Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
Speaker 1: by searching Bloomberg Global News. Yep, lemon, it's Monday. Oh
Speaker 1: my god, I feel it. It feels it. Um, you
Speaker 1: know interesting we I kind of had to go out
Speaker 1: and about for a medical thing and or dental thing.
Speaker 1: Um that experience was good. I did. I went to
Speaker 1: a show, I went to a store, so and um,
Speaker 1: you know, they're being very very careful, but I can
Speaker 1: see how you can quickly tip into like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: I'm out. Yeah, totally well and reopening. That is the
Speaker 1: word of the day for sure. And how it's going
Speaker 1: in the effect on the virus is important. Joe No
Speaker 1: Sarah is with us. I am very lucky because it's
Speaker 1: the second time today I've gotten to talk to him.
Speaker 1: How lucky am I? Uh? He joins his on the
Speaker 1: phone from Florida. Mr no Sarah, you are seeing this
Speaker 1: up close and personal in terms of one state's reaction,
Speaker 1: and as you often are, you've got a little bit
Speaker 1: of a different take. What are you seeing? Well? Here
Speaker 1: in booka a time, Let's face it, it's filled with
Speaker 1: New Yorkers. Um, everybody's wearing a mask. I said Sonoma yesterday,
Speaker 1: and I asked somebody what would happen if some torsions
Speaker 1: came in without a mask? And they told me that
Speaker 1: awkward had told him that they need to ask that
Speaker 1: person to leave and that they would try and help
Speaker 1: them from behind a closed door. So, uh, it's not
Speaker 1: like the people that I see, many of whom are elderly.
Speaker 1: By the way, this is Florida, South Florida, are all
Speaker 1: wearing masks. They're all doing the working thing. But there's
Speaker 1: no question is a huge spike in Florida. Um. And
Speaker 1: I think the governant is correct and ascribing a fair
Speaker 1: amount of that to young people who are you know,
Speaker 1: crowding into the bars without without mass, without social distancing,
Speaker 1: and and spreading virus and and the the startling number
Speaker 1: is that the average aide of a person with a
Speaker 1: positive case has dropped from sixty two to thirty four.
Speaker 1: So that pretty much tells you what's going on here.
Speaker 1: And the governor has responded by closing the bars. And
Speaker 1: when he does his daily thing like Cuomo used to do,
Speaker 1: he's always talking about masks and social distancing and washing
Speaker 1: your hands and the importance of all of that. But
Speaker 1: he hasn't mandated mass, which is something that for instance,
Speaker 1: the mayor of Miami has done. And uh, Miami is
Speaker 1: also closed down the beaches for July four, for the
Speaker 1: just the weekend. So um, you know, but you know,
Speaker 1: he's a thing, Jason. Take a look at California. You know,
Speaker 1: California number going out just as fast as Paria numbers are,
Speaker 1: just as fast as Texas numbers are. The virus does
Speaker 1: not care whether you're a progressive governor or a Trump
Speaker 1: loving governor. It really doesn't. And it appears to me
Speaker 1: more and more than just the act of reopening spreads
Speaker 1: virus no matter how much you try to prevent that
Speaker 1: from happening. Um, you know, if we lived in a
Speaker 1: society where a hundred percent of the people wore mass
Speaker 1: and a hundred percent of the people practice social distancing
Speaker 1: all the time, you know, maybe we'd be in better shape.
Speaker 1: But we don't live in that kind of society, and
Speaker 1: so this is kind of the price or pain. Well,
Speaker 1: so you know, Joe, here's the deal. I think so
Speaker 1: many of us are like finger wagging at Florida saying,
Speaker 1: see what you're doing, see what you've created. I mean,
Speaker 1: how should we look at what's happening either in Florida
Speaker 1: or some of the other states where we're seeing number
Speaker 1: just go up. I mean, you know, are they doing
Speaker 1: something wrong or not necessarily because maybe hospitalizations aren't going
Speaker 1: up as much, or you know, and those that are
Speaker 1: more vulnerable are actually quarantining while those that aren't so
Speaker 1: vulnerable are going out and about. And that's a more
Speaker 1: realistic way of kind of getting back to normal and
Speaker 1: reopening our economy. Right. So here's the problem that the
Speaker 1: what the happ to inmiologists say is that you should
Speaker 1: get your R number below one. That means that every
Speaker 1: person who has it gives it to fewer than one person,
Speaker 1: uh statistically, um. But no state is really willing to
Speaker 1: do that, not even New York. New York's at one
Speaker 1: point oh two, which is pretty good as far as
Speaker 1: like at one point five three, Texas is are like
Speaker 1: one point a California's because if they wait that long,
Speaker 1: and they worry about businesses shutting down, about about the
Speaker 1: economy getting worse and worse, So there's an anxiety to
Speaker 1: open up the society as quickly as possible to get
Speaker 1: to get economic activity back up and running. So I
Speaker 1: think you could make a scientific case that every almost
Speaker 1: every state has reopened too early according to the you know,
Speaker 1: the the hard and FASTI epidemiological UM recommendation. UM. But
Speaker 1: but and this is the consequence that we're facing now,
Speaker 1: is that people are giving it to more than one
Speaker 1: person and the numbers aren't going up. The flip side
Speaker 1: is if it truly is all younger people, they will
Speaker 1: be less death and less hospitalizations because younger people are
Speaker 1: more invulnerable to it. Some of them are asymptomatic, and
Speaker 1: you know you can survive in that kind of situation.
Speaker 1: So you know, Florida has actually done a very good
Speaker 1: job of protecting the nursing homes, much better than New York,
Speaker 1: and there's been many, many fewer deaths among the elderly. Uh.
Speaker 1: That's so every state has a kind of a mixed
Speaker 1: bag off. They've done well if as they've done wrong.
Speaker 1: The progressives have to I've had a great deal of
Speaker 1: fun sort of blasting the red state governors and the
Speaker 1: red state governors that a great deal of fun saying, see,
Speaker 1: I numbers are lower than yours, even though you know,
Speaker 1: on and on and on, it's ridiculous. Everybody should be
Speaker 1: trying to figure out the best way to reopen that'll
Speaker 1: kill the fewest numbers of people. Yeah, alright, well, I
Speaker 1: thought provoking as always. Joe No Sarah joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone. Bloomberg opinion columnist, best selling author, host of
Speaker 1: the award winning podcast The Shrink next Door, which has
Speaker 1: a new bonus episode dropping next week, I believe, so
Speaker 1: check that out. It's also gonna be a an Apple
Speaker 1: movie Apple TV movie starring Paul Rutt and Will Ferrell.
Speaker 1: Can't wait for all of that. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 1: this is one of these like I just rubbing my
Speaker 1: hands so excited to get some time with these guys.
Speaker 1: Josh Green is just one of the guys you want
Speaker 1: to hear or from at a time like this, especially
Speaker 1: as this election really heats up. He's got a great
Speaker 1: story in the magazine in role Swap. Trump runs as
Speaker 1: an outsider, Biden plays incumbent. Josh joins us on the phone,
Speaker 1: as does Joe Webber. He is, of course the editor
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel, I think you feel
Speaker 1: the same way I do. You just want to know
Speaker 1: what Josh Green has to say about all this, right,
Speaker 1: we do. But I also want to just say that,
Speaker 1: you know, we we got this story in and then
Speaker 1: the art department came up with some art that was
Speaker 1: just phenomenal, and we're also like do we need the
Speaker 1: words anymore? So, you know, the greatest Josh is like
Speaker 1: the art department can sometimes be even better. But you know,
Speaker 1: the conceit really started with Josh, which was you know,
Speaker 1: obviously the presidential race being what it is, um and
Speaker 1: the times being what they are, it's almost like the
Speaker 1: president as an incumbent UM and UH and Biden have
Speaker 1: almost switched places, it seems, where Biden is actually running
Speaker 1: like the incumbent might, whereas Trump has maintained this sort
Speaker 1: of outsider persona, almost despite actually being interred of the
Speaker 1: tyeral government. Um So, Josh, as you sort of dug
Speaker 1: into this, one of the things that really stood out
Speaker 1: to me was the number of authoritative people you've talked
Speaker 1: to have advised other presidential campaigns in the past. And
Speaker 1: I'm really curious, you know, what were the things that
Speaker 1: stood out to you as you were reporting this. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, overall, what stood out was just the oddity
Speaker 1: of this race. But the specific thing that seems so
Speaker 1: odd as we talked about, is that the two guys
Speaker 1: have sort of just swapped roles. So in speaking to
Speaker 1: pres past presidential strategist, administration officials, Trump officials, it really
Speaker 1: has to do with the unique nature of these two men.
Speaker 1: I mean, on the one hand, Donald Trump, you know,
Speaker 1: loves being a Kennedy, loves holding stadium rallies and tweeting
Speaker 1: and criticizing people. But he's never really kind of cotton
Speaker 1: to running the government. And when you look at all
Speaker 1: this going wrong in the country, from the spread of
Speaker 1: COVID to the recession and the collapse of stock all
Speaker 1: these other things. It's kind of understandable why he might
Speaker 1: not want to focus on that and run the way
Speaker 1: a traditional president would, which is having lots of rose
Speaker 1: garden ceremonies and reminding people that he's the president and
Speaker 1: he's in charge. On the other hand, you know, we've
Speaker 1: never had a candidate quite like Joe Biden, somebody who's
Speaker 1: been on the national stage for so long and it's
Speaker 1: so familiar that he doesn't really need to introduce himself
Speaker 1: to voters the way that like a new candidate like
Speaker 1: Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight. Biden doesn't
Speaker 1: really have to convince people, hey, you know, I'm qualified
Speaker 1: to be president because he's been vice president for eight years,
Speaker 1: he's been a senator for a hundred and forty years
Speaker 1: or something like that, and so he he has very
Speaker 1: well known name recognition. People have a very clear idea
Speaker 1: of who Joe Biden is, moderate, Uncle Joe whatever, whatever,
Speaker 1: and so he can kind of camp out in his basement,
Speaker 1: and as long as he's leading in the polls by ten, twelve,
Speaker 1: fourteen points, he can essentially run an incumbents campaign and
Speaker 1: just say Hey, vote for me. I'm Joe. Time to
Speaker 1: put me in charge. Well, and a big difference is,
Speaker 1: as you write in your story, is about you know, incumbents,
Speaker 1: you know, going after um, undecided voters in the middle right,
Speaker 1: and that's what's missing from Trump. Yeah, it really is.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, there's a reason that incumbent presidents of
Speaker 1: both parties going back a hundred years tend to do
Speaker 1: the same thing. You roll out a big second term agenda,
Speaker 1: You bring in government business big wigs into the oval office.
Speaker 1: You kind of flaunt the power that you have in
Speaker 1: the bully pulpit and sort of established the conditions by
Speaker 1: which voters think, you know, that guy looks like he's
Speaker 1: in charge of thinks, let's give him four more years.
Speaker 1: That's worked for every president, you know, except for UM,
Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter and my in
Speaker 1: my lifetime. And because the incumbents, he has a real
Speaker 1: measurable advantage. So it's sort of interesting that hump has
Speaker 1: chosen to forego those potential advantages. I mean, he can,
Speaker 1: you know, call a nationally televised address, you know, he
Speaker 1: can reach out, you know, he can you can start
Speaker 1: jobs program. There are things that you do in a
Speaker 1: big recession that Trump is just not doing. And by
Speaker 1: failing to do those, I think that helps explain why
Speaker 1: it is that swing voters, voters in the middle at
Speaker 1: least right now, according to the polls we have, are
Speaker 1: primarily signing with Joe Biden. So, Josh, I mentioned the
Speaker 1: the artwork and for those who haven't seen it, and
Speaker 1: because this is obviously a radio program, uh, the art
Speaker 1: department superimposed a Biden face on Trump and a Trump
Speaker 1: face on Biden to get this point across UM. And
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if that's still haunting you, Josh. It is
Speaker 1: haunting my dreams and my nightmareage. I tweeted. I treated
Speaker 1: out the image on my Twitter feed a little a
Speaker 1: little while ago if anybody wants to check it out,
Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure it's a business week UM online
Speaker 1: and the print, but yeah, it's it is weird. The
Speaker 1: face the face swapping is a very vivid visual representation
Speaker 1: of the broader idea I was trying to get out
Speaker 1: here and one that you will not be able to
Speaker 1: shake from your mind for better or force. And so, Josh,
Speaker 1: the unusual nature of this campaign, we got to talk
Speaker 1: about that as well. That's sort of Biden in the
Speaker 1: basement in many ways, and Trump not being able to
Speaker 1: to do these rallies. How much of that atmosphere or
Speaker 1: lack of atmosphere is contributing to sort of the topsy
Speaker 1: turvy nature of this. I think it's contributing a huge amount, because, um,
Speaker 1: you know, the problem for Trump is that right now
Speaker 1: the election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and things
Speaker 1: aren't going real well, not in the public health sense,
Speaker 1: not in an economic sense, and so he needs to
Speaker 1: sort of switch tech and make this a choice election
Speaker 1: between Trump and Biden. Which one do you like, which
Speaker 1: one you trust, which one is better suited to run
Speaker 1: the economy. That's what Trump's campaign is trying to do.
Speaker 1: But but it's difficult, as you said, because Trump held
Speaker 1: one sort of aborted fit full stadium rally, doesn't look
Speaker 1: like it's gonna be any more an anytime soon. He
Speaker 1: can't use the traditional methods that he did in twenty six. Uh.
Speaker 1: He just doesn't seem inclined, as I point out in
Speaker 1: this piece, to behave in the way a normal president
Speaker 1: would and use the Oval Office, use the White House
Speaker 1: bully pulp, but use the rose Garden to try and
Speaker 1: make those distinctions. And because Biden is so far ahead
Speaker 1: in the polls, he doesn't really have any pressure on
Speaker 1: him to get out there and get in front of
Speaker 1: voters and risk making a gas, making mistakes, saying something
Speaker 1: offensive that could weaken as support. And so here we
Speaker 1: are on what feels like a glide path toward a
Speaker 1: Biden victory at least barring change. But of course, as
Speaker 1: we know, everything changes every three weeks exactly. And I
Speaker 1: would never you know, this is a president who and
Speaker 1: a candidate formally who did things his own way and
Speaker 1: full all you know, kind of old all of us
Speaker 1: in terms of finding his way to the White House.
Speaker 1: So time will tell whether or not this will ultimately
Speaker 1: hurt him. Uh. In the meantime, it's an incredible read,
Speaker 1: great reporting, Josh as always, and I gottas the picture
Speaker 1: connected with the story that's in the magazine, it's online. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a little jar, it's a little makes me a
Speaker 1: little look at me go, Please stop, please stop, um,
Speaker 1: of course. Josh Greeny, National correspondent, Bloomberg Business Week on
Speaker 1: the phone from Washington, and our thanks to Joel Weber,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week, editor on the phone in Massachusetts. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. We love talking to Andy Brown. He
Speaker 1: is the editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy, always looking
Speaker 1: at the whole world. Are expert on China, he joins
Speaker 1: us on the phone from New Hampshire. I do want
Speaker 1: to start, maybe in an unconventional way, though, Andy, if
Speaker 1: I may. I know you've been in New Hampshire now
Speaker 1: for a number of months. What does this all look
Speaker 1: like from there? What does you mean? What does the
Speaker 1: trade war? And what does what does this crisis look like?
Speaker 1: The shutdown everything? Because I realized that we haven't really
Speaker 1: talked to you about that element, sort of from a
Speaker 1: personal and professional perspective, because you know, we hear from
Speaker 1: all these folks across the country, and um, I wonder
Speaker 1: what it looks like from your perspective, especially given how
Speaker 1: in touch you are with the rest of the world. Yeah, so, um,
Speaker 1: I don't know from my from my vantage point here
Speaker 1: in Sunnopy, New Hampshire, it seems that the United States
Speaker 1: has forgotten about the pandemic. Everybody's coming here on holiday. Uh,
Speaker 1: nobody is wearing a face mask. Nobody seems to be
Speaker 1: thinking about social distancing. Um. The good news, I guess,
Speaker 1: is that Americans are traveling again. And we were just
Speaker 1: talking actually the New New Economy Forum with the the
Speaker 1: h air BnB CEO just a couple of days ago,
Speaker 1: thinking us the business for airbnb, um is roaring back. Um.
Speaker 1: I gotta say though, I mean, overall, the rest of
Speaker 1: the world is looking at the United States, the lack
Speaker 1: of face must, the lack of social distancing, the lack
Speaker 1: of a coordinated government response to this, and shaking its
Speaker 1: head and saying, you know, how, how how is this?
Speaker 1: How is this possible? Particularly in Asia where this is
Speaker 1: just sort of it's a reflex. Now it's a social reflex.
Speaker 1: People don't need to be told. And of course we're
Speaker 1: seeing this now in Europe, which is about to take
Speaker 1: a decision on on on on reopening and who's going
Speaker 1: to come in And I'm afraid it looks like the
Speaker 1: United States is not going to be on that list,
Speaker 1: but China will be. And that's going to be a
Speaker 1: huge deal if if Europe closes its stores to American
Speaker 1: travelers but opens them to the Chinese. God like, you
Speaker 1: can't even get your head around something like that. You know,
Speaker 1: I love your column, and I'm going to just you know,
Speaker 1: kind of switch gears a little bit, because, you know,
Speaker 1: we all tweeted out the pictures of the impact that
Speaker 1: the global pandemic had on our environment. Right, we had
Speaker 1: a respite, We had clearer and bluers guys around the world.
Speaker 1: We were seeing, you know, mountains that we hadn't seen
Speaker 1: for a while. We talked about the skies in China
Speaker 1: that are certainly known, you know for being um, very
Speaker 1: very polluted, and we've got to break but that's changed again.
Speaker 1: And you write about this Andy in your column, Um,
Speaker 1: how China is once again kind of retreating on climate
Speaker 1: change and what the impact of that will be, not
Speaker 1: just on our environment, but on its relationship again with
Speaker 1: the West, already a troubled relationship with the West. Talked
Speaker 1: to us a little bit about that. Yeah, so so,
Speaker 1: having lived in China for for for decades, I've kind
Speaker 1: of seen previous episodes of this. And you know where
Speaker 1: where suddenly Beijing soot filled skies turned blue. And when
Speaker 1: they turned blue, Beijing is one of the most beautiful
Speaker 1: cities in the world. Um, you know, the first time,
Speaker 1: China was hoping to host the Olympic Games, and an
Speaker 1: inspection committee from the Olympics came in and the government
Speaker 1: ordered all the coal boil at COALFI had boilers to
Speaker 1: turn off, and the city shivered for a couple of days,
Speaker 1: but the sky's turned blue. And then something similar happened
Speaker 1: during the Olympics in two thousand and eight. And we've seen,
Speaker 1: as you say, something quite similar just a few months
Speaker 1: ago where the Chinese economy went into lockdown and all
Speaker 1: of those coal fired power stations all around Beijing that
Speaker 1: belt smoke into the Chinese capitol um you know, shut
Speaker 1: off and suddenly, you know, you had this what now
Speaker 1: people now call Olympic Blue. Unfortunately, every one of these
Speaker 1: episodes has been fleeting uh and it's proved to be
Speaker 1: the case in the latest episode, where you know, the
Speaker 1: Chinese economy is now is now roaring back to life.
Speaker 1: Carbon emissions are where they were before the lockdown, and
Speaker 1: the worst of it is that things that covered emissions
Speaker 1: are about to spike even higher. And this is because
Speaker 1: China is going back. Local governments are going back to
Speaker 1: the tried and tested way of of of kicking off
Speaker 1: GDP growth build coal fire power stations, and and the
Speaker 1: tension here, I think this is rarely going to set
Speaker 1: up a whole new area of tension with the West
Speaker 1: because because most of the West or much of the
Speaker 1: West is heading in exactly the opposite direction. You know,
Speaker 1: Britain hasn't burned a lump of coal in weeks and weeks.
Speaker 1: It's the longest period without coal since the Industrial Revolution,
Speaker 1: you know, in in the eighteen in the eighteen eighties. Um,
Speaker 1: the United States this year is going to be is
Speaker 1: going to be producing more power from renewables than coal
Speaker 1: for the first time ever, you know, the first first
Speaker 1: time in in in in in years and years. And
Speaker 1: you know it's Sweden, Austria. They're going to close down
Speaker 1: their last coal power you know stations. It doesn't really
Speaker 1: matter because China burns half the world's coal, and so
Speaker 1: you know, uh, it's neither here nor there. What happens
Speaker 1: of course in Sweden, in Austria, China burning more coal
Speaker 1: is going to swamp all of those games. Hey, and
Speaker 1: it just got like seconds here, so just quickly, I mean,
Speaker 1: wouldn't these tensions have happened anyway just because the West
Speaker 1: is and has been for a while getting off of coal,
Speaker 1: and China has not really showed any signs of slowing
Speaker 1: just quickly. You're you're, you're right. But I think it's
Speaker 1: just the stock divergence now where you know, coal is
Speaker 1: is really disappearing from the grids in western countries and
Speaker 1: in China it's making comma and will be exported through
Speaker 1: the Belt and Road initiatives. So you're going to get
Speaker 1: coal fired power stations, fleets of these all over pristine
Speaker 1: sections of Central Asia other parts of the developing world.
Speaker 1: China is the largest financier of minds and power stations
Speaker 1: in the developing world. It's just a reminder why we
Speaker 1: do need everybody on the global stage to be talking
Speaker 1: with one another, especially the big powers, whether it's China,
Speaker 1: whether it's the United States or guess what's not happening
Speaker 1: that at that talking is not happening right now? All right,
Speaker 1: Andy Brown, thank you so much keeping us honest on
Speaker 1: all things with the Bloomberg New economy. Journing us on
Speaker 1: the phone from New Hampshire, brother Journal. But you let
Speaker 1: me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll
Speaker 1: do the riding velvet me. I want to drive, Just drive, baby, questions, trying.
Speaker 1: This is the drive to the globe community. Thanks, we'll
Speaker 1: drying us on Bloomberg Radio, and it is time for
Speaker 1: the drive to the clothes back with us. Ryan Dietrich,
Speaker 1: senior market strategist at LPL Financial, looking after about six
Speaker 1: hundred seventy billion dollars that firm is, He joins us
Speaker 1: on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, always good
Speaker 1: to have you back with Carol and myself. And I'm
Speaker 1: gonna start where I always start with you, which is
Speaker 1: what's going on down in Charlotte. How is this all
Speaker 1: looking from your perspective? Personally? I feel like the last
Speaker 1: time we talked, keep me honest here you were talking about,
Speaker 1: you know, maybe some youth sports starting up again, and
Speaker 1: you're sort of getting back a little bit. I wonder
Speaker 1: what's happened in the in the meantime, Hey, Jason A, Carol,
Speaker 1: thank you guys for having me back. Right um, you know,
Speaker 1: just tonight in a couple of hours, my son Sebastian
Speaker 1: has a baseball game, and tomorrow night, my son Gus
Speaker 1: is a soccer game. So we're slowly getting it. It's weird,
Speaker 1: you know, because they don't have dugouts, the kids are
Speaker 1: all staying with the parents, we're all six ft apart um.
Speaker 1: You know, there's no high fives and things like that.
Speaker 1: So there's some parts of normalcy coming back. But I
Speaker 1: still go to the office every once in a while
Speaker 1: and there's still there's nobody on the road. Still, it's
Speaker 1: still there's a ghost town, it seems like from that
Speaker 1: point of view. But I guess just the fact that
Speaker 1: the kids sports are slowly starting up, and honestly, we
Speaker 1: are in South Carolina, so thin there's we all know
Speaker 1: we're a little more laxed. Maybe I guess that some
Speaker 1: of the things going on and they really that's right
Speaker 1: or wrong. And you look at some of the numbers
Speaker 1: that we can get into. It is scary because I
Speaker 1: don't necessarily know anyone that has it. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, we see the numbers and it's it continues
Speaker 1: to go higher. But we are getting some normalcy back
Speaker 1: here um watching our kids play some sports, right, So
Speaker 1: we're getting to do that, which does make us feel
Speaker 1: more normal. But when you look at the markets, the
Speaker 1: bounce back that we've had, and then you look at
Speaker 1: the economic data points, the earnings projections, something we just
Speaker 1: talked about with Dave Wilson that there seems to be,
Speaker 1: you know, more companies coming out and being more optimistic
Speaker 1: about their earnings outlook. You know, does it make you
Speaker 1: feel more positive about the financial markets or more cautionary
Speaker 1: considering the bounce back that we've had already? Yeah, Carol,
Speaker 1: I guess we'd be a little more cautious because came on,
Speaker 1: you guys in April and May. We were quite bolish then,
Speaker 1: and that's when everything was bad, right, all the all
Speaker 1: the negativity out there. Wouldn't it be something if after
Speaker 1: this forty plus per cent and route that we've had,
Speaker 1: now the ECONO lo at the housing data today, my goodness.
Speaker 1: I mean, most of the data we're seeing is coming
Speaker 1: in much better than expected. Wouldn't it be something of
Speaker 1: This is kind of where the market takes a break,
Speaker 1: and I love it. But I will say, just like
Speaker 1: Jillianish in late to our Bloomberg Economics economists, she said,
Speaker 1: after I said, wow, look at that number, she goes, yeah,
Speaker 1: but it's after two months where we fell off a cliff.
Speaker 1: So we have to you can't just look at one
Speaker 1: month data point. You've got to look at it in context.
Speaker 1: Of what the economic backdrop and environment have been over
Speaker 1: the last couple of months, right exactly. I mean mostly
Speaker 1: the economic data points two months prior were some of
Speaker 1: the worst we've ever seen. You're coming off historically historically
Speaker 1: low levels, but it's still a positive thing. But at
Speaker 1: the same time, look at history. You know, March A
Speaker 1: two thousand three major market low, rallied like mad for
Speaker 1: a few months, consolidated in the summer. March at two
Speaker 1: thousand nine, major market low, huge proby for a few months,
Speaker 1: consolidated in the summer. Here we are once again that
Speaker 1: month of March. Obviously, we know we've had one of
Speaker 1: the greatest three months rallies in history here and and
Speaker 1: we think it makes sense. Would Mark Twain say history
Speaker 1: doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Maybe markets to consolidate, maybe
Speaker 1: even pull back, which wouldn't be that bad after rally,
Speaker 1: and then eventually worked away higher. That's what happened in
Speaker 1: two thousand three and two thousand nine. We wouldn't be
Speaker 1: shocked at alf it happened once again. So Ryan, you know,
Speaker 1: we caught up with Josh Green are fantastic National correspondent
Speaker 1: for a Business week earlier in the show and he
Speaker 1: was reminding us. Not that we necessarily needed a reminding,
Speaker 1: but I feel like some folks do. It is a
Speaker 1: presidential election year. We are moving closer and closer. You
Speaker 1: guys down around the Charlotte area are all too aware
Speaker 1: of some of the politics around conventions and and and whatnot. Um,
Speaker 1: but it is a presidential election here. I do wonder
Speaker 1: how soon you start to factor that into your investment
Speaker 1: calculus or are you already Yeah, We're not quite practical
Speaker 1: quite yet, because clearly what the market is wanting to
Speaker 1: see is to reopen time. We know that, right. The
Speaker 1: data continues to show more and more cases. But the
Speaker 1: re opening is what Mr stock markets really excited about.
Speaker 1: But you mentioned the the the election, and interestingly enough,
Speaker 1: the stock market is one of the best indicators we
Speaker 1: have for who's gonna win that election. We took a
Speaker 1: look and if you look at how the stock market
Speaker 1: does by the spid, if it's up three months before
Speaker 1: the incoming party tends to win, and if it's down
Speaker 1: three months before the election, incoming party tends to lose,
Speaker 1: it's been right every single time since eighty four higher.
Speaker 1: It's been right eighty seven percent of the time. Twenty
Speaker 1: and twenty three times come back to So the reality
Speaker 1: of fact is when that clock starts here. Depending on
Speaker 1: where you are, how stocks are doing, you might give
Speaker 1: that clue as to who will win the election in
Speaker 1: November and be in the White House next January. Ryan,
Speaker 1: what's more important to the markets though? Is it the election?
Speaker 1: Is it the virus and the economy getting back on track?
Speaker 1: I mean, is it or is it both? And they're connected? Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: we think at this point it is the virus, right,
Speaker 1: I mean we think if you live at the numbers,
Speaker 1: we know it's the surgeon cases. We get it. But
Speaker 1: the surgeon hospital stays is starting to trickle higher. But no,
Speaker 1: we will We saw in April unfortunately the number of
Speaker 1: death and I know death lagged the cases, but still
Speaker 1: we're not seeing those. I mean, we'll see much more
Speaker 1: ready to fight this, I think, and we do things.
Speaker 1: The market is. The stock market is telling us, you
Speaker 1: know that maybe there could be better economic data had
Speaker 1: the second half of this year, but its anything we've
Speaker 1: learned this year, it's the economy of stock. Markets don't
Speaker 1: always died. In fact, they haven't drive it all much
Speaker 1: this year. So again kind of like my big teams earlier.
Speaker 1: Maybe the economy are better than the market takes a break,
Speaker 1: but there's no question to leave it. Closer to the election,
Speaker 1: we're gonna start breaking all those things down. But I
Speaker 1: always pointed now as the president Trump want everyone thought
Speaker 1: Steal and Cole would do very well. They happened. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's never so obvious as to what's going to happen.
Speaker 1: If everyone's talking about it's probably priced. Then we've had
Speaker 1: bear markets and the bowl markets and Republicans and Democrats.
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, the economy is doing
Speaker 1: is what matters more. And the economic keeps opening up. Hey,
Speaker 1: it might not matter who's in the White House, and
Speaker 1: we still see this. Markets are higher in one that's
Speaker 1: very true. All right, Gonna leave with there. Ryan Dietrich,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, Senior Market Strategies at LPL Financial
Speaker 1: six d seventy billion in in assets under management. On
Speaker 1: the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks so much for
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