1 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: Jason Kelley. We're right here every day bringing you the 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 1: latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 4 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,280 Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 5 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 1: and of course Carol that's part of a team of 6 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred 7 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business 8 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can 9 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 10 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:36,680 Speaker 1: by searching Bloomberg Global News. Yep, lemon, it's Monday. Oh 12 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 1: my god, I feel it. It feels it. Um, you 13 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 1: know interesting we I kind of had to go out 14 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: and about for a medical thing and or dental thing. 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: Um that experience was good. I did. I went to 16 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: a show, I went to a store, so and um, 17 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: you know, they're being very very careful, but I can 18 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: see how you can quickly tip into like, oh my god, 19 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: I'm out. Yeah, totally well and reopening. That is the 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: word of the day for sure. And how it's going 21 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: in the effect on the virus is important. Joe No 22 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: Sarah is with us. I am very lucky because it's 23 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: the second time today I've gotten to talk to him. 24 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: How lucky am I? Uh? He joins his on the 25 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: phone from Florida. Mr no Sarah, you are seeing this 26 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: up close and personal in terms of one state's reaction, 27 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: and as you often are, you've got a little bit 28 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: of a different take. What are you seeing? Well? Here 29 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 1: in booka a time, Let's face it, it's filled with 30 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: New Yorkers. Um, everybody's wearing a mask. I said Sonoma yesterday, 31 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 1: and I asked somebody what would happen if some torsions 32 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 1: came in without a mask? And they told me that 33 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: awkward had told him that they need to ask that 34 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: person to leave and that they would try and help 35 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: them from behind a closed door. So, uh, it's not 36 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: like the people that I see, many of whom are elderly. 37 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: By the way, this is Florida, South Florida, are all 38 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: wearing masks. They're all doing the working thing. But there's 39 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: no question is a huge spike in Florida. Um. And 40 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: I think the governant is correct and ascribing a fair 41 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: amount of that to young people who are you know, 42 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: crowding into the bars without without mass, without social distancing, 43 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: and and spreading virus and and the the startling number 44 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: is that the average aide of a person with a 45 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 1: positive case has dropped from sixty two to thirty four. 46 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,839 Speaker 1: So that pretty much tells you what's going on here. 47 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: And the governor has responded by closing the bars. And 48 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: when he does his daily thing like Cuomo used to do, 49 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: he's always talking about masks and social distancing and washing 50 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 1: your hands and the importance of all of that. But 51 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: he hasn't mandated mass, which is something that for instance, 52 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: the mayor of Miami has done. And uh, Miami is 53 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: also closed down the beaches for July four, for the 54 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: just the weekend. So um, you know, but you know, 55 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: he's a thing, Jason. Take a look at California. You know, 56 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: California number going out just as fast as Paria numbers are, 57 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: just as fast as Texas numbers are. The virus does 58 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 1: not care whether you're a progressive governor or a Trump 59 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: loving governor. It really doesn't. And it appears to me 60 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:25,080 Speaker 1: more and more than just the act of reopening spreads 61 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: virus no matter how much you try to prevent that 62 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 1: from happening. Um, you know, if we lived in a 63 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:34,400 Speaker 1: society where a hundred percent of the people wore mass 64 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 1: and a hundred percent of the people practice social distancing 65 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 1: all the time, you know, maybe we'd be in better shape. 66 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: But we don't live in that kind of society, and 67 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: so this is kind of the price or pain. Well, 68 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: so you know, Joe, here's the deal. I think so 69 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: many of us are like finger wagging at Florida saying, 70 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: see what you're doing, see what you've created. I mean, 71 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,440 Speaker 1: how should we look at what's happening either in Florida 72 00:03:57,680 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: or some of the other states where we're seeing number 73 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 1: just go up. I mean, you know, are they doing 74 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: something wrong or not necessarily because maybe hospitalizations aren't going 75 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 1: up as much, or you know, and those that are 76 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: more vulnerable are actually quarantining while those that aren't so 77 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: vulnerable are going out and about. And that's a more 78 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 1: realistic way of kind of getting back to normal and 79 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:23,640 Speaker 1: reopening our economy. Right. So here's the problem that the 80 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: what the happ to inmiologists say is that you should 81 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: get your R number below one. That means that every 82 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: person who has it gives it to fewer than one person, 83 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: uh statistically, um. But no state is really willing to 84 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: do that, not even New York. New York's at one 85 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: point oh two, which is pretty good as far as 86 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 1: like at one point five three, Texas is are like 87 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: one point a California's because if they wait that long, 88 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: and they worry about businesses shutting down, about about the 89 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 1: economy getting worse and worse, So there's an anxiety to 90 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: open up the society as quickly as possible to get 91 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: to get economic activity back up and running. So I 92 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: think you could make a scientific case that every almost 93 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: every state has reopened too early according to the you know, 94 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:20,919 Speaker 1: the the hard and FASTI epidemiological UM recommendation. UM. But 95 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: but and this is the consequence that we're facing now, 96 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: is that people are giving it to more than one 97 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: person and the numbers aren't going up. The flip side 98 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: is if it truly is all younger people, they will 99 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: be less death and less hospitalizations because younger people are 100 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 1: more invulnerable to it. Some of them are asymptomatic, and 101 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 1: you know you can survive in that kind of situation. 102 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: So you know, Florida has actually done a very good 103 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: job of protecting the nursing homes, much better than New York, 104 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: and there's been many, many fewer deaths among the elderly. Uh. 105 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 1: That's so every state has a kind of a mixed 106 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 1: bag off. They've done well if as they've done wrong. 107 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,919 Speaker 1: The progressives have to I've had a great deal of 108 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: fun sort of blasting the red state governors and the 109 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 1: red state governors that a great deal of fun saying, see, 110 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: I numbers are lower than yours, even though you know, 111 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: on and on and on, it's ridiculous. Everybody should be 112 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 1: trying to figure out the best way to reopen that'll 113 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: kill the fewest numbers of people. Yeah, alright, well, I 114 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,719 Speaker 1: thought provoking as always. Joe No Sarah joining us on 115 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: the phone. Bloomberg opinion columnist, best selling author, host of 116 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: the award winning podcast The Shrink next Door, which has 117 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 1: a new bonus episode dropping next week, I believe, so 118 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 1: check that out. It's also gonna be a an Apple 119 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: movie Apple TV movie starring Paul Rutt and Will Ferrell. 120 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 1: Can't wait for all of that. This is Bloomberg Business 121 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio 122 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: this is one of these like I just rubbing my 123 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,719 Speaker 1: hands so excited to get some time with these guys. 124 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: Josh Green is just one of the guys you want 125 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,640 Speaker 1: to hear or from at a time like this, especially 126 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: as this election really heats up. He's got a great 127 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: story in the magazine in role Swap. Trump runs as 128 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: an outsider, Biden plays incumbent. Josh joins us on the phone, 129 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: as does Joe Webber. He is, of course the editor 130 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel, I think you feel 131 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: the same way I do. You just want to know 132 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 1: what Josh Green has to say about all this, right, 133 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: we do. But I also want to just say that, 134 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,520 Speaker 1: you know, we we got this story in and then 135 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: the art department came up with some art that was 136 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: just phenomenal, and we're also like do we need the 137 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 1: words anymore? So, you know, the greatest Josh is like 138 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: the art department can sometimes be even better. But you know, 139 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: the conceit really started with Josh, which was you know, 140 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: obviously the presidential race being what it is, um and 141 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: the times being what they are, it's almost like the 142 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: president as an incumbent UM and UH and Biden have 143 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: almost switched places, it seems, where Biden is actually running 144 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: like the incumbent might, whereas Trump has maintained this sort 145 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:06,760 Speaker 1: of outsider persona, almost despite actually being interred of the 146 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: tyeral government. Um So, Josh, as you sort of dug 147 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: into this, one of the things that really stood out 148 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: to me was the number of authoritative people you've talked 149 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 1: to have advised other presidential campaigns in the past. And 150 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: I'm really curious, you know, what were the things that 151 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: stood out to you as you were reporting this. Well, 152 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: you know, overall, what stood out was just the oddity 153 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: of this race. But the specific thing that seems so 154 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: odd as we talked about, is that the two guys 155 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: have sort of just swapped roles. So in speaking to 156 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: pres past presidential strategist, administration officials, Trump officials, it really 157 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: has to do with the unique nature of these two men. 158 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: I mean, on the one hand, Donald Trump, you know, 159 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: loves being a Kennedy, loves holding stadium rallies and tweeting 160 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,680 Speaker 1: and criticizing people. But he's never really kind of cotton 161 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 1: to running the government. And when you look at all 162 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: this going wrong in the country, from the spread of 163 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: COVID to the recession and the collapse of stock all 164 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,719 Speaker 1: these other things. It's kind of understandable why he might 165 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: not want to focus on that and run the way 166 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: a traditional president would, which is having lots of rose 167 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: garden ceremonies and reminding people that he's the president and 168 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: he's in charge. On the other hand, you know, we've 169 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,439 Speaker 1: never had a candidate quite like Joe Biden, somebody who's 170 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: been on the national stage for so long and it's 171 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,679 Speaker 1: so familiar that he doesn't really need to introduce himself 172 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: to voters the way that like a new candidate like 173 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: Barack Obama did in two thousand and eight. Biden doesn't 174 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,719 Speaker 1: really have to convince people, hey, you know, I'm qualified 175 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: to be president because he's been vice president for eight years, 176 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: he's been a senator for a hundred and forty years 177 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: or something like that, and so he he has very 178 00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,680 Speaker 1: well known name recognition. People have a very clear idea 179 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: of who Joe Biden is, moderate, Uncle Joe whatever, whatever, 180 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: and so he can kind of camp out in his basement, 181 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 1: and as long as he's leading in the polls by ten, twelve, 182 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: fourteen points, he can essentially run an incumbents campaign and 183 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: just say Hey, vote for me. I'm Joe. Time to 184 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: put me in charge. Well, and a big difference is, 185 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 1: as you write in your story, is about you know, incumbents, 186 00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: you know, going after um, undecided voters in the middle right, 187 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: and that's what's missing from Trump. Yeah, it really is. 188 00:10:19,320 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: I mean, look, there's a reason that incumbent presidents of 189 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: both parties going back a hundred years tend to do 190 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: the same thing. You roll out a big second term agenda, 191 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: You bring in government business big wigs into the oval office. 192 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,680 Speaker 1: You kind of flaunt the power that you have in 193 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: the bully pulpit and sort of established the conditions by 194 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: which voters think, you know, that guy looks like he's 195 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: in charge of thinks, let's give him four more years. 196 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: That's worked for every president, you know, except for UM, 197 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter and my in 198 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: my lifetime. And because the incumbents, he has a real 199 00:10:56,559 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: measurable advantage. So it's sort of interesting that hump has 200 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 1: chosen to forego those potential advantages. I mean, he can, 201 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: you know, call a nationally televised address, you know, he 202 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 1: can reach out, you know, he can you can start 203 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: jobs program. There are things that you do in a 204 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: big recession that Trump is just not doing. And by 205 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: failing to do those, I think that helps explain why 206 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 1: it is that swing voters, voters in the middle at 207 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: least right now, according to the polls we have, are 208 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 1: primarily signing with Joe Biden. So, Josh, I mentioned the 209 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: the artwork and for those who haven't seen it, and 210 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 1: because this is obviously a radio program, uh, the art 211 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: department superimposed a Biden face on Trump and a Trump 212 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 1: face on Biden to get this point across UM. And 213 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 1: I'm wondering if that's still haunting you, Josh. It is 214 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 1: haunting my dreams and my nightmareage. I tweeted. I treated 215 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: out the image on my Twitter feed a little a 216 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: little while ago if anybody wants to check it out, 217 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:01,239 Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure it's a business week UM online 218 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: and the print, but yeah, it's it is weird. The 219 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 1: face the face swapping is a very vivid visual representation 220 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 1: of the broader idea I was trying to get out 221 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: here and one that you will not be able to 222 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: shake from your mind for better or force. And so, Josh, 223 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,840 Speaker 1: the unusual nature of this campaign, we got to talk 224 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 1: about that as well. That's sort of Biden in the 225 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: basement in many ways, and Trump not being able to 226 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: to do these rallies. How much of that atmosphere or 227 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: lack of atmosphere is contributing to sort of the topsy 228 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: turvy nature of this. I think it's contributing a huge amount, because, um, 229 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: you know, the problem for Trump is that right now 230 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 1: the election is a referendum on Donald Trump, and things 231 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 1: aren't going real well, not in the public health sense, 232 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,960 Speaker 1: not in an economic sense, and so he needs to 233 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 1: sort of switch tech and make this a choice election 234 00:12:52,720 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 1: between Trump and Biden. Which one do you like, which 235 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 1: one you trust, which one is better suited to run 236 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,080 Speaker 1: the economy. That's what Trump's campaign is trying to do. 237 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: But but it's difficult, as you said, because Trump held 238 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: one sort of aborted fit full stadium rally, doesn't look 239 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: like it's gonna be any more an anytime soon. He 240 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:15,319 Speaker 1: can't use the traditional methods that he did in twenty six. Uh. 241 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: He just doesn't seem inclined, as I point out in 242 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: this piece, to behave in the way a normal president 243 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 1: would and use the Oval Office, use the White House 244 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 1: bully pulp, but use the rose Garden to try and 245 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: make those distinctions. And because Biden is so far ahead 246 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: in the polls, he doesn't really have any pressure on 247 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 1: him to get out there and get in front of 248 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: voters and risk making a gas, making mistakes, saying something 249 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 1: offensive that could weaken as support. And so here we 250 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: are on what feels like a glide path toward a 251 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,319 Speaker 1: Biden victory at least barring change. But of course, as 252 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: we know, everything changes every three weeks exactly. And I 253 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: would never you know, this is a president who and 254 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: a candidate formally who did things his own way and 255 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 1: full all you know, kind of old all of us 256 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: in terms of finding his way to the White House. 257 00:14:02,760 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 1: So time will tell whether or not this will ultimately 258 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: hurt him. Uh. In the meantime, it's an incredible read, 259 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: great reporting, Josh as always, and I gottas the picture 260 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: connected with the story that's in the magazine, it's online. Yeah, 261 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: it's a little jar, it's a little makes me a 262 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: little look at me go, Please stop, please stop, um, 263 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: of course. Josh Greeny, National correspondent, Bloomberg Business Week on 264 00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: the phone from Washington, and our thanks to Joel Weber, 265 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week, editor on the phone in Massachusetts. This 266 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly 267 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. We love talking to Andy Brown. He 268 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: is the editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy, always looking 269 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 1: at the whole world. Are expert on China, he joins 270 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: us on the phone from New Hampshire. I do want 271 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: to start, maybe in an unconventional way, though, Andy, if 272 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: I may. I know you've been in New Hampshire now 273 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: for a number of months. What does this all look 274 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: like from there? What does you mean? What does the 275 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 1: trade war? And what does what does this crisis look like? 276 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: The shutdown everything? Because I realized that we haven't really 277 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: talked to you about that element, sort of from a 278 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: personal and professional perspective, because you know, we hear from 279 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: all these folks across the country, and um, I wonder 280 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: what it looks like from your perspective, especially given how 281 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: in touch you are with the rest of the world. Yeah, so, um, 282 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: I don't know from my from my vantage point here 283 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: in Sunnopy, New Hampshire, it seems that the United States 284 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: has forgotten about the pandemic. Everybody's coming here on holiday. Uh, 285 00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: nobody is wearing a face mask. Nobody seems to be 286 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: thinking about social distancing. Um. The good news, I guess, 287 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: is that Americans are traveling again. And we were just 288 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: talking actually the New New Economy Forum with the the 289 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: h air BnB CEO just a couple of days ago, 290 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: thinking us the business for airbnb, um is roaring back. Um. 291 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: I gotta say though, I mean, overall, the rest of 292 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 1: the world is looking at the United States, the lack 293 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 1: of face must, the lack of social distancing, the lack 294 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: of a coordinated government response to this, and shaking its 295 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 1: head and saying, you know, how, how how is this? 296 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 1: How is this possible? Particularly in Asia where this is 297 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: just sort of it's a reflex. Now it's a social reflex. 298 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 1: People don't need to be told. And of course we're 299 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 1: seeing this now in Europe, which is about to take 300 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 1: a decision on on on on reopening and who's going 301 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 1: to come in And I'm afraid it looks like the 302 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 1: United States is not going to be on that list, 303 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: but China will be. And that's going to be a 304 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: huge deal if if Europe closes its stores to American 305 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: travelers but opens them to the Chinese. God like, you 306 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 1: can't even get your head around something like that. You know, 307 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: I love your column, and I'm going to just you know, 308 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: kind of switch gears a little bit, because, you know, 309 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: we all tweeted out the pictures of the impact that 310 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: the global pandemic had on our environment. Right, we had 311 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: a respite, We had clearer and bluers guys around the world. 312 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: We were seeing, you know, mountains that we hadn't seen 313 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 1: for a while. We talked about the skies in China 314 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,840 Speaker 1: that are certainly known, you know for being um, very 315 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: very polluted, and we've got to break but that's changed again. 316 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 1: And you write about this Andy in your column, Um, 317 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,080 Speaker 1: how China is once again kind of retreating on climate 318 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: change and what the impact of that will be, not 319 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: just on our environment, but on its relationship again with 320 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 1: the West, already a troubled relationship with the West. Talked 321 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 1: to us a little bit about that. Yeah, so so, 322 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,719 Speaker 1: having lived in China for for for decades, I've kind 323 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,160 Speaker 1: of seen previous episodes of this. And you know where 324 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: where suddenly Beijing soot filled skies turned blue. And when 325 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: they turned blue, Beijing is one of the most beautiful 326 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: cities in the world. Um, you know, the first time, 327 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: China was hoping to host the Olympic Games, and an 328 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 1: inspection committee from the Olympics came in and the government 329 00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:00,040 Speaker 1: ordered all the coal boil at COALFI had boilers to 330 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,360 Speaker 1: turn off, and the city shivered for a couple of days, 331 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: but the sky's turned blue. And then something similar happened 332 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 1: during the Olympics in two thousand and eight. And we've seen, 333 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 1: as you say, something quite similar just a few months 334 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: ago where the Chinese economy went into lockdown and all 335 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: of those coal fired power stations all around Beijing that 336 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: belt smoke into the Chinese capitol um you know, shut 337 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,880 Speaker 1: off and suddenly, you know, you had this what now 338 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 1: people now call Olympic Blue. Unfortunately, every one of these 339 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,199 Speaker 1: episodes has been fleeting uh and it's proved to be 340 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 1: the case in the latest episode, where you know, the 341 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 1: Chinese economy is now is now roaring back to life. 342 00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: Carbon emissions are where they were before the lockdown, and 343 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 1: the worst of it is that things that covered emissions 344 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: are about to spike even higher. And this is because 345 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,399 Speaker 1: China is going back. Local governments are going back to 346 00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: the tried and tested way of of of kicking off 347 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: GDP growth build coal fire power stations, and and the 348 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: tension here, I think this is rarely going to set 349 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: up a whole new area of tension with the West 350 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 1: because because most of the West or much of the 351 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: West is heading in exactly the opposite direction. You know, 352 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: Britain hasn't burned a lump of coal in weeks and weeks. 353 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 1: It's the longest period without coal since the Industrial Revolution, 354 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 1: you know, in in the eighteen in the eighteen eighties. Um, 355 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: the United States this year is going to be is 356 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: going to be producing more power from renewables than coal 357 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 1: for the first time ever, you know, the first first 358 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 1: time in in in in in years and years. And 359 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:44,640 Speaker 1: you know it's Sweden, Austria. They're going to close down 360 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: their last coal power you know stations. It doesn't really 361 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: matter because China burns half the world's coal, and so 362 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: you know, uh, it's neither here nor there. What happens 363 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:59,480 Speaker 1: of course in Sweden, in Austria, China burning more coal 364 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: is going to swamp all of those games. Hey, and 365 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 1: it just got like seconds here, so just quickly, I mean, 366 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: wouldn't these tensions have happened anyway just because the West 367 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,439 Speaker 1: is and has been for a while getting off of coal, 368 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: and China has not really showed any signs of slowing 369 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 1: just quickly. You're you're, you're right. But I think it's 370 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: just the stock divergence now where you know, coal is 371 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 1: is really disappearing from the grids in western countries and 372 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: in China it's making comma and will be exported through 373 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 1: the Belt and Road initiatives. So you're going to get 374 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: coal fired power stations, fleets of these all over pristine 375 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 1: sections of Central Asia other parts of the developing world. 376 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 1: China is the largest financier of minds and power stations 377 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: in the developing world. It's just a reminder why we 378 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: do need everybody on the global stage to be talking 379 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: with one another, especially the big powers, whether it's China, 380 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: whether it's the United States or guess what's not happening 381 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 1: that at that talking is not happening right now? All right, 382 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 1: Andy Brown, thank you so much keeping us honest on 383 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 1: all things with the Bloomberg New economy. Journing us on 384 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: the phone from New Hampshire, brother Journal. But you let 385 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll 386 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: do the riding velvet me. I want to drive, Just drive, baby, questions, trying. 387 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: This is the drive to the globe community. Thanks, we'll 388 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: drying us on Bloomberg Radio, and it is time for 389 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,200 Speaker 1: the drive to the clothes back with us. Ryan Dietrich, 390 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: senior market strategist at LPL Financial, looking after about six 391 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,679 Speaker 1: hundred seventy billion dollars that firm is, He joins us 392 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: on the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Ryan, always good 393 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 1: to have you back with Carol and myself. And I'm 394 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: gonna start where I always start with you, which is 395 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: what's going on down in Charlotte. How is this all 396 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: looking from your perspective? Personally? I feel like the last 397 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: time we talked, keep me honest here you were talking about, 398 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:18,040 Speaker 1: you know, maybe some youth sports starting up again, and 399 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,960 Speaker 1: you're sort of getting back a little bit. I wonder 400 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: what's happened in the in the meantime, Hey, Jason A, Carol, 401 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: thank you guys for having me back. Right um, you know, 402 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,800 Speaker 1: just tonight in a couple of hours, my son Sebastian 403 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 1: has a baseball game, and tomorrow night, my son Gus 404 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:36,400 Speaker 1: is a soccer game. So we're slowly getting it. It's weird, 405 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 1: you know, because they don't have dugouts, the kids are 406 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,120 Speaker 1: all staying with the parents, we're all six ft apart um. 407 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 1: You know, there's no high fives and things like that. 408 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: So there's some parts of normalcy coming back. But I 409 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: still go to the office every once in a while 410 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 1: and there's still there's nobody on the road. Still, it's 411 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: still there's a ghost town, it seems like from that 412 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: point of view. But I guess just the fact that 413 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: the kids sports are slowly starting up, and honestly, we 414 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,280 Speaker 1: are in South Carolina, so thin there's we all know 415 00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: we're a little more laxed. Maybe I guess that some 416 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 1: of the things going on and they really that's right 417 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:06,880 Speaker 1: or wrong. And you look at some of the numbers 418 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: that we can get into. It is scary because I 419 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 1: don't necessarily know anyone that has it. But at the 420 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: same time, we see the numbers and it's it continues 421 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 1: to go higher. But we are getting some normalcy back 422 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: here um watching our kids play some sports, right, So 423 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 1: we're getting to do that, which does make us feel 424 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:23,639 Speaker 1: more normal. But when you look at the markets, the 425 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: bounce back that we've had, and then you look at 426 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: the economic data points, the earnings projections, something we just 427 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 1: talked about with Dave Wilson that there seems to be, 428 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,199 Speaker 1: you know, more companies coming out and being more optimistic 429 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: about their earnings outlook. You know, does it make you 430 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 1: feel more positive about the financial markets or more cautionary 431 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: considering the bounce back that we've had already? Yeah, Carol, 432 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 1: I guess we'd be a little more cautious because came on, 433 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: you guys in April and May. We were quite bolish then, 434 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,479 Speaker 1: and that's when everything was bad, right, all the all 435 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,280 Speaker 1: the negativity out there. Wouldn't it be something if after 436 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 1: this forty plus per cent and route that we've had, 437 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 1: now the ECONO lo at the housing data today, my goodness. 438 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: I mean, most of the data we're seeing is coming 439 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: in much better than expected. Wouldn't it be something of 440 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: This is kind of where the market takes a break, 441 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 1: and I love it. But I will say, just like 442 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 1: Jillianish in late to our Bloomberg Economics economists, she said, 443 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 1: after I said, wow, look at that number, she goes, yeah, 444 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: but it's after two months where we fell off a cliff. 445 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 1: So we have to you can't just look at one 446 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: month data point. You've got to look at it in context. 447 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,160 Speaker 1: Of what the economic backdrop and environment have been over 448 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: the last couple of months, right exactly. I mean mostly 449 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,439 Speaker 1: the economic data points two months prior were some of 450 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: the worst we've ever seen. You're coming off historically historically 451 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: low levels, but it's still a positive thing. But at 452 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 1: the same time, look at history. You know, March A 453 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 1: two thousand three major market low, rallied like mad for 454 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 1: a few months, consolidated in the summer. March at two 455 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 1: thousand nine, major market low, huge proby for a few months, 456 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: consolidated in the summer. Here we are once again that 457 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,159 Speaker 1: month of March. Obviously, we know we've had one of 458 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 1: the greatest three months rallies in history here and and 459 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,440 Speaker 1: we think it makes sense. Would Mark Twain say history 460 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. Maybe markets to consolidate, maybe 461 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: even pull back, which wouldn't be that bad after rally, 462 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 1: and then eventually worked away higher. That's what happened in 463 00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 1: two thousand three and two thousand nine. We wouldn't be 464 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,719 Speaker 1: shocked at alf it happened once again. So Ryan, you know, 465 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 1: we caught up with Josh Green are fantastic National correspondent 466 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,160 Speaker 1: for a Business week earlier in the show and he 467 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: was reminding us. Not that we necessarily needed a reminding, 468 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 1: but I feel like some folks do. It is a 469 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 1: presidential election year. We are moving closer and closer. You 470 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: guys down around the Charlotte area are all too aware 471 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: of some of the politics around conventions and and and whatnot. Um, 472 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,439 Speaker 1: but it is a presidential election here. I do wonder 473 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: how soon you start to factor that into your investment 474 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 1: calculus or are you already Yeah, We're not quite practical 475 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,720 Speaker 1: quite yet, because clearly what the market is wanting to 476 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:57,639 Speaker 1: see is to reopen time. We know that, right. The 477 00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 1: data continues to show more and more cases. But the 478 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 1: re opening is what Mr stock markets really excited about. 479 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,640 Speaker 1: But you mentioned the the the election, and interestingly enough, 480 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: the stock market is one of the best indicators we 481 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 1: have for who's gonna win that election. We took a 482 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 1: look and if you look at how the stock market 483 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: does by the spid, if it's up three months before 484 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: the incoming party tends to win, and if it's down 485 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 1: three months before the election, incoming party tends to lose, 486 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: it's been right every single time since eighty four higher. 487 00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 1: It's been right eighty seven percent of the time. Twenty 488 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,320 Speaker 1: and twenty three times come back to So the reality 489 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: of fact is when that clock starts here. Depending on 490 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 1: where you are, how stocks are doing, you might give 491 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 1: that clue as to who will win the election in 492 00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 1: November and be in the White House next January. Ryan, 493 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: what's more important to the markets though? Is it the election? 494 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,119 Speaker 1: Is it the virus and the economy getting back on track? 495 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:51,119 Speaker 1: I mean, is it or is it both? And they're connected? Yeah, Well, 496 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,679 Speaker 1: we think at this point it is the virus, right, 497 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 1: I mean we think if you live at the numbers, 498 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 1: we know it's the surgeon cases. We get it. But 499 00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: the surgeon hospital stays is starting to trickle higher. But no, 500 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: we will We saw in April unfortunately the number of 501 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,640 Speaker 1: death and I know death lagged the cases, but still 502 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: we're not seeing those. I mean, we'll see much more 503 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: ready to fight this, I think, and we do things. 504 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 1: The market is. The stock market is telling us, you 505 00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,959 Speaker 1: know that maybe there could be better economic data had 506 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 1: the second half of this year, but its anything we've 507 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,880 Speaker 1: learned this year, it's the economy of stock. Markets don't 508 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,159 Speaker 1: always died. In fact, they haven't drive it all much 509 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,439 Speaker 1: this year. So again kind of like my big teams earlier. 510 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: Maybe the economy are better than the market takes a break, 511 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 1: but there's no question to leave it. Closer to the election, 512 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,000 Speaker 1: we're gonna start breaking all those things down. But I 513 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,440 Speaker 1: always pointed now as the president Trump want everyone thought 514 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,680 Speaker 1: Steal and Cole would do very well. They happened. I mean, 515 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,880 Speaker 1: it's never so obvious as to what's going to happen. 516 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 1: If everyone's talking about it's probably priced. Then we've had 517 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,879 Speaker 1: bear markets and the bowl markets and Republicans and Democrats. 518 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: At the end of the day, the economy is doing 519 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,640 Speaker 1: is what matters more. And the economic keeps opening up. Hey, 520 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 1: it might not matter who's in the White House, and 521 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 1: we still see this. Markets are higher in one that's 522 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: very true. All right, Gonna leave with there. Ryan Dietrich, 523 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 1: thank you so much, Senior Market Strategies at LPL Financial 524 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,960 Speaker 1: six d seventy billion in in assets under management. On 525 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 1: the phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks so much for 526 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, Southcloud, 527 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, or wherever you get your podcasts, And 528 00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 1: of course you can always listen to our radio show 529 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:15,959 Speaker 1: at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us 530 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 1: on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News