WEBVTT - Galaxy Digital Founder & CEO Mike Novogratz Talks Bitcoin Rally

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Bitcoin topping ninety thousand dollars for the first time ever.

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<v Speaker 2>As the record rally continues and the rally kicked off

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<v Speaker 2>by President elect Trump's victory last week ago. Today, one

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<v Speaker 2>week to go. Today, we're going to bring in Crypto

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<v Speaker 2>Bowl Mike Novogratz, Who's quot the most important thing to

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<v Speaker 2>happen to digital assets in years joining us now, of

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<v Speaker 2>course is Mike Novogratz. You know, Mike, when you think

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<v Speaker 2>about just what has happened here just in crypto prices

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<v Speaker 2>over the last couple of weeks is one thing. But

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<v Speaker 2>I also want to get your view here into the

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<v Speaker 2>larger view of things. We are getting many appointments. It's

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<v Speaker 2>coming in rapid fire overnight. When you think about who

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<v Speaker 2>the president elect wants to put around him, and you see,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, Elon Musk and vi Veakwamaswami playing a role

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<v Speaker 2>here at the end of the day, how does this

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<v Speaker 2>all make you think differently about the policies you're going

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<v Speaker 2>to see moving forward, How credible some of these policies

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<v Speaker 2>can be moving forward, how you invest through them?

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<v Speaker 3>Listen, I think one thing is clear with Elon and Vivek.

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<v Speaker 4>They want to cut some of the spending out of

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<v Speaker 4>the government.

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<v Speaker 3>And so when I think of, you know, we have

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<v Speaker 3>a six point seventy five trillion dollar budget of when

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<v Speaker 3>you look at Medicare, social Security, and interest payments, that's

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<v Speaker 3>fifty seven percent. If you throw a defense on top

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<v Speaker 3>of it, you're like at seventy five percent, And so

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<v Speaker 3>you only have twenty five percent to work with unless

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<v Speaker 3>you're going to attack those those sacred spaces.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, Medicare social Security have always been third rails. The

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<v Speaker 4>easiest thing is the pressure of the FED to cut rates.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, every twenty five basis points of rate cuts saves

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<v Speaker 3>twenty five billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 4>From your budget.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, think about how many hundred thousand dollars employees you

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<v Speaker 3>need to cut out of the government to save twenty

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<v Speaker 3>five billion dollars, Like quickly, do a calculator and do

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<v Speaker 3>the math right. And so the biggest fix for the

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<v Speaker 3>government would be to get short rates down so our

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<v Speaker 3>funding costs. And I think the story they're going to

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<v Speaker 3>tell is we're gonna we're gonna need monetary policy because

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<v Speaker 3>we're going to be really good on fiscal We're gonna cut, cut, cut, Now,

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<v Speaker 3>if that's the case, it's great for the stock market,

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<v Speaker 3>it's great for America.

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<v Speaker 4>Uh, the proof will be in the putting. Can they

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<v Speaker 4>cut right?

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<v Speaker 3>We know trubles to cut taxes to spur growth, but

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<v Speaker 3>Kenny cuts spending and and he he never has in

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<v Speaker 3>his career.

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<v Speaker 2>Well to that end too. Would you be a buyer

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<v Speaker 2>of long bonds at this juncture or would you actually

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<v Speaker 2>go short?

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<v Speaker 3>With that kind of doubt, I think you've got to

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<v Speaker 3>sell the long end every rally you want to sell. Listen,

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<v Speaker 3>because if if the things are working, the Fed's going

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<v Speaker 3>to cut rates right again, this idea of how do

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<v Speaker 3>you how do you cut interest rate costs down in

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<v Speaker 3>the eil Kirk steevens and so, I just don't think there's.

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<v Speaker 4>A whole lot of value in a world.

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<v Speaker 3>And listen, Bitcoin is telling you that gold, silver tells

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<v Speaker 3>you that like the world is still worried. The only

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<v Speaker 3>way you get out of thirty six trillion dollars of

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<v Speaker 3>debt is to inflate it away. And you want to

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<v Speaker 3>gracefully inflate it away. You can't have hyper inflation or

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<v Speaker 3>you have chaos. Right, you want to run four percent inflation?

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<v Speaker 4>That's hard to do. But that's the goal, right.

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<v Speaker 1>So Mike, it sounds like you're a bond bear, but

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<v Speaker 1>you're a bitcoin bowl And I want to get back

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<v Speaker 1>to crypto here, and I want to talk about the

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<v Speaker 1>possibility of a bitcoin strategic reserve. You think about this

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<v Speaker 1>rally that we're seeing in bitcoin, which is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the purest supply and demand markets, and one of the

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<v Speaker 1>reasons I keep hearing is that there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>optimism that we could see the United States government buy

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<v Speaker 1>up to a million worth of bitcoin. Now that you

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<v Speaker 1>do have all these crypto advocates in Congress, are you

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<v Speaker 1>confident that we could see something like that?

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<v Speaker 3>I still think it's a low probability, right. You know

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<v Speaker 3>how Congress works. The House gets excited or the executive

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<v Speaker 3>gets excited, in the Senate says calm down, right, that's

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<v Speaker 3>the role of the Senate. And while the Republicans control

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<v Speaker 3>the Senate, they don't.

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<v Speaker 4>Have sixty seats. They don't have close to sixty.

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<v Speaker 3>And so listen, I think it would be very smart

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<v Speaker 3>for the United States to take the bitcoin they have

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<v Speaker 3>and maybe add some to it and say we want

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<v Speaker 3>to show.

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<v Speaker 4>The world that we're going to be.

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<v Speaker 3>A technology first country, a crypto digital asset first country.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't necessarily think the dollar needs anything to back

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<v Speaker 3>it up. We have the strongest military in the world,

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<v Speaker 3>we have the dominant economy in the world, and the

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<v Speaker 3>reserve currency we've earned, and to need to back up

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<v Speaker 3>the reserve currency as counterintuitive. And so again, listen, if

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<v Speaker 3>we get the bitcoin reserve, and as a guy that

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<v Speaker 3>owns a lot of bitcoin, I will not cry, and

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<v Speaker 3>if you see me crying, they'll be crocodile tears.

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<v Speaker 4>I think bitcoin heads to five hundred thousand.

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<v Speaker 3>Again, it's a it's a whole different paradigm because it

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<v Speaker 3>forces every other country, and countries are already buying it.

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<v Speaker 3>I've got a dear friend, the guy that actually turned

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<v Speaker 3>me onto bitcoin in twenty thirteen, who's in the Mid

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<v Speaker 3>East right now, and he said he's never seen anything

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<v Speaker 3>like it. He's convincing more people to boy bitcoin in

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<v Speaker 3>the three days he's been there than any time in

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<v Speaker 3>his whole career. And their huge pools of capital, and

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<v Speaker 3>so we're seeing something globally. When Trump advocated in Nashville

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<v Speaker 3>that he was going to be a crypto president, a

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<v Speaker 3>bitcoin president, and now he's the president. Let me tell you,

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<v Speaker 3>other leaders heard that, and so I think we're strapping

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<v Speaker 3>in for what could be an amazing rally.

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<v Speaker 5>I want to get back to your point on you know, hyperinflation, Mike,

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<v Speaker 5>or at least more than four percent. I look at

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<v Speaker 5>a longer term chart of bitcoin, say five years, and

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<v Speaker 5>in that run up post or during COVID, I always

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<v Speaker 5>see an inflation indicator here. I know that there was

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of helicopter money that held out, as well

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<v Speaker 5>as people being home with nothing to do, But to me,

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<v Speaker 5>it was an indication that at least this community saw

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<v Speaker 5>massive inflation coming and that was born out. Do you

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<v Speaker 5>not see the most recent run up as the same

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<v Speaker 5>sort of signal.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, listen, so when the government's printing as much money

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<v Speaker 3>as they I mean, the bitcoin narrative, the only narrative

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<v Speaker 3>really for bitcoin is it's a hard asset in a

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<v Speaker 3>world where you're going to debase fiat currencies. Like that's

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<v Speaker 3>the story. Forget any other story. Like you know, when

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<v Speaker 3>bitcoin they say, well, we're going to be level two's

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<v Speaker 3>and we're going.

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<v Speaker 4>To do n FTS on it. I always think that

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<v Speaker 4>just confuses the story. Eyes glaze over. The story is

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<v Speaker 4>digital gold.

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<v Speaker 3>It is a hard asset that's believed to be a

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<v Speaker 3>hard asset by the people that participate in its community.

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<v Speaker 4>And it's really hard.

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<v Speaker 3>In a world of populism, not just in the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>all over the world for governments to not want to

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<v Speaker 3>spend more, and every single government is spending more than

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<v Speaker 3>they take in.

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<v Speaker 5>Isn't that run up to five hundred thousand? I mean,

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<v Speaker 5>if it happens in the short term without a strategic

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<v Speaker 5>bitcoin reserve, it's going to mean six seven.

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<v Speaker 4>Eight yeah, yeah, personal in faction.

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<v Speaker 3>Let me be really clear, I don't want it to

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<v Speaker 3>happen in the short term unless there's a bitcoin strategic reserve,

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<v Speaker 3>because that's a different story.

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<v Speaker 4>Then it's just a scramble. It's a crazy scramble to

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<v Speaker 4>get the hot commodity.

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<v Speaker 3>If it would happen naturally, it means we're starting to

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<v Speaker 3>have hyperinflation and then we start to lose civil society.

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<v Speaker 3>Like in every country that you look at that experiences

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<v Speaker 3>hyper inflation, the results are really crappy.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike, You know, how soon do you get to five

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<v Speaker 2>hundred thousand. That's kind of a stunning level to think about.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, we're probably going to hit one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>thousand dollars this year if we keep on going at

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<v Speaker 2>this rate.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so listen, the total market cap of gold I

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<v Speaker 3>think is like sixteen trillion, right, and so that's eight

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<v Speaker 3>hundred thousand bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 4>So when does bitcoin become gold?

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<v Speaker 3>Like there's a new gener that cares more about bitcoin

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<v Speaker 3>than they care about gold. I'm turning sixty next week,

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<v Speaker 3>and so I still own a bunch of gold.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm an old guy. But let me tell you, no forty.

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<v Speaker 3>Year olds on gold, no thirty year olds on And

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<v Speaker 3>so as we see this generational shift, like bitcoin should

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<v Speaker 3>match gold within five or ten years, and that gets

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<v Speaker 3>you to eight hundred thousand. That's with current goal prices,

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<v Speaker 3>I think gold's going higher.

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<v Speaker 5>I always fear, you know, Tom Keene, Yeah, every time

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<v Speaker 5>he mentions bitcoin, he's making fun of it, literally every

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<v Speaker 5>time for the past decade exactly. And I always wonder

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<v Speaker 5>if you know, did tribal elders in prehistoric times also

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<v Speaker 5>make fun of their kids for bringing gold into the tent.

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<v Speaker 1>Every month and a half, he has me on surveillance

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<v Speaker 1>radio and just beats me up about bitcoin, which is painful. Mike,

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<v Speaker 1>turning it back to you, first of all, happy early birthday.

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<v Speaker 1>That's exciting. I do want to talk about galaxies approach,

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<v Speaker 1>specifically to the ETF market when it comes to partnerships.

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<v Speaker 1>I cover ETFs. I've watched you partner with Invesco, with

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<v Speaker 1>State Street on different spot ETFs, but also these crypto

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<v Speaker 1>equity ETFs. What is your thinking around partnerships. Why not

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<v Speaker 1>just launched ETFs solely as Galaxy.

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<v Speaker 3>And we're an institutional firm. We don't have giant retail salesforces,

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<v Speaker 3>and those ETFs really end up being sold into the

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<v Speaker 3>high net worth channels, right, and so we don't have

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<v Speaker 3>an army of registered investment advisors, and so we partnered

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<v Speaker 3>to rent those armies. Quite frankly, we think we've got

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<v Speaker 3>knowledge in IP of this space and real understanding of it,

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<v Speaker 3>and our partners you know, partner with us because of that.

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<v Speaker 3>I think this State Street partnership is off to a

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<v Speaker 3>great start. That the the they're just starting to market

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<v Speaker 3>these equity funds, but the returns are.

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<v Speaker 4>Spectaculum, and we started. You could have had a better.

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<v Speaker 3>Start date and so usually one, you know, an ETF

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<v Speaker 3>has great returns in drowsing capitals.

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<v Speaker 4>So we'll see.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, Mike, you know I want to talk about the

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<v Speaker 2>macro before we let you go a little bit more

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<v Speaker 2>because we're talking about bitcoin and the run up. We

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<v Speaker 2>talked about gold a little bit. The dollar in particular

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<v Speaker 2>has had just a stunning run up. It's still up

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<v Speaker 2>even more today. People are thinking that the dollar will

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<v Speaker 2>really become much stronger under a significant tear off policy

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<v Speaker 2>under Trump. But if you believe that the dollar, the

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<v Speaker 2>dollar doesn't have as much value in the future. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>how do you think about this trade?

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<v Speaker 4>Listen. You know.

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<v Speaker 3>There's that expression the tallest pigmy like again you look

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<v Speaker 3>up north. You know, I bought dollar Canada in the

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<v Speaker 3>last few few days. You know, the US economy is

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<v Speaker 3>winning relative to Canada, relative to Europe, relative to China,

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<v Speaker 3>and so I think the dollar is going to be strong,

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<v Speaker 3>certainly through the end of the year, maybe further.

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<v Speaker 4>With this Trump victory.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, normally you go with the breaks after an election,

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<v Speaker 3>and the markets are telling you the dollar is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be strong, and quite frank, our economy is strong, right,

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<v Speaker 3>we have a very strong economy.

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<v Speaker 4>I think one of the things that was kind of

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<v Speaker 4>crazy is Biden.

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<v Speaker 3>And Harris they never really articulated how strong the economy

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<v Speaker 3>was right. Sixty five percent of America thinks we're in

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<v Speaker 3>a recession.

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<v Speaker 4>We're absolutely not in a recession.

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<v Speaker 3>We've got a booming economy with a booming thought market,

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<v Speaker 3>with more job creation than in a four years in

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<v Speaker 3>history almost and so what's happening, which is real was

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<v Speaker 3>seventy percent of Americans didn't like the direction the economy

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<v Speaker 3>is going. The gap between rich and poor still is

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<v Speaker 3>creating such division in this country.

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<v Speaker 4>It's creating that polarization and a lot of people still

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<v Speaker 4>feel left behind.

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<v Speaker 5>We got to leave it there, unfortunately, but I hope

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<v Speaker 5>we can get you back. Hopefully we can get you

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<v Speaker 5>back in the studio when you're here in New York

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<v Speaker 5>and Mike no regrets there.

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<v Speaker 4>From Galaxy Digital