WEBVTT - 2025 NCAA Tournament: FINAL FOUR Best Bets & Predictions (Ep. 688) 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:04.560 Hello, everybody, Welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, 0:00:04.640 --> 0:00:08.080 joined today by Terrell Furman Junior and by our guest PJ. 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:10.520 Class Or. It's the Save three folks running it back. 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:13.600 After last week we talked about the Sweet sixteen and 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:15.920 the Elite Eight, we are now talking about the Final Four. 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:19.439 We have this historic Final four, all four one seeds, 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:21.840 the strongest final four at least according to the metrics 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:25.160 like Ken Pom, basically that we've ever seen. I know 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.920 that every single round it feels like we're saying, Okay, 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:29.680 let's get to the madness, let's get to the fun, 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:31.880 let's get to the real, big epic matchups, and then 0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:34.600 the best teams just keep winning, kind of running away. 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:35.960 In a lot of cases we had. We had some 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:37.920 really good games over the weekend, but still kind of 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:40.519 waiting for that kind of epic feel. I think we're 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:43.560 gonna get that with this final foward just incredible, incredible games. Obviously, 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.280 we've got Auburn against Florida, We've got Duke against Houston. 0:00:46.280 --> 0:00:48.680 We're gonna break it all down. Trell, how are you 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:51.040 feeling after the Sweet sixteen and Elite Eight? Where were 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:52.640 your big takeaways from that weekend. 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:57.320 I'm still very confident. I have sang the praises of 0:00:57.360 --> 0:01:01.360 Florida and Houston this entire time. Houston has continued not 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.360 to let me down, and I mean the buckling down 0:01:04.920 --> 0:01:08.240 and Calvin Sampson, So when this team felt like that 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:11.440 it could be over and this could be another moment, 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.000 it wasn't, and he got this team through it. Excellent 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:18.320 play on the out of bounds play. I mean, they've 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:22.319 been able to handle business. They were slaughtering Tennessee at 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:26.440 half like I wasn't even considering anything else there. I'm 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:28.559 still on the Houston and Florida wave. I'm kno getting 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:32.600 off this train. Houston Florida in National Championship. I'm ready. 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:34.600 We'll talk about it more, but I'm ready. 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:39.399 Yeah, PJ. That Houston performance against the Tennessee quite the demolition. 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:41.679 The game gets predued, like Terrell was mentioning that add 0:01:41.720 --> 0:01:43.520 of bounds play at the end of the game was 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:45.679 one of the better games that we've had, you know, 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:49.320 the tournament so far. Once they got passed Gonzaga, who 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:51.280 I was trying to kind of differentiate and pick them 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:53.120 in the bracket. Once it got past to Kenzagga, I 0:01:53.160 --> 0:01:55.720 think we all felt pretty strongly about Houston making a 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.200 run to the final four. It after that point, obviously, 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.240 like Florida has had some close ish calls on this run, 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:04.080 but they still just look really, really good. And you know, 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.840 one of the hottest teams in basketball, Duke the best 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:09.560 team in the sport, I think lest I would certainly say, 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:11.960 seems pretty obvious. And then Auburn just just keeps winning 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:14.240 as the number on overall seeds, so like really exciting. 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:15.400 What were your big takeaways, PJ. 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.119 Yeah, I mean, it's obviously been a chalky tournament so far. 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:21.840 We got all four one seeds in the final four. 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:24.920 But my takeaway is that it feels like everybody's talking 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:27.720 about how chalky it is. But outside of Duke, you know, 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:31.160 all these teams have had their scares, right. Houston was 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:34.720 challenged by Purduing Gonzagai, like you guys were saying, Florida 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:37.680 by Yukon and Texas Tech. Auburn needed a big second 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:42.440 half run against Michigan. You're trailing Creighton at halftime. So yes, 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:44.679 these are the four best teams. These are gonna be 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.360 two epnic games, but they have had some challenges to 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:51.440 get here, and certainly Florida. You know that comeback against 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:57.480 Texas Tech was impressive. But I'm excited for these games. Yeah, guys, 0:02:57.520 --> 0:03:00.680 I mean, Ken Palm started in nineteen ninety six, and 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:05.640 these four teams are for the top ten highest rated team. 0:03:05.560 --> 0:03:09.360 Wild Oh wow, Me and Kim Palm are the same age, 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:10.720 me and you both. 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.040 Through so these so these are four of the ten 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:14.560 best teams in Terrell's lifetime. 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:16.920 Ninety six was a great year. I'd be shy to 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.040 tell people ninety six was a great year. 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.239 So yeah, I mean they're four of the top ten 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:25.040 highest rated teams, and all four of these teams are 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:28.200 top ten in offense and top ten in defense. So 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:31.799 it's just it's it's gonna be epic And hopefully these 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:33.320 two games live up to the hype, and I think 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:33.840 that they will. 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.000 Yeah, I mean, really, these three games, if you include 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.280 the title game, you know, after we get the winner, 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:42.320 like it's hard to imagine. The only world in which 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:46.280 I think we get duds, truthfully, is Duke just being 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:48.840 a step ahead of everybody else in almost like the 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.600 last couple of years of Yukon, where we keep waiting 0:03:51.640 --> 0:03:54.120 for them to stub their toe at some point and 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:56.480 face a challenge, and it just never happens. You'd get 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:57.920 the end of the tournament. It's like, well, Duke was 0:03:57.960 --> 0:03:59.600 just the best team by a mile the whole way. 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:01.640 I'm not saying I think that will happen, but that's 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:03.560 the only world in which I don't think we're getting 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:06.880 three epic games here. So we'll see where it goes. 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:09.280 I did notice that when you're talking about Florida facing 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:12.520 some you know, difficulties, you mentioned Yukon and Texas Tech. 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:14.480 You didn't mention the first half against Maryland, which was 0:04:14.480 --> 0:04:16.920 a very close game. I will point out as well, 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.200 we could ignore the second. 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:20.799 Half of Maryland first half cash. 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:24.599 Yeah, Yeah, that was That was an interesting one to watch, 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:26.600 especially with everything going on with Willard, which we are 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:28.600 not going to talk about because I need to maintain 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:30.600 my sanity. I do want to let everybody know that 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:32.960 if you want to boost your final four bets, New 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.839 FanDuel customers can bet five dollars and win two hundred 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:38.320 dollars in bonus bets. If that first bet hits, just 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:41.760 head to bettingpros dot com slash FanDuel to get started. 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:45.080 That's bettingpros dot Com, slash FanDuel and make your plays 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:49.600 on FanDuel today, guys. Let's start with the left side 0:04:49.720 --> 0:04:53.279 of the remaining bracket. It's number one Auburn. It's number 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:55.440 one Florida. It's the one versus four if you look 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:58.719 at the overall kind of s curve seating lines, but 0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:01.640 they're the two number one. Obviously, we have seen this 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:05.360 matchup before, given what we saw in the SEC this year. PJ, 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:09.039 as an SEC connoisseur, as a fan of Alabama, I 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.240 will start with you here. When you start thinking about 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:15.520 Auburn and Florida, what's the first thing that comes to mind? 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:18.200 Is it that you really like aside on the total. 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:20.880 Is it that you really like laying the points or 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.400 taking the points? Is it that you expect this to 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.480 play out similarly to the matchups we saw in the 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:28.480 SEC this season. What's the first thing when you think 0:05:28.520 --> 0:05:30.080 of these two teams going against each other that you 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:30.559 think about? 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:34.040 My thought is that if this game is close late, 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:36.800 I trust Florida because Florida has Walter Clayton Junior and 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:37.520 Auburn doesn't. 0:05:37.600 --> 0:05:38.599 That's that's my thought. 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:41.120 The way that I'm betting this game, though, you guys 0:05:41.200 --> 0:05:43.599 is I think you bet it live. These two teams 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.000 have showed throughout the regular season, they've showed throughout the 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:48.680 tournament two that they can go on runs at any 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:50.080 given point in the game. You know, they could have 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:52.520 a sluggish first half, they could be trailing in the 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:54.960 second half, and then they just go on these eighteen 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:56.960 to four. We saw Auburn go on to seventeen to 0:05:56.960 --> 0:06:00.359 nothing run against Michigan, and that's what I want to 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.839 bet into. You know, Florida two and a half, I 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.520 think that's a little too high. I feel like, honestly, 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.400 it should be closer to a pick them. But the 0:06:07.440 --> 0:06:10.400 perception around these two teams right now, and with Florida 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:12.520 having Clayton and all the big shots that he's hit, 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:15.440 I see why they're two and a half point favorite. 0:06:15.480 --> 0:06:17.880 But I'm just I think one of these teams at 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:19.520 some point in the game is going to be up 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.240 by double digits, and when that happens, I want to 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:23.840 bet the other side because I think it's going to 0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:25.040 be close and it's going. 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:26.040 To come down to the wire. 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:29.080 It is interesting, you know, when they played on February eighth, 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.480 Auburn was a nine and a half point favorite. Elijah 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:35.640 Martin didn't play in the game. Now eleven point favorite 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:36.839 was that high? I thought it was like nine and 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:37.440 a half te point. 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:42.640 Oh, I wouldn't know. I didn't bet Florida. 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:44.559 So eleven point favorite. Now they're two and a half 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:46.480 point favorite against Auburn. 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:47.840 I mean, we were talking. 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:50.000 About Auburn is the team to beat in the tournament 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.800 like three weeks ago, a month ago, and now they 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:56.039 have the largest odds to win it all at plus 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:58.880 five twenty five or whatever it may be. So I 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:01.760 think there's value on Alburn. But Clayton just terrifies me 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:03.800 because if the game's close, like, that's the guy that 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:05.640 you want with the ball in his hands. 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:07.760 So I think it's a great game to bet live. 0:07:07.800 --> 0:07:09.840 You know, whenever we get these games with a short 0:07:10.040 --> 0:07:12.880 spread and a high total, you expect there to be 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:14.360 a lot of points. You expect there to be a 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:16.360 lot of lead changes, both teams to kind of go 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:19.120 on their runs. So that's that's how I'm gonna bet it. 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:20.440 Just wait for one of these teams to go up 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:22.840 double digits and then I'll bet the other side. If 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:25.720 you had to maybe pick the game, though, I'd probably 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:27.320 go with Florida, man, just because I think it's going 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:29.520 to be close, and I just trust Walter Clayton Junior 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.160 to find a way to win the Gators the game. 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:35.520 Terrell, you've talked already on this episode about how you 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.480 know you see this as in Florida Houston, and how 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:39.880 you've been vettanam Florida. 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:41.680 I was supposed to say that to the end. 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:43.840 Well, I just bring that up to say, so it's 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:46.080 clear where you're going with the game. What do you 0:07:46.080 --> 0:07:48.640 think about from the betting angle? Do you have thoughts 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:51.000 on the total? Just looking at the spread, it sounds 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:52.760 like you would like Florida, But did you have any 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:54.520 betting specific angles to this one? 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:58.480 With the conference games, I like backing the undering conference 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:01.160 games in the tournament. I think that familiarity that you 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:03.560 have with the team and the time that you have 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:06.600 to prepare. You're also putting this in San Antonio, in 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:11.320 that filthy, stinking dome that they're playing in, and you know, 0:08:11.400 --> 0:08:15.120 it's all weird and the death perception of being on 0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:17.720 the court with all the fans and all that. Like, yeah, 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.720 I can see myself and taught myself into an under here. 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:22.120 Am I gonna do it? 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:22.520 No? 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:24.880 Probably not. I'm probably just gonna put anything that I 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:26.880 thought that I was gonna put on the under all 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:30.760 on Florida, because, I mean, the issue with Walter Clayton 0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:34.600 Junior is something that we like in the military, and 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:39.600 we call it a nuclear deterrent because everybody knows I 0:08:39.640 --> 0:08:42.959 have Walton Clayton Junior in my hip pocket just ready 0:08:42.960 --> 0:08:45.920 to use them, and everybody is sitting there like, all right, 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:49.000 let's not antagonize them so that we don't pull out 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:52.000 Walter Clayton Junior. Let's do everything we can to make 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.800 sure Walton Clayton Junior does not get out into this game. 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:58.319 And unfortunately, what that's gonna do is that's gonna actually 0:08:58.360 --> 0:09:00.640 play in a Florida's actual game plan, which is playing 0:09:00.679 --> 0:09:04.240 through the Bigs. Condon had a big game that last 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:07.200 time around when they went on the road, on the 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:09.920 road to the place where everybody was terrified to play 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:12.240 basketball this year in the jungle, and got to win 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:15.040 by double digits as an eleven point dog. Like, I 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:17.440 think that the Bigs are gonna have something to say, Condon, 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.120 shemy Lou. I think that they are gonna be really 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:21.839 really big for them in this game, and at the 0:09:21.920 --> 0:09:23.559 end of the game, we may not be talking about 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:25.760 Wart Clayton Junior, but we're gonna be talking about those 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:28.120 bigs and how those bigs really really aided them and 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:29.040 helped them get this win. 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:31.760 Do you guys think, like, just in looking at these 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:34.120 two matchups, setting aside who you think is gonna win, 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:37.840 are you more excited about Auburn Florida or about Duke Houston? 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:39.680 Is there like one of these matchups that you like 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:42.160 are really jazzed I mean they're both great, obviously, but 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:44.440 is there one PG that you are like more jazzed 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:44.880 up for? 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:47.360 Oh, Duke Houston, Because I think the winner of that 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:51.000 game wins the national Championship, and I just want to 0:09:51.040 --> 0:09:53.800 see I want to see how Duke looks against that 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.439 Houston defense, right. I also want to see how Houston's 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.719 offense looks against that Duke defense, because we think it 0:09:59.840 --> 0:10:02.640 do Duke and obviously they're star freshmen and how good 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:05.360 those guys are offensively. But I think it was an 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:07.720 eye opener to all of us to watch how they 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:11.960 limited Alabama's offense to only sixty five points, So you 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.560 know that that'll be the big topic of discussion, right, 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:18.440 how does Duke's offense look against Houston's defense, because both 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:20.920 of those units are so great. But I want to 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:25.320 see how Houston's offense looks against Duke's defense because Houston's 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:27.559 one of the best three point shooting teams in the country. 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.960 And Duke just did a great job against Alabama limiting 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:34.679 them eight for thirty from downtown. So to me, that'll, uh, 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:38.160 that's the game. I can't wait to watch him. I'm 0:10:38.200 --> 0:10:41.480 looking forward to seeing that matchup on that side. And 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:44.280 also keep in mind, you know, Duke had this stigma 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:47.680 around like these John Shire teams. They were kind of soft, right, 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:49.880 Like if you if they went up against a team 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:51.880 that could like punch him in the mouth, that was 0:10:51.960 --> 0:10:53.120 kind of the way to beat them. 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:54.160 We don't talk. 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:58.040 About that Duke team this way, and we're we're gonna 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:00.560 we're gonna find out real quick about their toughness Houston. 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:02.360 So that's the game I'm looking more forward to. 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:06.000 Terrell. Do you feel similarly about being more interested in 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:06.720 Duke Houston? 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.640 Yeah, yeah, I always can. You know, I always love 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:12.720 to see the Duke Ky's fall flat on their face, 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:14.880 So I'm perfectly good with that. I think, really honestly, 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:21.000 you could probably scrap the first thirty five minutes of 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:23.920 both games for me and give me the last five 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:26.360 minutes of both games because I get to either watch 0:11:26.400 --> 0:11:29.040 Walt Clayton junior go off in the last five minutes 0:11:29.080 --> 0:11:31.360 of the game and a great game there, or I 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.240 get to see what Duke looks like and yet another 0:11:34.280 --> 0:11:36.760 close game. Duke has not been good in close games 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.240 this year. Well, how did Clemson beat them? I keep 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:41.400 going back to the Clemson game because that's how I 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.400 forecasted the way for you to beat Duke. You make 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:46.400 it an ugly game, You muck it up, you play 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:49.320 defense that matches their defense, and you give yourself a 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:51.400 chance with the possession in the last couple of minutes 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.160 of the game, and you force them into putting the 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:57.560 ball into their freshman star players' hands and hope for 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.320 a turnover. Clemson was able to get the turnover and 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:02.199 they were able to steal their win. I think that's 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:04.560 how Houston does it. Here again, we're gonna put that 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:07.640 pressure on Cooper flag and yes, he is a great player, 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:09.640 but at the end of the day, he's still young. 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.080 He's still a freshman and this is the grandest stage 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.440 of them all, and Kevin Sampson and this team is 0:12:15.720 --> 0:12:18.760 overly due to make it past this stage here. So 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:21.480 I think that that's what I'm really really looking forward 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:23.319 to the last couple of minutes of the game, because 0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:25.679 I really want to see if you get Duke into 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.000 a close game, how are they able to respond? Do 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:29.960 they have that pedigree to take it to the next 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.319 step and win a close game? Because anybody, well not anybody, 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.280 but they've shown that they can beat teams by twenty plus, 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.240 But can you beat a team if they bring you 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:40.400 into a tie game with thirty seconds to go? 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:41.960 What do you think about that angle? Pg? I mean 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.319 Terrell is right in games where Cooper flag is healthy, 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:45.960 we have not seen this Duke team in a close 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:47.000 game in almost two. 0:12:46.800 --> 0:12:49.839 Months exactly, which is why you know I've been saying 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.440 on my show all week, if you like Duke, I 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:54.960 just bet him five and a half. If you like Houston, 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:56.960 I just bet him on the money line. For everything 0:12:57.320 --> 0:13:00.120 that Terrell was saying, if it's a close game, I 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.480 would trust Houston more in that scenario because that's how 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.079 Houston plays. You know, they play at the fourth slowest 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.000 pace in the country. Their defense is so great, they 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:11.320 wont a half court game. They want to execute in 0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.760 the final minutes. They want to lean on their toughness 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.240 and how well coached they are, and all those sorts 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.840 of things. Duke, I mean, this is what we would 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.000 see out of all those great and Zaga teams that 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.079 Mark Few had, right, they would go to two and 0:13:24.160 --> 0:13:26.480 a half months not playing anybody. You get him in 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:28.840 a tight game in the tournament and then they fold 0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:31.960 and that's how they lose. So I agree with Terrell 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.800 and yeah, I think if you like Houston, look, obviously 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.400 five and a half, that's a good amount of points 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:38.600 where you can bet that. I think if you like them, though, 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.400 you just take him out right. I think if they cover, 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.880 they win the game. And if Duke wins, I think 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:43.720 they cover this group. 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.520 Yeah, just looking at the d want experience free troster, 0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:51.559 Houston averaged over two and a half years of experience 0:13:51.679 --> 0:13:54.640 is pretty high. It's top forty in the country. Duke 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:57.679 is a little under two years. That's one hundred and 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:01.280 twenty eighth in the country. So you know, definitely a 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:05.440 gap there. Do you guys see a coaching mismatch in 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.040 either of these because in both of these matchups it's 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:10.720 a veteran coach who has been around for a long time, 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:13.160 you know, Calvin Sampson on one end, Bruce Pearl on 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.880 the other end, going up against kind of a young 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.679 gun in their first final four you know, John Shire 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.760 obviously played there as a player, and Todd Golden on 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.440 the other side. So in either of these matchups, do 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:26.880 you guys give a coaching edge to either side? 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.160 Terrell, Well, I say Florida because I always just kind 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.440 of expect Bruce Pearl just kind of crapped a bit 0:14:32.560 --> 0:14:34.560 at some point and it's kind of over there, So 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.040 I'll give it to Florida there. But that I think 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.040 Shire is really good. And I think that's the part 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:44.360 that makes me very very concerned about the Dookies making 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:47.200 a run and potentially winning a national championship is because 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.760 Shire is really really good coach. He has the buy 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:51.720 in of the team, the buying of the program, and 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:53.920 that's what happens when you go get your guy, Like 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:56.239 when you have your guy, you know who the successor 0:14:56.360 --> 0:14:58.720 is you've been playing in this moment like they were 0:14:58.720 --> 0:15:01.440 able to do that, and he's getting his flowers now 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:04.080 in this first final four, so I'm still going to 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.360 rock with Sampson, but I think it's clearly it might 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:08.080 be a little bit of a bigger edge because again, 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:11.040 I just expect Bruce Pearl at some point crap a. 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:12.400 Bit, PJ. What do you think about that? Do you 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.640 see a coaching mismatch in either of these games? 0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:17.880 Not really, I agree with with Terrell. 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.280 I think Calvin Sampson is the best coach that's left, 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:22.680 and I think he's better than Shire, but I think 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:25.560 Shire is really good, So I don't really see that 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.560 as like a big coaching mismatch or anything like that. 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:30.480 And then in the other game, like you just have 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:33.640 a great storyline. When Bruce Pearl first got the job 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:37.840 with Auburn in twenty fourteen, he hired Todd Golden from 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:41.760 Columbia to be his first director of basketball operations, so 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:43.040 they know each. 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:44.200 Other extremely well. 0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:46.600 He really helped him get his jump start, and then 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.240 Golden went to San Francisco and then obviously went to 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:52.680 Florida after that. So I think all four coaches that 0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:55.480 are left are really really good. They're all looking for 0:15:55.560 --> 0:15:59.000 their first national title. But the familiarity there with Pearl 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:00.920 and Golden, I think is interesting. I don't really see 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:02.680 a mismatch though, in any of these games. 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.120 If you like betting on basketball, then join Terrell Furman 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:09.120 on the Fast Break Bets podcast your daily dose of 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:12.400 basketball betting picks. Tune in every weekday for your rapid 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.880 fire fix and all things basketball. Check out the Fast 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.920 Break Bets podcast on the Betting Pros YouTube channel or 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.800 wherever you listen to podcast. Guys, let's say our just 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.360 a couple other betting angles before we get out of here. 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.400 Obviously a little bit of a shorter episode because there's 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.480 not that many games to hit on. Are there other 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:30.920 betting angles, PJ that you're interested in? You talked about 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.080 Walter Clayton, maybe him as like most outstanding player in 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:36.880 the tournament? Obviously Cooper Flagg, I mean jan I Breuom 0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:38.320 if Favor makes the title game. There's a lot of 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:41.520 really good players, you know clearly that are still playing 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.440 and that's why these teams are here. But do you 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:45.400 have any thoughts on that or any other angles on 0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:47.120 this one besides who wins the games? 0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:48.200 Yeah? 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:52.000 Most outstanding player really no thoughts for me, you know, 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.320 I think if Florida wins it, it's probably gonna be Clayton. 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.120 I think if Duke wins it, it probably will be Flag. 0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.000 I think Procter and Canipple are both intriguing as well. 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:00.320 Well. 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:03.119 If you like Auburn, I would actually go with Pettiford 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.400 rather than Broom. I think, you know, Pettiford's the guy 0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:08.840 who's probably gonna take and make a lot of the 0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:11.840 big shots for Auburn if they end up advancing Houston. 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:14.000 You would probably think Crier would be the same. But 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.440 we certainly saw Sharp hit a bunch of big shots 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.480 on that second half against Tennessee. So I mean, look, 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:21.320 this is why all these teams are here. They're all 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.280 so good. They got multiple options. I think the best 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.639 I feel about those. If you like Auburn, you go 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.040 with Pettiford over Broom. I mean, you're getting a way 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.320 better price, and we know, you know you win with 0:17:31.359 --> 0:17:33.520 guard play in March, and he's gonna be the guy 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:36.000