WEBVTT - Short Stuff: Tick tock goes the Doomsday Clock 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:06.920 Hey, and welcome to the short stuff. I'm Josh, there's Chuck, 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:09.640 and we're sitting in for Jerry, who usually sits in 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:12.400 for Dave. So yeah, let's go. 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:13.880 Let's go. 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.480 This is well, it's a follow up to our Doomsday 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:20.479 Clock episode. But it turns out we didn't do a 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:24.040 Doomsday Clock episode. I know we talked about this, so 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:25.960 it might have been in one of when we were 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:29.080 doing videos years ago. I think it was probably in 0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.360 one of those. But I know for a fact the 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:33.640 only reason I would have known about this is because 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:35.360 of this job and you. 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:39.440 That makes me feel good that I wasn't completely unaware 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:41.920 that we had done an episode on doomsteak clocks. 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:45.600 Yeah, it popped up in someplace. But what's the Doomstak clock? 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:46.120 Josh? 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:49.639 So, the doomsday clock is a metaphorical clock that is 0:00:50.200 --> 0:00:55.880 operated or overseen by the Bulletin Atomic Scientists, which was 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.840 a group of scientists who had worked on the Manhattan Project. 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:02.280 They got together and they said, we need to create 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.000 a group that is going to basically keep an eye 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:08.720 on this nuclear proliferation that's starting up. And one of 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.479 the things they did in nineteen forty seven was create 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:18.680 the doomsday clock, and it essentially is this I guess 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:21.800 it's a graphic representation of how close humanity is to 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:26.199 self inflicted disaster like a nuclear. 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:31.360 War, perfectly said elegantly said I see, yeah, So, like 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:33.200 you said, been around since nineteen forty seven. 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:35.600 They set the time every year. 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:37.679 It's sort of a thing where they say, like, all right, 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.080 the time for this year is going to be this, 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:43.280 would they move it forward if something really went down 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:43.920 within a year? 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.360 I think they do it every year, so. 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.240 Like in January they said it, and if like four 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:53.760 months later, like the s goes down, they wouldn't be 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:55.640 like they'd be like, nop, gota wait till next year. 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:58.640 Well, I think two things would happen. Either it would 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.600 be something that they would take into account the next year, yes, 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.040 or the world would end and they wouldn't have anything 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:04.760 to do anyway. 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:09.920 Okay, But again, we're talking about it this year because 0:02:10.000 --> 0:02:11.359 there was and you know, we'll. 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:13.200 Talk about a little bit how it's fluctuated over the years. 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.000 But the reason we bring it up is because this year, 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:19.920 January eighth, twenty twenty five, is when they moved the 0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:22.880 second hand on the clock forward to eighty nine seconds 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:26.080 to midnight, yeah, which means it's the closest that clock 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:29.040 has ever been to midnight since they started. 0:02:29.600 --> 0:02:32.880 Yeah, since they started, or when they started in nineteen 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:35.560 forty seven, when the US and Russia were starting the 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.120 Cold War, creating nukes, testing nukes out in the open 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:43.760 underground in space, there was seven minutes to midnight. We're 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:48.280 now less than two minutes away from midnight because stuff 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:52.360 is just so close to hitting the fan. And we 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:56.680 should say that they've actually moved the clock backward. They've 0:02:56.720 --> 0:03:00.320 moved the secondhand backwards further away from midnight in the past, 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:03.959 and the furthest away it was from midnight was nineteen 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:07.640 ninety one, after the Soviet Union Union dissolved. Uh huh, 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.679 it was all the way back from seventeen minutes to midnight, 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:11.960 which is work. 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:12.200 I think. 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:14.040 I think that's called teeky time. 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:18.000 Yeah, it's like bust out the rum, everybody, exactly. 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:20.320 We're all at seventeen minutes. Yeah. 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:24.000 The closest pre this time in twenty twenty five was 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:27.760 in nineteen fifty three. It was two minutes before midnight, 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:30.920 So we're eighty nine seconds till midnight, And the closest 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.840 previous was two minutes. So that's you know, it's pretty drastic. 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:36.240 And again, you know, I guess we can go ahead 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:38.240 and mention. One of the criticisms of this is that 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.840 it's it's something that just gins up some the critics 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:44.800 will say it's something that just gins up paranoia in 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:48.880 people and like pushes the panic button and. 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.200 What is it even doing? But what is doing? I 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:51.680 think it's a. 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.600 Valuable thing because it just raises awareness every year with people. 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:57.400 It's just another thing to kind of say, hey, like 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:00.720 we're not headed in the right direction as amenity goes. 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:05.080 Yeah. So the first editor of the Bulletin of Atomic 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:09.360 Scientists was Eugene Rabinowitch, and Eugene Rabinowich said that the 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.560 purpose of the doomsday clock is to quote frighten men 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:16.760 into rationality and to basically say like, hey, you know, 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.719 this is where this stuff's out of control. People. You 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.280 need to be paying attention to these things, because they 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:25.960 don't just say we're eighty nine seconds from midnight. See 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:29.600 you next year. They explain what the what the reasoning 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:32.360 is for moving or even not moving or moving back 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:36.080 the secondhand and this year being eighty nine seconds the 0:04:36.120 --> 0:04:38.920 closest we've ever been. They had a whole crop of 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:43.159 issues that go well beyond the nuclear risk that was 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:46.840 originally the clock was originally designed to track. And I say, 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:48.279 we take a break and we come back and talk 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.400 about why we're so close to midnight right now according 0:04:51.440 --> 0:05:16.960 to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:19.480 All right, everyone, we're back. 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:23.640 We're eighty seconds to midnight, not ten minutes to midnight, 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:28.640 like Charles Bunson was and that great movie. 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:29.600 What was it called ten Minutes to Midnight? 0:05:30.000 --> 0:05:32.760 Yeah, you didn't see that one. No, you should check 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:34.920 that out. It's got a couple of choice scenes. It's 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:40.160 about a creepy, uh, serial killer that's he's chasing. 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.000 Oh Bronson's not the creepy serial killer. He's being chased 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:43.880 by a creepy dude. 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.359 Charles Bunsen is always the guy on the hunt for 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:47.000 the bad guy. 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:50.039 Have you ever seen Death Wish three, where like the 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:52.120 group of pos has taken over the neighborhood. 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:53.800 Yeah, all the Death Wish movies. 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:55.479 I mean, the first one was genuinely pretty good, but 0:05:55.520 --> 0:05:58.159 they got really sort of over the top after a while. 0:05:58.400 --> 0:05:59.880 Yeah, it's good though. 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:03.040 It's good. You got the Death Wish pal this is 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:04.120 my favorite impression to do. 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:06.640 But I can't wait till you get your Morgan Freeman down. 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:08.479 Oh no, I don't think so. 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:12.080 All right, So how do we get eighty nine seconds 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:16.240 to midnight? This comes direct from the bulletin website. Some 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:18.320 we can kind of summarize a few of these. I'm 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.080 just going to read outright because it's so like sort 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:22.400 of expertly put. 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:24.360 But the first thing is. 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.520 The ongoing war in Ukraine, and not just that, but 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:32.240 the nuclear risk therein involved in the third year of 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:37.120 that conflict that you know, hopefully it doesn't go that way. 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.599 Maybe things are wrapping up, but at the peak of 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:43.680 this thing, like any weird bad decision could have led 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:45.080 to something like that happening. 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:49.120 Yeah. Same with the Middle East right now that can 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:52.440 spiral out of control and suck in nuclear powers against 0:06:52.480 --> 0:06:56.240 one another. That's a nuclear risk for sure. And then 0:06:56.839 --> 0:07:00.000 we're back to increasing the size of our nuclear arsenal, 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:01.680 which is a reverse of what we were doing in 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:05.600 the eighties and nineties where we were getting rid of them. 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:08.920 That's not a good sign. And then one other thing too, 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:11.960 and this is definitely new countries that hadn't had nukes 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:14.200 before were basically like, well, we're never going to have 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.240 nukes because that's just not the way things are. It's 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:20.720 changed geopolitically, and now countries are starting to think about 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:23.960 developing their own nuclear programs, where if you have more 0:07:24.000 --> 0:07:26.640 countries with more nukes, you have that much more risk. 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:28.160 Yeah, for sure. 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:32.680 Climate change is the next thing they have listed, and 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:34.440 you know, this one kind of speaks for itself. 0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:35.720 We don't need to beat a dead horse. 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:40.640 But their take basically is that global greenhouse gas emissions 0:07:40.680 --> 0:07:44.720 are still rising. No one is doing enough to combat this. 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:48.640 This is bringing on extreme weather and climate changed events 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.880 or climate change influence events, and it's affecting people all 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.800 over the world. And even if we're growing things like 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.560 solar and wind, it's just not fast enough and not 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:01.880 nearly an enough to make a dent and the damage 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:02.720 that's being done. 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:07.920 Right. Also, there's the biological arena, as they put. 0:08:07.760 --> 0:08:10.920 It the boy, This one is very scary. 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:12.800 That's the most mucisy arena. 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:18.560 Yeah, but obviously coming out of COVID and with avian 0:08:18.880 --> 0:08:22.680 the avian flu now expanding you know, to farm animals, 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:27.680 to dairy products, human cases, all this stuff is very 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.000 scary and the point of this episode isn't to scare 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.720 the cred out of everybody, but it's hard to read 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:35.360 the stuff and not get the crud scared out of 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:36.000 you sometimes. 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:40.280 Yeah, also, don't leave AI on the sidelines. In their 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:45.240 disruptive Technology part, they were like, like, yes, AI. They 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:48.199 didn't get into the existential threat that AI itself pose. 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:51.160 They more looked at it like, hey, some militaries are 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:56.080 starting to incorporate AI in their like battlefield decision making, 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.719 Like we're a step away from AIS deciding whether to 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.400 kill or not kill and then eventually giving AIS control 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:06.400 over our nuclear arsenals. That's not a direction we want 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:09.600 to be going. And then the whole thing, this is 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:12.520 the reason why all these things that have been around 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:14.880 for a while or have been developing for a while 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:19.840 have been accelerated to eighty nine seconds from midnight because 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:25.120 of the threat multiplier of misinformation and disinformation and conspiracy theories. 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:27.640 Yeah, and this is the one I wanted to read 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:32.000 a part or two from this because it just kind 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:34.640 of speaks volumes of things. They really put it very succinctly. 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:39.080 Spread of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories that degrade the 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:43.400 communication ecosystem increasingly blur the lines between truth and falsehood. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.240 And then they talk about AI making it even you know, 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:48.240 we've talked about deep fake video and stuff like that, 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:52.080 like making all that stuff just so much easier, And 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:55.200 then this final line is really really good. The battered 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:58.679 information landscape is also producing leaders who discount science and 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:02.280 endeavor to suppress fe free speech, and human rights, compromising 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:06.199 the fact based public discussions that are required to combat 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:10.160 the enormous threats facing the world. So like, all of 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:14.000 the problems that we've been listing are bad enough, and 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.840 then when you've got disinformation and conspiracy theories and misinformation 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:21.199 thrown on top of that, and AI exacerbating all that, 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.280 that's when it's like they're moving that clock as close 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:25.600 to midnight as they've ever been. 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.640 Yeah, And the reason why is because people would be 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.920 under that circumstance, they're being led away from paying attention 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:37.240 to the stuff the doomsday clock is warring against. And 0:10:37.280 --> 0:10:39.640 that just makes it that much riskier too, because we 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.000 have to be paying attention to it, whether you like 0:10:42.080 --> 0:10:45.800 it or not. For some reason, when I was researching 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.120 this today, I was like, this is striking me as 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:53.160 a little ridiculous, and like, I get the point of it, 0:10:53.200 --> 0:10:56.160 and I think it is noble and worthy, but there's 0:10:56.200 --> 0:11:00.880 also some like real, I don't know, real criticisms of it. 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:04.040 And I found one piece by a guy named Stephen 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:09.880 Johnson on Life Hacker and he interviewed Lawrence Krause, who's 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:13.679 a physicist and a member of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientist. Sorry, 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:17.040 the New Republic interviewed Kraus and he said, it's not scientific. 0:11:17.080 --> 0:11:19.040 It's a number that's arrived at by a group of 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:22.640 people exploring each of the questions and having a huge 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:26.280 amount of discussion and ultimately convergence on a number. That 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:31.240 number is frankly arbitrary. And that's true. You have to 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:34.079 remember it's a metaphor. There's no way to measure it. Okay, 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.400 for eighty nine seconds from midnight right now? How much 0:11:36.440 --> 0:11:39.760 longer is the world going to last? And the big 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:44.160 problem with it, I think is national geographic put it. 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:48.400 If everything's a crisis, nothing's a crisis. So before the 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:53.640 whole thing was created to say this one thing, nuclear proliferation, 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.880 this is what we're warning about. Now you've got climate change, 0:11:56.960 --> 0:12:03.080 AI avian flu information. It's just like being piled on, 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:07.160 and I think it's really diluted the point and the 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:08.600 pointedness of the whole thing. 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.040 Yeah maybe, but that's also the world we're living in 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:12.559 right now. 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:16.000 Yeah, but it makes it so easy to just be like, oh, well, 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:18.640 I give up, I'm going to guess, so pay attention 0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:22.600 to I don't know, flowers versus zombies. Do people play? 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:25.920 Let Still, I know that was the thing. I think 0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:28.280 it was at some point unless I had a fever dream. 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:31.400 Uh well, you didn't have a fever dream. One thing, 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:35.120 whether or not you agree with the doomsday clock or not. 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:37.679 One thing we can I can recommend because you're too 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:41.319 humble too. It's a little limited podcast series called The 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:43.440 End of the World with Josh Clark. That way you 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:46.360 can really learn something and take a deep dive into 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.120 real existential threats that face humanity. 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:51.280 Thanks Chuck, I appreciate that. 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.679 Holds up still great? I imagine I haven't gone back 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:55.400 and listen to it again. 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:56.760 I bet it still holds up though. 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.719 Yeah. Well, because one of the number one rules and 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.920 show businesses leave them wanting more, I say short stuff 0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:06.480 is out. 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.920 Stuff you should know is a production of iHeartRadio. For 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:14.199 more podcasts, My heart Radio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts, 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:16.160 or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.