it's 0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.680 his first year. You know, I'm always gonna side with 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:44.960 coach k Here, especially, you know, you have the narrative 0:13:44.960 --> 0:13:49.880 in the background. Duke has much better individual scorers you have, 0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.000 and they have the size that can match up with 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.880 you and C Baycott underneath who's their you know, their 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.760 go to score. Plus the Baycott likes to crash the glass. 0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:02.760 You he's a great offensive rebounding team. Duke has Mark 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:04.880 Williams and Theo John who can kind of neutralize that. 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:09.280 I don't know who guards Ben Carro on the UNC side, 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:12.760 they've both matchup. They switched it up between Mannick and Black. 0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:15.720 Black is a great individual Leaky Black is a great 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:19.280 individual defender, but he doesn't have the size or the 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.680 strength to matchup with Fan Caro. And then if you 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.280 put Brady Mannick on him, Manic doesn't have really this 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.360 foot speed to be able to stay with him in 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:28.560 the perimeter or when he faces up in the high post. 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:28.800 Right. 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:31.760 So, I think what this game comes down to, which 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.080 kind of comes down to any North Carolina game, is 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:35.720 how all the guards play. Because the guards have been 0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:39.400 very inconsistent for I mean, Love and Davis has been 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:41.000 in the back or for the last three years or 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.080 two years, and you know, their consistency is a little 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.520 up and down. So it really comes down to how 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.080 well they play. And you know, I have a feeling 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:53.080 Duke is going to show a little same defensive scheme 0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:55.600 as they did against Arkansas against Jade Notta's ice, the 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:57.520 ball screens try to get it out of their hands. 0:14:57.560 --> 0:14:59.120 They just have to make sure they don't lose Mannick, 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.160 who is absolutely sniper when you lose him defensively, and 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.360 he's had a great tournament so far. But you know, 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.760 I think they can do a good enough job neutralizing 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.520 Baycot down low, neutralizing the guard play. And then the 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.200 X factor to me for this Duke team throughout the 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.480 tournament has been the emergence of Jeremy Roach at the 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:20.200 point guard spot. He's kind of lost minutes to AJ 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:24.120 Griffin and Trevor keer Peels throughout the year, but he's 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:27.360 been outstanding and really the point guard that Duke's been 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:30.200 looking for all year. Over the last few weeks and 0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:34.120 during March, and he's bring their offensive ceiling way hot, 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:38.960 much higher than it was before this tournament even started. So, 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.800 you know, because of the narrative, the way Duke matches up, 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:45.400 I don't see them losing this game. So I'm even 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.640 gonna lay the points and take Duke four and a half. 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:52.320 But I do from a total perspective. I do think 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.600 that both offenses are going to have a lot of success, 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:56.400 so I'm going to be on the over as well. 0:15:56.600 --> 0:15:59.640 The point about Roach is fantastic. He started in this 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.080 torn and I feel like it was a brilliant move 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:05.320 by Skrzyzewski and the coaching staff. He has gone thirty five, 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:08.040 thirty seven, thirty five and thirty five minutes just playing 0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:10.640 massive minutes just to give you an idea. Only hit 0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.560 thirty minutes in a one of the prior twelve games 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:16.640 for Duke. And what he's done Mike, I think has 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.600 put every Jenga piece in the right place. He's had 0:16:20.640 --> 0:16:23.520 five assists two of these games. Getting assistant college basketball folks, 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:26.480 unless you're Chris Paul Backway farest not easy to do. 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.240 But everyone now is in a role and I think 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:32.600 that's critical. And you saw the window to close do 0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:35.520 To beat Duke, I believe has closed. You need to 0:16:35.640 --> 0:16:39.440 make shots at the end of games. Michigan State and 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.080 Texas Tech could not do that. What Michigan State did 0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:44.240 a couple of years ago to Duke when they had 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:47.480 Zion and Reddish and all those guys is he They 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:50.080 were able to get a lead on them so that 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:52.800 Duke had the pressure. Once Duke took the lead there, 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:55.480 I think it's a totally different story. The emergence of 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.200 Roach is great. I like what North Carolina has done. 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.560 I think the Theo john with Mark Williams is very 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:05.040 underrated because I don't see that North Carolina has that 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:07.960 same depth. Dawstin Garcia left the team. They have Puff 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.920 Johnson behind him. But Baycott really has to have an 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:13.320 absolute monster game, which he did, but he's going to 0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:15.800 have to keep it going. You mentioned Mannik who's been 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.280 on fire. He's fifty percent from three point range or 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:21.600 close to that in the tournament. That absolutely has to continue. 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.160 I want to follow up question on the over under 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:27.159 because I remember when it was in New Orleans the 0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.959 last time all three games went under, but the prior 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.320 time it was in New Orleans, all three games went 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:35.600 over the final four in the championship game. So talk 0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:37.280 a little bit about why you like the over in 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:38.280 this particular situation. 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.000 Yeah, it's funny, and there is a little bit of 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:44.560 a narrative where you know, as the tournament goes on 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.520 and the games get more tight, you know, teams do 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:50.760 play a little tighter and you know, the under is 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:53.320 usually the spot, but I think Vegas fixed that into 0:17:53.320 --> 0:17:55.399 the lines a little bit. I think these these numbers 0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:57.000 are a little lower than where they should be if 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.720 you looked on Ken Pom. But you know, you have Duke, 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:01.479 you and See. You know that the game is going 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.520 to be high paced up and down. It was both 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.480 times they played. It was high paced up and down. 0:18:07.800 --> 0:18:11.800 You know, I think there's a few spots offensively that 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.239 both these teams could have success. If you look at 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.400 the second half of the last game, Duke really struggled 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:19.920 in that kind of middle top of the key pick 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.439 and roll situation where Mannick would slip and then you 0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:25.360 had a short roll from Baycott. You know, I think 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.600 Dude's gonna game plan a little better against that. But 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.120 just because of the pace, just because of the matchup 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:35.159 problems like Ben Carro and even Jeremy Roach I can 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.760 give you and see, I think there's gonna be a lot, 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:39.919 a lot of points, a lot of possessions, and I 0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:42.159 will be on the over I know it's a lot 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:43.879 of points, but I'm still gonna be on the overside. 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:46.320 And of course I'm with you. I'm with you, Mike 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.640 on both picks. So now we're looking at Kansas and Duke. 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:53.840 I mean a legendary, legendary matchup on Monday night. If 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:56.439 that happens and we're right, where are you going in 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:56.920 that game? 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:01.919 Okay, well I have to caveat pick with that. 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:05.320 I have a eighteen to one future on Kansas that 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:09.040 I took back in November, So I may be a 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:13.400 little biased here, but you know, I just think that overall, 0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:17.880 top to ballot to bottom talent, Kansas has a little 0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.080 more talent than this Duke team. From top to bottom. 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.680 They have the size with McCormack. They have kind of 0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:26.760 dual point guards with Dwan Harris and Remy Martin. Now 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.680 Dwan Harris is an absolute lockdown defender, so if they 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.800 need somebody to follow Roach or whoever it is, they 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.600 have that person. And then they have length on the 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:38.919 wing with kind of a you kind of call a 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:44.400 three headed monster with Christian braun Chia Boggy and Jalen Wilson. 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:47.639 And they're switchable on defense. I think Bill selves just 0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:52.520 has so many options that can give any team they play, 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:56.320 but this Duke team specifically just a complete headache. And 0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:59.000 the one thing that Kansas hasn't been able to figure 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:00.760