WEBVTT - What Does Trump’s Victory Mean for UK-US Relations? 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:07.440 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 0:00:12.760 --> 0:00:14.880 Welcome to the City of London, the. 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:17.320 City of the City, the City of London. 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:19.079 Bank. 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:20.960 Please mind the gap. 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:28.400 Between the true and the the financial hearts of the country, 0:00:29.920 --> 0:00:31.320 the city, the City. 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:33.760 Welcome to in the city. 0:00:35.040 --> 0:00:37.880 Stand clear of the doors. 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:42.400 So what does a Trump victory mean for UK US relations? 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:44.880 So welcome to the City of Podcasts from Bloomberg about 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:47.239 the story is important to the City of London. I'm 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:50.319 Francis Laqua and I'm alecro Stratton, and I like where 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:52.520 the relationship between the US and the UK has really 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:55.000 always been described as a special one. 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:58.960 Yeah, and people just keep readefining special. It's like sometimes 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:02.000 it's showed shoulders something. Times it's Blair and Bush with 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.080 them with you know, hands in pockets. 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:06.520 And so we have this new special relationship like gra 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:09.959 in the hands of Donald Trump and Prime Minister Cure Starmer. 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:13.040 Yeah, they have to redefine it for yet another generation. 0:01:13.600 --> 0:01:16.319 It's going to be very, very challenging for Kirs. Darmer 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.160 his team have made big efforts to reach out to 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:22.480 Trump's team. Let's see how they now work in practice. 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:24.600 But I think you have to credit them with the attempt. 0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:27.440 I would not get too head up on the one 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:30.440 hundred labor activists going over to America's campaign. I think 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.320 it was ill advised, but it's happened. I think now 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:36.800 the question is how the UK navigates the threat of tariffs. 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.240 Yeah, I think it's undeniable and agree that the UK 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:42.360 probably needs the US some kind of special relationship. So 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:46.000 how could this new relationship change given the new leadership 0:01:46.000 --> 0:01:48.080 on both sides of the Atlantic. That's the question we'll 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:50.920 try to address on today's show. And we're lucky enough 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.200 to be joined by Sir Nigel Shinwald. He has served 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.360 US for an policy and defense advisor to the Prime 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:59.160 Minister from two thousand and three to two thousand and seven, 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:01.639 and then he be the UK Ambassador to the US 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:07.840 from two thousand and seven to twenty twelve. Ambassador Seinvaul, 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:09.400 thank you so much for joining us. I mean it's 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:14.040 a pretty extraordinary political comeback, probably the biggest surprise in 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:16.440 recent history. What do you attribute that to? 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:21.600 Well, he has an amazing campaigning style and record now 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:27.920 and feeds into this selfishness and insularity in many publics 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:34.440 around the developed world since the recession, and probably enhanced 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:37.840 by enhanced by COVID and fanned by social media. So 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.119 it's a different political and media world from the one 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:45.239 and we have completely adjusted to that reality. We see 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:47.320 a version of it here in Europe, here in Britain 0:02:47.440 --> 0:02:50.720 and elsewhere in Western Europe. And it's true that in Europe, 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:54.080 unlike in twenty sixteen, there are a few countries where 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:57.560 the dominant party is on the populace right. So things 0:02:57.560 --> 0:03:00.440 have changed. Europe is still in a different position where 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:04.440 the traditional right is still mostly in charge or traditional 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:07.639 left parties. You know, this is a wake up call 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.280 to everyone in the center of Democrat politics. 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:13.320 But is this really a love of Trump policies maybe 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:16.640 going also towards more masculine traits for you know, the 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:19.680 young white but even lautin on black voters, or is 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:23.600 it a repudiation of the Harris message, especially in these 0:03:23.639 --> 0:03:26.440 northern industrial states known as a blue one. 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:30.480 I think it shows that the economic and social issues 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:34.200 trump the political Trump trump the political ones for the 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:38.800 time being. So among Democrat voters, the issue of democracy 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:41.800 and the future of democracy clearly was a big issue 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:44.560 that it doesn't seem to have been a big issue 0:03:44.600 --> 0:03:46.240 for the rest of the public. So the fact for 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:50.119 me that the Democrats, you know, lost on the economy, 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.960 and lost big on the economy, and weren't able to 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.080 make more of the fact that the US economy has 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:58.480 recovering and is in many is in any cases now 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:01.280 and in future in a very position, something we in 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:05.440 Europe rather envy. I think that ultimately is what lost 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:07.880 for the race, and the fact that immigration was never 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:10.920 a subject on which the Democrats were trying to be 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.400 competitive because of her personal weakness on that subject, and 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:18.720 because the Trump and the Republicans had bagged that as 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:23.160 an issue. I'm reluctant to go into the detail of 0:04:23.200 --> 0:04:25.160 mail voters and all the rest of it. I don't 0:04:25.200 --> 0:04:27.720 know that will well hold up in the end. I'm 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.839 sure there's something in all of that, but I go 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:36.200 back to fundamentals that Kamala Harris as a campaigner did 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.560 much better this time in twenty twenty. But she's not 0:04:39.680 --> 0:04:43.400 a star perform and there are weaknesses in her offering 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.880 to the to the public, which meant that there was 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.240 a sort of limit to how far she could go. 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:53.240 And it's a surprise today because the over the weekend 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:56.200 polls looked much more balanced but at this time last week, 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:58.520 I think most people were looking at this sort of 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.520 victory for although not in the popular vote. I think 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:05.480 that's the big surprise that he came through so strongly 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:07.760 as across the country. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.200 I mean, you're right, You're right, Nigel. The inquest is 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:14.279 already starting on the Democrat side. Some people this morning 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:17.279 saying this is this is more difficult for them to 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:21.279 process and digest than the Clinton loss. It is similar 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.720 in terms of these questions around is America ready for 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.359 a female president and so on, questions we can't answer 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.920 or hope to answer right now. But what's your sense 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:33.560 of whether there was anything they could do up against Trump? 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.640 I think the best chance would have been Biden doing 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:40.440 what he said, what he hinted he would do in 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:43.200 twenty twenty, and that is making clear halfway through his 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:45.680 term that he wasn't going to stand again and having 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:49.599 a genuine competition among Democrats for who might come through. 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.279 And I don't think it's necessarily the case that Kamala 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.640 Harris would have done. I mean, it was a it 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:57.159 was a dunge deal in July. The only way to 0:05:57.880 --> 0:06:00.279 salvage the situation in July was to put his vice 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:04.560 president upfront. But you know, plainly there are others themselves, 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:08.080 largely untested on the on the biggest stage, who might 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.400 who might have come through and developed a rapport with 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:12.919 the American people be able to deal with Trump. But 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:17.400 I repeat, he's clearly exceptionally difficult to deal with on 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:21.920 the campaign trail. And you know what's extraordinary this time 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:25.360 is more what has happened in between. And if you 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:27.640 go from the sixth of January today, that's the that's 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:32.839 that's the the issue which founds Europeans and many others around. 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:35.320 The world, and that's that's why people are feeling it 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:39.040 is more challenging to the Democrat mindset than the Hillary 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:42.760 Clinton loss, because then it was, well, shucks, what you're 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:44.920 going to do. You're up against a famous TV presenter, 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:47.640 is so so, you know, fresh and direct and all 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.560 of this, whereas now it's you know, he has been 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:55.320 in court as much as he's been on the campaign trail, 0:06:55.480 --> 0:06:57.960 and yet still this this clear victory. 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.800 Yeah. Absolutely, I mean, I think that most of the 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:03.599 things which have been proven in court cases, whether they've 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:08.000 been tried or just initiated. People sensed about Trump in 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:12.280 twenty sixteen and twenty twenty as well. It's true that 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:15.000 there's much more on the record than the more, but 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.920 they sensed this about him. They you know, it was there, 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:21.960 and the public you know, deliberately shows those who voted 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:24.440 for him in twenty twenty, the victory in twenty sixteen, 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:28.480 They shows someone with that sort of character fundamentally different 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:32.280 from the presidential character that you traditionally associate with, you know, 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.680 with the with the US. The other thing I'd say is, 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.760 you know, the Hillary Clinton was winning clearly, winning by 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:44.360 a month out in twenty I mean, Kamala Harris was 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:48.520 never clearly in the lead extended period. She was always 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:50.040 coming from behind Nidel. 0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:53.480 What does this all mean for allies of the US? So, again, 0:07:53.680 --> 0:07:58.800 because Donald Trump will have a cinemajority, he'll probably easily 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:02.240 clear his nominees the cabinet for the FED and so 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.600 policies will be implemented as he wants them. What does 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:07.520 that mean for the UK US relationship? 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:09.560 Well, I'm going to take one step back and just 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:11.080 go back to the last time round him, and I 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:13.640 agree with you. The implication of your question is that 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:16.960 there was a different type of cabinet officer last time, 0:08:17.000 --> 0:08:20.240 and that's true. There were grown ups around in the 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:24.760 first term, Rex Tillerson, General Mattis, people in the National 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:27.560 Security Advisor slot who had a great deal of experience 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:32.319 and for much much more of the political experienced political center, 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:35.280 fair enough, but when it came to the big decisions, 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.680 they didn't actually get Trump to change his views. Even 0:08:38.720 --> 0:08:41.079 his daughter didn't get him to change his views on climate. 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:45.520 He went ahead with his recognition of Jerusalem, he got 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:51.280 out of the IARM Deal, his confrontational stance on many issues, 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:55.920 and denigration of many European leaders and of NATO. That 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:59.760 all went on. Admittedly he didn't leave NATO, and certainly 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:02.320 that's going to be the case for the future. That 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:05.440 will be a battle for in the months ahead. But 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:10.000 for the UK government you've seen already some inkling of 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.560 how they'll try to deal with this to some degree 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:14.960 with his own base, Kirstan was taking a bit of 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.959 a risk by having dinner for two hours with Trump 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:20.760 in New York a couple of months ago, but that 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:23.160 was absolutely the right thing to do, as it was 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:26.680 for David Cameron to try and talk Trump through Ukraine 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.600 a little bit earlier in the year. So I think 0:09:29.640 --> 0:09:32.760 that is right, it's inevitable that they should try, but 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:37.600 particularly with the prospect of a Trump unbound and fewer 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:41.880 balancing voices in the administration around him, and a much 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:46.040 more vengeful Trump than was the case in twenty In 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:49.360 twenty seventeen, I think that you know that here in 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.760 the UK and around the rest of Western Europe, people 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.000 have got to be a little bit cautious and careful. 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:57.800 I think of the leaders who tried to deal with 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.240 him last time around, the one who emerged with the 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:04.960 greatest credit was Angela Merkel. She wasn't openly hostile, but 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:06.800 she just stepped back a bit and said, look, I'm 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.800 not going to play the game of romance. So I 0:10:09.840 --> 0:10:13.640 think an element of distance is correct working out our 0:10:13.640 --> 0:10:18.040 own interests, and the big fundamental issue for the UK, 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.360 I think is accelerating our reset with Europe. There are 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:26.400 some political constraints on that, inevitably after the Brexit decision 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:30.079 eight years or so ago, but that I think is 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.440 where he's going to put Kis starmanis to put his 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.840 foot on the accelerator and particularly in the defense and 0:10:35.880 --> 0:10:40.080 security area, really work much more closely with the other Europeans. 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.880 Do you talk deliquently about the diplomacy and the politics, 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:44.839 but what about the economics. I mean, this morning feels 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.320 to me like a very expensive morning for the UK 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:50.040 because you've got you know, we had a budget last 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:55.040 week and she hasn't she the Chancellor hasn't got much headroom. 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:57.800 And yet we now know that we are more likely 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:00.280 to have tariffs. Of course, the exact nature of them 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.800 is now you know, to be seen, but that will 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.600 be expensive for the UK unless we're very lucky. And 0:11:06.640 --> 0:11:10.080 then secondly, he Donald Trump will want an increase in 0:11:10.120 --> 0:11:13.000 defense spending and I don't see that they've got the 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.240 space to be able to do that increase. 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.080 Well, they're going to try and do some increase in 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.440 penn spending. George Robertson, as you know, is doing this 0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:24.839 Defense review which will be published early next year, and 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:28.960 it's inconceivable that he won't recommend some form of defense. 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.600 They've trying to do a little bit more already in 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.480 the in last week's pod. Yet I agree it's a 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.719 hugely constrained area and with so many other demands which 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:41.160 are higher on people's agendas, health and education and all 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:42.600 the rest of it, that is going to be a 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:47.240 scrap inside government. Of course, you know, defense spending, by 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:51.480 comparison with the other big demands on public services, you know, 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.160 is a more manageable entry. But I agree with you 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.839 your your fundamental point. But the UK already is spending 0:11:56.840 --> 0:12:00.600 about two and a half percent of GDP on defense, 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.439 so we're not the ones most in the American spotlight. 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.920 And I agree with you on tariffs, obviously, I think 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:09.760 he will pick and choose on tariffs. He will try 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:11.800 and divide and rule and cause a great deal of 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.200 disunity and trouble within the European pack. I don't know 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:18.000 whether we would therefore be given a little bit more leeway. 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.280 I just don't know. I agree with you that the 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:22.360 net result of any tariffs is going to be bad, 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:24.680 actually for both sides, will be bad for the American 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:27.959 consumer and the American public as well as as well 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.440 as for US. But I think that's an area where 0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:35.200 he does have some flexibility and there will be an 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.280 element of differentiating which, you know, which in the Trump 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:42.440 world is bound to be fairly erratic and personal and 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:44.320 aggressively and aggressively done. 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.360 What's the right way of dealing with Donald Trump? So 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:49.720 one of the first things he said that you know 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:52.400 he would do as president, would be to negotiate a 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.960 peace deal with Russia on Ukraine. How does the Prime 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:57.480 Minister Starmer deal with that? 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:00.120 Well, I think the broad answer to the question and 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:07.720 is respectfully and working out how to argue these cases 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:11.400 according to American interests as well as well as our own. 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:13.840 You've got to present it to him as being not 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:17.920 just the sort of European morally better choice, but it's 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:21.600 having a positive impact on American interests. And I think 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:25.560 you can explain that that no one is against ultimately 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.320 doing a deal which ends the war. But I think 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.240 you'll find that any sort of balance deal is going 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:34.320 to be a very difficult with the Ukrainians. We all 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.520 know that. But I'm not sure that he's correctly calculated 0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:39.040 if he thinks he can do it in a day 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.920 what the Rushia would, because there's no sign that for 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:47.400 putin anything other than abjects surrender by Ukraine is on 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.679 the cards in terms of his own political position. And 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.080 I think, you know, kids Starmer and others will have 0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:55.680 to explain to Donald Trump, and I'm sure there'll be 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.200 lots of in the US too explained to him just 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:03.200 how toxic that would be for American positions and reputations, 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.360 whether or not they want to be a leading player 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:07.360 in future NATO or whatever. But I think it will 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:11.079 just affect his leadership position in the world, which I 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:13.040 think in a sort of way he wants. He wants 0:14:13.040 --> 0:14:15.000 to have it both ways. He doesn't want to have 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:17.920 people saying we don't care about you, you're not a leader. 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:21.320 He likes the attention, likes to be deferred to. And 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.840 I think we've got we've got to try our best 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:29.480 to do two things. Number one, increase the European contribution 0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:34.440 on to NATO and to Ukraine. Assume more of even 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.280 more of the leadership. Actually it's about half and half today, 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:39.680 it's not all America, so we need to do more 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:43.480 of that. But at the same time, keep America in 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:46.000 the game for the long run. And if they are 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:51.880 negotiating with Russia, do it in conjunction with NATO allies 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.520 and with Ukraine above all with Ukraine itself, and try 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.480 and try and work out the best, the best the 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.600 way through are genuinely acceptable deal in terms which Trump 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:06.160 himself might might might understand and warm too. 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:09.920 I mean, Nigel, with with your with your with your 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:15.440 diplomatic ambassadorial hat on. People have been saying the first 0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:20.760 press conference between a convicted president, if that's the sort 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:23.920 of a way to put it. But you know, the Starmer, 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:26.240 prime minister who used to be in charge of the 0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:29.720 CPS standing shoulder to shoulder with Donald Trump at the 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:31.520 press conference. We don't know when it will happen. It 0:15:31.520 --> 0:15:33.080 maybe not be for a very long time, but it 0:15:33.080 --> 0:15:36.280 will come. You know, the journalists on that day will 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.000 have a field day sort of trying to point up 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:41.280 the differences in disposition and character and so on. But 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.600 do you think there is a credible relations special relationship? 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:46.320 Do you think you know there is a there is 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:50.600 a you know, Prime Minister Starmer making himself If not 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:55.280 genuine friend of President Trump, then then useful. 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:58.480 I think useful. Yes, I think it's unlikely to be 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.160 a genuine friend of Donald Trump. I don't think Boris 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:01.800 Johnson was that. 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.440 It was a complicated relationship, Borison and brilliant. 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:08.040 It was close. And I think that that there's there's 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.920 every chance that Keir Starmer will be listened to. He's 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:13.800 going to be in power for five years. He's in 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:17.800 a very stable position himself, He's not of the same 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:23.120 political persuasions as Trump by any means, but I think 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.600 he he's a centrist, and I don't see any reason 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:32.320 why they shouldn't have a good working relationship. When the 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.880 term special relationship is used, it's supposed to mean more 0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:38.880 than that. It's supposed to mean that each side sort 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.280 of picks up the phone on a regular basis, that 0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:45.080 there's an underlying or appor on values and the sort 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:49.200 of worldview. That's much more difficult with Trump in any case, 0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:54.200 I would say the specialness of the special relationship historically 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.720 has been waiting for his heyday under Churchill those years ago, 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.480 and Brexit has changed it. That has made the UK 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:07.280 a less consequential a life of the United States, less 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.359 able to perform that bridging rule. So things are changing 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:13.879 anyway in the overall, regardless of the personalities. 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:16.400 It's very difficult, I guess, to you know, think about 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:19.879 the special relationship. If we start by saying that Donald 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:22.480 Trump wants only loyalists in the cabinet, you wonder whether 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:24.960 his allies need to also be one hundred percent loyal 0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:29.360 to the Trump policeason, the Trump agenda, And then it 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.640 includes how to deal with China how to deal with 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:34.320 even you know, in North Carolina direction. 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.359 And I think that's right Brant, and we are we 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:39.800 are unclear at sitting in London right now, which way, 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:42.840 for instance, at Milliband will come down on that question 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.160 of tarifs on Chinese cars, where the Europeans have been 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:47.720 very clear and Donald Trump will be wanting to see 0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:51.600 clarity in firmness. I think for me, you know, clearly, 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:56.040 remember it wasn't long ago when President now President elect 0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:59.800 Trump then Candidate Trump was you know, he understands politics 0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:02.960 and power and as you say, Nigel, he could see 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:06.000 that kiss Armer had got a thumping majority. So lots 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.040 and lots. But I think that the wrinkle for me 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:09.800 is if you look at the fights that have then 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.919 forget about one hundred labor activists going over to the 0:18:12.920 --> 0:18:15.359 States in the war over the battle, the legal battle 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.639 about whether that was very long, the Elon Musk and 0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:20.879 the fact that kiss Armer and Elon Musk are you 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:22.960 know at loggerheads. That I think is troubling. 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.720 But I guess the question is, you know, in Nigel, 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:27.520 what does the UK need the US for? 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:28.520 Right? 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:30.480 Do they just need to make sure they don't make 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:33.480 an enemy of Donald Trump or do they actually need 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:37.360 active policies for the UK And what does that mean 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:39.120 for the UK's foreign policy agenda. 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:46.040 Well, Brexit means the whole terms that in foreign policy, 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.720 in the world, insecurity, the United States has become more 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.119 important to the UK than ever before. I'm afraid the 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.879 bare fact, you know, we've severed our institutional links with Europe. 0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.960 We're trying to rebuild them very very slowly at the moment. 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:03.720 So I think America looms looms larger as a result 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:08.200 of our own decision in twenty sixteen over over the EU. 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:10.760 So it remains important to us. It's always been in 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:15.080 ourn equal relationship in many ways. So I think he 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:17.439 has to stick at it and will stick at it, 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.680 as he's shown already. And no doubt Alegra's right that 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.320 in front of the microphones and the press corps, you know, 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.440 that would be uneasy to some degree. But I'm sure 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:28.800 kist On will just say I have to deal with 0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:32.880 the president the public elects. And he's been very, very 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:36.480 sure footed, you know that, despite the misstep of the 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.800 of the Labor Party a few weeks ago in that 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.640 and making that announcement. I think they'll get over that 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:47.399 very very fast. But operationally it does depend a bit 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.600 on the Cabinet office. The cabinet members are, you know, 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.159 the relationships down the line with the Foreign Secretary of 0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:55.920 the Foreign Office, Treasury and all the rest of it, 0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:58.160 and that may be much more difficult with the sort 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:01.439 of people that Trump may put in to these to 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.399 these roles. The role of National Security Advisor is that 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:08.360 in that full current position in the administration, linking up 0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:12.919 with number ten in a in an idequal world, and 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:16.639 you know, the person doing that role, if they don't 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:21.480 have a natural sense for working with allies and consulting 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:24.800 people and giving people their heads up, that's going to 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:25.760 be highly problematic. 0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:28.600 Yeah, I mean, it's sort of in turns funny and 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:32.240 also very very concerning the kind of Elon Musk gissed 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:34.680 on a sort of war of words that we start 0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:38.080 started over the summer, over the over the riots, and 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.439 then since are sort of morphed into Musk has clearly 0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:43.959 taken it upon himself to call out a number of 0:20:43.960 --> 0:20:47.080 things that the labor activists and labor say against the 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:50.360 backdrop of David Lammy manfully, you know, putting a lot 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:53.120 of effort into building bridges with Trump and the Trump team. 0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:55.600 Yeah, and JD. Vans and all the rest of it. 0:20:55.640 --> 0:21:00.199 And no, absolutely, look, I mean Musk and Kennedy. Know 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.399 the idea of Kennedy is the American Health Secretary or 0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:08.280 healthsar that should you know, legitimately strike fear into into 0:21:08.280 --> 0:21:10.960 people's hearts. So we'll see where he goes with those two. 0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:15.280 I mean, I let's see. I can't quite see on 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:18.960 Mass sitting in an office dutifully being a cabinet member. 0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:21.879 But you know we can. We've been supported where he is. 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:22.800 He won't do that. 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:24.320 He'll do it in his own way, and that's even 0:21:24.359 --> 0:21:27.000 more worry almost better if he did sort of, you know, 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:28.639 put on a suit and do what he's told. But 0:21:28.720 --> 0:21:30.600 if he if he does a job, then he'll probably 0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:31.640 do it in a nelon mosk way. 0:21:31.960 --> 0:21:33.840 Yeah, probably do it from space. I think that's what 0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:34.280 we should. 0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:39.440 Yeah, no suits, different type of suit. Yeah, Nije Fall, 0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:45.399