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Speaker 1: Two twenty five as the weight.

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Speaker 2: We got a love one knock it out. We're talking

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Speaker 2: Alvin Kamara.

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Speaker 3: I didn't know much about him and I put his

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Speaker 3: tape in and I almost fell over him.

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Speaker 2: Two hundred and thirty three pounds forty one inch vertical twenty

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Speaker 2: nine on the bench press.

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Speaker 1: That's a creative player on.

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Speaker 2: Matt Wow, I mean that is just nutty.

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Speaker 4: I saw two of three scouts look at their style

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Speaker 4: watch and show other scouts as if, hey, did you

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Speaker 4: get that?

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Speaker 1: Am I reading this right?

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Speaker 4: Where you go?

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 2: our friends at bet MGM, the King of sports books.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host today, Brendan Glasheen. We are getting set

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Speaker 2: for the NFL Draft April twenty fifth through the twenty seventh.

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Speaker 2: Here to join me to discuss and how to properly

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Speaker 2: get ready to bet the NFL Draft. Whatever market number

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Speaker 2: one pick, player, position, picks over under selections based on

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Speaker 2: where a guy might fall in the draft. Evan Abrams

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Speaker 2: over at Action Network, the director of Research and Media,

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Speaker 2: and we have Travis Reid of bet laps joining us.

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Speaker 2: He was with us last year for this episode. Really

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Speaker 2: enjoyed it last season, fellas, let's dive in plenty to

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Speaker 2: discuss a quick overview looking at early market offerings. We'll

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Speaker 2: start with the softball, Evan Abrams. You joined us last

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Speaker 2: year after the first round, I remember correctly, and we

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Speaker 2: dove in on some end of quarter quarterbacks late in

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Speaker 2: the draft, second third round guys, possibly going into Day two,

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Speaker 2: day three. How is betting the draft, Evan Abrams in

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Speaker 2: your eyes different from other markets, and you can keep

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Speaker 2: that strictly to the NFL.

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Speaker 4: Well, as Matt and Mitchell does like to say, in

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Speaker 4: this situation, with this example, you do have the answers

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Speaker 4: to the test when in gambling, it's obviously a game

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Speaker 4: that needs to be played in a lot that goes

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Speaker 4: into it. So information is good if it's right, and

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Speaker 4: that's probably the best way to explain it, because there

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Speaker 4: there's so much different information. And I'll be honest with you,

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Speaker 4: and I think Travis might agree with me. Twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: four is going to be harder than twenty three, which

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Speaker 4: was harder than twenty two, because it doesn't make it

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Speaker 4: easier easy with all these different aggregator accounts, all these

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Speaker 4: different people making up news, and all these different stories

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Speaker 4: that basically try to fill news on a daily basis.

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Speaker 4: It's a consistent log of pump fakes is probably.

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Speaker 1: The way that I would put it.

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Speaker 4: I'll just use one easy example. This is we are

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Speaker 4: recording this on February twenty sixth. It is a Monday.

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Speaker 4: Things are starting to boil. And when you talk about

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Speaker 4: Drake May, so three completely independent pieces of information. You

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Speaker 4: would have one piece of information that he had this

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Speaker 4: eighty yard pass that made him look like you know,

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Speaker 4: the Zach Wilson throw for everyone who remembers that one,

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Speaker 4: and he had eighty yard pass through the uprights. It's viral,

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Speaker 4: it's gone everywhere. People are falling in love with him.

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Speaker 4: Then you've got mock drafts that have him land third

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Speaker 4: to the Patriots, which makes sense. And then with the

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Speaker 4: third piece of information, you have aggregators and people like

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Speaker 4: Merril Hodge saying that Drake May would shouldn't go in.

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Speaker 1: The first round.

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Speaker 4: So you've got lots of different information kind of coming

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Speaker 4: from all different places. The best piece of advice is

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Speaker 4: to organize it and try to figure out what's right.

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Speaker 2: Travis Reed, If bet Labs joined us again this year, Travis,

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Speaker 2: do you echo the sentiments of Evan Abrams that this

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Speaker 2: year's draft as far as a betting perspective, is more

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Speaker 2: challenging than last year. You're dos and don'ts for.

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Speaker 3: This season, yeah, I and it's always tough this early.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to know more answers as we get closer

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Speaker 3: to the draft. One thing I guess a don't is

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Speaker 3: don't overreact to the combine that's coming up. A lot

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Speaker 3: of time we'll see huge numbers in the forty and

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Speaker 3: things like that, and people just lose their mind, Oh,

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Speaker 3: that guy's a first round pick. Now. Definitely don't do

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Speaker 3: that for the combine. I mostly want to look at

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Speaker 3: red flags more than you know, jump off the page numbers.

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Speaker 3: So if a guy doesn't do very well, that might

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Speaker 3: just okay, he's that might come off a lot of

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Speaker 3: boards for teams. So that's what I'm looking for in

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Speaker 3: the upcoming weeks. As far as the door don't, one

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Speaker 3: thing has just to do is in general is just

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Speaker 3: have plenty of outs these lines. Because the books don't

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Speaker 3: actually know what's going to happen. The lines are all

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Speaker 3: over the place, so make sure you have tons of

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Speaker 3: different outs because you'll see lines from for the exact

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Speaker 3: same bets that are just way there's just a huge

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Speaker 3: gambit of numbers that you that you can find.

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Speaker 2: I mean things that come to mind even last year

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Speaker 2: just from a news and notes standpoint, like CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 2: and the Wonderlick test and Will Levis sitting still with

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Speaker 2: his friends. We'll just leave it at that they were

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Speaker 2: friends in the draft room and not here getting his

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Speaker 2: name called. It reminded us a lot of Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 2: years back when he was taken at the end of

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Speaker 2: the first round, like all of that, And we hit

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Speaker 2: on this so much leading up the distinction between Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young and Will Levis and the day of it was

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Speaker 2: a freaking cluster figuring out where Will Levis would go

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Speaker 2: and CJ. Stroud ended up going to Houston with the

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Speaker 2: pick that they owned and moved up to get Will Anderson.

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Speaker 2: So so much changed starting from when we first chatted

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Speaker 2: in early February or late February when we did our

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Speaker 2: first episode last year into the build up. Evan, how

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Speaker 2: would you say draft betting has changed in recent years?

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Speaker 2: Just looking at markets and how to go about take

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Speaker 2: out the news element that's important, but just betting it

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Speaker 2: sure itself.

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Speaker 4: Well, Travis actually just hit on probably one of the

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Speaker 4: most important points. You have more books offering more lines

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Speaker 4: and more independent lines. You know, three hundred to one

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Speaker 4: might be one hundred to one might be fifty one

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Speaker 4: in different places. So I think on that aspect, as

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Speaker 4: long as you have the outs and you have the.

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Speaker 1: Ability to shop.

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Speaker 4: It's the draft season and even free agency season tends

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Speaker 4: to be a big op opportunity to make sure you

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Speaker 4: do have the ability to kind of shop around. Because

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Speaker 4: a line in a game that's three and a half

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Speaker 4: might be three. A total that's one seventy might be

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Speaker 4: one sixty nine, but you're not going to find that

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Speaker 4: much change.

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Speaker 1: But this it is completely different.

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Speaker 4: And also most people out there will understand there are

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Speaker 4: lots of minimums and maximums here right. You can't get

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Speaker 4: a lot down usually on some of these props, which

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Speaker 4: makes it a little bit more difficult. You know, you

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Speaker 4: can spread your wealth across, but it gets a little tricky.

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Speaker 4: So this isn't exactly handicapping. It's more of bankroll management

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Speaker 4: along with the news and information.

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Speaker 1: It's a tricky.

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Speaker 4: Thing when there's a lot of people out there that

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Speaker 4: absolutely love it because this is completely different than like

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Speaker 4: I said, handicapping a single game, which is you know,

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Speaker 4: a fun break after football season.

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Speaker 2: Good call out. Free agency starts March thirteenth, which is

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Speaker 2: two and a half weeks from the day we record

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Speaker 2: here Monday, February twenty sixth. Anything to add there, Travis,

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Speaker 2: Now you mentioned the combine, but just anything that you've

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Speaker 2: noted over the years, how it's changed and how it's

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Speaker 2: affected most for this coming April.

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Speaker 3: It's one other thing. It's definitely earlier. These lines were

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Speaker 3: never out this early. I mean there was first draft

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Speaker 3: picks in November. So because of that, I think it's

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Speaker 3: you want to like start to jump into it. Everybody does,

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Speaker 3: but I do think you do want to wait. You

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Speaker 3: mentioned free agency. Where do some of these quarterbacks land?

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Speaker 3: Where does Mike Evans land? Does if Mike Evans goes

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Speaker 3: to the Chiefs their odds of drafting receiver in the

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Speaker 3: first round are going to go down? Things like that,

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Speaker 3: So you want to kind of wait for some of

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Speaker 3: these things to land. Where does Russell Wilson go? You

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Speaker 3: know that may be a quarterback spot. Where does Justin

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Speaker 3: Fields gets traded? That's another quarterback spot. So you want

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Speaker 3: some of these things to start to get answered, so

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Speaker 3: you can start to really hone in on. Okay, I

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Speaker 3: think these are the landing spots for these positions and.

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Speaker 2: Not really breaking any news to the audience, but you know,

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Speaker 2: come on, folks, have looked at Tankathon, You've looked at

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Speaker 2: your favorite team and where you sit in the draft order,

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Speaker 2: and looking at the top ten all the talking heads

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Speaker 2: you listen to, there are a lot of teams in

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Speaker 2: that top ten, with the exception of one or two,

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Speaker 2: and you could kind of make a case for a

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Speaker 2: lot of them that need a quarterback. The Chargers don't

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Speaker 2: need a quarterback. Do the Giants make a change Arizona?

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Speaker 2: Do they stay with Kyler Murray? I think so, but

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Speaker 2: we don't really know yet. So of those teams, and

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Speaker 2: then you go to the teams Minnesota, Denver, Las Vegas,

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Speaker 2: they're all in the mix for a quarterback. And do

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Speaker 2: we see a Sam fran Miami kind of trade where

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins decide we're going to trade out of our pick.

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Speaker 2: Let Sam Frank come up as we saw in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one, to go up and get Trey Lance something

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Speaker 2: like that. Does that occur again this year? Those are

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Speaker 2: all questions that we need answers to before we have

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Speaker 2: a good feel for what the market might look like.

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Speaker 2: Let's kind of this is, of course, when folks tune

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Speaker 2: into the Action Network podcast to think, Okay, what can

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Speaker 2: I do right now? What can I bet? But maybe

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Speaker 2: the advice Evan is what should listeners do right now,

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Speaker 2: not just to make a bet, but what should they

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Speaker 2: be keeping a keen eye on right now?

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Speaker 4: I mean, listen for betters right this second. It's probably

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Speaker 4: trying to disseminate accurate information and figuring out, Okay, let's

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Speaker 4: take a few long shots. You know when I say

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Speaker 4: that the fifty to ones the sixty to ones. In

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Speaker 4: my opinion, that's what I'm doing at this point. It's

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Speaker 4: trying to figure out a piece of information and saying, Okay, well,

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Speaker 4: if this trade goes down, maybe.

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Speaker 1: This is possible. I'm not investing a lot right now.

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Speaker 1: I'm being honest with you.

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Speaker 4: The example of last year where it was we were

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Speaker 4: on this podcast and we hit that Michael Mayer to

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Speaker 4: the Raiders bet like the longer I wait and the.

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Speaker 2: Most record that was a just quickly for the record

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Speaker 2: for the audience. That was a night. The conclusion of

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Speaker 2: Night one of the Draft end of April night one,

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Speaker 2: overnight into day two before day two started. That was

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Speaker 2: an overnight pick that you collectively came up with.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, because I think the longer you wait, the more

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Speaker 4: information you have, the more you can make educated decisions.

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Speaker 4: Now I completely understand that also, the more information other

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Speaker 4: people have, the more the line gets impacted and the

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Speaker 4: short of the odds could be. But at this point,

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Speaker 4: I'm willing to kind of take some of those shots

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Speaker 4: because I believe personally, I'm gonna take a long shot

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Speaker 4: that may not feel right at the moment, but I

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Speaker 4: see a path to the conclusion, and that night the

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Speaker 4: Raiders needed a tight end. He was I believe, twelve

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Speaker 4: or thirteen to one to go on that spot. Obviously

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Speaker 4: a ton of teams in that position, but I'll even

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Speaker 4: say I've hit more Michael Meyer's night before or day

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Speaker 4: before two days before than I have trying to figure

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Speaker 4: out where Blake Korn's going to go. Right now, there's

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Speaker 4: just too many obstacles in my way to try to

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Speaker 4: accurately predict that. Even if I'm gonna go ahead and say, okay,

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Speaker 4: he's one hundred to one here and two hundred to

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Speaker 4: one there, let's put ten bucks on both. I look back,

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Speaker 4: I look in three weeks and look back at those

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Speaker 4: bets and say, you know, they already picked up a

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Speaker 4: running back in free agency, and I can cross that

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Speaker 4: one off my list. That tends to happen to me

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Speaker 4: at least more than you know. Oh my god, I

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Speaker 4: nailed it.

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Speaker 1: Great one.

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Speaker 2: You know, markets for where quarterbacks will land talking not

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Speaker 2: NFL quarterbacks, college quarterbacks. Your bo Nix is your JJ

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Speaker 2: McCarthy's Michael Pennix. Number one pick market is available with

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Speaker 2: Caleb Williams, Drake May, Jaden Daniels, Marvin Harrison Junior all

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Speaker 2: at the top of the board, number one, number two,

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Speaker 2: number three available. Bet MGM has the first overall pick

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Speaker 2: available right now. So Travis, uh, what can listeners do

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Speaker 2: right now? What are you, Travis Reed, looking at on

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Speaker 2: February twenty six that you're keeping a close eye on

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Speaker 2: right now that you can actually look at it and say, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I have some information here that is valuable right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, one of the things you already do want to

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Speaker 3: be looking at mock drafts from you know, Daniel Jeremiah,

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Speaker 3: some of these big names, because you can start to

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Speaker 3: already get some of that information already. Okay, here's where

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Speaker 3: they think these guys are going early, A lot of

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Speaker 3: that's going to change. And this is none of this

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Speaker 3: is written in stone until it's actually handed in, but

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Speaker 3: it's just it's just to give you a good feeler. Okay,

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Speaker 3: now I kind of have this idea of Okay, I

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Speaker 3: didn't even think this guy was going to be in

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Speaker 3: the mix. Now he is, and then you can start

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Speaker 3: to do some research. Another good thing you can start

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Speaker 3: to do just make a list all the different beat

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Speaker 3: writers from each team that you want to start tracking,

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Speaker 3: and if you want to put that, you know, make

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Speaker 3: a separate list and that's your draft list to keep

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Speaker 3: track of. I think that's another good thing better just

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Speaker 3: can do right now, so then when you start to

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Speaker 3: go through that information, you can sift through it really quickly.

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Speaker 4: I love keeping track of GM coach tendencies in draft.

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Speaker 4: I use Pro Football Reference, which everyone has access to,

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Speaker 4: and a friend of mine on Twitter, Cleve ta Cleve Analytics,

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Speaker 4: has like a site that he created that has GM

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Speaker 4: tendencies dating back to two thousand. To me, some of

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Speaker 4: that stuff is interesting, especially when going back to see

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Speaker 4: like what they'd be willing to do and what they're

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Speaker 4: more likely to do in certain spots. So personally, I

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Speaker 4: found success in that just being like, Okay, you know

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Speaker 4: early in rounds, you know Ryan Poles goes offense, he

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Speaker 4: doesn't go defense. You know, maybe that's something to think about.

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Speaker 4: So I just bake a lot of stuff in. But

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Speaker 4: to me, you know where also filling needs is a.

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Speaker 1: Big part of it. But I definitely look at the tendencies.

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Speaker 2: That's a good point because last year I remember at

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Speaker 2: the end of the first round, that was something they

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Speaker 2: came into play with you back end defensive players for

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Speaker 2: your They don't apply this year because Cincinnati had a

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Speaker 2: down year with Borrow being out, But Cincinnati Cleveland was

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Speaker 2: another team that we kept a close eye on for

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Speaker 2: going secondary or going linebacker. At the end of the

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Speaker 2: first round. There are some diamonds in the roughs, some

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Speaker 2: more risks can be taken by teams that are contending

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Speaker 2: and the needs as you get closer to the end

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Speaker 2: of the first round, you can hone in on them

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Speaker 2: because they're good or they were good last year. So

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Speaker 2: in theory, they shouldn't have as many needs as a

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Speaker 2: team at the top of the draft because they weren't

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Speaker 2: very good sounds. Basically, it's important to keep in mind.

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Speaker 4: The other thing is this I'll ask I'll ask Travis

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Speaker 4: a question to be honest, Like, today you had news

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Speaker 4: about the Chargers letting Austin Eckler test free agency. Right,

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Speaker 4: you've got news that the Titans don't want to franchise

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Speaker 4: tag Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 2: To me, these are just add to that. Barkley and

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Speaker 2: Jacobs are also unlikely to get tagged too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: So like to me, though, each pillar of this news cycle,

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Speaker 4: especially when it's official news, right, like these aren't rumors.

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Speaker 4: This is exactly what tends to be happening. I'm making

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Speaker 4: note of all this stuff because to me, okay, chargers

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Speaker 4: have what Joshua Kelly like, They're most likely to try

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Speaker 4: to find a running back at some point. So if

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Speaker 4: I'm going to start to look at the markets and say,

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Speaker 4: like corn, whatever it ends up being, is this a possibility,

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Speaker 4: what do the odds look like? To me, trying to

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Speaker 4: fit the puzzle together is a way to find some

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Speaker 4: winning bets.

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Speaker 3: The core one is funny because I was looking at

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Speaker 3: that he's actually plus one seventy to go to the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: So everyone's going to put that puzzle piece together, like,

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Speaker 3: oh well, Jimar I was there, like he's going to

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Speaker 3: take a running back, So I think that's kind of

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Speaker 3: gone too far that way, But I definitely agree with

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Speaker 3: the sentiment. You know, they're you know, maybe a different

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Speaker 3: running back to the chargers will make sense once those

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Speaker 3: markets come out, especially if you can get value of Okay,

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Speaker 3: he takes somebody over like Orham because nobody would see

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Speaker 3: that coming, so that would be a long shot type bet.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, looking at these I where does Saquan sign?

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Speaker 3: Where does Jacob sign? That's going to knock off some

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Speaker 3: of the needs for the teams as well. Also, it's

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Speaker 3: good to look at similar bets at the same book.

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Speaker 3: I was looking at one today. Jayden Daniels was plus

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Speaker 3: one thirty to be the second pick, but he was

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Speaker 3: plus two hundred to get drafted by Washington, which is

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Speaker 3: essentially the same bet at the same book. So definitely

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Speaker 3: look around at some of these markets because they're they're

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Speaker 3: independent of each other. Just because the line moves at one,

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Speaker 3: it may not move in another, so you can still

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Speaker 3: get some value there.

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Speaker 2: This podcast is proudly presented by bet MGM used Bonus

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler another market. That's fascinating.

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Speaker 2: You both mentioned Justin Fields or one of you did earlier.

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Speaker 2: Who selects who you know? What team uses the number

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Speaker 2: one pick is that the Bears or the field. The

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Speaker 2: field right now is plus four hundred. Like that's interesting too.

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Speaker 2: If the Bears do indeed hold on to Justin Fields,

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Speaker 2: who know? I'm sure people have heard he unfollowed the

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Speaker 2: Bears and the NFL because that will keep him away

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Speaker 2: from any news going to his cell phone right he

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Speaker 2: just now he'll he is completely separated from the noise

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Speaker 2: thanks to his unfollowing on Instagram. It's a good foreing.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, my assumption is based off of that information. I

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Speaker 4: think the Bears are going to take Caleb Williams.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 2: That's my personal problem to take to end the first

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Speaker 2: episode of the Drug.

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Speaker 4: That's something I just don't think anything crazy is going

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Speaker 4: to happen there because I think they need to take

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Speaker 4: the franchise quarterback. They have the pick Fields. We've seen

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Speaker 4: it he I mean five and twenty four. Whatever it is,

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Speaker 4: Blame it on whoever you want, but at this point,

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Speaker 4: it's worth resetting the money cycle to get a guy

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Speaker 4: on his rookie contract. And even if you whiff, okay,

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Speaker 4: that's fine. Field wasn't going to be the answer anyway.

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Speaker 4: And if he goes to Atlanta and does great things, fine,

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Speaker 4: it doesn't matter. He wasn't going to do it in

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Speaker 4: Chicago in my opinion. So I think they're going to

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Speaker 4: keep the pick. If they traded, I would be personally

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Speaker 4: be personally surprised.

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Speaker 1: Travis, what do you think?

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Speaker 3: Caleb's as close as a lock as we can get

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Speaker 3: this early in the process for two months away. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: they have to do that. Like you said, there's even

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Speaker 3: a Field was really really good and you still you

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Speaker 3: only get the first pick every you know, granted they

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Speaker 3: got it twice two years ago. Normally normally that does

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Speaker 3: not happen, so you got to take advantage when you can.

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Speaker 3: They did really good on the Bryce Young trade last

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Speaker 3: year to give you this opportunity to take somebody like Caleb.

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Speaker 3: People were talking about Caleb, you know, two three years ago,

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Speaker 3: you know, trying to get to this spot. If you

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Speaker 3: have that spot, you gotta take them. So yeah, he's

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Speaker 3: the pick there right now. The consensus is QBQBQB, and

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Speaker 3: then Marvin Harrison Junior at four, and then the draft

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Speaker 3: really kind of starts at five. But we'll kind of see,

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Speaker 3: Like I said, it's still way too early and we'll

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Speaker 3: see how these dominoes start to fall.

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Speaker 4: So the number two pick to me is something where

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Speaker 4: I might take a long shot at some point soon.

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Speaker 1: Assuming if we are right and Caleb is number one.

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Speaker 4: I don't necessarily believe that the two three slot is

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Speaker 4: actually figured out yet because both those teams just need

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Speaker 4: so much, Like bringing in a quarterback at two or

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Speaker 4: bringing in a quarterback at three doesn't necessarily maybe fix

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Speaker 4: the issues on that team. So doing something with those

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Speaker 4: picks were like Marvin Harrison goes two or three, I

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Speaker 4: think at this point two months out is possible so

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Speaker 4: that's something I've been toying with a little bit.

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Speaker 2: Keep in mind, just the last thing, I'll say two

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Speaker 2: defensive head coaches at two and three and Dan Quinn

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Speaker 2: and Drod Mayo, and I'll leave it at that because

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I think if it was a Kyle Shanahan, hey,

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Speaker 2: I'll move up twelve picks a couple years ago and

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Speaker 2: go get my guy. It worked out in the long run,

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Speaker 2: didn't win the Super Bowl, but reached the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: But that's something to think about too. Would Mayo in

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Speaker 2: theory having some more say they have front offices, but

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Speaker 2: dan Quinn's been a head coach before and got there

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Speaker 2: with Matt Ryan a few years back. Now to the

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Speaker 2: super Bowl. But with defensive head coaches, do their organizational

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Speaker 2: philosophies change as opposed to an offensive play caller who

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Speaker 2: we just loved the shiny new toy that is a

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Speaker 2: top tier rookie quarterback. All Right, I think that's it

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Speaker 2: for this week, and I want to just add that

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Speaker 2: the news that we can deliver Adam Schefter moments ago

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Speaker 2: offseason stands in contrast to last year. Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley,

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Speaker 2: Tony Pollard, they appear they will not be tagged, so

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Speaker 2: that creates a lot of big names in the market

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Speaker 2: for the running backs that believe they matter or that

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Speaker 2: story last year. We'll find out what the market tells

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Speaker 2: us and what teams really think of them if they

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Speaker 2: go to free agency, which seems to be the case

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Speaker 2: for Evan Abrams, our director of Research Media at Action Network,

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Speaker 2: Travis Reed of bet Labs, Brendan Glasheen, Thanks for tuning in.

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Speaker 2: We have plenty more coming to the twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: NFL Draft at the end of April in Michigan. We

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Speaker 2: will discuss further. Keep an eye out here on the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast for more NFL Draft episodes. The Action

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Speaker 2: Network Podcast presented by BETMGM. Thanks for tuning in and

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Speaker 2: we'll talk to you real soon. Action Network reminds you

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Speaker 2: please gambler responsibly. If you or someone you care about

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