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Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you happy? Monday? Welcome into

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Speaker 1: a new episode of the Daily Juice podcast with me

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Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. You guys can follow me across all my

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Speaker 1: socials at Sports Talk Matt, and we are back after

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Speaker 1: a very good Sunday. So I know the week did

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Speaker 1: not start off very well. We went zero to eight

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Speaker 1: to start, but this is a tremendous example and lesson

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Speaker 1: about what this podcast is all about. We can get

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Speaker 1: some really good bets right, we can get some really

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Speaker 1: good bets wrong. But we're back every day and eventually

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Speaker 1: it kind of evens out because by my math, after

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Speaker 1: all of this, Harmon comes in in the top twenty.

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Speaker 1: That's four units. Morikawa wins outright, that's two and a

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Speaker 1: half units. We get Team USA for the men to

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Speaker 1: win on the puck line. Ford could have one day,

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Speaker 1: Tona Toyota wind up winning because of a huge wreck.

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Speaker 1: We almost got there, and Stepstraca was just on their side.

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Speaker 1: He came in second. Stepstraka came in second place, so

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Speaker 1: if he didn't, if if Morikawa didn't win, Straka could

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Speaker 1: have won. We were right there with both those both

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Speaker 1: those golfers. We picked it right twenty two under and

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Speaker 1: twenty one under a three and two record, we go

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Speaker 1: up five point eight seven units. So when you couple

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Speaker 1: that with the fact that we were up over two

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Speaker 1: and a half units Saturday and we get Dame Lillard,

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Speaker 1: we hit some really good plus money. Dame Lillard to win,

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Speaker 1: Harmon top twenty Morikawa to win. We hit some really

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Speaker 1: good bets. And so by my math, we were down

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Speaker 1: point two units. So is it a losing week. I

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Speaker 1: mean yeah, but we're right back to where we were

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Speaker 1: essentially at the start of the week. And that's the

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Speaker 1: ebbs and flows of this and that really is what

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Speaker 1: sports betting. That's a nutshell of what sports gambling is.

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Speaker 1: It is about runs is a you know, it's about

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Speaker 1: trusting the process. You know. I have talked about this

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Speaker 1: book a ton, but I think it's such a unique

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Speaker 1: and special and important part of gambling when you do this.

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Speaker 1: So there's gonna be the bros who are going to

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Speaker 1: jump in here on a Monday and Tuesday and this

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Speaker 1: guy sucks. How does he have a job? And then

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be people gonna come in on Friday, Saturday

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Speaker 1: and Sunday and think that I've just discovered. You know,

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Speaker 1: I have the mightest touch and everything is golden, and

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna hit these bets like this. I'm gonna hit

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Speaker 1: plus five to one bets every damn day. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: knock down these five to one. It's just out and

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Speaker 1: how it goes. But the process is what matters, Anie Duke.

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Speaker 1: It's a great book, Thinking Bets. It's so much about

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Speaker 1: the process. Do you trust the process? How did you

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Speaker 1: get here? Because essentially sports betting, it's fifty four fifty

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Speaker 1: five percent. It's what we're gunning for here. Okay, that

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Speaker 1: means I'm going to be wrong forty six percent of

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Speaker 1: the time. I'm going to bet one hundred and there's

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Speaker 1: going to be forty six or forty seven of those

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Speaker 1: bets that are going to be wrong. So when did

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Speaker 1: you hop in? When did you cherry pick? When did

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Speaker 1: you decide to be a casual? Because that will dictate

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Speaker 1: your comments, that will dictate your opinion. If I get

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Speaker 1: one bet right a week more one that can change everything.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we're trying to do with our betting

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Speaker 1: pros tools. We're trying to get you to win one

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Speaker 1: more bet every single week that you like not just

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Speaker 1: what I like, but what you like. That's what we're doing,

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Speaker 1: and that is why we make this offer to you,

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Speaker 1: to give you a litany of tools in tools to

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Speaker 1: go and research your own plays in your own bets,

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Speaker 1: so you don't just have to follow mine. You guys

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Speaker 1: could actually go and find things that make sense to you.

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Speaker 1: The propbet cheat sheet, it's giving you hundreds of props

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Speaker 1: every day. I'm just picking one or two that I like.

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Speaker 1: You may find a million more. You may know your

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Speaker 1: team better than me. Like if you're a Charlotte Hornets fan,

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Speaker 1: maybe you know way more about the Hornets than I do.

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Speaker 1: And the prop bet cheat sheets is going to show

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Speaker 1: you some stuff that make either confirm or deny your

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Speaker 1: bias based upon a play. But that prop bet cheat

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Speaker 1: sheet could lead you to a profitable run and a

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Speaker 1: profitable trend that nobody else saw because you know your team.

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot Com slash Juice twenty takes twenty percent off

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Speaker 1: I think it's very very cool. I'd be using it

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Speaker 1: for now, multiple years now. I'd be using it in

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Speaker 1: particular with the NBA. And after the All Star break,

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Speaker 1: that's when things get real because now we're into the

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Speaker 1: playoff chase and we're not seeing as many players be

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Speaker 1: sat down and guess who is going to show up?

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Speaker 1: Jason Tatum put out a video last night about his

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Speaker 1: recovery and his return to the NBA after Jalen Brown

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Speaker 1: went and showed out during the All Star Game. Here

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Speaker 1: comes our guy, Here comes Jason Tatum back to the NBA.

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Speaker 1: I got only two bets for us today, one in

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Speaker 1: college basketball and one in women's hockey. We have not

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Speaker 1: bet the women's side of hockey, but we're gonna go

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Speaker 1: ahead and jump on that. Those are the only two

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Speaker 1: plays I really like. I might add something later, if

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Speaker 1: something pops on the screen, maybe I'll jump been on it.

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Speaker 1: But there's just nothing out there right now. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to force it. I don't want to go and say, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's bet this, because you know we have to. I

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Speaker 1: don't really know what to do with some of these

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Speaker 1: other games. And since the men's tournament has taken a

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Speaker 1: day off and we get games on Tuesday, the women's

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Speaker 1: is kind of it for us when it comes to

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Speaker 1: Olympic hockey. We've done really well with Olympic hockey. So

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Speaker 1: let's jump in with the women. But first and foremost,

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Speaker 1: Hard Rock Bet. They are the presenting sponsor of the

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice podcast. Yes, I know it could be tough

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Speaker 1: here as we try to get through the doldrums with

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Speaker 1: no football, but we do have basketball, we do have

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Speaker 1: college hoops, we have the Olympics. We've got a bunch

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Speaker 1: of stuff coming down the pike, the Orlando Magic and

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Speaker 1: first deposit to day. Okay, let's start with college basketball.

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Speaker 1: Houston is taking on Iowa State Duke and Syracuse is

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Speaker 1: the other game, but the line's twenty. I have no

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Speaker 1: interest in that game, but Houston against Iowa State could

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Speaker 1: be an absolute barn burner. Iowa State coming off of

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Speaker 1: a really big win over Kansas over the weekend, and

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Speaker 1: the total for this game is set at one thirty four,

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Speaker 1: So this is interesting these two teams. The last five

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Speaker 1: games for Houston have gone under the last three games

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Speaker 1: for Iowa State have gone under seventeen and a half,

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Speaker 1: thirty and a half and ten and a half for

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Speaker 1: Iowa State. That's the margin to go under over their

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Speaker 1: last three games for Houston little less two twenty three

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Speaker 1: and a half, eight and a half, thirteen and five

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Speaker 1: and a half. But that's still most of those games

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Speaker 1: are by you know, three, two, three or more possessions

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Speaker 1: to go unders. Not very close. One thirty four and

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Speaker 1: a hal One thirty four though, is you know, one

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Speaker 1: thirty four, one thirty four and a half. Bring in

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Speaker 1: the book you're looking at. This is a pretty interesting number.

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Speaker 1: So let's just go through the last five games. The

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Speaker 1: totals have all gone under for Houston one thirty five

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Speaker 1: and a half one forty seven, one fifty one and

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Speaker 1: a half, one forty one and a half in one

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Speaker 1: forty four for Iowa State one fifty one and a half,

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Speaker 1: one forty seven and a half in one forty seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. According to KEMPOM, this is going to

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Speaker 1: be a one thirty seven total. Yet the total is

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Speaker 1: said at one thirty four. My guess is this number

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Speaker 1: is not going to close at one thirty four or

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Speaker 1: one thirty four and a half. Why well, Iowa State

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Speaker 1: shoots a ton of threes. Iowa State shoots. They're the

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Speaker 1: fourth best three point shooting team in the country thirty

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Speaker 1: nine point eight when'ret when they're at Hilton Hilton Coliseum.

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Speaker 1: When they're playing at home, they jack threes. Thirty seven

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Speaker 1: point seven percent of their total offense is taken from

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Speaker 1: behind the three point line. So like they really do

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Speaker 1: look to shoot a lot of threes. They in terms

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Speaker 1: of point percentage of points, thirty two percent of their

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Speaker 1: points come from behind the three point line. For Houston,

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Speaker 1: thirty three point seven percent of the percent of their

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Speaker 1: points come from behind the three point line. So both

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Speaker 1: these teams shoot threes. Now, defensively, they're phenomenal Iowa State

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Speaker 1: is sixth in defensive efficiency. Houston's fifth in defensive efficiency.

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Speaker 1: Effective field goal percentage Iowa State is fifty third, Houston

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Speaker 1: is eleventh. Okay, like that. These are very good teams,

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Speaker 1: but off offensively, they're both incredibly efficient. Houston their twelfth

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Speaker 1: in offensive efficiency. Iowa State is seventeenth in effective field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage, Iowa State's eleventh. Now Houston's one hundred and

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Speaker 1: thirty six. But they don't turn the basketball over, and

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Speaker 1: they do turn you over a ton defensively. Two point

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Speaker 1: shooting wise, three point shooting wise, they're okay, but they

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Speaker 1: hit their free throws. Iowa State does not hit their

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Speaker 1: free throws. That's kind of a bad for betting overs.

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Speaker 1: That's not great, but we have. This is a really

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Speaker 1: low total, one thirty four for Iowa State and for

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Speaker 1: Houston in a primetime game at Hilton Coliseum on a

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Speaker 1: day where the kids don't have school and they get

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Speaker 1: to pregame the entire time. Hilton is going to be rocking.

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Speaker 1: I expect this atmosphere to be electric. I like Iowa

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Speaker 1: State to win, but I like the over more over

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Speaker 1: one thirty four Iowa State in Houston for one point

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Speaker 1: one units. I mentioned that I wanted to bet the

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Speaker 1: women's tournament for US, say Sweden in the Olympics. Sweden

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Speaker 1: has been pretty good this year. This is the semi final,

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Speaker 1: so the winner of this game goes to the gold

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Speaker 1: medal game, where most likely it's going to be USA

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Speaker 1: Canada for both the men and the women. But Team

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Speaker 1: USA has been rolling five to one, five nothing, five

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Speaker 1: to nothing, five to nothing, six nothing. They only covered

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Speaker 1: four and a half though. Check the Czech Republic and

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Speaker 1: their opener. They won five to one. Then they covered

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Speaker 1: the last next three games at five nothing and then

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Speaker 1: six nothing. But they only scored more than five goals

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Speaker 1: one time. Okay, only one time, so I don't hate

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Speaker 1: an underplay. But can Sweden score a goal, just one goal?

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Speaker 1: I think they can. Sweden's five to zero in this tournament.

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Speaker 1: They have a plus eighteen goal differential, and I think

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Speaker 1: USA scores five Sweden scores one. The game most likely

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Speaker 1: goes under six and a half with a five to

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Speaker 1: one final, but Team USA does not cover the four

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Speaker 1: and a half. Sweden plus four and a half is

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Speaker 1: plus money. I think it's worth it. I think it's

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Speaker 1: worth the flyer to jump in here. That this is

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Speaker 1: a huge game for Sweden obviously, and they have been

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Speaker 1: very good in this tournament, not as good as the Americans.

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Speaker 1: Do we need the Americans to lose this game? No?

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Speaker 1: Do we like this? I mean Sweden could be you know,

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Speaker 1: in the game potentially, Like I don't know. I'm a

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Speaker 1: little surprised to see this number at four and a half,

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Speaker 1: just because it was five and a half at one point,

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Speaker 1: because I just think that Sweden's got a shot. I

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Speaker 1: think that they got a shot to score and potentially

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Speaker 1: get this game, you know, five to one, four to

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Speaker 1: two finals, somewhere even six to two final for US

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Speaker 1: on this just needs Sweden to score. So both teams

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Speaker 1: to score is minus one zho five. But I can't

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Speaker 1: get that market in Vague. But if you have that

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Speaker 1: market in your town, both teams to score as mine

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Speaker 1: one oh five. I like that, both teams to score.

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Speaker 1: I like that. You can add on that if you

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Speaker 1: would like. But for today, just two plays for US.

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Speaker 1: We're going Iowa State in Houston over one thirty four

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Speaker 1: and Sweden plus four and a half goals on the

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Speaker 1: puck line at plus one thirty for one unit. The

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Speaker 1: Monday Tuesday Wednesday. Starts to the week have not been great,

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Speaker 1: so I'm gonna turtle a little bit and be having

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Speaker 1: kind of a smaller card until we get to Tuesday. Wednesday. Thursday,

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Speaker 1: we get back into the NBA and we get some

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Speaker 1: hockey for the gold medal or the Metal Round for

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Speaker 1: the men. We'll get that coming up. Team USA coming

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Speaker 1: up later in the week as well, So we're looking

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Speaker 1: to jump in on Canada and USA and other stuff

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Speaker 1: later in the week, but for today, let's keep it small.

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Speaker 1: Just two bets for us here on a Monday, and

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Speaker 1: as mattp. Parol to you, guys can follow me across

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Speaker 1: all my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning wherever

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Speaker 1: you guys get your podcasts. It is the Daily Juice

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Speaker 1: Pisissent from the Sun sunt County