Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on
Speaker 1: the Republican voters of Missouri have spoken when they count
Speaker 1: the votes. We are going to win this and there's
Speaker 1: no path to victory for our opponents. Don't let her
Speaker 1: get you down. Remember talk is Chief Bloomberg Sound on Politics,
Speaker 1: Policy and Perspective from DC's top name. The people of
Speaker 1: Kansas send an unmistakable message. I mean, this is a
Speaker 1: big deal for women who can't afford not to have abortion.
Speaker 1: I've never seen so many veterans with tears in their
Speaker 1: eyes and tears in their eyes of Joyce Bloomberg Sound
Speaker 1: On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Senator Kirsten Cinema
Speaker 1: breaks her silence on the Democrats climate and tax bill.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the fastest hour in politics. With a big
Speaker 1: development that could mean the end of the carried in
Speaker 1: for his tax break. We'll have the latest from Capitol
Speaker 1: Hill in Bloomberg's Eric Wasson Breaking News Tonight, Kansas stunts
Speaker 1: the pun It's with a vote on abortion while primaries
Speaker 1: are held in five states. A good night for Donald
Speaker 1: Trump in Arizona and a win for Eric in Missouri.
Speaker 1: Leave and say his last name, with Jessica Taylor of
Speaker 1: the Cook Political Report. Our panel today Bloomberg Politics contributor,
Speaker 1: Democratic analyst Jeanie Chanzano, along with Republican strategist chap And Faye,
Speaker 1: former press secretary for Governor George Pattack either with us
Speaker 1: for the hour for analysis, and we start the headline
Speaker 1: crossed the terminal a short time ago. Cinema seeks to
Speaker 1: retain private equity, break curb corporate tax. Yes, the the
Speaker 1: senator from Arizona wants some changes, according to sources familiar
Speaker 1: with discussions speaking with Bloomberg News. Now depite what Senator
Speaker 1: Joe Mansion indicated over the weekend. We swept the Sunday
Speaker 1: morning talk shows and was repeatedly asked about whether Kirsten
Speaker 1: Cinema was involved. She has an awful lot in this
Speaker 1: piece of legislation, the way it's been designed, as far
Speaker 1: as the reduction of Medicare, letting Medicare go ahead and
Speaker 1: negotiate for lower drug prices. She's very involved in that. Well.
Speaker 1: That wasing on ABC this week helping to break the
Speaker 1: news for Bloomberg as Congress reporter Eric Wasson, he's with
Speaker 1: us right now. Great reporting, here, Eric, I suppose it
Speaker 1: should be no surprise that cinemas specifically looking at carried
Speaker 1: interest in corporate taxes. These are the two things that, uh,
Speaker 1: there was some concern about. Now that she's finally spoken,
Speaker 1: what changes does you want? Well, this is clever. She's
Speaker 1: not spoken publicly, but she has talked to other members
Speaker 1: of the Senate and people around town, and people are
Speaker 1: lobbying her, and and right now she's looking to narrow
Speaker 1: the corporate minimum tax. This is a three teen billion
Speaker 1: dollar uh you know tax minimum on companies that make
Speaker 1: more than one billion dollars in rev revenue. And this
Speaker 1: is some talk of sort of exempting tax breaks from
Speaker 1: manufacturers on depreciation and cost recovery. These are two benefits,
Speaker 1: especially enhanced by the Trump tax cuts, that would reduce
Speaker 1: the value of that that revenue by about a hundred
Speaker 1: billion dollars. So there's some talk of that. And then
Speaker 1: getting rid of the carried interest uh provision, which really
Speaker 1: only raises thirteen billion dollars, might be an easier lift
Speaker 1: for her caucus. But all this is going to cause
Speaker 1: problems for for other members in the caucus, and it
Speaker 1: could delay uh you know, resolution of this, which Democrats
Speaker 1: up to pass this week. I thought we were going
Speaker 1: to be talking about the CBO score today saying that
Speaker 1: the deal cuts the deficit by just about as much
Speaker 1: as had been built. But now these changes kind of
Speaker 1: blow out that number, right, Well they could, yes, So
Speaker 1: CBO came out and officially said a hundred and two
Speaker 1: billion dollars in deficit reduction over ten years. But when
Speaker 1: you factor in I R s they're going to give
Speaker 1: the I R S eighty billion dollars to hire more
Speaker 1: tax auditors. There's an informal estimate that will cause two
Speaker 1: hundred and four billion dollars more in revenue. CBO that
Speaker 1: does endorse that number, but they don't include it in
Speaker 1: their deficit figures. So you add them together, you get
Speaker 1: throughout three hundred billion, and that's what mentioned we have
Speaker 1: been advertising. So no big surprise there. That land mine
Speaker 1: was diffused for these guys, but remains a live problem.
Speaker 1: That's a real problem. So are these deal breakers or
Speaker 1: is there negotiating room on the items you mentioned? I
Speaker 1: think there's negotiating room. I think for for many members
Speaker 1: of the caucus, the climate spending and the drug price
Speaker 1: provisions are the most important. Uh, you know, if they
Speaker 1: can do some changes on the tax side and and
Speaker 1: and diffuse for cinema. These attacks that you're raising, you know,
Speaker 1: taxes in a harmful way during a recession, that could
Speaker 1: probably get over the line. And we don't know if
Speaker 1: the parliamentary in will keep for instance, the drug prescription
Speaker 1: drug pricing component in the bill. Right we're still waiting,
Speaker 1: uh for the bird bath to finish. Yes, there are
Speaker 1: aspects of that. I think My judgment is I haven't
Speaker 1: watched this a for a long period of time. That
Speaker 1: the changes to Medicare along Medicare the negotiate and capping
Speaker 1: seniors out of pocket that directly relates to the Medicare
Speaker 1: programs that affects the government budget. I think those stake
Speaker 1: in there is some of the interferes with the private
Speaker 1: market inflation rebates. It sort of penalizes drug companies with
Speaker 1: excise tax if they raise prices higher than inflation. That
Speaker 1: might not be seen in directly tied to the government
Speaker 1: budget and kicked out. We might also see this sort
Speaker 1: of cap on an insulin prices, uh, you know, in
Speaker 1: private insurance that just is being added in now basically
Speaker 1: at the request of Raphael Warnuck, who is the vulnerable
Speaker 1: uh Georgia senator who offered that provision, but most experts
Speaker 1: I talked to say that's not going to be allowed
Speaker 1: in boy A lot to talk about here, and Eric,
Speaker 1: we do thank you for joining us on a busy night.
Speaker 1: He shares the byline on the story kirston Cinema through
Speaker 1: sources Bloomberg reporting that we may have some changes in store.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get back to this story a bit later
Speaker 1: in the hour with Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick, who's going
Speaker 1: to take a look at some of the other items
Speaker 1: this one and others Democrats are trying to balance before
Speaker 1: they head home for August. Some big stories to cover.
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us on the fastest hour in politics.
Speaker 1: We didn't know we'd be. Starting with breaking news from
Speaker 1: the Senate, certainly following a newsy night, and big news
Speaker 1: not only on the primary trail but from Kansas. The
Speaker 1: resounding rejection as I read on the terminal of an
Speaker 1: effort to allow new restrictions on abortion access. The President
Speaker 1: weight in today the voters, as it's in a powerful
Speaker 1: singium at this fall, the American people will vote to
Speaker 1: preserve and protect them right and refuse to let them
Speaker 1: be ripped away by politicians speaking remotely to an unrelated event,
Speaker 1: remembering he's in isolation with COVID. This referendum in Red
Speaker 1: Kansas the first abortion related ballot measure this year. It's
Speaker 1: the first time voters have had a chance to weigh
Speaker 1: in since the Supreme Court ruling. Remembering here, as we've
Speaker 1: learned over the course of the day of registered voters,
Speaker 1: Democratic Republican, there was a week's long effort and by
Speaker 1: the way, this was a surprise, a week's long effort
Speaker 1: to try to make this happen by pro choice activist
Speaker 1: knocking on doors, writing cards, and it's made a lot
Speaker 1: of people wonder, with such strong turnout exactly what the
Speaker 1: signals are here. That's where we begin with Jessica Taylor
Speaker 1: glad to say she's with us on this day after
Speaker 1: primary night, Senate and Governor's editor for the Cook Political Report.
Speaker 1: Pretty big deal here, Jessica, Is it possible I've seen
Speaker 1: a lot of headlines that called us a bell weather.
Speaker 1: Is it possible to extrapolate what this could mean for
Speaker 1: the mid terms? Well, I think it's one data point
Speaker 1: that we have right now, and it's a big data
Speaker 1: point for sure, because this was the first electoral test
Speaker 1: after the Jobs decision repealed Roe v. Wade and sent
Speaker 1: it back to the states, and Kansas is a red
Speaker 1: state now it has a bit of a libertarian bent
Speaker 1: as well, which I think is what we are we're
Speaker 1: seeing here as well. But then just the resounding way
Speaker 1: that it voted showed that there are many states elsewhere
Speaker 1: where I think if you put this to a yes
Speaker 1: or no vote that you would see a similar outcome. However,
Speaker 1: there's there are there are going to be referendums on
Speaker 1: some ballots um in the general election this November or
Speaker 1: in states. But when you're dealing with candidates and where
Speaker 1: they stand, you have to balance a lot of different
Speaker 1: issues and you can't just say I'm going to vote
Speaker 1: for this for abortion, yes or no, because you have
Speaker 1: to vote for that via the candidate. I think it
Speaker 1: can matter more on governors races, and Laura Kelly is
Speaker 1: an incredibly endangered incumbent there in in Kansas, the Democratic governor.
Speaker 1: I think this could vode well for her certainly um
Speaker 1: and where it's probably gonna be one of the closest races.
Speaker 1: But again, where does it rank, Where does abortion rank overall,
Speaker 1: because remember, this is just on one issue, and we
Speaker 1: are seeing so much of the economy um inflation, fears
Speaker 1: of a recession driving the election. This is really important
Speaker 1: as people try to connect the dots here. Uh, certainly
Speaker 1: what we saw in Kansas, as I mentioned, followed a
Speaker 1: concerted effort. But should this be frankly a strategy for
Speaker 1: the Republican Party to get this off the electoral plate.
Speaker 1: Let's get it onto alets in states all over the country.
Speaker 1: So you're not you're not weighing down a campaign with
Speaker 1: that issue. You're putting it up there as a single
Speaker 1: issue decision. As you're describing, I mean East, she is
Speaker 1: going to make their own decision. And some of the
Speaker 1: swinging stages this year, it is more of a boot point,
Speaker 1: for instance in Nevada, where you have um tossed up
Speaker 1: governors race, a toss up Senate race that could be
Speaker 1: instrumental in deciding the majority um where it's already been
Speaker 1: legal and is enshrined in the constitution there in Nevada.
Speaker 1: So that takes some of the pressure off Republicans. But
Speaker 1: then I think what it also tells us is that
Speaker 1: you have so many of these candidates that are winning
Speaker 1: Republican primaries. It used to be sort of the UK
Speaker 1: Republicans were anti abortion largely, but they supported exceptions and
Speaker 1: candidates in the past and not support those exceptions. We
Speaker 1: saw that particularly in the twenty twelve elections with Toddy
Speaker 1: Aiken and Missouri and Richard Murdoch in Indiana and Senate
Speaker 1: races that were very winnable for Republicans that they lost
Speaker 1: because of comments they made about rape and abortion. And
Speaker 1: really the commonality that I'm seeing among some of these Republicans,
Speaker 1: particularly Senate and governor Senate Canada especially, is that there
Speaker 1: is no exceptions and perhaps life of the mother, but
Speaker 1: that's about it. Um. And so how much of this
Speaker 1: out of step because this isn't just you know, I
Speaker 1: think there is this. America is sort of in the
Speaker 1: middle on this. They don't want unrestricted abortion. This is
Speaker 1: what Republicans are arguing the Democrats want, but it took
Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans to make that happen. Last night
Speaker 1: though did not. But you see that as an outlier,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if as an outlier. I think we
Speaker 1: need more data and I think the polling where we
Speaker 1: will see because this again voting gives us concrete data, certainly,
Speaker 1: and we have seen polling where this is, you know,
Speaker 1: where people want to still support UM, want abortion access.
Speaker 1: But again it's not just a clean up or down
Speaker 1: vote come November. We have a lot to learn still
Speaker 1: on this as we spend time with Jessica Taylor of
Speaker 1: the Cook Political Report here on Bloomberg Sound On, and well,
Speaker 1: of course it was. It was an important day on
Speaker 1: the campaign trail across the board. Let's get into some
Speaker 1: of when they count the votes. We are going to
Speaker 1: win this and there's no path to victory for our opponent.
Speaker 1: That's Carrie Lake endorsed by Donald Trump in the Republican
Speaker 1: gubernatorial primary in Arizona, claiming victory last night even though
Speaker 1: the race had not been called victory over the Mike
Speaker 1: Pence endorsed Karen Taylor Robson. She started making vague accusations
Speaker 1: about voter fraud before even before the first vote was counted.
Speaker 1: But don't let her get you down. Remember, talk is
Speaker 1: cheap start in Arizona only because we'll go out. I
Speaker 1: guess alphabetical here, Jessica, how do you see this one
Speaker 1: turning out? Carry Lake obviously is taking some advice from
Speaker 1: Donald Trump on how to take credit for things right. Well,
Speaker 1: she is the Trump endorsed candidate. She has an election
Speaker 1: conspiracy theorists. Um, she's a former TV news anchor there
Speaker 1: in Phoenix. She's well known because she's I'm your gone.
Speaker 1: It's just sort of a radical transformation and to complete
Speaker 1: Trump accolyte there and uh, and she is a riskier
Speaker 1: general election candidate. She is leading. This race has not
Speaker 1: been called. But um, you know, as her opponent noted
Speaker 1: there too, she was claiming fraud even before and then
Speaker 1: now there's no fraud. So, um, it's this is you know,
Speaker 1: something that we see other candidates doing. It's only fraud.
Speaker 1: And if I lose, you know, So is this good
Speaker 1: for Donald Trump? That it hasn't been called yet? And
Speaker 1: I asked, because Um, Mike Pence has chosen candidate seems
Speaker 1: to be performing just about as well. Um, minor standing
Speaker 1: is probably the outstanding. Ballots are probably going to favor late,
Speaker 1: but we will see what the final totals come in.
Speaker 1: You can never really tell. But um, I mean it's
Speaker 1: good for Trump that his candidate one. He's gonna tout
Speaker 1: that certainly, but it could still lose them a seat
Speaker 1: in November sort of, Trump looks at He looks at
Speaker 1: the trees and not at the forest, because he wants
Speaker 1: to endorse candidates that are going to be loyal to him,
Speaker 1: that parent his election lies, and those are not necessarily
Speaker 1: the best general election candidates. I mean, he has already
Speaker 1: cost Republicans two seats to two governors races in Massachusetts,
Speaker 1: in Maryland by backing uh far right candidates that cannot
Speaker 1: win in those blue states. In one place in Um
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts, forcing a moderate governor to retire instead of
Speaker 1: run again. And Arizona. Doug Doocey there who backed Rob
Speaker 1: Ropeson is the r g A chairman. He knows how
Speaker 1: important this race is. Do you think Charlie Baker would
Speaker 1: have run again if it weren't for Trump? UM. A
Speaker 1: lot of Republicans I've talked to you think that he
Speaker 1: would have, But ultimately, you know, because he very well
Speaker 1: could have lost in a primary because a lot of
Speaker 1: his support comes from independence and Democrats in the state
Speaker 1: versus the Republican basis popular governors in the country though,
Speaker 1: right or so? We here Blake tell me about Blake
Speaker 1: masters on the Senate primary is Senator Kelly in trouble.
Speaker 1: This is the Trump endorsed candidate who is now the
Speaker 1: Republican nominee Senator Kelly has been in trouble because of
Speaker 1: the environment and the fact that he is running in
Speaker 1: a state that Biden only one by three tempts of
Speaker 1: that he's gone an opponent though, what is what do
Speaker 1: you what does this actual matchup tell you? I mean,
Speaker 1: Masters is the weakest of the possible candidates that could
Speaker 1: have won UM. He has a lot of controversial writings
Speaker 1: that Democrats have already honed in on, saying favorable things
Speaker 1: about quoting Nazis and the Unit Bomber, and he's talked
Speaker 1: about abolishing Social Security. They will definitely play that in
Speaker 1: retiree heavy um Arizona UM he has. He's another Peter
Speaker 1: Teel candidate, the billionaire venture capitalist. It's also back to J. D.
Speaker 1: Evanson Ohio. And I think this is a race that
Speaker 1: I've heard a lot of worry from Republicans in the
Speaker 1: past week or so about Masters versus Kelly. Who Kelly
Speaker 1: is popular. He's a former astronaut. There's probably no better
Speaker 1: thing you can be in politics than an astronaut because
Speaker 1: everybody loves astronauts. Um, he's running ahead of Biden again
Speaker 1: and ahead of Biden's favorability, so this could be a
Speaker 1: real race. A lot of people had kind of written
Speaker 1: him off. This was its supposed to be one of
Speaker 1: the seats that Republicans could flip. Right, No, it's it's
Speaker 1: a race. It's still going to be a race. But
Speaker 1: I think Masters was the weaker of the candidates really
Speaker 1: because there's just a treasure trove of of you know,
Speaker 1: opposition research on him that's going to come out. Lastly,
Speaker 1: I'll ask you, Jessica about the the impeachers, as Donald
Speaker 1: Trump likes to call them. Three House Republicans on primary ballots.
Speaker 1: Last night, I realized we have two that I believe
Speaker 1: are are are not able to call yet in Washington State.
Speaker 1: But it was not a good night for Congressman Peter
Speaker 1: Meyer in Michigan. And there was some Democratic meddling in
Speaker 1: this race. There were a lot of questions about a
Speaker 1: Democrats actually we're helping a prop up John Gibbs, the
Speaker 1: Trump endorsed candidate there. Right, We've seen this in some
Speaker 1: of Governor's racism and other places, but not in not
Speaker 1: in states where really the candidate the election denier candidate
Speaker 1: could feasibly win. This has been in blue or states.
Speaker 1: They're trying to, you know, take off the table um.
Speaker 1: And here though you have Gibbs, who is an election
Speaker 1: DENI are worked in the Trump administration. Um Mayer someone
Speaker 1: that you had a lot of Democrats being very upset
Speaker 1: that the D Triple C came in and spent here.
Speaker 1: But did they make the general easier for Democrats? Um?
Speaker 1: They did. But given again, it's no sure thing. You
Speaker 1: may thank this guy is gonna be easier to beat,
Speaker 1: but a lot of people thought that about Donald Trump
Speaker 1: in as well. So well, they're setting themselves up in
Speaker 1: a lot of cases. To your point, if if this
Speaker 1: is the bad strategy, we're gonna be hearing a lot
Speaker 1: about it. Jessica Taylor, thank you for coming in. It's
Speaker 1: great to talk to you again. Senate Governors edited the
Speaker 1: Cook Political Report with us on Bloomberg. Sound on. I'm
Speaker 1: Joe Matthew in Washington as we assemble the panel. The
Speaker 1: night after Eric one yo, Eric Schmitt, yes, Eric Schmidt one. Uh,
Speaker 1: not a good night for Eric Britten's. In fact, it
Speaker 1: was fairly decisive here this of course, Uh, the Republican
Speaker 1: primary for Senate in Missouri. We had a little bit
Speaker 1: of fun with this last night because if you might remember,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump endorsed simply Eric without a last name, knowing
Speaker 1: to Eric's we're running. Jennie Schanzano was with US Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Politics contributor Democratic Analysts, and I know that you had
Speaker 1: some fun last evening with this one, chap and Faye
Speaker 1: is with US UH as well. Republican strategist, former Press
Speaker 1: secretary for the Governor of New York, George Pataki Chapen.
Speaker 1: Great to have you back, Jeanie. What do you think
Speaker 1: of what we learned last evening here? Uh, it's a
Speaker 1: little bit difficult to to draw trend lines from last night,
Speaker 1: But why don't we start with Kansas because that could
Speaker 1: have ripple effects on the primary trail for the next
Speaker 1: couple of Or does it tell us anything about primary
Speaker 1: elections in November. Well, it's given Democrats a lot of
Speaker 1: wind in their sales. Um. You know, there was talk
Speaker 1: that this may not go the way of the pro
Speaker 1: life movement, but I think you know, turn out alone
Speaker 1: up at about just over about nine hundred thousand equivalent
Speaker 1: with the two thousand and eighteen general election in August primary.
Speaker 1: And let's not forget the cynical reason the legislature put
Speaker 1: this on primary day was because there's not a lot
Speaker 1: of Democrats and not a lot of Democratic primaries in
Speaker 1: red Kansas. So they put it there expecting the Republicans
Speaker 1: pro life would get out. And these numbers are astounding.
Speaker 1: So there's both the turnout and there's the the big win.
Speaker 1: And you know, you look at some of these counties
Speaker 1: and you're looking at you know, in counties that are rural,
Speaker 1: you're looking at fort saying they don't want to give
Speaker 1: the government this power to change the their ability to
Speaker 1: make reproductive health decisions. So it's a big win for
Speaker 1: Democrats in that respect. The question as doesn't translate to November,
Speaker 1: and that's a huge another issue, and I'm not sure
Speaker 1: it does. But listen, things are so bad for Democrats
Speaker 1: right now. This is a very good sign. This and
Speaker 1: Donald Trump maybe just what they need to turn the corner.
Speaker 1: So did this, Chape and Faye temper your expectations for
Speaker 1: Republicans in November or is this a one off? I mean,
Speaker 1: I think, um, you know, like your previous guests said,
Speaker 1: we need a little bit more data on it. But
Speaker 1: I do think this is a you know, huge red
Speaker 1: flag alarm bell should be going off. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned turnout and the stunning wind in a
Speaker 1: state like Kansas. UM, you know you're you're seeing, uh,
Speaker 1: the generic ballot nationally tighten up a little bit more.
Speaker 1: I think over recent weeks and months, and I think
Speaker 1: it's the Roe v. Wade decision had a lot to
Speaker 1: do with that. UM. I think this is shaping up
Speaker 1: to be much closer than people think. I still think
Speaker 1: Republicans will probably you know, take back the House because
Speaker 1: the margin is so small, but I don't think there's
Speaker 1: gonna be I think there's gonna be title waves in
Speaker 1: certain states, in certain areas. UM. But I think this
Speaker 1: is this is going to temper that a little bit.
Speaker 1: To the extent that abortion is being litigator on election day,
Speaker 1: that is that is generally not good for Republicans. This
Speaker 1: is a major indicator in in that front here because
Speaker 1: a lot of folks have been questioning whether this would
Speaker 1: in fact mobilize voters. And here we saw twice the turnout,
Speaker 1: almost twice the turnout of the primary in two thousand
Speaker 1: eighteen in Kansas. As you look at some of the
Speaker 1: other primary elections. I don't know if we learned a
Speaker 1: lot there. Certainly weren't too many surprises. Genie one impeachers
Speaker 1: so so called, was fired. Two more we have to
Speaker 1: find out. We knew Trump was gonna play well in Arizona.
Speaker 1: That includes down ballot. Mark Fincham won the primary for
Speaker 1: secretary of State. He's going to be running the elections
Speaker 1: in Arizona as an election denier, and they they sent
Speaker 1: Rusty Bowers to the shower. Genie, how in Porton is
Speaker 1: that Mark finch Um race. I feel like that's when
Speaker 1: people should be talking a lot more about, you know
Speaker 1: it is. And you know, I just kept thinking last night,
Speaker 1: what a division between a place like Arizona on the
Speaker 1: GOP side, whereas you mentioned election deniers, and certainly you
Speaker 1: have the a G race, the secretary of state race,
Speaker 1: you know, the governor's race, the Senate on the GOP side,
Speaker 1: versus a place like Georgia where where people making that
Speaker 1: case were turned away. So there is a big division there.
Speaker 1: And so you know, I think we're gonna have to
Speaker 1: look state by state at this. You know, one takeaway
Speaker 1: from last night is that Donald Trump does retain enormous
Speaker 1: sway over the GOP base. And so when you're talking
Speaker 1: about primaries like this, he really does have it still enormous,
Speaker 1: not you know, power. It doesn't mean he's you know,
Speaker 1: all knowing and all forceful, but he does have a
Speaker 1: lot of sway. But that said, the what Democrats are hoping,
Speaker 1: of course, is that if you get candidates who are
Speaker 1: too extreme and still focused on as opposed to two
Speaker 1: and looking forward, that may work to their advantage. And
Speaker 1: you know, as Jessica just said, somebody like Mark Kelly
Speaker 1: is feeling pretty good that they can maybe retain this
Speaker 1: Senate seat going up after Blake Masters. So this is
Speaker 1: a good day for Democrats. Hence the D Triple C
Speaker 1: funders funding these you know, extremist candidates, which I'm not
Speaker 1: a fan of. Well, god knows, Donald Trump had a
Speaker 1: good night in Missouri Chapin. I guess he he would
Speaker 1: have either way. Eric first, fighters who will advance the
Speaker 1: America First agenda, secure the border, and finish President Trump's
Speaker 1: wall Er Schmidt's not Brighton's wins. This one peculiar. It's
Speaker 1: a Republican Senate primary, of course, it's important that's the
Speaker 1: Attorney General, Eric Schmidt also an election denier. But what
Speaker 1: did you make of that whole not endorsement chapin with
Speaker 1: Donald Trump just joking around, you know. It's it's it's
Speaker 1: very hard to tell sometimes what President Trump is doing
Speaker 1: or thinking, um in his actions and tweets. Um. I
Speaker 1: think it was probably a big hedge. Um. One thing
Speaker 1: we know about Trump as he likes to side with winners, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, most of most endorsers on the cynical side
Speaker 1: of politics want to endorse the winner, right, Um, you know,
Speaker 1: and and and it's less about principle than it is
Speaker 1: about you know, pick a winner. So I think that's
Speaker 1: probably what he was doing. So it's a hedge with
Speaker 1: a smirk. Although I hear that Republicans were relieved that
Speaker 1: it was not Eric Written's would you agree with that?
Speaker 1: I think so. I mean, you know, uh, the former
Speaker 1: president still has a lot of sway as we saw
Speaker 1: last night. Um, so his his endorsement is meaningful. So
Speaker 1: to the extent, I do think they were relieved because
Speaker 1: if he had been more specific and going with the
Speaker 1: other guy, it could have been it could have been
Speaker 1: a different outcome. Brighten's of course, the man with the
Speaker 1: rhino hunting license. I guess that won't be available in
Speaker 1: Missouri now, A great panel, of course, they'll be back.
Speaker 1: Genie Chanzano and Chapin Faye with us as we turned
Speaker 1: back to breaking news on Capitol Hill on reconciliation. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg broadcasting live from our nation's capital, Bloomberg to
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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew. Democrats in the
Speaker 1: Senate thought they were days away from a vote on
Speaker 1: the climate in tax bill worked out between Joe Mansion
Speaker 1: and Chuck Schumer. Even the CBO confirmed the deficit numbers
Speaker 1: in the bill, but kirston Cinema Wealth that all may
Speaker 1: be changing. We'll talk about it next with Bloomberg Government's
Speaker 1: Jack Fitzpatrick live from Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Speaker 1: Schumer was sounding pretty confidence on the Senate floor this
Speaker 1: morning over progress on the Democrats climate and tax bill,
Speaker 1: though when they call the Inflation Reduction Acts. We will
Speaker 1: protect health care, we will lower the price of prescription drugs,
Speaker 1: and make energy cheaper while making the largest investment in
Speaker 1: clean energy ever. These are things that Americans support. These
Speaker 1: are things that our country needs, and these are things
Speaker 1: that we're going to get done when we pass the
Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act in the coming days in the coming days,
Speaker 1: generating headlines, but maybe not as Bloomberg Now reports that
Speaker 1: Kirston Cinema is looking to make some changes here. As
Speaker 1: we discussed earlier with Eric Wasson that carried interest component
Speaker 1: here and the corporate tax that the very issues that
Speaker 1: people were concerned about in thoughtful jeez, maybe maybe Joe
Speaker 1: Mansion kind of knew what she was thinking. He suggested
Speaker 1: as much on Sunday. Remember played that for you a
Speaker 1: little while ago. ABC this week, didn't you talk to
Speaker 1: kirston Cinema, Senator? She has an awful lot in this
Speaker 1: piece of legislation, in the way it's been designed. As
Speaker 1: far as the reduction of Medicare, Let Medicare go ahead
Speaker 1: and negotiate for lower drug prices, She's very involved in that.
Speaker 1: What about the rest minimum tax, corporate minimum tax? What
Speaker 1: about ending carried interest because apparently she's not on board
Speaker 1: with either of them. We thought we'd be having a
Speaker 1: different conversation today with Jack Fitzpatrick, but this just broke
Speaker 1: a short time ago. He's with us, of course, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Government Congress reporter. Uh, how concerned is the leadership about
Speaker 1: this development? Jack? Did the whole timeline just changed. I
Speaker 1: don't know if the whole timeline has changed yet. We
Speaker 1: knew that Senator Cinema would be the person to watch here,
Speaker 1: and we really knew about the issue of the carried
Speaker 1: interest loophole. Now the fact that she also wants a
Speaker 1: change to that fiferent corporate minimum tax, that's interesting. Apparently
Speaker 1: she is pushing to narrow that the circumstances in which
Speaker 1: would apply. It's not necessarily that she's trying to throw
Speaker 1: it out entirely. It very well made maybe the case
Speaker 1: that if she gets what she wants, it wouldn't make
Speaker 1: a huge difference in terms of the tax revenue that
Speaker 1: this would bring in, and therefore wouldn't make a big
Speaker 1: difference in the deficit reduction outcome and all of that.
Speaker 1: The carried interest measures only fourteen billion dollars of revenue
Speaker 1: in the bill, that would raise more than seven So look,
Speaker 1: they need her vote. If they don't get her vote,
Speaker 1: this thing falls apart. Impossible though that what she's asking
Speaker 1: for would not fundamentally change the bill. Uh, And they
Speaker 1: knew that this would not be an easy easy task.
Speaker 1: They've got to get everybody on board, and they're bound
Speaker 1: to be some lastminute negotiations. Uh. They do seem to
Speaker 1: think that, you know, work over the weekends, maybe early
Speaker 1: next week. This is something that they can still get done.
Speaker 1: Joe Mansion's refrain on on all the Sunday morning shows
Speaker 1: and needed them all was we have there are no
Speaker 1: tax hikes here, only closing closing tax loopholes. I'm assuming
Speaker 1: that she is not seeing it that way. So you
Speaker 1: eliminate the carried interest in this case, make Wall Street happy.
Speaker 1: The corporate minimum tax though, wouldn't that involve like a
Speaker 1: major rewrite of this plan. Uh? That depends. You know.
Speaker 1: The conversation that had been happening going into this was
Speaker 1: how many corporations? In which corporations does this apply to? Uh?
Speaker 1: We you know, it's it's not like Senator Cinema has
Speaker 1: a new draft that we can compare and contrast. But
Speaker 1: for example, UH Senator Mansion was saying that fifteen percent
Speaker 1: minimum should apply to UH corporations with a billion or
Speaker 1: more in annual revenue. So if she wants to poke
Speaker 1: a hole in that and say, well, there could be
Speaker 1: carved outs for certain other kinds of corporations or raise
Speaker 1: the threshold, that may not need to be a massive
Speaker 1: rewrite if it's generally around the idea, the same idea
Speaker 1: of a fifteen percent minimum, and there's a debate over
Speaker 1: exactly who it who it UH applies to. She's not
Speaker 1: even the only one who may want some change, you know.
Speaker 1: For example, UM Senator Debbie Stabin now from Michigan wants
Speaker 1: some changes on the tax credits for electric vehicles. There's
Speaker 1: there's always going to be in a big bill like
Speaker 1: this there until the very last moment, there's gonna be
Speaker 1: a conversation about, well, what can we tweak? Can we
Speaker 1: do this for my constituents? Uh, it's not easy to
Speaker 1: pass it, but it doesn't necessarily mean a fundamental rewrite
Speaker 1: or something deeply complex that would take a huge amount
Speaker 1: of time to do. Okay, this is interesting. We're still
Speaker 1: planning for a working weekend right that there could be
Speaker 1: root rama this weekend. What's your expectation the next couple
Speaker 1: of days, assuming they're talking with kirston Cinema. We've got
Speaker 1: sources talking to Bloomberg. I mean, can we assume there's
Speaker 1: a conversation going on here behind the scenes. Yes, we
Speaker 1: can assume there's some level of communication, especially now that
Speaker 1: we see Laura Davison and Eric Watson's report from earlier
Speaker 1: today that Cinemas putting out you know, what her concerns are,
Speaker 1: and that it's at least known to people, uh generally
Speaker 1: talking to senators. We're not sure exactly what time and
Speaker 1: day the rest of this is going to take place,
Speaker 1: but yeah, the context is essentially trying to finish this,
Speaker 1: if not over the weekend, then early next week. I
Speaker 1: don't think anybody expects to be here in the middle
Speaker 1: of or late next week. Obviously, again, there are there
Speaker 1: are challenges, there are purdles they have to overcome, but
Speaker 1: there's still basically on a near term timeline of trying
Speaker 1: to get this built through the Senate over the next
Speaker 1: uh you know, week or left. Jack Fitzpatrick, appreciate it. Jack,
Speaker 1: It's great to talk with you. Bloomberg Government Congress reporter
Speaker 1: still at it, working the halls of power on Capitol
Speaker 1: Hill and with us here on the fastest hour in politics.
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell weighed in on the plan today. Of course,
Speaker 1: you know, as we talk about reconciliation. Just to remind you,
Speaker 1: since this gets to be a little wonky, it's just
Speaker 1: like Build Back Better last year. It's only Democrats. That's
Speaker 1: why they have to have the Parliamentary and scrub this
Speaker 1: thing and actually be a budget revenue bill. And the
Speaker 1: Parliamentarian is not done yet, could still take components out
Speaker 1: of this. As we've heard, there have been challenges to
Speaker 1: every component of this bill from Republicans. Senate Minority Leader
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell on the floor this morning. This bill is
Speaker 1: a massive goodie bag of far left environmental activists at
Speaker 1: the expense of working families. Democrats want to use their
Speaker 1: own inflation as a pretext, could dump hundreds of billions
Speaker 1: of dollars into Green New Deal nonfense. This bill declares
Speaker 1: war on American energy, independent and affordability. We'll keep you
Speaker 1: posted on this and we'll reassemble the panel next on
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Speaker 1: markets on the way. This is Bloombird. You're loose name
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg. You sound on with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Could Senator kirston Cinema sinc the Inflation Reduction Act? She's
Speaker 1: certainly poised to make some changes, as Bloomberg is now reporting,
Speaker 1: But as we remember from Build Back Better, changes on
Speaker 1: the tax side can also mean big changes on the inside.
Speaker 1: Let's reassemble the panel for their take. Bloomberg Politics contributor
Speaker 1: Democratic analyst Jeanie Chanzano is joined today by Chap and Fay,
Speaker 1: Republican strategist, and great to have you both back. Jennie,
Speaker 1: is it about to happen again? I don't think we
Speaker 1: could take it, Joe Matthews, So I certainly hope not.
Speaker 1: But you know it was, well, that's true. Joe Manchin
Speaker 1: took the blame really, or was given the blame for
Speaker 1: Build Back Better the end of last year, but kirston
Speaker 1: Cinema was just as much a problem for it, right, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: and it's true, you know, and too Jack's point earlier.
Speaker 1: You know, this is surprising. Um, she has long had
Speaker 1: this you know, view of the carried interest loophole. So
Speaker 1: that's not a surprise, Um, corporate tax. You know the
Speaker 1: fact that she may want to make some changes in
Speaker 1: there a little bit more surprising, I would say, but
Speaker 1: you know, not not unthinkable. Um. The problem I think
Speaker 1: for Democrats is the longer this goes, the more Republicans
Speaker 1: are able to pick it apart, and that people come
Speaker 1: in and try to make changes, and that makes it harder.
Speaker 1: You know, do I think they'll still get it done? Yes,
Speaker 1: I do, But this has always been an incredibly you know,
Speaker 1: you know, high tight rope act for for the Democrats
Speaker 1: to walk because they can't lose anyone at this point cheap.
Speaker 1: And there were a lot of questions about why Kirsten
Speaker 1: Cinema wasn't in the room, why was this a Schumer
Speaker 1: mansion deal. I suppose we're still asking those questions. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean it's a legitimate, uh, concerned complain of hers,
Speaker 1: and it's given her this opening, Um, I think was
Speaker 1: sort of the wind at her back rather than the others.
Speaker 1: So it is this opportunit for Republicans. You heard what
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell had to say about it, a far left
Speaker 1: goodie bag. Can Republicans make changes in this sort of
Speaker 1: point of vulnerability or is that not the case? Reciliation? Well,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm not Sentate parliamentarian, thank gosh, and I don't
Speaker 1: envy the Senate Parliamentary in these days. Um, but I
Speaker 1: believe they're talking about a vote rama and under a reconciliation,
Speaker 1: I think they can offer certain amendments, as we can
Speaker 1: know Sarah McConnell and Republicans in the past have been
Speaker 1: very good at that. And listen, it's less than a
Speaker 1: hundred days to the midterm elections, So I think both
Speaker 1: parties are going to, um, you know, forget about doing
Speaker 1: good by the people for a second, try and you know,
Speaker 1: quote unquote win um this battle. Regardless of what that
Speaker 1: looks like. I do agree that I think it will
Speaker 1: get done. But I do think there's a ton of
Speaker 1: opportunities for Republicans to pick apart each one and use
Speaker 1: it to their advantage in the in the coming midterms,
Speaker 1: and Democrats could do the same thing. Jack Fitzpatrick's him
Speaker 1: to think that this could still flow without a big rewrite,
Speaker 1: without another submission to the Parliamentarian. Uh here, Jeannie, but boy,
Speaker 1: the time is just not on Democrats side. You've got
Speaker 1: an August recess. I suppose they can change that reschedule it.
Speaker 1: We know it will be a working weekend, but are
Speaker 1: we really doing this. We're gonna come back in September
Speaker 1: and hash this out in the media with kirston Cinema
Speaker 1: and Joe Manchon. This is this is like a bad
Speaker 1: dream for some Democrats, it is, you know, I think
Speaker 1: it becomes very, very difficult to do this after Labor Day,
Speaker 1: as Japan just mentioned, you know, you are then dangerously
Speaker 1: close to the mid term um, you know, and you
Speaker 1: know I was noting things like Bernie Sanders obviously he's
Speaker 1: seldom happy with these things, but he has torn into
Speaker 1: Joe Manchon about what what's not in this bill. Not
Speaker 1: a big surprise there, but they can't afford to lose anyone.
Speaker 1: And I thought one of the most fascinating reads on
Speaker 1: the terminal was Stephen Dennis and Jenny Leonard's piece about
Speaker 1: how the lobbying effort not a surprise, but the details
Speaker 1: of the lobbying effort that is going in Christian Cinema's
Speaker 1: ear is utterly astounding when you look at it. Everyone
Speaker 1: from the CEO of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, two Republicans.
Speaker 1: I mean, that was a fascinating reed to see the
Speaker 1: amount of pressure she's being put under, not only by
Speaker 1: Democrats but Republicans and people in her state and across
Speaker 1: the country who know she holds this in her hands.
Speaker 1: So she's been very tight lipped, obviously, but we see
Speaker 1: her and we hear about her getting a lot of
Speaker 1: a lot of information from people who have very different views. Well,
Speaker 1: just when you think again that nothing gets done in
Speaker 1: Washington than that we're bogged down, and of course we
Speaker 1: are bogged down on well most things, something did pass
Speaker 1: the Senate today. On this vote, the yea's are six,
Speaker 1: the nays are eleven. Under the previous order requiring sixty
Speaker 1: votes for the adoption of this motion to concur the
Speaker 1: motion is agreed to you, Senator Hassen. That's the vote
Speaker 1: on the Packed Act. We spent time on this last week,
Speaker 1: uh and even early this week. This was the burn
Speaker 1: Pits Bill. This was the bill to provide healthcare enhanced
Speaker 1: healthcare benefits to military veterans who were impacted made sick
Speaker 1: by toxic burn pits uh in in the field and
Speaker 1: in many cases in combat, although some here on basis
Speaker 1: in the US chapin Fay, Republicans took big heat for
Speaker 1: voting against this last week and an apparent reversal to
Speaker 1: protest the Mansion Schumer deal, a lot of them came
Speaker 1: back to make this happen. Was was this an egg
Speaker 1: on face moment for the GOP um? I mean, I
Speaker 1: think it will play that way, right, regardless of what
Speaker 1: the what the reasoning is behind bills and votes. You know,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of room for nuance in today's
Speaker 1: seven twitter media environment. Um. So, regardless of what the
Speaker 1: arguments for Republicans voting against it and then coming back,
Speaker 1: it's gonna look like they have egg on their face.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a billet that that I think everyone
Speaker 1: agrees should have been passed. Um. So if Republicans want to,
Speaker 1: you know, take a take a vote for some sort
Speaker 1: of print, well that's fine. Um, but it is gonna
Speaker 1: look a little a little silly now that someone came
Speaker 1: back and Muslim came back to vote for it. It's
Speaker 1: a win for Democrats for for Joe Biden, Genie, he's
Speaker 1: already scheduled a signing ceremony for next week, which which
Speaker 1: Jeanie should tell you something. You know, in the midst
Speaker 1: of this reconciliation debate, you get something like this, you
Speaker 1: don't sign it unless there's a ceremony, plans you can
Speaker 1: take credit for it. That's right, and we shouldn't forget,
Speaker 1: you know, a very emotional issue for Joe Biden. He
Speaker 1: attributes the brain cancer and the death of his son
Speaker 1: Bo to exposure to burn pits like this so very
Speaker 1: emotional for him. And of course the bill named after
Speaker 1: Sergeant Robinson, thirty nine year old died of lung cancer.
Speaker 1: His mother in law spent so much time pushing for this,
Speaker 1: and so moving were her remarks about the fact that
Speaker 1: doesn't benefit her family at all, but hopefully it is
Speaker 1: in tribute to her son in law. So it's going
Speaker 1: to be a very moving signing ceremony. It's you know,
Speaker 1: I think it's a win for veterans and a win
Speaker 1: for everybody who served in the in the Middle terry.
Speaker 1: It's hard to see this as just a win for Democrats,
Speaker 1: and and I hope that it's not sold that way,
Speaker 1: because this is a critically important bill. Another important vote
Speaker 1: happening today in the Senate is that to approve the
Speaker 1: Sweden Finland entrance to NATO. This is something that has
Speaker 1: to be cleared by legislatures in all of the countries involved.
Speaker 1: And boy, to listen to Mitch McConnell today, essentially daring
Speaker 1: his Republican members to vote against their session will make
Speaker 1: NATO stronger and America more secure. If any Senator is
Speaker 1: looking for a defensible excuse to vote no, I wish
Speaker 1: him good luck. I believe Josh Holly was one of them. Chapin,
Speaker 1: this isn't something Republicans want to stand against, correct, I
Speaker 1: don't think so. Um, you know, expansion of NATO. UM
Speaker 1: is important and um, a strong NATO is important for
Speaker 1: our national offense and the defense more allies. And you know,
Speaker 1: when Nancy Pelosi is over, you know, making a point
Speaker 1: in Taiwan. Um, I think it's important that this, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't think Republicans. I don't think very many Republicans
Speaker 1: are going to vote against it in the end, especially
Speaker 1: since the leader, you know, uh Center McConnell, you know,
Speaker 1: isn't really in the habit of letting Republicans go um
Speaker 1: off the reservation um, you know, unless they have good reasons.
Speaker 1: So I think it'll I think most Republicans will be
Speaker 1: there on this, so we can cross this one off
Speaker 1: the list too, then, Jennie, I think so we think
Speaker 1: the shopping list, you know, to end the summer with
Speaker 1: this was another component. Yeah, this is and you know
Speaker 1: it looks like what ninety plus or minus votes this
Speaker 1: will pass. You know, we should say, I mean, Holly's
Speaker 1: opposition is rooted sort of a Trumpian view of not
Speaker 1: expanding NATO, but of course that's all changed in the
Speaker 1: wake of Russia's invasion into a Ukraine. So you know
Speaker 1: it's Mitch mccamwell is probably saying, guys, don't do what
Speaker 1: you did on the Pact Act, even though we should
Speaker 1: say Toomey's vote there was probably principle, but many of
Speaker 1: the others were not. Genie, thank you, Chapin Faye as always,
Speaker 1: great panel. Jeanie Schanzon will be back with us tomorrow
Speaker 1: and shape and it's great to talk with you. Republican
Speaker 1: strategist here on Bloomberg sound on. Uh yeah, I'll tell
Speaker 1: you what the uh the the debate if we can
Speaker 1: call it that. Leading up to UH, you know this
Speaker 1: vote on Sweden and Finland remarkable Senator Tom Carper Delaware,
Speaker 1: UH spent quite a bit of time talking about this
Speaker 1: on the floor. If you think that you know, Washington
Speaker 1: is is all serious wonky policy, get a dose of
Speaker 1: Tom Carper making the case for Sweden. I had the
Speaker 1: privilege sitting next to the Queen during um dinner and UH,
Speaker 1: I said that. The Queen Sylvia said, is there a
Speaker 1: connection between Aba and you were and your husband? Is
Speaker 1: there there is? I said, well, what is it? She said,
Speaker 1: the night before we're married? Uh, in Sweden? She said
Speaker 1: there there was a huge celebration and a concert out
Speaker 1: to our concert with tens of thousands of people, and
Speaker 1: she said the headlining group for the concert was they said,
Speaker 1: no kidding and this is and she said that was
Speaker 1: a night they debuted the song Dancing Queen. How about
Speaker 1: that for maybe one of the best pop songs I've
Speaker 1: ever heard. And I won't say that we sat there
Speaker 1: and come to few bars, but maybe we did. We
Speaker 1: had a lot of common with this. Weet ended him
Speaker 1: the chair, very very much appreciation with you for the
Speaker 1: arts music. Yeah, it's about our shared interest in the
Speaker 1: arts and especially music, and by that I mean aba
Speaker 1: that Sweden will at last see its way into NATO,
Speaker 1: and at least according to the US Senate. Apologies for
Speaker 1: the earworm, and thanks to everyone for jumping in. Eric
Speaker 1: Watson with breaking news, Jessica Taylor after our primaries are
Speaker 1: panel Genie and Shapen, and of course Jack Fitzpatrick. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg.